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How America's Diversity Explosion Is Changing the Political Landscape

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How America's Diversity Explosion Is Changing the Political Landscape DIVERSITY/VOTING How America’s Diversity Explosion Is Changing the Political Landscape By William H. Frey The sweeping diversity explosion now underway in the U.S. will continue to impact the political landscape as the racial profiles of the electorate and voters continue to change.1 Testament to this is the election of the nation’s first black president, Barack Obama, which can be attributed, in large part, to a growing minority electorate both nationally and in previously Republican-leaning Sun Belt states. This article reviews the nation’s new racial demographic shifts with an eye to how it has changed the electorate and outcomes of the past three presidential elections, and suggesting what it may mean for the future. Rising Racial Diversity of this gap for Hispanics and Asians is attributable Among the U.S. Population and Voters to two factors. First, compared with whites, more The increased growth of new minorities—Hispanics Hispanics in America are under 18 years of age and Asians and persons of two or more races—has and are, therefore, too young to vote. Second, even begun to make its mark on the nation’s electorate among those Hispanics and Asians who are old by reducing the white portion of total voters. As enough to vote, a smaller share have become citi- recently as the 1980 presidential election, racial zens, even if they reside in the United States legally. minorities comprised less than 10 percent of voters, As a consequence, the portion of all Hispanics compared with fully 26 percent in 2012. Yet the and Asians who are eligible to vote—citizens age minority share of voters was still lower than its share 18 and above—constituted only about one-half or of the total U.S. population, which was 37 percent. less of their total populations. (See Figure A.) This The reason for this discrepancy between the contrasts with blacks and whites, of whom 69 per- racial makeup of voters and the population might be cent and 79 percent of their respective populations termed a “voter representation gap.” A large part were eligible to vote. Figure A: Share of Population Eligible to Vote, 2012 Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians 20% 22% 1% 27% 34% 44% 52% 79% 4% 69% 26% 22% Under Non-Citizen, Eligible Age 18 Age 18+ Voters Source: Current Population Survey, November 2012 Supplement, from William H. Frey, Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America (Brookings Institution Press, 2015). The Council of State Governments 267 DIVERSITY/VOTING Figure B: U.S. Total and Eligible Voter Population by Race-Ethnicity, 2004–2012 100% 2% 4% 5% 3% 4% 4% 3% All others 5% 6% 8% 7% 8% 9% 11% 14% Asians 16% 11% 17% 12% 80% 12% 12% 13% 12% Hispanics 12% 12% 12% Blacks 60% Whites 40% 79% 75% 76% 73% 71% 74% 68% 65% 63% 20% 0% 2004 2008 2012 2004 2008 2012 2004 2008 2012 U.S. Total Eligible Voter Voters Population Population Source: Current Population Survey November 2004, 2008, and 2012 Supplements from William H. Frey, Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America (Brookings Institution Press, 2015). Figure B illustrates the lag in translating the His- despite constituting more than twice that share of panic and Asian representation in the total popu- the population. Whites, on the other hand, are far lation (left panel) to the population that is eligible more highly represented among voters than in the to vote (middle panel). For example, the Hispanic population as a whole. portion of the total population increased from 14 to 17 percent between the 2004 and 2012 elections. Higher Minority Turnout Impacted Yet, its portion of eligible voters increased from the 2008 and 2012 Popular Vote just 8 to 11 percent, respectively. In contrast, whites Although the nation’s electorate still lags behind are more highly represented among eligible voters its population with respect to its racial makeup, compared with the total population (71 percent the minority population made the difference in versus 63 percent in 2012). electing Barack Obama in the 2008 and 2012 The representation gap for Hispanics and presidential elections. A key reason for this was Asians that existed between the total popula- the improved turnout of racial minorities, which tion and eligible voters is even further widened magnified their clout among voters. among actual voters (Figure B, third panel). This Minority turnout is important for Democrats in is because, compared with whites and blacks, fewer presidential elections. Since the mid-1960s, minorities Hispanics and Asians who are eligible to vote actu- (as a whole) favored Democrats and whites favored ally show up at the polls. Because of their recent Republicans for president in the national popular residence status or lack of information, Hispanics vote. The black population has shown the most and Asians are less likely to register to vote and consistent voting patterns, favoring Democratic to cast ballots. Thus, Hispanics represented only 8 presidential candidates since the 1936 second-term percent of voters in the 2012 presidential election election of Franklin D. Roosevelt. While not as 268 The Book of the States 2016 DIVERSITY/VOTING Figure C: Voter Turnout by Race in the 2004, 2008, and 2012 Presidential Elections 70% 2004 2008 2012 67% 66% 65% 66% 60% 64% 60% 50% 50% 47% 48% 48% 47% 40% 44% 30% 20% 10% 0% Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Note: Turnout rate is defined as percent of eligible voters who voted Source: Current Population Survey November 2004, 2008, and 2012 Supplements from William H. Frey, Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America (Brookings Institution Press, 2015). strongly favoring Democrats as blacks, Hispanics the sizes of minority gains rose to 21 million, and and Asians also have voted primarily for Demo- then 23 million votes, respectively. Meanwhile, cratic candidates in recent elections. Republicans showed a decline in white gains, down The higher voter turnout of minorities in 2008 to just 12 million in 2008, before registering an and 2012 is shown in Figure C. Black voter turnout insufficient gain of 18 million votes in 2012. increased to a point where nearly two-thirds of Obama’s continued gains in the minority vote black eligible voters cast ballots in 2008 and 2012. were attributable, in part, to the rise in the portion Along with the decline in white voter turnout, the of eligible voters who were minorities (shown in 2012 black voter turnout exceeded white voter Figure B). But it was also attributable to higher turnout for the first time since such statistics have turnout rates for minorities—increasing their been recorded. Although lower than voter turn- share of all voters—as well as the stronger ten- out for blacks, Hispanic and Asian turnouts were dency for these minorities to vote Democratic.2 higher in both Obama elections than in 2004. This higher turnout among all three groups enlarged Race and the Nation’s Battleground States the size and effect of these voters on the final elec- The increased minority influence on the popular tion outcome. vote outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 elections were Obama’s two victories followed the 2004 election magnified in the Electoral College vote outcomes in which Republican George W. Bush was reelected as the nation’s racial demographic shifts dispersed by 3 million votes—gaining a net of 16 million white across regions and states. In particular, the Sun votes and losing 13 million minorities. In the sub- Belt region is becoming part of an enlarged battle- sequent two elections, Obama versus John McCain ground of states as minorities become increasingly in 2008 and Obama versus Mitt Romney in 2012, represented there. The Council of State Governments 269 DIVERSITY/VOTING Figure D: Minority Percent of Eligible Voters, November 2012 Percent Minority: Under 5% 5%–14% Dominant Minority: 15%–24% Hispanics 25%–34% Blacks 35% and over Neither Source: Current Population Survey. Figure D portrays the racial makeup of eligible Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, though their voters by state at the time of the 2012 election. much smaller Hispanic populations are rising as in Clearly, racial minorities make up a sizable presence other parts of that region. in many states including those not in traditional Although the nation’s electorate is still divided coastal settlement areas. Minorities constitute nearly somewhat between whiter heartland states and one-half or more of the electorates in Hawaii, New heavily minority coastal states, states in the Sun Mexico, California, Texas and D.C., and at least Belt stand in the forefront of racial electorate one-third or more in a swath of additional states in change. These include fast-growing Western inte- the South and interior West. (See Table C.) rior states that are receiving Hispanics and other Hispanics embody substantial and increasing minorities, and prosperous Southern states that portions of the electorates in many Western states are attracting blacks along with Hispanics from as well as Connecticut, Florida, New Jersey, New other regions. York and Texas. The Hispanic population may soon The geographic dispersion of new minorities and approach the black population in electoral clout. southward migration of blacks advantage the Dem- Minorities constitute more than one-quarter of the ocrats by enlarging the number of available battle- electorate in most Southern states and blacks are ground states. This allowed Democrats to cut into the largest group except in Florida, Oklahoma and a new electoral turf that Republicans held steadily Texas. Blacks still dominate the small minority for a long period, and these trends should pave the populations in whiter heartland states such as way for new state battlegrounds in the future.
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