IMR INSTITUTE OF MODERN RUSSIA September 2014, Issue No. 3 THEIMR REVIEW Third Gas War NATO Fumbles Ukraine Lesson of the First World War The World Has Fallen Out of Love With Russia Cover photo: Reuters IMR INSTITUTE OF MODERN RUSSIA 2 The Point of No Return A letter from IMR President Pavel Khodorkovsky Dear Reader, were Europeans, the West could no longer pretend that the Ukraine crisis is merely a local conflict. Over the last several months the world has Many analysts concluded that the airplane was been shaken. Only last fall, hardly anyone would hit by pro-Russian separatists, who accidentally have believed that Russia could be at war with took aim at the civilian plane, confusing it with a Ukraine. Today, the world is observing what an- Ukrainian military jet. Russia refused to take re- alysts have already described as a “hybrid war.” sponsibility for the crash, blaming Ukraine for the The Russian government persistently denies its incident instead. military presence in Ukraine and its support for The MH17 crash marked a symbolic point of pro-Kremlin separatists. However, as of today, this no return in the world’s perception of Russia: the undeclared war has already cost over 3,500 lives. world has fallen out of love with it. A recent poll It comes as no secret that the key architect by Pew Global Research showed that 72 percent of the Ukraine crisis is Russian president Vladimir of U.S. citizens and 74 percent of Europeans now Putin, who once said that the collapse of the So- have an unfavorable opinion of Russia — a sharp viet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the increase, compared to data from 2013. 20th century. And it should come as no surprise The tragedy has caused another shift. It that he plans to fix history by bringing post-Soviet finally prompted the West to toughen sanctions republics back under the auspices of Russia. against Russia, now targeting its finance, energy Ukraine’s attempts to break away from the and defense sectors, as well as dozens of indi- Russian grip were not taken lightly by the Kremlin. viduals associated with Putin. Despite the Krem- In February, after months of nonstop protesting lin’s bravado, the sanctions have already taken a against Viktor Yanukovych’s corrupt regime, the toll on the country’s economy, with capital flight Ukrainian people finally succeeded in ousting the estimated to reach $100 billion by the end of the president who bankrupted the country and under- year. Expanding sanctions was a step in the right mined its European path. direction, but the West still needs a stronger, more The thrill of Ukraine’s freshly acquired unified course of action in order to stop Putin’s self-governance was short-lived: within one aggression, protect European borders and finally month Russia covertly invaded and illegally an- bring peace to Ukraine. Pavel Khodorkovsky nexed Crimea, claiming its historical right to the There is no easy way to overcome the cri- peninsula. Ignoring international indignation, sis. The rifts between Russia and Europe have Vladimir Putin furthered his plan by undermining widened, as the Kremlin has excelled in the infor- Ukrainian unity. Stirring the emotions of the cit- mation war not only inside the country, but also izens of Donetsk and Lugansk, where Russians abroad, professionalizing its propaganda tech- comprise almost 40 percent of the population, and niques and “weaponizing” information. Exposing encouraging their anxiety over the uncertainties and debunking the Kremlin’s lies is another major in Ukraine’s future, Putin stealthily supported and challenge for the West that must be met. sponsored the separatist movement. Separatists, Even though Russia is going through turbu- spearheaded by the covert agents of Russia’s mil- lent times, there is still hope. As the recent Peace itary intelligence, claimed their right for self-de- March in Moscow has shown, many Russians are termination and asked to join Russia. Attempts of against the war in Ukraine. They oppose Putin’s the Ukrainian army to fight off the violent groups aggressive policies and demand political change. of separatists were unsuccessful, since the latter If history is any indication, oppressive regimes are were provided with weapons, equipment and even not sustainable — sooner or later, they always fall. manpower from Russia. In case of Russia, a unified opposition to Putin’s Despite the increasing death toll, the West regime, both at home and abroad, can draw closer was reluctant to come up with a hardline response the inevitable finale. to Putin’s aggression. However, when the Malay- sian Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over Don- Sincerely yours, bass on July 17, killing 298 people, most of whom Pavel Khodorkovsky The IMR REVIEW Sarah Vogelsong, copyeditor Olga Bolshchikova, designer Olga Khvostunova, editor-in-chief Tamurlaine Melby, copyeditor Printed by Digital City Services, LLC (New York) 3 IMR NEWS INSTITUTE OF MODERN RUSSIA IMR IMR Relaunches imrussia.org the goals of the regime. While the Kremlin tries to “monopolize” the concept of “true patriotism,” the actual views of the Russian public on what consti- On September 22, the Institute of Modern Russia relaunched its cor- tutes patriotism remain unclear. porate website, imrussia.org, and updated its logo. Substantial changes To examine how Russians understand patriotism today, IMR commis- were made to the website layout, structure, and navigation, as well as its sioned New York photographer Misha Friedman to conduct a visual explora- mobile version. tion and cultural study of this concept. Over several months, Friedman trav- The primary reason for the website relaunch is to keep imrussia.org’s eled throughout Russia, where he photographed and interviewed over one design and structure up-to-date, clear, and easy to navigate for our readers. hundred people from all walks of life — from pensioners and paratroopers Thus, the main page has been rearranged into blocks, highlighting the variety to students and businessmen. All of the collected material, including photo- of published materials and accentuating the divisions between different sec- graphs, interview transcripts, and audio excerpts, will be presented on this tions and different genres. interactive website, providing an intimate look at the concept of patriotism Separating the Opinions section from the Analysis section was one of in contemporary Russia. the most crucial changes. Special emphasis was placed on IMR’s series of articles on Russia’s political prisoners (our core project), which have been placed into an eponymous block on the main page. A newsfeed from The Inter- Russian Patriotism Discussed preter, another popular IMR project, has also been embedded on the website. at the ASN Convention A new section, Research, has been created to present white papers written by IMR’s fellows and other researchers upon the Institute’s request. On April 26, IMR hosted a panel titled “The Meaning of Patriotism The Projects section has been updated and expanded to provide a more com- in Post-Soviet Russia” at the World Convention of the Association for the prehensive view of IMR’s concrete activities. Some changes have also been Study of Nationalities (ASN) at Columbia University. IMR president Pavel made in the People section, which now allows readers to find brief information Khodorkovsky served as the panel’s chair, with Richard Sakwa, a professor on IMR’s staff, trustees, and contributors. A separate page has been created of Russian and European politics at the University of Kent, participating as for each contributor, featuring his or her articles published at imrussia.org. a discussant. Finally, we have updated our commenting system. Now our readers can IMR advisor Boris Bruk presented the first results of this research in leave comments, discuss articles, and follow popular discussions using their his paper titled “What’s in a Name? Understanding Russian Patriotism.” A social media accounts. IMR’s new website is also designed to be viewed on part of the research data used in this paper was collected in collaboration mobile devices and tablets and as a web app on your phone. with the Levada Center, Russia’s leading polling organization. As the study showed, in an increasing number of cases, the authorities have sought to monopolize the notion of patriotism and thereby determine what consti- Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova: tutes “true patriotism.” What Threatens the Eastern Partnership? Alexander Semyonov, a professor and chair of the Department of His- tory at the Higher School of Economics in St. Petersburg, presented his paper On July 28, the Legatum Institute and the Institute of Modern Rus- entitled “Imperial Revolution and Imperial Citizenship in the Russian Empire sia presented papers on transitional issues faced by Ukraine, Georgia, and in the Early Twentieth Century.” Also, Ilya Gerasimov, executive editor of the Moldova. The forum featured the reflections of two British journalists, Peter international quarterly Ab Imperio, presented his paper entitled “History as Pomerantsev and Oliver Bullough, as well as those of IMR’s editor-in-chief the Last Refuge of a Patriot: Academician Chubaryan, Boris Akunin, and the Olga Khvostunova. Anne Applebaum, director of the Legatum Institute’s Quest for a Unifying Russian History.” Transitions Forum, moderated the discussion. The event took place at the National Endowment for Democracy’s headquarters in Washington, D.C. In late June, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova signed EU association Putin and Oligarch presented in the U.S. agreements, putting to paper a clear desire to turn westward and break from On April 22 and 24, with the support of IMR, Professor Richard Sakwa their burdensome post-Soviet legacy. However, the democratic development presented Putin and the Oligarch: The Khodorkovsky-Yukos Affair in Wash- of these three countries has been impeded by a number of problems, with ington, DC, and New York, covering the major themes of the book and com- corruption being the most crucial challenge.