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Environmental Performance of Emerging Supersonic Transport Aircraft WORKING PAPER 2018-12 Environmental performance of emerging supersonic transport aircraft Authors: Anastasia Kharina, Tim MacDonald, Dan Rutherford* Date: July 17, 2018 Keywords: supersonic, aircraft fuel efficiency, XNO , noise, ICAO SUMMARY and route. In the best-case scenario, international agreements that call for the modeled SST burned 3 times as reductions in CO , the International Three U.S.-based startup companies 2 much fuel per business-class passen- Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) are working to develop new super- ger relative to recently certificated projects that CO emissions from sonic transport (SST) aircraft for 2 subsonic aircraft; in the worst case, international aviation will triple from planned entry into service in the mid- it burned 9 times as much fuel com- 2018 to 2050, given current trends 2020s. There are currently no inter- pared to an economy-class passenger (ICAO, 2013, 2016). national environmental standards for on a subsonic flight. such aircraft, which last flew in 2003. To mitigate this rise in CO2 emissions, Policymakers are considering whether These findings suggest two pathways ICAO established two aspirational to develop new specific SST standards for further development of commercial goals for international flights: fleet- or to apply existing standards for sub- SSTs. First, manufacturers could maxi- wide fuel efficiency improvements of sonic aircraft to the new designs. mize the likelihood of meeting existing 2% annually through 2050, and zero environmental standards by develop- net growth of aviation CO emissions This paper provides a preliminary 2 ing new aircraft based upon advanced, assessment of the environmental per- after 2020 (ICAO, 2010). In March clean sheet engines. Second, policy- formance of new commercial SSTs. 2017, ICAO formally adopted new makers could establish new environ- global aircraft CO emission standards Results suggest that these aircraft are 2 mental standards specifically for SSTs unlikely to comply with existing stan- for member states to implement start- based upon the performance of poorer dards for subsonic aircraft. The most ing in 2020. ICAO’s Carbon Offsetting performing derivative engines. Such likely configuration of a representative and Reduction Scheme for Interna- standards would allow for increased SST was estimated to exceed limits for tional Aviation (CORSIA) is expected air pollution, noise, and CO relative to nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide 2 to come into effect around the same new commercial aircraft. time (ICCT, 2017). (CO2) by 40% and 70%, respectively. A noise assessment concludes that Aircraft development is capital- emerging SSTs are likely to fail current INTRODUCTION intensive and risky; the vast majority (2018) and perhaps historical (2006) landing and takeoff noise standards. Aircraft produce about 3% of global of projects are undertaken by large airframe manufacturers, often with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and On average, the modeled SST was 11% of all CO2 emissions from the substantial government support. estimated to burn 5 to 7 times as much transportation sector (EIA, 2018). A more recent phenomenon is that fuel per passenger as subsonic air- The aviation sector is one of the of startups, often backed by major craft on representative routes. Results fastest-growing sources of green- companies such as Boeing and Lock- varied by seating class, configuration, house gas emissions globally. Despite heed Martin, developing new aircraft Acknowledgments: We thank Malcolm Ralph, Darren Rhodes, Tim Johnson, Ben Rubin, Vera Pardee, Brad Schallert, and Amy Smorodin for their advice and thorough review. This study was funded through the generous support of the ClimateWorks Foundation and the Joshua & Anita Bekenstein Charitable Fund. * Kharina and Rutherford are with the International Council on Clean Transportation. McDonald is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics at Stanford University. © INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION, 2018 WWW.THEICCT.ORG ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING SUPERSONIC TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT designs. Examples include compa- Table 1. SST startup companies. nies developing electric-powered Company Aerion Spike Boom aircraft, such as Zunum Aero and Joby Aviation, and three companies Aircraft type Business jet Business jet Airliner S-512 Quiet in the United States developing new Aircraft name AS2 — Supersonic Jet supersonic transport (SST) aircraft: Boom Supersonic, Spike Aerospace, Target entry into service 2025 2023 2023 and Aerion Corporation. Boom is Target speed Mach 1.4 Mach 1.6 Mach 2.2 developing a commercial airliner, Target maximum range 7,780 km 11,500 km 8,300 km while Spike and Aerion are focusing “Quiet supersonic Low-boom technology? No 1 No on supersonic business jets. flight technology” Virgin Group The potential return of supersonic Corporate customers Flexjet — Japan Airlines flights could have large environmen- CTrip tal and noise pollution consequences. 1 Spike Aerospace (2017b). In 2015, aviation was responsible for about 800 million metric tons of CO2 performance of their designs. The Spike Aerospace (2017a), based in emissions, or about as much as the work is meant to inform policymak- Boston, is collaborating with Sie- German economy. New supersonic ers’ thinking about future standards mens, MAYA Simulation, Greenpoint aircraft could lead to further emission for new supersonic designs until such Technologies, BRPH, Aernnova, and increases if they are less fuel-efficient time that higher-fidelity data is made Quartus Engineering Inc. Dubbed than new subsonic aircraft. available. S-512, Spike’s supersonic business jet is targeted to fly at Mach 1.6. Unlike The previous generation of civil super- Aerion and Boom, Spike’s aircraft sonic aircraft, the Aérospatiale/BAC BACKGROUND design would be powered by two Concorde and Tupolev Tu-144, took engines, not three. It claims to use a their first flights five decades ago. AIRCRAFT “Quiet Supersonic Flight Technology” Currently, there are no environmental There have been two commercial in designing its project airplane. standards applicable to new super- supersonic vehicles in the past: the sonic designs. ICAO’s Committee on Aérospatiale/BAC Concorde and the Aerion Corporation, Spike’s competi- Aviation Environmental Protection Tupolev Tu-144. Seventeen Tu-144s tor in delivering the first supersonic (CAEP) is now developing noise and were manufactured, including 14 pro- business jet, aims to perform the first emission certification standards for duction aircraft that flew commer- flight of its AS2 aircraft in 2023 and to supersonic aircraft (FAA, 2018a). cially 102 times before being decom- bring it into service in 2025. It is the missioned in 1978 (NASA, 2014). only company to identify its engine This paper presents a preliminary Concorde, while equally limited in manufacturer: General Electric. analysis of a new commercial SST’s production, had a more substantial Aerion collaborated with Airbus in air- performance in terms of fuel burn, service life. It flew its first scheduled craft design and signed an agreement CO and nitrogen oxide (NO ) emis- 2 X supersonic passenger service in 1976 for co-development with Lockheed sions, and landing and takeoff (LTO) and the last in 2003. Both aircraft Martin, the developer of NASA’s low- noise. Other environmental factors, were powered by turbojet engines boom flight demonstrator experimen- including sonic boom, particulate with afterburners, which led to high tal plane (or X-plane). This business matter, and stratospheric water vapor fuel burn and takeoff noise. jet is targeted to fly at Mach 1.4 using have not been addressed. The analy- three engines. sis uses publicly available data, expert Three companies in the United States engineering judgment, and an open- are currently developing new SSTs: Boom Supersonic is developing source aircraft conceptual aircraft Spike Aerospace, Aerion Corpora- a 55-seat commercial jet capable design tool (SUAVE). The analysis tion, and Boom Supersonic. Spike and of operating at Mach 2.2 with a addresses a key data gap since manu- Aerion are both focusing on business design range of 4,500 nautical miles facturers are currently releasing little jet models, whereas Boom is develop- (8,300 km). Boom is not developing information about the environmental ing a supersonic airliner. a specific technology or design to 2 INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WORKING PAPER 2018-12 ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING SUPERSONIC TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT suppress sonic boom; instead, it is The ICAO noise standard does not not be applied to new supersonic relying on the use of a newer engine include a regulatory limit for super- designs (ICAO, 2014b). and better aerodynamics than Con- sonic aircraft (ICAO, 2014a). In 2004, corde’s to manage sonic boom. It is CAEP formed a supersonic task group The lack of supporting standards developing a one-third–scale super- under its Working Group 1, which for both noise and engine emissions sonic airplane that will demonstrate focuses on noise pollution. This group complicates the development of new Boom’s technology prior to finalizing has been monitoring the development supersonic aircraft. Without interna- its airliner design. Boom claims that its of supersonic technologies in order tional standards providing regulatory aircraft “won’t pollute any more than to develop eventual en-route (sonic certainty that their aircraft can be sold the subsonic business-class travel it boom) and LTO noise standards.
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