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The Raw and the Cooked

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The Raw and the Cooked DAILY SPOTLIGHT Hong Kong Edition 23 October 2009 (Friday) The Raw and the Cooked Index Performance* (%) 5D 1M YTD HSI 1 3 54 The Cooked HSCEI 1 4 64 HSCCI 0 1 26 Datang Power – SELL (Hª) HOLD (A) ........................................2 MSCI HK 2 4 58 (0991.HK/HK$4.08; TP: HK$3.65ª) Peter YAO, CFA MSCI China 1 4 57 (601991.SS/Rmb9.16; TP: Rmb8.90ª) MSCI Asia (0) (1) 27 Rating Change — Contrary to its peer Huaneng Power, Datang International FTSE-Xinhua A50 3 10 75 Power recently settled key coal contracts at much higher prices than its earlier * BOCI indices are available on Reuters page BOCI estimates, resulting in a 39% QoQ net profit decline in 3Q09. We see higher risks of unfavourable coal‐price terms for its 2010 contract negotiations and a Leaders (%) 5D 1M YTD low probability of de‐leveraging after Datang rolled over its debt structure to a Haier Electronics (1169.HK) 27 56 171 longer‐term bias. Owing to a bleak outlook and low earnings visibility for its Towngas China (1083.HK) 20 24 122 non‐power segments in 2010‐11, we lower Datang’s H‐share target price to Beijing Media (1000.HK) 20 23 82 HK$3.65 and downgrade the stock from HOLD to SELL. We also revise down Weichai Power (2338.HK) 18 36 263 our A‐share target price to Rmb8.90. China Foods (0506.HK) 16 15 115 China Shipping Development – HOLD (Hª&A) .........................9 Laggards (%) 5D 1M YTD (1138.HK/HK$11.98; TP: HK$12.00ª) Jimmy Lam, CFA China Dongxiang (3818.HK) (8) (14) 138 (600026.SS/Rmb13.86; TP: Rmb13.70ª) Air China Ltd (0753.HK) (8) (8) 79 Rating Change — The 9M09 net profit of China Shipping Development (CSD) Parkson Group (3368.HK) (8) 5 40 plunged 80.8% YoY due to lower shipping rates. Turnover dropped 54.1% to Anhui Conch (0914.HK) (8) (11) 46 Rmb6.57bn. The decline in CSD’s profit was driven by: i) a 8.5% slide in total Wasion Meter (3393.HK) (8) (0) 308 shipment volume to 160.5bn tonne‐nautical miles (tnm); ii) a drop in average freight rates of 45.5%; iii) a 93.6% plunge in investment income as profit from US ADR Closings HK$ (%) associated companies was hampered by the poor market environment, and; iv) the 75.9% decline in non‐operating income due to lower disposal gains from Bank of East Asia (0023.HK) 27.82 (2) vessel sales. We downgrade CSD’s H shares from BUY to HOLD, with a new Cathay Pacific (0293.HK) 12.99 3 target price of HK$12.00. We reaffirm our HOLD rating for its A shares with Chalco (2600.HK) 9.17 1 our target price lowered to Rmb13.70. Cheung Kong (0001.HK) 107.03 1 China Life (2628.HK) 36.12 1 China Mobile (0941.HK) 76.68 0 China Southern (1055.HK) 2.45 0 China Telecom (0728.HK) 3.63 1 China Unicom (0762.HK) 10.73 1 CLP Holdings (0002.HK) 52.24 0 CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK) 12.37 1 Guangshen Railway (0525.HK) 3.19 1 Henderson Land (0012.HK) 57.97 1 HK & China Gas (0003.HK) 18.83 (2) HK Electric (0006.HK) 41.46 (0) HSBC (0005.HK) 89.93 1 Huaneng Power (0902.HK) 5.60 0 Hutchison (0013.HK) 57.74 0 Johnson Electric (0179.HK) 3.67 1 Lenovo (0992.HK) 4.57 0 PCCW (0008.HK) 1.98 (0) PetroChina (0857.HK) 10.23 1 SHK Properties (0016.HK) 125.40 2 Sinopec (0386.HK) 6.77 1 SMIC (0981.HK) 0.40 0 Swire Pacific (0019.HK) 95.56 (1) Techtronic (0669.HK) 6.56 1 Tsingtao Brewery (0168.HK) 31.54 (1) Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK) 12.35 2 BOCI research is available electronically on Bloomberg (BOCR <go>), firstcall.com, multex.com and at www.bociresearch.com. Any views expressed in this report reflect the current personal views of the analyst and do not necessarily represent the views of BOC International or any of its affiliates. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC. UTILITIES — Electricity Rating Change 23 October 2009 Datang Int’l Power Poor earnings visibility Contrary to its peer Huaneng Power, Datang International SELL (ªHOLD) Power recently settled key coal contracts at much higher H prices than its earlier estimates, resulting in a 39% QoQ net 0991.HK – HK$4.08 profit decline in 3Q09. Due to the margin squeeze, its 9M09 profits only accounted for 49% of our full-year forecast. We Target Price: HK$3.65 (ª5.00) see higher risks of unfavourable coal-price terms for its 2010 contract negotiations and a low probability of de-leveraging after Datang rolled over its debt structure to a longer-term HOLD bias. Owing to a bleak outlook and low earnings visibility for its non-power segments in 2010-11, we lower Datang’s 601991.SS – Rmb9.16 H-share target price from HK$5.00 to HK$3.65 and downgrade A the stock from HOLD to SELL. We also revise down our Target Price: Rmb8.90 (ª9.70) A-share target price from Rmb9.70 to Rmb8.90 and reiterate our HOLD rating. Key Factors for Rating Some 44% of the 2009 coal supply to Datang was already settled by key contracts at higher terms. Peter YAO, CFA We revise up our 2009 unit fuel cost projection by 2.4% to Rmb174.6/MWh. +852 29052105 [email protected] Its high financial leverage signifies potential fund‐raising. Share Price vs Index – H shares Key Risks to Rating HK$ Turnover (HK$ m) Production schedule and sales terms of energy projects. 6.5 600 Contract coal negotiations for 2010. 5.5 500 400 4.5 Valuation 300 3.5 200 We cut our 2009‐11 EPS estimates by 19%, 18% and 14%, 2.5 100 respectively, based on our higher unit fuel cost estimates. 1.5 0 We lower our target prices for its H and A shares to HK$3.65 and Rmb8.90. Our new target price implies 16.2x forward P/E 22/10/08 22/11/08 22/12/08 22/01/09 22/02/09 22/03/09 22/04/09 22/05/09 22/06/09 22/07/09 22/08/09 22/09/09 22/10/09 and 1.2x forward P/B for its H shares. Datang Intl Power Gen Co-H HSMLCI Earnings visibility is questionable despite expected jumps in Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research 2010‐11. Figure 1. Investment Summary – H shares Share Price Performance – H shares Year ended 31 Dec 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E YTD 1M 3M 12M Revenue (Rmb m) 32,763 36,836 50,127 59,233 76,087 Absolute (%) (0) (7) (14) 23 Change (%) 32 12 36 18 28 Relative to HSMLCI (%) (54) (11) (26) (59) Net profit (Rmb m) 3,564 761 1,694 2,416 4,228 Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research Fully diluted EPS (Rmb) 0.307 0.065 0.142 0.196 0.343 Change (%) 14.6 (78.9) 119.4 37.9 75.0 Key Data – H shares Consensus EPS (Rmb) - - 0.213 0.273 0.345 Total issued shares (m) 11,749 Previous EPS (Rmb) - - 0.176 0.240 0.400 Free float (%) 100 Change (%) -- (19.3) (18.2) (14.2) Free float mkt. cap. (HK$ m) 47,936 Fully diluted P/E (x) 11.7 55.5 25.3 18.3 10.5 3M avg. daily turnover (HK$ m) 131 CFPS (Rmb) 0.91 0.76 1.44 1.46 1.92 Net debt/equity (%) (2009E) 304 P/CF (x) 3.9 4.7 2.5 2.5 1.9 Major shareholders (%) EV/EBITDA (x) 8.8 15.8 10.5 9.9 7.8 China Datang Corporation 36 DPS (Rmb) 0.121 0.110 0.078 0.079 0.137 Beijng Energy Investment 11 Yield (%) 3.4 3.1 2.2 2.2 3.8 Sources: Company data, Bloomberg, BOCI Research Sources: Company data, BOCI Research estimates BOCI research is available electronically on Bloomberg (BOCR <go>), firstcall.com, multex.com and at www.bociresearch.com. NB: BUY = ≥+10% compared with the relevant benchmark index over a 6-month period; SELL= ≤-10% compared with the relevant benchmark index over a 6-month period; HOLD = ≤+10% and ≥-10% compared with the relevant benchmark index over a 6-month period; Not Rated (NR) Share Price vs Index – A shares Disappointing 3Q09 Results Rmb Turnover (Rmb m) 14 1,000 900 Datang made a net profit of Rmb374m in 3Q09, down 39% QoQ. 12 800 700 9M09 profits under the Chinese accounting standards (CAS) 10 600 500 came in at Rmb1.03bn, representing merely 49% of our 2009 8 400 300 forecast and significantly below market consensus. Gross and 6 200 100 operating margins shrank 3.4ppts and 4ppts QoQ, respectively, 4 0 owing to higher fuel costs. The earnings disappointment was mainly attributed to the settlement of most key contract coal at 22/10/08 22/11/08 22/12/08 22/01/09 22/02/09 22/03/09 22/04/09 22/05/09 22/06/09 22/07/09 22/08/09 22/09/09 22/10/09 Datang Intl Power Gen Co-A FTSE-Xinhua A50 higher prices than Datang’s earlier estimate, in addition to better performance of its non‐wholly owned power plants since Sources: Bloomberg, BOCI Research minority interests comprised 46% of the after‐tax and before‐minority‐interest profits in 3Q09.
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