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Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368

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Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368 Company Report: Zhaojin Mining (01818 HK) Kevin Guo 郭勇 公司报告：招金矿业 (01818 HK) +86 755 23976671 [email protected] 国泰君安研究 28 August 2013 Profitability Eroded By Gold Price Plunge, Maintain “Neutral” 盈利能力受金价下跌侵蚀，下调至“中性”评级 GTJA Research Research GTJA z The 2013 interim results of the Company were significantly lower than Rating: Neutral market consensus and our estimation. Although total revenue increased Maintained by 23% yoy to RMB 2.37 billion, total net profit dropped by 40% yoy to RMB 299.7 million. 评级： 中性 (维持) z Maintain mined gold output assumptions unchanged as expansion projects of the Company progressed smoothly as scheduled. We expect 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$6.87 the output of mined gold of the Company to increase by about 18% to 21.3 t in Revised from 原目标价: HK$8.47 2013. Share price 股价： HK$6.990 z Revise down gold price assumptions as more investors abandoned gold assets. We revise down 2013 average gold prices assumptions to US$1,350/oz and expect gold to be traded between wilder ranges of Stock performance 股价表现 US$1,200-1,800/oz in 2013. 40.0 % of return 30.0 z Revise down TP to HK$ 6.87 and maintain “Neutral”. 20.0 z 公司上半年业绩显著低于市场一致预期和我们的估计。公司收入同比增长 23%至人 10.0 0.0 民币 23.7 亿元，但公司净利同比下跌 40%至人民币 2.997 亿元。 (10.0) (20.0) z 公司扩产项目按计划进展顺利，维持公司矿金产量假设不变。我们预计公司 2013 年 (30.0) 的矿金产量将增长 18%至 21.3 吨。 (40.0) (50.0) z 由于越来越多的投资者抛弃黄金资产，下调金价假设。我们将 2013 年的黄金平均价 (60.0) 格假设下调至 1,350 美元/盎司，并预计金价将在 1,200-1,800 美元/盎司的区间波动。 (70.0) Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 z 下调公司目标价至 6.87 港元并维持“中性”评级。 HSI Index Zhaojin Mining HK) (01818 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 Abs. % 招金矿业 绝对变动 % 26.2 (7.9) (36.6) Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % 26.6 (4.3) (47.1) Avg. share price(HK$) 5.8 5.9 9.6 平均股价（港元） Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Zhaojin Mining Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) FY11A 5,741 1,660 0.560 35.8 7.2 2.220 1.8 0.224 5.5 27.7 FY12A 7,603 1,924 0.649 15.9 6.2 2.834 1.4 0.195 4.8 25.7 FY13F 7,351 1,074 0.362 (44.2) 10.7 3.087 1.3 0.109 2.8 12.2 FY14F 7,750 862 0.291 (19.8) 13.4 3.290 1.2 0.087 2.2 9.1 FY15F 8,584 750 0.253 (13.0) 15.4 3.467 1.1 0.076 1.9 7.5 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 2,919.1 Major shareholder 大股东 Zhaojin Group 37.3% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 20,374.9 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 29.4 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 9,419.03 FY13 Net gearing (%) FY13 净负债/股东资金 (%) 45.9 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 14.480 / 4.460 FY13 Est. NAV (HK$) FY13 每股估值（港元） 16.5 Source︰The Company, Guotai Junan International. Company Report Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7 The 2013 interim results of the Company were significantly lower than market consensus and our estimation. Although total revenue increased by 23% yoy to RMB 2.37 billion, total net profit dropped by 40% yoy to RMB 299.7 million. The output of mined gold of the Company increased by 10.99% yoy to 8.63 tons, but the output of smelted gold dropped by 21.53% yoy to 3.73 tons. The output of mined gold contributed by mines outside Zhaoyuan District increased by 33.33% yoy to 2.44 tons, which contributed most of the output growth. However, the profitability of the Company was seriously eroded by the drop of gold prices which led to lower profit. The 1H2013 average gold prices dropped by 8.8% yoy to RMB 307.3/g. Additionally, the Company intentionally reduced the sale of gold as gold plunged in 1H2013 which also contributed to the drop 2013 August 28 of net profit. Maintain mined gold output assumptions unchanged as expansion projects of the Company progressed smoothly as scheduled. The output of mined gold of the Company maintained double-digital growth since its listing. Mined gold output contributed by mines in Zhaoyuan district was stable, while mined gold output contributed by mines outside Zhaoyuan district grew faster than those located in Zhaoyuan district. According to the Company, the output of mined gold in Zhaoyuan district increased by about 4.0 % yoy to 6.18 tons in 1H2013, while the output outside Zhaoyuan district increased by 33.3% yoy to 2.44 tons. As most of the expansion projects are located outside Zhaonyuan district, the output of mines outside Zhaoyuan district is expected to maintain faster growth rate in the next few years. We expect the output growth of mined gold in 2013 to accelerate as several new mines commence production. We expect the output of mined gold of the Company to increase by about 18% to 21.3 t in 2013. Table 1 Main projects under construction Projects Location Production capacity(t/d) Planned production time Qinghe Mining Xinjiang Province 2,000 2H2013 Zaozigou Gold Mine Gansu Province 2,000 2H2012 Canzhuang Mining Zhaoyuan 1,150 2H2013 Baiyun Mining Liaoning Province 2,000 2H2013 Source: The Company, Guotai Junan International. Revise down gold price assumptions as more investors abandoned gold assets. We do not expect gold to enter into bear market immediately, neither do we expect gold prices to advance further to record high levels. Global low interest rate (01818 HK) HK) (01818 environment and loose monetary policies of major central banks provide strong support for gold prices. However, there are more signs indicate that Federal Reserve might scale back QE which might start since the year end of 2013 as U.S. economy 招金矿业 gains robust momentum. Besides, more investors abandoned gold assets and turn to other assets this year. Gold hold by SPDR, the largest gold ETF, has declined by about 300 tons to less than 1000 tons this year. We revise down 2013 average gold prices assumptions to US$1,350/oz and expect gold to be traded between wilder ranges of US$1,200-1,800/oz in 2013. We expect gold prices to decline slowly in 2014-2015 as global economic risks mitigate further and macro economy gains Zhaojin Mining robust recovery. We believe the turning point to bear market be that loose monetary policy come to the end and central banks start to raise interest rate. The Company keeps expanding its gold resources through acquisitions and exploration. Gold resources held by the Company increased significantly in the past few years. Gold resources grew at a CAGR of 25.1% in 2006-2012, increased from 180 tons to 690 tons. At the mean time, gold reserves grew at a CAGR of 18.2% in 2006-2012, increased from 130 tons to 356 tons. The compelling growth of gold resources and reserves was mainly contributed by the newly acquired mines and further exploration of existing mines. Zhaojin Mining started to acquire gold mines since its listing, and it had acquired many gold mines so far. Generally speaking, gold resources and reserves outside Zhaoyuan district grew faster than that in Zhaoyuan district. Although gold mines in Zhaoyuan district constitute the main part of gold resources and reserves of the company, we believe gold mines outside Zhaoyuan district will contribute most of the gold reserves growth in the future as more gold mines are acquired and further explored. We expect the Company to continue to expand its gold resources in the coming years through acquisitions and exploration. Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 7 Figure 1 Gold resource and reserve of the Company Figure 2 Gold prices (US$/oz) 800 2,100 t 700 gold resource gold reserve 1,900 1,700 600 1,500 500 1,300 2013 August 28 400 1,100 300 900 200 700 100 500 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: The Company, Guotai Junan International. Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Revise down TP to HK$ 6.87, and maintain “Neutral”. The Company holds abundant gold resource and keeps expanding it through acquisition and exploration, which will strongly support the output growth of mined gold. We expect the output of mined gold of the Company to increase by 18% in 2013 as several new gold mines commence production. Although net profit of the Company dropped significantly in 1H2013, we expect the drop to contract in 2H2013 as gold prices rebound from the bottom and more sale of refined gold. However, the profitability of the Company is still seriously eroded by the drop of gold prices. As a result, we revise down FY13-FY15 EPS to RMB 0.362, 0.291, 0.253, down by 36%, 48% and 40%, respectively. Hence, we revise down TP of Zhaojin Mining to HK$ 6.87, which is equivalent to 15x FY13 PE, and maintain “Neutral”. (01818 HK) HK) (01818 招金矿业 Zhaojin Mining Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 7 Table 3 Key assumptions of Zhaojin Mining FY13 FY13 Changes FY14 FY14 Changes FY15 FY15 Changes (Old) (New) (%) (Old) (New) (%) (Old) (New) (%) Sales Volume (kg) Mined Gold 21,341 21,341 0% 24,543 24,543 0% 28,224 28,224 0% Smelted Gold 447 447 0% 469 469 0% 493 493 0% Tolling Treatment 8,723 6,886 -21% 8,287 6,542 -21% 7,872 6,215 -21% 28 August 2013 2013 August 28 Price Gold(RMB/g) 315 285 -10% 300 265 -12% 275 260 -5% Unit Cost Mined Gold(RMB/g) 179 184 3% 182 187 3% 186 191 3% SG&A/Revenue -13.0% -13.0% 0Pts -13.0% -13.0% 0Pts -13.0% -13.0% 0Pts Interest rate -6.0% -6.0% 0Pts -5.0% -5.0% 0Pts -5.0% -5.0% 0Pts Effective income tax -25.0% -25.0% 0Pts -25.0% -25.0% 0Pts -25.0% -25.0% 0Pts MI rate -2.0% -2.0% 0Pts -2.0% -2.0% 0Pts -2.0% -2.0% 0Pts Dividend payout ratio -30.0% -30.0% 0Pts -30.0% -30.0% 0Pts -30.0% -30.0% 0Pts EPS 0.565 0.362 -36% 0.553 0.291 -48% 0.424 0.253 -40% Source: Guotai Junan International.
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