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IS ( Daesh ) in Bangladesh and India by Jawad Falak and Hassan Riaz

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IS ( Daesh ) in Bangladesh and India by Jawad Falak and Hassan Riaz IS ( Daesh ) in Bangladesh and India by Jawad Falak and Hassan Riaz Research Brief www.cscr.pk Terrorist Attacks in South Asia There has been a marked reduction in terrorist attacks and deaths in Pakistan in 2015, but terrorists seem to have become more lethal as the ratio of deaths per attack has increased. The total number of terrorist attacks reported in Pakistan decreased by 45%, total number of deaths reduced by 39% and the total number of people injured decreased by 53% in comparison to 2014, according United States State Department’s reports. The statistics from a comparative study of the US State Department’s country reports on terrorism for 2014 and 2015 also show a greater decrease in the number of people injured in these attacks. According to the US State Department, there were a total of 1,009 terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2015, compared to 1,823 in 2014, which is a 45 per cent decrease. The total deaths in the attacks — 1,081 in 2015 compared to 1,761 in 2014 — went down by 39pc. But in Afghanistan, the number of total attacks in 2015 increased by 127pc between February (88 attacks) and May (200). On June 2, the US State Department released ‘Country Reports on Terrorism’ – which describes the counter- terrorism background during the last year. According to the report, terrorist incidents in India and Bangladesh increased manifold during this period. India continued to experience terrorist attacks, including operations launched by Maoist insurgents and transnational groups alleged to be based in Pakistan. Indian authorities continued to blame Pakistan for cross-border attacks in Kashmir and Jammu. In July, India experienced a terrorist attack in Gurdaspur, Punjab; the first in India’s Punjab Province since the 1990s. Bangladesh experienced a significant increase in terrorist attacks in 2015 compared to 2014. Transnational groups such as ISIL and AQ in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) have claimed several attacks targeting foreigners, religious minorities, police, secular bloggers, and publishers. The Government of Bangladesh has attributed these attacks to the political opposition and local terrorists. Current Economic Conditions in Bangladesh 1. Poverty Rate: 31.5 % (1991 poverty rate was 59 %), lives under poverty line 2. Infant Rate: Out of 1000 babies 31 die before their first birthday due to malnutrition 3. GDP growth rate in 2015 was 6.7 %, 4. total GDP 533.7 Billion $, 5. FDI inflow 1.5 Billion $, 6. Economical global ranking is 137th 7. Inflation rate in 2016 is 6.2% 8. It is also world’s second largest garments exporter 9. Economic development remains hampered by the fragile rule of law. Corruption and marginal enforcement of property rights have driven people and enterprises out of the formal sector. The government’s instability to provide basic public goods further limits opportunities for business development and job growth. 10. Imports partners China 21.7%, India 16.3 %, Malaysia 5.2%, Republic of Korea 4.5%, Japan 4.1% (2013) 11. Export Partners US 18.7%, Germany 15.8%, UK 10.2%, France 6.2%, Spain 4.6%, Canada 4.3%, Italy 4% (2013) 12. Import Commodities machinery and equipment, chemicals, iron and steel, textiles, foodstuffs, petroleum products, cement 2 www.cscr.pk 13. Export commodities garments, knitwear, agricultural products, frozen food (fish and sea food), jute and jute goods, leather 14. Exports 26.91 billion $ 2013, imports 32.94 billion $ 2013 Daesh in Bangladesh On 28th September 2015, an Italian national was gun downed in Dhaka, when police arrested the suspects they confessed to being hired killers and said the contract was given by so called ‘Big Brother’. The National News Agency of Bangladesh said that the attack may be inspired by the ongoing activities of Daesh. A group affiliated with Daesh claims responsibility of an attack on Shia Worship Place in Dhaka, Bangladesh on 24th October 2015. 60 persons were wounded and 1 was killed in this attack according to SITE. In Rangpur, Bangladesh, a 65 year old foreigner was killed by a local assassin on October 3rd 2015. Daesh claimed responsibility in its online magazine. However police blame the killing on the banned extremist group Jama’atul Mujaheedin Bangladesh as reported by SITE. A gunman burst into a Shia mosque in Bangladesh and opened fire by killing one person and wounded other three on 26th November 2015. Daesh claimed responsibility but Mohammed Asaduzzaman, police superintendent in Bogra said that the claim cannot be verified yet and said that the attack may have been inspired by Daesh. The most devastating attack took place on July 1st, 2016 in diplomatic enclave in Dhaka. Several armed men approached diplomatic enclave and took hostage more than 20 persons mostly foreigners. All hostages were killed brutally with sharp weapons like knives. However the responsibility was not claimed by any organization. On June 7th, 2016 a Hindu monk in Western Bangladesh was killed the attack was not directly claimed by Daesh but the officials said that this attack was inspired by Daesh. On April 23rd, 2016 Daesh claimed the assassination of a university professor in Rajshahi, Bangladesh. On February 22nd, 2016 another Hindu Pandit in Northern Bangladesh was killed by a person claiming affiliation to Daesh. However the claim was denied by officials and said that it is the result of home grown militants. Hafiz Abdul Razak a Shia cleric was also stabbed to death in Jhenaidah District in South Western Bangladesh on 14th March 2016, the responsibility was claimed by Daesh. Daesh in India: 3 www.cscr.pk Daesh holds a presence in South Asia but the respective states are continuously denying the fact due to mainly political reasons. But facts run counter to these claims like the twenty Indians who went to Middle East to fight with Daesh. The incidents like these have led to more questions than answers on the group’s presence, appeal and capabilities in the Indian subcontinent. It is a very grave threat to India and highlights the failure of the security and intelligence agencies. Here a question arises that what type of places Daesh has in India to be conduct operations or any sort of strategy? Some competing regional so called terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) are opposed to Daesh. But the most important homegrown Muslim group is Indian Mujahideen. As Daesh is being weakened in Middle East, its spokesperson Abu Muhammad Al-Adnana encouraged ‘lone wolves’ to pursue targets within their respective countries and urge them to prove their allegiance by staying exactly where they were and inflict pain locally. A report published at Washington in 2015, claimed that Daesh was preparing an attack in India. They made it clear that local elements will be used to conduct such a massive attack especially the deprived communities. A 32 page document reported by American Media institute and published by USA Today warns that ‘preparations’ for an attack in India are underway and predicts that an attack will provoke an apocalyptic confrontation with America. A retired CIA officer, Bruce Riedel currently a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute; has said that striking in India would magnify Daesh’s stature and threaten the stability of the region. This report is one year old and it is the same period under which Daesh was weakening in Middle East and then started to inaugurate their different outfits in the rest of the world. Although India claims to be the world’s largest democratic state, it has massive flaws like racial and religious discrimination. The situation like this creates the optimum atmosphere for organizations like Daesh. Are Indian Officials ready to manage this shift? 1. Whether India has an understanding of Daesh’s operational strategy for India 2. Whether LeT and AQIS are competitors or collaborators with Islamic State 3. Whether the most dangerous indigenous terror group IM will collaborate with Daesh? If yes then on what grounds? Operational Manual of Daesh for India 1. Daesh has solid ground in India especially with respect to Kashmir where Muslims are being persecuted. Even they have their clear message against Narendra Modi in their Dabiq magazine about avenge and atrocities against Muslims in Mumbai, Gujarat and Assam. Above all highlighting the group all-encompassing hatred for the ‘cow- worshipping, pagan’ Hindus. 2. Daesh is not using the term Wilayat Khurasan for India as their administrative unit in their Dabiq magazine. However for Bangladesh they are using term ‘the Khilafah’s soldiers in Bengal.’ It shows that DAESH have its presence in Bengal in this way India will lies vulnerably sandwiched between Wilayat Khurasan in the West and Bengal’s fighters in the east. Such scenario can facilitate guerilla attacks inside India from both sides. 3. An interview given by the Amir of Bengal to Dabiq, in which he said that we have two step strategies for India. The first stage would require Wilayat-e-Khurasan and the fighters in Bengal to create a condition of Tawahhush (Fear and Chaos) with the help of existing local mujahidin. The second stage would involve gaining territorial control of India. 4 www.cscr.pk 4. The final phase seems little lengthy which is colluding with local elements to create chaos. But first the attitude of Daesh is very important to understand towards LeT and AQIS. Threats to DAESH in India The relations between AQIS and Daesh are that of antagonists as Daesh called Ayman al-Zawahiri ‘a leader with no real authority’ in pages of Dabiq. The relations between the two are vice-versa as a senior AQ operative in an interview to the AQIS magazine Resurgence (summer 2015 edition) gave some remarks about Daesh.
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