IS ( Daesh ) in Bangladesh and by Jawad Falak and Hassan Riaz

Research Brief www.cscr.pk Terrorist Attacks in South Asia

There has been a marked reduction in terrorist attacks and deaths in Pakistan in 2015, but terrorists seem to have become more lethal as the ratio of deaths per attack has increased. The total number of terrorist attacks reported in Pakistan decreased by 45%, total number of deaths reduced by 39% and the total number of people injured decreased by 53% in comparison to 2014, according United States State Department’s reports. The statistics from a comparative study of the US State Department’s country reports on for 2014 and 2015 also show a greater decrease in the number of people injured in these attacks. According to the US State Department, there were a total of 1,009 terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2015, compared to 1,823 in 2014, which is a 45 per cent decrease. The total deaths in the attacks — 1,081 in 2015 compared to 1,761 in 2014 — went down by 39pc.

But in Afghanistan, the number of total attacks in 2015 increased by 127pc between February (88 attacks) and May (200). On June 2, the US State Department released ‘Country Reports on Terrorism’ – which describes the counter- terrorism background during the last year. According to the report, terrorist incidents in India and Bangladesh increased manifold during this period.

India continued to experience terrorist attacks, including operations launched by Maoist insurgents and transnational groups alleged to be based in Pakistan. Indian authorities continued to blame Pakistan for cross-border attacks in Kashmir and Jammu. In July, India experienced a terrorist attack in Gurdaspur, Punjab; the first in India’s Punjab Province since the 1990s.

Bangladesh experienced a significant increase in terrorist attacks in 2015 compared to 2014. Transnational groups such as ISIL and AQ in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) have claimed several attacks targeting foreigners, religious minorities, police, secular bloggers, and publishers. The Government of Bangladesh has attributed these attacks to the political opposition and local terrorists.

Current Economic Conditions in Bangladesh

1. Poverty Rate: 31.5 % (1991 poverty rate was 59 %), lives under poverty line 2. Infant Rate: Out of 1000 babies 31 die before their first birthday due to malnutrition 3. GDP growth rate in 2015 was 6.7 %, 4. total GDP 533.7 Billion $, 5. FDI inflow 1.5 Billion $, 6. Economical global ranking is 137th 7. Inflation rate in 2016 is 6.2% 8. It is also world’s second largest garments exporter 9. Economic development remains hampered by the fragile rule of law. Corruption and marginal enforcement of property rights have driven people and enterprises out of the formal sector. The government’s instability to provide basic public goods further limits opportunities for business development and job growth. 10. Imports partners China 21.7%, India 16.3 %, Malaysia 5.2%, Republic of Korea 4.5%, Japan 4.1% (2013) 11. Export Partners US 18.7%, Germany 15.8%, UK 10.2%, France 6.2%, Spain 4.6%, Canada 4.3%, Italy 4% (2013) 12. Import Commodities machinery and equipment, chemicals, iron and steel, textiles, foodstuffs, petroleum products, cement

2 www.cscr.pk 13. Export commodities garments, knitwear, agricultural products, frozen food (fish and sea food), jute and jute goods, leather 14. Exports 26.91 billion $ 2013, imports 32.94 billion $ 2013

Daesh in Bangladesh

On 28th September 2015, an Italian national was gun downed in Dhaka, when police arrested the suspects they confessed to being hired killers and said the contract was given by so called ‘Big Brother’. The National News Agency of Bangladesh said that the attack may be inspired by the ongoing activities of Daesh.

A group affiliated with Daesh claims responsibility of an attack on Shia Worship Place in Dhaka, Bangladesh on 24th October 2015. 60 persons were wounded and 1 was killed in this attack according to SITE.

In Rangpur, Bangladesh, a 65 year old foreigner was killed by a local assassin on October 3rd 2015. Daesh claimed responsibility in its online magazine. However police blame the killing on the banned extremist group Jama’atul Mujaheedin Bangladesh as reported by SITE.

A gunman burst into a Shia mosque in Bangladesh and opened fire by killing one person and wounded other three on 26th November 2015. Daesh claimed responsibility but Mohammed Asaduzzaman, police superintendent in Bogra said that the claim cannot be verified yet and said that the attack may have been inspired by Daesh.

The most devastating attack took place on July 1st, 2016 in diplomatic enclave in Dhaka. Several armed men approached diplomatic enclave and took more than 20 persons mostly foreigners. All were killed brutally with sharp weapons like knives. However the responsibility was not claimed by any organization.

On June 7th, 2016 a Hindu monk in Western Bangladesh was killed the attack was not directly claimed by Daesh but the officials said that this attack was inspired by Daesh.

On April 23rd, 2016 Daesh claimed the assassination of a university professor in Rajshahi, Bangladesh. On February 22nd, 2016 another Hindu Pandit in Northern Bangladesh was killed by a person claiming affiliation to Daesh. However the claim was denied by officials and said that it is the result of home grown militants. Hafiz Abdul Razak a Shia cleric was also stabbed to death in Jhenaidah District in South Western Bangladesh on 14th March 2016, the responsibility was claimed by Daesh.

Daesh in India:

3 www.cscr.pk Daesh holds a presence in South Asia but the respective states are continuously denying the fact due to mainly political reasons. But facts run counter to these claims like the twenty Indians who went to Middle East to fight with Daesh. The incidents like these have led to more questions than answers on the group’s presence, appeal and capabilities in the Indian subcontinent. It is a very grave threat to India and highlights the failure of the security and intelligence agencies. Here a question arises that what type of places Daesh has in India to be conduct operations or any sort of strategy? Some competing regional so called terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) are opposed to Daesh. But the most important homegrown Muslim group is .

As Daesh is being weakened in Middle East, its spokesperson Abu Muhammad Al-Adnana encouraged ‘lone wolves’ to pursue targets within their respective countries and urge them to prove their allegiance by staying exactly where they were and inflict pain locally.

A report published at Washington in 2015, claimed that Daesh was preparing an attack in India. They made it clear that local elements will be used to conduct such a massive attack especially the deprived communities. A 32 page document reported by American Media institute and published by USA Today warns that ‘preparations’ for an attack in India are underway and predicts that an attack will provoke an apocalyptic confrontation with America. A retired CIA officer, Bruce Riedel currently a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute; has said that striking in India would magnify Daesh’s stature and threaten the stability of the region. This report is one year old and it is the same period under which Daesh was weakening in Middle East and then started to inaugurate their different outfits in the rest of the world. Although India claims to be the world’s largest democratic state, it has massive flaws like racial and religious discrimination. The situation like this creates the optimum atmosphere for organizations like Daesh.

Are Indian Officials ready to manage this shift?

1. Whether India has an understanding of Daesh’s operational strategy for India 2. Whether LeT and AQIS are competitors or collaborators with Islamic State 3. Whether the most dangerous indigenous group IM will collaborate with Daesh? If yes then on what grounds?

Operational Manual of Daesh for India

1. Daesh has solid ground in India especially with respect to Kashmir where Muslims are being persecuted. Even they have their clear message against in their Dabiq magazine about avenge and atrocities against Muslims in Mumbai, and Assam. Above all highlighting the group all-encompassing hatred for the ‘cow- worshipping, pagan’ . 2. Daesh is not using the term Wilayat Khurasan for India as their administrative unit in their Dabiq magazine. However for Bangladesh they are using term ‘the Khilafah’s soldiers in Bengal.’ It shows that DAESH have its presence in Bengal in this way India will lies vulnerably sandwiched between Wilayat Khurasan in the West and Bengal’s fighters in the east. Such scenario can facilitate guerilla attacks inside India from both sides. 3. An interview given by the Amir of Bengal to Dabiq, in which he said that we have two step strategies for India. The first stage would require Wilayat-e-Khurasan and the fighters in Bengal to create a condition of Tawahhush (Fear and Chaos) with the help of existing local mujahidin. The second stage would involve gaining territorial control of India.

4 www.cscr.pk 4. The final phase seems little lengthy which is colluding with local elements to create chaos. But first the attitude of Daesh is very important to understand towards LeT and AQIS.

Threats to DAESH in India

The relations between AQIS and Daesh are that of antagonists as Daesh called Ayman al-Zawahiri ‘a leader with no real authority’ in pages of Dabiq. The relations between the two are vice-versa as a senior AQ operative in an interview to the AQIS magazine Resurgence (summer 2015 edition) gave some remarks about Daesh. He said that Daesh is being built on falsehood… working for its own interests at the expense of the greater interest of the Ummah.

Ansar-ut Tawhid fi Bilad al-Hind (AuT) is another local India outfit which started online support for Daesh during 2015. The second one is Khalifa-e-Hind (Soldiers of the Indian Caliphate), this group was involved in sending the recruits in Iraq and Syria.

Current Daesh Activities inside India

In an appeal to the Indian Muslims, Daesh vowed to avenge the deaths of Muslims killed in riots in Gujarat during Modi’s era. The spokesperson of Daesh said that those Muslims who are living under suppression and Hindu rule who worships the cows, trees and sun must travel to the ‘Caliphate.’ Abu Salman al-, an Indian fighter in Homs said that, “In this land you get to have hatred for the Kuffar, in this land you get to perform Jihad.”

Another fighter also pointed out that Daesh will come to India to liberate Muslims and avenge the violence perpetrated against them in 2002 in Western State of Gujarat as well as in Kashmir and destruction of mosque by Hindu zealots in 1992. Both supported Daesh held territory and said that Indian Muslims must move here, as ‘in this land your religion is safe, in this land Allah’s Law is the highest, in this land you have nothing that stops you from doing good deeds, from doing Da’wah, from preaching Islam, in this land your life, your honor your property is protected.’

Hindu-Muslim Relations in India

Nowhere in the world other than India is the life and property of a particular community (Muslims) so insecure only because of its affinity with a particular religion (Islam). The Indian Muslims are persistently under persecution and harassment due to their religious identity. The Indian Muslim community remains the most favored targets of activists. Several slogans such as “Ghar Wapsi”, “Love Jihad”, “” and the most recent “Gou Raksha” have been utilized to brutalize the community.

The discriminatory behavior of Indian government towards the Muslims of India and Indian Held Kashmir (IHK) is on the rise since the BJP came to power. The political wing of the , the BJP is now openly subscribing to the RSS ideology. Therefore, extremist elements of Indian society are picking up the courage to take the law in their own hand to the peril of Muslims. As a result, incidents of communal violence against Muslims have increased over a period of one year.

The denial of legitimate entitlements to Indian Muslims have attained such a proportion that Vice President Hamid Ansari has publically called upon the BJP government to take “affirmative action” to enforce rights of Indian Muslims as Indian constitution grants special “reservation” (quota) in government jobs, educational institution etc. He said these rights were admissible in Indian state practice but denied to Muslims. He gave example of many reports commissioned by successive governments and added that India’s Muslims faced issue such as identity and security, education and empowerment, equitable share in state funds and a fair share in decision making. He made these remarks at the golden jubilee celebrations of a Muslim entity, the All India Majlis-e-Mushawwarat (consultative meeting). Indian newspaper “” reported on September 02 that the Vice-President came under attack from the BJP and the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) on this count. VHP general secretary Surendra Jain said the Vice-President’s remarks were “communal” and did not reflect the dignity of his office. BJP general secretary Kailash Vijaywargiya termed the Vice- President’s remarks as not commensurate with the constitutional position that he occupies. “A Vice-President’s post is a constitutional position pertaining to the entire country and not to a particular community”. He added that Muslims

5 www.cscr.pk enjoyed more constitutional right than in many Muslim countries and went as far as to say that “even the country’s partition was accepted to appease Muslims”.

There are various categories of marginalized segment of Indian citizens including Dalits, Mahadalits, Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes (OBC), Extremely Backward Classes (EBC), etc.

Vice President Hamid Ansari had merely asked government to take definite steps for rights of Muslims and other neglected classes in India. He had pointed out that caste discrimination existed among Muslim communities in India and “corrective strategies therefore have to be sought on category-differentiation admissible in Indian state practice and denied to Muslims”. Ansari had talked about recognizing scheduled castes among Muslims and not reservations for Muslims on religious grounds. The statement was about the things already stated in the Sachar Commission Report. According to the report, only 8 per cent of urban Muslims are part of the formal sector as against 21pc of all Indian city dwellers. 31pc of Muslims live below the poverty line, close to the 35pc for Dalits and Adivasis. And Muslim income is falling: it was 77.5pc of average Hindu earning in 1987 compared to 75pc in 1999.The privilege of reservation has been denied to Indian Muslim on the pretext of their overall number in India. Release of politically sensitive religious census data, ahead of elections in states such as Bihar, Assam and is also aimed at creating the bogey of the so-called “Muslim dominance”. The and the Communist Party of India have supported Mr Ansari’s demand.

Several reports including the Sachar Committee Report (2006) have highlighted the plight of the Muslims; indicating that on most socio-economic indicators, Muslim were on the margins or even worse than the scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. The Kundu Report (2014) commissioned to evaluate the implementation of the Sachar Commission had concluded that ‘serious’ bottle-necks remained.” Quota is increasingly becoming a highly sensitive issue in the Indian political landscape. In August, the Patel community of Gujarat protested, in large numbers, demanding reservation of jobs for them. Some backward communities for their socio-economic and political empowerment have cleverly utilized provision of reservation. Moreover, the mainstream political parties have also exploited the issues for political gains. Support for Muslim reservation, however, is almost negligible. While Congress has paid lip service to the idea, BJP is aggressively against it.

Communal riots, which started in India after the establishment of the Rashtriya Swaywak Sangh (RSS) in 1926, has become a regular phenomenon in Indian society. According to the Home Ministry, Government of India, there were 13,356 serious anti-Muslim riots in 39 years between 1954 and 1992; that is almost one riot daily. As J.B. D'Souza observes, "It is a matter of shame that in these 47 years [of independence] we have lost in communal riots many times the number of lives lost in the 150 years when the British ruled us and we accused them of a divide and rule policy."

The incidents of communal disturbance flare up sometimes on flimsy grounds and mostly according as the communal forces of Hindutva wish to organize it in pursuance of their long-term plan deliberately chalked out for annihilation of the Muslims. Communal riots in India is a one-way traffic not only because ofa 7:1 Hindu-Muslim ratio, but also because of the active participation of the forces of law and order (almost all non-Muslims) with their co-religionists in accomplishing their heinous act of butchering the innocent and unarmed Muslims and also in plundering their property. This is a unique phenomenon with the Government of India where security forces deployed officially to protect the victims of hooliganism actively cooperate with the hooligans in carrying on their odious aims and that also very much with the full knowledge and logistic support of

6 www.cscr.pk the government. It is doubtful if there exists any single example of such an organized hooliganism in the civilized world.

During the riots that took place in Meerut in 1987, UP's Provincial Armed Constabulary (PAC) exposed its brutality of killing the innocent Muslims in the ugliest form. They picked up the young Muslim boys from their houses, packed them in jeeps and buses, took them outside the city, gunned them down and threw the dead bodies into the nearby river. In Muradabad in 1980, the PAC opened fire on the Muslims who had assembled to celebrate Eid festival and perform their Eid Prayer collectively. During the riots that took place in Ahmadabad more people were burnt alive than died of stabbing. They were burnt not because they were caught in fire. The technique was to set fire to a group of houses belonging to the Muslims and as men, women and children rushed out, they were caught hold of, their hands and feet were tied, and then they were thrown into the fire. In these incidents, the leading role was played by the police.

The Babri Masjid riots and the Gujarat pogrom, classified as genocide by independent observers are the most well- known of organized violence against the Indian Muslims. The state was found complicit by many groups in the in both cases but were left off by courts due to doctored evidence and intimidation of witnesses. Narendar Damordas Modi, the current Indian Prime Minister was the Chief Minister of Gujarat state during the riots was one of the main accused but has been let off on the grounds that while there is evidence enough to be indicted but not sufficient enough for him to stand trial.

Under his rule Muslims have faced a new form of violence in the form of “Gau Raksha”(Cow Protection), already state laws that ban the consumption of beef are being enacted which many agree on are targeting Muslims. But not far behind are violent groups claiming to protect cows through murder.

On May 30 2015, in Rajasthan's Birloka village, Abdul Ghaffar Qureshi who ran a meat selling business was lynched to death by a mob in his neighborhood. According to The Hindu, Qureshi settled down in Birloka for the past 35 years and his struggle began when his neighbor began objecting to his business. The Municipality rented a field to dump the cow carcass in the nearby Kumhari village, and routinely over 200 carcasses were dumped there.

Soon, the images generated rumours in social media that Muslim butchers were responsible for all the cow carcass in the fields. These rumours spread like wildfire where thousands gathered and destroyed his house and severely beaten him to death.

On September 28,2015 the infamous “Dadri lynching” took place in which a 50-year-old man, Mohammad Akhlaq, was beaten to death and his 22-year-old son severely injured on Monday night in UP’s Dadri, allegedly by residents of Bisara village, after rumors spread in the area about the family storing and consuming beef, police said. On 3 October, a man named Vishal, the son of a local BJP leader Sanjay Rana, was arrested in connection to the case. The lynching of Mohammad Akhlaq in neighbouring Gautam Budh Nagar district on September 28 was a “well planned conspiracy”, a ground report by a civil society group later found out. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has come under strong criticism for not condemning the incident. Former IHK Chief Minister Omar Abdullah tweeted “why there was no outright condemnation of the Dadri lynching?”

But it is not only through mob violence that Muslims are targeted. terror groups have often unleashed bombings against the Muslim community within India as well as visiting Pakistani civilians. The Sangh Parivar was found several times using explosive devices during different times. For instance during the Gujarat riots in 2002, several members of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and the confessed to producing and distributing explosives to Sangh Parivar cadres in order to attack Muslims and their properties. Haresh Bhatt, who was a local leader in the Bajrang Dal in 2002 and is now the BJP MLA from Godhra, till the riots a Congress stronghold, made a never-before admission that bombs were made at a firecracker factory he owned. He has described how they assembled country-made explosives, including rocket launchers. These were then distributed to murderous mobs in Ahmedabad. Similarly, Dhawal Jayanti Patel of the VHP used dynamite in his quarries in Sabarkantha. With the help of an old RSS member, Amrudh Patel, who was an expert in handling explosives, bombs were made in the quarries using dynamite and RDX-based powder.

In December 2002, an improvised explosive device was found in the Bhopal railway station evidently intended to address Muslims who come to the city to attend a Tablighi gathering. Exactly one year later, a second bomb was found in the

7 www.cscr.pk area Lamba Khera, on the outskirts of Bhopal, on the last day of a meeting Talblighi Jamaat. Both devices were made with commercial nitroglycerine-based explosive, packed in a long section of four-inch slotted pipe - the type used, for example, tubewells. The explosive was tied to a controller made up of quartz alarm clock and a mobile phone detonator. Researchers may, in the coming years, identify the device: it would be used, with minor modifications, in the Mecca Masjid and Ajmer Sharif shrine. Madhya Pradesh police soon developed information linking the attacks in Bhopal local Hindutva activists tried Ramnarayan Kalsangram and Sunil Joshi. Both suspects were, police sources said, questioned. There was no hard evidence linking the attempted attacks, yet former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijay Singh announced he had evidence of the involvement of members of the Bajrang Dal, an affiliate of the RSS, in terrorism.

Two explosions rocked two coaches of around midnight on February 18, 2007. Sixty-eight people died in the fire that followed and dozens wounded. The incident has been allegedly linked to , a splinter group that had broken away from the Sangh Parivar. In November 2008, it was reported that the Squad (ATS) suspected the attacks were related to Prasad Shrikant Purohit, an Indian army officer and member of Abhinav Bharat. Purohit said he had "infiltrated" the Abhinav Bharat. During a military Court of Inquiry, 59 witnesses testified in court, along with the officers who testified that Purohit was doing its job of gathering intelligence inputs by the infiltration of extremist organizations. On January 8, 2011, a Pracharak of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), confessed that he had participated in the bombing of Samjhauta Express, a statement he later claimed to have performed under duress. Aseemanand claimed he was tortured into giving a false statement.

The Ajmer Dargah blast occurred on October 11, 2007, outside the Dargah (shrine) of Sufi Saint Moinuddin Chishti in Ajmer, Rajasthan, allegedly by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh organization Hindutva (RSS) and their groups. The October 22, 2010, accused of five authors, including four said to belong to the source, were arrested in connection with the explosion. Swami Aseemanand, in his confession implicated the then general secretary for ordering the terrorist attack. Bhavesh Patel, another accused in the attacks, has corroborated these statements, but later said the Interior Minister forced him to implicate RSS leaders. Some other senior Congress leaders were also mentioned.

On September 29, 2008, three bombs exploded in the states of Gujarat and Maharashtra killing 8 people and wounding 80. During the investigation in Maharashtra, the Abhinav Bharat was accused of involvement in the attacks. Three of the detainees were identified as Sadhvi , Kalsanghra Shiv Narayan Gopal Singh and Shyam Sahu Bhawarlal. The three were produced before the court of the chief judicial magistrate in Nashik, which returned them to custody until November 3. On October 28, the , came out in support of the defendants say the arrests were purely political. Lending credence to this, the party chief said a possible conflict of interest in the political 8 www.cscr.pk rivalry of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) controls the relevant ministry.

The Army officer Shrikant Prasad Purohit was also accused of being involved in the advice blast.He has claimed that he was being falsely framed for political reasons because intelligence is sensitive nature concerning the operations of the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI ) and the Inter-Services Intelligence of Pakistan, which could embarrass some sectors.

Major Bomb attacks by groups targeting Muslims

The Mecca Masjid bombing occurred on May 18, 2007 inside the Mecca Masjid, a mosque in . Fourteen people died in the immediate aftermath. The National Investigation Agency, Central Bureau of Investigation and Anti-Terrorist Squad (India) questioned the former members of the RSS November 19, 2010, the Central Bureau of Investigation Swami Aseemanand produced before the court in connection with the explosion. But later he retracted the confession citing mental and physical pressure to provide that confession.

The Abhinav Bharat followed a complex path of bomb attacks, they had completely separated their organization into different cells along the basis of functions, for e.g. they had a separate financing department who acquired funds through front organizations and a separate cell for making bombs. The bomb attacks were either carried out by rogue cadres of the Bajrang Dal or other Sangh Parivar organizations and in some cases gullible Muslims were used in order to shift blame on Muslim terrorists. Col Purohit was the main stay of the Abhinav Bharat as he was in charge of providing material for the explosives through means of stealing RDX from Indian army stores of which he had 60 kg.

India’s North East (The Eight Sisters):

Violence in the form of is unfortunately not something new to North East India or the Eight Sisters where insurgency and a struggle for independence have been waging since the 1970s, at times violent and also in a peaceful way. Historically, the Eight Sisters have never been a part of India proper while attempts were made to assimilate it into the rest of India by different powers. The Mughals were briefly successful before relinquishing control in the face of guerilla warfare by the local populace. The British were finally able to assimilate this area into their Empire after defeating the Burmese and concluding the Treaty of Yandabo.

After the partition of Pakistan and India, the Eight Sisters were made a part of India by the British. Many question the partition boundaries drawn by the Radcliffe commission who allegedly “drew borders in such a manner as to support British interests”. Assam at that time contained many different groups such as Assamese, Bodos, Bengali Muslims and others. Later on, Assam was further divided into modern day Assam, Nagaland, Meghlaya and Mizoram. This was done to fulfill “tribal aspirations”, however it has not been enough to end campaigns for freedom from the Indian state by the people of that area.

While currently the whole unrest in Assam has been blamed on the “illegal Bangladeshi Muslim immigrants”, the reality has more to do with government failure and the spread of Hindutva extremism. The initial conflict started not because of the much propagated “Muslim infiltration” but between Hindu groups over linguistics resulting in language riots in

9 www.cscr.pk the 1960s. During nearly the same period India was using this same area to host, train and support terrorist elements known as the Mukti Bahini to wage cross border terror attacks in the then East Pakistan. Later on, it was used as a launching pad for the Shanti Bahini to destabilize the sovereign state of Bangladesh.

Later on in the 70s, with turmoil in East Pakistan and the formation of Bangladesh, tensions also erupted in the various freedom movements of the Eight Sisters primarily Assam. This movement was “not because of the basic Assamese fear of losing jobs to but losing their land”. The target of this movement despite widespread belief was not “Bangladeshi infiltrators” but “outsiders”. This was the reason the first casualties were not Muslims but twoBodo brothers gunned down by police as they fled vigilantes of the All Assam Students Union who had come to evict them. However, while this movement detested all “outsiders” yet it was not before long the local Muslims began to feel its wrath.

Bengali Muslims, who had lived in Assam since the 15th century and even before, suddenly became illegal immigrants overnight as the bogey of the “Bangladeshi Infiltrator” was set up. This was a label to be used as a pretext for merciless atrocities to be committed upon them. The accumulation of nationalist feeling and social frustration culminated in the “Nellie massacre” in which according to unofficial estimates 5000 Muslims lost their lives. The number of deaths in this massive act of murder and carnage surpasses the combined death toll of the Babri Masjid riots and Gujarat pogrom. Yet despite the passage of 31 years not a single person has been punished and successive governments have turned a blind eye to this mass murder.

Such indifference suits the central Indian government well. The Muslims of Assam are mainly impoverished peasants, usually at the end of the social ladder and thus do not have the power to be of concern. Also the rise of Hindutva would help this oppression of minorities to carry on without political fallout as well as deterring any political will to stop the suppression of Muslims.

It also helps India in such a way that the efforts of Assamese and others are diverted into brutalizing Muslims instead of into the movement for Assam’s freedom. Assam is India’s north eastern part and is of great strategic importance to India. Its geopolitical situation is of vital importance to the Indian state. Additionally Assam is highly rich in resources. It is no coincidence that India’s first and longest running oil well is located at Digboi Assam, along with its largest oil fields. Yet despite the abundance of resources the common man in Assam has not gained much at all. These facts make it clear that the Indians will resort to any course of action, in order to continue exploitation of the Assamese resources and occupation of Assam.

India has reacted in a typical manner to the demand for self-determination in the Eight Sisters with characteristic brutality. New has utilized brutal methods like and rape to suppress the North Eastern quest for freedom. India has also used dirty war tactics like “kill and dump” and secret killings of alleged separatists and their families in Assam.

The making of a foreign demon in the form of the Bangladeshi silent invasion is also a salient feature of Indian Perception Management. This tactic is used to delegitimize justified liberation movements in the eyes of local and international audiences. In Kashmir, armed fighters fighting for UN-sanctioned self-determination are labeled Pakistani infiltrators. The combating the Indian state was termed an ISI plan to destabilize India. Maoists fighting the exploitation of their lands are said to be linked to Europe by the Indian government. India, who formed and supported the Tamil Tigers only to have them turn on it, quickly laid the blame of Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination on the CIA & Mossad.

The Indian strategy to keep the freedom movements of the Eight Sisters divided and their potential focused on a bogey has backfired, not only Muslims but other minorities of both ethnicity and religious beliefs have also been attacked and there has been no slowing in the freedom movements of the Eight Sisters determination to be rid of Indian rule. While New Delhi, tried to claim a media victory through signing of a peace accord with the Naga Group NSCN (I-M) in August 2015, the accord was rejected by other movements like the NSCN (K) who were behind the 4 June 2015 killings of 18 Army jawans of 6 Dogra Regiment in Chandel district of Manipur which was marked as the biggest attack on the Indian Army after Kargil war of 1999.

Projection of the Future

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It will be reasonable to assume that after the continuous setbacks that Daesh is facing in both its stronghold of Syria/Iraq and Afghanistan, it will seek to establish its presence in more suitable locations. Currently, Bangladesh is a prime location for Daesh to grow it may try to implement the propping up a pseudo state via captured areas like in Afghanistan in the jungles of Northeast India as well as Bangladesh. However, before embarking on such a campaign it will likely unleash devastating attacks for twofold purposes; to establish its brand as well as to create a polarizing atmosphere to grow.

For that purpose it will focus primarily on both Bangladesh and India. In Bangladesh it is likely that there will be an increase in terror attacks mostly on soft targets by Daesh affiliates. Foreign nationals mainly Westerners will be the main target as Daesh will seek to destabilize the Bangladeshi state. Daesh will have a large base of recruits owing to the suppression of moderate Islamists by the Sheikh Hasina government.

Infrequent attacks by Daesh could cause cities in Bangladesh to suffer the “Terrorism Tax” . A terrorism tax is an accumulation of excess costs inflicted on a city's stakeholders by acts of terrorism. These include direct costs inflicted on the city by terrorists (systems sabotage) and indirect costs due to the security/ insurance/policy/etc. changes needed to protect against attacks. A terrorism tax above a certain level will force the city to transition to a lower market equilibrium. As most of the expat population in Bangladesh are situated in its economic hubs, acts of terror will cause an adverse impact on Bangladesh’s economy.

India too will likely be targeted as Daesh will seek to polarize the Hindu dominated Indian society against its largest minority, Muslims. Daesh will have a plethora of soft targets to choose from, it could easily go for eye catching terror attacks on foreign nationals in India. The power centers of India in its Western parts like New Delhi and Mumbai are far off and too well protected for Daesh cadres to carry out a terror attack. Additionally. Their distance and social conditions make it unfeasible for Daesh members to successfully carry out their deadly actions.

Daesh will likely strike closer to home. In this context, the highest threat could be to the popular tourist destination of Darjeeling whose scenic environment lures many tourists from around the world. Its lucrativeness is also strengthened by the fact that it is situated right next to the Bangladeshi border making it easy for Daesh affiliates in Bangladesh to infiltrate across the border and escape back. Another vulnerable target will be the eastern port of India of Kolkata once known as Calcutta. Kolkata is the capital of the Indian state of West Bengal. Located on the east bank of the Hooghly River, it is the principal commercial, cultural,

11 www.cscr.pk and educational center of East India, while the Port of Kolkata is India's oldest operating port and its sole major riverine port. In the fiscal year 2013-14, Kolkata port handled 41.386 million metric tons (45.620 million short tons) of cargo. This is significantly less than 53.143 million metric tons (58.580 million short tons) of cargo it handled in 2005-06. However, the number of vessels handled at Kolkata Port during 2013-2014 was the highest among all Indian Major Ports.

Its economic significance alone makes it a desirable target for militant groups. It will be more so for Daesh and its affiliates based in Bangladesh or the North East as it is in the same vicinity. A terrorism tax on Kolkata will be sufficient enough to stunt the Indian economy and bring eastern India to its knees. The attack could come in a Mumbai style raid or bombings of sensitive areas in the port or city, additionally Daesh elements could fire rockets from the nearby wilderness into the city sowing panic and fear.

The other that Daesh may choose to attack through either Fedayeen assaults or bomb blasts will be Hindu religious festivals. A prime target is the Kumbh which is asserted to be among the largest religious festivals of the world. The is a mass Hindu pilgrimage of faith in which Hindus gather to bathe in a sacred river. Traditionally, four fairs are widely recognized as the Kumbh : the Kumbh Mela, the Kumbh Mela, the Nashik-Trimbakeshwar Simhastha and the Simhastha, although priests at other places have also claimed their local fairs to be Kumbh Melas. These four fairs are held periodically at one of the following places by rotation: Haridwar, Allahabad (Prayaga), Nashik district (Nashik and ) and Ujjain. The main festival site is located on the banks of a river: the () at Haridwar; the confluence (Sangam) of the Ganges and the Yamuna and the invisible Sarasvati at Allahabad; the Godavari at Nashik; and the Shipra at Ujjain. Bathing in these rivers is thought to cleanse a person of all sins.

As many as 120 million people were reported to have attended the Kumbh Mela in 2013. Due to overcrowding, a terror attack with explosives or guns can easily lead to a horrifying number of casualties. These mass attacks could easily lead to massive anti Muslim riots like that of Gujarat in 2002 all around Northern India. Additionally, Hindutva terror groups who often use such religious festivals for meetings and recruitment could use this as a pretext for increasing their attacks on the already beleaguered Muslim community. This could easily radicalize segments of the Muslim minority who would turn to Daesh in a similar manner the Sunnis of Iraq turned to Daesh against the Shia government.

It can be asserted that in such a scenario that Hindutva terrorists who already are other Non-Hindu targets throughout India, would significantly increase their activities and create a cycle of violence that would aggravate day by day leading to widespread destabilization of the Indian economy.

Conclusion

Daesh in both Bangladesh and India is a looming threat. The state oppression in Bangladesh raises the risks of Daesh’s rise in Bangladesh owing to the clampdown on moderate Islamists as well as other political and social forces. The Bangladeshi indifference to Daesh’s presence in Bangladesh is only hampering efforts to tackle the deadly militant group. Bangladesh is at the most risks as attacks on soft targets mostly foreigners will cause an expat outflow and adverse the Bangladeshi economy. Conditions in India especially with the rise of Hindutva will also aid Daesh in establishing a foothold in the IndoPak subcontinent. This could sow the seeds for a destructive religious war encompassing the whole region as well.

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Jawad Falak has acquired his degree in IR from NDU and is also an ACCA. He is currently working as DD Operations CSCR and can be reached at [email protected] and he tweets @JawadFalak

Hassan Riaz The writer is an International Relations graduate from National Defence University,Islamabad. He has been working with Pakistan House and SASSI in the past, currently he is working with CSCR. He has completed his thesis on 'US Nuclear Deal its implication on region'. His areas of interests includes domestic problems of Pakistan and on going turmoil in Middle East generally and Iran specifically.

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