Project on Electricity Sector Master Plan Study in Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka
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Ministry of Power and Renewable Energy (MPRE) Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) Project on Electricity Sector Master Plan Study in Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka Final Report March, 2018 Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. (TEPCO HD) TEPCO Power Grid, Incorporated (TEPCO PG) Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd. (TEPSCO) Project on Electricity Sector Master Plan Study in Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka Final Report Contents List of Figures .................................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables .................................................................................................................................... xiii Chapter 0. Summary ............................................................................................................................. 1 0.1 Viewpoints and Targets of Electricity Sector Master Plan ................................................... 1 0.2 Primary Energy ..................................................................................................................... 2 0.2.1 Fuel Price Forecast in WEO2016 ....................................................................................... 2 0.2.2 Possibility of introducing domestic natural gas and LNG .................................................. 3 0.2.3 Renewable Energy .............................................................................................................. 4 0.3 Demand Forecast up to 2040 ................................................................................................ 5 0.3.1 Change of Daily Load Profile ............................................................................................. 5 0.3.2 Recommended Demand Forecast ....................................................................................... 6 0.4 Environmental and Social Considerations ............................................................................ 7 0.5 Long-term Power Development Plans .................................................................................. 8 0.5.1 Concept of Formulating Long-term Power Development Plans ......................................... 8 0.5.2 Comparison of Each Scenario ............................................................................................. 8 0.5.3 Recommended Proposal ................................................................................................... 11 0.6 Transmission Development Plan ........................................................................................ 12 0.6.1 Transmission lines required for each power development scenario ................................. 12 0.6.2 Maximum Capacity of Allowable Generator Trip ............................................................ 14 0.7 Improving Reliability of Distribution System .................................................................... 15 0.8 Proposal of Investment Plan and Financial Plan ................................................................. 15 0.9 Action Plan and Road Map ................................................................................................. 16 Chapter 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Background to the Survey .................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Purpose of the Survey ........................................................................................................ 1-1 1.3 Area in Which to Conduct the Survey ............................................................................... 1-1 1.4 Conducting Organizations of the Partner Country ............................................................. 1-1 Chapter 2. Energy Sector and Electricity Sector in Sri Lanka .......................................................... 2-1 2.1 Energy Sector ..................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Public Sector Institutions ................................................................................................. 2-1 2.1.2 Private Sector Institutions ................................................................................................ 2-4 2.2 Electricity Sector ................................................................................................................ 2-5 Chapter 3. Viewpoints and Targets of Electricity Sector Master Plan .............................................. 3-1 3.1 Current Status of Electricity Sector ................................................................................... 3-1 3.1.1 Review of Current Electricity Sector Master Plan (MP2006) ......................................... 3-1 3.1.2 Current Status of Electricity Sector ................................................................................. 3-3 3.2 Viewpoints and Targets of Electricity Sector Master Plan ................................................ 3-5 Chapter 4. Primary Energy ................................................................................................................ 4-1 4.1 Primary Energy Policy ....................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Primary Energy for Power Development ........................................................................... 4-4 4.2.1 Primary Energy Demand and supply transition ............................................................... 4-4 4.2.2 Forecast for future demand ............................................................................................ 4-12 4.2.3 Available amount of fossil fuel imports and power generation ..................................... 4-16 4.2.4 Price forecasts for various types of fuel ......................................................................... 4-17 4.2.5 Fuel Price Forecast in WEO2016 .................................................................................. 4-21 4.3 Possibility of introducing domestic natural gas and LNG ............................................... 4-22 4.3.1 Domestic natural gas ...................................................................................................... 4-22 i Project on Electricity Sector Master Plan Study in Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka Final Report 4.3.2 Possibility of introducing LNG ...................................................................................... 4-24 4.3.3 Use of natural gas (NG) other than for power generation.............................................. 4-30 4.4 Renewable Energy ........................................................................................................... 4-32 4.4.1 Introduction of Renewable Energy ................................................................................ 4-32 4.4.2 Introduction Policies and Structure for Renewable Energy ........................................... 4-33 4.4.3 Introduction Potential for Renewable Energy ................................................................ 4-34 4.4.4 Introduction Potential for Hydropower .......................................................................... 4-34 4.4.5 Introduction Potential for Windpower ........................................................................... 4-37 4.4.6 Introduction Potential for Biomass Power ..................................................................... 4-40 4.4.7 Introduction Potential for Solar Power .......................................................................... 4-42 4.4.8 Supply Capacity for Renewable Energy ........................................................................ 4-46 Chapter 5. Demand Forecast ............................................................................................................. 5-1 5.1 Current Demand Forecast in Current Plan ......................................................................... 5-1 5.1.1 Current Demand Forecast ................................................................................................ 5-1 5.1.2 Validity of and Issues regarding Current Power Demand Forecast ................................. 5-2 5.2 Related Information on Electric Power Demand Forecast ................................................. 5-2 5.2.1 Actual Records ................................................................................................................. 5-2 5.2.2 Economic Policy (GDP Growth Rate), Population/Growth Rate Forecast...................... 5-7 5.2.3 Characteristics of Demand by Province and Trends of Increase ................................... 5-10 5.2.4 Demand Side Management ............................................................................................ 5-12 5.2.5 Railway Electrification .................................................................................................. 5-15 5.2.6 Introduction of Rapid Transit System (RTS) ................................................................. 5-19 5.2.7 Popularization of Electric Vehicles ............................................................................... 5-19 5.2.8 Demand Increase in Large Scale Development Plans and Large Customers’ Plans ..... 5-23 5.2.9 Air Temperature ............................................................................................................