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Organizing for a Strategic Ideas Campaign to Counter Ideological Challenges to U.S. National Security

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Organizing for a Strategic Ideas Campaign to Counter Ideological Challenges to U.S. National Security SECURITY & FOREIGN AFFAIRS / BRIEFING PAPER Organizing for a Strategic Ideas Campaign to Counter Ideological Challenges to U.S. National Security Douglas J. Feith William A. Galston Abram N. Shulsky April 2012 Organizing for a Strategic Ideas Campaign to Counter Ideological Challenges to U.S. National Security Douglas J. Feith Senior Fellow and Director Center for National Security Studies Hudson Institute William A. Galston Ezra K. Zilkha Chair and Senior Fellow Governance Studies Brookings Institution Abram N. Shulsky Senior Fellow Hudson Institute © 2012 Hudson Institute is a nonpartisan policy research organization dedicated to innovative research and analysis promoting security, prosperity, and freedom. Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 U.S. Government Concerns ................................................................................... 3 Purpose of This Study ............................................................................................ 5 Ideology as Terrorism’s “Center of Gravity” ..................................................... 7 The Record So Far ................................................................................................. 8 Recent Studies of U.S. Government Efforts ..................................................... 12 Organizational Proposals ................................................................................... 14 Conclusion and Next Steps ................................................................................. 32 Appendix: Ideas Campaigns and Liberal Democratic Theory ........................ 33 “Blowback” ....................................................................................................... 33 Government Involvement in Religious Issues .................................................... 34 Government Participation in the Ideological “Marketplace of Ideas” ............. 35 Doctrine—Countering Hostile Ideologies ......................................................... 37 Preliminary Consideration: Taking Ideology Seriously in a National Security Context .............................................................................................................. 37 Countering Hostile Ideologies: Some Previous Efforts .................................... 41 Survey of Islamism ............................................................................................ 42 National Security Threats Posed by Islamist Extremism ................................... 55 Strategy for Addressing the Problem ................................................................ 57 Specific Methods for Implementing the Strategy ............................................... 60 Training and Doctrine Function ....................................................................... 69 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 71 Bibliography of Academic Works on Islamism and Terrorism ..................... 72 Introduction The 9/11 attacks, which jolted Americans into recognizing that Islamist terrorists considered themselves at war with the United States, provoked a multifaceted U.S. response. Military, intelligence, law enforcement, financial, and diplomatic tools were all brought to bear. From the outset, some senior U.S. officials argued that the war on terrorism should include a serious effort to counter the ideology motivating America's radical Islamist enemies. Indeed, some officials have argued that the “battle of ideas” is not simply important, but is essential to victory.1 Yet no such serious effort was made by either the Bush administration or the Obama administration. Commentators across the political spectrum have noted that the U.S. government has done poorly over the last decade in its efforts to counter hostile ideologies. This has been the conclusion of studies done inside and outside the government.2 In the fight against jihadist terrorism, military action and law enforcement cannot be decisive. As valuable as it is to capture and kill terrorists and to disrupt their finances, the United States will achieve victory only if it can prevent people from becoming our terrorist enemies to begin with. Challenging the ideological underpinnings of Islamist extremism—discrediting the beliefs that motivate individuals to commit terrorism and to provide financial and other support for it— is a key to reducing the terrorism threat to the point where it might someday be contained by ordinary law-enforcement methods. Recent political upheavals in the Arab world have widened American concerns about Islamist extremism. The elections in Egypt and Tunisia tell much the same story: while the United States might wish to do business exclusively with 1 See Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, National Military Strategic Plan for the War on Terrorism (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Defense, February 2006), available at http://www.defense.gov/qdr/docs/2005-01-25-Strategic-Plan.pdf (accessed December 19, 2011). “Ideology is the component most critical to extremist networks and movements and sustains all other capabilities. This critical resource is the enemy’s strategic center of gravity, and removing it is key to creating a global antiterrorist environment” (p.18). The document was issued originally in classified form in March 2005 by General Richard Myers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and published in an unclassified version February 1, 2006, by General Peter Pace, the successor Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. 2 A 2009 RAND report, based on a review of current literature, begins as follows: “Countless studies, articles, and opinion pieces have announced that U.S. strategic communications and public diplomacy are in crisis and inadequate to meet current demand. There is consensus that such capabilities are critical and that they need to be improved.” Christopher Paul, “Whither Strategic Communication? A Survey of Current Proposals and Recommendations,” RAND Occasional Paper, RAND Corp., Santa Monica, CA, 2009, p. 1, available at http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP250.pdf. (Cited hereafter as RAND report.) 1 the secular or liberal forces within these societies, their popular support and “street cred” are limited. For the next few years, at least, these countries’ Islamist majorities will determine both the fate of their democracy and the extent to which their policies oppose American principles and interests. The United States has no choice but to encourage the kind of intra-Islamist discussion that might sharpen the divisions between uncompromising hard-liners and forces willing to make their peace with democracy and pluralism. In Egypt, there are some signs that the Brotherhood may be more comfortable forging a governing alliance with the liberal parties than with the Salafists, whose strong electoral showing surprised even seasoned observers of the Egyptian scene. After Islamists won popular elections in Tunisia, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told an audience of young Tunisians: “There are those here in Tunisia and elsewhere who question whether Islamist politics can really be compatible with democracy. Well, Tunisia has a chance to answer that question affirmatively, and to demonstrate there is no contradiction.” In our judgment, this kind of openness to democratic possibilities is a proper basis for American policy—unless the facts on the ground supply a negative answer to Secretary Clinton’s question. It is in America's interests to do what it can to encourage a positive answer, including through a strategic ideas campaign of the type described here. Besides, for now there is no practical alternative. 2 U.S. Government Concerns A U.S. government capability to counter hostile ideology through a “strategic ideas” campaign would pay dividends across the board in the national security field. Weakening radical Islamism and influencing Islamist organizations to reject radicalism would strengthen the U.S position in the Arab world and improve chances for achieving key foreign policy goals there. As Islamist organizations gain power, they will have a rendezvous with reality, in which they become responsible for governing and responding to popular economic, social, and political demands under challenging circumstances. This is likely to be a time of intellectual and political turmoil for them, and the ability to influence them away from radical Islamism would be a great asset for U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. government's deficiencies in this field are of consequence because Islamist extremism remains a major national security problem. According to the Obama administration's National Security Strategy: . There is no greater threat to the American people than weapons of mass destruction, particularly the danger posed by the pursuit of nuclear weapons by violent extremists and their proliferation to additional states.3 But nuclear terrorism is only one aspect of the larger danger posed by Islamist extremism. The following broader characterization of the threat, from the Bush administration's National Strategy for Combating Terrorism, remains true: Today, the principal terrorist enemy confronting the United States is a transnational movement of extremist organizations, networks, and indi- viduals—and their state and non-state supporters—which have in common that they exploit Islam and use terrorism for ideological ends.4 The Obama administration
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