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European Union Democracy Promotion in Central Asia

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European Union Democracy Promotion in Central Asia European Union Democracy Promotion in Central Asia Implementation in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan Aizhan Sharshenova Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) The University of Leeds School of Politics and International Studies December 2015 The candidate confirms that the work submitted is her own and that appropriate credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. The right of Aizhan (Aijan) Sharshenova to be identified as Author of this work has been asserted by her in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. © 2015 The University of Leeds and Aizhan (Aijan) Sharshenova - ii - Acknowledgements I owe my deepest gratitude to my supervisors - Professor Gordon Crawford and Dr Simon Lightfoot. Gordon and Simon provided excellent advice and the kindest support throughout this journey. I would also like to thank the following organisations and an individual, whose financial contributions were of great help: The School of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds, for the International fees scholarship; The Open Society Foundations (OSF) and Mr George Soros for the Global Supplementary Grant Programme Scholarship provided in 2011-2014; The University Association for Contemporary European Studies (UACES) for the financial support of the research trip to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in 2013. In addition I am grateful to the anonymous interviewees in Bishkek, Brussels and Astana for their honesty, openness and kindness. It has been a great pleasure to meet each of them and learn of their perspectives and views. Finally, I wish to thank my Mom and Matthew, whose unconditional love and support are immeasurable and invaluable. My special thanks goes to Matthew for encouraging me during the most intense research periods. I dedicate this thesis to Mom, Ainura Sharshenova, a devoted educator, who has inspired me to pursue this path a long time ago. l - iii - Abstract The EU has made the area of democracy, human rights, rule of law and good governance a priority cooperation area under the framework of the EU Strategy towards Central Asia. The inclusion of strong normative elements into the Strategy was both due to the EU’s commitment to democratic principles and the lack of democratisation progress in Central Asia. This thesis examines two interrelated questions: To what extent has EU democracy promotion in Central Asia been successful, and why? Focusing on the implementation of EU democracy promotion instruments the thesis has made three original contributions. First, it adds to the existing research on democracy promotion mechanisms and provides a comprehensive analytical framework for evaluation of democracy promotion, inclusive of factors which may facilitate or impede democracy promotion in Central Asia. Second, this thesis demonstrates the validity of a holistic approach to analysing factors impeding democracy promotion. It acknowledges that a variety of diverse factors affect external democracy promotion and their impact can vary as international, regional and domestic conditions change. Third, two original case studies were presented and analysed with taking into consideration relevant contextual conditions, which might affect the design, implementation and outcomes of EU democracy promotion. Case study approach offers a highly contextual solution to examining external democracy promotion. It allows for a depth of analysis and adds to the existing body of literature, which usually either focuses on individual democracy promotion projects or provides a shallow overview of EU activities in Central Asia. The thesis focused on the stable and wealthy authoritarian Kazakhstan and poorer Kyrgyzstan, which is prone to political instability but also to democratic openings. The case studies represented the country with more strategic importance for the EU (Kazakhstan) and the country with less strategic importance for the EU (Kyrgyzstan) in order to see how non normative interests interfere with normative interests l - iv - Table of Contents Acknowledgements ..................................................................................... ii Abstract ..................................................................................................... iiiii Table of Contents ....................................................................................... iv List of Tables ............................................................................................ vvi List of Graphs ............................................................................................ vii Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................ 1 1.1 EU Democracy Promotion in Central Asia: a Challenging Task in an Unfamiliar Region ................................................................. 2 1.2 Research Aims and Objectives ....................................................... 5 1.3 Research Design ............................................................................. 7 1.4 Data Collection .............................................................................. 11 1.5 Research Issues ............................................................................ 13 1.6 Thesis Structure and Final Remarks ............................................. 16 Chapter 2 External Democracy Promotion: Promoters and Targets .... 19 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 19 2.2 Democratisation Studies ............................................................... 21 2.3 European Union Studies ............................................................... 33 2.4 Central Asian Studies .................................................................... 44 2.5 Conclusion..................................................................................... 50 Chapter 3 Local Context ........................................................................... 54 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 54 3.2 General Overview .......................................................................... 55 3.3 Transition and Democracy............................................................. 61 3.4 Regime Stability ............................................................................ 69 3.5 Economic Development ................................................................ 79 3.6 Conclusion..................................................................................... 88 Chapter 4 EU Democracy Promotion in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan ................................................................................................. 91 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 91 4.2 EU Actors and their Interests in Central Asia ................................ 93 4.3 Legal and Normative Framework of EU Democracy Promotion in Central Asia ........................................................................... 107 4.4 Implementation in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan ........................... 115 l - v - 4.5 Conclusion .................................................................................. 125 Chapter 5 Evaluation of EU Democracy Promotion in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan ....................................................................................... 128 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................. 128 5.2 Evaluation of the Strategic Calculation Mechanism..................... 133 5.3 Evaluation of the Normative Suasion Mechanism ....................... 148 5.4 Evaluation of the Democratic Empowerment Mechanism ........... 157 5.5 Evaluation of the Democratisation Progress in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan ......................................................................... 161 5.6 Conclusion .................................................................................. 170 Chapter 6 Factors Impeding EU Democracy Promotion in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan ................................................................... 173 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................. 173 6.2 EU Factors .................................................................................. 174 6.3 Local Factors ............................................................................... 186 6.4 Regional Factors ......................................................................... 195 6.5 Conclusion .................................................................................. 211 Chapter 7 Conclusion ............................................................................. 213 7.1 Introduction ................................................................................. 213 7.2 To what Extent has EU Democracy Promotion been Successful in Central Asia? ....................................................... 214 7.3 Why has EU Democracy Promotion not been Successful in Central Asia? ............................................................................. 220 7.4 Avenues for Future Research ..................................................... 223 7.5 Academic Contribution ...............................................................
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