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Mott Macdonald Report Template Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2015 Final Report February 2016 European Commission Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2015 328131 ITD ITA 1 F Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2013 March 2015 Final Report Annual Analyses of the EU Air Transport Market 2013 Final Report February 2016 European Commission European Commission Disclaimer and copyright: This report has been carried out for the Directorate General for Mobility and Transport in the European Commission and expresses the opinion of the organisation undertaking the contract MOVE/E1/SER/2013- 365/SI2.669187. These views have not been adopted or in any way approved by the European Commission and should not be relied upon as a statement of the European Commission's or the Mobility and Energy DG's views. The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the information given in the report, nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof. Copyright in this report is held by the European Communities. Persons wishing to use the contents of this report (in whole or in part) for purposes other than their personal use are invited to submit a written request to the following address :European Commission - DG MOVE - Library (DM28, 0/36) - B-1049 Brussels e-mail (http://ec.europa.eu/transport/contact/index_en.htm) Mott MacDonald, Mott MacDonald House, 8-10 Sydenham Road, Croydon CR0 2EE, United Kingdom T +44 (0)20 8774 2000 F +44 (0)20 8681 5706 W www.mottmac.com Issue and revision record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description Standard A 29.02.16 Various K. Tiligadis J. Cole Final Report This document is issued for the party which commissioned it and We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned project document being relied upon by any other party, or being used only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or used for for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission any other purpose. which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties. 3 328131/ITD/ITA/1/F February 2016 Annual Analysis of the EU Air Transport Market 2015 Content Chapter Title Page Executive Summary 7 1. Air Traffic Trends 28 1.1. Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 28 1.2. Air Traffic Drivers __________________________________________________________________ 29 1.3. Passenger Traffic Trends ____________________________________________________________ 42 1.4. Air Cargo Traffic ___________________________________________________________________ 72 1.5. Business Aviation Traffic _____________________________________________________________ 77 2. Airlines 80 2.1. Global Trends _____________________________________________________________________ 80 2.2. Airline Financial Performance _________________________________________________________ 85 2.3. Market Entrances and Exits __________________________________________________________ 88 2.4. Airline Performance by Region ________________________________________________________ 89 3. Airports 102 3.1. Airport Business and Investment Trends _______________________________________________ 102 3.2. Airport Financial Performance ________________________________________________________ 102 3.3. Airport Infrastructure Investments _____________________________________________________ 112 4. Aircraft Manufacturing and MRO 123 4.1. Global Trends ____________________________________________________________________ 123 4.2. Aviation - A Global Industry__________________________________________________________ 127 4.3. Manufacturers ____________________________________________________________________ 128 4.4. Air Transport Industry Performance by Region ___________________________________________ 134 5. Air Traffic Management 140 5.1. Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 140 5.2. Global ATM ______________________________________________________________________ 141 5.3. United States ____________________________________________________________________ 145 5.4. Canada _________________________________________________________________________ 147 5.5. Brazil ___________________________________________________________________________ 148 5.6. North Atlantic ____________________________________________________________________ 149 5.7. Europe _________________________________________________________________________ 151 5.8. Russian Federation ________________________________________________________________ 168 5.9. Middle East ______________________________________________________________________ 169 5.10. Africa ___________________________________________________________________________ 170 5.11. India ___________________________________________________________________________ 170 5.12. China __________________________________________________________________________ 170 5.13. Singapore _______________________________________________________________________ 171 5.14. Japan __________________________________________________________________________ 171 5.15. Australia and New Zealand __________________________________________________________ 171 6. Market and Competition Issues 172 6.1. EU External Aviation Policy__________________________________________________________ 172 6.2. International Developments _________________________________________________________ 176 6.3. EU Competition Issues _____________________________________________________________ 179 5 328131/ITD/ITA/1/F February 2016 Annual Analysis of the EU Air Transport Market 2015 7. Environment and Sustainable Development 194 7.1. Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 194 7.2. Institutions, Initiatives and Programmes ________________________________________________ 194 7.3. Aviation Emissions ________________________________________________________________ 197 7.4. Climate Change (Adaptation and Resilience) ____________________________________________ 200 7.5. Aircraft Noise ____________________________________________________________________ 202 7.6. Society and Health ________________________________________________________________ 203 7.7. Airports _________________________________________________________________________ 203 7.8. Fuels ___________________________________________________________________________ 206 8. Safety and Security 207 8.1. Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 207 8.2. 2014 Safety Review _______________________________________________________________ 208 8.3. Airspace Management and Communications ____________________________________________ 212 8.4. Disruptive Passengers and Air Rage __________________________________________________ 214 8.5. Safety and Security – Asia Pacific Region ______________________________________________ 216 8.6. Runway Overruns _________________________________________________________________ 217 9. Consumer Issues 219 9.1. Introduction ______________________________________________________________________ 219 9.2. Airports’ Punctuality & Delays ________________________________________________________ 220 9.3. Airline Punctuality & Delays _________________________________________________________ 224 9.4. Air Passenger Rights: Recent Developments from within the EU _____________________________ 227 9.5. Recent Developments to Online Bookings Regulation _____________________________________ 231 9.6. The International Response _________________________________________________________ 232 9.7. Consumer Issues Annexes __________________________________________________________ 235 Glossary 240 6 328131/ITD/ITA/1/F February 2016 Annual Analysis of the EU Air Transport Market 2015 Executive Summary Foreword The European Commission has concluded annual reports since 1998 as part of its function as an observatory of the European Air Transport Industry. The reports have highlighted developments on legislative and regulatory measures and covered analysis of capacity, traffic and financial performance of airlines and airports, as well as topics such as air traffic control, environment, consumer issues and aircraft manufacturing. This 2015 report covers latest developments in the air transport industry during 2014 and the first half of 2015. It is structured in 9 chapters covering: Air Traffic Trends Airlines Airports Aircraft Manufacturing and MRO Air Traffic Management Market and Competition Issues Environment and Sustainable Development Aviation Safety and Security Consumer Issues The 2015 report is also accompanied by the Statistical Annex. The Annex provides in table format the key data-sets analysed to support each of the topics. This Executive Summary provides highlights of the main report. The key highlights are: Global aviation demand continued to grow in 2014 for the fifth consecutive year since the financial crisis of 2008/09, reaching another record performance of 3.3 billion passengers in 2014, a +5.5% increase on 2013. Air traffic is projected to grow in the long-term, driven by global GDP growth. Annual Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) are forecast to grow from 5.9 trillion in 2014 to between 14.5 trillion (Airbus projection) and 15.4 trillion (Boeing projection) by 2034, with average growth rates of between 4.6% and 4.9% per annum. The fastest growth rates are anticipated in the developing Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Technology advances over the last five years have changed
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