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Hurricane Dorian Outer Rain Band Observations and 1D Particle Model Simulations: a Case Study

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Hurricane Dorian Outer Rain Band Observations and 1D Particle Model Simulations: a Case Study atmosphere Article Hurricane Dorian Outer Rain Band Observations and 1D Particle Model Simulations: A Case Study Viswanathan Bringi 1,*, Axel Seifert 2 , Wei Wu 3 , Merhala Thurai 1 , Gwo-Jong Huang 1 and Christoph Siewert 2 1 Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA; [email protected] (M.T.); [email protected] (G.-J.H.) 2 Deutscher Wetterdienst, 63067 Offenbach, Germany; [email protected] (A.S.); [email protected] (C.S.) 3 CIMMS, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73072, USA; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 21 July 2020; Accepted: 15 August 2020; Published: 18 August 2020 Abstract: The availability of high quality surface observations of precipitation and volume observations by polarimetric operational radars make it possible to constrain, evaluate, and validate numerical models with a wide variety of microphysical schemes. In this article, a novel particle-based Monte-Carlo microphysical model (called McSnow) is used to simulate the outer rain bands of Hurricane Dorian which traversed the densely instrumented precipitation research facility operated by NASA at Wallops Island, Virginia. The rain bands showed steady stratiform vertical profiles with radar signature of dendritic growth layers near 15 C and peak reflectivity in the bright band − ◦ of 55 dBZ along with polarimetric signatures of wet snow with sizes inferred to exceed 15 mm. A 2D-video disdrometer measured frequent occurrences of large drops >5 mm and combined with an optical array probe the drop size distribution was well-documented in spite of uncertainty for drops <0.5 mm due to high wind gusts and turbulence. The 1D McSnow control run and four numerical experiments were conducted and compared with observations. One of the main findings is that even at the moderate rain rate of 10 mm/h collisional breakup is essential for the shape of the drop size distribution. Keywords: Lagrangian particle microphysics; polarimetric radar; outer rain bands; Hurricane Dorian 1. Introduction High quality observations of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) and accurate radar measurements are necessary for evaluating the parameterizations of microphysical processes in numerical models whether bulk, spectral bin resolved or Lagrangian cloud model (LCM) schemes. Detailed microphysical process formulations are typically tested in 1D version prior to being implemented in a fully 3D model with dynamic core. Here, we choose as a test case (study) the outer rain bands of Catagory-1 (but weakening) Hurricane Dorian. The eye of Dorian (see Figure1) was o ff the coast of Wallops Island, Virginia, USA, on 6 September 2019, producing long periods of stratiform rain (from 0800 to 1700 UTC) with bright band (BB) over the densely instrumented NASA Precipitation Research Facility (PRF). Details of the observations both by the S-band NASA Polarization (NPOL) radar and two disdrometers have been given recently [1] so here the observations will be focused on intercomparison with the 1D Monte-Carlo Particle Model [2] (henceforth McSnow) based on the super-droplet approach of [3], but extended to ice phase and (mixed phase) melting ice and all rain processes. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 879; doi:10.3390/atmos11080879 www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere Atmosphere 2020, 11, 879 2 of 20 Atmosphere 2020, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 21 Figure 1. MosaicMosaic of of reflectivity reflectivity from from the the WSR WSR-88D‐88D radars radars of of Hurricane Hurricane Dorian Dorian at at0900 0900 UTC UTC on on16 16September September 2019. 2019. The The red red diamond diamond marker marker is is the the location location of of the the surface surface instrumented instrumented site site at NASA’s Precipitation ResearchResearch Facility Facility (PRF). (PRF). The The NPOL NPOL radar radar operatedoperated by by NASANASA isis 3838 kmkm north of the NASA Precipitation ResearchResearch FacilityFacility (PRF).(PRF). A number of recent articles have used polarimetric radar data (PRD) from the WSR-88D network 2.1. Surface Disdrometers and NPOL Radar to good advantage in documenting the signatures in the eyewall, inner, and outer rain bands [4–6] and the processesThe NASA that causeS‐band drop polarimetric size distribution radar variability [47] provided in these excellent regions (dropcoverage sorting, overall, warm including rain, and stratiform).frequent (7 Othermin cycle) articles RHI have (range focused height on indicator) PRD from scans the convective over the instrumented eyewall and demonstrated site (the latter the is dominancemarked by ofa red warm diamond rain processes in Figure [7 1).]. In The [8] NPOL the PRD radar was was used located in a statistical about 38 manner km to the from north a number of the ofinstrumented hurricanes and site. showed Thus, the that RHI explicit scans simulations provided vertical using WRF slices with nearly four orthogonal different bulk to microphysicalthe outer rain schemesband circulation were not direction able to produce (counter the‐clockwise). observed variations The NPOL in (Z isH aand research ZDR) spacequality (the polarimetric models generally radar gavethat is much used larger to provide ZDR for ground a given validation ZH relative for to observations).the spaceborne In GPM a subsequent (Global article Precipitation [9], it was Mission) shown thatrainfall in stratiform algorithms rain and from as a both consequence hurricane its rain calibration bands and state in is MCSs, carefully the treatment monitored of using melting a variety snow toof raintechniques needed [47–49]. to be modified The calibration to predict accuracy the smaller from values the oflatter ZDR referencesconsistent withfor Z observations.H is to within A 0.75 similar dB, explicitwhile for simulation ZDR it is to of within Typhoon 0.2 dB. Matmo comparing four different bulk microphysical schemes but focusedThe on main the surface inner rain instruments band convection were the were collocated used by MPS [10]. and They the found 2DVD that sited DSDs inside were a double dominated fence byintercomparison warm rain processes, reference but (or the DFIR), distributions which reduces were characterized the horizontal by smaller wind speed values by of a mass-weighted factor of three meanrelative diameter to the ambient and much wind larger [50]. normalized The composite intercept drop size parameter distribution relative was to based non-typhoon on using maritime the high convectiveresolution MPS rain [for11, 12D ].< Dth and the 2DVD for D ≥ Dth where Dth is a threshold diameter in the overlap rangeUnlike varying explicit from 3D0.75 model to 1 mm simulations, [45]. Due comparison to the high ofgusting observations winds the with data 1D quality model outputsof the MPS are challengingconcentrations at best for D since < 0.5 the mm model could may not not be necessarilyestablished, be so able to be to conservative simulate a particular we decided event to suchuse 0.5 as themm outer as the bands lower of limit a hurricane. for the MPS. The 1D Further, model, D whileth was incorporating selected as 1 detailedmm; thus, microphysical by combining processes, data from is settwo within disdrometers an idealized the truncation framework at that the cansmall in drop principle, end was captures only thepartially essential overcome. radar signatures The composite (via a radarN(D) forwardthat resulted, operator) while in stratiformnot being and able convective to measure rain. the Substantial drizzle mode, prior researchwas considered has documented to be a thesubstantial dendritic improvement growth zone over [13 using,14] near a single15 2DVDC, the alone. rate ofThe aggregation MPS data processing [14,15], the method bright-band based − ◦ signatureson the manufacturer’s [16], and (ZH manual,ZDR) profiles is described in the in rain the below Appendix [17] to A DSD of [43]; measurements see, also, [51]. at the surface using advancedThe low disdrometers. profile third In generation convection, 2DVD 1D models (similar have to been the second largely generation limited to studies low profile of graupel described/hail meltingin [52]) processeswas designed [18,19 and] or dropbuilt freezing for NASA [20], and or used has asbeen a 1D evaluated rainshaft columnin several model studies to understand involving theintercomparisons combined action with of gravitationalother disdrometers sorting, [53,54]. collision-coalescence, [Park et al.; Chang breakup, 2020]. and An evaporation OTT Hydromet [21,22]. PluvioSince weighing 1D models gage was have available inherent for limitations, measuring it rain is not accumulations surprising that which they for are the mostly rain bands used was for fundamental33 mm over the process entire studies, duration and (≈ only0800 a to few 1800 articles UTC). have used disdrometers for comparing 1D models’ predictedThe andNational measured Weather DSDs Services’ or their moments 12 UTC (or sounding moment ratios).from Wallops A 1D spectral Island bin was rainshaft used modelin the wasinitialization used by [ 23and] to is study shown the in DSD Figure evolution 2. Points from to note 1.5 km are to (i) the the surface height where of the a 0 Joss °C isotherm disdrometer was was 4.1 located.km, (ii) surface An interesting temperature aspect and of the relative latter humidity study was (RH) the mannerwere respectively, in which initialization 23.6 °C and of 88%, the DSD(iii) the at 1.5lapse km rate was (from done. surface They used to 3.5 a dual-radar km) was − profiler5.1 °C/km, method and to(iv) retrieve the RH the at gamma0 °C was DSD 98%. parameters As mentioned from in the Introduction, detailed analysis of the radar and disdrometer observations of the Dorian rain Atmosphere 2020, 11, 879 3 of 20 below the melting layer to 1.5 km (retrieval was not possible below 1.5 km due to the dual-profiler “blind” zone). The 1D rainshaft DSD predictions at the surface were in general agreement with Joss disdrometer DSDs for larger sizes but were hampered by disdrometer truncation at the small drop end so that the drizzle mode in the modeled DSD could not be validated by the disdrometer.
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