Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
CHAPTER 9 FUTURE TRAFFIC DEMAND FORECASTS
9.1 Traffic Assignment Cases
9.1.1 General
Using the present OD tables (2007), the future OD tables (2014, 2019 and 2024) and road networks of the various cases (with and without project) as described earlier in Chapter 7 of this report, a series of traffic assignments were conducted. These are the following:
1. A “Do-nothing” case for 2007, 2014, 2019 and 2024.
2. “With Project” case which assumes the implementation of each project out of the proposed 19 projects for 2007, 2014, 2019 and 2024.
3. A “Do-all” case which assumes the implementation of all proposed 19 projects for 2007, 2014, 2019 and 2024.
9.1.2 Projects
The Trans-Sulawesi Road consists of the West, Central and East Corridors. Each corridor was further divided into Projects taking into account the regional characteristics as well as the extension of road length. Figure 9.1.1 shows the projects proposed by the Study Team. Table 9.1.1 summarizes the characteristics of the Projects. These are:
TS-1 West Corridor (South): Jeneponto-Makassar-Parepare-Mamuju-Palu, 6 Projects. TS-2 West Corridor (North): Palu-Kuandang-Manado-Bitung, 3 Projects. TS-3 Central Corridor (South): Jeneponto-Watampone-Wotu-Poso-Toboli, 2 Projects. TS-4 Central Corridor (North): Toboli-Gorontalo-Bitung, 2 Projects. TS-5 East Corridor: Wotu-Kolaka-Kasiputih-Kendari-Kolonodale-Luwuk-Poso, 6 Projects.
Note that other national and provincial roads not indicated in Figure 9.1.1 are included in either of the above projects.
9-1
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Figure 9.1.1 Proposed Corridors and Projects
9-2
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 9.1.1 Characteristics of Proposed Projects Length (km) Traffic Origin-Major Cities- National Prov’l Width Volume Package Category Destination Total (m) (000 Arterial K 1 K 2/3 PCUs/day)
Jeneponto - Makassar - TS MAIN CORRIDOR 229 150 79 0 Parepare TS-1-1 Parepare - Mamuju RELATED ROUTES 429 0 0 429 3.0-16.9 2-70 Mamuju - Palu TOTAL 658 150 79 429
Maros - Bajoe TS MAIN CORRIDOR 283 283 0 0 TS-1-2 Parepare - Palopo RELATED ROUTES 409 0 117 291 3.8-10.2 1-11 Wonomulyo - Kaluku TOTAL 692 283 117 291
Palu - Kwandang TS MAIN CORRIDOR 348 348 0 0 TS-1-3 Kwandang - Manado - Bitung RELATED ROUTES 39 39 0 0 4.4-6.0 4-14 Molibagu - Worotican TOTAL 387 387 0 0 Jeneponto - Watampone - PENINSULA CROSSING 144 144 0 0 Wotu TS-1-4 Wotu - Poso - Toboli RELATED ROUTES 0 0 0 0 6.0-8.0 6-9 Toboli - Gorontalo TOTAL 144 144 0 0
Gorontalo - Bitung PENINSULA CROSSING 223 12 211 0 TS-1-5 Wotu - Kolaka RELATED ROUTES 68 58 0 9 4.3-7.1 2-12 Kolaka - Tinaggea - Kendari TOTAL 290 70 211 9
Kendari - Tondoyondo PENINSULA CROSSING 200 0 100 100 TS-1-6 Tondoyondo - Luwuk - Poso RELATED ROUTES 0 0 0 0 6.0 1 Kolaka - Kendari TOTAL 200 0 100 100 Landawe - Tolala TS MAIN CORRIDOR 895 20 875 0 Jeneponto - Makassar - TS-2-1 Parepare RELATED ROUTES 125 0 0 125 3.4-8.4 1-7 Parepare - Mamuju TOTAL 1,019 20 875 125
Mamuju - Palu TS MAIN CORRIDOR 496 318 178 0 TS-2-2 Maros - Bajoe RELATED ROUTES 903 98 212 594 3.5-10.0 1-38 Parepare - Palopo TOTAL 1,399 416 390 594
Wonomulyo - Kaluku PENINSULA CROSSING 184 0 184 0 TS-2-3 Palu - Kwandang RELATED ROUTES 0 0 0 0 4.5-8.4 2-4 Kwandang - Manado - Bitung TOTAL 184 0 184 0 Molibagu - Worotican TS MAIN CORRIDOR 571 268 256 47 Jeneponto - Watampone - TS-3-1 Wotu RELATED ROUTES 881 6 356 519 3.9-9.7 1-10 Wotu - Poso - Toboli TOTAL 1,452 274 612 566
Toboli - Gorontalo TS MAIN CORRIDOR 381 381 0 0 TS-3-2 Gorontalo - Bitung RELATED ROUTES 688 56 89 543 4.2-5.5 1-5 Wotu - Kolaka TOTAL 1,069 436 89 543
Kolaka - Tinaggea - Kendari TS MAIN CORRIDOR 553 529 24 0 TS-4-1 Kendari - Tondoyondo RELATED ROUTES 420 0 60 360 4.0-7.0 1-7 Tondoyondo - Luwuk - Poso TOTAL 973 529 84 360
Kolaka - Kendari TS MAIN CORRIDOR 464 0 459 5 TS-4-2 Jeneponto - Makassar - RELATED ROUTES 429 7 30 393 3.5-11.0 1-15 Parepare TOTAL 893 7 489 398
Parepare - Mamuju TS MAIN CORRIDOR 384 384 0 0 TS-5-1 Mamuju - Palu RELATED ROUTES 51 0 0 51 3.9-5.6 1-4 Maros - Bajoe TOTAL 435 384 0 51
Parepare - Palopo TS MAIN CORRIDOR 415 0 415 0 TS-5-2 Wonomulyo - Kaluku RELATED ROUTES 645 0 149 496 4.2-17.8 1-3 Palu - Kwandang TOTAL 1,060 0 564 496 Kwandang - Manado - Bitung TS MAIN CORRIDOR 373 0 373 0 Molibagu - Worotican TS-5-3 Jeneponto - Watampone - RELATED ROUTES 0 0 0 0 4.3-6.0 1-3 Wotu TOTAL 373 0 373 0
Wotu - Poso - Toboli TS MAIN CORRIDOR 970 0 503 466 TS-5-4 Toboli - Gorontalo RELATED ROUTES 265 0 50 215 3.5-6.0 1-3 Gorontalo - Bitung TOTAL 1,235 0 554 681
Wotu - Kolaka PENINSULA CROSSING 156 156 0 0 TS-5-5 Kolaka - Tinaggea - Kendari RELATED ROUTES 156 0 14 142 4.5-6.7 1-9 Kendari - Tondoyondo TOTAL 312 156 14 142 PENINSULA CROSSING 150 0 150 0 Tondoyondo - Luwuk - Poso TS-5-6 Kolaka - Kendari RELATED ROUTES 0 0 0 0 6.0 1 TOTAL 150 0 150 0 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 6,361 2,681 3,163 518 TOTAL PENINSULA CROSSING 1,056 311 645 100 RELATED ROUTES 5,508 264 1,077 4,167 TOTAL 12,926 3,256 4,885 4,785 8,141 4,785
9-3
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
9.1.3 Traffic Assignment Cases
Table 9.1.2 summarizes the traffic assignment cases conducted. The total number of cases amounts to 65. Note that these traffic assignments are mainly for the assessment of network performance and, among others, the prioritization of the proposed projects. The actual implementation program is hereinafter discussed based on this exercise.
Table 9.1.2 Traffic Assignment Cases as Tested 2007 2014 2019 2024 “Do-nothing” case * * * * “With Project” case for each of 19 Projects * * * “Do-all” case assuming all 19 Projects * * * *
9.2 Traffic Assignments Results
9.2.1 “Do-nothing” Case
This case has been explained earlier in Section 7.5 of this report (see Figure 7.5.9). This analysis was the basis for determining the planning directions of the arterial road network in Sulawesi. The “Do-nothing” case analysis shows the following:
The distribution of traffic volume is concentrated around the major cities like Makassar, Manado, Palu and Kendari. Particularly around Makassar, traffic congestion which is currently only confined to the city will spread by 2024 to wider areas of South Sulawesi Province such as Parepare, Majene, Palopo and Masamba. However, in other areas traffic congestion will not be serious except for Manado and its vicinity.
The traffic volume on intercity roads of Sulawesi will increase up to 10,000 PCUs/day around Makassar by 2024. For the Makassar-Parepare section it will be large at 20,000-30,000 PCUs/day. Typically on other arterial roads in South Sulawesi Province, it will be 4,000-8,000. In other provinces, the traffic volume will exceed 5,000 PCUs/day by 2024 near provincial capital cities of Manado, Gorontalo, Palu, Mamuju and Kendari. However, it will still be small, below 3,000 PCUs/day on most inter-provincial roads.
With regard to the nautical highway, the traffic volume is currently very small, about 100 PCUs/day for Bajoe-Kolaka and about 30 PCUs/day for Pagimana-Gorontalo. In 2024, this volume will increase to about 450 PCUs/day and 100 PCUs/day respectively assuming the current modal shares (i.e. the same service level as at present).
9-4
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
9.2.2 “With Project” Case for Each of 19 Projects
A total of 57 traffic assignments were carried out in this practice. Each case assumes that one single project is completed while the other 18 projects remain unimplemented. Figure 9.2.1 exemplifies the distribution of assigned traffic for Project TS-1-5 (Parepare-Palopo). The same figures were prepared for other projects, although they look similar to each other, because most projects are improvement of existing roads and they have not much difference in traffic distribution. Because of this they were omitted from this report.
2014 2019 2024
Figure 9.2.1 Result of Traffic Assignment (With Project TS-1-5)
9.2.3 “Do-all” Case with 19 Projects
Figure 9.2.2 presents the result of traffic assignment in the “Do-all” case. As compared to the “Do-nothing” case or the “With Project” case, traffic congestion is not foreseen except for the urban area in Makassar. Traffic distribution, however, does not differ much.
As for the nautical highway, the introduction of high-speed, large-capacities and low-cost RoRo ships are assumed.. Although its future traffic volume is difficult to estimate due to uncertain charge levels, its share in total inter-provincial traffic will presumably double by 2024; i.e. 25% between South Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi and 6% between Central Sulawesi and Gorontalo/North Sulawesi. It is surmised that traffic volume in 2024 will be 900 PCUs/day between Bajoe and Kolaka, and 200 PCUs/day between Gorontalo and Pagimana/Luwuk.
9-5
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
2007 2014
2019 2024
Figure 9.2.2 Result of Traffic Assignment (“Do-all” Case with 19 Projects)
9-6
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
CHAPTER 10 PRELIMINARY ENGINEERING STUDY AND COST ESTIMATES
10.1 Preliminary Engineering Study
In order to estimate rough improvement costs and elaborate the priorities of implementation the preliminary engineering study covers not only the arterial roads but also the collector roads of Sulawesi road network. It was carried out based on the new design standards of the “Government Road Regulation/Peraturaan Pemerrintah Nomor No. 34 Tahun 2006.
10.1.1 Identification of Improvement Measures
The types of improvement works for the proposed road network were identified based on the existing road condition and the need to maintain the required service levels of each road category. The following measures were deemed necessary to improve and increase the efficiency of the road network.
(1) Road network improvement
* New road construction (new bypass and new road) * Betterment (re-construction of road structure and capacity expansion by widening) * Maintenance (Periodic maintenance (overlay) and Routine maintenance)
The works, or projects, for the road network improvement were generally divided into three categories, i.e. “new road construction”, “betterment” and “maintenance”.
“New road construction” contains construction of new bypasses and new roads which are necessary for an efficient road network.
In this study, “betterment” contains four (4) kinds of works: (Betterment I), reconstruction without the widening of road structures which are currently in poor condition; (Betterment II), widening from the existing 3.5 – 5.4 m road to 6.0m; (Betterment III), widening from the existing 6.0m road to 7.0m; and (Betterment IV), widening from the existing 6.0/7.0m road to 2 x 7.0m. Each option (from Betterment I – IV) was assigned to the road links with due consideration of future traffic volumes.
“Maintenance” was further divided into “periodic maintenance” and “routine maintenance.” Overlay work was part of periodic maintenance. The Study Team estimated the corresponding costs of the periodic maintenance (overlay) and routine maintenance for the Sulawesi Road Master Plan from 2008 to 2024.
(2) Upgrade of road classification
* Upgrade of functional classification (arterial and collector) * Upgrade of administrative classification (national and provincial)
10-1
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
As stated in section 8.2.4 of Chapter 8, some road links are recommended for upgrading to higher classifications, since their traffic volumes have been increasing and the administrative/functional role of the cities that the links are connected to have changed.
(3) Staged application of new road standard regulation
As stated in section 8.2.5 of Chapter 8, “Staged application of new road standard regulation” is proposed in the development of the arterial and collector roads taking into account the existing road conditions and existing traffic volumes.
10.1.2 Proposed Design Standard and Typical Cross Section
This master plan study considered current design standards on the planning of road network improvement as stated in section 3.2 of Chapter 3. Since target roads of this study were mainly inter-urban roads the “Tata Cara Perencanaan Geometrik Jalan Antar Kota” and Decree No. 42/KPTS/Db/2007 corresponding to PP No.34/2006 under Act No. 38/2004 issued by the Department of Public Works’ Directorate General of Highways were examined to set the typical cross sections and rough cost estimates.
Figure 10.1.1 shows the typical cross sections which are assumed as improvement measures in this Master Plan.
(unit: m) 6.0 1.53.0 3.0 1.5
Typical Cross Section for 6m road
(unit: m) 7.0 2.03.5 3.5 2.0
Typical Cross Section for 7m road
(unit: m) 7.0 7.0 2.0 3.5 3.5 0.5 2.0 0.5 3.5 3.5 2.0
Typical Cross Section for 2 x 7m
Figure 10.1.1 Typical Cross Sections for this MP Study
10-2
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
10.1.3 Estimated Quantities
Taking the traffic volume for 2024 which were forecasted and distributed in Chapter 9 as well as taking into account the new road standard regulations, road links were given optimum options (Betterment, new road construction or maintenance only) in the master plan. It is noted that “maintenance” works, including periodic maintenance (overlay) and routine maintenance, were necessary for all roads and were included in the cost estimates for the total length of the road network.
Considering the improvement measures mentioned above, the project quantity of this master plan is expressed in road length (km) and is shown in Table 10.1.1 below.
Table 10.1.1 Project Quantity (Road Length) by Improvement Measure and by Province
unit: km BETTERMENT NEW MTNCE PROVINCE/ROAD CATEGORY TOTAL I II III IV TOTAL ROAD ONLY NORTH SULAWESI PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 109 638 368 29 1,144 0 188 1,332 ARTERIAL 0 0 31515329022351 COLLECTOR 1 109 638 53 15 814 0 167 981 PROVINCIAL ROAD 276 50 18 0 344 30 516 890 TOTAL 384 688 386 29 1,488 30 704 2,222 GORONTALO PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 60 73 320 0 453 0 151 604 ARTERIAL 0 0 306 0 306 0 0 306 COLLECTOR 1 60 73 14 0 147 0 151 299 PROVINCIAL ROAD 262 0 002620123385 TOTAL 322 73 320 0 715 0 274 989 CENTRAL SULAWESI PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 419 0 724 0 1,142 0 1,179 2,322 ARTERIAL 0 0 724 0 724 0 20 743 COLLECTOR 1 419 0 0 0 419 0 1,160 1,578 PROVINCIAL ROAD 624 0 0062408031,426 TOTAL 1,043 0 724 0 1,766 0 1,982 3,748 WEST SULAWESI PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 219 100 512 0 831 0 2 833 ARTERIAL 0 0 512 0 512 0 2 514 COLLECTOR 1 219 100 0031900319 PROVINCIAL ROAD 143 100 00243045288 TOTAL 362 200 512 0 1,074 0 47 1,121 SOUTH SULAWESI PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 110 349 767 162 1,389 16 275 1,679 ARTERIAL 0 0 657 134 791 16 72 879 COLLECTOR 1 110 349 110 27 598 0 203 800 PROVINCIAL ROAD 73 319 43 0 436 70 602 1,108 TOTAL 183 669 811 162 1,824 86 877 2,787 SOUTHEAST SULAWESI PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 419 0 464 0 882 150 339 1,372 ARTERIAL 0 0 464 0 464 0 0 464 COLLECTOR 1 419 0 0 0 419 150 339 908 PROVINCIAL ROAD 335 0 003350354689 TOTAL 753 0 464 0 1,217 150 694 2,060 TOTAL 3,046 1,630 3,215 191 8,083 266 4,577 12,926 Betterment I: Re-construction without widening of road structure that is currently in poor condition Betterment II: Widening from existing 3.5 – 5.4 m road to 6.0m Betterment III: Widening from existing 6.0m road to 7.0m Betterment IV: Widening from existing 6.0/7.0m road to 2 x 7.0m New Roads include 6.0m roads, 7.0m roads and 2 x 7.0m roads.
After the implementation of this master plan, all national roads (arterial and collector K1) and provincial roads (collector K2/K3) in Sulawesi Island should have sufficient road widths that can accommodate future traffic volume (until the year of 2024) along with the required service levels.
10-3
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Road length by width in the year of 2024 is summarized in Table 10.1.2.
Table 10.1.2 Road Length by Width in 2024
unit: km CARRIAGEWAY WIDTH IN 2024 PROVINCE/ROAD CATEGORY 4.5m 6.0m 7.0m 2 x 7.0m TOTAL NORTH SULAWESI PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 236 671 396 29 1,332 ARTERIAL 0 0 336 15 351 COLLECTOR 1 236 671 60 15 981 PROVINCIAL ROAD 731 132 26 0 890 TOTAL 967 803 422 29 2,222 GORONTALO PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 138 128 338 0 604 ARTERIAL 0 0 306 0 306 COLLECTOR 1 138 128 33 0 299 PROVINCIAL ROAD 385 0 0 0 385 TOTAL 523 128 338 0 989 CENTRAL SULAWESI PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 1,572 6 743 0 2,322 ARTERIAL 0 0 743 0 743 COLLECTOR 1 1,572 6 0 0 1,578 PROVINCIAL ROAD 1,426 0 0 0 1,426 TOTAL 2,999 6 743 0 3,748 WEST SULAWESI PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 219 100 514 0 833 ARTERIAL 0 0 514 0 514 COLLECTOR 1 219 100 0 0 319 PROVINCIAL ROAD 188 100 0 0 288 TOTAL 407 200 514 0 1,121 SOUTH SULAWESI PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 171 429 902 178 1,679 ARTERIAL 0 0 729 150 879 COLLECTOR 1 171 429 173 27 800 PROVINCIAL ROAD 430 564 43 70 1,108 TOTAL 601 993 945 248 2,787 SOUTHEAST SULAWESI PROVINCE NATIONAL ROAD 582 316 474 0 1,372 ARTERIAL 0 0 464 0 464 COLLECTOR 1 582 316 10 0 908 PROVINCIAL ROAD 689 0 0 0 689 TOTAL 1,271 316 474 0 2,060 TOTAL 6,767 2,446 3,437 277 12,926
10.1.4 Packaging of Proposed Links of the SRMP
The SRMP network structure comprises the main trunk network and other network as follows. - Main trunk network is the Trans Sulawesi Road Network (Trans Sulawesi Road main routes) which functions as the main backbone of the Sulawesi road network, providing for inter-regional travel. - Main trunk network also includes the Peninsula crossing routes which connects each Trans Sulawesi road. - Secondary network provides related routes throughout the length of Sulawesi, it provides for intra-regional travel.
The main trunk network is shown in Figure 10.1.2 and has a summary in Table 10.1.3. The same packaging was also used in the traffic demand forecast of this study as stated in Chapter 9.
13 packages for the Trans Sulawesi Road main routes and 6 packages for peninsula crossing roads are proposed in this master plan.
10-4
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Figure 10.1.2 Main Trunk Network proposed in the MP
Table 10.1.3 List of Packages for the Main Trunk Network TS No. Corridor Name Package Name Category TS-1-1, TS-1-2, TS-1-3 Trans Sulawesi Main Routes TS-1 Trans Sulawesi West Corridor (South Sec.) TS-1-4, TS-1-5, TS-1-6 Peninsula Crossing Routes TS-2-1, TS-2-2 Trans Sulawesi Main Routes TS-2 Trans Sulawesi West Corridor (North Sec.) TS-2-3 Peninsula Crossing Routes TS-3 Trans Sulawesi Central Corridor (South Sec.) TS-3-1, TS-3-2 Trans Sulawesi Main Routes TS-4 Trans Sulawesi Central Corridor (North Sec.) TS-4-1, TS-4-2 Trans Sulawesi Main Routes TS-5-1, TS-5-2, TS-5-3, TS-5-4 Trans Sulawesi Main Routes TS-5 Trans Sulawesi East Corridor TS-5-5, TS-5-6 Peninsula Crossing Routes
In addition to the Main Trunk Network mentioned above, Secondary Network, which supports the Main Trunk Network, was also considered in the formulation of the master plan.
All arterial/collector roads other than the Trans Sulawesi Main Routes and the Peninsula Crossing Routes are relatively associated with the 19 packages and are included, as related roads, into the SRMP.
10-5
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 10.1.4 shows the summary of road length of each package.
Table 10.1.4 Road Length by Package of Sulawesi Road Master Plan TOTAL ROAD LENGTH (KM) NO. PACKAGE CATEGORY NATIONAL ROAD PROVINCIAL ROAD TOTAL Arterial Collector 1 Collector 2 & 3 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 229 150 79 0 1 TS-1-1 RELATED ROUTES 429 0 0 429 TOTAL 658 150 79 429 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 283 283 0 0 2 TS-1-2 RELATED ROUTES 409 0 117 291 TOTAL 692 283 117 291 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 348 348 0 0 3 TS-1-3 RELATED ROUTES 39 39 0 0 TOTAL 387 387 0 0 PENINSULA CROSSING 144 144 0 0 4 TS-1-4 RELATED ROUTES 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 144 144 0 0 PENINSULA CROSSING 223 12 211 0 5 TS-1-5 RELATED ROUTES 68 58 0 9 TOTAL 290 70 211 9 PENINSULA CROSSING 200 0 100 100 6 TS-1-6 RELATED ROUTES 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 200 0 100 100 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 895 20 875 0 7 TS-2-1 RELATED ROUTES 125 0 0 125 TOTAL 1,019 20 875 125 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 496 318 178 0 8 TS-2-2 RELATED ROUTES 903 98 212 594 TOTAL 1,399 416 390 594 PENINSULA CROSSING 184 0 184 0 9 TS-2-3 RELATED ROUTES 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 184 0 184 0 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 571 268 256 47 10 TS-3-1 RELATED ROUTES 881 6 356 519 TOTAL 1,452 274 612 566 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 381 381 0 0 11 TS-3-2 RELATED ROUTES 688 56 89 543 TOTAL 1,069 436 89 543 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 553 529 24 0 12 TS-4-1 RELATED ROUTES 420 0 60 360 TOTAL 973 529 84 360 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 464 0 459 5 13 TS-4-2 RELATED ROUTES 429 7 30 393 TOTAL 893 7 489 398 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 384 384 0 0 14 TS-5-1 RELATED ROUTES 51 0 0 51 TOTAL 435 384 0 51 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 415 0 415 0 15 TS-5-2 RELATED ROUTES 645 0 149 496 TOTAL 1,060 0 564 496 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 373 0 373 0 16 TS-5-3 RELATED ROUTES 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 373 0 373 0 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 970 0 503 466 17 TS-5-4 RELATED ROUTES 265 0 50 215 TOTAL 1,235 0 554 681 PENINSULA CROSSING 156 156 0 0 18 TS-5-5 RELATED ROUTES 156 0 14 142 TOTAL 312 156 14 142 PENINSULA CROSSING 150 0 150 0 19 TS-5-6 RELATED ROUTES 0 0 0 0 TOTAL 150 0 150 0 TS MAIN CORRIDOR 6,361 2,681 3,163 518 TOTAL PENINSULA CROSSING 913 168 645 100 RELATED ROUTES 5,652 408 1,077 4,167 3,256 4,885 4,785 TOTAL 12,926 8,141 4,785
10-6
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
10.2 Cost Estimates
10.2.1 Conditions of the Cost Estimates
The major elements of the improvement measures for the SRMP include the following: - New construction of a 4-lane road (2 x 7.0m carriageway). - New construction of a 2-lane road (6.0m and 7.0m carriageway). - Re-construction of roads that are currently in poor condition (Betterment I). - Widening of the existing 4.5m carriageway road to a 6.0m road (Betterment II). - Widening of the existing 4.5/6.0m carriageway road to a 7.0m road (Betterment III). - Widening of the existing 6.0/7.0m carriageway roads to a 4-lane road (Betterment IV). - Overlay (Periodic Maintenance) of the 4.5m, 6.0m and 7.0m carriageway roads. - Routine Maintenance of the 4.5m, 6.0m and 7.0m carriageway roads. - Reconstruction of the existing bridges.
Construction costs were estimated based on the results of the preliminary engineering study and their quantities. Conditions for the estimate were as follows:
- The SRMP projects are assumed to be executed by the contractor which has been selected through the competitive bidding. Accordingly unit prices used in this estimate were set through the examination of similar road improvement projects. However, cost data collected from each province and on-going projects were also referred.
- Unit costs include direct labor cost, equipment cost, material cost, and the indirect cost of overhead, tax (VAT) and the profit of the contractors.
- Unit costs do not include tax.
- Costs for land acquisition and compensation are not included in this estimate due to lack of information on roadside conditions
- Currency exchange rates used in this estimate were as follows:
Table 10.2.1 Currency Exchange Rates used in the Cost Estimates for the MP (1) Indonesia Rupiah vs. US Dollar
Selling rate of Bank Indonesia on May, 16 2007 USD IDR 1 9,322.00
(2) Indonesia Rupiah vs. Japanese Yen
Selling rate of Bank Indonesia on May, 16 2007 JPY IDR 100 7,755.41 1 77.55 0.013 1.00
10-7
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
10.2.2 Unit Cost for Road Improvement
The unit costs for the cost estimate were set up through the following manner.
(1) Setting of Standard Unit Cost per km for the Road Improvement
Through the examination of unit cost per km of similar past as well as on-going projects in Sulawesi Island, the unit cost for road improvement (with widening existing 4.5m road to 6.0m) was set at Rp. 1,560 Mil./km, while the unit cost for new road construction (6.0m) was set at Rp. 3,400 Mil./km. These were adopted as standard unit costs.
(2) Adjustment by Scope and Road Width
Through the adjustment of the standard unit costs (widening from 4.5m to 6.0m and new 6.0m road construction), each unit cost for various scope and road widths which were necessary for future traffic demands were set as follows:
Table 10.2.2 Adjustment of Unit Costs for Road Improvement Unit Cost Category Scope of Work Ratio (Mil. Rp./km) BETTERMENT Reconstruction of 4.5m road w/o widening 1,500 96% Betterment I Reconstruction of 6.0m road w/o widening 1,800 115% Reconstruction of 7.0m road w/o widening 2,000 128%
Betterment II Widening from 4.5m to 6.0m 1,560 100%
Widening from 4.5m to 7.0m 1,920 123% Betterment III Widening from 6.0m to 7.0m 1,630 104% Widening from 6.0m to 2 x 7.0m 4,000 256% Betterment IV Widening from 7.0m to 2 x 7.0m 3,000 192% NEW ROAD CONSTRUCTION
New Road 1 New Construction of 6.0m road 3,400 100%
New Road 2 New Construction of 7.0m road 4,000 118% New Road 3 New Construction of 2 x 7.0m road 8,000 235%
(3) Reconstruction of Bridges
1) Current Bridge Conditions and Rough Estimates for the Reconstruction of Bridges in Poor Condition in Sulawesi Island
The results of the examination of present bridge conditions in Sulawesi Island showed that 12.3% of the bridges (9.8% on the national road and 15.8% on the provincial road) need reconstruction, while 25.4% of the bridges (24.5% on the national road and 26.6% on the provincial road) are narrow bridges with width of less than 4.5m.
10-8
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 10.2.3, Table 10.2.4 and Table 10.2.5 show the present bridge conditions for national roads and provincial roads respectively.
Table 10.2.3 Number of Bridges by Condition on National Roads Province No Damage/Good Fair/Poor Bad/Very Bad Wooden/Unknown Total North Sulawesi 399 (67.5%) 109 (18.4%) 41 (6.9%) 42 (7.1%) 591 (100%) Gorontalo 271 (95.4%) 10 (3.5%) 3 (1.1%) 0 (0%) 284 (100%) Central Sulawesi 496 (53.6%) 381 (41.2%) 40 (4.3%) 8 (0.9%) 925 (100%) West Sulawesi 178 (64.3%) 43 (15.5%) 20 (7.2%) 36 (13.0%) 277 (100%) South Sulawesi 489 (70.5%) 194 (28.0%) 11 (1.6%) 0 (0%) 694 (100%) South East Sulawesi 308 (53.8%) 140 (24.4%) 75 (13.1%) 50 (8.7%) 573 (100%) 190 (5.7%) 136 (4.1%) Total 2,141 (64.0%) 877 (26.2%) 3,344 (100%) 326 (9.8%), 5,510m
Table 10.2.4 Number of Bridges by Condition on Provincial Roads Province No Damage/Good Fair/Poor Bad/Very Bad Wooden/Unknown Total North Sulawesi 272 (71.2%) 51 (13.4%) 1 (0.3%) 58 (15.2%) 382 (100%) Gorontalo 21 (38.9%) 0 (0%) 33 (61.1%) 0 (0%) 54 (100%) Central Sulawesi 726 (92.8%) 9 (1.2%) 0 (0%) 47 (6.0%) 782 (100%) West Sulawesi 63 (71.6%) 22 (25.0%) 2 (2.3%) 1 (1.1%) 88 (100%) South Sulawesi 476 (69.6%) 127 (18.6%) 56 (8.2%) 25 (3.6%) 684 (100%) South East Sulawesi 242 (45.4%) 117 (22.0%) 69 (12.9%) 105 (19.7%) 533 (100%) 161 (6.4%) 236 (9.4%) Total 1,800 (71.3%) 326 (12.9%) 2,523 (100%) 397 (15.8%), 6,049m
Table 10.2.5 Number of Narrow Bridges with a Width of less than 4.5m National Road Provincial Road Province Narrow Total Narrow Total North Sulawesi 282 (47.7%) 591 (100%) 201 (52.6%) 382 (100%) Gorontalo 75 (26.4%) 284 (100%) 28 (51.9%) 54 (100%) Central Sulawesi 100 (10.8%) 925 (100%) 120 (15.3%) 782 (100%) West Sulawesi 122 (44.0%) 277 (100%) 33 (37.5%) 88 (100%) South Sulawesi 25 (3.6%) 694 (100%) 166 (24.3%) 684 (100%) South East Sulawesi 215 (37.5%) 573 (100%) 124 (23.3%) 533 (100%) Total 819 (24.5%) 3,344 (100%) 672 (26.6%) 2,523 (100%)
In the assumption that the average width is 6m and that bridge reconstruction cost amounts to Rp. 13 Mil./m2, the necessary cost would be Rp. 429 billion for bridges on national roads, and Rp. 472 billion for bridges on provincial roads.
2) Unit Cost for Bridge Reconstruction in the Road Improvement Section
Based on the above discussion on present bridge conditions the bridge reconstruction cost in the road improvement section was included into unit cost as follows:
Since the total number of bridges is 5,867nos. (3,344 + 2,523) and the total length of the existing road network is approximately 12,000km, the average number of bridge per unit length of road is 0.49nos/km. Which means that generally there is 1 bridge for every 2km of road.
10-9
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Since about 25% of bridges are narrow bridges, 1 bridge in every 8km needs to be widened when the road section that contains the bridge is improved. Accordingly when assuming that the length and the width of bridge to be reconstructed is 25-30m (27m) and 6m respectively, and that reconstruction cost is Rp. 13 Mil./m2, the unit cost for bridge reconstruction would be 27m x 6m x Rp. 13 Mil./m2 /8km = Rp. 263 Mil./km.
Based on above assumptions and the adjustment by road widths, the unit costs of bridge reconstruction in the road improvement section were added to the road improvement unit costs. The total unit costs were set as shown in Table 10.2.6.
Table 10.2.6 Unit Costs for Cost Estimates Unit Cost for Unit Cost for Total Category Scope of Work Road Improve’t Br. Reconstruction Unit Cost (Mil. Rp./km) (Mil. Rp./km) (Mil. Rp./km) BETTERMENT Reconstruc’n of 4.5m road w/o widening 1,500 300 1,800 Betterment I Reconstruc’n of 6.0m road w/o widening 1,800 350 2,150 Reconstruc’n of 7.0m road w/o widening 2,000 400 2,400 Betterment II Widening from 4.5m to 6.0m 1,560 300 1,860 Widening from 4.5m to 7.0m 1,920 400 2,320 Betterment III Widening from 6.0m to 7.0m 1,630 350 1,980 Widening from 6.0m to 2 x 7.0m 4,000 800 4,800 Betterment IV Widening from 7.0m to 2 x 7.0m 3,000 700 3,700 NEW ROAD CONSTRUCTION New Road 1 New Construction of 6.0m road 3,400 1,000 4,400 New Road 2 New Construction of 7.0m road 4,000 1,200 5,200 New Road 3 New Construction of 2 x 7.0m road 8,000 2,400 10,400
10.2.3 Unit Cost for Periodic Maintenance (Overlay)
Due to the traffic load which were mainly caused by heavy vehicles, the AC surface will be damaged through time and use even if they are well constructed and there is sufficient maintenance. Accordingly, the appropriate periodic maintenance (overlay) is essential for the efficient use of road assets.
It was assumed that overlay works and periodic maintenance are to be made in a 10-year interval after the new construction and betterment and another 5-year interval after another overlay.
Table 10.2.7 shows unit cost for overlay adopted in this master plan.
10-10
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 10.2.7 Unit Cost of Overlay (Mil. Rp./km) Road Category Unit Cost of Overlay 4.5m road 600 6.0m road 750 7.0m road 850 2 x 7.0m road 1,200
10.2.4 Unit Cost for Routine Maintenance
In the period of intervals between the betterment and overlay or the intervals between the two overlays, routine maintenance works, including inspections, cleaning of road surface and drainage, cutting trees/grass, and sealing/patching works should be done in the appropriate manner.
Table 10.2.8 shows the unit cost for routine maintenance as adopted in this master plan.
Table 10.2.8 Unit Cost of Routine Maintenance (Mil. Rp./km) 4.5m road 6.0m road 7.0m road 2 x 7.0m road Year After After After After After After After After Better’t Overlay Better’t Overlay Better’t Overlay Better’t Overlay 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 6 5 2 6 6 8 9 9 10 18 20 3 8 10 11 13 14 16 28 32 4 11 13 15 17 19 21 38 42 5 14 16 19 22 23 26 46 52 6 17 23 28 56 7 20 27 33 66 8 23 31 38 76 9 26 35 42 84 10 29 39 47 94
10.2.5 Total Project Cost until 2024
Based on the project quantity and unit costs discussed above, total project cost for this master plan was estimated as shown in Table 10.2.9.
10-11
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
84 34,712 3 287,110 ,484,217 10,082,416 until 2024 until 23,771,781 Total Project Cost Project Total 11,903,628 11,868,153 11,427,355 27 10,103,145 7,223,753 1,057,829 35,199,136 2,010,048 2,842,003 ,825 1,078,271 931,777 831,955 Project Cost (Mil. Rp.) Cost Project 8,117,262 Periodic MaintenancePeriodic Routine Maintenance 13,464,087 Table 10.2.9 Total Project Cost until 2024 Cost until 2024 Project Total 10.2.9 Table 5,248,574 5,346,825 831,955 11,427,355 13,644,471 Improvement Measure 7,833,201 5,811,271 5,248,574 2,992,157 5,125,105 5,346 (Betterment/New Road Construction) TOTALArterialK 1K 2/3TOTALArterialK 1K 2/3TOTALArterialK 1K 2/3TOTALArterialK 1K 2/3 1K 2/3TOTALArterialK 1K 2/3TOTALArterialK 1K 2/3TOTALArterialK 1K TOTALArterialK 18,893,045 TOTAL RELATED ROUTES0000000000000000 ROUTES0000000000000000 ROUTES0000000000000000 ROUTESRELATED TOTAL ROUTESRELATED TOTAL 1,373,733 ROUTESRELATED TOTAL 505,060RELATED 2,741,903 0TOTAL 1,146,401 ROUTESRELATED 90,480 1,110,599TOTAL 0 221,769 0 ROUTES0000000000000000 RELATED 90,480 605,540 212,740 1,373,733 1,373,733TOTAL 889,958 212,740 ROUTES 135,674RELATED 292,320 845,397 539,355 889,958TOTAL 156,856 0 292,320 118,339 386,649 229,063 ROUTESRELATED 156,856TOTAL 629,281 413,460 0 0 76,978 ROUTES0000000000000000 0RELATED 191,700 242,632 141,580 0 0TOTAL 372,000 539,355 0 1,031,906 33,150 ROUTESRELATED 254,545 0 0 74,574 17,335 74,574TOTAL 274,491 464,904 0 202,715 33,150 539,355 0 329,269 312,075 17,335 ROUTES 312,075RELATED 64,137 0 115,174 2,109,015TOTAL 142,200 125,637 186,000 329,269 161,525 315,614 0 72,463 0 188,276 57,147 ROUTESRELATED 876,719 899,494 33,680 686,991 0TOTAL 330,738 186,000 89,062 67,125 273,204 191,700 188,276 522,530 125,637 12,803 967,518 ROUTESRELATED 463,127 0 0 1,892,035 150,000TOTAL 0 0 241,500 3,861,790 191,700 23,977 91,200 686,991 0 531,137 103,725 129,101 0 ROUTES 528,660RELATED 564,486 1,490,638 1,324,468 0 1,382,864 1,345,926 23,977TOTAL 6,990 48,487 6,990 332,780 0 259,013 12,308 0 330,738 0 907,499 1,011,900 332,427 ROUTESRELATED 264,586 37,018 373,743 0 1,901,406 48,487 0 1,784,387 997,715 125,637TOTAL 604,781 19,460 71,131 122,256 0 2,038,725 12,308 1,196,250 420,051 75,000 0 404,339 1,227,473 937,234 2,038,725 964,172RELATED 334,026 91,440 0 164,380 122,256 108,000 1,508,523 1,051,546 17,026 20,731 5,496TOTAL 0 0 0 91,200 33,142 75,000 604,781 136,255 311,290 829,277 145,280 0 ROUTES 582,210RELATED 420,660 233,000 32,673 334,026 302,651 47,967 143,625TOTAL 53,190 0 319,408 91,200 0 972,363 420,660 33,142 652,882 52,220 0 0 0 1,152,716 47,300 0 365,280 550,765 689,568 ROUTESRELATED 32,395 211,396 132,930 311,290 880,923 845,955 2,433TOTAL 22,097 2,492 0 0 901,583 0 840,150 370,739 133,860 724,758 159,945 2,433 0 99,312 0 0 540,541RELATED 215,262 0 652,882 449,721 800,205 87,167 0 119,037 145,280 135,938 203,310 0 211,396 133,860TOTAL 648,117 317,264 546,958 2,038,725 2,163,805 219,271 0 2,041 1,341,483 0 26,110 229,435 12,336 0 91,440 66,955 CROSSING 131,760PENINSULA 135,938 378,900 99,312 22,097 922,172 648,117 106,824 36,000 339,113 ROUTESRELATED 86,512 1,341,483 192,512 0 708,462 0 91,440 544,011 0 67,053 3,811,287 1,932,998 522,683 329,280 26,110 17,730 676,866 30,480 0 226,915 329,280 12,336 17,562 433,608 127,650 378,274 0 1,406,167 2,105,970 357,239 440,351 0 0 378,900 242,956 574,220 26,759 47,230 90,852 510,475 39,510 546,958 137,653 1,391,0 392,237 0 0 1,014,036 0 70,207 0 103,102 10,905 378,274 1,165,350 488,688 6,482,318 22,097 2,034,379 326,759 1,588,491 308,591 0 0 166,979 660,000 65,903 1,391,084 3,717,822 517,600 10,905 196,200 215,262 26,759 1,431,282 78,357 0 0 553,438 304,997 304,997 0 0 122,466 20,339 0 16,967 0 883,998 0 181,389 0 1,399,228 512,262 290,304 78,357 0 186,000 1,250,577 0 131,760 0 830 0 287,110 554,400 900,841 0 47,230 282,406 1,585,913 1,500,365 2,725,558 4,678,303 59,011 11,196 193,963 610,950 980,009 0 131,760 173,936 1,113,199 1,247,911 30,480 287,110 830 30,480 660,000 5,514 1,520,293 5,986,408 2,873,298 99,688 0 0 144,765 554,400 330,730 59,011 306,412 130,803 0 1,844,172 0 120,420 144,765 0 259,154 59,559 1,060,500 9,479 75,600 0 165,493 574,279 0 964,147 132,476 0 121,324 1,060,500 523,247 1,048,559 220,176 282,406 0 60,139 734,846 871,030 214,704 304,997 4,678,695 75,000 26,666 2,155,108 112,500 808,951 26,666 765,519 25,532 0 13,166 0 0 40,120 992,939 0 0 0 266,765 147,270 147,270 13,166 176,511 74,155 155,196 76,434 91,338 0 523,247 1,352,807 82,441 68,714 86,034 24,428 0 9,479 1,358,764 73,616 0 808,951 781,430 112,500 74,155 789,135 1,460,405 185,081 154,621 0 49,188 9,479 2,232,426 1,329,005 0 0 0 6,159 725,417 0 26,110 74,953 131,399 13,461,665 2,349 0 3,352,744 68,714 351,308 33,961 2,349 101,558 0 0 895,032 1,007,455 33,315 22,079 905,451 2,385,338 545,686 1,224,971 0 22,079 2 131,399 2,160,18 820,379 0 1,007,455 330,124 0 490,254 0 898,078 0 0 1,005,999 33,315 29,016 81,759 131,399 0 1,379,339 0 301,109 463,927 29,016 0 898,078 301,109 805,815 0 0 805,815 0
TS-1-1 MAIN TS CORRIDORTS-1-2 MAIN TS CORRIDORTS-1-3 1,368,170 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 1,146,401TS-1-4 605,540 221,769 CROSSING PENINSULA TS-1-5 605,540 799,478 CROSSING PENINSULA TS-1-6 0 156,856 799,478 CROSSING PENINSULA 0 306,042 156,856TS-2-1 277,786 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 0 229,063TS-2-2 23,241 0 372,000 0 76,978 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 254,545 242,632TS-2-3 0 273,204 CROSSING PENINSULA 0 242,632 0 296,119TS-3-1 0 1,077,109 0 186,000 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 188,276 296,119 148,854 0 696,779TS-3-2 251,477 0 330,738 186,000 188,276 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 115,174 273,204 380,330 150,000TS-4-1 9,977 0 1,015,316 33,680 0 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 0 0 241,500 551,683TS-4-2 0 0 882,799 330,738 0 89,062 0 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 1,233,268 376,361 0TS-5-1 415,346 882,799 1,255,727 75,000 0 109,947 0 89,062 1,823,066 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 37,018 87,271 1,227,473 270,019 0TS-5-2 109,947 1,490,638 1,196,250 33,142 75,000 51,671 786,960 510,808 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 145,327 0 145,280 28,255 0 332,427TS-5-3 33,142 52,220 227,504 3,705 880,923 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 0 0 0TS-5-4 248,114 0 0 0 880,923 0 47,967 0 319,373 0 121,528 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 786,960 0 0 155,028 323,439 145,280 480,675TS-5-5 35,190 0 937,234 546,958 2,492 26,110 CROSSING PENINSULA 0 100,256 323,439 1,205,544 0 449,721 157,318 0 937,234TS-5-6 0 0 119,037 1,205,544 0 493,200 26,110 580,934 54,772 CROSSING PENINSULA 319,373 30,955 84,471 0 381,632 378,274TOTAL 0 0 308,591 574,220 47,230 0 36,923 MAIN TS CORRIDOR 60,597 546,958 378,274 0 0 0 326,759 308,591 0 0 0 660,000 544,011 0 1,628,001 12,251 0 196,200 1,647,482 326,759 0 0 0 488,484 172,749 10,304,758 0 374,507 0 1,683,443 0 1,067,054 39,510 120,091 0 297,000 287,110 0 47,230 0 6,791,075 166,979 282,406 1,588,491 863,658 1,210,061 580,428 0 7,125 120,091 3,129,411 287,110 0 660,000 0 685,072 5,771 0 115,486 384,271 0 488,484 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 132,476 6,497,670 0 523,247 282,406 0 659,246 2,402,274 121,324 0 132,476 0 112,500 1,909,151 3,502,267 550,815 0 121,324 114,906 0 1,844,172 65,806 0 1,326,330 593,130 136,391 0 0 523,247 1,326,330 1,582,298 64,980 580 68,714 0 112,500 0 1,284,078 909,796 0 0 0 0 0 65,806 592,075 0 0 68,794 49,188 0 0 1,329,005 80,428 68,714 1,276,373 67,597 49,188 0 33,315 1,329,005 18,384,7 0 1,839,652 873,663 7,705 0 0 0 0 898,078 0 0 33,315 924,240 0 0 873,663 0 915,412 490,254 0 898,078 490,254 0 805,815 0 0 0 805,815 0 0
10-12
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
CHAPTER 11 PROJECT EVALUATIONS
11.1 Evaluation Methods
11.1.1 Road Packages to be Evaluated
The Sulawesi Island Road Network Master Plan for the target year 2024 was presented in Chapter 8 of this report while future traffic demand was also forecasted for both the whole network and through individual road packages. Economic evaluations were carried out to provide necessary information for the prioritization of each road package from the aspect of the national economy.
For evaluation purposes the whole master plan road network in Sulawesi Island was divided and grouped into the 19 (nineteen) packages as explained in the previous chapter and shown below:
Table 11.1.1 Road Packages for Evaluation Area SQPackage Length Corridor Location category No.No. (km) Trans-Sulawesi(TS) 1 TS-1-1 658 Jeneponto-Makkasar-Parepare Main Corridor 2 TS-1-2 692 Parepare-Mamuju (West-South Corridor) 3TS-1-3387Mamuju-Palu TS-1 4TS-1-4144Maros-Bajoe Crossing Roads in West- 5 TS-1-5 290 Parepare-Palopo South area 6 TS-1-6 200 Wonomulyo-Kaluku TS Main Corridor 7TS-2-11,019Palu-Kwandang TS-2 (West-North Corridor) 8 TS-2-2 1,399 Kwandang-Manado-Bitung Crossing Road 9 TS-2-3 184 Molibagu-Worotican TS Main Corridor 10 TS-3-1 1,452 Jenoponto-Watampone-Wotu TS-3 (Central-South Corridor) 11 TS-3-2 1,069 Wotu-Poso-Tobori TS Main Corridor 12 TS-4-1 973 Tobori-Gorontalo TS-4 (Central-North Corridor) 13 TS-4-2 893 Gorontalo-Bitung 14 TS-5-1 435 Wotu-Kolaka TS Main Corridor 15 TS-5-2 1,060 Kolaka-Tinaggea-Kendari (East Corridor) 16 TS-5-3 373 Kendari-Tondoyondo TS-5 17 TS-5-4 1,235 Tondoyondo-Luwuku-Poso Crossing Roads 18 TS-5-5 312 Kolaka-Kendari Roads in East-South area 19 TS-5-6 150 Landawe-Tolala Total 12,925 Source: JICA Study Team
11.1.2 Conditions for Comparison
The main purpose of economic evaluation is to provide one criteria for the prioritization of each road package. Comparisons among the packages were made based on the conditions summarized below:
1) Implementation Schedule: Detailed design and construction/improvement: 2010-2013 (4 years). 2) Evaluation period: 30 years after opening. 3) Annual disbursement during the implementation period: Total cost is equally allocated to the
11-1
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
four-year implementation period.
In addition, future traffic demand forecast was carried out assuming that the future road network consisted of the present road network plus individual road packages for the year 2014, 2019 and the target year 2024 (not in combination with other road packages).
11.2 Economic Costs
11.2.1 Construction/ Improvement Costs
Economic costs were estimated with the exclusion of such transfer items as taxes and duties from market prices. They are summarized as follows: Total economic cost of the road master plan for construction and improvement is estimated at Rp.17,003 billion using 2006 prices.
Table 11.2.1 Economic Cost (Construction/ Improvement) (Rp. Million: 2006 Prices) Package Length Economic No (km) Cost . (Rp.Million) TS-1-1 658 2,467,713 TS-1-2 692 999,539 TS-1-3 387 800,963 TS-1-4 144 141,170 TS-1-5 290 372,114 TS-1-6 200 334,800 TS-2-1 1,019 418,414 TS-2-2 1,399 1,898,113 TS-2-3 184 297,664 TS-3-1 1,452 1,702,832 TS-3-2 1,069 1,211,334 TS-4-1 973 1,605,948 TS-4-2 893 946,392 TS-5-1 435 875,127 TS-5-2 1,060 811,425 TS-5-3 373 492,262 TS-5-4 1,235 637,616 TS-5-5 312 396,316 TS-5-6 150 594,000 Total 17,003,741 Source: JICA Study Team
11.2.2 Economic Maintenance Costs
Maintenance costs are classified into annual routine maintenance costs and periodic maintenance costs which are converted into economic costs. Periodic maintenance costs is assumed to be expended for every six-year interval.
11.3 Economic Benefits
11.3.1 Quantified Economic Benefits
11-2
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
The following two types of benefits were quantitatively estimated through the following economic evaluation:
1) Savings in Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC savings), and 2) Savings in passenger Travel Time Costs (TTC Savings).
The above benefits were estimated based on the “With and Without Project Comparison Method”. The situation in the “With Project comparison Method” means the case where each road package is implemented and road network is improved. On the other hand, the “Without Project Comparisn Method” means the case where the road network remains in the same condition with existing road networks or, in other words, a “Do nothing” situation.
The necessary input data for benefit estimation were as follows:
- Future traffic volume on links of future road network for both cases of “With” and “Without” project cases. - Road network conditions (link length, average speed, and road roughness). - Unit VOC (Rp/km/vehicle) and Unit TTC (Rp/hour/vehicle).
11.3.2 Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC)
The vehicle operating costs consist of the following: 1) Vehicle cost. 2) Fuel cost. 3) Tire cost. 4) crew cost. 5) Maintenance cost. and 6) Overhead cost for commercial vehicles. The basic data in the calculation of the VOC was obtained from the “Indonesian Road Management System (IRMS)” which is updated periodically. The IRMS defines the “Road User Costs (RUC)” as follows:
y RUC = VOCs + Passenger Travel Time Cost (TTC)
In the above formula, the VOC units were calculated through the application of the following equations:
y VOCi = BASEi * NDXi y NDXi = k1i + k2i/Vi + k3i*Vi2 + k4i*IRI + k5i*IRI2 Where VOCi : Unit VOC for vehicle type (i) in Rp/km BASEi : Base VOC for vehicle type (i) in Rp/km under the “good condition” with roughness 3 NDXi : VOC index for vehicle type (i) Vi : Vehicle speed for vehicle type (i) in km/hour IRI : Road roughness (m/km) k1---k5 : Coefficients by vehicle type
The latest base VOCs (BASEi) and the coefficients in the above equations are shown in Table 11.3.1 for 11 vehicle types:
11-3
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 11.3.1 VOC Coefficients and Base VOC No. Vehicle Type K1 K2 K3 K4 K5 Base VOC (Rp/km) 1 Sedan 0.66707 22.23983 0.000006808 0.012937 0.00139 1.396.10 2 Utility Passenger 0.57932 20.34176 0.000018379 0.014087 0.00093 1.186.77 3 Utility Freight 0.58382 20.30049 0.000018278 0.013313 0.00079 1,414.64 4 Light Bus 0.32475 21.93222 0.000028582 0.068937 -0.00007 1,724.67 5 Large Bus 0.32985 22.26215 0.000053281 0.012930 0.00069 2,735.78 6 Light Truck 0.42258 20.52269 0.000027740 0.044006 -0.00006 1,592.41 7 Medium Truck -0.17257 28.62223 0.000100534 0.061250 0.00016 2,444.33 8 Heavy Truck 0.11065 21.20004 0.000085612 0.044117 0.00041 3,481.37 9 Truck Trailer 0.29038 13.69068 0.000068153 0.053472 0.00027 5,447.68 10 Tractor Trailer 0.59807 10.02214 0.000021525 0.044723 0.00009 7,180.32 11 Motor cycle 1.05130 13.71763 -0.000009124 0.009024 0.00052 201.90 Source: IRMS: Updating the VOC Equation Coefficients, 2006
The above base data and coefficients were applied to this Study after checking and comparing the calculated unit VOC values with those of other recent studies. Figure 11.3.1 indicates the estimated VOC curves explained by travel speed in a road roughness 3 case.
IRMS VOC
8000.0
7000.0
6000.0
5000.0
4000.0
VOC (Rp/km) VOC 3000.0
2000.0
1000.0
0.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Speed (km/hour)
Sedan M.Bus L.Bus Pickup Truck
Source: JICA Study Team (drawn from the data of IRMS)
Figure 11.3.1 VOC Curves by Vehicle Type (IRI=3)
11.3.3 Passenger Travel Time Cost (TTC)
The savings in travel time cost are another important component of road users’ benefit. IRMS estimated the unit value of travel time (Rp/hour/vehicle) at the 2006 price levels based on the traditional “income approach method,” as shown in Table 11.3.2. Factors which were taken into account for the calculation of unit TTC per vehicle for IRMS were the following:
1) Monthly income of passengers by vehicle group. 2) Shadow Wage Rate (=0.85). 3) Monthly working hours (=191 hours).
11-4
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
4) Non-work time value (=28% of work time value). 5) Trip purpose percentage of work trips and non-work trips by vehicle group. 6) Average occupancy (number of passengers per vehicle).
Table 11.3.2 Passenger Travel Time Costs (Rp/hour/vehicle: 2006) Passenger Monthly Income Vehicle Sedan Utility Utility Light Large Motor- Type Passenger Freight Bus Bus Truck Cycle Income/month (Rp) 2,640,000 836,000 748,000 836,000 836,000 748,000 1,056,000 Income at SWR 2,244,000 710,600 635,800 710,600 710,600 635,800 897,600 Working hours/month191 191 191 191 191 191 191 Passenger TTC per Hour Work time value (Rp) 11,749 3,720 3,329 3,720 3,720 3,329 4,699 Non-work time value 3,290 1,042 932 1,042 1,042 932 1,316 % Work trips 50% 30% 75% 30% 30% 75% 50% % Non-work trips 50% 70% 25% 70% 70% 25% 50% Occupancy (persons) 2.0 8.0 1.0 16.0 32.0 1.0 1.2 TTC/passenger/hr 7,519 1,845 2,730 1,845 1,845 2,730 3,008 TTC/vehicle/hr (Rp) 15,038 14,763 2,730 29,525 59,050 2,730 3,609 Source: IRMS: Updating the VOC Equation Coefficients, 2006
In order to confirm the applicability of the above estimated time values to this Study, a comparison with a past study (Heavy Loaded Road Improvement Project (HLIP) – Master Plan Review Study, December 2001) was made as shown in Table 11.3.3.
Table 11.3.3 Comparison of Time Values Time Value/hour/person) Time Value/hour/vehicle Category HLIP 2001 IRMS Vehicle Type HLIP 2001 IRMS (Sulawesi)* 2006** (Sulawesi)* 2006** Car user, working 9,735 11,749 Car 11,560 15,038 Bus user, working 3,809 3,720 Passenger Utility 12,850 14,763 Car user, non-working 2,920 3,290 Medium Bus 26,226 29,525 Bus user, non-working 1,143 1,042 Large Bus 53,996 59,050 Source: *: Heavy Loaded Road Improvement Project-II, Master Plan Review Study for National Network Roads, Final Report, Volume 2, December 2001. **: IRMS: Updating the VOC Equation Coefficients, 2006.
It was judged that the time values in the IRMS 2006 as shown in Table 11.3.3 are in the acceptable ranges and thus they were applied to this Study.
The road users’ costs (VOC and TTC) were calculated applying the above unit values (Rp/km/vehicle and Rp/hour/vehicle) to the results of traffic assignment simulations for both the “With Project” and “Without Project” cases. The economic benefit is defined as the difference of the total road users’ cost between the “Without Project” and the “With Project” cases.
11-5
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
11.4 Economic Evaluation
11.4.1 Premises for Evaluation
In order to carry out the economic evaluation, the following preconditions were set.
- Price Level : Constant 2006 prices - Evaluation Period : 30 years after opening to traffic - Residual Value : No residual values were counted - Opportunity Cost of Capital : 15%
11.4.2 Cost Benefit Streams and Evaluation Indicators
The following three kinds of evaluation indicators were calculated based on the conventional Discount Cash Flow method (DCF):
1) Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) 2) Net Present Value (NPV) 3) Benefit/ Cost Ratio (B/C)
11.4.3 Results of Economic Evaluations
The cost and benefit streams are shown in Table 11.4.3 to Table 11.4.21. The results of the economic evaluation for the 19 road packages are summarized in Table 11.4.1:
Table 11.4.1 Results of Economic Evaluations Package No. EIRR (%) NPV (*) B/C (*) (Rp. Million) TS-1-1 49.2% 6,558,766 5.74 TS-1-2 35.0% 1,888,702 4.02 TS-1-3 19.6% 182,727 1.41 TS-1-4 32.6% 214,970 2.76 TS-1-5 24.7% 208,969 1.80 TS-1-6 80.8% 2,364,937 13.42 TS-2-1 15.0% -1,869 1.00 TS-2-2 18.6% 367,198 1.29 TS-2-3 16.6% 21,360 1.12 TS-3-1 21.2% 727,360 1.60 TS-3-2 18.6% 341,769 1.39 TS-4-1 13.1% -140,158 0.85 TS-4-2 13.5% -65,376 0.91 TS-5-1 12.0% -108,797 0.78 TS-5-2 2.8% -495,547 0.31 TS-5-3 10.2% -91,422 0.70 TS-5-4 6.3% -411,539 0.45 TS-5-5 14.0% -22,998 0.91 TS-5-6 7.5% -224,952 0.26 Source: JICA Study Team (*): Discount Rate = 15%
The above results show that the Packages located in the West-South Corridor (TS-1 group), West-North section (TS-2 group) and Central south section (TS-3 group) will have high economic returns.
11-6
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
The results of the economic evaluations will be applied to the comprehensive overall evaluations together with other evaluation criteria in deciding the prioritized order of each package in the master plan network.
It should be noted that Packages that have low EIRRs in the above Table 11.4.1, such as TS-2-1, TS-4-1 to TS-5-6, will be improved if they are implemented in accordance with the Overall Implementation Schedule of the Master Plan as explained in Chapter 13. The revised results of the economic evaluation are summarized below:
Table 11.4.2 Revised Evaluations Package No. EIRR (%) NPV (*) B/C (*) (Rp. Million) TS-2-1 26.7% 278,504 1.95 TS-4-1 14.6% -25,301 0.97 TS-4-2 16.2% 43,168 1.08 TS-5-1 15.6% 12,769 1.05 TS-5-2 9.1% -78,347 0.66 TS-5-3 16.7% 10,481 1.13 TS-5-4 19.5% 33,246 1.20 TS-5-5 20.8% 65,968 1.49 TS-5-6 10.2% -24,353 0.56 Source: JICA Study Team (*): Discount Rate = 15%
11-7
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
11.5 Supplemental Economic Analysis on Ferry Operations in Sulawesi Island
11.5.1 Comparisons of Economic Efficiency between Road and Ferry Transport
(1) Contents of Analysis
The Road Network Master Plan for Sulawesi Island formulates a future road network with a good combination of road and ferry links based on an environment friendly transportation system.
Due to Sulawesi’s complex geographical shape (it has 4 peninsulas and 3 bays) road traffic movements from one peninsula to another take longer detour routes. Ferry services that will connect the various peninsulas will provide an important service in reducing the unnecessarily long trip lengths, including those by roads. As a result this will lessen vehicle operating costs and mitigate unnecessary environmental loads. In this analysis, a quantitative base of economic efficiency of the ferry transport will be presented comparing cost performances between road and ferry operations from the aspect of the national economy.
(2) Selected Ferry Routes for the Analysis
The following 6 (six) ferry routes were selected as candidates for the analysis:
1) Route between Bajoe and Kolaka (crossing the Bone Bay). 2) Route between Siwa and Lasusua (crossing the Bone Bay). 3) Route between Siwa and Kolaka (crossing the Bone Bay). 4) Route between Biwa and Pamafara (crossing the Bone Bay). 5) Route between Gorontalo and Pagimana (crossing the Tomini Bay). 6) Route between Gorontalo and Luwuk (crossing the Tomini Bay).
Among the selected candidate routes, the data/information of the Bajoe – Kolaka route was provided by the ferry operation agency ASDP Indonesia Ferry, through the Dinas Perhubungan of the South Sulawesi Province. Data on the route between Gorontalo and Pagimana was partly obtained from the Dinas Perhubungan of the Gorontalo Province, except for ferry operation costs. Information on the Siwa – Lasusua route was presented by the P.T. ASDP Indonesia Ferry.
11.5.2 Bajoe – Kolaka Ferry Route (Crossing the Bone Bay)
(1) Characteristics of Ferry Operation (Bajoe – Kolaka Route)
1) Ferry Operation Agencies and Ferry Ships
Currently, in the Bajoe – Kolaka route there is a total of nine ships which are operated by six agencies. These agencies are: PT ASDP, PT JL Ferry, PT JM Ferry, PT BLT Tama, PT JL Rahayu, and PT JM Madura. Specifications of the ferry operations are shown in Table 11.5.1.
Superannuated ferry ships that are still in service since they were acquired 40 years ago are operated on this route. The capacity of each ferry ship is not so large accommodating 11 to 25 truck units. The average capacity of the nine ships is about 16 trucks/ship.
11-8
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 11.5.1 Specifications of Ferry Ships Acquired Size of Ferry Ship Ferry Length Width Capacity Capacity No. Year (m) (m) (in truck unit) (in ton) 1 1992 44.50 14.00 15 360 2 1970 44.50 11.30 11 198 3 1968 71.57 12.42 16 288 4 1982 56.65 13.10 18 360 5 1968 62.06 13.46 18 360 6 1999 55.68 11.00 16 320 7 1980 55.72 16.20 25 500 8 1980 42.70 11.50 11 220 9 1983 57.35 13.20 18 360 Source: Dinas Perhubungan South Sulawesi Province, PT.ASDP Indonesia Ferry
2) Operation Frequency and Travel Time for Crossing
Present ferry operation frequencies between Bajoe and Kolaka are three round trips (total 2 x 3 = 6 trips). Not all ferry ships operate every day. Average crossing hours are about eight to nine hours per trip (one-way).
Table 11.5.2 Operation Frequencies and Crossing Hours - Normal operation hour From 17:00, 20:00 to 23:00 - Number of trips per day From Bajoe: 3 trips From Kolaka: 3 trips = 3 round trips = (2 x 3 = 6 trips) - Average Crossing hours 8-9 hours for one-way Source: Dinas Perhubungan South Sulawesi Province, PT.ASDP Indonesia Ferry
3) Ferry Tariff (Fares)
The current tariff structures for passengers using the ferries in the Bajoe – Kolaka Route is shown below:
Table 11.5.3 Tariff Structures (as of November 2007) (in Rp./unit) Passenger Adult Children Business 68.000 44,000 Economy 46,000 33,000 Vehicle Bicycle 65,000 Motorcycle 124,000-318,000 Car 876,000 Minibus 1,766,000 Bus 2,713,000 Small Truck 1,295,000 Truck 1,925,000 Heavy Truck 2,824,000 Source: Dinas Perhubungan South Sulawesi Province, PT.ASDP Indonesia Ferry
It can be seen that the route comparatively apply high tariffs at present. These tariffs are
11-9
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
equivalent to the Vehicle Operating Costs for 450 km (car), 730 km (minibus), 900 km (bus), 460 km (small truck), and 730 km (heavy truck).
(2) Past Trends of Ferry Transport Demands (Bajoe – Kolaka Route)
The Tables and Figures below show the past ferry user traffic trends of the Bajoe – Kolaka Route. The figures show a clear decreasing tendency in the traffic of vehicles and passengers (Table 11.5.5, Figure 11.5.1, Figure 11.5.3). The average daily traffic of vehicles in 2006 was only 88 vehicles (excluding motorcycles) and 312 passengers (based on the assumption of a 365 day operations). Presumably, one of the reasons for the modest traffic volume is the low capacity and low frequencies involved in the route: [(6 trips per day) x (average capacity 16 trucks per ship) = 96 trucks per day].
Table 11.5.4 Ferry User Traffic (Bajoe – Kolaka Route)
Car Small Large Small Heavy Sub-Total Motorcycle Passengers Year Bus Bus Truck Truck 2004 7,087 12,373 7,576 2,925 7,594 37,555 15,151 302,618 2005 7,191 8,627 1,698 5,414 12,497 35,427 15,794 142,586 2006 5,886 8,358 1,052 5,220 11,510 32,026 16,671 115,621 Traffic/day 2006 16 23 3 14 32 88 46 312 Source: Dinas Perhubungan South Sulawesi Province, PT.ASDP Indonesia Ferry
Table 11.5.5 Past Trends of Ferry User Traffic (1997 – 2006)
Year Car, Bus, Truck Motorcycle Passenger Cargo (Unit) (Unit) (Persons) (ton) 1997 38,775 12,785 414,206 11,264 1998 43,583 5,288 453,038 85,505 1999 43,514 6,838 447,914 - 2000 45,684 4,949 364,300 93,770 2001 39,466 7,612 304,084 67,212 2002 42,972 20,276 339,324 80,484 2003 21,413 10,059 182,562 37,516 2004 36,499 18,722 305,261 37,033 2005 35,727 16,926 150,040 - 2006 31,011 14,643 106,401 - Growth % Per Annum -2.5% 1.5% -14.0% 18.5% Source: Web site of ASDP Indonesia Ferry
11-10
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Car,Bus,Truck (Bajoe-Kolaka Route)
50,000 45,000 40,000
s 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000
No. ofNo. Vehicle 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year
Source: from Table 11.5.5
Figure 11.5.1 Past Trends of Vehicle Traffic (excluding motorcycles) (Bajoe – Kolaka Route)
Motorcycle (Bajoe - Kolaka)
25,000
20,000
s 15,000
10,000 Motorcycle
5,000
0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year
Source: from Table 11.5.5
Figure 11.5.2 Past Trends of Motorcycle Traffic
(Bajoe – Kolaka Route)
11-11
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Passengers (Bajoe - Kolaka)
500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000
s 300,000 250,000
Passenger 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year
Source: from Table 11.5.5
Figure 11.5.3 Past Trends of Passenger Traffic
(Bajoe – Kolaka Route)
(3) Comparison of the Economic Efficiency between the Road and Ferry Modes (Bajoe – Kolaka Route)
1) Economic Costs to be compared
Generally, ferry transport is more efficient than road transportation from the point of view of transport costs and environment preservation. However, one question is how much ferry transport saves on transport costs. It should be noted that transport costs in this context are not the fares of ferry users or the tariffs levied on road toll gates. Economic costs in this regard are Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) via roads and ferry operation costs when they ply across the bays.
2) Vehicle Operating Costs via Road (between Bajoe and Kolaka Routes)
The results of the Origin – Destination (OD) interview survey on the ferries plying the Bajoe and Kolaka routes showed that the main traffic OD pairs are the Bajoe – Kolaka route and the Makassr – Kendari route. Therefore, cost comparisons between traffic via roads and via ferry for these OD pairs is equivalent to the comparison of costs between the Bajoe and Kolaka route as access to/from Bajoe and Kolaka are used by both road users and ferry users (Figure 11.5.4).
For analytical purposes, a hypothetical situation of “Without Ferry Operations” between Bajoe and Kolaka is assumed. In this situation, vehicles and passengers currently using ferry services
11-12
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
will be obliged to take longer road routes which is about 730 km. between Bajoe and Kolaka.
730 km via Roads (Bajoe - Kolaka)
(Bone Bay)
Kolaka Kendari
Bajoe (Ferry Route) Makassar
Source: JICA Study Team
Figure 11.5.4 Location of Ferry Routes (Bajoe-Kolaka) and Roads
Vehicle Operating Costs of this detour road route are calculated below:
Table 11.5.6 Estimation of VOC for Hypothetical Situation of “Without Ferry Case” (Bajoe – Kolaka Route) Distance via roads Unit VOC Total VOC Vehicles/ Passengers Traffic in 2006 (Bajoe – Kolaka) By IRMS 2006 (Rp.Million / (*1) (Rp/km) (*2) year) Car 5.886 1,944 8,348 Small Bus 8,358 2,411 14,700 Big Bus 1,052 729.5 km 2,998 2,301 Small Truck 5,220 2,788 10,615 Large Truck 11,510 3,852 32,346 Passengers (*3) 17,283 729.5 km 2,411 30,396 Motorcycle (*4) 3,439 729.5 km 2,411 6,048 Total VOC 104,754 Note: (*1): From Table 11.5.4 (PT. ASDP data) (*2): Indonesian Road Management System 2006, assuming 40km/hour, road roughness = fair. (*3): Passengers using ferries are assumed to divert to small buses (average occupancy = 6.69 persons) (*4): Passengers of motorcycles are assumed to divert to small buses.
Therefore, in a hypothetical “Without Ferry Services” scenario in the Bajoe – Kolaka Route an additional total VOC will amount to Rp.104,754 Million per year in 2006 prices. In other words, current ferry operations in the Bajoe – Kolaka route will contribute to a VOC savings that is equivalent to the above amount in a year.
11-13
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
3) Economic Costs of Ferry Operations (Bajoe – Kolaka Route)
According to data from PT ASDP Bajoe, annual operation costs in the Bajoe – Kolaka route were Rp.9, 648 Million in 2005 and Rp.9, 513 Million in 2006, as shown below:
Table 11.5.7 Ferry Operation Costs (Bajoe – Kolaka Route) 2006 Items 2005 2006 (Economic (Rp. Million) (Rp. Million) Cost) (Rp. Million) 1) Direct Ferry Operation Costs - Ferry Crew Wages 575 680 680 - Fuel Cost 3,025 5,212 4,691 - Lubricant Oil Cost 268 292 263 - Ferry Boat Maintenance Cost 5,042 2,478 2,231 2) Ferry Terminal Operation Costs - Terminal Worker Wages 323 406 406 - Jetty Maintenance Cost 124 183 164 3) General Administration Costs 291 262 262 Total 9,648 9,513 8,697 Source: Dinas Perhubungan South Sulawesi Province, PT.ASDP Indonesia Ferry
The ferry operating costs above (2006) were converted into economic costs applying the conversion rate of 0.90 to the fuel, lubricant oil and maintenance costs which resulted in Rp.8,697 Million in 2006.
4) Cost Comparison between Ferry and Road – (Economic Benefit of Ferry)
Economic costs in a hypothetical “Without Ferry Operation” situation was estimated at Rp. 104,754 Million in 2006 (VOC total via road). On the other hand, economic ferry operation cost in a “With Ferry Operation (present actual situation)” model was estimated at Rp. 8,697 Million in 2006. The difference between two economic costs (Rp. 96,057 Million per year = Rp. 104,754 Million – Rp. 8,697 Million) will mean a kind of economic benefit of the current ferry operation at Bajoe – Kolaka route based on the “With and Without Comparison Methods”. In other words current ferry operations will contribute to the national economy amounting to Rp. 96,057 million per year. The benefit of the current ferry operation is equivalent to 8.6% (Rp. 96,057 million x 17 years = Rp. 1,633 billion) of the total cost of the Master Plan Road Network in Sulawesi Island during the planning period (Rp. 18,894 billion, 2008 -2024: 17 years) assuming the same ferry traffic volumes in 2006 are maintained until 2024. It can also be said that the Economic Benefit/Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio) of the ferry operation is equal to 12.0 (=Rp.104,754 Million / Rp. 8,697 Million) in 2006.
11-14
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
11.5.3 Siwa – Lasusua Ferry Route (Crossing the Bone Bay)
(1) Characteristics of Siwa – Lasusua Route
1) Ferry Operation Agency and Ferry Ship (Siwa – Lasusua route)
The location of the Siwa – Lasusua ferry route is about 100 km north of the Bajoe – Kolaka route in the Bone Bay. The Origin – Destination information of traffic was not readily available.
Only one ferry ship is operated by the PT. ASDP Indonesia (Public) at the Siwa – Lasusua Route one other passenger ship is operated by a private sector.
The characteristic of the ferry in operation is shown below:
Table 11.5.8 Specification of Ferries Acquired Size of Ferry Ship Name of Ferry Year Length (m) Width (m) Capacity (in Capacity truck unit) (in ton) KMP. Poncan Moale 2005 44 11 - 621 Source: PT. ASDP (Persero), Cabang SIWA
2) Operating Frequency and Travel Time for Crossing the Siwa – Lasusua Route
It is reported that the operating frequency of one ship is only one trip per day and the average crossing time is four hours per one-way.
3) Ferry Tariff (Fares) (Siwa – Lasusua route)
The current tariff structure of this ferry route is presented below: Tariff level is about 20% - 50% of the Bajoe – Kolaka Route.
Table 11.5.9 Tariff Structures (as of December 2007) (in Rp./unit) Passenger Adult Children 24,000 15,000 Vehicle Bicycle 31,000 Motorcycle 43,000-112,000 Car 306,000 Minibus 405,000 Bus 546,000 Small Truck 304,200 Truck 539,000 Heavy Truck 949,000 Source: PT. ASDP (Persero), Cabang SIWA
11-15
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
4) Traffic (Siwa – Lasusua Route)
The number of vehicles and passengers transported by the Siwa – Lasusua ferry in 2006 and 2007 are shown in the following table.
Table 11.5.10 Ferry User Traffic (Siwa – Lasusua Route) Car, Small Large Small Heavy Sub- Motor- Passengers Year Pickup Bus Bus Truck Truck Truck Total cycle 2006 1,010 174 1 1,579 1,824 143 4,731 2,831 28,790 2007 (*) 1,251 79 1 1,480 1,909 152 4,872 2,769 27,587 Traffic/day 2006 13 8 79 Source: PT. ASDP (Persero), Cabang SIWA Note: (*): Data of 2007 covers from January to October 2007
This route transported 4,731 vehicles and 2,831 motorcycles in 2006. The average daily traffic volumes are only 13 vehicles, 8 motorcycles and 79 passengers. Due to only one trip service per day, traffic volumes were very low.
5) Economic Costs of the Ferry Operation of the Siwa – Lasusua Route.
The annual operation costs at the Siwa – Lasusua ferry were estimated at Rp. 3,051 Million in 2006 and Rp. 2,820 Million after conversions as shown below:
Table 11.5.11 Ferry Operation Costs (Siwa – Lasusua Route) 2006 Items 2006 Economic (Rp. Million) Cost) (Rp. Million) 1. Direct Ferry Operation Costs - Ferry Crew Wages 444.8 444.8 - Fuel Cost 1,554.9 1,399.4 - Lubricant Oil Cost 32.5 29.3 - Ferry Boat Maintenance Cost 729.8 656.8 2. Ferry Terminal Operation Costs (*) (*) 188.9 188.9 3. General Administration Costs 100.5 100.5 Total 3,051.4 2,819.7 Source: PT. ASDP (Persero), Cabang SIWA Note: (*): Ferry terminal operation costs were not available from PT. ASDP Siwa. It is managed by the Transport Department of the Province. Therefore, it is estimated applying the same ratio of Bajoe – Kolaka ferry operation costs.
(2) Comparisons of Economic Efficiency between the Road and Ferry Models (Siwa – Lasusua Route)
Based on the same methodology applied to the Bajoe – Kolaka route, an economic efficiency comparison between the road and ferry models was made as explained below:
For the comparative analysis, two cases were prepared considering the detour distance via road.
1) Case 1: Comparison using the longest detour route via road between Siwa and Lasusua Route: (348.5 km) and the ferry (Figure C.1)
11-16
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
2) Case 2: Comparison via road (from Siwa up to Malili): 228.9 km, and via ferry route (Siwa-Ferry-Lasusua-Malili): road section =119.6 km (Figure C.2).
Longest detour route via road (228.9 km)
Bone Bay
Lasusua Siwa Ferry
Kolaka
Bajoe
Source: JICA Study Team
Figure 11.5.5 Longest Detour Route via Road (Case 1)
Via road up to Malili (228.9 km) Malili
Ferry + road route Bone Bay up to Malili (road = +119.6 km) Ferry Siwa Lasusua
Kolaka
Bajoe
Source: JICA Study Team
Figure 11.5.6 Comparison of Two Routes: via Road and via Ferry Route (up to Malili) (Case 2)
11-17
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
For Case 1, calculations for the Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) in a hypothetical situation (“Without Current Ferry Operation”) is shown below:
Table 11.5.12 VOC Estimates in a Hypothetical “Without Ferry” Situation (Siwa – Lasusua Route) Distance via roads Unit VOC Total VOC Vehicles/ Passengers Traffic in 2006 (Siwa – Lasusua) By IRMS 2006 (Rp.Million / (*1) (Rp/km) (*2) year) Car 1,010 1,944 684.3 Small Bus 174 2,411 146.2 Big Bus 1 348.5 km 2,998 1.0 Small Truck 3,403 2,788 3,305.9 Large Truck 143 3,852 192.0 Passengers (*3) 4,303 348.5 km 2,411 3,615.8 Motorcycle (*4) 584 348.5 km 2,411 490.7 Total VOC 8,435.9 Note: (*1): From Table 11.5.10 (PT. ASDP data) (*2): Indonesian Road Management System 2006, assuming 40km/hour, road roughness = fair. (*3): Passengers using ferries are assumed to divert to small buses (average occupancy = 6.69 persons) (*4): Passengers of motorcycles are assumed to divert to small buses.
Therefore, in Case 1, current ferry operations at Siwa – Lasusua route saves on economic costs by Rp. 5,616 Million per year (Rp. 8,436 Million of VOC – Rp. 2,820 Million of ferry economic operation cost). In other words, the Economic Benefit/Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio) of the ferry operation was 3.0 in 2006 (=Rp. 8,436 Million / Rp. 2,820 Million).
On the other hand, Case 2 does not show favorable results for ferry operations because the road distance from Siwa to Malili is sufficiently short to offset lower operational costs of the ferry and due to additional road distance from Lasusua to Malili as indicated below:
- Via road to Malili from Siwa: VOC expense from Siwa to Malili via road (228.9 km) = Rp. 5,541 Million per year.
- Via ferry route to Malili: Ferry operation cost (Rp. 2,820 Million per year) + VOC from Lasusua to Malili (Rp. 2,895 Million) = Rp. 5,715 Million per year.
- Economic cost via road route (Rp. 5,541 Million) < Cost via ferry route (Rp. 5,715 Million)
11.5.4 Gorontalo – Pagimana Ferry Route (Crossing the Tomini Bay)
(1) Characteristics of Ferry Operation (Gorontalo – Pagimana Route)
1) Ferry Ship in Operation and Traffic
At present, only one ship is operated by the PT. ASDP (Persero) on this route. Average crossing time is 10 hours (one-way). Vehicles and passengers transported in 2006 amounted to 5,700 vehicles (this includes cars and motorcycles) and 54,700 passengers.
11-18
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 11.5.13 Specification of Ferries (Gorontalo-Pagimana) Starting Size of Ferry Ship Name of Ferry operation Length (m) Width (m) Capacity (in Capacity year truck unit) (in ton) KMP. Baronang 1993 45.3 12 15 526 Source: Dinas Perhubungan, Gorontalo Province
Table 11.5.14 Ferry User Traffic (Gorontalo-Pgimana) Car, Small Large Small Heavy Sub- Motor- Passengers Year Pickup Bus Bus Truck Truck Truck Total cycle 2006 2,993 - - - - 45 3,038 2,639 54,673 Source: Dinas Perhubungan, Gorontalo Province
2) Ferry Tariff (Gorontalo – Pagimana)
Current tariff structure of this ferry route is shown below: These tariff rates are the same level of those of Bajoe-Kolaka route.
Table 11.5.15 Tariff Structures (as of December 2007) (in Rp./unit) Passenger Adult Children Business 63,500 37,300 Economy 47,400 30,100 Vehicle Bicycle 80,000 Motorcycle 130,000 Car 795,800 Minibus 1,569,300 Bus 2,143,100 Small Truck 1,098,000 Heavy Truck 2,059,700 Source: Dinas Perhubungan, Gorontalo Province
(2) Comparison of Economic Efficiency between Road and Ferry Modes (Gorontalo – Pagimana)
1) Main Origins and Destinations using the Ferry
The results of the Interview Survey on the ferry route showed that the main Origins and Destinations (OD) of users in the Gorontalo – Pagimana route are the O-D pairs of North Sulawesi Province (Manado) – Central Province, and Gorontalo Province (Gorontalo) – Central Province). Therefore, cost comparison between via roads and via ferry is considered to be nearly equivalent to the comparison of costs between Gorontalo and Pagimana (Figure 11.5.7).
11-19
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Manado
Gorontalo 925 km via Road (Gorontalo-Pagimana)
(Ferry ) (Tomini Bay)
Pagimana
Source: JICA Study Team
Figure 11.5.7 Location of Ferry Route (Gorontalo – Pagimana)
2) Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) via Road (between Gorontalo and Pagimana)
In the hypothetical situation of “Without Ferry Operation”, vehicles and passengers using the current ferry (Gorontalo – Pagimana) will be obliged to take the longer road route which is about 925 km between Gorontalo and Pagimana. The Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) of this detour route are calculated as follows:
Table 11.5.16 Estimation of VOC for Hypothetical Situation of a “Without Ferry Case” (Gorontalo – Pagimana Route) Distance via roads Unit VOC Total VOC Vehicles/ Passengers Traffic in 2006 (Gorontalo – By IRMS 2006 (Rp.Million / (*1) Pagimana) (Rp/km) (*2) year)
Car 2,993 2,196 6,080 Small Bus - 2,692 - Big Bus - 924.9 km 3,404 - Small Truck - 3,199 - Large Truck 45 4,259 177 Passengers (*3) 8,172 924.9 km 2,692 20,345 Motorcycle (*4) 544 924.9 km 2,692 1,355 Total VOC 27,957 Note: (*1): From Table 11.5.14 (Data from Dinas Perhubungan Gorontalo Province) (*2): Indonesian Road Management System 2006, assuming 30km/hour, road roughness = fair. (*3): Passengers using ferries are assumed to divert to small buses (average occupancy = 6.69 persons) (*4): Passengers of motorcycles are assumed to divert to small buses.
11-20
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
3) Economic Costs for Ferry Operations
Operation and maintenance costs of the ferry operation in the Gorontalo – Pagimana route (in economic cost) was not readily available. In this analysis, it is assumed that similar operation costs of the Bajoe – Kolaka route can be tentatively applied to the Gorontalo – Pagimana ferry route (= Rp. 8,697 Million/year in 2006). The actual operation costs of the Gorontalo – Pagimana route may be lower than the assumed operation costs because the number of ships operating and the traffic volumes on the Bajoe – Kolaka route are higher than the Gorontalo – Pagimana route.
4) Comparative Economic Costs between Road and Ferry Modes
The results of cost comparisons are summarized below:
- VOC via detour road route = Rp. 27,957 Million /year in 2006 - Economic Costs for Ferry Operation < Rp. 8,697 Million /year in 2006
Therefore,
- Saved economic costs by ferry operation > Rp. 19,260 Million /year - Benefit/ Cost Ratio > 3.21 (=Rp. 27,957 Million / Rp. 8,697 Million)
11.5.5 Conclusions of the Economic Study on Ferry Operations
In conclusion, the results of the analysis above show the economic efficiency of ferry operations (economic benefit) on the three routes and it is recommended that the current ferry operations should be maintained and patronized together with the road network from the aspects of national economy and environmental protection (although current traffic demand is at low level).
11-21
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
CHAPTER 12 ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS AND CONCERNS IN THE MASTER PLAN
12.1 Basic Approaches
In conducting an environmental evaluation of the Master Plan, a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) was applied as a systematic process for comprehensively evaluating, at the earliest appropriate stage in the planning, a couple of alternative options for the overall road development program, thereby ensuring a full integration of the relevant biophysical, economic, and social aspects of the proposed Master Plan. In accordance with the SEA concept, environmental considerations were sufficiently incorporated into the Master Plan.
While a project-level environmental impact assessment (EIA) is implemented after specifying the detailed road development projects in the Master Plan, the SEA introduces early and strategic environmental considerations before the details on road alignments and their specifications are decided. In other words, the SEA method allows the Government of Indonesia to focus on the environmental effects for the optimum formulation of the Master Plan before specific road development projects are finalized. Thus, in comparison with a project-level EIA, the SEA can take into account a broader range of alternative proposals and mitigation measures in the procedures of formulating the Master Plan.
12.2 Objectives of the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)
12.2.1 Objective of the SEA methodology
The main objective of the SEA method is to conduct a comprehensive impact assessment of the Master Plan by using a typical SEA methodology. It does not only deal with the negative impacts of the engineering, economic, and environmental aspects of the Master Plan but also the positive ones. The typical SEA process begins with screening and scoping, and ends up with mitigation measures.
12.2.2 Reference to the SEA methodology
Various efforts by the Government of Indonesia, as well as a series of technical assistance from the World Bank, have been made in the application of Strategic Environmental Assessment to Indonesia’s environmental concerns. As reference, the Indonesian government has come up with a publication titled: “Kajian Lingkungan Strategik” (Asisiten Deputi Urusan Koordinasi Kebijakan, Deputi Bidang Kebijakan dan Kelembagaan, Kementerian Lingkungan Hindup, Mei 2002).
This Master Plan has been given a “Category A” classification in the JICA guidelines, which means that it is a project that might have significant negative impacts on the environment as well as on the communities in the affected areas. Consequently, public consultations in the Study are required to comply with the procedures stipulated in Clauses 3.2.3 of the guidelines. Clause 3.2.3.5
12-1
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
requires that, in accordance with the TOR, and in collaboration with the recipient governments, JICA should technically assist in the implementation of the IEE-level environmental and social studies and analyze alternative options including a “without project” scenario. Since the SEA process is more in-depth analysis than the IEE-level studies, the “Kajian Lingkungan Strategik” publication will be carefully considered based on the JICA guidelines.
12.3 SEA Methodologies
12.3.1 Collection of Baseline Data and Information
The collection of the baseline information was carried out to establish benchmarks for natural environmental parameters and their attributes, including the socio-economic conditions in the affected areas. This includes a description of the physical, biological, and socio-economic environments with reference to project location and the proposed activities in the Master Plan.
12.3.2 Identification of Evaluation Items
The details of the tentative primary evaluation items (i.e. engineering items), secondary items (i.e. economic and financial items), and tertiary items (i.e. environmental and social considerations items) were described. Evaluation items have been utilized for both impact assessment and the comparison of alternatives. The details of the evaluation items are explained in 12.5.
12.3.3 Impact Assessment
Impact assessment is designed to identify and assess the potential environmental impacts of proposed alternatives, thereby assisting in the design of appropriate mitigation measures. Impact assessment will be implemented among several alternatives. The results of the impact assessment will be streamlined in the impact assessment matrix.
12.3.4 Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)
The scope of the SEAi s not limited to environmental effects alone. The method provides a number of potential links with the socio-economic assessment, recognizing the idea of the SEA’s interrelationships with socio-economic issues or sustainability concerns. The so-called multi-criteria analysis (MCA), which is a typical evaluation method that judges priorities under different development alternatives, has been employed as a key methodology for the overall SEA assessment. Since a wide range of positive effects and negative impacts are included in the evaluation criteria in the MCA, the methodology allows evaluators to utilize more practical evaluation procedures. The MCA provides a comprehensive evaluation matrix with different weights for each evaluation item, thereby aiding in the selection of alternatives. More concretely, the MCA has been conducted through the following steps: (1) Selection and streamlining of evaluation items, (2) Fixing evaluation indices and rating evaluation scores, (3) Calculating weights and total evaluation scores, and (4) Formulation of an MCA matrix.
(1) Selection and Streamlining of Evaluation Items
12-2
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
The selected evaluation items will be streamlined in the form of a 5-level evaluation system composed of the following: (1) Engineering items related to project conditions, (2) Economic and financial evaluation items related to project benefits and efficiency, and (3) Environmental and social condition items related to project effects and impacts.
(2) Fixing Evaluation Indices and Rating Evaluation Scores
A wide range of indicators explaining the quantitative and qualitative evaluations on the proposed alternatives were employed. Although it is desirable that evaluation indicators are quantifiable, indicators based on narrative descriptions of the evaluation items were likewise acceptable whenever difficulties in quantifying indicators arose. In order to obtain clear-cut evaluation results for selecting optimum alternatives, all the evaluation items were rated through the use of a 5-grade scoring system.
(3) Calculation of Weights in the Total Evaluation Score
To reflect the significance of the evaluations, the weight of each evaluation item was assumed, and the total evaluation score was calculated taking these weights into account. A five-grade evaluation score were applied for the evaluation.
(4) Formulation of the MCA Matrix
To summarize the results of the evaluation, an MCA matrix, which includes the weights and the scores of each evaluation item, was prepared. The alternatives were prioritized in accordance with the total evaluation score in the MCA matrix.
12.3.5 Recommendations for Mitigation Measures
As a preventive tool on a wide range of impacts on the natural environment, mitigation measures will be formulated and incorporated into the SEA process in order to ensure that the environmental degradation resulting from the Master Plan will be minimized. In accordance with the identified and assessed impacts, a comprehensive mitigation measures were prepared in a concrete way.
12.3.6 Stakeholder’s Meetings
As an integral part of the SEA process, a series of stakeholder meetings have been held involving the representatives of various stakeholders in order to disseminate relevant information on the proposed Master Plan, as well as eliciting responses on possible positive and negative impacts as perceived by the stakeholders. Results will be shared in the SEA process.
The main objectives of the public consultation activities for the SEA process are:
z Enhance transparency in decision-making through the provision of information which will allow for the early identification and mitigation of impacts.
z Promote a more comprehensive understanding of the baseline environmental information.
12-3
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
z Provide stakeholders with relevant information on potential environmental effects at an early stage of the SEA process in order to avoid unnecessary controversies and delays in the decision-making process at latter stages due to public opposition arising from lack of understanding.
The JICA Guidelines on Environmental Considerations stipulates that in the environmental and social aspects in master planning, a series of stakeholder meetings has to be conducted in key stages of the study, i.e. during the preparation of the draft of the scoping items, during the formulation of a rough outline of environmental and social considerations, and during the preparation of the draft final report.
12.4 Baseline Information
(1) General Socio-economic Situation
In 2005, the population of Sulawesi was 15,981,056, which is about 7.30% of Indonesia’s total population. Population density in the island was 81.2 /km2, lower than the national average of 115.8 /km2 and higher than the outer-island1 average of 51.3 /km2. Makassar is the biggest city in Sulawesi with a population of almost 1,195 thousand, followed by Manado with 406,000, Palu with 291,000, Kendari with 236,000, Gorontalo with 153,000, and Palopo with 129,000. Since there are limited plains in the island its aggregate urbanization ratio of 27.5% is still lower than the national average of 42.1%.
While population density was particularly higher in the southern part of South Sulawesi and the eastern part of North Sulawesi, it was lower in Central Sulawesi and Gorontalo. Makassar City had the highest population density with 7,749/km2, followed by Gorontalo City with 2,557/km2, and Manado City with 2,440/km2.
The annual average population growth ratio of Sulawesi progressively diminished from 2.24% (1971-80), 1.86% (1980-90), 1.86% (1990-1995), 1.62% (1995-00), and to 1.19% (2000-05). Its annual average growth ratio in 2000-05 (1.19%) was slightly lower than the national average of 1.30%. However, during this period, the annual growth ratio of Gorontalo (2.04%), Southeast Sulawesi (1.69%), and West Sulawesi (1.52%) was higher, while that of South (0.96%), Central (1.07%), and North Sulawesi (1.25%) was lower than the national average.
In 2005, total GRDP in the island was Rp.73,089 billion (in constant prices since 2000) contributing only 4.2% to the country’s GDP (Rp.1,749,546 billion) while its population accounted for 7.30% of Indonesia’s total population. Agriculture (including plantations, fishery, forestry, and livestock) plays a vital role in the economy of Sulawesi, contributing 9.7% to the national total for agriculture. On the other hand, manufacturing and financial/business respectively accounted for only 1.6% and 2.6% of the national total for these sectors.
1 In this Study, outer islands refer to other islands except Java and Bali. 12-4
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 12.4.1 Sectoral GRDP of Sulawesi and Indonesia, 2005 Current Prices (Unit: Rp. 1,000) Sector Sulawesi (A) Indonesia (B) Ratio (A / B) Agriculture 24,605,974 254,391,300 9.67% Mining and Quarrying 4,973,952 162,642,000 3.06% Manufacturing 7,854,917 491,699,500 1.60% Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 600,151 11,596,600 5.18% Construction 5,251,014 103,403,800 5.08% Trade, Restaurant and Hotel 10,706,564 294,396,300 3.64% Transport and Communication 5,867,008 109,467,100 5.36% Financial and Business 4,209,374 161,959,600 2.60% Services 9,020,094 159,990,700 5.64% Total 73,089,047 1,749,546,900 4.18% Source: BPS Indonesia, 2005
(2) Topography
Sulawesi Island is composed mainly of highlands rising over 200m above sea. Its lowlands are concentrated mostly in the southern part, i.e. in South Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi Province. Rice paddies and crop cultivation is very active in South Sulawesi Province. In the lowlands of West Sulawesi Province, which is the newer one, the main industry is agriculture with palm plantations relatively on the west part along the Makassar Strait. Lead and nickel mining as well as asphalt are the main mining activities in Southeast Sulawesi Province.
On the other hand, Central Sulawesi, Gorontaro and North Sulawesi Province, on the other hand, have scarcely any lowlands. These areas have some Figure12.4.1 Topography in Sulawesi Island mineral resources such as gold, natural gas etc. North Sulawesi Province has many active volcanoes, and they have been an important tourism resource for Sulawesi Island.
12-5
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
(3) Land Use
Forest areas spread out almost from the central to the northern regions. South Sulawesi with its flat plains is relatively the agriculture granary of Sulawesi Island. Corn cultivation, palm and coconut plantations abound throughout the northern part of North Sulawesi Province and center of Gorontaro Province. Palm plantations are also found in the western coastal area of West Sulawesi Province.
On the other hand, North Sulawesi, Gorontaro and Central Sulawesi Province have few arable lands. However, they have an extensive array of well-known National Parks and Nature Reserves. These conservation areas are home to various endangered and endemic fauna and flora, and have unique biodiversities that have been attracting worldwide attention.
Paddy Field around Makassar City
Figure 12.4.2 Land Use in Sulawesi Island
12-6
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
(4) Conservation Area
The United Nations’ Convention on Biological Diversity, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora; CITES, and Ramsar Convention on Wetlands are ratified by Indonesia Government. The Conservation Area and Directorate Authority is an agency that prescribes to the Conservation on Biological Diversity.
Presently, there is no available area for the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands although the Rawa Aopa Warumohai National Park in Southeast Sulawesi is being proposed as one such site.
Conservation areas are categorized into six classifications and defined as follows;
Table 12.4.2 Classification of Conservation areas in Indonesia Classification Definition Nature Reserve Most essential area for the preservation and conservation of biodiversities, rare species of fauna and flora, particularly to be dispensable for the management, operation control and protection. Wildlife Reserve Important area for the preservation and conservation of biodiversities, rare species of fauna and flora, to be dispensable for the management, operation control and protection under strict regulations. National Park Important area for the preservation and conservation of biodiversity, rare species of fauna and flora, to be opened to the public for education and recreation purposes. Nature Relatively low importance for the preservation and conservation Recreational Park of biodiversity, rare species of fauna and flora, to be opened to the Public for recreation and education purposes. Hunting Game Of low importance for the preservation and conservation of Reserve biodiversity, rare species of fauna and flora, with permitted hunting for specific animals (i.e.boars, deer and some fishes) Grand Forest Park Necessary for the conservation of forests for the purpose of reservoir Protection.
The permission and prohibition items in each conservation area are shown in Table 12.4.3.
The item with the most severe restraint area is “Nature Reserve,” and there are 18 regions nominated as such in Sulawesi Island. The second item with serious restraint is “Wildlife Reserve”, and there are 16 such regions. However, despite these stated restraints and restrictions in actual conditions there is illegal poaching from residents or other offenders in and around the conservation areas where illegal offenders hunt the endemic and/or protected animals either for selling and/or consumption.
12-7
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
The detailed data of the conservation area in Sulawesi Island in 2001 are arranged in Table 12.4.4. Its nature reserve area is about 40 km2, and its wildlife reserve area is about 21 km2. The national park is about 263 km2 in size and about 6.5 times as large as the nature reserve. The essential conservation area as above three areas is occupied about 0.2 % of Sulawesi Island.
12-8
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 12.4.3 Permission and Prohibition of Conservation areas in Indonesia
Conservation Area Nature Hunting Nature Wildlife National Grand Forest Recreational Game Reserve Reserve Park Park Activities Park Reserve Cultivation of edible cropps××××××
Cultivation of fruite trees ×××○○○
Migration ××××××
Commercial cutting×××××× Gathering of useful plants and ×○×××○ firewoods Hunting ××××○○
Fishery ××○×○○
Camping ×○○○○○
Gathering for research×△△△△△ Management and preservation ×○○○○○ for ecosystem Transfusion and replantation of ×○○○○○ internal species Gathering of wisteria and ×××△×× bamboo Development for mineral ×△△△△△ rsources Management and preservation ×○○○○○ for wild animals and plants Entry of tourists×○○○○○ Migration and replantation of ×××××○ extraneous species Resource : Field Report of UNDP/FAO National Park Development Project INS/78/061 Remarks ○: Permission △: Particular Privilege ×: Prohibition
12-9
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 12.4.4 Data of Conservation Areas in Sulawesi Island Classification No. Conservation Area Name Area (ha) Province Name 1 Tnagkoko Batu Angus 3,196 North Sulawesi Province 2 Gunung Dua Saudara 4,299 North Sulawesi Province 3 Gunung Lokon 100 North Sulawesi Province 4 Gunung Ambang 8,638 North Sulawesi Province 5 Tangale 113 Gorontalo Province 6 Mas Popaya Raja 160 Gorontalo Province 7 Panua 45,000 Gorontalo Province 8 Tanung Api 4,246 Central Sulawesi Province 9 Morowali 225,000 Central Sulawesi Province 10 Pangi Binanga 6,000 Central Sulawesi Province 11 Pegunungan Faruhumpenai 90,000 South Sulawesi Province 12 Kalaena 110 South Sulawesi Province 13 Ponda-Ponda 80 South Sulawesi Province 14 Bulu Saraung 5,690 South Sulawesi Province 15 Bantimurung 1,000 South Sulawesi Province Nature Reserve (Cagar Alam) (Cagar Reserve Nature 16 Karaenta 1,000 South Sulawesi Province 17 Lamedae 500 Southeast Sulawesi Province 18 Napabalano 9 Southeast Sulawesi Province Sub-Total 395,141 1 Nantu 31,215 North Sulawesi Province 2 Gunung Manebbu-Nembu 6,500 North Sulawesi Province 3 Karangkelang Utara dan Selatan 21,400 Gorontalo Province 4 Pinjam/Tanjung Mantop 1,613 Central Sulawesi Province 5 Dolangan 463 Central Sulawesi Province 6 Pati-Patai 198 Central Sulawesi Province 7 Lombuyan 1 & 2 3,665 Central Sulawesi Province 8 Bangkiriang 12,500 Central Sulawesi Province 9 Lampoko Mampie 2,000 West Sulawesi Province 10 Komara 3,390 South Sulawesi Province Margasatwa) 11 Bonto Bahari 4,000 South Sulawesi Province 12 Tanjung Peropa 38,000 Southeast Sulawesi Province Wildlife Reserve (Suaka Reserve Wildlife 13 Tanjung Amelengo 850 Southeast Sulawesi Province 14 Tanjung Batikolo 5,500 Southeast Sulawesi Province 15 Buton Utara 82,000 Southeast Sulawesi Province Sub-Total 213,293 1 Bunaken (Marine) 89,065 North Sulawesi Province 2 Bogani Nani Wartabone 287,115 North Sulawesi/Gorontalo Province 3 Lore Lindu 229,000 Central Sulawesi Province 4 Taka Bonerate (Marine) 530,765 South Sulawesi Province (Taman
Nasional) 5 Rawa Aopa Watumohai 105,194 Southeast Sulawesi Province
National Park 6 Kepulauan Wkatobi (Marine) 1,390,000 Southeast Sulawesi Province Sub-Total 2,631,139 1 Batu Angus 635 North Sulawesi Province 2 Batu Putih 615 North Sulawesi Province 3 Air Terjun Wera 250 Central Sulawesi Province 4 Danau Matano 30,000 South Sulawesi Province 5 Danau Towuti 65,000 South Sulawesi Province 6 Nanggala 3 500 South Sulawesi Province 7 Sidrap 500 South Sulawesi Province 8 Lejja 1,265 South Sulawesi Province 9 Cani Sirenrang 3,125 South Sulawesi Province 10 Kepulauan Kapoposang 50,000 South Sulawesi Province
Wisata Alam) 11 Bantimurung 18 South Sulawesi Province 12 Goa Patunuang 1,500 South Sulawesi Province 13 Malino 3,500 South Sulawesi Province 14 Mangolo 5,200 Southeast Sulawesi Province
Nature Recreational Park (Taman Park Recreational Nature 15 Tirita Rimba 500 Southeast Sulawesi Province 16 Teluk Lasolo 81,800 Southeast Sulawesi Province Sub-Total 244,408 Hunting Game Reserve 1 Landusa Tomata 5,000 Central Sulawesi Province (Taman Buru) 2 Komara 4,610 South Sulawesi Province Sub-Total 9,610 Grand Forest Park 1 Palu 8,100 Central Sulawesi Province (Taman Hutan Raya) 2 Murhum 8,146 South Sulawesi Province Sub-Total 16,246 Total 3,509,837 ResourceSource : Directorate of Conservation Area, Directorate General of Forest Protection and Naure Conservation, the Department of Forestry (December 2001)
12-10
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Source: Eco-regional Conservation Assessment Sulawesi – Indonesia Sulawesi Road M/P & F/S JICA study team data Year 2007 Figure 12.4.3 Location of the Major Conservation Areas in Sulawesi Island
12-11
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
(5) Biodiversity
Wallace’s Line passes through the west side of Sulawesi Island while Weber’s Line is at the east side. Both these lines are very essential for zoology, botany and biology. In the taxonomy of its fauna and flora, Sulawesi Island is similar to Madagascar Island of Africa.
Wallacea is famous and rich in biogeography. It consists of many islands in Eastern Indonesia and includes Sulawesi Island (178,700 km2). Sulawesi is the biggest island in the group occupying about 53% of the total land area and is located in northwest part of Wallacea.
Wallacea has a large number of species that is found nowhere else in the world, in part because it is tropical and made up of many islands and also because of its complex geological history. Its total number of species is estimated at about 11,400 with a high potential of unconfirmed species in Wallacea’s biogeographic realm. The area contributes to their isolation and the evolution of many unique species.
Table 12.4.5 Diversity and Endemism in Wallacea Taxonomic Endemic Percent Species Endemic Species (samples) Group Species Endemism Plants 10,000 1,500 15.0% babirusa, anoa, tarsiers, Mammals 222 127 57.2% kuskus, sulawesi palm civet, celebes black macaque etc. maleo, matinan flycatcher, white-tipped monarch, taliabu Birds 647 262 40.5% masked-owl, sulawesi red- knobbed hornbill etc. calamorhabdium, rabdion, Reptiles 222 99 44.6% cyclotyphlops etc. Amphibian sulawesi toad, green flog, 48 33 68.8% s common green turtle etc. Freshwater 250 50 20.0% halfbeak, goby, oryzia etc. Fishes 11,389 2,071 18.2% Threat Categories: CR = Critically Endangered; EN = Endangered; VU = Vulnerable; EW = Extinct in the Wild Source: Biodiversity Hotspots –Wallacea- Endemism: Single = endemic to one hotspot; Multiple = not endemic to Figure 12.4.4 Location of Wallacea any one hotspot, but to the combined area of two or more hotspots
Most of these endemic and essential species can be found in the conservation areas such as national parks, nature reserves and so on. Since endangered species, such as Maleo which is in the Red Data Book, are part of the critical biodiversity, the development of the conservation areas should be controlled by the regional government.
There are still a lot of endemic species that are not totally known and confirmed, including their habitat, surrounding conditions, nesting, etc. This necessitates the development of research and investigation for fauna and flora in Sulawesi Island to further confirm and study essential species their biodiversity for the foreseeable future.
12-12
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
1) Plants
Although the flora of the island region is not well-known, it is estimated that there are about 10,000 species of vascular plants, with roughly 1,500 endemic species and at least 12 endemic genera. There are about 500 endemic species on Sulawesi and percent endemism is about 5%.
The mmangrove and ebony are protected and prohibited from being cut down. The mangrove is distributed throughout the coastal areas of Gorontaro, South Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi Province. The Sulawesi ebony tree is scattered mainly in mountainous areas of Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi and South Sulawesi Province. Central Sulawesi is a
well known source of ebony trees and their cutting for export Ebony Tree (Kayu Hitam) is prohibited without the proper processing and procedures. Source : Provincial Tourist Board
Young Ebony Tree
Source: Biology of Sulawesi Management of Ebony Figure 12.4.5 Location of the Major Conservation Areas in Sulawesi Island
12-13
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
2) Birds
There are about 650 regularly occurring bird species in Wallacea, and roughly 262 (about 40 %) of these are endemic. There are also 29 endemic genera. As a testimony to the diversity and endemism of Wallacea, ten Endemic Bird Areas (EBAs) have been included in the hotspot by BirdLife International.
Sulawesi has the largest fauna, with 356 species, including 96 endemics. Some 50 bird species are threatened with extinction in this hotspot.
Among them the maleo (Macrocephalon maleo, EN) is famous for their behavior. This chicken-like bird builds earth mounds (including dummy mounds) wherein they bury their eggs. The young birds come
out of their mounds after three months already Maleo (Celebes Mound Builder) feathered in adult plumage.
Table 12.4.6 Main Endemic Birds of Sulawesi Island
Species name Number Remaks (for example) Eagles and Hawks 6 Sulawesi serpent-eagle etc. Mound Builders 2 Maleo etc. Rails 3 Blue-faced rail etc. Snipe 1 Sulawesi Woodcock Pigeons and Dove 8 White-bellied imperial pigeon etc. Parrots 9 Ornate lorikeet etc. Cuckoos 4 Yellow-billed Malkoha etc. Blyth's Hornbill Masked Owls 2 Sulawesi owl etc. True Owls 2 Ochre-bellied boobook owl etc. Nightjars 1 Diabolical nightjar Kingfishers 6 Lilac-breasted kingfisher etc. Bee-eaters 1 Purple-bearded bee-eater Rollers 1 Sulawesi roller Hornbills 2 Sulawesi dwarf hornbill etc. Woodpeckers 2 Sulawesi woodpecker etc. Cuckoo-Shrikes 5 Sulawesi cuckoo-shrike etc. Babblers 2 Sulawesi babbler etc. Thrushes 4 Great shortwing etc. Lilac-cheeked Kingfisher Warblers 2 Sulawesi leaf-warbler etc. Flycatchers 6 Rufous-throated flycatcher etc. Whistlers 3 Sulphur-bellied whistler etc. Flowerpeckers 3 Crimson-crowned flowerpecker etc. Sunbirds 3 Red-faced honeyeater etc. White-eyes 3 Pale-bellied white-eye etc. Mynas and Starlin 5 White-necked myna etc. Wood-swallows 1 Ivory-backed woodswallow Crows 1 Piping crow total 88 Source : The Ecology of Sulawesi (Ecology of Indonesia Series) Sulawesi golden owl Source : Provincial Tourist Board 12-14
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
3) Mammals
More than 125 of Wallacea's 220-plus mammal species are found nowhere else in the world and they have a high level of mammal endemism. If endemism is recalculated to exclude more than 125 species of bats (because they disperse easily) in the Madagascar and Sundaland hotspots, the level of mammal endemism of Wallacea still stands at an astonishing 88 percent.
One of the most unusual mammals in Sulawesi is the babirusa (Babyrousa babyrussa, VU) that is very famous and protected. Babirusas (literally "pig-deer" in Bahasa-Indonesian) are pig-like animals characterized by the male's long recurved tusks that penetrate its upper Babirus lip. Source : Provincial Tourist Board
Another famous protected mammal is two species of anoas, or dwarf buffaloes, which are endemic to the forests of Sulawesi. The lowland anoa (Bubalus depressicornis, EN) and the mountain anoa (Bubalus quarlesi, EN) can be found in the conservation areas, national parks and forests of Sulawesi.
A number of endemic primates are also found in Sulawesi island. There are at least seven species of endemic Anoa macaques and at least five species of Source : Provincial Tourist Board endemic tarsiers. The Celebes black Macaque is seriously threatened with extinction among endemic macaques in Sulawesi. Another rate primate is the spectral tarsier which are tiny, goggle-eyed creatures that resemble mammalian tree frogs more
than monkeys. They can be found in various conservation areas Celebes black macaque and national parks. Source : Provincial Tourist Board The Sulawesi palm civet (Macrogalidia musschenbroekii, VU), which as the name suggests is found only in Sulawesi. The palm civet along with around 25 species of rodents still range the islands.
Unfortunately, about one-third of endemic mammals in this hotspot are threatened with extinction.
12-15
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 12.4.7 Mammals of Sulawesi Island Species name Number Remaks (for example) Phalangers 3 Dwarf cuscus etc. Shrews 9 Long-tailed shrew etc. Frut Bats 23 Sulawesi rousette etc. Tomb Bats 5 Philippine sheath-tailed bat etc. False Vampires 1 Lesser false vampire Horseshoe Bats 4 Sulawesi horseshoe bat etc. Leaf-nosed Bats 6 Dusky leaf-nosed bat etc. Evening Bats 21 Grey large-footed bat etc. Free-tailed Bats 2 Sulawesi hairless bat etc. Rats 46 Sulawesi giant-rat etc. Squirrels 8 Sulawesi lomg-nosed squirrel etc. Porcupines 1 Javan porcupine Monkeys 4 Black-crested macaque etc. Tarsiers 1 Sulawesi tarsier Civets 3 Sulawesi civet etc. Buffalo 2 Lowland anoa, Mountain anoa Deer 1 Rusa Pigs 2 Babirusa, Sulawesi pig total 142 Source : The Ecology of Sulawesi (Ecology of Indonesia Series) 4) Amphibian
The amphibian species of Sulawesi Island is not yet fully documented and studied. There is a need to conduct further studies and surveys regarding endemic amphibian species to confirm their nature and biodiversity.
The confirmed amphibian species in Sulawesi Island at present are shown in Table 12.4.8.
Table 12.4.8 Amphibian Species of Sulawesi Island Species name Number Remaks (for example) Toads 2 Bufo celebensis etc. Narrow-mouthed toads 7 Oreophryne variabilis etc. True frogs 14 R. arathooni etc. Tree frogs 4 Polypedetes leucomystax etc. total 27 Source : The Ecology of Sulawesi (Ecology of Indonesia Series)
Sulawesi green toad Yellow and brown toad Source : Provincial Tourist Board
12-16
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
5) Reptiles
The confirmed species of snakes in Sulawesi Island at present are shown in Table 12.4.9. There are 64 snake species in Sulawesi Island, which includes poisonous varieties such as cobras, etc.
Table 12.4.9 Snakes of Sulawesi Island Species name Number Remaks (for example) Blind snakes 3 Rhamphotyphlops braminus etc. Cylinder snakes 2 Cylindrophis melanotus etc. Pythons 3 Candoia carinata etc. Sunbeam snakes 1 Xenopeltis unicolor Wart snakes 1 Acrochordus granulatus Colubrid snakes 40 Psammodynastes pulverulentus etc. Cobras, Coral snakes and Sea snakes 12 Bungarus candidus etc. Vipers 2 Trimeresurus wagleri etc. total 64 Source : The Ecology of Sulawesi (Ecology of Indonesia Series) The confirmed lizards in Sulawesi Island at present are shown in Table 12.4.10. There is information that crocodiles inhabit the northern part of Central Sulawesi Province. A big lizard of over 1m in length can also be found in and around Makassar City. Although it looks ferocious, the lizard is very timid. Big lizard (Biawak)
Source : Provincial Tourist Board Table 12.4.10 Reptiles of Sulawesi Island
Species name Number Remaks (for example) Agamidae 7 Bronchocoela cristatella etc. Dibamidae 1 Dibamus novaeguineae Gekkonidae 10 Cosymbotus platyurus etc. Scincidae 29 Carlia melanopogon etc. Crocodylidae 2 Crocodylus porosus etc. total 49 Source : The Amphibians and Reptailes of Sulawesi, with Notes on The Distribution and Chromosomal Number of Frogs The confirmed turtle species in Sulawesi Island are shown in Table 12.4.11. Turtle egg laying areas around Sulawesi Island is shown in Figure 12.4.6.
Table 12.4.11 Turtle Species of Sulawesi Island Species name Number Remaks (for example) Cheloniidae 4 Dermochelyidae 1 Emydidae 2 Cuora amboinensis etc. Testudinidae 1 Indotestudo forsteni total 8 Source : The Amphibians and Reptailes of Sulawesi, with Notes on The Distribution and Chromosomal Number of Frogs
12-17
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Common green turtle Source : BAPEDALDA
Figure 12.4.6 Location of Turtles Egg-laying areas around Sulawesi Island
6) Freshwater Fishes
Nearly all of the more than 300 freshwater fish species are found in Wallacea and about 75 of these species are endemic. On the island of Sulawesi alone, there are nearly 70 known fish species, about three-quarters of which are endemic. The Malili Lakes in South Sulawesi have at least 15 endemic and quite beautiful telmatherinid fishes, including three endemic Oryzias, two endemic halfbeaks, and seven endemic gobies.
12-18
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Other than helping promote the natural wonders of Sulawesi Island, there is an evident hope that the areas’ remarkable endemic species will bring both national and international attention to the areas to help promote its protection and likewise improve the development of the local people.
There is a need to strike a good balance between safeguarding biological diversity, the traditional way of life of the communities, and allowing sustainable development and improved access to basic services such as healthcare, education and transport. The communities of Sulawesi Island are perhaps the key stakeholders in the conservation of its natural reserves and Sulawesi Island as a whole.
Table 12.4.12 Freshwater Fishes in Sulawesi’s Rivers Species name Number Remaks (for example) Gobiidae 2 Sicyopterus sp. etc. Eleotridae 2 Oxyeleotris marmorata etc. Cichlidae 2 Oreochromis mossambicus Trewavas etc. Cyprinidae 3 Osteochilus hasselti etc. Channidae 1 Channa striata Belontiidae 1 Trichogaster trichopterus Oryziidae Aplocheilidae 1 Aplocheilus panchax Clariidae 1 Clarias batrachus Scorpaenidae 1 Pterois sp. Poeciliidae 2 Poecilia reticulata Schuster etc. Centropomidae 1 Chanda sp. Oryziidae 2 Oryzias celebenis etc. Hemirhamphidae 2 Hemirhamphus sp. etc. total 21 Source : The Inland Fishes and The Distribution of Adrianichthyoidea of Dermogenys pusillus Sulawesi Island, with Special Comments on The Endangered Species in Lake Source : Provincial Tourist Board Poso
Table 12.4.13 Freshwater Fishes of Sulawesi’s Lakes
Species name Number Remaks (for example) Adrianichthyidae 3 Adrianichthys kruyti etc. Oryziidae 6 Oryzias celebensis etc. Gobiidae 3 Webrgobius amadi etc. Hemirhampidae 4 Dermogenys megarrhamphus etc. Eleotridae 2 Ophieleotris aporos etc. Telmatherina Atherinidae 3 Telmatherina celebensis etc. Belontiidae 1 Trichogaster trichopterus Cyprinidae 3 Cyprinus carpio etc. Channidae 1 Channa striata Poeciliidae 1 Poecilia reticulata Aplocheilidae 1 Aplocheilus panchax Clariidae 2 Clarias batrachus etc. Cichlidae 2 Oreochromis mossambica etc. Anguillidae 1 Anguila sp. Anabantidae 2 Anabas testudineus etc. total 35 Oryzias celebensis Source : The Inland Fishes and The Distribution of Adrianichthyoidea of Sulawesi Island, with Special Comments on The Endangered Species in Lake Source : Provincial Tourist Board Poso
12-19
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
7) Coral Reefs and the Dugong Habitat around Sulawesi Island
Important coral biodiversity is scattered around Sulawesi Island as shown in Figure 12.4.7. The coral reef is useful for the preservation of the biodiversity and fishery production. In addition, it is favorable for tourism resources. Sulawesi Island has three National Marine Parks and two Nature Recreational Marine Parks.
Dugong habitat areas can be found around Sulawesi Island and they venture into some National Marine Parks and coral reef areas. The International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCNNR) lists the dugong as a species vulnerable to extinction, while the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species limits or bans the trade of derived products based on the population involved including the dugong.
Dugong Source : BAPEDALDA
Figure 12.4.7 Location of Coral Reefs and Dugong habitat around Sulawesi Island
12-20
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
(6) Air Pollution
The main industries in Sulawesi Island are agriculture, processing of agricultural products, mining and cement products etc. Therefore, air pollution sources are mainly motorcycles and vehicles, it is assumed that the growth of traffic volume will be directly connected with the deterioration of air quality.
The air quality condition in the Mamminasata area where Makassar, the biggest city of Sulawesi Island is located, is not so bad as showed by the result of on-site survey. Although TSP (dust)
densities and PM10 levels showed relatively high levels other items produced lower values compared with air quality environmental standards.
If the regulation on strict exhaust gas emission is processed, it can be assumed that air quality conditions will not dramatically worsen even if future traffic volumes will increases. Moreover, the increasing use of bio-fuels (i.e. ethanol and bio-diesel oil) is expected to contribute to this phenomenon.
Table 12.4.14 Air Quality Condition in the Mamminasata Area (2007)
SO CO NO O HC PM TSP Pb NO. 2 2 3 10 μg/Nm3 μg/Nm3 μg/Nm3 μg/Nm3 μg/Nm3 μg/Nm3 μg/Nm3 μg/Nm3 Sungguminasa crosspoint 17.2 133.7 32.5 3.9 15.6 79.0 322.2 0.003 Area
Urban Batua Raya street 14.7 101.3 42.5 5.9 15.8 80.7 239.1 0.005 Kantor Bupati Maros 10.0 84.3 25.9 3.8 16.3 43.8 168.2 0.003 Daya crosspoint 9.8 148.3 31.2 2.9 14.0 84.6 169.3 0.006 Hertasning street 10.7 101.0 33.7 4.4 14.3 77.1 126.3 0.004 Limbung (National road) 10.8 135.3 30.9 4.2 23.8 42.4 150.2 0.003
Sub-urban Area Sub-urban Kantor Bupati Takalar 9.3 101.4 35.4 4.7 19.3 44.9 146.3 0.002 Mandai crosspoint (New road) 9.5 95.9 34.6 4.9 13.4 39.5 121.3 0.003 Palleco (National road) 11.5 133.1 29.5 5.1 17.0 41.0 140.3 0.001 Galesong Utara (Takalar) 11.9 89.5 34.0 4.5 12.4 57.2 110.3 0.001 Samata (Gowa) 13.7 90.4 40.4 4.3 15.8 57.2 113.0 0.001
Rural Town Area ADS street (Manggala) 13.7 128.9 39.3 5.9 19.0 48.5 152.3 0.002 Baronbong (National road) 11.9 84.3 36.2 4.1 14.7 68.7 124.5 0.001 Moncongloe (Maros) 10.6 117.5 30.3 4.2 13.3 53.8 150.6 0.001 Panaikang (Gowa) 11.0 87.9 39.6 4.2 14.6 59.0 124.1 0.001 Bontmaranu (Gowa) 9.8 92.2 31.7 4.4 12.4 58.4 96.1 0.001 Rural Area Malino street (Gowa) 12.7 105.7 35.2 5.5 18.8 62.5 123.3 0.001 Bajeng (Gowa) 11.9 102.1 32.3 4.8 14.7 58.9 145.6 0.001 National standard for ambient air quality *2) measured duration 1 hour 900 30,000 400 235 - - - - measured duration 3 hours ----160--- measured duration 24 hours 365 10,000 150 - - 150 230 2.00 Local standard for ambient air quality *3) measured duration 1 hour 900 30,000 400 230 - - - - measured duration 3 hours ----160--- Environmental Standard Environmental measured duration 24 hours 360 10,000 150 - - 150 230 2.00 Notes: Exceeding the standard value Source: *1) Sulawesi Road M/P & F/S JICA study team data Year 2007 *2) Government Regulation regarding Control of Air Pollution No.41-1999 *3) Governor's Regulation of South Sulawesi Province No. 14-2003 *4) Governor's Dgree of the Minister for Environment concerning Guidekines for Establishment of Environmental Quality Standards No.2-1988 *5) Governor's Dgree of South Sulawesi Province No.465-1995
12-21
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
(7) Noise Levels
Compared with air quality levels, the noise levels along Mamminasata’s main areas have worser conditions. The main reasons for these are the large volume of motorcycle usage, the driving customs of local drivers and the frequent usage of motorcycle horns.
It is anticipated that the introduction of better muffler technologies as well as the intensification of noise controls and regulations will be quickly applied. Also important are the mitigation measures on soundproofing as well as air conditioning on hospitals and schools near national roads. Buffer zones such as roadside trees along main lines is likewise effective in reducing traffic noise.
Table 12.4.14 Noise Levels in the Mamminasata Region
L dB(A) NO. 50 Average Remarks daytime night Sungguminasa crosspoint 76.2 66.5 71.3 National road Area
Urban Batua Raya street 73.6 65.7 69.4 City road Kantor Bupati Maros 72.8 66.2 69.5 National road Daya crosspoint 75.1 63.8 69.5 National road Hertasning street 74.8 60.2 67.5 City road Limbung (National road) 71.9 59.0 65.5 National road
Sub-urban Area Sub-urban Kantor Bupati Takalar 70.3 56.0 63.2 National road Mandai crosspoint (New road) 71.9 54.3 63.1 National road Palleco (National road) 71.3 54.4 62.8 National road Galesong Utara (Takalar) 58.8 49.5 54.1 Provincial road Samata (Gowa) 64.0 55.9 60.0 City road
Rural TownRural Area ADS street (Manggala) 65.9 51.2 58.6 City road Baronbong (National road) 70.9 62.3 66.6 National road Moncongloe (Maros) 66.2 59.1 62.6 Kabpaten road Panaikang (Gowa) 60.0 52.8 56.4 Kabpaten road Bontmaranu (Gowa) 60.9 51.9 56.4 Kabpaten road Rural Area Malino street (Gowa) 70.2 57.4 63.8 Provincial road Bajeng (Gowa) 58.6 50.9 54.7 Kabpaten road Area classification National Provincial Commercial and Service 70.0 70.0 Industry 70.0 70.0 Office Buildings and Commercial 65.0 65.0 Recreation 70.0 65.0 Government and Public Facilities 60.0 60.0 Housing and Settlement 55.0 55.0 Environmental Standard Environmental Green Open Space 50.0 50.0 Notes: Exceeding the standard value Source: *1) Sulawesi Road M/P & F/S JICA study team data Year 2007 *2) Government Regulation regarding Control of Air Pollution No.41-1999 *3) Governor's Regulation of South Sulawesi Province No. 14-2003
12-22
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
(8) Proposed Specie Indicator on Natural Environment Grades
The Study Team proposes a specie indicator on the following animals:
Babirusa is the strangest and most famous animal species in Sulawesi Island. It inhabits the mountainous areas especially North Sulawesi, Gorontaro and Central Sulawesi provinces.
The anoa branches into two separate species: the mountain and lowland anoa. Although its habitat is widely distributed throughout Sulawesi its number are rapidly decreasing.
Celebes black macaque is most kwown primate species that inhabits Sulawesi Island. The habitat area of this species is mainly located in the Tangkoko Natural Reserve in North Sulawesi Province.
The spectral tarsier inhabits a wide range of mountainous areas as well as the conservation area of Sulawesi Island. Its habitat are in Tangkoko and Morowali Nature Reserves.
Source : Provincial Tourist Board
Figure 12.4.8 Selected Indicator species (Mammals)
The maleo is a remarkable bird species whose habitat is widely spread throughout Sulawesi
12-23
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Island except for South Sulawesi Province. Its known habitat area are the Tangkoko Nature Reserve, Bogani Nani Wartabone National Park, Lore Lindu National Park, Morowali Nature Reserve, Rawa Aopa Watomohai National Park and other areas.
Source : Provincial Tourist Board
Figure 12.4.9 Selected Indicator species (Birds)
12-24
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
12.5 Evaluation of Pollution
(1) Pre-Construction
It has been surmised that pre-construction impacts impacts on the natural environment is almost non-existent. Even tehn, it is still important to anticipate the method of construction, plans, schedules and the corresponding mitigation measures in this phase. The proper construction machine schedule, process of construction, manpower plans and other preparatory activities are requisites in the arrangement of smooth construction activities so as to ensure the reduction of negative impacts on the natural environment.
The road development plan basically does not pass through nature reserves and national park areas. In cases of improvement (i.e. widening, pavement construction, etc.) for existing roads that passes through nature reserve and national park areas, it is preferable to consider and prepare programs for selecting protection zones, alternative areas and the use of other effective mitigation measures for fauna and flora (especially above-mentioned the indicator species).
(2) Construction
1) Air Pollution
Impacts on air quality are relatively small considering that the number of construction machines and conveyance trucks and vehicles are limited. On the other hand, since construction will mainly be done during the dry season, countermeasures will be necessary to reduce dust and TSP particles.
Dust and TSP from the construction will be generated in a short period during the land leveling stage (excavation and filling). They can be minimized through countermeasures such as sprinkling water and road cleaning. Air pollution caused by the operation of construction machines can also be reduced by regular machine maintenance and efficiently scheduled operations.
2) Noise and Vibrations
Noise from construction machines can be reduced through regular maintenance and the efficient scheduling of operations. Noises in and around the construction areas should be monitored so that timely countermeasures can be undertaken. For example, it has been evaluated that noise impacts can be reduced through the proper scheduling of the operating hours of construction machines, especially near sensitive facilities such as the hospitals, schools and mosques.
The number of the vehicles and machines of construction is limited. The impacts of noise and vibration will be able to control by using proper mitigation measures, and the claim of noise and vibration by residential people will be reduced. Therefore, the environmental impact during the construction phase may be forecast and evaluated based on the result of study and appropriate
12-25
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
countermeasures for noise and vibration.
3) Water Pollution
BOD5, COD and Total Suspended Solid (TSS) have relatively high indexes around highly dense or populated areas. However, in general the density of heavy metals has been surmised to be low considering that there are few polluting factories along the rivers.
Road construction however will increase the TSS in nearby river bodies. But they can be minimized through the installation of temporary sedimentation ponds during the early stage of construction. Pollution will also be limited because turbid water will be generated in a limited period during excavation and ground filling. Construction of bridge piers in the rivers should adopt the steel sheet pile method or other similar methods in order to avoid water turbidity.
Drainage water should be discharged after treating it properly of TSS, pH, oil and grease. It is also important to enforce regular monitoring to evaluate conditions and ensure river water standards. Storm water from construction sites will be more difficult to analyze because it is affected by a variety of conditions such as rainfall, reclamation, ground and soil. Therefore, environmental impacts may be evaluated through planned studies, programmed countermeasures and the scheduled monitoring of water pollution.
4) Fauna and Flora
If some unique species and/or other rare fauna and flora are discovered in the construction phase, it will be necessary to take the proper measures, such as instituting limited protection zones, considering alternative areas, etc.
There are countless fruit trees around houses and along roads. These trees should be protected as much as possible from the project, since most of these fruit trees are a source of money income for residents. An eco-friendly road project should design buffer zones including some existing crops.
(3) Post-Construction
1) Air Pollution (NOx)
The Study Team proposes the mathematical method in estimating the exhaust coefficient of the total NOx volume from the total road network. The exhaust coefficient of small and large vehicles with average speeds is shown Table 12.5.1. The flow of the mathematical method for the NOx volume forecast is shown in Figure 12.5.1.
12-26
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 12.5.1 Exhaust Coefficient by Vehicle Type (NOx)
NOx volume = ( A1 x p1 + A2 x p2 ) x Q
A1 : Small Vehicles Volume (vehicles/day) A2 : Large Vehicles Volume (vehicles/day) Q : Traffic Volume (vehicles/day)
The effect of Proposed Project (road improvement, some realignments and so on) is evaluated by comparing the NOx volumes of both cases (i.e. with and without-project). In the “with-project” case increases in average speeds as a result of road improvements such as widening, alignment, pavement etc. is expected.
The average speed of all road networks in the “without-project” case has been calculated to be 25.4 km/h, while for the “with-project” case it is 35.4 km/h.
12-27
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Figure 12.5.1 Prediction Flows in NOx Volumes
The increase in average speed (10 km/h up) is expected, while the reduction of NOx volume (14 %) is also anticipated in the implementation of the project (i.e. road improvement etc.). The anticipated NOx volumes is shown in Table 12.5.2.
Table 12.5.2 Results of NOx Volumes
Since bio-diesel fuel (BDF) and bio-ethanol will be used for construction machines, trucks and other vehicles the efficient reduction of air pollution is expected. BDF and bio-ethanol have been studied and developed as substitute fuels in Indonesia.
BDF is refined through the chemical reduction of palm oil and/or used oil. Bio-ethanol is produced by fermentation and distillation from sugar cane and corn. The merits and demerits in the se of bio-fuels are shown below:
12-28
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Merits of BDF use: • Reduction of SO2, NO2, SPM, Pb • High safety and simple for usage • Possible for mixing normal diesel fuel
Demerits of BDF use: • Higher price than normal diesel fuel (about 1.5~2 times) • Tough to get because limited distribution route
Merits of bio-ethanol use: • No CO2 • Recyclable energy from vegetable. • High efficiency of thermal energy. • Possible for mixing with normal gasoline.
Demerits of bio-ethanol use: • Price comparable with gasoline but production is limited. • Hard to source due to limited distribution routes.
2) Noise Levels
The Study Team proposes the multi repression analysis among the traffic volume, vehicle composition ratio, urbanization levels and road grade in each survey point. Urbanization is classified into 5 levels: urban, semi-urban, city, town and rural. Road grade is also classified into 5 grades: national provincial, prefectural, county, town and village road. The flow of multi repression analysis for noise level forecast is shown in Figure 12.5.2.
The data applied in the multi repression analysis was the result of an on-site noise survey in the Mamminasata area for 2009.
12-29
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Figure 12.5.2 Prediction Flows of Noise Levels
The results of the forecasts are shown in Table 12.5.3 to Table 12.5.8. Around Manado, Palu, Makassar and Kendari City, where traffic will be concentrated, it is assumed that peak noise levels will exceed the 70 dB(A) environmental standard especially in and around commercial areas. Since traffic density is expected to increase in the future the necessary countermeasures especially in areas where hospitals and schools are located should be planned and put in place to protect them against the impact of noise pollution.
12-30
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 12.5.3 Results of Forecast Peak Noise Levels in 2024 (around Manado area)
Table 12.5.4 Result of Forecast Peak Noise Levels in 2024 (around Gorontalo area)
Table 12.5.5 Results of Forecast of Peak Noise Levels in 2024 (around Palu area)
Table 12.5.6 Results of Forecast of Peak Noise Levels in 2024 (around Mamuju area)
12-31
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 12.5.7 Results of the Forecast of Peak Noise Levels in 2024 (around Makassar area)
Table 12.5.8 Results of the Prospects of Peak Noise Levels in 2024 (around Kendari area)
3) Water Pollution
It has been assumed that there will be no wastewater discharge from the target roads in the project operation phase.
12-32
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
12.6 Results of the SEA Process
12.6.1 Setting-up Alternative Options for SEA
The basic requirement of the SEA assessment calls for a comparison of several alternative options which includes the “Zero Option” alternative. To get the best and optimum solution for the improvement of the island-wide road network plan all options for the Master Plan will be compared with other possible alternatives including the “Zero Option”.
z Option 1 (Zero Option): The existing road network will be properly maintained without new investment in addition to the existing roads.
z Option 2 (Road Network Improvement): The road network will be improved with additional investment on the existing road network.
z Option 3 (Road Network plus Marine Transport Improvement): The road network will be improved together with the improvement of accessibility through marine transport.
Although the Master Plan for an arterial road network will be a road improvement plan focused on realignment, upgrading, rehabilitation, strengthening, and maintenance associated with some strategically important new road development projects, it also includes the nautical highway concept, which is an energy-saving maritime transport effectively incorporated into the road network, considering the long winding coastlines and its traditionally high modal share.
12.6.2 Formulation of Environmental Impact Matrix
Unlike the normal project-level EIA, an environmental impact matrix under the SEA is designed to roughly grasp the environmental impacts deriving from each alternative option. The benchmarks and weights for the environmental impact matrix under the SEA are streamlined below. The benchmarks include the global environmental items as well as local environmental items. Higher priorities are given to greenhouse effects, increases in energy consumption and impacts on air quality and on biodiversity.
Table 12.6.1 Benchmarks and Weights for Environmental Impact Matrix Benchmarks Weight 1. Global Environmental Items 1-1 Greenhouse Effect 15% 1-2 Energy Consumption 15% 2. Local Environmental Items 2-1 Impacts on Air Quality 15% 2-2 Impacts on Noise and Vibration 5% 2-3 Impacts on Biodiversity 15% 2-4 Improvement of BHN and Poverty Reduction 10% 2-5 Impacts on Isolated Ethnics 10% 2-6 Scale of Involuntary Resettlement 10% 2-7 Impacts on Exploitation of Mineral Resources 5%
12-33
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
12.6.3 Identification of Major Environmental Impacts
The following are the major environmental impacts resulting from the improvement of the road network:
(1) Air Pollution
The Study Team proposes the mathematical method estimating the exhaust coefficient in total NOx volume of the overall road network. The effect of the proposed road network improvement (road improvement, some realignments and so on) is evaluated by comparing the NOx volume of the alternative options. By implementing the proposed road network improvement (road improvement etc.), the increase in average speeds (10 km/h up) is estimated along with the expected reduction of NOx volume (14 %). In addition to these is the expected reduction of air pollution since bio diesel fuels (BDF) and bio-ethanol will be used for construction machines, trucks and other vehicles.
(2) Noise and Vibration
The Study Team proposes the multi regression analysis for the traffic volume, vehicle composition ratios, urbanization levels, and road grades in each survey point. Data applied in the multi regression analysis was the result of an on-site noise survey in the Mamminasata area.
In the results around Manado, Palu, Makassar and Kendari City where traffic will be concentrated, it is assumed that peak noise levels will exceed 70 dB(A) environmental standard especially in and around commercial areas. It is assumed that traffic density will increase in the future, thus the necessity for countermeasures especially for sensitive receptors such as hospitals and schools.
(3) Biodiversity
If some unique species and/or other rare species are encountered during the construction phase of the road network improvement, it will be necessary to take the proper measures for such species of fauna and flora. Such measure will include proposing limited protection zones, transfer to other areas etc. For example, the Lore Lindu National Park and the Morowali Nature Reserve are conservation areas. The Lore Lindu National Park has a 2,290 km² area which covers both lowlands and mountain forests with an altitude range of 200 – 2,610m. On the other hand, located on the eastern arm of the Central Sulawesi, Morowali Nature Reserve is a 225,000ha protected area of almost intact primary forests. The Master Plan is designed not to affect these “conservation areas” in the region.
12-34
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
LEGEND : Capital of Province Other City State Border Provincial Border Regency Border Road Lake Water Border and River Protected Forest Natural Sanctuary Park and Land Conservation Natural Sanctuary Park and Water Conservation Limited Productive Forest Conversion Productive Forest Special Function Forest Production Forest Other Purpose Area
National Road Provincial Road Upgrade to Provincial Road
Figure 12.6.1 Conservation Areas and Road Network
(4) Forest and Livelihood of Indigenous Minorities
There are 40 to 50 indigenous ethnic minorities in Sulawesi Island, including the mountainous areas of Central and Eastern Sulawesi. The ”Wana” tribe is one of typical indigenous ethnic minorities. The Morowali Nature Reserve, which was established in 1980 by the Indonesian government and encompasses 225,000 hectares of upland and coastal areas is part of the cultural minorities’ area. The “Wana” inhabits the northeastern and eastern portions of the reserve. The rest of the Morowali is uninhabited except for a small number of “Wana” settlements to the west, and a number of fishing villages along its coastal shores to the south. Vegetation includes mangroves and lowland alluvial plain forests along its southern coastlines, lowland and in the rain forests in the higher elevations where the “Wana” have adapted an upland rainforest habitat. The “Wana” obtains most of their diet from slash and burn horticulture. Other isolated ethnic minorities also cut trees for food and income. However, there are also a number of ethnic minorities who practice environmental conservation and do not practice slash and burn techniques.
There is a probability that the road network improvement under the Master Plan might will affect
12-35
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
local inhabitants’ traditional livelihoods usch as the cutting of rattan. The areas that will be affected by the improvement of the road network under the Master Plan is estimated at 82 ha alongside the planned road network. This estimated area also leads to the significant reduction in carbon stock due to the following process:
z According to recent research, the reduction of forest areas per ha will result in: a) the reduction of carbon stock by approximately 58 ton per annum; and b) the carbon release by approximately 580 ton at the time the trees where cut.
z However, since there are no exact data on carbon stock, it is very difficult to accurately calculate the reduced amount of carbon stock per annum.
z Based on the above estimation of the reduction of carbon stock per ha, the reduction of the forest area will result in the reduction of carbon stock approximating 4,756 tons per annum. (82 ha x 58 ton per ha per annum)
Table 12.6.2 Results of the Estimates of the Affected Forest Areas
Road passing in Forestry Average Average Road Estimated Area of forest CategoryLength by Topography (km)* Total Length (Road Length in Hilly Existing Widening Width to be affected by road Area x estimated ratio in Road Width by 2024** improvement in 2024 Flat Rolling Hilly (km) % km (m) (m) (m2) (Ha) a b c =a x b d e = c x d National 5,322 915 853 7,091 20% 171 5 2 341,382 34 75% 13% 12% 100% Provincial 3,072 833 1,072 4,977 30% 322 4.5 1.5 482,580 48 62% 17% 22% 100% Total 8,394 1,748 1,926 12,068 492 823,962 82 70% 14% 16% 100% Notes: * Classification of topography is for the road design. ** Average road widening includes some road realignments.
(5) Assessment improvement of the BHN/Poverty Reduction and Road Network
The improvement of the road network is aimed at achieving a multi-growth poles development in the Island instead of single growth pole for Makassar through the strengthening of economic linkages between adjacent provinces. In addition to this function, the improved road network will also contribute to rural–urban and inter-urban transport, thereby improving accessibility to important facilities and markets from the farming communities. The improvement of the road network that connects to the secondary roads through an all-season network of roads supports a full range of access to basic human needs.
(6) Horticulture Development in Coastal Zones and the Road Network
In the coastal zones of the Sulawesi Island, there are many shrimp horticulture ponds which where created through the cutting of mangrove trees. In South Sulawesi Province, there are also shrimp horticulture ponds which where converted from paddy fields. Since shrimp horticulture ponds become unproductive after a couple of production cycles, the creation of new ponds has
12-36
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
become a continuous necessity for local shrimp farmers. As a result, horticulture activities tend to expand. The improvement of the road network might further activate shrimp horticulture, especially in the western coastal zone of Sulawesi Island.
(7) Exploitation of Mineral Resources and Road Network
There is a wide range of undeveloped mineral resources in Sulawesi Island. These mineral resources include gold, silver, nickel, zinc, lead, etc. There is plenty of nickel ore within iron deposits in the central part of Sulawesi. For example, nickel production in Soroako is one of the largest laterite nickel mining operations in the entire world. At present, there are two companies conducting nickel mining in Indonesia, the state-owned PT AnekaTambang and PT Inco. PT Inco has constructed several facilities including: (a) Refineries (b) Two hydroelectric power plants (c) A port along the Malili River, which empties into the Gulf of Bone (d) A natural gas and oil terminal in Tanjung Mankasa, and pipelines 50 km. long to deliver oil to the smelters in Soroako. (e) A road connecting the smelters in Soroako with the port in Malili. (f) Complete urban living facilities, including housing, a hospital, an airfield, a bus terminal, a market, office space and a golf course.
In the long-term, it is likely that road network improvement will make it easier for foreign investors to develop the mining potential in the region.
(8) Road Network and Palm Plantation
Palm oil production is booming in developing countries because oil palm is relatively cheap to grow and produces yields up to five times those of other oil crops. Indonesia is second only to Malaysia in the production of palm oil. The industry is dominated by three classes of producers: state-owned, smallholder, and large-scale private producers. Plots of land are prepared by private developers and transferred to small farmers. These private developers supervise smallholder operations and purchased their crops. Companies were given a range of incentives, including access to credit at concessionary rates for estate development, planting, and processing.
Since palm oil is required to be processed immediately after harvesting, it is necessary to shorten production time from harvesting to extraction. Therefore, active palm oil productions can be linked to road development for the smooth delivery of palm products to factories. The improvement of the road network will accelerate palm tree plantation and production activities.
(9) Socio-economic Impacts on Isolated Cultures
The Master Plan is required to harmonize the so-called “isolated culture” in the region so as not to hamper the culture of local indigenous ethnic communities. Most of the inhabitants of Sulawesi are identified to a particular ethnic group. The term of “isolated people” is associated with the
12-37
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
indigenous ethnic communities. According to the definition by the Social Minister’s Decree, No.5 of 1994, “isolated people” is referred to as the groups of people who live or are nomadic in geographically remote and isolated areas and are socially and culturally alienated and/or still underdeveloped compared to other Indonesian communities in general. Some of those ethnic groups are socially and economically isolated, and it is likely that these isolated communities are affected by the influx of modernization and other technologies, goods and products which might convert traditional systems and ways of life, if new road developments are not carefully designed to avoid these impacts. For example, the indigenous Wana people live throughout the Molowari Reserve and consist of about 600 household families who follow a traditional lifestyle.
Figure 12.6.2 Major Ethnic Areas
If these isolated communities are willing to benefit from the improved road access associated with the construction of feeder roads in addition to the improvement of the road network, a wide range of benefits will be delivered to those isolated communities. Even if this does not happen, the road network improvement of the Master Plan will not basically affect the isolated communities, since the road network is carefully designed so as not to affect the indigenous local communities.
12.6.4 Results of the Environmental Impact Matrix
The environmental impact matrix under the SEA through each road development package is shown in Annex 12.1 to 12.3, implying that the environmental impacts on roads along major cities are relatively more serious than in other rural areas. This is due to the large traffic volume
12-38
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
on roads along major cities.
12.6.5 Results of the Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA)
The scope of the SEA is not limited to environmental effects alone. The SEA provides a number of potential links with the socio-economic assessments, thereby recognizing the idea of the SEA’s interrelationships with socio-economic issues or sustainability concerns. The so-called multi-criteria analysis (MCA), which is a typical evaluation method that judges priorities under different development alternatives, was employed as a key methodology for the overall SEA assessment. Since a wide range of positive effects and negative impacts are included in the evaluation criteria in the MCA, the methodology allows evaluators to utilize more practical evaluation procedures. The MCA provides a comprehensive evaluation matrix with different weights for each evaluation item, thereby aiding in the selection of alternatives. More concretely, the MCA has been conducted through the following steps: (1) Selection and streamlining of evaluation items, (2) Fixing evaluation indices and rating evaluation scores based on the 5-grade scoring system, (3) Calculating weights and total evaluation scores, and (4) Formulation of an MCA matrix.
The original MCA table has been slightly modified to simplify evaluation benchmarks. Higher priorities are given to the engineering items in the primary level, while higher priorities are given to the global and local environmental factors at the combined weight levels.
Table 12.6.3 Benchmarks and Weights of the Multi-criteria Analysis Combined Evaluation Benchmarks Weight Weight 1. Engineering Items 1-1 Consistency to Upper-level Plan 25% 10% 1-2 Balance and Efficiency of Road Network 40% 25% 10% 1-5 Responsiveness to Traffic Demand 50% 20% 2. Economic and Financial Items 2-1 Scale of Beneficiaries 25% 7.5% 2-2 Investment Efficiency 25% 7.5% 2-3 Contribution to Production and Investment 30% 25% 7.5% 2-4 Improvement of Access to Public Infrastructures 25% 7.5% 3. Environmental Items 3-1 Global Environmental Factors 50% 15% 3-2 Local Environmental Factors 30% 50% 15%
12.6.6 Conclusion of Multi-criteria Analysis
As shown in the Annex 12.4 to 12.6, “Option 3” obtained the highest scores among the three alternative options. In conclusion, “Option 3” was selected as the best solution. The detailed explanation for the conclusion is shown below:
z “Option 1” (Zero Option): “Option 1 (Zero Option)” just aims to maintain the existing road network without any new investment and will not significantly increase the responsiveness to the traffic volume, while negative impacts on the global and local environment in the region would be limited. At the same time, “Option 1” will not significantly contribute to
12-39
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
production and investment in the region due to its capacity to respond to the increasing traffic demand.
z “Option 2” (Road Network Improvement Only): Since “Option 2” focuses on realignment, upgrading, rehabilitation, strengthening, and maintenance associated with some strategically important new projects without the improvement of accessibility through marine transport, the traffic volume on the road network in the region would be the largest among all the options. Because of this, the negative impacts on the global and local environment would be relatively larger than “Option 3”. The degree of the reduction in energy consumption and emission per traffic volume is relatively higher than “Option 3”.
z Road Network plus Marine Transport Improvement: Since “Option 3” focuses on realignment, upgrading, rehabilitation, strengthening, and maintenance associated with some strategically important new projects together with the improvement of accessibility thorugh marine transport which is more environmentally friendly than the road network development, the traffic volume on the road network in the region would be relatively smaller than “Option 2.” Therefore, negative impacts on the global and local environment would be relatively smaller than “Option 2”. Since “Option 3” is a road improvement plan together with the concept of a nautical highway which is the improvement of accessibility through marine transport, the degree of the reduction in energy consumption and emission per traffic volume is relatively lower than “Option 2”. The evaluation on other benchmarks remains almost the same as that of “Option 2”.
12-40
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Minieral Resources Exploitation of Exploitation 25 24 34 24 44 44 42 44 43 23 23 44 44 44 43 42 42 43 43 Scale of Scale Uinvoluntary Resettlement Ethnic Minorities Impacts on Impacts ve Impacts) Regional Reduction BHN/Poverty Improvement of 521 331 431 431 343 342 232 342 232 233 233 233 233 344 344 433 244 233 233 Biodiveristy Environmental Factors n Noise/Vibratio 34 24 34 44 44 55 55 55 44 44 55 55 55 55 44 42 55 55 23 Air Quality Energy Consumption of Consumption Negative Impacts → 5: Largest Positive Impacts/Smallest Negati 3.58 3.58 4.16 4.32 2.79 3.26 2.53 3.42 3.42 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.05 Gas Effect Gas Global Environmental Factors Environmental Global Factors Environmental Local Green House allest Positive Impacts/Largest Evaluation Evaluation Weight TS-1-2- Mamuju Parepare TS-1-3Palu - Mamuju TS-1-4 Maros - BajoeTS-1-5- Palopo Parepare TS-1-6Kaluku - Wonomulyo TS-2-1- Kwandang Palu 3TS-2-2Bitung - - Manado Kwandang TS-2-3- Worotican Molibagu 3TS-3-1 Jenoponto - Watampone - WotuTS-3-2 3 4 3 Toboli - Poso - Wotu 4 4TS-4-1 Gorontalo- Toboli TS-4-2 3 3 4 Bitung - Gorontalo TS-5-1 3 4 4Kolaka - Wotu 4 4 TS-5-2 Kendari- Tinaggea - Kolaka TS-5-3 3 3 4 Kendari Tondoyondo - TS-5-4LuwukPoso- - Tondoyondo 4 TS-5-5 4Kendari - Kolaka 4TS-5-6 4Tolala - Landawe 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 TS-1-1 Jeneponto - Makassar - Parepare 2 2 TS-1 TS-2 TS-3 TS-4 TS-5
Road
Road Road ANNEX 9.1 (1: Sm 5-grade Scores Average ANNEX 12.1 12-41
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
6 8 8 .04 .84 .05 Average 1.17 1.06 Minieral Resources Exploitation of 7 1.17 1.11 17 1.17 1.20 .58 0.58 0.84 Scale of Scale Uinvoluntary Resettlement 40 0.58 0.58 0.70 Ethnic Minorities Impacts on Reduction of Regional of Improvement BHN/Poverty Local Environmental Factors Environmental Local Biodiveristy Environmental Factors Environmental on Noise/Vibrati AirQuality of Energy of Consumption 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.05 GasEffect Green House Global Environmental Factors Environmental Global Evaluation Item Evaluation Weight TS-2-3Worotican - Molibagu 1.12 1.12 1.20 1.16 0.72 0.92 0.79 1.17 1.17 1 TS-2-1- Kwandang Palu TS-2-2- Bitung Manado Kwandang - TS-3-1- Wotu - Watampone Jenoponto TS-3-2 1.12Toboli - Poso - Wotu TS-4-1- Gorontalo Toboli 0.84 1.12TS-4-2 1.12Bitung - Gorontalo TS-5-1Kolaka - Wotu 0.84TS-5-2 1.12 KendariTinaggea - - Kolaka 1.20TS-5-3 0.84- Tondoyondo Kendari TS-5-4 0.96 1.20LuwukPoso - - Tondoyondo 1.12 1.16TS-5-5 0.84 1.12 1.12Kendari - Kolaka TS-5-6 0.93- Tolala Landawe 1.16 1.12 1.08 1.12 0.96 1.12 1.12 0.84 1.12 0.72 0.72 1.20 1.23 1.12 0.93 1.12 1.20 0.84 1.20 1.12 0.92 0.92 1.16 0.79 1.12 0.96 0.72 1.20 1.16 0.96 1.16 1.12 1.19 0.79 0.72 1.1 1.12 0.46 0.92 1.16 1.08 0.93 0.72 1.20 0 1.17 0.92 1.20 0.72 1.19 1.08 1.23 1.43 0.92 1.16 1.17 1.19 1.16 1.23 0.58 1.23 1.58 0.92 1.19 0.72 1.04 1.17 0.72 1.58 0.58 1.58 1. 1.19 1.17 0.92 1.17 0.92 1.17 0 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.19 1.0 1.19 1.17 1.17 1.0 1.17 1.17 1.20 1 1.17 1.17 1.08 1.08 TS-1-1Parepare - - Makassar Jeneponto TS-1-2 Mamuju- Parepare TS-1-3 0.56 Palu Mamuju - TS-1-4- Bajoe Maros TS-1-5 0.56 Palopo- Parepare TS-1-6 Kaluku - Wonomulyo 0.84 0.48 0.84 0.84 0.70 0.84 1.12 1.12 0.84 0.72 1.79 0.84 1.12 1.12 0.48 0.93 0.61 0.72 0.96 0.96 0.93 1.08 0. 0.93 0.93 0.93 1.43 0.92 1.43 1.08 1.08 0.92 0.40 0.92 1.23 1.23 0.40 0.58 0.40 1.19 0.79 0.88 0.58 0.58 1.17 1.17 0.88 0.76 0.58 1.17 1.17 0.84 0.80 1.11 1.0
TS-2 TS-3 TS-4 TS-5 TS-1
Road Road ANNEX 9.2 Indicator (Score/AverageScore: Average Score = 100) Average
12-42
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
6 7 7 .03 .85 .04 Overall Weights Scoreswith 0.06 1.07 of Minieral of Resources Exploitation 20.061.11 12 0.06 1.19 .06 0.03 0.85 Scaleof Uinvoluntary Resettlement 04 0.06 0.03 0.73 Ethnic Minorities Impacts on Reduction of Regional Improvement BHN/Poverty Biodiveristy Environmental Environmental Factors on Noise/Vibrati Air Quality Air of Energy of Consumption 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.05 1.00 Gas Effect Green House Global Environmental FactorsGlobal LocalEnvironmentalFactors Evaluation Items 評価項目 Weight TS-2-3Molibagu - Worotican0.170.170.180.060.110.090.080.120.061 - TS-2-3Molibagu S12aeae-Mmj 0.130.130.110.050.160.090.040.060.030.79 0.170.170.140.050.160.120.120.120.061.10 Mamuju 0.170.170.180.060.110.090.120.120.061.0 0.170.170.180.060.110.090.080.120.061.03 0.130.130.070.050.220.090.040.090.040.85 Palopo - Palu - Bitung - - Kwandang - TS-1-2Parepare TS-1-3Mamuju TS-1-4 Maros -Bajoe TS-1-5Parepare TS-1-6 Wonomulyo - KalukuTS-2-1Palu TS-2-2 Kwandang - Manado -Bitung TS-3-1 0.13 Jenoponto - Watampone -Wotu TS-3-2 0.17 0.17 Toboli- Poso - Wotu TS-4-1 Toboli- Gorontalo 0.13 0.13TS-4-2Gorontalo 0.17 0.17TS-5-1 Wotu -Kolaka 0.13 0.11TS-5-2 Kolaka - Tinaggea - Kendari 0.18 0.14TS-5-3 0.13 Kendari- TondoyondoTS-5-4 0.14 0.05 0.17 Tondoyondo - Luwuk -Poso 0.06 0.05TS-5-5 0.13 0.17 Kolaka - KendariTS-5-6 0.05 0.22 Landawe -Tolala 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.18 0.12 0.12 0.05 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.13 0.09 0.04 0.17 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.14 0.17 0.18 0.06 0.14 0.12 0.06 0.17 0.11 0.1 0.12 0.09 0.02 0.17 0.06 0.16 0.05 0 0.03 0.18 0.09 0.06 0.12 0.11 0.18 0.16 0.12 0.22 0.84 0.06 0.12 1.0 0.06 0.12 0.06 0.12 0.16 0.09 0.11 0.12 0.03 0.16 0.11 0.16 0. 0.12 0.09 0.06 0 0.12 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.12 1.0 0.12 0.06 0.06 0.12 0.12 1.19 1 0.06 0.06 1.07 1.07 TS-1-1 Jeneponto - Makassar - Parepare 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.03 0.27 0.06 0.
TS-1 TS-2 TS-3 TS-4 TS-5
路線 Road Road ANNEX 12.3 ANNEX 12.3 ANNEX 9.3 Overall Scores with Weights with Overall Scores ANNEX 9.3 Average
12-43
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Average 3 on i pt O (Road Network + + Network (Road FerryImprovement) Option 2 Option Alternatives (Road Network Only)Network (Road 2.33 3.11 3.78 3.07 Option 1 Option (Zero Option) (Zero Total Weight Total 0.50 0.25 0.200.25 0.080.25 2 0.080.25 1 0.080.50 2 0.08 30.50 1 0.15 3 1 0.15 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3.00 2 5 2.67 3 5 2.67 3 3.33 2 3.33 3.00 3.00 0.250.25 0.10 0.10 3 3 3 3 4 4 3.33 3.33 Weight Weight Secondary Secondary 0.30 0.30 0.40 PrimaryW eight 5: Highest) Highest) 5: levelPlan lternative A grade Scores (1: Lowest → Lowest (1: Scores grade 2 Balanceand E R of fficiency oadNetwork 3Demand ResponsivenessTraffic to 1 ScaleBeneficiariesof 2 InvestmentEfficiency 3 Contributionto 4 ImprovementAccessPublic of to Infrastructure 1 GlobalEnvironmental Items 2Items Environmental Local 1Upper- for Consistency
1- 1- 2- 2- 2- 2- 3- 3- 1-
Items
Engineering Items Engineering Items Financial and Economic
Evaluation Item Environmental Environmental A N N E X 12.4 5- Total
12-44
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
3 on i pt O (Road Network + + Network (Road FerryImprovement) Option 2 Option Alternatives (Road Network Only)Network (Road 0.76 1.01 1.23 Option 1 Option (Zero Option) (Zero Total Weight Total 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.08 0.67 0.25 0.08 0.38 0.25 0.08 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.08 1.13 0.30 0.50 0.15 1.33 1.13 0.30 0.15 1.50 1.20 1.33 1.13 1.20 1.33 1.50 0.67 1.50 1.00 1.00 0.67 0.250.25 0.10 0.10 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 1.20 1.20 Weight Weight Secondary Secondary 0.30 0.30 0.40 Primary Weight Primary levelPlan Average Score, Average Score = 100) = AverageAverageScoreScore, lternative A 1Scale of Beneficiaries 2 Balanceand E R of fficiency oadNetwork of 3Demand ResponsivenessTraffic to 1Scale 2 InvestmentEfficiency 3 Contributionto Infrastructure Public to Access 4of Improvement 1 G lobalE nvironmentalItems Items 2Environmental Local 1Upper- Consistencyfor
1- 1- 2- 2- 2- 2- 3- 3- 1-
Items
Engineering Items Engineering Items Financial and conomic E
Evaluation Item Environmental Environmental ANNEIndicator X(Score/ 12.5 Total
12-45
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
3 on i pt O (Road Network + + Network (Road FerryImprovement) Option 2 Option Alternatives (Road Network Only)Network (Road 0.843 0.979 1.179 Option 1 Option (Zero Option) (Zero Total Weight Total 0.50 0.25 0.200.25 0.08 0.1330.25 0.08 0.0280.25 0.08 0.200 0.0560.50 0.08 0.084 0.0230.50 0.15 0.267 0.084 0.023 0.15 0.113 0.090 0.200 0.084 0.090 0.200 0.113 0.100 0.113 0.150 0.150 0.100 0.250.25 0.10 0.10 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.090 0.120 0.120 Weight Weight Secondary Secondary 0.30 0.30 0.40 PrimaryW eight levelPlan lternative A 2 Balance and E fficiency of R oad N etwork 3Demand ResponsivenessTraffic to 1 ScaleBeneficiaries of 2Efficiency Investment 3 Contributionto Infrastructure Public to Access of 4 Improvement 1 GlobalEnvironmental Items 2 Local E nvironm ental Item s 1Upper- Consistencyfor
1- 1- 2- 2- 2- 2- 3- 3- 1-
Items
Engineering Items Engineering s Item inancial F and ic conom E
Evaluation Item Environmental Environmental A N N E X 12.6 O verall S cores with W eights Total
12-46
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
12.6.7 Formulation of Mitigation Measures
The SEA should include measures to mitigate negative environmental impacts. The term “mitigation” refers to the elimination, reduction or control of negative environmental impacts which might be derived from the implementation of the Master Plan.
The protection of forests is central issue in the road network development since they are important to the economic well being and livelihood of the indigenous societies who live in or around them. In addition, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through the reduction of energy consumption is also critical. Frequently discussed energy conservation methods include increasing the fuel efficiency of vehicles by improving the average travel speed. Other suggested indictors and/or mitigation measures against global warming include the CO2 volume of total road network in Sulawesi Island, the coverage and the promotion of bio-fuels in the areas affected by the project (road improvement etc.), as well as the diversion of other traffic measurements.
(1) CO2 Reduction through Traffic Efficiency
The Study Team proposes the mathematical method estimated by the exhaust coefficient in total CO2 volumes of the total road network. The exhaust coefficient of the average speeds of small and large vehicles is shown in Table 12.6.4. The flow of mathematical method for CO2 volume prediction is shown in Figure 12.6.3.
Table 12.6.4 Exhaust Coefficients by Vehicle Type (CO2)
average speed p1 p2 (km/h) 10 99 237 20 67 182 30 54 155 40 46 137 50 42 127 60 40 122 70 39 123 80 40 129 CO2 volume = ( A1 x p1 + A2 x p2 ) x Q
A1 : Small Vehicles Volume (vehicles/day) A2 : Large Vehicles Volume (vehicles/day) Q : Traffic Volume (vehicles/day)
The effect of the project (road improvement, some new road networks and so on) was evaluated by comparing the CO2 volume of both cases (with and without-project). In case of the “with-project” case the increase in average speeds as a result of road improvements, such as widening, alignment, pavement and so on, is expected.
12-47
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
In the “without-project” case where road improvements are not implement traffic volume will merely increase year after year according to the traffic demand. It is surmised that the average speed of all road networks in the “without-project” case by 2024 is similar to present conditions in 2007.
The average speed of road network in the “without-project” case is calculated at 25.4 km/h, in the “with-project” case it is 35.4 km/h.
Operating vehicles volume in the road network is shown in Table 12.6.5. The total number by 2024 in the “without-project” case is about 2.2 times compared with that for 2007. The number of car/taxi is about 3.5 times.
Table 12.6.5 Volume Results of Operating Vehicles (Vehicles x km)
unit : vehicles・km Motorcycle Car/Taxi Mini Bus Large Bus Pickup Small Truck Large Truck Total 2007 6,487,144 1,716,814 4,547,178 788,478 1,297,655 2,208,865 308,679 17,354,813 2024without 15,138,685 5,944,999 7,723,995 1,642,161 2,780,173 4,695,661 652,007 38,577,681 2024 with 14,699,166 5,657,593 7,373,247 1,595,602 2,678,221 4,520,979 633,651 37,158,458 2024without/2007 233.4% 346.3% 169.9% 208.3% 214.2% 212.6% 211.2% 222.3% 2024 with / 2007 226.6% 329.5% 162.1% 202.4% 206.4% 204.7% 205.3% 214.1%
Present Condition *Traffic volume *Road Network
Future Condition *Traffic volume small & large vehicle *Road Network Setting of exhaust coefficient by vehicles and average speed ( p1& p2 ) *fixed in target year Prediction of CO2 volume CO2 vplume = ((small vehicles volume)*p1 +(large vehicles volume)*p2) *daily traffic volume
Reduction measurements *Diversion to other transport system ( ferry, train etc. ) *BF(bio-fuel) ( ethanol and BDF )
Evaluation of Global Warming *Reduction effect for CO2 volume (with project and without project)
Figure 12.6.3 Prediction Flow of CO2 Volumes
12-48
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
The increase in average speeds (10 km/h upwards) is expected in the implementation of the project (road improvement etc.). At the same time reduction of CO2 volumes (21.1%) is likewise expected. Results of the forecast in CO2 volumes is shown in Table 12.6.5.
The CO2 volume is expected to decrease twice other than in 2007, notwithstanding the operating vehicle volume increases of over 2.1 times in the 2024 “with-project” case.
Table 12.6.6 Estimation Results in CO2 Volumes 2007 2024 2024 present without with CO2 (g-CO2/km/day) 89,342.7 225,316.2 177,662.1 2024/2007 - 252.2% 198.9% with/without - - 78.9%
In this way, the reduction of the forest area associated with the road network improvement projects under the MP is estimated at 82 ha. In general, there are a couple of trial calculations as below.
1) The annual reduction amount of the absorption of CO2 per ha is estimated 58 ton.
2) The increased amount of CO2 at the time of cutting trees is estimated at 580 ton per ha.
In accordance with these general trial calculations, there is a possibility that the reduction of CO2 absorption might further increase.
The improvement of the road network in Sulawesi Island will contribute to the so-called “the concept of the“Carbon Neutral” through the reduction of CO2 associated with the improvement of the average travel speed of vehicles. This positive effect derived from the improvement of the average travel speed of the vehicles will also contribute to the reduction of other emissions such as NOx.
Meanwhile, in Indonesia, there are many vehicles which are not compliance with the current standard stipulated by the inspection regulation and system. Special considerations should be given to this matter, since this might harm the positive effects generated from the improvement of the average travel speed of the vehicles and the promotion of the usage of bio-fuel gas.
(2) Promotion of Bio-fuel Usage
In March 2006, the Indonesian government recognized the mixing of 10% bio diesel fuel (BDF) into diesel oil and 10% bio-ethanol into gasoline. The promotion of bio-fuel as an alternative energy source was advanced through regulatory relaxation with the aim the share of the bio-fuel share 3% of all energy sources by 2010 and 20% by 2025.
If all goes well the Government politics in energy goes smoothly, the 20% reduction of CO2 will be expected in 2024.
12-49
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
BDF is the byproduct of the chemical reduction of palm oil, jatropha and/or used oil. The merits of of its use are the following: • Redcues SO2, NO2, SPM, Pb. • Ensures high safety and the simple usage. • Potentially mixes with normal diesel fuel.
On the other hand, the demerits of BDF use include its relatively higher prices compared with normal diesel fuel (about 1.5~2 times) and the difficulty in its sourcing due to the present limitation of its distribution network.
Bio-ethanol is produced by fermentation and distillation of sugar cane, corn and some grasses. The merits of bio-ethanol are the folowing: • No CO2 in exhausts. • Recyclable energy from vegetable. • Ensures high efficiency of thermal energy. • Potentially mixes with normal gasoline.
The demerits of bio-ethanol are similar to those of the BDF.
(3) Reforestation
The targets of proposed road improvement project by 2024 are the national and provincial roads. There is no perfect new road construction, and most programs merely consists road widening and betterment. The mountainous sections of the target roads amount to about 16%. The Study Team surmises that the national road that passes through forested areas is about 20% of them while for provincial road it is about 30%.
Countermeasures on forest reduction are proposed including reforestation in public and/or private areas, and roadside greening during project implementation.
As green planting programs are conducted along the roads, they will create new environmental awareness among passengers and road users who will appreciate the environmental beauty and comfort of their travel along the road network including the residents along the system. The planting of trees will be effective in absorbing CO2 and producing O2 and in case fruit bearing trees they will help in the supply of food for residents.
12-50
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 12.6.7 Samples of Recommended Tree Species for Tree Planting
Specific Purpose Scientific Name Local Name Agathis Alba Damar CO2 absorber and Leucena leucocephala Lamtoro gung O2 producer Acasia auriculiformis Akasia Artocarpus integra Nangka Food producer Artocarpus heterophylla Sukun Anacardium occidentale Jambu Mente Paraserianthes falcataria Sengon Swietenia macrophylla Mahoni Wood materials Tectona grandis Jati super Tamarindus indica Asam Jawa
These environmental countermeasures, although not directly involved in the project, will be very fruitful for the environment and the surrounding inahabitants of the areas along the road system. By encouraging the green plantation, environmental conditions in the surrounding areas will be improved.
An environmental adoption program when incorporated with the maintenance and management system of the roadside greening, will be of great help to the overall program. This system will contract to the village communities the planting and maintenance of the roadside trees, and in turn the village community gets the right to harvest and sell the fruits. Government agencies will supply the seedlings of the fruits trees,
Figure 12.6.4 Proposed Adoption System
12-51
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Under the current agreements in the Kyoto Protocol and the Marrakech Accords, possibilities under the protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) are limited to afforestation and reforestation, known as AR CDM. In other words, they allow the planting of new trees to establish additional links, but they do not allow crediting for the reduction of emissions from existing sinks through sustainable forest management. To date almost 1000 CDM projects are currently being conducted or have undergone the approval process, but almost all of these are in the energy sector. This is due to the fact that applications for large-scale AR CDMs are quite complicated, and the simplified CDM was approved in COP 9. By using this simplified mechanism for the CDM, small-scale and community-based CDM projects are recommended for reforestation.
(4) Diversion of Traffic System
The reduction measurement of CO2 is proposed through the diversion of other traffic systems such as the ferry and the train. However, potentials for the train system is fairly low considering its cost-benefit performance and so on. On the other hand, although ferry services has an effective CO2 reduction the demand for ferry transportation is presently still low. If the demand for ferry transportation in the proposed nautical highway increases in the future, suitable effects in CO2 reductions will be expected.
It has also beeon considered that components that passes through nature reserves and/or national parks will be more effective when diverted to the ferry system. As an example, the road improvement that passes through the Morowali Nature Reserve in Central Sulawesi, will be more practical when diverted to the ferry serviceI so as to help contribute to the conservation of the area’s wildlife and biodiversity.
12-52
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Proposed Ferry Diversion
Figure 12.6.5 Proposed Ferry Diversion in the Morowali Area
12.7 Conclusion and Recommendations
Since “Option 3” focuses on realignment, upgrading, rehabilitation, strengthening, and maintenance associated with some strategically important new projects, together with the improvement of accessibility through marine transport, which is more environmentally friendly than road network development, the traffic volume on the road network in the region would be relatively smaller than “Option 2.” Therefore, negative impacts on the global and local environment would be relatively smaller than “Option 2”. Since “Option 3” is a road improvement plan which has a nautical highway component the degree of the reduction in energy consumption and emission per traffic volume is relatively lower than “Option 2”. Several mitigation measures such as the promotion of bio-fuels and reforestation are recommended to mitigate the negative impacts of the Master Plan.
12-53
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
CHAPTER 13 IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAM
13.1 General
Sulawesi Road Master Plan is formulated at the target year 2024. The implementation program of the Master Plan is composed of the following terms: - Short-term plan (7 years: 2008 - 2014) - Medium-term plan (5 years: 2015 – 2019) - Long-term plan (5 years: 2015 – 2024) In order to establish a realistic and effective implementation program, the Study Team adopted the following conditions for the implementation program of the Master Plan as follows:
(1) Implementation plan focused on the development programs
Improvement plans in the Master Plan are divided into the following programs:
Development program: New construction and betterment (reconstruction and widening). Maintenance program: Periodic maintenance and routine maintenance.
Since the target of the Master Plan is to upgrade the original function or strengthen the capacity of the existing road network, its implementation programs is mainly focused on the development programs.
(2) Support for the implementation of existing high priority development programs
The Master Plan should support the realization of existing development programs, especially the “Northeastern Indonesia Regional Development Program” that has been developed through the cooperation of both the Indonesian and Japanese governments.
The road development plans as recommended in the development program should be included in this implementation program. The Study team recommends the implementation of “Trans-Sulawesi Mamminasata Road (Maros-Takalar) since the project was confirmed to be economically feasible with a high economic internal rate of return and the Environmental Impact Assessment was already completed in accordance with the JBIC guidelines and Indonesian AMDAL laws.
(3) Early implementation of poor bridge rehabilitation
Although the existing roads and bridges were improved and rehabilitated in the past various bridges still remain narrow and in poor condition. The reconstruction of these bridges is part of the road betterment work in the Master Plan. However, in some sections the betterment of these roads are part of the medium-term and long-term plans.
Because the collapse of a bridge on a major road will have an adverse impact on local socio-economic activities, it is recommended that bridges identified as Grade III “Poor”, Grade IV “Bad” and Grade V ”Impassable” (including wooden bridges) should be improved as soon as
13-1
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
possible and their implementation be placed under the “Urgent Bridge Repair Program”.
13.2 Project Prioritization
13.2.1 Methodology
The multi-criteria analysis (MCA) methodology was adopted in the prioritization of the 19 proposed projects. The analytical procedure is as follows: A. Selection of factors to be evaluated B. Allocation of weights to each factor C. 5-grade scoring of each factor D. Normalization of scores for each factor E. Calculation of weighted scores of each Project F. Ranking of Projects (prioritization)
(1) Selection of items to be evaluated
The following were chosen as evaluation factors: - Economic indicator (EIRR) - Accessibility to potential development areas - Influenced population by Project - Improvement of basic human needs - Negative impacts on social environment - Negative impacts on natural environment - Maturity /existing initiative
(2) Allocation of weights to each factor The following weights were allocated for each factor. They were tested by sensitivity analysis explained hereafter. - Economic indicator (EIRR): 30% - Accessibility to potential development areas: 10% - Influenced population by Project: 10% - Improvement of basic human needs: 10% - Negative impacts on social environment: 10% - Negative impacts on natural environment: 10%
Maturity/existing initiative: 20%
(3) 5-grade scoring of each factor
For each factor a 5-grade scoring was conducted based on the following criteria: - Economic indicator (EIRR) 5: 40% or above 4: 30%~40%
13-2
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
3: 20%~30% 2: 10%~20% 1: below 10% - Accessibility to potential development areas 5: linking national activity centers (PKN) included in the 1st 5-year plan 4: linking regional activity centers (PKW) included in the 1st 5-year plan 3: linking national/regional activity centers included in the 2nd 5-year plan 2: linking national/regional activity centers included in the 3rd/4th 5-year plan 1: other intercity roads - Influenced population by project In terms of 2024 projected population of all kabupatens along each project 5: 3.00 million or more 4: 2.25~2.99 million 3: 1.50~2.24 million 2: 0.75~1.49 million 1: 0.74 million or less - Improvement of basic human needs Qualitative assessment based on per capita GRDP and poverty ratio of the project areas (Please refer to Chapter 12 for details). - Negative impacts on social environment Qualitative assessment based on resettlement requirements, possible impact on minorities and required countermeasures for disaster prevention and traffic safety (Please refer to Chapter 12 for detail). - Negative impacts on natural environment Qualitative assessments from the point of view of air quality, noise, bio-diversity and greenhouse gas emissions (Please refer to Chapter 12 for details). - Maturity/existing initiatives In terms of percentage covered by committed projects by the AusAID, WB, ADB and local programs. 5: 80% or more 4: 60~79% 3: 40~59% 2: 20~39% 1: 19% or less Note that coverage was estimated per project distribution maps and were not based on accurate records.
(4) Normalization of scores for each factor
The 5-grade scoring explained above is a factor-specific independent evaluation which did not consider possible biases which may exist between other factors. Thus, initial scoring should be
13-3
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
normalized so that average scores would be similar for all factors, which is a rather mathematical process.
(5) Calculation of weighted scores for each project The final score per project was calculated using the weight allocated for each factor and the normalized index scores.
(6) Ranking of Projects (prioritization)
The proposed projects were ranked using the final score per project calculated above.
13.2.2 Prioritization of Proposed Projects
Table 13.2.1, Table 13.2.2 and Table 13.2.3 show the procedures and results of project prioritization. TS1-1 (Jeneponto – Makassar - Parepare) was ranked the highest, followed by TS3-1 (Jeneponto – Watampone – Wotu), TS1-6 (Wonomulyo – Kaluku), TS1-2 (Parepare - Mamuju) and TS1-4 (Maros – Bajoe). The peninsula-crossing roads and the arterial roads from Southeast Sulawesi to Central Sulawesi generally attained lower rankings.
Table 13.2.1 5-Grade Scoring of the Proposed Projects 5-Grade Score（1：Lowest - 5：Highest） Basic Profile Evaluation Factors Economic Factors Environmental Factors Evaluation Investment and Acceessibility Negative Negative Maturity / Total Length Width of Traffic Volume Economic Improvement Construction to Potential Number of Impacts on Impacts on Existing (km) Pavement (m) (000PCUs/day) Indicator of Basic Cost (Rp. Development Beneficiaries Social Natrural Initiative Project Road (EIRR) Human Needs Billion) Areas Environment Environment
0.30 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.20 Weight
Jeneponto - Makassar - TS-1-1 6583.0-16.93,7402-705552141 Parepare TS-1-2Parepare - Mamuju6923.8-10.21,1731-114423332
TS-1-3Mamuju - Palu 3874.4-6.01,0114-142523233 TS-1 TS-1-4Maros - Bajoe 1446.0-8.02756-94523224
TS-1-5Parepare - Palopo2904.3-7.15852-123424425
TS-1-6Wonomulyo - Kaluku2006.043215124421
TS-2-1Palu - Kwandang1,0193.4-8.41,0431-72533532
TS-2 TS-2-2Kwandang - Manado - Bitung1,3993.5-10.02,6711-382534333
TS-2-3Molibagu - Worotican1844.5-8.43932-42323524
TS-3-1Jeneponto - Watampone - Wotu1,4523.9-9.72,4311-103253445 TS-3 Link No. Link TS-3-2Wotu - Poso - Toboli1,0694.2-5.51,7771-52223421
TS-4-1Toboli - Gorontalo9734.0-7.01,8601-72333432 TS-4 TS-4-2Gorontalo - Bitung8933.5-11.01,4331-152333433
TS-5-1Wotu - Kolaka 4353.9-5.61,0531-42124344
TS-5-2Kolaka - Tinaggea - Kendari1,0604.2-17.81,0901-31324335
TS-5-3Kendari - Tondoyondo3734.3-6.03841-32323431 TS-5 TS-5-4Tondoyondo - Luwuk - Poso1,2353.5-6.01,2381-31434434
TS-5-5Kolaka - Kendari3124.5-6.74651-92423523
TS-5-6Landawe - Tolala1506.01,22111113524 Average / Total 12,926 - 24,276 - 2.47 3.32 2.53 3.26 3.63 2.79 3.00
13-4
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 13.2.2 Normalized Index Scores of the Proposed Projects
Index: Score/Average Basic Profile Evaluation Factors Evaluation Investment Economic Factors Environmental Factors Total Width of and Traffic Volume Acceessibility Negative Negative Maturity / Economic Influenced Improvement Average Length Pavement Construction (000PCUs/day to Potential Impacts on Impacts on Existing Indicator Population by of Basic (km) (m) Cost (Rp. ) Development Social Natrural Initiative Project Road (EIRR) Project Roads Human Needs Million) Areas Environment Environment
0.30 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.20 Weight
Jeneponto - Makassar - TS-1-1 658 3.0-16.9 3,740 2-70 202.13 150.79 197.92 61.29 27.54 143.40 33.33 116.63 Parepare TS-1-2 Parepare - Mamuju 692 3.8-10.2 1,173 1-11 161.70 120.63 79.17 91.94 82.61 107.55 66.67 101.47
TS-1-3 Mamuju - Palu 387 4.4-6.0 1,011 4-14 80.85 150.79 79.17 91.94 55.07 107.55 100.00 95.05 TS-1 TS-1-4 Maros - Bajoe 144 6.0-8.0 275 6-9 161.70 150.79 79.17 91.94 55.07 71.70 133.33 106.24
TS-1-5 Parepare - Palopo 290 4.3-7.1 585 2-12 121.28 120.63 79.17 122.58 110.14 71.70 166.67 113.17
TS-1-6 Wonomulyo - Kaluku 200 6.0 432 1 202.13 30.16 79.17 122.58 110.14 71.70 33.33 92.74
TS-2-1 Palu - Kwandang 1,019 3.4-8.4 1,043 1-7 80.85 150.79 118.75 91.94 137.68 107.55 66.67 107.75
TS-2 TS-2-2 Kwandang - Manado - Bitung 1,399 3.5-10.0 2,671 1-38 80.85 150.79 118.75 122.58 82.61 107.55 100.00 109.02
TS-2-3 Molibagu - Worotican 184 4.5-8.4 393 2-4 80.85 90.48 79.17 91.94 137.68 71.70 133.33 97.88
TS-3-1 Jeneponto - Watampone - Wotu 1,452 3.9-9.7 2,431 1-10 121.28 60.32 197.92 91.94 110.14 143.40 166.67 127.38
Link No. Link TS-3 TS-3-2 Wotu - Poso - Toboli 1,069 4.2-5.5 1,777 1-5 80.85 60.32 79.17 91.94 110.14 71.70 33.33 75.35
TS-4-1 Toboli - Gorontalo 973 4.0-7.0 1,860 1-7 80.85 90.48 118.75 91.94 110.14 107.55 66.67 95.20 TS-4 TS-4-2 Gorontalo - Bitung 893 3.5-11.0 1,433 1-15 80.85 90.48 118.75 91.94 110.14 107.55 100.00 99.96
TS-5-1 Wotu - Kolaka 435 3.9-5.6 1,053 1-4 80.85 30.16 79.17 122.58 82.61 143.40 133.33 96.01
TS-5-2 Kolaka - Tinaggea - Kendari 1,060 4.2-17.8 1,090 1-3 40.43 90.48 79.17 122.58 82.61 107.55 166.67 98.50
TS-5-3 Kendari - Tondoyondo 373 4.3-6.0 384 1-3 80.85 90.48 79.17 91.94 110.14 107.55 33.33 84.78 TS-5 TS-5-4 Tondoyondo - Luwuk - Poso 1,235 3.5-6.0 1,238 1-3 40.43 120.63 118.75 122.58 110.14 107.55 133.33 107.63
TS-5-5 Kolaka - Kendari 312 4.5-6.7 465 1-9 80.85 120.63 79.17 91.94 137.68 71.70 100.00 97.42 TS-5-6 Landawe - Tolala 150 6.0 1,221 1 40.43 30.16 39.58 91.94 137.68 71.70 133.33 77.83
Table 13.2.3 Final Scores and Priority of the Proposed Projects
Evaluation Matrix Basic Profile Evaluation Factors Total Investment Economic Factors Environmental Factors Evaluation Weighted Total Width of and Influenced Negative Negative Maturity / Priority Traffic Volume Economic Acceessibility to Improvement Index Length Pavement Construction Potential Population Impacts on Impacts on Existing Order (000PCUs/day) Indicator of Basic (Index x (km) (m) Cost (Rp. Development by Project Social Natrural Initiative Project Road (EIRR) Human Needs Weight) Million) Areas Roads Environment Environment
0.30 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.20 1.00 Weight
Jeneponto - Makassar - TS-1-1 658 3.0-16.9 3,740 2-70 60.64 15.08 19.79 6.13 2.75 14.34 23.33 142.06 1 Parepare TS-1-2 Parepare - Mamuju 692 3.8-10.2 1,173 1-11 48.51 12.06 7.92 9.19 8.26 10.75 20.29 116.99 4
TS-1-3 Mamuju - Palu 387 4.4-6.0 1,011 4-14 24.26 15.08 7.92 9.19 5.51 10.75 19.01 91.72 12 TS-1 TS-1-4 Maros - Bajoe 144 6.0-8.0 275 6-9 48.51 15.08 7.92 9.19 5.51 7.17 21.25 114.63 5
TS-1-5 Parepare - Palopo 290 4.3-7.1 585 2-12 36.38 12.06 7.92 12.26 11.01 7.17 22.63 109.44 6
TS-1-6 Wonomulyo - Kaluku 200 6.0 432 1 60.64 3.02 7.92 12.26 11.01 7.17 18.55 120.56 3
TS-2-1 Palu - Kwandang 1,019 3.4-8.4 1,043 1-7 24.26 15.08 11.88 9.19 13.77 10.75 21.55 106.48 7
TS-2 TS-2-2 Kwandang - Manado - Bitung 1,399 3.5-10.0 2,671 1-38 24.26 15.08 11.88 12.26 8.26 10.75 21.80 104.29 8
TS-2-3 Molibagu - Worotican 184 4.5-8.4 393 2-4 24.26 9.05 7.92 9.19 13.77 7.17 19.58 90.93 14
TS-3-1 Jeneponto - Watampone - Wotu 1,452 3.9-9.7 2,431 1-10 36.38 6.03 19.79 9.19 11.01 14.34 25.48 122.23 2
Link No. TS-3 TS-3-2 Wotu - Poso - Toboli 1,069 4.2-5.5 1,777 1-5 24.26 6.03 7.92 9.19 11.01 7.17 15.07 80.65 17
TS-4-1 Toboli - Gorontalo 973 4.0-7.0 1,860 1-7 24.26 9.05 11.88 9.19 11.01 10.75 19.04 95.18 10 TS-4 TS-4-2 Gorontalo - Bitung 893 3.5-11.0 1,433 1-15 24.26 9.05 11.88 9.19 11.01 10.75 19.99 96.13 9
TS-5-1 Wotu - Kolaka 435 3.9-5.6 1,053 1-4 24.26 3.02 7.92 12.26 8.26 14.34 19.20 89.25 15
TS-5-2 Kolaka - Tinaggea - Kendari 1,060 4.2-17.8 1,090 1-3 12.13 9.05 7.92 12.26 8.26 10.75 19.70 80.06 18
TS-5-3 Kendari - Tondoyondo 373 4.3-6.0 384 1-3 24.26 9.05 7.92 9.19 11.01 10.75 16.96 89.14 16 TS-5 TS-5-4 Tondoyondo - Luwuk - Poso 1,235 3.5-6.0 1,238 1-3 12.13 12.06 11.88 12.26 11.01 10.75 21.53 91.62 13
TS-5-5 Kolaka - Kendari 312 4.5-6.7 465 1-9 24.26 12.06 7.92 9.19 13.77 7.17 19.48 93.85 11 TS-5-6 Landawe - Tolala 150 6.0 1,221 1 12.13 3.02 3.96 9.19 13.77 7.17 15.57 64.80 19
13-5
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
13.2.3 Sensitivity Test
A sensitivity test was carried out by changing the weights allocated to evaluation factors. The assumptions adopted were the following:
1) The weight of Economic Indicator (EIRR) changed from 30% (Base Case) to 20% and 10% downward, as well as from 40% to 50% upward.
2) The weight of Maturity/Existing Initiative was always fixed at 20%.
3) The remaining weights were equally shared by the other five factors.
The results are presented in Table 13.2.4. Results were quite stable except for some projects that fluctuated several ranks.
Table 13.2.4 Result of the Sensitivity Test with Different Weights for Economic Indicator (EIRR)
Sensitivity Analysis Basic Profile Priority Order Evaluation Investment and Total Length Width of Traffic Volume Base Case Construction EIRR=10% EIRR=20% EIRR=40% EIRR=50% (km) Pavement (m) (000PCUs/day) (EIRR=30%) Project Road Cost (Rp. Billion) Jeneponto - Makassar - TS-1-1 658 3.0-16.9 3,740 2-70 1 1 1 1 1 Parepare TS-1-2 Parepare - Mamuju 692 3.8-10.2 1,173 1-11 4 7 4 3 3
TS-1-3 Mamuju - Palu 387 4.4-6.0 1,011 4-14 12 13 13 12 12 TS-1 TS-1-4 Maros - Bajoe 144 6.0-8.0 275 6-9 5 9 7 5 4
TS-1-5 Parepare - Palopo 290 4.3-7.1 585 2-12 6 6 8 6 6
TS-1-6 Wonomulyo - Kaluku 200 6.0 432 1 3 12 5 2 2
TS-2-1 Palu - Kwandang 1,019 3.4-8.4 1,043 1-7 7 3 3 7 7
TS-2 TS-2-2 Kwandang - Manado - Bitung 1,399 3.5-10.0 2,671 1-38 8 4 6 8 8
TS-2-3 Molibagu - Worotican 184 4.5-8.4 393 2-4 14 14 14 13 13
TS-3-1 Jeneponto - Watampone - Wotu 1,452 3.9-9.7 2,431 1-10 2 2 2 4 5 TS-3 Link No. Link TS-3-2 Wotu - Poso - Toboli 1,069 4.2-5.5 1,777 1-5 17 18 18 17 16
TS-4-1 Toboli - Gorontalo 973 4.0-7.0 1,860 1-7 10 10 11 10 10 TS-4 TS-4-2 Gorontalo - Bitung 893 3.5-11.0 1,433 1-15 9 8 10 9 9
TS-5-1 Wotu - Kolaka 435 3.9-5.6 1,053 1-4 15 16 16 14 14
TS-5-2 Kolaka - Tinaggea - Kendari 1,060 4.2-17.8 1,090 1-3 18 17 17 18 18
TS-5-3 Kendari - Tondoyondo 373 4.3-6.0 384 1-3 16 15 15 15 15 TS-5 TS-5-4 Tondoyondo - Luwuk - Poso 1,235 3.5-6.0 1,238 1-3 13 5 9 16 17
TS-5-5 Kolaka - Kendari 312 4.5-6.7 465 1-9 11 11 12 11 11
TS-5-6Landawe - Tolala1506.01,22111919191919 Total 12,926 - 24,276 ------
13-6
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
13.3 Executing Agencies and Implementing Organizations
13.3.1 Executing Agencies
(1) National Road
The Directorate General of Highways (DGH: Bina Marga) of the Ministry of Public Works will be the executing agency responsible for the construction, operation as well as maintenance of the national road network. For the detailed design and construction stage, a Project Management Unit (PMU) will be established in Bina Marga in the case of donor supported projects. The PMU will represent the DGH and act as project employer.
Due to its character as a regional representative of the DGH in technical matters, the Balai Besar VI was assigned the responsibility of planning and monitoring of construction, operation and maintenance, and quality assurance of the national roads and bridges. It also conducts periodic maintenance of the national road network on the Sulawesi Island. Routine maintenance is conducted by force account of each province or regency government using the APBN allocated by the DGH.
(2) Provincial Roads
The Praswill and Dinas PU of each provincial government are responsible for the construction, operation and maintenance of the provincial road networks in each jurisdiction. The Praswill, or Dinas PU, acts as the executing agency of each project.
The planning and program execution of provincial road routes and their periodic maintenance are also conducted by the Praswill, or Dinas PU, of each province in the method described in Table 13.3.1.
Table 13.3.1 Maintenance Methods of Each Province No. of Routine Province Maintenance Periodic Maintenance Maintenance Force (person) 1. North Sulawesi 34 Fully Direct Fully Contract 2. Gorontalo 27 Fully Direct Fully Contract 3. Central Sulawesi 36 Fully Direct Fully Contract 4. South Sulawesi 22 Fully Direct Fully Contract 50% Direct:50%Sub Fully Contract 5. West Sulawesi 26 Contract 6. South East Sulawesi 34 Mostly Direct Fully Contract Mostly Contract out Fully Direct but actual 7. Balai Besar VI 36 to Provinces works by contractors Source: JICA Study Team, as of November 2007
13.3.2 Implementing Organizations
Since the Master Plan proposal involves comprehensive road network development of both
13-7
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
national and provincial roads through an integrated manner and requires maximum utilization of resources at all possible levels, for the implementation of the proposed master plan. A type of implementing organization for the donor supported national and provincial road project is as illustrated in Figure 13.3.1 which facilitates the necessary coordinative efforts and the utilization of resources in both the central and the regional governments.
In this type of organization, a working group would be set up at the central government level and would have a steering committee to monitor the activities of the working group. The working group should be composed of the DGH (including the head of PMU of the project) of Ministry of Public Works and the Directorate of Transportation of BAPPENAS. It should function as the center of inter-governmental coordination for project implementation using the Balai Besar, and possibly the BAPPEDA, as a regional channel and the PMU as the project implementation body. Close coordination should be required at the regional level between the Balai Besar and the Dinas PU/Praswil of the regional governments, and possibly between the working group through the MPW and BAPPENAS, as well as the regional Governors.
i SteeringSteering Committee Committee BAPPENASBAPPENAS GovernorGovernor
CentralCentral Government Government Working Working Group Group
DGHDGH
Technical Directorate of Dinas PlanningPlanning Technical Directorate of Balai Besar Dinas AffairsAffairs TransportationTransportation Balai Besar PU/PraswilPU/Praswil BAPPENAS Head of PMU BAPPENAS Head of PMU
SecretariatSecretariat of of PMU PMU
Implementation Implementation
ProjectProject Implementation Implementation of of Proposed Proposed Master Master Plan Plan
Coordination Line Command Line
Source: JICA Study Team
Figure 13.3.1 Possible Organization for Integrated Implementation of National and Provincial Road Project
13.4 Maintenance Plans
13.4.1 Maintenance Issues
(1) Necessity of Sufficient Budget for Road Maintenance
Sustainability of the road facilities after development, or betterment, is the most important issue.
13-8
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
New, or rehabilitated roads, will deteriorate through vehicle loading, weathering and aging. Maintenance reduces the rate of pavement deterioration, lowers vehicle operational costs, saving time costs, and provides continuous service for road users and communities. On the other hand, overloaded vehicles (e.g. trucks) shorten pavement life significantly. Road maintenance is defined as a process that optimizes overall performance of the roadway over time. Maintenance should be supported by system of information (data), planning, budgeting, and through practices with sound techniques.
The following figure illustrates a typical road surface deterioration having no maintenance and with proper maintenance for a typical road at approximately ADT 3,000 pcu.
Accumulated Years after Opening (New Construction/Betterment) 12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728
0.0 New Construction Road Surface Condition /Betterment (IRI) with proper routine and 2.0 periodic maintenance
4.0
6.0
8.0 Periodic Periodic Periodic Maintenance 10.0 Maintenance Maintenance (AC Overlay) (AC Overlay) (AC Overlay) 12.0 Road Surface Condition (IRI)
Road Surface Condition (IRI) Condition Surface Road without maintenance 14.0 Note: Periodic Maintenance 10 years after the betterment and at every 5 or 6 year after that. Source: JICA Study Team
Figure 13.4.1 Typical Road Surface Deterioration With and Without Maintenance
The International Roughness Index (IRI) for a new pavement is approximately 3.0 and its deterioration accelerates after the IRI exceeds approximately 4-5 if no proper maintenance is made.
Insufficient budget allocation for road maintenance, especially when there is economic or budget constraints, causes serious road deterioration. Both development and maintenance budgets for national roads has increased substantially in the 2006 – 2008 budgets reflecting better central administration policy compared with the 2004 – 2005 budgets. However, it should be noted that insufficient budgets is still the most critical issue for both provincial and regency roads. A total amount of Rp 386 - 579 billion, which is 1.0%-1.5% of the road asset values, is required annually for the routine maintenance of national, provincial and regency roads in Sulawesi as estimated in Table 13.4.1.
13-9
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 13.4.1 Annual Budget Requirements for Routine Maintenance Work Length Estimated Road Asset Value Required Budget (Bil. Rp) Road Status (km) Bil Rp./km Amount (Bi.Rp.) 1.0% - 1.5% of Asset National Road 8,100 1.4 11,340 113 - 170 Provincial Road 4,800 1.1 5,280 53 - 79 Regency Road 44,000 0.5 22,000 220 - 330 Total 56,900 38,620 386 - 579 Source: JICA Study Team
(2) Road Maintenance Capacity Development and Current Administration
The Road Maintenance Improvement Project was implemented in two phases from 1992-2001 under the JBIC’s soft loan finance. The objective of the project was institutional strengthening and capacity development for routine maintenance of national and provincial roads of over 60,000 km. The Road Maintenance Units (RMU) was established at about 100 Caban Dinas (Branch Office of the MPW) in Phase 1 and around 240 Caban Dinas in Phase 2 throughout the country. Maintenance equipment and tools were supplied to the RMUs and trainings were provided for working skill and management capacity development for human resources. Standard Routine Maintenance Manuals were also prepared for road and equipment maintenance.
These RMUs were transferred to the provincial PW (Dinas PU) or Regency PW (Dinas PU Kabupaten) in line with autonomy progress. Currently, the routine maintenance of the national roads was under the responsibility of the Dinas PU using the national budget (APBN). The responsibility was moved back to Balai Besar VI/MPW since January 2007, however routine maintenance work is still conducted by the Dinas PU.
The management, planning and execution of maintenance works are currently under responsibility of the following agencies:
- National roads by the DGH through the Balai Besar VI (Regional Office for Sulawesi) of central government
- Provincial roads by the Praswil or the Dinas PU of Provincial governments
- Regency roads (Kabupaten roads) by Dinas PU of Regency/City governments.
The routine maintenance for national roads is conducted through the normal budget accounts of the provincial or the regency government using the APBN (national budget). Routine maintenance for provincial roads is conducted through the inherent budget accounts of the provincial or regency governments using the APBD I (provincial budget). The periodic maintenance for both national and provincial roads is contracted out to the private sector. Those for city and regency roads are executed by contracts or force accounts by the APBD II.
Besides budget concerns, insufficient capacities, including management, equipment and skills, is one of the most urgent issues in the national, provincial and regency road maintenance to
13-10
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
overcome. According to the spot survey conducted in South Sulawesi Province, some of the equipment supplied under the Road Maintenance Improvement Project is still used but many require repairs or replacements.
13.4.2 Road Maintenance Plan for Arterial and Collector Roads
Road maintenance consists of the following: routine maintenance, periodic maintenance and emergency works. Routine maintenance is an activity that should be undertaken each year. It is mostly a labor intensive work compared with the periodic maintenance that is equipment based. The design period for new or betterment projects are 10 years. The first periodic maintenance is required 10 years after the opening of the road. In principle, since the design life for periodic maintenance is five years maintenance should be repeated every 5-8 years depending on the level of traffic. The required maintenance activities are classified in Table 13.4.2.
Table 13.4.2 Required Maintenance Activities for Road Facilities Category Classification Routine Periodic Emergency Damage or road cut-off Road surface (AC Crack sealing Overlay, partial by slope failures, pavement) Patching reconstruction scouring, etc. Roadway Vegetation
Shoulders and control approaches Spot failure
repair Culverts Cleaning Cleaning debris Drainage Roadside Drains Cleaning Cleaning debris Embankments Slope failure, settlement Removal of Roadside Slope failure repair Cut slopes fallen (grouted riprap, rock net) rock/boulders Repainting Superstructure Drainage Joint repair (steel) Scouring protection / Bridges Foundation repair Approach road Others settlement Traffic Information and Repainting of Replacement of crushed control regulation signs, markings signs, etc. device markings, etc. Replacement of crushed Guard rails, Safety devise guard rails, signs, barriers, etc. barriers, etc.
The above physical activities need equipment, materials, tools, personnel and budget. The maintenance can be conducted either through the usual budget accounts or through contracts.
Emergency works consist of unexpected repairs or activities. Approximately 25% of the national roads and 40% of the provincial roads are classified as having rolling or hilly terrains. Even roads along coastal lines often traverse mountainous terrain except these in South Sulawesi Province.
13-11
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Heavy rainfalls amounting 2,000 mm – 4,000 mm per year regularly cause slope failures/landslides or scouring in the mountain roads during the rainy season, often cutting off traffic for several days. These natural disasters give additional cost burdens on road maintenance efforts.
13.4.3 Approach for Asset Management and Road Funds
(1) Definition of Road Asset Management
The asset management approach should be applied for sustainability of road facilities and services,. Asset management can be defined as a “comprehensive and structured approach to the long term management of assets as tools for the efficient and effective delivery of community benefits”1. Or “systematic process of effectively maintaining, upgrading and operating assets, combining engineering principles with sound business practice and economic rationale, and providing the tools to facilitate a more organized and flexible approach to making decisions necessary to achieve the public’s expectations”2.
(2) IRMS and BMS
The Integrated Road Management System (IRMS) was locally introduced in the late 1980s and was periodically updated as a tool for systematic road management. With appropriate modification, the IRMS can be used as a tool for asset management. The latest version is the 2007 version. The system is based on the road inventory database which has several modules including planning, budgeting, economic evaluation and design. The IRMS covered both national and provincial roads up to the year 2004. However, provincial roads were transferred and managed by the provincial public works in line with the 2004 New Road Law and Autonomy Law. One of the major problems of the IRMS is its complication. Only a few well-rained personnel can use them. A more compact and user friendly system should be developed for both provincial and regency roads management.
The Bridge Management System (BMS) was introduced in line with the development of the Road Design Systems in the early 1990s. However, the system has not been updated for a long time and its data are outmoded and could not be used for planning and management. A new system should be developed for an efficient and effective bridge management.
(3) Approach for Road Fund Establishment
The key factor in good maintenance practices is financial and budgeting sustainability which is based on an efficient and effective management system. Stable funding sources should be established to sustain maintenance programs. Two approaches can be used for this: budget approach and road fund approach. The former is a public expenditure that is covered by either the national or provincial budgets. Fuel taxes, vehicle registration fees, and others levies are used as general taxes and are then allocated for the road sector budget. The road fund approach allows road
1 Austroads 1997 for improving asset management practice 2 OECD 13-12
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
users to pay for the cost of road use. Revenues from the road use is then applied to cover road costs. The former is currently being practiced in Indonesia while the latter is being envisioned as one of the future challenging endeavors.
The road fund is an instrument that is generally used a main source for financing road maintenance and other road expenditures. Since the mid-1950s, this approach has been used in such countries as the USA, Japan, New Zealand. Road users pay user charges mainly in the form of a gasoline levy. Gasoline levies are the most economical and efficient collection method since they are collected at refineries or at ports of import. The road fund is free from budget fluctuations as it is generally managed and distributed by an independent board. In recent years, the road fund approach has become widespread and applied in many developing countries (more than 30 countries), including Ethiopia, Ghana, Benin, Kenya, Uganda, Honduras, Laos, etc. The first priority of the instrument is the sufficient collection of funds to cover for road maintenance. Currently, several countries have even attained a 90% collection rate for the required fund maintenance. Sources from the road fund could also be used for road safety, overload control and others, including road asset management activities.
A study was made in Indonesia focusing on the appropriateness of establishing a road fund under the World Bank’s financial cooperation (EIRTP-1). However, as its application has not yet started, there is a need to strengthen current approaches to secure present maintenance costs.
13.4.4 Overloaded Vehicle Control System
(1) Regulations
In 1999, the Ministry of Communications and Ministry of Public Works, Bina Marga issued “Surat No. UM-0103-Db/898” touching on road re-classification due to serious pavement damages from overloaded and heavy vehicles. The decree from the Minister of the MOC, No.KM13 Year 2001, paved the way for the designation of road classification in Sulawesi. Under the decree, roads were classified into Class I, II, IIIA, IIIB and IIIC.
Table 13.4.3 Axle Load Limit Criteria by Road Class Class Maximum Size of Vehicles Maximum Axle Load (ton) I W= 2.5m, L=18m >10 II W=2.5m, L=18m 10 IIIA W=2.5m, L=18m IIIB W=2.5m, L=12m 8 IIIC W=2.1m, L=9 m
All national roads in Sulawesi were classified into either IIIA or IIIB. The maximum axel loads allowed on public roads is 8 tons.
(2) Present Situation of Overloading and Weigh Bridge Stations
As part of a traffic survey for the FS on the prioritization of roads in the Mamminasata Metropolitan Area, an axle load survey was conducted in April 2007. The survey showed that
13-13
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
approximately 47% - 64% of trucks were overloaded (refer to Volume II, FS Report). Especially overloaded were 3-axle trucks carrying construction materials (sand, gravel and soil), agricultural products and cement trucks. Overloading was significant with maximum axle loads reaching 25-28 tons.
Overloading has a highly negative effect on pavements, road safety and traffic capacity. Negative effects can be assessed through the vehicle damage factor (VDF/ESAL). Vehicle damage factors increases from the 4th to 5th power of the axle load as illustrated in Figure 13.4.2 (a case in the Mamminasata Metropolitan Area, which illustrates that overloading control is extremely important in the proper maintenance of pavement life.
AXLE LOAD EQUIVALENCY FACTORS COMPARISON Rigid Pavement, Slab Thickness 11 inches (28cm) and Flexible Pavement SN=4.0, at pt=2.5
66
64 AASHTO (PCCP-Single) 62 60 AASHTO (PCCP-Tandem) 58 56 AASHTO (AC-Single) 54 52 50 AASHTO (AC-Tandem) ESAL FOR 48 SINGLE 46 Single (AL/8.16)^4.5 AXLE 44 42 Tandem ((AL/2)/8.16)^4.5*2 40 38 36 ESAL FOR 34 ESAL (VDF) at ESAL (VDF) at TANDEM AXLES 32 Somba Opu (Gowa) Maccopa (Maros) Weigh-Bridge Station VDF (ESA) 30 Weigh-Bridge Station 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435 Note: VDF = ESAL AXLE LOAD (METRIC TON) Source: JICA Study Team Figure 13.4.2 Effects of VDF on Overloading and Vehicle Damage Factors
Weigh bridges are located on the national road network throughout the island and they are operated by the Provincial Transport Agencies. However, existing weigh bridges are not used effectively and efficiently. In addition, countless overloaded trucks have used alternatives routes to skip overload control stations.
13-14
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
(4) Measures for Overloaded Vehicle Control
Measures that will improve the function of overloaded vehicle control include the following:
- Improve transparency in axle and gross weight control methods and operations.
- Increase the number of weighing stations at strategic points of arterial and collector roads to prevent overloaded trucks from skipping control station through alternative routes.
- Strengthen education for vehicle owners and drivers.
- Introduce MST 10 ton routes (Class II roads) for heavy loaded road routes.
The Study Team recommends the introduction of a computer-assisted system at weighing stations as shown in Figure 13.4.3. In the system, when a heavy vehicle passes on a weigh bridge its gross weight is transmitted to a computer wherein the magnitude of overloading and the corresponding fines are automatically identified and indicated on an electronic board.
Weigh Bridge
Source: JICA Study （2nd Kohat Tunnel FS） in Pakistan
Figure 13.4.3 Example of Computer-Assisted Overload Control System
This system is expected to contribute to the substantial reduction of overloaded vehicles since records are stored in computers and they are checked by supervisors and third parties. The private sector is also encouraged to participate in the operation of the weigh bridges in cooperation with the traffic police. Transport agencies should remain as administrators and supervisors of private operators.
Another important measure that can minimize overloading is the education of transport operators and drivers through the provision of information and guidance on overloading policies and the corresponding fine system. Information on overload control practices should also be opened to the public.
In addition to the above measures, a policy review will be required for the upgrading of some road links, from Class IIIA/IIIB to Class II, especially those constantly used by heavy vehicles including trailers, so that the MST 10 tons (VDF 2.5) can be applied. This will increase the design strength of pavement by about 2.5 times compared with MST 8.0 ton (VDF 1.0).
13-15
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
13.5 Funding Requirement and Financing Plans
13.5.1 Funding Requirements of the Proposed Master Plan
Funding requirements for implementing the entire Master Plan for 2008-2024, including the maintenance and development of both national and provincial road network has been appropriately estimated. As shown in Table 13.5.1 the entire investment cost, which include both development and maintenance, is estimated at Rp 35,199 billion (National Road: Rp 23,771 billion and Provincial Road: Rp 11,428 billion). The investment is further broken down to the following terms: Short-term (2008-2014), Medium-term (2015-2019) and Long-term (2020-2024).
Table 13.5.1 Funding Requirement for Proposed Master Plan Total Project Cost Arterial Collector Improvement measures Total Amount Road Road (km) (km) (km) Rp Billion A. National Road (Arterial road + Collector (K-1) road)
Development Cost 3,123 2,946 6,069 13,644
Periodic and Routine Maintenance Costs 3,256 4,885 8,141 10,127
Total A 23,771 B. Provincial Road (Collector road K-2 & K-3)
Development Cost 0 2,342 2,342 5,249
Periodic and Routine Maintenance Costs 0 4,785 4,785 6,179
Total B 0 7,127 7,127 11,428 Total A+B 35,199
Source: JICA Study Team
13.5.2 Possible Budget Envelope
(1) Recent Trends in Budget Allocations for National and Provincial Roads
Development of the national road network has been funded by the APBN 8,000 budget allocated through the Bina 7,000 Marga. The recent trend in budget 6,000
5,000 allocation from the Bina Marga to the Maluku dan Papua
Sulaw esi Regions is shown in Figure 13.5.1. The 4,000 Bali dan Nusa Tengara Rp Billion budget for Sumatra is excluded to 3,000 Kalimantan Jaw a eliminate the effects of the large budget 2,000 allocation due to the 1,000
earthquake/tsunami catastrophe in 2003. 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 As shown in the figure the total Bina Year Marga budget has doubled since 2005. Source: Bina Marga, Note: Excluded Sumatra data A similar trend is observed for the Figure 13.5.1 Trend of National Road Budget
13-16
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Sulawesi Region total. The current government has a clear focus on the improvement of the nation’s road infrastructure.
However it should be noted that the transport sector budget of the GOI had experienced drastic decreases from 1993-1994 down to 1/6 to 1/7 in 20013 in terms of GDP share due to the financial crisis and the decentralization policy of the central government. The current increase of the Bina Marga Budget may be considered as a reactionary process aimed at resuming the 1993-1994 budget levels based on the policy change of the current regime focusing on the development of the nation’s infrastructure. In addition, Bina Marga is preparing a multi-year contract package for the comprehensive improvement of the Western Corridor of Sulawesi Island and other routes which will contribute again to a large increase of the national road budget of the Sulawesi Region in 2008 and 2009.
As for the provincial road development budgets the average annual growth rate has been about 6% from 2002-2007.
(2) Possible Budget Envelope Estimates
Estimation of the Budget Envelope is conducted on the basis of project budget only (construction/betterment and periodic/routine maintenance), from which the general administration cost, headquarter cost (for DGH) and planning & control costs are excluded.
The estimates are based on the following conditions:
Budget Growth Assumptions:
Development Budget for National Roads: The multi-year package for the Western Corridor (2008-2009) will increase the Sulawesi Region’s budget to Rp 2 trillion level4 in 2008, then keep the 2008 level for the Short-term. It will decrease by 30% for the Medium-term and decrease by another 30% for the Long-term.
Development Budget for Provincial Roads: Following the same pattern, the 2008 level will be maintained for the Short-term, then decrease by 30% for the Medium-term and decrease by another 30% for the Long-term.
Maintenance Budget for National Roads: Following the same pattern as above for the Short-term, but will increase by 30% for the Medium-term, and increase by another 30% for the Long-term.
Maintenance Budget for Provincial Roads: Follows the same pattern of the Maintenance Budget for National Roads.
3 The ratio of total development expenditure against GDP was about 9% in 1993/94 which decreased down to about 3% in 2000. The ratio of development expenditure for Transport, Meteorology and Geophysics against GDP was about 1.5% in 1993/94 which decreased down to 0.2% in 2001. 4 The figure is based on the interview with Balai Besar VI. 13-17
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
The total possible budget envelope estimates is shown in Table 13.5.2 and Figure 13.5.2. It is about Rp 35.4 trillion for the entire period (2008-2024), and includes the development and maintenance costs of both the national and provincial road networks of the Sulawesi Region.
Table 13.5.2 Possible Budget Envelopes for National and Provincial Roads
Short-termIncrease Medium-termIncrease Long-term Ratio Ratio Total Rp Bil. Years Rp Bil. Rp Bil. Years Rp Bil. Rp Bil. Years Rp Bil. Rp Bil. Dev. Budget 1,233 7 8,631 (-) 30% 863 5 4,316 (-) 30% 604 5 3,021 15,967 National Road Maintenance 680 7 4,760 (+) 30% 884 5 4,420 (+) 30% 1,149 5 5,746 14,926 Total 1,913 13,391 1,747 8,736 1,753 8,767 30,893 Dev. Budget 185 7 1,295 (-) 30% 130 5 648 (-) 30% 91 5 453 2,396 Provincial Road Maintenance 96 7 672 (+) 30% 125 5 624 (+) 30% 162 5 811 2,107 Total 281 1,967 254 1,272 253 1,264 4,503 Dev. Budget 1,418 7 9,926 993 5 4,963 695 5 3,474 18,363 Total Maintenance 776 7 5,432 1,009 5 5,044 1,311 5 6,557 17,033 Total 2,194 15,358 2,001 10,007 2,006 10,031 35,396 Source: JICA Study Team
2,500
Existing Short-term Medium-term Loge-term
2,000
1,500 Maintenance(PR)
Development(PR)
Maintenance(NR) 1,000 Development(NR) RP Billion (2006 Price) (2006 Billion RP
500
0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Year
Figure 13.5.2 Possible Budget Envelope for National and Provincial Roads
13-18
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
13.5.3 Estimated Financing Plan
(1) Financing Methods
General Financing methods for the development and maintenance of national and provincial roads are illustrated in Figure 13.5.3. An external soft loan is applicable for the development of both national and provincial roads. According to the current EIRTP-2 practice, the external soft loan for the development of provincial road is utilized on the basis of an on-granting mechanism with an on-granting agreement between the MOF and the grant receiver (Province) and with the Ministry of Public Works as the implementing agency of the loan program.
Operation and Construction Maintenance Option 1: Public Investment (1) National Road Option 1-(1)-1 Domestic Budget Only
Government GOI (APBN / APBD Land Acquisition GOI (APBN) Investment I & II)
Civil Works GOI (APBN) National Road Consultancy Section Services
Option 1-(1)-2 External Soft Loan Government GOI (APBN /APBD I GOI (APBN) Investment Land Acquisition & II)
External Soft Loan Civil Works (100%) APBN & APBD I Consultancy National Road Services Section
(2) Provincial Road Option 1-(2)-1 Domestic Budget Only
Government GOI (APBN / APBD Land Acquisition GOI (APBD I) Investment I & II)
Civil Works GOI (APBN) Provincial Road Consultancy Section Services
Option 1-(2)-2 External Soft Loan Government GOI (APBN /APBD I GOI (APBD I) Investment Land Acquisition & II)
External Soft Loan Civil Works (100%) APBN & APBD I Consultancy Provincial Road Services Section
Option 2: Private Sector Participation
GOI (APBN / APBD GOI (APBN / APBD I) I & II) Land Acquisition Private Sector Investment Private Sector
Private Sector Civil Works Potential National Private Sector and Provincial Consultancy Road Section Services
Note: Excluding VAT and Administration cost Source: JICA Study Team Figure 13.5.3 Financing Methods for National and Provincial Road
13-19
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
(2) Potential Funding Sources for Provincial Road Development
The following are potential funding sources which could be utilized for the development of provincial roads:
1) Funding from the Line Ministry (APBN): National Budget from the Bina Marga when a road sector (APBN) allocated for the development of a national road could be allocated for the development of Provincial Road on the basis that the road itself has a strategic nature, and preferably connects with a national road network.
2) External Soft Loan/Grant (APBN): The Ministry of Finance prepares both the on-granting scheme for the Regional Government (PMK 52 /2006: Peraturan Menteri Keuangan, Nomor 52/PMK 010 /2006) and the on-lending scheme of the External Loan (PMK 53 /2006). However, due to the limited financial capacities of the Regional Government, only the on-granting practices of the External Loan have been adopted so far. The on-granting program may be extended both to the Provincial and Kabupaten/Kota governments. As described above the project funding for the ERITP 2 project is implemented on an on-granting basis of 30% - 90%.
3) DAK (Special Allocation Fund: APBN allocated to APBD): DAK is one category of balancing funds from the GOI to the Regional Government. DAK has been allocated to the road sector expenditures of the Kabupaten/Kota Governments in the last two years. It was started this year for the Provincial Governments based on the proposal from the Regional Governments. However, the DAK allocated to the road sector should be used in accordance with the PU’s instruction (Peraturan Menteri Pekerjaan Umum Nomor: 39 /PRT/M/2006) which stipulates 70% share for maintenance and 30% for the improvement/construction.
4) General Provincial Budget (APBD I): Although limited, the General Provinicial Budget (APBD I) is the major funding source for both the development/improvement and maintenance of regional roads. APBD I is financed through regional tax/levy revenues and the Balancing Fund from the GOI such as the Revenue Sharing, the General Allocation Fund (DAU) and the Special Allocation Fund (DAK). For the Sulawesi Provinces their revenue for 2006 was composed of 32% of their own local revenues and 68% by the balancing fund from the GOI.
5) Private Funding: When traffic volume is large and toll charges can be applied for road users, private funding may be tapped for the development and operation/maintenance of both national and provincial road sections.
13-20
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
13.6 Implementation Schedules
13.6.1 Implementation Plan Concepts
To establish realistic and effective implementation schedules, the following concepts were applied:
(1) Completion of on-going project in the short-term
All of the on-going improvement projects being implemented or committed by international funding agencies and domestic funds, such as the EINRIP by the AusAID, Road Improvement through a Multi Year Contract (2007-2009) by the Bina Marga, shall be completed in the short-term plan (2008 -2014).
(2) Implementation of “Urgent Bridge Repair Program” in the short-term plan
“Urgent bridge repair program” should cover the whole network of national roads and provincial roads and should be implemented in the short-term plan taking into account the safety of traffic as well as the adverse impacts on local socio-economic activities.
(3) Allocation of the project in accordance with order of priorities
The project shall be distributed in the short-term, medium-term and long-term in accordance with the order of priorities which has been developed through the project evaluation in terms of economic feasibility, social and natural environmental impacts and maturity of the project.
13.6.2 Road Investment Plan
Based on the financing plan discussed in Section 13.5, the Study Team prepared the road investment plans with three alternatives focused on development cost, as follows:
Case 1: Equal Investment Plan (Development cost is allocated equally in the short-term, medium-term and long-term).
Case 2: Intermediate Investment Plan between Case 1 and Case 3.
Case 3: Early Investment Plan (60% of development cost is allocated positively in the short-term plan)
The maintenance cost is allocated into the short-term (20%), medium-term (30%) and long-term (50%) taking into consideration the progress of the road improvement work through new construction and betterment. The above distribution patterns on maintenance costs are similarly applied to all the cases.
Table 13.6.1 (1) to Table 13.6.1 (3) shows the road investment plan including the prospect of road budget in each term. The Study team recommends Case 3 as the most realistic and effective investment plan taking into consideration the right balance in investment costs and the budget in
13-21
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
all periods. It concludes as follows:
(1) The road investment and prospect road budget in Case 3 are balanced if a current road budget for national road is secured continuously by the end of the master plan in 2024. This means, that all proposed roads in the master plan would be improved to the planned design and will be completed in accordance with the implementation of the schedule without delay.
(2) The possibility of the national budget being used for national road would be sufficient, so that all the national roads will have all weather conditions with high design standards and sufficient traffic capacity by the year 2024.
If there are roads with increasing traffic volumes they should be improved and widened using the balance budget. It is also advised that the improvement and strengthening of the existing road maintenance system and management system including traffic safety should be implemented simultaneously using the balance of budget.
(3) Prospects for budget of development and road maintenance always have constraints in all the periods. Therefore, it is necessary to look for additional fund sources in order to complete the improvement of the provincial road network. Provincial road is the important transport network in addition to the Kabupaten road that would support local socio-economic activities. However, these roads are usually left unattended and in poor condition due to lack of funds for improvement and maintenance.
The Study Team, therefore, recommends that the central government provides the strategic financial assistance to the provincial government in order to support the development of the provincial roads including the kabupaten roads. (Kabupaten road plays an important role as a means of local transport and spans 44,000km in Sulawesi, while national road and provincial road cover 12,900km in total).
13.6.3 Bridge Investment Plan
The total length of bridges on national and provincial roads is approximately 55,000m and 38,000m, respectively. As planned in Section 8.2.8, 326 numbers (5,510 m in length) and 397 numbers (6,050 m in length) of bad conditioned bridges will be replaced in the short-term plan (2008 -2014) irrespective traffic volumes to solve bottle necks in the arterial road network.
The required investment cost for “Urgent Bridge Repair Program” is included in either development or maintenance budget of the road investment plan.
13-22
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 13.6.1 (1) Proposed Investment Allocation & Financing Plan (Case 1: Equal Investment Plan)
(1) Proposed Investment Allocation Plan US$1.0 = Rp. 9,322, Rp 1.0 = \ 0.013 Total Project Cost Short-term (2008-2014) Medium-term (2015-2019) Long-term (2020-2024) Arterial Collector Improvement measures Total AmountLength Amount Length AmountLength Amount Remarks Road Road (km) (km) (km) Rp Billion (km) (%) Rp Billion (km) (%) Rp Billion (km) (%) Rp Billion A. National Road (Arterial road + Collector (K-1) road) Rp.431Billion of Urgent Bridge Repair on National Road Development Cost 3,123 2,946 6,069 13,644 2,023 33% 4,835 2,023 33% 4,404 2,023 33% 4,404 (345Nos or 6,000m) is included in the short-term plan Urgent overlay of pavement (675km) is required in the Periodic and Routine Maintenance Costs 3,256 4,885 8,141 10,127 1,628 20% 2,025 2,442 30% 3,038 4,071 50% 5,064 short-term Total A 23,771 3,651 6,861 7,443 9,468 B. Provincial Road (Collector road K-2 & K-3) Rp.431Billion of Urgent Bridge Repair on Provincial Road Development Cost 0 2,342 2,342 5,249 781 33% 2,052 781 33% 1,598 781 33% 1,598 (397Nos or 6,500m) is included in the short-term plan Urgent overlay of pavement (982km) is required in the Periodic and Routine Maintenance Costs 0 4,785 4,785 6,179 957 20% 1,236 1,436 30% 1,854 2,393 50% 3,090 short-term Total B 0 7,127 7,127 11,428 1,738 3,288 3,452 4,688 Total A+B 35,199 10,149 10,895 14,156
(2) Prospect of Road Budget Short-term (2008-2014) Medium-term (2015-2020) Long-term (2020-2024) Expected Budget Remarks Total Amount Total Amount Total Amount Development Budget 15,968 8,631 4,316 3,021 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 3,796 ▲ 88 ▲ 1,383 Maintenance Budget 14,926 4,760 4,420 5,746 A. National Road Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 2,735 1,382 683 Total (A) 30,894 13,391 8,736 8,767 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 6,530 1,293 ▲ 701 Development Budget 2,396 1,295 648 453 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) ▲ 757 ▲ 950 ▲ 1,145 Maintenance Budget 2,107 672 624 811 B. Provincial Road Difference (surplus /▲shortage) ▲ 564 ▲ 1,230 ▲ 2,279 Total (B) 4,503 1,967 1,272 1,264 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) ▲ 1,321 ▲ 2,180 ▲ 3,424 Total A+B 35,397 15,358 10,008 10,031 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 198 5,209 ▲ 887 ▲ 4,125
Table 13.6.1 (2) Proposed Investment Allocation & Financing Plan (Case 2: Intermediate Plan)
(1) Proposed Investment Allocation Plan US$1.0 = Rp. 9,322, Rp 1.0 = \ 0.013 Total Project Cost Short-term (2008-2014) Medium-term (2015-2019) Long-term (2020-2024) Arterial Collector Improvement measures Total AmountLength AmountLength AmountLength Amount Remarks Road Road (km) (km) (km) Rp Billion (km) (%) Rp Billion (km) (%) Rp Billion (km) (%) Rp Billion A. National Road (Arterial road + Collector (K-1) road) Rp.431Billion of Urgent Bridge Repair on National Road Development Cost 3,123 2,946 6,069 13,644 3,035 50% 7,110 2,124 35% 4,632 910 15% 1,903 (345Nos or 6,000m) is included in the short-term plan Urgent overlay of pavement (675km) is required in the Periodic and Routine Maintenance Costs 3,256 4,885 8,141 10,127 1,628 20% 2,025 2,442 30% 3,038 4,071 50% 5,064 short-term Total A 23,771 4,663 9,135 7,670 6,967 B. Provincial Road (Collector road K-2 & K-3) Rp.431Billion of Urgent Bridge Repair on Provincial Road Development Cost 0 2,342 2,342 5,249 1,171 50% 2,927 820 35% 1,686 351 15% 636 (397Nos or 6,500m) is included in the short-term plan Urgent overlay of pavement (982km) is required in the Periodic and Routine Maintenance Costs 0 4,785 4,785 6,179 957 20% 1,236 1,436 30% 1,854 2,393 50% 3,090 short-term Total B 0 7,127 7,127 11,428 2,128 4,163 3,540 3,726 Total A+B 35,199 13,298 11,210 10,692
(2) Prospect of Road Budget Short-term (2008-2014) Medium-term (2015-2020) Long-term (2020-2024) Expected Budget Remarks Total Amount Total Amount Total Amount Development Budget 15,968 8,631 4,316 3,021 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 1,521 1,278 1,118 Maintenance Budget 14,926 4,760 4,420 5,746 A. National Road Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 2,735 1,382 683 Total (A) 30,894 13,391 8,736 8,767 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 4,256 1,066 1,800 Development Budget 2,396 1,295 648 453 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) ▲ 1,632 ▲ 1,038 ▲ 183 Maintenance Budget 2,107 672 624 811 B. Provincial Road Difference (surplus /▲shortage) ▲ 564 ▲ 1,230 ▲ 2,279 Total (B) 4,503 1,967 1,272 1,264 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) ▲ 2,196 ▲ 2,268 ▲ 2,462 Total A+B 35,397 15,358 10,008 10,031 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 35,397 2,060 ▲ 1,202 ▲ 661
13-23
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 13.6.1 (3) Proposed Investment Allocation & Financing Plan (Case 3: Early Investment Plan)
(1) Proposed Investment Allocation Plan US$1.0 = Rp. 9,322, Rp 1.0 = \ 0.013 Total Project Cost Short-term (2008-2014) Medium-term (2015-2019) Long-term (2020-2024) Arterial Collector Improvement measures Total AmountLength Amount Length Amount Length Amount Remarks Road Road (km) (km) (km) Rp Billion (km) (%) Rp Billion (km) (%) Rp Billion (km) (%) Rp Billion A. National Road (Arterial road + Collector (K-1) road) Rp.431Billion of Urgent Bridge Repair on National Road Development Cost 3,123 2,946 6,069 13,644 3,641 60% 8,402 1,821 30% 3,878 607 10% 1,364 (345Nos or 6,000m) is included in the short-term plan Urgent overlay of pavement (675km) is required in the Periodic and Routine Maintenance Costs 3,256 4,885 8,141 10,127 1,628 20% 2,025 2,442 30% 3,038 4,071 50% 5,064 short-term Total A 23,771 5,270 10,428 6,916 6,428 B. Provincial Road (Collector road K-2 & K-3) Rp.431Billion of Urgent Bridge Repair on Provincial Road Development Cost 0 2,342 2,342 5,249 1,405 60% 3,376 703 30% 1,348 234 10% 525 (397Nos or 6,500m) is included in the short-term plan Urgent overlay of pavement (982km) is required in the Periodic and Routine Maintenance Costs 0 4,785 4,785 6,179 957 20% 1,236 1,436 30% 1,854 2,393 50% 3,090 short-term Total B 0 7,127 7,127 11,428 2,362 4,612 3,201 3,614 Total A+B 35,199 15,040 10,117 10,042
(2) Prospect of Road Budget Short-term (2008-2014) Medium-term (2015-2020) Long-term (2020-2024) Expected Budget Remarks Total Amount Total Amount Total Amount Development Budget 15,968 8,631 4,316 3,021 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 229 438 1,657 Maintenance Budget 14,926 4,760 4,420 5,746 A. National Road Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 2,735 1,382 683 Total (A) 30,894 13,391 8,736 8,767 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 2,963 1,820 2,339 Development Budget 2,396 1,295 648 453 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) ▲ 2,081 ▲ 700 ▲ 72 Maintenance Budget 2,107 672 624 811 B. Provincial Road Difference (surplus /▲shortage) ▲ 564 ▲ 1,230 ▲ 2,279 Total (B) 4,503 1,967 1,272 1,264 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) ▲ 2,645 ▲ 1,929 ▲ 2,350 Total A+B 35,397 15,358 10,008 10,031 Difference (surplus /▲shortage) 198 318 ▲ 109 ▲ 11
13.6.4 Implementation Plan of Proposed Project
Nineteen packages of the road project is allocated in the short-, medium-, and long-terms in accordance with the prioritization as well as the ceiling of the road investment plan (Case 3) and the results of the implementation plan, as shown in Table 13.6.2.
The following conditions were assumed in preparing for the implementation schedule:
1) The construction period is estimated taking into account the construction costs of each package as follows:
Construction cost Construction period Less than Rp. 500 Billion 2 years Rp.500 Billion – Rp.1,000 Billion 3 years Rp.1,000 Billion – Rp. 1,500 Billion 4 years More than Rp. 1,500 Billion 5 years – 7 years
13-24
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 13.6.2 Summary of Project Implementation Schedule ,054 3 2024 02 330 330 8,154 ects. p 86 1,891 1,952 2,130 2,384 Routine & Periodic Maintenance Periodic & Routine and other as 4,890 Routine & Periodic Maintenance Periodic & Routine (APBN included) (APBN 922 1,896 2,106 2,213 2,064 1,838 1,6 ch road economical, linkon both technical Implementation Schedule (Rp.Billion) (Aus AID included) the validation the of ea g 3,261 11,77815,039 5,227 10,117 1,889 10,043 (AusAID, APBN included) (APBN included) Short-term Medium-term Long-term reviewin y (WB) (WB) APBN) (AusAID, (AusAID/APBN) (AusAID) (WB) Routine & Periodic Maintenance Periodic & Routine Urgent Repair of Deteriorated Pavement 300 350 450 500 511 550 600 750 900 1,000 1,100 1,140 1,250 1,400 1,650 1,800 2 ective of EIRR. p 1,689 2,231 1,821 1,789 1,581 1,344 1,322 1,146 1,206 1,213 964 698 436 491 3 under IRMS b 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202 1,989 2,581 2,271 2,289 2,092 1,894 1, g lannin p rams irres rams g ect ect j ro p ro p km (Rp.Billion) 12,925 16,305
Length Cost Const.
EIRR Priority by Priority ram at the time of detailed under the road maintenance ) g y mportant roads mportant nance: Yen Loan, ro and Class IV) p nd others de 5 and Wooden ected finance: Yen Abdullah Daeng riorit p her g Location iven hi g ed to betterment betterment to ed g Jeneponto - Makassar - Parepare Palopo - Parepare Wonomulyo - Kaluku Palu - Kwandang ManadoKwandang - Bitung - Molibagu - Worotican Toboli - Gorontalo Gorontalo - Bitung Kolaka - Wotu Kolaka - Tinanggea - Kendari Kendari - Tondoyondo Tondoyondo - Luwuk - Poso Kolaka - Kendari Landawe - Tolala Jeneponto - Watampone - Wotu Toboli - Poso - Wotu Parepare - Mamuju - Parepare Mamuju - Palu Bajoe - Maros ulti YearContract (2007 - 2009 epair of PavementIII in Class airof Bridges in Grade 4, Gra No. Southeast Sulawesi Southeast Province a ata including Road,Hertasning TS-3-1 2 1,452 1,892 TS-1-2TS-1-3TS-1-4TS-1-5TS-1-6TS-2-1TS-2-2TS-3-2 4TS-4-1 12TS-4-2 5 692TS-5-1 387 6TS-5-2 3 144TS-5-3 1,111 7 290TS-5-4 890 8 200TS-5-5 1,019 157 TS-5-6 1,399 414 17 372 465 10 2,109 1,069 9 15 973 18 1,346 893 16 435 1,060 1,785 13 1,052 11 373 1,235 19 972 902 312 150 547 709 440 660 TS-1-1 1 658 2,742 Package proposed in the Master Plan in the Master proposed Grand Total (I)+(II) 12,925 35,199 ram could be chan g ects in the Short-term Plan the Short-term in ects ro p oad IV) links (Class will be Total Road Development Cost (I) RoadTotal Cost Development 12,925 18,894 Total Road Maintenance Cost (II)Road Cost Total Maintenance * BD and others) Project
TS Main Corridor south (West Corridor) includingconnected roadsprovincial TS Main Corridor (West-North section ) includingconnected roadsprovincial RoadCrossing TS Main Corridor (Central including north section) connected provincial roads TS-2-3TS Main Corridor (East Corridor) includingconnected roadsprovincial WB by EIRTP AusAID, by EINRIP Other Road Improvement M by APBN 14 184Bridges) Trans Sulawesi Mamminasata 331 Maros - Takalar Section (Expected fi Urgent Bridge Repair Program (Rep Loan, APBN, AP APBN and others) Priority urban roads in Mamminas Manado Bypass, Gorontalo Bypass and other PriorityRoads andother GorontaloBypass Bypass, Manado Priority Roads Projects proposed in this Master Plan Study (Exp TS Main Corridor (Central including section) south connected provincial roads Urgent PavementUrgent RepairProgram(R Routine and Periodic Maintenance SiruaRoad, MamminasaBypass, Tg Bunga-TakalarRoad and other i Bridge Reconstructionin Projects Crossing Road Crossing Road Crossing 2: * Road maintenance
TS-1 TS-2 TS-3 TS-4 TS-5 (I) Road Development Project MaintenanceII. Road 2. On-going or committed proj or committed 2. On-going Notes 1: * Bad Notes conditioned r 3. Recommended priority projects priority projects 3. Recommended 1. Proposed Project 1. Proposed Source: JICA Study Team
13-25
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
2) The construction costs of each package includes the development cost only, while the ceiling amount in each term is allocated based on the road investment plan of Case 3 as follows: Short-term : Rp. 11,779 Billion Medium-term : Rp. 5,226 Billion Long-term : Rp. 1,889 Billion
3) Specific projects which were considered in the short-term plan:
(a) On-going projects:
EINRIP by AusAID (2007-2009), Road Improvement by multi-year contract (2007-2009) by DGH, Manado and Gorontalo Bypass and other important roads.
(b) Recommended priority development projects (Expected fund):
¾ Priority road projects including urgent bridge repair program*
(Yen Loan, APBN, APBD, others)
¾ Trans Sulawesi Mamminasata from Maros to Takalar
(Yen Loan, APBN, others)
¾ Priority Arterial Roads in Mamminasata Metropolitan Area*
(Yen Loan, APBN, APBD, others)
¾ Bridge Reconstruction Project in Southeast Province and others.
Notes: i) In case of Yen Loan: This is soft loan ODA and appropriate for implementing of large scale projects with an EIRR of more than 15%.
ii) In case of Japanese Grant: This aid is appropriate for implementing projects that contribute to basic human needs of the local people even if their EIRR is less than 15%. For the urgent bridge repair program by the Japanese grant, for example, the program should be for the road routes in islands and inland areas, where securing of access is important for community life (school, health care centers, markets, etc) and regional development, though economic priority is relatively low. The numbers of bridges subjected to the Urgent Bridge Repair Program are as shown in Table 13.6.3. About 40% of these bridges are located in Southeast Sulawesi Province and, therefore, the priority of implementation can be considered for this province in case of the Japanese grant.
13-26
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 13.6.3 Urgent Bridge Repair Program by Province
Province No Fair/Poor Bad/ Very Bad Wooden/ Total Bad, Very Bad & Wooden Damage/Good Unknown North Sulawesi 671 160 42 100 973 142 20% 69% 16% 4% 10% 100% 15% Gorontalo 292 10 36 0 338 36 5% 86% 3% 11% 0% 100% 11% Central Sulawesi 1,222 390 40 55 1,707 95 13% 72%23%2%3%100%6% West Sulawesi 241 65 22 37 365 59 8% 66% 18% 6% 10% 100% 16% South Sulawesi 965 321 67 25 1,378 92 13% 70%23%5%2%100%7% South East Sulawesi 550 257 144 155 1,106 299 41% 50% 23% 13% 14% 100% 27% Total 3,941 1,203 351 372 5,867 723 100% 67% 21% 6% 6% 100% 12% Source: JICA Study Team
(c) Maintenance projects and programs:
¾ Urgent pavement repair program for road conditions of poor and bad.
(Yen Loan, APBN, APBD, others)
Notes: i) Bad conditioned road links (Class IV) will be given higher priority under the road maintenance programs irrespective of EIRR.
ii) Capacity development programs (equipment, methodology, staff capability, etc) for routine maintenance will also be implemented.
Based on the above conditions, the economic analysis was conducted for each case of the implementation program. As a result, the economic benefit, based on the VOC and TTC, derived from Case 3 of implementation plan and the master plan road network, is expected to be Rp. 338,082 Billion from 2012 to 2044 in total. It has the following economic indices:
Total project cost including maintenance cost : Rp. 52,735 Billion Accumulated benefit (Period: 2012 – 2044) : Rp. 338,082 Billion Economic internal rate of return (EIRR) : 21.5% Net Present Value : Rp. 6,475 Billion B/C ratio : 1.58
The above indices justify that the projects proposed in the master plan are economically viable and feasible. Table 13.6.4 shows the result of economic calculation for Case 3 in the implementation program.
13-27
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Table 13.6.4 Calculation of Economic Analysis (Case 3)
(Rp. Million) No. Year DevelopmentO & M Total Cost Benefit BALANCE Cost Routine Periodic (C) (B) (B-C) 2007 0 0 0 0 0 0 2008 963,360 108,602 297,870 1,369,832 0 -1,369,832 2009 1,201,860 155,059 345,810 1,702,729 0 -1,702,729 2010 1,389,060 155,858 913,830 2,458,748 0 -2,458,748 2011 1,752,435 126,900 43,590 1,922,925 589,242 -1,333,683 2012 1,852,560 159,857 482,070 2,494,487 745,025 -1,749,461 2013 1,721,700 151,779 2,356,740 4,230,219 1,120,014 -3,110,206 2014 1,719,293 159,857 450,105 2,329,254 1,178,561 -1,150,694 2015 977,070 141,480 487,830 1,606,380 4,512,141 2,905,761 2016 992,798 147,094 1,197,015 2,336,906 5,024,450 2,687,544 2017 1,064,798 150,548 43,590 1,258,935 5,453,383 4,194,448 2018 922,343 157,202 482,070 1,561,614 5,908,838 4,347,223 2019 746,528 155,993 2,356,740 3,259,260 6,495,267 3,236,007 2020 458,250 149,929 450,105 1,058,284 7,498,449 6,440,165 2021 434,850 159,857 487,830 1,082,537 8,026,431 6,943,894 2022 212,550 159,857 1,197,015 1,569,422 8,554,413 6,984,991 2023 297,000 157,984 43,590 498,574 9,082,395 8,583,821 2024 297,000 159,857 482,070 938,927 9,109,878 8,170,951 1 2025 0 159,857 2,356,740 2,516,597 9,503,145 6,986,548 2 2026 0 159,857 450,105 609,962 9,896,412 9,286,450 3 2027 0 159,857 487,830 647,687 10,289,679 9,641,992 4 2028 0 159,857 1,197,015 1,356,872 10,682,946 9,326,074 5 2029 0 159,857 43,590 203,447 11,076,213 10,872,766 6 2030 0 159,857 482,070 641,927 11,469,480 10,827,553 7 2031 0 159,857 2,356,740 2,516,597 11,862,747 9,346,150 8 2032 0 159,857 450,105 609,962 12,256,014 11,646,052 9 2033 0 159,857 487,830 647,687 12,649,281 12,001,594 10 2034 0 159,857 1,197,015 1,356,872 13,042,548 11,685,676 11 2035 0 159,857 43,590 203,447 13,435,815 13,232,368 12 2036 0 159,857 482,070 641,927 13,829,082 13,187,155 13 2037 0 159,857 2,356,740 2,516,597 14,222,349 11,705,752 14 2038 0 159,857 450,105 609,962 14,615,616 14,005,654 15 2039 0 159,857 487,830 647,687 15,008,883 14,361,196 16 2040 0 159,857 1,197,015 1,356,872 15,402,150 14,045,278 17 2041 0 159,857 43,590 203,447 15,795,417 15,591,970 18 2042 0 159,857 482,070 641,927 16,188,684 15,546,757 19 2043 0 159,857 2,356,740 2,516,597 16,581,951 14,065,354 20 2044 0 159,857 450,105 609,962 16,975,218 16,365,256 Total 17,003,453 5,754,848 29,976,765 52,735,065 338,082,117 285,347,052
Source * JICA Study Team EIRR 21.5% NPV (*): Rp. Million 6,475,266 B/C (*) 1.58 (*) Discount Rate=15%
13-28
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
CHAPTER 14 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
14.1 Conclusions
14.1.1 Regional Development
01 Needs of Regional Development: A review of the natural conditions as well as the demographic and economic situations of Sulawesi Island reveals that there remains much to be improved in the development of its economy and the enhancement of social welfare. For instance, the per-capita GRDP of the Sulawesi remains at of 60% of the national average. Such a gap should not increase in the planned period up to 2024. Likewise, regional development should not merely focus on economic activities and social welfare but include the protection of the environment since degradation has been observed in various parts of the island.
02 Development Objectives of Sulawesi: Sulawesi Island is expected to lead the development of Eastern Indonesia as touted at the central and regional planning levels. Because of its geographical location, human resources, and fundamentals for economic growth Sulawesi has enough potential to assume such a role. In order to spearhead the development of Eastern Indonesia and improve its, the overall objectives of the Sulawesi Island regional development should attain the following objectives i) balanced development of Sulawesi as the leading growth island in Eastern Indonesia and as a gateway to other Asian countries, and ii) sustainable development of an environment-friendly Sulawesi with less poverty and less potential of other risks.
03 Spatial Structure: The spatial development framework of Sulawesi Island has been discussed at the central and regional levels, as well as in the six provinces. The existing framework of the RTRWN (National Spatial Plan, Oct. 2007) is now part of the national activity centers of Makassar, Manado, Palu, Gorontalo, Luwuk and Kendari and the national strategic activity centers of Melonguane and Tahuna in North Sulawesi. Based on RTRWN, a spatial structure is discussed in the course of this Study from workshops and other discussions. It was also noted that Mamuju which has been designated as the regional activity center could be a national activity center. These national activity centers will be networked to form a cluster all over Sulawesi and it is further proposed that sub-clusters should be promoted in the northern, central, and southern economic linkages.
04 Development Framework: Social and economic development frameworks have been discussed and formulated. It has been forecasted that Sulawesi’s population would increase from 15.7 million in 2005 to 19.7 million by 2024, at the average annual growth rate of 1.20%. A corresponding increase in its labor force is estimated to reach nearly 3.5 million. The urban population would increase from 28.0% in 2005 to 35.8% by 2024. Inter-provincial migration is predicted, particularly immigration to the international/inter-regional centers and, to lesser degree, to the intra-regional centers. The economic framework has been set in terms of the GRDP by province and regency. The overall economic growth rate is set at 7.0% on an annual average (4.5% in the agriculture sector and 8.0% in the non-agriculture sector).
14-1
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
14.1.2 Transport Development
05 Modal Shares in Passenger Transport: For long distance travel of more than about 500 km (as the crow flies) air transport will become dominant in the future. Considering the progress of airport development and the emerging LCCs (low-cost carriers), the modal share of air transport will reach 50% to 100%. Road transport will share less than 50% in this distance range. The role of provincial buses will be limited, confined to around less than 30% of the road transport share. However, for short- to medium-distance travel of up to 500 km, road transport will play a major role with a share of 100% to 50%, although it decreases with distance. The share of public transport (provincial bus and small buses including the “petepete”) will be around 30% of the road transport share. The ferry mode will play an auxillary but important role for some specific OD pairs such as Makassar-Kendari route. The ferry mode is regarded as a part of the road network in this study, with its share sometimes reaching more than 50% of all person trips for some zone pairs.
06 Modal Shares in Cargo Transport: Maritime transport will be dominant also in the future for long-distance transport of more than about 500 km (as the crow flies). Currently, its modal share is more than 60% for major routes. In the future, this modal share is expected to decrease slightly due to the expected increase of high-value products. The remaining 40% share will be shouldered by road transport (i.e. trucks). For short- to medium-distance transport of up to 500 km, road transport will play a major role along with passenger transport with a share of 100 to 40%, although they decreases with distance. As mentioned earlier, the ferry is considered part of the road network. Although ferries carry trucks loaded with cargoes, its role in cargo transport is not so significant at present. In the future, however, its role can be strengthened if the ferry system is upgraded.
07 Road Network: The road network of Sulawesi will basically be composed of two-lane roads. This is because at present the traffic volume of inter-city roads is mostly below 3,000 PCUs. Sulawese needs an all-weather characteristics for its road network. Recently, huge efforts were made by several donors to maintain Sulawesi’s roads. Ideally, this should be continued in the future observing the principle of sustainable responsibility sharing among local governments. In order to realize the regional development plan of this study, strategic feeder roads are essential to link strategic points. Some existing roads may require additional improvements such as widening and pavement strengthening. Towns, villages, and other inhabited areas along the main roads of Sulawesi need traffic safety and environmental measures as local residents are potentially at risk by a rapid through traffic. Toll roads are proposed in Sulawesi, and the National Spatial Plan (Oct. 2007) included eight (8) freeways, i.e. Manado-Bitung, Manado-Tomohon, Maros-Mandai-Makassar, Makassar-Sungguminasa, Sungguminasa-Takalar, Limboto-Gorontalo, Ujung Pandang I and Makassar IV. Of these Ujung Pandang I and Makassar IV is either under operation or construction. The study covers Manado-Bitung, however, Manado-Tomohon and Limboto-Gorontalo were not included. Three (3) urban toll roads in the Mamminasata Metropolitan Area, were recommend to be urban arterials roads, not as freeways (see the Feasibility Study part of this study for details).
14-2
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
08 Ferry and Passenger Shipping Service: The demand for ferry and passenger ship services is still large. In 2005 inter-island passengers by air reached approximately 1.3 million, while passenger ships transported 1.9 million. However, intra-island travel by air transport has increased rapidly after the implementation of the “open-skies” policy, bringing down airfare rates to competitive levels. Ferry and passenger shipping services are both decreasing in terms of passenger number and cargo volume. Approximately 55% of intra-island passengers now travel by air, while the number of ferry passengers is decreasing. Second-hand ferry boats operating in Sulawesi are so superannuated that safe and on-time services become difficult. Safe and high-speed services will be necessary for the mode to recover and increase its demand.
09 Railway: The railway development plan for Sulawesi is indicated in the Sulawesi Island Spatial Plan. The two sections of Makassar - Parepare and Manado - Gorontalo are proposed as high priority projects, while other projects are given lower priority. The proposed routes are competing with the road projects that have been proposed already or are proposed in this study. According to the past studies, these railways were planned mainly for freight not for passengers,. Judging from the estimated volume of traffic demand, there are concerns that these railways would not be financially feasible (financial evaluation is not provided in the past studies) if implemented at present. These projects should thus be studied in detail in the near future when the capacity of existing transport infrastructure has been reached.
10 Air: With the “open skies” policy taking effect, it is expected that air will become the principal mode in long-distance passenger movement in Sulawesi as the economy further develops and incomes increase. At the same time, however, flight delays and a series of recent air mishaps have exposed poor safety standards of the aircrafts and this could have an adverse impact to the “open skies” policy. A safe and punctual operation is essential to increase inter- and intra-island air transport demand.
14.1.3 Road Development and Sulawesi Road Master Plan
11 Road Development Policy: This study aims to formulate the arterial road master plan for the Sulawesi Island to support its regional and economical development. The Study Team established eight (8) development policies taking into consideration the existing road condition and the forecasted traffic demand. Each road development policy is related to one of the economic development strategies.
12 Staged Application of New Road Design Standard: The GOI had issued “Government Road Regulation/Peraturaan Pemerintah Nomor No.34 Tahun 2006 Tentang Jalan (PP No. 34 Year 2006)” replacing PP No. 26 Year 1985. One of the major changes in the new regulation is roadway and carriageway widths. The Study Team judged that it was not financially and technically feasible to apply the new road regulation to all road projects. Therefore the Study Team recommends the following: 1) Primary arterial roads should be widened to the standard 7.0m carriageways by the target year of 2024, 2) Primary collector roads should be widened stage by stage to 7.0m based on
14-3
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
the present and future traffic demands, 3) Periodic and routine maintenance should be given first priority to sustain the national and provincial road assets.
13 Needs for Capacity Expansion, Pavement Improvement and Bridge Rehabilitation: The Study Team examined the existing roads to identify the needs of capacity expansions in the “Do-nothing” case (Zero Option) for 2024. The sections that need widening were identified based on the road standard recommended by the Study Team through an analysis on demand/supply relations using the present road capacity and projected future traffic volumes. As a result, it revealed that out of 12,100 km of arterial and collector roads, 4,700 km needs widening to 6-7m, and 7,350 km require reconstruction without widening. The pavement condition was evaluated based on the existing road inventory data. The study revealed that about 33% or 3,900 km of the total length of existing roads were in poor, or bad, condition and needs urgent rehabilitation. The study also revealed that more than 20% of existing bridges were under poor, bad, or impassable conditions, and likewise needed urgent repairs.
14 Sulawesi Road Master Plan: The Sulawesi road master plan was established based on the improvement plan of existing roads in terms of capacity expansion, pavement improvement and bridge rehabilitation. By completing the master plan road network by 2024, the following benefits are expected:
i) A harmonized economic development in Sulawesi would be expected through the strengthening of economic linkages between the six provinces due to the completion of Trans-Sulawesi Road which will feature a high all weather standard.
ii) Improvement of basic human needs as well as poverty alleviation would be expected in the rural areas and isolated islands through the strengthening of the road network system and the completion of missing links.
iii) Development of processing industries utilizing potential resources in Sulawesi would be expected as a result of the increase in accessibility to potential areas.
iv) The natural environment and isolated cultural communities would be properly protected by the road development with due consideration to proper environmental protection.
v) The increase in environmental loads in Sulawesi would be minimized with the incorporation of energy-saving transport ferry services in the road network system (nautical highway).
15 Future Traffic Demand Forecasts: The distribution of traffic volumes are concentrated around the major cities such as Makassar, Manado, Palu and Kendari. Although in Makassar traffic current traffic congestion is only confined around the city by 2024 it will spread to a wider area such as Parepare, Majene, Palopo and Masamba. In other areas, however, traffic congestion will not be serious except for Manado and its vicinities.
14-4
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
16 Preliminary Engineering Study: The preliminary engineering study was conducted to estimate rough improvement costs as well as to determine priorities for project implementation. The road network is divided into 19 packages with proper consideration of the unique characteristics of the Trans Sulawesi Road as well as other existing roads. Unit costs for the improvement and maintenance works were estimated with refererences to similar projects recently implemented in Sulawesi. As a result, total investment cost was estimated at Rp. 35,200 billion. Of this amount the national roads, including arterial and collector K-1 roads, accounts for Rp. 23,770 Billion while the provincial roads accounts for Rp. 11,430 billion.
17 Project Evaluation: Economic evaluation was conducted to prioritize the proposed 19 projects and as a factor for project evaluation. The study revealed that the projects located on the West-South Corridor (TS-1 group), West-North corridor (TS-2 group) and Central-South corridor (TS-3 group) have high EIRRs of more than 15%, except for the TS-2-1. On the other hand, the projects located on the Central-North corridor (TS-4 group) and East corridor (TS-5 group) have a lower EIRR of less than 15%.
18 Implementation program: The implementation program has been prepared taking into consideration the cost requirement, result of prioritization and fund availability.
19 Prospect on Road Budget: In latter years, the road budgets have recovered rapidly to the budget scale of 1990's. However, it is not realistic to assume that the road budgets would increase continuously for a long term. Therefore, the Study Team considers that the road development budget will remain at present levels for the time being until 2024, which is the end of the long term. In other words, the road development budget will decrease according to the progress of the implementation of the improvement projects, but the maintenance budget will increase in tandem with the increase in improved road lengths. The total available budget is estimated at Rp. 35,400 Billion; Rp. 30,890 Billion for central government (national) and Rp. 4,500 Billion for provinces.
20 Road Investment Plan: The Study Team examined three alternative investment plans, namely: Case 1: Equal allocation type, Case 2: Intermediate type, and Case 3: Early Investment type. Case 3 was recommended due to the following reasons: 1) The estimated annual budget and expenditure are balanced, 2) Road improvement is realized earlier, and 3) Effects on regional development would be larger.
However, it was found that the estimated budget for development and maintenance for provincial road somewhat falls short in all the periods, while the national road budget seems sufficient. Financial support to the provincial government will be necessary to realize the proposed improvement of the provincial roads.
21 Implementation Program: Implementation program was prepared based on the prioritization of projects as well as the road investment plans. In making the implementation plan, the Study Team considered the following factors: 1) All improvement projects being implemented or committed by international funding agencies and domestic funds, such as EINRIP by AusAID
14-5
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
and Road Improvement by Multi Year Contact (2007-2009) by Bina Marga, should be completed in the short-term plan (2008 -2014), and 2) “Urgent bridge repair program” should be implemented in the short-term plan.
22 Economic Analysis in the Master Plan: As a result of the economic analysis for implementing Case 3, it was recognized that the project is economically feasible and viable with a high economic EIRR at 21.5%, a B/C ratio at 1.58 and an NPV at Rp. 6,475 Billion.
14.1.4 Environmental Considerations
23 Results of the SEA analysis: As a result of the multi-criteria Analysis under the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), the road network improvement, including the ferry improvement “Option 3” was selected as the best solution for the Master Plan. Since “Option 3” focuses on realignment, upgrading, rehabilitation, strengthening, and maintenance associated with some strategically important new projects together with the improvement of accessibility through marine transport which is more environmentally friendly than the road network development only (Option 2). Also, negative impacts on the global and local environment would be relatively smaller than “Option 2”. “Option 3” is a road improvement plan which includes an additional nautical highway concept resulting to a wholistic approach of improvement of accessibility by marine transport, reduction in energy consumptions and the decrease in emissions per traffic volume which is relatively lower than “Option 2”.
14.1.5 Rural Road Development Plan and Asbuton Use
24 Local Road Study: The arterial roads study subjected national and provincial roads. However, a study on local roads (regency and city roads) was proposed at the workshops and seminars. JICA accepted the proposal since improvement of local roads is also important for support of regional development. The Study Team has conducted a supplemental survey for local road development planning and use of natural asphalt produced in Buton Island as pavement materials for local roads.
25 Issues of Local Roads: The road network in Indonesia is comprised of national, provincial, local and other roads. The total length of national and provincial roads is 12,920 km in Sulawesi. The total length of local roads (regency and city roads) is 43,860 km, which is approximately 3 times of the national and provincial roads. As high poverty areas are located in isolated inland and island areas, local roads rehabilitation (betterment and periodic maintenance) is very important for support of regional economy by improving transport efficiency for agricultural inputs and outputs. The condition of local roads is worse and asphalt pavement ratio is lower than the national and provincial roads. A large part of the bridges on local roads are wooden bridges of bad condition and required urgent replacement. As the road budgets for most of the local governments are insufficient, support by the central government is necessary. Capacity development is also required for road asset management, planning, implementation and maintenance.
14-6
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
26 Road Rehabilitation Targets and Investment Cost: The Study Team has established two road development and rehabilitation targets for short term (2010-2014), medium term (2015-2019) and long term (2020-2024) on road condition and asphalt paved road length. The good conditioned roads will be increased from 56% to 85% by 2024. The asphalt paved road will be increased from 41% to 70% by 2024. A total of 6,000 km of road will be either upgraded from the current district road to regency road or constructed new. The total regency/city roads will become 50,000 km by 2024. The required total investment cost is estimated at Rp 20,270 billion including routine maintenance.
27 Natural Asphalt (Asbuton): Amount of the Asbuton deposit in Buton Island is estimated at 660 million tons and this is equivalent to 170 million tons of oil asphalt (bitumen). Approximately 500,000 of Asbuton was produced per year in the middle of 1980s and used for pavement through the nation. However, production was reduced in the 1990s due to its higher price compared with oil asphalt and technical problems (durability). However, oil asphalt price has substantially increased in line with the crude oil price increase as asphalt is by-product in the oil refinery processing. Indonesia imported about 600,000 tons of asphalt and the GOI intends to use Asbuton for substituting the imported asphalt. While, new technology has been developed to secure durability of Asbuton pavement.
14-7
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
14.2 Recommendations
14.2.1 Regional Development
01 Direction of Industrial Development: The agricultural sector should focus on the further enhancement of productivity of any crops as the expansion of available lands is limited. Particularly, crops for product processing should be strategically promoted in addition to the enhancement of productivity of the staple food. Industrial development should focus on the agro-processing industries in order to enhance value-added in Sulawesi and secure employments especially for the younger generations who would flow out from the rural villages in the course of the planned period. Industries should be located in the growth poles and connected to the surrounding urban and rural areas. Trade should also be promoted more aggressively for exports of processed products, particularly to the ASEAN and BRIC countries. Transfer trade and inter-regional trade should also be promoted as a center for development of Eastern Indonesia.
02 Role of Energy Resource Development: Sulawesi could play two roles in the energy resource development of Indonesia. Firstly, Sulawesi should become one of the energy resource producer on the basis of its natural gas and oil production in the Central Province, especially in Luwuk. Moreover, bio-energy development such as bio-diesel fuel (BDF) from coconuts and/or Jatropha has a high potential of contributing to the energy problems and climate change issues. Secondarily, Sulawesi should be a support center for the energy exploitation in eastern Indonesia through its geographical and sociological advantages in the region. Ample resources of labor forces, food, and construction materials in Sulawesi are prerequisite for the energy development in Kalimantan and Papua, wherein these resources are limited.
03 Necessity of Cluster Development: For regional development as well as industrial and trade development, clusters should be formed not only at the provincial level but also at the regional and island levels. Some examples of clusters have been discussed in the course of this study, including a cacao-based cluster, fruit-based cluster and bio-diesel fuel (BDF) clusters. Special attention has been paid to the BDF clusters, as they would promote linkages among the agricultural and industrial sectors as well as contribute to the reduction of pollutant emission that would otherwise increase in Sulawesi.
04 Infrastructure Development for Growth and Poverty Reduction: For development of growth poles and their network over the island, as well as the development of industries and trades, and for poverty eradication in the mountainous rural areas and remote islands, the improvements in infrastructure are prerequisites. Transportation should be improved to strengthen networking over Sulawesi and to enhance economic activities as well as social communication including welfare. In addition, the systems for energy supply and electric power supply should be secured and their environmental loads should be minimized.
05 Necessity of Institutional Enhancement: By activating the economy and improving the
14-8
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
infrastructure, it appears that the economic framework laid down for Sulawesi would be attainable though it should be further verified through the proper planning of respective development programs and projects. It should be additionally noted that the institutional settings for regional development should be further strengthened along with capacity development at all levels of the public and private sectors. It is therefore recommended that the proposed regional development would be implemented together with capacity development, inclusive of institutional building.
06 Utilization of Master Plan Study: The regional development as proposed in this study has been planned to show directions, frameworks and strategies for the development of Sulawesi Island. It could be sufficient for the formulation of an arterial road network over the island, as well as to guide any other regional development. It is expected that the proposed direction and framework would be referred to in the formulation of the provincial-level development plans, as well as in the inter-regional coordination for the development goals.
07 Necessity of Master Plan Review: Since the economic and other environments surrounding Sulawesi would change, it is recommended that the framework and strategy should be reviewed and updated after fiver years, or after the implementation of the short-term plan period. The development programs and projects under the mid-term plan should be formulated on the basis of the updated framework.
14.2.2 Transport Development
08 Consideration on International Linkage: The international linkage proposed in the concept of BIMP-EAGA should be strengthened by improving air and shipping services between Northern Sulawesi (Manado and Gorontalo) and Mindanao (Davao and General Santos) of the Philippines. The islands located in between these two points, such as Sangihe and Talaud, have large potentials for trade, tourism and fishery. The arterial road network of Sulawesi should be considered as an integral part of the global transport network such as Asian/ASEAN Highways. The design standard of arterial roads in Sulawesi should desirably be in accordance with the criteria of the ASIAN and ASEAN Highways considering its possible expansion in the future.
09 Construction of All-weather Stable Road Network: The road network master plan proposed in this study should basically be more of a road improvement plan with a focus on widening, realignment, rehabilitation, strengthening and maintenance coupled with some new projects with strategic importance. The road should be all-weather, ensuring accessibility throughout the year even for isolated areas and islands. The durability of the roads, in terms of axle loads should also be considered based on the recommendation of the HLRIP study.
10 Nautical Highway (Upgraded Ferry Service): Energy-saving maritime transport should be effectively incorporated in the road network considering the long winding coastlines. Port facilities should be improved together with the feeder roads to/from the ports. In addition, an inter-peninsula nautical highway using high-speed low-cost RoRo ships should be developed to link the east coast of Sulawesi; Makassar - Bajoe(Siwa)=Kolaka - Kendari=Luwuk - Pagimana=Gorontalo - Manado.
14-9
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Although the traffic volume on the ferries is not large yet, this will grow if the nautical highway is operated more efficiently using modern ships and upgraded facilities. Alternative land routes should be developed at the same time for the nautical highway because the latter nearly becomes unnavigable during the rainy season.
11 Airport Development: Long- and medium-distance passenger travel by air will grow rapidly because of the lowering airfares due to the proliferation of LCCs (low-cost carriers). Airport development should be promoted as proposed in the National Spatial Plan; Hasanuddin and Sam Ratulangi (primary), Djalaludin, Mutiara and Wolter Monginsidi (secondary), and Tanpa Padang, Melonguane and Bubung (tertiary).
12 Railway Projects: Some railway projects have been proposed for Sulawesi. However, the estimated traffic demand for these railways is generally small, and their financial viability is quite doubtful due to the absence of financial analyses in past studies. Since inter-city roads currently have enough capacity to absorb increasing traffic demands, the implementation of railway projects should better be studied in the future when road capacities has been met.
14.2.3 Road Development and Sulawesi Road Master Plan
13 Necessity of Economic Evaluation Review: Economic evaluation in this study was conducted in order to determine the priorities of the proposed projects. Therefore, it was done under the same conditions using future estimated traffic volumes by 2024. The Study Team advises that the feasibility of each project in terms of EIRR, B/C etc. should be evaluated again to justify project viability at the time when the project is being implemented.
14 Control of Overloading Vehicles: Sustainability of road facilities after development or betterment is one of the most important issues. Overloaded vehicles are one of the critical issues which significantly shortens pavement life. In addition to improvement measures such as stricter enforcement on axle load and gross weight, additional installation of weighing stations at strategic points, strengthening of education for vehicle owners and drivers, and the introduction of MST 10 ton routes (Class II roads) for the heavy loaded routes, the Study Team recommends the introduction of a computer-assisted system at weighing stations. When heavy vehicles pass on a weigh bridges, their gross weight is transmitted to a computer and the magnitude of overloading and the corresponding fines are instantly recorded and automatically shown on an electrical board. This tool will bring an effective impact for overloading controls.
15 Introduction of Road Fund: Insufficient maintenance budget allocation for road maintenance, especially during budgetary constraints, has caused serious road deterioration. Both development and maintenance budget for the national road has increased substantially in 2006 – 2008 reflecting the change in the central administration policy compared with the 2004 – 2005 budgets. However, insufficient budget is still the most critical issue for both provincial and regency roads. A total amount of Rp 374 - 562 billion, which is 1.0%-1.5% of the road asset values, is required annually for the routine maintenance of national, provincial and regency roads in Sulawesi.
14-10
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
In order to overcome budget shortages, utilizing the road fund is one of the instruments that can generally be used as the main source of financing road maintenance and other road expenditures
Since the 1950s, this approach has been used in the USA, Japan, and New Zealand and is the most economical and efficient collection method since it allows the collection of levies at refineries or ports of import. In recent years, the road fund approach has been applied in many developing countries (more than 30 countries), and several of these countries have successfully collected 90% of the required fund for road maintenance. Some of the road fund could be used for road safety, overload controls, road asset management activities, etc.
16 Allocation of Road Budget to Provincial Roads: Budgetary insufficiency is a critical issue in maintaining road facilities and sustaining the road function, especially for the provincial and kabupaten roads. Although there are several potential funding sources which could be utilized for development and maintenance of these roads, for a realistic and reliable funding source the Study Team suggests the utilization of external soft loan for the development of provincial road based on on-grant mechanisms with on-grant agreements between the MOF and the grant receiver (Province) and the Ministry of Public Works as the executing agency of the loan program. The Study Team is convinced that this funding method is the best suitable source for making up the lack of provincial budgets not only for road development but also for periodic/routine maintenance of roads..
17 Support for Implementation of Existing Priority Development Program: The master plan study should support the realization of existing priority development program, especially the “Northeastern Indonesia Regional Development Program” which is being promoted in cooperation with both the Indonesian and Japanese governments. The road development plans recommended in this program should be included in the implementation program of this study. The Study Team recommends, among others, the early implementation of the “Trans Sulawesi Mamminasata Road (Maros-Takalar) since the project was confirmed to be economically feasible with a high EIRR and an Environmental Impact Assessment (AMDAL) was already approved by the Governor of South Sulawesi Province in September 2007.
18 Early Implementation of Poor Bridge Rehabilitation and Deteriorated Pavement: Although existing roads and bridges have been improved and rehabilitated in the past, many bridges still remain narrow and in poor condition. The reconstruction of these bridges is included as part of the betterment work in the master plan. However, the betterment of these roads in some sections belong to the medium- and long-term plans. But since potential collapses on major routes would have an adverse impact on local socio-economic activities, it is recommended that these bridges (identified as Grade IV “Bad” or Grade V ”Impassable” in addition to wooden bridges) should be reconstructed or replaced in the short-term plan, titled the “Urgent Bridge Repair Program”.
Rehabilitation of deteriorated pavements should also be implemented as soon as possible.
14-11
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
Pavement conditions classified as Class III “Poor” or Class IV “Bad” should be removed either through overlays or reconstructions in the short-term plan as much as possible.
14.2.4 Environmental Considerations
19 Environmental Mitigation Measures under the SEA analysis: The SEA should include measures to mitigate negative environmental impacts brought about by the road network improvement plan. A couple of mitigation measures that will reduce CO2 volumes of the total road network in Sulawesi Island are recommended. Those measures should include the coverage and the promotion of bio-fuels, the minimization of the affected forest areas by reforestation projects, and the diversion of other traffic measures. The reduction in the CO2 volume will also help in fighting global warming.
14.2.5 Rural Road Development Plan and Asbuton Utilization
20 Integrated Road Projects and Programs including Local Roads: Integrated road projects and programs should be implemented for national, provincial and local roads for attaining synergy effects on regional development. The programs should include capacity development in management, planning, execution and maintenance. The ongoing EIRTP will be a project scheme to be referred with some improvement.
21 Support by Central Government: The financial basis of regional governments is weak and available own budget is limited. The Study Team recommends that the central government should support regional governments for attaining the road rehabilitation targets set planned in this study while the regional governments should bear part of the cost for retaining ownership.
22 Development and Use of Natural Asphalt (Asbuton): The development of Asbuton will make contribution to both national and regional economy. The central government should keep a stable policy on the use of Asbuton to assure the domestic demand. While, public financial assistance should be extended for capacity development of the state owned company for renewing the old facilities of Asbuton production, transport, stocking and shipment. Development of bitumen extraction technology from Asbuton and special plant is necessary for exporting the refined Asbuton to overseas markets. GOI should make appropriate policies and laws for inducing foreign investments as Asbuton refinery project requires a large amount of cost for plant development, installation and operation.
14.2.6 Recommended Action Plan for Realization of the Project
23 Recommended Action Plan for Project Realization: In order to realize the projects proposed in the master plan, the Study Team recommends that the Indonesian government should take an appropriate action to arrange the financial assistance of Japan as shown below, and/or other donor agencies in addition to an Indonesian budget:
i) In case of Yen Loan: This aid is suitable for implementing large scale projects with an
14-12
Final Report The Study on Arterial Road Network Development Plan for Sulawesi Island and Feasibility Study on Priority Arterial Road Development for South Sulawesi Province March 2008
EIRR of more than 15%. It is necessary to conduct a SAPROF to determine the scope of work, selection of subjected road links, schedule and amount of loan, etc, before an appraisal of the Yen loan. The Study Team therefore recommends that the government of Indonesia requests the Japanese government for the implementation of the SAPROF immediately after completion of this Master Plan Study. It is advised that the priority projects derived form the feasibility study on Priority Arterial Roads for South Sulawesi Province should be included in the scope of this loan. The Study team also advises that the road improvement plan should include not only national and provincial roads but also the kabpaten roads in order to enhance the regional development. The project should also include capacity development of regional governments and technical cooperation programs.
ii) In case of Japanese Grant: This aid is suitable for implementing a project with an EIRR of less than 15% if the project contributes to basic human needs of the local people. The Study Team advises the application of this scheme for implementing the “Urgent bridge repair program” and recommends that the Indonesian government take the necessary actions to the Japanese government as soon as possible.
14-13