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Riding the Wave of Great Expectations

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Riding the Wave of Great Expectations #2 (144) February 2020 Ukraine’s economic Russian hybrid warfare New identity for national Zelenskiy as a reflection outlook for 2020 in Ukraine museums and art centers of Ukrainian society RIDING THE WAVE OF GREAT EXPECTATIONS WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION CONTENTS 3 BRIEFING 30 The coming crisis 4 Courtesy visits On the possible economic Why high-ranking foreign officials’ visits to downturn in 2020 Kyiv don’t contribute to the strengthening SOCIETY of Ukrainian diplomacy 32 Feeling good POLITICS When public expectations will turn 7 Vladimir Putin, master of lawfare against the President Mark Voyger on the Russian master of 34 Portrait in dirty grey war and law On the New Year in occupied Donbas 8 The post-democratic president 36 The battle of the narratives What kind of image has Volodymyr Why western media often repeats Zelenskiy created for himself abroad? propaganda from Russia 10 Somewhere in the middle 38 Ze Nation What is it that voters in free Donbas like On Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a surprising about Zelenskiy? reflection of Ukrainian society FOCUS NEIGHBORS 12 Energy policy: Stupidity or crime What dangerous consequences for the 40 Kari Liuhto: “Half of all Russian foreign country may the new course in energy investments landed in offshores” policy have? Professor and director of the Pan-European Institute at Turku School 16 Old and new risks of Economics on Russian economic war What are the threats facing Ukraine’s against Europe, toxic investments, economy in 2020? and nature of Russian oligarchs 20 The march of dis-integration On the change of rhetoric about returning 42 Stay away to Ukraine in the self-proclaimed republics Why Ukraine’s economy performs better in occupied Donbas than the Russian economy after 2013 despite resistance to aggression 22 New Moscowphiles at the door How disappointment in Zelenskiy will 44 Grace of the empire help pro-Russian forces and how they are What is Ukraine’s place in the rhetoric evolving of Russian media and how to decipher their hidden messages? 24 The potential winter unfreezing of the Donbas CULTURE & ARTS On the strategic winners and losers at 48 From art space to cultural brand Normandy On the new trends for Ukrainian ECONOMICS museums and art centers 27 Down from the peaks 50 The months of rock, Crystal and Kazka What risks does the banking system face The Ukrainian Week offers a selection today? of events to visit in February and March E-mail [email protected] www.ukrainianweek.com Tel. (044) 351-13-00 The Ukrainian Week #2 (144) February 2020 Office address Kyiv, Ukraine, 36A, vul. Bohdana Khmelnytskoho, apt. 3 Founder ECEM Media GmbH. Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Print run 15 000. Free distribution Address Austria, Am Gestade, 1, 1010 Vienna Our partner State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Chief Editor Dmytro Krapyvenko Editors Max Nestelieiev, Lidia Wolanskyj Courtesy visits Khrystyna Vovchuk НА ЧАСІ When high-ranking foreign officials visit Ukraine, it’s often interpreted as the result of Kyiv’s diplo- matic efforts. Of course, it’s not always that. Some- times foreign guests show up to resolve internal is- sues back home and this can simply mean that Ukraine is losing its identity in the international UNIAN PHOTO: community. THE UKRAINIAN WEEK | #2 (144) February 2020 6 BRIEFING | In the last while, Ukraine has been the focus of American at- stan, and Tashkent. His visit to Belarus is especially significant as tention over the scandal that arose around Donald Trump’s July Pompeo arrived just as relations with Russia were growing tense: 25 phone call to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The impeach- anschluss had failed and so Russia cut of oil deliveries to its neigh- ment of the US president ended with an acquittal, but Zelenskiy’s bor. Aliaksandr Lukashenka was ramping up his pro-western repeated insistence that events in the US were not affecting the rhetoric and during Pompeo’s visit he even announced that the “warm and friendly relations between the two countries,” suggests chill in relations between Minsk and Washington was over. only that the Office of Ukraine’s President seems not responding Pompeo’s tour in Central Asia also had its reasons. There, the properly to serious challenges. US Secretary brought up the threat of China. However, it was In fact, SecState Mike Pompeo’s January 31 meeting with Russia that paid the most attention to Pompeo’s visit: pro-Krem- Zelenskiy in Kyiv demonstrated, yet again, that the White lin media followed the time-honored soviet tradition of dismiss- House was primarily interested in resolving domestic issues, as ing the US official as a “geopolitical raider.” But that means that Pompeo’s visit was preceded by another Ukraine-related scandal. at least one of the goals – to demonstrate to Russia that the post- Prior to coming to Ukraine, the US Secretary of State had made soviet region was not solely Moscow’s sphere of influence – was an unambiguous statement in an interview with National Public reached. Radio, asking the journalist: “Do you really think Americans care Meanwhile, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan began his about Ukraine?” visit to Kyiv by greeting the guard of honor with the cry, “Slava Ukraini!” More emotional observers saw this as a tectonic geopo- litical shift. In fact, it’s early to be overjoyed. The Turkish leader’s ZELENSKIY’S OFT-REPEATED READINESS TO FLY TO WASHINGTON TO MEET compliment was primarily in response to Russia’s recent attacks WITH TRUMP “EVEN TOMORROW” MAY BE A NICE GESTURE BUT IT’S against the Syrian city of Idlib. As a result of intense artillery fire UNLIKELY TO BE APPRECIATED IN WASHINGTON AND AN OFFICIAL from government troops and Russian air support, Assad’s forces INVITATION IS UNLIKELY TO BE FORTHCOMING killed six Turkish soldiers. In response, Turkey attacked Syrian forces and warned Russia against further interference. That does not mean that anyone should expect the current The Washington Post noted that Pompeo’s main objective as confrontation in Syria to seriously damage relations between head of the American diplomatic agency was to promote US in- Moscow and Ankara in the long run. In the last few years, neither terests and when statements in the press back home contradicted Russia’s dropping of a visa-free regime after the shooting down his statements abroad, Washington lost. Later on, at their joint of its SU-24 bomber, nor its blockade of sea traffic have spoiled press briefing in Kyiv, Pompeo exchanged standard phrases with cooperation between Turkey and Russia. On the contrary Ankara Zelenskiy about bilateral cooperation, avoiding all controversial has managed to sign an agreement with Moscow to buy Zenit matters. Other than pro forma messages from the Trump Admin- S-400 missile systems, despite warnings from the US, to launch istration, Pompeo offered no news about a long-awaited White the Turkstream pipeline, and to issue joint calls for a ceasefire in House visit by Ukraine’s head of state. Nor was there any word Libya. about the appointment of a proper ambassador to Kyiv, where the Nevertheless, being the temporary third party between An- US ambassadorship has been vacant since May 2019, when Ma- kara and Moscow could be a chance for Ukraine to strengthen its rie Yovanovitch was recalled and the embassy is run by a chargé diplomatic position towards the aggressor. Zelenskiy expressed d’affaires, or about a replacement US Special Representative to his condolences over the shooting of Turkish troops in Syria with Ukraine. Indeed, after Kurt Volker’s resignation, there has not an oblique reference to the war in the Donbas. On its part, Kyiv been any serious discussion about whether this position will even hopes for Ankara’s assistance in the release of Ukrainian citizens be kept. being held illegally by the Russian Federation, especially Crime- Zelenskiy’s oft-repeated readiness to fly to Washington to an Tatars. Turkey needs to be abreast of information about new meet with Trump “even tomorrow” may be a nice gesture but it’s lists for exchanges, which are now being put together by the Tri- unlikely to be appreciated in Washington and an official invitation lateral Contact Group. One positive outcome of the visit was an is unlikely to be forthcoming. According to the The Washington agreement that Turkey would provide financial assistance to the Post, the White House was trying to take advantage of Pompeo’s Ukrainian Armed Forces and housing for 500 families of Crimean visit to Kyiv as a response to criticism from the Democratic Party Tatars. that Trump was exploiting Ukraine for personal political gain, Nor did President Erdogan forget to remind Zelenskiy of his and to make it seem like relations between the two countries re- own domestic needs, requesting that Kyiv join the battle against main strong. FETÖ, known as the Gülen Movement and as Hizmet by its fol- Pompeo did mention to Zelenskiy the importance of expand- lowers, but deemed a terrorist organization by Ankara. The Turk- ing the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine, and indeed the ish leader persists in accusing the members of this movement of US SecState has met twice with OCU Metropolitan Epiphanius. attempting a military coup in 2016. It’s hard to know just how Back in October, Pompeo announced that the US would defend familiar Zelenskiy might be or not be about the Gülen movement, the right to freedom of confession, with reference to Russia’s at- but he immediately agreed to hand over the information about tempts to influence Ukraine. “Russia should never get in the way Gülen schools given to him by Erdogan to the SBU.
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