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Baku Dialoguesbaku Dialogues Policy Perspectives on the Silk Road Region BAKU DIALOGUESBAKU DIALOGUES POLICY PERSPECTIVES ON THE SILK ROAD REGION Vol. 4 | No. 2 | Winter 2020-2021 The Second Karabakh War: Initial Thoughts & Reflections A Most Significant Geopolitical Development Reassessing U.S.-Azerbaijani Relations Matthew Bryza Robert F. Cekuta W h i l e Yo u W e r e S l e e p i n g Special, Exceptional, and Privileged Alper Coşkun Ayça Ergun Understanding Armenian Narratives Three Decades of Missed Opportunities Rovshan Ibrahimov & Murad Muradov Lala Jumayeva The Caspian Sea as Battleground James M. Dorsey Appraising the Present, Forecasting the Future Eurasia 2040 S. Enders Wimbush Right or Left Economic Recovery? Farid Shafiyev Universal Dead-end in a Global Wormhole Andrey Bystritskiy Between Russia & China: Perspectives on the Silk Road Region Grand Strategy Along the Silk Road Central Asia and the Belt and Road Initiative Gregory Gleason Djoomart Otorbaev Russia and China’s Digital Silk Road Navigating the Great Powers Jeff Schubert Rachael M. Rudolph Profile in Leadership Shev’s Way and the History of Europe Tedo Japaridze Baku Dialogues Interview A Higher Level of Openness and Engagement: Uzbekistan’s New Foreign Policy Abdulaziz Kamilov 1 Vol. 4 | No. 2 | Winter 2020-2021 ISSN Print: 2709-1848 ISSN Online: 2709-1856 BAKU DIALOGUES BAKU DIALOGUESBAKU DIALOGUES POLICY PERSPECTIVES ON THE SILK ROAD REGION Vol. 4 | No. 2 | Winter 2020-2021 The Second Karabakh War: Initial Thoughts & Reflections A Most Significant Geopolitical Development Reassessing U.S.-Azerbaijani Relations Matthew Bryza Robert F. Cekuta W h i l e Yo u W e r e S l e e p i n g Special, Exceptional, and Privileged Alper Coşkun Ayça Ergun Understanding Armenian Narratives Three Decades of Missed Opportunities Rovshan Ibrahimov & Murad Muradov Lala Jumayeva The Caspian Sea as Battleground James M. Dorsey Appraising the Present, Forecasting the Future Eurasia 2040 S. Enders Wimbush Right or Left Economic Recovery? Farid Shafiyev Universal Dead-end in a Global Wormhole Andrey Bystritskiy Between Russia & China: Perspectives on the Silk Road Region Grand Strategy Along the Silk Road Central Asia and the Belt and Road Initiative Gregory Gleason Djoomart Otorbaev Russia and China’s Digital Silk Road Navigating the Great Powers Jeff Schubert Rachael M. Rudolph Profile in Leadership Shev’s Way and the History of Europe Tedo Japaridze Baku Dialogues Interview A Higher Level of Openness and Engagement: Uzbekistan’s New Foreign Policy Abdulaziz Kamilov Vol. 4 | No. 2 | Winter 2020-2021 2 3 Vol. 4 | No. 2 | Winter 2020-2021 BAKU DIALOGUES BAKU DIALOGUESBAKU DIALOGUES POLICY PERSPECTIVES ON THE SILK ROAD REGION bakudialogues.ada.edu.az Published by ADA University Baku, Azerbaijan Under the editorial direction of Mr. Fariz Ismailzade, Editor-in-Chief Executive Vice Rector, ADA University In conjunction with Mr. Damjan Krnjević Mišković, Senior Editorial Consultant Director of Policy Research and Publications, ADA University And through the counsel of the Editorial Advisory Council of Baku Dialogues H.E. Dr. Hafiz Pashayev, chairperson Mr. Nasimi Aghayev H.E. Mr. Hikmet Çetin H.E. Mr. Tedo Japaridze Prof. Dr. Jeffrey D. Sachs H.E. Mr. Sodik Safayev Prof. Dr. Samad Seyidov Prof. Dr. S. Frederick Starr Mr. S. Enders Wimbush Mr. Fikrat Malikov, Layout and Print Production Creative Services Manager, ADA University Mrs. Kamilla Zeynalova, Marketing, Internet, and Social Media Development Marketing Manager, ADA University Please direct all inquiries, submissions, and proposals via email to [email protected]. Submission guidelines are available on the Baku Dialogues website: bakudialogues.ada.edu.az. The content of Baku Dialogues is copyrighted by its publisher. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2020 ADA University. No part of this publication may be reproduced, hosted, or distributed, in whole or in part, in any form or by any means, without prior written permission from Baku Dialogues. To seek permission, please send an email to [email protected]. Baku Dialogues is an independent policy journal. The content of each issue of the journal (e.g. essays, interviews, profiles, etc.) thus does not represent any institutional viewpoint. The analyses provided and viewpoints expressed by the authors featured in Baku Dialogues do not necessarily reflect those of its publisher, editors, consultants, Editorial Advisory Council members, and anyone else affiliated with ADA University orBaku Dialogues. Our sole acceptance of Vol. 4 | No. 2 | Winter 2020-2021 4 responsibility is the provision of a forum dedicated5 to intellectualVol. discussion 4 | No. 2 |and Winter debate. 2020-2021 BAKU DIALOGUES Table of ContentsBAKU DIALOGUES Vol. 4 | No. 2 | Winter 2020-2021 Essays 8 A Most Significant Geopolitical Development Matthew Bryza 22 Reassessing U.S.-Azerbaijani Relations Robert F. Cekuta 40 While You Were Sleeping Alper Coşkun 52 Special, Exceptional, and Privileged Ayça Ergun 66 Understanding Armenian Narratives Rovshan Ibrahimov and Murad Muradov 82 Three Decades of Missed Opportunities Lala Jumayeva 102 The Caspian Sea as Battleground James M. Dorsey 112 Eurasia 2040 S. Enders Wimbush 124 Right or Left Economic Recovery? Farid Shafiyev 132 Universal Dead-end in a Global Wormhole Andrey Bystritskiy 144 Grand Strategy Along the Silk Road Gregory Gleason 162 Central Asia and the Belt and Road Initiative Djoomart Otorbaev 174 Russia and China’s Digital Silk Road Jeff Schubert 186 Navigating the Great Powers Rachael M. Rudolph Profile in Leadership 204 Shev’s Way and the History of Europe Tedo Japaridze Interview 224 A Higher Level of Openness and Engagement: Uzbekistan’s New Foreign Policy Vol. 4 | No. 2 | Winter 2020-2021 6 Abdulaziz Kamilov 7 Vol. 4 | No. 2 | Winter 2020-2021 BAKU DIALOGUES BAKU DIALOGUES Nagorno-Karabakh and occupied Karabakh is left to be determined A Most Significant by Armenia to Azerbaijan’s control; in the future, with Armenians im- an interim status for Nagorno-Kara- mediately able to claim the region bakh providing guarantees for secu- is no longer part of Azerbaijan and Geopolitical Development rity and self-governance; a corridor Azerbaijanis able to claim the oppo- linking Armenia to Nagorno-Kara- site. In this way, constructive ambi- Strategic Benefits and Strategic Focus bakh; future determination of the guity is used to enable agreement final legal status of Nagorno-Kara- on the above important elements bakh through a legally binding vote despite irreconcilable differences Matthew Bryza of Nagorno-Karabakh’s residents; between the two sides on final legal the right of all internally displaced status. persons and refugees to return to he November 10th, 2020, The trilateral agreement defines their former places of residence; Though not initially embraced by trilateral agreement signed a peace settlement in line with and international either Azerbaijan by Azerbaijani President the framework unofficially agreed security guarantees or Armenia, this IlhamT Aliyev, Armenian Prime Min- by the leaders of Armenia and that would include The trilateral agreement general approach ister Nikol Pashinyan, and Russian Azerbaijan over a decade ago, a peacekeeping op- could become the most was unofficially President Vladimir Putin could be- and thus stands a good chance to eration. significant geopoliticalaccepted by the come the most significant geopolit- hold. The so-called “Basic Princi- development in the South then-President ical development in the South Cau- ples” or “Madrid Principles” were The underlying of Armenia Serge casus since the collapse of the Soviet originally tabled by the American bargain was that Caucasus since the col- Sargsian and Pres- Union—perhaps even more than Russian, and French Co-chairs of Azerbaijan regains lapse of the Soviet Union. ident of Azerbaijan the establishment of the Baku-Tbili- the Minsk Group in November its seven occu- But it is not yet clear that Ilham Aliyev in si-Ceyhan oil and Baku-Tbilisi- 2007 at a meeting of OSCE foreign pied districts in key actors in the Trans- January 2009, fol- Erzurum natural gas pipelines. But it ministers in Madrid. exchange for se- atlantic community ap- lowing a year of is not yet clear that key actors in the curity guarantees fine-tuning by the Transatlantic community appreciate for the Armenian preciate this opportunity. Minsk Group Co- this opportunity, especially Wash- Land for Peace residents of Na- chairs. I personally ington and Paris, who along with gorno-Karabakh and a temporary witnessed their oral agreement in Moscow, comprise the Co-chairs of he Madrid Document con- legal status for Nagorno-Karabakh my capacity as the U.S. Co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, the sup- Tsists, inter alia, of the fol- other than being unambiguously the Minsk Group at the time. posedly impartial mediating body of lowing elements: the return of the part of Azerbaijan. The Madrid the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijani territories surrounding Document thus strikes a balance This “land for peace” formula among three key principles of remained the framework for ne- Matthew Bryza currently resides in Istanbul, where he runs a Turkish-Finnish en- the 1975 OSCE Helsinki Final gotiations in subsequent years, as vironmental solutions joint venture, serves on the Boards of energy companies based Act: territorial integrity of states; the Minsk Group strove to help the in Turkey and the UK, and is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He is a for- mer U.S. Co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, Director for Europe and Eurasia on the non-use and non-threat of force; leaders
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