On the Regression Model for Generalized Normal Distributions
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The Exponential Family 1 Definition
The Exponential Family David M. Blei Columbia University November 9, 2016 The exponential family is a class of densities (Brown, 1986). It encompasses many familiar forms of likelihoods, such as the Gaussian, Poisson, multinomial, and Bernoulli. It also encompasses their conjugate priors, such as the Gamma, Dirichlet, and beta. 1 Definition A probability density in the exponential family has this form p.x / h.x/ exp >t.x/ a./ ; (1) j D f g where is the natural parameter; t.x/ are sufficient statistics; h.x/ is the “base measure;” a./ is the log normalizer. Examples of exponential family distributions include Gaussian, gamma, Poisson, Bernoulli, multinomial, Markov models. Examples of distributions that are not in this family include student-t, mixtures, and hidden Markov models. (We are considering these families as distributions of data. The latent variables are implicitly marginalized out.) The statistic t.x/ is called sufficient because the probability as a function of only depends on x through t.x/. The exponential family has fundamental connections to the world of graphical models (Wainwright and Jordan, 2008). For our purposes, we’ll use exponential 1 families as components in directed graphical models, e.g., in the mixtures of Gaussians. The log normalizer ensures that the density integrates to 1, Z a./ log h.x/ exp >t.x/ d.x/ (2) D f g This is the negative logarithm of the normalizing constant. The function h.x/ can be a source of confusion. One way to interpret h.x/ is the (unnormalized) distribution of x when 0. It might involve statistics of x that D are not in t.x/, i.e., that do not vary with the natural parameter. -
A Skew Extension of the T-Distribution, with Applications
J. R. Statist. Soc. B (2003) 65, Part 1, pp. 159–174 A skew extension of the t-distribution, with applications M. C. Jones The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK and M. J. Faddy University of Birmingham, UK [Received March 2000. Final revision July 2002] Summary. A tractable skew t-distribution on the real line is proposed.This includes as a special case the symmetric t-distribution, and otherwise provides skew extensions thereof.The distribu- tion is potentially useful both for modelling data and in robustness studies. Properties of the new distribution are presented. Likelihood inference for the parameters of this skew t-distribution is developed. Application is made to two data modelling examples. Keywords: Beta distribution; Likelihood inference; Robustness; Skewness; Student’s t-distribution 1. Introduction Student’s t-distribution occurs frequently in statistics. Its usual derivation and use is as the sam- pling distribution of certain test statistics under normality, but increasingly the t-distribution is being used in both frequentist and Bayesian statistics as a heavy-tailed alternative to the nor- mal distribution when robustness to possible outliers is a concern. See Lange et al. (1989) and Gelman et al. (1995) and references therein. It will often be useful to consider a further alternative to the normal or t-distribution which is both heavy tailed and skew. To this end, we propose a family of distributions which includes the symmetric t-distributions as special cases, and also includes extensions of the t-distribution, still taking values on the whole real line, with non-zero skewness. Let a>0 and b>0be parameters. -
1. How Different Is the T Distribution from the Normal?
Statistics 101–106 Lecture 7 (20 October 98) c David Pollard Page 1 Read M&M §7.1 and §7.2, ignoring starred parts. Reread M&M §3.2. The eects of estimated variances on normal approximations. t-distributions. Comparison of two means: pooling of estimates of variances, or paired observations. In Lecture 6, when discussing comparison of two Binomial proportions, I was content to estimate unknown variances when calculating statistics that were to be treated as approximately normally distributed. You might have worried about the effect of variability of the estimate. W. S. Gosset (“Student”) considered a similar problem in a very famous 1908 paper, where the role of Student’s t-distribution was first recognized. Gosset discovered that the effect of estimated variances could be described exactly in a simplified problem where n independent observations X1,...,Xn are taken from (, ) = ( + ...+ )/ a normal√ distribution, N . The sample mean, X X1 Xn n has a N(, / n) distribution. The random variable X Z = √ / n 2 2 Phas a standard normal distribution. If we estimate by the sample variance, s = ( )2/( ) i Xi X n 1 , then the resulting statistic, X T = √ s/ n no longer has a normal distribution. It has a t-distribution on n 1 degrees of freedom. Remark. I have written T , instead of the t used by M&M page 505. I find it causes confusion that t refers to both the name of the statistic and the name of its distribution. As you will soon see, the estimation of the variance has the effect of spreading out the distribution a little beyond what it would be if were used. -
A New Parameter Estimator for the Generalized Pareto Distribution Under the Peaks Over Threshold Framework
mathematics Article A New Parameter Estimator for the Generalized Pareto Distribution under the Peaks over Threshold Framework Xu Zhao 1,*, Zhongxian Zhang 1, Weihu Cheng 1 and Pengyue Zhang 2 1 College of Applied Sciences, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China; [email protected] (Z.Z.); [email protected] (W.C.) 2 Department of Biomedical Informatics, College of Medicine, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 1 April 2019; Accepted: 30 April 2019 ; Published: 7 May 2019 Abstract: Techniques used to analyze exceedances over a high threshold are in great demand for research in economics, environmental science, and other fields. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) has been widely used to fit observations exceeding the tail threshold in the peaks over threshold (POT) framework. Parameter estimation and threshold selection are two critical issues for threshold-based GPD inference. In this work, we propose a new GPD-based estimation approach by combining the method of moments and likelihood moment techniques based on the least squares concept, in which the shape and scale parameters of the GPD can be simultaneously estimated. To analyze extreme data, the proposed approach estimates the parameters by minimizing the sum of squared deviations between the theoretical GPD function and its expectation. Additionally, we introduce a recently developed stopping rule to choose the suitable threshold above which the GPD asymptotically fits the exceedances. Simulation studies show that the proposed approach performs better or similar to existing approaches, in terms of bias and the mean square error, in estimating the shape parameter. -
5. the Student T Distribution
Virtual Laboratories > 4. Special Distributions > 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 5. The Student t Distribution In this section we will study a distribution that has special importance in statistics. In particular, this distribution will arise in the study of a standardized version of the sample mean when the underlying distribution is normal. The Probability Density Function Suppose that Z has the standard normal distribution, V has the chi-squared distribution with n degrees of freedom, and that Z and V are independent. Let Z T= √V/n In the following exercise, you will show that T has probability density function given by −(n +1) /2 Γ((n + 1) / 2) t2 f(t)= 1 + , t∈ℝ ( n ) √n π Γ(n / 2) 1. Show that T has the given probability density function by using the following steps. n a. Show first that the conditional distribution of T given V=v is normal with mean 0 a nd variance v . b. Use (a) to find the joint probability density function of (T,V). c. Integrate the joint probability density function in (b) with respect to v to find the probability density function of T. The distribution of T is known as the Student t distribution with n degree of freedom. The distribution is well defined for any n > 0, but in practice, only positive integer values of n are of interest. This distribution was first studied by William Gosset, who published under the pseudonym Student. In addition to supplying the proof, Exercise 1 provides a good way of thinking of the t distribution: the t distribution arises when the variance of a mean 0 normal distribution is randomized in a certain way. -
Estimation of Common Location and Scale Parameters in Nonregular Cases Ahmad Razmpour Iowa State University
Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Retrospective Theses and Dissertations Dissertations 1982 Estimation of common location and scale parameters in nonregular cases Ahmad Razmpour Iowa State University Follow this and additional works at: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd Part of the Statistics and Probability Commons Recommended Citation Razmpour, Ahmad, "Estimation of common location and scale parameters in nonregular cases " (1982). Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 7528. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd/7528 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Dissertations at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Retrospective Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. INFORMATION TO USERS This reproduction was made from a copy of a document sent to us for microfilming. While the most advanced technology has been used to photograph and reproduce this document, the quality of the reproduction is heavily dependent upon the quality of the material submitted. The following explanation of techniques is provided to help clarify markings or notations which may appear on this reproduction. 1. The sign or "target" for pages apparently lacking from the document photographed is "Missing Page(s)". If it was possible to obtain the missing page(s) or section, they are spliced into the film along with adjacent pages. This may have necessitated cutting through an image and duplicating adjacent pages to assure complete continuity. 2. When an image on the film is obliterated with a round black mark, it is an indication of either blurred copy because of movement during exposure, duplicate copy, or copyrighted materials that should not have been filmed. -
On a Problem Connected with Beta and Gamma Distributions by R
ON A PROBLEM CONNECTED WITH BETA AND GAMMA DISTRIBUTIONS BY R. G. LAHA(i) 1. Introduction. The random variable X is said to have a Gamma distribution G(x;0,a)if du for x > 0, (1.1) P(X = x) = G(x;0,a) = JoT(a)" 0 for x ^ 0, where 0 > 0, a > 0. Let X and Y be two independently and identically distributed random variables each having a Gamma distribution of the form (1.1). Then it is well known [1, pp. 243-244], that the random variable W = X¡iX + Y) has a Beta distribution Biw ; a, a) given by 0 for w = 0, (1.2) PiW^w) = Biw;x,x)=\ ) u"-1il-u)'-1du for0<w<l, Ío T(a)r(a) 1 for w > 1. Now we can state the converse problem as follows : Let X and Y be two independently and identically distributed random variables having a common distribution function Fix). Suppose that W = Xj{X + Y) has a Beta distribution of the form (1.2). Then the question is whether £(x) is necessarily a Gamma distribution of the form (1.1). This problem was posed by Mauldon in [9]. He also showed that the converse problem is not true in general and constructed an example of a non-Gamma distribution with this property using the solution of an integral equation which was studied by Goodspeed in [2]. In the present paper we carry out a systematic investigation of this problem. In §2, we derive some general properties possessed by this class of distribution laws Fix). -
A Comparison of Unbiased and Plottingposition Estimators of L
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 31, NO. 8, PAGES 2019-2025, AUGUST 1995 A comparison of unbiased and plotting-position estimators of L moments J. R. M. Hosking and J. R. Wallis IBM ResearchDivision, T. J. Watson ResearchCenter, Yorktown Heights, New York Abstract. Plotting-positionestimators of L momentsand L moment ratios have several disadvantagescompared with the "unbiased"estimators. For generaluse, the "unbiased'? estimatorsshould be preferred. Plotting-positionestimators may still be usefulfor estimatingextreme upper tail quantilesin regional frequencyanalysis. Probability-Weighted Moments and L Moments •r+l-" (--1)r • P*r,k Olk '- E p *r,!•[J!•. Probability-weightedmoments of a randomvariable X with k=0 k=0 cumulativedistribution function F( ) and quantile function It is convenient to define dimensionless versions of L mo- x( ) were definedby Greenwoodet al. [1979]to be the quan- tities ments;this is achievedby dividingthe higher-orderL moments by the scale measure h2. The L moment ratios •'r, r = 3, Mp,ra= E[XP{F(X)}r{1- F(X)} s] 4, '", are definedby ßr-" •r/•2 ß {X(u)}PUr(1 -- U)s du. L momentratios measure the shapeof a distributionindepen- dently of its scaleof measurement.The ratios *3 ("L skew- ness")and *4 ("L kurtosis")are nowwidely used as measures Particularlyuseful specialcases are the probability-weighted of skewnessand kurtosis,respectively [e.g., Schaefer,1990; moments Pilon and Adamowski,1992; Royston,1992; Stedingeret al., 1992; Vogeland Fennessey,1993]. 12•r= M1,0, r = •01 (1 - u)rx(u) du, Estimators Given an ordered sample of size n, Xl: n • X2:n • ''' • urx(u) du. X.... there are two establishedways of estimatingthe proba- /3r--- Ml,r, 0 =f01 bility-weightedmoments and L moments of the distribution from whichthe samplewas drawn. -
1 One Parameter Exponential Families
1 One parameter exponential families The world of exponential families bridges the gap between the Gaussian family and general dis- tributions. Many properties of Gaussians carry through to exponential families in a fairly precise sense. • In the Gaussian world, there exact small sample distributional results (i.e. t, F , χ2). • In the exponential family world, there are approximate distributional results (i.e. deviance tests). • In the general setting, we can only appeal to asymptotics. A one-parameter exponential family, F is a one-parameter family of distributions of the form Pη(dx) = exp (η · t(x) − Λ(η)) P0(dx) for some probability measure P0. The parameter η is called the natural or canonical parameter and the function Λ is called the cumulant generating function, and is simply the normalization needed to make dPη fη(x) = (x) = exp (η · t(x) − Λ(η)) dP0 a proper probability density. The random variable t(X) is the sufficient statistic of the exponential family. Note that P0 does not have to be a distribution on R, but these are of course the simplest examples. 1.0.1 A first example: Gaussian with linear sufficient statistic Consider the standard normal distribution Z e−z2=2 P0(A) = p dz A 2π and let t(x) = x. Then, the exponential family is eη·x−x2=2 Pη(dx) / p 2π and we see that Λ(η) = η2=2: eta= np.linspace(-2,2,101) CGF= eta**2/2. plt.plot(eta, CGF) A= plt.gca() A.set_xlabel(r'$\eta$', size=20) A.set_ylabel(r'$\Lambda(\eta)$', size=20) f= plt.gcf() 1 Thus, the exponential family in this setting is the collection F = fN(η; 1) : η 2 Rg : d 1.0.2 Normal with quadratic sufficient statistic on R d As a second example, take P0 = N(0;Id×d), i.e. -
Independent Approximates Enable Closed-Form Estimation of Heavy-Tailed Distributions
Independent Approximates enable closed-form estimation of heavy-tailed distributions Kenric P. Nelson Abstract – Independent Approximates (IAs) are proven to enable a closed-form estimation of heavy-tailed distributions with an analytical density such as the generalized Pareto and Student’s t distributions. A broader proof using convolution of the characteristic function is described for future research. (IAs) are selected from independent, identically distributed samples by partitioning the samples into groups of size n and retaining the median of the samples in those groups which have approximately equal samples. The marginal distribution along the diagonal of equal values has a density proportional to the nth power of the original density. This nth-power-density, which the IAs approximate, has faster tail decay enabling closed-form estimation of its moments and retains a functional relationship with the original density. Computational experiments with between 1000 to 100,000 Student’s t samples are reported for over a range of location, scale, and shape (inverse of degree of freedom) parameters. IA pairs are used to estimate the location, IA triplets for the scale, and the geometric mean of the original samples for the shape. With 10,000 samples the relative bias of the parameter estimates is less than 0.01 and a relative precision is less than ±0.1. The theoretical bias is zero for the location and the finite bias for the scale can be subtracted out. The theoretical precision has a finite range when the shape is less than 2 for the location estimate and less than 3/2 for the scale estimate. -
Chapter 8 Fundamental Sampling Distributions And
CHAPTER 8 FUNDAMENTAL SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS AND DATA DESCRIPTIONS 8.1 Random Sampling pling procedure, it is desirable to choose a random sample in the sense that the observations are made The basic idea of the statistical inference is that we independently and at random. are allowed to draw inferences or conclusions about a Random Sample population based on the statistics computed from the sample data so that we could infer something about Let X1;X2;:::;Xn be n independent random variables, the parameters and obtain more information about the each having the same probability distribution f (x). population. Thus we must make sure that the samples Define X1;X2;:::;Xn to be a random sample of size must be good representatives of the population and n from the population f (x) and write its joint proba- pay attention on the sampling bias and variability to bility distribution as ensure the validity of statistical inference. f (x1;x2;:::;xn) = f (x1) f (x2) f (xn): ··· 8.2 Some Important Statistics It is important to measure the center and the variabil- ity of the population. For the purpose of the inference, we study the following measures regarding to the cen- ter and the variability. 8.2.1 Location Measures of a Sample The most commonly used statistics for measuring the center of a set of data, arranged in order of mag- nitude, are the sample mean, sample median, and sample mode. Let X1;X2;:::;Xn represent n random variables. Sample Mean To calculate the average, or mean, add all values, then Bias divide by the number of individuals. -
On the Meaning and Use of Kurtosis
Psychological Methods Copyright 1997 by the American Psychological Association, Inc. 1997, Vol. 2, No. 3,292-307 1082-989X/97/$3.00 On the Meaning and Use of Kurtosis Lawrence T. DeCarlo Fordham University For symmetric unimodal distributions, positive kurtosis indicates heavy tails and peakedness relative to the normal distribution, whereas negative kurtosis indicates light tails and flatness. Many textbooks, however, describe or illustrate kurtosis incompletely or incorrectly. In this article, kurtosis is illustrated with well-known distributions, and aspects of its interpretation and misinterpretation are discussed. The role of kurtosis in testing univariate and multivariate normality; as a measure of departures from normality; in issues of robustness, outliers, and bimodality; in generalized tests and estimators, as well as limitations of and alternatives to the kurtosis measure [32, are discussed. It is typically noted in introductory statistics standard deviation. The normal distribution has a kur- courses that distributions can be characterized in tosis of 3, and 132 - 3 is often used so that the refer- terms of central tendency, variability, and shape. With ence normal distribution has a kurtosis of zero (132 - respect to shape, virtually every textbook defines and 3 is sometimes denoted as Y2)- A sample counterpart illustrates skewness. On the other hand, another as- to 132 can be obtained by replacing the population pect of shape, which is kurtosis, is either not discussed moments with the sample moments, which gives or, worse yet, is often described or illustrated incor- rectly. Kurtosis is also frequently not reported in re- ~(X i -- S)4/n search articles, in spite of the fact that virtually every b2 (•(X i - ~')2/n)2' statistical package provides a measure of kurtosis.