A L B E R T A
ENERGY O I L S A N D S PRODUCTION PROFIL E : 2 0 0 4 - 2 0 1 4
Energy Technical Services Resource Development Policy Division
January 31, 2016
2004 - 2014 Christopher Holly Martin Mader Shoshi Soni Jesse Toor
ISBN: 978-1-4601-2723-0 (PDF) This paper was prepared by the Energy Technical Services Branch, Alberta Energy, to illustrate technology developments in the Alberta oil and gas industry. The Government of Alberta shall have no liability whatsoever to third parties for any defect, deficiency, error or omission in the contents, analyses and evaluations presented in this paper.
Any questions about this paper should be directed to
Branch Head Energy Technical Services Alberta Energy 9945 – 108 Street Edmonton, Alberta Canada T5K 2G6
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 2 Table of Contents Introduction ...... 4
Methodology ...... 5
Oil Sands Areas ...... 6
Production Technologies ...... 7
Primary/Enhanced Oil Recovery ...... 7
Cyclic Steam Stimulation ...... 7
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage ...... 7
Surface Mining ...... 7
Diagram of different production technologies: ...... 8
Data & Analysis ...... 9
Annual Oil Sands Production ...... 9
Annual Oil Sands Production by Technology ...... 10
Annual Oil Sands Production by Area ...... 12
Annual Oil Sands Areas Production by Technology ...... 14
Annual Oil Sands Production - SAGD ...... 17
Annual Oil Sands Production - CSS ...... 19
Appendix I ...... 21
2004 – 2014 Oil Sands Project Production Volumes ...... 21
Appendix II ...... 22
Calculations ...... 22
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 3 Introduction Canada is endowed with significant crude oil resources, in the order of two trillion barrels of oil in place. Although these oil deposits are some of the most challenging in the world to develop, innovative research and production technologies have enabled them to move from resources to proven reserves. Canada is a net exporter of oil, and is consistently the top supplier of oil imports to the United States. As of 2014, Canada is responsible for 19 percent of oil exports to the United States1, of which 77 percent is from Alberta’s Oil Sands2.
The purpose of this report is to provide a detailed overview of oil production volumes from the oil sands region based on production information submitted to the Ministry of Energy3. Specifically, this report will provide an analysis of production volumes based on (1) region, and (2) production technology as defined by the Alberta Energy. The report also shows steam-to-oil ratios trends for thermal in-situ projects from 2004 - 2015.
1 http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/crdlndptrlmprdct-eng.html, Retrieved October 9, 2015 2 http://www.neb.gc.ca/nrg/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/index-eng.html, Retrieved September 22, 2014 3 The ministry consists of the Department of Energy, the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER), the Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC), the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission (APMC) and the Post-Closure Stewardship Fund. The AER regulates the safe, efficient, orderly and environmentally responsible development of Alberta’s energy resources. This includes allocating and conserving water resources, protecting the environment and managing public lands, which benefit Alberta’s economy and environment. The AUC regulates the utilities sector, natural gas and electricity markets to protect the social, economic and environmental interests of Alberta where competitive market forces do not. The APMC is a provincial agency that markets the Crown’s crude oil royalty barrels. The APMC supports projects that economically benefit the province through improving market access or maximizing the value of Alberta’s non-renewable resources. The Post-Closure Stewardship Fund, financed by carbon-capture and storage operators in Alberta, is a liability fund that has been established to ensure that carbon- capture and storage sites are properly maintained in the long-term after carbon-capture operations cease. Alberta Energy Business Plan 2015-18, October 15, 2015
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 4 Methodology The main objectives of the Oil Sands Production Profile (OSPP) are to identify the growth trend in different production technologies over the past 10 years, how these technologies have been applied to different Oil Sands Areas and energy efficiency of thermal projects. The total production volumes given in this profile are reflective of the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) data, which includes experimental commercial and freehold Oil Sands projects. Growth trends were measured and assessed for accuracy (R2 ≥ 0.99 for total Oil Sands production)4.
Production data is categorized by operators, area (Athabasca North, Wabiskaw, Conklin, Peace River and Cold Lake), and production technology (Primary/Enhanced Oil Recovery, Cyclic Steam Simulation, Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage, and Surface Mining).
4 See Appendix II – Growth trends
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 5 Oil Sands Areas In Alberta, there are three main Oil Sands Areas. These areas are as follows: 1. Athabasca 2. Cold Lake 3. Peace River
To identify with greater clarity where growth is occurring, the Athabasca Oil Sands Area (AOSA) is divided into three sub-areas or segments: 1. Athabasca (North) – The AOSA, North of Township 86 (known hereafter as “Athabasca North Area”) 2. Athabasca (Wabiskaw) – The AOSA, South of Township 86, from Range 16 West (known hereafter as “Wabiskaw Area”). 3. Athabasca (Conklin) – The AOSA, from Township 86 South, East of Range 16 (known hereafter as “Conklin Area”).
The map in Figure 1-i shows the locations of these areas. The reservoir characteristics vary significantly among these areas, as shown in Figure 1-ii.
Figure 1
i. Alberta Oil Sands Areas5
5 Map modified from http://www.energy.alberta.ca/LandAccess/pdfs/OSAagreeStats.pdf
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 6 Production Technologies There are four generalized extraction methods outlined as the main production technologies currently used in the Oil Sands Areas: Primary/Enhanced Recovery, Cyclic Steam Stimulation, Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage, and Surface Mining. The resource quality determines the recovery technology to be used as it is critical to match the recovery process to the unique characteristics of a reservoir such as location, geology, etc.
Primary/Enhanced Oil Recovery Primary recovery from a reservoir is typically the first method of producing oil from a given reservoir. It uses energy which is already in the reservoir, such as gravity, and water or gas pressure (also known as waterdrive or gasdrive), to displace oil and drive it to surface facilities.
Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) is typically any form of technology for producing oil after primary production is no longer economically viable. Some examples of EOR include: water-flooding, gas injection, and polymer/chemical flooding. In some cases, these EOR production technologies are applied at the start of production, rather than being used as the secondary or tertiary recovery mechanism, in order to increase the ultimate recovery of oil from the reservoir.
Cyclic Steam Stimulation Cyclic Steam Stimulation (CSS), or “huff and puff” as it is sometimes called, is a thermal production technology in which one well is used to both inject steam and produce oil. Steam is injected at pressures high enough that the hydraulic fractures are induced in the reservoir, allowing steam to access and heat new areas of the reservoir. After weeks or even months, the injection cycle is completed; a few days are allowed for the steam to condense and then the production of oil and water begins. Production initially occurs due to increased reservoir pressures, but later, cycles require artificial lift technologies to produce the remaining oil during the production cycle. This cycle is then repeated after the production rates become too small (as determined by the producer).
CSS is a viable option for deeper reservoirs that have a thick, capping shale to manage the high steam injection pressure. The high injection pressure and multiple recovery mechanisms enable CSS to work effectively with a broader range of reservoirs, especially with heterogeneous characteristics.
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is a thermal production technology which utilizes two parallel horizontal wells, known as a well pair, one to inject steam, and the other to produce water and oil. Initially, steam is circulated in both wells to establish communication between the wells. The top horizontal well then continuously injects steam to heat the reservoir, creating a steam chamber. The oil from the chamber drains to the production well below to allow for production initially through pressure drive, and then by artificial lift or gas lift. The steam injection and oil production happen continuously and simultaneously once production starts. This technology has a high ultimate recovery of oil from the reservoir relative to other in situ production technologies.
Surface Mining Truck and shovel technology is used to move sand saturated with bitumen from the mining area to an extraction facility. Surface mining is used to recover oil sands deposits less than 75 meters below the surface, while in-situ technologies are used to recover deeper deposits. The bitumen is then
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 7 treated to remove the sand, mineral fines and other impurities in processes which vary among industry competitors. Once the extraction process is completed, it is ready for refining or upgrading, depending on the company’s objective and the treatment process used.
Diagram of different production technologies:
Source: Government of Alberta
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 8 Data & Analysis
Annual Oil Sands Production Crude Oil production from Oil Sands was calculated on an annual basis for 2004-2014 production years6 and is presented in Figure 2.
Figure 2
i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands 2004 - 2014
2,500,000
2,000,000
(bpd) 1,500,000
1,000,000 Production
500,000
- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands 2004 - 2014 Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 bpd 1,088,799 1,063,639 1,254,226 1,320,271 1,304,546 1,488,843 1,612,127 1,748,296 1,956,031 2,142,264 2,323,535
Figure 2 shows growth in total crude production for all of the oil sands areas. The average annual growth was determined to be 121,526 bpd with a 7.8 percent Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)7.
6 See Methodology and Appendix I 7 See Appendix II for sample calculation
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 9 Annual Oil Sands Production by Technology To emphasize the growth of separate technologies over the past decade, annual production was further analyzed based on the four generalized commercial production technologies: 1) Primary/EOR, 2) CSS, 3) SAGD, and 4) Surface Mining8. Figure 3-i and 3-ii shows production by the various technologies.
Figure 3
i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Technology
1,200,000 CSS
Surface Mining 1,000,000
Primary/EOR
SAGD 800,000
600,000 Production Production (bpd) 400,000
200,000
- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
ii) Annual Crude Oil Production (bpd) from Oil Sands by Technology
Technology 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CSS 175,535 198,860 224,277 225,218 219,029 207,947 237,892 264,064 264,705 256,531 251,666 Surface Mining 704,777 612,751 760,839 770,835 721,491 825,842 856,876 890,940 929,662 978,208 1,038,479 Primary/EOR 115,537 117,970 128,878 153,296 169,131 174,422 173,145 169,660 178,442 210,810 226,964 SAGD 72,627 86,440 108,398 128,212 180,248 244,507 322,644 378,853 518,542 626,403 686,324 Total 1,068,476 1,016,021 1,222,393 1,277,561 1,289,900 1,452,718 1,590,557 1,703,517 1,891,351 2,071,952 2,203,433
8 As described in Methodology and Appendix I
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 10 iii) Crude Oil Growth Rates from Oil Sands by Technology
Technology Average Growth (bbl/year) Compounded Annual Growth (CAGR) CSS 7,613 3.7% Surface Mining 33,370 4.0% Primary/EOR 11,143 7.0% SAGD 61,370 25.2% Total 113,496 7.5%
Separating production allowed for calculation of the individual CAGR of the technologies, and showed the corresponding trends. Growth rates can be seen in Figure 3-iii. CAGR for CSS (3.7%), Mining (4%) and Primary (7%) exhibited growth trends9, similar to total annual production (7.5%) as shown in Figure 2-i and 2-ii, while SAGD production exhibited more growth with a significantly greater CAGR (25.2%) than all other production technologies.
9 Appendix II-i
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 11 Annual Oil Sands Production by Area Production trends were also examined within the distinct Oil Sands Areas10. Annual crude production was determined for: 1) Athabasca North, 2) Cold Lake, 3) Conklin, 4) Peace River, and 5) Wabiskaw areas11. Figure 4-i and 4-ii shows the annual production volumes for the various regions.
Figure 4
i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area
1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000
1,000,000 Athabasca North 900,000 Cold Lake 800,000 Conklin 700,000 Peace River 600,000 Wabiskaw 500,000 Production (bpd) Production 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
ii) Annual Crude Oil Production (bpd) from Oil Sands by Area Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area Area 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Athabasca 733,869 654,428 816,442 829,825 787,655 904,831 941,981 980,539 1,060,921 1,151,935 1,240,106 North Cold Lake 237,534 246,594 276,332 285,400 293,347 286,669 323,505 364,004 349,944 354,521 350,473 Conklin 42,741 44,129 52,304 62,897 105,840 155,543 226,811 273,600 351,535 427,104 459,162 Peace River 15,167 21,864 20,077 36,087 38,633 41,133 37,037 41,807 41,634 47,659 52,608 Wabiskaw 39,165 49,006 57,238 63,351 64,425 64,542 61,223 61,567 75,294 89,837 101,084 Total 1,068,476 1,016,021 1,222,393 1,277,560 1,289,900 1,452,718 1,590,557 1,721,517 1,879,328 2,071,056 2,203,433
10 See Oil Sands Areas 11 As described in Methodology and Appendix I
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 12
iii) Annual Crude Oil Growth Rates from Oil Sands by Area
Annual Crude Oil Growth Rates from Oil Sands by Area Average Annual Growth Compounded Annual Area Rate Growth (bpd/year) Growth Rate (CAGR) Athabasca North 50,624 5.4% Cold Lake 11,294 4.0% Conklin 41,642 26.8% Peace River 3,744 13.2% Wabiskaw 6,192 9.9% Total 113,496 7.5%
CAGRs were calculated for Athabasca North (5.4%), Cold Lake (4%), and Wabiskaw (9.9%) areas (Figure 4-iii). All areas exhibited CAGRs less than 10%, with the exception of the Peace River (13.2%) area, and the Conklin area which exhibited larger growth (26.8%)12.
12 Appendix II-iii and II-iv
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 13 Annual Oil Sands Areas Production by Technology
Regional production volumes were further sub-divided on the basis of technology to determine production trends in each area. Results are shown in Figure 5-i to 5-vi.
Figure 5
i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area – Athabasca North
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000 Surface Mining 600,000 SAGD
400,000 Production (bpd) Production
200,000
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area – Cold Lake
300,000
250,000
200,000 CSS Primary/EOR 150,000 SAGD
100,000 Production (bpd) Production 50,000
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 14 iii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area – Conklin
500,000 450,000 400,000
350,000 300,000 250,000 SAGD 200,000 150,000
100,000 Production (bpd) Production 50,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
iv) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands Area by Area – Peace River
50,000 45,000
40,000 35,000 30,000 CSS 25,000 Primary/EOR 20,000 SAGD
Production (bpd) Production 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 15 v) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands Area by Region – Wabiskaw
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000 Primary/EOR SAGD
40,000 Production (bpd) Production
20,000
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
vi) Annual Crude Oil Production (bpd) and Growth Rates from Oil Sands Regions by Technology
Athabasca 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Growth (bbl/year)CAGR Surface Mining 704,777 612,751 760,839 770,835 721,491 825,842 856,876 890,940 929,662 978,208 1,038,479 33,370 4.0% SAGD 29,092 41,677 55,585 58,990 66,164 78,989 85,105 89,597 131,255 173,725 201,627 17,254 21.4%
Cold Lake 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Growth (bbl/year)CAGR CSS 167,455 189,912 217,747 216,196 210,217 202,468 233,681 261,552 261,787 253,536 247,656 8,020 4.0% Primary/EOR 69,285 56,048 58,093 62,879 74,885 74,226 79,097 69,093 65,520 83,344 83,225 1,394 1.9% SAGD 794 634 492 6,325 8,245 9,975 10,728 15,359 22,637 17,641 19,592 1,880 37.8%
Conklin 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Growth (bbl/year)CAGR SAGD 42,741 44,129 52,304 62,897 105,840 155,543 226,811 273,600 350,047 425,787 459,162 41,642 26.8%
Peace River 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Growth (bbl/year)CAGR CSS 8,080 8,948 6,530 9,021 8,812 5,479 4,212 2,512 2,918 2,995 4,010 -407 -6.8% Primary/EOR 7,087 12,916 13,548 27,066 29,821 35,654 32,825 30,674 33,698 36,310 44,313 3,723 20.1% SAGD ------9 5,019 1,003 4,285 1,425 * *Not enough data to determine CAGR Wabiskaw 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Growth (bbl/year)CAGR Primary/EOR 39,165 49,006 57,238 63,351 64,425 64,542 61,223 61,279 74,497 89,837 99,426 5,478 9.8% SAGD ------288 797 897 1,658 457 * *Not enough data to determine CAGR
CAGRs for technologies in all regions exhibited similar growth displayed by technologies in the overall oil sands area (Figure 5-vi), with SAGD based production showing major growth in most producing regions.
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 16 Annual Oil Sands Production - SAGD
To further examine the growth trends for SAGD operations13, annual SAGD production was further analyzed to determine the steam-oil ratio (SOR).
SOR is a measure of efficiency for thermal projects. It measures the average volume of steam needed to produce one barrel of bitumen. SOR is based on the amount of steam injected at a project site per barrel of oil produced. There are two ways to measure SOR:
1. Instantaneous steam-oil ratio (ISOR): measures the current or instantaneous rate of steam required to produce one barrel of bitumen.
2. Cumulative steam-oil ratio (CSOR): measures the average volume of steam (over the life of the operation) required to produce one barrel of bitumen.
The annual (calendar year – January 1st to December 31st) SOR for SAGD projects were examined to identify ISOR and CSOR (Figure 6-ii and iii). A low SOR indicates that steam is more efficiently utilized and, as a result, the associated costs related to fuel and water is lower.
Figure 6
i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands - SAGD Production
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000 Production (bpd)
200,000 SAGD 100,000
- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
13 Appendix II-ii
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 17 ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands SAGD – Annual Weighted Average ISOR
All SAGD Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~100%
140.0 5.0
4.5 120.0 4.0
100.0 3.5
3.0 80.0 Steam (e6m3) 2.5 Bitumen (e6m3) 60.0 2.0 Million m3 Million Annual SOR 40.0 (m3/m3) 1.5 1.0 20.0 0.5
0.0 0.0 Ratio Oil (m3/m3) to SteamAverage Annual
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Steam Injection and Bitumen ProductionBitumenand InjectionSteamAnnual Year
iii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands SAGD – CSOR
All SAGD Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~100% CSOR
140.0 4.5
4.0 120.0 3.5 100.0
3.0
Steam (e6m3) 80.0 2.5 Bitumen (e6m3) 2.0
Million m3 Million 60.0 Cumulative SOR (m3/m3) 1.5 Ratio Oil (m3/m3) to Steam 40.0 1.0 20.0
0.5 Cumulative Cumulative
Annual Steam Injection and Bitumen ProductionBitumenand InjectionSteamAnnual 0.0 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year
Comparing the CSOR from 2004 to 2014 shows a steady decline in steam use per barrel of bitumen produced for all SAGD projects operating in Alberta. In 2014, the average CSOR for SAGD bitumen production has dropped to 2.7.
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 18 Annual Oil Sands Production - CSS
As Alberta operators also use CSS as a thermal technology, annual CSS production was further analyzed to determine the ISOR and CSOR on absolute production.
Figure 7
i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands - CSS Production
300,000
250,000 CSS
200,000
150,000
Production(bpd) 100,000
50,000
- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands CSS – Annual Weighted Average SOR
All CSS Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~75% ISOR
70.00 4.40
60.00 4.20
50.00 4.00 40.00
3.80 Injection and Bitumenand Injection
30.00 Ration (m3/m3)Ration 3.60
20.00 Production Million m3 ProductionMillion
Steam e6m3 Oil to SteamAverage Annual 10.00 3.40
Annual SteamAnnual Bitumen e6m3
0.00 3.20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 19
iii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands CSS – CSOR
All CSS Wells in Alberta - Steam Quality ~75% CSOR
70.00 4.0
60.00
4.0
Ration 50.00
3.9
40.00 Injection and Bitumenand Injection 30.00 3.9
Production Million m3 ProductionMillion 20.00 3.8
Annual SteamAnnual Steam e6m3 10.00
Bitumen e6m3 Oil to SteamAverage Cumulative 0.00 3.8 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year
Comparing the CSOR from 2004 to 2014 shows a decline in steam use per barrel of bitumen produced for all CSS projects operating in Alberta. In 2015, the average CSOR for CSS bitumen production is around 3.8.
It is important to note that CSS and SAGD SORs are not comparable on an energy basis as 75 percent quality steam for CSS contains less energy than the same water volume of steam at 100 percent quality for SAGD. Therefore, SAGD is not necessarily more energy efficient than CSS.
Steam quality is the proportion of saturated steam (vapour) in a saturated liquid/vapour mixture. A steam quality of 0 percent indicates 100 percent liquid (condensate), while a steam quality of 100 percent indicates 100 percent of steam14.
14 Definition of steam quality - https://www.swagelok.com/~/media/Distributor%20Media/C-G/Chicago/Services/ES%20- %20Steam%20Quality_BP_23.ashx, retrieved January 5, 2016.
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 20 Appendix I
2004 – 2014 Oil Sands Project Production Volumes
Please note - Appendix I has been removed due to confidential industry information.
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 21 Appendix II
Calculations
Growth rates were calculated using Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) calculation: (1/n) r = [(x1/x2) ] – 1
Where: r = Compounded annual growth rate x1 = 2014 annual production volume x2 = 2004 Annual Production volume n= Production Years/Periods
Trend types and R-squared values were generated using Microsoft Excel. Please see figures below for corresponding equations.
i) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands
Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands
2,500,000
2,000,000
(bpd) 1,500,000 y = 8928.1x2 - 4E+07x + 4E+10 R² = 0.9912
1,000,000
Series1 Production
500,000 Poly. (Series1)
- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 22 ii) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Technology
CSS 1,200,000
Surface Mining
1,000,000 Primary/EOR
y = 626629e0.0443x SAGD
R² = 0.8806 800,000 y = 54379e0.2418x Poly. (CSS) R² = 0.9924
Expon. 600,000 (Surface Mining) Expon.
(Primary/EOR) Production (bpd) 400,000 Expon. (SAGD) y = -150.63x4 + 3593.8x3 - 28943x2 + 97238x + 101778 R² = 0.9091
200,000 y = 111062e0.0627x R² = 0.9085
- 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Year
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 23 iv) Annual Crude Oil Production from Oil Sands by Area
1,300,000 Athabasca North 1,200,000 Cold Lake 1,100,000
1,000,000 y = 3605.2x2 + 8650.9x + 700669 Conklin R² = 0.9552 900,000 Peace River 800,000
700,000 Wabiskaw
600,000 Poly. (Athabasca 3 2 500,000 y = -215.42x + 3278.1x + 531.13x + 237536 North) R² = 0.9271 Poly. (Cold Production (bpd) Production 400,000 Lake) y = -568.78x3 + 14182x2 - 52684x + 89126 R² = 0.9969 300,000 Poly. (Conklin) 200,000 y = 324.59x2 + 835.04x + 46125 Linear 100,000 R² = 0.8434 (Peace y = 3317.3x + 15888 River) R² = 0.8656 0 Poly. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (Wabiskaw) Year
Alberta Energy| Oil Sands Production Profile 2004 - 2014 P a g e | 24