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Hoist Your Sail When the Wind Is Fair Y 25 January 2017 Turkish Equities Strategy Hoist your sail when the wind is fair y Economy activity to normalise with expansionary fiscal policy: Our 12-month forward looking Index target underlying assumptions for 2017 consist of some stabilisation in the political BIST-100 actual level Consensus index target scene after the expected constitutional referendum in the first half of 2017, UNLU & Co index target 100,000 96,350 stabilisation in TL following the interest rate hikes by CBRT, and geopolitical 95,000 risks declining moderately. We forecast 3.0% GDP growth in 2017E, driven 90,000 91,080 mainly by higher government spending and a recovery in private 85,000 | CEEMEA/Turke consumption. On the other hand, inflation is likely to remain elevated 80,000 throughout the year. The main downside risks are i) a sustained rally in 75,000 Strategy insight energy prices, ii) geopolitical risks with terrorism hitting touristic areas, iii) 70,000 the continuing purge of the failed coup-plotters, iv) expected public Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Oct-15 Oct-16 referendum in 1H17 and v) Fitch lowering Turkey’s sovereign credit rating Oct-17 one notch to non-investment grade. Top picks for 2017 Ticker Rating CP (TL) TP (TL) Upside Turkey is attractively valued in the EM context: If we witness further AKBNK Buy 7.84 9.40 20% inflows to emerging markets, which started in July 2016, Turkey could GARAN Buy 7.81 9.75 25% potentially be among the beneficiaries as it trades at a significant discount to CCOLA Buy 37.56 43.90 17% Equity Research its peers. Turkey’s discount to the MSCI EM Index widened to an all-time ENKAI Buy 5.82 6.92 19% high in 2016 on the back of rising political risks and the weakening economic TUPRS Buy 78.00 91.00 17% outlook. Earnings, on the other hand, remained relatively resilient thanks to TTRAK Buy 78.95 92.00 17% the banking sector’s record high profitability in 2016, which sent Turkish ULKER Buy 16.61 22.30 34% equities’ multiples to multi-year lows. In 2017, we expect a recovery in Source: Bloomberg, UNLU & Co estimates Turkish non-financials earnings, while banks are likely to grow earnings further (see page 25). We believe the depressed level of multiples imply that investor appetite towards Turkish assets is at an all-time low. Research Analysts Vedat Mizrahi, PhD Our bottom-up index target of 96,350 offers 16% upside: [email protected] Considering global trends and the macro outlook in Turkey, we expect TL +90-212-367-3690 interest rates to remain elevated. As a result, we adjust our risk-free rate Can Ozguzel assumption to 10.5%, from 9.5% previously. In this report, we revise our [email protected] target prices and recommendations for all the companies in our coverage +90-212-367-3678 based on the changes to our macro forecasts, COE assumptions and earnings estimates. Our bottom-up index target is 96,350, offering 16% Can Oztoprak upside potential. We view relatively more attractive upside potentials in the [email protected] banks, real estate and conglomerates sectors. On the other hand, the retail, +90-212-367-3692 TMT, automotive, white goods, cement, aviation, glass and defence sectors Emir Moran offer relatively less attractive upsides potentials (See Figure 46 on page 23, for [email protected] all the updated rating and TPs). +90-212-367-3687 Top picks: Based on our macro outlook for 2017, we identify five main Esra Simsek investment themes that could play out well in 2017. We discuss each of [email protected] these themes in detail and determine 12 preferred names around the +90-212-367-3696 themes (see page 27). To summarise; i) banks outshine non-financials from a Mete Ozbek relative risk/reward perspective, ii) hedge currency risk through exporters [email protected] and FX earners, iii) high dividend payers should outperform, at least during +90-212-367-3689 the dividend season, iv) seeking recovery and restructuring stories and v) generating alpha through quality small-caps Among these 12 ideas, we name Muharrem Gulsever the most liquid ones as our Top picks. Accordingly, Akbank, Garanti, [email protected] Coca-Cola Icecek, Enka Insaat, Tupras, Turk Traktor and Ulker are our +90-212-367-3694 most preferred names (see pages 35-43). Sinan Veziroglu [email protected] +90-212-367-3691 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX. U.S. Disclosure: UNLU Menkul Degerler A.S. ("UNLU & Co") does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decision. U.S. investors transacting in the securities featured or mentioned in this research report must deal directly through a U.S. Registered broker- dealer. Contents Executive summary .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 2016 was a year of two distinct halves ................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 US policies and the performance of USD will be key determinants ................................................................................................................................ 3 Economy activity to normalise with expansionary fiscal policy ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Turkey is attractively valued in the EM context ................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Our bottom-up index target (96,350) offers 16% upside ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Top picks for 2017 ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Macroeconomic outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 Weak growth in 1H17, followed by recovery ....................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Unemployment rate rises significantly ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Inflation is likely to surge in 1H17 ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 8 CBRT prefers unorthodox measures to tighten .................................................................................................................................................................. 9 Current account deficit to widen in 2017 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 10 Budget deterioration in sight, though not an immediate concern .................................................................................................................................. 11 Private sector is highly leveraged ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Political risks weigh on the economy .................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Fixed income market outlook ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Turkey could lose its last IG rating from Fitch Ratings ..................................................................................................................................................... 14 CDS increase sharply after the attempted coup ................................................................................................................................................................. 15 Sovereign USD bond yields increase by c.80bps in 2016............................................................................................................................... ................... 15 Equity market outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Current valuations reflect a crisis scenario
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