(REPORT The Economist BE PREPARED FOR A CHANGE Every business needs to have an idea of the future - especially in an environment as volatile as Africa's. Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit's special reports look forward, in text as well as tables, giving you the data, analyses and forecasts you need to assess the prospects of indivtdua countries or commodities for the years ahead. Each subject is covered by an SPECIAL REPORTS independent specialist supported by the ElU's enviable ON AFRICA network of international information sources.

AUTHORITATIVE FORECASTS, RELIABLE INTELLIGENCE, COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS. • ZIMBABWE TO 1996 • NAMIBIA THROUGH THE 1990s At the Heart of a Growing Region Turning Rich Resources into Growth Southern Africa is undergoing great changes, with moves towards Since March 1990 Namibia has taken impressive strides towards peace and democracy offering challenges and opportunities. transforming its economy. This report looks at the country's economic Zimbabwe is well placed to benefit enormously from these changes r inheritance and its new political dispensation, as well as its future role its own redirection succeeds. This report analyses the prospects for in a changing region. Strong growth is forecast medium-term, high- export-led growth and stability in Zimbabwe, focusing on the relative lighted by the fisheries and manufacturing sectors. Despite uncert- depth and diversity of the economy and the challenges that will be ainties about the future of uranium, growth should be consolidated imposed by a changing South Africa. through the development of Namibian oil and gas potential. Special Report No M205. Special Report No M211. Published February 1992. Price £195/US$395 Published March 1992- Price £195/US$395

• COPPER TO 1995 a COTTON TO 1996 • TOBACCO TO 1995 Demand Overcomes Setbacks Pressing a Natural Advantage Consumption Moves South Assesses the net impact of the spread of fibre Assesses cotton's chance of consolidating in Analyses the structure of the tobacco industry optics on demand for copper, the political risk the 1990s the share of the fibre market it and its efforts to adapt to changing consumer to copper mining in the third world and its regained in the 1980s. requirements. Examines geographical shifts in competitiveness with aluminium. Special Report No 2145. consumption. Special Report No M701. Published September 1991. Special Report No 2091. Published December 1991. Price £175/US$365 Published June 1991. Price £175/US$365 Price £175/US$365

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I Ipdate The African-American Institute Editor: Russell Geekie Algeria Chairman Democracy Derailed Maurice Tempelsman By Alfred Hermida President North Africa Vivian Lowery Derryck Rise of the Crescent 18 By Gary Abramson Publisher Ethiopia Frank E. Ferrari Living on the Edge 22 Editor-in-Chief Ethiopia's Transition By Peter Biles Margaret A. Novicki Page 22 Chad Production Editor Plus Ca Change 25 Joseph Margolis By Assane Diop

Assistant Editor Pluralism Russell Geekie 'Hie Ixonomics of Democracy 28 By Anne Shepherd Contributing Editors Alana Lee 'Die Military Factor 31 Andrew Meldrum By Mark Huband Daphne Topouzis The Gambia Art Director Knding An Era 34 Kenneth Jay Ross By Peter da Costa Advertising Office The Army's Hole Burundi 212 949-5666, ext 728 Page 31 Unity At Last? 37 By Allison Boyer Intern Anastasia Venetos Zaire Pressure From Abroad 41 Africa Report (ISSN 0001-9836), a By Mark Huband non-profit magazine of African affairs, is published bimonthly and is sched- South Africa uled to appear at the beginning of Coming to a Compromise 45 each date period a! 833 United Nations Pfaza. New York. NY 10017. By Patrick Laurence Editorial correspondence and adver- tising inquiries should be addressed Ironing Out Inequities 49 to Africa Report, at the above ad- dress. Subscription inquiries should be By Anne Shepherd addressed to: Subscription Services, P.O. Box 3000, Dept. AR. Denville N.J. Zimbabwe 07834, Subscription rates: Individuals: USA $30, Canada $36, air rate over- Ending Ethnic Conflict? Uniting the Opposition? 52 seas $54. Institutions: USA $37. By Andrew Meldrum Canada $43, air rale overseas $61. Page 37 Second-class postage paid at New York, N.Y and at additional mailing Malawi offices. POSTMASTER: II this maga- In Banda's Image 57 zine is undeliverable, please send address changes lo Africa Report at By Heather Hill 833 UN Plaza, NY. NY 10017. Tele- phone (212) 949-5666. Copyright •'' Angola 1992 by The African-American Insti- tute, Inc. Brothers in Arms 60 By Vicki R. Finket Economies Wailing for the Giant 65 Photo Credit: By Ruth Ansah Ayisi The cover photograph of an Islamic Salvation Front support- Equatorial Guinea er at Friday prayers in Algiers Lurching Toward Democracy 68 One-Party Opponents was taken by Pascal Parrot for By Paul Laskmar Sygma. Page 52 To the Editor: regions, responsibility lies to a great received satisfaction" regarding their The article that appeared in the Jan- extent on some political parties like the rights: Dozens have been dismissed from uary-February 1992 issue of your maga- Liberal Parry, that share the views of the their jobs, including civil servants. Many zine by Nicola Jefferson, "Rwanda: The aggressors and recruit young Tutsi to others have not had their passports War Within," prompts me to draw your send to the front. returned. attention to some points that I feel need As the various tables show, the gov- Perhaps the most misleading state- to be clarified or rectified. ernment has never discriminated against ments tn Mr. Mukandoli's argument To us, this article appears more like the Tutsi where employment and school- relate to what he calls the "alleged mas- an indictment against the Rwandan ing are concerned. [Editor's note: Due to sacre of Bagogwe" and the incidents nation—that the writer mistakenly refers space constraints, we were unable to which occurred in Kibirira, Murambi, to as "the Hutu state"—rather than a print the tables and accompanying data. and Bugesera. On August 14, 1991, the deep analysis that can be useful to the Copies may be requested by mail.] Rwandan ambassador to Belgium admit- reader. The article takes up the bulk of Obviously for the moment, Rwanda lacks ted that "a massacre of Tutsi the accusations made by the Rwandan the means to face both educational and civilians...occurred in the [Bagogwe] Patriotic Front against the Rwandan gov- employment needs of the population. region." Africa Watch and local human ernment especially with regard to human Consequently, independent of ethnic con- rights organizations have documented rights, democracy, discrimination siderations, a great number of people deaths of Bagogwe which are not against the Tutsi. To the unbiased eye, are suffering. With regard to employ- attributable to rebel attacks. The minister however, the truth is entirely different. ment, public and private sectors put of justice ordered an investigation into All the prisoners taken during the together cannot satisfy the demand for the matter, but to date it has not resulted October war have been freed except 30 jobs. in any indictments. who had already been convicted. The Therefore, to all those who too quickly If there had been a "genuine readi- situation in prison is no different from accuse the country of practicing the poli- ness of the government to restore peace actual living conditions in most of the cy of exclusion, Rwanda sends an and order" in Kibirira, the government country. There is a genera! shortage of appeal for assistance to increase its would have prosecuted the two officials food and medicines; people die of star- capability to extend school facilities and it dismissed who were implicated in the vation and lack of medical attention. to develop new areas that generate new killings. It has not done so. Most of our prisons date back to the jobs. Africa Watch, as well as local human colonial era and are overcrowded. This Vianney Mukandoli rights organizations, documented the state of affairs cannot be attributed to a Charge d'Affaires encouragement of and participation in deliberate disregard of human rights by Embassy of Rwanda attacks against Tutsi and others in the government, but more to a scarcity of Washington, D.C. Murambi by local authorities. material and human resources needed to Nothing in the article is based upon ensure proper living conditions, a fair Nicola Jefferson replies: information disseminated by the RPF, the trial, and the right to a defense for the It is the unpleasant job of diplomats rebel group that invaded the country in prisoners. everywhere to defend the indefensible. October 1990. The findings report what With regard to freed persons, the Mr. Mukandoli has a particularly difficult Africa Watch representatives document- government has recommended that their task in his attempt to explain away the ed or verified during their mission to the rights be fully restored insofar as con- appalling human rights record of his gov- country, during which they visited nine of cerns their employment and their pass- ernment. 11 prefectures. ports. Most of them have received satis- His points regarding arrests and Nowhere in the article is any refer- faction. detentions following the RPF October ence made, explicit or otherwise, to a As to the alleged massacre of Bagog- 1990 invasion are misleading. It is true "Hutu state;" it does indicate that since we, unfortunately, war does not spare that most, if not all, of those arrested independence, political power has civilian populations, much less those liv- after the invasion have been released. remained firmly in the hands of the Hutu. ing inside the combat zones. These What he does not explain is why the The article does not purport to provide a Bagogwe live at the foot of volcanoes government in the first place detained "deep analysis" of the problems facing that certainly were not spared by RPF more than 8,000 civilians for up to six Rwanda—such an analysis was not pos- assaults. months in filthy, overcrowded prisons, sible given the space constraints. With regard to the troubles in the without ever charging them with a crime. Finally, notwithstanding government commune of Kibilira, these did occur. Rwanda's lack of resources does not jus- statistics, Tutsi face widespread and Nevertheless, following the appeal tify the fact that detainees were denied deep-seated discrimination in employ- launched by the government and food for several days, were confined in ment and education. Although this is not removal of some high-ranking officials of dark punishment cells, were beaten, tor- discussed openly as a national policy the prefecture of Gisenyi and the com- tured, and in some cases killed. Mr. issue, it is a common practice. Africa mune of Kibilira, the situation was Mukandoli's claim that these depriva- Watch has collected testimony that details brought under control. These measures tions and abuses are the result of prisons the relevant patterns of discrimination. denote the genuine readiness of the gov- which "date back to the colonial era" is Africa Watch has just released a 32- ernment to restore peace and order. unconvincing. page report entitled, "Rwanda—Talking Regarding the problems that cropped Contrary to what the ambassador Peace and Waging War: Human Rights up in the Murambi and Bugesera writes, many ex-detainees "have not Since the October 1 990 Invasion." IN THE NEWS In Liberia, Elections Are a Question of Trust The Liberiim peace process took a ing confidence, is the only way that Stewart, who along with Patrick Seyon step forward on January 10 when you can really succeed in having elec- is considered a representative of the Charles Taylor, leader of the National tions." Interim Government of National Unity Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL), Under the Yamoussoukro agree- (IGNU). resigned in protest over Tay- allowed the two main highways lead- ment, elections were to have taken lor's appointment of Nyondweh ing out of ihe capital, Monrovia, to be place within six months of November I. Monkomona as chairman of the com- opened and secured by the Ecomug Currently, the six-month election dead- mission. Stewart claimed that the peace-keeping force. But the interim line is being called a "floating" appointment of Monkomona. who is government's difficulties in convinc- timetable by Liberia's election commis- one of three commission members said ing Taylor to open the roads demon- sion, meaning that the starting date is to represent the NPFL. undermined its strate the uphill path ahead of credibility. After Sawyer asked her to Liberia, away from its two-year-long reconsider her decision, Stewart civil war and toward free and fair rejoined the commission. In a trip to elections. the United Slates in January and The Yamoussoukro IV peace February, the commission worked to agreement, signed in October 1991. convince largely Liberian audiences stipulated that all of Liberia's roads that it was indeed unified, indepen- be opened, and the warring factions dent of Liberia's political actors, and disarmed and encamped by January committed to seeing the process 15. On December 20, with the peace through to its conclusion—free and accord stalled, the Ecowas-backed fair elections. government in Monrovia imposed an While the election commission economic embargo on Taylor's has struggled to gain the confidence NPFL-controlled territory to force of Liberians. virtually every step him to adhere to the Yamoussoukro taken by Ecomog to make Liberia terms. Five days before the deadline, secure for the voting has been chal- Taylor re-opened the Monrovia- lenged by the NPFL. In early Febru- Kakata and Monrovia-Bomi Hills ary, the NPFL radio said that highways, but most of the territory weapons searches being carried out outside of Monrovia remained under in Monrovia by Ecomog were "out- the control of the still heavily armed rageously dangerous and unaccept- Sawyer called the opening of the roads a major step forward NPFL. able." The Ecomog force reported The opening of the main roads was not fixed. The commission co-chair- finding arms stashed where former characterized as a '"major step forward man, Patrick Seyon, said that the elec- combatants live. in the peace process" by Interim Presi- tion "clock should start ticking" by the Adding to the tensions between dent Amos Sawyer, but he added that first week of March. Ecomog and the NPFL are the actions the move "must be followed by the Liberians, remembering Samuel of the other warring factions. Taylor disarming" of the warring factions. Doe's rigged election win in 1985, are has cited clashes near the Sierra Liberian journalist and secretary- wary of placing their trust in the Liberi- Leonean border with Raleigh Seekie's general of the Press Union of Liberia, an election commission that is charged United Liberation Movement for Gabriel Williams, told Africa Report, with overseeing the electoral process. Democracy as a major reason for the "The process of disarming and Seyon compared the five-member com- NPFL's refusal to lay down its arms. encamping (the fighters] is very slow, mission to fish in a glass bowl, watched Prince Johnson, the rebel leader who painfully slow, but it has started. The by all of Liberia, and said, "It is signifi- tortured Doe to death, continues to opening of the roads on January 10 is cant that this commission holds togeth- display his brutal unpredictability. In the beginning. There may be instances er because we represent the best hope January, he reportedly executed four of violations...It's a delicate situation, and aspiration for returning the country commandos from his Independent but the only way we'll be able to talk to civil rule." National Patriotic Front of Liberia, about elections is to get the guns from The commission faced a confidence stationed at the Caldwell base outside the [combatants]. The method that is crisis almost immediately after it was Monrovia, for possessing Liberia's beint* used now, which is one of build- swom in, on January 3, when Priscilla new currency, printed by the Ecowas- 5 March/April 19 9 backed interim government. The pres- force has put Liberia on track toward tiative by the United States. Seyon said, ident of the Press Union of Liberia, free and fair elections, Liberians "We had expected that the U.S. would Isaac Bantu, and another journalist involved in the process say that full play a more forceful role in resolving were detained and threatened with international support is needed to the conflict in Liberia. When we talk execution by Johnson at the Caldwell ensure that such elections take place. with people in Europe about assistance, camp in January, apparently for not Equally necessary is aid to get the they pointedly say to us. 'This is an reporting on a press conference John- country back on its feet after the elec- American problem. We want to see son had held. tions. One potential barrier to full inter- what leadership the United States will While the Ecowas peace-keeping national support has been a lack of ini- take.'1' •

INTERVIEW: PATRICK SEYON, LIBERIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION CO-CHAIRMAN

atrick Seyon. an academic and president of the Uni- Africa Report: One of the first steps in the election process versity of Liberia, is co-chairman of the five-member is to conduct a population survey, but thousands of people P Liberian Electoral Commission, which was sworn in have not been repatriated. What problems do you foresee in on January 3. The commission is charged with conducting carrying out the survey? elections in Liberia within a six-month deadline, which was Seyon: The survey is critical because the commission must to have begun by the first week of March. be able to say what proportion of the population is eligible to vote. Otherwise, if there is a plurality, and someone chal- Africa Report: The election commission relies heavily on lenges that plurality, we could have a major problem on our Ecomog to ensure that Liberia will be ready for elections. In hands. particular, the disarming and encampment of the warring fac- We know that some 650,000 Liberians are across the tions, which has been bogged down, must be completed by borders in neighboring countries. Some of these people are the peace-keeping force. If the terms set by the commission very anxious to come back home. There is a repatriation for free and fair elections are not met, what recourse does it commission that has been established and is working to have? resettle refugees or returnees. The critical challenge—and Seyon: The Yamoussoukro IV agreement specified that there the basic condition for refugees or returnees to return to will be encampment, disarming, and the opening of the roads. their villages—is whether security conditions are such that For whatever technical reasons, the process has not gone as they can return and pick up the pieces of their lives without outlined. The roads are open, but full encampment and disar- fear, intimidation, or harassment. Now, fear and intimida- mament have not taken place. The commission is firm in its tion can be real or perceived. We hope that both the percep- view that unless the conditions for free and fair elections pre- tion and the reality will match, so that people can feel safe vail in Liberia, we will not conduct the elections. This means to return to their villages. I'm optimistic from what I've that all armed parties must be encamped, they must be dis- seen in Sierra Leone and Guinea that Liberians will return armed, and there must be free movement of people across the home once they feel that there is reasonable security for country. them to return. If the commission finds that there is some barrier to carry- The survey is likely to take place in the second or third ing out its task, it may be necessary to go back to the Ecowas month of the commission's work to ensure that at least a sub- countries to seek their assistance to remove whatever barriers stantial portion of the refugees have returned. A survey is not there are to holding free and fair elections. a census. It will be a reliable siatistical sample of the 13 Africa Report: You would suspend the process? counties or the 90 constituencies to give us some indication Seyon: We would suspend the process and go back to Ecowas. as to the number of eligible voters. We are talking about Africa Report: The two main roads leading out of Monrovia some 800,000 out of the 2.4 or 2.5 million. As you know. 50 are open, but there is a considerable amount of territory still percent of Liberia's population as of the 1984 census is under under Taylor's control. You've talked about a lack of the age 20, so that we think that we will be able to get close to resources needed to encamp NPFL forces as the main barrier the 800,000 or so who arc eligible lo register. to disarmament. But doesn't Taylor's reluctance to disarm Africa Report: Could you comment on your fund-raising play a significant role in this? activities for the election process in the United States? Seyon: It's hard to gauge from this point. If all of the bar- Seyon; Quite frankly, when the commission was constituted racks have been identified and all the living provisions were and inducted into office, we assumed that the whole process ready and Taylor raised objections to having his men of its funding was being handled by somebody other than the encamped and disarmed, then one would raise the question of commission itself. No one told us that we would have to raise his commitment. In the absence of that, one is not likely to the money needed for the whole process! We have spent quite say whether or not it is his reluctance. If the Ecomog forces a bit of our time and energy since we have been in the U.S. identify all of the living quarters required for encamping talking wilh different people for support and funding. these people and they have the armory to store arms, and then We are of the view now that perhaps the best way to raise there is reluctance or refusal to encamp and to disarm, then the needed funds is to requesi. a donor conference on one can ask why. Continued on page 10

Africa Report COTE DIVOIRE arrest operation" almost immediately after Taya's victory was announced on Cote d'lvoire's main opposition POLITICAL January 26. The violence apparent- leader, Laurent Gbagbo, was arrested ly erupted when police broke up a along with dozens of others on Febru- POINTERS demonstration Daddah's supporters ary 18 when a march in Abidjan degen- were staging outside his headquarters. erated into some of the worst noting the The opposition told Agence France- country has seen. Opposition leaders, sion's findings a new rallying point for Presse that four within its ranks had including Gbagbo, who is secretary- the opposition which had lost momen- been shot dead and 160 arrested in the general of the Ivorian Popular Front tum when Gbagbo was soundly defeat- ensuing crackdown. The ministry of the (FPI), and the Ivorian Human Rights ed by Houphouel-Boigny in the Octo- interior, posts, and telecommunications League's secretary-general, Rene ber 1990 presidential election and its acknowledged that two "illegal Degni Segui, were detained by the gov- candidates did little better in subse- protesters"' died when security forces ernment for their inability to control the quent legislative elections. Ironically, were forced lo use teargas grenades in estimated 20,(K)() who attended the gov- several leaders from the opposition had confrontations with the demonstrators. ernment-authorized rally. initially dismissed the commission as a The ministry described the demonstra- Facing an FPI-sponsored civil dis- government tool because it was domi- tors as "groups of ill-intentioned peo- ple" who "took advantage of the free- obedience effort called to gain the nated by members of the ruling Demo- dom and tolerance witnessed by the "release of our comrades." Prime Min- cratic Party of Cote d'lvoire. ister Alassane Ouattara has threatened country to undermine public security to take legal action against the jailed MAURITANIA and order." leaders. A curfew was imposed as of Jan- The march in Abidjan was part of a Mauritania's President Maawiya uary 27 in the capital, Nouakchott, and campaign organized by the FPI to Ould Sid Ahmed Taya scored a land- Nouadhibou. The UFD claimed that protest President Felix Houphouct- slide victory in the country's first-ever the curfew in Nouakchott included a Boigny's dismissal of a January 29 multi-party election on January 24, ban on political parties and the right to report which blamed senior military claiming almost 63 percent of the vote. hold meetings, but this was denied by personnel for a brutal crackdown on But the election returns were quickly the director of public affairs and public students in their hostels ai Yopougon. a followed by violence and allegations liberties at the ministry of the interior. campus near Abidjan, in May. The that the voting was rigged, and the The curfew was lifted on February 5 president had refused to take action opposition has threatened to boycott and by most accounts, all of the politi- against Army Chief of Staff Gen. March legislative elections. cal prisoners arrested after the post- Robert Guei, whom the commission The most successful of the three can- election violence have been released. considered solely responsible for the didates opposing Taya at the polls was The last to be released included 27 decision to carry out the operation, Ahmed Ould Daddah, receiving just members of the UFD who were being which involved assaults on and rapes of under 33 percent of the vote. Daddah. charged with incitement to violence. students. the half-brother of Mauritania's first The organization, which enjoys the The banned Federation of Students president, Moktar Ould Daddah, had support of many of the country's and Scholars of Cote d'lvoire (Fesci) the backing of the most significant blacks who account for 20 percent of held a number of protests after the opposition party, the Union of Demo- the roughly 2 million Maurilanians, release of the report. Agence France- cratic Forces (UFD), and a number of had threatened not to participate in the Presse reported the beatings and arrests other groups, including the unautho- March legislative elections if its mem- by security forces of 16 of the group rized but influential Islamic Ummah bers were not released. It is far from members, including the secretary-gen- Party, which have little in common clear that the group will now commit eral. Martial Ahipeaud, following a apart from their opposition to Taya. itself to elections. February 13 demonstration. After the Supreme Court rejected Adding to the uncertainly the threat In explaining the root cause of the petitions protesting the election from of an opposition boycott is causing in student demonstrations, Martin Djezou the three losing candidates on January the run-up to the March 6 legislative Bleou. a law professor at the University 29. Ould Daddah lold Africa No. I, "I elections was a statement on January 26 of Cote d'lvoire and a human rights regret this decision. I thought the court by the Mauntanian Armed Forces of activist, points to the almost intolerable had in its possession a number of con- Liberation (FLAM) confirming a pre- conditions for the approximately cordant facts and a number of elections communique that the group "25,000 students in a university which irrefutable cases of irregularity con- would continue its armed struggle was only designed to hold 6,000.'" cerning these elections, and that a deci- against the Taya regime. The armed Bleou told Africa Report that an uncer- sion to cancel them would be perfectly black Mauritanian group said that "dia- tain future upon graduation also "leads justified." International election moni- logue was impossible with the presi- the students to demonstrate from time tors reportedly acknowledged cheating dent." Taya has been accused repeated- to time in order to demand a change in by supporters of all of the candidates, ly of oppressing the black minority and the political system so that their but considered Taya's victory legiti- was responsible for the expulsion of grievances will be addressed." mate. tens of thousands of blacks in 1989 Observers have called the presi- Opposition members claim that the under the pretext that they were all dent's refusal to act on the commis- government began an "oppression and Senegalese.

March/April 19 9 2 AFRICAN OUTLOOK UN Truce in Somalia, But When Will the Fighting End? During the Cold War. Somalia was But the UN is hoping that a peace against Barre, including Aidid's faction never neglected by the international initiative it helped to launch can resolve of the USC, a rift between the two lead- community: A seemingly endless sup- the conflict. On February 14, represen- ers developed that countless reconcilia- ply of arms flowed into the country tatives of Mogadishu's two warring fac- tion attempts have been unable to from the superpowers, who were intent tions, meeting at the UN in New York, mend. Aidid reportedly bases his claim on gaining a foothold in the Horn of signed separate pledges to end hostili- to be the legitimate leader of Somalia Africa. The Cold War has ended, but ties immediately and agreed to a formal on his election as chairman of the USC the abundance of weapons shipped to ceasefire by the end of the month. But during the group's June-July Congress. Somalia over the years remains, fuel- the promises have not stopped the latest Ali Mahdi largely points to meetings ing the country's bloody civil war. round of fighting, estimated by the held in Djibouti in July between various Somalis have asked why the interna- International Committee of the Red warring factions in Somalia when tional community has ignored their Cross (ICRC) to have claimed 30.000 affirming his claim to the presidency. country, which has slipped into near casualties since November 17. Neither leader recognizes the other's anarchy since the United Somali The current conflict in Mogadishu is authority. Congress (USC) forced President Siad the result of a power struggle between The warring factions of the USC are Barre to lice the capital, Mogadishu, two rivals within the USC leadership, made up predominantly of rival sub- in January 1991. Some of the harshest Ali Mahdi Mohamed and Gen. clans of the Hawiye, who populate the criticism has been aimed at the United Mohamed Farah Aidid, dating to Jan- area in and around Mogadishu. Ali Nations. Observers have said that uary 1991 when USC forces under Ali Mahdi's forces are made up of the despite the international organization's Mahdi moved into the capital, forcing Abgal, who have traditionally lived in emergence at the end of the Cold War Barre's exit. When Ali Mahdi was the capital itself, while Aidid's fighters as the world's premier peace-maker, it named president of an interim govern- are of the Habar Gidir. Perhaps the most has been reluctant to gel involved in ment on January 29, without consulting striking element of the conflict in Somalia. any of the other armed groups fighting Somalia is lhat unlike most of the other war zones on the conti- nent, its 7 million inhabi- tants speak the same lan- guage and even share the same religion. Sunni Islam. The country is divided, however, along clan and sub-clan lines. While the USC groups remained at odds with each other, almost a year ago the Somali National Movement, made up of the lsaaq clan, declared independence for the ter- ritory it controls in the north, naming it "the Republic of Soma- liland." While Soma- liland remains relatively peaceful, the rest of the country is partitioned in a tenuous fashion among the country's several clans. On November 17. the current—and fiercest —fighting for control of Mogadishu broke out between the forces of The UN peace initiative has tailed to stop the latest round of fighting in Somalia, estimated to have caused 30,000 casualties Aidid and Ali Mahdi,

Africa Report 8 despite efforts by then-neutral clans to When the representatives of the two of fighting in Somalia could cause mass keep the two factions at bay. The threat factions emerged two days later with starvation if a huge international relief of other clans becoming involved on a the announcement that they had agreed operation is not carried out. Hundreds large scale in the fighting in Mogadishu to halt the war, Jonah was reported by of thousands of Somalis are displaced remains a concern, as some have The New York Times to have said, "We and in need of food, including an esti- already seen limited fighting against the really did not expect lo leave the con- mated 250.0UO of Mogadishu's resi- two USC groups. sultations with a ceasefire this week- dents who have fled the city. Many of The new secretary-general of the end." But aid officials in Mogadishu the displaced outside the country have United Nations. Boutros Boutros Ghali, were not surprised when the promised found conditions in refugee camps to be who took office on January 1, has peace failed to materialize. They have abysmal. In late January, the United promised that a resolution of the Soma- learned to be skeptical of any peace Nations High Commissioner for lia conflict is a top priority of the orga- agreement and have grown accustomed Refugees said over 75,000 Somalis had nization. The pledge by the UN chief, to seeing the combatants repeatedly fled lo Kenya, creating a humanitarian who gained experience in Somalia renege on offers to allow deliveries of crisis there. The death rate was reported when he was Egypt's foreign minister, humanitarian aid. to be eight per day. Without a break in was welcome news to the war-torn The ICRC said that the latest round Continued on page II country. Somalis had previously seen the UN move its office to Nairobi, Kenya, when ihe USC blasted into Mogadishu in January 1991. With the exception of a few exploratory visits, Whites Decide South Africa's Future the organization did not have a pres- The reform process in South Africa dum and promised that his government ence in the country from that time until has been called "irreversible" by most would resign if it loses, paving the way December 24, when Unicef posted four of the international community, which for a whites-only election. But the pres- workers to Mogadishu. is in the process of dropping sanctions ident also said that if the referendum From January 3-5, then-UN Assis- imposed on the white minority govern- passes, another one to approve the out- tant Secretary-General James Jonah ment. But the country's black majority come of negotiations—as he had went to Mogadishu to meet the leaders will once again be excluded from vot- promised in 1990—would not be held. of the two rival factions, but failed in ing on March 17 when whiles only go The Conservative Party announced his attempts to secure a ceasefire. Cou- to the polls essentially to decide on February 25 that it would participate pled with the death of an 1CRC worker through a referendum if the negotiation in the referendum after threatening a in the capital in December, the murder process that began two years ago boycott, which many within its ranks of a Unicef worker. Dr. Martinka should continue or not. reportedly preferred in the hope that Pumpalova, in the north of the country, The referendum asks, "Do you sup- poor participation could force a whites- led the UN to limit its Unicef operation port continuation of the reform process, only election. Political experts in South to one person in the capital. At the lime. which the State President began on Feb. Africa believe the conservatives have a the international aid organizations still 2, 1990, and which is aimed at a new far greater chance to win an election operating in Somalia, including the constitution through negotiation?" than a referendum. Upon accepting the 1CRC, were reportedly highly critical President F.W. de Klerk announced referendum challenge, the party's lead- of the UN and considered Jonah's visit the referendum the day after the right- er. Andries Treurnicht. reportedly said. hurried and ill-conceived. wing Conservative Party defeated his "Such a government deserves to be The UN nonetheless forged ahead National Party in a local election in rejected and 1 therefore call on all white with its peace initiative. On January 23. Potchefstroom on February 19. The voters to reject Mr. de Klerk's reforms the Security Council imposed an arms election had been heralded as a test of with great enthusiasm in his own refer- embargo and called for a ceasefire that nationwide white support forde Klerk's endum." the secretary-general said, if enacted, reforms, although the western Treurnicht has openly worried about would lead to a sorely needed, large- Transvaal town is over 90 percent losing the referendum. His efforts to scale humanitarian aid project. Huge Afrikaner and thus much more likely to win will be hampered by the refusal of stockpiles of weapons in the country be rejeclionist than the general white other right-wing groups to participate. render an arms embargo ineffective, but population, which is 60 percent The neo-Nazi Afrikaner Resistance the Security Council's show of concern Afrikaner and the rest English-speak- Movement (AWB) leader, Eugene Ter- for Somalia helped bring about a short ing, and far more supportive of de reblanche, announced that his group, ceasefire among the warring camps Klerk's reforms. Nonetheless, the presi- which supports violence, would do all which still seek international recogni- dent himself had visited the town to in its power to prevent whites from tion. On February 7, Jonah announced rally support for the National Party can- going lo the polls on March 17. The that the factions had agreed to send rep- didate. Theuns Kruger. South African Broadcasting Corpora- resentatives to the United Nations in The results in Potchefstroom were tion said the Boer Homeland Party New York on February 12 to meet with followed by renewed demands for leader. Robert van Tonder, asked for its mediators from the Organization of while elections by the Conservative own referendum, "offering a choice African Unity, the Arab League, the Party, which maintains that the majority between a free Boer state and a de Organization of the Islamic Confer- of whites do not support reform. Klerk, Slovo, new Third World South ence, and the UN. Instead, de Klerk offered the referen- Continued on page II

March /April 19 9 and constitute the major part of the human resource can be Continued repatriated so that they can take on the reconstruction effort. Liberia. We think that the support that Liberia needs goes Unless these things go hand-in-hand with the electoral pro- far beyond the electoral process. The day after elections, cess, people will look on the electoral exercise itself as a somebody will be in need of safe drinking water, somebody hollow exercise. If development goes hand-in-hand with will be in need of electricity or energy, somebody will be in democracy, then we must make sure that the resources of need of garden tools, seeds, and what have you, somebody development are put into place or mobilized at the same will need a job. Steps must be taken now to fully assess the time that democratization is taking place. We would tike to reconstruction needs of the country and to put into motion call on the UN family so that a donor conference on Liberia the machinery of the UN and other donor agencies so as to can be convened. A part of it would be for support of the rebuild the country and mobilize resources within the coun- electoral process, but the major part would be for recon- try itself, ensuring that those Liberians who fled the country struction of the country. Africa Report: What do you think are the main barriers to free and fair elections today? Seyon: Three major problems can be identified. The first is Exhuming Selassie the resources that are necessary to carry out free and fair In 1974, Mengistu Haile Mariam buried the ruler he elections. The resources must be available to conduct a pop- deposed. Emperor Hailc Selassie, beneath his office in ulation survey, to register voters, to train officials to man Ethiopia's Imperial Palace "to see that the body did not rise the polling stations, to get ballot boxes, and ballot papers. from the dead." according to Voice of Ethiopia radio in The logistics to move the ballot boxes to where they are Addis Ababa. Eighteen years later, forced from power him- supposed to be is needed, and computer hardware to gener- self and living in exile on a farm in Zimbabwe, there was ate voter rolls. All that, even down to candles to count the little Mengistu could do to keep the emperor's spirit from ballots after the polls are closed at the polling site so that rising into Ethiopians' consciousnesses when gravediggers you don't have the problem of transporting ballots that can unearthed Selassie's remains on February 16. get lost. If the resources are not available to do all that is The exhumation is the most notable of hundreds that have necessary to conduct a free and fair election, we may not taken place since the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary have one. Democratic Front came to power last May. President Meles The second is internal. Liberians voted in 1985. after a Zenawi's government has reportedly authorized the exhuma- new constitution had been adopted. The elections were gen- tions to highlight abuses of Mengistu's 16-year reign and lo erally free and fair, but the counting process created a prob- allow relatives of the dead to grieve. Most of the bodies arc lem. From that experience. Liberians have become cynical victims of the "Red Terror" campaign carried out by the about the process. And they have even asked if there is any Mengistu regime against its opponents in reason for them to trust that the commission will truly con- 1975. duct free and fair elections. It wiil be a major problem if the The day before Liberians cannot be convinced, through public education, Selassie's remains were that the ballot box is the best alternative to violence in resolv- found, the bodies of at ing conflict, and that it is therefore important for them to least 60 top officials of exercise their right to ensure that they pick their leaders in a the Selassie regime democratic fashion. If that process is not successfully carried murdered in 1974 out, it may pose a problem because there will be perceptions were uncovered from from whichever quarters that the commission will not carry a mass grave at Addis out its work given its composition and that there is some trick Ababa central prison. that the commission is going to play or that someone has The Ethiopian News been predetermined to win. It is important to win the full sup- Agency had reported port of the Liberian people to participate freely in the the previous week the exercise. finding of documents in The third is external. It is important that the observers, which Mengistu's mili- the international community, commit themselves to the tary council called for process. They must be willing to be present, on the ground, these officials to be executed. to see that the conditions for free and fair elections are in The monarchist place. The very presence of President Carter in Nicaragua Mo'a Anbessa society made a difference in having the Ortega government turn claims that Selassie was the country over to a popular government. Also, we're told murdered by Mengistu, who that his presence in Zambia made a difference. He was able has maintained that the to say to President Kaunda, "I've been there. I know what emperor died of natural it is to lose an election." It made it easier for President causes. A formal reburial Kaunda to accept that he had lost, and for him to give up for Selassie, who ruled power. Ethiopia for 44 years, So, those three areas—the resources, the full participation has been scheduled for of the Liberian people (who must be convinced that their July 23, marking the votes are going to make a difference and that the ballot box is l(K)th anniversary of the best alternative to violence as a means of resolving con- his birth.• flict), and the participation of the international communi-

10 ty—are the major things that could make ihe process a suc- a fallacy that it is the threat of force that makes people will- cess or a failure. ing lo work, whereas reason is what makes people want to Africa Report: Can you describe Carter's role in the peace work. President Carter projects an image of the United States process? How effective a moderator is he? that no other president has been able to do, except John Seyon: He went to Liberia after being invited by both sides, Kennedy. Taylor and Sawyer. He committed himself to participate and Africa Report: Amos Sawyer says that he wants Taylor to to oversee the election. He says that his integrity is on the line participate in the election process. Is this view shared by the and that he is not going to participate unless the conditions commission? for holding free and fair elections are fully met, and he has Seyon: The commission has not yet finalized the guidelines assured the commission that he will work with us to make that will determine party and candidate qualifications. When sure that we conduct free and fair elections in Liberia. those guidelines are finalized and published for everyone, He has become an elder statesman, and people are they will constitute a basis for registering parties and individ- impressed that his foreign policy, based on human rights, was uals for participation. not just a political gimmick—he has strong feelings for It's my personal view, not the commission's view, lhat human rights around the world. the commission should seek inclusion and not exclusion, You cannot help but be impressed when you meet with and that it should seek the widest possible participation of him. He expresses his concern over not giving the rule of law all Liberians and let the people decide. If they want Mr. an opportunity to work. He even criticized the United States Taylor, they will vote for Mr. Taylor. !f they want any other for rushing to war in the Gulf region and not giving diploma- person, they will vote for lhat person. The judgment is what cy a chance to work, and that there was a tendency lo validate matters. •

The United Nations peace effort has SOUth Africa Continued Somalia Continued been called a failure, but il has shown Africa of unemployment, violence, the fighting, prospects to feed Soma- Somalis lhat there is international inter- bankruptcy and AIDS." lia's hungry remain grim. est in the plight of their country. Coor- Shortly after de Klerk called the ref- Getting the two USC groups to dinated with the rest of the international erendum, the African National Congress carry oul a ceasefire is a daunting task. community and mediators on a region- departmeni of in formal ion and publicity Ali Mahdi calls for international inlcr- al level, it could signal the beginning issued a statement saying. "The ANC, vention, while Aidid rejects it. But of a more fruitful peace effort. On Jan- Cosatu. and SACP [South African Com- Aidid has report- uary 23—the munist Party] reject the notion of racial edly said he would same day that the and ethnic referenda, and any exercise agree to an inler- Security Coun- aimed at giving whiles a veto over ihe national monitor- cil called for an future of our country. The prerogative to ing team. Even if arms embargo— decide on the fate of negotiations resides Ihe two leaders leaders from with all the people of our country...A can be convinced Ethiopia and Dji- whites-only referendum is not only the to sign an accord bouti requested a hallmark of racism but also has the in good faith, as regional sum- effect of delaying movement toward their representa- mit. The Eritre- peace and justice for all people... tives in New York ans have offered lo send a peace- "As we have underlined in the past, promised they keeping force. the support of various parties in actual would, by most Elders and lead- negotiations will be gauged in elections accounts the two ers from Soma- to a constituent assembly which will be factions control lia's various charged with the task of drawing up a only a fifth of the other clans must new constitution." 20,000 combatants in the capital. Ob- also play a role De Klerk has defended his decision servers in Moga- in any ceasefire to carry out an all-white referendum on dishu have pointed agreement, if it the grounds that the vast majority of the out thai much of is to be lasting. other groups in South Africa have the fighting now is already made clear that they support the driven by hunger An array of negotiating process. and vendetta, for- Ali Mahdi claims to be the rightful successor to Bane details needs to The general secrelary of the hardline ces largely beyond the leadership's be worked out. black group, the Pan Africanist control. The most challenging com- but the world has acknowledged that Congress, which has so far refused lo ponent of a peace agreement may be the war must stop. The UN may be in lake part in negotiations, said that the the question of food: Without a a position to help channel this support holding of an all-white referendum ceasefire, large-scale food relief is to bring about a ceasefire and a "effectively nullifies" the talks under not possible, but aid workers say that humanitarian aid mission to the coun- way. known as Codesa. because it hungry combatants will noi lay down try. In the meantime, hundreds of shows lhat de Klerk and his party are their arms. thousands of Somalis arc at risk of "white supremacists." • starvation. • 11 March/April 19 9 2 ZIMBABWE reportedly brought the memo to the attention of African countries. Zimbabwe secured its first loan from The idea of transporting industries the IMF in nine years, the lending orga- BUSINESS which pollute to the Third nization announced on January 27. The World—where toxic wastes have been loan, worth up to $484 million over the BRIEFS dumped for years—in a regulated fash- next three years, is in support of the ion, has its supporters. The influential country's 1992-94 economic and finan- conservative British publication, The cial reform program. mistrusted the IMF and World Bank- Economist, which printed the memo, Earlier, Zimbabwe had secured cred- sponsored structural adjustment pro- expressed interest in Summers' ideas. It its from the African Development Bank grams imposed on them as a condition wrote, "Mr. Summers is asking ques- and the World Bank worth $ 181 million for borrowing. The economist has said tions that the World Bank would rather and $175 million respectively. that the memo was intended to stimu- ignore—and, on the economics, his The country's economy has been late debate on an unfinished World points are hard to answer. The Bank struggling since the launching of a Bank report on the global economy. should make this debate public." structural adjustment program with the Among the reasons to resettle dirty In a related development, a plan help of the World Bank in March 1991. industries in the Third World offered in designed to control global air pollution The program is designed to foster eco- the seven-page memo was that "a given commissioned by the United Nations nomic growth by cutting government amount of health-impairing pollution Conference on Trade and Development spending and liberalizing external should be done in the country with the was released in February which would trade, domestic prices, investment and lowest cost, which will be the country set national quotas on emissions that labor regulations, and financial mar- with the lowest wages." The memo could be traded among governments. kets, but an inflation rate above 25 per- added, "I think the economic logic The market-oriented plan would not cent and a worsening balance of pay- behind dumping a load of toxic waste in actually allow pollution to be shipped ments position have been severely the lowest wage country is impeccable between countries, but would let coun- hampering the effort. The current and we should face up to that." Among tries which pollute less than their quo- account posted a large deficit in 1991, the other disturbing points Summers tas sell credits to countries that did not as opposed to a small surplus in 1988. included to back up his argument are: meet their limits. The Financial Times reported that the "Under-populated countries in Africa government had hoped to avoid the are vastly under-populated; their air IMF credit, but the deteriorating bal- quality is probably vastly inefficiently TUNISIA ance of payments left it no alternative. low compared to Los Angeles or Mexi- Tunisia's first privately owned and The South African Press Association co City." And. "The concern over an managed mining venture, being devel- reported on February 7 that an authori- agent that causes a one-in-a-million oped by Societe Miniere de Bougrine, tative economic survey by Zimbabwe's change in the odds of prostate cancer is received backing from the World Standard Chartered Bank published in obviously going to be much higher in a Bank's International Finance Corpora- Harare painted a '"grim" picture for country where people survive to get tion in February. The Journal of Com- 1992, promising at best zero economic prostate cancer than in a country where merce reported that the corporation will growth. The report said that the eco- under-five mortality is 200 per thou- provide a $14 million loan and a $2.1 nomic difficulties caused by the inter- sand." million equity investment in the mine, national recession, depressed commod- The memo anticipated criticism that which is expected to produce about ity prices, and the absence of investor the World Bank is not concerned with 38,000 tons of zinc and 8.000 tons of confidence in sub-Saharan Africa the human face of development by lead annually and create 200 jobs. would probably be compounded by a stating, "The problem with the argu- The $50 million project, located in serious drought. The survey warned ments against all of these proposals for Kev province, will also receive a loan that the country's SAP faced a serious more pollution in LDCs (intrinsic from the German financial institution, political threat because of the difficult rights to certain goods, moral reasons, Deutsche Investitions Entwicklungsge- economic conditions. social concerns, lack of adequate mar- sellschaft. worth $11.3 million. kets, etc.) could be turned around and Fifty percent of the mine is owned WORLD BANK used more or less effectively against by Metal Mining Corp., the Toronto- every Bank proposal for liberaliza- based subsidiary of Metallgesellschaft "Just between you and me. shouldn't tion." of Germany. the World Bank be encouraging more Shortly after the memo was leaked, The German ambassador to Tunisia, migration of the dirty industries to the the World Bank issued a statement say- Karl Heinz Kunzmann, has said that LDCs [Less Developed Countries|?" ing that it did not represent the organi- there are 140 German companies with Lawrence Summers, the chief zation's position and that "Mr. Sum- investments in Tunisia, which he claims economist at the World Bank wrote in a mers deeply regrets the obvious lead directly to 20,000 jobs in the coun- memorandum to some of his colleagues misunderstandings and apologizes for try. Tunisia and Germany recently on December 12. When (he memo was any misconceptions it [the memo] may signed a cooperation agreement which leaked in the beginning of February, it have generated." provides Tunisia with $24 million in risked creating an uproar among the At least one Nairobi-based organiza- financial assistance and $9 million in developing nations, which have always tion concerned with the environment technical assistance. Africa Report DEMOCRACY DERAILED

Frustrated with 30 years of authoritarian rule, Algerians voted overwhelmingly for the opposition Islamic party. But the specter of an undemocratic funda- mentalist regime based on shari'a law sent Shockwaves throughout Algerian society, resulting in a military takeover. Stamping out the Islamic Salvation Front will not be sufficient to defuse the fundamentalist threat— Algerians' underlying social and economic grievances will have to be addressed.

r i I 19 9 2 lgeria believed it could stem the tide of Even though more than 40 parties contested Decem- Islamic fundamentalism by exposing it ber's poll, it boiled down to a contest between two par- to the rigors of democracy. It thought ties, the FIS and the former ruling party, the National that elections would allow the funda- Liberation Front (FLN). The other parties were either mentalists a voice in Parliament with- too small or too regional to be of any consequence. The out giving them any real power. But choice between the FLN and the FIS was seen by many the overwhelming success of Algeria's Algerians as a choice between cholera and the plague. As main fundamentalist party, the Islamic a result, more than 40 percent of the electorate, 5 million Salvation Front (FIS), in the country's first people, did not vote. multi-party general elections since independence caught Of those who did make it to the polling stations, many everyone by surprise. chose the FIS as a protest vote against the FLN, rather The prediction by the leader of the FIS, Abdelkader than because they wanted an Islamic fundamentalist Hachani, a few days before the elections that his party state. Most Algerians were disillusioned after 30 years of would get 70 percent of the vote, was greeted with guf- FLN rule. The party's mixture of Marxist economic doc- faws from journalists. But as results came trickling in trine and nationalism had left the country in a mess, with after polls closed on the night of December 26, this fore- raging inflation, few jobs, and widespread poverty, (liven cast became more and more credible. By the time all the a chance to express their discontent, the people voted for votes had been counted, the FIS had won 188 seats out- the FIS, with the result that against the FIS's 188 seats, right, just 28 short of an overall majority. Its closest rival, the FLN managed only 16. the Socialist Forces Front, managed only 26 seats. But the protest vote backfired. The FIS came within a Suddenly, Algeria looked like it was to become the hair's breadth of power, more through circumstance than first country to install an Islamic fundamentalist regime through the choice of the people. The specter of an through the ballot box. "The people must be prepared to Islamic fundamentalist regime sent Shockwaves through change their clothing and eating habits," said one of the Algerian society. Few were convinced that the FIS, once FIS leaders, Mohammed Said, after the first round of the in power, would respect the multi-party system. State- elections. The FIS had planned to introduce Islamic law, ments by the party such as "democracy is blasphemy" known as the shari'a. This would lead to such radical and "no charter, constitution, just the word of Allah" did changes as cutting off hands for theft, stoning for adul- little to reassure Algerians that the country would be safe tery, a ban on alcohol, and the adoption of strict Islamic in fundamentalist hands. dress for women known as the hidjab. Protest was widespread. Women's groups, trade But the second round of voting, in which the party unions, and intellectuals all raised their voices against looked certain to take control of the National Assembly, the fundamentalists. The country's so-called democratic never took place. The vision of an Islamic government proved too much for the military, which stepped in and cancelled the elections. "Democracy has taken a holiday," said the leader of one of Algeria's 59 political parties. The army justified its intervention on the grounds that it was defending the country from the threat of instability and civil war. It was faced with a dilemma—either to permit the election of an Islamic party which might prove hostile to the democratic system that had allowed it to come to power, or to call off the elections in the name of protecting the country's nascent democracy. In municipal elections in June 1990, the FIS had won 54 percent of the vote, but since then it had lost support, as people saw that Islam alone could not solve the country's deep social and economic problems. The gov- ernment believed that the FIS would do well in the general elections, winning a substantial number of seats. But it expected the vote to be fragmented among the many small parties contesting the poll and believed these could form an alliance to outvote the fundamental- ists in Parliament.

Africa Report 14 and Chadli believed that he could use this provision to contain an FIS victory. Apparently he had had talks with the FIS leadership on a framework for cohabitation. But while Chadli may have been prepared to share power with the fundamentalists, the military thought oth- erwise. Army chiefs forced Chadli to resign, giving them the excuse they needed to call off the elections and stop the fundamentalists from coming to power. The military is deeply suspicious of the fundamentalists and did not hesitate to crush their street protests of last summer, during which at least 50 people were killed. According to the constitution, the head of the National Assembly should have taken over after Chadli's resigna- tion. But the Assembly had been secretly dissolved at the end of January, as the Parliament's president was consid- ered to be too close to the fundamentalists. The military was given a free hand by the Constitutional Council, which ruled that the constitution made no provision for the prevailing conditions and was therefore no longer applicable. The army's coup was carefully staged to avoid the appearance of a military takeover. Prime Minister Ghoza- li appeared on television to assure people he was in charge and not the generals. But with tanks and heavily armed troops surrounding key government buildings in the capital, Algiers, Ghozali was unconvincing. Eventually, the generals settled for a live-man Council of State to fill the vacancy left by Chadli's resignation. The figurehead of the Council is Mohamed Boudiaf, a Abassi Madani, left, parties which were wiped out veteran leader of the war for independence. He was leader of the FIS, casting in the elections shouted loud- brought home after 28 years of exile in Morocco to give est. They claimed that the FIS the new regime a semblance of historical legitimacy- But his role in the June 1990 did not have a popular mandate there is little doubt that the defense minister, Maj.-Gen. elections to impose its will, pointing out Khaled Nezzar, is the strongman on the Council. The that only 3 million of the 13 mil- government of technocrats brought in by Chadli last Above, Algerians lion voters had chosen the summer remains in place, charged with getting the coun- carrying poster of the party. try out of its economic mire. new head of state, The FIS was also accused of The generals had spoken of the need to safeguard Mohamed Boudiaf vote-rigging. More than 340 national security and public order, but their real motiva- allegations of electoral irregu- tion was clear. Having snatched power from the funda- larities were laid before the mentalists, the military-backed authorities went on the country's highest judicial body, the Constitutional Coun- offensive to stamp out the movement. The FIS was one of cil, most of them directed against the fundamentalists. the first organizations to be recognized as a political Among them, the FIS was accused of intimidating voters party after the introduction of a multi-party system in by warning them that a vote against the party was a vote July 1989. Although the law specifically excludes political against Allah. These allegations led the prime minister, parties based on religion, the laissez-faire attitude of the Sid Ahmed Ghozali, to complain that while the authori- Chadli regime allowed the FIS to flourish, with the ties had done all they could to ensure free and fair elec- mosques as its political network. tions, other parties had interfered with the ballot. But all this changed after the coup, as the military- But despite the allegations, President Chadli Benje- backed authorities set about enforcing laws which ban did, who was responsible for opening up the country's the use of religion for political purposes. The first target political system, was determined to pursue the electoral was the mosques. "The laxity of the state for the past two process. He believed he would be able to keep a funda- years is to blame for the deviation from the sacred role of mentalist regime in check. Algerian law states that only the mosque," said Prime Minister Ghozali. As part of the the head of state has the right to reform the constitution, campaign to dismantle the fundamentalist movement, imams sympathetic to the FIS were replaced by state- Alfred Hermida is a freelance journalist based in Tunis who contributes to The Times of London and the Observer and reports for National Public approved clergymen. Other imams were arrested for Radio and Christian Science Monitor Radio. using the pulpit for political purposes.

15 March/April 19 9 2 NERVOUS NEIGHBORS

he military's intervention to stop the funda- The palace coup of November 1987, when Bourgui- mentalists from coming to power in Algeria ba was replaced by President Zine Al-Abidine Ben AH, was welcomed by the country's neighbors, was heralded as the start of a process of democratic T Morocco and Tunisia. The prospect of an reform. But instead, the government's stance toward Islamic regime in North Africa's largest state had the fundamentalists hardened. Since Ben AM took prompted fears of a fundamentalist tide sweeping over, the army and police have been purged of Islamic through the region. These concerns were further sympathizers and hundreds of people have been fueled by the fact that Algeria's Muslims are part of arrested. the majority Sunni Islamic faith, rather than of the President Ben Ali was particularly worried by the Shl'ite minority which came to power in Iran. success of the FIS, fearing tlnat a democratic victory Comments by the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) that for the fundamentalists v/ould encourage their it would "spread the faith inside and outside the coun- Tunisian counterparts to demand political recogni- try by persuasion or by terror" did little to reassure tion. Despite the promises of democratic reform, Algeria's neighbors. Morocco and Tunisia, deeply con- Tunisia remains a dictatorship, ruled for the past 30 cerned by Algeria's experiment with legalized funda- years by a single party, now known as the Democratic mentalist parties, sent delegations to Algiers to moni- Constitutional Assembly. tor the elections. The fundamentalist question has for months Both countries have banned their own Islamic fun- strained relations between Algeria and Tunisia. A damentalist movements and they used the street bat- number of Ennahdha leaders had been sheltering in tles in Algiers last June between police and fundamen- Algeria and the refusal by the authorities to expel talists as further justification for their decision. But them infuriated Ben Ali. Last October, the Algerian once the FIS agreed to take part in the elections and prime minister, Sid Ahmed Ghozali, was forced to abide by the rules of the democratic game, the argu- make a lightning visit to Tunisia to defuse the crisis. ments of Morocco and Tunisia were looking a little Tunisia refrained from making any direct comment shaky. on the FIS's electoral victory, but made its feelings Tunisia refuses to recognize its own fundamentalist clear by briefly closing its border with Algeria and movement, Ennahdha (Renaissance), as a political putting its security forces on alert. party. Instead it describes it as a terrorist organiza- In a speech, Ben Ali called on Arab leaders to coop- tion which has nothing to do with religion or politics. erate in the fight against "organized terrorism carried Ennahdha evolved during the 1980s, as a reaction to out in the name of religion." the authoritarian regime of the former president, President Ben Ali was one of the first Arab leaders Habib Bourguiba. As Islamic fundamentalism gained to congratulate Algeria's new head of state, ground, Bourguiba stepped up his policy of repres- Mohamed Boudiaf. He reaffirmed Tunisia's "total soli- sion. By the late 1980s, thousands of Islamic funda- darity" with Algeria and indirectly criticized other mentalists had been arrested. countries such as Iran and France for trying to Inter-

A further measure to eliminate the movement came were a coup d'etat against the Islamic state and the Alge- with a ban on street gatherings around the mosques in rian people, it said. "We call on veteran fighters, thinkers, the capital. FIS supporters traditionally gathered at the religious leaders, senior army officers, and soldiers, and principal fundamentalist mosques in Algiers at Friday all those who love Algeria to take a stand against this prayers to hear their leaders speak. The mosques were giant of power," said the party. too small to accommodate all of them, so every week But the FIS matched fiery speeches with an appeal for thousands would pray on the streets. Now this has been calm. Its leaders appeared to wish to avoid confronting outlawed, and riot police and heavily armed troops patrol the armed forces. "They want us to bring the people out fundamentalist districts in Algiers every Friday. into the streets so that they can shoot them," said As part of the crackdown, hundreds of fundamental- Hachani at the first Friday prayers after the coup. "But ists were arrested, including Hachani and other FIS lead- we will not give them a pretext." ers. But the repressive tactics of the authorities did not Despite the appeals for calm, some elements of the provoke the outburst of fundamentalist anger that many FIS seemed ready to turn to violence. Groups of young expected. The fundamentalists were in no doubt as to fundamentalist sympathizers have been involved in clash- what had happened: They had been robbed of their elec- es with the security forces across the country, resulting toral victory. Chadli's resignation was a ploy to enable the in dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries. elections to be called off and the events which followed The intervention of the military has only served to Africa Report 16 fere in Algeria's internal affairs. "The Algerians are fundamentalism. On the eve of President Chadli's res- best placed to know where their interests lie," he ignation, King Hassan warned about the dangers of said. Islamic fundamentalism. "Fundamentalism is a threat, Tunisia's interior minister, Abdallah Kallel, was because it is the expression of backwardness which more direct. The military-backed coup had, in his translates into a certain form of dictatorship," he view, saved Tunisia from having to deal with a funda- said, adding that the phenomenon would never be mentalist regime on its doorstep. In a speech to party allowed to grow in Morocco. militants, Kailel expressed his appreciation for "the Morocco has taken firm action to curb its funda- action taken to redress the situation, which will, by mentalist movement, Justice and Charity. The move- Its very nature, guarantee stability and security." ment was outlawed in January 1990 and five promi- Tunisia's newspapers, which are under strict gov- nent members imprisoned, while the organization's ernment control, rejoiced at the news of the coup. leader, Abdelsalem Yacine, was placed under house One of them compared the military's intervention to arrest. "a last minute change of direction by a train heading Islamic fundamentalism has not found Morocco as toward the abyss." fertile a ground as Algeria. This is partly due to the Perhaps surprisingly, Tunisia's fundamentalists did religious nature of the monarchy. King Hassan main- not denounce the coup against the FIS. Ennahdha's tains that he is a descendant of the prophet, exiled leader, Rachid Ghannouchi, was guarded in his Mohamed, and so claims he has spiritual as well as reaction. "What has happened in Algeria is not neces- temporal authority. sarily a plot against democracy," he said. Ghannouchi While on the one hand suppressing the fundamen- has tried to emphasize the differences between talist movement, King Hassan is also trying to tame it Ennahdha and the FIS. "in Tunisia, we are used to dia- and bring it into the political fold. Since fundamental- logue, to gradual change," he said. But these efforts ism is not yet the potent force it is in Algeria, he can to court the Tunisian authorities are unlikely to cut afford to adopt a more conciliatory approach. As part any ice as the government maintains there is no such of his efforts to court the movement, King Hassan has thing as a moderate fundamentalist. magnanimously offered to release the movement's King Hassan IE of Morocco can only be satisfied leader from house arrest. with the turn of events in Algeria. As soon as The reverse of the FIS in Algeria has dampened the Mohamed Boudiaf was named as head of Algeria's ambitions of Moroccan and Tunisian fundamentalists Council of State, the Moroccan authorities began to seek political recognition. The sudden cancellation treating him as a head of state. After spending the of the elections and the subsequent repression of the best part of 28 years in exile in Morocco, Boudiaf is fundamentalists has cast doubts on the chances of an bound to be sympathetic to the concerns of the Islamic movement coming to power through the Moroccan authorities. democratic process. • King Hassan shares Ben Ali's suspicion of Islamic —A.H.

postpone a permanent solution to the fundamentalist blankets and medicines for the victims of an earthquake. issue. In February, the military government imposed a The military-backed authorities know they have to act year-long state of emergency. It is doubtful that the on a social level to cut the grass from under the funda- authorities will allow an Islamic fundamentalist party like mentalists' feet. On taking over, the authorities said their the FIS to compete in any elections. The country's head first priority was to relaunch the economy. They seem to of state, Mohamed Boudiaf, warned against the use of have learned the lessons of the past. When in January the Islam for political purposes, while Ghozali threatened to fundamentalists tried to raise funds for flood victims, the ban any party which refused to respect the rules of the government issued orders banning any organization democratic game. from raising money for charity on the grounds that such Banning the FIS will not mean the disappearance of action would usurp the role of the state. Instead, the gov- Islamic fundamentalism. 'The FIS could be dissolved," ernment announced its own aid program for the flood vic- said one of the party's leaders. "But it will live on in the tims. hearts of its supporters." The fundamentalist movement The FIS may have been denied power this time around, was already well developed before it took on the shape of but Algeria's fundamentalists remain confident that their a political party. During the 1980s, the movement filled turn will come. The message from the leadership is the gap left by a morally and economically bankrupt state. patience. "Even if we are killed or go to prison," said Two years ago, it, rather than the authorities, supplied Hachani, "we will one day have an Islamic republic." O

17 March/April 19 9 2 BY GARY ABRAMSO RISE OF THE CRESCENT

In the aftermath of the Algerian military's crushing of the Islamic Salvation Front, fundamentalist movements in other North African nations are unlikely to challenge their respective governments. With the exception of Sudan, where shari'a law is being imposed, funda- mentalists across the region have been kept under tight control, with many of their leaders exiled or imprisoned.

rom Algeria to Sudan, Islamic fundamental- ism is growing political roots in Africa. When thousands of Algerians took to the streets in October 1988, protesters shouted variously in support of democracy, lower prices, and greater availability of food. By the time nearly 200 protesters had been killed in con- frontations with security forces, the name of a charismatic young preacher, Ali Belhaj, had become well known as one of the leading voices behind them. But there were few open calls for an Islamic state in those days that led President Chadli Benjedid to announce his plans to end the National Liberation Front's (FLN) 30-year monopoly on power.

Gary Abramson, a foreign correspondent and editor for the Madrid daily ^ El Sol, has covered North Africa for several U.S. newspapers over the last six years.

Africa Report i

<# n The Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) has taken up its mis- enced way of life offered a better alternative than the aus- sion of re-Islamizing Algerian society from the bottom up, tere society they imagine would arrive under a FIS-led relying on the neighborhood mosques and Koranic government. schools, and in some cases benefitting from the Arabiza- More than 300,000 young Algerians enter the labor tion program sponsored by the government. But it is diffi- market each year, just one of the burdens of the country's cult to know just where the dividing line is in its massive extraordinary population growth rate of 2.7 percent, but and recent political success between those who support job creation fell last year by one-third. One of the few its program for an Islamic state and those who want to ways out for many is to eke oui: a living as a trabendiste, or deliver a sharp reproach to the FLN leadership. small-time black market entrepreneur. Flights to and Its first political triumph in June 1990, in which the FIS from Algiers and Spanish coastal cities like Alicante are won control of a majority of municipalities in the first free full of young men loaded down with recorded tapes, jeans, local elections since independence, led to an even greater auto parts, and anything else scarce and portable enough upsurge of support. But within a year, its sponsorship of to make the trip worthwhile. One of these youths, observ- another round of street demonstrations, some violent, led ing the destruction in Batna as army helicopters circled the authorities to imprison its two top leaders, Belhaj and overhead for signs of disturbance, identified himself as a Abassi Madani, and declare a state of emergency. "bland Muslim." "You'd have to be crazy to stick your guts Six months later, the fundamentalists won 3.5 million out in front of the bullets to defend the FIS," he said. votes in the first round of the country's first free poll for Parliament. More than 5 million of the 13 million regis- MOROCCO, A MIDDLE PATH? tered voters did not participate. The second round, in Despite its closeness to Algeria, the public face of which the FIS was nearly assured of reaching an absolute Morocco reflects a mutual tolerance of things Western majority of the 232 scats, was set for mid-January. and Muslim that has fed the growth of a Muslim political The wide range of popular reaction to the army's halt- movement seen as considerably more moderate than the ing of the elections, removal of Chadli Benjedid, and FIS. In perhaps superficial terms, though the majority of repression of the fundamentalists, culminating in the Moroccans dress traditionally in djellaba and women party's banning in early February, gives some sign of the often cover their heads with a kerchief or veil, the woman fault lines in Algerian society. Many middle-class Algeri- executive who dismounts her motorcycle in a miniskirt ans say the country would have been ruined by a FIS vic- faces little reproach. tory, and Westernized women, in particular, breathed a Under the intentionally non-political name of Justice sigh of relief that they will not be "sent back home" from and Charity, Morocco's fundamentalists say they seek their jobs, see contraception banned, and girls sent to seg- social change through peaceful means and by example. regated schools, as some FIS leaders had suggested. But Unfortunately for its imprisoned leadership, this has also many poor Algerians seem not to have felt much alterna- meant questioning the religious rectitude of the Comman- tive to voting for the fundamentalists in order to make der of the Faithful, King Hassan II. The group does not clear their disgust with the enormous problems that the question the king's role as head of state; rather, explains a new junta recognizes it will have to remedy, at least in lawyer defending one of the imprisoned fundamentalists, part, before giving up power in December 1993, as it has there is some doubt among them that the monarch can announced. legitimately claim the religious leadership, which is a With its emphasis on justice and religious ethics, the strong factor in his popularity, without applying shari'a, or FIS had no trouble winning converts among the victims of Koranic law, to the country. the corruption and inequality evidenced by the comfort- Following a series of protests last year at the campuses able life of the old political leadership and the appalling of the Universities of Fez and Oujda, in which up to a hun- housing and other conditions in which most other citizens dred persons may have died according to some accounts, have lived since the oil- and gas-based subsidized econo- the fundamentalists have come under official pressure. my crumbled in the early 1980s. If the Western-inspired Their leader, Abdelsalem Yacine, was recently put under efforts to develop the country have failed, so argue many house arrest and the group is forbidden to preach at the fundamentalist supporters, the Western values which mosques whose imams are loyal to the king. In recent underlie those efforts are just as much to blame for the weeks, however, followers of Justice and Charity have dissatisfaction and emptiness which has gripped many been seen gathering at the conclusion of Friday prayers at Algerians. the mosque in Sale, considered a fundamentalist But support for the fundamentalists turned out to be stronghold. by no means universal even during the latest wave of vio- Other opposition parties in Morocco, such as the lent protests that shook nearly all of Algeria's 20 major nationalist Istiqlal party, appear to be adopting some of Jus- cities in the first week of February. In the Berber-domi- tice and Charity's return-to-roots rhetoric while steering nated mountain town of Batna, site of some of the worst far clear of any calls for an Islamic state. Their leaders also violence with 14 dead and 67 injured, it was not difficult to condemn the imprisonment of the fundamentalist leader- find young men in blue jeans who felt, despite the stagna- ship as a violation of freedom of speech, a particularly tion of the country's economy, that the European-influ- strong political issue in Morocco where a relatively free

Afr Report Pascal Parrot/Sygrria SUDAN, FUNDAMENTALIST FROM ABOVE The call for an Islamic state is being championed in Sudan not from the mosques but from behind the throne, in the person of Hassan al-Turabi, whose National Islamic Front was a coalition partner in the elected government of Sadiq al-Mahdi, overthrown in June 1990. Turabi's party is now considered to have masterminded the coup that was led by Gen. Omar al-Beshir and removed its erstwhile partner. So, rather than having to quash a fundamentalist move- ment from below, the military junta that runs Sudan is readying the imposition of Islamic law in a country in which one-third of the population is either Christian or animist. In government offices, women have been told to wear clothes that cover them from head to ankles or lose press questions everything but two taboos: the king's right their jobs. Islam, says Turabi, is the only ideology left to to rule and the kingdom's claim to the Western Sahara. inspire the younger generation. Moroccan officials like to draw a contrast with Alge- Most of the Muslims are Arabic-speakers from north- ria's experience with fundamentalism by noting the conti- ern and central Sudan. The junta is strengthening its links nuity of their society in the last few centuries, compared with Iran and is looking to other Muslim nations for finan- to the sharp break with tradition brought about by Alge- cial support. ria's war of liberation and three decades of socialism Its draft shari'a law is based on the one that Turabi, a under the FLN. jurist with degrees from the Sorbonne and the University of London, drew up under the dictatorship of Gaafar al- TUNISIA, UNDER THE THUMB FOR NOW Nimeiry in 1983. On Algeria's eastern border, where Islam is officially protected by the state, the Ennahdha (Renaissance) fun- EGYPT, CLOSE WATCH ON NEIGHBORS damentalist movement remains banned and its leader, The fundamentalist missionaries trained by neighbor- Rachid Ghannouchi, in exile. Following the FIS's victory ing Sudan have caused worries for Egyptian officials, who in the first round of elections in Algeria, Tunisian televi- have strengthened their border patrols. The Muslim sion offered brief reports and the government waited five Brotherhood, born in Egypt 64 years ago, has been kept days before commenting. under tight control since Egyptian authorities blamed it Despite Ennahdha's prohibition, Tunisian fundamen- for an assassination attempt against President Gamal talist candidates running as independents in the 1989 Abdel Nasser in 1954 and banned the group. parliamentary elections garnered 13 percent of the vote, The Muslim Brotherhood, however, has rejected vio- making them the second largest political grouping after lence since then, disavowing the 1981 assassination of the governing Democratic Constitutional Union. Last Nasser's successor, Anwar Sadat, by a fundamentalist May, the interior minister denounced a "diabolical" fun- fringe group, and has not supported Algeria's fundamen- damentalist plot to assassinate President Zine Al-Abidine talists openly. "Our differences lie in tactics...the goal is Ben Ali. Two months earlier, three of the group's leaders, the same, but the question is how to reach it," the Broth- including one of the founders of the movement in erhood's 72-year-old spokesman, Mamoun al-Hodaibi, Tunisia, Abdelfattah Mourou, distanced themselves from told reporters in late January. Ennahdha after some of their comrades attacked a local One of the country's leading judges, Said Ashmawy, is office of the ruling party and a guard was killed in the also one of the country's most respected authorities on flames. Islamic law. His challenge to ideals of the Islamic state, In contrast with the FIS, with which it claims to main- presented in books such as Political Islam, has become a tain close ties, Ennahdha recruits many supporters public challenge to the fundamentalist ideology, which is among intellectuals and the Tunisian petit bourgeoisie, at the subject of healthy debate in Egypt, in contrast to most times allying itself with leftist organizations. But that does other Muslim countries. not calm the government in Tunis. With 740 miles of Hodaibi warned, however, that the Egyptian govern- hard-to-patrol border with Algeria, no one was surprised ment's support for the military crackdown against the in October when an apparently fundamentalist attack was FIS could lead to a change in tactics. "What happened in launched in the no-man's land near Bir Rouman and Alge- Algeria is a message that the road to peaceful change is rian authorities quietly expelled nine Ennahdha mem- blocked with tanks and cannons, which means that bers to Sudan two months later. "If an Islamic republic these organizations must consider pursuing other takes hold in Algeria, Ghannouchi will be broadcasting on means," said Hodaibi, a retired judge. His group's pur- radio the following day, right next to us," said a Tunisian suit of an Islamic state, he explained, will remain peace- minister, speaking of Ennahdha's exiled leader. ful "for now." O

21 March/April 19 9 2 There is little escape * from hunger and i homeless ness in | Hararghe, eastern Ethiopia .IVIN6ONTHEED6E Years of tyranny ended last year with the collapse of the Mengistu regime, but now that the repressive machinery is gone, insecurity and poverty are plaguing many areas of Ethiopia. The transitional government, run by the victorious Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, is counting on the regions to exercise local autonomy to address these problems as the country begins the complex process of reorganization.

t seven o'clock every morning, residents of fighters from Tigray, it seems, still have a yearning for Addis Ababa's Hilton Hotel are awakened by their old plastic sandals and the open space of the high- the sound of a military drill. Soldiers of the lands. Kthiopian People's Revolutionary Democrat- Post-war reconstruction is always painful and difficult, , ie Front (EPRDF)- who took over Addis but particularly so in Ethiopia which is also recovering Ababa last May after the collapse of the from years of political tyranny. Ethiopia's transitional gov- Mcngislu regime, are put through their ernment, headed by Meles Zenawi, has stepped up its • paces on the hotel's volleyball court. They deployment of regular police in Addis Ababa, aware that look as stiff and uncomfortable in their new boots and the continued presence of large numbers of EPRDF sol- camouflage combat uniforms (reportedly a gift from diers in the streets could lead to friction. "Many local peo- Saudi Arabia after the Gulf War) as they are in their role ple, such as the Amharas, still regard the EPRDF as an of policing the streets of the Kthiopian capital, now awash occupying force, and they're not welcome," one observer with beggars and street-children. The former guerrilla said. Addis Ababa which now runs from 1 am to 5 am, but resi- widespread food shortages. And the region has been dents have become alarmed by a sharp increase in the plagued by insecurity since the fall of the Mengistu number of armed robberies recently, and it is understood regime last May, bringing relief work to a near standstill that the EPRDF now has orders to shoot on sight during in recent weeks. Relief convoys have been ambushed, the curfew. vehicles hijacked, and aid workers have been attacked. But while law and order is generally being maintained 'The general shortage of food is an important element in in Addis Ababa, insecurity in the rural areas is becoming the unrest. People are fighting for what little food there endemic as many administrative structures still have to is. Only about a third of the total needs are getting be established and there is growing conflict over land through at present," said Margaret O'Keefe, the United tenure. Nations High Commissioner for Refugees representative Official figures from Ethiopia's Relief and Rehabilita- in Jijiga. tion Commission show that 845,000 people are either dis- Jijiga is a microcosm of the problems in the Horn o] placed or "returnees" (those who have come back to Africa. Somali refugees, Ethiopian returnees, and locally Ethiopia after having been refugees in neighboring coun- displaced people all share the limited resources of a tries). Unofficial estimates put the figure somewhat high- region which historically has been neglected and pitifully er. In addition, 160,000 ex-soldiers and militiamen have underdeveloped. At the same time, local political groups been demobilized and repatriated into the rural communi- such as the Oromo (Ethiopia's largest ethnic group) are ties, while the government commission responsible esti- flexing their muscles for the first time and challenging the mates that another 100,000 ex-servicemen have demobi- limited authority which the EPRDF wields in the Ethiopi- lized themselves. an countryside. The charter adopted by the transitional government "Under Mengistu, these problems would have been last year gives Ethiopia's different nationalities or ethnic sorted out in drastic fashion," an observer said. "He groups the right to self-determination. As a result, the [Mengistu] would have sent in the MiGs to bomb a cou- repressive mechanisms maintained by former President ple of villages, even using napalm." Mengistu Haile Mariam have been released, leading to an In January, a team of senior government officials, Unit- upsurge in political tension and ethnic strife, as well as ed Nations staff, and representatives of international aid increasing banditry. An Ethiopian insurance company has agencies visited several centers in eastern Ethiopia, meet- begun offering a policy known as "B.S.G.," providing cov- ing elders, political groups, and refugees in order to initi- erage against "bandits, shifta, and guerrillas." ate some form of dialogue and reconciliation. "In receni "When the country was at war, there was a frontline years, the government used to send down instructions and you knew exactly where you were in terms of safe and these local groups were not used to assuming any areas," one man commented. But sporadic insecurity has responsibility," said Timothy Painter, the head of the Unit- been reported recently in many areas of the west, south, ed Nations Development Programme office. "Now they're and east of Ethiopia. Furthermore, the government has gradually beginning to take on responsibility and realize consistently failed to admit that a serious problem exists. they have to talk to each other if they want to solve these A foreigner traveling south by road toward Moyale on the problems," he added. border with Kenya last month stopped in a small town to "No one here wants to overthrow the transitional gov- ask local officials if the road ahead was safe. He was ernment, but they do want local autonomy," one Jijiga assured it was, but minutes later a bullet-riddled vehicle man explained. The government is unwilling to employ was driven into the town carrying six dead bodies, all vic- the strong-arm tactics used by previous regimes, and tims of "an incident" on the road. EPRDF soldiers are known to be reluctant to provide The area most under stress is Hararghe in eastern armed escorts for relief convoys, demanded by the aid Ethiopia, which includes the vast Ogaden region. Here, agencies. there is little escape from hunger and homelessness. As President Meles Zenawi told foreign diplomats in our small aircraft taxied to a stop on the dusty, windswept February that his government was making every effort to plain above Jijiga, men, women, and children emerged overcome the problems, but was counting on the regional from their nearby "tukuls," makeshift homes constructed administrative centers to deal with the security situation. from tree branches, cardboard, and sometimes sheets of The Ethiopian leader recently welcomed two impor- plastic tarpaulin. They clustered around the plane, its pro- tant visitors. President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt and Pres- pellers still spinning, in the vain hope that we had brought ident Ibrahim Babangida of Nigeria. The visit by the two a consignment of food supplies. heads of state was obviously intended to signal that The frontier town of Jijiga has been a center for relief Ethiopia is fast gaining a position of respect in the interna- operations since 1988 when tens of thousands of Somalis tional community. A few days later, Ethiopia's minister for fled the civil war in their country to seek refuge in camps foreign economic relations, Abd al Majeed Hussein, set up along the border inside Ethiopia. returned from Washington to announce that Ethiopia had However, the people of eastern Ethiopia live on a been granted a $672 million aid package to help rebuild the country's shattered economy. Peter Biles is a freelance journalist based in Nairobi, Kenya. 19 9 2 expressed disappointment at the slow pace of political endum on independence. Referring to the nationalities development. "Meles Zenawi wants to prove he's a issue and the government's decision to divide Ethiopia democrat, and everything is now done by consensus. along ethnic lines, another observer remarked: "We're in But nothing ever gets decided," one political analyst the midst of the most stunning experiment in Ethiopian complained. history. There's not much optimism around at the A bewildering array of political groups has now moment, but the challenge for the international communi- emerged in Ethiopia. The latest count revealed 150 differ- ty is to hold the faith as the experiment is conducted. And ent organizations, including those in Eritrea, which has 50 million people here are hoping it works." O

MENGISTU'S FORGOTTEN MEN

he officer in charge of Addis Ababa's Central Prison, When asked whether Mengistu carried out the execu- a wispy, youthful-looking man in his twenties, could tions himself, Fisseha replied: "I don't think so. He had all Tnot have been more helpful. On arrival, I thanked the machinery to do that." him for allowing me to visit the political prisoners, mem- He also said the Red Terror campaign, when thousands bers of the Mengistu regime, who have been held since of government opponents weise rounded up and killed in the EPRDF take-over last May. "It's a pleasure," he replied the 1970s, had been "out of control." enthusiastically. "Who would you like to see first?" But observers describe Fisseha as "a Mengistu hatch- He led the way into a dimly lit corridor where a group et man," someone whom the president trusted, although of men stood talking. "This is Legesse Asfaw," the officer Fisseha never held positions of outright power. However, said. The short figure in the blue tracksuit was not the he was a Tigrayan and regarded with some suspicion by one I remembered having seen on the podium overlooking other members of the politburo during the war against the Abiot Square 16 months earlier when President Mengistu Tigrayan-based EPRDF. Haile Mariam had presided over his last Revolution Day Understandably, Fisseha Is now trying to distance him- anniversary parade. self from former president Mengistu. "In the last five Legesse, a Dergue (revolutionary government) hardlin- years before he fled to Zimbabwe, he was a dictator. My er, former secretary of the Workers Party of Ethiopia and memories [of him] are not good ones. I remember him one of the more feared members of Mengistu's Marxist only for his wrong-doings." regime, was captured last May after making two He said Mengistu failed to seek a political solution attempts to escape from Addis Ababa. On the second when faced with mounting rebel opposition. "A lot of lives occasion, he was apprehended by local residents who would have been saved if he [Mengistu] had done so." showed considerable restraint by handing him over to the The former Ethiopian leader recently claimed in a tape EPRDF authorities unharmed. recording that some of his top military commanders, "I'm here awaiting trial. I don't know what I'm going to including Legesse Asfaw, sabotaged the war effort by col- be charged with. I've got nothing more to say," Legesse laborating with the rebel forces. When told about these mumbled, looking decidedly uncomfortable at the utterances from Mengistu, Fisseha commented: "This is prospect of being drawn into any further conversation. the normal excuse of all dictators." By contrast, however, the former vice president, Fisse- Fisseha said he and his fellow political prisoners ha Desta, who gave himself up to the EPRDF last May, (members of the politburo, the central committee, the for- welcomed the opportunity to offer his account of Mengis- mer ruling party, the armed forces, and other government tu's reign of terror and pass judgment on the failures of collaborators) were well treated in prison by the EPRDF. the old regime. "All of us around him were afraid of his However, they recently signed a petition to demand their power. He didn't abide by the constitution or the law." release, claiming that their continued detention without Fisseha, once one of Mengistu's closest aides and a trial was a violation of the charter adopted by the transi- leading member of the Dergue since its inception in tional government. The Council of Representatives of the 1974, claims there was no collective responsibility for transitional government recently established a special many key decisions. He cited the affair of the senior mili- office of the procurator-general to investigate the cases tary officers accused of plotting a coup in May 1989. of those being held. When the attempt to overthrow Mengistu failed, the offi- "My conscience is clear and I don't think there will be cers were arrested and tried. However, Fisseha said any charges against me," Fisseha said. However, he Mengistu intervened in the judicial process and personal- remains confident that any trial will be fair, adding: ly ordered the execution of the men. "This was Mengis- "Otherwise the new government won't be any better tu's decision, and these are the sort of things I really than the previous one." • regret. This was a gross violation of human rights." —P.B.

Africa Report ASSANE DIOP PLUS CHANCE

The new regime border raids from of Idriss Deby, rebels loyal to the which promised former president. to restore democ- But France, which racy after ousting supports the De- Hissene Habre, by government has resorted to and provides mili- arbitrary arrests tary aid, has be- and summary ex- gun to criticize its ecutions against suspected methods, reminiscent of those opponents in the face of cross- used by Habre himself.

oltram is a village in Massokory, about 85 On the battlefield, 15 or more burned-out Toyotas are miles north of Chad's capital, Ndjamena. strewn about, charred weapons still attached. These 'This is where we stopped Habre's rebels," wrecks, scattered across the sandy wasteland of Boltram, Capt. Lamine, of the Zagawa ethnic group, bear the inscription MDD, "proof that they belonged to tells us in shaky French. He leads us to the the guerrilla movement. battlefield where guerrillas of the Movement More than a hundred fighters wearing battle for Democracy and Development (MDD) were pushed dress—heads covered in cheikh kaki (turbans worn by back a week before, in early January. nomads), revolvers strapped to their belts, and Kalash- "We killed more than 400 rebels during the battle. We nikovs slung across their shoulders—buzz around their lost 15 of our own. Hie battle was fierce." To emphasize pristine militarized Toyotas, a modern version of the the violence of the clashes, Capt. Lamine points to a 2 x 2 camel teams of yore. These vehicles transport as many yard pile of dirt. "There, underneath, we buried 54 as 25 fighters, and strapped to their sides are clusters of rebels." Unless the cavity below was extremely deep, the rockets, rocket launchers, and bazookas. captain's claim seemed unreal: It would be impossible to Many among this Boltram loyalist force are members bury that many corpses in such a grave. of the Patriotic Movement for Salvation (MPS), created 25 March April 1992 by Idriss Deby in March 1990 when he was in exile in the Our visit to Boltram, then to the area of Lake Chad Darfour region of Sudan, near the Chadian border. where the rebels had infiltrated, convinced us that the Our guide, Capt. Lamine, had been a fighter in the scale of the guerrilla attack had been largely exaggerat- Armed Forces of the North (FAN) of Hissene Habre ed. How else to explain the fact that the civilian popula- before crossing over to the MPS three months before tion suffered no damage during the conflict? At Boltram, Idriss Deby seized power in Ndjamena in December settlements situated near the battlefront remained intact. 1990. 'Today, I'm 100 percent MPS," the young captain Few rocket shells, the preferred weapon in the Chadian tells us. conflict, littered the battlefield. The acacia trees which At age 27, Lamine is a veteran. The past 11 years of his dot the semi-arid land showed no sign of scorching. life have been spent as a guerrilla. "I left school at age 16. That said, without the airlift of French soldiers, the I didn't know what to do, so I became a fighter. For me, MDD rebels, who approached to about 250 miles from fighting is a job. I can't count the number of people I've Ndjamena, would not likely have been stopped at killed. Sometimes that bothers me. For example, among Boltram. The presence of French military backup in the MDD rebels, there were some former comrades of Ndjamena allowed the Chadian Republican Guard, num- mine. They stayed with Habre. Me, I'm for Deby now." bering 1,500 men, to leave their camp in Ndjamena to Lamine's experiences reflect the drama of the armed lead the counter-offensive. conflicts which have periodically ravaged Chad over The Chadian Republican Guard is composed largely of more than a quarter-century. The most recent episode fighters belonging to President Deby's Zagawa ethnic was an incursion by MDD rebels in the area of Lake group. The fighters in this force assisted their "chef de Chad on Christmas eve. The guerrilla rebels are some of guerre" in seizing power. Their ranks include Sudanese the thousands of Chadians who fled the country with Zagawa from the Darfour area. It was this praetorian arms and baggage after the fall of Hissene Habre. Most, guard, many of whom are MPS adherents, rather than unlike Habre who lives in exile in Senegal, took refuge in the 50,000-strong national army, which led the counter- countries bordering Chad, primarily in Nigeria's Borno offensive. state and in southern Niger. Both countries have served The commander of the counter-offensive, Mahamat as a rear base for the MDD rebels. Ali Abdallah, says he is close to Deby. In peacetime, he The rebels, whose goal is to oust Idriss Deby, "the manages the profitable insurance company, Star, in tribalist," renewed their attacks at the beginning of which the Chadian government is a major shareholder. February, before being pushed back once again to their Not surprisingly, Ali Abdallah is key to the MPS, giving it cross-border retreats. a politico-military aura, a kind of "tribalist Zagawa The MDD attack launched at the end of December shield," observed a leader of the moderate Chadian oppo- and early January came as a shock to President Deby's sition. regime. The president, who had promised "the restora- This view is not shared by many Searchtngfor tion of democracy to Chad," urgently appealed to France in Ndjamena's diplomatic circles. ivater: to hold back the rebels. Ndjamena sent word that a major "They maintain a reign of perma- Armed conflicts attack involving 3,000 rebels had occurred, and Habre nent terror in their overarmed Toy- have ravaged Chad was inches from a return to power if the attack succeed- otas. The sky is the limit for them. ed—arguments, it seems, that convinced the French They demand free drinks in the bars for more than a authorities. in towns. Sometimes they steal pri- quarter century In response, Paris sent military backup—450 para- vate cars, or shake down local busi- troopers—to Ndjamena between January 1 and 2. In addition, four French air force Jaguar aircraft stationed in Dakar, Sene- gal, waited, ready to intervene. Later there was astonishment that Paris would have come so quickly to President Deby's rescue. Not only did the MDD rebels number no more than 500, but in a com- munique issued by the French ministry of foreign affairs, the attacks had at first been referred to as a Chadian internal affair. Paris would later justify the sending of troops to Ndjamena by claiming that the decision was "tied to France's commit- ment to support the democratization pro- cess pursued by President Deby."

Assane Diop, a journalist at Radio France Interna- tional, is a specialist on African affairs. Africa Report nessmen," recounts a French expatri- the regime. The purges of the Had- ate living in Chad for the past 10 years. jarai and the January arrests of politi- The Republican Guards' exactions "TODAY, THE HEAD OF cal leaders are viewed as a plot by the leave one skeptical about Deby's Zagawa to seize absolute power. STATE IS SITTING ON A announced intention to democratize. Criticism of the Deby regime's The image of Deby the democrat crum- RAZOR'S EDCE," methods quickly flowed over Chad's bled one week after the failure of the borders. Paris, which had exhibited a December-January rebel attack. On the EXPLAINEDAN certain solicitude toward Deby up nights of January 8 and 9, the directors until then, began to change its tone. A of a number of public firms and mem- OPPONENT. MORE communique issued by the Quai bers of the opposition were the victims THAN EVER BEFORE, d'Orsay on January 13 denounced of a particularly brutal crackdown. "the toll on human rights in Chad." The day after, the Chadian minister POWER IN CHAD IS In Chadian opposition circles, of the interior announced 18 arrests many compare the methods used by DETERMINED NOT BY and four deaths, but according to Idriss Deby's political police to those humanitarian groups in the area, there BALLOTS, BUT BULLETS. of ex-president Habre. Among the were 60 or more arrests and over 10 agents of the Chadian security ser- deaths. In Western embassies, reports ^^^^^^^^M MHH^^^^^^H vices, the CRCR, are those who had of arbitrary arrests and summary executions were con- collaborated with Habre's former political police, an orga- firmed. nization responsible for the deaths by torture or summa- According to the minister of information, "among ry execution of 10,000 real or alleged opponents between those picked up, many of whom were killed while resist- 1982 and 1990. ing arrest by the security services, were Hissene Habre Since last October, the independent Ndjamena Hebdo sympathizers." Based on "irrefutable proof added the has devoted space in its columns to an inquest on human minister, "we know these people were rebel collabora- rights violations perpetrated by the CRCR. The newspa- tors." per explained that Idriss Deby's political police were Stocks of arms were discovered in private homes— trained by agents of the French Secret Service headed by additional proof, the Chadian authorities claimed. Col. Paul Fontbonne. This Arabic-speaking officer is offi- According to an investigation by the Chadian Human cially a close technical adviser to Deby. In an investiga- Rights League, each family in Ndjamena has an average tion by the French press, it became known that Font- of six weapons, a claim not denied by the authorities. The bonne knew Deby in Sudan and followed him and his overarmed population in the Chadian capital is a cause of troops from Darfour to Ndjamena. the conflicts which have ravaged the country from the In Paris, where policy on Africa is the domain of fall of Tombalbaye in 1965 to Idriss Deby's seizure of Flysee Palace, Fontbonne's analyses of the Chadian situ- power in 1990. ation consistently took precedence over the telegrams of Lol Mahamat Choa, the mayor of Ndjamena and the French ambassador, who has been posted in Ndjame- founder of the Assembly for Democracy and Progress na since March 1991. It took reports by Liberation and (RDP), doubts the Chadian minister of interior's justifica- Radio France International to prompt French authorities tions for the bloody raids. "I'll admit one thing," Choa to recall Fontbonne at the end of January. said, "nine member of the directing committee of my The decision to recall Fontbonne was France's admis- party were arrested. Four others were savagely killed in sion of error in its assessment of the Chadian situation. their homes by members of the security forces." France demanded changes from Deby to maintain its Choa is convinced that these "purges" are aimed support and the result was an amnesty declared at the mainly at "cutting off the head of the RDP"—the first end of January for all political prisoners, including Mal- political movement to have held a congress last Decem- dom Bada Abbas. ber in the course of Deby's promised democratization. Domestically, President Deby's credibility was In humanitarian circles, it is noted that there were damaged by these revelations. 'Today, the head of state many Kancm among those arrested or killed, a commu- is sitting on a razor's edge," explained one opponent. On nity which is located in the I^ake Chad region, through one side, his ally France demands that he democratize. which the rebels passed at the time of their attack. In On the other, members of the Deby clan, the Zagawa, are short, there is talk of "tribal score-settling." A connection not all in favor of the democracy option. Clan divisions is also made between this affair and the October 13, are currently tense. The Hadjarai, Maldom partisans, are 1991, massacres and arrests of officers or members of mobilized in the center of Chad, ready to exact revenge the Hadjarai community. Then, Deby arrested Maldom on the regime. As for the northwestern Kanem rebels, Bada Abbas, the number two in the regime and ex-minis- they have not entirely lowered their guard despite their ter of the interior, on charges of attempting a coup. Uiter, two failed attacks in January and February. In Chad, a frame-up would be revealed. Maldom, from the central more than ever before, power is determined not by bal- region of the country, represented the Hadjarai within lots, but bullets. O

27 March/April 19 9 2 IlliUJ MIIONIBY ANNE SHEPHERD THE ECONOMICS Is there an automatic linkage between democracy and development? Although Western donor-nations have conditioned aid on political reform, there is no evidence that democracy automatically leads to better govern- ment. Indeed, some autocratic gov- ernments have been efficient and market-oriented. Democracy, then, must be an end in itself.

ill political liberalization in Africa help or hin- democracy will result in better economic management, der market-based economic reforms? effective adjustment policies, or faster economic growth. As political considerations are added to the Ultimately, democracy's case may stand better on its list of conditions that African governments are own." expected to satisfy before they can get much-needed, yet One reason for the quandary in which donors and rapidly dwindling, development assistance, this question African countries find themselves is the rapidity with is of increasing concern to Western donors. It is also which changes are uppermost in the minds of the continent's new taking place, and the democrats who—newly in power or jostling for position finality with which in forthcoming elections—are fearful of what they will political conditionality have to offer voters in return for their support. has been added to the The question is worrying to both parties because agenda for the 1990s. experience elsewhere, and in Africa itself, suggests that At the start of the there is no automatic linkage between democracy and decade, only six Af- development. Indeed, at least in the short term, there rican countries—Bo- may be conflicts between the two objectives. There is tswana, Mauritius, thus an increasing tendency to emphasize the longer- Namibia, The Gam- term relationship between political and economic reform, bia, Zimbabwe, and as well as to view democracy as an end in itself, rather than a means to prosperity. The World Bank's vice As a recent briefing paper put out by the London Over- president for Africa, seas Development Institute puts it: "While there are Edtva rdJaycox, some encouraging signs, developing country experience in the 1980s does not give firm assurance that greater above, and Zambian President Frederick Anne Shepherd is a London-based journalist who has travelled widely in and written extensively on African economic and political issues. Cbiluba, right

Africa Report 2 OF DEMOCRACY Senegal—claimed multi-party systems. Yet during the lished, and we will encourage developments that lead to course of 1991, at least seven more of Africa's 53 coun- them." As a result of the lead given by Britain and tries held multi-party elections or reverted to political France, the EC has signed a charter which links future pluralism after years of single-party or military rule. Sim- aid to respect for human rights, less corruption, demo- ilar changes are contemplated in close to a dozen more cratic politics, and a free press. countries over the next few years. The U.S., mindful of abandoning old friends too rapid- At the heart of these changes are the hostile external ly, initially adopted a more technocratic, World Bank- economic environment and domestic policy failings style definition of good government. Increasingly, howev- which have left most Africans poorer today than when er, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs their countries achieved independence in the late 1950s Herman Cohen has made it clear that good government and early 1960s. This, along with developments in the for- includes Western-style political reforms. mer Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, has cast doubt on The U.S. and other Western donors have in turn been the age-olcl arguments put forward in favor of benevolent bolstered by the United Nations Development Pro- dictatorships. gramme Human Development Report, which—based on Expressions of internal dissent have emboldened mul- its conclusion that "the lack of political commitment, not tilateral agencies like the World Bank which, in its semi- financial resources, is often the cause of human nal study of why Africa has not been able to break out of neglect"—includes for the first time a "human freedom the vicious poverty cycle, concluded that: "The root index," ranking countries according to their observance cause of weak economic performance in the past has of political freedoms. been a failure of public institutions...Africa requires not The new consensus among Western donors on politi- just less government, but better government." cal conditionality was underscored late last year when The 1989 study, Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to the meeting of aid donors in the Kenya Consultative Sustainable Growth, has been taken up enthusiastically Group in Paris resolved to withhold further assistance to by Western donors. the nation for six months pending progress in both politi- Freed of the need to use aid to back their "strategic cal and economic reform. interests" with the ending of the Cold War, and under While the World Bank distanced itself from the politi- increasing domestic pressure to account better for aid cal aspects, the decision on Kenya—once regarded as a money—especially with Eastern Europe joining the darling of the West—sent home the message that politi- line—donors have added "good government" to the cal conditionality is now firmly on the agenda. What's checklist of conditions for aid. Others include free mar- more. President Daniel arap Moi's about-turn in ket economic reforms, respect for the environment, announcing that Kenya will hold multi-party elections curbing population growth, and promoting the role of this year vividly demonstrated the power of Western women. countries to influence the course of events in a continent While the World Bank's definition of "good govern- where aid accounts for 10.2 percent of GDP. ment" has been framed in technical terms as "a public What is less clear is whether political reform will nec- service that is efficient, a judicial system that is reliable. essarily advance the cause of IMF- and World Bank-pre- and an administration that is accountable to the public," scribed structural adjustment programs—at least in the that of Western donors has increasingly assumed politi- short-term. cal dimensions. A major source of discomfort is the age-old debate of In June 1990, British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd whether democracy is a prerequisite for, or product of, set the trend when lie declared that "countries tending development. Western countries, it is pointed out, began toward pluralism, public accountability, respect for the the process of acquiring wealth through wholly undemo- rule of law, human rights, and market principles should cratic means that included autocratic regimes at home, be encouraged." slavery and colonialism overseas. Demands for political Shortly after, at the francophone summit in La Baule, liberalization came much later. President Mitterrand added: "We do not conceal our Similarly, the "tigers" in Southeast Asia such as South expectation that true democracies with multi-partyism, Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore have all been nurtured in free elections, and respect for human rights will be estab- quasi-autocratic environments. Moves toward greater 29 M a r c h / A p r i I I 9 9 2 political freedom have followed only recently and, in based economic reforms. But it is conceivable that an many cases, still do not satisfy Western criteria. opposition party could rally popular support against IMF In Africa itself, many of the countries which at least and World Bank-style reforms. The real test of the West's until recently were regarded as having relatively efficient commitment to lofty political ideals would come if such a administrations, such as Togo, Kenya, and Malawi, could party won democratic elections. hardly claim to be democratic. Yet Western history, and recent events in the Eastern Similarly, in countries that have been through cycles bloc, suggest that political democracy is unsustainable of military and civilian rule, such as Nigeria and Ghana, unless coupled with markets over the longer term. More- there is little evidence linking more participatory forms over, a major finding of the World Bank study is that in of government with better economic performance. As the long term structural adjustment programs will only the Overseas Development Institute paper notes: "Demo- succeed if they have public support. As World Bank Vice cratic regimes appear to be no more successful than President for Africa Edward V.K. Jaycox puts it: "You authoritarian ones in achieving economic growth or a can't have an uninformed and non-participatory popula- lower degree of income inequality." tion, and a massive theft of public funds, and have devel- Indeed, empirical studies carried out by the Institute opment." suggest that "authoritarian rule is likely to generate high- The most poignant illustration of this thesis is er domestic savings as a basis for higher levels of growth undoubtedly Zambia where, after 21 years of rule whether by forcing public saving or by promoting inegal- marked by a zigzag pattern of capitulating to the IMF and itarian policies which indirectly assist higher growth." World Bank one day and to popular demands the next, Democratic governments, the paper adds, have not President Kenneth Kaunda had led a once-flourishing necessarily proved better at administering austerity mea- country to an economic standstill. sures and may in fact be at a disadvantage. "Whether Despite his trade union background, the country's democratic or authoritarian, elected or not, weak political new president and head of the Movement for Multi-party rulers unable to command support from divided parties, Democracy, Frederick Chiluba, grasped from the start coalitions, legislatures, or key support groups cannot ini- that he would have no choice but to implement the harsh tiate broad economic reform programs," the paper notes. measures that Kaunda's United National Independence An example of this often cited in Africa is Ghana—the Party postponed. IMF's star pupil—which, many economists contend, is "We explained that before the elections, we explained unlikely to have been able to undergo structural adjust- it during the elections, and we have explained it after the ment for so long without a strong military government, elections," noted Zambia's acting vice president, Godfrey albeit one that has enjoyed a fair degree of public sup- Miyanda. As a result, the Chiluba government, still rid- port. ing the wave of popular sentiment that swept it to power Probably the strongest correlation that researchers in October, has been able to lift subsidies on maize meal, have come up with is between political instability and paving the way for a resumption of dealings with the IMF poor economic performance. Yet, at least in the short and World Bank, and unblocking crucial aid. run, analysts note, the transition from single-party and The Chiluba government has demonstrated in several military regimes to democracy is likely to exacerbate other ways how a peaceful change of administration can instability. contribute to better government, and hence better long- A few African countries, notably Benin, Zambia, Cape term economic prospects. Soon after assuming power, Verde,and Sao Tome and Principe, have achieved this Chiluba—often compared to Poland's Lech Walesa— transition peacefully. In others, where autocratic rulers announced a massive privatization program which could have yielded to half-measures and are still struggling for earn state coffers $2 billion, to help offset the $7 billion their political survival, such as Zaire and Togo, economic debt he inherited. Ten thousand ghost workers have circumstances have deteriorated drastically and are scar- been knocked off the payroll; concerted efforts are being ing away foreign investors. Even in countries that have made to tackle key policy failings of the past, such as the turned full circle, and where democratic elections are singular pursuit of copper; and additional incentives are scheduled to take place this year, like Kenya and Ghana, being given to foreign investors. question marks over the outcome of elections have led to Zambia's reformers have added another key dimen- a wait-and-see attitude on the part of the private sector. sion to the development versus democracy debate, com- Countries undertaking both political and economic forting to Western donors and African democrats seek- reform are learning that there are often conflicts ing to break the political deadlock in their countries. This between the two. Mozambique's industrial sector, for is the often repeated conviction of the MMD that example, has been virtually crippled by strikes which whether or not democracy leads to immediate material have rocked the country ever since it lifted the ban on benefits, it is a goal to be striven for in and of itself. As industrial action, and in response to wages which have Vice President Miyanda puts it, "The desire for freedom been suppressed as part of an austerity program. is inborn in all of us. There are fears that democracy So far, Western donors have assumed that democrati- won't bring growth, but I wouldn't swap it for anything cally elected governments will also endorse market- else." O

Africa Report 30 BYMARK HUBAND

he growing clash of political cultures which is Two years after Africa's reform emerging out of the democratic movements throughout West and Central Africa is the as-yet movement got under way, opposition largely unfought battle which will decide the Tcharacter of the continent's future. As reformist parties parties are finding it difficult to build gear up to the real challenge of overthrowing 30 years of entrenched single-party rule against the background of multi-partyism within a culture of worsening economic decline, the realization that after two years of protests, only three of the region's mainland dic- authoritarian rule. One complicating tators have been ousted is necessarily forcing a rethink- ing of approach by the reformers. factor is the military, which for years So far, democracy has rid only one mainland West African country—Benin—of a single-party ruler. Civil war was used to prop up autocratic in Liberia brought the painful end of Samuel Doe, and a military uprising led to the overthrow of Mali's corrupt regimes and crush dissent, but now dictator, Moussa Traore. Even now, few reformers in the region actually believe Benin provides a beacon of hope wants a role in the emerging for other countries. The disastrous rule of the pseudo- Marxist Mathieu Kerekou resulted in such a weak admin- democratic process—and has the istration that democracy is regarded as having been less influential in his demise than his own failure to find the power to back up its ambitions. enthusiasm to continue. MlttA R t Elsewhere, opposition parties are now finding them- mean excluding non-democrats from the reform process, selves forced into self-analysis as they struggle to build a and will necessitate taking tough action against those who foundation for their support within a culture of single- try to halt it. It would, for example, logically mean that party rule whose former proponents actually appear Congo's army chief of staff, Gen. Jean Marie Michel stronger than they were before demands for political Mokoko, be tried for treason. change began to take root in the autumn of 1989. This is clearly not going to happen, mainly due to the From all points of view, credibility has become the key lack of credibility afforded the reformers in the wake of issue. Democracy's weakness is that it necessarily forces these military uprisings. In both cases, the reformist gov- accountability, thereby depriving governments of the ernments were proved to be weak, lacking leadership and opportunity to conceal mistakes. Whereas the dictators having made serious errors. Members of Togo's legisla- had the relatively straightforward task of creating admin- ture took the decision to ban Eyadema's Rally of the istrations which had the almost sole task of ensuring the Togolese People Party while Koffigoh was out of the preservation of the regime, democratic governments are country. The decision, which the opposition leader, Edem faced with institutionalized scrutiny, checks and balances, Kodjo, says was taken by the national conference and not the absence of fear within the administration, and a hon- by the legislature, reflected the demands of hardliners eymoon period which has now come to an abrupt end. within the government, and was not approved by Kof- Two attempted coups d'etat, in Togo last December figoh himself. and Congo in January, marked the end of the honeymoon In Congo, errors on the part of Prime Minister Andre for all the reformist governments of the region. Both Milongo also fueled the fire of discontent within particu- events raised questions which few people ask during a larly unsympathetic sectors of the armed forces. Three honeymoon. Having forced these questions onto the polit- days before the soldiers seized the national radio and tele- ical agenda of both countries, as well as forcing reformers vision stations and occupied the international airport in in other countries to take note, the military in both coun- Brazzaville, they had aired their objection to the appoint- tries then proceeded to insist that they also had a role to ment of Col. Michel Gangouo as minister of defense, as play within the democratic process and that effectively well as to government reform of other sections of the they would not allow anybody to deny them that role, on armed forces. Milongo refused to listen to the army's the muddled grounds that such a denial would be innately objections, and was about to be censured by the legisla- undemocratic. ture when the mutiny took place. Milongo's decision to flee Brazzaville during the uprising further undermined second similarity between the two countries is his credibility, as he was reluctant to put himself in the fir- clearly the composition of the armies. Both are ing line when the time came to defend his own decisions. Adominated by the ethnic groups of the country's His difficulties were made more complicated by the respective presidents, both of whom are disgraced but nature of the army's objections. Milongo said reform of still hold varying degrees of power. In Togo, members of the army command structure had to be detribalized. The President Gnassingbe Eyadema's family led the coup army high command responded by saying that the which resulted in a missile attack on the residence of reforms were intended as a way of improving Milongo's Prime Minister Joseph Kokou Koffigoh and forced the chances in the forthcoming presidential election. unbanning of the former ruling party, which was the sol- The events in both Lome and Brazzaville show that the diers' major demand. army believes it has a direct and rightful interventionist A third similarity, in terms of the events themselves, role, and that it is prepared to argue that its role is based was the silence of the respective heads of state when the on democratic principles. This conundrum is proving an reformist governments were under threat from the mili- extremely difficult one for the reformers to contend with. tary forces. Neither Eyadema nor Congo's president, Their difficulty has both historical and political founda- Denis Sassou-Nguesso, raised a finger to prevent the tions. The armies' traditional role, particularly in Togo, army from taking over, imposing curfews, killing demon- had been to ensure the silence of opposition to the strators in both countries, and generally discrediting the regimes which created them. Both countries' national reformists. It is clear that, given that the reformist gov- conferences revealed the full horror of the experience of ernments are currently the only available bodies in each political prisoners who had endured torture, imprison- country with any hope of steering the changes, the presi- ment without trial, and the despair of not knowing dents' lack of support for them can only realistically be whether they would ever see the reforms now being ten- interpreted as a sign of their lack of support for the tatively carried out. reforms themselves. The clearly political role of the armies as the oppres- This is of little surprise. But it raises a further question sive arms of the regimes is now becoming the starkest of how far reform has to go before it actually has the hangover from the years of one-party rule. This issue is approval of the most influential members of society. It is one that few of the national conferences in the region clear that the events in Togo and Congo have shown that actually faced in any practical way, largely due to fear of a total overhaul of all institutions is necessary. This will the armies taking action to disband the conferences, as happened in Togo. Now that at least two armies in the Mark Huband is West Africa correspondent of The Guardian (Umdon).

Africa Report region have revealed the hands they talent being excluded from the admin- are prepared to play, it is the question istration. of the transitional governments' credi- THE POLITICAL ROLE However, a major problem facing bility, as well as of how deep-rooted reformist parties throughout West OF THE ARMIES AS THE democracy has become after two years, Africa is the nature of their support. that is now necessary for the reformers OPPRESSIVE ARMS OF While the academics and urban profes- to face. sionals have often been in the van- Compared to the armies, as institu- THE REGIMES IS THE guard of reform, convincing the rural tions within the state, the transitional peasants of the promise held by STARKEST HANGOVER governments lack credibility. They democracy has become increasingly were not elected, they were largely cre- FROM THE YEARS OF difficult with the logic of the argu- ated by reformers who come from ments which initially helped to create either the academic or professional ONE-PARTY RULE. the opposition parties. It is on the vil- sectors and find it difficult to claim a lage level that the ethnic issue is most popular appeal on anything but a gener- potent. The dictators' exclusion of al level, and they are made up of people who have shown some ethnic groups in favor of their own inevitably lies at themselves capable of making serious errors. the root of some opposition parties' support, while those The military in both Togo and Congo have waited for parties are theoretically trying to move away from ethnic- the reformers to make their mistakes, and then tried to ity. The Ewe in Togo are pro-reform because of their step in as a credible alternative as the true defenders of exclusion from power under Eyadema, and for this reason democracy. By contrast to the civilian reformers, the have dominated posts in the reformist government. But armies are strong and have proved themselves capable of they are therefore faced with the dilemma of having a playing a role in the affairs of state, in such a way as to philosophical objection to using the ethnic issue, but at have allowed the dictators many years of uninterrupted the same time knowing they would be ignoring a vital and dictatorship, stamping out dissent as a sign of their effec- enduring aspect of the political history of the rulers they tiveness. want to depose, if they ignored it. Equally, they want to The military's argument has certainly failed to con- win votes and know that to do so means confronting their vince the more educated sectors. Whether it has gar- opponents on every level. nered any sympathy among the uneducated, who feel that Conservative members of the old ruling parties in the reformers are too quick to condemn the past and the other parts of the region who have managed to retain people who dominated it, is clearly difficult to say. While power in the face of the democratic challenge acknowl- 50,000 people took to the streets of Lome on February 8 edge that the stalling of the democratic process will to protest about the role of the military, there has been lit- heighten the importance of the ethnic issue. Equally, they tle protest in the north of the country, the region from regard economic improvement as the key to the success which much of the army top brass comes. of the democratic process. As the lel-up in Africa's eco- That raises a further question over the issue of credi- nomic fortunes becomes increasingly evasive, the disap- bility and the armies' claims of having democratic creden- pointment of popular expectations of the democratic tials. In both Togo and Congo, the senior ranks are domi- movements and the difficulties being faced by reformers nated by the same ethnic groups as the respective either in government or opposition to bring change and a presidents. In Togo, the Koffigoh administration was clear lead toward a better future are threatening to throw largely dominated by the Ewe, who are most numerous in the entire process off track. the south of the country. In Congo, Sassou-Nguesso, While the sensation of democracy cannot now be despite his supposed Marxist leanings, preferred the denied to the people who have already felt it, it is clear army to remain in the hands of officers from his region, a that the character it must take on to survive within the factor which led to Milongo's attempts at forcing through context in which it is trying to be born will be shaped by reforms. the violence of Congo and Togo. Both governments made The ethnic element, which will soon come to the fore mistakes. What is becoming widely acknowledged is the as a major part of the overall debate on the nature of the necessity to create a climate in which these mistakes do democracy Africa's reformers wish to create, is only now not deprive the reformers of a second chance at leader- starting to play a more open role. The most successful of ship. Africa's post-independence leaders tried to establish an But while armies remain political and the heads of ethnic balance within government as a way of offsetting state effectively give their approval to plots aimed at the potential geo-political crisis created by the inheritance undermining the reform process, whatever its shortcom- of colonial borders. Now one of the major areas where the ings, more drastic steps clearly need to be taken to sever reformist politicians diverge from the established view is the military from the political power. Until this happens, on this issue. Generally, the reformist view prevailing in the reformers will find it hard to convince the people that West Africa is that maintaining an ethnic balance is a form they have created a more solid basis for development of positive discrimination which leads to some of the best than the dictators they have fought to overthrow. O

March.'April 19 9 2 IIIICIf<™ 1HIII PETER DA COSTA

One of the last of Africa's old-guard politicians, Sir Dawda Jawara, leader of the Gambia for 30 years, has apparently decided it is time for a change. At first withdrawing himself from contention in the May elections, he then relented and decided to run again. Jawara and his party have dominated the nation's politics since before independence in 1965 and his eventual retirement could usher in a new era of multi-partyism.

ince February 18, 1965, Gambia has been inde- ship of Prime Minister David K. Jawara, a shy, bespecta- pendent. This fact has escaped general notice cled former veterinary officer." As a student of Africa's tur- because few nou-Gambians know where or what bulent pre- and post-independence history. Rice would be Gambia is, and little about it is on a scale likely to surprised to see the 67-year-old Alhaji Sir Dawda Kairabe attract attention. A tiny enclave jutting into Sene- Jawara still at the helm and apparently as much in control gal, on the West African coast, Gambia is Africa's smallest as ever. and poorest new independent nation. It has no railroad, no Rut times change. With many of its population of nearly daily paper, no university, one airport, and one city...Slightly 1 million (320,000 in 1965) set to vote in a sixth multi-party smaller than Connecticut, Gambia does not loom very large general election in May this year, the Gambia is on the on the continent of Africa. Mapmakers, in fact, sometimes verge of a new era. Jawara marked its advent last Decem- forget to include it. This annoys the few Gambians who look ber at the fifth ordinary congress of his ruling People's at maps." Progressive Party (PPP), which despite multi-partyism, These words begin Enter Gambia—The Birth of an has never been defeated at the polls. At Mansakonko, Improbable Nation, a 400-page thesis, part anthropological, some 90 miles from Banjul, Jawara stunned the party faith- part socio-political, based on a year's research done in ful when, in a speech accepting renewed election as party Gambia (now the Gambia) by American journalist Berke- secretary-general and leader, he said: "I have decided, ley Rice around the time of independence. It is a volume as when my term expires on the 11th of April 1992, not to sharp in its analysis and detailed in its descriptions as it is offer myself again as a presidential candidate." irreverent—some go as far as saying disrespectful—in its Citing fatigue for his decision, Jawara said he was happy tone. to step down "because I do know that the PPP and the Were Rice alive today, he might be interested to know Gambian people are now steeped in a political culture little has changed. The airport, albeit much advanced (it is which has come to stay. We have, over the past three designated as a NASA emergency landing site) is still the decades or more, nurtured a political culture of democra- only one; the capital Banjul (then Bathurst) is officially the cy, tolerance, respect for human rights, respect for the rule only city, though urbanization has taken root. There is still of law. And I have absolutely no doubt that within this polit- no daily paper (with adult literacy at little more than 30 per- ical climate we have developed a team spirit." cent, it's easy to see why); Brikame's College of Higher Shouts of "no, no, no" greeted his bombshell, with Education is as close as the country has got to a university; crowds of party militants refusing to countenance the and there is not a single railroad in sight (instead, roads departure of their father-figure. As Momodou Gaye, editor varying from excellent to abysmal link the capital to the of the PPP newspaper. The Gambia Times, put it, "Party mil- hinterland). itants still believe he has a role to play...as president of this As tortoise-slow as acquiring the trappings of nation- country." Expressing shock at the reaction to his announce- hood may have been, the Gambia's achievement has been ment, Jawara mollified panic-stricken delegates by promis- to carve itself an international niche far greater than its ing to reconsider if they felt his timing had been bad. diminutive size. Old-timers, while ruing the state of the In the wake of the December 4 affair, Jawara confirmed roads or the lack of a work ethic among today's civil ser- the fears of his supporters when, during the Organization vants, will be the first to blow the country's trumpet as a of Islamic Conference summit in Dakar a week later, he bastion of multi-party democracy, a flagship of human told the Senegalese daily, Le Soleil, that once the PPP had rights, and a role model for Africa in terms of the peaceful come up with a new candidate, he would also be stepping co-existence of its assorted ethnic groups. down from the party leadership. By his return, however, "Since 1963," wrote Rice, "these friendly, easygoing his position had shifted. people have been under the moderate and capable leader- On December 12, Jawara told Radio Gambia he would

Africa Report 34 peak of his popularity. Now, who knows?" Whatever the analysis, all agreed that politics would never be quite the same. Matters of the succession—on which Jawara had remained silent despite a barrage of questioning that reached its peak on the eve of the country's Silver Jubilee of independence in 1990—inevitably took center stage once Jawara's volte-face had been generally interpreted as an act of altruism designed to save the PPP from itself. The most popular scenario is that after the predicted PPP victo- ry, Jawara will wind down his presidency and step down halfway through his five-year term after the party (with his guidance) has agreed on a successor. Education, Youth, Sports, and Culture Minister Bakary B. Darbo, the skillful technocrat who many had assumed was the automatic choice since he has been vice president for 10 years, emerged as favorite—only to be castigated by another PPP faction as a "tribalist." "continue consultation...and take a final decision." Under Darbo, who represents the cream of the educated intense pressure from party mandarins, by December 16 Mandinka ethnic group of which Jawara is also a member, he told the BBC it was up to the Central Committee to is identified by pundits as leader of the so-called New decide. The next day, following four hours of heated Breed. This Mandinka-dominated group of young intellec- debate, a PPP spokesman gleefully shouted from the bal- tuals is, say rival politicians, keen to infuse the country cony of the party's Leman Street headquarters: "Sir with its rapid development philosophy, whose corner- Dawda is our presidential candidate." The Point, a new stones are greater discipline and increased investment in weekly, described the event thus: "A deafening cheer rural areas. Old-guard politicians, an ethnic mix whose erupted from the street below, and so ended the tension maneuverings were largely behind Jawara's change of which had reigned over the Gambia since President heart, argue development must necessarily have Banjul as Jawara announced his decision." its focus. They make a persistent case for "the politics of Tensions may have eased, but analysts wasted no time consensus" and fear Darbo's accession will threaten their in brushing off the cobwebs gathered by years of political near-monopoly of commerce and rob them of what little ENDING AN ERA stagnation and looking at the jittery effect Jawara's bomb- influence they have left in the government administration. shell had on the party in particular and on the country at Some party hawks, members of the old guard, insist large. Many had protested the president's decision to go Jawara relented because he couldn't leave before the party because he was genuinely loved, argued some, and the agreed on a successor. In a closed State House meeting only man with the constituency, skill, and background to when a PPP delegation tried to convince the president to hold together the country's multi-ethnic potpourri. Others stay, insiders say Jawara expressed his disappointment used the phrase "crocodile tears," noting that far from that the party lacked unity over a new presidential candi- mourning the loss to the nation, hangers-on were crying date. Proponents of the "smooth political operator theory" for themselves, since without Jawara's political patronage prefer the version that Jawara knew his understudy was or personal endorsement of their candidacy, they would not entirely acceptable, but preferred the sentiment to never regain their parliamentary seats. emerge from the party rather than himself. Still others saw the December 4 affair as yet another What remains undisputed is that Darbo, also party trea- stroke of a master-politician, who despite his love of the surer, is the best of a cabinet riddled with inexperience and job, was shocked by the democratization trend that had mediocrity. Part of the Jawara legacy is that his personality claimed his contemporary Kenneth Kaunda in Zambia has so dominated politics that no one has dared to offer and sought to bolster his position by testing just how pop- their candidacy. Those who presumed between December ular he was. One even mused: "It was fitting for him to 4 and 17 were immediately castigated by party mandarins reveal his intention at Mansakonko, the Hill of Kings. For who view any hint of ambition as treason. All depends on if he had stuck to his decision, he would have gone at the how successfully the party can heal itself. The word, how- Peter da Costa is a freelance journalist based in Banjul, the Gambia. ever, is that if Darbo's group fails to survive the in-fighting,

35 March /Apr/I 1992 the country's second president may come from outside the Africa's highest), much of it misdirected and misappropri- PPP. ated; diversification from the sole reliance on groundnuts, One man viewed as an outsider with a chance is Sheriff which at independence accounted for 95 percent of rev- Mustapha Dibba, next to Jawara the man with the enue, is well under way with tourism and fisheries playing strongest power base. Dibba, a PPP co-founder in the late an increasingly significant role; work is full speed ahead to 1950s, was Jawara's understudy and first vice president exploit the scientifically identified offshore and onshore oil when the country became a republic in 1970. Differences reserves that may turn the country into a little Kuwait; and in ideology saw him expelled from the party and by 1975 the economy, under IMF/World Bank tutelage, has stabi- founding the National Convention Party (NCP). King of lized, making the country a role model for successful the Baddibus, his North Bank ancestral home, Dibba structural adjustment programs. found himself without a seat in Parliament after the 1982 But as Jawara himself was first to say in 1965: "Indepen- elections (accused of being involved in a Libya-backed dence is not a magic formula that will turn our groundnuts coup attempt in 1981, which provided the only serious into diamonds." Infrastructure remains poor, while rural threat to Jawara's rule, Dibba spent the election run-up development, largely in the hands of foreign NGOs, behind bars). remains slow. Farmers are battered yearly by the effects of It is no secret that Dibba has been seeking ways to world market prices and desertification as their children come in from the cold, but PPP bosses have given short abandon the homesteads for the burgeoning urban shrift to NCP proposals for an alliance or coalition. With sprawls of Brikama, Serekunda, and Bakau. And account- five seats to the PPFs 31 in the House, the NCP may be ability in the civil service, while on the increase, remains the official opposition, but with a record of failure and no lacking. Nevertheless the general perception is, to quote alternative agenda, its appeal at the polls remains limited octogenarian Lloyd King, "We have survived." at best. This notwithstanding, Dibba polled 27 percent to In his New Year's message, Jawara sent out signals Jawara's 59 in the 1987 presidential election. about the society he wanted to leave beyond his steward- If the NCP's chances have been hampered by Jawara's ship. Calling on Gambians to inoculate themselves 360-degree about-turn, they have also been affected by the against divisiveness by developing a sense of national emergence last September of the People's Democratic consciousness, he said: "There is no alternative to toler- Party (PDP). Led by medical practitioner Dr. Lamin ance and the democratic way of life... [unity] is crucial to Bojang, the PDP is bankrolled by a former NCP financier our future as a viable nation...our sense of unity should and is made up of NCP defectors. Considered a allow us to form a community that is free of discrimina- lightweight with little chance of ever winning a parliamen- tion between people and that strives for reciprocal solidar- tary seat, Bojang has nevertheless led the campaign for a ity." Every individual, he added, must respect the value of "freer and fairer" election. diversity and direct it to the common good. Reading In a joint election petition (drawn up with the Gambia between the lines, experts of "Jawaraspeak" say he was People's Party of another ex-vice president, Hassan Musa telling whoever succeeds him that tribalism, sectional- Camara), Bojang demanded that the opposition be granted ism, and intolerance of minorities are out and consensus- equal access to the state media, that government vehicles based politics of inclusion is in. Failing that, nothing short be used strictly for state and not PPP business, and that of disaster might occur. international observers be drafted to monitor the May Diplomats hinted as much in their New Year's mes- 1992 poll. Promising to ensure the first two points, Jawara sages. British High Commissioner Alan Pover said it has rejected the idea of foreign observers, saying this would be a shame for Jawara to bow out now, while other would tarnish the Gambia's painstakingly built reputation representatives of donors said privately that a Jawara clone for a transparent electoral process. was imperative for the country to get its present share of Elections office sources, however, told Africa Report assistance. Others mused that perhaps what the country that the idea of an indigenously staffed electoral commis- needed now was not a father-figure, but a disciplinarian. sion has been on the cards since last year. If put in place, Between now and the May election, new twists are like- this may tighten up procedure. Little has been said, howev- ly to unfold. That the Gambia is on the eve of change, how- er, about redrawing the electoral boundaries—a campaign- ever, is beyond dispute. Sampling opinion on how long it ing point of the extraparliamentary People's Democratic would take the country to achieve economic independence Organization of Independence and Socialism. Pundits and development, Berkeley Rice quoted a British technical expect little from the opposition but say the de facto one- adviser as saying things would sort themselves out in a party state of affairs that has marked the Gambia's 27 hundred years or so. And Rice's view: "It should not take years of independence could change with Jawara's depar- that long, but it will certainly take more than one genera- ture—provided the growing educated class comes down tion. If this seems like a long time to wait, Gambians might from its anti-politics high horse. recall one of their own Wollof proverbs: Vanka danka, For his part, Jawara is bracing himself for the critical japagolo' (soflee, soflee, catchee monkey)." examination of his legacy that will inevitably follow his Rice could not have been more accurate in his reading abdication. Skillful foreign policy has resulted in huge of the Gambian psyche, for that fatalistic "wait-and-see" inflows of aid (at over S90 per capita, estimated as one of attitude still characterizes the country today. O

Africa Report UNITY AT LAST? Decades of bitter enmity and sometimes horrific violence between Burundi's two major ethnic groups—Hutu outnumber Tutsi six to one—is the focus of President Pierre Buyoya's "national unity" reforms. Once entirely Tutsi- dominated, the government now has a Hutu majority, the educational system has been rid of its pro-Tutsi bias, and a program of multi-party reform has been launched in which all ethnic groups must be represented. IIIHMUH'Jlll BY ALLISON BOYER Alain Nogues/Sygma ational unity is an obsession in electorate, no amendments were made to the text. The Burundi. No longer will one refer to opposition charges that definition of the term "national the 84 percent Hutu and 14 percent unity" should have been open to national debate. Tutsi, or the 1 percent Twa, Burun- The country's fourth constitution, which will go di's three ethnic groups, but rather before a referendum in March, is step two in the project to "the people of Burundi." Monu- to create a climate of confidence between Hutu and Tutsi. ments to unity have been erected A commission created in March 1991 composed of 35 throughout the country. One afternoon a members including lawyers, church, military, and one week, the government takes time off to engage in member of an opposition political group, produced a 145- "national unity sports." Legislation being drafted to per- page report, "The Democratization of Institutions and mit political pluralism is being pursued in the name of Political Life in Burundi," which was the object of debate national reconciliation. in the 120 communes of the country. In mid-January, the During the first two years of his rule, President Pierre draft constitution was presented to the president. From Buyoya released hundreds of Hutu political prisoners, January 24 until February 15, the public had a chance to jailed several corrupt Tutsi government ministers, ended peruse the text before the vote. the repression of the Roman Catholic church (seen by Awaiting the referendum on the constitution, however, the previous government as a vehicle for a Hutu revolu- the 1966 Ixiw 001/034 institutionalizing single-party rule tion), and brought an end to a discriminatory education remains in place. The various opposition parties cry foul, policy favoring the Tutsi. Upro- demanding that political activity na, the single ruling party during be legalized in order to allow the past 30 years, has survived dialogue. But as Hutu secretary- three coups and in varying forms general of Uprona Nicolas of mutation has served three Mayugi explains, "We have rea- successive heads of state. Entire- sons for controlling the democ- ly Tutsi-dominated until 1988, ratization process. If we were to Uprona could today be consid- lift this law, we would be operat- ered a party of national unity—a ing in a void, without rules for model example of peaceful political parties to follow. It cohabitation in the halls of would be anarchy." power. However, Melchior Ndadye, Today the government is president of the moderate Hutu- headed by a Hutu prime minis- dominated Frodebu, the sole ter, Adrien Sibomana, and Hutu member of the opposition to sit represent the majority in the cab- on the commission, resigned in inet. The reforms initiated by August on the grounds that the Buyoya are unprecedented, commission was not sufficiently determined, and widely wel- broad-based and that the text comed by Western aid donors. contained glaring omissions and However, a Hutu prime minis- articles which make a mockery ter or even a majority Hutu cabi- of the principles of democracy. net has not convinced everyone Uprona's secretary-general that peace among Hutu and Ndong(VI Mayugi defends a constitution Tutsi can be lasting or is even desirable. Extremist Hutu, tailored to bring an end to the tragic consequences of grouped in the movement, Palipehutu (Parti pour la ethnic politics in Burundi. "It is important that the consti- Liberation du Peuple Hutu), continue to attempt to sabo- tution ban what we saw as wrong yesterday." tage the reconciliation process, capitalizing on the resid- Article 56 of the constitution states that no party creat- ual fear and mutual suspicion summed up by the Kirundi ed on the basis of ethnic affiliation will be legalized. word, "Ikiza," or "catastrophe." While the constitution requires that all ethnic groups be The Buyoya government has worked hard to lay the represented in a given party, the president of the Consti- groundwork for multi-party non-ethnic politics to take tution Commission, Gerard Nyungero, insists that "there hold in Burundi. On February 5, 1991, the Charter of will not be a quota imposed on the number of Tutsi or National Unity was adopted, a document—or rather Hutu belonging to these parties. The essential is that pocket-sized pamphlet—inviolable above all laws, includ- these parties reflect national unity." ing the constitution. Frodebu's Melchior Ndadye sees things otherwise. "A The charter was drafted under the auspices of dangerous contradiction exists," he says, "between the Uprona. Although it was adopted by 89.21 percent of the banning of parties based on tribal affiliation and the stip- ulation that each party which will be authorized must Allison Hoyer is a freelance journalist based in Paris specializing in African Politics. have among its founders and members representatives

Africa Report from each of Burundi's ethnic gle franc. From n<Michel Micombero, Col. Jean- The president of the Constitution Commission remains Bapliste Bagaza, and Maj-Gen. Pierre Buyoya. resolute. "Burundi is a small country," Nyungero avows, Created in September 1991, the Royalist Parliamen- "everyone knows each other. If a party is composed tary Party (PRP) exists, according to its founders, in exclusively of one ethnic group, we'll know it." Hutu sec- large part because it is implicitly banned by the republi- retary-general of Uprona Nicolas Mayugi proposes that can constitution. According to the PRP's Bujumbura lead- each party draft its own "mini-constitution" which would er, Jean Bosco Yamuremye, "the Burundi people never stipulate that "all Burundi citizens without distinction for decided in favor of the end of the monarchy." ethnic affiliation may be members of a given party." The party advocates a parliamentary monarchy, with a The ban on ethnic parties poses logistical problems prime minister and a Hutu-Tutsi mixed council of nota- for nascent groups awaiting the green light to begin their bles. Isn't a monarchist party anachronistic in Burundi in fundraising and campaigning. Article 56 of the constitu- 1992, one might ask? Not at all, according to Yamuremye: tion prohibits parties from receiving external financing. "The king, who will act as an arbitrator, remains above Unable to accept external sources of support, there ethnic categorization—a constitutional monarchy is the remains a risk that such parties may be forced, clandes- only way to insure national unity in Burundi." tinely, to turn to ethnic support to insure their survival. Perhaps the most delicate issue facing President Buy- For its part, the ruling Uprona will, with the adoption oya concerns the future of the armed forces. Neither the of the constitution, disconnect from the state. Official Charter of National Unity nor the constitution make ref- cars and other material benefits will be returned. Mayugi erence to its composition. Maj. Lazare Gakoryo, com- explains, "In 1991, the state budget granted Uprona 272 mander of the commando force and member of the Con- million Burundi francs ($1.4 million). In 1992, not a sin- stitution Commission, maintains that it will be left to

39 March/April 19 9 2 future governments to amend the constitution to bring Kagimbi, a Hutu secretary of state, admits that there the army "into the framework of national unity." "The were cases of misconduct among the security forces. He army cannot be left indifferent to the democratization speaks of sanctions taken, but is unwilling to say how process," the major insists. many or what kind. Undeniable fact: The army remains strongly Tutsi, Over 150 people were arrested in connection with the and the limits of democratization may depend to an violence. Many were released, while others await trial. extent on the willingness of "ultra-Tutsis" within the mili- There has been no official investigation into the inci- tary to accept reform. The Tutsi-dominated military has dents, but the Human Rights League, in concert with played a major role in the country's political life. The the government, has followed the legal proceedings three heads of state since independence—Micombero, closely. Bagaza, and Buyoya—are Bahima (a Tutsi sub-caste). In mid-December, 228 Rwandans were questioned by Bahima officers have controlled the army since 1972. the police. The majority, without identification papers, Buyoya owes his own place at the top to junior officers took refuge in the Rwandan embassy in Bujumbura, from his province of Bururi, precisely from his own hills demanding to be repatriated. After further questioning, ofVianda. 100 or so were expelled from the country. Those who The Burundi military currently numbers between remained in custody, according to the Burundi authori- 15,000 and 20,000, large it would seem for a country of its ties, were "infiltrators" who had been involved in the size. While Maj. Gakoryo refuses to give any statistics on November Palipehutu offensive. the ethnic configuration of the army, he insists that the The Burundi government openly accuses its Rwandan military has changed. counterpart of tolerating the presence of armed insur- Melchior Ndadye, leader of Frodebu, proposes the gents of Palipehutu. According to Luc Rukingana, presi- dissolution of the armed forces and the creation of a dent of the Burundi National Commission on the Return national army and gendarmerie based on equal recruit- and Reintegration of Refugees, refugee camps inside ment from each of the country's "collines," thus avoiding Rwanda serve as recruitment and training centers for the the re-creation of a regionalist monoethnic force. Not rebel movement. practical, according to the major: "With such a system if Voluntary repatriation of refugees is key to the policy the gendarmes or soldiers are sent to maintain order in of national reconciliation embarked upon by the Buyoya their fiefs, it's more than likely that they could refuse to government. In a tripartite accord signed by Burundi, follow orders. On the other hand, if we announce a pro- Tanzania, and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees gram of recruitment throughout all the districts of the in August 1991 in Dar es Salaam, the signatories insisted country, selection by competition will determine the can- upon an amnesty to ensure that repatriation is effected in didates chosen." a voluntary manner. Reform within the military, however, cannot erase At present, the majority of Burundian refugees are overnight the mark left by periodic brutal Tutsi repres- concentrated in Tanzania. Most of them, numbering sion of Hutu civilians. Dr. Sylvestre Brancira, a 37-year- 200,000, are Hutu who left their country following the old psychiatrist trained in France, remarks that among bloody clashes in 1972. Estimates by the UNHCR indicat- his clients a good number have an obsessive fear of uni- ed that 50 percent of the 200,000 refugees living in Tanza- forms. For many Hutu, the sight of a uniform is synony- nia wish to return. Based on figures provided by the dio- mous with tension. The doctor explains: "Very often cese of Burundi, between January and December 1991, a inter-ethnic tensions are stirred up by the fact that when total of 18,500 Burundians had been voluntarily repatriat- a Hutu sees a soldier, his reaction is that he must defend ed from camps and settlements in Tanzania, Zaire, and himself or be killed by this soldier, who he automatically Rwanda. identifies as a Tutsi." According to the doctor, But the continued violent activities of the Palipehutu Palipehutu, the extremist Hutu movement, plays heavily have disrupted efforts by the Burundi government and on this phenomenon. UNHCR to instill a climate of confidence. According to The violence which broke out on November 23, 1991, Rukingana, Palipehutu leads a disinformation campaign between Palipehutu and the security forces in the capital, in the camps claiming that all people who accept repatria- Bujumbura, and in the northwestern province of tion are executed upon their return to Burundi. The Cibotoke bordering Rwanda, provided a chilling Burundi government for its part will sponsor visits this reminder of the limits of the capital's lofty declarations. year to the interior of the country by Burundian According to the authorities, the conflict involved the refugees, who will then return to their camps to describe security forces and a modest number of armed "tribal ter- the situation accurately. rorists"—members of Palipehutu. Although ethnic ten- The vast majority of the Burundian people appear to sion and violence did not spiral out of control as it has in agree with Buyoya that it is time to embrace national the past (1965, 1969, 1972, 1988), the official death toll unity and turn the page on yesterday's scores. Once the rose to 551. Gervais Habyarimana, vice president of the democratic institutions are in place, Palipehutu may find Burundi League of Human Rights, estimates that the itself with no ammunition left to stir up the demons of number of dead exceeds the official figure by far. Laurent ethnic hatred. O

Africa Report 40 BIMSIllillBYMARKHUBAND

PRESSURE FROM ABROAD Foreign pressure on Zaire is fueling the effort to forge a democratic restructuring, underpinned by the economic and political clout of the three major donors, France, Bel- gium, and the United States. But while Paris and Brussels are clear about the solution—the removal of President Mobutu Sese Seko—the U.S. appears undecided on whether to continue propping up its long-time ally. In the meantime, the worsening crisis " ~~ has heightened the possibility of more violence.

Herman Cohen, assis- tant secretary of state 5 n for African affairs: < 3 5 3 Must President Mobutu, g, ^ m left, give up power or s stay on as head of state? aire's long stumble from crisis to crisis has humanitarian aid to be resumed. This request was made rapidly become a battle between what Presi- specifically to Belgium, which scrapped its aid program dent Mobutu Sese Seko defensively describes following the military's massacre of students at Lubum- as the corrupters and the corrupted. But fuel- bashi University in May 1990. inZg the potential for conflict in the country is the increas- Belgium has said that it will only listen to requests for ing lack of clarity over who fits into these two categories. aid from the national conference itself. Karl-I-Bond, in Determined to extoll the virtues of what has quickly what clearly ranks as a sign of how desperate his three- come ttt be regarded as Africa's democratic path, foreign month old government is to find arguments in its own powers with influence on the continent have been keen favor, said the resumption of humanitarian aid would be a to advocate the imposition of their blueprint for demo- mark of Belgium's respect for human rights and that Bel- cratic change. This has hinged on the holding of national gium's insistence on the primacy of the national confer- conferences, at which the old regimes go on trial, interim ence was an interference in Zaire's domestic affairs. administrations are appointed, and the supposedly demo- Belgium's position is complicated by its own domestic cratic heart of African politics is allowed to blossom after political crisis following deadlock at a general election on years of apparent repression. November 24, when French and Flemish-speaking mem- Foreign pressure on Zaire is fast becoming the main bers of the coalition led by Wilfred Martens fell out over driving force in the country's political equation. It is the issue of arms exports. Splits have traditionally exist- important to understand why that pressure exists, to ed over the Zairian issue along the same linguistic lines. decide whether it is consistent and disinterested, and to Flemish speakers, many of whom formed the vanguard establish whether or not it is being applied appropriately. of Belgium's colonial rule in Zaire, tend to be more pro- The United States has now cut off all assistance, Mobutu than the French speakers. The delicate coalition including emergency aid, to Zaire, while the European within the bilingual context of the country means that Community has suspended development assistance. policy on Zaire has a very deep significance for internal These decisions were taken in response to a decision by Belgian politics and can fuel serious Mobutu and Prime Minister Nguza Karl-I-Bond to sus- divisions within the political estab- Kinshasa: pend the national conference. On February 5, following lishment. The economic visits to several former donor nations who refused to France, like Belgium, has been crisis has beigbt- resume their aid to Zaire, Karl-I-Bond appealed for arguing ever since the army-led Kin- ened the potentiai shasa riots of September 1991 that MarkHubandis West Africa correspondent of The Guardian (London). Mobutu must simply step down anford more violence

Africa Report preferably leave the country. This point of view has led to brother-in-law Holden Roberto's FNLA forces in Angola Mobutu accusing France of plotting to overthrow him, an in the mid-1970s enriched the Zairian president by $1 mil- accusation denied by the French. In November, Zaire ille- lion worth of embezzlement. Now, Savimbi himself has gally tapped diplomatic communications between the said that the departure of Mobutu would destabilize cen- French embassy in Kinshasa and the foreign ministry in tral Africa, and particularly Angola in the run-up to elec- Paris, in which the French ambassador Henri Rethore tions. was allegedly heard plotting to destabilize the Mobutu Against the background of a current 23,000 percent regime. annualized inflation rate, massive unemployment, and But despite historical links with Zaire, French and Bel- the continued absence of many expatriates who formed gian influence is minor compared with that of the United an important part of the business community, Western States. While France and Belgium are linked through pressure for the resumption of the national confer- Africa's francophone community and, in Belgium's case, ence—which has been in almost uninterrupted suspen- as a former colony which it pillaged and abused until sion since it was opened in August 1991—has started to independence in 1960, the U.S. connection is more resemble advocacy of an article of faith whose magic specifically with Mobutu himself. powers are rapidly diminishing. In an interview onboard his river boat, the Kamanyola, The U.S., Belgium, and France were all extremely last year, Mobutu was forthright in his claim that the U.S. angry that Karl-I-Bond suspended the conference, saying would not try to replace him. In this he appears to have that it was behaving unconstitutionally and that it was been right. Since September 1991, the U.S. has dithered sowing division within the country. The prime minister in its demands of the ally it promoted ^^^^^^^^_ ^^^^^^^^_ had assured all three countries that and supported in order to facilitate its he would resume the conference, and wars and subversion in Africa. Initially, BOTH FRANCEAND publicly at least, he appeared to be both France and Belgium found it diffi- carrying out a dramatic U-turn. But BELGIUM FOUND IT cult to know where the U.S. stood, since the latest suspension of discus- while they were making their demand DIFFICULT TO KNOW sions, the arguments put forward by for Mobutu's departure. foreign governments as reasons for Now the U.S. position is even more WHERE THE U.S. STOOD, its resumption appear increasingly thin. murky. The assistant secretary of state WHILE THEY WERE for African affairs, Herman Cohen, has At the same congressional sub- consistently been outspoken in his criti- MAKING THEIR committee hearing, Cohen said: cism of Mobutu, citing human rights "What we want to do now is get the violations, corruption, and all the abus- DEMAND FOR MOBUTU'S national conference back on track es of power which the U.S. refused to with the development of a transition DEPARTURE. acknowledge when Mobutu was play- government that will not be threaten- ing a role in American foreign policy, ing to either side." He continued: "We particularly in Angola. However, these criticisms have feel that the only way to break the impasse is to have a been tempered by the U.S.'s apparent acceptance of transition government led by someone acceptable to Mobutu staying on as head of slate. everybody who would be essentially neutral and would Testifying to the Senate subcommittee on Africa, have no ability to run for president after the transition Cohen said on February 5 that Mobutu must "effectively and this is what we hope to persuade everyone to give up power to someone else, preferably from the oppo- accept," adding that Zaire cannot end the economic crisis sition, so that a transition to a free and fair election can without support from donor nations, the main ones being take place." But, confusingly, he went on to say: "We're the U.S., France, and Belgium. not asking him to leave. We feel he should remain as But impartiality of the kind envisaged as a way of president so he can control the military force until there allowing a neutral atmosphere to prevail at the confer- is an election at which point the people will decide. If ence no longer exists within the Zairian political arena. Mobutu, with his control of the security apparatus, The appointment of the Bishop of Kisangani, Monseng- including people who engage in covert operations...does wo Pasinya, as chairman of the conference during a brief not support a transition process, then it cannot succeed." resumption in January led to accusations from the pro- The cutting of aid, as well as the loss of prestige Mobutu grouping thai he was biased in favor of the oppo- afforded Mobutu by U.S. criticism, are two aspects of the sition. When the opposition demanded the sacking of the foreign pressure on him. A third aspect comes from with- government officials responsible for accreditation to the in the central African region. Mobutu's role in the conference and demanded the dismissal of the governor Angolan issue has continued. The U.S. air base at Kami- of Shaba province after he had been accused of prevent- na, from which the CIA channelled weapons to Jonas Sav- ing delegates from travelling to Kinshasa, Karl-I-Bond imbi's Union for the Total Independence of Angola announced the conference was over. (Unita) rebels during the 16-year civil war, is still func- The chaos surrounding the conference, in the way it tioning. Mobutu's role as the conduit for CIA funds to his reflects the crisis in the country, was clearly bound to

M a r c b / A p r I I 19 9 grow once it became clear that nobody was able to take But one theory suggests that there are moves by the all- on the role of arbiter. U.S. claims that Mobutu should stay important foreign powers to scrap the idea of the national on to keep the army under control suggest that Washing- conference altogether, discredit the already divided oppo- ton still has faith in its former ally, and does not believe as sition, increase the credibility of Karl-I-Bond by resuming many do that Mobutu would actually be prepared to see foreign aid, and thereby create in Karl-I-Bond a dauphin the army unleashed as a way of proving his own value. for Mobutu to cede power to. Now the Catholic church has been accused of bias A February 6 World Bank decision to release $30 mil- within the context of the conference, and is unlikely to lion to the Zairian government to support social services overcome the prejudice against it. The church hierarchy, is the first hole in the armor the West has exposed, and it which claims the president among its congregation, has is highly likely that a more conciliatory tone will be adopt- itself been guilty of silencing anti-Mobutu elements within ed in the U.S. The West, and particularly the U.S., will Us numbers, undermining its partiality in the eyes of both realize that, instead of forcing the government to adopt sides. measures approved of by donors, strangling Zaire will Within the political arena itself, there is no such thing actually leave the country dead. as "someone acceptable to everybody." The proof of this Suggestions that some opposition leaders may have lies in the events of the past year, which have seen five been involved in the attempted coup by soldiers demand- prime ministers appointed and replaced or sacked by ing the overthrow of Mobutu during an occupation of the Mobutu. The political establishment in its entirety lacks national broadcasting station on January 23 have already cohesion due to the enormous pressures on all politi- undermined the opposition's reputation. Chief among cians, and the legacy of 27 years of Mobutu's rule. With those leveling the accusation of opposition complicity is all leading members of the opposition having suffered at Karl-I-Bond himself, who now has no choice but to estab- the hands of the dictator at some point—having been iso- lish an identity and power base which totally excludes his lated, imprisoned, tortured or humiliated—the grounds former coalition allies. This, however, undermines the for cohesion even within the opposition are almost non- entire raison d'etre of a period of unifying transition over- existent. The older opposition leaders, who created the seen by somebody who is not Mobutu, as it leaves the post-independence political elite, have swung from being transition in the hands of somebody who personally in opposition to Mobutu to being in his government. The despises Mobutu and is not trusted by the Sacred Union. chameleon nature of many of these elder statesmen lies at Few if any of the political maneuvers which have creat- the heart of their mutual distrust of each other, and has ed the storm within government have had any convincing contributed to the fragility of the opposition Sacred Union reference to the continued plight of Zaire's 33 million peo- coalition. ple. Runaway inflation, unemployment, and bank liquidity This fragility burst into the open when Karl-I-Bond problems which led to banks in Kinshasa closing on accepted the prime ministership last November. Karl-I- February 5 on the pretext of a sparsely supported nation- Bond, whose autobiography, Mobutu, Or the Incarnation al strike, have pushed the potentially rich country into an of Sickness, gives an account of his ill-treatment at Mobu- abyss of poverty worse than that which most people have tu's hands, has variously held the posts of leading oppo- been forced to endure under Mobutu's catastrophic rule. nent to the regime, foreign minister, ambassador to Wash- The economic crisis has heightened the potential for ington, and prime minister. Despite his position as a more violent action in demands for an end to the political founding member of the Sacred Union, Karl-I-Bond's stalemate. The January coup attempt by soldiers from the motives were always questioned by other members of the 31st Regiment (the same regiment which led the rioting coalition. This contributed to serious divisions and dis- and looting in September 1991) marked a desperate trust between himself and the Sacred Union leader, Eti- attempt at forcing change. It was bound to fail, and result- enne Tshisekedi. ed in many more deaths than were acknowledged when Karl-I-Bond's acceptance of the prime ministership, elite Special Presidential Division troops were sent in to after months of saying that he would only accept the pres- crush the rebellion. Karl-I-Bond instructed that the recap- idency, was a positive step only if the process of discus- ture of the broadcasting station be carried out with mini- sion and the reconvening of the national conference were mum casualties, but his instructions appear to have been to be his main intentions. His role had to be one of bring- ignored by DSP troops, according to later reports. ing the different sides together in a way which his prede- Dissidents outside Zaire have long been planning the cessor, Bernardin Mungul Diaka, and the latter's prede- overthrow of the Mobutu regime, and the current crisis cessor, Mulumba Lukoji, had never stood a chance of within the country is providing an ever more fertile bat- achieving. But having scrapped the national conference, tlefield. However, it is not clear along what political lines and suggesting the convening of round-table discussions military action would really be fought. But as the poten- between the political groupings (a suggestion quickly tial for a political settlement fades, with the exhaustion of rejected by the Sacred Union), Karl-I-Bond's ability to most of the available combinations of parties, politicians, break the impasse looks as weak as all those who have and foreign-imposed initiatives, there will soon be taken on the poisoned chalice of the prime ministership. nobody left to contain growing popular misery and mili- Karl-I-Bond's own motivation is still largely unclear. tary discontent. O

Africa Re p <> r t 44 Cyril Rumapbosa, secretary-general of the COMING TO A African National Congress As the government £ ^j of President F.Wde ^^ PROMISE Klerk and the African National Congress hammer out a blueprint for a future democratic South Africa, it is clear that both sides broadly agree on the need for a provisional government, While they differ on how it should be constituted and how to arrive at a new constitution, there is, however, room for compromise.

45 March/April 19 9 2 resident F.W. de Klerk and Nelson on a one-person, one-vote basts, should be mandated to Mandela of the African National draft a new constitution. As de Klerk has remarked of his Congress agree: The present adminis- own proposals: "[They] could produce an entirely new tration from which South Africa's dimension in the debate over a constituent assembly." black majority is excluded must be One way or another, the de Klerk administration is replaced by a provisional government determined to avoid the transfer of unfettered constitu- by 1993. tion-making powers to a popularly elected constituent But while they concur on the need for a more broadly assembly, mainly, one suspects, because it fears that the based provisional government, they cannot even agree ANC will dominate the assembly. on a name for it. De Klerk's governing National Party De Klerk, who has yet to spell out his proposals in (NP) refers to a transitional government, while Man- detail, insists that they should be first be approved in a dela's ANC prefers to talk of an interim government of referendum and then submitted to the present Parlia- national unity. ment for adoption and legal enactment Margaret Hemlein Their terminological The problem, however, differences reflect deep- is that he is committed by er divergences on the his own pledges to white nature, purpose, and voters to seek the approval duration of the envisaged of the white electorate sepa- provisional government. rately. Thus, he proposes Standing back, it is possi- that white votes should be ble to delineate the key counted separately to estab- elements of their respec- lish whether they endorse tive views of the immedi- his plan. ate future. The ANC differs with de As de Klerk made Klerk on several key points clear in a major speech to of his plan, not least his the Convention for a determination—as the ANC Democratic South Africa sees it—to hold "racial ref- (Codesa) on December erenda" and give white vot- 20, and again in his open- ers a veto over progress to a ing address to Parlia- new non-racial order. ment on January 24, the The ANC proposals, as ruling NP wants to spelled out in its message amend the present con- commemorating its 80th stitution to provide for a anniversary on January 8, transitional constitution are a model of simplicity: and, through it, a transi- The present government tional Parliament and should be replaced by an government. interim government of The proposed transi- national unity by the end of tional constitution will July and elections for a con- provide for "equitable stituent assembly should be representation" of blacks held before the end of the in the legislative and year. executive arms of gov- The ANC demands that ernment, meaning that the present Parliament and blacks will be free to elect black representatives to Parlia- constitution should be abolished as a prelude to setting ment for the first time since the Act of Union in 1910. up an interim government as the "supreme and But de Klerk's NP goes further than that It wants the sovereign governing authority" until the adoption of a transitional government, and the new, more representa- new constitution by the constituent assembly. tive Parliament, to serve as forums for debate on a "final" The ANC's reaction so far to de Klerk's proposals is constitution for a non-racial South Africa. two-dimensional: At one level it is skeptical, fearing that In large measure, the NP's new plan—representing a de Klerk is devising a strategem to gain a tactical advan- major shift from de Klerk's original proposals—preempts tage in the negotiations; at another, it believes that de the ANC's demand that a constituent assembly, elected Klerk, under pressure by the inexorable logic of the situ- ation, is gradually shifting to fulfillment of ANC demands. Patrick Ixiurence is a specialist writer on the Johannesburg Star, South African correspondent of The Economist, and a contributor to The There may be an element of truth in both views: De Guardian ofLmdoti and Tin* Irish Times. Klerk, driven by forces out of his control, may be edging

Africa Report 46 closer to the ANC's central demands, while at the same Ramaphosa sums up: "We have always said that the time twisting desperately to regain the initiative. constitution must be drafted by elected people. De Klerk In its skeptical mode, the ANC perceives a possible now agrees that the constitution should be drafted by maneuver by de Klerk to restructure the present tricam- elected people. We have always said that there must be eral Parliament for whites, Coloureds, and Indians by an interim government. He now agrees that we should adding a fourth chamber for blacks. Denouncing in have an interim government." advance any attempt to move in that direction, the ANC Gerrit Viljoen, de Klerk's minister of constitutional says: "Legitimizing the tricameral Parliament through co- affairs, offers a different interpretation. He does not dis- option is totally unacceptable...An interim government pute that there has been a change in the NP's approach, which finds its form in a glorified tricamera] Parliament but he projects it as an "important initiative" and an alterna- with an indefinite time span is equally unacceptable." tive to—rather than a duplication of—the ANC's approach. As the ANC puts it in its 80th birthday statement, the Stressing that the formation of a transitional govern- "illegitimate and illegal [de Klerk] regime" has been ment is a vital pre-condition for the establishment of sta- forced to retreat to "new , bility and investor confi- lines of defense" and, in so dence, Viljoen says: "The doing, it is deliberately way to success is going to complicating and delaying be urgency and speed." what should be a "simple Noting that the NP and manageable transi- talks of a transitional gov- tion." ernment while the ANC The ANC secretary-gen- refers to an interim gov- eral, Cyril Ramaphosa, ernment, Viljoen argues offers a different—but not that the two terms are not necessarily contradicto- merely different phrases ry—perspective on gov- for the same concept. ernment thinking. He sees "The word interim gov- a "fundamental shift" in the ernment is the buzzword NP's approach and inter- that is being used by the prets it as evidence that the ANC and its supporters NP is moving closer to the for a system where the ANC's position. present constitution is Ramaphosa observes suspended, the govern- that until late last year, ment is an undefined enti- President de Klerk talked ty, to which there is a total about making "transitional transfer to power, and arrangements" to accom- Parliament is no longer modate the black majority functional... until the drafting of a new "You have an uncon- constitution. But now, he trolled executive, the gov- adds, de Klerk is talking ernmental system is no about a democratically longer in terms of a con- elected "transitional gov- stitution because the con- ernment" stitution is suspended. "He is talking about an There is a constitutional interim government which and political vacuum and will be elected and which Palnck Durand/Sygma that, of course, is entirely will derive its legitimacy and authority from an elected unacceptable. legislature." "The moment you use the word interim government, Ramaphosa reckons that de Klerk has effectively con- it inevitably brings with it all the implications of the ANC ceded another key ANC demand: that the task of drafting definition. That is why we prefer the term transitional a new constitution should be assigned to a democratical- government." ly elected constituent assembly. Viljoen, a former university professor with a taste for Until recently, Ramaphosa says, de Klerk's position intellectual argument, does not shy away from trying to was that the new constitution should be drafted by a define the NP's alternative notion of transitional govern- multi-party conference. The multi-party conference ment. became a reality last year in the form of Codesa, but the "Firstly, the government accepts that it will imply a government now wants the final constitution to be draft- meaningful change bringing about a change in [rather ed by a provisional but popularly elected Parliament. than a suspension or abolition of] the constitution.

47 March/April 19 9 Secondly, the shift would involve not only the execu- wing Conservative Party in a white-only election under tive, the government, but also the legislature, namely the present constitution. Parliament. Several compromises have been talked about: The 'Thirdly, the existing constitution would apply the ANC may accept a modified form of the NP's transitional method of introducing such a transitional government government, one in which its duration will be limited to, with a transitional constitution; that means it will have to say, 18 months and in which there will be no place for a be brought about by a decision made by [the present] regionally based upper house weighted in favor of small- Parliament. er parties. The NP may accept a constituent assembly, 'These aspects are new and, in a sense, have put the provided that it drafts a final constitution within parame- whole question of arrangements between the present sit- ters agreed on at Codesa and provided that no one party uation and an eventual new constitution in a somewhat will be able to foist its constitution on the nation unless it different light. wins two-thirds of the seats at Codesa. "[Our] proposal that there should be urgent negotia- The ANC and the NP are already talking to one anoth- tions at Codesa aiming at an agreement on a first phase er in a bid to agree on a route forward. Ramaphosa in constitutional change through a transitional govern- remains confident that a compromise will emerge in ment is, we believe, a very important initiative. which the NP will have been forced to make most of the "We believe that government is providing an alterna- concessions. tive...to the concepts of constituent assembly and an "You cannot have a transitional government that oper- interim government, as defined by the ANC. ates in the way that de Klerk wants it to operate," he says. "We believe that a transitional gov- "Of course, de Klerk has to say he ernment involving the fundamental wants to base [the transitional govern- changes to which I have referred THE ANC AND THE ment] on his constitutional proposals. would be an acceptable [forum] to But those proposals have not found argue and negotiate a better alterna- NATIONAL PARTY ARE acceptance from a broad spectrum of tive to a constituent assembly... political parties. ALREADY TALKING TO "While a constituent assembly as 'The key issue is the fundamental generally defined is supposed to be ONE ANOTHER IN A BID shift that the [ruling National Party] elected on a one-man, one-vote majori- has effected. The fundamental shift in tarian basis—where the majority, TO AGREE ON A ROUTE their thinking now is that the constitu- once elected, will simply finalize the tion must be drafted by people who FORWARD. RAMAPHOSA constitution—the approach of the gov- have been elected. ernment is to ensure proper represen- REMAINS CONFIDENT "How we are going to make that tation of minorities in the decision- possible is an issue that will have to be making...especially in regard to THAT A COMPROMISE negotiated at Codesa." further constitutional change." WILL EMERGE. Ramaphosa is confident that the To achieve that end, Viljoen and de ANC's view that the process must be Klerk have stated, the principles kept as simple as possible will prevail underlying the NP's draft constitution- at Codesa and that Codesa will reject al plan should be considered at Codesa as a basis for the the NP's complicated proposals. Underlying his thinking transitional government. is a calculation that the balance of power at Codesa lies Published in September last year, the NP plan con- with ANC-aligned forces rather than with the de Klerk tains an elaborate system of checks and balances, includ- administration and its allies. ing a collective presidency and a regionally based upper The two sides, however, remain fundamentally parliamentary chamber where representation will be opposed on the question of a referendum as a pre-condi- weighted in favor of smaller parties. tion to the next step. De Klerk and Viljoen are adamant Mandela has castigated it as a "recipe for chaos" and a that the NP must fulfil its promise to the white electorate scheme to guarantee that the "accumulated privileges of and seek its approval for the proposed provisional gov- white minority rule remain inviolate." ernment Mandela and Ramaphosa are equally adamant The question that observers are asking is whether a against the proposal to hold "racial referenda" as it effec- compromise can be devised which reconciles the ANC tively gives the white minority a veto. and NP plans. The answer is almost certainly positive. "If anyone should have a veto, it should be the people Both parties are anxious to forge ahead to a provision- of South Africa, black and white," Ramaphosa says. al government: The ANC, which realizes that time is run- The ANC's opposition to a white veto is based on ning out for Mandela, now age 73, wants to finally end realpolitik as well as principle: It does not share de apartheid as soon as possible through the enfranchise- Klerk's confidence that he will win a referendum in the ment of the black majority; the NP wants to establish a white community and fears that by taking that route, the new constitution before September 1994, the date at NP is going into an impasse from which there is no easy which it will have to face the increasingly rampant right- escape. O

Africa Report 48 •IIIMW: wurcmi BY ANNE SHEPHERD

The ANC wants sanctions to remain in place for noiv, but does not want to scare away potential futu re investors Catherine AHport IRONINC OUT INEQUITIES

s political re- 7ra(je an(j banking sanctions have taken a heavy toll on forms gather ^ ; steam in south Africa, the daunting the South African economy—perhaps $40 billion lost in economic challenges facing this deeply divided nation arguaranteee comindg thapartheie last fivd esystem years—a, ans estimate has the dcos $8t billioof administerinn annually.g Bu thte w a future non-racial government, which must restructure

inaugurated in December, has raised (he economy to eliminate its built-in inequities, will at hopes that transitional arrangements J " finallleadiny gb eto o ndemocrati their way ci nelection Pretorias. may the same time have to instill confidence in the business Yet, as Dr. Ronnie Bethlehem, and foreign investor communities. group economic consultant to the Johannesburg Consolidated Invest- ment Company, points out: "Developments in the economy Despite the lifting of most sanctions, the continued exis- are key to the success of the negotiations. All that has hap- tence of others and reticence by business to invest in the pened so far will be meaningless unless there is delivery." present uncertain climate leave little hope of a sustained The problems arc both immediate and long-term. recovery from the current recession. Further down the

49 March /April 1992 road, the African National Congress, now almost well as significant quantities of strategic minerals like undoubtedly the government-in-waiting, must perform platinum, manganese, and chrome. one of its trickiest balancing acts as it seeks to respond to Since February 1990 when President F. W. de Klerk the pent-up demands of the country's black majority on announced his intention to scrap apartheid, most West- the one hand, while assuaging the fears of the largely ern countries have considerably eased sanctions pres- white private sector and foreign investors on the other. sure. On one point there is little disagreement. Despite The FFC lifted its ban on new investment in Decem- boasting the highest per capita income in Africa, and the ber 1990 and—after Denmark relented in December only African country to be ranked by the UN as "devel- 1991—has lifted trade sanctions as well. President Bush oped," South Africa's economy is in deep trouble. rescinded the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act, which Bearing the other distinction of being an economy covered a broad range of U.S. trade and investment with with one of the most inequitable distributions of income South Africa, in July 1991. A few months later, Japan lifted in the world, South Africa began the 1980s with relatively all its economic sanctions against South Africa, except rapid growth in GDP, based mainly on the rise in the those covering computer technology. price1 of gold, which accounts for about a third of export The UN and the Commonwealth have gone along with earnings. GDP growth slowed to an average of 1.5 per- the ANC's call for a phased lifting of sanctions, leaving cent for the decade as a whole, minus 1 percent in 1990, trade and financial sanctions in place until South Africa is and minus 0.5 percent in 1991, against a population securely on the road to democratic elections, and retain- growth rate of some 3 percent per annum. Unemploy- ing the arms embargo until a new government is ment has been running at 40 percent, or some 2.5 million installed. But these restrictions have little bearing on people, while inflation has soared to 15 percent, despite South Africa's key business partners, which have already harsh monetary measures to curb it. passed their own legislation easing sanctions. Kven South African Breweries—which in the past has South African fruit and wine, once pariahs in Western tiirived on hardship, reporting consistent profits since grocery stores, are finding their way back onto the 1977—recorded a slump last year. "Mass consumer shelves. Recent trade figures show that exports rose by spending has finally succumbed under the impact of the 11.9 percent between January and October 1991, com- most protracted down-swing experienced in South Africa pared to the corresponding period in 1990. since the second World War," the company said in its Commercial financial markets have also started open- annual report. ing up again, with the Deutsche Bank putting together a This has partly been accounted for by the deepening $124 million bond issue for the South African govern- world recession, decline in gold prices, and drought. But ment in September 1991, followed in January by a $318 it is also a reflection of the inherent limitations of a sys- million five-year bond issue lead-managed by the French tem that restricts the buying power of the largest seg- bank Paribas and the Swiss Banking Corporation. ment of the population, the huge cost of administering The result is that South Africa has been able to borrow apartheid, and the effects of sanctions. to cover its international debt obligations, contributing to Although the jury is still out on the real impact of sanc- a build-up in foreign reserves and predictions that South tions, even the conservative, London-based Economist Africa will experience a positive growth rate this year. magazine estimates that South Africa lost $8 billion through trade sanctions, and another $32 billion as a ut, warns economist Ronnie Bethlehem, current- result of banking sanctions over the last fiveyears . ly a visiting scholar at Oxford University, the Forced repayment of debts and lack of access to credit Bcountry is far from being out of the woods. "It is from the International Monetary Fund has resulted in a easy to kick-start an economy, especially if it has been in huge suppression of imports. The independent, Washing- a recession," he says. "The question is, how sustainable ton-based Investor Responsibility Research Center is that growth?" (IRRC) estimates that South Africa's economy is 20 to 35 One indicator is business confidence—or the lack of it. percent smaller today than it would have been without Recent surveys carried out by the South African Cham- the expensive import substitution strategies that Pretoria ber of Business show local enthusiasm still at a low ebb. has adopted since the 1960s. Foreign investors, reports the IRRC, are not jumping up According to data compiled by IRRC, which carries and down either. out research on a variety of business and public policy The 1991 edition of IRRC's International Business in related issues, 403 companies, 215 of them from the U.S., South Africa shows that 454 non-U.S. companies have have disinvested from South Africa over the last decade. direct investment or employees in South Africa, a net The last few months have brought slightly better for- increase of 21 companies on the count made a year tunes. Uncertainties in the former Soviet Union have before. But the report also shows that 171 companies—a resulted in brighter prospects for South Africa's mining net increase of 37 on 1990—have non-equity links with sector, which supplies 46 percent of the world's gold, as companies in South Africa, such as licensing and distri- bution agreements which do not involve new investment. Anne Shepherd is a Ij)ndott-based journalist who has travelled widely in and written extensively on African economic and political issues. With 104 U.S. companies retaining direct investments Africa Report 50 or employees in South Africa, the between black and white living stan- THE NUMBER OF U.S. report finds that the number of disin- dards will cost $20 to $30 billion annu- vestments by American companies has COMPANIES WITH DIRECT ally. 'The role of the state," says Vella dropped since 1987. But, according to Pillay, economic adviser to the ANC, the IRRC, "the number of U.S. compa- INVESTMENT OR "will be fundamental in restructuring nies with direct investment or employ- the economy." EMPLOYEES IN SOUTH ees in South Africa is the lowest it has The ANC has fallen far short of ever been," and there has been no new AFRICA IS THE LOWEST IT advocating wholesale nationalization, U.S. investment in the last year. but a number of gestures, construed A major problem specific to U.S. HAS EVER BEEN, AND as being anti-free enterprise, have companies, according to IRRC caused rumblings in the business researcher Jennifer Kibbe, who recent- THERE HAS BEEN NO NEW community. For starters, the ANC has ly authored the report, U.S. Business in AMERICAN INVESTMENT taken a firm stand against the govern- South Africa: The Road Ahead, is the ment's reverse policy of privatization, continued existence, despite the lifting IN THE LAST YEAR. being taken to reduce state subsidies, of the federal government's sanctions, on the grounds that this is a ploy to of local sanctions laws in five states, 42 put as much of the economy into cities, and 11 counties. white hands as possible before a black government takes The lifting of U.S. sanctions also leaves in place the over. Gramm Amendment, through which the U.S. maintains The ANC is also studying U.S.-style anti-trust laws as a its veto on IMF lending to South Africa. Access to these way of breaking up the 10 corporate conglomerates that resources is crucial to reversing the current import control 90 percent of the Johannesburg stock market. depression policy, and would boost business confidence. While big business argues that such monopolies are the But the amendment can only be rescinded by the U.S. only way for local business to compete successfully over- Congress, which is likely to hold onto this card until seas, the ANC says black entrepreneurs stand no chance democracy is guaranteed. of entering the business sector under such conditions. The ANC, treading a difficult tightrope between want- Another bone of contention is the ANC proposal to ing economic sanctions to remain in place for the raise taxes. At present, South African taxes constitute 27 moment, but not wishing to scare away potential future percent of GDP, compared with 42 percent in Britain. The investors, has been urging businessmen to make ANC argues that if tax revenues were raised to 35 per- inquiries now, but to refrain from investing until transi- cent of GDP, and assuming a 3 percent growth, state rev- tional arrangements are in place. enue would be boosted by an additional $40 billion per Some companies—whether for moral reasons or out annum, which would go a long way in redressing the of self-interest—have endorsed this argument. Accord- inequities of the past. Businessmen argue, on the other ing to Kibbe's report, at least two U.S. companies, Nike hand, that the proportion of tax to GDP simply reflects and Reebok, have publicly stated that they will not go South Africa's narrow tax base. Increasing company tax, back to South Africa, including by way of non-equity ties, which stands at 48 percent of profits, will be a disincen- until there is universal suffrage. tive to investment, they warn. Mounting township violence, despite the commence- The recent ANC-led strike against the switch from a ment of all-party political talks in December, has also general sales tax to a VAT system of taxation—which dampened business enthusiasm. "Even if parties and extended taxes to a number of previously exempt basic leaders are negotiating in good faith, there is a huge consumer items, while benefitting business by offering question mark over whether people on the ground will new rebates on capital and intermediary goods—also put abide by the rules on which they agree," Kibbe noted. the two sides on a collision course. In the longer term, the all-important issue for both However, the strike—the largest of its kind in South local and foreign investors is how the ANC plans to Africa, costing business $775 million in lost achieve the delicate balance between achieving growth revenues—also sent home the powerful message to the and equity. private sector that in the interests of its own survival, Despite the lifting of most apartheid legislation, the there will have to be some give and take. As the Chamber richest 5 percent of the population own 88 percent of the of Business recently commented: "If business is to save wealth, while over 50 percent live below the poverty itself, social programs may, in the near and middle term, level. The government spends five times more on whites become even more important to survival than profit." than on blacks, with Indians and "Coloureds" falling Informal discussions between the ANC and the Cham- somewhere in between. ber are leading to talk of a "social accord" between busi- Econometrix, a South African think tank, estimates ness and a future government. Credit for the idea goes to that the mere ending of the inefficient apartheid adminis- Bethlehem, who argues that since "no one in South trative machinery will save $8 billion annually. But Africa wants to inherit a wasteland," compromise is Econometrix calculates that just to start closing the gap everyone's best option. O

51 March/April 19 9 2 \wmnrAm ANDREWMELDRUM

UNITING THE OPPOSITION?

The return to Zimbabwe after seven mismanagement. I want to see the right principles pursued. years' exile in the United States of The people of Zimbabwe don't want any form of communism veteran nationalist Ndabaningi Sithole any more." As Sithole was driven away might be the spark that galvanizes from the airport, more mem- bers of his Zimbabwe African the political opposition to President National Union-Ndonga (Zanu- Ndonga) party held up ban- Robert Mugabe's de facto one-party ners greeting his return. Mem- bers of Zimbabwe's other tiny government, Although Sithole was minority parties, the Zimbab- we Unity Movement (ZUM) written off years ago as a spent force, and the United African his return into a rapidly opening up National Congress (UANC), also waved signs welcoming political climate could spawn an Sithole. Sithole then held a press alliance of tiny minority parties conference and addressed a rally at Highfield Grounds, determined to end Zanu-PF rule. the township field where African nationalists held mass rallies in the 1960s and 1970s to challenge the Rhodesian government. Although Sithole's crowds were small, the events were reminiscent of the old days of African nation- Smiling broadly and holding his alism. Yet Sithole's return marked a new phase of Zim- arms aloft, veteran Zimbabwean babwean politics, an upsurge in opposition party politics. politician Ndabaningi Sithole On paper, Zimbabwe has been a multi-party democra- greeted singing supporters at cy since its independence in 1980. Opposition parties Harare airport as he ended have always held parliamentary seats. Joshua Nkomo's seven years of self-imposed exile Zimbabwe African People's Union (Zapu) held 17 seats in the United States. until that opposition party merged with Robert Mugabe's The short, rotund Sithole was Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu- quickly engulfed by several hundred PF) in 1987. Since the 1990 elections, there have been Sarah-Jane Poole followers as he shook their hands, hugged three opposition members of Parliament out of a total of them, and thanked them for coming to welcome him. 150 seats. Sithole's Zanu-Ndonga has one seat and Edgar "I came back to get people organized politically so we Tekere's ZUM has two seats. can get rid of the source of the problems that face our In practice, however, Zimbabwe has operated very country," said Sithole on the steps of the airport. "Zim- much as a de facto one-party state which victimizes the babwe has economic and political problems as a result of opposition and tightly controls the news media. Robert

Africa Report 52 Mugabe's ruling Zanu-PF has made it very difficult for Mugabe. CIO officers are current- Sithole supporters opposition parties to hold meetings and campaign. Dur- ly awaiting trial for the abduction ing the 1990 elections, opposition ZUM meetings were and possible murder of Rashiwe awaiting bis arrival broken up by police and those attending were arrested Guzha, a young woman who was in Harare ajler seven and held for 24 hours without charges. One of ZUM's top taken into custody by CIO officers years of exile officials, Patrick Kombayi, was shol by men identified as 18 months ago and never seen members of the government's Central Intelligence Orga- again. In court testimony, police stated they did not nization (CIO), but two years later police have still not actively investigate the Guzha case because they were made arrests in connection with the shooting. afraid of the CIO. The CIO appears to operate as a law unto itself and The Zimbabwean government owns the country's routinely harasses Zimbabweans who criticize the gov- only radio and television broadcasting network, its daily ernment, particularly if their attack is aimed at Robert newspapers, and news agency. Over Ihe years, Zimbab- Mugabe. Recently, young playwright Denford Magora weans have become inured to news coverage that leaves was detained by the CIO after his work, Dr. Government, out any hint of criticism of the government. was performed in Harare. The CIO officers quizzed Just one year ago, Robert Mugabe was campaigning Magora about whether he had based his satirical play on for a legislated one-party state. But by then, Africa's new wind of change had swept into Zimbabwe, bringing popu- Andrew Meldmm, a contributing editor to Africa Report, is an American journalist who is frontline editor ofthe Johannesburg Weekly Mail. Based lar support for multi-party democracy. Facing opposition in Harare, he also writes for The Guardian ofljmdon. to a legislated one-party state even within his own Zanu-

March /Apr it 19 9 DEATH OF AN AFRICAN FIRST LADY

lthough it was well known that Zimbabwe's serious economic and political challenges of his 11 First Lady had suffered from critical kidney fail- years in office. Aure for years, the news of Sally Mugabe's Despite her illness, she had been an active force death still came as a shock. within her husband's party, the Zimbabwe African Mrs. Mugabe had endured regular dialysis for 11 National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF). In October years, suffered collapses, and had undergone opera- 1989, she became secretary of the party's Women's tions in both Zimbabwe and London. She had always League, as well as a member of its executive bodies, managed to fight her way back in order to welcome the Central Committee and the Politburo. Sally heads of state, vigorously campaign for her husband, Mugabe also founded the Child Survival Foundation, make grueling overseas visits, and carry out impres- which channeled international aid to local child wel- sive charity work for Zimbabwe's disadvantaged chil- fare projects. Within the party, she became known as dren and disabled. Cliinamo "Amai," Shona for mother, a title In 1991, Mrs. Mugabe suf- that was particularly poignant as fered a serious relapse after the Mugabes' only child died at which she was not seen in public age two of malaria. for months, but she slowly recov- Yet Sally Mugabe was never ered in time to preside over the fully accepted by the wider Zim- glittering Commonwealth heads babwean public because she of government meeting in Octo- was a foreigner, from Ghana. She ber, where Zimbabwe hosted was also viewed suspiciously Britain's Queen Elizabeth II and because she had made the 43 Commonwealth leaders. That Women's League the strongest two-week event took its toll and supporter of Mugabe's failed toward the end, the usually viva- drive to establish a one-party clous Mrs. Mugabe could barely state. In recent years, her name shuffle in and out of appear- was frequently mentioned in con- ances. nection wiith high-level corrup- Her health continued to fall and the dialysis stopped tion, but no hard evidence was ever uncovered. working. A kidney transplant had long ago been ruled It is an indication of the current unpopularity of out as not feasible. Instead, an emergency procedure Mugabe's government that the public reaction to his was carried out to stave off looming death, but after a wife's death was muted and practical. Upon hearing brief recovery, Sally Mugabe's condition deteriorated of her death, the first thing workers wanted to know rapidly and she died January 27 at 7:30 am. was if there would be a public holiday. (There was Sally Mugabe's death at 59 left Robert Mugabe not.) without his closest political adviser and confidante While the government may be unpopular, Robert just as he is being confronted by some of the most Mugabe himself is not. Most Zimbabweans took the

PF, Mugabe backed down from that goal and also zon and Parade, have won widespread readership for renounced Marxism and socialism as the basis of the their combination of scandal, investigative reporting, and country's economy. music and sports reviews. Eager readers are lining up on Mugabe and other top Zanu-PF officials thought they the sidewalks to purchase the independent weekly news- could settle back into their unchallenged ways where papers—the Financial Gazette, the Weekend Gazette, and there was single-party rule in all but name. But events the new Sunday Times—which publicize big and small had moved too fast for that. Zimbabweans pressed for misdoings and feature columnists who outspokenly real pluralism and demanded more than just lip service attack government economic and political policies. All to multi-party democracy. Significantly, Western donors these publications have roundly slammed the repressive to Zimbabwe's new economic structural adjustment plan influence of the CIO, making the Magora and Guzha also demanded to see signs of real multi-party politics. cases causes-celebres throughout Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe's independent press became more lively It is into this rapidly opening political climate that Nda- and exposed government misdoings, in both high and baningi Sithole returned to Harare in late January. Sit- low places. The independent monthly magazines, Hori- hole was widely discredited for collaborating with white

Africa Re p o r / death seriously because they knew it would badly headdresses. Sally Mugabe was the first female to be affect their president. declared a national hero and she was buried alongside Mrs. Mugabe was born Sarah Hayfron in Accra, 16 leading Zimbabwean patriots at Heroes Acre. Ghana, to a welf-educated family of lawyers and news- Sally Mugabe's Ghanaian heritage came to the fore paper editors. She and her twin sister, Esther, were during her funeral. According to Ghanaian custom, she studious schoolgirls who avidly followed the charis- lay in state on a golden bed, flown in especially from matic Ghanaian nationalist, Kwame Nkrumah, in the Ghana, in an elaborate white lace dress. Her hands late 1940s. Sally became a schoolteacher and in 1959 and neck were adorned with traditional Ghanaian gold met Robert Mugabe, who had come to teach in newly jewelry and trade beads. independent Ghana. Those early years of Ghanaian Ghanaian drumming and music alternated with a Independence were heady, exciting times. Robert and group of Catholic Zimbabwean nuns who sat around Sally talked about the changes in Ghana and the inde- the bed and sang traditional Zimbabwean hymns. It pendence sweeping through all of Africa. They also dis- was a spellbinding mix of Ghanaian and Roman cussed how white-ruled Rhodesia would eventually Catholic traditions, as well as Zimbabwean and West- give way to majority-ruled Zimbabwe. ern customs. The two married in 1961 in Salisbury, Rhodesia, Thousands of Zimbabweans filed by the bed and where Sally bridled under the racial discrimination. The Robert Mugabe shook hands with each one. During his couple had to Ifve in a matchbox township house in wife's final illness, Mugabe appeared increasingly harsh contrast to the spacious homes to which Sally twitchy and out of sorts. He is a guarded, fastidious was accustomed in Ghana. As Robert Mugabe made man who does not relax easily and who will sorely his way in nationalist politics, Sally quickly threw her- miss his wife's counsel now. self into the struggle as well. She organized the first "She was a great support and help to me," said women's protests that were broken up by police. In Robert Mugabe during the six-day mourning period. "I 1962, she was imprisoned with her husband and then don't know if I can carry on without her." went into exile while Robert remained in jail. There have been rumors that the beleaguered In 1963, the couple had their only child, Mugabe will step down from the presidency. Most Zim- Nhamodzenyika, Shona for "our country has problems." babweans hope he will carry on, because despite the The child died two years later of malaria in Ghana, unpopularity of his government, they see Mugabe him- while Robert Mugabe, in jail without charges in Rhode- self as the country's most able leader. Robert Mugabe sia, was refused permission to attend the funeral. must muster the confidence and will to drastically After 10 years of exile and separation, Robert and reshape his government, to curb rampant corruption, Sally Mugabe reunited in Mozambique. Once Zimbab- and revitalize the stagnant economy. They are the cru- we became independent and Robert Mugabe became cial tasks for his political survival and they will be diffi- president, Sally Mugabe became an activist First Lady cult indeed for the grieving president to carry out with- in the political arena and also set a new fashion for out his dedicated ally, his wife. • wearing long African-print dresses with turban-like —A.M.

Rhodesian leader Ian Smith when he left the country in Enoch Dumbutshena. "The trend in Africa seems to favor 1984. During his seven years of self-imposed exile, Sil- democratic change. I think Zimbabweans are realizing hole was based at the right-wing Heritage Foundation in they can work together, not as single little parties, to Washington, D.C. change things." As Dumbutshena suggested, Sithole's The new growth of political opposition as a result of return has been heralded by political analysts here as a widespread dissatisfaction with the Mugabe government spark to form a united opposition to President Mugabe's meant that Sithole's return generated considerable rule. excitement. "Sithole returning to challenge Zanu-PF" bla- At 71, Sithole may be too old to lead such a coalition, zoned a banner headline in Zimbabwe's independent but even after his lengthy flight from the United States, Financial Gazette. "Sithole breaks his exile and comes he gave quick, concise answers to the press and went on out fighting" proclaimed Horizon magazine. to address a rally of a few thousand supporters. A "His timing has been superb. People are fed up and Methodist minister, Sithole sermonized to his supporters are just thinking they can build a grand political alliance about the dangers of communism and praised the new to change the government," said retired Chief Justice democratic trends in Angola and Zambia. 55 M a r c h / A p r i I 1 (J 9 2 While in the U.S. and under the wing of the Heritage The core of Sithole's support is undeniably small, but Foundation, Sithole had made several statements in sup- it appears that he is being welcomed by other minority port of Mozambique's Renamo rebels, which also had parties that hope he will be a key member of a new oppo- close relations with the Heritage group. The Mugabe sition coalition. government had charged Sithole's relations with Ren- "The Zimbabwe Unity Movement welcomes Nda- amo were treasonous, as Zimbabwe has some 7,000 baningi Sithole to the United Front," stated a profession- troops battling the rebels in central Mozambique. The ally lettered banner outside Sithole's home on the day of government had warned that it might arrest Sithole upon his return. his return because of his contacts with Renamo, but gov- Zimbabwe's economic malaise has spawned a growing ernment officials privately admitted they did not believe political opposition. Three new parties have been charges against him would hold up in court. Sithole has launched in recent months. The Democratic Party, led by since moved about Harare freely without any problems Emmanuel Magoche, is a breakaway from Edgar or interference from the CIO. Tekere's ill-fated ZUM. Little is known about the Mono- Certainly, Sithole made no bones about his support for matapa People's Alliance, which sends anti-government Renamo. "I support Renamo because they are fighting mailings to thousands in Zimbabwe from the United for multi-party democracy in Mozambique and an end to States. The National Progressive Alliance, was formed in the one-party Marxist dictatorship in that country," said January by its president, Canciwell Nziramasanga. Also, Sithole. "I support that fight just as I support the fight of the almost moribund UANC, which was previously led by Unita in Angola and of the MMD in Zambia." Muzorewa, is now being revived by Edward Mazaiwana. The sensation that Sithole's return created is remark- All these minority parties have stated they are ready able, considering that his departure in 1984 caused bare- to form a broad alliance with Sithole to oppose the ly a murmur and his subsequent state- Mugabe government, as different ments in support of Renamo have been interests united to form the Move- broadly unpopular. Yet now, many Zim- ment for Multi-party Democracy babweans are looking to Sithole to THE MOST THREAT- (MMD) in Zambia to oust Kenneth Kaunda. shake up the country's stultified politi- ENING POLITICAL cal status quo. The most threatening political chal- So far, Sithole and his backers have CHALLENGE TO lenge to Mugabe, however, may be flawlessly stage-managed the return of yet to come. A group of successful a liberating hero. But the question is MUGABE MAY COME Shona businessmen, who have so far whether Sithole, who was written off WITH A CROUP OF avoided politics, are intending to as a spent force years ago, will be able launch a new party soon. These busi- to sustain the interest generated by his SUCCESSFUL SHONA nessmen are led by James Chikerema well-publicized return. and include George Nyandoro and BUSINESSMEN, WHO Sithole has a long and checkered Henry Munangatire. They have finan- political career. An early nationalist, he ARE INTENDING TO cial acumen and muscle and they was a founder of Joshua Nkomo's Zapu have not been sullied by associations and then in 1963 he led the breakaway LAUNCH A NEW PARTY with Ian Smith or other unsavory that became Zanu, of which Mugabe political bedfellows. was also a founder. Sithole was jailed SOON. "Zimbabwe's opposition parties? I by the Smith government in 1969 and wish we had a real one," sighed Uni- then released in 1974. Charges that Sit- versity of Zimbabwe political scientist hole had secret talks with Smith brought his ouster as Jonathan Moyo. "There are lots of these little parties crop- Zanu's chairman. He renounced the armed struggle ping up, but most are the worn-out old parties from the against minority rule and was a key member of the inter- Zimbabwe-Rhodesia days. As yet, I just don't think we've nal settlement in 1978 which saw Abel Muzorewa as a seen an opposition party that can gel the general dissatis- window-dressing leader of the short-lived Zimbabwe- faction that is among the people." Rhodesia government. Moyo admits that the changed political situation in As a result of his collaboration with Smith, Sithole's Zimbabwe is allowing new political groups to form and to new party did not win a single seat in the 1980 elections. air their views in the assertive independent press. Sithole left Zimbabwe in 1984, charging there had been "We must see Zimbabwe's new political climate as a an assassination attempt against him. step forward," said Moyo. "Just a year ago we were wor- Yet, Sithole retained an avid following in his home ried that a one-party state would be imposed. Now that area of Chipinge in southeastern Zimbabwe, the center has been shelved and new parties are coming up. Even of the small group of Shona people who speak the Ndau though I don't believe any of the new parties has the dialect. In both the 1985 and 1990 elections, Sithole's leadership or the platform to really challenge the govern- party won a parliamentary seat for Chipinge, despite the ment, in time they may develop into credible alternatives. continued self-imposed exile of their leader. Zimbabwe is moving into multi-party politics." O

Africa Report 56 BY HEATHER HILL

It is difficult to imagine Malawi without Life President Ngwazi Dr. H. Kamuzu Banda, who has ruled with an iron grip for 30 years. He controls virtually every aspect of society and Maiawians have been reduced to a tranquilized, unthinking state. But Banda is now a frail nonagenarian and Maiawians are waiting to see , what the future will bring.

BAN DA'S I MACE

United Nations

M a r c h / A p r i I 19 9 astings Banda is said to be dying. His "Before boarding the Boeing 737-300 aircraft, the Life excellency the Life President, Ngwazi President bade farewell to his people, who included cabi- Dr. H. Kamuzu Banda, is well into his net ministers, party, civic, and government officials. 90s and not even the longest-surviving "The presidential plane started taxiing at 12:20 as dictator on the African continent can thousands and thousands of people waved and Mbumba escapHe the clutches of mortality. sang, "Akupita apo eeh! a Ngwazi Banda" [there goes Diplomats who met the diminutive president of Ngwazi Banda]. Malawi at the Commonwealth heads of government "The plane finally took off at 12:25." meeting in Harare, Zimbabwe, last October said the frail Meanwhile, Malawi's rumor mill went into overdrive. little man could barely move. One photograph taken at Banda, it was whispered, went to Britain for medical the meeting—a picture which would never be published tests. He had major surgery there. He was called to West- in Malawi—caught Banda as he was being helped to his minster because Britain is worried about the lack of suc- feet after falling down. It is probably the only picture in cession. "Something is going on," said a businessman the world to show Banda on his knees: As a rule, people who lives in Blantyre. "We just don't know what it is." kneel to him. Banda, however, was not so feeble that he was unable Hastings Kamuzu Banda is one of the last of Africa's Big to exercise his dictatorial powers. Less than a week after Men, and arguably the most bizarre. His political career returning to Malawi, he fired his top civil servant, J.C. spans the rise of African independence in the early 1960s, Malewezi, "with immediate effect." The departure was when self-appointed presidents created Marxist, military announced in the Malawi Times on December 2: "A one-party states, to today's difficult dawning of multi-party spokesman for the party's national headquarters in democracy. As paramount leader of the country's sole Lilongwe said that as secretary to the president and cabi- political party, the Malawi Congress Party, Banda rules his net and the topmost civil servant, Malewezi's behavior tiny agricultural enclave in central Africa with an iron had not been exemplary, he had not been loyal and hon- whim, and it is his dubious achievement that time has est in carrying out his duties. effectively passed Malawi by. How the country will handle " 'The government will not tolerate any civil servant the pent-up decades of change that are sure to sweep in with similar behavior and attitude,' the spokesman con- after him is the central question of his succession. cluded." When the Commonwealth summit ended on October Shortly after Malewezi's dismissal, a Malawi specialist 26, Banda went to Britain, where he remained for a month with Amnesty International, Richard Carver, pointed out with an entourage that included Malawi's "Official Host- in a BBC interview that government (and thus party) ess," Cecilia Tamanda Kadzamira, and her uncle, John officials are often fired for blowing the whistle on corrupt Tembo. "Mama" Kadzamira controls access to the ailing practices. Carver cited the case of Aleke Banda, a former Banda while Tembo, a highly unpopular strongman-in- managing director of Press Holdings, a large group of waiting, currently holds the position of party treasurer. companies of whose 5,000 shares the president holds Together they have established a formidable base from 4,999. In 1980, Aleke Banda questioned Banda's with- which to launch their takeover of Malawi after Banda's drawal of 6 million Malawi kwacha ($3.3 million) from death. Until that apocalyptic moment arrives, however, the Press Holdings bank account. A week later he was they are sheltering, like so many others in Malawi's elite, arrested and detained; Aleke Banda remains in jail to this under the umbrella of Banda's absolute power. day. Banda returned from Britain to Malawi on November n a more recent and equally draconian measure, 22 to the usual hero's welcome: traditional dancers, Banda fired his entire cabinet in December. The dis- choirs, flowers, official delegations, speeches. The road I missals were announced in a terse news bulletin to Kamuzu International Airport in Lilongwe, the capital issued by the government news service. No reasons were city, was closed two days before Banda's arrival for a given. As it was, of the 14 positions in the cabinet, Banda rehearsal of the joyous welcome. The day the president held the most important four portfolios himself— agricul- arrived from Britain, the airport was shut to all other air ture, public works, external affairs, and justice. traffic until the protracted ceremonies were concluded. It's difficult to imagine Malawi without Dr. Hastings When Banda flew to Blantyre, where his preferred Banda, because the country is the president. Banda, presidential palace is located, three days later, the born to humble parents of the dominant Chewa people Malawi Times, the country's one daily newspaper, devot- around the turn of the century, left Malawi as a young ed its front page to his voyage: "Before leaving Lilongwe, man to work as a hospital orderly in Southern Rhodesia the Life President inspected a guard of honor mounted and a miner in South Africa, where he began night by the Second Battalion of the Malawi Rifles at his Mtun- school courses in medicine. He emigrated and spent 40 thame Residence. He then drove to Kamuzu Internation- years in the United States and Britain as a general practi- al Airport, past thousands of jubilant people waving on tioner. both sides of Kamuzu Highway... In 1958, he was invited to return to the then Nyasa- land, a British protectorate, to become president of the Heather Hill is a Canadian journalist working in Harare as an editor of Africa South magazine. Nyasaland African Congress. He was jailed during a state Africa Report 58 of emergency declared by the colonial authorities, and of a father speaking to his multiple, slightly stupid chil- then taken to Britain for a constitutional conference. In dren: Plant your maize seedlings, work hard, I'm proud an election held in 1961, Banda's Malawi Congress Party of you. won by a landslide and Banda became president. In 1964, "His Excellency, the Life President, Ngwazi Dr. H. Malawi became an independent state, and in 1971, Banda Kamuzu Banda, has directed that as from yesterday all declared himself president-for-life. party public meetings should be held only during the Banda spent the decade after independence consoli- weekends in the afternoon hours...to give the people dating his power through a series of ruthless and arbi- enough time to prepare their gardens during this rainy trary dismissals of his lieutenants. In the first year of his season," is a typical directive issued through the Malawi presidency, he revealed his strategy toward recalcitrant Times. cabinet ministers; "I tell them to be silent, and they are 'This is a police state," a development worker stated silent." A network of spies, incorporating the army, the point blank—after shutting the door to his office. Cer- police force, the Young Pioneers (an elite group whose tainly, in Malawi one observes the pervasive fear of peo- members can't be arrested without the president's per- ple to do or say anything that may become public. "It's mission) and the Women's League of the Malawi impossible to put together a management team in Malawi Congress Party keeps the circle around Banda well- because nobody has an opinion," commented the Malaw- informed. ian head of a British-based company. In the early 1970s, the repression reached its height, he extent to which Banda has reduced his 7 mil- when Jehovah's Witnesses, journalists, and academics lion subjects to a tranquilized. unthinking state is were imprisoned and sympathetic expatriates were Tone of the most unfortunate aspects of this coun- deported. Today, there is not a single foreign journalist try. The president's defenders would counter that resident in Malawi. Malawi has enjoyed a political stability unusual in a con- Dissident groups have sprung up in exile but none has tinent beset by wars and military coups. White residents mounted more than token opposition. An attempted coup of the country are happy with Banda because he has in 1967 resulted in the death of Yatuta Chiziza, the for- allowed them to continue running their profitable tobac- mer minister of home affairs. Since then, there has been co, tea, and sugar estates. Before free market economics no further open opposition to Banda's rule. swept sub-Saharan Africa in the late 1980s, Malawi was a Parallel with the president's system of political control capitalist oasis in the Marxist desert. "We do not sup- is an elaborate code for social and cultural behavior. The press the acquisitive and possessive instinct here. most striking example for visitors to the country are the Instead we encourage it," Banda said in his opening rules of dress: women must wear skirts that cover the address to Parliament in 1977. knee including when they sit down. (Women who persist This economic philosophy, combined with his friend- in wearing short skirts can be deported.) Long hair on ship with an apartheid-era South Africa, made Banda men is forbidden. It is not unusual for male tourists to be unpopular with other African heads of state. While shorn of their locks at the airport or to be told to tie the other "frontline states" opposing South Africa officially ponytail into a bun. refused to have dealings with Pretoria, South Africa has When the presidential motorcade passes, Malawians had an embassy in Malawi and openly traded with the are obliged to go to the nearest window or sidewalk and country. wave to it. It is forbidden to mock or criticize the presi- In these dying days of the Banda regime, uncertainty dent. It is forbidden to make a photocopy of a newspaper over his succession mounts in proportion with apprehen- photograph of the president. And any reference to him sion over John Tembo's accession. (A development work- must employ the full title: His Excellency the Life Presi- er in Blantyre observed that Malawians, timid and dent Ngwazi Dr. H. Kamuzu Banda. oppressed as they are, have told him that they despise The news media in Malawi is heavily censored, with John Tembo.) Tembo and Kadzamira are busy mending a long list of publications under ban. The Malawi Broad- fences with neighboring Zimbabwe and Mozambique, casting Corporation consists of a semi-commercial radio and sending out friendly signals to the international com- station which broadcasts in English and Chewa, the two munity. The freeing of 87 political prisoners last year was, official languages of the country. There is no television diplomats in Malawi were told, the work of a newly liber- service; only a handful of hotels are allowed to have al John Tembo. satellite dishes. Residents of Malawi who wish to follow But the succession is by no means a certain thing. world news tend to do so through short-wave radio as Kadzamira is a single woman—a taboo in Africa—and (he Malawi Times is woefully inadequate for this pur- Tembo may not be able to surmount the accrued ill will pose—the Gulf War, for example, was announced with a that clings to him. Under the country's constitution, the few paragraphs on its front page. secretary-general of the Malawi Congress Party suc- Through this system, the president has managed to ceeds the president—but at present, this position is shape every aspect of life in Malawi in his own image, unfilled. As for Banda himself, all he has said on the sub- which is that of a paternalistic, omnipotent, agrarian ject is that "the people" will choose his successor. He god. When he speaks to his people, it is in the language might as well have said: "Apres moi, le deluge." O

59 March /April 19 9 2 R. FINKEL BROTHERS IN

With the war walks of life over, Angola are very war- is forging a weary, and new national army of 40,000 men peace has energized the rebuild- out of the MPLA armed forces and ing process as the two formerly the Unita guerrillas who were ene- warring sides fight it out not on the mies for 16 years. Angolans in all battlefield, but in politics. After battling for half his life in But as the euphoria over the long-negotiated peace Angola's defense against the Unita agreement has faded, the country must work to over- rebels, Alindo Ferreira has joined come major obstacles to the realization of its provisions. forces with his long-time enemies to The unification of the armed forces is of paramount con- restore peace to this war-torn south- cern. west African nation. "The process sounds simple, but it is very complex," "We are all Angolans and now said British Col. John Longman, one of a team of British, have to learn to work together," said Portuguese, and French advisers assisting the Angolan the 33-year-old government army government with the formation of the new army. "We are major based in Lubango, capital of the southern province talking about two very different groups, a guerrilla army of Huila. Alongside fighters from Jonas Savimbi's Unita, and a conventional one and the integration of the two." Ferreira now prepares for a joint battle—to unify the war- Under the ceasefire signed on May 31 by President ring factions into a national army. Jose Eduardo dos Santos and Savimbi, both sides and While latent tension has sporadically surfaced their weapons must be secured in 45 designated assem- between the two sides since the end of the brutal conflict, bly points scattered throughout the country before the palpable war fatigue among the Angolan people, as well actual unification process can commence. as pressures by the international community, appear to However, the assembly process has dragged behind be sufficient guarantees against a serious derailment of the schedule drafted in the peace agreement, which also the peace process. calls for internationally monitored elections to be held Vicki R. Finkel is a freelance journalist based in Luanda, Angola. this year. That peace accord, ending the bitter 16-year Africa Report 60 ARMS civil war which broke out shortly after Angola gained independence from Portugal in 1975, mandated the con- tainment of all troops, verified by United Nations observers, by August 1, 1991. But so far, only an estimat- ed 68 percent of the total forces have been counted in the assembly points. VickiR Finkel While observers acknowl- edge the probable inflation of the figures, they blame acute food shortages at the assem- bly points for the low turnout, and a potential desertion from the camps. "Now thousands of idle young men without food remain near arms in the assembly points," said Rami- ro da Silva, the director of the United Nations World Food Programme office. "Without guaranteed food, they will form banditry groups," he- added. Citing "critical" food short- ages as threatening the peace process, the United Nations launched a S27.3 million emergency appeal in October targeting the demobilizing troops. Vieki R, Finkel The United States has com- mitted approximately one- War damage in Lunda third of this target figure, and Norte: Angola has has begun to deliver emergen- cy relief supplies in a bid to suffered an estimated safeguard the peace. "We want $30 billion in the peace process to succeed destruction of its with free and multi-party elec- infrastructure tions held in the country," said Philip Davis, an air force captain who is one of six Ameri- can military officers serving as monitors of the peace agreement and is administering the delivery of the relief supplies. Unlike the years when Washington supplied covert aid and open assistance for Savimbi's Unita forces, the current assistance is going to both camps. However, in a continual show of support for Unita, Congress has ear- marked $30 million to help in its transformation from a

61 March/April 19 9 2 military movement into a political party vying for votes in ditionally lived in the bush, however, have demonstrated the country's first democratic elections scheduled for a higher degree of organization,. September 1992. Abut 150 miles east of Lubango, roughly 900 Unita sol- But even when supplies are available, they do not diers and their families have gathered in the assembly always reach the assembly areas, many of which are inac- point of Mucuio. They live in impressively constructed cessible by road in the war-scarred country which suf- grass thatched houses, retrieve water from a specially fered an estimated $30 billion in damage to its infrastruc- designed reservoir, and have built schools and health ture. A shortage of vehicles, a ravaged road system, the posts for their members. present rains, and residual landmines have spelled a Of the assembled soldiers, the government and Unita logistical nightmare for the distribution of supplies. will contribute equally to the national scaled-down army Military activity, dating back to 1961, with the begin- of 40,000, while the existing national navy and air force ning of Angola's armed insurrection against the Por- will remain at the present 10,000. tuguese colonialists, has riddled the country with deadly But in the selection of individuals to train for the uni- mines. And despite joint government and Unita efforts to fied force, there will be no room for an estimated 150,000 sweep the country of unexploded devices, military soldiers who will join the rising ranks of the unemployed. experts say that undetected mines will pose a threat for Local authorities fear the flood of demobilized soldiers decades. will foster a heightened crime rate. Insufficient food has lowered morale in many areas, "Many of these soldiers have little education, and now principally among the more numerous government with the absence of the war-time curfew, it is very likely forces, some of whom sleep on the damp ground. The that the level of crime will greatly increase here," said an highly disciplined Unita guerrilla fighters, who have tra- Angolan police officer who spoke on condition of

HE LOST GENERAT

sabel Casslndo never dreamed she would see any entire day of the attack, and then returned to our of her family again. But recently, the unimaginable house where I found my mother dead on the floor." Ibecame a reality, when she was reunited with her Having already lost his father, Luiz was transported cousin through the efforts of the Family Tracing Pro- aboard an MPLA military convoy to an orphanage in ject. the capital, Luanda, where he remained until the "I could not believe it was him," said Cassindo of ceasefire paved the way for the tracing project to her cousin, Luiz Alfredo, separated from her for 12 escort him on a search for surviving family in Huambo, years during the bloody civil war. "After all these his original home and one of the hardest hit areas dur- years, I thought he was dead," she added, sporting a ing the fighting, which claimed about half a million "Miss Liberty Centennial" tee-shirt outside her home lives. in the central Angolan city of Huambo. The peace agreement signed on May 31, 1991, by The euphoric reunion is just one of many throughout President Jose Eduardo dos Santos and Unita leader the country indebted to the national Family Tracing Jonas Savimbi, and the subsequent reopening of the Project, striving to locate families of some of the esti- roads, has greatly facilitated tracing efforts, including mated 50,000 orphaned and abandoned children in the Luiz's successful reunion with his cousin. wake of Angola's devastating 16-year war. Parents of many of the youths who live In orphan- "We feel that it Is very important for children to be ages dotting the country are still alive. But they have In a stable family environment, to re-establish a normal been separated for so long that the missing children's life and alleviate the war trauma affecting many of funerals have already been held. them In institutions," said Julia Antonio, head of the Project leaders relate the situation to kids getting national department of orphaned and abandoned chil- lost in a department store. "Only here no one has done dren, and coordinator of the Family Tracing Project. anything about it, and people give them up for dead," Like countless youngsters dumped Into Angola's 28 said Maggie Brown, a social worker with Save The children's institutions, government troops discovered Children UK which is spearheading the Family Tracing Luiz Alfredo fleeing for safety from a siege by Unita in Project. Its fierce guerrilla campaign against the Popular Move- In a bid to track down families, the coordinated ini- ment for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) government. tiative linking government ami roughly 10 private vol- "At 4 am one morning, Unita encircled our village," untary organizations has installed a special tracing recounted 21-year-old Luiz. "I hid in the grass for the team in each of Angola's provinces.

A/r Report anonymity. Luanda police authorities already cite a dra- sweeping of the land mine-riddled provinces and the uni- matic jump of about 600 percent in the crime rate from fication of the two armies—is going slower than sched- 1990 to 1991. uled, observers say that it is not necessarily due to lack Recent devaluations and the lifting of state subsidies of will or distrust on the part of the former belligerent have decreased Angolan shoppers' purchasing power. forces. "If a similar process was occurring in the U.S., I Sprawling black markets in the capital, where an estimat- would question whether the two sides were being duplic- ed 70 percent of Luandans work, breed criminality. On an itous," says Davis. "But here if the process is slowed average day, the largest of these congested venues, down, it is usually because a truck has broken down or Roque Santeiro, named after a Brazilian soap opera, there is no radio communication." holds a staggering 80,000 people, and was the site of a But the real test of trust, some believe, will come with recent necklacing of a thief by market vendors. the as-yet unscheduled demobilization, when each side Violent outbreaks, however, are not limited to urban will no longer retain control of weapons in their respec- areas. In early January, four British tourists driving in tive camps. Land Rovers were killed in an ambush near a Unita "Demobilization and the relinquishing of arms to a assembly point SO miles north of Lubango. Unita has national storage center will only happen when both sides denied responsibility for the murders, which occurred at no longer feel they face a security threat," said Davis. night on a reportedly unadvisable driving route. Yet the "And politically they have not been ready to make that incident proves that Angola, with its coastal capital once decision." dubbed the "Rio of Africa," is still a far cry from a tourist Years of fighting have taken a brutal toll on the coun- haven. try's 10 million people, who have no desire for war which If the realization of the peace process—including the claimed about half a million lives and denied almost 7

"We photograph and interview all of the children at entered orphanage doors too young to walk, with some the orphanages to find out as much as possible about infants found still strapped to the backs of mothers their histories," said 28-year-old Alinda Chelombo, a lying dead in the bush. Huambo tracing team member. Project staff work Project organizers are confident that many young through village networks, talking to village chiefs, as children can be placed with substitute families. But for well as placing newspaper, radio, and television adver- older ones, especially boys who are harder to place, tisements. the project has a different strategy to encourage them A training video on effective tracing strategies is in to initiate independent lives outside the cramped, iso- production, as approximately half a million returning lated, ill-equipped institutions. refugees and the liberation of thousands of war prison- Amid the banana trees in the hills of Ekunha vil- ers from both sides compound tracing service lage, about 15 miles outside Huambo, war orphans, demands throughout the country, which is almost aided by the project, have begun to construct their three times the size of California. own homes- But the team's work does not end with the success- After six years of living in the Ekunha orphanage, ful location of a child's family. An evaluation of the 18-year-old Antonio Sitila proudly resides in his recent- family's emotional and material state is vital to the ly self-constructed adobe home. "I wanted to start my placement of the child. own life," said Sitila, whose empty pants leg is a bitter "People in the war-ravaged villages suffer from testimony to the hostilities which maimed an estimat- hunger and lack of health and education services," ed 80,000 people. said Abilio Chivala, a Huambo team participant. "We Despite limited funds and inexperienced staff, the have to make sure the children do not leave the ambitious project has united about 650 children with orphanage only to live in even worse conditions." their families since its inception last year. The project's objective, therefore, Is to provide a "We are working with many people who have only a complete reintegration package, supplying vital food fourth-grade education and a week's seminar, but the and non-food assistance to complement a family's nur- project works because it makes sense to them," said turing capacity in an effort to counteract the debilitat- Maggie Brown. "I see this as a positive move toward ing impact of the war on families. reconstruction of the country by investing in individual Many children in institutions, however, have lost all lives." • trace of their past identities. A large number of them —V.R.F.

March/April 19 9 2 million access to basic health services chains, and political persecution" is and clean water supplies. one message suspended over Luan- Exhausted by military battles, it is A STABLE ANGOLA da's congested traffic. The accusation not surprising that moments after the is levelled by the Democratic Renew- REPRESENTS A WEALTH implementation of the long-negotiated al Party, drawing its support from ceasefire, soldiers from both camps OF MINERAL AND AGRI- members of the failed coup attempt were trading food and cigarettes by Nito Alves in 1977. instead of gunfire. CULTURAL POTENTIAL TO But while about 30 political parties Moreover, many Angolans retained have mushroomed in the new climate AVID INVESTORS, EAGER little interest in a war viewed not as of political freedom, the low-budgeted their own, but rather as a costly super- TO PROFIT FROM ITS groups' efforts to promote their ideas power rivalry fought on Angolan soil. among a largely illiterate population However, as the curtain closed on the RECONSTRUCTION. are blocked by uncleared land mines, Cold War, the U.S. and Soviet Union residual occupation by former war- took their places around the negotiat- ring factions, and inequitable access ing table with their respective Angolan allies and a Por- to the state media. tuguese mediator. Now U.S., Russian, and Portuguese In the traditional MPLA stronghold of Luanda, Savim- monitors sit on key local commissions to implement the bi is commonly held responsible for years of suffering peace accords providing for multi-party elections sched- and insecurity. Yet, the rebel leader retains strong back- uled for the end of the year. ing in the south and central highlands, but not blind sup- Perhaps an additional assurance of the war's end rests port. At the end of the year, Unita members who occu- with the shifting winds directing Southern Air Transport. pied a hotel in Savimbi's home province of Bie were met The Florida-based air transport company employed by with hurled stones and angry shouts in the city. The the Central Intelligence Agency to funnel clandestine mil- assembled group chanted: "Dos Santos, our friend. The itary assistance to Unita through neighboring Zaire is people are with you." now contracted to train government pilots. However, while dos Santos is often revered as a hero While the U.S. reserves full diplomatic relations with who delivered peace, the MPLA's reputation has been the long-time Marxist government until after the holding tainted by harsh accusations of corrupt and inefficient of democratic elections, dos Santos made his White practices of the Soviet-modelled state. House debut in September, espousing aims to transform New parties have about six more months to present the centralized state into a democracy fueled by a free cogent political platforms in a bid to transform market economy. As a result of the president's unprece- widespread disenchantment with both Unita and the dented U.S. visit, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spon- MPLA into a competitive race which now largely remains sored a delegation of roughly 20 businessmen to the oil- a two-party struggle. rich country in November. But Angolans refuse to wait for a new government The fourth largest diamond and coffee producer at before they begin to rebuild their lives. Peace has had independence, a stable Angola represents a wealth of profound effects on families separated in the rush to safe- mineral and agricultural potential to avid investors, eager ty from rural attacks, and now reunited in emotional to profit from the reconstruction of the devastated coun- scenes repeated throughout the sparsely populated coun- try. Many Portuguese businesses are answering the try. Tens of thousands of the approximately 1.2 million Angolan government's pleas in the Portuguese press to Angolans who fled their homes for refuge in remote return in their former tropical home. And almost daily areas of the vast country or crossed borders in search of personal and business aircrafts jet in from the regional sanctuary have returned to tend their rural fields. Vil- superpower and long-time Unita ally, South Africa, to lagers are no longer forced to flee their huts at nightfall scout out possibilities. and sleep in urban centers or the bush to avoid rebel Sapped of skilled workers, largely by the mass flight at attacks ravaging the countryside and forcing the one- independence of about 300,000 Portuguese, or 90 per- time food exporter to rely on imports to sustain its popu- cent of the community, the war-impoverished country is lation. largely dependent on foreign investment to finance its A liberating energy has also pervaded the capital rehabilitation. As the two former warring factions have where many homes sport fresh paint and long-overdue converged around peace, Unita and the government are repairs. New restaurants, bookstores, and shops, includ- also both rallying around the call for a market economy, ing video rentals and a self-service laundry, line the heralding price liberalization and privatization in a bid to streets and waterfront, while older establishments have meet the demands of foreign capital. restocked their shelves. Inside the country, as battlefield rivals prepare to fight "On May 31,1 felt free for the first time," said a middle- it out at the ballot box with a flurry of emergent political aged man who works for the state telephone company. parties, the post-war capital has been quickly draped in "Before that, it was as if we were caged, but now the cage campaign banners. "Sixteen years of hunger, misery. is open and we are out." O

Africa Report 64 BY RUTH ANSAH AYISI

WAITING FOR THE

A dozen years after its birth, the Southern African Development Coordination Conference has achieved some of its goals, mainly in transport, energy, communications, and agricultural research. But regional economic integra- tion remains elusive, and the 10 member-states are waiting to see whether a post-apartheid South Africa will revitalize the union, or dominate it.

ost news about Africa focuses on hunger or underdevelopment, while little is said about its economic potential. Southern Africa has fertile soils and abundant miner- al resources, but three decades of war, destabilization, drought, and economic mismanagement have prevented most of its resources from being tapped. A spark of hope was struck for the region with the birth of the Southern African Development Coordina- tion Conference (SADCC), launched in 1980 to reduce dependence on apartheid South Africa and to promote equity, interdependence, and mutual benefit in the region. Money poured in from the donors, happy to find a way of indirectly making a stand against apartheid South Africa. Twelve years later, the 10 SADCC member- states—Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozam- bique, Namibia, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zim- babwe—and two South African lib- Simba Makoni, eration movements, the African executive secretary National Congress (ANC) and the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC), °^ held possibly the most critical Margaret A Novpcki i March/April 19 9 2 :MI January 30-31 in Mozambique's capital, Maputo. future member. The keynote document for the confer (Mice, SADCC: The keynote document at the conference warned the Toward Economic Integration, may hold the answer to organization's member- states, however, to take the initia- :he very survival of the organization. But a difficult road tive toward economic integration by creating a workable ies ahead. program and effective institutions before South Africa While in the past, SADCC has helped to hold the comes on board. How well the members manage to ;egion together and has scored some successes, notably achieve this will be decisive in determining whether it n agricultural research, energy, transport, and communi- will be South Africa that joins SADCC or SADCC that ;ations, it has failed in some of its key goals. "Perhaps joins South Africa, says the document. :he greatest failure of the organization has been its inabil- Some analysts believe that a democratic South Africa ty to mobilize the region's own resources for develop- would continue to dominate rather than integrate into the nent," said the document. SADCC's progress toward region. The fact that the South African economy educing economic dependence has been "modest" and accounts for about three-quarters of the region's total 'regional cooperation is yet to become a factor in the gross domestic product and has some 35 million people, strategies of member-states for national development." a third of its population, is a reality that will not change Intra-SADCC trade has been insignificant and has with the dismantling of apartheid. "ven gone down in the mid-1980s. In 1981, intra-SADCC Yet, the deputy president of the ANC, Walter Sisulu, a xade accounted for just 4.7 percent of the trade of the featured speaker at the conference, promised that a future nember-states. This fell to 3.8 percent in 1985, recover- democratic government "would renounce all hegemonic ng marginally to 4.7 percent in 198(i. ambitions associated with the white minority government, SADCCs performance to (late does not augur well for and would not seek any role as the self-appointed custodi- :he future, particularly now that the relatively strong an of the region's interests in external relations." ndustrialized countries, like those in Western Europe, He pointed out that integration into the region would ire flexing their muscles even more by organizing them- be in the interests of South Africa too. The South African selves into economic trading blocs. For example, this economy, he said, needs to shift from its present "exces- ^ear the world will witness the advantages of a common sive dependence on exports of mineral products and narket in Western Europe, and, in North and Central become a more significant exporter of manufactured \nieriea plans are under way to create a free trade area. goods," and "the countries of Africa will be potentially But the SADCC member-states appear not to be intim- important trade partners." dated, and took a radical step toward creating a similar Apart from trade advantages, Sisulu also said South )loc in southern Africa, looking forward to when South Africa had an obligation to cooperate with its neighbors Africa is its eleventh member. The challenge will be how "both in overcoming the imbalances which characterize :o continue to attract donor support for programs once the existing regional economy and redressing the conse- apartheid has been dismantled, and while Eastern quences of apartheid destabilization." Europe also makes huge demands for donor assistance. The estimated economic losses from South African The U.S. delegate at the conference, Ted Morse, head aggression cost the region $60 billion between 1980 and >f the regional office of the Agency for International 1988, according to a study by the UN Economic Commis- development (U.S.AID), warned that while the U.S. was sion for Africa. providing $430 million in aid to southern Africa this year, Sisulu, however, warned against SADCC forging links ilong with its contributions through such multilateral with South Africa before majority rule, and was cautious jodies as the World Bank and the African Development about how much the nation could contribute to the eco- 3ank, the justification for donor assistance to SADCC in nomic life of the sub-region initially because the task of he past had much to do with the struggle against redressing inequalities within its borders would be over- ipartheid. "What is the donor justification for continuing whelming. o support SADCC under a new mandate?" It is too early to predict how a future South African "It's hard to sell that [the $430 million] to the Ameri- government will cope with the pressures from SADCC can public in a recession without a firm understanding of and its own people. South Africa faces rising unemploy- vhy we should maintain that level of aid to the southern ment, a fall in gold prices, and a heavy national debt. \frican region," he said Plans for economic integration will indeed make big demands on member-states—especially on South Africa he other major problem for the long term is and to a lesser extent Zimbabwe—not to shoot ahead with how to relate to South Africa once it becomes a national plans, leaving the poorer neighbors out in the SADCC member. Although it was decided that cold. South Africa will only be allowed to join when a The first practical step toward integration would be Tdemocratic government is installed, plans for regional the adoption of a treaty formalizing SADCC, said Simba Makoni, SADCC's executive secretary. Such a treaty, Ruth Ansah Ayisi is a freelance journalist basrd in Maputo, Mozambique. which is expected to be signed at the next SADCC heads Ul Siaie SUlllllllL SUHCUUICU 1UI AUgUM in i>diiiiuid& Cdyi- iviuzduiuiquc lias uiic ui me ingiicisi imam inui iam

When the govern- ward democracy by ment of Equatorial international donor Guinea decided late nations and agen- last year to join Af- cies whose aid com- rica's democracy prises 70 percent of movement, it did so the country's econo- in a style typical of my, Obiang outlined the rule of President reforms that ensure Paul Laslimar Obiang—dissidents were rounded his government retains control, up and imprisoned. Nudged to- while dividing the opposition.

fter 23 years of dicta- torship, Equatorial LURCHING TOWARD Guinea, one of Afri- 's smallest and most isolated countries, has suddenly begun to totter closest allies were tried in Malabo's main cinema and exe- unsteadily toward democracy. If reforms announced by cuted by firing squad. Hopes that President Obiang would President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo were to be liberalize the regime were misplaced. Although political implemented, an embryonic multi-party democracy would killings became much rarer, arrests, imprisonment, and be in place in a year or two. But is President Obiang load- torture of political opponents remained commonplace. ing the dice to retain control? The capital, Malabo, on Bioko Island is extremely diffi- Equatorial Guinea is an obscure destination, frequently cult to visit, with only a few regular flights to the mainland confused with the other Guineas and only appreciated by and a visa at one of the handful of EG embassies costing those interested in venal dictators, tarantulas, the giant tur- S60 and a three-day wait. I arrived at a time of great politi- tle, and a sinister voodoo-like magic called Kong. From cal change in Equatorial Guinea. Since 1979, Obiang has 1968, when Spain granted independence, until 1979, Equa- often stated that Western democracy is not right for Africa. torial Guinea was subjected to one of the most brutal dicta- "Better unjust order than unjust disorder," he was fond of torships in Africa, comparable to Amin's or Bokassa's. saying. Under President Marias Nguema, one-third of the popula- But now, under increased international pressure, tion was killed or fled. But even this period was virtually Obiang has taken a series of sudden lurches toward multi- unreported by the international media. party democracy. The main steps have occurred since the During the late 1970s, Marias' rule became increasing- new year and have taken observers by surprise. The most ly unstable. In August 1979, Marias was overthrown in a remarkable came on January 18, when Obiang, in a blaze coup led by his nephew and military commander, Lt-Col. of publicity, dismissed his government "as a prelude to the Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo. Marias and five of his introduction of a multi-party system." He had just promul- gated a bill to allow the formation of new parties, when his Paul [jishmar is a reporter for the British television current affairs pro- own party has only been in existence for five years. gram, "World in Action."

Africa Report 68 Paul 1 astimar A few days before, Obiang had passed a general amnesty for all political crimes up to December 1991. He said this would allow political exiles to return. Most politi- cal opponents live in exile in Gabon, Madrid, or Paris. But Obiang's actions are not as benign as they at first might appear. Equatorial Guinea's economy is in a desperate state. Seventy percent of state finances come through aid, with Spain, France, and China the principal donors. The country relies on loans from the international aid agencies. In the last year, (he IMF and World Bank have brought unprecedented behind-the- scenes pressure on Obiang to stop human rights violations and move discernibly toward democracy. For political and eco- nomic reasons, the IMP' delayed the second stage of a president of Parliament who was major restructuring loan. arrested for demanding multi- The country is cov- Driving around the country, it is obvious that life for party elections. ered with tropical most Guineans is one of trudging poverty. They are a Also in November, a mandato- rainforest and the reserved and cautious people, polite but distant with for- ry referendum was held on a new main export is tim- eigners. "Everyone here over the age of 25 is traumatized. "liberalizing" constitution. The They have losl at least one brother, sister, parent, or rela- result was a remarkable 98 per- ber, exploited since tive under Macias," one senior diplomatic source in Mal- cent in favor. However, few of the the early 1900s abo told me. voters knew what the new consti- They are anxious not to upset the current regime. In tution contained, as it had been released only a day or so Basupo, a village 10 miles outside Malabo, I witnessed a before the referendum. In a pre-vote television speech, government official insisting that the local choir tackle a Obiang made it clear that he would frown on anyone who voted "no." Rumors abounded that dissenters would be prevented from travelling freely. A diplomatic source said that at the voting booths, it could be easily seen who cast a black vote for no rather than red for yes. One unpublicized DEMOCRACY clause of the new constitution exempts Obiang personally from prosecution for any crime "before, during, or after song praising Obiang with more gusto. Their faces his presidency." remained impassive, but their eyes burned with resent- Similarly, Obiang's general amnesty law, presented as a ment. magnanimous gesture toward his opponents, also covered They know that Obiang has not had a miraculous con- civil servants "accused of human rights violations"—in version to democracy and his motives are entirely prag- other words, an amnesty for Obiang and his torturers. matic and self-interested. He has realized that pluralism is Few of the leading political exiles trust Obiang sufficiently inevitable and that his country is not immune from the to return. Severo Moto Nsa, president of the most viable changes in the rest of Africa. He and his government aro opposition parly, the Progress Party of Equatorial Guinea, known to have been alarmed by the speed of transition to said in Madrid, "I am ready to return, but will not do so for full democracy in neighboring Sao Tome and Principe and the present for fear of being arrested." fear a loss of political control. Under the terms of the new bill, launching a new politi- Obiang's recent reforms have been skillfully stage-man- cal party involves overcoming some high hurdles. Mem- aged, but on closer examination, each reveals caveats bers must deposit 30 million CFA (over $150,000) in a designed to benefit Obiang and his political cronies. local bank. The money must not be raised "externally." Obiang firstannounce d that democracy was on the agenda This is no small order in a country where the average last year. But this was followed by several waves of arrests annual income is around $350. It has also been reported of those known or believed to support pluralism. "We that eligibility for election requires residency for the last regard arrest like having a cold, it is just a fact of life," said 10 years. Holders of foreign passports are ineligible. This one local dissident. Amnesty International reported that conveniently rules out most of the major opposition fig- dozens of individuals were arrested during such a purge in ures. Banned from political activity are members of the November. Amnesty has adopted as one of their prisoners armed forces, security services, judiciary, religious of conscience Antonio Ebang Mbele Abang, a former vice orders, and foreigners. No party can be formed on a

69 March/April 19 9 2 Paul Lashmar and elections to the national chamber in 1995. Obiang is nervous about his security. On the feast of the Immaculate Concep- tion, just before he arrived to attend mass at the neo-gothic cathedral a few hundred yards from the People's Palace, the sur- rounding streets were rapidly sealed off by the police. He arrived in a convoy sur- rounded by members of the Presidential Guard. These are Moroccan troops pro- vided by King Hassan, 150 of whom were sent after the 1979 coup and have slowly increased in number. Amnesty Interna- tional has received regular reports of Moroccans helping local forces with arrests and torture. A senior diplomat said, "President Obiang is not paranoid. He faces a real security threat and it regional, ethnic, or provin- comes from within the government and not outside." It is obvious that life cial basis. Shortly before going to press, reports emerged from for most Guineans is On January 24, President Libreville, Gabon that 30 Equatorial Guinean political exiles had suddenly been arrested and deported by the one of trudging Obiang swore in the 33 new members of the "transitional authorities. This appears to be a dramatic change in policy Poverty; they are a government" at a ceremony as the Gabonese government had previously been toler- reserved and cautious at the People's Palace. He ant, even sympathetic toward Obiang's opponents. people emphasized the need for the According to a February 4 communique issued in people of Equatorial Guinea Libreville by the Union for Democracy and Social Develop- to trust the new government team to facilitate a smooth ment (UDDS), an umbrella opposition group, and signed political transition. by its secretary-general, Antonio Sibacha Bucicheku, Certainly, some important posts were given to individu- these dissidents were "secretly transferred to Malabo and als close to the opposition, but no members of the opposi- assigned to several prisons, where they are being subject- tion were given posts. Despite their highly publicized dis- ed to atrocious torture by Moroccan soldiers." The com- missal, most of the former government were given new munique also says that there have been arrests in Malabo jobs in an expanded government (the dismissed govern- and Bata. The UDDS has "denounced and condemned" ment consisted of 19 posts), and Obiang's elite power these arrests. group, the Esangui clan from the town of Mongomo, has Nonetheless, all the evidence suggests that Obiang has strengthened its grip. decided that multi-party elections are inevitable and the One hardliner known to be critical of Obiang's reforms, best way to keep power is to appear to be the "father of the former deputy prime minister, Isadora Eyi Monsuy democracy" while carefully making sure that his Demo- Andeme, has been left out. The political significance of this cratic Party of Equatorial Guinea (PDGE) keeps control of move is not yet clear. Other hardliners have remained in the process. He is engaged in a difficult balancing the government: Alejandro Envoro Ovono remains minis- act—appeasing the foreigners who hold the purse strings ter of public works, Juan Olo Mba Nzeng at mines and while delaying democracy for as long as possible. hydrocarbons, and Antonio Nvc Ngu has become minis- Real political pressure has finally come from Spain and ter-spokesman for the government France, which have traditionally been the major aid Obiang's strategy has succeeded in throwing the divid- donors with large contingents of aid workers in the coun- ed opposition into further chaos. While many exiles try. There were, at last count, 144 aid projects in Equatori- remain outside the country, others are discreetly negotiat- al Guinea, and Spain is the main trading partner. Long- ing with Obiang to get a head start over their rivals. The standing rivalry between donor countries until recently most popular group to negotiate with the government is had weakened their resolve to force Obiang to stop human the Popular Alliance, whose leader, Carmel Mdo Aguse, is rights abuses and move toward democracy. But during a known as a sharp political operator. A controversial figure, recent visit to Equatorial Guinea, the Spanish president, he left Equatorial Guinea in a hurry in 1982 after he was Felipe Gonzalez, is believed to have expressed some charged with corruption. strong words on these issues. By last December, the IMF Obiang has not publicly stated his timetable for democ- was sufficiently happy with Obiang's reforms to release racy. One top aid official reported that the president said $7.66 million, the second stage of the restructuring loan. there might be multi-party elections at a local level in 1993 With one of the few embassies in the country, the Unit-

A f r i c Report 70 ed States has recently taken a much greater interest in tons a year. After the colonial plantation owners were per- Equatorial Guinea. Since 1988, the Peace Corps has been secuted and left during the Macias years, production very active and the American ambassador, John Ernest dropped to 5,000 tons per year. Although production is Bennett, has undertaken a number of philanthropic back up to 7,500 tons, conditions remain poor. endeavors. Equatorial Guineans place great importance The World Bank is encouraging a diversification of on education. Until late at night, students can be seen crops. The country is covered with tropical rainforest and around the streets of Malabo grouped under the few the main export is timber, which has been exploited since streetlights reading their notebooks. Bennett has opened the beginning of the century. Substantial logging is taking up the embassy at night to the students, providing seats, place both on Bioko Island and on the coastal areas of the tables, and drinking water in a well-lit, mosquito-free part mainland. At Luba, a port on the south of the island, hun- of the compound, and up to 100 students take advantage of dreds of trees are awaiting shipment. The companies the facility nightly. involved are Spanish, Israeli, Lebanese, and Italian, and The embassy has also found a small American company most of the wood reportedly ends up in the Mediterranean prepared to exploit the country's gas and petroleum basin countries. Although the government charges refor- reserves. Before Christmas, the night sky to the east of estation and road taxes, the roads are in poor condition Malabo was bathed in bright red light as flaring tests were and there is no evidence of sustainable timber schemes. carried out at a new gas separation plant. The gas is The other major earner of the economy is "re-exporta- brought on shore from the Alba field 18 miles to the north tion," accounting for 10 to 12 percent of GDP and involving of Malabo. Built and operated by the Houston-based Wal- the importation of alcohol, tobacco, and used clothing and ter International, the plant is expected to refine 2,000 bar- re-exportation to neighboring countries. rels a day of light petroleum, rising to 4,000 bpd by 1994. Equatorial Guinea's poverty is such that Obiang has not Petroleum is now a major factor in the Equatorial been able to take many funds out of the country. But he Guinean economy. It is expected to increase GDP by 15 and his family have financialinterest s in the country, own- percent alone in the first year according to the IME Fur- ing hotels, businesses, and buildings, and he is hence ther exploration is taking place on other concessions unlikely to go into exile. It is hard to believe, though, that including one by the French company, ELE real multi-party democracy will operate in this country in The economy has improved slightly since Equatorial the foreseeable future, and that when Obiang's seven-year Guinea joined the CFA franc zone in 1986. Until indepen- term of office ends in 1996, he will allow free and fair elec- dence, cocoa was the major crop with exports of 40,000 tions. O

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