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(REPORT The Economist BE PREPARED FOR A CHANGE Every business needs to have an idea of the future - especially in an environment as volatile as Africa's. Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit's special reports look forward, in text as well as tables, giving you the data, analyses and forecasts you need to assess the prospects of indivtdua countries or commodities for the years ahead. Each subject is covered by an SPECIAL REPORTS independent specialist supported by the ElU's enviable ON AFRICA network of international information sources. AUTHORITATIVE FORECASTS, RELIABLE INTELLIGENCE, COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS. • ZIMBABWE TO 1996 • NAMIBIA THROUGH THE 1990s At the Heart of a Growing Region Turning Rich Resources into Growth Southern Africa is undergoing great changes, with moves towards Since March 1990 Namibia has taken impressive strides towards peace and democracy offering challenges and opportunities. transforming its economy. This report looks at the country's economic Zimbabwe is well placed to benefit enormously from these changes r inheritance and its new political dispensation, as well as its future role its own redirection succeeds. This report analyses the prospects for in a changing region. Strong growth is forecast medium-term, high- export-led growth and stability in Zimbabwe, focusing on the relative lighted by the fisheries and manufacturing sectors. Despite uncert- depth and diversity of the economy and the challenges that will be ainties about the future of uranium, growth should be consolidated imposed by a changing South Africa. through the development of Namibian oil and gas potential. Special Report No M205. Special Report No M211. Published February 1992. Price £195/US$395 Published March 1992- Price £195/US$395 • COPPER TO 1995 a COTTON TO 1996 • TOBACCO TO 1995 Demand Overcomes Setbacks Pressing a Natural Advantage Consumption Moves South Assesses the net impact of the spread of fibre Assesses cotton's chance of consolidating in Analyses the structure of the tobacco industry optics on demand for copper, the political risk the 1990s the share of the fibre market it and its efforts to adapt to changing consumer to copper mining in the third world and its regained in the 1980s. requirements. Examines geographical shifts in competitiveness with aluminium. Special Report No 2145. consumption. Special Report No M701. Published September 1991. Special Report No 2091. Published December 1991. Price £175/US$365 Published June 1991. Price £175/US$365 Price £175/US$365 Prices quoted in pounds are for orders received from Europe, the Middle East or Africa. Prices in US dollars for Rest of World. All prices include postage. To order please tick boxes above and return Please attach your business card or fill in To order, please send to: whole form to the International Office nearest details below UK OFFICE, Bjsiness International Limited you. Subscriptions Department, P.O. Box 154, Dartford. Kent OA1 1QB, UK NAME Q Please proforma invoice me. (Copies will Tel: (+44 322) 289194. Fax: (+44 322) 223803 be sent on receipt of payment) POSITION For further information, please contact Janet Williams Tel: (+44 71) 493 6711, Fax: (+44 71) 499 9767 ^ I enclose payment of £/US$ COMPANY US OFFICE Business International Corporation, payable to Business International Limited 215 Park Avenue South, New York. NY 10003, USA ADDRESS. Tel: (+1 212] 460 0600. Fax: (+1 212)995 8837 Q Please charge £/US$ to my HONG KONG OFFICE Business International O American Express Asia/Pacific Limited, 10th Floor, Luk Kwok Centre, Account number 72 Gloucester Fioad, Wanchai, Hong Kong Tel: (+852) 529 0833, Fax: (+852) 865 1554 TEL X W X L A U I prefer not to receive promotional mailings from other companies Card Expiry Date BILLING ADDRESS IF DIFFERENT FROM ABOVE The Economist Signature Intelligence Unit Date MARCH-APRIL 1992 AMERICAS VOLUME 37, NUMBER 2 LEADING MAGAZINE cflFRICfl ON AFRICA A Publication of the WORT African-American Institute I Ipdate The African-American Institute Editor: Russell Geekie Algeria Chairman Democracy Derailed Maurice Tempelsman By Alfred Hermida President North Africa Vivian Lowery Derryck Rise of the Crescent 18 By Gary Abramson Publisher Ethiopia Frank E. Ferrari Living on the Edge 22 Editor-in-Chief Ethiopia's Transition By Peter Biles Margaret A. Novicki Page 22 Chad Production Editor Plus Ca Change 25 Joseph Margolis By Assane Diop Assistant Editor Pluralism Russell Geekie 'Hie Ixonomics of Democracy 28 By Anne Shepherd Contributing Editors Alana Lee 'Die Military Factor 31 Andrew Meldrum By Mark Huband Daphne Topouzis The Gambia Art Director Knding An Era 34 Kenneth Jay Ross By Peter da Costa Advertising Office The Army's Hole Burundi 212 949-5666, ext 728 Page 31 Unity At Last? 37 By Allison Boyer Intern Anastasia Venetos Zaire Pressure From Abroad 41 Africa Report (ISSN 0001-9836), a By Mark Huband non-profit magazine of African affairs, is published bimonthly and is sched- South Africa uled to appear at the beginning of Coming to a Compromise 45 each date period a! 833 United Nations Pfaza. New York. NY 10017. By Patrick Laurence Editorial correspondence and adver- tising inquiries should be addressed Ironing Out Inequities 49 to Africa Report, at the above ad- dress. Subscription inquiries should be By Anne Shepherd addressed to: Subscription Services, P.O. Box 3000, Dept. AR. Denville N.J. Zimbabwe 07834, Subscription rates: Individuals: USA $30, Canada $36, air rate over- Ending Ethnic Conflict? Uniting the Opposition? 52 seas $54. Institutions: USA $37. By Andrew Meldrum Canada $43, air rale overseas $61. Page 37 Second-class postage paid at New York, N.Y and at additional mailing Malawi offices. POSTMASTER: II this maga- In Banda's Image 57 zine is undeliverable, please send address changes lo Africa Report at By Heather Hill 833 UN Plaza, NY. NY 10017. Tele- phone (212) 949-5666. Copyright •'' Angola 1992 by The African-American Insti- tute, Inc. Brothers in Arms 60 By Vicki R. Finket Economies Wailing for the Giant 65 Photo Credit: By Ruth Ansah Ayisi The cover photograph of an Islamic Salvation Front support- Equatorial Guinea er at Friday prayers in Algiers Lurching Toward Democracy 68 One-Party Opponents was taken by Pascal Parrot for By Paul Laskmar Sygma. Page 52 To the Editor: regions, responsibility lies to a great received satisfaction" regarding their The article that appeared in the Jan- extent on some political parties like the rights: Dozens have been dismissed from uary-February 1992 issue of your maga- Liberal Parry, that share the views of the their jobs, including civil servants. Many zine by Nicola Jefferson, "Rwanda: The aggressors and recruit young Tutsi to others have not had their passports War Within," prompts me to draw your send to the front. returned. attention to some points that I feel need As the various tables show, the gov- Perhaps the most misleading state- to be clarified or rectified. ernment has never discriminated against ments tn Mr. Mukandoli's argument To us, this article appears more like the Tutsi where employment and school- relate to what he calls the "alleged mas- an indictment against the Rwandan ing are concerned. [Editor's note: Due to sacre of Bagogwe" and the incidents nation—that the writer mistakenly refers space constraints, we were unable to which occurred in Kibirira, Murambi, to as "the Hutu state"—rather than a print the tables and accompanying data. and Bugesera. On August 14, 1991, the deep analysis that can be useful to the Copies may be requested by mail.] Rwandan ambassador to Belgium admit- reader. The article takes up the bulk of Obviously for the moment, Rwanda lacks ted that "a massacre of Tutsi the accusations made by the Rwandan the means to face both educational and civilians...occurred in the [Bagogwe] Patriotic Front against the Rwandan gov- employment needs of the population. region." Africa Watch and local human ernment especially with regard to human Consequently, independent of ethnic con- rights organizations have documented rights, democracy, discrimination siderations, a great number of people deaths of Bagogwe which are not against the Tutsi. To the unbiased eye, are suffering. With regard to employ- attributable to rebel attacks. The minister however, the truth is entirely different. ment, public and private sectors put of justice ordered an investigation into All the prisoners taken during the together cannot satisfy the demand for the matter, but to date it has not resulted October war have been freed except 30 jobs. in any indictments. who had already been convicted. The Therefore, to all those who too quickly If there had been a "genuine readi- situation in prison is no different from accuse the country of practicing the poli- ness of the government to restore peace actual living conditions in most of the cy of exclusion, Rwanda sends an and order" in Kibirira, the government country. There is a genera! shortage of appeal for assistance to increase its would have prosecuted the two officials food and medicines; people die of star- capability to extend school facilities and it dismissed who were implicated in the vation and lack of medical attention. to develop new areas that generate new killings. It has not done so. Most of our prisons date back to the jobs. Africa Watch, as well as local human colonial era and are overcrowded. This Vianney Mukandoli rights organizations, documented the state of affairs cannot be attributed to a Charge d'Affaires encouragement of and participation in deliberate disregard of human rights by Embassy of Rwanda attacks against Tutsi and others in the government, but more to a scarcity of Washington, D.C. Murambi by local authorities. material and human resources needed to Nothing in the article is based upon ensure proper living conditions, a fair Nicola Jefferson replies: information disseminated by the RPF, the trial, and the right to a defense for the It is the unpleasant job of diplomats rebel group that invaded the country in prisoners.
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