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CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Browse Reports & Bookstore TERRORISM AND Make a charitable contribution HOMELAND SECURITY For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Corporation View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. The Effectiveness of China’s Industrial Policies in Commercial Aviation Manufacturing Keith Crane, Jill E. Luoto, Scott Warren Harold, David Yang, Samuel K. Berkowitz, Xiao Wang C O R P O R A T I O N This research was funded by philanthropic contributions to RAND. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark. Cover image: The testing platform for China’s C919 jumbo jet is pictured at the Shanghai Aircraft Design and Research Institute of COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China) in Shanghai, December 30, 2013. (Shanghai Daily - Imaginechina / Associated Press). © Copyright 2014 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface Since economic reforms began in 1978, China has enjoyed rapid growth in exports, which have contributed to the country’s impressive economic growth. Improvements in the quality of China’s workforce, manufacturing technologies, and materials have enabled the country to enter new, more technologically sophisticated industries. The Chinese government has denoted several such industries as strategic, and has employed industrial policies, formal and informal, to foster the development of “national champions.” As part of this strategy, the Chinese gov- ernment has attempted to induce the transfer of technologies from foreign manufacturers to Chinese companies. To the extent that these policies have been successful, they have acceler- ated shifts in production and employment from industries located in other countries to China. The purpose of this report is to use a case study of the emerging commercial aviation manufacturing industry in China to: • identify and evaluate the effectiveness of the policies and mechanisms the Chinese gov- ernment has used to create national champions in this industry • evaluate the effectiveness of the steps taken by foreign manufacturers to increase sales in the Chinese market while seeking to prevent transfers of key technologies to potential future Chinese competitors • provide policy options that allow foreign governments to effectively respond to Chinese industrial policies in the commercial aviation manufacturing industry • draw to the attention of Chinese policymakers the costs as well as the benefits of China’s industrial policies. The report should be of interest to policymakers and the public in China concerning the benefits and costs of using industrial policies to foster the growth of the commercial aviation manufacturing industry. It should also be of interest to policymakers and public audiences in North America, Japan, and Europe who are interested in the effects of China’s industrial poli- cies on international trade flows and the accompanying effects on shifts in employment and output from their high-technology industries to China. The report also provides options for policies to counter the effects of Chinese industrial policies on the output and employment in industries in other countries. This research was funded by philanthropic contributions to RAND. iii iv The Effectiveness of China’s Industrial Policies in Commercial Aviation Manufacturing The RAND Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program The research reported here was conducted in the RAND Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program, which addresses topics relating to environmental quality and regula- tion, water and energy resources and systems, climate, natural hazards and disasters, and eco- nomic development, both domestically and internationally. Program research is supported by government agencies, foundations, and the private sector. This program is part of RAND Justice, Infrastructure, and Environment, a division of the RAND Corporation dedicated to improving policy and decisionmaking in a wide range of policy domains, including civil and criminal justice, infrastructure protection and homeland security, transportation and energy policy, and environmental and natural resource policy. Questions or comments about this report should be sent to the project leader, Dr. Keith Crane, [email protected]). For more information about the Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program, see http://www.rand.org/energy or contact the director at [email protected]. Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures and Tables ............................................................................................. ix Summary ........................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgments ........................................................................................... xvii Abbreviations ................................................................................................. xix CHaptER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Purpose ............................................................................................................ 2 Approach and Organization of This Report .................................................................. 3 Assessing the Performance of China’s Commercial Aviation Industry .................................. 3 Identifying Chinese Government Policies .................................................................. 3 Determining Foreign Company Strategies ................................................................. 4 Assessing Shifts in Output in the Global Commercial Aviation Manufacturing Industry .......... 4 Evaluating the Relative Effectiveness of Chinese Policies and Foreign Manufacturers’ Strategies ... 4 Policy Implications for Foreign Governments and China’s Government ............................... 5 CHaptER TWO China’s Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing Industry ................................................ 7 Structure of China’s Commercial Aviation Manufacturing Industry ...................................... 7 Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) .......................................................... 7 Commercial Aircraft Company of China ..................................................................14 The Development of China’s Commercial Aviation Manufacturing Industry ...........................16 History .........................................................................................................16 Output and Employment ...................................................................................19 Technological Capabilities of China’s Commercial Aviation Manufacturing Industry .............19 CHaptER THREE China’s Industrial Policy and Its Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing Industry ............... 23 Chinese Government Policy Goals ........................................................................... 23 Chinese Policy Instruments ..................................................................................

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