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Pakistan Autos AKD RESEARCH March 31, 2021 PAKISTAN REP-019 AUTOS VISTA Change is most definitely in the air Local and foreign automakers have lined-up to avail benefits offered by ADP-II before it’s Ammar Javed expiry in Jun’21, having already attracted foreign investment of over $1bn till date. Simul- [email protected] taneously, all eyes are set on the next ADP that is expected to incentivize localization. 111-253-111 Ext: 602 The core affluence market for premium sedans faces competition from Hyundai Elantra and expected KIA Cerato as well as from compact SUVs including KIA Sportage, Hyundai Tuscon, DFSK Glory 580 Pro, Proton X70, MG ZS and MG HS (currently only CBU). The small segment, previously dominated by PSMC, has also witnessed competitive pres- sures, with variants offering wider options such as United Bravo, United Alpha, Prince Pearl and KIA Picanto. Despite growing competition, an ever strong dealer network entrenched across the coun- try as well as commanding presence especially in the rural market makes for a continued case for INDU where recent PkR appreciation and possible introduction of new Corolla by FY23 makes for further upsides. Given average monthly volumes of PSMC rising by ~2,000 units in last 2 months and ex- pected launch of new Swift, a short term upside in the stock cannot be ruled out. Price vs Displacement (Price) (Displacement CC) Source: AKD Research ADP-II – concluding on a high note: Anticipated pickup in competitive pressure kicked-off at the tail-end of 2020 and has continued well into the current year, where we have highlighted this spike in chatter fueling market expectations of additional auto OEMs (mostly of Chinese AKD Securities Limited AKD RESEARCH origin) lining up to avail tax and duty relaxations offered by the Automotive Development Policy 2016-2021 before it’s expiry in June 2021. To recall, ADP has attracted cumulative foreign invest- New Entrants following ADP 2016-21 ment of over $1bn. The influx of new players offering new models at competitive prices has transformed the automotive industry of Pakistan over the past couple of years which not long Local Player Foreign Partner KIA Motor Company Lucky Motors ago had very few and mainly Japanese options. The response of the big 3 players namely Indus (South Korea) Motors, Pak Suzuki and Honda Atlas that constitute almost 90% of the Passenger Cars (PC) & LCV Corporation Ltd Groupe PSA (France) segment, as well as incentives expected in the next AIDP expected this year, will be imperative in Hyundai Motor Company Hyundai Nishat and Sojitz Corporation determining future direction of the industry. Motor Pvt Ltd (Japan) Koreans kicked-off competitive forces: The latest round of competitive pressures in the domes- Changan Automobiles Master Motors Ltd tic auto landscape began with the return of South Korean auto giant KIA in partnership with (China) Morris Garage (MG) Lucky Group. Lucky Motors launched a compact SUV, KIA Sportage in July’19 and a family hatch- JW-ZES back, KIA Picanto in Aug’19. KIA Sportage continues to receive an overwhelming response from Motors (China) Regal Automobiles Dongfeng Sokon the local market, primarily because of it being priced in line with premium sedans, with average Industries Ltd (RAIL) (DFSK) China monthly sales of 1,500 units. This year, Lucky Motors entered the premium SUV segment previ- Ghandhara Industries Ltd Isuzu (Japan) ously dominated by Toyota Fortuner, by launching KIA Sorento. Overall, the company sold 2,500 cars in January, surpassing HCAR to become the third largest player in the industry. Going for- Al Haj Group Proton (Malaysia) ward, Lucky Motors plans to launch KIA Cerato in the sedan segment by June’21. A noteworthy Beijing Automotive Sazgar Engineering Industry Co (BAIC) (China) development is possible inroads to assemble Peugeot 2008. Hyundai, another South Korean Works Ltd Great Wall Motors Auto Manufacturer also returned to Pakistan in 2017 as Hyundai Nishat Motors Pvt. Ltd. setting (GWM) (China) up a manufacturing plant with annual production capacity of 15,000 units. The company entered Source: AKD Research the PC segment with launch of a compact SUV, Hyundai Tuscon in Aug’20 that sold over 500 units last month. This month the company announced launch of a premium segment sedan, Hyundai Elantra in 2.0L variant. The positive reception of these entrants is likely to make the core affluence market of premium sedans more competitive. The Chinese are coming: A Chinese automaker, Changan, also entered Pakistan in 2018 in part- nership with Master Motors Limited and introduced an entry level sedan, Changan Alsvin in Jan’21, which currently stands as the cheapest sedan in Pakistan. Master Motors has an annual production capacity of 30,000 PC. Sazgar, the only listed Auto-Rickshaw manufacturer in Paki- stan, partnered with Beijing Automotive Industry Company (BAIC) to introduce 3 BAIC cars namely an off-roader, BAIC BJ40 Plus, a compact crossover, BAIC Senova X25 and a hatchback, BAIC Senova D20 in Pakistan. The company’s assembly plant with an annual capacity of 24,000 cars is expected to become operational by the upcoming April. While United Motors continues to compete in the small segment with United Bravo and United Alpha, against the incumbent Pak Suzuki’s Alto, PSMC has announced plans to launch new Swift this year. Investment Perspective: While PSMC may continue to sustain healthy sales in the near term driven by lower interest rates, INDU remains our preferred play in the sector where trusted brand name, strong dealer network and popularity in the secondary market give it a competitive advantage. High historical gross margins confer INDU the power to keep prices low and stimulate demand through extensive advertising and promotion, thereby preventing newcomers from taking up its market share. Moreover, the recent PkR appreciation of 9% from bottom makes for a conducive environment for the sector. With the economy on revival mode, auto sales have witnessed an increase of 41%%YoY in last two months whereby the listed OEMs are likely to remain in the limelight. AKD SECURITIES LIMITED AKD RESEARCH Disclosure Section Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to transact in any securities or other financial instrument and is for the personal information of the recipient containing general information only. AKD Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as AKDS) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice nor does it provide individually tailored investment advice. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation/financial circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. AKDS recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and it encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. The securities or strategies dis- cussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, and certain investors may not be eligible to purchase or participate in some or all of them. Reports prepared by AKDS research personnel are based on public information. AKDS makes every effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by and may not reflect information known to professionals in other business areas of AKDS including investment banking personnel. AKDS has established information barriers between certain business groups maintaining complete independence of this research report. This report has been prepared independently of any issuer of securities mentioned herein and not in connection with any proposed offering of securities or as agent of any issuer of any securities. Neither AKDS, nor any of its affiliates or their research analysts have any authority whatsoever to make any representation or war- ranty on behalf of the issuer(s). AKDS Research Policy prohibits research personnel from disclosing a recommendation, investment rating, or investment thesis for review by an issuer prior to the publication of a research report containing such rating, recommendation or investment thesis. We have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, up to date, and complies with all prevailing Pakistani legislations. However, no liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions, or for any loss resulting from the use of the information provided as any data and research mate- rial provided ahead of an investment decision are for information purposes only. We shall not be liable for any errors in the provision of this information, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. We reserve the right to amend, alter, or withdraw any of the information contained in these pages at any time and without no- tice. No liability is accepted for such changes. Stock Ratings Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in each research report. In addition, research reports contain information carrying the analyst's view and investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating ascribed by the analyst. In any case, ratings or research should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy, sell or hold a stock should depend on individual circumstances and other considerations. AKDS uses a three tier rating system: i) Buy, ii) Neutral and iii) Sell with total returns (capital upside +dividend yield) benchmarked against the ex- pected one year forward floating (variable) risk free rate (10yr PIB) plus risk premium.
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