LOOKING FOR THE CAUSES OF THE INCREASING GAP IN INTRA-METROPOLITAN FERTILITY: THE SPANISH CASE

PUJADAS RÚBIES, Isabel Human Geography Department. Universitat de ; [email protected] BAYONA-i-CARRASCO, Jordi Human Geography Department. Universitat de Barcelona; [email protected] GIL-ALONSO, Fernando Human Geography Department. Universitat de Barcelona; [email protected] LÓPEZ VILLANUEVA, CRISTINA Sociological Theory, Philosophy of Law and Methodology of the Social Sciences Department, Universitat de Barcelona ; [email protected] LÓPEZ GAY, Antonio Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics; [email protected]

Paper for the IUSSP International Population Conference – Busan (Korea)

Paper’s aim At the end of the 1990s, had one of the world’s lowest fertilities as in 1998 its Total Fertility Rate was 1.15 children per woman. Then, in 2008, this indicator grew to 1.46, partly due to the large number of foreigner which arrived during that decade. However, the economic and financial crisis has led recent fertility figures to fall again. This paper analyses the causes of geographical fertility differences within metropolitan areas, by focusing on the metropolitan regions of Barcelona and . Our main hypothesis is that fertility differences would be based on two main elements: 1) the degree to which the suburbanization process has developed –which, in the Spanish case, has rapidly expanded and has been highly selective– and 2) foreign immigration’s impact. Results from the descriptive analysis show that despite regional fertility levels have become increasingly similar within Spain, there are increasingly strong fertility variations within Barcelona and Madrid metropolitan regions. While the core cities have low, late and more stable fertility levels, the suburban periphery municipalities have earlier and higher fertility levels. Factor analysis using Movimiento Natural de la Población (vital statistics) data allow us to investigate the causes of such differences. Theoretical framework Metropolitan areas have become increasingly diverse. This can be observed, among others, in demographic behavior, and particularly fertility. Despite spatial factors are specially important, notably within the urban context, in fertility decisions (type of neighborhood and distance to the centre, dominant housing characteristics in that area, including size, quality, and mean prices, available public transport, communications…) as well as in residential moves related to family size increase, the issue has received little attention from population geography literature (Boyle, 2003). In Europe only Kulu and Boyle (2009) and Kulu et al. (2007 and 2009) have undertaken this perspective as they compare metropolitan fertility levels within Nordic countries and how they change trough time. Their results indicate that suburban fertility is higher and core cities have older age motherhood. Moreover, differences would persist when the sociodemographic characteristics of the mothers are controlled for. These results would be explained by couple’s selective migration towards suburban areas and periphery residents’ higher fertility levels. Focusing now on Spain, Pozo and Rodríguez (2002 and 2003) for the Comunidad de Madrid, and Pujadas and López (2005) for the Barcelona Metropolitan Region (BMR) would be the main contributions to the subject. Their results all indicate that these metropolitan areas have significant internal intensity and timing differences, which show that, during the analyzed period, core cities had lower fertility rates and later in life than peripheries. Now, our aim is passing from a merely descriptive explanation to a cause analysis. Urban area definition and data used The Barcelona Metropolitan Region (BMR) has 5.12 million inhabitants. Its core city, Barcelona, has 1.6 million residents. It additionally has a complex polycentric network of 164 municipalities and six actually have more than 100.000 inhabitants. The Madrid Metropolitan Region (MMR) has 6.46 million inhabitants, 3.27 millions living in the core city. In total, it has 179 municipalities. Data series used in this paper come from the Catalan and Spanish Statistical Institutes (Idescat and INE, respectively). In the numerator we use births by age of the mother and by her place of residence. In the denominator, intercensus population estimates made by Idescat for each territorial unit are employed. Movimiento Natural de la Población (vital statistics) micro-data on births are used for factor analysis. Preliminary and descriptive findings We have currently finished our descriptive analysis for the Barcelona Metropolitan Region. The preliminary results show that, in the second half of the 1990s metropolitan fertility, as a whole, recovers. However, fertility levels within the metropolitan area are increasingly diverse, particularly between core and periphery. While suburban municipalities show increasingly high fertility levels, Barcelona city ones do not follow this trend. During this last 25 years, this city shows stable fertility levels (around 1.2 children per woman) and is not involved in the recent rise, therefore gradually becoming the territorial unit which has the lower fertility figures within the whole BMR (figures 1 and 2). Figure 1. Minimum and maximum total fertility rates (TFR) in BMR municipalities in comparison to Barcelona (left.) and the BMR mean (right), 1986-2010 2.00 2.00

1.80 1.80

1.60 1.60

Max 1.40 Max 1.40 MIN MIN MED 1.20 1.20 BCN

1.00 1.00

0.80 0.80

Source: Moviment Natural de la Població (vital statistics) and population estimates (Idescat). On their hand, inner ring municipalities like or l’Hospitalet de Llobregat, which form a continuous urban area with the capital, have rapidly undergone a significant transformation. Though they had had the lowest BMR fertility levels, their present figures are above the mean (figure 2). Despite they are losing Spanish population which is moving even further out, they are gaining large amounts of mainly young foreign immigrants who move there to start or continue increasing their families (Bayona and Gil-Alonso, 2012). These municipalities are well connected by public transport to the core city and offer abundant low to middle quality cheaper housing. Figure 2. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the BMR largest municipalities, 1986-2010

1.90 Badalona 1.80 1.70 Barcelona 1.60 1.50 l'Hospitalet de 1.40 Llobregat

1.30 Mataro 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 Santa Coloma de Gramenet 0.80

Source: Moviment Natural de la Població (vital statistics) and population estimates (Idescat). Figure 3. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the BMR, 1986-2010 1986 1996

1996 2010

Source: Moviment Natural de la Població (vital statistics) and population estimates (Idescat). Finally, towns situated furthest away from the centre (outer ring municipalities) had, at least until the outburst of the present economic crisis, high and increasing fertility levels, well above the BMR mean (figure 3). These municipalities would be receiving the highest amount of residential migrants (mainly young Spanish families, although the amount of foreigners involved in this type of moves is presently increasing) coming from Barcelona and its neighbouring municipalities. Several ideas can be extracted from the analysis. Firstly, a positive migratory growth due to internal mobility is correlated with higher fertility. This is due to flows mainly being formed by young couples, that is to say, to the fact that internal migration is a selective process. Secondly, in contrast with what our hypothesis claimed, high fertility levels and high percentages of foreign immigrant inflows do not seem to be directly connected. At least in the city of Barcelona, this is particularly so. The years when it received the highest amounts of foreigners, it became one of the municipalities which had the highest foreigner proportions, though its fertility levels were not among the highest of the BMR. By contrast, immigration does has had a direct influence on inner ring municipality fertility levels –see, for instance, l’Hospitalet de Llobregat and Santa Coloma de Gramenet, figure 4, where young women’s high fertility rates in 2009 (compared to 2001) are mainly due to large foreign women shares. Foreigners as well as Spanish people do not seem to consider the core city as the most adequate place to bring up children. At the same time, fertility intensity differences between the two latter cities are related to the dominant nationalities in them. While l’Hospitalet has more Latinos, Santa Coloma has more Africans and Asians, with a higher and younger fertility. Figure 4. Age-specific fertility rates by municipality (1986, 1995, 2001 and 2009) Barcelona L’Hospitalet de Llobregat 0.16 0.16 1986 1986 0.14 0.14 1995 1995 0.12 2001 0.12 2001 2009 0.10 0.10 2009

0.08 0.08

0.06 0.06

0.04 0.04

0.02 0.02

0.00 0.00 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Santa Coloma de Gramenet Terrassa 0.16 0.16 1986 1986 0.14 0.14 1995 1995 0.12 0.12 2001 2001 0.10 2009 0.10 2009 0.08 0.08

0.06 0.06

0.04 0.04

0.02 0.02

0.00 0.00 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Source: Moviment Natural de la Població (vital statistics) and population estimates (Idescat). As a preliminary conclusion, we would like to indicate that BMR fertility differences between municipalities are growing. This would confirm the fact that different areas within the metropolitan regions are increasingly specializing in a particular function – productive or residential. These settlement preferences are in turn dependent on nationality and the life cycle stage.