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Libya Weekly Operational Preview . Libya Weekly Operational Preview April 18, 2021 Prepared by: Risk Analysis Team, Libya © 2021 GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 1 © Table of Contents Outlook .................................................................................................. 3 Short Term Outlook .............................................................................................................................. 3 Medium to Long Term Outlook ............................................................................................................. 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................... 3 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 3 Military Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 4 Coronavirus .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Travel Developments ............................................................................................................................ 5 Oil & Gas .............................................................................................................................................. 5 International Security Developments .................................................................................................... 5 Threat Matrix .......................................................................................... 5 Key Dates .............................................................................................. 6 Assessment ........................................................................................... 6 Political Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Security Developments ......................................................................................................................... 6 Regional Assessment ............................................................................ 7 Tripolitania Region ................................................................................................................................ 7 Cyrenaica Region ................................................................................................................................. 8 Fezzan Region ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Acronym List ........................................................................................ 11 GardaWorld .......................................................................................... 12 Information Services ........................................................................................................................... 12 Global Leader in Comprehensive Security and Risk Management.................................................... 12 This is an abridged version of the GardaWorld Weekly Libya .Xplored report. To subscribe to our full report or to request a quote for security services in Libya please contact Nicholas Bennett, Regional Director, Libya. GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 2 © Outlook Short Term Outlook ▪ The political landscape in Libya continues to evolve at a pace. The new Presidential Council (PC) is driving forward, keen to realign international stakeholders and promote domestic reconciliation and reconstruction. The formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) is another major milestone in the country’s progress back to stability, but both the GNU and PC face a number of challenges in the coming months as the country prepares to move to elections in December. ▪ While the political environment is seeing significant movement, the military situation remains stagnant. The Sirte to Jufra frontline remains in situ, as do foreign fighters. The situation is calm, although there remains the potential for isolated incidents in response to political developments. The 5+5 Joint Military Commission continues its work, but it is unclear how much progress can be expected this year with the GNU restricted in how much it can meaningfully shape the security track. ▪ COVID-19 continues to affect Libya and travel in and out through Turkey and Tunisia although, at present, PCR testing is helping to keep travel corridors open. The country is expected to begin its delayed vaccination program and despite localized lockdowns and curfews, coronavirus continues to have little effect on normal daily life. ▪ Crime (including carjacking's, armed robberies, murders, and kidnappings) remains common in many areas of the country with perpetrators exploiting local gaps in security to carry out attacks. Crime reporting remains high across all regions. Medium to Long Term Outlook ▪ The successful implementation of the new PC and GNU are notable achievements, putting Libya back on a path to unity, but many threats to this progress remain. In many respects, the GNU is being seen as a relatively weak body, but this could work in Libya’s favour, leaving the prime minister room to continue driving the process forward as he builds a broad support base across the various factions. The country is gearing up for elections in December 2021, an ambitious timeframe that will need various foundations to be laid in the months ahead by the new government. ▪ Islamic State continues to suffer attrition in Libya and remains mostly dormant from an operational perspective. However, political fragility will continue to present conditions in which the group could begin to reconstitute some of its capability, and it retains a presence in the country. Increasing political unity could prove a motivating factor for the group to try and destabilise Libya as it moves towards scheduled elections in December. Other terrorist factions also remain active with some representing a kidnap threat, especially in more remote areas, while some have exploited the last conflict with the LNA to embed themselves within security forces in Tripoli. Executive Summary Political Developments ▪ Prime Minister (GNU) Abdulhamid Dbeibah conducted two significant official visits this week. On April 12, he travelled to Ankara along with a delegation of 15, where he was met by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Three days later, he travelled to Moscow with a smaller delegation for meetings with the foreign minister, defence minister, and prime minister. ▪ Greek – Libya relations have continued to progress this week. President of the PC and previous ambassador to Athens, Mohammed Menfi, made his first trip back to the country after he was expelled over the Turkish maritime deal. The Greek Foreign Minister, Nikos Dendias, has also maintained his intensified level of engagement with Libya with a visit to Libyan Deputy Prime Minister, Hussein Ateya in Benghazi and Speaker of the HoR, Aquila Saleh in Qubbah. GardaWorld Proprietary GardaWorld 1 202 3 © ▪ The HoR called for a session to be held at its Tobruk headquarters on April 19 to discuss the draft 2021 budget law. The Planning, Finance, and Budget Committee is expected to submit its report on the draft budget law before the session. ▪ The HoR is moving towards reunification after the First Deputy of the HoR in Tobruk, Fawzi Al- Nuwairi, officially took over the HoR HQ in Tripoli after a handover with the Speaker of the HoR Tripoli, Hammouda Siyala. ▪ Four members of the CBL Board of Directors issued a letter describing the recent decision by the chairman of the CBL to form a new management committee led by Mohamed Ali al-Darrat, from the National Front Party, for the Libyan Foreign Bank as illegal. The development threatens a new rift within the bank as unification efforts are underway. ▪ The UN unanimously passed a resolution on April 16 calling for all foreign forces and mercenaries to leave Libya and has green-lighted a UN team to monitor the October ceasefire. In a second vote, measures relating to the illicit export of petroleum were also renewed to July 30, 2022. Military Developments ▪ Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the LNA, met with a tribal delegation from Zintan in Benghazi. The delegation reiterated its full support for the LNA’s “war on terror”. ▪ The Volcano of Rage Operations Room undertook military training by Turkish forces this week. The training comes “within the framework of the military cooperation agreement concluded between the two countries,” after the deal signed by the GNA. ▪ “Leaked documents” allegedly show that there are 11,609 Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries currently in Libya after Turkey withdrew only 1,226. Another unconfirmed report claims that Ankara is looking to drawdown further after Ramadan. Security Developments ▪ The head of the Zawiyah coastguard, Abd al-Rahman Milad (aka Bija), was released from MoI custody on April 11 and acquitted of all charges relating to smuggling and human trafficking. ▪ SDF and its associate unit 444 Combat Brigade are increasingly policing other armed groups in the capital. SDF has carried out a series of arrests of armed group members, responded to an armed attempt to resist a change in leadership at
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