PAPER F CABINET - 8 th SEPTEMBER 2009

LEICESTER TO BURTON RAILWAY LINE Ivanhoe Line Stage II: Scheme Re-Appraisal

COMMENTS FROM MAX HUNT CC ON BEHALF OF THE LABOUR GROUP

Our greatest concern with this report is that it seems to have ignored the new report “Connecting Communities” from the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC), possibly because the work overlapped. That Report identified the to Burton/National Forest Rail Line (NFL) as one of 14 disused rail lines where there is a positive business case for a new passenger service. Two conflicting studies ATOC vs LCC Whilst both reports agreed on capital costs, the ATOC report, published in June of this year, took account of planned growth in the County in terms of population, housing and industrial output. Their conclusion was that the key economic indicator for the NFL, known as the benefits to costs ratio ( BCR), was 1.3. This means, of course, that one gets more back than one puts in and contrasts markedly with an older report prepared by the County Council which was initially drafted in July 2008 which claimed the BCR was only 1 (15.4) Both cannot be right, but the Train Operator’s report is more up to date. It may also be argued that they know more about the economics of running a railway that County Councillors! However the case is further strengthened if one uses the formula based on Operating Costs (OPEX). ATOC also state that it is now more common to use a formulae based on operating costs only (OPEX), citing recent decisions to reopen the Ebbw Vale and Scottish Borders lines. Under this formulae the BCR is a respectable 2.9, and well above the threshold of 1.5 required by the Department for Transport. It should also be remembered that the NFL is already operating for freight. In short, the County Council requires clarity on the methodologies used for calculating revenue by ATOC and Scott Wilson respectively. Demand Estimates Demand appears to be derived from a model produced from travel figures in Central Scotland in 2003 (10.1.1). The model is given a statistical significance (t and R squared) which can only possibly relate to the Scottish data and cannot secure reliable results for the Leicester – Burton situation, nor for conditions in the next decade where public transport concessions have become the norm and both congestion and climate change have forced travellers to change modes.

Demand from leisure visits (10.5) seem understated, highlighting the attractions of Conkers and Ashby Castle whilst giving little consideration to the Leicester city and even Burton-on-Trent offer and connections on. Wider Economic Benefits and Carbon Savings The Wider Economic and Carbon saving benefits are given insufficient emphasis in the report. In contrast the ATOC Report point out that re-opening the NFL would have wider economic benefits because it would create a badly needed East-West train link for the ; and that these wider economic benefits should be taken in to account. As Cabinet will know, our Regional Strategy gives a much greater emphasis on the battle against climate change. Significantly the East Midlands Regional Assembly have proposed the Derbyshire section of the line be re-evaluated ignoring Leicestershire. (source is the RSS). Community Rail Services They also stated that the NFL should be re-evaluated as a 'Community Railway', in view of the additional economic and social benefits it would bring, for example by enabling people in Coalville and Moira to gain access to employment opportunities in neighbouring cities. Community railway schemes have a lower threshold to meet for funding. http://www.networkrail.co.uk/aspx/983.aspx Phased introduction and future planned development Whilst the report is very thorough in some respects, many campaigners for NFL will want to know why a staged approach to capital investment could be considered by deferring work on the Leicester loop. This reduces capital costs quite dramatically. The NFL could initially terminate at Meynell's Gorse and co- ordinate with the Silver Shuttle Park & Ride in to the city centre. It is a pity not cost benefit analysis is presented for this. Closing down chances in the future The closure of the NFL Ivanhoe II option by LCC at this stage would have a significant effect on future planning decisions. In transport terms this may be high undesirable in the medium term. Already the absence of this essential rail transport corridor is determining decisions to turn development towards other areas which do not have potential for rail access. This will only reduce the commercial case for reopening the line for passengers. Note: Regional Spatial Strategy: 4.2.26 4.2.26 In the non-PUA parts of Amber Valley and Swadlincote, the proposed provision may create a need for modest urban extensions in some or all of the five towns highlighted, subject to the amount of additional brownfield land that can be brought forward. In South Derbyshire consideration should be given to the functional relationship between and Swadlincote. This may involve the preparation of a joint study by the respective regional partners to investigate the development potential identified on each side of the regional boundary, including transport improvements such as the A38/A511 corridor and the National Forest rail line. Co-operative working on core strategies in South Derbyshire and East Staffordshire would be appropriate in view of the role being considered for Burton upon Trent through the West Midlands RSS revision and the status of the town as a New Growth Point.”