Aharon Klieman Editor Great Powers and Geopolitics International A Airs in a Rebalancing World Global Power Shift
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Global Power Shift Aharon Klieman Editor Great Powers and Geopolitics International A airs in a Rebalancing World Global Power Shift Comparative Analysis and Perspectives Series Editor: Xuewu Gu Center for Global Studies, University of Bonn, Germany Managing Editor: Enrico Fels Center for Global Studies, University of Bonn, Germany International Advisory Board: Luis Fernandes, Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil G. John Ikenberry, Princeton University, USA Canrong Jin, Renmin University of Beijing, China Srikanth Kondapalli, Jawaharlal Nehru University, India Dingli Shen, Fudan University, China Kazuhiko Togo, Kyoto Sanyo University, Japan Roberto Zoboli, Catholic University of Milan, Italy Ample empirical evidence points to recent power shifts in multiple areas of international relations taking place between industrialized countries and emerging powers, and between states and non-state actors. Yet there is a dearth of theoretical interpretation and synthesis of these findings, and a growing need for coherent approaches to understand and measure the transformation. This edited series aims to bring together scholars from all major world regions as well as different disciplines in order to discuss and possibly blend their different approaches and provide new frameworks for the understanding of global affairs and the governance of global power shifts. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10201 Aharon Klieman Editor Great Powers and Geopolitics International Affairs in a Rebalancing World Editor Aharon Klieman Tel-Aviv University, Department of Political Science Ramat-Aviv Israel ISSN 2198-7343 ISSN 2198-7351 (electronic) Global Power Shift ISBN 978-3-319-16288-1 ISBN 978-3-319-16289-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-16289-8 Library of Congress Control Number: 2015937358 Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) Preface The malcontents of this world—the militants, the jihadists, the marginalized, and the anti-status quo revisionists—are once again on the march. From the Crimea across the Middle East’s Arab heartland, and from Libya to Nigeria and Somalia through the interior and Horn of Africa all the way eastward to the South China Seas, global power is shifting in ways that are at once dramatic and disquieting, made the more so for having been largely unanticipated. Thrust back on the defensive is an entire post-Cold War international order, including the very foundational principles upon which it rests. Only yesterday, in entering this second decade of the twenty-first century, two alternative futures vied for acceptance. The first predicted a “Great Convergence” of mankind, generated by unprecedented economic and technological globalization, whereas the second foresaw an emerging “G-Zero” leaderless yet admirably egalitarian planet Earth made possible by the incremental and essentially nonviolent reshuffling of geopolitical power, prestige, and influence. Political realities now suggest an altogether different paradigm. A fundamental reordering, to be sure, but more revolutionary than evolutionary; more savage than civil; and spearheaded not so much by the acknowledged great powers as by leaders of defiant weaker states, pivotal regional countries, and aggressive non-state actors; and, most disconcerting, by fanatical religious movements unbound by any accepted international rules, Western norms, legal standards, or social conventions. How far and how fast have we retreated from those earlier confident reassurances of a “democratic peace”, or of a “long peace” under the aegis of a benevolent “Pax Americana.” When a civilian Malaysian airliner can be shot down with impunity, and when peacekeepers functioning in southern Syria under a United Nations flag and mandate are fired upon and detained by al-Qaida affiliates, the evidence is all too patently and painfully clear that international society is under siege. Just as the international system itself and its stability and credibility are sorely tested should Russia’s creeping armed invasion of the Ukraine proceed unchecked. Unless these destabilizing assaults on the global order are promptly and effec- tively repulsed, then “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war.” Hence, even in the v vi Preface midst of rapidly unfolding events worldwide, students of international affairs must accept the twofold imperative of grappling with the more serious and most imme- diate threats, while recommending serviceable tools of the statesman’s trade for guaranteeing if not the ideal of a Kantian perpetual peace then at least a tolerable, functioning world order. Responding to the challenge, the scholars and specialists contributing to this collection of timely essays address head-on the current transformational moment in world history and politics. In doing so, they tackle their respective assignments guided by the following questions: • What constitute today the real sinews of national power? And what is the best mix of hard, soft, and smart power needed to cope with current as well as unanticipated future challenges? • Who are the resurgent and rising great powers? The prospective leading state and non-state actors? • Even in the throes of its own multiple crises at home, does the United States continue to be indispensable overseas? Can it be counted upon to lead from the front? • Are we able to identify both mechanisms and coalitions for constructing a new, more stable equilibrium, preferably short of all-out war? An equilibrium accu- rately reflecting the real distribution of power and influence worldwide, by first recognizing and then accommodating the ascendancy of pivotal leaders and countries in each of their respective regional subsystems. Using the notion of a dynamic, ongoing balancing of power process as a unifying theme, these essays serve to highlight those regional rivals and rivalries most critical for international stability. Surveying the scene in mid-summer 2014, one astute observer was led to conclude, “It is all gray and it is all grim.1” All gray, yes! All grim, definitely not! Great Powers and Geopolitics represents a serious attempt at providing a durable compass—the concept and the process of rebalancing power—for weathering the current storm and in offering authoritative guidance through the perplexities of a world in flux. Through their individual case studies and collective effort, the editor and authors hope to satisfy the increasingly urgent need for understanding shared by policymakers and academics alike. As well as by students and citizens around the globe who share with us both a fascination with foreign affairs and a deepening concern at the state of the world. Ramat-Aviv, Israel Aharon Klieman 1 Leon Wieseltier, “Obama was wrong: The era of humanitarian intervention is not over,” New republic, 27 August 2014. Acknowledgments The origins of this book trace back to a 3-day academic workshop convened in Jerusalem in November 2013, which brought together 17 scholars from 9 countries representing a range of cultures, disciplines, and perspectives. Although neither the organizers nor the participants could possibly have anticipated what course world politics were about to take—where better than Jerusalem for cautioning against practicing the prophetic profession?—the single consideration bringing us together surely had to have been a shared sense that, quoting Bob Dylan, “the times they are a-changin’.” Already a year earlier the Conference Announcement and Initial Call for Papers invited would-be participants to consider as their working premise that international affairs were poised on the threshold of a new era––a new era marked by a major realignment in the hierarchy and distribution of both political power and global influence. Nor were indicators lacking of deep systemic change about to take place well before Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, before the Crimean and Ukrainian crises, before the Gaza Strip, and before the meteoric rise of the ad-Dawla Islamiyya (Islamic State) movement in a disorderly and possibly disintegrating Middle East. Even then, our sensors were picking up strong signals of a world-weary and wary America, increasingly exasperated by unappreciative friends and undisciplined foes, while from the other direction former