October 2019

Robert Dekle

Department of Economics University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089 (213)740-2134

Email: [email protected]

Fields of Interest:

Open-Economy Macroeconomics, International Trade and Finance, East Asian Growth and Development, Saving and Investment, Japan and China.

Courses Taught:

Ph.D.: Open Economy Macroeconomics/International Finance/International Trade. M.A.: International Trade and Finance. Undergraduate: Introductory and Intermediate Macroeconomics, International Finance, East Asian and Japanese Economies.

Education:

Yale University, Ph.D., Economics, 1988 University of California, Berkeley, A.B., Economics, 1981

Honors and Awards:

U.C. Berkeley Regents' Scholarship, 1979 Phi Beta Kappa, 1981 Yale University Fellowship, 1981 Japan Foundation Fellowship, 1985 (declined) Fulbright Fellowship to Japan, 1985

Positions:

Chairman, Department of Economics, University of Southern California, 2003-2006. Professor of Economics, University of Southern California, 2004-present. Associate Professor of Economics (with tenure), University of Southern California, 2000-2004. Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Southern California, Sept. 1998 to June 2000. Staff Economist, Japan, Korea, and Indonesia, Asia and Pacific Department, International Monetary Fund, Sept 1995-August 1998. Staff Economist, Division of International Finance, Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 1994-1995. Assistant Professor of Economics and International Relations, Boston University, 1988-1994. Post-Doctoral Fellow, Edwin O. Reischauer Institute, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 1987-1988.

Visiting Positions and Other Affiliations:

Visiting Scholar, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, May 2017. Visiting Scholar, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, January 2017. Visiting Scholar, Asian Development Bank Institute, Summer 2015. Consultant, Asian Development Bank, 2014-2015. Visiting Scholar, Institute of Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, 1990, 2011, and 2012. Visiting Fellow, CIRJE, Department of Economics, Tokyo University, Summers 2003, 2008, 2019. Visiting Professor, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2006-2007. Editor, Japan and the World Economy, 2005-present. Associate Editor, Economics Bulletin, 2003-2007. Fellow, Center for Japanese Business and Economy, Columbia Business School. Fellow, Center for Japan-U.S. Business and Economic Studies, Stern School of Business, NYU. Shimomura Fellow, The Japan Development Bank, Tokyo, Summer 1999. Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, University of Indonesia, Summer 1994. Consultant, U.S.-Japan Foundation, 1993. Consultant, East Asian Miracle Project, World Bank, 1992-1993. Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia, Summer 1993. Visiting Scholar, American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Summer, 1989. Visiting Scholar, Institute for Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Japanese Ministry of Finance, 1985-1986.

Book:

Understanding Japanese Saving: Does Population Aging Matter?, Routledge-Curzon Publishers, London, 2005.

Recent Working Papers:

“Dynamics of Trade and Heterogeneity in General Equilibrium,” (with Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and Hyeok Jeong), manuscript, March 2015.

“The Regional Spillover Effects of the Tohoku Earthquake,” (with Eunpyo Hong and Wei Xie), manuscript, April 2016

“Product Dynamics and Aggregate Shocks: Evidence from Japanese Product and Firm Level Data,” (with Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, Tsutomu Miyagawa, and Atsushi Kawakami), manuscript, revised August 2019 (under preparation for submission).

“Chinese Local Government Excess Yields, Monetary Policy, and Misallocation,” (with Andrew Tsang), manuscript, revised October 2019 (to be submitted).

“Robots and Industrial Labor: Evidence from Japan,” manuscript, September 2019 (under revision for publication Journal of the Japanese and International Economies).

Refereed Journal Publications:

“A Comment on Female Labor Supply, Housing Demand, and the Saving Rate in Japan,” European Economic Review, (33), 1989, p. 1023-1026.

“The Unimportance of Intergenerational Transfers in the Japanese Economy,” Japan and the World Economy, (2), 1989, p. 41-58.

“Saving, Bequests, and Housing Tenure of the Japanese Elderly,” Economics Letters, (29) 1989, p. 129-133.

“Equal Opportunity and the Quality and Quantity of Japanese Children,” Journal of Asian Economics, (1), 1990, p. 319-331.

“Do the Japanese Elderly Reduce Their Total Wealth? A New Look with Different Data,” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, (4), 1990, p. 309-317.

“Japan’s High Saving Rate Reaffirmed,” (with Lawrence Summers), Monetary and Economic Studies, (9), 1991, p. 63-78.

“Market Value Estimates of Japanese Saving and Comparisons with the U.S.: Can the Capital Gains to Land Be Included in ‘Saving’?” Japan and the World Economy, (6), 1994, p.27-44.

"Saving-Investment Associations and Capital Mobility: On the Evidence from Japanese Regional Data," Journal of International Economics, (41), 1996, p. 53-72.

“Financial Market Implications of the Japanese ‘Big Bang’ Reforms,” Journal of Asian Economics, (8), 1998, p. 237-249.

"The Yen and Japanese Manufacturing Employment." Journal of International Money and Finance, (17), 1998, p.785-801.

"Agglomeration and Land Rents: Evidence from the Prefectures" (with Jonathan Eaton). Journal of Urban Economics,(46), 1999, p. 200-214.

“The Stock Market, Fundamentals, Cash Flow, and Private Investment: Evidence from Japan,” (with Dale Henderson and Sebastian Thomas), Japan and the World Economy, (12), 2000, p. 295- 310.

"Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in the ASEAN Countries" (with Mahmood Pradhan). International Journal of Finance and Economics, (4), 1999, p.205-215.

”On the Development of Rotating Credit Associations in Japan”, (with Koichi Hamada). Economic Development and Cultural Change, (49), 2000, p.77-90.

”Demographic Destiny and the Japanese Saving-Investment Balance,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, (16), 2000, p. 77-90.

”Growth Accounting in the Classic Vintage Capital Model,” Economics Letters, (72), 2001, p. 263- 267.

"Do High Interest Rates Appreciate Exchange Rates During Crisis?: The Korean Evidence" (with Cheng Hsiao and Siyan Wang), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, (63), 2001, p. 165-202.

”The Real Effects of Capital Inflows on Emerging Markets”, (with Cheng Hsiao and Siyan Wang), Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, (4), 2001, p. 30-46.

”High Interest Rates and Exchange Rate Stabilization in Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand: An Empirical Investigation of the Traditional and Revisionist Views,” (with Cheng Hsiao and Siyan Wang). Review of International Economics, (10), 2002, p. 64-78.

”Industrial Concentration and Regional Growth: Evidence from the Prefectures,” Review of Economics and Statistics, (84), 2002, p. 310-315.

“The Japanese Banking Crisis and Economic Growth: Theoretical and Empirical Implications of Deposit Guarantees and Weak Financial Regulation,” (with Kenneth Kletzer), Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, (17), 2003, p. 305-335.

“An Empirical and Institutional Examination of Post-Crisis Capital Flows: The Thai Case,” (with Pongsak Hoontrakul) Research in International Business and Finance, (3), 2004, p. 291-303.

“Financing Consumption in an Aging Japan: The Role of Foreign Capital Inflows and Immigration,” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, (18), 2004, p.506-527.

“The Thai Currency Crisis: Financing Constraints, High Fixed Costs, and Corporate Governance,” (with Pongsak Hoontrakul and Cathy Karnchanasai), Asian Economic Papers, (4), 2005, p. 60-87.

”Exchange Rate Exposure and Foreign Market Competition: Evidence from Japanese Firms,” Journal of Business, (78), 2005, p. 281-300.

“Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Financing Constraints, Hedging, and Exports: Evidence from Firm Level Data,” (with Heajin Ryoo), Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions, and Money, 2007, (17), p. 437-451.

“Unbalanced Trade,” (with Jonathan Eaton and Sam Kortum), American Economic Review, 2007, (97), p. 351-355.

“Global Rebalancing and Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment,” (with Jonathan Eaton and Sam Kortum), IMF Staff Papers, 2008, (55), p. 511-540.

“Can International Productivity Differences Alone Explain the U.S. Current Account Deficits?,” (with Suparna Chakraborty), Review of International Economics, 2009, (17), p. 689-715.

“Global Imbalances, Productivity Differentials, and Financial Integration,” (with Suparna Chakraborty), IMF Staff Papers, 2009, (56), p. 655-682.

“Whither Chinese Growth? A Sectoral Growth Accounting Approach,” (with Guillaume Vandenbroucke), Review of Development Economics, 2010, (14), p. 487-498.

“A Quantitative Analysis of China’s Structural Transformation,” (with Guillaume Vandenbroucke), Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control, 2012 (36), p. 119-135.

“The Determinants and Long-Term Projections of Asian GDP and Trade,” (with Charles Horioka and Akiko Terada-Hagiwara), Japan and the World Economy, 2012 (24), p.1-5.

“International Policy Implications and Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis,” (with Joshua Aizenman and James Lothian), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012, 1971- 1975.

“The Real Exchange Rate and the Structural Transformations of China and the U.S.,” (with Murat Ungor), International Economic Journal, 2013, 303-319.

“Do Foreign Bank Affiliates Cut their Lending More than the Domestic Banks in a Financial Crisis?” (with Mihye Lee), Journal of International Money and Finance, February 2015.

“Japanese Monetary Policy and International Spillovers,” (with Koichi Hamada), Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2015

“Adjustment in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis—2008-09: New Global Order?,” (with Joshua Aizenman and Menzie Chinn), Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2015.

“The Recent Convergence of Financial Development in Asia,” (with Mahdavi Pundit), Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, June 2016.

“A Re-examination of the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle: Evidence from Heterogenous Firms,” (with Hyeok Jeong and Heajin Ryoo), Economic Record, July 2016.

“Japanese Monetary Policies and Spillovers to Asia: A Global VAR Approach,” Economic Analysis, 2017.

Articles and Comments in Edited Volumes/Series:

"The Relationship Between Defense Spending and Economic Performance in Japan," in John Makin and Donald Hellmann edited, Sharing World Leadership?, American Enterprise Institute, 1989.

"Comment on Jeffrey Frankel's 'Japanese Finance'," in Paul Krugman, edited, Trade with Japan: Has the Door Opened Wider?, University of Chicago Press, 1991.

"Defense Burden Sharing and the Japanese Macroeconomy," (with John Makin) in F. Gerard Adams edited, The Macroeconomic Dimensions of Arms Reduction, Westview Press, 1992.

"Japanese Defense Spending and Its Impact on Economic Growth," in Jeffrey Frankel and Miles Kahler edited, Regionalism and Rivalry: U.S.-Japan in Pacific Asia, University of Chicago Press, 1993.

"Saving, Investment and Capital Mobility: Lessons from Japanese Inter-regional Capital Flows," in Mitsuaki Okabe edited, The Structure of the Japanese Economy, Macmillan, 1994.

"Japan-U.S. Foreign Aid Giving in Southeast Asia" (with Albert Ma), Proceedings of the Second Kyushu University Symposium, 1994.

"Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in ASEAN Countries: Implications for Monetary Policy" (with Mahmood Pradhan). in John Hicklin, David Robinson, and Anoop Singh edited. Macroeconomic Issues Facing ASEAN Countries. International Monetary Fund. 1997.

"Interest Rate Stabilization of Exchange Rates and Contagion in the Asian Crisis Countries" (with Cheng Hsiao and Siyan Wang) in Reuven Glick, edited. Financial Crisis in Emerging Markets. Cambridge University Press, 2001.

”Fiscal Policy Issues in the United States,@ (with Jeff Nugent) in Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, edited. Fiscal Policy Issues in the Pacific Region. Japan Committee for Pacific Economic Outlook, 2001.

”Domestic Bank Regulation and Financial Crisis: Theory and Empirical Evidence from East Asia” (with Kenneth Kletzer) in Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey Frankel, edited. Prevention of Currency Crisis. University of Chicago Press, 2002.

”Comment on Kenneth West’s and Dongchul Cho’s ”Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in the Korean, Philippine, and the Thai Exchange Rate Crisis,” in Michael Dooley and Jeffrey Frankel, edited. Management of Currency Crisis. University of Chicago Press, 2002.

”Population Aging and Future Saving-Investment Balances of Korea and Japan,” in Takatoshi Ito and Noriyuki Takayama, edited. Aging and Capital Flows. Asian Development Bank Institute, 2002.

“The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population,” in Magnus Blomstrom, Jennifer Corbett, Fumio Hayashi, and Anil Kashyap, edited. Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan, University of Chicago Press, 2003.

“Japan’s Deteriorating Fiscal Situation,” CESIfo Forum, 4/2003.

“Pass-Through of Export Prices: Theory and Some Evidence from Asia,” (with Cathy Karchanasai), in Gordon de Brouwer and Masahiro Kawai, edited. Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia, Routledge, 2003.

“The United States,” (with Jeffrey Nugent) in Akira Kohsaka, edited, Fiscal Deficits in the Pacific Region, Routledge, 2004.

“The Impact of Aging on Saving and Investment Rates in Korea: Projections Using a Small Open Economy Model,” in Kyungsoo Choi, edited, Population Aging in Korea: Economic Impacts and Policy Issues, Seoul: Korea Development Institute.

“The Chinese Economy: Perspectives from the Japanese Manga,” in Harvard Asia Pacific Review, 2006, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

“Comments on ‘Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan,’”in Keimei Kaizuka and Anne O. Krueger, edited, Takling Japan’s Fiscal Policies, London: Palgrave-MacMillan, 2006.

“China’s Structural Transformation: A Quantitative Analysis,” (with Guillaume Vandenbroucke), Nanjing Business Review, (in Chinese), 2007.

“The United States,” (with Jeffrey Nugent) in Akira Kohsaka, edited, Infrastructure Development in the Pacific Region, Routledge, 2007.

“The Burdens of Global Rebalancing,” (with Jonathan Eaton and Sam Kortum), Vox EU, August, 2008.

“Banking Crisis,” in Kenneth Reinhert and Ramkishen Rajan, edited, Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, Princeton University Press, 2008.

“The Japan-U.S. Exchange Rate, Productivity, and the Competitiveness of Japanese Industries,” (with Kyoji Fukao) in Koichi Hamada, Anil Kayshap, and David Weinstein, edited, Japan’s Bubble, Deflation, and Long-term Stagnation, Cambridge: MIT Press, 2011.

“Remember Japan?” The Milken Institute Review, Spring, 2012.

“Japan: Land of the Setting Sun?” Twelve Country Studies, Legatum Institute, London, 11/2012.

“Sources of Income Inequality: A Comparison of U.S. and Japan,” (with Toshiaki Aizawa and Matthias Helble), Asian Development Bank Institute Working Paper, No. 663, February 2017.

Policy Papers:

“The Impact of Population Aging on the Countercyclical Fiscal Stance in Korea, with a Focus on Automatic Stabilizers,” (with Tae-Jong Kim and Mihye Lee), Bank of Korea Working Paper, July 2014.

“Real Exchange Rates in a Model of Structural Change: Applications to the Real Yen-Dollar and the Chinese RMB-Dollar Exchange Rates,” Bank of Japan IMES Discussion Paper Series, May 2013.

“Raising Saving Rates: Evidence from the Japanese Economy,” manuscript, World Bank, October 1993.

Book Reviews:

Japanese Industrial Performance, by Kimio Uno, (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1987), Journal of Economic Literature, 1989.

The Political Economy of Japan, by Kozo Yamamura and Yasukichi Yasuba, (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1988), Keizai Kenkyu, 1990.

The Japanese Economy, by Takatoshi Ito, (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1991), Economica, 1994.

Japanese Monetary Policy, Kenneth Singleton, edited, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993), Pacific Affairs, 1995.

Industrial Policy and Japanese Economic Development, by James Vestal, (London: Oxford University Press, 1993), Political Science Quarterly, 1995.

The Postwar Japanese Economic System, by William Tabb, (Oxford: Oxford University Press), Journal of Economic Literature, 1996.

Technology and Industrial Development in Japan,by Akira Goto and Hiroyuki Odagiri,(Oxford: Oxford University Press), Finance and Development,1997.

Understanding Saving: Evidence from the United States and Japan, by Fumio Hayashi,(Cambridge: MIT Press), Journal of Japanese Studies, 1998.

The Morning After in Japan: Its Declining Population, Too Generous Pensions, and a Weakened Economy, by Noriyuki Takayama (Tokyo: Maruzen Co.), Journal of Economic Literature, 2000.

Japan’s Financial Crisis and Its Parallels to the U.S. Experience, by Adam Posen (Eds.) (Washington, D.C.: Institute of International Economics), and Crisis and Change in the Japanese Financial System by Takeo Hoshi and Hugh Patrick (Eds.) (Amsterdam: Kluwer Academic Publishers), Journal of International Economics, 2002.

Economic History of Japan: 1914-1955, by Takafusa Nakamura and Konosuke Odaka (Eds.) (United Kingdom: Oxford University Press), Economic Development and Cultural Change, 2007.

Emergent Economies, Divergent Paths: Economic Organization and International Trade in South Korea and Taiwan, by Robert Feenstra and Gary Hamilton (United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press), Journal of International Economics, 2008.

Grants Held:

Asian Development Bank, Financial Reform in Asia, October 2014 to March 2015.

Center for Global Partnership Institutional Grant, July 2012-June 2014.

Tsai Family Research Fund on Taiwanese Studies, USC, Summer 2012.

Economic and Social Research Institute, Government of Japan (with Kyoji Fukao), October 2007- February 2009.

U.S.-China Institute, USC, September 2007-August 2008.

Haynes Foundation Faculty Fellowship, March 2006-February 2007.

Haynes Foundation Faculty Fellowship, March 2000-February 2001

University of Southern California, Southern California Studies Center Grant, January 2000-June 2000.

University of Southern California, CIBEAR Grant, July 1999-September 2000.

University of Southern California, Zumberge Grant, July 1999-June 2000.

Institutional Reform of the Informal Sector, University of Maryland, (with Koichi Hamada), June 1994-May 1995.

Japan-U.S. Friendship Commission (with Jonathan Eaton), July 1992-December 1993.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Japan (with Shojiro Tokunaga, Kyushu University), June 1992.

Ministry of Education, Government of Japan (with Shojiro Tokunaga, Kyushu University), April 1991-March 1992.

Reviewer and Referee:

Harvard, MIT, Oxford, Princeton and Cornell University Presses, Brookings Institution, Routledge, National Science Foundation, SHRHC, RGC-Hong Kong.

American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, International Economic Review, Journal of Business, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Empirical Finance, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, International Economics Journal, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Monetary Economics, Economic Journal, IMF Staff Papers, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of International Economics, Journal of International Finance and Economics, Economic Journal, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Japan and the World Economy, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Journal of Asian Economics, Contemporary Economic Policy, Multinational Finance Journal, China Economic Review, Economics Bulletin.

Selected Recent Seminar and Conference Presentations (Since 2008):

Academia Sinica, Asian Development Bank Institute, Bank of Japan, Chinese University of Hong Kong Conference on Reminbi and the Global Economy, Claremont Graduate University, Columbia Business School, CUNY-University Center, Delaware, Development Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta-- International Macroeconomics Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Fudan University, Gakushuiin University, GRIPS Tokyo, Harvard Korea Conference, IMF Annual Research Conference, Hitotsubashi University, Keio University, Kobe University, Korea Development Institute, Korea University, Kyoto University, NBER Japan Project, NBER Economics of Time and Space Conference, Osaka University, Santa Clara University International Macroeconomics Conference, SASIN-Chulalongkorn University Asia Conference, Seoul National University Department of Economics, Singapore National University ABFER Conference, Stanford SITE Firm Level Investigations in International Finance Conference, Tsinghua Workshop in Macroeconomics, NYU Stern, RIETI Tokyo, Tokyo University Macroeconomics Seminar, Tokyo University Conference on the Chinese Economy, UCLA, UC Davis, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, UC San Diego, UC Santa Cruz, University of San Francisco, USC Global Financial Crisis and Latin America Conference, University of Hawaii, UIBE-Beijing Conference on International Economics, University of Oslo, University of Washington, University of Wisconsin Conference on Global Imbalances, WIDER-Helsinki, Yale.

Selected Recent Policy and Keynote Speeches:

Superinvestor Alternative Investments Conference Keynote (San Francisco), Financial Times-Ignites- Aberdeen Beyond Economic Borders Panel (Los Angeles), Capital University Beijing Keynote (Beijing), CENTRA Technologies (San Francisco), Global Macro Hedge Fund (GAIM) Annual Conference (New York), Hawaii First Bank Annual Conference Keynote (Honolulu), Milken Institute Global Conference 2008 and 2011 (Beverly Hills), National Cheng Kung University Keynote (Tainan, Taiwan), PECC Social Insurance Keynote (Tokyo), USC Trustees Annual Retreat (Desert Springs), USC Marshall Center for Investment Studies Emerging Markets Panel.

Selected Recent Media Interviews:

Bloomberg Television, Financial Times, AOL Finance, Los Angeles Times, The Nikkei, The Yomiuri, CNTV, China, KHNL-NBC8, MSNBC, NHK-BS., KABC Marketplace, China International Radio, Beyond Beijing, People’s Daily, China.

Ph.D. Committee Chair and Member (First Placement):

Maria-Eleni Athanoasupoulou, member (IMF) Asiye Aydilek, member (Kuwait University) Burcu Aydin, chair (IMF) Yu Cao, member (ongoing) Jad Dagher, member (IMF) Eleonora Granziera, member (Bank of Canada) Cathy Karchanasai, chair (Bank of Thailand) Bahar Kartalciklar, chair, (Moody’s Analytics) Mihye Lee, chair (Bank of Korea) Hao-Chung Li, chair (National Chengchi University) Suriya Poolvoralaks, chair, (Major Development Thailand) Heajin Ryoo, chair, (La Trobe University) Shivendu Shivendu, member, (UC-Irvine Business) Qi Sun, member, (Shanghai Jiatong University) Murat Ungor, member, (Central Bank of Turkey) Engin Volkan, member, (Price Waterhouse) Shu-Ki Wan, member (Hong Kong Baptist University) Siyan Wang, member (University of Delaware) Wei Wu, co-chair (Hawaii Economic Development Office) Wei Xi, member (Amazon)

Selected University Committees (Since 2008):

Dornsife College Tenure and Promotion Committee Department Executive Committee Department Tenure and Promotion Committee Department Chairman Search Committee Department Senior and Junior Recruitment Committees Department Graduate Admissions and Placement Committees