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Unfinished Business: the Negotiation of the CTBT and the End of Nuclear

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Unfinished Business: the Negotiation of the CTBT and the End of Nuclear UNIDIR The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty remains a key piece of unfinished business of the nuclear age. As a growing number of governments and decision makers put forward ideas to move the world toward abolishing nuclear weapons, much can be learned from how the CTBT was fought for, opposed and finally negotiated between 1994 and 1996. The treaty’s necessity was underlined when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea conducted a nuclear test explosion in 2006, but more than a decade of political and institutional obstacles have prevented the CTBT from entering into full legal effect. New opportunities exist today for CTBT entry into force. Understanding the story of the treaty will enable civil society, governments and diplomats to assist in this process and to develop more effective strategies and tools to bring about future disarmament agreements. UNITED NATIONS INSTITUTE FOR DISARMAMENT RESEARCH Unfinished Business: The Negotiation of the CTBT UNITED NATIONS UNITED NATIONS and the End of Nuclear Testing Designed and printed by the Publishing Service, United Nations, Geneva GE.09-00299 — February 2009 — 4,000 — UNIDIR/2009/2 United Nations Publication Sales No. GV.E.09.0.4 ISBN 978-92-9045-194-5 Rebecca Johnson UNIDIR/2009/2 Unfi nished Business The Negotiation of the CTBT and the End of Nuclear Testing Rebecca Johnson UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research Geneva, Switzerland New York and Geneva, 2009 About the cover The cover shows the control room of the International Data Centre, part of the International Monitoring System of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test- Ban Treaty Organization. Photograph courtesy of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. * * * The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the individual authors. They do not necessarily refl ect the views or opinions of the United Nations, UNIDIR, its staff members or sponsors. UNIDIR/2009/2 Copyright © United Nations, 2009 All rights reserved UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATIONS Sales No. GV.E.09.0.4 ISBN 978-92-9045-194-5 The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)—an autonomous institute within the United Nations—conducts research on disarmament and security. UNIDIR is based in Geneva, Switzerland, the centre for bilateral and multilateral disarmament and non-proliferation negotiations, and home of the Conference on Disarmament. The Institute explores current issues pertaining to the variety of existing and future armaments, as well as global diplomacy and local tensions and confl icts. Working with researchers, diplomats, government offi cials, NGOs and other institutions since 1980, UNIDIR acts as a bridge between the research community and governments. UNIDIR’s activities are funded by contributions from governments and donor foundations. The Institute’s web site can be found at: www.unidir.org CONTENTS Acknowledgements ........................................................................ ix About the author ........................................................................... xi Foreword ...................................................................................... xiii Special comment ........................................................................... xvii Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2 Cold War attempts to ban nuclear explosions ................................ 9 1954–1963: Settling for the Partial Test Ban Treaty ................... 10 1964–1980: Non-proliferation and arms control, while testing continues ......................................................... 17 Détente, arms control and testing limits ............................ 20 Tripartite talks, 1977–1980 ............................................... 21 1981–1989: Public mobilizing against nuclear weapons ........... 23 Chapter 3 Putting the test ban back on the table ........................................... 31 Raising awareness of the need for a test ban ............................ 33 Public mobilization halts testing in Kazakhstan .................. 35 Direct action to make the test sites publicly visible ............ 36 The PTBT Amendment Conference .................................. 38 Russia, France and the United States suspend nuclear testing ... 40 The CD adopts a negotiating mandate ..................................... 46 Negotiating tactics ............................................................ 50 Chapter 4 The struggle for a zero-yield test ban ............................................. 57 1994: Starting positions and stalling tactics ............................... 58 The politics of timing ........................................................ 63 1995: Breakthrough on zero yield ........................................... 68 Winning the argument for a permanently established CTBT ........................................................... 70 v vi France and the United Kingdom withdraw the safety test proposal .................................................. 72 CTBT issues in the 1995 NPT Conference ......................... 73 NPT aftermath: more nuclear tests from China and France .......................................................... 76 The United States and France commit to a zero-yield scope ..................................................... 82 Chapter 5 Making the treaty ban civilian as well as military nuclear explosions ............................................................ 93 1996: end of an era ................................................................. 95 Finding a PNE compromise ............................................... 97 Competing draft treaties from Iran and Australia ............... 103 Chair’s fi rst draft text ........................................................ 104 Chapter 6 Entry into force and the endgame ................................................. 109 Numbers, lists and waivers ....................................................... 112 The die is cast .......................................................................... 126 Chair’s revised treaty accepted with reservations ..................... 133 Bypassing India to bring the treaty to the UN General Assembly ............................................... 137 The United Nations overwhelmingly adopts the treaty text ...... 141 The CTBT is opened for signature ........................................... 142 Chapter 7 Designing a robust verifi cation regime ........................................... 145 The International Monitoring System ....................................... 148 The seismic signature ........................................................ 151 Detecting airborne radioactivity ........................................ 152 Hearing underwater explosions ........................................ 154 Picking up shockwaves ..................................................... 154 Satellites and electromagnetic pulse monitoring ................ 155 Interpreting IMS data ........................................................ 155 On-site inspections .................................................................. 157 Intrusion versus protection ................................................ 160 Transparency .................................................................... 162 Phased inspections, decision-making and access ............... 163 National technical means ................................................. 166 vii Make-or-break dilemmas .................................................. 169 Establishing the CTBTO .......................................................... 172 Chapter 8 Lessons for future multilateral security negotiations ....................... 175 Nuclear weapons, programmes and perceptions of national interest ................................................................ 177 Expanding the possibilities for reaching agreement ................... 184 Prenegotiations ................................................................. 189 Scope ............................................................................... 193 Entry into force ................................................................. 200 Verifi cation ....................................................................... 202 Lessons for future multilateral negotiations .............................. 204 Chapter 9 Securing the CTBT ........................................................................ 209 Field exercises in on-site inspections ........................................ 212 Civilian benefi ts of the CTBT ................................................... 215 Unfi nished business ................................................................ 216 Provisional application of the CTBT: only as a last resort ........................................................ 227 Conclusion ............................................................................. 231 Annex A CTBT Annex II states ..................................................................... 233 Annex B Membership of the working groups of the Nuclear Test Ban Committee
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