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AE April 2020 ROSPACE

END OF AN ERA FOR THE FIGHTER PILOT? IN 2020 KING AIRS TO THE RESCUE

www.aerosociety.com A pril 2020

V olume 47 Number 4

Royal A A BIOSHOCK TO AVIATION COVID-19: THE GLOBAL AEROSPACE INDUSTRY FACES ITS TOUGHEST CHALLENGE YET eronautical Society

APRIL 2020 AEROSPACE COVER FINAL.indd 1 23/03/2020 12:55 @ROYAL AIRFORCE

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�AIR&SPACE ��LEONARDO NORTHROP-, LOCKHEEDM� ER ASSOCIATION GRUMMAN I � BAE SYSTEMS Correspondence on all aerospace matters is welcome at: The Editor, AEROSPACE, No.4 Hamilton Place, London W1J 7BQ, UK [email protected]

Volume 47 Number 4 April 2020

EDITORIAL Contents A ock of ‘Black Swans’ Regulars 4 Radome 12 Transmission Just how resilient is global aerospace and aviation to external shocks and The latest aviation and Your letters, emails, tweets disruption? We may be about to fi nd out. So far it has coped with ‘Black aeronautical intelligence, and social media feedback. analysis and comment. Swan’ events of the 1991 Gulf War, 9/11, SARS, the 2008 fi nancial crisis 58 The Last Word and the Icelandic volcano. Each time, passenger growth dipped but then 11 Pushing the Envelope Keith Hayward considers quickly recovered as the insatiable demand for air travel returned even Rob Coppinger on how the the wider implications for 5G telecommunications the aerospace industry in stronger than before. Today, however, the engines that power the global revolution can benefi t the the wake of the Coronavirus aviation industry seem to have ingested several Black Swans at once leading aerospace industry. outbreak. to fears that the entire sector could stall. Aviation was already struggling with ’s 737 MAX crisis – which sees one half of the mega-duopoly in limbo Features

as its single-aisle line is grounded for over 12 months. Meanwhile concerns Korean Air over climate change and ‘fl ight shaming’ were gaining ground among consumers. Last month, came the news that the UK will leave EASA – something that had previously only been envisaged in ‘worst-case’ scenarios. 14 In normal times, each of these ‘Black Swans’ would be headline news but 32 all are now overshadowed by the biggest and most signifi cant Swan – the global Coronavirus pandemic, which has led to grounded fl eets, closed Bioshock to aviation – what next? The show must go on borders and passenger demand going off a cliff edge – in an unprecedented What is the impact on the A report from the 2020 crisis in aviation’s history. Flight schedules now look like something from the aerospace industry of the Singapore Air Show. 1960s and the of the jet age. That aviation will eventually come back is Coronavirus pandemic? not in question but in what form? Civil aviation is the lifeblood of the world’s 20 Breaking through the globalised economy, the sinews of commerce and a sector that has lifted HUD glass ceiling the horizons of millions of people around the world. If anything, this crisis is Does the Chief of an Air demonstrating that, however high-resolution a screen, or fast the bandwidth, Force necessarily need to be 36 a pilot? people crave face-to-face contact. 2Excel Aviation

36 Wings of change Tim Robinson, Editor-in-Chief 25 The RAeS Global [email protected] Megatrends conference looks at the longer-term future of aerospace. FireflAerospace y Editor-in-Chief Editorial Offi ce 2020 AEROSPACE subscription Tim Robinson Royal Aeronautical Society rates: Non-members, £180 King Airs to the rescue +44 (0)20 7670 4353 No.4 Hamilton Place Please send your order to: Two new customised King [email protected] London W1J 7BQ, UK Wayne J Davis, RAeS, No.4 Hamilton Air 200s have enhanced the 38 +44 (0)20 7670 4300 Deputy Editor Place, London W1J 7BQ, UK. UK Coastguard’s maritime [email protected] Bill Read +44 (0)20 7670 4354 mission capability. +44 (0)20 7670 4351 www.aerosociety.com [email protected] [email protected] AEROSPACE is published by the Royal Any member not requiring a print Space 2020 – a look Aeronautical Society (RAeS). version of this magazine should 28 Space debris Production Manager ahead contact: [email protected] Wayne J Davis Chief Executive Can we solve the Sir Brian Burridge CBE FRAeS USA: Periodical postage paid at environmental crisis of The RAeS Space Group +44 (0)20 7670 4354 previews the space missions [email protected] Advertising Champlain New York and additional space? offi ces. planned for this year. Publications Executive +44 (0)20 7670 4346 [email protected] Chris Male Postmaster: Send address changes to IMS of New York, PO Box 1518, +44 (0)20 7670 4352 Unless specifi cally attributed, no Champlain NY 12919-1518, USA. [email protected] material in AEROSPACE shall be taken Afterburner to represent the opinion of the RAeS. Publications Executive ISSN 2052-451X 42 Message from our President Annabel Hallam Reproduction of material used in this +44 (0)20 7670 4361 publication is not permitted without the 43 Message from our Chief Executive written consent of the Editor-in-Chief. [email protected] 44 Book Reviews Printed by Buxton Press Limited, Book Review Editor Library Additions Brian Riddle Palace Road, Buxton, Derbyshire 48 [email protected] SK17 6AE, UK 50 NAL Sound Archive Distributed by Royal Mail 52 Society news Additional content is available to view online at: www.aerosociety.com/aerospaceinsight 54 Obituary Including: New Member Spotlight – Shumit Das, NATO’s new capability acquisition programme, Can 55 Paris Branch the UK join the hypersonics race?, Covid 19 - a pandemic hits aviation, King Air 200s add mission 56 New Members Spotlight Online capability to UK Coast Guard, Should CAS be a pilot?, Space missions for 2020.

@aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com APRIL 2020 13 Blueprint

INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT

Quieter tail rotor The shrouded tail rotor design has been redefined to optimise the noise signature, as well as to improve the service life and ease of maintenance.

Larger cabin The rear cabin has been enlarged to give an additional seat – allowing for eight passengers plus a single pilot. Part of the fuel cells have been relocated from the rear cabin wall to the cabin fl oor.

W GENERAL AVIATION SH09 design tweaked

Switzerland's Kopter, which in January, announced it would be acquired by Leonardo, has revealed fi nal design features to its SH09 single-engined light . The tweaks come from lessons learned from the fl ight testing of its P3 prototype. The company expects to assemble its fi rst production SH09 later this year. The SH09 will be manufactured in Lafayette, Louisiana, US, as well as a new facility in Mollis, Switzerland. Deliveries are set to begin in 2021, with the company saying that it has orders for more than 70 . Kopter

4 AEROSPACE Optimised main rotor SH09 specifications Crew/passengers 5-9 The main rotor has been elongated to Range 430nm improve handling qualities, while the blade Max cruise speed 140kt shape has been optimised to enhance MTOW 6,283lb performance. The architecture features inter-blade elastomeric dampers and external flight control lines to ease maintenance.

Glass cockpit The SH09 features a Garmin G3000H glass-cockpit with two 12in touch-screen displays. The avionics suite has the capability to integrate a four-axis autopilot to allow for IFR operations.

W

Skids updated Landing skids have been updated with a modified geometry and a simpler attachment to the fuselage.

APRIL 2020 5 Radome COVID-19 DEFENCE AEROSPACE Military exercises curtailed Farnborough cancelled

Military exercises and has also been cancelled. routine operations are International exercises in now being affected by Morocco, South Korea the Coronavirus outbreak. and Israel have also been On 11 March, NATO cancelled or scaled back. closed the Norway-  Meanwhile, air based exercise Cold forces have been busy in

Response, which would transporting vital medical Farnborough International have involved 15,000 supplies, including virus On 20 March, Farnborough International Air Show announced that this year's global troops. NATO's tactical air testing kits, patients from aerospace trade exhibition and air show, set for 20-24 July, would now be cancelled warfare exercise, Frisian worst affected areas to due to the Coronavirus. The organisers say the show will return in 2022. The move Flag, set to take place ones with more capacity, came on the same day that the Royal International Air Tattoo reached a similar decision in The Netherlands from as well as helping and cancelled its 2020 air show. Other trade shows and exhibitions cancelled or 23 March - 4 April and repatriate tourists stuck postponed include AERO Friedrichshafen, ILA Berlin, EBACE and the Hamburg involving around 50 overseas. Aircraft Interiors show as well as Cosford and Yeovilton air displays.

AIR TRANSPORT SPACEFLIGHT COVID-19: airlines go into full ESA closes , lockdown mode NASA halts work on SLS As AEROSPACE goes On 16 March the home working. In the US, to press in mid-March, European Space Agency NASA has yet to cancel the world's airlines (ESA) announced that launches, including the have begun cancelling all launches from its fi rst SpaceX Crewed services and grounding spaceport in French Dragon mission in May fl eets as the COVID-19 Guiana, South America, but has instituted remote ICAO pandemic has closed were suspended working plans for its international borders and load factors have plummented. In the US, United has indefi nitely due to the employees. It has also reduced its international services by 95%, while in , budget carrier Ryanair is Coronavirus pandemic. suspended all production to ground almost its entire fl eet after 24 March. In Australia, fl ag carrier Qantas has Meanwhile, the Agency and testing work on the cut all international fl ights and stood down 20,000 of its staff, while Cathay Pacifi c is has shifted the majority System to reduce its fl ights by 96% over April and May. IATA now estimates that the world's of its personnel at its (SLS) at two airlines are facing losses of $252bn. In the UK, Airlines UK is pressing the Government ESOC mission control facilities in Louisiana and for an emergency £7.5bn cash injection. (See ‘A bioshock to aviation’ p 14). centre in Germany to Mississippi.

NEWS IN BRIEF

on 14 March. The lightly and MiG 29s as part of all components of the together to manufacture Boeing has requested a loaded aircraft was its training with the US Air fi t for the additional medical $60bn bailout, including supposed to make a stop Force. adventure need more time ventilators for the UK loan guarantees, from over at Los Angeles but, to complete’, according National Health Service the US Government, because of the US ban on The European Space to ESA. for the Coronavirus to protect itself and international fl ights, made Agency (ESA) and pandemic. Led by , the 2.5million jobs and the non-stop fl ight in 16 Russia’s Roscosmos US aircraft manufacturer which already produces 17,000 companies in its hours. have announced that the Textron is to lay off 7,000 oxygen systems for wider supply chain during Exomars mission launch workers for four weeks due aircraft, GKN, Airbus, the Coronavirus crisis. US fl ight training has now been delayed to the Coronavirus. Most of Thales and Renishaw from contractor Air USA until 2022. The mission, to the layoffs will come from the aerospace industry An Air Tahiti Nui Boeing is reported to have land the European rover the company's factory in together with McClaren 787 Dreamliner has set bought 46 former Royal Rosalind Franklin on the Wichita, Kansas. and Nissan from the a new record for the Australian Air Force Red Planet, was originally automotive sector. The world's longest airline (RAAF) F/A-18 Hornets. intended to be launched A consortium of UK aim is to produce an initial fl ight after fl ying 9,765 Air USA already operates this summer. However, aerospace and automotive 5,000 ventilators followed miles from Tahiti to Paris BAE Hawks, Alpha Jets ‘tests necessary to make companies is to work by an additional 30,000.

6 AEROSPACE DEFENCE AIR TRANSPORT Boeing reveals FARA Regional airlines go under in US, UK On 4 March, cash- to the Coronavirus stricken UK regional airline outbreak. Meanwhile, in collapsed, with its the US, regional carrier aircraft impounded and Minneapolis-based the company going into Compass Airlines, which administration late in flies feeder services the evening. The airline, for American Airlines

Boeing which employed over and Delta Air Lines as Boeing has revealed its entry for the US Army’s Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft 2,000 workers, had American Eagle will close (FARA) programme to replace OH-58D Kiowa Warrior scout helicopters and some AH-64 previously warned that down on 7 April. In St Apaches. Powered by a single General Electric T901 engine, the as yet unnamed Boeing it needed a Government Louis, regional airline Trans Future High-Speed Armed Scout Helicopter is fitted with a single six-bladed main rotor, four- loan of £100m to keep States, Airlines will also bladed tail rotor and four-bladed pusher prop. The helicopter will have a modular cockpit operating, amid a slump cease flight operations on with a reconfigurable large area display and a pilot-optional autonomous capability. in flight bookings due 1 April.

AEROSPACE GENERAL AVIATION UK to leave EASA, says Hybrid-electric VoltAero Cassio Minister begins flight tests

UK Transport Minister powers would revert Grant Shapps MP has back to the UK in a revealed that Britain gradual way – with the is to leave EASA fully aim of the UK developing after Brexit at the end of its own certification and 2020 – with civil aviation standards. Meanwhile, regulatory powers UK aerospace and

reverting back to the defence trade body VoltAero national CAA. ADS had previously France’s VoltAero has said it has began flight tests with its hybrid-electric powered Speaking to US trade estimated that it would Cassio prototype from its HQ in Royan-Médis Aérodrome, France. The aircraft is based publication Aviation take 5-10 years and 300 on a modified pusher-puller Cessna 337 with two Safran electric engines replacing Week, in Washington staff for the UK to regain the forward piston engine. Formed by ex-Airbus CTO Jean Boti, the current testing is DC on 6 March Shapps its responsibilities and focused on a powertrain for a six-seat version of the aircraft, which will be followed by said that regulatory oversight. validation of aerodynamics and configurations for four and nine-seat variants.

Air National Guard. The US carrier Silver Airways is 500 F-35s delivered so Babcock’s Offshore UAV manufacturer UMS Russian flag carrier to introduce four new ATR- far comprise 354 F-35As, business has won a new Skeldar has launched Aeroflot has taken delivery 600 regional turboprops 108 STOVL F-35Bs five-year shared contract a new V-150 VTOL of the first of an eventual into its Caribbean and 38 carrier-capable with three oil and gas platform to support 22 Airbus A350-900s. operation this year. The F-35Cs. operators for helicopter tactical operations first aircraft, an ATR 72- transport in the North including military Bell and a Sikorsky- 600, began flying in March A prototype of SpaceX’s Sea. The contract will missions, surveillance, Boeing team are to go to which will be followed Starship spacecraft was initially see Babcock police and emergency the next stage of the US by three ATR 42-600s in damaged on 28 February operate over 100 response and homeland Army's Future Long Range April, June and July. when a stainless steel helicopter flights each security. The V-150 can Air Assault (FLRAA) tank was blown off the month from Sumburgh carry multiple payloads in programme. Bell will offer On 3 March, Lockheed test stand in Boca Chica, in Shetland, on behalf two payload bays (30kg its V-280 Valor tiltrotor Martin delivered the Texas, during a pressure of CNR International, and 12kg) and be fitted while Sikorsky-Boeing 500th F-35 II. test. The incident is not EnQuest and TAQA. with a variety of different will compete with the The aircraft, a F35A was expected to delay the Flights are expected to sensors depending on the compound helicopter delivered to the Vermont Starship test programme. begin in July. type of mission. SB-1 Defiant.

APRIL 2020 7 Radome

GENERAL AVIATION SPACEFLIGHT up for sale docking milestone Bankrupt Italian Hammerhead, as well On 3 March, aerospace company as the design and Northrop Piaggio Aerospace manufacture of aircraft Grumman’s is being offered for engines. The move comes subsidiary sale, with a deadline after the company was put SpaceLogistics of 3 April for potential into receivership after the docked its bidders. Currently then owner, 's mission extension under ‘extraordinary Mubadala, withdrew. vehicle (MEV-1) administration’, Villanova Piaggio says that it has with commercial d'Albenga-based Piaggio some $490m in its order communications Aero Industries and backlog, with an equal satellite Intelsat Piaggio Aviation are amount of deals pending. 901 (IS-901). The responsible for the P.180 The sale will be subject to manoeuvre was the Avanti twin-turboprop approval from the Italian first time that two commercial have docked in . MEV-1 will remain with IS- business aircraft, a Ministry of Economic 901 for the next five years, using its thrusters and fuel to maintain the satellite’s position. UAV variant, the P1HH Development. A second mission extension vehicle is expected to be launched later this year.

AEROSPACE DEFENCE Bell EDAT breaks cover MBDA tests Sea Venom missile Missile company MBDA a Dauphin helicopter at a has conducted the first shipping container stacked qualification firing trial of on a large vessel at sea. its medium range Sea Developed as part of an Venom anti-ship missile Anglo-French co-operation fired from a helicopter. The programme, the Sea

Bell test was carried out on Venom is intended to be Bell has unveiled a secret rotorcraft demonstrator, based on its 429 helicopter that 20 February at the French used by the French navy’s has been modified with an electric multi-rotor tail fin. The Electrically Distributed Anti- DGA defence procurement future Airbus Helicopters Torque (EDAT) prototype has conducted around 25hrs of flight testing since May 2019 agency’s Essais de H160M and the UK from Bell’s Mirabel, Canada facility. Swapping the traditional tail rotor, powered by missiles test site in the ’s Leonardo transmission from the engines, to four electric fixed-blade motors, reduces noise, carbon Bay of Biscay, in which the Helicopters AW159 emissions and operating costs – as well as enhancing safety, says Bell. missile was launched from Wildcat.

NEWS IN BRIEF

Aircraft in Germany – the Sunak, announced space-based automatic The 20th SpaceX The UK MoD’s Defence original manufacturer and that £800m would be dependent surveillance- Dragon unmanned cargo Equipment and Support design authority – to meet used to create a new broadcast (ADS-B) data. capsule docked with (DE&S) arm has sold civil certification standards research body based on Eurocontrol said that the the International Space 63 decommissioned with the remaining aircraft the original US DARPA agreement will enhance Station on 9 March. Vigilant T1 motor gliders to be engineered and (Defense Advanced flow management The docking was the to disabled pilot charity recertified by Southern Research Projects capabilities across its 41 last time the capsule Aerobility. Formerly Sailplanes in the UK. Agency). Some £100m European member states needed to be captured used to train RAF Air has also been earmarked and two comprehensive using the ISS Canadarm Cadets, the gliders will The latest UK for defence R&D, agreement (CA) states robotic arm, as future be upgraded with new Government budget, including ‘cutting-edge to improve air traffic Dragon capsules will engines, propellers and revealed on 11 March, technology in aviation and predictability, capacity and be designed to dock cockpits with the first has outlined increased space propulsion’. environmental impact. directly. The capsule was aircraft ready to in funding for R&D in Britain carrying over 4,300lb of the summer of 2021. – pledging to double it Eurocontrol has signed a General Atomics food, experiments and The first ten gliders will by 2024. The Chancellor ten year agreement with Aeronautical Systems spare parts. be refurbished by Grob of the Exchequer, Rishi Aireon for the provision of has unveiled its new

8 AEROSPACE DEFENCE GENERAL AVIATION MoD projects £13bn Fly anything using a tablet

black hole, says NAO Skyryse has launched Skyryse a new flight automation The UK National Audit According to the NAO, system which it claims Office (NAO) has warned the MoD’s plans to acquire can be retrofitted onto of a £13bn ‘black hole’ in and support aircraft, any aircraft to enable the Ministry of Defence’s ships and weapons anyone to fly using defence spending. An will cost £183.6bn intuitive controls. Named NAO report claims that the between 2019-29 – an FlightOS, the automated MoD risks losing day-to- overspend of £2.9bn. The system operates using day operational capabilities announcement comes at simplified flight control such as air surveillance the same time that Prime operations in which an due to ‘unaffordable’ Minister Boris Johnson aircraft can be operated with a touchscreen tablet or joystick, while on-board computers equipment plans and being has launched a spending control all aspects of the flight envelope and use exterior radar and sensors for situational ‘over-optimistic’ about its review into UK defence awareness. According to the company, the technology can operate in all weather and ability to make savings. and security strategy. visibility conditions, as well as taking over control in emergency situations.'

AEROSPACE SPACEFLIGHT SpaceJet M90 makes first flight OneWeb reportedly faces bankruptcy Mega-constellation most recent launch taking start-up OneWeb, which place on 21 March using a is aiming to develop Russian . However, a global LEO satellite the company is now communications network reported to be struggling has been considering with higher costs and bankruptcy options intensified competition– Mitsubishi Aerospace On 18 March, Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation successfully flew the first SpaceJet M90 as it runs out of cash, primarily from SpaceX's in its baseline production configuration from Prefectural Nagoya Airport, Japan. The Bloomberg news reports. network, which flight lasted one hour and 45 minutes The regional airliner is an enhanced version of the The satellite operator, is developing a 3,500 original MRJ, which is now running ten years behind schedule. The aircraft will perform founded in 2012, has satellite megaconstellation other tests in Japan, before joining the rest of the MRJ/SpaceJet test fleet in Moses launched 74 of its 650 and which has already Lake, US. The goal is certification this year. satellite fleet, with the deployed 360 spacecraft. BAE Systems

Defender conceptual affordable way, including unmanned air vehicle building operational An eVTOL prototype made ON THE MOVE designed to be used as an readiness at Spaceport by Germany's Lilium Jet air-to-air missile platform America in New Mexico. was damaged by a fire on for protecting large and 27 February. The incident Willie Walsh is to stay on slow-moving aircraft. The Russian Helicopters took place during ground as CEO of IAG due to the Éric Martel is to become UAV could also remain on has delivered the first maintenance in a hangar. Coronavirus crisis. the new President and station longer by being serial produced twin- CEO of Bombardier. refuelled by aerial tankers. engine multi-purpose Correction James Taiclet has been Mi-38 helicopter to the In the March edition of named successor to the has Holdings Gazprombank Leasing AEROSPACE, in the Lockheed Martin CEO, appointed Chikage Myoshi has reported a net loss of company. Built by article Stronger Togther, Marillyn Hewson, effective as Associate Professor we incorrectly referred to $73m for 2019. However, Kazan Helicopters, the 15 June. in Environment Systems the Director of Life Cycle the company announced aircraft will be operated Management at the NATO for Aerospace and Guy that it achieved the key by Russian Helicopter Support Procurement Agency Nikki Haley, former US Gratton, as Associate milestones in its mission Systems (RHS) in a (NSPA) as Rudolf Mauser. Ambassador to the UN, Professor in Aviation and to open access to space corporate transport His correct name is Rudolf has resigned from the the Environment. Maus. We apologise for any in a safe, innovative and configuration. confusion. board of Boeing.

APRIL 2020 9 By the Numbers Understanding the world of Aerospace through data The Effects of Covid-19 on World Aerospace IATA Airports Council International Council Airports

10 AEROSPACE

April By The Numbers.indd 2 24/03/2020 15:28 Pushing the Envelope Exploring advances on the leading edge of aerospace Robert Coppinger Aerospace pulls 5Gs

upersonic aircraft could be linked to a 5G report. For aviation, 5G is seen as being key terrestrial 5G network over land even to enabling cost-effective urban air mobility traffic if the Mach-1 plus business jets in control. development cruise near the speed of There are two key differences between 5G and sound. The technology of 5G is expected its predecessors. One, the wide-area network has Sto bring true broadband to passenger and crew more small cells and masts, which use millimetre alike and magnify airport communications, while wave frequencies for a shorter connection range. also simplifying an airport’s network and reducing The second is that wide-area network uses multiple in-flight telecommunications’ need for satellites. input, multiple output (MIMO) antennas to link For governments, Chinese 5G provider Huawei has with those small cell clusters. Nokia’s air-to-ground courted controversy with accusations of being in system uses MIMO antennas to communicate cahoots with the Beijing regime but US firms Intel with aircraft. This all in turn connects to the core and Verizon and the European companies Ericsson network which consists of telecoms exchanges and Nokia are also offering 5G solutions. with distributed Internet servers to reduce response times, along with a voice and data management The speed of the sound of voice calls system which is fully integrated with the Internet and cloud-based services. The one-time mobile phone giant, Nokia, has a 5G solution that it says can work with vehicles Building air 5G at speeds of up to 1,200kph (745mph). Existing standards have only allowed speeds of up to With 5G, passengers are expected to notice a 300kph. Nokia has a 4G LTE, or Long-Term difference in service levels curbside, long before Evolution, air-to-ground version of this and it is they get airside. For the airport, cable-free terminals used by Deutsche Telekom’s European Aviation are being touted as a benefit, along with fewer Network (EAN) broadband service. The EAN also WIFI access points and radio cell masts; less to uses Inmarsat satellite communications and Thales be maintained but far greater data throughput. For avionics and it operates within the European this communications revolution, the 5G market in Union. The International Airlines Group uses EAN aviation in 2021 will be worth $0.5bn with North and Nokia’s 4G LTE. Whether it is 5G or 4G LTE, America representing the largest share and airports passengers would connect through an onboard the main investment, according to Indian market antenna. Other companies which are offering an research firm Markets And Markets Research. airborne 5G service are Ericsson, with Panasonic The Indian firm also estimates a rapidly growing Avionics Corporation technology and in-flight 5G aviation market reaching a worth of $3.9bn by connectivity firm Gogo with network systems 2026. specialist Cisco. In an airport, the 5G network will connect A 5G network is a radio system operating in the to the existing 4G equipment and use it for the microwave band of the electromagnetic spectrum. bandwidth capacity expansion and smoother service Microwave radiation is between 300 megahertz passengers will experience. Airports can already and 300 gigahertz. Mobile phones use part of that install 4G LTE networks to improve upon the legacy microwave band, from 900MHz to 1.8GHz. A 5G 3G grid performance. Alongside the passenger NOKIA, HAS A network’s two main components, the radio access services, airports are being offered private 5G staff 5G SOLUTION network and the core network, are also used by networks for security and reliability. Today, many THAT IT SAYS its telecommunications predecessors, 3G and 4G. airports use the same WIFI network for staff and Many promises have been made for the enormous passengers. Ultimately, air traffic control is seen as CAN WORK WITH bandwidth of 5G: the consumer terrestrial service a beneficiary of 5G with far greater communication VEHICLES AT could deliver as much as 100 megabits per second, between ATC and incoming and departing aircraft, SPEEDS OF UP TO according to technology advisory firm Ovum’s 2018 enabling a far more efficient use of airspace. 1,200KPH

APRIL 2020 11

Pulling%205G-2.indd 1 24/03/2020 15:33 Transmission

LETTERS AND ONLINE @aerosociety i Find us on LinkedIn f Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com Drones vs pilots

@maxsundance1 [On @NoliMarcelo I don’t think ‘Breaking through the HUD- so. It’s like when they said glass ceiling’ blog – is the end (early jet era) that of the fi ghter pilot here?(4)] aerial dogfi ghting with guns Yes! The era of the drones is was also obsolete. f i already here + AI. With all the technological advances that come up every day, I would @HenryCobb The next Aviation and Covid-19 AeroChallenge Women in Aviation not underestimate the AI of generation fi ghter pilot shall being more accurate than be a forward mentor for our Charlie Jeffs Aviation was George F. Very happy with humans in any dog fi ghter. remotely mentored aircraft. doomed the moment we the result, thank you for And why are we still fi ghting decided to leave the EU. organising a great event! Covid-19 has just accelerated with each other? @timdavies_uk Don’t worry, it, don’t blame the virus, blame Talitha-Kay Greatorex So the end of the fi ghter pilot is the public brain sickness, proud of you all! Well done! failing to think fi rst. @Elchrich_Elch I heard this nigh but their egos will last a already in the ‘50s. Drones millennium. Alex Middleton A great are still more vulnerable to Young Persons’ event! Very Flybe bankruptcy cyberwarfare than a F-4. happy with the result and to Thanks to the engagement of Eur Ing Bishnujee Singh meet so many like-minded our speakers at the fi rst-ever They just need to move on people. Women in Aviation Forum with another . held by @AeroSociety Life never ends, airlines Penny Broadway Well done @RAeSParis on 10 across the continent are in Team Leeds! March, we learned of their the same boat due to fl ight motivation, the challenges cancellations. New Members spotlight they faced, their professional achievements and the AeroChallenge Fadl I [On New members messages to young women Spotlight Shumit Das(1)] keen on entering the domain. Congratulations on the Fellowship Shumit Das! Aviation and Covid-19 Jamie Jungmi Seebaluck @AlexLuck9 [On ‘A @RAeSCareers [Cool Aeronatics Super Thursday] Well done Shumit. Keep Bioshock to aviation – what #ThrowbackThursday to last week when we brought you making us proud!! next’ blog(2)] Excellent and #superthursday with three #coolaeronautics across the UK & very thorough write-up on Ireland! With support from @RAFHalton, @RollsRoyce and An annual event for teams Zuhair Mir Hey Shumi where it’s at for the aviation @irishskys we #inspired over 200 children with #aerospace of young people organised congrats mate what an industry – Brace brace brace! and #STEM activities. by the RAeS Young Persons’ achievement. Committee, AeroChallenge Allen Coughlan 2020 was held at No. 4 Chris Fonseka All good Hamilton Place on 4 March. @Brannonski Uncharted wishes Shumit. territory in all areas! In fact End of an era for A380 ,the uncomfortable truth is Nuno Helder Congratulations to Team Shumit Das, that air transport is what has AvSoc UoL from the look at you! New member? actually got to this uncharted University of Leeds for Weren’t you and Olivia territory! Interesting times winning #Aerochallenge2020 Stodieck representing it at ahead for one such as myself – students have fi nally taken Airbus Bristol? that own an ATO... I was the from the grads! worried about coming out of Shumit Das Thank you to all the teams for Heya Nuno! EASA! Bigger issues now! taking part. And thank you to New Member because new Fellow. Actually Olivia and the Leonardo Company for Redirect space funds supporting this event once I were representing the again. #aerochallenge Materials Society #SAMPE @aerodynmagic [On UK & Ireland when we were Spacefl ight in 2020 – a look at Aerospace Bristol last (3) ahead ] Would be better In February the last A380 wing produced at Airbus Broughton Magdalene Elyetu week! to donate every penny of in Wales was shipped by barge to Mostyn to be transported to Unfortunately all men – money to virus Toulouse. The starboard wing is pictured here proceeding down where are the women? research. the River Dee at Queensferry near Chester.

12 AEROSPACE Aerospace ventilators Future of Red Arrows From the RAeS photo archives

@ProfAtkin [On Aerospace @yasserthoughts [On RAeS/NAL consortium races to produce Could RAF Red Arrows ventilator] Some action evolve into a joint display/ already, efforts probably more aggressor sqn after the widespread too. Hawk T1A retires?] The PAF Sherdils can act as a model here. Pilots @MichaelJPryce Getting taken from PAF academy qualifi ed machinists etc from staff, K-8a borrowed from aerospace fi rms into the academy fl eet. Obviously factories of existing ventilator not 100% ideal but very manufacturers could also cost effi cient. They could be be valuable. Rapid ramp up better but the pilots are full to 24/7 shifts and cross- time instructors so need to learning on processes to feed balance that off. A part time back to new producers. team is better than no team at all. It would be tragic if The Reds were axed. Al Worden RIP

@steveaprocter [On Apollo 15, Col Al Worden passes @daylyt100 Absolutely away aged 88] Very sad agree. I was instructor and news. A lovely man who loved part time team member for a being over here in the UK season and was exhausted. when he could. I just can’t see national aerobatic team free-lancing Unloading bullion to the approximate value of $48,000,000 which was transported from part time as ‘aggressors’ Germany to Croydon by a Junkers G24, as payment from Germany to Britain under the @Rob_Coppinger I enjoyed other than as a ‘war role’. I Dawes Plan, July 1925. interviewing him many years don’t think, for many UK.co ago and talking to him about reasons, it will come to that. his deep space EVA, the very UK to leave EASA Airline pilot jobs under threat fi rst. @PhillipCovell [On UK @rys_parker What most @vcs22 Yes it’s not to leave EASA] Seems people fail to realise, is uncommon, however, the FAST Black Arrow an unusually long and there’s virtually no sideways airlines have gone through movement in this business. a decade of massive profi ts,

FAST bureaucratic timeline to me! Surely you start by adopting It’s all seniority based. which have never been seen. everything as it is, then Whether you have 200hrs or All this should give them progressively changing that 10,000hrs, you start a new suffi cient fi nancial heft to which you want to change, company at the bottom of the treat their employees well in so the emphasis goes on ladder. No negotiating your trying times. recruitment and training ‘package’ – it’s pay point 1 where required. @krisvancleave They aren’t making anyone take @matthewsydney In unpaid leave at this point. @@AltaMentoring normal times, is there ever An unpaid leave where pressure within the pilot the employee keeps their @SouthernFairy16 Just community in airlines to benefi ts and travel privileges had my fi rst request on reform that system, and is not uncommon in the airline @AltaMentoring to be a might this precipitate that? world. But this is not likely to #BlackArrow rocket 1st stage joins two other historic British mentor for a lady looking to Would imagine strong vested be a single quarter. Airlines aircraft on display at @FASTmuseum – Cody’s get into the aerospace sector. interests in favour and are bracing for possibly years Aeroplane No 1A and the record-breaking HAPS UAV Exciting! @RAeSCareers against... of recovery. #avgeek #spacefl ight

1. https://aerosociety.com/news/new-member-spotlight-shumit-das/ 2. https://aerosociety.com/news/a-bioshock-to-aviation-what-next/ 3. https://aerosociety.com/news/spacefl ight-in-2020-a-look-ahead/ 4. https://aerosociety.com/news/breaking-through-the-hud-glass-ceiling/

@aerosociety i linkedin.com/raes f facebook.com/raes www.aerosociety.com APRIL 2020 13 AEROSPACE Coronavirus

A Bioshock to aviation – what next?

As the air transport system reels under the unprecedented pressure from a global pandemic, TIM ROBINSON looks at the impact on the world’s airlines and the global aerospace system.

nly six months ago, the world’s to be the size of that of Portugal. Whole countries airlines were in rude health. After are now in lockdown. Aircraft fleets are grounded another straight year of profits, and the global air transport system, that critical the biggest crisis facing some oil that lubricates the world economy, is in danger was that manufacturers were not of seizing up completely. The global pandemic Ogetting aircraft fast enough to cope with insatiable is not just affecting airlines but is now rippling demand. Climate change was the biggest cloud through supply chains, tourism, industry events on the horizon but airlines and OEMs were safe in and even spaceflight, as entire countries have the apparent law of nature that, despite blips, air gone into lockdown, with borders closing and travel doubles every 15 years. ‘social distancing’ rules coming in. With sports, entertainment, restaurants, social and face-to-face Then the Coronavirus struck. activity curtailed, the entire world economy may be on the brink of recession. The deadly virus, The Chinese aviation market, predicted to be the spreading out from its origin in Wuhan, China, biggest in the world by 2022, rapidly contracted has now entered Europe and the US, home to the

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Coronavirua.indd 2 24/03/2020 13:45 most mature and busiest airline markets. These 70-90% and all AF A380s and KLM 747s being factors, and the uncertainty of when restrictions parked up. Finnair, meanwhile, is to reduce its might ease, make it clear that this is an existential capacity by 90%. crisis that dwarfs even 9/11 – where fears of In the UK, British Airways CEO Alex Cruz told terrorism temporarily suppressed demand for air staff on 13 March that the flag carrier faces “a travel. crisis of global proportions like no other we have Traffic has dropped completely – and as a known” with the airline expecting to ground 50% scale of measurement while the 9/11 attacks of its aircraft. Only a few days later, its owner, caused a 18.9% fall in US capacity and the 2008 IAG which also comprises Aer Lingus and Iberia, financial crash caused a 10% drop, predictions said it will reduce capacity by 75%. EasyJet now are around the 50% just for US airlines. meanwhile, has already cancelled 40% of its Some other analysts suggest that a staggering flights in March and is expecting to ground the 80% of the global fleet could be grounded – majority of its fleet. is to ground an unprecedented number. The CAPA Centre 75% of its fleet and is asking staff to take eight for Aviation, for example, has an apocalyptic weeks unpaid leave. prediction that, by the end of May, most airlines Outside Europe, Korean Air has grounded will be bankrupt without some form of 100 of its aircraft or some 80% of

state support. Such is the speed of Bonnielou2013 its capacity while Emirates has this crisis, that a prediction from IATA cancelled flights to 30 international that in a worst case scenario, the destinations and pilots have being world’s airlines will need $113bn to asked to take unpaid leave. Cathay survive, was quickly surpassed. IATA Pacific has cut its flights by 90% now estimates that carriers will need while Sri Lankan has suspended $200bn in bailouts. operations. In Australia, Qantas is to There is also no immediate halt international flights and lay off answer to when the situation 20,000 of its staff. might recover or even ease. With In the US, the situation is not groundings and flight cancellations much better. While the US has, so running through April into May – the far, resisted a flight ban on domestic disruption may last longer. While air travel, airlines were caught off President Trump has said that the guard by the announcement by worst may be over by August, the UK President Donald Trump of a ban on Government is planning on the basis transatlantic travel for continental that it could be a long campaign and it European nations on 12 March – may not be until April 2021 until things return to adding to existing bans on travel from China and normal. In the meantime, the economic damage Iran. This directive (which did not include cargo or to the world’s air transport sector – which carries US citizens, as well as the US and Ireland) added 4.4bn passengers every year and is worth $2.7tn to confusion. The UK and Ireland were added to – is unprecedented. the ban on 16 March while travel between the US and Canada curtailed to ‘non-essential travel’. The skies shutdown These restrictions to transatlantic services on the world’s most lucrative and busiest long-haul THE CAPA The magnitude of the crisis has accelerated route have caused US airlines to face capacity CENTRE FOR rapidly, catching airlines off guard with capacity cuts. American Airlines, for example, cancelled reductions now expanded to full blown 75% of its international services while United AVIATION, groundings as nations lock down their borders. has announced that it is looking at 60% cuts FOR EXAMPLE, Ryanair, for example, Europe’s largest budget and warning things could get worse. Delta Air HAS AN airline with over 450 aircraft, is to ground almost Lines meanwhile, cancelled all flights to mainland APOCALYPTIC all its entire fleet from 24 March, except for Europe and, in the space of a few days, has essential UK-Ireland services. This follows in doubled the number of aircraft it will park up from PREDICTION the footsteps of airlines such as Poland’s LOT, 300 to 600. For its part, JetBlue is to slash its THAT, BY SAS, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines and Air flights by 40% in April and May. THE END OF Baltic – as well as a French all-business carrier, One bright spot is that airlines in mainland MAY, MOST La Compagnie. Meanwhile, other airlines are China, where carriers cancelled an average of scrambling to reduce capacity, with Lufthansa 10-22% flights in January and February – some AIRLINES WILL Group parking up 95% of its fleet, Norwegian are looking to reinstate services as the outbreak BE BANKRUPT Air cutting 85% of its flights and laying off 90% seems to be slowing due to draconian measures. WITHOUT SOME of its workforce. The crisis is accelerating the These above are obviously just a snapshot of retirement of larger aircraft – with Air France- the cuts and cancellations across the entire globe FORM OF STATE KLM announcing that flights will be reduced by and the situation is extremely fluid. SUPPORT.

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Coronavirua.indd 3 24/03/2020 13:45 AEROSPACE Coronavirus Ministerio Defensa The entire aerospace industry reels system to successfully restart production on the other side of the crisis. It is also not just airlines that are suffering but also With mass gatherings now cancelled across the other sectors of aerospace and aviation. Military globe and governments warning against assembling exercises have either been curtailed (NATO Cold more than ten people together, the aerospace sectors Response) or cancelled (Frisian Flag) while the conference, exhibition and air show schedules has Pentagon has cancelled all non-essential domestic been thrown into limbo. Business aviation show travel until 11 May. The virus has also spread to affect EBACE (26 May), Germany’s ILA Berlin (13-17 May) the aerospace supply chain, destroying demand for and Hamburg Aircraft Interiors (30 March-2 April) new aircraft and threatening existing production lines. have all been cancelled or postponed – with other On 17 March, Airbus announced that it would close smaller air shows and industry events being cancelled assembly lines in France and Spain to implement or postponed. Going forward it is uncertain what that stringent health and hygiene measures. In the means for the busy summer airshow season – as we US, Boeing already in crisis with the 737MAX still go to press, both RIAT and the Farnborough Air Show grounded, faces demand for new aircraft falling off a in the UK, are now cancelled. cliff edge, just when it was expecting the narrowbody to return to flight. Meanwhile, with its base in the What can be done? epicentre of the European outbreak, ’s Leonardo group has suspended deliveries of helicopters. This unprecedented crisis for airlines and the Even in spaceflight, the Coronavirus is now aviation industry has meant there have been calls for affecting everyday operations. ESA has suspended extensive government assistance and support to help all launches from its spaceport in French Guiana in help survive. Loosening of slot restrictions on airports South America. NASA has yet to cancel launches was one of the first measures to be announced, but has instituted remote working plans for its hoping to end ‘ghost flights’ where airlines flew employees. almost empty aircraft to retain landing rights at key The effects are also likely to ripple down the airports under the ‘use it or lose it rule’. global aerospace supply chain. While OEMs and Tier Airlines are now pressing for direct bailouts and 1 suppliers should have enough resilience, SMEs state support. In the UK, the Airlines UK industry that supply components or sub-components (already group has called for an immediate £7.5bn emergency under pressure from above to cut costs) will be at stimulus from the government to assist beleaguered greater risk of going bankrupt while production lines airlines. In Italy, the Government has already indicated are at a standstill. Loss of these small companies, it will re-nationalise flag carrier Alitalia in a €600m that produce parts to feed into the giant aerospace bailout – the latest twist in the fortunes of the ailing supply chain, could hamper the capability of the national airline. Over in India, the latest news is the Boeing

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Coronavirua.indd 4 24/03/2020 13:45 Chad Davies/Flickr

Government is planning a $1.8bn rescue bailout for airlines, as well as those with de-facto state its stricken airlines. In Norway, the Government has ownership will emerge from the other side. promised $533m to its airlines, including Norwegian What also is unclear is what will happen to airline Air, Wideroe and SAS. staff and pilots furloughed in this period. In previous Meanwhile in the US, the Airlines 4 America crises, the mobility and skills of airline pilots allowed trade body is pressing for a $50bn emergency them to move to where the highest demand was. stimulus to assist the country’s airlines, including Now, with a global pandemic and recession, the direct grants, loans and tax relief – with a warning option to move to sunnier climes may simply not be that airlines are burning through $10bn a month to available. Recurrent checks, type ratings and the stay afloat. The US is also considering assistance for need to maintain currency thus mean that if the the aerospace sector – primarily its strategic asset shutdown is prolonged, the more difficult it will be for

and leading exporter, Boeing, with a GotoVan airlines to ramp up when passengers requested $60bn bailout. Ironically, this return. plea for state assistance from Boeing came only 24 hours after Washington What can aviation do to raised import tariffs on Airbus products help? from 10% to 15% for European subsidies. However terrible this pandemic is, However, money for corporate aviation is also on the front line in bailouts has not been welcome by saving lives, delivering much needed everyone. In the US, fingers have been medical equipment and aid to the pointed at airlines that have invested worst hit areas, as well as repatriating 96% of their free cashflow into ‘share passengers to their own countries as buyback schemes’ instead of future the world goes into lockdown. Cargo- resilience. Boeing too was already only flights using passenger aircraft under criticism for its focus on share are already taking place, as well as dividends, even before the virus outbreak. There are humanitarian flights delivering essential testing thus calls that any state rescue cash infusions come equipment and medical supplies. In France, the with conditions that protect jobs and services first Armee d’Air has been using its Airbus A330MRTTs and foremost. configured as medical transports to shift infected Some airlines, therefore, could be looking at patients from cities in France with overwhelmed nationalisation or consolidation. These may be the hospitals to those with more space capacity. In the lucky ones, with travel restrictions and economic US, the USAF has swung into action to transport carnage causing others to go under. It is thus likely 500,000 Coronavirus sampling kits aboard a C-17 then, that only the biggest and most well-financed from Italy to the US.

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Coronavirua.indd 5 24/03/2020 13:45 AEROSPACE Coronavirus

As well as these relief and cargo flights, How long will this last? there have also been calls to utilise the now-idle resources of the world’s airlines in what amounts All indications are that this will not be over to wartime conditions. Could airline food caterers quickly and it will take time either for populations AN INDUSTRY be mobilised to deliver essential meals to the to acquire ‘herd immunity’ or a vaccine to be elderly and those in quarantine? Airport cleaners developed and distributed. While there is enough THAT HAS to help disinfect hospitals? Another suggestion evidence to suggest that pent-up demand for BROUGHT has been to ask flight attendants, who foreign travel and holidays will return, THE WORLD already have medical and emergency Bonnielou2013 there may well be restrictions on TOGETHER... training, to be deployed to assist travel and tourism – from countries frontline health workers – thus that have conquered the outbreak NOW FINDS keeping them employed and paid, to those still suffering from it. One THAT, TO HALT as well as reducing the burden on positive aspect is that in China, the THE TIDAL medical staff. The air transport sector worst seems to be over and life is thus, deprived of its passengers, is now returning to normal admittedly WAVE OF potentially a valuable resource of after an extreme lockdown. Some DEATHS, IT individuals with skills in organisation, experts warn, however that a second MUST STOP logistics and who are already wave could easily spring up once CONNECTING focused on safety. restrictions are relaxed. Meanwhile, the There is also an unknown factor in PEOPLE sector is also quickly shifting to assist. how the necessity of remote working Investments by aerospace in 3D and video conferences will change printing and rapid prototyping is now demand, at least for business travel. being redirected towards the manufacturing of Much as how the corporate travel departments ventilators needed by those Coronavirus patients ‘discovered’ non-frills carriers in the wake of in the most serious condition. In the UK, Meggitt, the 2008 financial crash, will investment in Airbus, Thales, GKN and Renishaw are now part high-speed broadband for HD video mean that of industrial consortia racing to develop life-saving passenger demand has permanently shifted? Will oxygen ventilators, in parallel with automotive working from home destroy the case for eVTOLs companies. to escape traffic in crowded cities? The worldwide talent, experience and There have been calls for ‘social distancing technology of aerospace is thus being focused on rules’ to be applied to airlines – spreading out the biggest challenge that humanity has faced since passengers and blocking the booking of middle WW2. seats. While the circulation of airflow is highly Dipartimento Protezione Civile Dipartimento

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Coronavirua.indd 6 24/03/2020 13:46 Ministerio Defensa

effective in scrubbing germs for the air onboard Only a decade ago, international point-to-point aircraft – fewer seats would lower yields – connections to secondary cities like Wuhan in aviation has been pushing ticket prices up and reversing the trend China would have been few and far between on the front line towards air travel for the masses that came in half and would have slowed the initial spread. A side a century ago with the 747. effect of globalisation and the travel of people delivering much In the future, a temperature scanner and and goods is the ease in which other actors, needed medical potentially health screening at airports is likely such as terrorism and disease, can also quickly equipment as well to become as indispensable as passport and spread. security screening. There may also need to be Make no mistake – aviation as we know it as repatriating thinking about redesign of airport, cabin and is in a fight for its survival in the worst crisis passengers travel infrastructure to allow for ‘social distancing’ of its 100+ year history. An industry that has to their own in transit and to avoid the situation where an brought the world together and facilitated countries epidemic flare-up in one country jumps across affordable and swift face-to-face contact borders to become a global pandemic. between people from other sides of the globe, Airlines, tourism, sport and events industries now finds that, to halt the tidal wave of deaths, are likely to be on life support for a while. And it must stop connecting people. As United CEO, while industry bailouts will be compelling, the bulk Oscar Munoz notes: “When medical experts say of any government’s resources will be going now that our health and safety depends on people to heath services and emergency critical care. staying home and practising social distancing, What is true is that the world will never be the it’s nearly impossible to run a business whose same again. shared purpose is ‘Connecting people. Uniting the world.’” Summary Aviation may have had a hand in spreading the virus but it will also play a role in fighting It is also true that the global air transport system it too. As the essential lubricant of the world’s has helped the rapid spread of this disease – as economy, it is vital that air transport is there well as the slow response by some governments to keep the motor running – lest it seize up to realise the scale of the crisis they are facing. completely.

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Coronavirua.indd 7 24/03/2020 13:46 DEFENCE Pilots and higher command BAE Systems Breaking through the HUD-glass ceiling

Does the Chief of an Air Force necessarily need to be a pilot? Increasingly, the world’s oldest independent air arm, the , thinks not. TIM ROBINSON reports.

ilots and aircrew, for very good historical Personnel and Air Secretary, Air Vice Marshal Maria reasons, dominate the higher command Byford, began her career in the RAF as a dentist. echelons of air forces. However why is Meanwhile, a comms engineer, Group Captain Emily this? And does it matter? One of the Flynn is set to be the next CO of RAF Brize Norton. biggest differences to other services, Indeed, the RAF’s Assistant Chief of the Air Pit could be argued, is that in air forces it is the Staff, Air Vice Marshal Ian Gale, says it is not just officers (or aircrew) that go out to do the actual the case of that a future CAS ‘could’ be non-aircrew fighting while the NCOs and enlisted personnel but that they ‘should’ be. This buy-in from current stay back at base – rather than in the army (where senior officers (part of the RAF’s initiative the officers traditionally sent the men into battle to empower and harness its personnel at all levels) or the navy (where officers and sailors fought and thus suggests that the service is already making the died together). This is obviously somewhat of a cognitive shift in this regard in opening up the top simplification (NCO aircrew provided the bulk of job to a wider set of potential applicants. Battle of Britain fighter pilots and casualty rates in The ASTRA initiative itself is set to be one of junior infantry officers are over and above enlisted the headline topics at this year’s RAF Chief of the soldiers) – yet the concept of it being the officers Air Staff Air and Space Conference (ASPC), held who fight in air arms has persisted. on 15-16 July in London. This annual gathering, Interestingly, the RAF is already moving in this which attracts over 40 air force chiefs and 500 direction in promoting non-aircrew to ever more high-ranking delegates from military, industry senior leadership positions. The Chief of Staff and academia, is a key barometer and thought-

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BreakingHUD20celing B A.indd 2 24/03/2020 14:13 leadership forum for air power professionals. that with winning human, tech and network With a theme of ‘Information Advantage’, this opportunities – it’s modern magic and mischief.” year’s ASPC will also look at how air forces can AIRCOGXX includes specialists in tactical achieve and retain the ‘cognitive edge’ in future information warfare, behavioural psychology, air operations. Says the RAF’s current Chief of linguistics, intelligence, high-threat operations and the Air Staff (himself a former pilot), Air strategic communications, as well as experts in Chief Marshal Mike Wigston, of ASPC: ‘Our aim is content generation and photography, engineering, to put Information Advantage at the forefront of high performance coaching and global corporate international air and space power debate.’ consultancy – for the ‘multi-domain knife fight’. It is a topical subject, given that this year sees Interestingly, AIRCOGX is also branch/rank the 80th anniversary of the ultimate air conflict agnostic. – the Battle of Britain – which saw Dowding – ‘We’re facing a golden age of information leveraging his ‘information advantage’ of radar, the warfare,” said Wing Commander Rolf Kurth, a new Observer Corps and the Fighter Command defence RAF Reservist, brought in as Phantom’s Tactical network – to beat a famous ex-WW1 ace opponent Director, “but we can be more clever and more who was fixated on older tactics and suffering from disruptive to our adversaries. In fact, I’m learning that an incomplete intelligence picture over the strength the best RAF tradition is its appetite to innovate – of the RAF. It is thus no coincidence that, in 2018, it’s a very exciting time.” the RAF reformed its historic Battle of Britain 11 Having, it seems, been on the ‘back foot’ against Group as its ‘multi-domain eyes and ears’ for future Russian information operations, fake news and threats. weaponised memes – is AIRCOGXX now a sign From ‘Dowding to Digital’, ASTRA and the next- that the West is beginning to fight back in the generation air force are thus set to be some of the information domain? AIRCOGXX’s presentation key themes over the two days of ASPC 2020 this then, of its early ‘Playbook’ experiment in summer – building on last year’s conference which conceptualising ‘Tactical Air Information Advantage’ saw UK hypersonics, space power and ‘grey-zone’ will thus be of major interest at this year’s ASPC – competition make headlines. especially for those air forces introducing the game- As well as senior speakers from the RAF, Royal changing F-35 and searching for new and novel Navy (First Sea Lord) and international air forces, ideas about how to use it to its full capabilities. political figures and industry, the conference is Is then, AIRCOGXX a Phantom Menace to widening out its reach to include presentations from the cultural dominance of fighter pilots in air force some of the most innovative and dynamic pockets leadership? Or just the latest evolution of innovation of personnel – such as the RAF’s e-sports and in aerial combat? video gaming association. There is also set to be a presentation from a new innovation cell at RAF The rise of the ‘Knights of the Sky’ Marham – (home of the F-35B Lightning fleet) – AIRCOGXX. The evolution of air warfare in the early days and the novelty of flight saw pioneering military pilots Phantom innovators closely linked (and in some cases drawn from) the most glamorous branch of the army – the cavalry. This new unit, of ‘free-thinking innovators’ is called The cavalry’s role (of reconnaissance) and its speed, The Phantom Air Cognitive Manoeuvre Team ‘WE ARE elan and fighting thus migrated easily over (AIRCOGXX) and is further evidence of how the THE ONLY to aircraft and its pilots. Aircraft were seen (and RAF is setting the pace in aiming to pull agile ORGANISATION were) dangerous in themselves, difficult to master thinking from all its personnel, not just its aircrew and therefore required a special level of courage through its ASTRA initiative. Its name ‘Phantom’ THAT RECRUITS to fly and fight. It is thus no wonder then that, just draws from the unconventional WW2 liaison OUR CEO as traditional cavalry roles died out in the trenches regiment (which actor David Niven) which delivered BASED of WW1, these new aerial scouts evolved into the real-time battle reports direct to GHQ. The ‘XX’ ON THEIR ‘Knights of the Sky’. is also, says the RAF, a ‘gentle nod’ to the ‘double Furthermore, the selection process, training and cross’ system of WW2 – which fed false information HAND-EYE weeding out of those not suitable (eyesight, poor to Nazi agents. COORDINATION hand-eye co-ordination) thus meant that the pilot Based with the RAF’s new fifth-generation AT AGE 17. quickly became regarded as an elite warrior – with asset at RAF Marham- the F-35B – AIRCOGXX only the best candidates having the right stuff. This has a similar remit to use disruptive thinking and Greg Bagwell has continued today with the average cost of training innovation to exploit and support the Lightning II’s President of the a pilot of over £4m each. Air forces then can be strict already impressive sensor and stealth capabilities. in selecting only the very best to be pilots. Says AIRCOGXX’s founder, Squadron Leader Air and Space There is also the factor that the fighter pilot, Rob Pitt: “Air Information Advantage is about Power unlike infantry on the ground or sailors onboard a remembering some wartime daring and overlaying Association ship, has no comrades immediately nearby to turn

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BreakingHUD20celing B A.indd 3 24/03/2020 14:13 DEFENCE Pilots and higher command US US MoD

to in high-stress situations. Even with the advent encounter new tactics, weapons or aircraft (eg of radios and now datalinks – the single-seat jets) in the skies. This knowledge and experience fighter pilot fights their war alone. Mastering their thus gave them a vital edge in adapting to air fear, then is a prerequisite even before the enemy warfare where technology rapidly advanced over appears – and this too has fed into the course of months or even weeks. the cult of the ‘single combat warrior’ Underlying this too, is perhaps a – a style of warfare that dates back more negative aspect – that pilots to ancient times when ‘champions’ arguably had less respect for those would fight duels to decide larger outside their own elite tribe – and battles. thus, some would argue, would have It is therefore no wonder then, IN 2009, FOR difficulties in taking orders from that with WW1’s ‘Knights of the Air’, EXAMPLE, THE non-aircrew. Even within the pilot WW2’s Battle of Britain’s The Few tribe, there are subdivisions between and latterly Top Gun, that the pilot USAF TRAINED transport, helicopter and fighter types (and especially the fighter pilot) has MORE DRONE – and sub-divisions within those – been elevated to a mythical status OPERATORS such as the ‘Harrier mafia’. Each then as the ultimate warrior and leader. THAN BOTH is subconsciously assigned a status Superior hand/eye skills, quick level based on the role and difficulty reactions, rapid decision-making, FIGHTER of mastering a particular aircraft. aggression and ‘Type A’ personalities AND Tom Wolfe’s classic tome, The Right has thus formed a natural pool of PILOTS. WILL Stuff on the early Mercury astronauts, leaders for air forces to recruit from. gives an into the professional And why not? The pilot was the one THESE DRONE pecking order of fighter pilot, test who entered battle, put their life on SPECIALISTS, pilot and finally astronaut. the line and experienced first-hand IN 20 YEARS All of the above has effectively air combat. It also was remarkably TIME, BE meant a ‘HUD-glass ceiling’ for egalitarian – class, riches or formal anyone aspiring to command an air education make no difference to the TOMORROW’S force – they must be a pilot. However skills needed for survival in the sky. LEADERS? is that really now the case? As AM It was too, pilots who held Greg Bagwell, President of the Air the ‘information advantage’ from and Space Power Association, notes: seeing first-hand the movement of enemy armies ‘We are the only organisation that recruits our CEO during aerial reconnaissance, to being the first to based on their hand-eye co-ordination at age 17.”

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BreakingHUD20celing B A.indd 4 24/03/2020 14:13 But superb hand-eye co-ordination does not Second, just as the role and the importance of always equate to equivalent levels of management the individual pilot is decreasing, other roles and or organisational skill – and indeed is nothing new. jobs in air forces are increasing in importance. Air Lord Trenchard himself, the founder of the RAF, combat (even in WW1) has always been a ‘team was reportedly described as an ‘indifferent pilot’ sport’ from ground crew, intelligence officers and and a ‘dangerous’ flying instructor. Instead, his wingmen – but now this ecosystem is widening skills were in far-seeing organisational qualities further with AEW, tankers and transport aircraft and in the management of a new and embryonic to include space assets, cyber and UAVs. Aircrew, air arm. Meanwhile, the RAF’s Battle of Britain on the very tip of the spear, are thus becoming mastermind, Air Chief Marshal Sir Hugh Dowding submerged in a larger network of ‘multi-domain’ too, although a fighter pilot in WW1 and while he capabilities and platforms. The traditional lines commanded 16 Sqn, is barely remembered between ‘sensors’ and ‘shooters’ are thus A ir for his actual flying exploits. Ch becoming blurred. Today it is feasible that a ie f Conversely, his opposite number, M USMC KC-130J ‘Harvest Hawk’ tanker/ a r s Herman Göring, was widely known h transport, equipped with small smart a

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then, do not translate to understanding g battle or campaign – the pilot on technological shifts, political nous or of an E-3D AWACS or the organisational acumen. battlespace commander in the So why is this changing now? Is this just rear cabin, directing fighters and a matter of fashionable diversity and HR box other assets and having a God’s ticking? Or are there structural, organisational and eye view of the airspace? Does a weapon system technological reasons why a chief of air staff need operator, sat in the back of a fast jet, peering at a not be a pilot? target through the ‘drinking-straw’ view targeting pod display, have a better understanding of the The changing role of the pilot collateral damage risks or is it perhaps a UAV sensor operator, who has been observing ‘patterns First – is that the role of the pilot, if not of life’ for the past weeks or months? Who is more diminishing, is changing. As noted previously, important to the war effort – a fighter pilot about to early aircraft required nerves of steel and high fire a missile to take a single enemy aircraft down levels of skills to fly, let alone fight. Today, or a cyber expert pressing ‘Enter’ on a keyboard aircraft are (on the whole) easy to fly – yet that disables an entire enemy air defence network difficult to fight. Pilots are now thus transitioning with a trojan? Moving to ‘multi-domain’ warfare from ‘aerial knights’ to mission operators and where a computer or AI assigns optimal targets battlespace managers, using data and sensors to pilots based on speed and efficiencies – rather to fight smart. ‘De-skilling’ of the pilot task is than a pilot shouting ‘Tally-Ho’ and diving into not a purely military phenomenon and is also a dogfight – may further weaken the individual occurring in the civil airline world, where the pilot’s role. The ‘information advantage’ then that relentless focus on cost and efficiency, coupled the individual pilot previously enjoyed is thus now with highly automated and ultra-reliable aircraft becoming more shared, diffused and networked. is (arguably) sucking some of the glamour out of Third – there are also larger demographic and the profession of airline pilots. social forces at work. While ‘pilot’ still retains its Technology has also shifted around from the allure as a high-status job, today’s and tomorrow’s military to the civil sector. Whereas, in 1940 a generations have changing expectations of Spitfire represented the cutting edge careers, flexibility, diversity and work-life balance. of technology – today many young pilots may be A 100 or 50 years ago the slogan ‘Join the Navy flying a 30-40 year old aircraft – and have more (or air force), See the world’ acted as an effective processing power available in their smartphone recruiting tool for earlier generations that lived than in their fighter. (For comparison as an in an era without TV or low-cost air travel. The inflection point, the Tornado, GR1 introduced in complexity of modern weapon systems and the 1983 featured a computer with 64k of memory. expansion of further education opportunities now The Commodore 64 home computer, arrived in means that recruits are arriving at a later stage August 1982). This too has changed the status in their life – with different expectations and of pilots as operating on the very limits of today’s commitments. Whereas in WW2, over 25 was seen technology. as ‘too old’ to be a squadron leader – because of

APRIL 2020 23

BreakingHUD20celing B A.indd 5 24/03/2020 14:13 DEFENCE Pilots and higher command

MoD BVR missile shots. All these above then mean that in the natural ‘friction’ and chaos of war, success of a mission will return once again to the skill, experience and bravery of a human(s) in the cockpit, able to see things first hand and use their superior decision-making ability to outthink the enemy, or come up with a plan that a computer would not even consider.

Conclusion

Lt. Thus, while the idea of ‘Top Gun’ Pe te ‘M a still catches the imagination v e r ic of many, the reality is that k ’

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a the quick reflexes needed and the intense tempo satellites, UAVs or even perhaps m of combat – this is when today’s pilot reaches the one day cyber, will still need to draw front line. Families, women and ‘whole force’ of on the daring, ethos and rapid decision-making regular, reserve and contractor support are now of earlier generations of fighter pilots. The OODA pushing armed forces to more reflect the societies (observe, orient, decide, action) loop, coined by a they defend. USAF fighter pilot, John Boyd, has now expanded Additionally, air forces are becoming much from a way of understanding dogfighting to other smaller than ever before in terms of piloted aircraft domains, including land, sea, cyber and even the – reducing the available pool of talent from which commercial and business strategy world. to draw future chiefs. As recently as 1991 the RAF In the fast moving, data-heavy world of today, had 36 fast jet squadrons – today it has six. UAV, the ‘information advantage’ is thus even more ISR analysts, cyber and space roles are on the critical for air forces to exploit – whatever the rise. In 2009, for example, the USAF trained more background of their leaders. Indeed, the rapid drone operators than both fighter and bomber development of aviation technology in the early pilots. Will these drone specialists, in 20 years’ years of air warfare has direct parallels in the rapid time, be tomorrow’s leaders? product cycle of today’s consumer and IT sector – where the average smartphone has a ‘service life’ The human in the cockpit of 2.75 years. While previous revolutions in ‘network-centric’ However, this is not to discount the human in the warfare have been promised, “the key difference cockpit – particularly at the most critical times. today”, notes AVM Gale, “is about time” – or Though limited in persistence compared to a UAV, synchronising ‘effects’ across multiple domains a fast-jet aircrew on the scene, can observe things (land, sea, air space and cyber) faster than your using the ‘Mk1 eyeball’ that potentially even then opponent can throw them (and keep them) off most high-resolution cameras will miss – such as balance. civilians inadvertently moving near a target that The challenges then in this (some would say is just about to be struck. On the scene they can long overdue) revolution are thus mainly cultural. steer the smart bomb away (and have done) saving Can the world’s oldest independent air arm break lives. In Afghanistan too, humans in fast jets, were through the ‘fighter/aircrew mafia’ mindset and able to employ ‘non-kinetic’ shows of force, using open up the top job to a wider and more diverse the speed and sheer sound of a fighter jet to deter set of talent and experience? It may be too soon, insurgents – a tactic unavailable to UAVs. as said to a USAF audience, to say that Meanwhile, weather too can obscure targets the era of the fighter pilot is over but it is certainly from satellites and sensors – requiring pilots to evolving in new directions. It is thus noteworthy dive under cloud to see their targets. Datalinks that, over the past 100 years, air forces’ leadership and communications can be jammed, hacked or has evolved based on the prevailing doctrines and simply fail – leaving the pilot alone in the cockpit technology – from WW1 pioneers, to the bomber like their WW1 forebears. Rules of engagement barons, to the fighter mafia. In the future will it be too may specify visual identification, rather than the turn of the UAV tribe, the orbital warriors or the cyber specialists? Chief of the Air Staff’s Air & Space Power Conference: – 15-16 July 2020, IET, London

24 AEROSPACE

BreakingHUD20celing B A.indd 6 24/03/2020 14:13 GENERAL AVIATION UK fixed-wing SAR 2Excel

King Airs to the rescue

The UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) recently brought into service two customised Beechcraft King Air 200s upgraded and equipped by commercial company 2Excel which greatly enhance the Agency’s maritime mission capability. BILL READ FRAeS reports from Doncaster-Sheffield airport.

irst formed 15 years ago by two (2EA) which comprises Capability Development, Above: On the day of AEROSPACE’s visit to RAF pilots, 2Excel currently employs Special Missions and Charter. The Charter division 2Excel, the plan had been 475 people at four bases at Sywell operates two VIP Boeing 737s based at London to see MCA’s latest King Air Aerodrome, Stansted Airport, Doncaster- Stansted and three turboprop Beechcraft King G-HMGA but the aircraft Sheffield Airport and Airfield. Air 200s based at Doncaster Sheffield Airport. was called away on a FThe company works across a range of industries, The company also operates The Blades aerobatic search and rescue mission. including defence and security, engineering, flying team which performs flying displays and Opposite page left: Mission events and disaster response. 2Excel has two provides aerobatic formation flying experiences for System display showing main divisions – 2 Excel Engineering (2EE) which passengers. The Special Missions division supplies multiple ship positions and images. specialises in maintenance, repair and overhaul a wide range of contract air services, including aerial Opposite page right: The (MRO) services for Boeing and Airbus narrow- dispersant and surveillance operations for the oil Blades display team is bodied aircraft, as well as King Air, PA31, PA28, and gas industry, as well as training for military air perhaps 2Excel’s best Islander and Cessna 406s; and 2Excel Aviation controllers. known arm.

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King20Airs B A.indd 3 24/03/2020 16:21 GENERAL AVIATION UK fixed-wing SAR 2Excel

UK Special mission modifications The primary sensor in the pod is a Seaspray 7300 radar from Leonardo. “We’re going to upgrade COMMERCIAL Fixed-wing assets can also be used for conducting to an Osprey 30 radar as soon as they become COMPANY wide area searches and co-ordinating helicopter available,” said Tones. “Leonardo can’t build these 2EXCEL assets. HM Maritime and Coastguard Agency things fast enough.” AGREED TO Commercial Director, Damien Oliver, explained how, The radar can be used in a number of different 18 months ago, the MCA launched a tender to modes. Flying at 26,000ft, the aircraft can use wide- SUPPLY TWO replace its aging aircraft. “We have an increasing area surveillance (WAS) mode to see over distances TWIN-ENGINE demand to support search and rescue (S&R) up to 200nm. “The radar works over 360º and can BEECHCRAFT missions,” he explained. detect a person in the water,” said Tones. Other KING AIR 200 On 19 March 2019 2Excel’s Special Missions modes include synthetic wide aperture radar which division won a five-year contract (with an optional two- can detect targets on the ground and an air-to-air AFTER WINNING year extension) from MCA to provide two customised mode that can detect other aircraft which is used A TENDER Beechcraft King Airs to use on UK Coastguard when vectoring helicopters to a rescue location. LAUNCHED missions. The first aircraft was rolled out on 19 The aircraft are also equipped with an Optimare November 2019. “The contract required a service with long wave infrared (IR) and ultraviolet (UV) line BY THE UK’S 95% availability,” explained Matt Tones, 2Excel’s Head scanner which can be used to detect hydrocarbons MARITIME AND of Surveillance. “The reason that the Beechcraft King in the water when the aircraft is being used on COASTGUARD Air was chosen as the mission platform was because a counter-pollution mission. There is also a HD AGENCY (MCA) it is a long-established and well supported design.” electro-optical sensor turret which can operate in “The work drew on expertise across 2Excel, both day and night conditions. including our Capability Development team,” added Other equipment includes a search and rescue Arnie Palmer, Director of 2Excel Special Missions. directional finding system which can detect any of “This included integrated design, manufacturing and the maritime directional frequencies and directional installation of the specialist mission equipment, as beacons and survivors’ location messages, so that well as training our crews to operate the aeroplane. the aircraft can fly directly towards anyone who “All the modification work on the King Airs was has got a problem. The aircraft can also detect conducted in-house, confirmed Matt Tones. “We automatic identification system (AIS) transponders did all the work on the aircraft here in Hangar 3 fitted to vessels. “We have a broadband satcom at Doncaster Airport, including design, production, system onboard allowing us to stream live video certification, and operation.” and other mission data to the MCA co-ordination centre,” said Tones. Capabilities The data from all the different sensors is integrated together by the aircraft’s mission system The two King Air 200s are fitted with a multi-spectral and can be displayed as a map showing the rescue surveillance suite, co-ordinated through an integrated aircraft’s position and track, together with locations mission control system. Some of the sensors are and information on other ships and aircraft. There fitted in a pod which can be attached onto the is also a broadband voice communications system aircraft. “Currently we move the pod from one aircraft designed for multi-agency communications. Using to another but both King Airs will soon get their own these integrated systems enhances crew situational set of sensors,” said Tones. awareness while reducing operator workload. 26 AEROSPACE

King20Airs B A.indd 4 24/03/2020 16:21 Above: The underside of King Air G-HMGB showing some of the new sensors but not the transferable sensor pod which was away flying on HMGA. Left: MCA’s second King Air G-HMGB seen here in 2Excel’s hangar at

2Excel Doncaster Airport.

Missions electro optical and IR sensor to identify it. We can then use the information from the AIS transponders The customised King Airs are used on a variety fitted to vessels to backtrack to see what ship has of missions, some of them reactive and some passed by recently. We can pass evidence onto the proactive. Search and rescue (SAR) can be MCA for investigation. When we detect oil spills, conducted up to the maximum range of the aircraft, we can’t tell what kind of oil it is from the air but we as well as fisheries patrol and counter pollution can laser scan it. To get more data about the oil, we missions, which are conducted within the UK need to send a vessel to put a sensor in the water.” Exclusive Economic Zone. One line of tasking from the King Airs is available, for deployment 24 hours Co-ordination a day, with crews working on 12-hour shifts (one daytime, one night-time). The aircraft are based at “All the flying we do is fed into CADS (Central 2Excel’s Doncaster Airport base which, although not Aviation Deconfliction System) which is run by the near the sea, has the advantage of being centrally military and which we can access through the MCA,” located which means that the aircraft can go Tones explained. “We recently had an open day anywhere in the UK. “The King Airs have a six-hour where the RAF P-8 Poseidon crews came to see endurance and we can fly distances of up to 400nm what we were doing and learn about our capabilities. away as far as 20º west longitude over the Atlantic,” The Aeronautical Rescue Coordination Centre said Tones. (ARCC) based at the National Maritime Operations The new fixed-wing aircraft work in conjunction Centre in Fareham in is responsible for with HM Coastguard’s helicopter fleet which are the tasking and co-ordination of this and all HMCG stationed at ten bases around the UK at Stornoway, aviation assets. The MCA also liaises with countries Sumburgh, Prestwick, Inverness, Humberside, which border the UK Search and Rescue region Caernarfon, St Athan, Lydd, Newquay and Lee-on- including France, The Netherlands, Belgium, Norway the-Solent. When conducting search and rescue and the Irish Coast Guard.” missions, the King Airs work co-operatively with the helicopters to effect a timely rescue. Enhanced capability Detecting oil spills By early February, the MCA King Airs had flown on 78 operational sorties and 200hrs of Another role for the MCA King Air is to detect reconnaissance, including SAR, fisheries patrol and pollution. “Shipping can report in to HM Coastguard counter pollution missions. “The new King Airs have if they spot something,” explained Tones. “Once a much enhanced capability, in that we can now go we get in the air, our radar can detect differences further, faster and higher than before,” said Tones. in sea conditions, so we can spot an object in the Concluding, Damien Oliver from MCA said: “We water from a long way off or, in the case of an oil are very pleased with the new capability and think spill, an unusually flat surface. Once we’ve detected that this will be a very valuable asset to search and an object in the water, we can fly over and use the rescue missions.”

APRIL 2020 27

King20Airs B A.indd 5 24/03/2020 16:21 SPACEFLIGHT Space debris and mega-constellations Warner Bros

Space debris a climate crisis for space? With satellite operators planning mega-constellations and nano-sats becoming ever more popular − are we running out of space in low Earth Orbit? TEREZA PULTAROVA looks at an environmental crisis for space

pace is far away and yet so close. Even though the reality might be comfortably A scene from the film Humankind depends on satellites for hidden from our sight, space has become infested Gravity showing space navigation, telecommunications, weather with junk. Defunct satellites disintegrate, empty debris hitting the satellite forecasting and many other applications. rocket stages explode, fragments hit other spacecraft, upon which the lead characters are working. Since the 1957 launch of the world’s first creating clouds of uncontrollable debris. According Ssatellite, the USSR’s Sputnik 1, humankind has to NASA, more than 500,000 pieces of debris are launched almost 9,000 objects into space. Some currently being tracked orbiting the Earth. For years of them, those launched into lower , have scientists have been sounding the alarm about the since been pulled back into the atmosphere and risk of the so-called Kessler syndrome, an out of burned. However, thousands of others, though no control accelerating cascade of collisions between longer functional, are still there, hurtling at speeds objects in space, which could ultimately render the of thousands of kilometres per hour, threatening space environment unusable. The scenario, named everything in their way. after the now retired NASA astrophysicist Donald

28 AEROSPACE

Space%20Debris%20B-3.indd 2 24/03/2020 15:10 Kessler who first predicted it in the late 1970s, provided inspiration for the 2013 film Gravity,

Insufficient mitigation measures IN SEPTEMBER A recent study by scientists from the University of LAST YEAR, Southampton has revealed that the space debris ESA SAID IT problem might, in fact, be even worse than previously HAD TO MOVE thought. ITS WIND- The research, led by Professor Hugh Lewis,

found that, at the current level of space activities, the Astroscale MONITORING amount of space debris will continue to grow over the SPACECRAFT next 1,000 years with collisions becoming more and AEOLUS AS IT more frequent. Even diligent compliance with existing mitigation guidelines will not thwart the trend. APPEARED ON “We used simulations to understand how the A COLLISION space debris population in low Earth orbit (LEO) COURSE WITH might respond to the number of satellites humans ONE OF THE are launching and the best space debris mitigation measures we can employ,” Professor Lewis said. “The STARLINK results from the simulations showed that the space

SATELLITES debris population – debris that is bigger than 10cm Astroscale – tended to grow at an accelerating rate with the assumptions we used. This exponential growth was driven by collisions taking place in the simulations at altitudes above 1,000km.” The researchers used a 3D computer model called DAMAGE, which simulates the evolution of the debris population by propagating the trajectories of the orbiting satellites and debris objects. The model identifies occurring collisions and calculates the number of resulting fragments, which then continue

on their own trajectories. Astroscale The simulation assumed humankind would Japan-headquartered start-up Astroscale, currently continue launching satellites into space at the same researching space debris removal, operates from the rate it did between 2011 and 2018. in-orbit servicing control centre at the UK Space “We used data provided by the European Space Applications Catapult in Harwell. Agency’s (ESA) Space Debris Office and essentially repeated this ‘cycle’ over and over,” said Professor Lewis. “In terms of the launch rate, it equated to about 170 new objects added to LEO each year lot would depend on the behaviour we assumed for on average. Only about 10% of those objects were the constellation operators. However, in broad terms, deployed at altitudes above 1,000km.” it would likely make it harder to rely on our existing The simulation also assumed that operators debris mitigation measures.” would diligently remove their spacecraft from orbit SpaceX, for example, has launched more than within 25 years from the end of each mission, as 120 of its Starlink internet-beaming satellites in requested by guidelines set forth by the Inter-Agency 2019 and submitted a spectrum application for a Space Debris Coordination Committee, and vent staggering 30,000 satellites. leftover fuel from spacecraft to prevent explosions. In September last year, ESA said it had to move its wind-monitoring spacecraft Aeolus as it appeared The mega-constellation problem on a collision course with one of the Starlink satellites. The rate of launching satellites into orbit, however, is ESA is no stranger to orbital mishaps. In August not expected to remain the same. It is set to increase 2016, a piece of debris about the size of a bullet, exponentially over the next decade, with the growth smashed a hole into one of the solar panels of the driven predominantly by companies such as SpaceX remote sensing satellite Sentinel-1, which is part of and OneWeb, which plan to operate constellations of the EU’s Copernicus Earth observation constellation. hundreds to thousands of satellites. The satellite was able to make up for the loss of “Adding large constellations will add considerable power but the situation could easily have had much variability into the results,” said Professor Lewis. “A more serious consequences.

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Space%20Debris%20B-3.indd 3 24/03/2020 15:10 SPACEFLIGHT Space debris and mega-constellations Astroscale

“If the two objects had met only two or three as many, or even more, satellites, as have been Above: Astroscale’s milliseconds earlier, we would have had an impact launched since the beginning of spaceflight. ELSA-d spacecraft is into the main body and that definitely would have “The satellites we have launched so far have designed to demonstrate technologies to approach had an effect,” said Holger Krag, Head of ESA’s left quite a lot of debris behind,” he said. “The orbital and capture orbital debris. Space Debris Office. “We would have probably lost environment is already quite degraded. If you have It is due to launch in 2020. one of the instruments or, if the tank was hit, we 10,000 new satellites, even with good reliability you might have lost the whole mission.” might leave behind hundreds of defunct objects, Mega-constellations, such as OneWeb and which can no longer be controlled.” SpaceX, have long been a concern for ESA space Krag said that satellites operating at lower debris experts. Krag says that despite the best altitudes are not that much of a concern, since intentions, mega-constellation operators likely residual atmosphere at these altitudes causes won’t be able to remove successfully 100% of their spacecraft to re-enter quite fast. The higher the satellites. Not because of ill intentions but simply orbit, the bigger the problem. “At 600km, the satellite because of technical failures. won’t stay for more than 25 years,” said Krag. “At “The operators have to manoeuvre the 800km, because the atmosphere is much thinner, it spacecraft into a lower orbit, where it would naturally would stay for 200 years. And at 1,000km, it would deorbit within 25 years,” said Krag. “But these stay forever.” manoeuvres have to be done at the end of a mission The Southampton University study, in fact, found when the spacecraft is already old. The older the that the amount of space debris will grow the most spacecraft, the less reliable it is and frequently it at altitudes above 1,000km. “The growth is slow: fails to perform this big disposal manoeuvre. Then it looks almost like there is no growth for the first the thing stays in space for a very long time.” Krag 200 years but the population is actually growing says that only about 60% of spacecraft currently from a starting size of about 20,000 objects at a deorbit successfully. rate of about five objects per year over that period,” “The problem with mega-constellations is that said Professor Lewis. “By the end of the 1,000-year they would have to have a much better success rate simulation, the total number of objects had doubled, in implementing these prevention measures than to about 40,000 objects on average. Moreover, more everybody else in order not to leave a lot of debris collisions could occur as a result of the deorbiting behind,” Krag said. “But why should we expect them manoeuvres, the study found”. to be more reliable than the spacecraft we have been flying so far? In fact, because they will have to Removing debris operate under commercial pressure, it will be even more difficult for them to comply.” Japan-headquartered start-up Astroscale, which has Krag points out that firms such as SpaceX recently set up an in-orbit servicing control centre intend to launch in a very short period of time at the UK Space Applications Catapult in Harwell,

30 AEROSPACE

Space%20Debris%20B-3.indd 4 24/03/2020 15:10 is one of the companies developing solutions that Billed as the first mission to remove an item of could potentially enable removing malfunctioning debris from orbit, the spacecraft will use four robotic satellites from orbit using a robotic junk-collector arms to capture the 100kg (Vega Secondary spacecraft. Payload Adapter) upper stage, which was left in an The company plans to carry out the world’s first approximately 800km by 660km altitude orbit after commercial active debris removal demonstration, the the second flight of ESA’s small launcher Vega back End-of-Life Service by Astroscale mission (ELSA-d), in 2013. in mid-2020. The object was chosen, according to ESA, for its The mission will consist of two simple shape and sturdy construction. spacecraft – a 180kg chaser, built by a The mission will test new technologies company in Tokyo, and a 20kg target, and pave the way for future more built by SSTL in Guildford. The two will complex orbital debris removal be launched together as a stack and missions. separate once in orbit. “NASA and ESA studies show that The chaser is packed with GOVERNMENTS the only way to stabilise the orbital sophisticated navigation technology and OF THE environment is to actively remove large carries a magnetic capture mechanism, COUNTRIES debris items,” Luisa Innocenti, Head which will pull the target, fitted with a WHERE of ESA’s Clean Space initiative, said magnetic docking plate, back to the in a press release. “Accordingly, we chaser. THOSE SPACE will be continuing our development “We will perform the capture twice,” COMPANIES of essential guidance, navigation and said John Auburn, Chief Commercial ARE control technologies and rendezvous Officer and Director, UK, at Astroscale. REGISTERED and capture methods through a new “First, we let the target float away in project called Active Debris Removal/ a stable position to a distance of only ARE In-Orbit Servicing – ADRIOS”. about 10 to 20 metres and we capture ULTIMATELY it only to test the capture mechanism. RESPONSIBLE Regulations Then we release it again and let it Governments of the float away to a distance of about 100 FOR WHAT countriesAstroscale’s where Auburn those says that the metres. It will start tumbling so the HAPPENS IN spacecreation companies of governmental are regulations second capture will be much more SPACE. registeredthat would arerequire ultimately operators to ‘clean complicated because we will have to responsibleup’ after themselves for what would be key manoeuvre around the target without John Auburn happensnot only for in spacemaintaining order in the crashing into it.” Chief Earth’s orbits but also for facilitating the The idea is, Auburn explained, for a Commercial development of active debris removal future chaser to be able to release the Officer and as a commercial service. captured satellite at a lower altitude and “Governments of the countries return for another piece of junk. Director, where those space companies are The company has been working Astroscale registered are ultimately responsible with OneWeb and ESA as part of the for what happens in space,” Auburn Sunrise Public-Private Partnership on said. “They have to make it part of their a technology that would enable efficient removal of licensing requirements for operators to remove defunct satellites from orbit. their spacecraft at the end of a mission. The ideal “The idea is that future satellites, such as those scenario would be a ‘traceless future’ where you of OneWeb, would be equipped with magnetic plates bring down everything you launch, and no trace compatible with our system,” Auburn said. “With this remains.” demonstration we will prove that we can capture a Krag said that, fortunately, international players tumbling satellite and eventually we hope to do an seem to understand the problem and take seriously in-orbit demonstration with a OneWeb satellite.” the threat that space debris now poses to the use of At the 2019 ministerial conference in Seville, the valuable resource that is space. Spain, ESA committed to fly its own space debris ESA previously proposed a range of solutions removal mission in 2025. The mission, called including a sustainability rating system, which would ClearSpace-1, will be developed by a consortium assess the potential impact of each satellite on the led by a Swiss start-up, Clear Space, a spin-off from orbital environment before it is launched. Objects the Swiss technical university Ecole Polytechnique found too risky might then have to be modified or Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL). have their mission design changed to pose less risk.

RemoveDEBRIS: An in-orbit demonstration of technologies for the removal of space debris – G.S. Aglietti The Aeronautical Journal, Volume 124, Issue 1271

APRIL 2020 31

Space%20Debris%20B-3.indd 5 24/03/2020 15:10 SHOW REPORT Singapore Air Show 2020 2Excel Aviation The show must go on With the Singaporean Government declaring a Coronavirus Orange 'Sport' eVTOL health alert on the eve of the exhibition – it was a very different launched atmosphere at the Singapore Air Show on 11-16 February.

Over at the What's TIM ROBINSON and BILL READ report. Next innovation Nearly 20 years ago, the events of 9/11 made for a Textron Aviation and Viking Air. Other companies section of the show, muted air show in Dubai in November 2001 – with meanwhile, scaled down their presence or relied local company Neo some companies and visitors staying away. This year on local staff. Concerns over coronavirus also hit Aeronautics launched a it was the turn of the Singapore Air Show which, the conference schedule. The Aviation Leadership new one-person ‘sport’ in the wake of the spread of the Coronavirus, saw Summit, on Monday 10 and the Singapore eVTOL – the Crimson last-minute cancellations from exhibitors and visitors Aerospace Technology & Engineering Conference S8-SR sport. Looking – most notably from the US. Though Singapore (SATEC) were also cancelled. like a cross between restricted visitors from China and the air show a 1930 open-wheel organisers implemented extra precautions – the race car and Star Wars Singapore set to acquire F-35B heightening of the health risk level to ‘orange’ in pod racer, this eVTOL, the country undoubtedly put some off and this year Biggest news for Singaporean defence watchers a development of a made for a subdued show in terms of attendees and ahead of the show was that the country had received single-person air taxi news. Back then, of course, the outbreak was seen a green light for acquisition of Lockheed Martin F-35 the company is also as a regional health risk – rather than the global stealth fi ghters from the US State Department – working on, is aimed pandemic we see now as AEROSPACE goes to boosting its already impressive frontline fi ghter force at being certifi cated to press. Let’s take a look at the highlights. of F-16 and F-15SGs. Singapore is set to buy just FAA Part 103 – which four jets initially to test the water, before a potential means that a pilot's follow-on order of a further eight. Interestingly, licence is not needed Exhibitors MIA these are for the F-35B STOVL variant – as fl own to fl y it. Endurance Because of concerns over the spread of the by the US Marine Corps, UK and Italian Navy – with is 20mins, with the Coronavirus, a number of exhibitors pulled out. The Japan also set to acquire the 'B' version to give S8-SR sport able to show organisers reported that over 70 companies its helicopter carriers a fi xed-wing punch. As a reach 100km/hr. The withdrew – equivalent to 8% of the total exhibitors. tiny city-state, the RSAF already practises fi ghter company aims to begin The list included: CATIC, ALA Corporation, operations from road bases to thwart attackers – fl ight testing of this Bombardier, CAE, Canada, GIFAS, and the fl exibility of the STVOL F-35B, to operate vehicle in the US in Gulfstream, Lockheed Martin, Leonardo, South from austere and non-traditional bases make it likely April. Korea’s Black Eagles aerobatic team, Stemme, that this survivability played a part in the selection.

28 AEROSPACE While Lockheed Martin itself stayed away, this year’s aircraft operators and OEMs. Singapore Air Show also saw the appearance of a This was followed by two technical forums, Unveiled at the air USMC F-35B in the flying display for the first time. one looking at the potential of digitalisation and was Israel Aerospace artificial intelligence (AI) in the aerospace industry Industries (IAI) Digitisation and sustainability lead and the second on sustainable options for reducing MkII UAV. The new leaders' agenda aviation’s carbon footprint. Speakers included CTOs version of the MALE and other technical experts from Boeing, Airbus, UAV almost doubles the Ahead of the show saw the biennial Singapore Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney, Safran, Hexcel, endurance from 24hrs Aerospace Technology Leadership Forum SIA Engineering, ST Engineering and Thales and to 45hrs. (SATLF) organised by the Singapore Agency for covered such topics as digital twins, machine Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) learning, virtual materials testing, UAV inspections, and the Association of Aerospace Industries the use of robots and wearable technology in MRO, (Singapore). The theme this year was Digital digital flight management systems, recruitment, Aviation and Aerospace Sustainability and began certification for AI-enabled systems, sustainable with a presentation from Chan Chun Sing from the growth, different ways to meet CO2 reduction Singapore Ministry for Trade and Industry, outlining targets, hybrid and all-electric aircraft, hydrogen- his vision for Singapore’s aerospace industry in the powered aircraft, biofuels and synthetic fuels and future. One of his future aims is for Singapore to battery technology. become a safe harbour for technology and talent The general conclusion of the conference was open for partnership with all organisations and optimistic in that aviation could rise to the challenge institutions, including the development of Singapore of reducing CO2 emissions, provided everyone in Virus outbreak hub as an ‘honest broker’ for digital data sharing for the sector worked together to bring it about. precautions A number of increased precautionary measures were put in place by the Unveiled by Airbus in Singapore on the first official day of the show was MAVERIC (Model Aircraft for organisers as a result Validation and Experimentation of Robust Innovative Controls) – a subscale demonstrator for a ultra-green of the Coronavirus blended-wing body (BWB) airline that could cut fuel burn by up to 20% compared to existing single-aisle outbreak. These include aircraft. MAVERIC's voluminous interior, meanwhile, would open up new possibilities in cabin layout and 'no-contact' greetings space. The concept has already flown as a 3.2m wingspan subscale prototype in 2019, with flight testing (bowing or hand waving to wrap up in Q2 of this year. Says Jean-Brice Dumont, EVP Engineering Airbus: "By testing disruptive instead of shaking aircraft configurations, Airbus is able to evaluate their potential as viable future products. Although there is hands), temperature no specific time line for entry-into-service, this technological demonstrator could be instrumental in bringing scanning of all visitors, about change in commercial aircraft architectures for an environmentally sustainable future for the aviation hand sanitisers industry.” Though he observed that BWB airliner designs were not new, he said that today it was “high everywhere and medics time to study and push this technology further”. Dumont refused to be drawn on the exact seat count that at the show for anyone MAVERIC was aiming for – but noted it was better to 'start small'. The concept, he said, does scale in size reported to be feeling and interestingly allows for a much smaller footprint at airports than an equivalent single-aisle aircraft. Inside, unwell. Seated events too, the BWB offers opportunities to use the massive volume to create new levels of comfort for passengers. also featured cards Could a B-2 flying-wing style configuration be a potential A320neo replacement one day? to trace attendees. The organisers also reduced visitor numbers Airbus reveals MAVERIC BWB demonstrator on the public days at

Airbus the weekend by 50% in order to control the number of people on the site. Singapore Air Show

APRIL 2020 29 SHOW REPORT Singapore Air Show 2020

Airpower out in force Blackshape Gabriel BK-160 gets set for ramp-up While it has reduced attendance by senior officers and Pentagon officials, the US has spared no effort Making its Asia-Pacific debut here at Singapore in sending almost every type available from Pacific was the Gabriel BK-160 – a dedicated trainer and Air Forces command. As well as F-22 and F-35Bs light COIN development of the Blackshape Prime. in the flying display (both appearing at the air show The Prime, a sleek, composite GA aircraft from Italy for the first time) the static display included the has been turning heads with private pilots since Boeing P-8A Poseidon, KC-135 tanker, F/A-18E 2010, thanks to its sleek military trainer tandem Rare visitors Superhornet, AH-1Z, UH-1Y helicopters and two looks. Now the company has taken the logical step MV-22 Ospreys from the USMC, C-17 airlifter and of developing dedicated civil and military trainer bolster military a MQ-9 Reaper UAV. versions of the Prime, as well as an ISR version and presence As might be expected, the Republic of an optionally piloted version. In 2016, it even landed Singapore Air Force too put on an extensive (and took off) the Prime on the Italian aircraft On display were two display on its air power – including F-16Ds, carrier Cavour. rarely seen F-5s from F-15SGs and taking pride of place, a new A330 Meanwhile the beefed-up Gabriel BK-160 the Royal Thai Air Force MRTT tanker – which was delivered in 2018. features a 160hp Lycoming piston, giving it the (RTAF). Now upgraded The flying display also included a display by capability to carry four laser-guided missiles as a into F-5TH Super China's PLAAF 1st August aerobatic team, flying light-strike/COIN attacker. Blackshape says that Tigres these have their J-10 fighters. A late addition to the flying using a piston, gives it the fraction of the cost of modernised with new display, special scanning precautions were put in a turboprop trainer/COIN aircraft. Though the avionics and the ability place for the team and its ground crew. company is coy about big deals in the pipeline, it to carry the IRIS-T revealed that it is ramping up production with the missile as equips RTAF ATR wins STOL 42-600S order capability of producing more than one a week. Gripens. They are now expected to soldier on There was a rare commercial news story from ST Engineering reveals aircraft for another decade. ATR which announced the sale of three ATR 42- carrier concept Meanwhile, the 600S short take-off and landing (STOL) regional Royal Malaysian Air turboprops to Papua New Guinea operator PNG Air. In Asia-Pacific, the aircraft carrier is undergoing Force brought not The 40-seat -600S will be capable of taking off and something of a renaissance – with Japan, South only an Airbus A400M landing on airstrips as short as 800m in length. Korea and now Singapore all either developing or but also a Sukhoi Su-30MKM fighter – armed to the teeth with four Kh-31 anti-ship missiles, R77 air-to-air The Force is strong with this eVTOL missiles and wingtop ECM pods.

A welcome order announcement came from Korean Air for Pratt & Whitney Spotted on the stand of Japan's Industry Network was this three-month old concept for a single person, PW1100G engines to tailsitter eVTOL called Cocooon X-1. Looking like a cross between an X-wing, TIE Fighter or Babylon 5 power its fleet of up to StarFury, the company says the configuration was chosen thanks to its good stability on the ground – along 50 Airbus A321neos. with high speeds in the cruise and lift from the four wings. Speed is 100-200km/hr with 30mins endurance.

30 AEROSPACE Boeing

Boeing Australia Singaporean aircraft completes first Loyal lessor BBAM placed an ‘ order for three Boeing Wingman’ fuselage 737-800 converted freighters. The lessor is one of the biggest Meanwhile in Australia, Boeing Australia operators of 737NGs – announced it has completed assembly of the first with the conversions to fuselage for the Royal Australian Air Force's Loyal come from its existing Wingman Airpower Teaming System (ATS). Three fleet. This brings prototypes of this large (38ft long) 2,000nm range the number of 737- combat drone are under development for the 800BCF orders up to RAAF. The aircraft is the first military aircraft to be 130. developed in Australia in over 50 years.

mulling carriers to project air power. At the show, as removing seatback IFE in economy) and Singapore's ST Engineering revealed a concept maintaining comfort. First services will be to for a 14,500t Endurance 160 Landing Platform Bangkok and Seoul from Tokyo's Narita Airport, Dock or (LPD) helicopter carrier. Though the ship with the aim to move on to trans-pacific services. Wheelchair- is currently configured as a helicopter carrier – the friendly toilet design could well be tweaked now that Singapore Civil aircraft drop out One innovation has committed itself to the STOVL version of the showcased by ST Lockheed Martin F-35B. It is notable, for example, The cancellation by some companies and reduction Engineering is a design that Japan's 19,500t Izumo helicopter carrier was in attendance by others saw a drop in numbers of for a wheelchair-friendly future-proofed at the design stage to be able to around 10-15 aircraft in the static display – most accessible aircraft toilet. operate up to 12 F-35Bs. Will Singapore also take notably with big gaps due to Airbus and Textron Tardis-like, the toilet is its F-35Bs to sea? (Cessna). Commercial aircraft in the static park this larger on the inside than year were thus few and far between, consisting the space it takes up of an ATR 72-600 from Bangkok Airways and Jewel in Changi's crown on the outside – as it an Embraer E195 E2 regional jet – making its can be expanded when It’s not often you linger at an airport after arriving Asia-Pacific debut in its special 'Tech Lion' livery. it needs to be used. to see its scenic attractions but the AEROSPACE Business jets were represented by a Honda The facility requires the editorial team took the opportunity after touching Jet Elite, Dassault Falcon 8X, Dassault Falcon assistance of a member down at Singapore to visit Changi’s Airport’s latest 2000LXS and a mock-up of the cabin of the new of cabin crew to pull new building – the breathtaking Jewel nature- Dassault Falcon 6X. forward and open the themed entertainment and retail complex, first door but contains opened in April last year. Linked to three passenger Asia-Pacific fixed-wing defence sufficient space inside terminals, the S$1.7bn Jewel features a 10-storey market to hit $150bn for a basic wheelchair retail and hotel area surrounding a spectacular used for disabled five-storey terraced indoor rainforest with the A new forecast from Defence Insight has revealed passengers on aircraft. centrepiece of the world’s tallest indoor waterfall. that the Asia-Pacific defence market for fixed- STE says that it is wing combat aircraft is set to hit $150bn over the currently marketing the next ten years – driven by China's increasing air ZIP aims to sew up Pacfic low-cost concept to airlines. long haul power capabilities and investments in stealth, airlift and UAVs. The region is now the second-largest Over at Boeing, a joint press conference between military aircraft market in the world – with spending it, Japan Air Lines and its new spin-off ZIPAIR being forecast to peak in 2024 at $82bn annually. provided an update on a new Tokyo-based low-cost long haul airliner. Set to commence operations on SpaceJet shows off revamped cabin 14 May with two Boeing 787-8s donated by its parent airline, ZIPAIR is aiming to create a new There was a revamped cabin mock-up of the niche between full service legacy airlines and long-awaited Mitsubishi SpaceJet (formerly the budget carriers – for passengers travelling on MRJ) which has recently announced the sixth their own budget. The airline has configured its postponement in development of the M90 variant 787-8s to 290 seats, (18 lie flat/272 economy) to 2021 due to delays with certification related to with special emphasis on weight saving (such avionics and electrical wiring.

APRIL 2020 31 AEROSPACE Global Megatrends forum

Wings of change

EDWARD PINNEGAR reports on the Global Megatrends and Aviation Forum: co-creating visions for the future of the industry, held at the RAeS on 14-15 November 2019.

n a world of rampant short-termism and frank, no holds barred approach to the issues. specialisation, it seems more difficult than ever The objective: to co-create visions of aviation and to zoom out and to think longer-term. A rising aerospace to 2040 which were plausible, relevant tide of current threats – political upheaval, and challenging. Round-table discussions took extreme weather, design problems – require place under vast A2 whiteboards, and it was these Iattention now, not in 2040. Yet aviation is, by which proved the real battlegrounds. On them a necessity, a long-term business – so making good mêlée of post-it notes and board markers their decisions still means thinking ahead. numbers swelling with reinforcements, battled for supremacy in the stakes of which might prove most Frank debate and high-level influential in the decades to come. networking The visions which emerged triumphant from this papery battle were certainly challenging. If Following publication, by ASI, of the book, Global you picked up your copy of AEROSPACE this Megatrends: A Path to Future-Wise Organisation, month hoping for a ray of April sunshine, you might by Pierre Coutu et al of Aviation Strategies have flicked to the wrong page – the forecast for International, the Royal Aeronautical Society 2040 was not one of unclouded optimism – but collaborated with ASI to host a forum on global forewarned is often forearmed, and megatrends megatrends and their importance for aviation usually create winners as well as losers. and aerospace. The two-day event was attended by industry leaders from 46 countries, including What are the Megatrends? Nigeria, India, Germany and China, with preparatory work including 35 open-ended interviews with The participants’ preliminary perceptions were that other prominent figures in aviation and aerospace the most influential megatrends were likely to be from around the world. climate change, changing consumer demands and The emphasis was squarely on quality over passenger attitudes, technological innovations, quantity, high-level networking and real depth. continued urbanisation and the rise of megacities,

Chatham House rules prevailed to encourage a and global power shifts from West to East. Later, Office Ukrainian President’s

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Wings of Change.indd 2 24/03/2020 13:52 With E7 GDP likely to be double that of the G7 by 2040, Asian economies will continue to be enriched by an increased ability to create valuable intellectual property, in particular through their research laboratories and universities. Governments looking to shift their economies up the value chain will continue to make substantial investments in research and innovation. The implications for aviation and aerospace are clear: more home-grown aircraft and components, more competition and more opportunities. These phenomena, along with a fragmented response to climate change, are likely to mean slower or no growth for aviation in the West, just as it continues to rocket in the East – a prediction heavily contingent on the speed of breakthroughs in electrification, materials and aerodynamics. For passengers, a more automated and seamless experience will be made possible by the use of AI and blockchain technology, whose application will be accelerated by fast ageing populations and by increasingly automated and globally centralised air traffic control. However, this exposes aviation to more threats from cyber-attacks and wars, both of which have the potential to cause huge disruption to systems whose greatest virtue – interconnectedness, gives rise to their greatest vice – interdependence. Disruption to operations from extreme weather and flooding, made more frequent by climate change, is also likely to have greater effects. the groups developed six perspectives which covered a spectrum of outcomes, where the Rising risks? extremes were generally defined by the degree Chatham House of fragmentation in the rules-based international The different visions painted a picture of contrasts rules made for order, and the implications of a lack of co-operation – of East vs West, fragmented responses to climate honest debate in addressing climate change. change and an international system eroded by cherry- The consequences of such a fragmentation picking, bilaterialism and trade wars. But the frame between high- were subtle for some groups, for others more to that picture was almost always climate change. level attendees. stark. The underlying assumption, that the success With sufficient and speedy action, the benefits of new of global aviation and aerospace rests on an technology and markets provide huge opportunities. international commonality of approach, remained If global temperatures continue to rise unabated, broadly unchallenged. Moreover, for some groups, risks to aviation – from conflicts over resources, more a badly fragmented scenario would still see frequent extreme weather and flooding, distorted aviation find a path of least resistance, whereas regional responses and the pressures they will place for others it was more easily thwarted. In particular, upon an already strained international system – will air traffic management, aircraft certification and be far greater. reliable access to airspace are some of the many Last year, BBC Archive released interview aspects which underpin international air transport. footage of schoolchildren from 1966, who were International initiatives to regulate the aviation asked to predict what the world would look like in the sector’s carbon emissions, particularly after the year 2000. They foretold over-population, automation, end of the UN’s CORSIA programme in 2035, sea level rises, unemployment due to automation – could prove impossible should the international and racial equality. But many of the racier and more order continue to weaken. International agreement dystopian predictions, of cabbage pills for breakfast, on the mechanisms to achieve and enforce the the burning out of the sun and of robot courts, have targets agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement, not (yet) come to pass. Those children did not end which are fundamental to their success, have yet to up enduring a robot-dominated dystopia, and we A breakdown in emerge. As power continues to shift from West to are even worse at controlling the future than we are the rules-based East, aviation in 2040 – as much as global politics at second-guessing it. However, some certainties and economics – will be influenced by how rising remain: leaders still have choices, and the trends that international powers choose to engage with, disengage from or prove most influential tomorrow are determined most order? reshape international institutions in their own image. of all by what we do today.

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Wings of Change.indd 3 24/03/2020 13:52 SPACE RAeS Space Group: Space missions for 2020 Space 2020 A look ahead

The RAeS Space Specialist Group looks ahead to the most significant crewed and uncrewed missions and space news this year.

here’s a lot going on in 2020. Mars rovers (several), new launchers (several), Lunar landers (several) and communications satellites (literally hundreds of them). Among all this activity, the UK Tis undergoing something of a transformation for the space industry. With Brexit, comes a change of relationship with the Copernicus surveillance programme and an exit from the Galileo satnav programme. Alongside, and partly in response to, these changes, the UK Government is pressing ahead with work on a range of fronts: a new climate science mission, a possible national navigation programme, ongoing plans for launch from the British mainland and the next generation of MoD satellite communications are all taking shape. Be cautious before concluding that the boom years are here for UK space though. One Earth observation (EO) mission does not a summer make, and the mooted navigation system remains a prospect only. In its absence, the reduced role of the UK in European Union (EU) space programmes will be felt keenly by our industry. If there was ever a time for ambition at the UK Space Agency (UKSA), this is it.

Launchers

There is a lot of new launch technology coming on stream in 2020. Virgin’s LauncherOne enters operations this year. Slung under the wing of a modified 747 named , it will be launched over the Pacific to demonstrate their new ‘small-sat’ launch capability. The approach opens the possibility for ‘pick-up points’ all around the world (including the UK’s Newquay airport), from which Cosmic Girl can proceed to a launch zone over the ocean. We can also look forward to the of Europe’s VEGA ‘C’, India’s (SSLV), the American Alpha and the new ‘B’ variant of China’s Long March 5. Long March 5 successfully returned to flight at the end of 2019, proving a vital capability for China’s ambitions in manned spaceflight, lunar sample return and Mars exploration. The 5B variant will demonstrate capability for high-mass launches into LEO. It is first payload will be a prototype crew capsule (uncrewed).

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Space 2020.indd 2 24/03/2020 16:11 With so much focus on launchers, you might Minister Modi, ahead of India’s 75th anniversary of imagine that launch numbers were already at record independence, in 2022. highs. Not so. In 2019, there were 97 successful Finally, the possibility of a 2020 launch for launches; part of an increasing trend in recent years NASA’s new super-heavy Space Launch System but still fewer than in any year from 1965 to 1990. (SLS) seems to have slipped out of the year. Its first The year also saw five launch failures; one European flight – for the Artemis 1 mission – is intended to VEGA, two Iranian launchers (including a pad demonstrate a launch capability for a US return to explosion), a new Chinese launcher (OS-M1) and a the Moon. Meanwhile, despite losing a prototype Long March 4C. That is a comparable failure rate to Starship test vehicle in a fuel tank implosion during 1979, in which 105 launches went as planned and ground testing in March, SpaceX is still aggressively five failed. Rocket science is well established. Rocket aiming to conduct the first flight of its superheavy engineering remains as challenging as ever. Starship this year. 2020 may be much busier. SpaceX alone forecasts around 35 launches, joined by some 40 Navigation launches each from China and Russia, with other US, European, Japanese and Indian launches The deployment of the US GPS Block III satellites adding to a total which may exceed 150. Around continues through the year, as the constellation is 25 of the Russian and US launches are in pursuit upgraded to provide new and improved services and of communications mega-constellations (Starlink capabilities. via Falcon9; OneWeb via Soyuz) putting around Meanwhile, the UK will officially depart both the 1,000 new spacecraft in orbit. It could be the busiest EU and the Galileo programme. Last year, the UK launch year ever. Government announced exploratory work towards developing its own sovereign capability. Does the country need another Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)? Strong opinions are held on both This year, the US plans to end its long absence from sides of the debate. GNSS systems – of which GPS human space launch. Both Boeing (Starliner) and is the most well-known – now underpin our armed SpaceX (Crew Dragon) intend to make their first forces and a substantial fraction of our economy. The crewed launches in 2020. Either will put the US UK is now the only permanent member of the UN back in the picture for getting astronauts to and from security council without a controlling stake in its own the International (ISS) – and both will GNSS (noting France as a central partner in Galileo). provide a competitive market for doing so. As of mid- The central question is indeed one of March 2020, Boeing’s Starliner is trailing SpaceX sovereignty. Is it right for the UK to depend on in the race to put US astronauts back in space with foreign powers for permission to deploy and operate US hardware having suffered a hitch in an uncrewed its military forces? test flight in December Through its earlier contributions to Galileo, the A similar double act – Virgin Galactic and Blue UK demonstrated capabilities in many of the key Origin – is lined up for suborbital tourism. Virgin technology areas. Building its own system would be Galactic made their first ‘test passenger’ launch of a ‘coming of age’ for the national space capability SpaceShipTwo in 2019. The first paying customers and a bold assertion of ‘Global Britain’ (and Northern should lift off this year, back to a runway- Ireland!) landing. ’s takes a more It remains for the newly-empowered UK ‘old school’ approach with a capsule and parachutes. Government to decide how bold it wishes to be Both are fully reusable launch systems and both – and where GNSS sits in the long list of budget will carry up to six passengers per trip. For those priorities, post-Brexit. with deep enough pockets, why choose? You can fly X-15-style one week, then Apollo-style the next. Earth observation Blue Origin is a little behind Virgin Galactic in getting to market. First crewed flights have not yet Three French national EO missions are scheduled to taken place – but they have already established a fly this year (Pleiades-NEO 1 & 2 – and TARANIS). positive track record. The same capsule and booster Sentinel-6A (sometimes pronounced ‘Jason-CS A’) have been re-used several times over. The price of will also launch, extending the long-running Jason a ticket has also not yet been published, whereas series of collaborative missions. Launch by NOAA, Virgin Galactic’s $200,000 sticker price has been operations by EUMETSAT, instrument contributions widely touted by Sir and his team. from CNES (and others), spacecraft by ESA and India’s Gaganyaan crew capsule may make a recurring unit co-funding from the EU. When so debut (uncrewed) flight, late this year, atop the GSLV many organisations pull together, you can be sure Mark 3 launcher. If all goes to plan, a first crewed that the mission products are in demand. flight could take place in 2021. Doing so would Here in the UK, the seeds of a major new meet a high-profile commitment made by Prime climate science mission are growing. At the recent

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Space 2020.indd 3 24/03/2020 16:11 SPACE RAeS Space Group: Space missions for 2020

ESA Ministerial in November 2019, UKSA proposed NASA, ESA & Roscosmos, China’s CNSA and initial work on the TRUTHS mission (‘Traceable even the UAE were originally aiming at Mars this Radiometry Underpinning Terrestrial- and Helio- summer. Studies’). Most EO science missions depend upon a However, ESA has announced that the launch complex series of ongoing calibration and validation of its Rosalind Franklin rover has now been delayed activities, linking measurements from space with to 2022, due to extra time needed to double check ‘ground truth’ measurements at test sites. TRUTHS systems. The worldwide Coronavirus too has aims to carry its own SI-traceable calibration source impacted the mission timeline. The ESA lander has on-board. Doing so lets it fulfil two missions. As been integrated in the UK by Airbus Defence and well as collecting its own measurements of Earth’s Space. It will be brought to the surface by Russia’s energy balance, its data can be used to improve lander, (‘Little Cossack’). the analysis of products from other EO missions; a Despite being at the epicentre of the virus win-win scenario leading to more effective climate outbreak, China’s Mars mission is still aiming to launch change monitoring. If the mission proceeds to in July of this year using a Long March 5 rocket. production, the UK expects to undertake the lion’s China’s first solo interplanetary mission, it will deploy share of the work. a small rover. Meanwhile, Mars Hope will be the UAE’s first Communications foray into deep , carried aloft by a Japanese launcher. The orbiter is fitted with a range Starlink and OneWeb are perhaps as notable for of atmospheric observation instruments for Martian the size of their constellations as they are for the climate study. communication services they bring. Perhaps the most eye-catching feature of these SpaceX’s Starlink starts the year with around missions is the small Mars-copter to be deployed by 240 satellites in orbit – but they have barely begun. the as-yet unnamed NASA rover. A competition is With each new launch, another 60 are being run to name the rover, with results due in March. added to the constellation. Thousands are yet to Rover McRoverFace seems an unlikely result! launch, with SpaceX aiming for fortnightly launches Closer to home, China’s Chang’e 5 mission until the job is done. could bring back the first lunar surface samples OneWeb’s targeted constellation of 650 seems for over 40 years. In 2019, its predecessor conservative by comparison. Batches of 32 satellites mission (Chang’e 4) performed the first ever will be going up to their intended 1,200km orbits landing on the Lunar farside, deploying a on Soyuz this year. As these mega-constellations rover which communicated with the Earth enter commercial operation, attention will naturally via a relay satellite positioned far beyond move to the viability of the services they offer. the Moon. Successfully bringing back lunar Communications is a competitive market. The next samples and putting a rover on Mars, in the few years will show how effectively mega-LEO same year, would be an undeniable coup for systems can hold their own. China’s rapidly developing space programme. Rocket Labs and the Indian Chandrayaan 3 may Beyond GEO… also join the Chinese on the Moon. It seems to be a year for doing things ‘together’. Roughly every two years, the solar systems line up ESA Solar Orbiter (also integrated in the UK, in a way that makes it a bit easier to get to Mars. As alongside the ExoMars rover) will be launched this a result, Mars missions are like London buses. You year for a long journey towards the sun. Meanwhile, wait ages for one to come, then four come along at Japan’s Hayabusa 2 will return to Earth bearing the same time. samples taken during its time in the Asteroid belt.

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Space 2020.indd 4 24/03/2020 16:11 Afterburner www.aerosociety.com

National Aerospace Library Sound and Video Archive pp 50-51

The Apollo 15 Command and Service Module Endeavour as viewed from the Lunar Module Falcon. Command Module Pilot Al Worden remained on Endeavour while David Scott and James Irwin descended to the Lunar surface in Falcon. Al Worden’s lecture to the Society is now available in the Society’s audio archive, see pp 50-51. Sadly, Col Worden passed away in March. NASA.

42 Message from RAeS 44 Book Reviews 50 NAL Sound Archive – President Junkers Ju 52/3m, One Nation, Under Drones, The A timely update on the National Aerospace Library Merlin and The Defeat of the Zeppelins. Sound Archive, a real ‘Who’s Who’ of aviation “With the clock ticking towards the end of my personalities and historical subjects based on Presidential year, I have taken the opportunity recently original recordings held in the Library’s archives. to visit several of the Society’s local Branches and 48 Library Additions attend some of their Named Lectures and events.” Books submitted to the National Aerospace Library. 53 Meggitt Lecture – Chief Executive 49 Man Up! Women who stepped into a The Coventry Branch Meggitt Lecture was delivered by Salvatore Ippedico, Meggitt AR&T Engineer, on “Slightly overshadowed by other news but welcome Man’s World the subject of: ‘Meggitt’s Step Change Thermal nevertheless, British Science Week was launched in Systems Technology’. early March. Business Secretary, Aok Sharma, and Four of the Library’s early 18th century ballooning lithographs have been loaned to Chawton House for Education Secretary, Gavin Williamson, announced Obituary funding of £179m to support up to 2,200 students its 2020 exhibition. 54 through 41 Doctoral Training Partnerships.” Alec Graham Collins.

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Afterburner_April2020.indd 3 24/03/2020 12:03:35 Message from RAeS OUR PRESIDENT

Prof Jonathan Cooper With the clock ticking towards the end of my Presidential year, I have taken the opportunity recently to visit several of the Society’s local Branches and attend some of their Named Lectures and events. These have included: the Sir Arthur Marshall Lecture in Cambridge, the Meggitt Lecture in Coventry, the Templer Lecture in Farnborough, the Henson & Stringfellow Lecture in Yeovil and the R J Mitchell Lecture hosted by the Solent Branch. I would like to thank everyone concerned for their hospitality and for the organisation of such excellent events; it was particularly pleasing to chat with some of our younger members at most of them. This column has mentioned, on several occasions, that the local Branches are one of the Prof Ric Parker, right, is presented with the 2019 CEAS Gold fundamental strengths that maintain the health and Award at the 2020 Aerospace Europe Conference. vibrancy of the Society and this cross-section of events demonstrates one of our essential strengths. I am looking forward to visiting some other local Branches in the coming weeks. It was pleasing to note the success of two of the Society’s Fellows in recently receiving two responsible for aircraft certification and safety highly prestigious international awards. Prof Ric regulation. The decision has been met with dismay Parker CBE FRAeS won the 2019 Gold Award by industry and ADS, the trade body for the from the Council of European Aerospace Societies aerospace, defence, security and space sectors, as (CEAS) and Holger Babinksy FRAeS, Editor-in- there is the likelihood that this will lead to designs Chief of The Aeronautical Journal, has been elected and products having to be certified more than once. a Fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics Since the EU referendum, the Society, as and Astronautics (AIAA). Both awards are very well befits an independent learned Professional deserved and demonstrate the high regard world- Organisation, has considered the evidence and wide that both are held. consistently highlighted that maintenance of the I would like to remind you that the election for UK’s membership of EASA is the most effective new Council members is currently underway and and practical solution to maintain safety, access to there are just over six weeks to cast your vote. I urge global markets, attract investment from around the all Society members to do so as this is your chance world and maintain influence on European ATM to influence who represents you in the management rule-making. The published paper ‘Civil Aircraft of the professional, technical and learned society Regulation: What Future After Brexit?’ and written affairs of the RAeS. Council also works alongside and oral submissions to the BEIS Select Committee the Board of Trustees to support the direction and enquiry into Brexit saw the Royal Aeronautical leadership required to achieve the key objectives Society provide a balanced assessment of the of the Strategic Plan, so it is important that a broad potential future regulatory regime. I WOULD LIKE representation of the membership is elected. The For now, some crucial questions remain: TO REMIND field of candidates is of a high quality; however, ● How will the Civil Aviation Authority meet the YOU THAT THE the Society is continuing to work on progressing changing staff and regulatory capabilities required through the Royal Academy of Engineering Diversity in the time set out? ELECTION FOR and Inclusion Framework and we hope to see a ● How will the UK aviation/aerospace sector cope NEW COUNCIL broader representation in our Council members with increased regulatory costs, while also facing MEMBERS IS standing for the elections in the future. unprecedented challenges, such as multiple One of the challenges of writing this editorial airline collapses, Coronavirus, the 737 MAX CURRENTLY each month is that it is done some three weeks grounding and more? UNDERWAY AND before publication and therefore there is always We are working with our Specialist Groups to THERE IS JUST the danger of being somewhat out of date in my answer the hard questions and identify both threats OVER SIX WEEKS comments. However, I cannot let the Government’s and opportunities during this period. The Society announcement that the UK is to leave the European will continue to engage with the regulator and TO CAST YOUR Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) at the end of the Government during this period and will keep you VOTE Transition Period pass. After this, the UK will be updated.

42 AEROSPACE

Afterburner_April2020.indd 4 24/03/2020 12:03:36 OUR CHIEF EXECUTIVE

Sir Brian Burridge ● These are indeed turbulent times and what complexity associated with the Society’s Annual I write today will undoubtedly be out of date General Meeting (AGM) planned to be held tomorrow as the impact of Covid-19 continues at No.4 Hamilton Place on 21 May. Given the to spread across the globe: such is the nature of current uncertainty, we will continue to assess uncharted territory. Airline passenger predictions the situation and the Trustees will keep the have fallen off a cliff: our recent AEROSPACE membership informed based on the Government’s Insight blog gives the full details. Headlines point advice. to a grounding of 80% of the global fleet and ● Back in normal times, February saw UK Prime an IATA estimate that $200bn will be required Minister Boris Johnson announce his new Cabinet in airline bailouts. While it is true that only about and the related junior ministers. The Society 30 of the world’s airlines merit an investment wrote to those new in post and invited some grade rating, this is a staggering figure and the to address RAeS members. We have already current liquidity crisis is bound to see further received confirmation that UK Secretary of State failures and consolidations. Clearly, this situation for Transport, Grant Shapps, will provide a keynote has severe knock-on effects for airports and the address at our Climate Change Conference on manufacturers’ order books, together with their 3-4 November. Of great concern though is the supply chains. Related to this, March also saw the Government’s latest decision to leave EASA which unfortunate collapse of Flybe, which had been the President has covered in detail. This move operating under various names for more than 40 is contrary to all the advice that we and other years and were a valued Corporate Partner of the professional bodies have provided to Government Society. The Society offered career support to the since the Brexit referendum. Some wonder over 2,000 members of staff through social media whether this is a negotiating ploy with Brussels contact. It is a sad reflection on these times that in order to broker concessions elsewhere. If so, we know that both the 2020 Royal International the safety and regulatory structure on which Tattoo and the Farnborough International Air aerospace and aviation depends is vastly too Show have been cancelled. valuable an asset to be used in this way and is by ● In terms of the Society’s posture during these no means the hallmark of responsible negotiation. difficult times, we have closed No.4 Hamilton ● Slightly overshadowed by other news but Place temporarily and re-planned the conference welcome nevertheless, British Science Week and events programme towards the end of was launched in early March. Business Secretary, the year. We are seeking to conduct as much Aok Sharma, and Education Secretary, Gavin business-as-usual in a virtual environment Williamson, announced funding of £179m to including careers advice, lectures, Corporate support up to 2,200 students through 41 Doctoral Partner briefs and CPD segments, thereby Training Partnerships. These are aimed at the continuing to do our utmost to assist our sectors physical sciences, maths and engineering with a in this unprecedented situation. As for our view to developing skills that can subsequently be outputs, external commitments such as Cool applied to ground-breaking research in high-tech Aeronautics have been cancelled; accreditation industries. There is also a particularly welcome THESE ARE visits are likely to be postponed. Otherwise, all programme to encourage more young people, INDEED governance meetings will be conducted virtually, particularly girls, to study STEM subjects at school TURBULENT and we have devised workarounds to continue and university, and pursue a STEM-related career. apprenticeship End-point Assessment activity, In addition, there is much-needed funding for TIMES AND to go virtual on registration interviews and other improved science teaching in schools. WHAT I WRITE aspects of member interaction. Publication of ● To close, just a few points of individual recognition. TODAY WILL AEROSPACE and The Aeronautical Journal As the President has mentioned, we were UNDOUBTEDLY will continue. Our external affairs effort will delighted to see recognition for Ric Parker CBE also continue unabated: we will leave much of BE OUT OF DATE FRAeS and Holger Babinksy FRAeS. Also, Covid-19 to the trade associations while we focus to staff member Alex Brodie, our IT & Digital TOMORROW on Brexit, the EASA issue and the upcoming Programmes Manager, who has successfully AS THE IMPACT integrated defence review. We will continue to steered us through the complexities of Cyber OF COVID-19 respond to Government consultations and press Essentials Plus accreditation. But, we cannot enquiries. CONTINUES TO rest on our laurels given that, while system ● On a related matter, the President has underlined configuration is important, fully effective cyber SPREAD ACROSS the significance of the forthcoming Society’s security is also as much about human behaviour THE GLOBE Council elections but there is a degree of and the need for ‘good housekeeping’.

APRIL 2020 43

Afterburner_April2020.indd 5 24/03/2020 12:03:36 Book Reviews JUNKERS Ju 52/3m

Swedish float-equipped Junkers Ju 52/3m, SE-ADR, Södermanland. Below: The rear cabin of a Junkers Ju52/3m supplied to Prince Bibesco in 1932. RAeS (NAL).

Success beyond the in their research work and are scathing of so many under-researched books which perpetuate Luftwaffe erroneous information. They realise, however, that By L Andersson et al much archival material that is now available in Germany was not so in the past but say that this EAM Books EEIG, 3 Gatesmead, Haywards Heath does not excuse poor research. RH16 1SN, UK (E [email protected]). 2018. As usual, the authors have done their work well and have produced over 400 pages of text, 416pp. Illustrated. £35 (inclusive of UK postage/ liberally illustrated with many excellent photographs, packing). ISBN 978-0-95737443-0. many unfamiliar or rare. I especially liked the photographs showing aircraft structures, cockpit In their latest tome on Junkers aircraft – the and engine installations. There are also 33 pages Ju 52/3m – the authors firstly explore the life of in colour, illustrating many airline logos, military this legendary aircraft in the Spanish Civil War, insignia, celebratory postage stamps and plenty of during the Nazi regime and WW2. When the code photographs and drawings in colour (a modeller’s word ‘Dädalus’ went out, Lufthansa returned its dream). Ju 52/3ms to Germany and handed them over The index is largely aimed at finding specific to the Luftwaffe. Boxes of parts, each marked I commend it to countries, airlines and organisations that used the for specific aircraft, were already strategically all aerophiles Ju 52/3m. Sensibly, these users of the Ju 52/3m positioned around the country for the rapid not least are in groups in the text, making the story easier to militarisation of each aircraft. assimilate and enjoyable to read. The authors’ aim thereafter is to fill the ‘glaring because of This book will satisfy both those seeking fine gaps’ in the Ju 52/3m history after the war the wonderful details and those who enjoy leafing through a and this fills the main part of the book. As they illustrations, book and keeping it for reference. I commend it to say, German aviation history research requires meticulous text all aerophiles, not least because of the wonderful painstaking and time-consuming research, piecing illustrations, meticulous text and detailed records. together fragments of information from many and detailed different sources. These authors are meticulous records Antony Kay

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Afterburner_April2020.indd 6 24/03/2020 12:03:38 ONE NATION, UNDER DRONES Legality, Morality, and Utility of Unmanned Combat Systems Edited by J E Jackson

Naval Institute Press, 291 Wood Road, Annapolis, MD 21402, USA. 2018. x; 245pp. Illustrated. $29.95. ISBN 978-168247-238-5.

One Nation, Under Drones is an excellent primer on unmanned systems and the legal and ethical debates surrounding them. The book is a collection General Atomics MQ-9 the export of drones to countries ranging from South of 13 short essays by a diverse range of military Reaper unmanned aircraft Africa to Sri Lanka and N Korea. They also feature and civilian experts on drones. Roughly half of the system. USAF. in-depth discussions of the unmanned systems being essays discuss in great detail the history and current developed for the US Navy and Marines. development of unmanned military systems on land, Although these chapters are primarily focused on in the air, and in and under the sea. In these chapters technology development, they also give illuminating the book is at its best. They will prove tremendously insights into the strategy and policy behind the illuminating to all but the closest observers of developments. For example, the Afghan war is developments in unmanned military systems. They shown to have been an impetus for military drone provide a rare window, not only into state-of-the-art development and acquisition by nearly a dozen military technology, but also the strategic and policy countries fighting alongside the US against Al Qaeda imperatives driving it. Very helpfully, the book also and the Taliban. In the discussions of naval and marine features black and white photographs illustrating 25 unmanned systems, the authors emphasise the extent of the unmanned systems discussed. to which the development of ship-based equivalents The remaining chapters discuss the legal, ethical, to the land-based Predator drones has been driven by and policy questions surrounding the use of drones Overall, the a desire to give the US Navy global reach without the for targeted killing, the development of autonomous collection need for land bases. A subsequent chapter echoes weapons and the challenges posed by the exponential this idea, arguing that the US Marines perceive the growth of non-military drones for commercial and contains a wealth need to be able to operate from sea-based launch private use. While much of information and arguments of technological sites because land-based airfields cannot always be in this latter group of chapters will be familiar to both material that relied on, as they are sometimes denied for political experts and the reasonably informed observer, their will be useful to reasons. That is, the US military is seeking enhanced quality and the range of topics they cover make capabilities to operate without the need for land-based them a very useful compendium to the historical and those working in allied co-operation. technological discussions. these relatively The remaining discussions of the lethal, ethical, The book begins with an illuminating and specialist fields and political questions surrounding unmanned exhaustive account of unmanned aerial vehicle and autonomous systems are both thoughtful and (UAV) developments that place the more well-known generally accurate. Although the authors tend to Predator and Reaper drones in historical context. The defend the use of lethal combat drones and the opening chapter gives design details and applications development of autonomous weapons, they do so for drones ranging from the 14 gram Black cautiously. They point out that drones, like any weapon, and the 2.5kg AeroVironment Switchblade to the can be used unlawfully, unethically, and/or unwisely. Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk with a They thus point to the need to focus on the context wingspan of 130ft and the rotary wing Lockheed and rules governing the use of such weapons, rather Martin K-Max, capable of delivering 6,000lb of cargo than the weapons themselves. Similarly. with respect at sea level. For all but the closest observers of to autonomous weapons, although the tenor of the developments in military UAVs, the opening chapter discussion is generally optimistic, the authors caution will serve as an illuminating survey of the current state that any machine learning algorithm is only as good of play. as its ‘training’. Thus, great care must be taken both Several subsequent chapters enrich the opening to ‘train’ such machines without unintentional biases picture. They show how the consumer, rather than Joshua Andresen and to deploy them only in context for which they have the military, market is driving innovation, especially in Senior Lecturer been properly trained. For readers interested in delving the incorporation of greater autonomy in unmanned (Associate Professor) in deeper into these debates, the footnotes for each of systems. They add an important international National Security and the essays direct readers to further reading, including perspective by discussing development of drones in Foreign Relations Law sources that disagree with the positions taken by the China, Israel, the Soviet Union and Russia, as well as University of Surrey book’s authors.

APRIL 2020 45

Afterburner_April2020.indd 7 24/03/2020 12:03:39 - Book Reviews THE MERLIN

The Engine that Won the devotes most of the rest of the book to chapters IIC, on the aircraft that the Merlin powered, covering MW336, under construction. RAeS (NAL). Second World War the Hurricane and Spitfire, the Mosquito, Lancaster By G A A Wilson and P-51 Mustang. The author returns to the Merlin story in the penultimate chapter on Merlin variants, including the Packard-built Merlin, and concludes Amberley Publishing, The Hill, Merrywalks, Stroud, with a chapter on preserved Merlin engines still Gloucestershire GL5 4EP, UK. 2018. 272pp. flying today. Illustrated. £18.99. ISBN 978-1-4456-5681-6. Throughout he celebrates the Merlin as ‘the greatest Second World War piston engine ever’, but This book is a disappointment. The objective of the doesn’t explain why the Merlin was so much better book is to present a history of the development of than other candidates for that accolade, nor why the the Rolls-Royce Merlin engine and its use during Merlin faired poorly in the postwar years compared WW2. The focus of the book, however, is less on the to the big Bristol, Pratt & Whitney and Wright Merlin and more on the famous aircraft it powered. Unfortunately, in telling this story the author merely air-cooled radial engines that dominated military and refashions material that has already appeared commercial transport aircraft until the jets came into elsewhere. He does not appear to have had access service. The difficulty with the author’s approach is to the records of the or the Ministry that, by focusing on the aircraft, the author loses of Aircraft Production which might have provided the thread of the Merlin’s development. Numerous greater depth to his story. The book adds nothing to errors mar the book. our knowledge of this famous engine. The author’s conclusion that the Merlin was The author begins with an overview of the origin ‘the engine that won the Second World War’ is of the Merlin, providing a detailed history of the problematic at best. There is no question that the Rolls-Royce Company and its liquid-cooled aircraft Merlin was one of the finest piston engines ever engines of the 1920s and early 1930s. A chapter built and made a vital contribution to Allied victory follows on how Rolls-Royce developed the Merlin in WW2 but to say that the Merlin won the war is a from the experimental PV-12 engine. The author stretch. The Merlin was necessary but not sufficient. Edward M Young

46 AEROSPACE

Afterburner_April2020.indd 8 24/03/2020 12:03:40 -

THE DEFEAT OF THE ZEPPELINS Zeppelin Raids and Anti- Airship Operations 1916-18 By M Powis

Pen & Sword Aviation, Pen & Sword Books, 47 Church Street, Barnsley, S Yorkshire S70 2AS, UK. 2018. xii; 300pp. Illustrated. £25. ISBN 978-1-52670-249-4.

As the author explains in his introduction, this book is a continuation of his previous work Zeppelins Over the Midlands (Pen & Sword Books. 2016) but is in itself a stand-alone work. It begins by describing the various types of airships used by the German Army and Navy, something of their methods of operation and the types of weapons they employed, followed by a Above: The wreck of Zeppelin the development of and long-range series of chapters that record in chronological LZ 76 (also designated flying boats to attack the airships in the air, the L 33), which was torched by order the various air raids and other operations its crew after making a forced Lewis gun and the various types of incendiary undertaken by these craft between August 1914 landing at Little Wigborough, bullets designed to set fire to the hydrogen-filled and November 1918. near Colchester, Essex, after airships. The day-by-day reports of bombing raids are sustaining serious damage What is particularly apparent from this book not of themselves very detailed, usually giving only from anti-aircraft shells is that, despite the enormous effort made by the and British fighter aircraft, short descriptions of the particular airship used, returning from a bombing Germans in attempting to create a new weapon of the target and the outcome, which, generally was raid over London on 23 war, the airship proved to be a failure, with 78% of not very successful as far as the airships and their September 1916. the airships listed recorded as being destroyed by crews were concerned. However, they do provide British Library. anti-airship operations, bad weather or accident. a useful starting point for more detailed research Despite some factual errors and a need for and show that airship raids were not just confined more careful editing, this book is recommended as a to the bombing of and European cities but research tool for anyone studying the history of the also operations on the Eastern Front in Russia, the development of the airship as a weapon of war. Balkans and in the Baltic. In between these reports are useful chapters on Brian J Turpin the use of radio location for tracking enemy airships, MRAeS

NATIONAL AEROSPACE LIBRARY

Further to the UK Government’s guidance, the National Aerospace Library will be closed to external visitors as of Friday, 20 March, to ensure the health and wellbeing of our staff, members and volunteers.

Our online services remain available so you can continue to browse the catalogue and download e-books (see p 57) as well as contact our expert Librarians for advice and enquiries. E [email protected] NAL www.aerosociety.com/nal Catalogue www.aerosociety.com/catalogue e-books www.aerosociety.com/ebooks

APRIL 2020 47

Afterburner_April2020.indd 9 24/03/2020 12:03:42 Library Additions BOOKS

AIR TRANSPORT history of the design aircrew involved, a history of personal experiences working conflict in Nigeria) and its use evolution and construction the multirole Coastal Command as a Cessna engineering test by the CIA in covert operations of the Sopwith Bat Boat aircraft which was to be used in Indonesia, Cuba (the 1961 When the Coast is Clear: pilot and the Manager of Flight in anti-submarine warfare, US planned ‘Bay of Pigs’ the Story of New Zealand’s which – having Test and Aerodynamics, a maritime reconnaissance, invasion), Laos, Vietnam and First and Most Unique been assembled at the Sam compilation of ‘insider’ histories colonial policing, troop The Congo. Licensed Scheduled Air Saunders works – made of the evolution of the Cessna transport, bomber and search Service – South Westland its first flight from the River 140/C-150/C-152/C-170/ and rescue operations. 1934-1967. Edited by R J Medina at Whippingham on 13 C-172/T-41A/C-175/C-177/ Silvered Wings: the Aerial Waugh et al. Craig Printing Co March 1913 piloted by T O M C-180/C-182/C-185/C-188 Photographs of Gordon Ltd, Invercargill, South Island. Sopwith. Directory of Britain’s Agwagon/C-190/C-195/ Bain. Airlife Publishing Ltd, 2000. 81pp. Illustrated. ISBN Military Aircraft Vol 2: C-205/C-207/C-210/ Shrewsbury. 1999. 144pp. 0-473-02851-4. and General- C-305/C-321 light aircraft Illustrated. ISBN 1-84037- Numerous contemporary Purpose Types; Over-Water and their variants, concluding 024-6. photographs illustrate this Reconnaissance and Anti- with the Cessna Siebel CH1 A compilation of striking history of Air Travel (NZ) Ltd Submarine Types; Transport helicopter. air-to-air colour photographs and Communications which, on 18 December 1934, of over 140 airworthy classic Types; Tankers; Airborne became the first airline in New aircraft types. Radar and Long-Range Zealand to operate scheduled Surveillance Types; Crew services. Trainers. T Hancock. The Flying By Bradshaw: History Press, Stroud. 2010. Memoirs of a Pioneer Pilot Early Risers: the 319pp. Illustrated. ISBN 978-0- 1933-1975. A Bradshaw. Pioneering Story of 7524-4532-8. Proctor Publications. 2000. 223pp. Illustrated. ISBN Gisborne and Hawkes Arranged alphabetically 0-47307317X. Bay Aviation. Edited by R J by aircraft manufacturer, Waugh et al. Published by the a compilation of concise The autobiography of author. 1997. 93 pp. Illustrated. operational histories of each a New Zealand bush pilot ISBN 0-473-04391-2. individual aircraft type and with Southland Airways who A well-illustrated history In Turbulent Skies: British their variants (including the later flew with the Royal of Gisborne Air Transport Aviation Successes and total number built and the New Zealand Air Force, RAF Transport Command during Ltd and East Coast Airways Setbacks 1945-1975. squadrons they served with) Petticoat Pilots: WW2 and in the post-war years Limited (the first airline to be P Reese. The History Press, that saw British military service. Biographies and with Sabena and Skyways Ltd, licensed in New Zealand) and 97 St George’s Place, Achievements of Irish the development of aviation in concluding with his long- Cheltenham, Gloucestershire The BN-1F ‘Finibee’. Female Aviators 1909- the areas they served. distance flight from England- GL50 3QB, UK. 2020. 295pp. P Gatrell and B Wealthy. Solent 1939 Vols 1-2. M Traynor. Illustrated. £19.99. ISBN 978- New Zealand during May-June Aeromarine Enterprises. 2011. Published by the author (E 1950 in a Percival Proctor. Strait Across: the 0-7509-9302-9. 20pp. Illustrated. [email protected]). Pioneering Story of Cook A concise history of the xii; 295pp; xv; 326pp. 2019. The Incredible T-6 Pilot Strait Aviation. Edited by R J Clydeside Aviation Vol first aircraft designed by John Illustrated. £30 per volume or Maker. W Ohlrich and J Ethell. Waugh et al. Published by the 2 – Between the Wars. Britten and Desmond Norman £50 for both volumes. ISBN Speciality Press Publishers, author. 1995. 81pp. Illustrated. C E MacKay. A MacKay, which first flew on 26 May 978-0-9549194-1-2; 978-0- Osceola, WI. 1983. 144pp. ISBN 0-473-03427-1. 87 Knightscliffe Avenue, 1951. 9549194-2-9. Illustrated. ISBN 0-933424- A history of Cook Strait Netherton, Glasgow G13 2RX, Illustrated throughout 34-5. Airways Ltd which, on 26 UK. 2020. 344pp. Illustrated. The Britten Sheriff Project. with numerous contemporary Incorporating the December 1935, operating the £17.45 (inclusive of postage/ B Wealthy. Solent Aeromarine photographs, an informative recollections of the pilots de Havilland Dragon Rapide, packing). ISBN 978-0- Enterprises. 2011. 20pp. compilation of detailed involved, a detailed history initiated the first scheduled air 9573443-7-9-2. Illustrated. biographical profiles of Violet of the evolution of the North service between the North and Dunville, Lilian Bland, Lady The R-34/R-36 airships, A concise history of the American Aviation advanced South Islands of New Zealand. Heath, Sicele O’Brien, Lady the aircraft and aero engine light aircraft G-FRJB which trainer aircraft and its many Bailey, Adelaide Cleaver, Jean designs of William Beardmore was the last aircraft designed variants (including the Harvard, Turbulent Years: a Trench, Margaret, Helen and & Co Ltd, Cierva and Weir by John Britten. Texan and J-Bird). Commercial Pilot’s Story. autogiros/helicopters (and Mairi Stewart, Mabel and B Waugh. Hazard Press the later development of The Britten-Norman BN-3 Sheila Glass, Ruth Hallinan and Limited, Christchurch, New Pioneering Years: 1918 Focke Achgelis FW61), Nymph and the Norman Nancy Corrigan and the major Zealand. 1997. 229pp. to 1961. C E Fielding. British Cameron Rotaplane, Renfrew Aeroplane Company NAC1 role these women played in Illustrated. ISBN 0-908790- Aerospace PLC, Manchester. Aerodrome, the evolution of Freelance. B Wealthy. Solent the development of aviation in 31-7. 1982. 87pp. Illustrated. airlines in Scotland, Rohrbach Aeromarine Enterprises. 2011. Ireland. Includes a Foreword by A pilot’s recollections of aircraft, H J Steiger and the 40pp. Illustrated. Michael D Higgins, President The author recalls his flying for South Island Airways, long career with the mono-spar wing system and A concise history of the of Ireland. Trans Island Airways, West aircraft company from the the Blackburn Kangaroo BN-3 Nymph and its later Coast Airways and Tourist Air time he originally joined the are among the many areas variant the NAC1 Freelance Foreign Invaders: the Travel during the early years company (with the support of of history (which was later restored Douglas Invader in of New Zealand commercial Roy Dobson) on 1 January surveyed in this volume. to flying condition by Vectis foreign military and US aviation are vividly recalled in 1918 until his retirement Aviation Services). clandestine service. these memoirs. when the Avro 748 was in Growling Over the Oceans: D Hagedorn and L Hellstrom. its early stages. An appendix Avro Shackleton: the Men Cessna Wings for the Midland Publishing Limited, includes a detailed statistical HISTORICAL and the Missions 1951- World: the Single-Engine Earl Shilton. 1994. 200pp. analysis dated May 1943 of 1991. D Lake. Souvenir Press Development Story. Illustrated. ISBN 1-85780- the number of men and women The Sopwith Bat-Boat. Ltd, London. 2010. xiv; 308pp. W D Thompson. Maverick 013-3. employed in the production of B Wealthy. Solent Aeromarine Illustrated. ISBN 978-0- Publications, Inc, Bend, OR. A very detailed history of the Avro Lancaster, the roles Enterprises. 2013. 62pp. 28563-876-1. 1992. ix; 198pp. Illustrated. how the Douglas A-26 Invader they played and the various Illustrated. Incorporating throughout ISBN 0-89288-221-2. was operated by over 20 sites where the aircraft was A detailed well-illustrated the recollections of pilots and Based on the author’s countries (including the Biafra manufactured.

For further information contact the National Aerospace Library. T +44 (0)1252 701038 or 701060 E [email protected]

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Afterburner_April2020.indd 10 24/03/2020 12:03:43 NATIONAL AEROSPACE LIBRARY Man Up! Women Claire Lewis House via Chawton who stepped into a Man’s World The National Aerospace Library at Farnborough holds an extensive early ballooning collection which is probably one of the finest of its kind in the world, centred around the notable Cuthbert-Hodgson Collection, to which has been added the Poynton, Maitland, C F A Pierce and other collections of early ballooning, airships and other early aeronautical material now held in the National Aerospace Library. Four of the Library’s early 18th century ballooning lithographs have been loaned to Chawton House (www.chawtonhouse.org) – the grand Elizabethan manor house once owned by Jane Austen’s brother Edward which now houses a collection of over 10,000 volumes of early women’s writing – for its exhibition ‘Man Up! Women who stepped into a Man’s World’ highlighting the lives of pioneering women who took on roles normally associated with men which opened on 2 March and runs through to 30 December. Part of the exhibition features 18th century women aeronauts and the National Aerospace Library has loaned for display contemporary lithographs of the time which feature Miss Grice and Mrs Sage. On 23 March 1785 Count Francesco Zambeccari attempted a balloon ascent from Tottenham Court Clockwise from left: A late 18th century French lithograph which Road in London in which he was to be accompanied reflects the ‘balloon mania’ which swept across Europe at the by Rear Admiral Sir Edward Vernon and a ‘Miss Grice’. time of the first balloon ascents. A fragment of chintz balloon However, due to weight concerns, Miss Grice (Grist) fabric. Plate showing Count Zambeccari’s Balloon which was to have taken up himself, Rear Admiral Sir Edward Vernon and Miss “was obliged to leave ... which she did with evident Grice from Tottenham Court Road. The NAL artefacts on display reluctance” and the balloon ascended without her. at the exhibition: A painting by Georgiana Keate (1770-1850) The honour of becoming the first Englishwoman depicting Mr Biggin and Mrs Sage ascending from St George’s to ascend into the air by balloon fell ultimately to Fields in Lunardi’s Balloon on 29 June 1785. RAeS (NAL). Letitia Sage who, later that year on 29 June 1785 in the company of George Biggin, made an ascent in a Lunardi balloon from St George’s Fields, Newington Butts, to a field near Harrow in a flight lasting nearly The sensation of Aerostation – and the freedom an hour which Mrs Sage vividly described in her it opened up in an era of great social change – memoir A letter to a friend... describing her expedition led to a ‘balloon mania’ sweeping across Europe, with Mr Lunardi’s balloon (London: J Bell. 1785) encouraged by the circulation of numerous published which brought her both fame and notoriety. accounts, prints and various other balloon fashions The flight was depicted in a series of lithographs and memorabilia. To illustrate this trend, the National known as ‘The Three Aerial Travellers’ showing the Aerospace Library is also loaning to the exhibition famous balloonist Vincenzo Lunardi, Mrs Sage and two contemporary French lithographs showing the Mr Biggin. However, the scene represented in the height of balloon fashion accessories and, from the lithograph is imaginary as, due to weight concerns, Library’s collection of early ballooning fabrics, a large only Mrs Sage and Mr Biggin ascended in the WAS OBLIGED fragment of late-18th century printed chintz depicting balloon. The National Aerospace Library holds both TO LEAVE ... a pastoral scene of a soaring Lunardi-type balloon the black-and-white and the rarer colour version of WHICH SHE DID with boys watching the balloon’s ascent overhead. this lithograph, a more accurate representation of the For any enquiries about this material please event being shown in a watercolour by Georgiana WITH EVIDENT contact the librarians at Farnborough (+44 (0)1252 Keate which is also held in the Library’s archives. RELUCTANCE 701 038/(0)1252 701 060; [email protected]).

APRIL 2020 49

Afterburner_April2020.indd 11 24/03/2020 12:03:45 NATIONAL AEROSPACE LIBRARY NAL Sound Archive

The National Aerospace Library (as described in AEROSPACE January 2020 pp 50-51) is developing an aeronautical sound archive based on historical sound recordings held in the Library’s archives which have been recently digitalised and are being released in batches via the Royal Aeronautical Society’s SoundCloud site, alongside the Society’s podcasts of current lectures. The National Aerospace Library Sound Archive is a real ‘Who’s Who’ of aviation personalities and historical subjects based on original recordings held in the Library’s archives and is available to listen to via the Royal Aeronautical Society’s SoundCloud Sir Peter Masefield, Alan Mulally, Sir Charles website: Masefield and Sir Ralph Robins) is:

www.aerosociety.com/podcast https://soundcloud.com/aerosociety- podcast/sets/classic-lecture-series Included among the latest releases are a 2006 sound recording of Dr Don Richardson HonFAIAA A quick link to the extended interviews available HonFRAeS in which he recollects on the parallel so far (including interviews with Captain Eric ‘Winkle’ evolution of the Hiller X-18/Fairchild C-123 – the Brown, Chuck Yeager, Scott Crossfield, Handel specific link to the video/sound recording is (just click Davies, Al White, Bill Humble, Pete Knight, Dick on the arrow button to ‘Play’): Johnson, Philip Lucas, Peter Bugge, Col Emil ‘Ted’ Sturmthal, Harald Penrose, John Morton, D P Davies, https://www.aerosociety.com/news/ Jeffrey Quill, John Cunningham, Sir , audio-classic-lecture-series-from-gliders- R A C Brie, Sir Harry Ricardo, Clayton Knight, Henry to-jets-the-insiders-guide-to-the-hiller-x-18- Top: The sole Hiller X-18, Knowler, Mike Savage, Hugh Dibley, Sir Geoffrey de the-fairchild-c-123-by-dr-don-richardson-hon- 57-3078, experimental tilt- Havilland and Col Joe Kittinger) is: fraes/ wing aircraft is described by Dr Don Richardson in a 2006 https://soundcloud.com/aerosociety- Dr Richardson’s lecture has been released lecture. RAeS (NAL). podcast/sets/an-interview-with Above: Scott Crossfield in alongside recordings of a 2007 lecture by Sir the cockpit of the Douglas Brian Burridge FRAeS in which he reviews the D-558-2 Skyrocket after the For example, the interviews with Captain Eric future direction of air power requirements and a first Mach 2 flight in 1953. Brown and Sir Barnes Wallis are available to listen to 2009 lecture by Gordon Bruce FRAeS in which NASA. via the following links: he describes the long aviation history of the Shorts company. https://www.aerosociety.com/news/audio- A quick link to the historic lectures and speeches the-capt-e-brown-interview/ available so far (including Sir Frederick , Igor Sikorsky, Jeffrey Quill, Peter Twiss, Charles https://www.aerosociety.com/news/audio- H Gibbs-Smith, Andrew Brookes, Silvius Dornier, Sir the-sir-barnes-wallis-interview/ Richard Glazebrook, Commander Graeme Rowan- Thomson, Keith Hayward, Sir Dermot Boyle, Philip In addition, historic sound recordings from a Wills, Chris Yeo, Captain John Cecil Kelly-Rogers, 1959 BBC radio series have also been added to the Col Al Worden, Peter Hearne, Sir George Edwards, National Aerospace Library Sound Archive. John Farley, A W ‘Bill’ Bedford, HRH The Duke Produced for BBC Overseas Service by R A of Edinburgh, Christopher Bartlett, Andy Sephton, Symes-Schutzmann, the radio documentary series Dr Ron Smith, A R Collar, Sir Vernon Brown, Air was a group of talks on the development of British Commodore F R ‘Rod’ Banks, L S Snaith, Peter aviation broadcast by BBC External Services in 1959 Reese, Mike Hirst, Air Chief Marshal Sir Philip in the series ‘English Talks for Asia’. Joubert de La Ferte, Air Marshal Sir Victor Goddard, With the programmes linked by Charles Gibbs-

50 AEROSPACE

Afterburner_April2020.indd 12 24/03/2020 12:03:47 Smith, they include recordings of Lord Brabazon, Sir Geoffrey de Havilland, Major G P Bulman, Sir Harold Roxbee Cox, Sir Graham Sutton, Sir Alan , Captain O P Jones, ACM Sir Alec Coryton, Hayne Constant, Sir Robert Watson-Watt, A A Lombard, Sir George Edwards, Captain John Cunningham and Geoffrey Hall discussing the development of British aviation from their own personal perspectives. All six episodes in the series – based on the original recordings held in the archives of the National Aerospace Library – are now available to listen to via the Royal Aeronautical Society’s SoundCloud website:

www.aerosociety.com/podcast

The specific link to the recordings is as follows (just click on the arrow button to ‘Play’):

https://www.aerosociety.com/news/audio- archive-recording-powered-flight-the-british- contribution-to-flying

Sound recordings of six lectures by leading aviation historians Dr Peter Jakab, Dr Richard Hallion, Dr John Ackroyd, Philip Jarrett, Gordon Bruce and Professor D I A Poll describing the achievements of the Wright brothers and the early development of aeronautics up to that time have also recently been added to the National Aerospace Library Sound Archive and are also available to listen to via the Royal Aeronautical Society’s SoundCloud website: Top: The 1931 RAF High Speed Flight. Left to right: Flt Lt E J Linton Hope, Lt G L Brinton RN, Flt Lt F W Long, Flt Lt G H Stainforth, Sqn Ldr A H Orlebar, Flt Lt J N Boothman, FO L S Snaith and Flt Lt Dry (engineer). www.aerosociety.com/podcast Above: The Short No2 which won the Daily Mail £1,000 prize for the first flight of one mile in a closed circuit by a British pilot in an all-British aircraft on 30 October 1909. Horace Short is on The specific link to the recordings is (just click on the right. the arrow button to ‘Play’): Below: Gp Capt John Cunningham, CBE, DSO**, DFC*, HonFRAeS, 1917-2002, with the high- altitude de Havilland Vampire. RAeS (NAL). https://www.aerosociety.com/news/audio- classic-lecture-series-the-beginnings- of-powered-flight-the-wright-brothers- contribution-to-aviation/ As permissions are received from either the original speakers, or the family descendants of them, All the historic podcasts released via the National to digitally release these historic recordings, further Aerospace Library Sound Archive can also now be content will continue to be added to the National downloaded for free via iTunes: Aerospace Library Sound Archive. For any enquiries about the National Aerospace https://itunes.apple.com/gb/podcast/ Library Sound Archive please contact the librarians aerosociety-podcast/id1216235459?mt=2 (E: [email protected]) who would wish to acknowledge the valuable assistance of Mike The intention of the National Aerospace Library Stanberry FRAeS who has devoted numerous hours Sound Archive project is to create a historically to ‘sound-editing’ each of these recordings before significant oral history archive which makes the they are digitally released. voices of the past (pilots, engineers, scientists If these recordings or extracts from these etc) ‘alive’ once more to inspire and inform current recordings are to be reproduced in any way and future generations and the sound archive has acknowledgement should be made to the ‘Royal attracted a number of favourable comments/interest Aeronautical Society (National Aerospace Library)’ as via social media. being the source of the original.

APRIL 2020 51

Afterburner_April2020.indd 13 24/03/2020 12:03:50 WASHINGTON DC BRANCH

Approximately 200 senior government officials, aerospace executives and other VIP guests welcomed legendary founder Sir Richard Branson HonCRAeS to Washington, DC on the evening of 9 March. He was there as the latest winner of the Transatlantic Leading-Edge Award, presented by the Royal Aeronautical Society’s DC Branch to a leader who has strengthened and broadened the aviation and aerospace connections between the US, UK and the world. Acting Ambassador Michael Tatham welcomed the assembled guests to the ambassador’s official residence, an ornate space frequently utilised by the RAeS DC Branch for high-profile events. In recognition of the, then-emerging, Covid-19 Coronavirus crisis, DC Branch chairman William INSPIRED THE Voss said: “Over the past decades, we have been WORLD WITH confronted with wars, attacks, tragic accidents, AUDACIOUS economic disasters and even the occasional From left: Sir Richard Branson HonCRAeS; Bill Voss FRAeS, disease. Each time, these events have threatened to ACTS THAT Washington DC Branch Chair; and Sir Stuart Matthews FRAeS, pull the world apart and plunge people into isolation. REMINDED US Washington DC Branch President. But, each time this industry’s unique ability to ALL OF THE connect, re-connect, unite and inspire has prevailed. So maybe this is just the right day to recognise a SENSE OF leader who tore down so many barriers and has built ROMANCE AND including Virgin Atlantic, , Virgin many connections in the field of aviation and space.” ADVENTURE Australia, Virgin Cargo, and Virgin Sir Stuart Matthews, founder of the DC Branch, THAT GAVE Galactic, he has also “inspired the world with noted that the board’s choice of Sir Richard had audacious acts that reminded us all of the sense been an easy one. In his career, Sir Richard had BIRTH TO THIS of romance and adventure that gave birth to this not just founded countless successful ventures, INDUSTRY industry,” Matthews declared.

UAE BRANCH

As an initiative to reach out to the young such as the annual Young Persons’ Competition. enthusiasts in Dubai, UAE, the Royal Aeronautical As the UAE Branch conducts monthly lectures, Society UAE Branch called upon a number of many students were willing to sign up for updates in universities in the region to interact and introduce order to attend the same. The session also shared them to the Society and the role we have in the the benefits of the membership, CPD and the country. This Student Engagement Presentation Professional Registration. was conducted in November 2019 at the Emirates The event ended with a fun quiz session that Training College in Dubai. It was led by RAeS-UAE kept the students thoroughly engaged, where the Chairman Capt Martin Mahoney FRAeS and Deputy winners won some great prizes. Young Person’s Network Representative, Archana Following the event, we have seen a good Nair ARAeS. increase in student attendance for our monthly As this was the second time this event took lectures. We would like to thank all the students place in the region, it was immensely popular and who attended the session and our members who quite a success! We had an attendance of almost actively supported to conduct this event with such 100 students from major universities based in the enthusiasm. The Branch’s upcoming events for UAE, and saw a majority of aerospace enthusiasts young persons include a Career Advice session, who were eager to be a part of the RAeS Student where senior industry professionals will be on the members group. panel, interacting with the audience, answering The presentation focused mainly on the aims questions and sharing their experience to and purpose of the Royal Aeronautical Society. A encourage them all. number of events held in the past were discussed, Archana Nair including multiple young persons’ related activities, Deputy YPN Representative, UAE Branch

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Afterburner_April2020.indd 14 24/03/2020 12:03:51 COVENTRY BRANCH

The Coventry Branch Meggitt Lecture was held at Brandon Hall, Coventry, on Thursday, 20 February. The talk was well received by all in attendance, which included a selection of Meggitt apprentices, graduates and industry experts. Salvatore Ippedico (Meggitt AR&T Engineer) delivered an outstanding talk on ‘Meggitt’s Step Change Thermal Systems Technology’. This lecture provided an insight into the ‘step change’ technology that Meggitt is developing to meet the requirements of future engine thermal management systems. The global aviation industry is facing an increasing pressure to reduce the environmental impact of civil aviation. Achieving this target will require radical changes in aircraft and engine technology, airline operations and air traffic management. As far as engine technology is concerned, a number of concepts are being From left: Steve Pilling, investigated by the industry, such as ultra-high Coventry Branch President, bypass ratio turbofan engines with a power Roy Deakin and Prof Jonathan gearbox. These propulsion units are characterised Cooper, RAeS President. by a much higher heat load for the engine thermal management system compared to current state-of- On the behalf of the RAeS Coventry Branch we the-art engines. Fans are getting bigger and space surprised Roy Deakin, Meggitt SVP, with a special inside the nacelle is increasingly at a premium. ‘aerospace appreciation award’. The award was Space and weight savings are becoming critical presented to Roy by Steve Pilling (RAeS Coventry design criteria. As a result, the development of Branch President) and Prof Jonathan Cooper innovative new technologies that will enable the FRAeS, RAeS President. Roy has been a strong design of increasingly lighter, more compact thermal supporter of the Coventry Branch for many years management solutions will play a critical role in and retired from Meggitt in March after 40 years enabling this step change in aircraft propulsion. service.

ROYAL AERONAUTICAL SOCIETY EVENTS UPDATE The health and wellbeing of our staff, members, clients and guests is a priority for the RAeS. As such, in line with the Government and Public Health England’s latest advice, the RAeS headquarters at No.4 Hamilton Place has closed its doors to the public as of Thursday, 19 March. We have taken the decision to cancel or postpone all RAeS events up to the end of April at our London headquarters at No.4 Hamilton Place. Where possible, we are planning to reschedule events later in the year as well as share recordings or arrange virtual events. If you have any queries about an event you were due to attend please email: [email protected]

Watch and listen to previous lectures at the RAeS (see pp 50-51) by visiting www.aerosociety.com/podcast

Lectures across our Branch network have also been cancelled for the remainder of the season. For information about activities in our Divisions in Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan and South Africa, visit www.aerosociety.com/divisions

We will continue to monitor Government advice, update our plans accordingly and inform you of any changes to format or dates. Please visit the website, engage with our social media channels or read your emails for further updates. To update your preferences about what communications you receive from the RAeS, our Branch network and Specialist Groups, log into your profile and review your options at www.aerosociety.com/login

APRIL 2020 53

Afterburner_April2020.indd 15 24/03/2020 12:03:52 Obituary ALEC GRAHAM COLLINS

CEng FIMechE FRAeS 1932-2019

Alec Collins died on 8 December after a very short illness. He began his career with Rolls-Royce in 1954 as a apprentice having gained a 1st Class Honours degree from Sheffield University. He joined the Performance Department in 1956 where he carried out engine optimisation studies leading to the design of the Medway, Spey and Adour engines involving the development of a novel method for calculating off-design performance of mixed bypass engine before the days of computers. From 1962 to 1964 he worked at the Mondane wind tunnel in France on full-scale, half-aircraft performance in the -400, managed testing of four Rolls-Royce RB162 engines EJ200 performance development, WR21 concept mounted inside a 27-foot diameter wind tunnel in studies and initial performance work and selection support of the installation of the RB162 lift jet in the of cycles for 700, 800 and future derivatives. Mirage IIIV vertical take-off aircraft. Following this, This post also included responsibility for aircraft from 1964 to 1967, he was the Senior Rolls-Royce performance analysis groups, both civil and military. Engineer at McDonnell, St Louis, US, working on the From 1992 to 1994, as Chief Engineering Auditor, installation of the reheated Spey engine in the F-4 Performance & Controls, he was part of small team Phantom including flight testing at Edwards AFB. reviewing all Rolls-Royce projects, including civil, On returning to Derby in 1967 he became military, power generation and marine, later serving Chief Engineer of the Adour engine, where he led as performance and controls Consultant Engineer. the team that developed and certified the reheated Alec was a recognised international authority Adour engine in the SEPECAT Jaguar aircraft and on aircraft and engine performance and was invented the Adour Part Throttle Reheat system. much respected by customer airlines, notably He also initiated the definition and installation of Qantas and South African where he contributed to the Adour in the very successful securing crucial sales contracts. Although primarily Hawk trainer aircraft. a performance authority, his rounded experience In 1972 he became Programme Manager of made him a respected engineer for any problems, the RB211 with responsibility for co-ordinating aviation or otherwise. and advancing RB211 activities for the first He had an in-depth knowledge of engineering four years that the engine was in service in the history across all disciplines but notably aviation. He Lockheed TriStar. Following the failure of a fan disc was a strong admirer of the original work of George in December 1972, quickly followed by a second Cayley in c.1800 and of Sir Frank Whittle’s early failure, he co-ordinated the activity that enabled development of the . He was a strong the engines to keep flying until new redesigned supporter of the Rolls-Royce Heritage Trust and was discs were fitted, for which the company gained advocating that the historical collection of engines much praise from the airlines. In 1977 he was in Derby should be turned into a museum open to appointed Chief Performance Engineer, during the public. He often gave talks and lectures and which time he was responsible for all aspects of performed book reviews for the Royal Aeronautical engine performance and played a major part in the Society. He is co-author with myself of a book, yet development of the RB211-524B4 and D4 and to be published, with the working title The History of RB211-535C and E4 engines. Propulsion and Power. From 1984 to 1987, he was VP Engineering, From 1995 through 2007, he was Visiting International Aero Engines (IAE), responsible Professor of Aviation Gas Turbines, University of for developing the V2500 engine for the Airbus Pisa, Italy, lecturing each year on the conceptual A320. This involved the overall management of design of a modern civil gas turbine engine the engineering work of the seven companies – in this case the Trent 800. He received the (from five countries) involved in the V2500 engine University’s Gold Medal in 2005. Professor Collins development, certification and installation into the was a Chartered Engineer, a Fellow of the Royal Above right: Rolls-Royce Airbus A320. Aeronautical Society, and a Fellow of the Institution RB211-535E4 fitted to a In 1987 he became General Manager of Mechanical Engineers. Boeing 757. This engine marked the first use of wide- Performance until 1992 with responsibility for chord fan blades. performance teams across all Rolls-Royce divisions. Philip Ruffles Rolls-Royce. He organised recovery of the RB211-524G CBE CEng FREng FRS HonFRAeS

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Afterburner_April2020.indd 16 24/03/2020 12:03:52 PARIS BRANCH

On 10 March, the Royal Aeronautical Society, Paris Branch, held its inaugural ‘Woman in Aviation Forum’ in Salle Vinci in the ESA/CNES Launcher Directorate building, at Daumesnil, Paris 12. The event was hosted by Howard Nye, RAeS President- Elect and Vice-President of RAeS Paris Branch. Dr Susanne Svensdotter, RAeS Paris Branch Diversity Representative, led the panel discussion to which four inspiring women from aviation and aerospace had been invited to speak about their careers in front of a captivated audience: ● Anne-Marie Mainguy gained a first PhD in optimisation of interplanetary trajectories, and a second in satellite measurement of Earth radiation. With experience of orbital mechanics, From left: Susanne Svensdotter, Anne-Marie Mainguy, Isabelle Guillard, Sophie Coppin and Béatrice Bardini. space surveillance and military space, she was Director of ONERA in Lille, and later Senior Advisor to the ONERA President and is currently certainly not be the last, as although much progress President of the Air and Space Academy. has been made in attracting young women into ● Isabelle Guillard studied to become a pilot at aviation, there is still a lot more to do. ENAC and has spent her entire career at Air France, where she has flown the Fokker 27, Dr Susanne Svensdotter B747-400 and A320 and is currently a Senior MRAeS Captain on the B777. She is a member of the RAeS Paris Branch Diversity Representative board of directors in the ‘Association Française des Femmes Pilotes’. ● Sophie Coppin worked for 20 years as an Air Traffic Control Officer, where she also improved the training cursus. She is now Head of Social Responsibility and Sustainable Development at ENAC, with particular responsibility for encouraging an increase in diversity of the intake Join us as a at ENAC. ● Béatrice Bardini spent 20 years as Director Corporate Partner of Communications in a major construction RAeS Corporate Partners are organisations, both large and small, across civil company before following her dream to become and defence, from the breadth of the aerospace, aviation and space sectors. a commercial helicopter pilot. She also is We provide a high-level commitment to professional recognition, continuous professional development, networking and knowledge sharing. a helicopter instructor and an aeronautical communications consultant. The audience, comprising Society members, Branch members, students and members of the public, were given insight into the panel members’ personal motivation and determination, as well as the approaches they each were obliged to take in the face of challenges, particularly as women in the profession, that have allowed them to achieve both success and fulfilment in pursuance of their personal professional goals. 4 Exclusive Corporate Partner briefings 4 Access to our global network of Branches Thanks to the very open and encouraging 4 Free access to AEROSPACE and The Aeronautical attitude and interactions of the forum members with Journal the audience, the event lasted much longer than 4 Discounted conference rates foreseen and, on leaving the venue, discussions 4 Free accreditation costs 4 continued in the street outside. Thanks go also to Discounted individual member joining fees 4 Free meeting room and discounted room hire at RAeS HQ Ms Jade Petot, a student at IPSA, for supporting 4 Use of the RAeS Corporate Partner logo Dr Svensdotter in preparing and along with several other IPSA students, helping run the event. This was the first ever ‘Women in Aviation’ Forum organised by the Paris Branch and it will Find out more about corporate membership: [email protected] www.aerosociety.com/corporate +44 (0)20 7670 4300 @aerosociety APRIL 2020 55

Afterburner_April2020.indd 17 24/03/2020 12:03:53 Elections

COMPANIONS Lewis Cromey Kazimierz Mario Di Martino Hermaszewski WITH REGRET Antony Quinn Milan Pluecken Lucas Mathijssen Rezeki Welem Romeijn Scott Malkin The RAeS announces with regret the deaths of the FELLOWS Rybeka Parsons William Mason following members: Wayne Reddy Paul David Ellsmore CEng MRAeS 39 Christopher Holland E-ASSOCIATES Norman Henry Chriss Harris MRAeS 96 Eugene Gerstein ASSOCIATE Joanna Hjalmas MEMBERS Daniel Bellenger Andrew Allistair McDicken FRAeS 74 Matthew Cappell Guy Allison Douglas Benjamin Wyatt IEng MRAeS 89 Michael Brown Calumn Twaddle Guy Hale RAeS Final design layout.qxd 05/07/2012 09:19 Page 1 Mladen Zunic Christopher Ellis Liam McAuley Nick Sharples Dom Ferrett Mohamad Hizami Bin Patrick Carter George Holden Mohamad Hilmi Paul Scurrah Gopinath Anaszewicz Tsz Yu Yeung Rajee Olaganathan Grant Ovington Teri Bristol Gurpreet Mond AFFILIATES Jack Bishop MEMBERS Jack Wetherell Almajd Alhinai John Stone Adele Gammarano STUDENT AFFILIATES Ian Cairns ASSOCIATES James de Beauvoir- Dolapo Odunayo Tupper Alexander Ball Raghul Ravichandran in partnership with Leigh Myhill Dominic Kay

Fantastic images from the National Aerospace RAeS Careers Service Library Collection of the Royal Aeronautical Society are now available to purchase as The Royal Aeronautical Society’s careers advice and guidance service reproduction prints and giftware items. remains available and can be accessed online via the careers in aerospace View the complete collection at: website or contact [email protected] for specialist advice and www.prints-online.com 1-2-1 consultations via Skype. We are here to help

NEW MEMBER SPOTLIGHT

Sonya White MRAeS, 29 part of my degree, then joining the CAA as soon Location: Gatwick and London, UK as I graduated. I’ve held various roles since then, Job Title: Innovation Case Officer and UAM including Intelligence, the Commercial Spaceflight Specialist Regulation team and, most recently, Innovation. My role: My current role is as Innovation What is the best thing about your current Case Officer and UAM Specialist in the CAA’s role? I really enjoy the variety and the travel. The Innovation team. My main responsibilities include great thing about innovation is that everything is providing guidance to innovators at all stages new and every day I’m approached with something of development and working with companies to different. The kinds of questions I get really test my test and trial their innovative technologies and ability to think outside the box and problem solve, concepts – particularly focusing on the complex and I love getting out and about. topic of UAM. I also regularly run clinic sessions What made you join the Royal Aeronautical which give innovators the opportunity to pitch Society? I’ve attended some really interesting their ideas so I can offer advice on applicable lectures and conferences by the Royal regulations and other considerations. Aeronautical Society and I wanted to be part of an What inspired you into aerospace? I joined organisation of other aviation professionals. the RAF Air Cadets when I was at school, and What do you hope to get out of your learned to fly (before I could drive!) through their membership? I’m looking forward to the gliding scholarship. I’ve been hooked on aviation networking opportunities, as well as keeping aware since then, completing a placement at NATS as of current issues through lectures and articles.

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Afterburner_April2020.indd 18 24/03/2020 12:03:55 Society News

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If you’re not sure which grade to apply for or you need guidance with your CEng, IEng or EngTech registration get in touch with [email protected]

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Afterburner_April2020.indd 19 24/03/2020 12:03:58 The Last Word Commentary from Professor Keith Hayward FRAeS

COVID-19 – a pandemic hits aviation n the 14th Century, the Black Death came out pushing the numbers into a wideworld recession. Its of Asia and slowly along the Silk Road and length and depth is more uncertain but it will hurt and pilgrimage routes to Europe. The result was with it, airline business will suffer. As a lead indicator, millions of deaths and a transformation of Europe freight traffic was down but international airline profits from Feudalism to a wage-based economy, were up to nearly $30bn. China was expected to Ihelping to kick off modern capitalism. COVID-19 is lead a recovery. Fat chance now, even as COVID-19 unlikely to either be anywhere near as fatal to people, seems to have stabilised in China. Italy is set for a nor fundamentally shift the world economy into a deep dive and even German figures look depressing, new form. But its effects are likely to be painful to the auguring badly for the EU zone as a whole. A double aviation world. tap through the spring and summer months, even First the good news: unlike the motor industry as the virus is expected to diminish in severity with and other high-tech supply chains, aerospace warmer weather, will be very bad news for all carriers, manufacturing is unlikely to face immediate problems, long and short haul. as China as yet does not figure highly in the supply scheme of things. Effects on demand might be more damaging but that will depend on three Tertiary effects – airliner orders interrelated questions affecting the airline and aircraft Aircraft manufacturing order books are healthy, and manufacturing sectors. MAX 8 notwithstanding, the long term demand for fuel efficient aircraft seemed to have ironed out the Primary effects – traffic historical troughs and peaks of the order cycle. The economic crisis of 2008 was the last time things The Black Death moved at a camel’s pace; COVID-19 looked rough for producers; again a prolonged global has spread on high-speed trains and along global UNLIKE THE recession will take a chunk of the icing off Boeing and air routes. Unsurprisingly, airline shares have begun Airbus orders. MOTOR to fall off the roof and traffic, including high value INDUSTRY business class, is already beginning to slow down, AND OTHER especially short haul into European hot spots like And things were going much better Northern Italy. Expect more bad news on this front as for the world airline sector too HIGH-TECH the virus spreads further south in Italy and throughout SUPPLY CHAINS, Western Europe. Long haul out to Asia, with of course But who really knows? This is the first global Asia- AEROSPACE China in the van, is already also declining, backed by originating pandemic when China represents a major part of global supply and demand. There might yet MANUFACTURING official travel warnings that can trigger valid insurance claims. An immediate knock-on effect has spread be longer term and more subtle effects – increased IS UNLIKELY TO the economic contagion to holiday firms and airport political instability perhaps? Shrinkage of globalised FACE IMMEDIATE revenues as on site sales plummet. Airlines are also supply chains generally, which might impinge on some PROBLEMS, AS cutting back on general investment, furloughing staff airfreight revenues and business travel? Almost for and freezing hiring. sure, the immediate impact on LCC revenues could CHINA AS YET increase the ‘churn’ of failures and mergers. The same DOES NOT YET Secondary effects – global economic might apply to the weaker long haul airlines – mergers FIGURE HIGHLY recession in the Gulf? IN THE SUPPLY The extent of COVID-19’s predations is still hard Airline passenger and freight traffic moves in lockstep fully and surely to predict. But none of the current SCHEME OF with the health of the world economy. Forecasts were scenarios offers much hope of an early return to THINGS. already pointing to a global slowdown; COVID-19 is normal for the aviation sector.

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Covid19%20hits%20Aviation-2.indd 1 24/03/2020 14:34 THE NATIONAL AEROSPACE LIBRARY FARNBOROUGH

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