Hiscox WTPV Aug 2009.Indd

AUGUST 2009 Table of contents

Transnational terrorism 2

Proﬁ le: The Jakarta attacks 3

Worldwide terrorist activity 4 Africa Americas Asia Europe Middle East and North Africa

In-depth 8

Coming up 9

A forensic investigator examines debris inside the Ritz-Carlton hotel

INDONESIA

A suspected suicide bomber early on 17 July detonated his explosives near the Lobby Lounge restaurant in the Ritz-Carlton hotel in the capital Jakarta. A second explosion occurred at the JW Marriott (which suffered an attack in 2003) and is also thought to have been perpetrated by a suicide bomber. A third bomber also reportedly checked into the JW For more information about Hiscox or Control Marriott with the two known attackers; police subsequently defused another Risks, please contact: bomb at the hotel. Retribution for the execution last year of three men Stephen Ashwell accused of involvement in the 2002 Bali bombings was a potential motive. Tel: 020 7448 6725 1 Great St Helen’s, London EC3A 6HX The attacks bore the hallmarks of fringe extremist elements within regional [email protected] extremist network Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), which have continued to promote www.hiscox.com violent jihad even though JI as a whole has sought to move towards the political mainstream since the last large-scale attacks in Indonesia in 2005. Peter Simpson Veteran bomb-maker Noordin Top – one of South-east Asia’s most wanted Tel: 020 7970 2373 terrorists – has been identiﬁ ed as a likely leader. The attacks all but conﬁ rm Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, fears that radical JI factions are still highly active and may have revived London SE1 2QG funding and resource networks that counter-terrorism operations in recent [email protected] years are thought to have heavily disrupted. However, it remains far from clear www.control-risks.com whether the attacks signal the beginning of a new campaign in Indonesia.

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PAKISTAN

At least one person was killed and three others injured on 8 July in a suicide bombing in the Nasir Bagh area of Peshawar, the capital of North West Frontier Province (NWFP). Speaker of the provincial assembly Karamatullah Chagharmatti, who had just passed through the area, may have been the intended target of the attack. The incident followed a steady increase in the inﬂ uence of militants associated with the Tehrik-i-Taleban Pakistan (TTP – Pakistani Taleban) and afﬁ liated groups in NWFP.

While NWFP remains the centre of Islamist extremist activity in Pakistan, there is a credible risk of retaliatory attacks in other parts of the country, including the capital Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Karachi (Sindh province) and Lahore (Punjab province). Previously, the authorities on 17 June closed Peshawar International Airport following a threat against passenger fl ights, while two gunmen on 12 June were killed by the security forces following an attempted attack on the Peshawar residence of Lt-Gen Masood Aslam, the commander of the military operation in NWFP. On 11 Security offi cials examine the site of the 8 July explosion in the June, at least three police offi cers were killed and 13 others Nasir Bagh area of Peshawar injured in a suicide bombing on the Peshawar Ring Road. MALI CLASHES

MAURITANIA ARRESTS The military on 3-4 July clashed with members of QIM Public prosecutor Mustafa Ould Said on 21 July said that in the northern region of Tombouctou, though details of two extremist cells plotting attacks against foreigners had casualties on either side remained unclear. The incident been broken up and that a number of extremist suspects had came after the military in June had attacked a suspected been arrested. One of the cells was allegedly responsible QIM base in the northern Tessalit area (Kidal region), near for the murder of US aid worker Christopher Leggett in the the border with Algeria. At least 12 QIM members were capital Nouakchott in June. According to Ould Said, the killed in the operation and a number of others detained; other was planning to kidnap Westerners in Nouakchott unconfi rmed reports indicated that fi ve soldiers were and the north of the country, while one of its members was killed by landmines. The offensive came after suspected wanted for his alleged involvement in an attack on a military QIM militants shot and killed intelligence offi cer Lt- patrol near Tourine, near the mining town of Zouerate, in Col Lamana Ould Bou at his residence in Tombouctou. September 2008 in which 12 soldiers and a guide were killed. The latest fi ghting underscores long-standing security The reported discovery and dismantling of the cells, if concerns in areas where QIM operatives have a platform confi rmed, would represent a positive development for the from which to conduct terrorist and criminal activities. The security environment and particularly that of Nouakchott. group appears to be attempting to re-establish links with its The apparent swift break-up of the cell allegedly regional Islamist extremist affi liates, especially in Mali, with responsible for Leggett’s murder is particularly positive, the intent of improving its operational assets in the region. though it is unclear whether other members of the cells The government remains deeply hostile to any foreign remain at large. Nevertheless, the fact that other extremist terrorist presence on its territory. Mali, Algeria and the US cells and networks appear to have emerged just a year are conducting a joint programme to counter the activities of after the authorities claimed to have broken up a major QIM in the border region. However, the two African countries, extremist network in the capital is a source of concern, particularly Mali, are not adequately resourced or organised suggesting a persistent threat of terrorism and in particular to signifi cantly undermine QIM’s capabilities in the area. of small-scale, targeted attacks against Westerners.

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ATTACKS

Police on 18-19 July released details asserting that JI had been responsible for the 17 July bomb attacks at the Ritz- Carlton and JW Marriott hotels in Jakarta. The attacks came after the government on 16 July had increased security at strategic locations across the country, including all transport hubs. In the days following the attacks, the Four Seasons Hotel in Jakarta and the Best Western Asean International Hotel in Medan (the capital of North Sumatra province) received anonymous telephone bomb threats, though these turned out to be hoaxes.

The chief concern resulting from the attacks is the evolution of tactics by the perpetrators, who exploited a chink in security practices prevalent at most Indonesian hotels. By posing as guests and assembling their explosive devices in a hotel room, the bombers easily evaded security measures devised to prevent vehicle-borne attacks, the main method used in previous strikes in Indonesia. The bombers’ tactics will spur the hotel sector and government authorities to revise their security strategies, in particular front-of-house screening, which may now see guests subjected to more intrusive security checks. More generally, while Indonesia has in the past led South-east Asia on hotel security, the attacks will force hotels around the Security ofﬁ cers stand guard outside the JW Marriott Hotel, region to adopt more stringent deterrence measures. September 2003

JI 2003, which notably also targeted the JW Marriott. The 2003 attack refl ected a clear intent to cause mass casualties at Although it is too early to assess whether the attacks a Western target in an area of the capital with high levels point to a resurgence of JI in Indonesia, they nevertheless of security. Several key members of the group, including its demonstrate the group’s operational capabilities and ability to leader, Abu Dujana, were arrested in June 2007, marking a launch attacks aimed at vital personnel, locations and assets signifi cant blow to its operational capabilities. Later, the four in major cities, despite counter-terrorism operations. The main suspects in the October 2002 bombing of a nightclub attacks came amid a period of relative calm in Indonesia and in Bali were executed in 2008; the attack had killed more followed arrests of key JI leaders, which may have generated than 200 people, including a number of foreign tourists. a false sense of security. This, coupled with a relative easing of security following heightened levels during the recent OUTLOOK presidential election, may have provided the attackers with the opportunity and confi dence to carry out their mission. There remains a risk of further terror attacks in Indonesia, particularly in Jakarta and on Bali. Potential targets include JI, which seeks to establish an independent Islamic state in both offi cial and ‘soft’, or lightly defended, targets, such as South-east Asia, is suspected of having links to al-Qaida. The entertainment venues, tourist sites, churches and other last major terrorist attack in Indonesia took place in October areas that foreigners frequent. In addition, bomb hoaxes 2005, when three suicide bombers thought to be linked to JI are likely to continue, as they often do in the aftermath of struck in the tourist areas of Jimbaran and Kuta on Bali, killing major attacks. Heightened security measures, such as the at least 20 people and injuring 129 others. JI in September enhanced scrutiny of baggage at hotels and additional security 2004 attacked the Australian embassy in Jakarta, while 12 checkpoints at sensitive locations, will remain in place. people were killed and 150 injured in a JI bombing in August

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AFRICA

Côte d’Ivoire: Hundreds of rioters on 14 July clashed with the security forces in the southern port city of Abidjan during unrest prompted by the alleged shooting of a local man by a Lebanese national. Security personnel used tear gas to disperse the crowds.

Ethiopia: The ethnic-Somali rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) on 6 July claimed to have killed 90 ﬁ ghters and injured more than 100 others in clashes with the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) in the ethnic-Somali region. The government refuted the claim.

Nigeria: The main ethnic-Ijaw militant Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) on 13 July claimed responsibility for an attack on the Atlas Cove jetty oil facility in the commercial capital Lagos in which at least three naval personnel were reportedly killed.

Somalia: At least ﬁ ve people were killed on 27 June when radical Islamist group al-Shabab launched a mortar attack on Aden-Adde International Airport in the capital Mogadishu. African Union (AU) troops responded by killing eight al-Shabab members. Terrorism Other political violence Warnings/arrests

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Chile: A bomb exploded in the early hours of 28 June outside a police station in a suburb of the capital Santiago, causing minor injuries and damage to buildings. A previously unheard-of group claimed responsibility, accusing the police of involvement in child prostitution and corruption.

Dominican Republic: A woman was reportedly killed on 7 July when police ﬁ red tear gas to disperse protesters in the town of Tamboril (Santiago province). Separately, one person was killed and two others were injured on 21 July during clashes between protesters and police in Bonao (Monseñor Noel province).

Peru: One person was killed and three others were injured on 2 July during clashes between farmers and police in Chumbivilcas province. Violence broke out when police attempted to dismantle a roadblock erected by peasants.

Colombia: Three civilians were killed and 17 people injured on 19 July during clashes between police and members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) left-wing guerrilla group who were attempting to enter the municipality of Corinto in south-western Cauca department.

ASIA Indonesia: At least one person was killed and three others were injured on 30 June when police shot at civilians in a highland town in the Paniai regency of Papua province. The incident came after members of rival tribes engaged in a confrontation reportedly shot at police ofﬁ cers with arrows.

Pakistan: A local employee of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and a security guard were killed on 16 July when unidentifi ed gunmen opened fi re in a UNHCR fi eld offi ce in the Kacha Garhi refugee camp near Peshawar. A foreign UNHCR offi cial was also injured. The incident is thought to have been a failed kidnap attempt.

Philippines: At least six people were killed and approximately 40 others injured on 7 July in a bomb explosion near a petrol (gasoline) station in the south- western town of Jolo (Sulu province, Jolo island). Two unexploded devices were also found in the town.

Thailand: A car bomb attack in the Yaha district of the southern province of Yala on 17 July killed two army China: Hundreds of ethnic Uighurs on 7 July clashed with ofﬁ cials and injured ﬁ ve other people, including a passer- riot police in Urumqi. Han Chinese protesters armed with by. The bomb was remotely detonated as a car carrying clubs and other makeshift weapons also reportedly marched six soldiers passed in close proximity. While no group has in the area of the city’s People’s Square, where an illegal claimed responsibility for the incident, it is suspected to be gathering on 5 July prompted three days of rioting in which part of a continuing separatist insurgency in the far south. 156 people were killed and more than 1,000 others injured.

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Greece: Suspected anarchist or ultra-leftist attacks against government and corporate targets continued in June and July, primarily in the capital Athens. A petrol-bomb attack on a car showroom in Iraklion, the principal city on the island of Crete, suggested that violence was also spreading to medium-sized cities. No one was injured in the attacks.

Separately, thousands of protesters on 10 July staged two rallies in Athens over the government’s anti-immigration measures. Minor clashes occurred between members of left- and right-wing groups and between protesters and police. Protesters reportedly attacked a building containing illegal immigrants, though no casualties or arrests were reported.

Hungary: Approximately 200 supporters of the nationalist Hungarian Guard (Magyar Garda) on 4 July clashed with police during a demonstration in the capital Budapest; at least one bystander was injured. The protests were staged against the court of appeal’s confi rmation on 2 July of a vehicles. In addition to troops from Russia, units from ruling banning the Hungarian Guard on the grounds that Georgia’s separatist regions of South Ossetia and its confrontational demonstrations incited ethnic tensions. Abkhazia participated in the counter-terrorism exercises. Italy: Police on 7 July arrested 36 people in the capital Serbia: Two people were injured on 14 July when a Rome after violence broke out during a protest near bomb exploded in the southern town of Preševo, 242 the city’s university ahead of the Group of Eight (G8) miles (390km) south of the capital Belgrade. The incident summit on 8-10 July. French, German and Polish followed an attack in the Preševo Valley on 9 July in nationals were reportedly among those arrested. which a grenade attack on a patrol vehicle in the village of Lučani, near Bujanovac, injured two police offi cers. Kyrgyzstan: Security forces on 29 June killed a suspected member of the extremist Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan Spain: A bomb exploded on 9 July at the local offi ce (IMU) during a search operation near the village of Kosh- of the Basque Socialist Party (PSE, a division of the Korgon, in the Uzgen district of the southern province of Socialist party (PSOE), which governs the country) Osh. The incident followed similar operations in the town on in Durango (Vizcaya province, 20 miles (32km) east 27 June in which three suspected IMU members were killed. of Bilbao), causing major damage. Previously, bomb- making material believed to belong to Basque separatist Russia: Violence likely to have been related to secessionist terrorist group ETA was found on 27 June in a forest near and Islamist insurgents persisted in the North Caucasus. the Basque town of Castelnau-de-Montmiral (France). • 4 Jul: Ten police offi cers were killed and nine others were UK: At least 21 police offi cers were injured on 13 July in injured when armed insurgents engaged a Chechen unrest related to the annual Protestant Orange Order police convoy in Ingushetia’s Sunzhensky district. marches in Northern Ireland on 13 July . In the Northern Irish capital Belfast, at least one shot was fi red and a • 1 Jul: Three police offi cers were killed and 14 other people number of Molotov cocktails were thrown at riot police as injured in an attack on a police station in the city of Derbent, Catholic republicans from the Ardoyne area attempted in the republic of Dagestan. Approximately two hours to halt the passage of an Orange Order march. Violent later, a car-bomb explosion outside the police station incidents were also reported in Rasharkin (County Antrim), killed two police offi cers and injured 12 other people. Armagh (County Armagh), and the city of Londonderry. Separately, the Russian army in late June/early July held week-long military exercises in the Caucasus, involving more than 8,500 troops and about 200 tanks and armed

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Algeria: Media reports on 2 July stated that the security forces had arrested suspected members of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (QIM) – the main domestic extremist group – on suspicion of planning attacks on the US, British and Danish embassies in the capital Algiers.

Egypt: The authorities on 9 July stated that the security forces had arrested 25 Egyptian nationals and one Palestinian on suspicion of planning attacks against foreign shipping and oil installations in the Suez canal.

Iran: Protests against the disputed 12 June presidential election continued in main cities:

• 19 Jul: Hundreds of students staged a demonstration at Ehsan University in the south-western city of Shiraz in support of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi.

• 17 Jul: Thousands of opposition supporters clashed with the police in the vicinity of the capital’s Tehran University, where Mousavi had earlier Sudan: The government-sponsored Sudan Media attended Friday midday prayers conducted by Centre on 16 July reported that two Chadian warplanes former president Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani had carried out a raid in the Umm Dukhun area of West Darfur state. The centre also quoted senior military • 28 Jun: Police reportedly fi red tear gas to disperse offi cials as stating that the Sudanese Armed Forces an estimated 3,000 anti-government protesters (SAF) was waiting for the ‘green light for retaliation’. who had gathered at the Ghoba mosque near Shariati Street in Tehran; no injuries were reported. Turkey: Around 5,000 people on 18 July demonstrated in Istanbul in support of the continuing investigation into Iraq: At least 27 people were killed and 40 others injured an alleged covert ultra-nationalist organisation known on 30 June in a car bomb attack on a market in the as Ergenekon, which is accused of plotting a coup northern city of Kirkuk. Previously, ten people, including against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). six police offi cers, were killed and fi ve others injured on 29 June in a similar attack in the town of Hamdaniyah, approximately 20 miles (35km) north-east of Mosul. Separately, a roadside bomb attack on 6 July killed four construction workers travelling in a minibus to a dam project in south-eastern Sirnak province. Lebanon: The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) on 21 The Kurdish nationalist Kurdistan Workers’ Party July reportedly arrested ten members of an alleged (PKK) is most likely to have been responsible. extremist cell on suspicion of planning a series of attacks against its troops, as well as members of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeeping force. Yemen: Hundreds of demonstrators on 9 July staged a third consecutive day of anti-government protests in the southern city of Dhalaie; similar events took place in the Mauritania: Police on 17 July clashed with suspected Islamist provinces of Aden, Shabwa, Lahj and Hadhramaut. At extremists in the Ksar district of the capital Nouakchott, killing least four people, including a police offi cer, were injured in one gunman and injuring another; a third reportedly escaped. disturbances at the rallies, and at least 50 arrests were made.

Palestinian Territories: About 300 people on 10 July demonstrated in the West Bank village of Naalin against the Israel-West Bank separation wall and to demand an end to Israeli settlements in the area.

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NIGERIA

A 60-day ceaseﬁ re by the main ethnic-Ijaw militant Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) came into effect on 15 July. The group stated that the move formed a response to the release on 13 July of alleged MEND leader Henry Okah, who accepted a government amnesty offer made in late June. Okah had been facing trial on treason charges. Military operations in the region have eased, having led to a signiﬁ cant escalation in violence in May and early June. However, the coming weeks will demonstrate if the government – motivated largely by the fact that attacks have almost halved the country’s oil output – is committed to engaging militants in talks, or if it will continue its military operations in the Niger delta.

The truce is likely to lead to a short-term reduction in targeted attacks on oil industry installations in the Niger delta. However the group has threatened further attacks after the 60-day period has ended if the government fails to engage militants in meaningful talks. Furthermore, as Alleged MEND leader Henry Okah in previous negotiations, MEND demands such as the July announced that it would be re-imposing an overnight fundamental redistribution of oil revenues will remain curfew, after claiming that Zelaya supporters were rearming. important stumbling blocks to a breakthrough. Consequently, while Okah’s release fulfi ls a key MEND demand, it is CHAD/SUDAN unlikely to end insecurity in the Niger delta in the long run. The Chadian air force on 16 July reportedly launched air HONDURAS raids on the western Darfur region of neighbouring Sudan, where Chadian rebels are believed to have retreated President Manuel Zelaya was ousted by the military and after an attack in eastern Chad in early May. Although the forcibly removed to Costa Rica on 28 June. The development Sudanese army claims that there were no casualties, the came on the same day that a controversial referendum was Chadian rebel Union of Resistance Forces (UFR) stated due to be held on a proposed constitutional reform that would that 50 civilians were killed and up to 100 others injured. have allowed him to seek a second term in November’s presidential election. An interim government led by While the latest confrontation is unlikely to lead to full-scale Roberto Micheletti took offi ce, pledging to hold November’s war, the air raids refl ect long-running tensions between the elections but drawing international condemnation. two countries over allegations that each supports rebel groups in the other’s border area. The repeated use of air Zelaya’s ousting prompted protests by his supporters, raids represents an escalation in the Chadian campaign, but leading to increased troop deployments on the streets of proxy warfare continues to be more likely than direct military major cities. At least one person was killed and 15 others confrontations. An invasion of Chad by the Sudanese were injured on 29 June in a clash between pro-Zelaya military would not have any realistic chance of establishing protesters and the police during a rally attended by 3,000 an internationally accepted regime in the Chadian capital people in the capital Tegucigalpa. On 2 July, in San Pedro Ndjamena, while Chad – despite improved military capabilities Sula (Cortés department), at least two people were injured – does not have the means to conduct a major campaign and more than 70 others arrested following clashes between inside Sudan. Renewed Sudan-backed attempts by Chadian pro-Zelaya activists and the police. On 5 July, at least one rebels to topple the regime of Chadian President Idriss Déby person was killed and two others were injured during clashes are unlikely in the coming months because of the onset of the at Tegucigalpa airport, where thousands had gathered as rainy season, which will impede major military operations. Zelaya attempted to return to the country; his plane was refused permission to land. The interim government on 16

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NEWS AND EVENTS

These are some of the events that Control Risks is involved with or organising in the coming months:

12 Aug: ‘Managing business and operational risk in China’; breakfast seminar (San Francisco)

25-30 Sep: ‘Managing a Kidnap’; workshop (Amsterdam)

17 Nov: ‘Annual Seminar 2009’; Control Risks’ 18th annual seminar (Washington DC)

COUNTRIES TO WATCH

Iran: Political instability appears set to persist amid continued tensions over the disputed 12 June presidential election.

Madagascar: Political violence is likely to increase amid frustration over the lack of political progress following the overthrow of former president Marc Ravalomanana.

Mauritania: Further political instability is likely following the opposition’s denunciation of Gen Mohammed Ould Abdelaziz’s presidential election victory.

Honduras: Further unrest is possible following the ousting of President Manuel Zelaya.

KEY DATES Control Risks Group Limited (‘the Company’) 14 Aug – India: Independence Day; increased risk of separatist terrorist endeavours to ensure the accuracy of all attacks information supplied. Advice and opinions given represent the best judgement of the 15 Aug – Turkey: Anniversary of start of Kurdish insurgency; possible Company but, subject to section 2 (1) Unfair Contract Terms Act 1977, the Company shall demonstrations in south-east in no case be liable for any claims, or special, incidental or consequential damages, whether 17 Aug – Germany (approximate date): Anniversary of death of Rudolf Hess; caused by the Company’s negligence (or that of any member of its staff) or in any other way. ultra-rightist demonstrations likely Copyright: © Control Risks Group Limited 2009. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part 20 Aug – Afghanistan: Presidential and provincial elections; heightened risk of prohibited without the prior consent of the Company. terrorist attacks in run-up to polls

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