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Durham E-Theses Durham E-Theses A monthly temperature series for Durham from 1784 Eglise, Matthew How to cite: Eglise, Matthew (2003) A monthly temperature series for Durham from 1784, Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/4044/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk A Monthly Temperature Series for Durham from 1784 A copyright of this thesis rests with the author. No quotation from it should be published without his prior written consent and information derived from it should be acknowledged. Matthew Eglise Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Piiilosophy Department of Geography University of Durham November 2003 1 8 JAH 2 Abstract The geographer and climatologist Gordon Manley produced a monthly temperature reduction for Durham University Observatory from 1801 to extend the series back from the start of meteorological observations at the Observatory in the 1840s. He produced his extended series shortly before he died in 1980, and left it in a provisional state, with limited notes regarding his construction of the monthly means based on temperature observations from sites around the North East of England. Papers that Manley left have been examined to ascertain how he arrived at his reduction, and his methods have been fully documented and analysed. Errors in the derivation of his monthly means have been corrected, and methods that he used refined to improve their accuracy. New techniques for the reduction of means from archived data have been studied. A selection of these were implemented to improve the accuracy of the new series, and further temperature observations that Manley did not use in his version have been evaluated and introduced. Observations from South Cave, near Hull, from 1794, and from Brandsby, near York, from 1784, provide the extension of the record back from 1801. Substantial sets of monthly means from Braithwaite, near Keighley, and Jesmond, near Newcastle upon Tyne, in addition to shorter sets from other sites around the North East of England and the Borders, have been incorporated into the reduction from 1801 to improve the representativeness of Manley's series. The completed series, from January 1784, has been analysed and compared with other temperature series for the British Isles, and the potential for a daily version of the monthly series has been investigated, based upon the data sources currently available. Page i Table of Contents Abstract i Table of Contents ii List of Figures ix List of Tables xv Declaration xxiii Acknowledgements xxiv Conventions xxv Introduction 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 An Overview of the Climate of North East England and Durham 4 1.3 Thesis Structure ' 1 Chapter 1 - Gordon Manley and the Durham University Meteorological Record 13 1.1 Introduction 13 1.2 Gordon Manley 14 1.3 The Meteorological Record 18 1.4 Manley's Aims and Unfinished Work 23 1.5 An Opportunity to Complete Manley's Work 27 1.6 Summary of Chapter One 30 Chapter 2 - Background to the Thesis 31 2.1 The Beginnings and Growth of Recording Climatic Factors 31 2.1.1 The Thermometer 31 2.1.2 Thermometer Scales 33 2.2 Thermometers and Exposure Practices -35 2.3 Issues and Problems when Constructing a Temperature Series from Archives 47 2.3.1 The Original Manuscript 47 2.3.2 Interpretation 48 Page ii 2.3.3 Techniques of Analysis and Reconstruction 50 2.4 Temperature Series: Maniey's Construction of Temperature Series from Archives 56 2.4.1 Three Series 56 2.4.2 Maniey's Choice of Stations 59 2.4.3 Ascertaining Exposure 62 2.4.4 Correcting the Readings 65 2.4.5 Checking the Corrected Series 68 2.4.6 Bridging Gaps 70 2.4.7 Non-Instrumental Diaries 71 2.4.8 Summary of Manley's Methods 72 2.5 Summary of Chapter Two 73 Chapter 3 - The Data 74 3.1 Data Sources Available for North East England, Yorkshire and the Scottish Borders 74 3.1.1 Introduction to the Series 74 3.1.2 Brandsby 82 3.1.3 Braithwaite 86 3.1.4 Allenheads 87 3.1.5 York 89 3.1.6 Ackworth 91 3.1.7 South Cave 93 3.1.8 Wykeham 101 3.1.9 Abbey St. Bathans 101 3.2 James Losh's Record at Jesmond 103 3.2.1 James Losh 103 3.2.2 The Manuscript 106 3.2.3 Who Took and Transcribed the Readings? 112 3.2.4 Summary of Data Series 118 3.3 Summary of Chapter Three 119 Chapter 4 - Maniey's Preliminary Work 120 Page Hi 4.1 Material Known to Manley 120 4.1.1 Letters 120 4.1.2 Manley's Progress - Evidence from his Letters 121 4.1.3 Papers 132 4.2 Manley's Methods and Results 136 4.2.1 Introduction 136 4.2.2 1802-1805 137 4.2.3 1806-1811 140 4.2.4 1812-1818 141 4.2.5 1819-1820 143 4.2.6 1821-1830 143 4.2.7 1831-1832 144 4.2.8 1833-1839 145 4.2.9 1840-1841 149 4.2.10 1842-1843 149 4.2.11 1844-1846 150 4.2.12 1847 151 4.2.13 1848 152 4.2.14 Summary of Methods 152 4.3 Errors Made by Manley 154 4.3.1 Introduction 154 4.3.2 Study of Errors Made 155 4.4 Summary of Chapter Four • 159 Chapter 5 - hnprovements 160 5.1 A Temperature Series for 'Durham' Using Modern Data 160 5.1.1 Improving Manley's Series for 'Durham' 160 5.1.2 Combining Series to hivestigate Characteristics of Temperature in the North East 160 5.1.3 Availability of Modern Data for the North East of England 164 5.1.4 Sites Chosen for this Study 166 Page iv 5.1.5 Preparation of the Modern Data 172 5.1.6 Combining the Historic Series 180 5.2 Refining Manley's Mean Calculations for the Losh record 188 5.2.1 Manley's Assumptions 188 5.2.2 Missing Values in the Losh Record 188 5.2.3 Methods for Filling Gaps : 190 5.2.4 Trial of Filling Gaps by Climatological Estimation - the Valero Method 191 5.2.5 Trial of Filling Gaps by First Difference Interpolation 195 5.2.6 Time of Reading 196 5.2.7 Hourly Corrections 200 5.3 Improving Manley's Choice of Series for the Extension from 1802 to 1843 209 5.3.1 Manley's Choice of Series 209 5.3.2 Disadvantages of Manley's Choice of Series 211 5.3.3 Improving the Series Used 212 5.3.4 York 218 5.3.5 Wykeham 219 5.3.6 Allenheads 221 5.3.7 Ackworth 222 5.3.8 New Malton 224 5.3.9 Brandsby 226 5.3.10 Creating the Composite Series 228 5.3.11 Adjustment of Variance 229 5.4 Introduction of Data Observed at Durham from 1843 236 5.4.1 Two New Journals 236 5.4.2 Monthly Means 239 5.4.3 Adopted Means • 242 5.5 Summary of Chapter Five 247 Chapter 6 - Extension Back To 1784 248 6.1 Scope for Extending the Series Backwards 248 Page V 6.2 Data from South Cave 251 6.3 Data from Braithwaite 264 6.3.1 Exposure 264 6.3.2 Indoor Observations 273 6.4 Data from Brandsby 279 6.5 Integration of the Series Available for the Extension 288 6.5.1 Data Availability 288 6.5.2 Combining the Series 290 6.6 Potential for a Daily Series 295 6.6.1 Other Daily Series 295 6.6.2 Can a Daily Series be Created for Durham from 1784? 296 6.6.3 Future Work on a Daily Reduction for Durham 303 6.7 Summary of Chapter Six 304 Chapter 7 - Analysis 305 7.1 A Review of the Work Achieved 305 7.1.1 Investigation 305 7.1.2 The Reduction - 1802 to 1849 308 7.1.3 Summary of the Correction Technique 312 7.1.4 The Extension - 1783 to 1801 314 7.1.5 Summary of Component Series 314 7.2 An Analysis of the Accuracy and Precision 317 7.2.1 Accuracy of Original Observations 317 7.2.2 Corrections 320 7.2.3 Conversion from Fahrenheit to Celsius 321 7.3 Analysis of the Final Series 322 7.3.1 Comparison of the Durham Reduction Against Other Series 322 7.4 Improvements 329 7.4.1 Improvements for 1802-1843 329 7.4.2 Improvements For 1843-1849 332 Page vi 7.4.3 Improvements Before 1802 333 7.4.4 Summary of Improvements 334 7.5 Summary of Chapter Seven 335 Chapter 8 - The Representativeness of Durham 336 8.1 How Well the Series Represents 'Durham' 336 8.1.1 'Durham' and Temperature across North East England 336 8.1.2 An Examination of Some Notable Warm and Cool Periods 343 8.1.3 Larger-Scale Conditions 347 8.2 The Usefulness of the Series Within Current Research 350 8.2.1 Of What Use is a Monthly Temperature Series? 350 8.2.2 The Use of Archived Data as a Tool in the Study of Climate Variability and Climate Change 352 8.3 The Place of'Durham' in Evaluation of Past Climate in the British Isles and Europe 355 8.3.1 Climate Study at the Regional Level 355 8.3.2 Historic Climate and the Context of'Durham' 356 8.4 Summary of Chapter Eight 357 Appendix A - Letters from Gordon Manley 358 A.l 30'" January 1978 358 A.2 9'" March 1978 359 A.3 r'July 1978 360 A.4 27"'September 1978 361 A.5 r'March 1979 366 A.6 5"'March 1979 368 A.7 3"" June 1979 369 A.8 8"'August 1979 372 A.9 9"'September 1979 374 A.
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