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Simulation Des Extensions Du RIN À L'horizon 2030

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Simulation Des Extensions Du RIN À L'horizon 2030 Inv es t ’ l ec SIMULATION DES EXTENSIONS DU RESEAU INTERCONNECTE NORD (RIN) DANS LA ZONE III (NORD/EXTREME-NORD) COMMUNES À FORT POTENTIEL POUR LA PRODUCTION DECENTRALISEE ET LES SOLUTIONS HORS-RÉSEAUX A L’HORIZON 2030 Samuel WATCHUENG, Directeur Général EED Garoua , 05 Juillet 2013 ETUDES ENGINEERING DEVELOPPEMENT - EED PLAN DE L’EXPOSE 1. RESULTATS D’UNE SIMULATION DE LA CROISSANCE DE LA DEMANDE SUR LE RIN A L’HORIZON 2030 RYTHMES HISTORIQUES SCENARIO BAS – BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO HAUT – MONTEE EN PUISSANCE 2. CONTRAINTES DE DISPONIBILITE D’ENERGIE SUR LE RIN: LES LIMITES DE LAGDO 3. RESULTATS D’UNE SIMULATION DE L’EXTENSION DU RIN A L’HORIZON 2030 4. COMMUNES A FORTS POTENTIELS POUR DES SOLUTIONS "OFF-GRID" HYP. 2008 5. SITUATION DE L’ ELECTRIFICATION DANS LES REGIONS NORD ET EXTREME-NORD EN 2012 6. COMMUNES CANDIDATES POUR DES SOLUTIONS "OFF-GRID" AJUSTEMENTS 2013 Inv es t ’ l ec RESULTATS D’UNE SIMULATION DE L’EXTENSION DU RIN A L’HORIZON 2030 LIMITES DE DISPONIBILITÉS DE LAGDO Samuel WATCHUENG, Directeur Général EED ETUDES ENGINEERING DEVELOPPEMENT - EED CONTEXTE DE L’ETUDE Titre de l’étude: Etude de disponibilité d’énergie de Lagdo et de préfaisabilité d’une ligne Haute Tension Maroua – N'Djamena Objectifs: (pré)faisabilité technique et économique de l’interconnexion électrique entre le Réseau Interconnecté Nord du Cameroun (RIN) et N’Djamena afin d’exporter vers N’Djamena l’hydroélectricité produite par des centrales dans le Nord du Cameroun Clients: Ministère des Mines et de l’Energie du Tchad / Ministère de l’Energie et de l’Eau du Cameroun Financement: Union Européenne Consultant: Ressources and Logistics (RAL) Date de réalisation: octobre 2008 Intérêt pour Invest’€lec dans la Zone III (Nord et Extrême-Nord): Encadrement de la demande sur le RIN à l’horizon 2030 / Limites de la centrale de Lagdo / Simulation de l’extension du RIN à l’horizon 2030 / Ciblage des opportunités de développement des Energies renouvelables Inv est ’ l ec PRÉVISION DE LA DEMANDE SUR LE RIN: 4 COMPOSANTES 1. Densification sur le RIN 2. Électrification rurale Analyse historique Analyse historique de la production et des ventes sur le des ventes sur le RIN RIN 3. Arrêt progressif des centrales thermiques 4. Electrifications transfrontalières avec le Tchad Hypothèses sur les pertes de distribution Hypothèses d'évolution Hypothèses de croissance des consommations unitaires de la consommation par taille de localité (traitement spécifique de CIMENCAM et CICAM) Projections démographiques Dynamique des localités Analyse Simulation de historique du l'extension du RIN ryhtme Objectifs d'électrification (modèle SIG/ d'électrification (scénario optimiste) analyse coûts- bénéfices) Dynamique des localités Extrapolation du rythme d'électrification Date au plus tôt Date au plus tôt x (scénario pessimiste u business as usual) v w DEMANDE DUE AUX DEMANDE DUE A LA DEMANDE DUE AUX DEMANDE DUE AUX NOUVELLES DENSIFICATION ARRETS DE SITES ELECTRIFICATIONS ELECTRIFICATIONS SUR LE RIN THERMIQUES TRANFRONTALIERES RURALES DEMANDE SUR LE RIN Inv est ’ l ec ELECTRIFICATION RURALE: RYTHME HISTORIQUE Rythme historique d'électrification dans le Grand Nord (1965-1999) 120 1965-1985: 2 à 3 localités/an 100 1985-1999: 7 à 8 localités/an 36 en 1986 (après la mise en service de Lagdo) 80 24 en 1997 60 40 Nombrede localités 20 0 1965 1971 1974 1975 1978 1979 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Année EXTREME-NORD NORD ADAMAOUA GRAND NORD Inv est ’ l ec ELECTRIFICATION RURALE SCÉNARIO BAS: "BUSINESS AS USUAL" Un cumul de 24 localités sur la période 2000-2007 Extrapolation du rythme historique des électrifications (moy. 6 localités/an depuis 1985) HISTORIQUE NB TOTAL DE LOCALITES ELECTRIFIEES DANS LE GRAND NORD (1985-2007) 180 160 140 120 100 y = 5.2563x + 30.489 80 R2 = 0.944 60 40 20 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Inv est ’ l ec ELECTRIFICATION RURALE SCÉNARIO HAUT: MONTÉE EN PUISSANCE Hypothèse d'évolution du nombre de localités électrifiées dans le Grand Nord 700 600 20 localités/an •10 en 2010 500 • env. 40 en 2030 400 300 200 y = 5.2563x + 30.489 6 localités/an R2 = 0.944 100 0 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Scénario haut Historique (scénario bas) Linéaire (Historique (scénario bas)) Inv est ’ l ec DISPONIBILITE D’ENERGIE A LAGDO: ELECTRIFICATION RURALE EN SCÉNARIO BAS 1,000 GWh Demande RIN : Scénario pessimiste Centrales hydro.: Lagdo seulement Années sèches : 2010, 2020, 2027 800 600 Production totale 400 Production Lagdo Demande RIN 200 Excédent 0 2030 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 Inv est ’ l ec DISPONIBILITE D’ENERGIE A LAGDO: ELECTRIFICATION RURALE EN SCÉNARIO HAUT 1,400 GWh Demande RIN : Scénario optimiste Centrales hydro.: seulement Lagdo 1,200 Années sèches : 2010, 2020, 2027 1,000 800 600 Production totale 400 Demande RIN Production Lagdo 200 Excédent 0 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Inv est ’ l ec DISPONIBILITE D’ENERGIE A LAGDO+BINI A WARAK: ELECTRIFICATION RURALE EN SCÉNARIO BAS 1,000 GWh Demande RIN : Scénario pessimiste Centrales hydro.: Lagdo plus Bini à partir 2015 Années sèches : 2010, 2020, 2027 800 Production totale 600 Production 400 Lagdo et Bini Demande RIN 200 Excédent 0 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Inv est ’ l ec DISPONIBILITE D’ENERGIE A LAGDO+BINI A WARAK: ELECTRIFICATION RURALE EN SCÉNARIO HAUT 1,000 GWh Demande RIN : Scénario pessimiste Centrales hydro.: Lagdo et Bini à partir 2015 900 Années sèches : 2010, 2020, 2027 800 Production totale 700 Production 600 Lagdo et Bini 500 Demande RIN 400 300 200 Puissance garantie 30 MW (20 MW année sèche) 100 plus excédent Excédent 0 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Inv est ’ l ec MODELE DE SIMULATION DE L’EXTENSION DU RIN POUR L’ELECTRIFICATION RURALE (1/3) Analyse coûts-bénéfices à l’aide d’un modèle SIG Identification des candidats au raccordement, et en particulier, encadrement des dates au plus tôt : D’arrêt (ou de mise en appoint) des centrales thermiques De raccordement des localités transfrontalières Candidats au raccordement: 2008-2013 2008: moins de 20km du RIN et moins de 100 km d’une sous-station 2009-2013: incrémentation du buffer de 20km chaque année 2014-2030 Pas de contrainte/sous-stations existantes Cependant, investissements conséquents pour le renforcement du réseau: + 20% sur le coût des lignes MT Inv est ’ l ec MODELE DE SIMULATION DE L’EXTENSION DU RIN POUR L’ELECTRIFICATION RURALE (2/3) Analyse coûts-bénéfices à l’aide d’un modèle SIG Valeur Actualisée Nette: t index temporel T − t=0 année de construction de la ligne de raccordement Bt C t T horizon temporel ∑ B bénéfice du raccordement au RIN à l’année t t t = (1 + r) Ct coût du raccordement au RIN à l’année t t 0 r taux d’actualisation économique Bénéfices: consommation x capacité moyenne à payer + valeur résiduelle des investissements (lignes et transformateurs) Coûts: ligne MT pour raccorder la localité (ou le point de demande spécifique), lignes intérieures (BT et MT), transformateurs, compteurs, maintenance, kWh en tête de réseau Localités raccordées: les 10 meilleures chaque année pour la période 2008-2013 et les 20 meilleures chaque année pour la période 2014-2030 Inv est ’ l ec 2007 2030 KOUSSERI KOUSSERI WAZA WAZA AMCHIDE LIMANI AMCHIDE LIMANI KERAWA DOUBLE MAZERA KERAWA DOUBLE MAZERA BIA BLABLINE BIA BLABLINE GAKARA BAME BLAMA BAME BLAMA GANCE GAKARA GANCE SANDA WADJIRI DOULO-CENTRE SANDA WADJIRI DOULO-CENTRE GOUZOUDOU GOUZOUDOU MOUTSEKAR MOUTSEKAR KOURGUI KOURGUI MORA MORA BADAMA BADAMA DARGALA PETTE-GARRE DARGALA PETTE-GARRE MOSKOTA MAYO OULDEME WARBA MOSKOTA MAYO OULDEME WARBA TOUROU TAZAN MAVARE TOUROU TAZAN MAVARE MALTAMAYA GUIRVIDIG MALTAMAYA GUIRVIDIG OUPAI OUPAI TOKOMBERE MAKALINGAYE KAIKAI MAGA POUSS TOKOMBERE MAKALINGAYE KAIKAI MAGA POUSS DJINGLIYA BALDA DJINGLIYA BALDA LDAMA DJIDDEL LDAMA DJIDDEL MIDERE MIDERE BAO GUIVEL DOGBA GUINGLEY BAO GUIVEL DOGBA GUINGLEY DOUVAR DOUVAR SOULEDE ROUA DOULEK CENTRE SOULEDE MOKOLO MERI BOGO ROUA MERI DOULEK CENTRE BOGO MOKOLO TCHERE ABOUSSAN ZILING MANGUERDLA BEGUE ZILING TCHERE ABOUSSAN MANGUERDLA BEGUE KAY KAY KAY KAY RHOUMZOU ZIVER KILOU'OU KODEK RHOUMZOU ZIVER KILOU'OU KODEK DJOULGOUF DJOULGOUF ZAMAY MOGORDOM YONKOLA-1 ZAMAY MOGORDOM YONKOLA-1 MOGODE MOKONG DOREISSOU MOGODE MOKONG MAROUA-VILLE 1 YOLDEO GARRE MAROUA-VILLE 1 YOLDEO GARRE DOREISSOU KORTCHI KORTCHI SIR SIR SIRAKOUTI GADALA GAZAWA KATOUAL GARRE DARGALA SIRAKOUTI GADALA GAZAWA KATOUAL GARRE DARGALA MOGOM MOGOM RHOUMSIKI OURO ZANGUI BALGAM FOULO RHOUMSIKI OURO ZANGUI BALGAM FOULO GAWAR BOULA GAWAR BOULA MOUFOU MATFAI MOUFOU MATFAI SALAK KORRE SALAK KORRE KILA KILA DJALINGO LDIRI DABAYE 1 DJALINGO LDIRI DABAYE 1 DJAPPAI KATARE WIDIGUE DJAPPAI KATARE WIDIGUE LARA LARA MINDIF DOUMARAY MARAO II MINDIF DOUMARAY MARAO II MOUDA DARAM MOUDA DARAM OUDDA YAGOUA OUDDA YAGOUA GUILI GUILI MARAO MARAO KALFOU-VILLE KALFOU-VILLE NZOUM NZOUM NZOUM NZOUM KOLARA KOLARA GAMBOURA KABLA DANA GAMBOURA KABLA DANA BOURRHA BOURRHA HORLONG KOFIDE HORLONG KOFIDE DOYANG BARIBELE DOYANG BARIBELE TOULOUM GOUFGA TOULOUM GOUFGA MATALAO LARA MATALAO LARA TCHEVI MOUSGOY BOBOYO YOLDEO DOMO SOUMAYE Localités électrifiées TCHEVI MOUSGOY BOBOYO YOLDEO DOMO SOUMAYE Localités électrifiées BELI KOURBI MASSA IKA BELI KOURBI MASSA IKA BOUKOULA MANDAMA GUIDIGUIS DOUKOULA BOUKOULA MANDAMA GUIDIGUIS DOUKOULA Lignes projetées Lignes projetées MATAFAL GAREY-KAELE NOUIDAINA DABANA MATAFAL GAREY-KAELE NOUIDAINA DABANA DOUROUM KARMAYE DOUROUM KARMAYE BARLANG BARLANG LAM TCHATIBALI
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