Global Estimates 2015 People displaced by disasters Displacement related to disasters worldwide in 2014 Top 20 events with high absolute and per capita displacement Top 10 countries with high absolute and per capita displacement China Typhoon Rammasun Typhoon Matmo 628,000 289,000 Inland storm Typhoon Kalmaegi Pakistan 447,000 252,000 770'600; 4,150/1m Floods (July) Floods (1st half June) 403,000 239,000 Riverine floods (Sept) Floods (2nd half June) Ludian earthquake 740,150 337,000 236,900

Bosnia and Bangladesh Herzegovina Floods (August) Japan 90'600; 23'680/1m 542,000 707'500; 5,570/1m

Typhoon Halong 570,000

Cambodia Sudan 154'900; 10,050/1m Philippines 193'100; 4,980/1m 5.8m; 57,810/1m

Typhoon Rammasun 2.99m 19.3 million people Typhoon Hagupit 1.82m newly displaced Tropical storm Lingling 400,000 worldwide Sri Lanka 151,800; 7,080/1m

Paraguay Chile 83'600; 12,080/1m 985'300 displaced; 55'440/1m India Odisha floods (July) Iquique earthquake 1.07m and tsunami 972,500 Jammu and Kashmir floods 812,000 Malaysia Cyclone Hudhud 255'700; 8,470/1m Countries with new displacement in 2014 639,300 50,000 people or more displaced Assam and Meghalaya floods Floods (December) 367,000 247,100 At least 3,500 people displaced per million inhabitants Global Estimates 2015 People displaced by disasters

July 2015 IDMC core project team Coordinator/lead author: Michelle Yonetani Data modeller and statistician: Chris Lavell Researchers: Erica Bower, Luisa Meneghetti, Kelly O’Connor

Co-authors IDMC: Sebastián Albuja, Alexandra Bilak, Justin Ginnetti, Caroline Howard, Frederik Kok, Barbara McCallin, Marita Swain, Wesli Turner and Nadine Walicki Partners: Marine Franck at UNHCR, Ana Mosneaga at the UN University in Tokyo, Anton Santanen at the UN Office for the Co- ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and Greta Zeender at OCHA/Office of the Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of Internally Displaced Persons.

With special thanks to The International Organisation for Migration (IOM): Nuno Nunes, global CCCM cluster coordinator, and Aaron Watts-Jones and Lorelle Yuen at Geneva headquarters, as well as country staff in Afghanistan, Angola, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Cambodia, China, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Iran, Myanmar, Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Serbia, Sri Lanka, Sudan and Tanzania for displacement data contributions. And to Muhammad Abu Musa at the Nowabenki Gonomukhi Foundation and Sajid Raihan at ActionAid in Bangladesh; Carlos Arenas at Displacement Solutions and Juanita López at the Adaptation Fund in Colombia; Damien Jusselme at JIPS in Geneva; Samira Mouaci at the OHCHR Haiti and Peter Kioy at IOM Haiti; Martin Sökefeld at the University of Munich; Bradley Mellicker at IOM Philippines; David Rammler at Fair Share Housing and Timothy Tracey at the Monmouth Polling Institute in the US.

Contributors IDMC: Dora Abdelghani, Martina Caterina, Guillaume Charron, Anne-Kathrin Glatz, Kristel Guyon, Melanie Kesmaecker-Wissing, Sarah Kilani, Johanna Klos, Anaïs Pagot, Elizabeth J. Rushing and Clare Spurrell. NRC: Nina Birkeland, Arvinn Gadgil and staff of offices in Afghanistan, Colombia, Somalia, Pakistan and Chad. We would also like to thank the following individuals and organisations for their support for our research on protracted displace- ment: Roger Zetter at Oxford University; Walter Kälin, Hannah Entwisle and Atle Solberg at the Nansen Initiative; Jane Chun at UNICEF; Hollie Grant at the University of British Columbia; François Gemenne at The Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po); Elizabeth Ferris and Megan Bradley at the Brookings Institution; Susan Martin at Georgetown University; Mo Hamza at Copenhagen University; Alice Thomas at Refugees International; Megan Passey at REACH Impact Initiatives; Graham Saunders at IFRC/global shelter cluster; James Morrissey and Marc Cohen at Oxfam; Dina Ionesco, Mariam Traore, Daria Mokhnacheva and Sieun Lee at IOM’s Migration, Environment and Climate Change (MECC) and Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Evidence for Policy (MECLEP) projects; Ahmadi Gul Mohammad at IOM Afghanistan; Sarat Dash and Jahangir Md Khaled at IOM Bangladesh; Oudry Guenole at IOM Cambodia; Daniel Silva at IOM Madagascar; Stuart Simpson at IOM Micronesia; Camila Rivero at IOM Mozambique; Kieran Gorman-Best at IOM Myanmar; Prajwal Sharma at IOM Nepal; Katherine Smalley at IOM Pakistan; Conrad Navidad at IOM Philippines and Vedha Raniyam at IOM Sri Lanka.

Editor: Jeremy Lennard Design and layout: Rachel Natali Cover photo: A man holds a family photograph as he stands among collapsed buildings after a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck Longtoushan township of Ludian county, Yunnan province. At least 398 people were killed and some 236,900 people were dis- placed from their homes according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs. Photo: REUTERS/Wong Campion, August 2014 With thanks IDMC’s work would not be possible without the generous contributions of its funding partners. We would like to thank them for their continuous support in 2014, and we extend particular gratitude to the following contributors:

Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs, EuropeAid, Liechtenstein’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sweden’s International Development Cooperation Agency, Switzerland’s Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), the UK’s Department for International Development, the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre Norwegian Refugee Council Chemin de Balexert 7–9 CH-1219 Châtelaine (Geneva) Tel: +41 22 799 0700, Fax: +41 22 799 0701 www.internal-displacement.org

Please note: The displacement estimates provided in this report are based on data recorded in our disaster-induced displacement database as of 1 June 2015. Our data is subject to revision and updating based on ongoing monitoring, research and feedback. Revisions to aggregate figures since the publication of the previous year’s report are reflected here. Unless otherwise stated, all figures of 10,000 and over have been rounded to the nearest 1,000; figures of less than 10,000 have been rounded to the nearest 100. The dataset for 2014 events is available for download from our website: www.internal-displacement.org/global-figures Feedback is welcome and requests for guidance in the use and interpretation of the data are encouraged. Please contact us at [email protected] CONTENTS

Summary ...... 8

1. Introduction ...... 11

2. Conceptualising displacement in the context of disasters ...... 13

2.1 Slow- versus rapid- onset disasters ...... 13 2.2 The continuum from voluntary migration to forced displacement...... 14 2.3 Displacement risk...... 14 2.4 Reducing displacement risk...... 14 Box 2.1: Slow-onset hazards and gradual processes associated with climate change ...... 15 Box 2.2: Dynamics and evacuation patterns associated with rapid-onset hazards ...... 16 2.5 Patterns of movement ...... 16

3. The global picture: scale, patterns and trends ...... 19

Key findings and messages 3.1 Latest estimates ...... 20 3.2 Displacement by hazard type...... 20 3.3 Variance from year to year ...... 20 3.4 Displacement trend from 1970 to 2014 ...... 22 Box 3.1: “Super” El Niño and displacement in 1998 - a year of extremes...... 23 3.5 Trends in exposure and vulnerability ...... 24

4. Geographical distribution and the biggest events ...... 29

Key findings and messages 4.1 Regions...... 30 4.2 Countries...... 32 Spotlight: Bosnia and Herzegovina - Doubly displaced by conflict and disaster ...... 33 4.3 Events ...... 35 Box 4.1: The Iquique earthquake and tsunami in Chile ...... 35 4.4 The big three: China, India and the Philippines ...... 36 4.5 Small but significant: impacts on small island developing states (SIDS) ...... 41 4.6 Multiple hazards in fragile and conflict-affected states ...... 42 Spotlight: Afghanistan - Blurred lines between multiple drivers of displacement ...... 44 5. Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters ...... 47

Key findings and messages 5.1 Conceptualising protracted displacement ...... 48 5.2 The data and knowledge blind spot ...... 48 5.3 Checking common assumptions ...... 50 5.4 The problem with assumptions ...... 50 5.5 Evidence to the contrary ...... 51 5.6 Leaving no-one behind ...... 52 5.7 Spotlight cases ...... 53 Papua New Guinea: Manam islanders still displaced ten years after volcanic eruption Indonesia: Sidoarjo mudflow displacement unresolved after nine years Bangladesh: Six years after cyclone Aila, prolonged and repeated displacement continues Colombia: The long road to relocation for Gramalote’s IDPs Haiti: Chronic vulnerability and protracted displacement five years after the earthquake Pakistan: Protracted displacement from flooded land in Hunza valley Japan: Living in limbo four years after the Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident disaster US: Displaced people in New Jersey still seeking solutions after superstorm Sandy

6. The post-2015 global policy agenda ...... 75

Key findings and messages 6.1 Sustainable development for all: Including those displaced by disasters ...... 76 6.2 Down to business: Implementing the Sendai framework ...... 76 6.3 Heading for Paris: Displacement in climate change negotiations ...... 77 6.4 Towards Istanbul: Transforming humanitarian action ...... 78

Annexes ...... 79

Annex A: Methodology ...... 79 Annex B: The largest displacement events of 2014 ...... 88 Annex C: Protracted cases ongoing in 2014/2015 ...... 92

References...... 100 ACRONYMS

AU African Union BiH Bosnia and Herzegovina EM-DAT International disaster database EU European Union HDI Human Development Index IDP Internally displaced person IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IOM International Organisation for Migration ISO International Organisation for Standardisation LSE London School of Economics and Political Science NGO Non-governmental organisation SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SIDS Small-island developing state UN United Nations UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change UNHCR UN Refugee Agency USAID United States Agency for International Development FIGURES, TABLES AND MAPS

Figure 2.1: How climate change, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation can influence displacement...... 15 Figure 3.1: The global scale of displacement caused by disasters, 2008 to 2014 ...... 20 Figure 3.2: Global displacement by type of hazard ...... 21 Figure 3.3: Displacement by scale of event...... 21 Figure 3.4: Modelled global displacement trend for 1970 to 2014 (relative to population)...... 22 Figure 3.5: Global displacement and population by World Bank income group...... 25 Figure 3.6: Displacement by World Bank regions and income groups, 2008 to 2014...... 26 Figure 3.7: Displacement in countries grouped by Human Development Index values ...... 27 Figure 4.1: Displacement by macro-region, 2014 and 2008-2014 ...... 30 Figure 4.2: Displacement by region, as defined by the World Bank...... 31 Figure 4.3: Countries with the highest levels of displacement, 2014 and 2008-2014 ...... 32 Figure 4.4: The 20 largest displacement events of 2014 ...... 35 Figure 4.5: Displacement in China, India and the Philippines, 2008 to 2014 ...... 36 Figure 4.6: Displacement by hazard type in China, India and the Philippines, 2008 to 2014...... 36 Figure 4.7: Philippines - Timeline of displacement events in 2014 ...... 37 Figure 4.8: Displacement in SIDS relative to population size, 2008 to 2014 (per million inhabitants) ...... 41 Figure 4.9: Displacement in fragile and conflict-affected states, 2008-2014 ...... 42 Figure 4.10: Countries with new displacement associated with both natural hazards and conflict, 2014 and 2010-2014 . . . 43 Figure 4.11: Drivers of displacement in Herat and Helmand ...... 45 Figure 4.12: Settlement intentions of displaced households in Herat and Helmand ...... 45 Figure 5.1: Eight cases of protracted displacement following disasters ...... 53 Figure 5.2: Displacement timeline following the Manam volcanic eruption in 2004 ...... 55 Figure 5.3: Displacement patterns and vulnerability in flood-prone areas ...... 59 Figure 5.4: Movement of IDPs from areas affected by cyclone Aila ...... 60 Figure 5.5: Total number of people displaced by the Haiti earthquake disaster from January 2010 to March 2015...... 63 Figure 5.6: IDPs’ reasons for leaving camps between July 2010 and March 2015 ...... 63 Figure 5.7: Comparing access to key goods and services pre- and post-earthquake (better or worse; % change) ...... 63 Figure 5.8: Displacement following the Tōhoku disaster from nuclear contaminated areas and earthquake/tsunami affected areas, 2011-2015...... 68 Figure 5.9: New Jersey families displaced following superstorm Sandy ...... 71 Figure 5.10: People hardest hit in New Jersey one and two years after superstorm Sandy ...... 71 Figure 5.11: Needs of the population hardest hit by superstorm Sandy by displacement status ...... 71 Figure 5.12: Financial assistance allocated for the repair of homes damaged by superstorm Sandy – owners compared to tenants...... 72 Figure 5.13: Response to homeowner applications for financial housing assistance - by applicants’ race and ethnicity . . . . 72

Map 3.1: Global population exposure to natural hazards ...... 24 Map 4.1: Philippines regions affected by disaster-related displacement in 2014 ...... 38 Map 4.2: Chinese provinces affected by disaster-related displacement in 2014 ...... 39 Map 4.3: Largest displacements in India and neighbouring countries, 2014 ...... 40 Map 5.1: Protracted displacement following disasters worldwide ...... 49 Map 5.2: Sidoarjo mudflow affected areas ...... 57 Map 5.3: Ongoing displacement in the Hunza valley following the 2010 Attabad landslide ...... 66 Map 5.4: Mandatory evacuation zones in Fukushima prefecture ...... 69

Table 3.1: Annual variance in disasters displacing more than a million people, 2008 to 2014 ...... 21 Table 3.2: Large displacement events in 1998...... 23 Table 3.3: Global population trends ...... 24 Table 5.1: Checking and challenging common assumptions about protracted displacement ...... 48 Table 5.2: Number of Hunza valley IDPs ...... 65 Table A.1: Typology of natural hazards ...... 80 SUMMARY

Since 2008, an average of 26.4 million people have been displaced Variance from year to year from their homes each year by disasters brought on by natural The significant fluctuation from year to year in the number hazards- equivalent to one person displaced every second. of people forced to flee their homes by disasters is driven by The time is opportune to ensure the causes and conse- relatively infrequent but huge events that displace millions of quences of this urgent issue are better addressed. Policy makers people at a time. are pushing for concerted progress across humanitarian and sustainable development goals, including disaster risk reduction Displacement trend from 1970 to 2014 and action on climate change. This annual report, the sixth of its Latest historical models suggest that even after adjusting for kind, aims to equip governments, local authorities, civil society population growth, the likelihood of being displaced by a dis- organisations and international and regional institutions with aster today is 60 per cent higher than it was four decades ago. evidence relevant to these key post-2015 agenda. 1998 was a peak year for displacement, which correlates Our report draws on information from a wide range of sourc- with the strongest iteration of El Niño on record. Extreme es, including governments, UN and international organisations, weather events associated with it included hurricane Mitch, NGOs and media, to provide up-to-date statistics on the inci- which devastated several countries in Central America. dence of displacement caused by disasters associated with geophysical and weather-related hazards such as earthquakes, Trends in exposure and vulnerability volcanic eruptions, floods and storms. The occurrence of displacement closely mirrors people’s ex- The global data does not cover displacement related to posure to hazards around the world. Exposure is increasing drought and gradual processes of environmental degradation, because ever growing numbers of vulnerable people live in nor does it reflect the complexity and diversity of people’s indi- areas prone to hazards. vidual situations or how they evolve over time. Two key drivers of exposure and vulnerability are urban popu- This year, we have dedicated a section to protracted dis- lation growth in developing countries, and economic growth. placement in the aftermath of disasters - a significant knowl- The urban population in developing countries has increased edge blind spot that requires increased attention from govern- by 326 per cent since 1970. This rapid growth has for the most ments, the UN, the International Red Cross and Red Crescent part been unplanned and poorly governed, leading to high Movement and other international and civil society organisations. exposure and vulnerability. Middle-income countries bear The key findings and messages from each section of the the brunt of the phenomenon. report are summarised below. People in low-income countries are more vulnerable still, but relatively fewer people are exposed to hazards. That said, population projections suggest that exposure will increase in The global picture: scale, patterns and trends many low-income countries over the coming decades. The relatively low vulnerability of high-income countries does Latest estimates not mean that they are not affected. Around 1.8 million people More than 19.3 million people were displaced by disasters in were displaced in high-income countries in 2014, and this is 100 countries in 2014. explained by three factors: Since 2008, an average of 26.4 million people have been » All countries are vulnerable to the most extreme hazards displaced by disasters each year - equivalent to one person » Inequality within high-income countries makes displace- every second. ment a particular concern for people less well off and those subject to discrimination and marginalisation Displacement by hazard type » Effective early warning systems and disaster responses 17.5 million people were displaced by disasters brought on by save lives, but increase displacement among survivors as a weather-related hazards in 2014, and 1.7 million by geophysical protective measure hazards. An average of 22.5 million people have been displaced each year by climate or weather-related disasters in the last seven Geographical distribution and the biggest events years - equivalent to 62,000 people every day. The largest increases in displacement are related to weather Displacement by region and country and climate-related hazards, and floods in particular. Asia is home to 60 per cent of the world’s population, but ac- Climate change, in tandem with people’s increasing exposure counted for 87 per cent of the people displaced by disasters and vulnerability, is expected to magnify this trend, as extreme worldwide in 2014. 16.7 million people were forced to flee their weather events become more frequent and intense in the homes in the region. coming decades.

8 Global Estimates 2015 Modelled global displacement trend for 1970 to 2014 The scale of global displacement by disasters, 2008-2014 (per million inhabitants)

6,000 50 Related to weather hazards 5,000 42.4 Related to geophysical hazards 40 36.5 4,000 32.4 30 3,000 Average, 26.4m 22.3 Modelled trend 20 19.3 2,000 16.7 15.0

1,000 10 People displaced per million inhabitants People displaced (millions)

0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2014 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 IDMC Source: IDMC data as of 1 June 2015 annual data Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest decimal point.

» Eleven of the 20 countries worst affected by displacement The Philippines was among the three worst-affected countries over the last seven years are in Asia. in relative and absolute terms, both in 2014 and over the 2008 Europe experienced double its average level of displacement to 2014 period. for the past seven years in 2014, with 190,000 people displaced, Large-scale evacuations prompted by two category-three most of them by flooding in the Balkans. typhoons in the Philippines caused the largest displacements Displacement in Africa was three times lower than average worldwide for the second year running in 2014. in 2014 in absolute terms, but many African countries experi- enced high levels relative to their population size. Small but significant: impacts on small island developing » The highest level of displacement in relative terms in 2014 states (SIDS) was in Sudan, where rainy season floods displaced 159,000 Their populations are relatively small, but SIDS are dispro- people. portionately affected by displacement associated with floods, In Chile, one of the largest displacements of the year high- storms and earthquakes. lighted the benefit of investment in disaster prevention and Between 2008 and 2014, they experienced levels three times preparedness. Around 970,000 people fled low-lying coastal higher than the global average, relative to their population areas in response to an 8.2 magnitude offshore earthquake sizes. and tsunami warning in April. Most people were able to return Twelve per cent of the countries where we recorded displace- home the following day. ment related to disasters in 2014 were SIDS, of which five were Developing countries are consistently the worst affected, among the 20 worst-affected countries worldwide in relative with almost 175 million people displaced since 2008, account- terms. ing for 95 per cent of the global total. The figure for 2014 was Cyclone Ian in Tonga caused the second largest displacement 17.4 million, or 91 per cent of the global total. worldwide in relative terms in 2014. Only 5,300 people were forced to flee their homes, but they accounted for five per cent The big three: China, India and the Philippines of the island’s population. China, India and the Philippines experienced the highest levels Haiti and Cuba have had the highest levels of displacement of displacement in absolute terms, both in 2014 and for the among SIDS over the past seven years in both relative and 2008 to 2014 period. absolute terms, caused by earthquakes, floods and storms. Disasters related to floods, storms, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in the three countries accounted for 15 of the 20 Multiple hazards in fragile and conflict-affected states largest displacements in 2014. A complex mix of overlapping hazards contribute to displace- Multiple and repeated displacements in the same parts of ment and determine patterns of movement and needs in fragile the three countries point to areas of particularly high exposure and conflict-affected countries. This makes an integrated and vulnerability. analysis particularly important as the basis for policymaking and planning.

People displaced by disasters 9 Countries significantly affected by displacement related to Local authorities, civil society networks and community-based both conflict and natural hazards in 2014 included India, organisations should be mobilised and supported to help iden- Pakistan, the Philippines, South Sudan and Sudan. tify and monitor cases of protracted displacement. This is im- All fragile and conflict-affected states, as defined by the World portant, given that many of those affected are all but invisible, Bank, experienced displacement associated with natural haz- because they are dispersed among wider populations and in ards between 2008 and 2014. More than 750,000 people were urban areas. displaced by disasters in these countries in 2014 alone.

The post-2015 global policy agenda Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement The time is opportune for displacement associated with dis- following disasters asters to be better addressed in major global policy agenda Relatively little is known about protracted displacement situ- and their implementation in the post-2015 period. They in- ations following disasters. They are poorly monitored and little clude the Sustainable Development Goals, the Sendai Frame- reported on. A sample we have collated of 34 ongoing cases work for Disaster Risk Reduction, action on climate change accounts for more than 715,000 people stuck in limbo, and under the UNFCCC and preparatory work for the 2016 World points to the likelihood of hundreds of thousands more who Humanitarian Summit. have not yet been recorded. A comprehensive approach to displacement will help to forge The common assumption that displacement following disas- strong links and continuity between these initiatives, and sup- ters is short-term and temporary does not hold true in many port the implementation of global and national commitments. cases. The cases we identified highlight the plight of people Displacement can no longer be considered as a primarily who have been living in protracted displacement for up to 26 humanitarian issue, nor one that is specific to conflict situa- years. tions. In most countries affected it has multiple and overlap- People in such situations receive little attention and are likely ping causes, and addressing it requires close coordination of to be left behind in long-term recovery, disaster risk reduction humanitarian and development policy and action within and and development processes. Better data and further research between governments. is needed to create a solid evidence base for policymakers’ The increasing number of people displaced and at risk of and responders’ decisions. becoming trapped in protracted situations following disasters Hazards are diverse in their nature and dynamics. Some persist underscores the urgent need to include people displaced or for long periods and can become permanent barriers to return. at risk of becoming so in sustainable and inclusive develop- The repeated impacts of frequent short-lived hazards on vul- ment measures. nerable communities can also lead to protracted displacement. Improved monitoring and data on displacement is needed Displacement following disasters is often fraught with complex to measure the achievement of national and global policy and political obstacles to solutions. Obstacles frequently targets for inclusive and sustainable development, disaster encountered include access to land and discrimination against risk reduction and management, and adaptation to climate vulnerable and marginalised groups. Addressing the long- change. lasting social and psychological consequences of displace- In order to prioritise resources and target responses to where ment is as important as the physical rebuilding of homes and they are most needed, a common framework for collecting, infrastructure. interpreting and comparing displacement data should be Most of the cases of protracted displacement we identified established between government and partner organisations are in low and middle-income developing countries, but there and across different timeframes. are also significant examples in rich countries, such as the Special attention should be paid to collecting data disag- US and Japan. Vulnerable and marginalised people in high- gregated by gender, age and specific vulnerabilities, and to income countries also risk being excluded from solutions. monitoring the situation of people caught in long-lasting or Governments should prioritise measures to advance solutions chronic displacement. and strengthen the resilience of people whose displacement risks becoming protracted, or has already become so. They in- clude people whose former homes have become permanently inaccessible or unsafe, informal settlers, poor tenants and people who face discrimination based on their class, ethnicity, gender or age. Interventions should be adapted to their specific needs. When displaced people move on to another location during or after the emergency phase of a response, their situation should be verified. They should not be allowed to drop off the radar as “residual caseloads” when humanitarian priorities shift towards longer-term recovery and development.

10 Global Estimates 2015 1 INTRODUCTION

Since 2008, an average of 26.4 million This year, we have dedicated a sec- The geographical distribution of dis- people have been displaced from their tion to long-lasting and protracted dis- placement across regions and countries is homes each year by disasters brought placement in the aftermath of disasters presented in section four. It examines the on by natural hazards- equivalent to one - a significant knowledge blind spot that largest events of 2014 and zooms in on the person displaced every second. requires increased attention from gov- Iquique earthquake and tsunami in Chile The time is opportune to ensure the ernments, the UN, the International Red as well as the flood disaster in Bosnia and causes and consequences of this urgent Cross and Red Crescent Movement and Herzegovina. Country and regional data issue are better addressed. Policy makers other international and civil society or- is further analysed in relation to the three are pushing for concerted progress across ganisations. Section five of the report pre- countries most consistently affected by humanitarian and sustainable develop- sents our initial findings from a review of disaster displacement globally, China, ment goals, including disaster risk reduc- literature, interviews and other evidence India and the Philippines. The section tion and action on climate change. This as a starting point for further monitor- also focuses on Small Island Developing annual report, the sixth of its kind, aims to ing. We discuss the issue alongside eight States (SIDS) as countries disproportion- equip governments, local authorities, civil case studies of current situations in ately impacted by displacement, as well society organisations and international Bangladesh, Colombia, Haiti, Indonesia, as multiple hazards in fragile and conflict- and regional institutions with evidence Japan, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea and affected states, including a special spot- relevant to these key post-2015 agenda. the United States. These are summarised light on the case of Afghanistan. Our report draws on information from a in annex C along with a broader sample In the concluding section of the report, wide range of sources, including govern- of 34 ongoing displacement situations. we discuss the positioning of displacement ments, UN and international organisations, Section three presents the global associated with disasters in key global pol- NGOs and media, to provide up-to-date picture today. We provide estimates and icy agendas. These include a new global statistics on the incidence of displace- analyses of events in 2014 and over the framework on disaster risk reduction for ment caused by disasters associated with 2008-2014 period, and include the disag- 2015-2030, which was adopted by UN geophysical and weather-related hazards gregation of global data by hazard type, member states in March as a successor to such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, annual variance in displacement pat- the Hyogo Framework for Action; negotia- floods and storms. The global data does terns, and the updating of our modelled tions ahead of the Paris conference on cli- not cover displacement related to drought historical estimates to show the trend in mate change at the end the year (COP21); and gradual processes of environmental displacement over a 45-year period. The the final stages of work on proposals for degradation, nor does it reflect the com- section also examines global trends in new Sustainable Development Goals to plexity and diversity of people’s individual exposure and vulnerability, focusing on be presented for endorsement in Septem- situations or how they evolve over time. urban population and economic growth. ber; and preparations for the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit. A comprehensive approach to displacement will help to forge strong links and continuity between these initiatives, and support the implementation of global and national commitments. The overall conceptual framework and the terms and definitions that inform our analysis of displacement associated with disasters are presented in section two of the report. Our methodology for data col- lection, the development of displacement estimates, modelling and other qualita- tive research, as well as scope and limita- tions of the report are further explained in annex A1. A comprehensive list of the largest displacements in 2014 is provided A girl stands on the outskirts of Belet Wayne IDP camp, Somalia. Belet Wayne, Somalia’s fifth largest city, in annex B. Our full 2014 dataset is avail- is home to people displaced by floods that affected the region in late 2012. (Photo: UN Photo/Tobin Jones, able for download from our website at February 2013) In October 2014, thousands more were rendered homeless by floods again. www.internal-displacement.org.

1 | Introduction 11 Hail storm at the displacement camp in Kibabi, Masisi, North Kivu. Photo: IDMC/M. Kesmaecker-Wissing, March 2015

12 Global Estimates 2015 CONCEPTUALISING 2 DISPLACEMENT in the context of disasters

The terms and concepts that inform events or gradual processes and condi- Slow- versus rapid- onset IDMC’s collection and interpretation tions that originate in the natural environ- disasters of quantitative and qualitative data on ment. The intensity and predictability of Disasters and related hazards are displacement associated with natural hazards varies greatly. commonly categorised as either slow- or hazards and the disasters they trigger Exposure refers to “[t]he presence of rapid-onset, but their dynamics are better are discussed below. They represent people, livelihoods, species or ecosys- understood as a continuum. At one end evolving knowledge that draws on the tems, environmental functions, services, sit short-lived trigger events or hazards wide range of sources we use for our and resources, infrastructure, or eco- such as earthquakes that occur with little monitoring and analysis generally, and nomic, social, or cultural assets in places or no notice, and at the other gradually for this global report in particular. and settings that could be adversely af- developing and long-lasting processes Standard or widely accepted interna- fected.”3 such as drought and river bank erosion, tional definitions are available for some, Vulnerability refers to “the propensity which act as stressors on people’s living and these are expanded upon from the or predisposition to be adversely affect- conditions and means to survival. Some perspective of different types of natu- ed”. It encompasses a variety of concepts individual hazard types, such as floods, ral hazards, disasters and displacement. and elements “including sensitivity or sus- include events with different dynam- Others are more fluid and less specific. ceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to ics. Flash floods tend to occur with little All need to be carefully interpreted ac- cope and adapt”.4 prior warning and pass relatively quickly, cording to the contexts and perspectives Humanitarians tend to use the term while other riverine floods develop more from which they were developed and in “disaster”, or “natural disaster” in relation slowly. Floodwaters may make areas in- which they are applied. to crises triggered by or associated with accessible for months. Different types of Disaster is defined as the “serious hazards that originate in the natural en- explosive or effusive volcanic eruptions disruption of the functioning of a com- vironment, as is the usage in this report. can occur with little or no notice, while munity or a society causing widespread While they are more likely to be aware of others can be predicted ahead of time, human, material, economic or environ- very intensive hazard events, such as a producing ash, toxic gases, fast moving mental losses which exceed the ability major earthquake, less intense but more floods of hot water, debris and lava within of the affected community or society to frequent events can result in localised hours to days. Eruptions may continue to cope using its own resources”.1 They are disasters for vulnerable communities, threaten exposed areas over extended the result of a combination of risk factors particularly if the hazards are recurrent. periods and require repeated evacuations. that can be summarised as the exposure Disaster also applies to contexts where Other hazards may occur as a cascade, of people and assets to hazards, and their multiple types of hazard contribute to such as tsunamis, landslides, fires and pre-existing vulnerability to them. a disaster. Examples include the reac- aftershocks following a major earthquake, Hazard refers to the potential oc- tor meltdown and radiation leak from or flooding made more extreme when it currence of a natural or human-induced the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power follows a period of drought. These dynam- physical event or trend or physical im- plant in the aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku ics have a bearing on how displacement pacts2, that may pose a severe threat to earthquake and tsunami, and numerous occurs, as further discussed below. people and assets that are exposed to situations in which populations are also Displacement is the forced or obliged them. “Natural” hazards are time-bound affected by conflict. movement, evacuation or relocation of in-

2 | Conceptualising displacement in the context of disasters 13 dividuals or groups of people from their sion tend to act indirectly as stressors face in their efforts to achieve durable homes or places of habitual residence on living conditions, along with a range solutions. This is because displacement in order to avoid the threat or impact of of other socio-economic, political and puts people at greater risk of impover- a disaster.5 It refers to situations where cultural drivers of exposure and vulner- ishment and discrimination, and creates people are forced to move by other peo- ability. They allow people more time to specific protection needs.16 Specific ple and organisations, including local or consider and take steps to avoid, miti- problems they face include landlessness; national authorities, but also when people gate and adapt to impacts on their homes, joblessness; homelessness and worsen- act of their own volition in response to the livelihoods and communities. They may ing housing conditions; economic, social threats and severe conditions they face. choose to migrate well before they face and psychological marginalisation; food an acute crisis, which blurs the distinc- insecurity; increased morbidity and mor- tion between forced displacement and tality through trauma and vulnerability to The continuum from voluntary voluntary migration. insanitary conditions and disease; loss migration to forced displacement For the poorest and most vulnerable, of access to common property; and the In practice, displacement sits within whose survival options may be severely disruption or destruction of social and a continuum including “(predominantly) circumscribed by remaining in their economic support networks.17 Many of forced displacement” and “(predomi- homes, it could be argued that their de- these challenges are illustrated through nantly) voluntary migration”, as well as cision to leave always constitutes a form cases highlighted in sections three, four “(voluntary or forced) planned reloca- of displacement regardless of the haz- and five of this report. tion” (Nansen Initiative, 2014).6 Displace- ards that contributed to it. In slow-onset ment tends to emphasise “push” factors situations, people may flee in smaller to leave and migration emphasises “pull” numbers and over longer periods of time Reducing displacement risk factors at the intended destination, while in response to a gradual change in con- Exposure and vulnerability are largely each is a mixture of both. Put another way, ditions and are, therefore, less easy to the product of human activity and they displacement is a more reactive measure identify and track. Slowly evolving dis- can be reduced by government and of last resort or a survival response to asters such as the Sidoarjo mud flow community-based measures that reduce severe and immediate threats. Migra- in Indonesia (see section 5) may make the risk of displacement. Such measures tion is a longer-term strategic decision return impossible even in the long-term, include the application of building stand- to move to where there are safer condi- because they make land permanently ir- ards to make homes and infrastructure tions and better livelihood prospects (see redeemable. disaster resistant, and strengthening the figure 2.1). Movements at either end of resilience of communities and livelihoods the continuum may put vulnerable peo- so that they are better able to withstand ple in a more precarious situation than Displacement risk or adapt to the hazards they face. Land if they had stayed in their place of origin As with disaster risk, the risk of dis- zoning may also be enforced to minimise if they are not sufficiently protected and placement can be expressed in relation the development of settlements in areas supported. Well informed, prepared and to hazards, exposure and vulnerability: that face frequent, severe and increas- managed movements, however, enable The likelihood, severity and nature of a ing exposure to hazards. As a last resort, people to adapt to worsening conditions hazard or combination of hazards oc- after all other options have failed and and save lives. curring over time. According to the best community resilience has significantly The difference between voluntary scientific evidence, climate change is eroded, measures may also include the and forced population movements is expected to alter normal variability in permanent relocation of people’s homes particularly difficult to distinguish during the weather and make some hazards away from areas where their exposure to slowly evolving disasters. In the face of more severe and frequent7 hazards is high.18 rapidly developing hazards, people are The exposure of people and their To be effective, approaches need to often forced to flee their homes with lit- homes, property and livelihoods to haz- be tailored to the specific contexts in tle notice in response to the immediate ards before a disaster and both during which people are or may be displaced, threat. Others may be displaced later as and after their displacement as they and the different capacities and vulner- the disaster develops and new threats move from one location to another abilities of the communities, households evolve or initial coping strategies begin to People’s pre-existing and evolving vul- and individuals concerned. Measures fail. Their immediacy as shocks that trig- nerability to the impact of hazards be- should also address the disproportionate ger acute points of crisis make it easier fore, during and after their displacement level of risk faced by poor and marginal- to link them to any displacement caused. ised communities and households, which Large groups of people on the move soon These factors not only increase have fewest resources both to mitigate before or after a hazard’s impact are also the likelihood of people becoming dis- displacement and recover from it through easier to identify. placed. They also affect evolving threats the achievement of durable solutions (see Gradual and long-lasting hazards to their security and human rights while section five).19 such as drought or processes of envi- displaced, the duration of their displace- How “natural” a hazard is as a contrib- ronmental degradation such as soil ero- ment and the obstacles displaced people uting factor to displacement is a complex

14 Global Estimates 2015 Box 2.1: Slow-onset hazards and gradual reduce, or at least delay the onset of such forced movements. processes associated with climate change That said, research published since the IPCC report has Even gradual and relatively modest changes in climate can found that a section of the western Antarctic ice sheet has affect the frequency and intensity of hazards and communi- gone into “irreversible retreat”.10 This could mean sea lev- ties’ vulnerability to them (see figure 2.1). Higher temperatures els are rising more quickly than previously thought, making increase the risk of both drought and episodes of heavy IPCC’s scenarios overly optimistic. For those unwilling to rainfall, also known as “extreme precipitation events”, while relocate, adaptation would not be a choice but a necessity. rising sea levels make storm surges worse and increase the risk of coastal flooding. Lower agricultural yields associated Displacement in small island states with gradual changes in climate undermine rural livelihoods As with other hazards, the fact that sea level rise is one of and erode communities’ capacity to cope with shocks. a number of inter-related and dynamic processes that influ- ence population movements makes it difficult to estimate Figure 2.1: How climate change, disaster risk future displacement associated with the phenomenon. The reduction and climate change adaptation can influence IPCC notes, for example, that climate change and its impacts displacement are taking place at the same time as increases in rural to urban migration. This often results in squatter settlements Disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in highly exposed locations that lack basic amenities, leaving inhabitants highly vulnerable to climate risks.11 - - + Climate change In small island states, other gradual changes and process- Exposure Vulnerability impacts es such as the warming of sea surface temperatures, ocean + acidification and the depletion of oceanic oxygen also have the + + potential to influence mobility patterns indirectly, given their im- + Weather-related + pacts on livelihoods. Such processes are expected to contribute Displacement hazards to coral bleaching, threatening both fish stocks and tourism.

Population Displaced population Affected communities may also suffer the impacts on agricultural production of the salination of groundwater and End of displacement soil associated with rising sea levels and climate variability in terms of drought and floods. This may force them to import more food and drinking water, which in turn increases their Sea level rise vulnerability to price spikes and pre-existing pressures to Rising sea levels are expected to become a significant migrate for economic reasons. driver of future displacement, particularly in small island The IPCC concludes that more research is needed on the states and low-lying coastal areas. The Intergovernmental impact of rising sea levels and other climate change impacts Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fifth Assessment Report on small island displacement, and on the adaptation strate- notes that “it is virtually certain that global mean sea level gies appropriate for different types of island under different rise rates are accelerating”, with projected increases by 2100 scenarios.12 More sophisticated approaches are required ranging from 0.35 to 0.70 metres. to accommodate such complexity and respond to climate Rising sea levels will aggravate the effects of swell waves, change in a multidimensional way as one of a number of storm surges and other drivers of severe sea-flood and erosion stressors on small island states. risk. Wave over-wash is also confidently predicted to degrade The impact of different adaptation strategies on displace- fresh groundwater resources.8 IPCC’s report notes that tens of ment and migration will be influenced by the scale of climate millions of people could find themselves at risk of permanent change and human factors such as their cultural and social displacement as their home areas become uninhabitable. acceptability and communities’ confidence in their effective- “Twelve million people could become displaced by sea ness.13 Cultural attachment to place, economic opportunities level rise by 2030 in four major coastal areas in the U.S. and other human factors have influenced population mobility Globally, and without investment in adaptation measures, in small island states as much, if not more than environmental a rise of 0.5m in sea level implies a likely land loss of 0.877 factors.14 In Kiribati and Fiji, spiritual beliefs, traditional gov- million km2 by 2100, displacing as many as 72 million peo- ernance mechanisms and short-term approaches to planning ple. A more extreme 2.0m change in sea level would result have undermined adaptation measures.15 in the loss of 1.789 million km2, displacing 187 million peo- Ultimately, future displacement will be influenced by cli- ple, or 2.4 per cent of global population, mostly in Asia.”9 mate change and environmental degradation and how hu- Such scenarios are not foregone conclusions. The scale mans choose to address the processes. There is, however, of displacement will also depend on the extent to which still a great deal of uncertainty about the possible extent of countries and communities adapt to the threats posed by climate change impacts, and even more about how humans rising sea levels. Making communities more resilient should will respond to them.

2 | Conceptualising displacement in the context of disasters 15 Box 2.2: Dynamics and evacuation patterns expected to make landfall, and/or over similar timescales associated with rapid-onset hazards afterwards. The onset of hurricanes and cyclones can be pre- National and local authorities have the primary respon- dicted in time to allow for prior large-scale evacuations, but sibility for implementing evacuations as a protective meas- they may change strength and direction at the last minute. ure. Given that fleeing quickly from the dangers inherent in Tornadoes often develop with little warning, so sheltering a rapidly unfolding disaster can be highly risky, especially in situ, often underground, tends to be the safest option. In when large numbers of people are involved, such evacua- such cases, people can still become displaced in the storm’s tions should be well prepared for in advance, including the aftermath if they lose their homes or the devastation to their identification of safe refuge areas. communities is so widespread that they are forced to move People with limited mobility because of age, illness or elsewhere, at least temporarily. disability or sickness, and children who become separated Tsunami warnings provide exposed populations with vital from their carers require particular attention to ensure that time to flee to higher ground. This may be a matter of minutes they are adequately protected.24 to hours, depending on how close they are to an undersea Evacuations are normally undertaken on the assumption earthquake’s epicentre.28 Earthquakes and flash floods give that they will be short-lived, but return depends on the effects little or no notice of their onset, meaning that evacuations of a disaster in home areas and prospects for recovery. To take place during or after their initial impact. In contrast, early respect human rights and be lawful, authorities must ensure warnings of volcanic activity often allow people to evacuate the safety and health of those affected or at risk, and all under less time pressure, but the exact moment of an erup- measures must be taken to minimise the scale and duration tion is difficult to predict. This may mean that evacuees are of displacement and its adverse effects.25 displaced for weeks, or that they are allowed to return only Well-executed evacuations of people living in exposed ar- to be evacuated again at a later date. eas are a vital life-saving measure.26 Governments worldwide Periods of heavy seasonal rainfall and riverine and storm- have recognised the importance of effective early warning related floods often affect heavily populated low-lying and systems to monitor threats and ensure that timely notice is coastal areas. As they evolve, they may prompt successive given to all those potentially exposed.27 Evacuations must waves of evacuations over weeks and months, which also also take into account the nature of different hazards, which makes it difficult to distinguish between one disaster and the do much to determine the timing and dynamics of initial next. We identified examples of all these dynamics among displacement patterns. the displacements reported in 2014, the largest of which in In the case of tropical storms, evacuations tend to take both absolute and relative terms are discussed in section place over the hours and sometimes days before they are four.

question. The human exploitation and At the same time, anthropogenic cli- opportunities that arise over time as they mismanagement of the planet’s natural mate change is expected to increase seek to end the insecurity and uncertainty resources is an important factor in many the intensity and frequency of certain of their displacement and re-establish disasters. The decision to dam or divert weather-related hazards and the vulner- their homes and livelihoods. The ability water in response to heavy rainfall and ability of some populations as their land to move to where assistance is available flood risk may have immediate impacts on and livelihoods become uninhabitable.22 may indicate resilience. Governments and displacement, for example. In slowly devel- The best scientific knowledge available humanitarian organisations may relocate oping and long-lasting situations, it is less makes clear the urgency of action to both people from initial shelter sites or evacua- likely that a specific hazard can be singled mitigate global warming and adapt to its tion centres to more secure shelter when out as the main driver of displacement human impacts, including displacement.23 it becomes clearer that displacement is (see Afghanistan spotlight in section four). The complex relationship between likely to last longer than expected. Models developed by IDMC and Climate slow-onset hazards and displacement as- Movements in response to new threats Interactive also show that the frequency sociated with climate change is discussed to their safety and security in their places of drought in the Horn of Africa is a less further in box 2.1. of refuge, however, may constitute sec- significant factor in undermining pastoral- ondary displacement. Threats may in- ists’ livelihoods and driving their displace- clude exposure to further natural hazards ment than other issues, such as changes Patterns of movement as a camp becomes flooded, for example, in government policy.20 Emphasising the Following their initial displacement, or through exposure to gender-based vio- natural aspect of hazards distracts from people’s trajectories are often com- lence or forced eviction. Chronic displace- the role of human activity in the disasters plex, a fact seen at both the individual ment, whether long-lasting, in repeated and displacement they cause.21 As such, and community level, and within and cycles or both, undermines people’s re- an over-emphasis on hazards themselves among households. It is not unusual for silience and makes them more vulnerable can be politically, practically and methodo- displaced people to move a number of over time.29 logically problematic. times, whether in response to threats or

16 Global Estimates 2015 Repeated and frequent displacement severity of the situation. For the purpose their displacement or how many settle Repeated cycles of displacement are of the preliminary research presented in abroad. Evidence gathered by the Nansen frequently observed in countries and this report, we have used a temporal value Initiative on cross-border displacement areas exposed to natural hazards (see to set the parameters of our analysis. The is strongest for people displaced across maps in section 3 for example). Contrary minimum duration of one year was ap- borders in Africa in relation to drought to common assumptions, the early return plied as a timeframe commonly assumed and floods, and in the Americas in re- of people to their homes does not neces- for the emergency response phase fol- lation to earthquakes and hurricanes in sarily indicate the end of their displace- lowing rapid-onset disaster, and within particular. Examples from Asia are more ment. If recovery is beyond the means of which displaced people are expected to rare, though disasters and environmental displaced families and the risk of further have returned to their homes. This and degradation have been linked to people disaster and displacement is not reduced, other assumptions are also discussed in migrating abroad (see the case in sec- it does not constitute a safe and sustain- section 5. tion 5 from Bangladesh). Little evidence able solution. has been found of such displacement Displacement in terms of distance or migration from Europe.39 As sea lev- Long-lasting and protracted moved els continue to rise it is expected that displacement The distance people flee from their a significant portion of the populations Long-lasting and protracted displace- homes should not be taken as an indica- of small island countries and low-lying ment following disasters, especially rapid- tor of the severity of people’s situations countries with extensive coastlines will onset disasters, is more prevalent than while displaced. How far they move is de- be forced to move abroad also.40 commonly assumed30 as shown by evi- termined by a variety of factors, including A durable solution to displacement dence presented in section 5 and annex C whether areas near their homes are safe is achieved a) when IDPs have found a of this report. At the same time, the global and accessible, and best able to access settlement option through re-establishing data presented in this report does not fol- assistance, be it from family and friends, their homes where they lived before the low the hundreds of new displacements the government or other providers. disaster, through integrating locally in the identified each year to track how long Staying as close to their homes as areas where they have been displaced people remain displaced for, what their possible is a common strategy that ena- to, or through relocating and integrating needs are during displacement nor what bles displaced people to maintain their elsewhere in the country, b) when they obstacles they face to achieving durable social networks, protect their property no longer have specific assistance and solutions. Knowledge about the duration and register their need for emergency protection needs linked to their displace- of displacement following disasters is ad assistance. It may also, however, be the ment, and c) when they can exercise their hoc and unconsolidated, as is more de- result of a lack of better options or be- human rights without discrimination.41 tailed identification and analysis of cases cause physical, financial, social or political Whichever settlement option dis- of particular concern.31 This constitutes obstacles prevent them from moving fur- placed people choose to pursue, they an important gap that we have started to ther afield.35 People in such situations are often face continuing problems and risks address more systematically as discussed in essence both displaced and trapped,36 that require support beyond the acute in section 5. and as such they should be among those phase of a disaster. Achieving a durable Definitions of protracted displacement included for humanitarian assistance and solution is a gradual and complex process vary across different organisations and protection, particularly in the aftermath that needs timely and coordinated efforts perspectives and depend on the purpose of a disaster that has caused significant to address humanitarian, development and context in which the term is applied. destruction. and human rights concerns. They commonly include an element of As such, an effective response to time as well as a notion of limbo or un- Internal and cross-border displacement displacement requires IDPs’ basic needs certainty for people facing significant The vast majority of people who flee for immediate protection and assistance obstacles to achieving solutions to their disasters remain within their country of to be met in tandem with longer-term displacement and for whom progress is residence. As set out in the Guiding Prin- processes to ensure that solutions are slow or stalled.32 The length of time that ciples on Internal Displacement, they are durable. Such an approach should in- people remain displaced can vary greatly described as internally displaced people clude measures that reduce the risk of according to the specific context, and (IDPs).37 At the same time, in some re- further disaster and repeated displace- thresholds applied for the purpose of sta- gions substantial numbers of displaced ment, wherever people choose and are tistical analysis or research will tend to be people seek protection and assistance able to settle.42 arbitrary.33 UNHCR data on displacement abroad.38 The global data on which this Further explanation of terms can be related to conflict applies the term to situ- report is based covers only the incidence found in the methodological notes in an- ations that have been ongoing for at least of displacement, and not where displaced nex A. five years,34 though it may be argued that people flee to or where they eventually many situations become protracted be- settle. As such, it does not allow us to fore that point. Length of time displaced is quantify how many people may have insufficient in itself as an indicator of the crossed an international border during

2 | Conceptualising displacement in the context of disasters 17 Mount Kelud’s eruption in Indonesia displaced thousands and killed at least seven people. Photo: IRIN/ Contributor, February 2014

18 Global Estimates 2015 THE GLOBAL PICTURE 3 Scale, patterns and trends

Key findings and messages Variance from year to year The urban population in developing The significant fluctuation from year to countries has increased by 326 per cent Latest estimates year in the number of people forced to since 1970. This rapid growth has for the More than 19.3 million people were dis- flee their homes by disasters is driven most part been unplanned and poorly placed by disasters in 100 countries in by relatively infrequent but huge events governed, leading to high exposure and 2014. that displace millions of people at a time. vulnerability. Middle-income countries Since 2008, an average of 26.4 million bear the brunt of the phenomenon. people have been displaced by disas- Displacement trend from 1970 to 2014 People in low-income countries are ters each year - equivalent to one per- Latest historical models suggest that more vulnerable still, but relatively son every second. even after adjusting for population fewer people are exposed to hazards. growth, the likelihood of being displaced That said, population projections sug- Displacement by hazard type by a disaster today is 60 per cent higher gest that exposure will increase in many 17.5 million people were displaced by than it was four decades ago. low-income countries over the coming disasters brought on by weather-related 1998 was a peak year for displacement, decades. hazards in 2014, and 1.7 million by geo- which correlates with the strongest it- The relatively low vulnerability of high- physical hazards. eration of El Niño on record. Extreme income countries does not mean that An average of 22.5 million people have weather events associated with it in- they are not affected. Around 1.8 million been displaced each year by climate cluded hurricane Mitch, which devastat- people were displaced in high-income or weather-related disasters in the last ed several countries in Central America. countries in 2014, and this is explained seven years - equivalent to 62,000 peo- by three factors: ple every day. Trends in exposure and vulnerability » All countries are vulnerable to the The largest increases in displacement The occurrence of displacement closely most extreme hazards are related to weather and climate-re- mirrors people’s exposure to hazards » Inequality within high-income coun- lated hazards, and floods in particular. around the world. Exposure is increas- tries makes displacement a particu- Climate change, in tandem with peo- ing because ever growing numbers of lar concern for people less well off ple’s increasing exposure and vulner- vulnerable people live in areas prone and those subject to discrimination ability, is expected to magnify this trend, to hazards. and marginalisation as extreme weather events become Two key drivers of exposure and vulner- » Effective early warning systems and more frequent and intense in the com- ability are urban population growth in disaster responses save lives, but in- ing decades. developing countries, and economic crease displacement among survivors growth. as a protective measure

3 | The global picture: scales, patterns and trends 19 Figure 3.1: The global scale of displacement caused by disasters, 2008 to 2014 50 200 Weather 184.6m Geophysical 42.4m 40 36.5m 150 32.4m 30 Average, 26.4m 100 57% 22.3m 86% 20.8m 90% 157.8m 38.3m 19.3m 20 16.7m 15.0m 98% People displaced (millions) People displaced (millions) 31.7m 50 92% 91% 10 17.5m 43% 91% 92% 20.4m 15.3m 13.9m 15.8m 14% 9% 1.5m 10% 4.0m 8% 1.1m 2% 0.7m 8% 1.8m 9% 1.7m 26.7m 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 7 years Note: Differences in totals are due to rounding of figures to the nearest decimal point. Source: IDMC data as of 1 June 2015

3.1 The latest estimates Most of the largest displacements 3.3 Variance from year to year Disasters brought on by weather- in 2014 were associated with weather- As can be seen in table 3.1, the total related and geophysical hazards forced related hazards. The three largest were number of people displaced varies greatly more than 19.3 million people to leave caused by typhoons and floods in the from year to year, depending on the fre- their homes in 2014 (see figure 3.1). This Philippines and India (see table 3.1). Eight quency and size of the largest disasters. estimate is based on 695 new displace- of the 20 largest disasters of the year In 2014, 32 disasters displaced more ment events in 100 countries (see global were triggered by typhoons or tropical than 100,000 people, of which three dis- map on the inside cover). storms in Asia (see figure 4.4). placed more than a million. Together, Since 2008, an average of 26.4 million Since 2008, an average of 22.5 million those 32 accounted for 83 per cent of the people have been displaced by disasters people have been displaced by climate- or total (see figure 3.3.b). This pattern was each year - equivalent to one person dis- weather-related disasters. This is equiva- similar over the last seven-year period. In placed every second. lent to 62,000 people every day. 2008-2014, 34 disasters that displaced Climate change, on top of increasing more than a million people were responsi- exposure and vulnerability, is expected to ble for two-thirds of the total (see table 3.1 3.2 Displacement by type of exacerbate this trend further as the inten- and figure 3.3.a). Such large-scale events hazard sity and frequency of extreme weather were less frequent and relatively smaller In 2014, disasters associated with hazards increases in coming decades.2 in 2014, making the total for the year lower weather hazards, mostly floods and Disasters related to geophysical haz- than the average of 26.4 million over the storms, displaced more than 17.5 million ards, primarily earthquakes and volcanic seven-year period. people, or 92 per cent of the global to- eruptions, displaced more than 1.7 million Displacements of fewer than 100,000 tal. Storms were responsible for a higher people, or nine per cent of the 2014 total people made up 95.4 per cent of the than average share of total displacement (see figure 3.2). Between 2008 and 2014, events recorded in 2014, but only 17 per (see figure 3.2). The Atlantic hurricane only three of the 37 disasters to displace cent of the total number displaced (see season was relatively quiet, but the Pa- more than a million people were related to figure 3.3b). A third of all events were very cific produced the highest ever number geophysical hazards - the 2008 Sichuan small, displacing fewer than 100 people of storms ranked category four or higher, earthquake in China and the 2010 earth- each, and their contribution to the global and equalled the modern record for the quakes in Haiti and Chile. total was negligible. At the same time, it number of storms overall in a single sea- should be noted that small events tend to son.1 be poorly reported in most countries and their true number is probably much higher.

20 Global Estimates 2015 Figure 3.2: Global displacement by type of hazard

2014 2008 - 2014

Earthquakes Volcanic eruptions 1% 245,000 Earthquakes Extreme temperatures 1% 958,000 1.5m 8% 14% 25.8m Storms 29% 53.9m

Floods Storms Floods 43% 48% 55% 8.3m 9.1m 102m

Storms Floods Wildfires Wet mass Earthquakes Volcanic Extreme Dry mass movements eruptions temperatures movements

Note: figures rounded to nearest 1,000 or 100,000 Source: IDMC data as of 1 June 2015

Table 3.1: Annual variance in disasters displacing more than a million people, 2008 to 2014 Very large and Displaced Year mega events (millions) Hazard Country

2008 8 1.7 - 15.0 Earthquake, floods (4), storms (3) China (2) India (3), Myanmar, Philippines, US

2009 3 1.6 - 2.5 Flood, cyclones (2) China, India (2)

2010 7 1.0 - 15.2 Floods (5), earthquakes (2) Chile, China, Colombia (2), Haiti, Pakistan, Thailand

2011 2 1.5 - 3.5 Floods (2) China, Thailand

2012 8 1.4 - 6.9 Floods (5), storms (3) China (2), India (2), Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines (2)

2013 6 1.0 - 4.1 Floods (2), storms (4) Bangladesh, China, India (2), Philippines (2)

2014 3 1.1 - 3.0 Storms (2), flood India, Philippines (2)

Figure 3.3: Displacement by scale of event a) 2008-2014: Proportion of total displaced per year by event size b) 2014: Displacement by event size compared with number of events at different scales 100 1% 1% 1% 2% 7% 5% 6% 11% 11% 9% 17% 13% i. People displaced ii. Events 80 33%

53% 17% 3.3m 39% 60 65% 71% 52%

88% 52% 95.4% 10.0m 663 events Percentages 40 62%

20 41% 40% 31% 31% 5.9m 23% 18% 4.2% 29 events 0.4% 3 events 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Very small to medium events Large events Very large events Mega events (fewer than 100,000 displaced) (100,000 - 999,999 displaced) (1 - 3 million displaced) (>3 million displaced)

Note: All percentages are rounded. Source: IDMC data as of 1 June 2015

3 | The global picture: scales, patterns and trends 21 3.4 Displacement trend from 1970 Meanwhile, its latest iteration already vulnerability.4 More frequent and intense to 2014 provides a reasonable approximation of extreme weather events associated with IDMC has used probabilistic model- the general historical trend and some vali- climate change are expected to accentu- ling to generate coarse-grained displace- dation of expected displacement patterns ate the trend.5 ment estimates going back to 1970. We that are also reflected in our data for 2008 Data behind the modelled trend also continue to develop the model, with a to 2014 (see annex A.2). shows large variations year to year. This recent focus on increasing the size of Latest findings show that the total includes a peak in 1998, when almost our data sample for the calibration of the number of people displaced in 2014, twice as many people were displaced estimates. though lower than the average for the than in any other since 1970. This is fur- The model is dependent on the quality past seven years, is part of a longer-term ther discussed in box 3.1. and availability of global data. A number of upward trend in displacement since 1970. important caveats should be kept in mind. Even adjusting for population growth, Firstly, the sample sizes are too small to the average amount of displacement as- make inferences about individual coun- sociated with disasters has increased by tries. Secondly, extreme hazards occur rel- 60 per cent in a little over four decades. atively infrequently. Those that occur once (see figure 3.4.a).3 every 100, 500 or 1,000 years are unlikely to This is driven mostly by the increas- be captured in four decades of data and by ing concentration of people in exposed their very nature, they are hard to quantify. locations, combined with their growing

Figure 3.4: Modelled global displacement trend for 1970 to 2014 (per million inhabitants) 7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

Modelled trend 2,000 People displaced per million inhabitants 1,000

0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2014 Source: IDMC data as of 1 June 2015 IDMC annual data

7,000 b) Trend by associated hazard type 6,000 Related to weather hazards Related to geophysical hazards 5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

People displaced per million inhabitants Modelled trend 1,000

22 Global Estimates 2015Modelled trend 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2014 IDMC annual data Box 3.1: “Super” El Niño and displacement in 1998 - a year of extremes This year, the planet has entered a new climatic period characterised by above average sea surface temperatures in the eastern and east-central Pacific Ocean. This natural phenomenon is known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. It occurs at irregular intervals of two to seven years and lasts for nine months to two years, and it has a significant effect on patterns of extreme weather and climate-related disasters.6 There is no consensus on how iterations of El Niño will change as the global climate warms, but studies suggest that they are becoming more intense.7 The strongest El Niño ever recorded occurred in 1997 and 1998.8 It ended suddenly in the first half of 1998 and was followed by a period of below average sea surface temperatures known as La Niña.9 Severe floods in Asia, an abnormally active tropical storm season in the Atlantic basin, hurricanes in Central America and the Caribbean and other events all caused major displacements (see table 3.2).

Table 3.2: Large displacement events in 1998

Country Disaster Number of people displaced

China Summer floods across several wide areas, including 14 million10 the South-central Yangtze river basin

India June to August floods across 12 northern states Eight million

Dominican Republic Hurricane Georges, flooding and landslides 865,00011

Honduras Hurricane Mitch, flooding and landslides 2.1 million12

The scale of displacement in the countries affected also had much to do with pre-existing patterns of development and disaster risk, and long-lasting displacement helped to increase this risk further in some cases. Honduras is a case in point. In Honduras, more than 440,000 people lost their homes to hurricane Mitch, and a year later 20,000 were still living in shelters.13 Hundreds of families did so for up to four years, and though information is scarce and patchy, a number of people were reported as still displaced ten years after Mitch struck.14 Some returned to their places of origin and rebuilt their homes using inadequate materials, continuing their exposure and vulnerability to future disasters. For others, return was not an option because of the extent of the devastation. Twenty- five communities whose villages were completely destroyed by land and mudslides relocated permanently elsewhere.15 The town of Morolica was one of the worst affected. A new town was built for its former residents five kilometres away, and seven per cent of the population relocated to urban areas or abroad.16 Mitch’s impacts were made worse by decades of unsustainable development and land use, and the poor design and location of public and private infrastructure. Honduras did not have a legal framework for land-use planning and building regulations until 2002. Poor preparedness and early warning measures, and the government’s inadequate responses to the disaster were also factors. Half of the country’s population was living in extreme poverty before Mitch struck, and for some their level of poverty increased in its aftermath.17 Disasters have in the region also tend to increase food insecurity, and displaced families in Honduras suffered a serious nutritional crisis after the hurricane.18 In recognition of the country’s high exposure to natural hazards and the links between environmental degradation, high poverty levels and increased vulnerability to disasters, the government has committed to strengthening existing legal and institutional frameworks to improve disaster risk management. The challenges to implementation, however, are great. As a new El Niño episode continues in 2015, how many people will be displaced by weather-related disasters and where is unknown. It is not even certain that the phenomenon will play out as it has in the past. What is certain, however, is that there are now many more people living in hazard-prone areas around the world that may be affected. No matter how hazards manifest as a result of El Niño, changes in exposure and vulnerability have already increased the risk of disasters and displacement.

3 | The global picture: scales, patterns and trends 23 3.5 Trends in exposure and Population exposure data indicates growth rate of urban populations in de- vulnerability how many people reside in areas that veloping countries has grown faster still Displacement patterns are determined have historically experienced floods, (326 per cent increase). In Haiti, Niger, by countries’ exposure and vulnerability to storms, landslides, earthquakes or other Nigeria and South Sudan, for example, natural hazards. Hazard patterns at the hazards. Global exposure data is shown the urban population has more than dou- global level have not changed significant- on map 3.1 below. As will be seen in sec- bled since 2000. ly over the relatively short period covered tion 4, the distribution of displacement Most modern urban centres were by our displacement data, but exposure closely mirrors population exposure. founded centuries ago based on consid- and vulnerability are constantly shifting. This data indicates how many people erations of defence, agricultural viability are exposed at a particular point in time, and transport. These factors drove hu- Population growth in hazard-prone but it does not explain how things came to mans to settle in areas prone to haz- areas, particularly urban centres in be the way they are. For that we need to ards, along coasts and rivers, on flood developing countries understand the processes and historical plains and in seismically active areas. Significantly more people are exposed factors that drive exposure, including eco- When urban growth in such areas is well to hazards and affected by disasters to- nomic and population growth, particularly managed, the risk of displacement may day than in 1970, and more people are in urban areas. increase only modestly. In many devel- becoming displaced as a result. The pri- As shown in table 3.3, the global pop- oping countries, however, urban growth mary reason for these increases is that ulation has grown by 96 per cent since has been rapid, unplanned and poorly more vulnerable people are living in areas 1970. Urban populations have grown twice governed, leading to high exposure and prone to hazards than ever before. as fast (187 per cent increase) and the vulnerability.

Map 3.1: Global population exposure to natural hazards

Average no. of people exposed per pixel * No Data 1.1 140 19,000 2,440,000

Note: The UN International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) exposure data refers to the population as of July 2011 with a resolution of 30” (approx. 1 km at equator), which has been adjusted to match with UN official data using World Population Prospects. Source: UNISDR 2015

Table 3.3: Global population trends 1970 2014 Percentage increase

World population 3.7 billion 7.24 billion 96%

Urban population 1.35 billion 3.88 billion 187%

Urban population in developing countries 0.68 billion 2.9 billion 326% Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2014

24 Global Estimates 2015 While more resilient families may be income countries. Lower middle-income People in low-income countries are able to manage their exposure to less in- countries make up 36 per cent of the more vulnerable still and relatively less tense hazards such as seasonal floods or world’s population, but accounted for 61 exposed. They account for less of the small earthquakes, these events can be a per cent of displacement in 2014 and 46.8 global population and have not yet seen significant burden for the poorest families per cent between 2008 and 2014. Low- the rates of growth of middle-income who have few resources to prepare for income countries were also significantly countries. That said, population projec- and recover from them and prevent their affected, with around 1.4 million people tions suggest that exposure will increase recurrence. For example, large numbers displaced in 2014 and 16.7 million people in many low-income countries over the of people in the Philippines, India, Nige- between 2008 and 2014 (see figure 3.5). coming decades, particularly in Africa. ria and other countries live in coastal or Figure 3.6 shows that displacement Japan and high-income countries riverine floodplains. levels between 2008-2014 have been par- in Europe and North America all have Settlement in these areas is due to their ticularly high in middle-income countries large populations exposed to hazards close proximity to livelihood opportunities in east Asia and the Pacific and south but relatively low levels of displacement. and the lack of available land in safer ar- Asia. A similar pattern emerges when it Nevertheless, some high-income coun- eas. In this precarious situation, they are is viewed relative to countries’ HDI rank- tries have significant absolute levels of exposed and vulnerable to frequent flood- ings. Most displacement takes place in displacement, with 1.8 million people dis- ing and, due to the lack of viable alterna- countries in the third and fourth quintiles, placed in 2014 (see figure 3.5). tives, often choose to return to the same and comparatively little in those with the There are several reasons that high-in- area after having been displaced during highest and lowest levels of human de- come countries experience displacement. a disaster. Their situation becomes even velopment (see figure 3.7). First, low vulnerability does not mean more acute when displacement is repeated Exposure has increased more quickly that these countries are not affected by and frequent, potentially trapping them in a than vulnerability has been reduced. The hazards - particularly large ones such as cycle of chronic poverty and disaster risk.19 urban population boom in middle-income major tsunamis, category 5 cyclones and countries means that rapidly increasing severe earthquakes. Economic growth numbers of people are exposed to haz- Inequality within high-income coun- Developing countries accounted for ards, and many of them remain vulner- tries also makes displacement a particu- 91 per cent of global displacement in 2014 able. A roughly equal number of people lar concern for people less well off and and 95 per cent over the seven-year pe- in Japan and the Philippines are exposed those subject to discrimination and mar- riod (see figure 3.5). Among developing to typhoons, for example. However, as this ginalisation. Examples include people still countries, the link between economic report has shown, the Philippines experi- displaced in the US following superstorm development and displacement is under- ences much higher levels of displacement Sandy in 2009 and others still displaced scored by the fact that most displacement because its exposed population is more since 2011 by the flood disaster in Canada occurs in middle-income rather than low- vulnerable to this hazard. (see section five on protracted displace- ment situations). Lastly, in high-income countries, ef- Figure 3.5: Global displacement and population by World Bank income group fective live-saving early warning systems and disaster response result in fewer dis- DISPLACEMENT POPULATION aster fatalities but increase the number of survivors who are displaced as a con- 2008-2014 2014 sequence. The case of Chile’s response to the Iquique earthquake and tsunami warning in 2014 is a case in point, as fur- 61% 34% 46.8% ther discussed in section four). 11.7m 36% 2.4b 86.3m 39% 2.5b 72.0m 22.3% 4.3m 18% 1.2b

1.8m 5.2% 9.5m 9.4% 12% 0.8b 9% 16.7m 7.3% 1.4m

Developing countries Upper middle income High income countries Lower middle income Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest decimal point Low income Source: IDMC data as of 1 June 2015

3 | The global picture: scales, patterns and trends 25 Figure 3.6: Displacement by World Bank regions and income groups, 2008 to 2014

70

60

50

40

30

People displaced (millions) 20

10 Upper middle income 0 Lower middle income Low income High income South Asia East Asia & Pacific

Sub-Saharan Africa North America

Latin America & Caribbean Europe & central Asia

Middle East & north Africa

Figure 3.7: Displacement in countries grouped by Human Development Index values

a) Total number of people displaced, 2008-2014 b) Relative number displaced, annual average for 2008-2014 compared with 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008- 2014 average 2014 80 6

70 5 60 4 50

40 3

30 2 People displaced (millions) 20 1

10 People displaced per million inhabitants (thousands)

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 HDI country quintile HDI country quintile

Note: Quintile 1 represents countries with the highest levels of human development. Source: UNDP, Human Development Report 2014; IDMC data as of 1 June 2015

26 Global Estimates 2015

A woman stands next to a destroyed hut following Cyclone Hudhud’s devastating impact in India during October 2014. Photo (cropped): All Hands Volunteers, November 2014, https://flic.kr/p/pU64Y1

28 Global Estimates 2015 GEOGRAPHICAL 4 DISTRIBUTION AND THE BIGGEST EVENTS

Key findings and messages total. The figure for 2014 was 17.4 million, disasters in 2014 were SIDS, of which or 91 per cent of the global total. five were among the 20 worst-affected Displacement by region and country countries worldwide in relative terms. Asia is home to 60 per cent of the The big three: China, India and the Cyclone Ian in Tonga caused the sec- world’s population, but accounted for Philippines ond largest displacement worldwide in 87 per cent of the people displaced by China, India and the Philippines expe- relative terms in 2014. Only 5,300 peo- disasters worldwide in 2014. 16.7 million rienced the highest levels of displace- ple were forced to flee their homes, but people were forced to flee their homes ment in absolute terms, both in 2014 and they accounted for five per cent of the in the region. for the 2008 to 2014 period. island’s population. » Eleven of the 20 countries worst af- Disasters related to floods, storms, Haiti and Cuba have had the highest fected by displacement over the last earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in levels of displacement among SIDS over seven years are in Asia. the three countries accounted for 15 of the past seven years in both relative and Europe experienced double its aver- the 20 largest displacements in 2014. absolute terms, caused by earthquakes, age level of displacement for the past Multiple and repeated displacements floods and storms. seven years in 2014, with 190,000 people in the same parts of the three countries displaced, most of them by flooding in point to areas of particularly high expo- Multiple hazards in fragile and conflict- the Balkans. sure and vulnerability. affected states Displacement in Africa was three times The Philippines was among the three A complex mix of overlapping hazards lower than average in 2014 in absolute worst-affected countries in relative and contribute to displacement and deter- terms, but many African countries ex- absolute terms, both in 2014 and over mine patterns of movement and needs perienced high levels relative to their the 2008 to 2014 period. in fragile and conflict-affected coun- population size. Large-scale evacuations prompted by tries. This makes an integrated analysis » The highest level of displacement in two category-three typhoons in the particularly important as the basis for relative terms in 2014 was in Sudan, Philippines caused the largest displace- policymaking and planning. where rainy season floods displaced ments worldwide for the second year Countries significantly affected by dis- 159,000 people. running in 2014. placement related to both conflict and In Chile, one of the largest displace- natural hazards in 2014 included India, ments of the year highlighted the ben- Small but significant: impacts on small Pakistan, the Philippines, South Sudan efit of investment in disaster preven- island developing states (SIDS) and Sudan. tion and preparedness. Around 970,000 Their populations are relatively small, All fragile and conflict-affected states, people fled low-lying coastal areas in but SIDS are disproportionately af- as defined by the World Bank, expe- response to an 8.2 magnitude offshore fected by displacement associated with rienced displacement associated with earthquake and tsunami warning in floods, storms and earthquakes. natural hazards between 2008 and 2014. April. Most people were able to return Between 2008 and 2014, they experi- More than 750,000 people were dis- home the following day. enced levels three times higher than the placed by disasters in these countries Developing countries are consistently global average, relative to their popula- in 2014 alone. the worst affected, with almost 175 mil- tion sizes. lion people displaced since 2008, ac- Twelve per cent of the countries where counting for 95 per cent of the global we recorded displacement related to

4 | Geographical distribution and the biggest events 29 4.1 Regions between 2008 and 2014. In Africa the events that happen relatively infrequently. As in previous years, Asia was worst figure was almost three time lower, with Given that some of these events only affected by displacement associated with 769,700 people displaced, or four per cent occur once in 500 years, a seven-year disasters in 2014. An estimated 16.7 million of the global total. sample is tiny and not necessarily rep- people were forced to flee their homes, An estimated 1.6 million people fled resentative. accounting for 87 per cent of the global their homes in the Americas, accounting World Bank definitions for geographic total (see figure 4.1). The region was also for 8.3 per cent of the global total, but the regions provide an alternative view of the disproportionately affected relative to its region had the second highest displace- global distribution of displacement as- population size. ment level in relative terms. In Oceania, sociated with disasters. East Asia and Displacement in Europe accounted for 39,200 people were displaced, accounting the Pacific stands out as the region less than one per cent of the global total for less than one per cent of the global with the highest displacement levels in in 2014, with 190,000 people displaced. total, but the region’s displacement level relative terms. South Asia, while still com- The figure was roughly double the an- was higher than in Africa and Europe in paratively high in absolute terms, is less nual average for the region since 2008, relative terms (see figure 4.1). than half the figure for East Asia and the the result largely of severe flooding in the That regional figures for 2014 should Pacific. Relative to population size, the Balkans. be well above or below the 2008-2014 displacement level in Latin America and In all other regions, displacement in average is unsurprising. Figures are in- the Caribbean is much more prominent 2014 was lower than the annual average fluenced significantly by large and mega- (see figure 4.2).

Figure 4.1: Displacement by macro-region, 2014 and 2008-2014

a) Total people displaced in 2014 b) Average number displaced per year (2008-2014)

8.3% 1.6m 10.0% 2.6m 86.5% 4.0% 769,700 16.7m 82.0% <1.0% 190,000 21.5m 8.0% 2.1m 0.2% 39,200 0.3% 86,700 0.2% 47,600

Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania

c) 2008-2014 average compared to 2014 (relative to population) 6 2008- 2014 average 2014 5

4

3

2

1

People displaced per million inhabitants (thousands) 0 Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania

Note: Percentages are rounded to the nearest one decimal place Source: IDMC estimates as of 1 June 2015

30 Global Estimates 2015 Figure 4.2: Displacement by region, as defined by the World Bank

15 a) Absolute number of people displaced 2008-2014 average 2008- 2014 average 12 2014

9

6 People displaced (millions)

3

0 East Asia & Pacific South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America North America Europe & Middle East & & Caribbean central Asia north Africa

b) Relative number of people displaced 7,000 2008- 2014 average 2014 6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000 People displaced per million inhabitants

1,000

0 East Asia & Pacific South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America North America Europe & Middle East & & Caribbean central Asia north Africa Source: IDMC data as of 1 June 2015

4 | Geographical distribution and the biggest events 31 4.2 Countries Only three African countries – Ethio- in a continental African country to be The number of people displaced by pia, South Sudan and Sudan – were ranked among the largest absolute and country varies significantly between and among the 20 worst affected in abso- per capita displacements of 2014. within regions. Eleven of the 20 countries lute terms in 2014. The region features with the highest numbers of people dis- more prominently when displacement is placed in the period 2008-2014 were in measured in relative terms, accounting Asia, with country totals ranging from for five of the 20 worst affected coun- two million to 58 million. The remainder tries in 2014 and six between 2008 and include six countries in the Americas, 2014. Unusually, seasonal floods in Sudan, including the US, as well as Nigeria and one of the world’s poorest and conflict- Niger in Africa (see figure 4.3.a). affected countries, was the only event

Figure 4.3 Countries with the highest levels of displacement, 2014 and 2008-2014 Thousands (per million inhabitants) Thousands (per million inhabitants) 250 200 150 100 50 0 2008-2014 0 50 100 150 200 250 China Philippines India Haiti Philippines Chile Pakistan Cuba Nigeria Sri Lanka Bangladesh Pakistan Colombia Palau United States Colombia Chile Samoa Indonesia Fiji Thailand Namibia Myanmar Niger Japan Chad Sri Lanka Tonga Vietnam Myanmar Mexico South Sudan Haiti Benin Brazil Thailand Cuba China Niger Nigeria 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Millions (people) Millions (people) Absolute scale a) Ranked by absolute number displaced Relative scale b) Ranked by relative number displaced

Thousands (per million inhabitants) Thousands (per million inhabitants) 50 40 30 20 10 0 2014 0 10 20 30 40 50 Philippines Philippines China Chile India Tonga Chile BiH Indonesia Marshall Is. Pakistan Bolivia Japan Comoros Bangladesh Solomon Is. Malaysia Paraguay Sudan South Sudan Bolivia Cambodia Cambodia Malaysia Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Brazil Nicaragua South Sudan Japan BiH Sudan Paraguay Cabo Verde Nepal Pakistan Myanmar Croatia Ethiopia Somalia 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Millions (people) Millions (people)

Source: IDMC Disaster-Induced Displacement Database as of 1 June 2015

32 Global Estimates 2015 SPOTLIGHT

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Doubly displaced by conflict and disaster

In May 2014, Bosnia and Herzegovina floods and landslides have been put in with reconstruction. This made it harder (BiH) suffered its heaviest recorded place. for Roma to rebuild their lives compared rainfall in 120 years. The Bosna, Drina, Some of those displaced were par- to other IDPs. Una, Sava, Sana and Vrbas rivers and ticularly vulnerable, including IDPs and re- The fact that the government and the their tributaries burst their banks, and the turnees who had fled their homes during international community prioritised IDPs’ deluge also caused a series of landslides. the conflict, survivors of wartime sexual return to their places of origin after the Around 90,000 people were displaced, violence and people injured by landmines. war has also meant that those who did and 45,000 homes in around 80 munici- Reliable estimates for each group are un- not wish to do so, and chose not to live in palities were damaged or destroyed.2 available, but reports suggest that 700 collective centres, have been offered less Further flooding and landslides hit many homes belonging to “refugees” from the assistance.11 In its absence, many of poor- of the same areas in August 2014, dis- war were destroyed,6 and that more than est among them have settled in hazard- placing some people for a second time.3 1,500 people were evacuated from collec- prone areas. These are located in low- More than 40,000 sought refuge in tem- tive centres in Bijeljina and Doboj, which lands near riverbanks prone to flooding porary accommodation. More than 70 per mainly house IDPs.7 and on hillsides susceptible to landslides. cent of the areas affected had previously The floods also displaced more than More than 75 per cent of all housing been laid with landmines, some of which 1,000 families from BiH’s Roma minority, units built outside areas deemed residen- shifted, and animal carcasses and heavy the country’s most disadvantaged group, tial by spatial plans and zoning regula- metals from industrial sites contaminated which suffers serious discrimination.8 tions, both before and after the war, were the water supply.4 There is no indication as to whether any constructed without permits and were not In a display of neighbourly coopera- of the Roma families had also been dis- formally registered.12 As a result, residents tion and support not seen since before placed during the conflict, but they were do not have property rights and face the the 1992 to 1995 war, volunteers from dif- “particularly heavily hit” given their pre- threat of eviction.13 The use of cheap con- ferent communities across the country existing socio-economic vulnerabilities.9 struction materials and unskilled labour came to help clear the debris and dig Most if not all struggled to secure an in- makes such buildings less resistant to out homes. Helicopters, boats, industrial come and decent housing even before natural hazards,14 and may even have con- water pumps and emergency personnel the flooding and landslides. tributed to the 2014 landslides.15 were brought in from other parts of the A number of factors make IDPs who In the aftermath of the floods and Balkans and beyond. In 2014, BiH and fled the 1990s conflict more vulnerable landslides, the process of selecting ben- Serbia received more than $35 million to secondary displacement triggered by eficiaries for housing assistance targeted in international funding, around four per disasters. Some have become less re- people with legally registered homes. It cent of the $890 million pledged at a July silient over time, because they have not did not expressly exclude those living in 2014 donor conference following the first been eligible for government assistance. unregistered buildings, but focused on bout of flooding.5 This is particularly true for Roma IDPs, units that could be made legal. This also Alongside the delivery of humanitar- many of whom lack the birth certificates kick-started a broad legalisation process ian and development assistance, recon- and other identity documents needed to in which spatial plans were amended to struction has taken disaster risk reduc- apply.10 Given that most lived in informal incorporate renovated dwellings. tion guidelines into account. Housing settlements before the conflict, neither At the end of 2014, after issuing a risk assessments have been carried out, did they have the proof of tenure required public call for people whose property and measures to mitigate the effects of to access property restitution or support had been damaged or destroyed to come

4 | Geographical distribution and the biggest events 33 forward, the municipalities of Pascima, tection treaties and regional initiatives.17 to identifying those most at risk and ad- Slavinovići, Solina and Simin Han trans- Political rivalries also impede emer- dressing their protection and assistance ferred land ownership to 25 families with- gency responses and delay reconstruc- needs. The impact of the 2014 flooding out charge. Those with homes in areas tion. Deadlines for compliance with the and landslides shows how the failure to prone to hazards were not eligible, howev- EU flood directive - which includes risk do so increases their socio-economic er, leaving many IDPs who settled in such assessments, mapping and the establish- vulnerability, leading to their secondary places after the war doubly displaced. In ment of risk management plans - have displacement. the absence of data on this group, there been missed, and an action plan for the As such, the selection of beneficiar- is no estimate of their number. Sava river basin drawn up after flooding ies for assistance should include multiple National responses to disasters in BiH in 2010 was never implemented.18 Many of displacement as a criteria for vulnerability. tend to be fragmented and inadequate in the areas affected in 2010 were also the Helping IDPs to achieve durable solutions terms of prevention. There is no national worst hit by the 2014 floods and landslides, would also improve their resilience to fu- disaster risk reduction policy, and respon- and the government acknowledged at ture hazards, and the simultaneous imple- sibilities and capacities are delegated to the end of 2014 that “the largest problem mentation of disaster preparedness and the entity, canton or municipality.16 The which caused flooding disasters in BiH prevention measures would go a long way absence of a state-level body responsi- [sic] lies exactly in illegal construction and to ensuring that the trauma of displace- ble for the environment and water, and inadequate infrastructure maintenance”.19 ment is not relived. the existence of separate laws for the The longstanding challenges inherent water sector in the Federation of Bosnia in assisting protracted and marginalised and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska, IDPs multiply when left unaddressed. Bosnians wait for assistance, having been displaced complicate the country’s participation in Up-to-date disaggregated data on their by floods. Photo: EC/ECHO/EEAS/EU Delegation multilateral environmental and water pro- needs, capacities and locations is crucial BiH, May 2014, https://flic.kr/p/nEELY9

34 Global Estimates 2015 4.3 Events Box 4.1 The Iquique earthquake and tsunami in Chile In figure 4.4, the largest displacements The displacement associated with an 8.2 magnitude earthquake off the coast of 2014 are ranked in both absolute and of Chile near the town of Iquique on 1 April was the only one of the 20 largest relative terms to take differences in na- events of 2014 not to have occurred in Asia. Chile sits on the so-called Ring of tional population sizes into account. Mass Fire, an arc of fault lines and volcanoes circling the Pacific basin, and as such displacements put enormous pressure is prone to frequent earthquakes. on the capacities and resources of gov- The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre issued several alerts in Chile and other ernments, local authorities and affected countries in the region, and continued to monitor sea levels as hundreds of communities. The largest of the year are aftershocks followed. Nearly one million people were evacuated from low-lying further discussed below. coastal areas, according to Chile’s National Emergency Management Office.20 Iquique was struck by tsunami waves of up to 2.11 metres, fires and small landslides were reported and 13,000 homes, many of them adobe and masonry built, were damaged.21 Considering the strength of the earthquake, however, the tsunami it triggered was relatively small and the overall damage caused relatively limited.22 Most people were able to return to their homes the following day.23 The earthquake was Chile’s largest since 2010, when one of magnitude 8.8 caused the destruction of around 220,000 homes. Preparedness and mitiga- tion measures were improved after the 2010 disaster, and the early warning and response systems put in place appear to have worked well for the Iquique earthquake. The measures include the sharing of information among countries at risk.24 Emergency drills have helped to prepare local populations living in exposed areas, and the evacuations that took place before and during the Iquique dis- aster were well-organised.25 The extensive application of earthquake-resistant building standards also helped to contain risk.26 Seismologists suggest that an even larger megathrust earthquake will occur in northern Chile in the future, but they are unable to say when it is likely to be.27 Meanwhile, investments in disaster risk reduction and preparedness remain a national priority along with continued regional cooperation in the operation of tsunami warning systems.28

Figure 4.4: The 20 largest displacement events of 2014 a) Ranked by absolute number displaced b) Ranked by relative number displaced (people) (per million inhabitants)

2,994,100 Philippines: Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) Chile: Iquique earthquake (April) 57,004 1,823,200 Philippines: Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) Tonga: Tropical cyclone Ian 54,715 1,073,700 India: Odisha floods Philippines: Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) 29,900 972,500 Chile: Iquique earthquake (April) Marshall Islands: King tides 23,600 812,000 India: Jammu and Kashmir floods Bosnia and Herzegovina: floods 23,500 740,200 Pakistan: September floods (Kashmir & other provinces) Philippines: Typhoon Hagupit (Ruby) 18,200 639,300 India: Cyclone Hudhud Bolivia: Beni floods 17,500 628,000 China: Typhoon Rammasun Solomon Islands: Honiara floods 15,700 570,000 Japan: Typhoon Halong Paraguay: Parana river floods 12,100 542,000 Bangladesh: North-west floods Comoros: Anjouan and Moheli floods 11,900 447,000 China: 100 year storm Malaysia: East coast floods 8,200 403,000 China: Floods in the South (July) Sri Lanka: Monsoon floods in the north-east 5,600 400,000 Philippines: Tropical storm Lingling (Agaton) Cambodia: Mekong river floods 5,300 367,000 India: Assam and Meghalaya floods (Sept-Oct) Nicaragua: October floods 5,200 337,000 China: Southern floods (second half of June) Cabo Verde: Pico do Fogo eruption 5,000 289,000 China: Typhoon Matmo Japan: Typhoon Halong 4,500 252,000 China: Typhoon Kalmaegi Croatia: Floods 4,100 247,100 Malaysia: East coast floods Sudan: Rainy season floods 4,100 239,000 China: Floods in the South (first half of June) Comoros: Mahale earthquake 4,000 236,900 China: Ludian earthquake Pakistan: September floods (Kashmir & other provinces) 4,000 Source: IDMC estimates as of 1 June 2015

4 | Geographical distribution and the biggest events 35 4.4 The big three: China, India and in 2014 (see figure 4.4.a). In keeping with the global and regional the Philippines Relative to their population size, how- pattern, the figures for all three countries China, India and the Philippines are ever, the scale of displacement in China vary significantly from year to year (see the worst affected countries worldwide in and India is less significant than in the figure 4.5). Each country is also exposed absolute terms and regularly see the larg- Philippines. Total displacement and single to a range of different hazards. In the est displacement events. They suffered events in the Philippines have been among Philippines, 81.6 per cent of displacement the highest displacement levels both in the largest in both absolute and relative between 2008 and 2014 was triggered by 2014 and across the 2008-2014 period and terms over 2014 alone as well as the seven storms, while in India 82.6 per cent was accounted for 15 of the 20 largest events years since 2008 (see figure 4.5). triggered by floods. Most of the displace-

Figure 4.5: Displacement in China, India and the Philippines, 2008 to 2014

a) Absolute b) Relative

20 80 China Philippines India 70 Philippines 15 60

50

10 40

30 People displaced (millions)

5 20 People displaced per million inhabitants (thousands)

10

0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: IDMC data as of 1 June 2015

Figure 4.6: Displacement by hazard type in China, India and the Philippines, 2008 to 2014 CHINA INDIA PHILIPPINES 914,800 2% 2.2% 132,600 0.4% 538,400 0.1% 10,600 1,500 <0.1% 13,000 <0.1% 102,000 0.4% 5.0m 3.9m 13.9m 17% 15.8% 24% 18.2m 31% 25.3m 24.4m 20.4m 43% 82.6% 81.6%

Floods Storms Earthquakes Volcanic eruptions Wet mass movements Dry mass movements Extreme temperatures Note: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 or 100,000 Source: IDMC Disaster-Induced Displacement Database as of 1 June 2015

36 Global Estimates 2015 ment in China was also associated with including areas that had also been hit by Recurrent disasters and protracted floods and storms, but earthquakes ac- Haiyan. Some provinces that are regu- displacement are of even greater concern counted for 31.2 per cent (see figure 4.6). larly exposed to typhoons, such as Al- when they occur in the poorest areas of a Repeated patterns of displacement bay, have developed strong capacities in country, or areas also affected by conflict. and their impacts are also a key feature disaster management over the past 20 Both are the case on the island of Mind- of each of these countries, where some years. “Evacuation rather than rescue” is anao, which includes nine of the ten least provinces and regions are frequently af- emphasised by the local authorities.35 developed provinces in the Philippines.37 fected (see maps 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3). In India It is also affected by armed conflict and and China, disasters tend to be more con- Recurrent displacement in the clan-related violence. The government centrated in specific regions. India experi- Philippines with long-lasting impacts has been fighting insurgent groups on ences high levels of displacement along While evacuations are a necessary the island since the 1970s, and as of the its east coast, where communities are protective measure, the scale of displace- end of 2014 there were 95,000 people dis- exposed to tropical storms from the Bay ment caused by the two 2014 typhoons placed by conflict and violence. of Bengal, and in the Ganges, Brahmapu- relative to the population of the affected As of March 2015, there were also tra and Yamuna river basins in the north areas, and people’s repeated exposure 140,000 people still displaced following and north-east of the country (see map to disasters, cause huge disruption and typhoon Bopha in December 2012. They 4.3). China’s southern provinces suffer put enormous strain on local communities live in temporary bunkhouses and tents widespread flooding each year during the and authorities. Some areas, including in Davao Oriental, Compostela Valley and monsoon season (see map 4.2). Disasters Eastern Visayas, Mimaropa, Bicol, Cen- some parts of Caraga region (see annex in the Philippines archipelago tend to be tral Luzon, Calabarzon and the National C).38 In 2014, Caraga was hit by three new widely distributed across its different re- Capital Region, were affected by both disasters, including tropical storms Lin- gions, affecting a large proportion of its storms on top of Haiyan in 2013 (see the gling and Jangmi, which each displaced population overall (see map 4.1). These red areas in map 4.1). Thousands of peo- 50,000 people or more. patterns are further discussed below. ple forced to flee their homes by Haiyan Away from Mindanao, the regions of were still displaced in 2015 (see annex Bicol, Calabarzon and Mimaropa were hit Typhoons in the Philippines: the largest C).36 The occurrence of multiple signifi- by four such events (see map 4.1). displacements of the year again cant displacement events in quick suc- As in 2013, disasters triggered by cession also strain coping capacity (see typhoons in the Philippines caused the figure 4.7). two largest displacements of the year worldwide. Rammasun, known locally as Glenda, and Hagupit, known locally as Ruby, both made landfall as category Figure 4.7: Philippines - Timeline of displacement events in 2014 three storms.29 The severity of their im- pacts was very different, however, to ty- Typhoon phoon Haiyan, known locally as Yolanda, 10,000,000 Rammasun 15 July Typhoon which triggered a massive disaster in Hagupit November 2013. 6 Dec Rammasun made landfall twice, in Al- 2.99m bay province on 15 July and Quezon prov- Tropical storm 1.82m ince the following day, and displaced al- Lingling most three million people overall. As many 1,000,000 17 Jan Tropical storm Tropical as 1.08 million took refuge in evacuation Fung-Wong storm 30 centres. Just 106 lives were lost. 400,000 19 Sept Jangmi Hagupit made landfall on Samar island 29 Dec on 6 December, driving more than 1.8 mil- 206,400 155,700 lion people into evacuation centres.31 At 100,000 Typhoon least 716,000 people were evacuated pre- Kalmaegi 77,400 emptively32as the storm was forecast to 12 Sept Mayon 50,000 become as strong as Typhoon Haiyan. It volcano failed to intensify to that level however,33 19 Sept and many residents were able to return to their homes hours after the typhoon passed. Just 18 lives were lost.34 People displaced (log scale) 10,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2014 In each of these cases, evacuations were stepped up as a key measure to Note: Shows events that displaced >50,000 people protect people in the typhoons’ paths,

4 | Geographical distribution and the biggest events 37 Map 4.1: Philippines regions affected by disaster-related displacement in 2014

0 150 km Number of times affected* The boundaries and names shown and the designations Luzon 0 1 - 2 3 4 used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by IDMC. Strait * Events that displaced >50,000 people

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Luis) Category 1, 12 Sept 2014

Tr op ic a l 1 s 9 to Typhoon S r e m pt Fu Rammasun 20 ng 14 Wo C Cagayan ng at (M eg ario or ) y 3 , (Glenda) LUZON 1 5 July 20 Manila South 14 Mayon volcano China Typhoon 19 Sept 2014 Hagupit (R Category 3 ub Calabarzon Philippine Sea Sea , 6 Dec 2014 y) Bicol Albay T yp ho o Samar n Haiyan (Yolanda) 5, No Category v 2013 Tacloban Mimaropa VISAYAS Cebu

Tropical Bohol storm Lingling (Agaton) 1 7 J

an

2

Sulu Sea Agusan 0

1 ) 4 g Cagayan de Oro n ia

n Pulangi i (S e MINDANAO Jangm storm ropical T Mindanao Davao 2014 29 Dec

Celebes Sea Number of people displaced per event BRUNEI MALAYSIA

INDONESIA INDONESIA

38 Global Estimates 2015 China’s southern hotspots Floods associated with the monsoon Many provinces were affected by Typhoon Rammasun left the Philip- season also displaced hundreds of thou- a number of disasters during the year. pines and tracked across south-east Asia, sands of people in China’s southern prov- Guangxi and Yunnan experienced nine leaving a trail of flooding and destruc- inces each year. In 2014, two major peri- events that displaced 50,000 people or tion in several other countries including ods of flooding in the first and second half more, and Guangdong and Guizhou eight China, where 628,000 people were forced of June forced more than 600,000 peo- events (see map 4.2). The most repeated- to flee their homes. Typhoon Matmo also ple to flee their homes between them. A ly affected provinces of Yunnan, Guizhou, displaced more than 250,000 people in major earthquake also displaced around Guangxi and Guangdong faced different provinces along the east coast in July, 236,000 people, most of them in Ludian kinds of hazards (see map 4.2). and typhoon Kalmaegi a similar number in county in the south-western province of southern areas in September. Guangdong Yunnan. province was affected by both storms.

Map 4.2: Chinese provinces affected by disaster-related displacement in 2014

Number of times affected by events* Top 3 largest events in China Number of IDPs

0 4 - 6 Typhoon Rammasun, July 628,000 1 - 3 8 - 9 Inland storm, May 447,000 Heilongjiang Monsoon floods, July 403,000 * Events that displaced >50,000 people See annex B for all events that displaced >100,000 people

Jilin

Xinjiang Liaoning Inner Mongolia Displacement events by type of hazard in the top 4 most frequently-hit provinces

YUNNAN GUIZHOU GUANGXI GUANGDONG

13% 11% 38% 38% 25% 33% 56% 43% 57% 63% Shandong 25%

Earthquakes Storms Floods Jiangsu Henan Gansu Shaanxi Anhui Shanghai Hubei

Tibet T . S

Zhejiang .

Sichuan F

Chongqing u

n

g

W

o

n Hunan Jiangxi g , Ludian 2 earth- 2

quake Guizhou S Fujian e p t

Typhoon Matmo Guangdong Yunnan Guangxi Category 1, 23 July

Typhoon Rammasun Category Hainan Typhoon Kalmaegi Disclaimer: 18 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on July 5 Category 1, 16 Sept this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by IDMC.

4 | Geographical distribution and the biggest events 39 Displacement caused by seasonal Committee of the Red Cross.39 When Agency Group of humanitarian NGOs in floods and cyclone Hudhud in India floods brought further widespread de- Assam also noted a relative lack of media Northern and eastern India suffered a struction to Jammu and Kashmir in March reporting on the situation in Assam and number of large-scale disasters caused and April 2015, many people were still to Meghalaya, describing it as “a disaster of by exceptionally heavy rains and riverine receive the compensation promised by the poor” and comparing it with Jammu floods in 2014. In September, the worst the government for losses they had in- and Kashmir’s “disaster of the middle- floods to hit Jammu and Kashmir in 50 curred the previous September.40 class”.43 years displaced around 812,000 people In Assam, the fourth poorest state Further south in the state of Odisha, in urban areas of the state. Across the in the country,41 floods in July were fol- floodwaters engulfed vast areas of the contested line of control with Pakistan, lowed by worse flooding in September Mahanadi river delta in July 2014 and dis- hundreds of thousands more were dis- and October, which also affected the placed more than a million people. Mass placed in Azad Kashmir. neighbouring state of Meghalaya. Some evacuations from low-lying areas were India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, 367,000 people were displaced. Despite undertaken. On 12 October, cyclone Hud- declared the disaster a national level cri- the regular occurrence of floods in this hud made landfall near the eastern port sis, but the government refused humani- region, few long-term measures have city of Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh tarian access to the UN and international been put in place to mitigate flooding in as a category four storm, bringing wide- organisations other than the International the Brahmaputra river basin.42 The Inter- spread floods and landslides. It triggered

Map 4.3: Largest displacements in India and neighbouring countries, 2014

River floods, Capital September (Pakistan) New Delhi 740,000 displaced International boundary Gilgit State boundary INDIA Area occupied Affected districts in India l Indus tro by China on Affected districts in neighbouring countries of C and claimed L ine Affected states JAMMU by India Events and displacement figures Srinagar in 2014 & Jammu & Kashmir KASHMIR floods, September PAKISTAN 812,000 displaced Jhelum

Chenab HIMACHAL Sindhupalwchok district Assam & Meghalaya PRADESH CHINA Flood risk landslide, August (Nepal) evacuations, August floods, Sept-October Ravi 40,000 displaced 130,000 displaced 360,000 displaced Sutlej PUNJAB UTTARAKHAND Floods in the South, Bihar floods, August Assam floods, July HARYANA August (Nepal) 116,000 displaced > 160,000 displaced 43,000 displaced Brahmaputra DELHI New Delhi ARUNACHAL Yamuna NEPAL PRADESH SIKKIM BHUTAN RAJASTHAN UTTAR PRADESH Ganges Ghaghara Goalpara ASSAM NAGALAND BIHAR MEGHALAYA Patna Tura Williamnagar Ganges BANGLADESH MANIPUR JHARKHAND TRIPURARIPURA MADHYA PRADESH WEST MIZORAM BENGAL

Narmada Odisha floods, July MYANMAR 1.1 million displaced Jaipur Brahmaputra basin floods/ Bay Downstream floods, Mahanadi Cuttack September (Bangladesh) Irrawaddy of > 542,000 displaced ODISHA Puri Bengal MAHARASHTRA CHHATTISGARH Godavari Cyclone Hudhud, Vishakhapatnam October (Cat. 4) Disclaimer: (Land fall) The boundaries and names shown and the 639,000 displaced designations used on this map do not imply TELANGANA official endorsement or acceptance by IDMC.

Krishna

40 Global Estimates 2015 one of the most costly disasters of the Over the last seven years, SIDS have aged or destroyed.49 Around 4,000 people year, causing losses of around $11 billion. experienced relative levels of displace- took refuge in evacuation centres, most Learning from experiences ahead ment at around three times the average of them set up in churches.50 of cyclone Phailin almost exactly a year for all countries combined (see figure Two months after the storm, 300 fami- earlier, the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha 4.8.a). Haiti and Cuba have had the high- lies in Ha’apai were still living in tents.51 state authorities increased their efforts est levels of displacement among SIDS Those in greatest need of housing as- to convince residents of coastal and hill in both relative and absolute terms (see sistance, as identified by the government communities that they should evacuate figure 4.8.b). and community, included households with for their own safety ahead of Hudhud.44 This pattern is also repeated in terms older members and members who have For thousands of people from the hill of the largest events of 2014 in relative disabilities, those with single or widowed tribes, this was their first time to ever terms. Four out of the 10 largest events parents, as well as large families and leave their home areas.45 The evacuation took place in SIDS, including disasters those with little access to remittances. of around 600,000 people can be credited in the Pacific triggered by cyclone Ian in Reconstruction is underway, but 14 with helping to minimise fatalities. When Tonga, king tides in the Marshall Islands, months after Ian struck, more than 300 a huge storm hit the area 15 years earlier, floods in the Solomon Islands, and in people were still waiting for their homes 10,000 people were killed.45 State officials the Comoros Islands off the east coast to be rebuilt (see annex C).52 put the death toll from Hudhud at 41 (see of Africa also brought on by floods (see map 4.3).46 figure 4.4.b). Cyclone Ian, a category five storm, be- came the most powerful ever to hit Tonga 4.5 Small but significant: Impacts and caused the second largest displace- on small island developing states ment of the year relative to population SIDS are usually among the worst size. An estimated 5,300 people were affected countries each year in relative forced to flee their homes, represent- terms because of their size, location and ing around five per cent of the island’s topography. Their mostly low-lying island population.48 The government declared a populations tend to be exposed to a range state of emergency in Ha’apai and Vava’u of hazards, particularly cyclones, floods, on the day it made landfall. The Ha’apai landslides, earthquakes and tsunamis, island group suffered devastation across and when a disaster occurs it can affect all sectors. Eighty per cent of its hous- a large part of the country. ing and many public facilities were dam-

Figure 4.8: Displacement in SIDS relative to population size, 2008 to 2014 (per million inhabitants) a) SIDS compared with all other countries b) SIDS with the highest displacement levels

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000

30 Haiti Cuba 25 Palau Samoa 20 Fiji All others Absolute scale SIDS Tonga Relative scale 15 Solomon Islands Marshall Islands 10 Cook Islands

People displaced per million inhabitants (thousands) Comoros 5 Papua New Guinea Saint Vincent & 0 the Grenadines 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 Source: IDMC data as of 1 June 2015

4 | Geographical distribution and the biggest events 41 4.6 Multiple hazards in fragile and alone, more than 750,000 people in 23 mine their onward options and decisions conflict-affected states fragile and conflict-affected countries also reflect this complexity, as illustrated Across the 33 countries the World were displaced (see figure 4.9.a). below in the case of Afghanistan. Bank defines as fragile and conflict-af- Given the complex mix of overlapping Our data shows that between 2010 fected,53 51 per cent of their populations factors that cause displacement in fragile and 2014, 13 countries suffered signifi- or 500 million people live in poverty. Ac- and conflict-affected countries, collect- cant new displacement associated with cording to the Organisation for Economic ing and disaggregating data according both conflict and natural hazards.55 In Cooperation and Development’s defini- to hazard type is particularly difficult. It 2014, significant numbers of people were tion, which takes in more countries, the is also potentially misleading in terms displaced by conflict and natural hazards figure is 43 per cent or 1.2 billion people.54 of understanding causes and predict- in India, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Natural hazards are a common and ing dynamics to consider hazard types Sudan and Sudan (see figure 4.10.a). As significant element of the complex land- separately. shown by the cases presented in section scape for exposed and vulnerable popu- At the same time, considering both 5 and annex C, fragile states are affected lations in such countries. All fragile and types of data together points to the rela- by long-lasting displacement such as in conflict-affected countries on the World tionship between different hazard types Haiti, Myanmar and Zimbabwe. Bank’s list experienced displacement and the complexity of displacement in associated with natural hazards and dis- such contexts. The various factors that asters between 2008 and 2014. In 2014 lead to peoples’ displacement and deter-

Figure 4.9: Displacement in fragile and conflict-affected states, 2008-2014 a) 2014 compared to the b) States with the highest relative levels of displacement, annual average 2008-2014 (per million inhabitants)

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 1.5 2008-2014 average 2014 Haiti Chad Myanmar 1.2 South Sudan Solomon Islands Absolute scale Marshall Islands 0.9 Relative scale Comoros Madagascar Papua New Guinea 0.6 BiH

Displaced people (millions) Angola

0.3 Sudan Gambia Nepal 0 CAR Somalia Source: IDMC data as of 1 June 2015 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000

42 Global Estimates 2015 Figure 4.10: Countries with new displacement associated with both natural hazards and conflict, 2014 and 2010-2014

a) 2014 Conflict-related Natural hazard-related 10,000,000

1,000,000

100,000 People displaced (logscale)

10,000 South DR Congo Pakistan Sudan India Afghanistan Colombia Ethiopia Philippines Somalia Sudan

Note: Countries with at least 250,000 people newly displaced related to conflict and at least 10,000 related to natural hazards Conflict refers to both armed conflict and generalised violence Source of data: IDMC, conflict-related data as of 6 May 2015 and natural hazard-related data as of 1 June 2015

b) 2010 - 2014 Natural hazard related 25

20 Conflict-related Natural hazard-related 15

10 People displaced (millions)

5

0 Pakistan Sudan Nigeria South Philippines Colombia India Kenya Myanmar Sri Mexico Indonesia Thailand Sudan Lanka

Note: Countries with at least 250,000 people newly displaced related to conflict and at least 250,000 related to natural hazards Conflict refers to both armed conflict and generalised violence Source of data: IDMC, conflict-related data as of 6 May 2015 and natural hazard-related data as of 1 June 2015

4 | Geographical distribution and the biggest events 43 SPOTLIGHT

AFGHANISTAN Blurred lines between multiple drivers of displacement

Afghanistan’s climate and terrain make worse by natural hazards and the disas- ty. Comprehensive information about IDPs it highly prone to both slow and sudden- ters they trigger, making it very difficult does not exist and the picture is further onset natural hazards, including cyclical to identify one single factor behind IDPs’ complicated by the lack of long-term as- drought, earthquakes, floods, landslides, decision to flee their homes. The conflict sistance for IDPs displaced by disasters. avalanches and extreme weather. Rough- has also aggravated local tensions, such This has led significant numbers of peo- ly half of the country’s 400 districts are as land disputes, leading to additional dis- ple to report their displacement as related susceptible and as many as 250,000 Af- placement59, and impedes responses to to insecurity in order to benefit from the ghans are affected each year, particularly disasters (see figure 4.11). separate support available to those dis- in the north of the country. placed by conflict.61 The country ranks 176th of 177 on the According to a 2014 study commis- Notre Dame global adaptation index, Originally, we are from Herat. sioned by IOM in Herat and Helmand which assesses their vulnerability to cli- We lived in Koshakkona for 20 provinces, 55 per cent of IDPs identified mate change and their ability to cope with years, but due to the droughts insecurity and armed conflict as the main its impacts. More than 35 years of armed in Koshakkona we moved to driver of their displacement. Thirty-two conflict, environmental degradation and Gulran district of Herat and per cent said they had fled a combina- poor investment in disaster risk reduction stayed there for four or five tion of conflict and disasters, and 12.5 per mean that its vulnerability to disasters is years. Due to the fighting cent that their displacement was predomi- increasing.56 between government and nantly caused by disasters, most often dry Displacement in Afghanistan is driven anti-government elements we spells and drought. One per cent cited by a number of factors, including armed shifted to our current location. the impact of “human made” hazards or conflict, violence, serious human rights Adult female IDP, Qala-e-Khona human activity on their livelihoods, such violations, disasters brought on by natural village, Helmand60 as international efforts to eradicate opium hazards and development projects.57 It poppy, as the reason for their flight.62 takes place amid other dynamic popula- IDPs who had fled to Herat from Ghor tion movements such as rural-to-urban province said they had been displaced migration and the mass return of refu- by a combination of tribal conflict, fight- gees, which complicates the task of iden- ing between non-state armed groups, tifying and assisting IDPs. In spite of the overlap between people crop failure and ensuing food shortages Given the presence of international ostensibly displaced by conflict and those caused by drought.63 military forces since 2004 and the resur- who flee disasters, data about them is The study found that people who had gence of the Taliban, the main driver of recorded, tracked and assisted separately been displaced for longer periods of time displacement in recent years has been - the former by Afghanistan’s taskforce were more likely to want to integrate lo- conflict between Afghan National Se- on IDPs, co-chaired by UNHCR and the cally.64 It also revealed that the majority curity Forces with international troops Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation; of IDPs were undecided or unclear about against non-state armed groups.58 Its and the latter by IOM and the Afghanistan their settlement preferences, effectively effects, however, are frequently made National Disaster Management Authori- leaving them in limbo regardless of the

44 Global Estimates 2015 Figure 4.11: Drivers of displacement in Herat and Helmand

Other man-made hazards 1%

Natural hazards 12.5%

Both conflict Conflict and natural 55% hazards 32%

Source: IOM/Samuel Hall Consulting, 2014. Data: IOM DTM, December 2013 cause of their displacement (see figure 4.12). It is also striking that very few IDPs considered returning to their places of origin to be an option, including those displaced primarily by natural hazards. Afghanistan’s first national policy on Figure 4.12: Settlement intentions of displaced households IDPs was adopted in November 2013, and in Herat and Helmand applies to all people forced to flee their homes as a result of military operations, Return to place of origin Integrate locally Undecided Taliban abuses, disasters brought on by Settle in third location Waiting on one or several factors natural hazards, development projects or a combination of causes. It also includes 100 people displaced by slow-onset disasters such as drought. The policy defines an IDP by the forced 80 nature of their movement, rather than by a specific cause or agency mandate. It 62% 68% 56% 71% also explicitly acknowledges that it “is not always easy to clearly identify one factor 60 that forces families to flee”.65 As such, it provides an important tool to advocate for a comprehensive and integrated re- sponse to all drivers of displacement. The 40 10% international community should now sup- port the Afghan authorities in their efforts Percentage of IDPs interviewed 13% 3% to implement the policy effectively. 20 14% 32% 25% 27% 14% 1% 1% 0 1% 1% Conflict Natural Both conflict Other hazards and natural man-made hazards hazards

Source: IOM/Samuel Hall Consulting, 2014. Data: IOM DTM, December 2013

4 | Geographical distribution and the biggest events 45 A displaced woman, stranded at a hotel in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. She and thousands of First Nation people were forced from their homes in 2011 by floods around Lake St. Martin. They checked into Winnipeg hotels, assuming they would return to their homes within a couple of weeks. Four years later, they are still there. Photo (cropped): Wookey Films, 2014

46 Global Estimates 2015 MIND YOUR 5 ASSUMPTIONS Protracted displacement following disasters

Key findings and messages Displacement following disasters is of- emergency phase of a response, their Relatively little is known about protract- ten fraught with complex and political situation should be verified. They should ed displacement situations following obstacles to solutions. Obstacles fre- not be allowed to drop off the radar as disasters. They are poorly monitored quently encountered include access to “residual caseloads” when humanitar- and little reported on. A sample we have land and discrimination against vulner- ian priorities shift towards longer-term collated of 34 ongoing cases accounts able and marginalised groups. Address- recovery and development. for more than 715,000 people stuck in ing the long-lasting social and psycho- Local authorities, civil society networks limbo, and points to the likelihood of logical consequences of displacement and community-based organisations hundreds of thousands more who have is as important as the physical rebuild- should be mobilised and supported to not yet been recorded. ing of homes and infrastructure. help identify and monitor cases of pro- The common assumption that dis- Most of the cases of protracted dis- tracted displacement. This is important, placement following disasters is short- placement we identified are in low and given that many of those affected are term and temporary does not hold true middle-income developing countries, all but invisible, because they are dis- in many cases. The cases we identified but there are also significant examples persed among wider populations and highlight the plight of people who have in rich countries, such as the US and in urban areas. been living in protracted displacement Japan. Vulnerable and marginalised for up to 26 years. people in high-income countries also People in such situations receive little risk being excluded from solutions. attention and are likely to be left be- Governments should prioritise measures hind in long-term recovery, disaster risk to advance solutions and strengthen reduction and development processes. the resilience of people whose dis- Better data and further research is placement risks becoming protracted, needed to create a solid evidence base or has already become so. They include for policymakers’ and responders’ deci- people whose former homes have be- sions. come permanently inaccessible or un- Hazards are diverse in their nature and safe, informal settlers, poor tenants and dynamics. Some persist for long periods people who face discrimination based and can become permanent barriers on their class, ethnicity, gender or age. to return. The repeated impacts of fre- Interventions should be adapted to their quent short-lived hazards on vulnerable specific needs. communities can also lead to protracted When displaced people move on to displacement. another location during or after the

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 47 The global data presented in this re- 5.1 Conceptualising protracted These different perspectives make port provides a broad snapshot of recur- displacement comparing situations more difficult, but rent and persistent patterns of displace- There is no common definition for pro- there is a clear consensus on the need ment in exposed and vulnerable countries tracted displacement, though its descrip- to develop knowledge on the phenom- such as China, India and the Philippines tion by different experts and organisa- enon. The 34 cases, eight of which are (see section three). Knowledge and evi- tions point to general agreement on some discussed in more detail below, together dence of such patterns and their com- of its significant elements. Many see it as with our literature review and interviews, plexity as they evolve over time, however, a long-lasting situation in which progress highlight it as an issue of particular con- is only available from ad hoc reporting towards durable solutions, as described cern from both humanitarian and develop- and studies. Current monitoring and data by the Inter-Agency Standing Committee ment perspectives. collection is insufficient to serve as a ro- framework,1 is slow or stalled.2 Defining it bust evidence base for policymakers at in terms of the length of time people are the national and global level. displaced is somewhat arbitrary. Many re- 5.2 The data and knowledge blind In order to begin building a global evi- fer to UNHCR’s conflict-related definition spot dence base from which to monitor pro- of protracted displacement as lasting over There is a rapidly developing body of tracted displacement, IDMC undertook an 5 years.3 Others note displacement that research on the topic of displacement initial scoping exercise over a four-month continues beyond assumed timeframes associated with disasters and climate period in the first half of 2015. It included for emergency funding and response.4 It change and the issue has received in- the collection and review of literature and can also be characterised in terms of the creasing recognition in key global policy online information, and interviews with settlement options required by IDPs, such agendas in recent years (see section 32 experts at international and national as people unable to return to their former six). That said, significant knowledge levels (see annex A3). homes and awaiting relocation.5 Some gaps remain, including on people living We found 66 examples of protracted define it through the prism of their main in recurrent and protracted displacement displacement associated with disasters, framework for analyses or sectoral focus, following disasters.11 loosely defined for the purpose of the ex- such as human rights violations and pro- International experts have highlight- ercise as situations that had lasted for at tection,6 disrupted access to livelihoods,7 ed the phenomenon as “the issue for least a year and in which IDPs had made health impacts,8 or as a shelter and the coming decade”, and one in need of little or no progress towards achieving housing issue.9 Others have described concerted attention and action from the durable solutions (see further explanation it in terms of the disruption of the socio- international community.12 The discourse, in section 2). We then filtered the sample economic fabric of a community and the however, has focused almost entirely on for ongoing cases, which yielded the 34 social impacts on people’s identity and people displaced by conflict,13 with only detailed in Annex C. definition of home.10 Concepts and defini- the occasional nod given to those fleeing tions are also discussed in section two. natural hazards and disasters.14

Table 5.1: Checking and challenging common assumptions about protracted displacement Assumption Challenge

1. Displacement associated with disasters The evidence from 34 ongoing cases and other past cases shows that return is is short-term and temporary, and as such not necessarily safe or possible and does not imply that a durable solution has protracted displacement is not an issue. been achieved. Repeated cycles of temporary flight and return may contribute to protracted displacement and eventual settlement elsewhere.

2. The duration of displacement is deter- The consequences of rapid-onset natural hazards can continue for extended mined primarily by the often short-lived periods of time, and even become a permanent barrier to return. Some hazards nature of the threat from a natural hazard. remain a physical threat over longer periods of time. Repeated exposure to fre- quent short-lived hazards can have a similar effect to a long-lasting event.

3. Displacement associated with disasters The drivers of disaster and displacement - exposure and vulnerability - are is less complex and less political, and so complex, and many of the obstacles to durable solutions in the aftermath of a easier to resolve than that associated disaster are inherently political. They vary from context to context, but include with conflict. access to land, discrimination and corruption.

4. Protracted displacement is a problem There is also evidence of protracted displacement in high-income countries, for developing countries in particular. where the most vulnerable or marginalised people are disproportionately af- fected.

48 Global Estimates 2015 Map 5.1 Protracted displacement following disasters worldwide in 2014/2015

Country, disaster, start year, number of people still displaced

Pakistan Italy Attabad landslide L’Aquila and flood, 2010 earthquake, 2,900 Japan 2009 Monsoon floods, 2012 Tōhoku earthquake/tsunami 16,000 31,000 and nuclear accident, 2011 230,000 Bangladesh United States

5 |Mindyourassumptions: Protracted displacement followingdisasters Cyclone Aila, 2009 Superstorm Sandy, 2012 13,100 39,200 Armenia Earthquake, 1988 18,500 Philippines Typhoon Bopha/Pablo, 2012 Haiti At least 140,000 Earthquake, 2010 Nigeria Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda, 2013 64,700 Floods, 2012 Up to 16,500 13,300

Colombia Gramalote landslide, 2010 2,900 Indonesia Zimbabwe Sidoarjo mudflow, 2006 Tokwe-Mukorsi 13,000 floods, 2014 20,000 Mozambique Floods, 2013 26,000 Papua New Guinea Manam volcano eruption, 2004 15,000 Location of protracted situations recorded as ongoing in 2014/2015 Sources: See annex C for listing of all events shown Floods Landslide Volcanic eruption Note: Events with at least 9,500 people still displaced and/or further discussed in case studies are labeled Earthquake Storm All figures are rounded to the nearest 100 49 The international experts we inter- 1. Short term and temporary? 5.4 The problem with assumptions viewed tended to know of only one or It is often assumed, particularly in Knowledge blind spots are reinforced two examples of protracted displacement the context of rapid-onset natural haz- by such broad generalisations, and avert associated with disasters, and most of- ards, that IDPs are able to return to their attention from the phenomenon of pro- ten referred to the 2010 Haiti earthquake. homes relatively quickly, recover and tracted displacement. There is a danger Among interviewees based at country- get on with their lives.17 According to a that families and communities displaced level, however, a pattern emerged. Those review of protection in humanitarian cri- for far longer than expected following a who said at first that they knew of no ex- ses, “recovery from isolated, rapid onset disaster will be neglected, because re- amples began to recall situations as the disasters is more linear and expected sponders are simply not looking for them. interviews progressed though they were within 12 months, while conflict settings The above assumptions also belie the often unable to provide evidence in docu- are complex and often lead to protracted complexity and long-term nature of re- mented form. crisis and displacement requiring longer covery processes and the particular chal- Local community-based organisations term programme response and funding”.18 lenges displacement poses in different were generally the best informed about Fifteen out of the 21 international inter- contexts. This can have direct impacts the often largely invisible people affected, viewees asked to describe the nature of on policy and practice, as seen in the af- and as such they will be vital in efforts to displacement associated with disasters termath of superstorm Sandy when US monitor and research the issue. said it was commonly seen as short-term government funding to help IDPs meet Displacement tends to be well report- and temporary, but many also questioned their short-term housing needs was ed in the immediate aftermath of larger the assumption. based on the idea that they should be disasters, but then to drop off over time. able to move back home within two years. All of our interviewees confirmed the lack 2. Short-lived hazards make for short- In reality this was not always the case, of monitoring of “pockets” of IDPs who fall lived displacement? leaving some struggling to pay their rent, off the radar in the aftermath of disasters, Different types of natural hazard cre- taxes and mortgages while still living in with ongoing situations documented only ate different displacement dynamics (see displacement.20 by the media or anecdotally. section three), but disasters are often Emergency evacuations also tend to The phenomenon has received more referred to without reference to these be planned on the assumption that evacu- attention in Asia and the Americas than differences. It is assumed that the im- ees will be able to return to their homes in Africa and the Middle East (see an- pacts of rapid-onset hazards dissipate relatively quickly. When return is made nex C). As for displacement in general, as quickly as they occur, making prompt impossible or is significantly delayed, the reporting is also biased towards IDPs in return possible. Little or no consideration use of public buildings, including schools, official shelter sites or camp settings. The is given to the extent and nature of the as evacuation centres can quickly be- situation of people who end up living for devastation and insecurity in their after- come a problem as services need to be extended periods with friends and family math, when a storm has passed, flood- resumed.21 or in informal settlements tends not to be waters have receded or the ground has Given the limited knowledge and monitored at all.15 stopped shaking following an earthquake. awareness of protracted displacement, There is also an operational blind examples tend to be treated as excep- spot created by the limited availability 3. Less complex and easier to solve? tions to the rule, rather than evidence of and interoperability of information col- Most of the current literature and dis- a widespread phenomenon. This in turn lected about IDPs and their needs by or- course on protracted displacement sees creates the risk that the needs of vulner- ganisations serving the same populations it primarily as an issue in the context of able individuals, families and communities across different sectors of assistance, or conflict. It also assumes that disasters unable to achieve a durable solution to at different points in time. It becomes par- are less political if not apolitical, with the their displacement will be overlooked. ticularly significant when the emergency implication that the displacement they As increasing population exposure response is phased out and the role of the cause is easier to resolve and so less and vulnerability to hazards drive an up- development sector comes to the fore as likely to become protracted.19 ward trend in displacement, disasters and the focus switches to recovery.16 their impacts are also likely to be making 4. An issue for developing countries recurrent and protracted displacement only? worse. As Professor Susan Martin of 5.3 Checking common Our global estimates show that dis- Georgetown University observes: “In the assumptions placement associated with disasters past … these protracted examples were A number of direct or implied assump- is widely distributed across the world, exceptions to the rule … But now we are tions about displacement associated with including both the richest and poorest seeing a shift in terms of frequency and disasters, and protracted displacement countries. Protracted displacement is the scale of devastation, and it’s hard to more specifically, emerged from our re- often assumed to be an issue for devel- believe people can go back very quickly.”22 search. The following four are particularly oping and fragile states only, which have As disaster patterns change, current common: less capacity and resources to facilitate assumptions need to change accord- durable solutions. ingly. The idea that the displacement

50 Global Estimates 2015 they cause is short-lived feeds a reactive by the ongoing threats posed by long- as Pakistan, Colombia and Bangladesh. approach that provides relief but not so- lasting or frequent natural hazards. In In- Lack of access to land is the most lutions. Unmitigated risk leads to cycles donesia, the Sidoarjo mudflow developed frequently cited obstacle to solutions of repeated displacement and loss that fairly quickly in 2006, but it is still active. (in two-thirds of the cases listed in an- erode the resilience of those affected, It has created a permanent impediment nex C) and land is more often than not leaving them unable to recover between to return and forced displaced families an inherently political issue. The plight of one disaster and the next. to relocate elsewhere. The lake formed landless families displaced to or from in- after Attabad landslide in Pakistan and formal urban settlements are highlighted the nuclear contamination after Tohoku in examples from Haiti, Bangladesh, and 5.5 Evidence to the contrary disaster in Japan are similarly permanent the Philippines. impediments to return. Informal settlers are among people 1. Short term and temporary? Exposure to frequent, short-lived most vulnerable to protracted displace- Displacement often lasts far longer hazards can have a similar effect to a ment, whether they became informal set- than assumed in the aftermath of disas- single long-lasting one. In Bangladesh, tlers before or after a disaster as Conrad ters. All of the 34 cases listed in annex protracted displacement is not just the Navidad, IOM Philippines explains: “If IDPs C have been ongoing for at least a year, consequence of cyclone Aila in 2009, but after a disaster are unable to return or and many of them for far longer. In Papua of the cumulative impacts of repeated dis- be relocated, some of them end up as New Guinea, 15,000 IDPs displaced by asters and short-term displacements that informal settlers. This is common knowl- the 2004 eruption of the Manam volcano hamper the capacity of families to recover edge. If you ask informal settlers in metro are still living in temporary shelters more each time before another set back. In the Manila, in the slum areas, why did you than ten years later. Some who fled the Philippines, “no build zones” were estab- come here … some would likely tell you 1999 Marmara earthquake in Turkey re- lished in low-lying coastal areas affected ‘we are victims of typhoons or natural dis- main displaced after more than 15 years, by typhoon Haiyan in 2013 on the basis asters, and we couldn’t wait for solutions and for as long as 26 years in the case of that they are so prone to repeated flood- from the government.’” Informal settlers’ the 1988 Spitak earthquake in Armenia ing, storms and landslides as to make lack of tenure security can also lead to (see annex C). them uninhabitable. Displaced former their forced eviction, as was the case in In relation to the “temporary” displace- residents, however, are still waiting to be Kenya for people living in Embobut forest, ment assumption, return home is not al- permanently relocated elsewhere.25 where they had taken refuge following ways safe and possible or permitted fol- It is clear from many conflict-related landslides (see annex C). Once dispersed lowing a disaster. This is the situation for situations we monitor that people may among the urban poor, IDPs are difficult displaced people in almost half (16 out of remain displaced for years after hostili- to identify, making their needs invisible 34) of the cases listed in annex C- includ- ties have ceased, and the same is true to organisations who might otherwise ing the examples discussed below from, of natural hazards. The devastation and prioritise them for assistance.26 Colombia, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan and disruption they cause to people’s lives The tenure status of those who rented Papua New Guinea. and livelihoods, and the psychological rather than owned their homes before This assumption is derived from pat- impact on those affected, can prolong their flight creates specific needs, which terns of early return by people to their displacement significantly. More than make them prone to neglect and pro- homes in the aftermath of many disas- five years after the 2010 earthquake in longed displacement.27 In the aftermath of ters,23 but such cases are context specific Haiti, at least 64,700 people in the capital, superstorm Sandy in the US, reconstruc- and should not be over-generalised. As Port-au-Prince, are still living in temporary tion assistance was allocated dispropor- Professor Roger Zetter, Oxford University shelters. tionately to homeowners rather than ten- observes, “Even if the majority are able ants, even though the latter were more to return, a small but significant minority 3. Less complex and easier to solve? likely to be in the lower-income bracket. often remain displaced” and “disappear Many of the protracted displacement below the horizon.”24 situations we have identified highlight sig- 4. An issue for developing countries Nor does early return imply that a du- nificant political obstacles to solutions, only ? rable solution has been achieved. Repeat- including the favouring of economic in- Most of the cases of protracted dis- ed cycles of temporary flight and return terests over IDPs’ needs and rights, the placement we identified are in low and may contribute to protracted displace- alleged misuse of resources, corruption middle-income countries. A few, how- ment and eventual settlement elsewhere, and weak governance. Disasters do not ever, reveal that poor and marginalised as seen in the case from Bangladesh dis- take place in a political vacuum and the people in high-income countries are cussed below. drivers, as discussed in section 4, are re- also affected. In such cases, displace- lated to processes of impoverishment and ment may be a symptom of pre-existing 2. Short-lived hazards, short-lived marginalisation. Protracted situations and patterns of discrimination and inequal- displacement? the obstacles to solutions are often politi- ity. A disproportionate number of people The protracted nature of displacement cal in nature. Some of these cases are of colour from low-income backgrounds associated with disasters is influenced also in countries affected by conflict, such remain displaced in the US following su-

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 51 perstorm Sandy in 2009, and indigenous find a single situation where absolutely “First Nation” communities in Canada are everyone can go back. There are always still displaced from their homes and way some people who will not go back, and of life on reservation land following the this will always be linked to their situa- 2011 Manitoba floods (see annex C). tion before.”31 These “residual caseloads” include people with specific needs for protec- We don’t know when we are tion and development assistance. Dis- going to go home, or where placed women following typhoon Haiyan home is going to be. in the Philippines, for example, were not Manitoba flood IDP, Treading Water consulted on the prioritisation of house- documentary28 holds for permanent housing assistance.32 Highlighted examples below show that they also include informal settlers and poor tenants (see case from Haiti) and Large protracted cases are found in other vulnerable people who face dis- both the richest and poorest countries. crimination on the basis of their class or 230,000 people have been displaced for ethnicity (see case from US), gender (see more than four years following the 2011 case from Bangladesh) or age (see case Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear from Japan). An improvement in govern- accident in Japan, while in Haiti at least ments’ data collection and monitoring of 64,700 remain displaced for more than their situations would do much to avoid five years after the 2010 earthquake. displaced people becoming forgotten and side-lined in sustainable develop- ment processes. 5.6 Leaving no-one behind29 The sample of just 34 ongoing cases in annex C accounts for at least 715,000 people in long-lasting and protracted displacement. This, in turn, points to the likelihood of hundreds of thousands more who have yet to be identified. Protracted and recurrent displacement drain re- sources at all levels, from household to international. They erode resilience and undermine the development prospects of those affected, and left unmitigated and unresolved they contribute to increasing impoverishment and the risk of further cycles of disaster. IDPs should not be assumed to have achieved a durable solution when they return to their former home areas or move on elsewhere in the aftermath of a disas- ter. Nor should they be allowed to drop off the radar when displacement continues beyond the timeframes set by govern- ment and donor policy or the limitations of responders’ capacities and mandates. More robust evidence is needed with which to re-examine the broad assump- tions about protracted displacement as- sociated with disasters, and ensure they are adapted to specific situations and contexts.30 As Professor Walter Kälin, Envoy of the Chairmanship of the Nansen Initiative observes: “I don’t think you can

52 Global Estimates 2015 5.7 Spotlight cases To demonstrate the diversity and challenges associated with protracted displacement in the aftermath of disas- ters, eight cases drawn from annex C are summarised in figure 5.1 and discussed in detail in the following section.

Figure 5.1: Eight cases of protracted displacement following disasters

Key: number of IDPs (log scale) US: Superstorm Sandy 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Japan: Tōhoku earthquake/ Note: tsunami and nuclear accident Circle size = number of IDPs after initial disaster and still displaced as of latest report in 2014/2015 Arrow = length of time between initial hazard and latest report in 2014/2015 Pakistan: Hunza Valley landslides and flood

Haiti: Earthquake

Colombia: Gramalote landslide

Bangladesh: Cyclone Aila

Indonesia: Sidoarjo mudflow

Papua New Guinea: Manam volcano eruption

2005 2010 2015

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 53 SPOTLIGHT

PAPUA NEW GUINEA Manam islanders still displaced ten years after volcanic eruption

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is prone to One of the largest displacements sought refuge with host communities.35 a range of natural hazards, including caused by a volcanic eruption in PNG took Given the risk of further volcanic drought, floods, tropical cyclones, land- place in late 2004 when around 11,000 activity, Manam was declared unsafe slides, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes people were forced to flee their homes for return and the authorities began to and tsunamis. It is also highly vulnerable on Manam island in Madang province.34 consider alternative settlement options to the impacts of climate change and ris- All were evacuated 15 kilometres to main- for the island’s IDPs. Local integration ing sea-levels. An estimated 21,186 people land areas near the town of Bogia, where in the care centres was quickly deemed were displaced by natural hazards and many were accommodated in temporary unsustainable because of a shortage of the disasters they triggered in 2014, with government settlement sites or “care cen- land and resources, and rising tensions flooding being the main driver.33 tres”, as they are officially known. Others between the displaced and local com- munities. The land on which the centres were set up was said to be owned by the government, which gave IDPs permis- sion to stay temporarily. Locals, however, claimed that they, not the state, were the rightful owners.36 In 2006, the government identified land for the IDPs’ relocation in Andarum, around 50 kilometres from Bogia. The majority agreed to move providing infra- structure including roads, schools and health centres was built and they would have enough land to cultivate. Legislation was passed and the government estab- lished the Manam Resettlement Author- ity (MRA), tasked with taking the project forward.

A displaced woman from Manam island carries on with everyday chores at the Mangem care centre, Bogia town, Madang province, Papua New Guinea. Photo: IDMC/Frederik Kok, October 2014

54 Global Estimates 2015 Figure 5.2: Displacement timeline following the Manam volcanic eruption in 2004 2004 2006 2008 2010-2011 2013 Volcanic Manam Resettlement Tobenam care centre burnt Renewed Madang governor introduces bill eruption - Authority set up to identify down following clashes volcanic to establish the Manam Restoration 11,000 people and purchase land between IDPs and locals; activity Authority Act flee to care some IDPs forced to return centres on to their island Preliminary agreement on land the mainland acquisition between the Madang provincial gov’t and the landowners in Andarum

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2005 2007 2010 2014 2015 Reports of diminishing support Interagency report Manam resettlement Delegation of IDPs to Estimated and deteriorating conditions finds that minimum task force established to travel to Port Moresby 15,000 people in the care centres standards related revive the process of to present the Manam from Manam to education, health, resettling Manam IDPs Restoration Authority remain in care Tension between IDPs and water, housing and Act to the chief centres local communities, particularly nutrition are not met secretary of PNG over land use issues, lead to government who periodic violent clashes commits to adopt the Sources: IDMC interviews, 2014; ABC, 2012; OHCHR, 2011; IFRC, 2005 bill soon

Little progress was made in the fol- no clear picture of how many people are creasing number of infants and mothers lowing years, however, and the project still living in the centres and how many have died during childbirth as a result.41 remains stalled. The main obstacles have have returned to the island. After ten years in living in displace- been a shortage of funds, a lack of politi- Most of the houses in the care centres ment, the Manam island IDPs are still no cal will, bureaucratic delays and poor local are in need of repair. Roofs leak and walls closer to achieving a durable solution. technical capacity. In 2009 the MRA was are in poor shape, but IDPs say they are Local integration is not an option, and disbanded with new legislation needed to unable to access building materials from efforts to relocate them to Andarum have set up a new body. The provincial govern- the forest because the resources belong made little progress. Many have lost hope ment has also had difficulties in acquir- to the locals. They are also short of food, that it will ever happen. In the meantime ing the land concerned. It concluded a and their livelihood options are limited both short and long-term solutions are preliminary agreement with the owners because what little land is available to needed to ensure that their most pressing in 2013, but as of early 2015 it had still not them for cultivation is infertile. Some own concerns are addressed. They require im- formalised the purchase and, more than livestock and are able to fish, but many mediate assistance in meeting their food, a decade after their displacement, IDPs are barely able to get by. water, shelter and healthcare needs, and were still stuck in three care centres in Poverty and insecurity also impede reducing the number of IDPs in the care and around Bogia. When IDMC visited in their access to healthcare services. In centres is also becoming urgent. The October 2014, the displaced population June 2010, 17 IDPs living in the Potsdam government needs to make good on its had reportedly grown to around 15,000.37 care centre died of cholera. The deaths repeated promises to ensure that the A few thousand people have returned could have been prevented if an early relocation project really moves forward. to Manam despite its lack of arable land warning system had been in place to Reports that the Manam Restoration and the absence of public services.38 detect the outbreak, medicine had been Authority bill could be introduced in par- Most did so between 2008 and 2009, available to treat the disease quickly and liament in May 2015 offer a glimmer of following clashes between IDPs and the the IDPs had been able to afford the 100 hope.42 If adopted, the legislation would local population, and some returns were kina ($40) it costs to reach the nearest provide a much-needed legal basis for said to have been forced by the govern- health facility by boat. It is likely that mal- the relocation project and the allocation ment.39 Further returns have taken place nutrition also contributed to the death of adequate resources. The Madang pro- since, driven by deteriorating living condi- toll.40 vincial authorities are also considering tions in the care centres and unresolved The threat of physical attack restricts feasibility studies to assess its environ- tensions with local communities. Given IDPs’ freedom of movement, and some mental and social impact.43 the government’s failure to update its women say they are too afraid to leave data on Manam’s IDPs, however, there is their camps to seek medical care. An in-

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 55 SPOTLIGHT

INDONESIA Sidoarjo mudflow displacement unresolved after nine years

In May 2006 a mixture of mud, hot water and some scientists estimate that it may cial compensation.47 Civil society organi- and steam erupted near a gas drilling site do so for another 20 years.45 sations and victims’ associations were belonging to the private company PT Lap- Controversy about the cause of the highly critical of the ruling, and under indo Brantas. A mudflow spread quickly disaster has impeded an effective re- public pressure the company eventually to nearby villages, engulfing homes, farm- sponse to the needs of the people it has agreed to assume financial responsibility. land and public infrastructure, including displaced and other residents it has af- A further court ruling in 2014 deter- schools and factories. By the end of the fected. The company claimed an earth- mined that the company should pay com- year, it had forced more than 15,000 peo- quake two days earlier in Yogyakarta, pensation for land and property lost in ple to flee their homes. The local govern- around 250 km away, had triggered the the red zone, and that the government ment set up temporary shelters for some phenomenon. A presidential decree is- should do so for the green, blue and or- of the IDPs, but most sought refuge with sued in 2007 established the Sidoarjo ange zones, which were affected from friends and families. mudflow management agency (BPLS), 2007 to 2013 (see map).48 Compensation All efforts to stem the eruption and an ad-hoc national agency to oversee levels have been deemed fair, with dif- contain the mudflow failed, and over the the response, including the allocation of ferent rates per square metre of paddy, next few years it continued to spread, compensation for lost land and property.46 dry land and built land.49 As part of Lap- albeit at a slower pace, reaching more BPLS instructed Lapindo to compen- indo’s compensation package, around villages and displacing thousands more sate IDPs from the area the mudflow ini- 4,000 homes have been built at relocation people. By 2014, it covered around 600 tially engulfed, known as the red zone, but sites in Kahuripan Nirvana village, four hectares across three sub-districts, and in 2009 Indonesia’s Supreme Court de- kilometres from Sidoarjo, with the value had displaced 38,700 people from 12 vil- cided it was a “natural” disaster and that of the property deducted from the total lages and destroyed 11,241 buildings.44 the company had no obligation towards amount the company owes.50 The mud continues to flow to this day, those affected in terms of providing finan- Following the economic crisis in

Art installation at the Sidoarjo mudflow site by Dadang Kristianto to commemorate the 8th anniversary of the disaster. 12 villages are submerged below the surface, while steam rises from the still active source. Photo: IDMC/Frederik Kok, May 2015

56 Global Estimates 2015 Map 5.2: Sidoarjo mudflow affected areas

Source of continuous mudflow

Mud-covered area. 12 villages submerged since March 2007

Note: Orange, green and blue shading indicates areas at risk with communities declared eligible for compensation by the government Sources: Ikonos Quickbird Bapel BPLS 2008. Adapted from BPLS55

2008, however, Lapindo’s payments to they have been compensated or not. is contaminating waterways outside the IDPs slowed and many instalments were Those still awaiting compensation compensation zones and affecting fish missed, which led to demonstrations.51 have been reluctant to update their iden- stocks, and to take action to reduce the The delays and non-payments have pre- tity cards with their new places of tempo- pollution.56 vented more than 13,000 IDPs from the rary residence for fear it will complicate In May 2015, following an audit of out- red zone from achieving a durable so- their pending claims. Failure to do so, standing compensation claims, the gov- lution, nine years after the onset of the however, has prevented them from voting ernment is taking measures to bail out disaster. They have received only an initial in elections and in some cases hampered Lapindo and thereby enable the company 20 per cent of the compensation due.52 their access to healthcare services.53 to complete compensation payouts still The long wait has led to a number of Neither has BPLS provided compen- owed to displaced families. It has com- associated problems for around 5,000 sation or help in dealing with the health mitted to loaning $66 million to Lapindo IDPs dispersed across the region and consequences of the mudflow, despite by the end of Ramadan on 17 July 2015 beyond. Many have had to borrow money a spike in respiratory problems immedi- to purchase land made uninhabitable by either from banks or friends and family, ately after the eruption began and the the mudflow from IDP families at equiva- and are unable to keep up with their re- emergence of other health issues includ- lent or above-market rates.57 If payment payments. To date they have received no ing abdominal illnesses.54 Environmental is finally received, it will provide some government help in restoring their lost organisations continue to advocate for means to end what for many has been livelihoods, and have trouble finding work the government to recognise the high a nine-year wait to secure new housing and supporting their families whether heavy metal content of the mud, which and repay their debts.

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 57 SPOTLIGHT

BANGLADESH Six years after cyclone Aila, prolonged and repeated displacement continues

Six years after cyclone Aila brought dis- Between 2008 and 2014, IDMC esti- In 2010, tidal floods affected some of the aster to communities in the Ganges delta mates that more than 4.7 million people same populations displaced by Aila about region of Bangladesh, many of the people were newly displaced by rapid-onset, a year earlier,71 and in 2013 around 15,000 displaced are still to achieve a durable weather-related disasters in Bangla- families from Polder 32 were forced to solution.58 The prolonged displacement desh.65 The Nowabenki Gonomukhi Foun- take refuge inflee to storm shelters for up of people in such a highly exposed and dation (NGF)66 and its network of part- to week by the onset of cyclone Mahas- vulnerable region is not just the conse- ners have been monitoring displacement en.72 The extensive damage Aila caused quence of the Aila disaster, but of the cu- in areas affected by cyclone Sidr since to embankments has left their original mulative impacts of repeated disasters 2007. According to their reporting in May homes even more exposed to flood risk, and short-term movements that hamper 2015, as many as three million people have and some delta communities have been families’ capacity to recover before the been displaced through losing their ac- evicted from their homes to make way next setback.59 cess to habitable land due to the impact of for the building of new embankments.73 Aila made landfall on 25 May 2009, climate-related hazards and environmen- flooding villages and fields with seawater. tal degradation, while the total number Hundreds of kilometres of embankments of displaced are probably even higher.67 We repaired the dykes and that protect low-lying land from flooding It is unclear how many people from our villages emerged from the were destroyed, leaving villages inundat- across all of the areas affected by Aila water. A week later, we are ed long after the cyclone passed. Over are still living in displacement six years on, homeless again. 842,000 people were displaced, most of but NGF’s community-based surveys pro- IDP from Dacope, hit again by whom remained within Bangladesh, while vide insight into the situation of some of floods a year after Aila74 subsequent cross-border movements of the worst-hit communities. In Sutarkhali displaced people into neighbouring areas and Kamarkhola villages on Polder 32 of of India have also been reported (see fig- Dacope Upazila in Khulna district, the cy- ure 5.4).60 clone destroyed 100 and 90 per cent of Displaced people in Dacope identify a Early return and recovery were de- homes respectively.68 Six years later, 2,617 range of obstacles to finding sustainable layed as a result,61 and months into the families or 13,085 individuals - a quarter of settlement options.75 The repeated dis- emergency response agencies on the the population of the two villages - are still ruption of their traditional livelihoods by ground described a deteriorating situ- living in makeshift shelters on embank- floods and cyclones, and the limited alter- ation for IDPs and other affected com- ments within the same polder.69 Only one natives available, has eroded household munities. 62 Around 200,000 people were per cent of displaced families have moved savings and many are unable to afford still displaced after six months,63 living in out of the area.70 the high cost of relocation and settlement makeshift shelters on roads and embank- Communities across the delta are ex- elsewhere. Such a move is estimated to ments and “surrounded by unruly water at posed and vulnerable to recurrent storms, cost around $1,000, while average per high tide and at low tide by thousands of tidal floods and the gradual process of capita income is $1,190.76 hectares of desolate muddy land”64 (see saltwater intrusion that degrades the land Landless people who were squat- figure 5.3). on which many of their livelihoods depend. ting on public or private land before Aila

58 Global Estimates 2015 Figure 5.3: Displacement patterns and vulnerability in flood-prone areas

Before Cyclone Aila, people lived on land protected by embankments. Some landless people lived on embankments and roadsides.

Immediately after the cyclone, many people moved onto roads and embankments because their land was flooded. Six months after the cyclone, many embankments were still broken and land flooded. Around 200,000 people were still living on embankments and roadsides. Some returned to their land during the day but spent the night and/or high tide times on higher ground.

Until the embankments are properly repaired, return to flood-prone areas will continue to be a highly limited and unsafe option. Six years later, many people still live in temporary shelters on embankments and roadsides. Note: Adapted from IFRC/UN-Habitat report, 2009

struck are not eligible for government across the border into the Indian state of the government has increased its atten- or NGO housing assistance, despite West Bengal (see figure 5.4).83 Ninety-five tion to the issue significantly in recent their obvious needs.77 Eligibility for relief per cent of the families from Gabura is- years, particularly in the context of climate and rehabilitation support is also a ma- land on Polder 15 who were displaced af- change. National civil society and grass- jor concern for displaced families who ter Aila and the subsequent flooding have roots organisations working with vulner- move away from their registered areas relocated away from the area.84 Various able communities have also done much of residence as shown on their identity studies have highlighted links between to raise awareness of the huge scale cards.78 Some IDPs have also experienced the destruction wrought by Aila and an and immediacy of the problem, and more discrimination in accessing government increase in the trafficking of women and than 200 NGOs in Bangladesh organised assistance on the basis that they belong children to megacities in Bangladesh and under the umbrella of the Association of to an opposition party.79 This is contrary to across the border into India.85 Climate Refugees are developing solu- international standards and constitutes a The onward movement of people living tions.88 Their work includes monitoring violation of their human rights.80 in chronic displacement situations in their and reporting on climate-related displace- In a region where livelihood options home areas may be difficult to distinguish ment, and facilitating the safe and volun- are very limited, the seasonal migration from voluntary economic migration, but tary relocation of people away from low- of male family members to work as agri- given such severe vulnerability the no- lying and exposed areas to safer locations cultural or construction day labourers is tion of migration as a choice is “often with better prospects. One example of a common coping strategy among IDPs inappropriate”.86 Neither can people who best practice is the “new land” initiative by living in protracted displacement on em- relocate to live in poor conditions and ACR-Kurigram, under which private plots bankments, including those on Polder without access to basic services in infor- have been pledged for IDPs to relocate 32.81 The women left behind live in pre- mal urban settlements be considered to to in other parts of the country. carious conditions and are vulnerable to have achieved a durable solution. Many Given the scale of long-lasting and a range social risks, including sexual and continue to be vulnerable to natural haz- repeated patterns of displacement, how- gender-based violence.82 ards, violence, exploitation and eviction.87 ever, and the expected effects of climate In other affected areas, people unable The extreme exposure and vulnerabil- change, which will increase future risk, to find solutions in their areas of origin have ity to displacement of millions of people in there remains much to be done. moved more permanently to larger towns, Bangladesh’s low-lying coastal and river the megacities of Khulna and Dhaka or basin areas constitutes a major crisis, and

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 59 Figure 5.4: Movement of IDPs from areas affected by cyclone Aila

Cyclone Aila-affected settlements Destination areas Dhaka Distance (km) Primary movements Secondary/tertiary movements

km 130 West Bengal INDIA Jessore 90 km

60 km KHULNA 15 km Sathbira

Batiaghata Chittagong & CHT

Assasuni Mongla Darope

Koyra Shyamnagar

Note: The size of the circles indicates the approximate scale of the movement. Source: Adapted from Hasan Mehedi, CLEAN (NGO), July 2010

60 Global Estimates 2015 SPOTLIGHT

COLOMBIA The long road to relocation for Gramalote’s IDPs

In 2010 and 2011, a particularly intense iter- months to get the fund up and running as as neither safe nor viable. The site finally ation of La Niña, the cooling of the Pacific a functioning entity. chosen is located, as was Gramalote, Ocean’s surface, caused heavy rainfall The delay set back the Gramaloteros’ on an Andean mountainside, meaning throughout the Andes and intense flood- efforts to bring their displacement to an that there is little infrastructure in place ing and landslides in Colombia. Among end, and they are still to achieve a durable to service a new town. New electricity, the many places severely affected, the solution. Their cultural attachment to their telecommunications, water and sanita- north-eastern town of Gramalote in the town and land remains strong, however, tion installations will be needed, along mountains of Norte de Santander depart- and translates into a yearning for return. with access roads, housing, schools and ment was all but levelled by a landslide. They feel the town is not just their place of public spaces. All 2,900 Gramaloteros were evacuated residence, but a defining feature of who In May 2015, the Adaptation Fund before the disaster struck, and four-and- they are.90 published a comprehensive development a-half years later they remain displaced. Around 35 families have returned to an and relocation plan for Gramalote, with Most moved to the city of Cúcuta, 45 kilo- area of Gramalote that was not destroyed a budget of $93 million to build the new metres away.89 by the landslide, but it is considered un- town and its associated infrastructure. Colombia has managed many reloca- safe and they have done so at their own Its timeframe includes the Gramaloteros’ tion processes in preparation for, and in risk and without official support. Other relocation by the end of the year, an ambi- response to the onset of natural hazards, families have resettled in another area tious target considering the extent of the but Gramalote was unique in terms of the on the outskirts of the town, through a public works required.91 extent of the destruction it suffered, and process facilitated by the Catholic church. That said, it must be hoped that imple- the fact that the landslide took place The Gramaloteros continue to receive mentation of the new plan will not take while the country as a whole was in the housing rental support in the form of cash as long as its development, so that the throes of a disaster. and in-kind contributions of food items Gramaloteros can at last re-establish their The events of 2010 and 2011 shaped – they are the only community affected lives and their identity in a permanent new the country’s response and set it on track by the disasters of 2010 and 2011 to do home. towards better preparedness in the fu- so – but the Adaptation Fund and local ture. The systems put in place were devel- authorities have moved at a snail’s pace oped with a long-term view to mitigating in helping them find a permanent solution and managing risk, including the Fondo to their displacement. Adaptación, or Adaptation Fund - an insti- Once the fund was up and running, it tution with budgetary and administrative proved difficult to find a nearby site suit- autonomy and a strong technical focus. able for the construction of a new town. Creating a new institution from scratch Technical assessments were conducted in the aftermath of a large-scale disaster and came close to identifying two loca- was no easy task, however, and it took 18 tions, but they were ultimately dismissed

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 61 SPOTLIGHT

HAITI Chronic vulnerability and protracted displacement five years after the earthquake

Haiti has a long history of displacement, caused significant secondary displace- IDPs’ chronic vulnerability and the pro- driven both by recurrent disasters and ment since the earthquake, mostly as tracted nature of their displacement are human rights violations, but the January the result of private owners wishing to a reflection of the significant develop- 2010 earthquake forced people to flee reclaim their land on which camps were ment challenges Haiti faced before the their homes on an unprecedented scale. set up.98 Many evictions have fallen short earthquake and the high, ongoing level As many as 2.3 million people were dis- of international standards on the right to of disaster risk. The country is one of the placed,92 of whom 1.5 million took refuge adequate housing. They have involved the world’s poorest, most unequal and most in camps and camp-like settings, most of demolition of shelters, violence and intimi- prone to disasters.108 Its ranking on the UN them in and around the capital, Port-au- dation by the police or individuals hired by Development Programme’s human devel- Prince (see figure 5.5).93 More than five owners to force residents to leave and opment index fell from 149th out of 187 years after the disaster struck, many have those affected have lost assets and fallen countries in 2009, to 168th in 2013. Tak- yet to achieve durable solutions. deeper into poverty.99 Many did not re- ing the unequal distribution of wealth into The number of IDPs living in temporary ceive alternative accommodation.100 account, this 2013 ranking falls to 171st.109 or transitional camps has fallen by 96 per More than 60,000 IDPs have been Lack of development and poor gov- cent, but there were still 64,680 of them evicted from camps since 2010, and 176 ernance increase people’s vulnerability to registered as of March 2015 (see figure sites have been closed as a result.101 The disasters, hamper their ability to recover 5.5).94 Living conditions in the camps are number of forced evictions fell in 2014,102 in and undercut the sustainability of inter- very poor, and a combination of over- part thanks to advocacy efforts by the pro- ventions. In a context where state institu- crowding and unsafe housing makes the tection cluster’s partners and various min- tions and their enforcement capacity re- risk of gender-based violence worse.95 istries.103 Forced evictions have also taken main weak, the situation is made worse by There is far less information on the num- place from informal settlements such as new and repeated displacement caused ber and living conditions of IDPs outside Canaan, Jerusalem and Onaville, where by recurrent disasters, forced evictions, of camps or their living conditions. many previous camp inhabitants live.104 development projects and gang vio- Of the more than 1.4 million IDPs who Since 2010, more than 260,000 left lence.110 have left their camps since 2010, 1.1 million their camps after receiving one-year rent- The country’s displacement camps did so for unknown reasons and there is al subsidies to address the needs of the are a symptom of a wider housing crisis. no information on their current situation majority of IDPs who were tenants rather Some 105 000 houses were destroyed (see figure 5.6).96 They cannot, however, than homeowners.105 Many beneficiaries, and 208 160 homes were badly damaged be assumed to have achieved durable so- however, have had to leave their accom- by the earthquake, adding to a pre-exist- lutions. A 2013 survey on the living condi- modation when their grant expired, for ing national shortage of 700, 000 units.111 tions of IDPs suggests that their access the most part because they were unable Reconstruction has been painfully slow. to key goods and services, particularly to afford their rent without support.106 In Only an estimated 37,000 permanent housing, education, healthcare, water, se- the absence of associated livelihood and homes had been repaired, rebuilt or built curity and livelihoods, was worse than for income-generating initiatives, the cash by early 2015.112 the general population (see figure 5.7).97 grants offered only a transitional solution Poverty and weak urban governance Forced evictions from camps have for many.107 make reconstruction particularly chal-

62 Global Estimates 2015 Figure 5.5: Total number of people displaced by the Haiti earthquake disaster from January 2010 to March 2015

2.5 2,300,000

2.0

Estimated peak number of people displaced in January 2010 (UN OCHA)

1,500,000 Gap in available data 1.5 1,370,000 IDPs in camps and camp-like settlements from July 2010 (IOM DTM data)

1,069,000

1.0 806,000 680,000

People displaced (millions) 635,000 595,000551,000 519,000516,000 491,000 420,000 0.5 390,000 369,000358,000 347,000320,000 279,000 172,000 147,000138,000104,000 85,000 80,000 65,000

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 JAN JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN FEB APR JUN AUG OCT DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC MAR JUN SEP DEC MAR

Figure 5.6: IDPs’ reasons for leaving camps between Figure 5.7: Comparing access to key goods and services July 2010 and March 2015 pre- and post-earthquake (better or worse; % change)

Residents of significantly damaged areas of Port-au-Prince Reason unknown People never displaced People displaced (spontaneous departure) Better 10 1,142,500 people 0

1 year rental subsidy -10 268,700 people -20

Percentage change -30 Forcibly evicted 60,570 people -40

Worse -50 Source of data: IOM DTM, March 2015 Jobs Health Water Credit Latrines Housing TransportEducation

Safety and Security

Source of data: Brookings and IOM, 2014. Based on survey of 2,576 households in areas where 25% or more of households were destroyed. Survey conducted October to December 2013

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 63 Conditions have continued to deteriorate in the lenging. Uncontrolled urbanisation of ditions and vulnerability and exposure to remaining camps where earthquake IDPs like 117 74-year old Velina Saint Fleur are still living. Port-au-Prince before the earthquake led natural hazards. Temporary tents have been left in shreds by rain to the rapid expansion of informal set- Achieving durable solutions for Haiti’s and hurricanes. tlements, most of them in areas highly IDPs will require a combination of short- Photo: ECHO/Evelyn Hockstein, April 2014 https://flic.kr/p/pZFube exposed to natural hazards such as floods term measures to mitigate the recurrence and landslides and with only limited ac- of crises and longer-term development cess to services.113 Eighty per cent of city’s interventions to reduce poverty and dis- population was living in such areas when aster risk, strengthen the rule of law and the earthquake struck, and they suffered rein in human rights violations such as the worst of the destruction it caused.114 forced evictions. The reinforcement of ac- The absence until 2014 of a national countable urban governance at both the framework to guide reconstruction ef- national and municipal level would also forts, clarify building regulations, deter- facilitate IDPs’ integration into develop- mine residential areas and regularise ment plans, and the provision of afford- informal settlements made it difficult for able housing for the most vulnerable. humanitarian and development organisa- Amid the tremendous challenges in tions to engage in providing IDPs with this complex context, encouraging initia- permanent housing solutions.115 A short- tives should also be noted. These include age of suitable urban land and an unclear the gradual efforts to transform some ownership of land and housing presented informal settlements, such as Canaan, further obstacles, leading most respond- and IDP displacement camps into new ers to focus on temporary solutions such neighbourhoods with permanent hous- as transitional shelter and cash grants ing, improved tenure security and better for rent.116 access to services.118 The few permanent housing initiatives undertaken have focused on homeown- ers to the exclusion of the overwhelming majority of IDPs who were tenants before the earthquake, and who had to resort to makeshift housing thereby perpetuating the slum pattern with poor sanitary con-

64 Global Estimates 2015 SPOTLIGHT

PAKISTAN Protracted displacement from areas affected by the Hunza valley landslide and floods

In Pakistan’s mountainous Hunza valley ated a natural dam a kilometre wide the remainder live with host families and in Gilgit-Baltistan territory, more than across the Hunza river, behind which a in rented accommodation. 2,000 people are still displaced after lake formed over the following months. The lake also submerged around 15 they were forced to flee their homes five Flow into the lake was further increased kilometres of the Karakoram highway, years ago when two related disasters by seasonal glacier melt in May 2010. the only road connection between the struck the area over the course of a few Before the rising waters all but sub- area and the rest of the country, and be- months.119 merged the villages of Ainabad, Shishkat, tween Pakistan and China.125The loss of On 4 January 2010 a huge landslide Gulmit, Ghulkin and Hussaini,123 more the highway affected 20,000 inhabitants destroyed parts of the villages of Attabad than 2,340 people, or 260 families were of the Gojal sub-district who, although and Sarat, sweeping much of the former evacuated, increasing the overall number they were not displaced, were cut off into the Hunza river.120 Boulders and de- of IDPs to more than 3,600.124 They took from markets, education and healthcare bris carried from the Attabad area were refuge in camps and with host families in services in downstream areas such as deposited in Sarat. Nearly 1,300 people, nearby villages. Aliabad and Gilgit.126 or 141 families were evacuated ahead of Those still displaced as of May 2015 The Pakistani government provided the landslide,121 but it still took 19 lives.122 live in the villages of Altit, Aliabad, Ka- emergency relief through its National Dis- The second disaster ensued because rimabad and Hyderabad. The majority are aster Management Authority, and the Chi- material loosened by the landslide cre- still housed in transitional shelters, and nese government gave food assistance to both IDPs and the 20,000 people in Gojal. Table 5.2: Number of Hunza valley IDPs The army also dug a spillway for the dam Village of Number of people still dis- Number of people still to prevent the water level in the lake from Hazard origin placed at the end of 2010 displaced as of May 2015 rising further and eventually to reduce Families Individuals Families Individuals it. Its effect has been limited, however, and draining the lake has proved a slow Attabad Landslide 141 1,269 100 900 process.127 and Sarat In mid-2011 the government paid Ainabad 32 288 21 189 compensation to each displaced family Shishkat 150 1,350 100 900 of 600,000 rupees ($5,600) for destroyed Lake for- More than More than or submerged housing and 200,000 ru- mation Gulmit 10 90 61 549 pees ($1,900) for lost land. The payments Ghulkin 7 63 0 0 did not reflect the actual losses incurred, however, because habitable and arable Hussaini 10 90 0 0 land in Gojal and Gilgit-Baltistan as a More than More than Total 231 2,079 whole are expensive and in short supply. 401 3,609 The formation of the lake has reduced the Sources: Sökefeld M, The Attabad landslide and the politics of disaster in Gojal, Gilgit-Baltistan, 2012, p.185; amount of viable land still further, which in IDMC interview, May 2015; number of individuals calculated from the number of families based on a family size of nine turn has been a major factor in prolonging

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 65 Map 5.3: Ongoing displacement in the Hunza valley following the 2010 Attabad landslide

0 5 km Area buried by the landslide Ba tur a G Settlement lacier Maximum flooded area, July 2010 S him s Karakoram highway ha l Riv e r Flooded portion of Karakoram highway Pasu

TAJ IKIS TAN Pasu TURKMENISTAN CHINA Glacier Kharamabad ! Borith

Jammu & AFGHANISTAN Kashmir

! Hussaini Gh ulkin Zarabad Glacier P A K I S T A N Gulmit Glac Ghulkin ier r IRAN e iv R INDIA a z n u 90 displaced people H

Note:A Allr a displacementb i a n S e a figures are as of May 2015 Gulmit Sources: N. Cook and D. Butz, November 2013; M. Sökefeld, 2012; IDMC interview, May 2015 Shishkat 900 displaced 900 displaced people people

Attabad Salmanabad Ahmadabad Sarat Ainabad 190 displaced people

the displacement of the remaining IDPs.128 Overall, much less assistance was de- Karakoram highway again. This should The Pakistan Red Crescent Society livered than originally promised. Nor were help the valley’s inhabitants, including and Focus Humanitarian Assistance, an different programmes well coordinated, the remaining IDPs, to at least partially organisation affiliated to the Aga Khan and government officials were accused re-establish their former lives and liveli- Development Network, have also pro- of corruption.132 A series of protests were hoods by restoring their access to mar- vided IDPs with assistance.129 Focus dis- organised against the authorities’ per- kets, services, education and employment tributed two months’ worth of aid from the ceived inaction in draining the lake, and opportunities further south. World Food Programme, paid for with a untimely and inadequate assistance. In They will also be able to work in the USAID grant. The Aga Khan Rural Sup- August 2011, police killed two protesting transport sector and set up small road- port Programme set up a business revi- IDPs and injured another three, which trig- side businesses again, but opportunities talisation programme and a cash-for-work gered further rallies and led to the arrest to return to cultivating cash crops will be project, and the government has provided of a number of demonstrators on sedition limited for a number of years to come. The school subsidies.130 Since 2014, two river and other charges.133 lake no longer covers much of the area’s ambulances have been transporting peo- A Chinese state company is building a arable land, but it has left it covered in ple to medical facilities downstream from new section of road which, if it opens as a thick layer of sediment, making it very the dam as part of a USAID programme.131 planned in August 2015, will complete the difficult to farm.134

66 Global Estimates 2015 SPOTLIGHT

JAPAN Living in limbo four years after the Tōhoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident disaster

In March 2011, a powerful earthquake clear plant were still under evacuation varying attitudes towards return and the off the east coast of Japan triggered an orders as of October 2014, as shown in general instability of IDPs’ situations have unprecedented disaster in the region of map 5.4. In May 2015, the government combined to create tensions within af- Tohoku. The magnitude 9.0 event was announced its intention to lift its orders fected communities and families, and the strongest ever to hit the country, and in remaining parts of areas one and two have led some couples to divorce.144 caused a tsunami on a scale expected within two years,139 but the number of peo- Many evacuees had to move a number only once in 1,000 years.135 Most of the im- ple who have returned or intend to return of times in the first six months after the mediate damage and losses were linked remains low.140 Many are still concerned disaster,145 which has also contributed to to the tsunami, including the deaths of about radiation levels, and unsure as to the splitting up of members of the same 18,479 people and the inundation of the whether they would be able to resume households. Forty-seven per cent of emergency generators needed to cool the a normal life.141 It is unlikely that return to those surveyed towards the end of 2011 reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear area three will be permitted for the fore- said they had moved three or four times, power station.136 The power failure led to seeable future. and 36 per cent five or six times. Some the meltdown of three reactors and the Some people living in parts of Fuku- younger adults have made their own worst radiation leaks since the 1986 Cher- shima not officially designated evacuation temporary housing arrangements, such nobyl disaster in Ukraine. zones left of their own accord because as renting apartments, while older gen- More than 470,000 people were forced of increased radiation levels. There is erations have stayed in the prefabricated to flee their homes, and four years later no systematic data on those who did so, facilities provided. Some IDPs have left for around 230,000 are still displaced and un- but research suggests that many were other parts of the country.146 able to achieve durable solutions.137 High mothers with young children who feared Given their disrupted livelihoods and levels of radiation, low levels of trust in health risks, and who left their husbands dispersed and divided communities, nei- official information and poor consultation behind to work and support their fami- ther mandatory nor voluntary evacuees with the communities affected have de- lies.142 Mandatory evacuees from official have been unable to plan for the future, layed solutions for IDPs who are unable zones are eligible for compensation ac- and prospects for a return to normality are or unwilling to return to their homes. Most cording to the category of area they left, dwindling. In the immediate aftermath of are from Fukushima prefecture, where with payments ending a year after the the disaster, evacuees’ primary concern 164,865 people living near the damaged evacuation orders are lifted. In contrast, was when they would be able to return nuclear plant were evacuated. According voluntary or unofficial evacuees receive home. Four years on, however, it is primar- to official figures, 116,284 were still dis- little compensation and are not entitled ily older residents, and particularly those placed as of March 2015 (see figure 5.8).138 to the same assistance.143 This differing still living in temporary housing, who long Wide areas around the damaged nu- treatment, anxiety about radiation risks, to return.

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 67 The mental and physical health of Figure 5.8: Displacement following the Tōhoku disaster from nuclear IDPs has also deteriorated. A 2015 sur- contaminated areas and earthquake/tsunami affected areas, 2011-2015 vey of evacuees revealed that many from 200 both inside and outside official evacua- tion zones were suffering from sleeping 2011 disorders, anxiety, loneliness and depres- sion.147 Fukushima is the only prefecture 164,865 2015 where the number of deaths resulting from health issues and suicides related 150 to the disaster has exceeded the toll from the direct impacts of the earthquake and 128,197 tsunami.148 Older people are particularly affected, with those above the age of 66 116,284 accounting for more than 90 per cent of 149 such fatalities. 100 There are also many obstacles to IDPs’ achievement of durable solutions in Miy- agi and Iwate, the two prefectures worst 69,561

affected by the tsunami. Recovery could People displaced (thousands) start sooner in these prefectures than in Fukushima’s evacuation zones, but they 50 43,096 face their own contextual issues. Less data is available on the situation of IDPs in 28,950 Miyagi and Iwate than in Fukushima, and the latter has received much more politi- cal attention.150 The number of evacuees has dropped in both prefectures since its 0 peak in June 2011151, due in large part to Fukushima - IDPs Iwate - IDPs from Miyagi - IDPs from people moving away from coastal areas, from nuclear earthquake/tsunami earthquake/tsunami particularly from towns whose centres contaminated zones affected areas affected areas were razed.152 Many areas were already experienc- ing depopulation before the tsunami, and the disaster has increased this trend. As Source of data: Fukushima prefectural government, 2015; in Fukushima, many younger residents Japan Reconstruction Agency, 2015 and families frustrated by the slow pace of reconstruction have moved to urban centres in search of better housing, edu- cation and work opportunities.153 social cohesion, but one of the main acquisition of enough land suitable for A number of coastal municipalities in factors behind municipalities’ decisions large-scale relocation proved difficult in Miyagi and Iwate have begun the process not to go ahead with them was the dif- coastal areas with complex topography, of permanently relocating communities ficulty they faced in reaching a consensus and some schemes had to be redrafted from tsunami devastated areas to higher among the communities concerned and several times as a result.159 Only 48 per ground or inland, where they are less ex- many such schemes have left the local cent of land development in relocation posed to future risks.154 The length of time population divided. Some residents, such sites is expected to be complete by March needed to complete these schemes is as those who previously worked in the 2016.160 measured in years rather than months.155 fishing industry, were unwilling to resettle Relocation schemes have been put Collective resettlement schemes in Japan away from the coast.157 Others, particu- in place for a relatively small number of have traditionally been designed with the larly those who lost family members, felt coastal communities from areas officially relocation of smaller communities in mind, too traumatised to rebuild their homes in designated as unsafe for reconstruc- as in the case of mountainous villages areas the tsunami devastated.158 tion and habitation. Residents are free affected by landslides. As of December Cost and the availability of suitable to choose whether or not to participate 2011, 37 municipalities had included col- land have also been significant obstacles. in the schemes, but the basis on which lective relocation in their recovery plans, Many subsidies have been introduced, they make their decisions are often in- but only 26 eventually decided to imple- but relocation remains an expensive op- consistent and unclear, with confusion ment such schemes.156 tion for the struggling municipalities and between different administrative levels The plans were designed to preserve many of their displaced residents. The of government and poor communication

68 Global Estimates 2015 Map 5.4: Mandatory evacuation zones in Fukushima prefecture

Date City

Iitate Village

Kawamata Town

Minamisoma City

Katsurao Village

Namie Town

Futaba Town JAPAN Tamura City Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS Okuma Town

TomiokaTown Fukushima Kawauchi Village Fukushima NarahaTown Dai-ni NPS

Area 1: Daytime access permitted; government preparing to lift evacuation orders Area 2: Daytime access permitted; evacuation orders to be lifted within two years Area 3: No access permitted; return unlikely for a very long time Note: Areas 1 to 3 defined according to level of exposure to radiation Source: Adapted from Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, October 2014

with the affected communities.161 Some future looks set to continue for many of households who initially opted to relocate the communities affected by tsunami and changed their minds as the timeframe those from the areas of Fukushima con- for the process lengthened and costs taminated with radiation. In both cases, increased.162 addressing the long-lasting social and Those able afford it, most often psychological consequences of dis- younger families, have started to rebuild placement remains as important as the their lives elsewhere or moved to more reconstruction of infrastructure and en- urban and convenient locations, accen- vironmental remediation. tuating the shrinking economies and ag- ing populations of rural areas. For those who remain, this raises serious questions as to whether relocation will provide new homes and create sustainable commu- nities in places where people are both physically safer and also want to live. The uncertainty and anxiety of pro- longed displacement and an unclear

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 69 SPOTLIGHT

UNITED STATES Displaced people in New Jersey still seeking solutions after superstorm Sandy

Over 39,000 people who fled their homes achieving durable solutions.168 Many people who were not displaced or in east coast regions of the United States Of the 161,000 families (430,700 peo- returned quickly are still living in homes in October 2012 to escape superstorm ple) recorded as displaced in New Jersey that are damaged or do not comply with Sandy are still in need of housing assis- the day after Sandy struck, around 39,000 building standards.174 tance and longer term solutions.163 Their families (104,300 people) were still dis- Monmouth University’s polling institute predicament has lasted well beyond the placed six months later, according to the has tracked the experiences of the New two-year recovery period envisaged by state governor.169 Two and a half years Jersey residents hardest hit by the disaster the state and federal authorities.164 later, based on applications made for over time. It defines “hardest hit” as those In far more vulnerable countries hit by government reconstruction assistance, “who were displaced from their homes for the same storm, such as Haiti, protracted 14,650 families or around 39,200 people a month or more, or sustained $8,000 or displacement might be expected given who owned their destroyed pre-Sandy more in damage to a primary home due to the country’s relatively weak capacity for homes are still in need of housing solu- Sandy”. Findings from a survey in October recovery.165 The situation in the US shows tions (see figure 5.9). An unknown number 2014 show that only 28 per cent of people that poorer and more marginalised mem- who were tenants before Sandy severely still displaced after a year were able to bers of the population in a high income damaged their homes are similarly in move back to their homes over the fol- country are also more likely to face long need.170 lowing 12 months. Sixty-seven per cent term challenges. remained displaced after two years, and Heavy rains, hurricane-force winds six per cent said they would never return and extensive coastal flooding caused We cannot move one more to their original homes (see figure 5.10).175 severe disruption and damage to private time to a home that’s not ours The longer people are displaced for, homes, businesses and public infra- … Every day is 30 October the greater their needs become across structure along the eastern seaboard, 2012 for us. We’re stuck a range of areas.176 The greatest need in the Appalachians and across parts of where we were the day after among all people surveyed was for money the Midwest, forcing more than 750,000 the storm. to rebuild their homes and retrofit them people to flee their homes at the peak Displaced woman, Belmar, New for flood resilience. Among those still of the crisis.166 In the absence of a local, Jersey, 4 February 2015 171 displaced after two years, the need to state or federal agency that monitors dis- replace household items such as furni- placement caused by disasters, there are ture and appliances was far greater than no official estimates of how many people among other groups (see figure 5.11). are still without solutions to their displace- Those still displaced after two years ment.167 Many are living with family and friends were also in much greater need of finan- Specific information about the plight or in temporary rented accommodation, cial assistance. Some were struggling of people displaced in the badly affected and some have had to move a number of to meet their basic needs and feed their state of New Jersey, however, provides times.172 Some people living in damaged families, in many cases because they important insights into their ongoing mobile home communities have been for- faced the double burden of paying both needs and the obstacles they face in cibly evicted and their trailers bulldozed.173 rent and the mortgage on the former

70 Global Estimates 2015 Figure 5.9: New Jersey families displaced Figure 5.10: People hardest hit in New Jersey one and two following superstorm Sandy years after superstorm Sandy

180 160 161,000 Back in pre-Sandy 140 28% homes between 12 and 24 months 120 100 80 Back in Still 60 pre-Sandy 39,000 displaced Still displaced and 40 homes 67% 20 14,650 waiting to return

Displaced families (thousands) 48% 0 52%

Oct 2012Dec 2012Feb 2013Apr 2013Jun 2013Aug 2013Oct 2013Dec 2013Feb 2014Apr 2014Jun 2014Aug 2014Oct 2014Dec 2014Feb 2015 Still displaced and 6% will never return Note: Feb. 2015 figure includes home owners only and not tenants One year on Two years on Source of data: Oct. 2012 and Feb. 2013 - Governor of New Jersey, 2013; Feb. 2015 - Fair Share Housing Centre, Latino Action Network and NAACP, 2015 Source of data: Monmouth University Polling Institute, 2014. Based on individual responses to survey questions both one year and two years after Sandy.

Figure 5.11: Needs of the population hardest hit by superstorm Sandy by displacement status

Help with replacing furniture and appliances Money to pay for home rebuilding or elevation Help with making rent payments Help with making mortgage payments Help with utility payments (water, gas,electric) Legal assistance Help with mental/emotional counseling Help applying for construction/rebuilding permits Help with cleanup/debris removal Help with healthcare costs/coverage Help with debt management Help with purchasing food/feeding your family Still displaced Obtaining buyout of your home Back in home Help with employment Short term (<1 month) Obtaining homeowners/renters insurance /no displacement Finding a permanent home to relocate to 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Source: Monmouth University Polling Institute, 2014. Based on individual responses tosurvey questions two years after Sandy. Proportion of people hardest hit (%) homes. They were also more likely to and 18 per cent of those badly affected to their different situations and needs in need legal assistance, mental healthcare but who were able to return home within their efforts to achieve a durable solution. and counselling (see figure 5.11). two years or not displaced at all by Sandy. These include geographical barriers to Monmouth University’s research found The high incidence of psychological housing, land use and zoning restrictions, that 31 per cent of people still displaced distress among people living in prolonged and discrimination in credit and lending after two years showed potential symp- displacement is not unique to this disas- practices.179 Other issues widely cited in- toms of post-traumatic stress disorder.177 ter. Similar findings were reported after clude a lack of transparency and access The figure rises to 38 per cent for those hurricane Katrina in 2005.178 to information, and discrimination in the unable to return and who will have to find People displaced by Sandy, and par- allocation of funding.180 alternative solutions, and compares with ticularly the most marginalised among Numerous sources point to problems 3.5 per cent for the general population them, face a range of obstacles specific arising from the lack of information about

5 | Mind your assumptions: Protracted displacement following disasters 71 assistance available and implementation cent of the homes Sandy damaged were Latino families were rejected 20 per cent processes at various levels of govern- occupied by tenants rather than property more often. Eighty per cent of rejected ment. Some people have been waiting owners, this group received only 25 per applications were later deemed eligible for funds for two and a half years, and cent of the housing assistance available on reassessment (see figure 5.13).183 have been offered no explanation as to in 2014. Given that African-American, the delay. Those whose first language is Asian-American and Latino families, and not English are at a particular disadvan- lower income families across all ethnici- People like me have largely tage. According to one legal complaint ties were more likely to be tenants, the been forgotten in the recovery filed about housing discrimination, infor- bias entrenched pre-existing inequali- effort. mation in Spanish was not posted until ties and discrimination.182 After settle- Response of 71% of hardest hit after the close of public comment periods, ment of the complaint filed by the Fair people surveyed by Monmouth and in some cases contained inaccura- Share Housing Centre, the Latino Action University cies including incorrect deadlines for ap- Network and the New Jersey National plications.181 Association for Advancement of Colored The initial distribution of recovery People, US (NAACP), the authorities have Superstorm Sandy had a devastating funds and assistance was biased towards begun to address the issue, as evidenced impact on New Jersey, and huge progress homeowners. Despite the fact that 40 per by an increase in assistance for tenants has been made in the state’s overall re- to 33 per cent as of January 2015 (see covery. For the thousands of people still figure 5.12). displaced, however, the disaster is not yet Getting people back in their The Fair Share Housing, Latino Action over, and many say they feel neglected. homes is not a panacea for Network, and New Jersey NAACP report Their feelings reinforce the need for state healing all the mental health also suggests discrimination on the ba- and federal authorities to focus their at- concerns of Sandy survivors. sis of race and ethnicity in the allocation tention on those living in prolonged dis- However, it is the biggest of funding for rehabilitation, reconstruc- placement, particularly given that many single factor we see in these tion, elevation and mitigation projects for are also some of the most marginalised results. homeowners. Applications from African- members of the affected communities. Patrick Murray, director of the Mon- American families were initially rejected mouth University polling institute twice as often as those from their white non-Latino counterparts, and those from

Figure 5.12: Financial assistance allocated for the repair of Figure 5.13: Response to homeowner applications for homes damaged by superstorm Sandy – owners compared financial housing assistance - by applicants’ race and to tenants ethnicity Share of impact and allocation of funding to Renters and100 Homeowners Share of New Share of New Jersey Sandy Jersey Sandy Share of homes housing funding housing funding 80 impacted by Sandy as of January 2014 as of January 2015

60 25% 40% 33% 60% 75% 67% 40 Proportion of applicants (%)

Homeowners Tenants 20

Note: Funding for homeowners comes from the Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, Elevation and Mitigation (RREM) programme, while funding for tenants comes from the Fund for Restoration of Multi-family Housing (FRM) 0 Source: Fair Share Housing Centre, Latino Action Network and NAACP, 2015. Using FEMA data. African American Latino White Non-Latino

Withdrawn Rejected Waitlisted Funded

Note: State of New Jersey funding program for Rehabilitation, Reconstruction, Elevation and Mitigation (RREM) Source: Fair Share Housing Centre, Latino Action Network and NAACP, 2015. Using FEMA data.

72 Global Estimates 2015

A girl still living on low-lying embankments in Dacope, Bangla- desh. Hit by Cyclone Aila in 2009, the area is still very vulnerable to hazards including cyclones and tidal surges. Photo: Chirine El-Labbane/ Nansen Initiative, April 2015

74 Global Estimates 2015 THE POST-2015 6 GLOBAL POLICY AGENDA

Key findings and messages The increasing number of people dis- The time is opportune for displacement placed and at risk of becoming trapped associated with disasters to be bet- in protracted situations following dis- ter addressed in major global policy asters underscores the urgent need to agenda and their implementation in the include people displaced or at risk of post-2015 period. They include the Sus- becoming so in sustainable and inclu- tainable Development Goals, the Sendai sive development measures. Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Improved monitoring and data on dis- action on climate change under the UN- placement is needed to measure the FCCC and preparatory work for the 2016 achievement of national and global World Humanitarian Summit. policy targets for inclusive and sustain- A comprehensive approach to dis- able development, disaster risk reduc- placement will help to forge strong tion and management, and adaptation links and continuity between these ini- to climate change. tiatives, and support the implementation In order to prioritise resources and tar- of global and national commitments. get responses to where they are most Displacement can no longer be con- needed, a common framework for col- sidered as a primarily humanitarian is- lecting, interpreting and comparing sue, nor one that is specific to conflict displacement data should be estab- situations. In most countries affected it lished between government and part- has multiple and overlapping causes, ner organisations and across different and addressing it requires close coordi- timeframes. nation of humanitarian and development Special attention should be paid to col- policy and action within and between lecting data disaggregated by gender, governments. age and specific vulnerabilities, and to monitoring the situation of people caught in long-lasting or chronic dis- placement.

6 | The post-2015 global policy agenda 75 Displacement associated with disasters to IDPs in its definitions of vulnerable by disasters to rebuild their lives and liveli- is a global phenomenon with implications and marginalised groups. Displacement hoods forms a necessary part of making for major areas of policy and action cur- indicators may also be incorporated into progress towards them. rently under discussion. These include resilience targets 1.5 and 11.5: As signatory states embark on their the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk efforts to reach the SDGs, the monitor- Reduction endorsed in March, the Sus- 1.5: “By 2030, build the resilience of the ing and measuring of progress will be tainable Development Goals (SDGs) to poor and those in vulnerable situations vital. Doing so will require agreement on be adopted later in the year, negotiations and reduce their exposure and vul- global, national and sub-national base- ahead of the conference of the parties to nerability to climate-related extreme lines, benchmarks and definitions for the the UNFCCC in Paris at the end of it, and events and other economic, social and aggregation of data, and local to global preparations for the World Humanitarian environmental shocks and disasters.” sharing of information. To enable the Summit in May 2016. monitoring of people who face challenges The relevance of displacement to all 11.5: “By 2030, significantly reduce the and risks related to displacement that may these initiatives underlines the need for number of deaths and the number of lead to their exclusion from development strong links and continuity between them, people affected and decrease by [x] gains, data should be collected by gender, global commitment to their implementa- per cent the economic losses rela- age and specific vulnerabilities, and pay tion and national accountability for do- tive to gross domestic product caused particular attention to those trapped in ing so. Their success will depend on the by disasters, including water-related long-lasting or chronic displacement. extent to which they provide a coherent disasters, with a focus on protecting Work is already underway at differ- framework for comprehensive, integrated the poor and people in vulnerable ent levels, including the UN Statistical and long-term approaches to the issue. situations.” Commission (UNSC)’s recent global ini- Their outcomes will also rely heavily on tiative to address gaps in displacement signatory governments’ ability to meas- This could, in effect, provide a measure data and work on disaster statistics at ure and demonstrate concrete progress of the number of people displaced by the the regional level by the UN Economic towards achieving their goals. events mentioned, and those who have and Social Commission for Asia and the achieved durable solutions. Member states Pacific. As the secretary general’s special may also suggest that the SDGs’ central representative for disaster risk reduction 6.1 Sustainable development for commitment to “leave no one behind” has said: “Access to information is critical all: Including those displaced by should explicitly include IDPs and refu- to successful disaster risk management. disasters gees, a point already underscored by the You cannot manage what you cannot The Millennium Development Goals UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, in his measure.”2 (MDGs) were established in 2001 to guide synthesis report on the post-2015 agenda.1 the international community’s develop- Reference to the devastating impact of ment agenda. World leaders are due to chronic and protracted humanitarian crises 6.2 Down to business: adopt their successor, the SDGs, at a and displacement on sustainable develop- Implementing the Sendai summit in September. Preparations for ment may also be included in the political framework the summit represented an important declaration on the post-2015 agenda. Displacement is well positioned in the opportunity to put displacement on the No matter how and where displace- Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Re- agenda, and to better focus support for ment features in the SDGs, it should be duction 2015-2030. Endorsed by 187 coun- governments to ensure that related is- recognised as a global issue requiring tries in March, it contains four paragraphs sues are properly addressed in national a particular focus. Alongside countries’ that mention the term, spanning the back- and local development plans. broader efforts to make progress toward ground rationale and the issues of risk During the final stages of preparing the proposed goals - whether on poverty governance, preparedness, response and proposals on the SDGs and their associ- reduction, health, nutrition and food se- recovery and reconstruction. Evacuations ated targets, UN member states debated curity, education, income and gender in- are addressed in a separate paragraph, the inclusion of a stand-alone target for equality or access to safe drinking water - and relocation as a preventative meas- reducing the number of IDPs and refu- they face the additional and considerable ure is also mentioned, as are migrants gees, including via long-term efforts to challenge of responding to the needs of as a group whose participation at the lo- facilitate the achievement of sustainable large numbers of people displaced by cal level should be supported. Sendai’s solutions to their displacement. Ultimate- disasters every year. predecessor, the Hyogo Framework for ly, however, they were unable to agree on From one perspective, preventing and Action, made only passing reference to such an undertaking among the set of 17 responding to displacement represents displacement issues. SDGs and 169 targets. just another in a long list of intractable Priority two of the Sendai framework In its absence, discussions have been problems. From another, however, it calls on states to: underway to consider other ways of in- addresses an urgent global issue that “Promote transboundary cooperation corporating displacement into the final threatens to undermine all of the SDGs. to enable policy and planning for the framework, including explicit reference In other words, helping people displaced implementation of ecosystem-based

76 Global Estimates 2015 A landslide devastated villages in Badakhshan province, Afghanistan on 2 May 2014. Over 6,300 people were displaced. Photo: IOM/Matt Graydon, 2014

approaches with regard to shared re- UNSC and other bodies working with of risk such as poverty, rapid and un- sources, such as within river basins displacement and disaster risk data at the planned urbanisation, weak governance and along coastlines, to build resil- global and regional level have an impor- and environmental degradation. If they ience and reduce disaster risk, includ- tant role to play in developing standards, fail to make significant progress in these ing epidemic and displacement risk.” baselines and benchmarks for monitor- areas, the inclusion of displacement in ing the framework’s implementation. As the Sendai framework will have been a Priority four highlights the need to: the region worst affected by disasters pyrrhic victory. “Promote regular disaster prepared- and their impacts, Asia and the Pacific ness, response and recovery exercis- will have a strong voice in policy dialogue es, including evacuation drills, training and reporting at the global level. Regional 6.3 Heading for Paris: and the establishment of area-based efforts are underway by member states Displacement in climate change support systems, with a view to ensur- and experts from the UN Economic and negotiations ing rapid and effective response to Social Commission for Asia and the Pa- In the 2010 Cancun Adaptation Frame- disasters and related displacement, cific (ESCAP)’s statistics committee. An work, parties to UNFCCC recognised the including access to safe shelter, es- expert group has been tasked with de- need to address displacement as part of sential food and non-food relief sup- veloping common basic standards and a countries’ efforts to adapt to the negative plies, as appropriate to local needs.”3 compilation guide for the disaster statis- impacts of climate change.6 Given that tics needed to monitor progress towards the Cancun framework still stands today The framework does not, however, spe- achieving the objectives of both the Sen- and is not time-bound, some have ques- cifically call on states to collect data on dai framework and the SDGs.5 tioned why the anticipated agreement at displacement. One solution to this might In the long run, the main challenge for the Paris conference of parties (COP21) be to incorporate displacement-specific Sendai’s signatories will lie in the robust should have to reaffirm this. indicators into national disaster loss da- implementation of the framework’s pro- The fact is, however, that the Paris tabases. Another cause for concern is visions. If the Hyogo framework serves agreement will set the agenda for the com- that it lacks measurable benchmarks for as an indicator, states will have to make ing years. The increased risk of displace- assessing progress towards implementa- more effort to reduce disaster risks ef- ment triggered by weather-related hazards tion. Rather than including quantitative fectively. Thus far they have made pro- underscores the need for the issue to be targets, its seven global objectives aim gress in life-saving areas such as early put firmly on that agenda. The agreement to reduce risks and enhance capacities warning, evacuations and response, but will also establish both implicit and explicit “substantially”.4 they have struggled to address drivers guidelines on financing and action to miti-

6 | The post-2015 global policy agenda 77 gate the effects of climate change, and it innovation, and serving the needs of unable to cope with the phenomenon will be much easier to mobilise resources people in conflict. All four are relevant puts considerable and growing pressure in support of issues included in it. to some of the challenges inherent in on the international system for humani- The issue of displacement associ- displacement associated with disasters, tarian protection and assistance. It is ated with climate change appears in the and aim to build clear links between con- also clear that displacement cannot be draft text that will serve as a basis for the current global development, disaster risk considered a purely humanitarian issue. agreement. The agenda item related to reduction and climate change processes The increasing number of people trapped “the work programme on loss and dam- around a common thread of building re- in chronic and protracted displacement age associated with the negative impacts silience to the changing nature of shocks underscores the urgent need for greater of climate change” includes a proposal and stresses. investment in disaster risk reduction and to establish a “displacement coordina- A number of recommendations rel- development approaches that facilitate tion facility”. This has the potential to evant to disaster displacement have the achievement of durable solutions. address a number of issues related to emerged. They emphasise the need to At this crossroads for key global agen- population movements, be they planned better align humanitarian and develop- das addressing some of the world’s most or unplanned, voluntary or forced. ment approaches and action on disaster pressing problems, situating displace- The current proposal, however, is risk reduction, and to invest significantly ment accurately within each of them can flawed in two ways. Not only would the more in the pursuit of sustainable solu- seem daunting. It should, however, be suggested facility duplicate some func- tions to protracted displacement. They framed and addressed as an issue that tions of existing UN entities, but address- also encourage governments to invest underlies and cuts across a number of ing displacement exclusively as an issue more money and effort in managing global challenges. Preparedness and re- of “loss and damage” ignores the fact that disaster risk, including through the im- sponse initiatives must also be more ef- there are many ways in which the risk of provement and implementation of legal fective in prioritising stretched resources it can be reduced through effective ad- frameworks, and stress the important to reach the most vulnerable populations aptation. role of regional organisations in disas- in multi-risk environments. The Paris agreement should encour- ter preparedness, and of civil society in It is encouraging that so many govern- age countries to reduce the risk of dis- strengthening local communities’ capaci- ments and civil society partners are work- placement occurring in the first place, ties and resilience. ing together on cross-cutting issues of facilitate responses when it does hap- Regional consultations in Abidjan, global concern. The very fact that forums pen and ensure that IDPs achieve durable Tokyo, Pretoria and Budapest recom- exist within which such issues can be ad- solutions that remove them from cycles mended the strengthening of national dressed is a sign that there is political will of ongoing and worsening risk. It should and regional legal frameworks on dis- to improve on the status quo. also consider displacement risk associ- placement, and mentioned the Kampala In terms of displacement associated ated with efforts to mitigate greenhouse Convention as a model. The convention with disasters, governments and their gas emissions, something that has never has a number of provisions relevant to partners need to collect and report high- been addressed as part of the UNFCCC. displacement associated with disasters. It quality data and use it to inform targeted calls for the development of early warning responses to what constitutes a growing systems, disaster risk reduction strate- global crisis. Such information will also 6.4 Towards Istanbul: Transforming gies and response measures in areas enable them to gauge to what extent they humanitarian action at risk of displacement. In line with the are succeeding in making a difference to The first World Humanitarian Summit Guiding Principles, it also obliges states the tens of millions of people whose lives will take place in Istanbul in May 2016, and to protect communities with special at- are turned upside down each year when preparations are reaching a crucial stage. tachment to or dependence on their land, they are forced to flee their homes. Since the UN secretary general launched such as pastoralists. the initiative in 2013, nearly three years Discussions leading up to the summit of regional and thematic consultations have also explored the interplay between have taken place involving governments, disasters and conflict, and recognised UN agencies, NGOs, universities, think that addressing them as separate issues tanks and private companies from all over in countries affected by both leads to the world. Many of them come to an end a poor analysis of the risk environment on 31 July 2015, but not before they have and the range of solutions required. Other captured different perspectives on the discussions have covered risk finance future of humanitarian action and helped mechanisms to address displacement is- to prioritise recommendations. sues, recognising that insurance and risk The consultations have been guided transfer instruments can help to mitigate by four major themes - humanitarian ef- some risks and even improve resilience. fectiveness, reducing vulnerability and As this report shows, the scale and managing risk, transformation through complexity of displacement in countries

78 Global Estimates 2015 ANNEX A Methodology

IDMC’s annual Global Estimates report provides a quantified global view of displace- ment associated with disasters brought on by natural hazards, based on the best data available. Depth is addressed in a more anecdotal way, via case studies and other specific examples that provide insights into patterns, trends and qualitative issues. These notes detail the methodology we use to produce our global estimates, modelled displacement trends and research on protracted displacement.

The annex is divided into three parts: 1. the methodology used to create our global dataset, which measures the incidence of new displacement for each year since 2008 and now includes 2014 2. the methodology used to produce the latest iteration of our probabilistic model of average historical displacement and trends from 1970 to 2014 3. the methodology used to gather and analyse information about prolonged and protracted displacement

findings on displacement caused by dis- vary greatly. Some events fall on a con- A.1 asters in 2014 and compares it with data tinuum between rapid-onset and slowly for the seven-year period from 2008 to evolving events. The annual measurement of 2014. We encountered regular challenges Sub-types and “sub-sub-types” of haz- new displacement caused in the collection, compilation and inter- ard are also covered. Specific hazards pretation of data from different sources, are often part of a series of cascading or by disasters between 2008 including varying institutional mandates, inter-related hazards that take place over and 2014 research domains, terminology and defi- hours or months as a disaster unfolds, nitions, and the variety of reasons organi- such as aftershocks and other secondary This part of the annexe refers only to sations had for collecting and publishing hazards following a major earthquake, or our annual global estimates based on the the data in question. floods and landslides during or after a direct reporting of displacement events. We have introduced new develop- period of heavy rainfall. As explained in section two, we define ments into our methodology since last Our global data includes displace- displacement as the forced movement of year’s report as part of our continuous ment associated with all of the hazard individuals or groups of people from their efforts to increase the accuracy, quality types described in the non-exhaustive homes or places of habitual residence, as and consistency of our data. They include list shown in table A.1, with the excep- described in the 1998 Guiding Principles a new formula for the calculation of aver- tion of drought. Drought and gradual on Internal Displacement. age household size, the use of UN naming processes of environmental degradation It does not matter how far or for how for countries and territories and updates can be significant drivers of disaster and long people are forced to move. We con- to the categorisation of different hazards. displacement, but they are less directly sider people rendered homeless or de- attributable as the primary trigger and are prived of their livelihoods but who remain Scope, resolution and limitations beyond the scope of our methodology for close to their original dwellings as dis- Typological: The classification of the producing aggregated global estimates. placed, whether they do so by choice or events behind our estimates and histori- We are developing different methodol- because they have no alternative access cal trend model refers to the original or ogies to analyse slow-onset hazards and to shelter and assistance. A rapid-onset primary hazard that triggered the disas- their contribution to crises and displace- shock in the form of a natural hazard may ter and displacement. It covers disas- ment as part of a complex mix of driv- trigger such movements, as a result of its ters associated with geophysical, mete- ers - see section four of our 2014 Global direct threat to, or impact on exposed and orological, hydrological and climatological Estimates report1 - but we are not yet in a vulnerable people. hazards that are rapid in their onset as position to provide global statistics. This year’s report presents our latest identifiable events though their dynamics

Annexes 79 Table A.1 Typology of natural hazards*

Hazard category Hazard type Hazard sub-type Hazard sub-sub-type

Geophysical Earthquake, mass move- Ground shaking, tsunami, ment, volcanic activity sudden subsidence, sink- hole, landslide, rock fall, ash fall, lahar, pyroclastic flow, lava flow, toxic gases

Meteorological Storm, extreme tempera- Extra-tropical storm, tropical Derecho, hailstorm, thunder- tures storm (includes hurricane/ storm, rain storm, tornado, cyclone), convective storm, winter storm, blizzard, sand cold wave, heat wave, severe storm, dust storm, storm winter conditions surge, gale

Hydrological Flooding, landslide, wave Coastal flood, riverine flood, action flash flood, ice jam flood, avalanche (snow, debris, mudflow, rock fall), rogue wave, seiche

Climatological Drought, wildfire Forest fire, land fire (bush, brush, pasture)

*This typology is adapted from the classification system developed by the international disaster database (EM-DAT), maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) in Brussels.

Spatial/geographical: Using an inclusive in English, French and Spanish, and to a few events associated with disasters that global scope, we recorded the incidence lesser extent in Italian, German, Russian started at the end of the previous year. of displacement induced by disasters in and Japanese. That said, our access to lo- In such cases, it was sometimes diffi- 173 countries between 2008 and 2014, and cal language sources has been improved cult to ascertain whether figures referred 100 in 2014 alone. We aggregate event- through a partnership with IOM and its to displacement that began in the previ- based estimates to provide national, national and international staff. ous year or not, but we were careful to regional and global estimates, but the For the purpose of this report, coun- minimise the risk of double counting. The data does not allow for cross-event sta- tries are defined as independent nation consideration of a range of reports that tistical analysis at the sub-national level. states, including their overseas territories described the disaster context as well Nor is it currently possible to analyse the and protectorates. For the few countries as providing figures was helpful in this data by other location-related variables covered where sovereignty is contested sense. relevant to understanding exposure to - Kosovo/Serbia, Taiwan/China and Pal- The estimates for each event or dis- hazards and vulnerability, such rural and estine - separate information was avail- aster represent the new incidence of urban settings, mountainous, river basin able and estimates were possible. The displacement, or the number of people and coastal areas. For the same reason inclusion or exclusion of these and other reported as having become displaced cross-border movements are also not contested territories does not imply any at any point during them. They do not identifiable across the global data. political endorsement or otherwise on capture rates of return, the duration of We have increased our access to in- IDMC’s part. displacement, the pattern of IDPs’ move- formation at the country level over the Though it does not change our esti- ments after their initial flight or people past few years in a number of ways. We mates per se, we have adopted the UN living in prolonged displacement from one undertake our own country missions, and naming of countries and territories more year to the next. we cooperate with our colleagues in the precisely this year, and three-digit Inter- For the time being, we are only able Norwegian Refugee Council’s country national Organisation for Standardisation to report on repeated and complex move- offices and other organisations such as (ISO) country codes are included in our ments and protracted situations anecdo- IOM and IFRC that have a local presence. database. tally or via case studies. This represents Despite these efforts, our data com- an important gap in terms of identifying pilation is still limited relative to the num- Temporal: Our data for each year since displaced populations likely to be at par- ber of countries where displacement is 2008 includes all identified displacements ticular risk and in need of protection and known to have occurred. Our research for which information was available from sustainable solutions. To address the gap, is also limited by the linguistic scope of accepted sources, and that started dur- this year’s report includes an additional our in-house experts, who work primarily ing the calendar year. It also includes a annex that lists current long-lasting or

80 Global Estimates 2015 protracted displacement situations as a For this reason we did not include 2014 cy’s situation reports. IFRC, IOM, national starting point for further monitoring. estimates for South Korea and Angola, societies and the media yielded most of and they are not included in the 2014 the data for the remaining countries. Demographic: We collect our data in dataset. It is worth noting that for other Our 2014 data includes a significant ways that aim to be as inclusive as pos- countries where alternative event-based increase in the recording of smaller-scale sible of all displaced people and without data was found, official, pre-aggregated extensive disasters. Highly detailed in- bias towards particular countries, popu- statistics gave a higher estimate of total formation on small local events was ag- lation groups or in terms of where IDPs displacement than our own, most likely gregated when they were clearly identifi- take refuge. because some events were missing from able as related to a main weather system, The displaced population in any given our data and/or because we underesti- flood season or other hazard, including situation is far from a homogenous group, mated the displacement involved in one secondary hazards such as landslides but disaggregated data is relatively rare. or more of that year’s events. This was the during a period of flooding. This type of Analysis using key metrics such as gen- case for aggregated data for 2014 from aggregation is widely used in the inter- der and age is only possible for specific China and Nepal. national reporting of disasters, and we situations or segments of the overall dis- applied it to 71 events in nine countries in placed population. Higher quality data is Events caused by “unnatural” hazards 2014.2 Detailed records of sub-events are usually limited to IDPs living in collective We have excluded events related to maintained in our database to facilitate sites or settings, where they are assessed hazards that were clearly not “natural” more granular analysis in the future. in more detail for operational purposes. in origin from our 2014 data. In Iraq, for Our data also includes reported dis- The paucity of data on those dispersed example, we did not include the displace- asters for which no displacement was re- outside official camps and collective sites ment caused by flooding after Islamic corded. If information was not available to is another important gap. Were such in- State insurgents destroyed a dam. Given compile an estimate in accordance with formation more widely available, the sta- that the destruction was not a response to our methodology, it was recorded as “no tistical analysis of patterns and trends dangerously high water levels behind the data available”, while those for which in IDPs’ differentiated needs in diverse dam, we classified the event as conflict- sources explicitly stated that no displace- contexts would be possible, which would related instead. As discussed in section 2 ment occurred were recorded as “zero in turn enable the ability of governments, of the report on concepts and definitions, displaced”. The difference is important to humanitarian and development organi- it is often difficult to determine whether note, because it is much more common sations and donors to determine where hazards are more natural or manmade, for the scale of displacement associated assistance is most needed. particularly where floods, landslides and with a disaster to be unknown than con- For the purpose of providing compre- wildfires are concerned. firmed as zero. hensive estimates, we base the overall estimate for an event on broader but less Defining a displacement event and its Defining the duration of a disaster granular information sources if they are size Defining and classifying a disaster available. This seeks to include IDPs living Our data includes events of all sizes, period can be challenging in terms of its with host communities and in other dis- ranging from a few records of only one start and end date, and its complexity be- persed settings, both within and beyond IDP to mass displacements of more than yond the direct impact of the main hazard, the areas affected by a given disaster. In 15 million people, but the sources avail- where such a hazard is clearly discern- many cases, however, the only informa- able and our methodology create a bias able. In reality, a disaster usually involves tion we are able to identify refers to a towards larger, more visible and more a number of sub-events and phases. This particular segment of the displaced pop- widely reported events. Frequent small- is particularly true of displacement across ulation, such as those living in officially scale displacements are included when- wide areas during successive periods of recognised sites, and as such the figure ever information is available, but such heavy rainfall together with secondary we record in many cases is likely to be an events are underreported. hazards such as landslides, or when simi- underestimate. We only recorded displacements of lar events happen in parallel or close suc- fewer than 100 people in 29 countries in cession in the same country or locality. Event-specific data 2014, less than a third of those covered. As the Dartmouth Flood Observatory We only record new displacement in From this, we can infer that frequent and notes: “Repeat flooding in some regions is our annual datasets when the information widely occurring small-scale events are a complex phenomenon and may require available allows event-specific estimates significantly under-reported for most a compromise between aggregating and to be made. We do not use figures that countries, as discussed in section 2. Data dividing such events”.2 The issue does not we are unable to break down, such as for Pakistan and Timor-Leste came from alter the overall estimate of the number those already aggregated at the national national Desinventar disaster loss data- of people displaced, but it does affect the level, for a whole year or by type of hazard bases, and for Colombia and Indonesia number of events recorded and the analy- or disaster. This enable verification and from government-hosted online data- sis of those events according to their size. ensures consistency and comparability bases. US data was captured from the across the data captured. Federal Emergency Management Agen-

Annexes 81 Secondary displacement than the evolution of the number of people settings. In others, they are considered a In some cases, people fleeing a natu- displaced and their movements and situa- subset of the displaced population. IDPs ral hazard or disaster were already living tions over time. Our analysis and interpre- are sometimes considered a subset of in displacement before it struck. If it was tation of information from multiple sources the affected population, and sometimes clear, for example, that people already includes the cross-checking of reported additional to it. Information describing the displaced by conflict were then forced locations and dates to ensure that figures context and point in time at which dis- to flee again in 2014 by an event such as are associated with the same disaster and placement is reported, knowledge of typi- the flooding of their camp, the new move- time period, and that double counting is cal patterns observed in similar contexts ments were recorded as new incidences avoided or minimised. All new incidences of and the quality and reliability of different of displacements related to a natural displacement during a given event or dis- sources are also taken into account. hazard. It should be noted that the very aster period are recorded, which requires We interpret the data we collect using few events of this type that we record the analysis of reporting dates and the the same broad and inclusive definition probably under-represent the frequency consideration of series of situation reports. of displaced people across all events of secondary displacement related to The estimate per event is selected worldwide. Our definition assumes they natural hazards as information across according to the most accurate and reli- are part of the population affected by a most situations is hard to identify. able figure provided or calculated based disaster, but this does not imply that all on a single source, or combined sources those affected have been displaced. We Sources of information when it is clear that overlap and double consider evacuees to be IDPs whether We regularly review the types of in- counting can be avoided. The number of or not their evacuation was pre-emptive, formation different sources release on original sources available (disregarding and we define people whose homes are the number, needs and characteristics of those that re-publish original information rendered uninhabitable as displaced, displaced people, primarily by gathering from elsewhere) varies from one or two regardless of how near or far from their and monitoring secondary reports. We for smaller events to more than four for homes they move and whether or not they systematically seek a range of sources larger events. Disasters widely covered are able to return. for each country and each disaster. For by the media or which continue for long We recognise that different situations our 2014 estimates, we increased our re- periods of time also tend to have more create different needs, but our research search capacity and analysed data from sources from which to draw. does not suggest that IDPs who flee sources including government reports If displacement was clearly reported further necessarily have greater needs and national disaster loss databases, IOM, but no explicit figures were available on or are more vulnerable. On the contrary, IFRC’s disaster management information which to base an estimate, we did not in- displacement over short distances may system, UN Office for the Coordination clude the event in our data. When figures be a better indicator of vulnerability, par- of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and were only provided in generic terms and ticularly if it is recurrent, given that those other UN agencies, humanitarian cluster more precise data was not available, we affected may be unable to make their way reports, the Asian Disaster Reduction applied the following rule: “hundreds” = to safer locations or places where they Centre’s global unique disaster identifier 200; “thousands” = 2,000; “hundreds of have better access to assistance. website and NGO reports. thousands” = 200,000 We also used reputable media outlets as a source of quotes from government Reporting terms that identify Evacuation data officials and local authorities, and local displacement In addition to direct reports of people media reports provided an additional A wide range of methods, definitions having been displaced, fled or been forced source for small events. IOM country of- and terms - such as evacuated, home- to leave their homes, we often use data fices provided field data and/or gave us less, damaged and destroyed housing, about mandatory evacuations and people access to official sources that we incor- fled, relocated and affected - are used for staying in official evacuation centres to porated into our data for 37 countries. collecting and reporting figures, and dif- estimate event-based displacement. If the original source of quantified infor- ferent sources use them in different ways. On the one hand, the number of peo- mation was unidentifiable, mostly in the Such variations arise in part because or- ple counted in evacuation centres may case of figures quoted in the media, we ganisations have different reasons for underestimate the total number of evacu- recorded it as “unspecified” rather than collecting and reporting data in the first ees, given that some may take refuge at referencing the publisher. place. In operational settings, the term unofficial sites or with family and friends. “displaced” is often applied more narrowly On the other, the number of people or- Selection and calculation of estimates than our definition. It may be used only for dered to evacuate may overstate their by event or disaster people staying in official collective sites true number, given that some will usually In providing our global estimates, we or camps, or those displaced a certain not heed the order. The potential for such aim to arrive at the best approximation distance from their homes. discrepancies is much greater when au- of the total number of people displaced In some cases evacuees who move to thorities advise rather than order evacua- by a specific event or disaster, measur- short-term evacuation centres are count- tion, and as a result we do not incorporate ing the incidence of displacement rather ed separately from IDPs in camp-like such figures into our estimates.

82 Global Estimates 2015 Data on housing rendered elled fertility rate for 2010 to 2015 plus less reliable in the most acute and high- uninhabitable and people made an “adults in household” constant of ly dynamic phases of a disaster, when homeless two is applied. peak levels of displacement are likely to Data on people rendered homeless be reached. It becomes more accurate points to a severe situation and the risk The process is honed further by prioritis- once there has been time to make more of prolonged displacement. Areas where ing selected events and countries for ad- reliable assessments. This means that homes and infrastructure have been se- ditional research to glean the most recent estimates based on later evaluations of verely damaged or destroyed are unlikely statistics available from the websites of severely damaged or destroyed housing to be able to support early safe returns. national statistics offices. For 2014, this will be more reliable, but they are also The number of people made homeless was done for all disasters that displaced likely to understate the peak level of may be reported directly, but if not we in- more than 100,000 people and all coun- displacement, given that they will not fer it from the number of homes reported tries with three or more event estimates include people whose homes escaped as severely damaged or destroyed, mul- that relied on household-level data. severe damage but who fled for other tiplied by average household size. We do Where time permitted, the same re- reasons. not use data on homes reported simply search was done for countries with sig- Reporting bodies may have an interest as damaged, because the term tends to nificant events that displaced fewer than in manipulating the number of people be too broad to determine whether or not 100,000 people but which met the second displaced. It may be to maximise the they have been made uninhabitable. criterion. Official average household sizes amount of external assistance received, for Bangladesh, Bolivia, Cambodia, China, downplay the scale of a disaster if the A new formula for calculating average India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Paki- government may be held accountable household size stan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Sudan or because international attention is Nearly half of our event-based esti- and the US were calculated in this way. deemed politically undesirable. mates rely in part on calculations based Full technical notes on this part of our on houses rendered uninhabitable mul- methodology are available on request. Improvements in the systematic collec- tiplied by average household size, but tion and sharing of reliable information standardised and up-to-date information Reporting bias on displacement are essential if we are is not available for all countries. In its ab- There are a number of causes of bias to continue to improve the quality of our sence it is not an easy parameter to enu- in our source information and methodol- reporting and monitoring - a critical first merate, but given its importance we have ogy that should be noted: step in identifying needs, prioritising as- improved this aspect of our methodology. It is often difficult to determine whether sistance and informing longer-term solu- We previously applied a rough but displacement data is reliable and com- tions. consistent calculation by adding an prehensive. Global reporting tends “adults in household” constant of two to to emphasise large events in a small Quality assurance the modelled fertility rate for 2010 to 2015. number of countries where international Ahead of this year’s report, our event- Our new formula, applied to our 2013 and agencies, donors and media have a sub- based datasets for 2008 to 2014 under- 2014 datasets, is as follows: stantial presence, or where there is a went further improvements in terms of 1. If household data is available from strong national commitment to, and ca- normalisation and standardisation, which the 2013 UN Statistics Division pacity for disaster risk and information has increased the type and quality of ana- (UNSD) household size dataset, management. lytics we can run. Background information these figures are used - total popu- Data on smaller-scale disasters is far collected for all displacement events is lation/total households - otherwise: more scarce and on the whole signifi- now archived, and preliminary estimates 2. If household data is available from cantly under-represented. The effects for all events that displaced 100 people the 1995 UNSD household dataset, of disasters on isolated and insecure ar- or more were reviewed by a minimum of these figures are used - 1995 total eas also tend to go relatively unreported two in-house researchers. The threshold population/total households - oth- because access and communications of 100 was chosen to ensure that as much erwise: are limited. data as possible was of the best quality 3. If living quarter data is available from There tends to be significantly more within time constraints that did not permit the 1995 UNSD household dataset, information available on displaced the review of every event. these figures are used - 1995 total people in official or managed collec- Reviewers checked the data recorded population/total living quarters - oth- tive sites than there is on those living for each event against its source docu- erwise: with host families and communities or ments, recorded discrepancies and com- 4. If fertility rate data for 2000 to 2005 in other dispersed settings. Given that mented on the quality of the overall esti- is available from the UN Population the majority of IDPs usually fall into the mate. Revisions were made by the person Division is available, these figures are second category, figures based on data who originally entered the data. Events used - adding an “adults in house- for collective sites only are likely to be that displaced 100,000 people or more hold” constant of 1.7, otherwise: substantial underestimates. were reviewed for a third time by a dif- 5. The previous formula using the mod- Reporting tends to be more frequent but ferent reviewer to minimise the potential

Annexes 83 for errors. IOM field and liaison offices to be captured in four decades’ worth of global data on disaster impacts. provided extensive inputs to assist in the data and by their very nature they are hard At the national level, 82 countries have analysis. to quantify. developed national disaster loss databas- To improve the quality and compre- es using the DesInventar methodology, hensive nature of the data we use to pro- which provides disaggregated and geo- duce our global estimates each year, we Disaster loss variables spatially referenced data on a number of collaborate with an increasing number and datasets for modelling disaster impacts and variables.10 National of partner organisations and incorporate displacement DesInventar databases were first estab- lessons learned from previous years. As explained in annex A1, we used lished in Latin America in the late 1990s Feedback on our work and suggestions direct proxies for displacement in the to satisfy a need for high quality local- for the future are always very welcome. creation of our 2008 to 2014 dataset, in- level information with which to better un- cluding figures for evacuees, people ren- derstand patterns across geographical, dered homeless or those whose homes political and economic areas. were severely damaged or destroyed, and Many contain highly detailed infor- those living in temporary shelters. Com- mation across a wide range of catego- A.2 parable and consistently recorded proxies ries, from damage to health facilities to are not, however, readily available at the secondary and downstream economic Modelling historical global level for the 1970 to 2014 period. losses. Given, however, that each country displacement Given this limitation, our historical administers its own database, there are model augments such information that slight variations in structure and more sig- IDMC’s historical displacement model is available with data on indirect disaster nificant variations in data entry, coverage incorporates 45 years of data from 1970 to loss variables such as the number of peo- and thresholds that determine whether or 2014. In tandem with our hand-screened ple affected and the number of people not an event is included. dataset covering 2008 to 2014, it pro- killed. This kind of data is among the most In both the EM-DAT and national data- vides a longer timeframe within which to commonly and accurately collected for bases, mortality data is of better quality examine disaster-related displacement disasters over the long term. That said, than that on people affected or rendered trend. Now in its second year, we have data on homes destroyed, though less homeless. Quality also varies from haz- run several iterations using improved and complete, tends to be a particularly good ard to hazard. Homelessness data, for expanded data, and together with ongo- indicator of the number of people dis- example, tends to be most accurately rep- ing refinements to our calculation meth- placed in earthquake scenarios, and so resented for earthquakes, and least well- odology, each one has reduced sources is weighted more heavily for this hazard tracked for smaller floods. Disasters trig- of uncertainty and expanded the model’s type in the regression model coefficients. gered by storms and major floods have descriptive capacities.3 At first glance, disaster mortality might both the highest number of entries and We undertake our trend-based analy- seem a strange proxy for displacement, largest totals for people killed, affected sis with a number of important caveats in but statistical analysis shows that for cer- and left homeless. Given the larger sam- mind, most of which relate to the quality tain hazards, such as floods, there is a ple size, subsequent results and analyses and availability of the global data on which correlation between the number of people for such events are generally more robust. the model is based. killed and the number displaced. At the Disasters linked to frequently occur- Firstly, the sample sizes are too small same time, the number of people affected ring and localised hazards such as land- to make inferences about individual coun- by disasters has risen significantly since slides and small seasonal floods receive tries. Trends based on region, continent or 1970, but the data shows that mortality substantially less attention because of other means of grouping countries with across all types of hazards increased only the difficulties in collecting data on so similar characteristics together are more slightly. This points to improvements in many events, and differences in meth- likely to produce accurate and meaningful preparedness, early warning systems and odology. EM-DAT’s threshold for includ- results. This applies particularly to small other life-saving measures. Assuming the ing an event is 10 deaths or 100 people territories and populations and those trend continues, disaster mortality will be- affected, which means that the data will relatively unexposed to hazards, both of come a weaker proxy for displacement. be biased towards events in which one or which may only be recorded a few times We have already removed it from calibra- both metrics are met, and against those if at all, either in the seven-year dataset tion in cases where it is a poor fit for the during which just homes are damaged or of our disaster displacement database, or regression model. livelihoods disrupted. Similar issues and the 45-year dataset of historical model. We source additional global data from variability occur across hazards and loss Secondly, some hazards occur regu- the EM-DAT international disaster loss da- metrics as well as databases. larly and with relative predictability, some- tabase,4 national disaster loss databases, 5 times several times a year in a particular and datasets from the World Bank,6 the country or region, but others are far less UN,7 Index for Risk Management and oth- frequent. Those that only occur once er demographic sources.8 9 EM-DAT is the every 100, 500 or 1,000 years are unlikely most thorough and widely cited source of

84 Global Estimates 2015 Modelling and calibration using and generic values for hazard types with al relationships between underlying risk the 2008 to 2014 dataset limited samples. This meant the impacts drivers and displacement further, using Our historical model is calibrated using of different hazards were weighted more the increased analytical capacities of both our high-quality 2008 to 2014 dataset, and realistically. The third sought to address datasets. This will include comparison with improvements to the calibration process some of the challenges that arose in the demographic, social, economic, land-use, have refined the modelling substantially. second by using values relative to popu- governance and other variables. Ongoing This year’s calibration used a sample size lation and increasing the sample size of improvements in data management, re- of more than 800 paired entries, almost disasters. view tracking and the archiving of source double the number used in 2014. The 2008 Given the limited sample sizes, the un- documents will continue to improve the to 2014 and historical datasets also now derlying distribution of the proxy variables depth and breadth of our datasets. have compatible structures, extending over the 1970 to 2014 period was much analytical capacities and enabling direct larger than in the 2008 to 2014 dataset comparisons between them. used for calibration. As a result, some It is important to note that the overlap- entries appear as extreme outliers and ping years between the datasets provide skew the results. Several approaches A.3 only a limited sample, which may not be were taken to deal with the most extreme, representative of the relationship be- including scaling values to mortality, af- Building understanding tween disaster impacts and displacement fected, homeless and displaced figures and evidence of protracted over the whole 1970 to 2014 period. In con- expressed per million inhabitants. trast to the event-based data of the 2008 In the first half of 2015, we ran three displacement following to 2014 dataset, annual disaster loss data more iterations, eventually arriving at a disasters for the historical model is compiled by to- composite model. For hazard types with tal per hazard type and country. This is to large sample sizes, such as floods and IDMC conducted a scoping exercise to keep the size of the dataset manageable earthquakes, the regressions were run shed light on an important global blinds- and, more importantly, to enable matching with data corresponding to each type pot in knowledge about displacement by year, hazard and country between the of hazard. For hazard types with limited associated with disasters - people living two datasets. We are addressing these data, such as landslides, values were ob- in long-lasting and protracted situations. limitations by continuing to research ad- tained from a generic regression analysis It had two objectives: to summarise cur- ditional years and past events. covering all the hazard types we identify rent knowledge about long-lasting and The calibration model finds the best fit Calibration was done using coefficients protracted displacement associated with between the disaster loss figures and our obtained from regression analyses be- disasters and to compile evidence of on- annual displacement estimates to pro- tween our annual displacement totals by going examples of such situations. duce a mean average trend for the period. country and year for 2008 to 2014, and We used a range of methods to The modelled annual figures are subject equivalent annual mortality, affected and achieve our aims. We conducted a lit- to high levels of variance and should not homeless data by country from EM-DAT. erature review of peer-reviewed journal be considered representative of actual articles and news stories from media displacement for those years. outlets, and interviews with experts and This is because calibration is limited to Next steps practitioners, including IOM field office data points between 2008 and 2014, while We have identified several potential staff. A summary of our findings is pre- earlier years contain data points beyond areas of improvement for the next itera- sented in section five of this year’s report, those the model considers in achieving tion of both the 2008 to 2014 and mod- and the ongoing cases we identified are its best fit. The model also seeks only to elled historical datasets. We envisage listed in annex C. represent average annual mean displace- expanding the event-by-event coverage The issue is not addressed in our ment, meaning that individual data points in the 2008 to 2014 dataset to also include global estimates for new displacement, fit the trend as a whole. Extremes largely displacements of more than three mil- nor is it monitored at the international cancel each other out in the trendline. lion people over recent decades, and to level, while people in such situations are We ran three iterations in 2014. The focus on hazard types for which sample likely to be among the most vulnerable first, based on EM-DAT data, applied a sizes are highly limited. This will help to of the millions forced to flee their homes naive multiplier across all hazard types. increase the robustness of the calibration each year. At the same time, the very ex- This had the benefit of providing a rough algorithm. istence of the phenomenon is also called estimate without any significant variance Event-by-event matching between the into question by the common assumption issues, but it failed to produce a good 2008 to 2014 and the historical data for a that displacement following disasters, and fit in terms of underlying hazard, country proportion of the largest entries will also particularly rapid-onset events, is short- and annual data when compared with the help to address the way in which very term and “temporary”, and that return events in our 2008 to 2014 dataset. large events skew the model for specific home is the end of the story. We intend The second used regression coeffi- countries. to continue building up and analysing the cients for each hazard where possible, We also intend to investigate the caus- evidence as part of our global monitoring.

Annexes 85 Scope and limitations types of source. The first was conceptual information published in newspapers and Defining a long-lasting and protracted and thematic, providing overall analyses on news websites, radio and television situation, in which people continue to be or syntheses of key issues. The second programmes and blogs. displaced for longer than is normal or ex- was case specific, focusing on particular To identify and aggregate sources pected and where little or no progress situations of long-lasting and protracted across databases, websites and search is being made towards achieving a du- displacement. The two categories are engines, we used a variety of combina- rable solution, is highly context specific not mutually exclusive, however. Many tions of keywords and phrases associated and dependent on the perspective from sources that focus on a specific exam- with disasters and protracted displace- which this is considered, including that ple of protracted displacement also have ment: of displaced people themselves. Given implications for conceptual framing and Disaster search terms the international audience for this report, vice versa. we have interpreted information based The thematic category included a Disaster on the timeframes commonly applied by number of overarching issues in the after- Natural hazard governments and donor organisations for math of disasters: the pursuit of durable Climate disaster relief and early recovery, and at solutions; overcoming the obstacles that Specific hazards - floods, earth- the same time allowed the cases high- lead to protracted displacement; shelter quakes, volcanic eruptions, land- lighted to question their appropriateness. and land tenure; informal settlers and the slides, storms, typhoons, cyclones, Therefore, we focused on situations that challenges of recovery in urban areas; hurricanes, mudflows, drought … have lasted for at least a year, beyond populations awaiting relocation or reset- Protracted displacement terms the timeframe commonly assumed emer- tlement within the country; comparisons gency funding and response planning. of displacement dynamics in conflict and One, two, five, ten years on Emphasis was also placed on situa- disaster situations; ethnographic analyses Remain displaced, homeless, tions reported as ongoing in 2014/2015, of disaster recovery; and psychological sheltered the aim being to highlight cases of im- studies of long-term impacts. Still displaced, homeless, sheltered mediate relevance and in need of atten- Sources were aggregated from da- Remain in limbo tion, rather than those of more historical tabases of articles published in peer- Stalled durable solutions interest in terms of establishing lessons reviewed academic and professional No solution near, in sight learned. journals, including Disasters, Forced Await resettlement Neglect We looked for and found examples of Migration Review, the Oxford Monitor long-lasting and protracted displacement of Forced Displacement, the Journal of associated with slow-onset as well as Refugee Studies, Refugee Survey Quar- In all, we aggregated and analysed 118 rapid-onset hazards and disasters. Ulti- terly and International Migration Review. thematic and 328 case-specific sources. mately, to be in line with the scope of this We also consulted research from think report, we chose to include only those for tanks and other institutions that publish Semi-structured thematic interviews which the hazard event could be clearly research online, including the Brookings We identified potential key informants attributed as a direct factor driving dis- Institution-LSE Project on Internal Dis- by reviewing our list of academic and op- placement –that caused by the ongoing placement, the Oxford Refugee Studies erational contacts from the humanitarian, Sidoarjo mudflow in Indonesia– in our list. Centre, The Overseas Development In- development and human rights sectors. The mudflow and its consequences are stitute, IFRC and the UK government’s Interviewees were selected based on the also the subject of a spotlight in section Foresight project. likelihood of their having direct knowl- five of the report. Other research we have Sources on specific cases were first edge of situations, their ability to advise or carried out has shown that displacement identified from our country overview facilitate access to information, and their associated with drought other slow-onset reports. We then aggregated them via conceptual work or expertise on the topic. hazards and processes can be long-last- searches on humanitarian information They were also invited to suggest other ing, and we will continue to investigate services such as ReliefWeb and Inte- potential contacts in a process known as and analyse displacement related to such grated Regional Information Networks snowball sampling. situations also. (IRIN). We also identified sources from The interviews used a predetermined It should also be noted that, with a few the websites of international agencies set of questions to standardise discus- exceptions, our research relied on docu- such as IOM, the camp coordination and sions, while remaining flexible enough to ments published in English. As a result, management, protection and shelter clus- allow for deeper consideration of topics in the cases listed in annex C are biased ters, IFRC and OCHA; and the websites of which the interviewees were expert. The towards examples from English-speaking international NGOs such as Oxfam, Care, questions began by gathering information countries or with a strong international Save the Children, the Solutions Alliance on their background to establish their per- presence at the time of reporting. and Displacement Solutions. In addition, spective or theoretical approach. We then we did broader searches for media re- asked how they would conceptualise pro- Literature review ports on World News Connection, Google tracted displacement, and whether there The literature review focused on two News and Google Search. These yielded were gaps in knowledge and reporting.

86 Global Estimates 2015 We also asked each interviewee to think of specific cases to flag for fur- ther research and potential addition to our database. The interviews concluded with questions about additional sources to supplement the literature review and suggestions of other potential contacts. We conducted 21 interviews with ex- perts at academic and research institu- tions, and practitioners in the fields of humanitarian disaster response, protec- tion, human rights and development. We interviewed six key informants from UN agencies and other international organi- sations, six from university-affiliated re- search institutes, four from international NGOs, three from the intergovernmental Nansen Initiative and two from think tanks (see acknowledgements at the front of this report). We also targeted 11 IOM country offices based on references to protracted displace- ment identified in their publications, includ- ing Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Madagascar, Micronesia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines and Sri Lanka. Ten of the 11 offices knew of current cases in their countries. Some evidence was more formally documented through the displacement tracking matrix (DTM) and official publications, while other evidence was based on personal observa- tions and common knowledge, and was more anecdotal in nature. We also reached out to a selection of in-country humanitar- ian protection clusters and received addi- tional information from Haiti, Tonga, Solo- mon Islands, and Colombia.

Logging ongoing cases The literature review and interviews yielded 66 cases of displacement asso- ciated with disasters that had lasted for longer than one year. We then filtered the sample looking for examples that were still ongoing in 2014/2015. This narrowed it down to 34 cases, which are detailed in annex C. We have added these cases to our da- tabase, along with others which have less clearly defined start dates, and/or which we were unable to establish as ongoing. Together with further qualitative research on the dynamic nature of protracted situa- tions, they will provide a starting point for our monitoring and analysis of this type of situation.

Annexes 87 ANNEX B Largest displacement events of 2014

Total Displaced per Ran- Country Hazard Affected areas Figure Month displaced million inhabi- king source(s)* people** tants***

1 Philip- Typhoon Ram- Manila and Southern Luzon Govt: NDR- July 2,994,100 29,911 pines masun (local island, Bicol region and Eastern RMC name Glenda) Visayas

2 Philip- Typhoon Landfall in Dolores, Eastern Govt: NDR- Decem- 1,823,200 18,214 pines Hagupit (local Samar; other locations: Mas- RMC ber name Ruby) bate, Sibuyan island, Romblon, Tablas island and Oriental Mindoro in Eastern Samar

3 India Flood Odisha state; Jajpur, Cuttack, International July 1,073,700 847 Sambalpur, Bhadrak and Keon- NGO: Oxfam jhar districts

4 Chile Iquique earth- North Pacific coastline Govt: Na- April 972,500 54,715 quake and tional Direc- tsunami tor of ONEMI

5 India Riverine flood Jammu and Kashmir; worst af- Govt: State October 812,000 640 fected districts were Srinagar, authorities Anantnag, Baramulla, Pulwama, Ganderbal, Kulgam, Budgam, Rajouri, Poonch and Reasi

6 Pakistan Riverine flood Azad Kashmir, Punjab, Gilgit- OCHA, Septem- 740,150 3,997 Baltistan, Sindh, PKP and NDMA ber Balochistan

7 India Cyclone Hud- Coastal districts of Andhra IAG/Sphere October 639,300 504 hud Pradesh state - Visakhapat- India; Advi- nam, Vizianagaram and East sor to the Godavari; Odisha state - Ga- Andhra japati, Koraput, Makangiri and Pradesh Rayagadathe worst affected of government eight districts and Odisha chief min- ister

8 China Typhoon Ram- Hainan province, Guangdong IFRC July 628,000 450 masun province and Guangxi Zhung autonomous region, Yunnan province; provinces in southern China, Guizhou province

9 Japan Typhoon Ha- Mie prefecture JMA August 570,000 4,488 long

88 Global Estimates 2015 Total Displaced per Ran- Country Hazard Affected areas Figure Month displaced million inhabi- king source(s)* people** tants***

10 Bangla- Flood Nilphamari, Lalmonirhat, Govt August 542,000 3,419 desh Kurigram, Rangpur, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Sirajganj, Sunamjong and Sylhet districts: Bolha in the south

11 China Storm Provinces of Guangdong, Unspecified May 447,000 320 Guizhou, Hunan and Jiangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan, Fujian and Guangxi

12 China Flood Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Hubei, Govt: Min- July 403,000 289 Sichuan, Yunnan and Anhui istry of Civil provinces, and Chongqing Affairs municipality

13 Philip- Tropical storm Northern Mindanao, Davao Govt: NDR- January 400,000 3,996 pines Lingling (local region, Caraga, ARMM and RMC name Agaton) SOCCSKSARGEN

14 India Flood Assam state - Goalpara, Govt: As- Septem- 367,000 289 Kamrup and Boko districts; sam State ber Meghalaya state - Tura and Disaster Garo Hills districts Management Authority

15 China Flood Nine southern provinces includ- Govt (Media: June 337,000 241 ing Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Xinhua) Sichuan and Fujian

16 China Typhoon Liaoning, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Govt: Min- July 289,000 207 Matmo Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shan- istry of Civil dong and Guangdong prov- Affairs inces

17 China Typhoon Guangdong, Hainan and Govt: Min- Septem- 252,000 180 Kalmaegi Guangxi provinces istry of Civil ber Affairs

18 Malaysia Flood Kelantan (worst hit), Johor, Govt: Un- Decem- 247,100 8,185 Pahang, Perak and Terengganu specified ber states

19 China Flood Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan, Govt: June 239,000 171 Guangxi, Hunan, Guangdong National and Zhijiang provinces Commission for Disaster Reduction

20 China Ludian earth- Ludian county of Zhaotong city Govt: Min- August 236,900 169 quake in Yunnan province istry of Civil Affairs

21 Philip- Tropical storm Northern tip of Cagayan Govt: NDR- Septem- 206,400 2,061 pines Fung-Wong province on Luzon island; Metro RMC ber (local name Manila and Bulacan and Rizal Mario) provinces

Annexes 89 Total Displaced per Ran- Country Hazard Affected areas Figure Month displaced million inhabi- king source(s)* people** tants***

22 Indone- Flood Bekasi, Cianjur, Subang, Govt: BNPB January 196,700 778 sia Karawang, West Bandung and Indramayu districts in West Java province

23 Bolivia Flood Beni department worst affect- IOM January 190,000 17,514 ed; floods across the country

24 Indone- Seasonal flood Batang, Pekalongan City, Pati, Govt: BNPB January 165,900 656 sia Jepara, Kudus, Pemalang, De- mak, Cilacap, Semarang City, Kebumen, Purbalingga, Kendal, Banjarnegara, Brebes, Klaten, Purworejo districts in Central Java province

25 India Flood Assam state - Barpeta, Bon- Govt: As- August 163,000 128 gaigaon, Dhemaji, Dibrugarh, sam State Jorhat, Lakhimpur, Morigaon, Disaster Kamrup, Nagaon, Nalbari, Management Tinsukia, Sivasagar, Sonitpur, Authority Golaghat, Udalguri and Goal- para districts

26 Sudan Rainy season Khartoum, Kassala, Gezira, IFRC: Su- August 159,000 4,102 flood Northern, Sennar, North Kor- danese Red dufan, South Kordofan, River Crescent Nile, West Darfur and White Nile states

27 China Cyclone Fung Zhejiang province and Shang- Govt: Un- Septem- 158,000 113 Wong hai specified ber

28 Philip- Tropical storm Central and southern provinces Govt: NDR- Decem- 155,700 1,555 pines Jangmi (local RMC ber name Seniang)

29 India Flood Bihar state Govt: August 130,000 102 Disaster management authorities

30 China Flood Wuxi County in Chongqing Govt: Min- August 121,700 87 province, Sichuan and Guizhou istry of Civil provinces Affairs

31 Sri Monsoon flood North and north-east central UN, DMC, Decem- 120,000 5,595 Lanka regions OCHA ber

32 India Flood Nalanda (worst affected), Bihar August 116,100 91 Saharsa, Supaul, West Cham- Inter-agency paran, Madhubani, Darbhanga, Group Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Patna, Sheohar, Araria, Sheikhpura, Khagaria and Gopalganj dis- tricts in Bihar state

90 Global Estimates 2015 * Text in parentheses indicates the original source cited by the publisher of the information. Only the source(s) selected for the final event estimate are shown. The estimate for most events, especially those of larger scale, drew on multiple sources that were cross-checked before selecting the one that appeared to be the most comprehensive and reliable figure for the total incidence of displacement. ** Figures rounded to the nearest 100 *** Calculated as total persons displaced divided by national population and multiplied by one million.

Acronyms BNPB Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana/National Disaster Management Authority DMC Disaster Management Centre IAG Inter-Agency Group IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IOM International Organisation for Migration JMA Japanese Meteorological Agency NDMA National Disaster Management Authority NDRRMC National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council OCHA UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UN United Nations ARMM Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao SOCCSKSARGEN South Cotabato, Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani and General Santos City ONEMI National Emergency Management Office

Annexes 91 - - - ANNEX C Protracted cases ongoing in 2014/2015 Comment: Situation Return to some radiation contaminated and coastal areas not permitted Political controversy related to nuclear plants, mistrust govern of ment and private sector assessments safe areas of Lengthy and expensive community relocation: lack suitable of land, shortage construction of workers and materials Health and social impacts: stress, trauma; deaths during displace ment; family and community separation and breakdown Mix situations of with different prospects for IDPs. Habitable land for relocation unavailable or prohibitively expensive; limited capacity local of authorities leading to delays in construc tion; ongoing disaster risk (repeated typhoons/floods); pre-disaster landlessness and poverty Ongoing violence and armed conflict in Mindanao prevents return to some areas Discrimination against tenants and landless in shelter assistance Comment: Figures and sources Source: Japanese Reconstruction Agency, March 2015 . IDPs displaced technologicalby hazard as well as earthquake and tsunami. Source: UNHCR Philippines, March 2015 . Number IDPs of living in government-established bunkhouses, transitional shelters or tent cities. No. of people displaced still 2014/2015 in 000 , 230 At leastAt 140 , 000 - Duration of displace ment* 4 yrs 2 yrs, 3 mths - Total no. of no. Total dis people placed** 000492 , 1 , 931 , 970 Start date Mar 2011 Dec 2012 - - Disaster ō hoku T earth quake/ tsu nami and nuclear accident Typhoon Bopha/ Pablo - Country Japan Philip pines

92 Global Estimates 2015 - - - - Comment: Situation Chronic poverty, state fragility and disaster risk Extensive destruction Invisibility IDPs of among urban poor; Complex, informal land tenure; Discrimination against tenants and informal settlers; Forced evictions and camp closures Weak linkages between humanitarian assistance and long-term development Land use and zoning barriers; lack transparency of and access to information Lack long-term of assistance based on assumption that displace ment is short-term and temporary Forced evictions some of low-income families in mobile home com munities Discrimination in share initial of recovery funds distributed to ten ants and homeowners; discrimination against African American and Latino homeowners seeking assistance to rebuild; discrimina tion in access to information for people with limited proficiency in English Repeated exposure to hazards and flood displacement Lack land; of limited technical proficiency for reconstruction; high cost materials of Discrimination towards those with limited literacy; discrimination in access for female heads household of Exposure to additional hazards (recurrent limited floods); desirable land available in relocation sites; delays in relocation process Continued repeat displacement caused recurrent by floods Discrimination in access to services such as schools and hospitals - - - Comment: Figures and sources Source: IOM's displacement tracking matrix March (DTM), 2015 . IDPs still living in registered camps only. Num ber people of still displaced outside camps is unknown. Source: Fair Share Housing, Latino Action Network, and New Jersey NAACP report, February 2015 . Based on 14 , 650 families in NJ who have applied, are eligible and are awaiting government financial housing support. An underestimate as only includes homeowners and not renters. Does not include those still in need hous of ing support but who did not apply. Source: Pakistan shelter cluster, June 2014 . Number beneficiaries of tran of sitional shelters in 2014 . Source: IOM Field Office interview, April 2015 . Number IDPs of awaiting plotsland of for relocation. Same IDPs finally allocated sites in December 2014 . No. of people displaced still 2014/2015 in At leastAt 700 64 , At leastAt ,39 200 000, 31 26000, - Duration of displace ment* 5 yrs, 2 mths 2 yrs, 4 mths yr, 9 mths1 yr, yr, 3 mths1 yr, - Total no. of no. Total dis people placed** Up to 2 ,300 , 000 1 ,( 500 ,000 in camps as July of ) 2010 775761, ( 430 , 675 in New Jersey) 1 , 856 , 570 130 , 000 Start date Jan 2010 Oct 2012 Sept 2012 Jan 2013 - Disaster Earth quake Hurricane Sandy Monsoon Monsoon floods Floods - Country Haiti United States Pakistan Mozam bique

Annexes 93 - - Comment: Situation Limited land; limited solutions because multi-hazard of environ ment; ongoing conflict No return possible to areas ongoing of conflict Disputes over land ownership; misuse humanitarian of aid; lack of compensation; insecure livelihoods and lack irrigation of schemes Land remains flooded following dam construction; return impos sible IDPs forcibly relocated twice Reported human rights violations against IDPs include violent harrassment and coercion to accept smaller land parcels than promised through restriction access of to basic assistance Lack political of will; IDPs dispersed among urban poor who also need housing solutions; lack personal of documentation required to relocate No return possible because the of scale destruction of Some IDPs forcibly evicted in early 2000 s Discrimination in selection beneficiaries of based on Soviet or Armenian passports Lack compensation; of lack political of will; widespread destruction Particularly vulnerable groups include children who still attend classes in temporary schools, and older people who remain in the city centre but whose livelihoods are severely restricted in “ghost town” - - - - - Comment: Figures and sources Source: Government Nigeria, of Janu ary 2014. 165 , 000 people displaced by both floods and conflict in IDP camps, which can not be disaggregated. Therefore, estimate used for ongo ing displacement matches the total initially displaced floods. by Source: Human Rights Watch, Febru ary 2015 . Number displaced of people forcibly relocated to small plots of land and unable to access livelihoods or achieve durable solutions. Source: IDMC correspondence with local NGO Urban Foundation, May 2015 . Number displaced of households still on the municipal waiting lists for housing, multiplied average by house hold size. Some are tenants or in other temporary housing. majority Vast living in domiks or converted shipping containers. Source: La Stampa Chronache, April 2015 . Number people of living in tem porary or unsafe/insecure houses. No. of people displaced still 2014/2015 in Up to 16 , 500 20 , 000 18 , 500 16000, - Duration of displace ment* yr, 6 mths1 yr, 1 yr 26 5 yr, mths 6 yrs - Total no. of no. Total dis people placed** 000 , 23 20 , 000 000, 500 70 , 000 Start date Jul 2012 Feb 2014 Dec 1988 Apr 2009 - - Disaster Floods Tokwe- Mukorsi floods Earth quake L'Aquila L'Aquila earth quake - Country Nigeria Zimba bwe Armenia Italy

94 Global Estimates 2015 - Comment: Situation Conflict with host communities; threat physical of violence; lack fundsof and political will; alleged corruption; bureaucratic delays; poor local technical capacity; difficulties in acquiring land No return possible because ongoing of volcanic activity; some IDPs, were however, reportedly forced to return the by government Population in process relocation; of prohibitive costs; feasiblity studies underway Dispersed informal settlers among urban poor; lack livelihood of options near relocation sites; identification and aquisition plots of landof for relocation No return possible for those whose previous homes are in no-build zones Exposure to additional hazards leads to secondary displacement for some High exposure to hazards including cyclones, floods and saline in trusion causes repeated displacement and disruption to livelihoods Some IDPs evicted from embankments Discrimination in access to relief for those without identity cards for current area residence, of and for those different of political parties High costs relocation; of lack land of available Delays in compensation; controversy over cause hazard of and responsibility for response; lack political of will No return possible because mudflow is ongoing IDPs awaiting compensation reluctant to get identity cards for new residence, and without them face discrimination in voting and healthcare access - Comment: Figures and sources Source: Chairman the of Manam island council chiefs of and IDMC October 2014 field visit. Chairman estimates15 " ,000 to 16 ,000 " IDPs. The original figure is likely an underesti mate, and population growth has led to a considerable increase in the care centre population. Source: Government Philippines, of February 2015 . IDPs who remain in bunkhouses. Likely an underestimate as the overwhelming majority IDPs of live in host family arrangements or in makeshift shelters on pre-typhoon lands, the land family of members, or in other situations outside formal of or informal displacement sites. Source: Nowabenki Gonomukhi Foundation (NGF) and Association for Climate Refugees (ACR), May 2015 . Number people of in Polder 32 Dacopeof Upazila only. IDPs who have lost their original land, and live in makeshift shelters on embankments. The figure is clearly an underestimate as it refers to a only one region. Source: Jakarta Post and IDMC visit in May 2015 number. Total displaced over time and who have not returned. It is unclear how many are still to achieve durable solutions, but most have not been properly compensated. No. of people displaced still 2014/2015 in 15 , 000 13 , 300 13100, 13 , 000 - Duration of displace ment* 10 yrs 1 yrs, 3 mths 6 yrs 9 yrs - Total no. of no. Total dis people placed** 11 ,000 095280 , 4 , 842000, 15 , 000 Start date Oct 2004 Nov 2013 May 2009 May 2006 Disaster Manam volcano Typhoon Haiyan/ Yolanda Cyclone Aila Sidoarjo mudflow - - Country Papua New Guinea Philip pines Bangla desh Indonesia

Annexes 95 - Comment: Situation Remote location; delays in obtaining permits for land; ongoing ex posureto hazards and delays in reconstruction during rainy season; lack livelihood of opportunities in relocation sites No return possible because landslide; of some IDPs reluctant to join relocation programme Awaiting relocation government by Delays in reconstruction process; limited technical capacity; lack landof Repeated displacement for some already displaced earlier by earthquake Delays in reconstruction process; limited resources available; high cost rebuilding of Delays in reconstruction process; high cost involved Lack land; of government restrictions in forest areas; IDPs invisible among indigenous Sengewar population Forced evictions cause onward displacement No return possible - - - - - Comment: Figures and sources Source: Jakarta Post (citing the West Sumatra Office the of Manpower and Transmigration Ministry), March 2015 . 1 , 900 families multiplied aver by age household size. IDPs living with relatives or in shelters, and awaiting relocation government. by Source: Haiti shelter cluster, May 2014 . Number beneficiaries of transitional of shelters as May of 2014 , but there are more people in need housing of solutions. Source: Cuba shelter cluster, January 2014 . Number beneficiaries of tran of sitional shelters as January of 2014 , but there are more people in need of housing solutions. Source: Dominican Republic shelter cluster, April 2014 . Number benefi of ciaries transitional of shelters as of April 2014, but there are more people in need housing of solutions. Source: Embobut Force, Task Febru ary 2014 . Number IDPs of who took refuge in the forest alongside Senge war indigenous populations, and were forcibly evicted to clear land. Current whereabouts uncertain. No. of people displaced still 2014/2015 in 100 9 , At leastAt 8 , 500 At least,At 950 7 At leastAt 000 5 , Up to 4, 200 - Duration of displace ment* 5 yrs, 6 mths yr, 7 mths1 yr, yr, 3 mths1 yr, yr, 6 mths1 yr, At leastAt 4 yrs - Total no. of no. Total dis people placed** 500 , 675 000 , 32 230 , 343 19 , 000 Unknown Start date Sept 2009 Oct 2012 Oct 2012 Oct 2012 2010 - Disaster Sumatra earth quake Hurricane Sandy Hurricane Sandy Hurricane Sandy Landslide - Country Indonesia Haiti Cuba Do minican Republic Kenya

96 Global Estimates 2015 - Comment: Situation Lack political of will; delays caused government by bureaucracy No return possible because ongoing of volcanic activity; IDPs awaiting relocation and development basic of infrastructure in a protected forest site identified the by government Delays in reconstruction process; scarity available of land; difficulty in identifying site for relocation Return considered highly unsafe because further of disaster risk Population in process relocation of Limited land available; high cost land; of ambiguity over ownership and responsibility; limited political will; limited funding directed towards rebuilding highway No return possible to areas submerged Attabad by lake Some IDPs awaiting relocation Discrimination against IDPs and protesters Lack available of land; lack political of will; IDPs invisible among urban poor Discrimination against informal urban settlers excluded from gov ernment’s post-disaster housing programmes - - - - Comment: Figures and sources Source: Jakarta Post (citing the Mount Sinabung Disaster Mitigation Taskforce the of National Agency for Disaster Management Janu (BNPB)), ary 2015 and IDMC correspondence with local contacts, May 2015 . Number peopleof still in evacuation shelters, staying with host families or in places worshipof occupying rented homes. Source: Displacement Solutions and Adaptation Fund, May 2015 . Num ber people of awaiting relocation, currently living in temporary acco modation dispersed around nearby municipalities. Source: Correspondence with IOM Pakistan and contacts at local NGOs, April 2015 . Number IDPs of living in temporary shelters or with their relatives in the vicinity Aliabad, of Hyderabad, Karimabad and Gulmith villages. Source: IDMC, December 2014 . Infor mal settlers who expected to become owners their of plot land of the by end 2014 of , 15 years after their inital displacement. No. of people displaced still 2014/2015 in 500 3 , 900 2 , 900 2 , 700 2 , - Duration of displace ment* yr, 6 mths1 yr, 4 yrs, 6 mths 5 yrs, 3 mths 15 yrs,4 mths - Total no. of no. Total dis people placed** 713 , 17 900 2 , 600 3 , 000 , 250 Start date Nov 2013 Dec 2010 Jan 2010 Aug 1999 - - Disaster Mount Sinabung volcano Gram alote landslide Hunza Valley landslides and flood Marmara earth quake Country Indonesia Colombia Pakistan Turkey

Annexes 97 - - Comment: Situation Political conflict between First Nation people, private actors and federal and local government Little public support Return not a safe or sustainable option; awaiting relocation; plans for rebuilding at a standstill Some returns to condemned homes and contaminated reserves due to harsh conditions in city Discrimination against indigenous communities Families weakened separation, by rise in substance abuse, and suicide Lack political of will; lack funds; of many other displacement situa tions take centre stage, hampering response Safe return not possible because risk of further of volcanic activity Awaiting relocation Lack funds; of difficulty in obtaining construction materials; IDPs invisible among urban poor Some still awaiting relocation Lack income of generation activities; lack land of Further floods cause onward displacement for some Lack funds; of lack available of land Safe return possible because damage of and risk further of vol canic activity Some now living abroad face discrimination and reduced rights in terms voting of and access to education - - Comment: Figures and sources Source: Films, Wookey May 2015 . Evacuees dispersed in hotels and temporary housing in Winnipeg and Manitoba. Source: IOM, December 2014 . Number peopleof who remain displaced three years after the eruption. Source: Shelter cluster, October 2014 . Number people of receiving recon struction assistance in 2014 . Source: Shelter cluster, October 2014 . Number IDPs of awaiting housing solutions, who recieved assistance in 2014 . Latest displacement figure re fers to a smaller geographical region than the initial estimate. Source: Government Montserrat, of January 2015 . Hundreds evacuees of living without indoor running water and toilets in Montserrat, in addition to thousands abroad in "exile" and who face numerous challenges including discrimination. No. of people displaced still 2014/2015 in 100 2 , 1 , 800 At leastAt 1, 250 1 , 050 Hundreds to thousands - Duration of displace ment* 4 yrs, 1 mth 3 yrs yr, 10 mths1 yr, 4 yrs, 5 mths 17 yrs, 7 mths - Total no. of no. Total dis people placed** 100 2 , Unknown 8 , 416 1 , 500 , 000 7 , 000 Start date Apr 2011 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 May 2010 Jun 1997 Disaster Manitoba floods Nabro volcano eruption Cyclone Evan Floods Volcanic eruption - Country Canada Ethiopia Fiji Colombia Montser rat (UK)

98 Global Estimates 2015 Comment: Situation Lack available of land; lack political of will Return not possible Population awaiting relocation Discrimination against indigenous populations Lack land; of lack political of will Population awaiting relocation Some IDPs want to stay in landslide zone to be near schools and livelihoods, despite government restrictions Unclear tenure and consent for building as owners are overseas; lack available of land; delays caused government by bureacracy Some IDPs in the process relocation of Lack available of land; delays in rebuilding process Mental health impacts High cost relocation; of lack sustainable of livelihood options; lack availableof land Ongoing disaster risk and repeated displacement Delays caused government by bureacracy; legal disputes High cost reconstruction of Some IDPs awaiting relocation ------Comment: Figures and sources Source: Globe and Mail (Canadian media), June 2014 . Number people of still in "government-supported tempo rary accomodation", in hotels or living with family and friends a year after the floods Source: Government Bolivia, of July 2014 . Number people of displaced and did not have permanent solutions until they were encouraged government by to move to appartments in city centre. Source: Radio New Zealand, March 2015 . Number IDPs of who remain dis placed and are waiting for their homes to be rebuilt. Source: NewsMail (Australian media), May 2014 . Most are living with host families or in temporary accomoda tions. Source: Multiple (unquantified dis placement). Number still displaced in 2014 or 2015 is unknown, but numer ous sources say some IDPs have not achieved durable solutions. Source: BizWest North Colorado newspaper, February 2015 . Of the tens thousands of who were initially displaced, have "some" still not re turned. The exact number those of still displaced is unknown.

No. of people displaced still 2014/2015 in 930 At leastAt 400 At leastAt 300 At leastAt 50 Some (Unknown) Some (Unknown) - Duration of displace ment* 1 yr 3 yrs, 5 mths yr, 2 mths1 yr, yr, 4 mths1 yr, At leastAt 6 yrs yr, 5 mths1 yr, - Total no. of no. Total dis people placed** 100 , 000 1 , 000 030 6 , 7 , 500 000 , 2 , 250 101 , 470 Start date Jun 2013 Feb 2011 Jan 2014 Jan 2013 May 2008 Sept 2013 - Disaster Alberta floods La Paz landslide Cyclone Ian Cyclone Oswald/ Bun daberg floods Cyclone Nargis Colorado floods Country Canada Bolivia Tonga Australia Myanmar United States * Duration of time from initial hazard impact date until latest report in 2014/2015 ** Source: IDMC data as of 1 June Under 2015. “Total displaced”, figures in brackets are location-specific, they i.e. reflect a proportion of the total number of people displaced.

Annexes 99 REFERENCES

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Immediately after the landslide, talisation in Fukushima, 21 April 2015, volunteers of the Ismaili Council had 153. Ishikawa E, Transition challenges in available at https://goo.gl/p6PBWp; helped these families dismantle their the recovery from the Great East Ja- Japan Reconstruction Agency, Chang- houses and move building material and pan earthquake (Japanese), 6 March es in the Number of Evacuees, 8 April belongings to safer ground before the 2015, Fukushima Global Communica- 2015 (Iwate and Miyagi), available at lake inundated their area. Sökefeld M, tion Programme working paper series http://goo.gl/viUq5u The Attabad landslide and the politics no.6, UNU-IAS, available at http://goo. gl/AqXv7X of disaster in Gojal, Gilgit-Baltistan, 139. Nittere News, Government decides 2012, p.189, available at http://goo.gl/ to speed up return of evacuated 154. Furukawa K, Tsunami damage follow- gVxt5b residents (Japanese), 12 June 2015, ing the Great East Japan earthquake: available at http://goo.gl/JZy3cQ 124. ibid, p.185 and 197; IDMC interview, the case of collective relocation (Japanese), 2012, available at http:// May 2015; Another 20,000 people 140. Japan Reconstruction Agency, goo.gl/Vhiu35 living downstream of the natural dam 2014-2015 resident survey results for were temporarily evacuated in 2010 municipalities affected by the nuclear 155. http://dl.ndl.go.jp/view/download/ because the government feared that

105 digidepo_8841940_po_076709. 172. ibid pdf?contentNo=1> Annex A 173. IDMC correspondence with Fair Share 156. Fukuda T, C u r r e n t s t a t u s a n d p e n d i n g Housing Centre lawyer David Rammler 1. IDMC, Global Estimates 2014: People is s u e s f o r g r o u p r e l o c a t i o n i n d i s a s t e r displaced by disasters, September m i t i g a t i o n (Japanese), 2014, available 174. ibid 2014, p.42, available at http://goo.gl/ at http://goo.gl/lI4K1f 175. Monmouth University polling institute, nbHmYL 157. Furukawa K, 2012, op cit. NJ Sandy panel: Recovery stuck in the 2. Colombia, Guatemala, Indonesia, sand, 28 October 2014, available at Myanmar, Pakistan, Tanzania, Timor- 158. Hasegawa R, May 2013, op cit. http://goo.gl/nZHrHP Leste, the UK and the US Dartmouth 159. Fukuda T, 2014, op cit.; Furukawa K, 176. Monmouth University polling institute, Flood Observatory (DFO), University 2012, op cit. NJ Sandy panel: Impacted residents’ of Colorado, http://floodobservatory. needs have not diminished in part year, colorado.edu/Archives/ 160. Japan Reconstruction Agency, Cur- 30 October 2014, p.4, available at 3. IDMC, Global Estimates 2014: People rent Status of Reconstruction and http://goo.gl/w7yEem Challenges, March 2015, available at displaced by disasters, September http://goo.gl/E3pZTu 177. Monmouth University polling institute, 2014, available at http://goo.gl/ NJ Sandy panel: Survivor mental BavNZP; IDMC, The risk of disaster- 161. Araki Y and Hokugo A, An analysis of health, 27 October 2014, available at induced displacement in South Asia, the relationship between the designa- http://goo.gl/kytfFL technical paper, April 2015, available tion of disaster risk zones, the loss of at http://goo.gl/ZOMWy3 lives and homes, and the amount of 178. Merdjanoff A, There’s no place like inhabitable land in areas devastated by home: Examining the emotional con- 4. CRED, EM-DAT international disaster the Great East Japan earthquake and sequences of Hurricane Katrina on the loss database, available at http://goo. tsunami, 2015, available at http://goo. displaced residents of New Orleans, gl/5N4IkV gl/DaNaD8 Social Science Research 42.5 (2013): 5. DesInventar databases are available pp.1,222–1,235 162. Ishikawa E, 6 March 2015, op cit. at http://goo.gl/aX9WCj, administered 179. Housing discrimination complaint filed by Colombia’s OSSO Corporation, and by Fair Share Housing Centre, Latino http://goo.gl/I0XLuk, administered by the UN US spotlight Action Network and the New Jersey NAACP 6. World Bank data includes geographic 163. Superstorm is the term widely used 180. Fair Share Housing Centre, February and income based divisions (http:// in the US media. Sandy began as a 2015, op cit. data.worldbank.org/about/country- tropical storm over the Caribbean, and-lending-groups) as well as World and developed into a hurricane before 181. Housing discrimination complaint filed Governance Indicators () making landfall in the US by Fair Share Housing Centre, Latino Action Network and the New Jersey 7. UN data includes geographic divisions 164. Fair Share Housing Centre, NAACP NAACP (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/meth- New Jersey and Latino Action Net- ods/m49/m49regin.htm), as well work, The State of Sandy Recovery, 182. Fair Share Housing Centre, February as Human Development Index (HDI) February 2015, available at http://goo. 2015, op cit. and Inequality-adjusted HDI informa- gl/KVk7gZ tion (http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/ 183. ibid 165. Shelter cluster, Haiti - 2012 - Hurri- human-development-index-hdi) cane Sandy: case study, undated, p.21, 8. INFORM, Index for Risk Management, available at http://goo.gl/qBlBdB administered by IASC and the Euro- 166. IDMC disaster displacement database, pean Commission, available at http:// estimate of 775,761 people as of 19 Section 6 goo.gl/VDYiZq May 2015, source: FEMA 9. Demographic data sources include 1. UN General Assembly, Synthesis sources used to compute national 167. New Jersey 101.5, Number Of Sandy- report of the Secretary-General on displaced families unknown, 5 Novem- household sizes: UN Statistics the post-2015 sustainable develop- Division 1995 Household size ber 2014, available at http://goo.gl/ ment agenda, A/69/700, 4 Decem- ZWnNVP; IDMC correspondence with data and 2013 Household size ber 2014. Available at http://goo.gl/ data (http://data.un.org/Data. Monmouth University polling institute, pqeVDF May 2015 aspx?d=POP&f=tableCode:50); 2012 2. UNISDR, Governments must recog- UN Population fertility rate informa- 168. Scattered evidence is also found in nise their stock of risk - MDG Report, tion (World Population Prospects: The other states. See Long Island News, 21 September 2012, available at 2012 Revision, United Nations Popula- Sandy victim still displaced more than http://goo.gl/14GzHM tion Division). 2 years later, 27 December 2014, available at http://goo.gl/q9jzRw 3. UN, Sendai Framework for Disas- 10. UNISDR, Annual report 2014, p7, avail- (registration required); TWC News, ter Risk Reduction 2015-2030, A/ able at http://goo.gl/x6ztxX A Queens Homecoming For Family CONF.224/CRP.1, paragraphs 28(d) Displaced By Sandy, 14 April 2015, and 33(h), available at http://goo.gl/ available at http://goo.gl/WXEXif QJ7z68 169. Associated Press, 6 months after 4. ibid, paragraph 18 Sandy, thousands homeless in NY, NJ, 27 April 2013, available at http://goo. 5. UN ESCAP, First Meeting of the gl/l40iWh Expert Group on Disaster-related Statistics in Asia and the Pacific, 170. Fair Share Housing Centre, February October 2014, available at zhttp://goo. 2015, op cit. gl/qpi2qp 171. Chicago Tribune, Jersey shore town 6. UN, Cancun Adaptation Framework, aims to get last 2 families displaced by 2010, FCCC/CP/2010/7/Add.1, para- Sandy back home, 5 February 2015, graph 14(f), available at http://goo.gl/ available at http://goo.gl/ZFSQlC zk4nfQ

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