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The Global Emerging Market in Transition .......................... 7407$$ $$FM 12-08-03 10:35:28 PS .......................... 7407$$ $$FM 12-08-03 10:35:28 PS THE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET IN TRANSITION Articles, Forecasts, and Studies 1973–2003 VLADIMIR L. KVINT FORDHAM UNIVERSITY PRESS New York .......................... 7407$$ $$FM 12-08-03 10:35:29 PS Copyright ᭧ 1999, 2004 by Fordham University Press All rights reserved. LC 98–54126 ISBN 0–8232–2348–5 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kvint, V. L. (Vladimir L’vovich) The global emerging market in transition : articles, forecasts. and studies.—2nd Ed. / Vladimir L. Kvint. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8232-2348–5 (alk. paper) 1. Russia (Federation)—Economic conditions—1991– 2. Investments, Foreign—Russia (Federation) 3. Economic history—1990– 4. Investments, Foreign. I. Title. HC340.12.K96 2004 332.6Ј73Ј0947—dc21 98-54126 CIP Second Edition 2004 Printed in the United States of America .......................... 7407$$ $$FM 12-08-03 10:35:29 PS To my mother, Lydia .......................... 7407$$ $$FM 12-08-03 10:35:29 PS .......................... 7407$$ $$FM 12-08-03 10:35:30 PS CONTENTS Preface xiii Becoming a Strategist: An Introduction to the Second Edition xv Introduction: The Future Begins Today 1 PART I UNDERSTANDING THE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET Classification of Emerging Markets 19 Incorporating Global Risk Management in the Strategic Decision Making Process 21 Emerging or Developed, What’s the Difference? 34 A Different Perspective on Emerging Markets 37 How Emerging Is Emerging? 45 Investing in the Emerging Markets 47 Gauging the Risk: Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging Market Countries 49 International Monetary Fund and the World Bank: The Advantages and Shortcomings 64 Don’t Give Up on Russia 68 The Russian Investment Dilemma 82 Russia Is Creating a System to Ensure Foreign Investment: $1.5 Billion Collateral Fund Established to Safeguard Foreign Ventures 97 The Nature of International Joint Ventures and Their Role in Global Business 101 Development of International Joint Ventures in Russia: Risks and Opportunities 130 ‘‘To Capital Markets, With Love,’’ Says Russia 147 Russia Is Losing the Battle for Foreign Investment 149 Despite Rough Waters, Market Economy Cruises Ahead: Opportunities Abound in NIS for Intrepid Investors 152 Kvint’s Forecast: Beyond the Political Fog, the Business Horizon Looks Clear 156 .......................... 7407$$ CNTS 12-08-03 10:35:32 PS viii contents PART II THE TOP EMERGING MARKETS OF EUROPE, CENTRAL ASIA, AND LATIN AMERICA We Forgive You 163 Europe’s Six Top Emerging Markets 166 Balkans: Emerging Market for International Business 178 Balkan Refugees in the European Union and the United States: Strategic Economic Solutions for Migration 182 Bulgaria Lags Behind Dangerously 190 Amnesty for Exported Capital Abroad 193 Bulgaria as the Last Klondike in Eastern Europe 195 Building Capitalism in Bulgaria by Decree 199 Ukraine: Living in Russia’s Shadow 202 Kazakstan: Rich in History and Resources 205 Brazil: Social Development and Telecommunications Market Analysis 212 Clim to the Top 227 PART III THE EMERGING MARKET OF RUSSIA Transition to a Free Market 231 Putin’s War on Three Fronts 233 Watch Out, Kleptocrats 235 The Last Days of Boris Yeltsin 238 Fixing Russia 245 Yearend—Bull Run in Russia, East Europe May Slow 247 Watching Russian Business Ventures 249 Russia’s Imbalance of Power 252 Election Results in the Russian Duma 255 Privileges of the Duma and Boris Yeltsin’s Power 259 Russia’s Crumbling Infrastructure 263 Russia’s Capitalist Institutions 266 Criminal Activity in Russia: Fact and Fiction 269 New Ruble Zone Doomed, Experts on Russia Say 276 .......................... 7407$$ CNTS 12-08-03 10:35:32 PS contents ix Russian Expert Addresses Community Group and Faculty: Professor, Consultant, and Author Vladimir Kvint on Campus 277 Russian Diamonds 279 A Healthy Realism for the Russians 282 Why Yeltsin Is Stymied 284 Gorby Takes the Fifth 285 Down the Rathole 287 Opportunity in a Shattered Land 290 Copying the Community 292 Political, Economic, and Legal Reform in the Soviet Union 293 The New Map of Eastern Europe 297 Siberia: A Warm Place for Investors 298 Gennadi Yaneyev, Overachiever 302 The Coup’s Aftermath: Will Gorbachev Be the Loser? 303 Dead Souls 304 United We Fall 309 Czar Gorbachev? 310 The Myth of Good Czar Gorbachev 311 Harsh Look at Soviet Prospects 314 The Soviet Union on the Way to the Market: One Step Forward, Then Two [Steps Backward] 317 Opportunities in Soviet Disintegration 318 Who’s in Charge Around Here? 320 Cold War on Oil Melting with Changes in Russia 325 Reshuffling the Soviet Deck 328 The Best Way to Help Gorbachev Is to Make Life Difficult for Him 329 Free the Ruble! 334 Lenin’s Legacy 339 Russia as Cinderella 340 ‘‘We Are Bogged Down’’ 346 Crisis and Recovery in Soviet Economy 349 Austrian Machines for the Soviet Union: In 1990 the Economic Crisis Will Worsen 353 .......................... 7407$$ CNTS 12-08-03 10:35:32 PS x contents Russia Charts New Island of Capitalism 356 Best Laid Plans 358 Doing Business in Moscow 359 Power to Perestroika 361 The Experiment of Gorbachev: The Free-Trade Zones for the Release of the Economy 366 Regionalization of the Russian Economy 369 Restoring the Romanovs 371 Russian History Shapes Today’s Business Leaders 376 Russian Pacific Coast: Exciting Opportunity 380 Go East, Young Man 384 Far East: A Look into the Future 390 Siberia: Experiment Without Counterpart 392 Siberia Says No to Castro 397 Eastern Siberia Could Become Another Saudi Arabia 398 The Arctic Comes Next 404 ‘‘The Polar Star Above Us’’ 410 The Role of the Budget in the Intensification of the Economy of the Autonomous Republic 420 Daghestan–Mangyshlak: The Effectiveness of Interregional Collaboration 430 Region and Industry: Modes of Interaction 437 Regionalism as the Key Trend in Scientific and Technological Progress 441 Key to the Region: Complex Programs 462 Privatization and Industrial Development in Russia 467 Privatization in Russia 469 Privatization in Russia Enters Phase Two 472 How to Access Business Information in Russia: Information and Democracy Go Hand-in-Hand 478 Telecommunications a Booming Business: Even Siberia Is Within Reach 482 Wreck the Information Flow and the Economy Collapses 487 Red Military Time Machine Works for Capitalism: Secret Doors Open onto Privatization of the Russian Military 489 .......................... 7407$$ CNTS 12-08-03 10:35:33 PS contents xi Internationalization of Russia’s Metallurgy Industry 493 Will Russia Be the Chief Oil Source of the Future? 497 Problems in the Development of the Nonferrous Metal Industry in Siberia 499 Role of Automation in Developing Nonferrous Metallurgy in Siberia 512 It Is Necessary to Increase Food Production in the Yenisey North 533 Food for Peace? Or for Civil War? 536 PART IV MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS AND SCIENTIFIC TECHNICAL PROGRESS Board of Director Motivation in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States 543 Confronting the Soviet Management Structure: Bureaucratic, but Workable 547 Moscow Learns the Language of Business 553 The Relationship Between Increases in Capital Investment and the Reduction in the Duration of the Implementation Phase 560 The Process of Forming a Regional Policy on Science and Technology 565 Unified Scientific and Technical Policy: What and Why 581 To Accurately Determine a Course of Action: An Economist Analyzes the Results of Krasnoyarsk’s Past Decade 587 The Intermediary Role of Scientific/Technological Companies: From the Experience of Sibtsvetmetavtomatika 594 Preparation for Production: A Key Stage in Implementing Technological Policy 598 Uniform System for the Technical Preparation of Production 616 Bibliography 627 About the Author 687 .......................... 7407$$ CNTS 12-08-03 10:35:33 PS .......................... 7407$$ CNTS 12-08-03 10:35:33 PS PREFACE This is not a typical book. It was not written all at once—it contains articles, forecasts, and studies made over the past 30 years. Life passes so quickly one can hardly remember how old one is; having just written that phrase, I remembered my age. I did not know how many pages in this book I should dedicate to those individuals who have helped me. So I decided to thank, first, those who inspired me with the idea to prepare this collection. Sec- ondly, I need to thank those people who helped me with the actual preparation of the book. Before all else, however, I am indebted to my mother for her un- conditional support in all my life’s endeavors and to my father for, during my childhood, introducing me to business. I am grateful to my older brother, Pavel, a talented engineer who, instead of dating girls, often stayed home to explain to me the fundamentals of mod- ern technology. I am thankful to my daughters, Liza and Valeria, for forcing me, after a long day’s work, to sit down behind my desk and write many of the articles that are collected here. I also thank my Dina, who provided a warm environment during the preparation of this book. I will never forget my first arrival in the United States when I was met at JFK airport by Charlie Powleske and Peter Tichansky, leaders of the Business Council for International Understanding, who have been and continue to be my friends and colleagues throughout all my years in the United States. We all have different periods in our lives, but my American period was particularly difficult because I came here without any knowledge of the English language. I’m re- minded of my cat, Benji, who understands everything, but can say nothing. It was under these circumstances that I came to Forbes magazine and tried to explain the ‘‘strange’’ concept that the Soviet Union would soon disappear. They ended up publishing this as a cover story. This was the beginning of my writing career in the United States.
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