CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Remote Monitoring Update October 2013 Recent harvests are starting to improve the food security situation

KEY MESSAGES Figure 1. Estimated food security outcomes, October through December 2013 (left) and • Harvestsn i the southern and western parts of the country have January through March 2014 (right) improved the food security situation in these areas compared to conditions at the height of the lean season in August. Households in these areas are able to meet their food needs and will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through March 2014.

• Security conditions in the northern and central regions of the Highest estimated level of food insecurity in significant areas of concern using IPC 2.0 Area Reference Tables: country continue to limit access to normal income-generating Phase 1: Minimal

activities, as well as local households’ access to their fields, Phase 2: Stressed

thereby disrupting farming activities. As a result, food access is Phase 3 +: Crisis or higher

still limited and local households will continue to be Stressed Severity significantly mitigated by assistance (IPC Phase 2) through March of next year. Source: FEWS NET

These maps represent relevant acute food insecurity outcomes in significant areas of concern for emergency decision-making. They do not necessarily reflect outcomes across the country or chronic food insecurity. For more information, visit: http://www.fews.net/ml/en/info/pages/scale.aspx.

ZONE CURRENT ANOMALIES PROJECTED ANOMALIES Mambéré-Kadeï, Lobaye, • Below-average harvests • Below-average food stocks will cause Ombella, Ouham, Kaga households to be more dependent than usual Bandoro, and Sibut on market purchases.

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH MARCH 2014

The Central African Republic has been in the throes of a politico-military crisis since December 2012, with armed groups continuing to roam the country. The unstable situation is continuing to trigger regular population displacements. According to the UNHCR, there are approximately 400,000 internally displaced persons within the country, including 37,000 in the city of Bossangoa who were displaced during the past two months by violence in neighboring areas.

Theree ar ongoing reports of security incidents, both in Bangui and across the country, with humanitarian organizations becoming increasingly the target of looting and attacks by armed groups. This is significantly limiting the delivery of assistance to at-risk populations (refugees and IDPs). Despite these unstable security conditions, NGOs (ex. Action Against Hunger (ACF), Doctors Without Borders, Mercy Corps, COOPI, and the Red Cross), U.N. agencies, and their partners are coordinating their efforts to assist at-risk groups within their respective service areas. For example, the World Food Program (WFP) reported that they distributed 715 metric tons of food supplies to 55,126 recipients throughout the country during August 2013. nHarvests i the north are getting off to a slow start and are expected to be below-average. Despite relatively normal rainfall, satellite imagery shows low levels of vegetation between July and September, particularly in Lobaye, Mambéré- Kadeï, Lobaye, Ombella, Ouham, Kaga Bandoro, and Sibut (Figures 2 and 3). This satellite data would appear to corroborate

FEWS NET Central African Republic FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily [email protected] reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the www.fews.net United States Government.

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Remote Monitoring Update October 2013

Figure 2. Cumulative rainfall estimate (RFE) for Batangafo, preliminary ground reports of a significant reduction in Ouham cultivated land area due to the late start-of-season and the effects of the ongoing conflict on the availability of seeds and farming implements, as well as on access to local fields. More recently, a number of farmers were forced to abandon their fields due to violence in late August and early September. For poor households who depend on agricultural labor as a key income source, the disruptions to agricultural activities have caused a decline in income levels.

In general, the food security situation is showing a slight Source: USGS/FEWS NET improvement over conditions at the height of the lean season in August with the start of cowpea and maize harvests and the large availability of tuber crops, Figure 3. eMODIS normalized difference vegetation index particularly cassava, in certain areas. Access to staple (NDVI) for Batangafo, Ouham foods vary depending on the region and socioeconomic group in question, and is better in the south than in the north. Households residing in the south, the west, and parts of the east are currently consuming food from their own crop production and are expected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through March 2014.

In the northern and central regions of the country that were hard hit by the combined effects of the politico- military crisis and the disruptions in the growing season, Source: USGS/FEWS NET access to staple foods continues to be a source of concern despite the start of harvesting activities. Food availability for both households and traders is poor compared with seasonal norms. Moreover, the security situation is limiting access to normal sources of household income, as well as access to local fields which is interfering with the start-up of market gardening activities. As a result, poor households in these areas will reduce their expenditures relating to essential nonfood items and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through March 2014.

SEASONAL CALANDER FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

Source: FEWS NET

ABOUT REMOTE MONITORING In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available,

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Remote Monitoring Update October 2013 remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. More at: http://www.fews.net/Pages/remote-monitoring.aspx?l=fr.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3