Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Overview
1.1.1 This Appendix describes the SEStran Regional Model (SRM) outputs for the five defined scenario option tests. The definition of these scenario options and any associated modelling assumptions is described in the MLDP Options for Appraisal Note (SYSTRA, September 2010).
1.1.2 Each scenario option is compared with the MLDP Reference Case and the SEStran Regional Model Analysis Report (SYSTRA, September 2010) provides a summary of the Midlothian LDP model analysis, which has been undertaken using the SRM. This document also includes a summary of the SRM, and the definition of the assumed MLDP land-use scenario, which is common in all the scenario option tests.
1.2 Model Dimensions
1.2.1 The SRM demand model contains 470 zones from which traffic and travel (both road and PT based) originates and destinates. Where 16 zones make up Midlothian in the demand and PT models, this is expanded to 27 zones for the road model. This allows for a better representation of the traffic movements within the Midlothian area with the inclusion of additional network detail.
1.2.2 The SRM is representative of average weekday travel movements within which the following time periods are modelled:
Average weekday (AM) morning peak hour: 07:00-10:00; and Average weekday (IP) inter peak hour: 10:00-16:00; and Average weekday (PM) evening peak hour: 16:00-19:00.
1.2.3 Individual factors are applied by mode and time period to create an ‘average’ peak hour. For the purposes of appraising the MLDP scenario options, modelled outputs from AM and PM peak hours have been analysed where the transport impacts are greatest. Interpeak hour model outputs are available.
1.2.4 The road assignment model includes five assigned vehicle types and journey purposes as follows:
Car In-Work; Car Non-Work Commuter; Car Non-Work Other; LGV; and HGV.
1.2.5 The PT assignment model includes three assigned PT purposes as follows:
PT In-Work; Car Non-Work Commuter; and Car Non-Work Other.
Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
1.3 Key Performance Indicators
1.3.1 The KPIs for the MLDP, as described in Chapter 1, include a wide range of metrics, not all of which can be measured using the SRM as part of the MLDP appraisal, or that are directly relevant when identifying issues and appraising options. Therefore, the following indicators have been used when undertaking the LDP appraisal using the SRM:
Travel Demand (AM and PM peak periods): PT mode share; and Park and Ride site occupancies.
Network Demand (AM and PM peak hours): vehicle kilometres on key corridors in study area (A68, A7, A701, A702, A703, A720); and passenger kilometres on key corridors in study area (A68, A7, A701, A702, A703, A720, Waverley Rail Line).
Road Network Operation (AM and PM peak hours): average vehicle speeds on key corridors in study area; delays at junctions (total and per vehicle); ratio of (traffic) flow to capacity (RFC); car journey times along main Midlothian corridors; PT journey times to/from Edinburgh city centre; estimated annual vehicle carbon emissions; and estimated annual accident numbers using standard accident rates.
1.4 Sector System
1.4.1 For the purposes of analysing the LDP scenario options, a matrix sector system has been prepared as shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. A sector system combines a number of zones together for the purpose of reporting. This sector system represents Midlothian via 10 sectors and aggregates the other local authorities. In addition to these, the external trips (all movements to\from outwith the SRM area) have been included in a single sector and the park & ride sites have been aggregated into a single sector.
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14
12
13
1
10
8 9 15 7
3
5 6
2 4
11 11
Figure 1. Midlothian Sector Map
Table 1. SRM Sector System SECTOR DESCRIPTION SECTOR DESCRIPTION 1 Shawfair and Danderhall 11 The Borders 2 Gorebridge 12 North Edinburgh 3 Roslin/Bilston 13 South Edinburgh 4 Penicuik 14 East Lothian 5 Rosewell 15 West Lothian 6 Newtongrange 16 West 7 Mayfield 17 Fife 8 Loanhead 18 Externals 9 Bonnyrigg 19 Park and Ride 10 Dalkeith
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1.5 Model Corridors
1.5.1 As well as matrix sectors, groupings of road links have been defined as corridors for reporting of key link attributes and this is illustrated in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Strategic Corridors
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1.6 Car Journey Time Routes
1.6.1 For each scenario option a selection of journey time routes have been analysed on the two key corridors towards Edinburgh through Midlothian, as shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Journey Time Route Map
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2. SCENARIO 1: SITE HS1 (S2) NEW ACCESS
2.1 Overview
2.1.1 Site Hs1 (S2) is a development at Newton Farm, near Shawfair. A total of 480 dwellings are proposed for this site by 2024. In the reference case, these dwellings connect to the road network via the B6415 Old Craighall Road. For this scenario option, the Hs1 development is connected to the A720/A68 interchange via a new access arm to the West of the junction. In order to model the traffic associated with the Hs1 site, the number of trips with an origin or destination in the original zone (Zone 251) within which Hs1 lies, require to be split. These trips have been taken away from the original zone and added to the new zone. The volume of trips have been estimated based on the proportion of households. This excludes intra-zonal’ trips within the Shawfair zone which have not been changed in this scenario option that focusses on strategic traffic movements.
2.2 Vehicle Distance by Key Corridor
2.2.1 The modelled annual vehicle distance (in kilometres) has been evaluated on a corridor basis (see Figure 2 for the reference to corridors). Table 2 presents the estimated annualised vehicle kms for Scenario 1 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 2. Scenario 1 Annualised Vehicle KMs By Key Corridor (1,000’s) CORRIDOR REFERENCE CASE SCENARIO CHANGE
1 A720 246,570 246,490 -80 -0.03%
2 A702 21,320 21,310 -10 -0.05%
3 A701 23,020 23,010 -10 -0.04%
4 A7 44,400 44,430 30 -0.07%
5 A68 29,670 29,680 10 -0.03%
2.2.2 Key findings:
This scenario results in a very slight reduction in vehicle distance on the strategic road network.
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2.3 Network Performance
2.3.1 The following series of Figures illustrate the change in road network performance for Scenario 1 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Figure 4. Scenario 1 AM Junction Delays
Figure 5. Scenario 1 PM Junction Delays
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Figure 6. Scenario 1 AM Volume to Capacity Ratio
Figure 7. Scenario 1 PM Volume to Capacity Ratio
2.3.2 Key findings:
the loading of site Hs1 strategic traffic via the A720/A68 junction does not present any issues at this or adjacent junctions and has a relatively minor impact on the strategic road network performance.
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2.4 Average Vehicle Speeds
2.4.1 Table 3 and Table 4 present the network average speeds for Scenario 1 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM and PM peak hours respectively. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
Table 3. Scenario 1 AM Average Vehicle Speeds CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 43.8 43.6 -0.2 -0.5%
2 A702 61.4 61.4 0 0%
3 A701 41.4 41.7 0.3 0.7%
4 A7 62.4 62.3 -0.1 -0.2%
5 A68 71.0 71.0 0 0%
Local Roads in - 48.3 47.4 -0.9 -1.9% Midlothian
Midlothian 47.5 47.1 -0.4 -0.8%
Table 4. Scenario 1 PM Average Vehicle Speeds CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 50.8 50.9 0.1 0.2%
2 A702 61.9 62.0 0.1 0.2%
3 A701 41.9 41.8 -0.1 -0.2%
4 A7 58.1 58.0 -0.1 -0.2%
5 A68 71.7 71.6 -0.1 -0.1%
Local Roads in - 47.3 47.3 0 0% Midlothian
Midlothian 49.2 49.3 0.1 0.2%
2.4.2 Key findings:
this scenario shows little impact on the strategic road network in either the AM or PM peak hours with some minor increases and decreases in average vehicle speeds.
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2.5 Estimated Annual Vehicle Carbon Emissions
2.5.1 Based on the insignificant changes in annualised vehicle kilometres, there is anticipated to be no significant change in annual vehicle carbon emissions.
2.6 Estimated Annual Accident Numbers
2.6.1 Based on the insignificant changes in annualised vehicle kilometres, there is anticipated to be no significant change in annual accident numbers.
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3. SCENARIO 2: LOCAL JUNCTION CAPACITY RELIEF
3.1 Overview
3.1.1 This scenario option models potential capacity relief measures at the following junction locations:
1. A702/ A703/ Damhead MOVA Optimisation 2. A702/ Mauricewood Road Roundabout 3. A701/ Pentland Road/ Damhead MOVA Optimisation 4. A701/ A768 Roundabout 5. A701/ Seafield Road Roundabout 6. A701/ Graham’s Road/ Belwood Road MOVA optimisation 7. A7/ Bonnyrigg Road Do Nothing 8. A7/ B6392 Do Nothing 9. Lothian Street/ High Street, Bonnyrigg MOVA Optimisation 10. A7/ The Wisp Roundabout
3.2 Mode Share
3.2.1 Figure 8 and Figure 9 presents the mode share (car versus public transport) for Scenario 2 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM and PM peak hours respectively.
AM Modal Share 60%
50%
40% AM Outgoing PT Mode Share 30% Scenario 2 AM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref Case 20% AM Incoming PT Mode Share Scenario 2 10% AM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref Case 0%
Figure 8. Scenario 2 AM Mode Share
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PM Modal Share 60%
50%
40% PM Outgoing PT Mode Share 30% Scenario 2 PM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref Case 20% PM Incoming PT Mode Share Scenario 2 10% PM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref Case 0%
Figure 9. Scenario 2 PM Mode Share
3.2.2 Key findings:
there is a very slight decrease in modelled PT mode share in some locations, which is related to improved accessibility by private car with the junction improvements.
3.3 Park & Ride Occupancies
3.3.1 Table 5 below shows the modelled number of users (in the AM peak) of each Park and Ride site in the modelled scenario compared to the number of users of each site in the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 5. Scenario 2 Park & Ride Site Occupancy P&R SITE REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE IN USAGE CASE
Sheriffhall 300 304 4 1%
Straiton 179 172 -7 -4%
3.3.2 Key findings:
there is a very small reduction in the modelled number of users of the Straiton Park and Ride site. This is probably due to improvements to junctions along the A701 making private car trips more attractive.
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3.4 Vehicle Distance by Key Corridor
3.4.1 The modelled annual vehicle distance (in kilometres) has been evaluated on a corridor basis (see Figure 2 for the reference to corridors). Table 6 presents the estimated annualised vehicle kms for Scenario 2 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 6. Scenario 2 Annualised Vehicle KMs By Key Corridor (1,000’s) CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 246,570 246,180 -390 -0.2%
2 A702 21,320 20,400 -920 -4.3%
3 A701 23,020 23,520 500 2.2%
4 A7 44,400 44,190 -210 -0.5%
5 A68 29,670 29,720 50 0.2%
3.4.2 Key findings:
the model indicates a minor increase in vehicle distance on the A701 corridor reflecting an increase in assigned traffic along this route with the junction improvements and an associated reduction in congestion; a moderate reduction in vehicle distance on the A702 corridor where traffic re- routes onto the A701 as well as the A703 because of changes at the Damhead Road junction; and elsewhere the changes in vehicle distance are marginal.
3.5 Passenger Distance by Key Corridor
3.5.1 The modelled annual passenger distance (in kilometres) has been evaluated on a corridor basis (see Figure 2 for the corridor definition). Table 7 presents the estimated annualised passenger kms for Scenario 2 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 7. Scenario 2 Annualised Passenger KMs By Key Corridor (1,000’s) CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 450 480 30 7%
2 A702 240 230 -10 -4%
3 A701 22,460 22,670 210 1%
4 A7 5,860 5,760 -100 -2%
5 A68 4,560 4,620 60 1%
3.5.2 Key findings:
this scenario option shows a relatively minor impact in modelled passenger kilometres with some small increases and decreases.
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3.6 Network Performance
3.6.1 The following series of Figures illustrate the change in road network performance for Scenario 2 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. (Note that the changes to the A702/ A703 and A702/ Damhead are not shown on the above maps; since two junctions have been combined into one junction for this scenario option test it is nor a like-for-like comparison).
Figure 10. Scenario 2 AM Junction Delays
Figure 11. Scenario 2 PM Junction Delays
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Figure 12. Scenario 2 AM Volume to Capacity Ratio
Figure 13. Scenario 2 PM Volume to Capacity Ratio
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3.6.2 Key findings:
in general, the model indicates that broadly the mitigation measures tested have improved the operation of the modified junctions, with reductions in delays and volume to capacity ratios; the exceptions to this are: A702/ A703/ Damhead junction (not shown on the figures above), where the suggested conversion to a combined signalised junction has not relieved overall congestion levels indicating that further mitigation would be required at this location, possibly requiring more significant engineering works; and Lothian Street/ High Street junction in Bonnyrigg, where there have been changes in modelled traffic flows with the introduction of capacity relief measures, in particular an increase in traffic on High Street in both time periods, that have offset any potential congestion relief at this junction and where further mitigation analysis would be required. However, it should be noted that the strategic nature of the SRM may intensify these impacts where traffic loading is more concentrated than it would be in reality. more widely the model indicates that the improved operation of these junctions has a knock-on effect on other junctions (that were not improved); in particular the A701/ A720 Straiton junction and junctions on the A701 south of the A703 where released traffic has some negative impacts on network performance, however, these are generally operating within capacity.
3.7 Car Journey Times
3.7.1 Table 8 and Table 9 presents the car journey times for Scenario 2 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM northbound and PM southbound respectively for the routes shown in Figure 1.
Table 8. Scenario 2 AM Northbound Journey Times (seconds) ROUTE REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
(1) A701 from Leadburn to Penicuik Rd Roundabout 684 606 -78 -11%
(2) A701 from Penicuik Rd Roundabout to A768 Junction 190 215 25 13%
(3) A701 From A768 Junction to A720 Flyover 170 151 -19 -11%
(4) A7 B6368 Junction to B6392 Roundabout 826 824 -2 0%
(5) A7 B6392 Roundabout to Sheriffhall 180 180 0 0%
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Table 9. Scenario 2 PM Southbound Journey Times (seconds) ROUTE REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
(3) A701 From A720 Flyover to A768 Junction 272 226 -46 -17%
(2) A701 from A768 Junction to Penicuik Rd Roundabout 187 194 7 4%
(1) A701 from Penicuik Rd Roundabout to Leadburn 764 748 -16 -2%
(5) A7 Sheriffhall to B6392 Roundabout 274 244 -30 -11%
(4) A7 B6392 Roundabout to B6368 Junction 805 804 -1 0%
3.7.2 Key findings:
the model shows a notable reduction in journey times on all the defined routes, which reflects the positive impact of the mitigation measures on network performance; this is with the exception of route 2 where, as noted above, there is a predicted increase in congestion at some junctions (A701/B7006, A701/A703) as a result of increased traffic associated with the A701 junction improvements.
3.8 Average Vehicle Speeds
3.8.1 Table 10 and Table 11 present the network average speeds for Scenario 2 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM and PM peak hours respectively. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
Table 10. Scenario 2 AM Average Vehicle Speeds CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 43.8 43.6 -0.16 0%
2 A702 61.4 43.1 -18.28 -30%
3 A701 41.4 41.0 -0.40 -1%
4 A7 62.4 60.2 -2.16 -3%
5 A68 71.0 71.4 0.35 0%
Local Roads in - 48.3 Midlothian 47.6 -0.67 -1%
Midlothian 47.5 46.8 -0.72 -2%
Table 11. Scenario 2 PM Average Vehicle Speeds CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
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CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 50.8 51.1 0.26 1%
2 A702 61.9 65.9 3.98 6%
3 A701 41.9 41.5 -0.36 -1%
4 A7 58.1 58.5 0.38 1%
5 A68 71.7 71.7 -0.04 0%
Local Roads in - 47.3 Midlothian 47.1 -0.22 0%
Midlothian 49.2 49.2 -0.01 0%
3.8.2 Key findings:
the model shows a significant reduction in speeds on the A702 in the AM peak. This reflects the network performance outputs reported above where the suggested conversion of A702/ A703/ Damhead junction to a combined signalised junction has not relieved overall congestion levels and increased delays on the A702 northbound as indicated by the average modelled speeds. This indicates that further mitigation would be required at this location possibly requiring more significant engineering works; also reflecting the individual junction performance reported above, the modelled change in average vehicle speeds elsewhere are more marginal showing some minor positive and negative impacts on the strategic road network with the junction changes.
3.9 PT Journey Times to/from Edinburgh
3.9.1 Table 12 and Table 13 presents the average modelled public transport journey times between each of the Midlothian sectors and Edinburgh city centre for Scenario 2 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM northbound and PM southbound respectively. These journey times include wait time at stops and in-vehicle time and have been extracted from the SRM PT ‘skims’ which report modelled characteristics for each origin-destination journey. Walk time to/from stops is not included in this analysis and it is not anticipated this would notably change between the model tests being considered.
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Table 12. Scenario 2 AM Northbound Journey Times to Edinburgh City Centre (minutes) SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair and Danderhall 37 37 0 0%
2 Gorebridge 61 61 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 50 49 -1 -2%
4 Penicuik 59 55 -4 -7%
5 Rosewell 52 52 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 57 56 -1 -2%
7 Mayfield 57 58 1 2%
8 Loanhead 43 43 0 0%
9 Bonnyrigg 49 49 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 49 50 1 2%
Table 13. Scenario 2 PM Southbound Journey Times from Edinburgh City Centre (minutes) SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair and Danderhall 40 41 1 3%
2 Gorebridge 71 70 -1 -1%
3 Roslin/Bilston 70 68 -2 -3%
4 Penicuik 75 74 -1 -1%
5 Rosewell 60 60 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 69 69 0 0%
7 Mayfield 71 71 0 0%
8 Loanhead 59 58 -1 -2%
9 Bonnyrigg 57 58 1 2%
10 Dalkeith 48 52 4 8%
3.9.2 Key findings:
the model shows some a minor to moderate reduction in average modelled journey times to/from Roslin/Bilston and Penicuik; and the model shows an increase in average modelled journey times to Dalkeith in the PM peak.
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3.10 Estimated Annual Vehicle Carbon Emissions
3.10.1 The environmental impacts associated with forecast traffic in the Midlothian area only have been estimated using standard emissions rates (as per WebTAG guidance) based on link flows and average junction delays.
3.10.2 Table 14 presents the estimated annual Carbon emissions for Scenario 2 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
Table 14. Scenario 2 Carbon Emissions CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 5,370 5,370 0 0%
2 A702 790 760 -30 -4%
3 A701 1,230 1,250 20 2%
4 A7 2,020 2,010 -10 0%
5 A68 1,430 1,430 0 0%
Local Roads in - 11,950 11,850 -100 1% Midlothian
Midlothian 22,790 22,670 -120 -1%
3.10.3 Key findings:
the model broadly shows a minor reduction in vehicle emissions on the strategic road network, which is associated with the relief in traffic congestion arising from the junction mitigation measures. Only the A701 has an increase in predicted emissions, which is associated with the increase in modelled traffic along this corridor, and is minor in scale.
3.11 Estimated Annual Accident Numbers
Annual accident numbers have been estimated using the SRM assigned traffic volumes and standard accident rates. It should be noted that these accident statistics may not reflect particular local trends or characteristics in the study area as they are based on standard average accident rates. They do, however, provide a useful indicator when comparing the relative change between scenarios.
3.11.1 Table 15 presents the estimated annual total accident numbers (including damage only) for Scenario 2 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
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Table 15. Scenario 2 Total Accidents SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair/ Danderhall 7.6 7.7 0.1 1%
2 Gorebridge 12.1 12.1 0 0%
3 Roslin/ Bilston 9.8 9.8 0 0%
4 Penicuik 7.4 7.5 0.1 1%
5 Rosewell 5.1 5 -0.1 -2%
6 Newtongrange 0.4 0.4 0 0%
7 Mayfield 0.3 0.3 0 0%
8 Loanhead 1.8 2 0.2 11%
9 Bonnyrigg 11.2 11.2 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 4 4 0 0%
Midlothian 59.7 60 0.3 1%
3.11.2 Key findings:
the model broadly shows a negligible change in the modelled annual accident statistics with only Loanhead showing an increase in predicted accident figures, which is associated with the increase in modelled traffic along this corridor, and is minor in scale.
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4. SCENARIO 3: PT INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES IMPROVEMENT
4.1 Overview
4.1.1 This scenario option looks at the impact of a higher public transport mode share from LDP allocation sites. An increase of 5% points in PT mode share is considered an ambitious yet not overly unrealistic figure for this scenario option. To represent this scenario option in SRM, the number of trips generated by LDP allocation developments has been calculated by comparison of the assignment trip matrices for a “committed only” scenario versus a full LDP land-use scenario. The public transport mode split has been increased by 5% points (and the number of road trips reduced by a corresponding amount).
4.2 Mode Share
4.2.1 Figure 14 and Figure 15 presents the mode share (car versus public transport) for Scenario 3 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM and PM peak hours respectively.
AM Modal Share 60%
50%
40% AM Outgoing PT Mode Share 30% Scenario 3 AM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref Case 20% AM Incoming PT Mode Share Scenario 3 10% AM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref Case 0%
Figure 14. Scenario 3 AM Mode Share
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PM Modal Share 60%
50%
40% PM Outgoing PT Mode Share 30% Scenario 3 PM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref Case 20% PM Incoming PT Mode Share Scenario 3 10% PM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref Case 0%
Figure 15. Scenario 3 PM Mode Share
4.2.2 Key findings:
the model shows the 5% point shift to PT travel for LDP development sites has a small impact on the overall mode share in the strategic model.
4.3 Vehicle Distance by Key Corridor
4.3.1 The modelled annual vehicle distance (in kilometres) has been evaluated on a corridor basis (see Figure 2 for the reference to corridors). Table 16 presents the estimated annualised vehicle kms for Scenario 3 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 16. Scenario 3 Annualised Vehicle KMs By Key Corridor (1,000’s) CORRIDOR REFERENCE CASE SCENARIO CHANGE
1 A720 246,570 246,580 10 0%
2 A702 21,320 21,290 -30 -0.1%
3 A701 23,020 22,880 -140 -0.6%
4 A7 44,400 44,430 30 0.1%
5 A68 29,670 29,640 -30 -0.1%
4.3.2 Key findings:
the model shows a slight reduction in vehicle kilometres on the key corridors, which correlates with the overall change in mode share
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4.4 Passenger Distance by Key Corridor
4.4.1 The modelled annual passenger distance (in kilometres) has been evaluated on a corridor basis (see Figure 2 for the corridor definition). Table 17 presents the estimated annualised passenger kms for Scenario 3 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 17. Scenario 3 Annualised Passenger KMs By Key Corridor (1,000’s) CORRIDOR REFERENCE CASE SCENARIO CHANGE
1 A720 450 460 10 2%
2 A702 240 240 0 0%
3 A701 22,460 22,530 70 0%
4 A7 5,860 5,950 90 2%
5 A68 4,560 4,570 10 0%
4.4.2 Key findings:
The model shows a slight increase in passenger distance, which correlates with the change in overall mode share.
4.5 Network Performance
4.5.1 The following series of Figures illustrate the change in road network performance for Scenario 3 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Figure 16. Scenario 3 AM Junction Delays
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Figure 17. Scenario 3 PM Junction Delays
Figure 18. Scenario 3 AM Volume to Capacity Ratio
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Figure 19. Scenario 3 PM Volume to Capacity Ratio
4.5.2 Key findings:
in general, the model shows little overall impact on the performance of the strategic road network, which is not unexpected given the slight change in overall assigned traffic volumes; the model shows small reductions in delays and volume to capacity ratios at certain junctions which reflect the slight reduction in trips from adjacent LDP sites, but in some locations these are offset by traffic reassignment.
4.6 Car Journey Times
4.6.1 Table 18 and Table 19 presents the car journey times for Scenario 3 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM northbound and PM southbound respectively for the routes shown in Figure 1.
Table 18. Scenario 3 AM Northbound Journey Times (seconds) ROUTE REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
(1) A701 from Leadburn to Penicuik Rd Roundabout 684 694 10 1%
(2) A701 from Penicuik Rd Roundabout to A768 Junction 190 189 -1 -1%
(3) A701 From A768 Junction to A720 Flyover 170 164 -6 -4%
(4) A7 B6368 Junction to B6392 Roundabout 826 826 0 0%
(5) A7 B6392 Roundabout to Sheriffhall 180 180 0 0%
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Table 19. Scenario 3 PM Southbound Journey Times (seconds) ROUTE REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
(3) A701 From A720 Flyover to A768 Junction 272 270 -2 -1%
(2) A701 from A768 Junction to Penicuik Rd Roundabout 187 187 0 0%
(1) A701 from Penicuik Rd Roundabout to Leadburn 764 775 11 1%
(5) A7 Sheriffhall to B6392 Roundabout 274 272 -2 -1%
(4) A7 B6392 Roundabout to B6368 Junction 805 804 -1 0%
4.6.2 Key findings:
the model shows a marginal change in journey times across along the strategic road corridors within Midlothian.
4.7 Average Vehicle Speeds
4.7.1 Table 20 and Table 21 present the network average speeds for Scenario 3 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM and PM peak hours respectively. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
Table 20. Scenario 3 AM Average Vehicle Speeds CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 43.8 44.0 0.2 0.5%
2 A702 61.4 61.4 0 0%
3 A701 41.4 41.8 0.4 1.0%
4 A7 62.4 62.4 0 0%
5 A68 71.0 71.0 0 0%
Local Roads in - 48.3 Midlothian 48.3 0 0%
Midlothian 47.5 47.7 0.2 0.4%
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Table 21. Scenario 3 PM Average Vehicle Speeds CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 50.8 50.9 0.1 0.2%
2 A702 61.9 62.0 0.1 0.2%
3 A701 41.9 41.9 0 0%
4 A7 58.1 58.1 0 0%
5 A68 71.7 71.7 0 0%
Local Roads in - 47.3 Midlothian 47.3 0 0%
Midlothian 49.2 49.3 0.1 0.2%
4.7.2 Key findings:
the model shows a very slight increase in vehicle speeds which is reflective of the slight reduction in vehicle kilometres.
4.8 PT Journey Times to/from Edinburgh
4.8.1 Table 22 and Table 23 presents the average modelled public transport journey times between each of the Midlothian sectors and Edinburgh city centre for Scenario 3 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM northbound and PM southbound respectively. These journey times include wait time at stops and in-vehicle time and have been extracted from the SRM PT ‘skims’ which report modelled characteristics for each origin-destination journey. Walk time to/from stops is not included in this analysis and it is not anticipated this would notably change between the model tests being considered.
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Table 22. Scenario 3 AM Northbound Journey Times to Edinburgh City Centre (minutes) SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair and Danderhall 37 37 0 0%
2 Gorebridge 61 61 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 50 49 -1 -2%
4 Penicuik 59 59 0 0%
5 Rosewell 52 52 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 57 57 0 0%
7 Mayfield 57 57 0 0%
8 Loanhead 43 43 0 0%
9 Bonnyrigg 49 49 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 49 50 1 2%
Table 23. Scenario 3 PM Southbound Journey Times from Edinburgh City Centre (minutes) SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair and Danderhall 40 40 0 0%
2 Gorebridge 71 71 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 70 69 -1 -1%
4 Penicuik 75 74 -1 -1%
5 Rosewell 60 60 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 69 69 0 0%
7 Mayfield 71 72 1 1%
8 Loanhead 59 59 0 0%
9 Bonnyrigg 57 57 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 48 47 -1 -2%
4.8.2 Key findings:
the model shows a negligible change in average modelled PT journey times, which reflects the marginal change in road network speeds.
A29 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
4.9 Estimated Annual Vehicle Carbon Emissions
4.9.1 The environmental impacts associated with forecast traffic in the Midlothian area only have been estimated using standard emissions rates (as per WebTAG guidance) based on link flows and average junction delays.
4.9.2 Table 24 presents the estimated annual Carbon emissions for Scenario 3 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
Table 24. Scenario 3 Carbon Emissions CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 5,370 5,370 0 0%
2 A702 790 790 0 0%
3 A701 1,230 1,220 -10 -1%
4 A7 2,020 2,020 0 0%
5 A68 1,430 1,420 -10 -1%
Local Roads in - 11,950 Midlothian 11,920 -30 0%
Midlothian 22,790 22,740 -50 0%
4.9.3 Key findings:
the model shows little change in carbon emissions on the modelled road network.
4.10 Estimated Annual Accident Numbers
4.10.1 Annual accident numbers have been estimated using the SRM assigned traffic volumes and standard accident rates. It should be noted that these accident statistics may not reflect particular local trends or characteristics in the study area as they are based on standard average accident rates. They do, however, provide a useful indicator when comparing the relative change between scenarios.
4.10.2 Table 25 presents the estimated annual total accident numbers (including damage only) for Scenario 3 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
A30 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Table 25. Scenario 3 Total Accidents SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair/ Danderhall 7.6 7.6 0 0%
2 Gorebridge 12.1 12.1 0 0%
3 Roslin/ Bilston 9.8 9.8 0 0%
4 Penicuik 7.4 7.4 0 0%
5 Rosewell 5.1 5.1 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 0.4 0.4 0 0%
7 Mayfield 0.3 0.3 0 0%
8 Loanhead 1.8 1.8 0 0%
9 Bonnyrigg 11.2 11.2 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 4 4 0 0%
Midlothian 59.7 59.7 0 0%
4.10.3 Key findings:
the model broadly shows no change in the modelled annual accident statistics.
A31 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
5. SCENARIO 4: A701 RELIEF ROAD AND LINK ROAD
5.1 Overview
5.1.1 This scenario option considers the re-alignment of the A701 between the Straiton roundabout at the A720 Edinburgh City Bypass and the existing junction with the A703. The intervention comprises a new single-lane carriageway with a 50 mph speed limit to the west of the existing A701, linking into the existing A703 and a new link from here to the A702. There would also be a new link road between the new A701/A703 junction and the A702.
5.2 Mode Share
5.2.1 Figure 20 and Figure 21 presents the mode share (car versus public transport) for Scenario 4 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM and PM peak hours respectively.
AM Modal Share 60%
50%
40% AM Outgoing PT Mode Share 30% Scenario 4 AM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref Case 20% AM Incoming PT Mode Share Scenario 4 10% AM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref Case 0%
Figure 20. Scenario 4 AM Mode Share
A32 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
PM Modal Share 60%
50%
40% PM Outgoing PT Mode Share 30% Scenario 4 PM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref Case 20% PM Incoming PT Mode Share Scenario 4 10% PM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref Case 0%
Figure 21. Scenario 4 PM Mode Share
5.2.2 Key findings:
there is a very slight decrease in modelled PT mode share in some locations, which is related to improved accessibility by private car with this scenario.
5.3 Park & Ride Occupancies
5.3.1 Table 26 below shows the modelled number of users (in the AM peak) of each Park and Ride site in the modelled scenario compared to the number of users of each site in the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 26. Scenario 4 Park & Ride Site Occupancy P&R SITE REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE IN USAGE CASE
Sheriffhall 300 300 0 0%
Straiton 179 169 -10 -6%
5.3.2 Key findings:
the model shows a small reduction in modelled usage of the Straiton Park and Ride site, which is most likely due to the enhanced connectivity to Edinburgh along the re-aligned A701.
A33 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
5.4 Vehicle Distance by Key Corridor
5.4.1 The modelled annual vehicle distance (in kilometres) has been evaluated on a corridor basis (see Figure 2 for the reference to corridors). Table 27 presents the estimated annualised vehicle kms for Scenario 4 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 27. Scenario 4 Annualised Vehicle KMs By Key Corridor (1,000’s)
CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 246,570 243,780 -2,790 -1%
2 A702 21,320 21,140 -180 -1%
3 A701 23,020 16,050 -6,970 -30%
New A701 Alignment 3a - 22,100 - - (incl. A702 link road)
4 A7 44,400 42,610 -1,790 -4%
5 A68 29,670 29,720 50 0%
- Local Roads 237,720 234,630 -3,090 -1%
5.4.2 Key findings:
there is a significant decrease in annual vehicle kilometres on the existing A701 (30%), which would be expected due to vehicles using the new A701 alignment instead; there is also a small decrease in annual vehicle kilometres on local roads; and there is, however, a net increase in vehicle distance on the modelled strategic road network which is due to the longer distance of the re-aligned A701 as well as re-routing onto the new roads.
5.5 Passenger Distance by Key Corridor
5.5.1 The modelled annual passenger distance (in kilometres) has been evaluated on a corridor basis (see Figure 2 for the corridor definition). Table 28 presents the estimated annualised passenger kms for Scenario 4 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 28. Scenario 4 Annualised Passenger KMs By Key Corridor (1,000’s) CORRIDOR REFERENCE CASE SCENARIO CHANGE
1 A720 450 450 0 0%
2 A702 240 250 10 4%
3 A701 22,460 22,280 -180 -1%
4 A7 5,860 5,900 40 1%
5 A68 4,560 4,500 -60 -1%
5.5.2 Key findings:
A34 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
the model shows a small decrease in passenger kilometres on the A701 possibly related to the reduction in park & ride usage at Straiton.
5.6 Network Performance
5.6.1 The following series of Figures illustrate the change in road network performance for Scenario 4 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Figure 22. Scenario 4 AM Junction Delays
Figure 23. Scenario 4 PM Junction Delays
A35 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Figure 24. Scenario 4 AM Volume to Capacity Ratio
Figure 25. Scenario 4 PM Volume to Capacity Ratio
5.6.2 Key findings:
in the AM peak the model shows a small increase in delays at some junctions on the current A701, notably the A701/ Damhead/ Pentland Road junction. This appears to be due to an increase in traffic using Damhead to access Straiton and Loanhead;
A36 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
in the PM peak the model shows a reduction in delays at all of the junctions on the current A701 between the A703 junction and the Straiton roundabout, as would be expected due to traffic using the new A701 alignment instead of the current A701; and in the AM peak, the model shows a reduction in the volume to capacity ratio at all of the junctions along the A701. However, it does show a small increase at the A703/ Seafield Road junction, which appears to be due to traffic using the A703 to access the new A701 alignment; in the PM peak, the model shows a reduction in the volume to capacity ratio at most of the junctions along the A701 between the A703 junction and the Straiton roundabout. South of the A703 there is a small increase in the volume to capacity ratio at most of the junctions, which appears to be due to increased traffic along this stretch of the A701 due to traffic re-joining the current A701 from the new A701 alignment. There is also a small increase at the A703/ Seafield Road junction for the same reason. The model also shows a small increase in volume to capacity ratio at the Straiton Park/ A701 roundabout; there is some minor relief in congestion elsewhere in the modelled road network.
5.7 Car Journey Times
5.7.1 Table 29 and Table 30 presents the car journey times for Scenario 4 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM northbound and PM southbound respectively for the routes shown in Figure 1.
Table 29. Scenario 4 AM Northbound Journey Times (seconds) ROUTE REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
(1) A701 from Leadburn to Penicuik Rd Roundabout 684 724 40 6%
(2) A701 from Penicuik Rd Roundabout to A768 Junction 190 179 -11 -6%
(3) A701 From A768 Junction to A720 Flyover 170 175 5 3%
(4) A7 B6368 Junction to B6392 Roundabout 826 826 0 0%
(5) A7 B6392 Roundabout to Sheriffhall 180 180 0 0%
Table 30. Scenario 4 PM Southbound Journey Times (seconds) ROUTE REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
(3) A701 From A720 Flyover to A768 Junction 272 175 -97 -36%
(2) A701 from A768 Junction to Penicuik Rd Roundabout 187 182 -5 -3%
(1) A701 from Penicuik Rd Roundabout to Leadburn 764 830 66 9%
(5) A7 Sheriffhall to B6392 Roundabout 274 255 -19 -7%
(4) A7 B6392 Roundabout to B6368 Junction 805 804 -1 0%
A37 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
5.7.2 Key findings:
the model shows a small increase in AM journey time on the A701 to the roundabout with Penicuik Road. This appears to be due to more traffic using this section of the A701 (south of the new A701 alignment); the model shows a reduction in AM journey time on the A701 between the roundabout at Penicuik Road and the junction with the A768. This appears to be due to traffic using the new A701 alignment instead of the existing A701; the model also shows a small increase in AM journey time on the A701 between the junction with the A768 and the A720 Flyover. This is largely due to modelled priority at the A720 junction (Straiton Roundabout) being given to flows along the new A701 alignment. It may be possible to reduce this delay by investigating alternative lane configurations or junction layouts and this could be considered further at a more detailed design stage; the model shows a significant reduction in the southbound PM journey time on the A701 between the A720 Flyover and the junction with the A768, and a small reduction between the A768 junction and the roundabout with Penicuik Road. This is due to traffic using the new A701 alignment instead of the existing road; and the model shows a small increase in southbound PM journey times on the A701 south of the roundabout with Penicuik Road. Again, this is due to more traffic using this section of the A701 (south of the new A701 alignment).
5.8 Average Vehicle Speeds
5.8.1 Table 31 and Table 32 present the network average speeds for Scenario 4 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM and PM peak hours respectively. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
Table 31. Scenario 4 AM Average Vehicle Speeds CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 43.8 43.3 -0.5 -1%
2 A702 61.4 62.6 1.2 2%
3 A701 41.4 41.6 0.2 0%
4 A7 62.4 61.4 -1.0 -2%
5 A68 71.0 70.5 -0.5 -1%
Local Roads in - 48.3 48.1 -0.2 0% Midlothian
Midlothian 47.5 47.4 -0.1 0%
A38 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Table 32. Scenario 4 PM Average Vehicle Speeds CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 50.8 51.6 0.8 2%
2 A702 61.9 62.2 0.3 0%
3 A701 41.9 41.7 -0.2 -1%
4 A7 58.1 59.5 1.4 2%
5 A68 71.7 71.8 0.1 0%
Local Roads in - 47.3 46.6 -0.7 -2% Midlothian
Midlothian 49.2 49.4 0.2 0%
5.8.2 Key findings:
the model shows a very slight increase in vehicle speeds along the existing A701 in the AM peak, a very slight decrease in the PM peak, and a marginal change elsewhere in the strategic road network. The decrease in speeds along the A701 in the PM peak appears to primarily be due to an increase in traffic on the A701 south of A703 (where the new A701 alignment starts).
5.9 PT Journey Times to/from Edinburgh
5.9.1 Table 33 and Table 34 presents the average modelled public transport journey times between each of the Midlothian sectors and Edinburgh city centre for Scenario 4 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM northbound and PM southbound respectively. These journey times include wait time at stops and in-vehicle time and have been extracted from the SRM PT ‘skims’ which report modelled characteristics for each origin-destination journey. Walk time to/from stops is not included in this analysis and it is not anticipated this would notably change between the model tests being considered.
A39 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Table 33. Scenario 4 AM Northbound Journey Times to Edinburgh City Centre (minutes) SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair and Danderhall 37 37 0 0%
2 Gorebridge 61 61 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 50 50 0 0%
4 Penicuik 59 59 0 0%
5 Rosewell 52 52 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 57 57 0 0%
7 Mayfield 57 58 1 2%
8 Loanhead 43 44 1 2%
9 Bonnyrigg 49 49 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 49 51 2 4%
Table 34. Scenario 4 PM Southbound Journey Times from Edinburgh City Centre (minutes) SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair and Danderhall 40 39 -1 -3%
2 Gorebridge 71 71 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 70 69 -1 -1%
4 Penicuik 75 76 1 1%
5 Rosewell 60 61 1 2%
6 Newtongrange 69 69 0 0%
7 Mayfield 71 72 1 1%
8 Loanhead 59 60 1 2%
9 Bonnyrigg 57 57 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 48 47 -1 -2%
5.9.2 Key findings:
the modelled change in average modelled PT journey times in both time periods is very slight.
A40 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
5.10 Estimated Annual Vehicle Carbon Emissions
5.10.1 The environmental impacts associated with forecast traffic in the Midlothian area only have been estimated using standard emissions rates (as per WebTAG guidance) based on link flows and average junction delays.
5.10.2 Table 35 presents the estimated annual Carbon emissions for Scenario 4 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
Table 35. Scenario 4 Carbon Emissions CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 5,370 5,300 -70 -1%
2 A702 790 770 -20 -3%
3 A701 1,230 840 -390 -32%
New A701 Alignment 3a - 760 - - (incl. A 702 link road)
4 A7 2,020 1,940 -80 -4%
5 A68 1,430 1,430 0 0%
Local Roads in - 11,950 11,870 -80 -1% Midlothian
Midlothian 22,790 22,910 120 1%
5.10.3 Key findings:
the model shows a major decrease in carbon emissions along the current A701, but this is offset by increased emissions along the new A701 alignment resulting in a slight net increase in emissions in the modelled road network.
5.11 Estimated Annual Accident Numbers
5.11.1 Annual accident numbers have been estimated using the SRM assigned traffic volumes and standard accident rates. It should be noted that these accident statistics may not reflect particular local trends or characteristics in the study area as they are based on standard average accident rates. They do, however, provide a useful indicator when comparing the relative change between scenarios.
5.11.2 Table 36 presents the estimated annual total accident numbers (including damage only) for Scenario 4 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
A41 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Table 36. Scenario 4 Total Accidents SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair/ Danderhall 7.6 7.6 0 0%
2 Gorebridge 12.1 12.2 0.1 1%
3 Roslin/ Bilston 9.8 10.3 0.5 5%
4 Penicuik 7.4 7.5 0.1 1%
5 Rosewell 5.1 5.0 -0.1 -2%
6 Newtongrange 0.4 0.4 0 0%
7 Mayfield 0.3 0.3 0 0%
8 Loanhead 1.8 1.7 -0.1 -6%
9 Bonnyrigg 11.2 11.3 0.1 1%
10 Dalkeith 4 0 0 0%
Midlothian 59.7 60.3 0.6 1%
5.11.3 Key findings:
the model shows a slight change in accident statistics with a small increase in Sector 3 (Roslin/ Bilston) and a small decrease in Sector 8 (Loanhead). This is due to more traffic using the new A701 alignment (which is in Sector 3) and less using the existing A701 (parts of which are in Sector 3 and parts in Sector 8).
A42 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
6. SCENARIO 5: A720 EDINBURGH BYPASS CAPACITY RELIEF
6.1 Overview
6.1.1 This scenario option represents the relief of congestion at the Edinburgh Bypass. It is recognised that the delivery of this is outside the control of Midlothian Council, but it is considered a valid test scenario to assess potential implications for the transport network in Midlothian.
6.1.2 For the purpose of the LDP appraisal, this scenario option has been defined as follows:
the creation of a grade-separated junction at the Sheriffhall roundabout (junction of the A720/ A7/ A6106) by linking the east and west-bound carriageways of the A720 through (i.e. over or under depending on more detailed design of the junction) the roundabout, allowing through traffic on the A720 to bypass this junction; and the extension of the grade-separated junction at Old Craighall (junction of the A720/ A1) with new direct links between the eastbound A720 and the eastbound A1 and the westbound A720 and the westbound A1.
6.2 Mode Share
6.2.1 Figure 26 and Figure 27 presents the mode share (car versus public transport) for Scenario 5 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM and PM peak hours respectively.
AM Modal Share 60%
50%
40% AM Outgoing PT Mode Share 30% Scenario 4 AM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref Case 20% AM Incoming PT Mode Share Scenario 4 10% AM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref Case 0%
Figure 26. Scenario 5 AM Mode Share
A43 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
PM Modal Share 60.0%
50.0%
40.0% PM Outgoing PT Mode Share 30.0% Scenario 5 PM Outgoing PT Mode Share Ref Case 20.0% PM Incoming PT Mode Share Scenario 5 10.0% PM Incoming PT Mode Share Ref Case 0.0%
Figure 27. Scenario 5 PM Mode Share
6.2.2 Key findings:
in general, there is little impact on modelled PT mode share.
6.3 Park & Ride Occupancies
6.3.1 Table 37 below shows the modelled number of users (in the AM peak) of each Park and Ride site in the modelled scenario compared to the number of users of each site in the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 37. Scenario 5 Park & Ride Site Occupancy P&R SITE REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE IN USAGE CASE
Sheriffhall 300 284 -16 -5%
Straiton 179 179 0 0%
6.3.2 Key findings:
the model shows a small reduction in modelled usage of the Sheriffhall Park and Ride site, which is most likely due to the enhanced connectivity to Edinburgh with the relief of congestion on the Edinburgh bypass.
A44 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
6.4 Vehicle Distance by Key Corridor
6.4.1 The modelled annual vehicle distance (in kilometres) has been evaluated on a corridor basis (see Figure 2 for the reference to corridors). Table 38 presents the estimated annualised vehicle kms for Scenario 5 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 38. Scenario 5 Annualised Vehicle KMs By Key Corridor (1,000’s) CORRIDOR REFERENCE CASE SCENARIO CHANGE
1 A720 246,570 305,860 59,290 24.0%
2 A702 21,320 21,320 0 0.0%
3 A701 23,020 22,990 -30 -0.1%
4 A7 44,400 44,520 120 0.3%
5 A68 29,670 29,690 20 0.1%
6.4.2 Key findings:
the model shows a significant increase in vehicle distance along the A720, which reflects the increase in traffic volumes associated with the capacity relief at Sherrifhall and Newcraighall junction where latent traffic demand is released in the modelled network; and there is little change in vehicle distance along the other corridors.
6.5 Passenger Distance by Key Corridor
6.5.1 The modelled annual passenger distance (in kilometres) has been evaluated on a corridor basis (see Figure 2 for the corridor definition). Table 39 presents the estimated annualised passenger kms for Scenario 5 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
Table 39. Scenario 5 Annualised Passenger KMs By Key Corridor (1,000’s) CORRIDOR REFERENCE CASE SCENARIO CHANGE
1 A720 450 460 10 2.2%
2 A702 240 240 0 0%
3 A701 22,460 22,530 70 0.3%
4 A7 5,860 5,950 90 1.5%
5 A68 4,560 4,570 10 0.2%
6.5.2 Key findings:
the model shows very slight changes in passenger distance on the strategic transport network.
6.6 Network Performance
6.6.1 The following series of Figures illustrate the change in road network performance for Scenario 5 compared against the MLDP Reference Case.
A45 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Figure 28. Scenario 5 AM Junction Delays
Figure 29. Scenario 5 PM Junction Delays
A46 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Figure 30. Scenario 5 AM Volume to Capacity Ratio
Figure 31. Scenario 5 PM Volume to Capacity Ratio
6.6.2 Key findings:
the model shows, as expected, significant positive impacts on network performance at the A720 Edinburgh bypass junctions that have been enhanced; and there are also some more limited wider network benefits arising from re-routing associated with the relieved congestion at the bypass junctions.
A47 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
6.7 Car Journey Times
6.7.1 Table 40 and Table 41 presents the car journey times for Scenario 5 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM northbound and PM southbound respectively for the routes shown in Figure 1.
Table 40. Scenario 5 AM Northbound Journey Times (seconds) ROUTE REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
(1) A701 from Leadburn to Penicuik Rd Roundabout 684 684 0 0%
(2) A701 from Penicuik Rd Roundabout to A768 Junction 190 189 -1 -1%
(3) A701 From A768 Junction to A720 Flyover 170 157 -13 -8%
(4) A7 B6368 Junction to B6392 Roundabout 826 831 5 1%
(5) A7 B6392 Roundabout to Sheriffhall 180 185 5 3%
Table 41. Scenario 5 PM Southbound Journey Times (seconds) ROUTE REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
(3) A701 From A720 Flyover to A768 Junction 272 272 0 0%
(2) A701 from A768 Junction to Penicuik Rd Roundabout 187 187 0 0%
(1) A701 from Penicuik Rd Roundabout to Leadburn 764 772 8 1%
(5) A7 Sheriffhall to B6392 Roundabout 274 278 4 1%
(4) A7 B6392 Roundabout to B6368 Junction 805 805 0 0%
6.7.2 Key findings:
the model shows a marginal reduction in journey times along the current A701 between the A768 and A720 which is due to some re-routing in the modelled network associated with the relieved congestion at the bypass junctions; and the model shows little change on the other routes.
6.8 Average Vehicle Speeds
6.8.1 Table 42 and Table 43 present the network average speeds for Scenario 5 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM and PM peak hours respectively. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
A48 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Table 42. Scenario 5 PM Average Vehicle Speeds CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 43.8 49.0 5.2 11.9%
2 A702 61.4 61.4 0.0 0.0%
3 A701 41.4 41.7 0.3 0.6%
4 A7 62.4 62.3 -0.1 -0.1%
5 A68 71.0 71.0 0.0 0.1%
Local Roads in - 48.3 47.4 -0.9 -1.8% Midlothian
Midlothian 47.5 49.0 1.5 3.1%
Table 43. Scenario 5 PM Average Vehicle Speeds CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 50.8 52.9 2.1 4.2%
2 A702 61.9 62.0 0.1 0.1%
3 A701 41.9 41.8 -0.1 -0.1%
4 A7 58.1 58.0 -0.1 -0.1%
5 A68 71.7 71.6 -0.1 -0.1%
Local Roads in - 47.3 47.3 -0.0 0.0% Midlothian
Midlothian 49.2 50.2 1.0 2.1%
6.8.2 Key findings:
the model shows a moderate to major increase in average speeds on the A720 in both the morning and evening peaks; the model also shows a minor decrease in speeds on local roads in Midlothian in the morning peak; and the model shows minimal changes in overall average speeds on the other corridors, with some very slight increases and decreases.
6.9 PT Journey Times to/from Edinburgh
6.9.1 Table 44 and Table 45 presents the average modelled public transport journey times between each of the Midlothian sectors and Edinburgh city centre for Scenario 5 compared against the MLDP Reference Case for the AM northbound and PM southbound respectively. These journey times include wait time at stops and in-vehicle time and have been extracted from the SRM PT ‘skims’ which report modelled characteristics for each origin-destination journey. Walk time to/from stops is not
A49 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
included in this analysis and it is not anticipated this would notably change between the model tests being considered.
Table 44. Scenario 5 AM Northbound Journey Times to Edinburgh City Centre (minutes) SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair and Danderhall 37 38 1 3%
2 Gorebridge 61 60 -1 -2%
3 Roslin/Bilston 50 49 -1 -2%
4 Penicuik 59 59 0 0%
5 Rosewell 52 52 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 57 56 -1 -2%
7 Mayfield 57 57 0 0%
8 Loanhead 43 43 0 0%
9 Bonnyrigg 49 49 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 49 49 0 0%
Table 45. Scenario 5 PM Southbound Journey Times from Edinburgh City Centre (minutes) SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair and Danderhall 40 39 -1 -3%
2 Gorebridge 71 71 0 0%
3 Roslin/Bilston 70 68 -2 -3%
4 Penicuik 75 73 -2 -3%
5 Rosewell 60 60 0 0%
6 Newtongrange 69 68 -1 -1%
7 Mayfield 71 71 0 0%
8 Loanhead 59 57 -2 -3%
9 Bonnyrigg 57 57 0 0%
10 Dalkeith 48 47 -1 -2%
6.9.2 Key findings:
the model broadly indicates a slight reduction in journey times to/from Edinburgh city centre associated the relieved congestion at the bypass junctions.
A50 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
6.10 Estimated Annual Vehicle Carbon Emissions
6.10.1 The environmental impacts associated with forecast traffic in the Midlothian area only have been estimated using standard emissions rates (as per WebTAG guidance) based on link flows and average junction delays.
6.10.2 Table 46 presents the estimated annual Carbon emissions for Scenario 5 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
Table 46. Scenario 5 Carbon Emissions CORRIDOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 A720 5,370 7,830 2,460 45.8%
2 A702 790 790 0 0%
3 A701 1,230 1,230 0 0%
4 A7 2,020 2,020 0 0%
5 A68 1,430 1,430 0 0%
Local Roads in - 11,950 11,930 -20 -0.2% Midlothian
Midlothian 22,790 25,230 2,440 10.7%
6.10.3 Key findings:
the model shows a significant increase in carbon emissions on the A720, which is directly related to the increase in assigned traffic volumes; and the model indicates a negligible change elsewhere in in modelled network.
6.11 Estimated Annual Accident Numbers
6.11.1 Annual accident numbers have been estimated using the SRM assigned traffic volumes and standard accident rates. It should be noted that these accident statistics may not reflect particular local trends or characteristics in the study area as they are based on standard average accident rates. They do, however, provide a useful indicator when comparing the relative change between scenarios.
6.11.2 Table 47 presents the estimated annual total accident numbers (including damage only) for Scenario 5 compared against the MLDP Reference Case. This analysis is restricted to the modelled Midlothian area only.
A51 Appendix A – SEStran Regional Model Option Assessment
Table 47. Scenario 5 Total Accidents SECTOR REFERENCE SCENARIO CHANGE CASE
1 Shawfair/ Danderhall 7.6 8.6 1 13%
2 Gorebridge 12.1 12.2 0.1 1%
3 Roslin/ Bilston 9.8 9.9 0.1 1%
4 Penicuik 7.4 7.4 0 0%
5 Rosewell 5.1 5.2 0.1 2%
6 Newtongrange 0.4 0.4 0 0%
7 Mayfield 0.3 0.3 0 0%
8 Loanhead 1.8 1.9 0.1 6%
9 Bonnyrigg 11.2 12.2 1 9%
10 Dalkeith 4 3.7 -0.3 -8%
Midlothian 59.7 61.8 2.1 4%
6.11.3 Key findings:
the model shows a moderate increase in annual accident figures in Sector 1 (Shawfair/ Danderhall), Sector 8 (Loanhead) and Sector 9 (Bonnyrigg). This is due to the increase in assigned traffic on the A720 Edinburgh Bypass as noted above; there is also a moderate reduction in accidents in Dalkeith associated with a reduction in traffic on local roads in this sector that is predicted to re-route via the capacity relieved A720.
A52