Stadium Road Neighbourhood Commercial Floor Space Strategy June 1St, 2018

University of British Columbia

Stadium Road Neighbourhood Commercial Floor Space Strategy June 1st, 2018

1332.0334.01

550 - 1090 Homer Street, Vancouver, BC V6B 2W9 | T: 604.235.1701

Contact: Justin M. Barer, M.Pl, MCIP, RPP T: 604.235.1701 [email protected] urbansystems.ca

This report is prepared for the sole use of University of British Columbia Campus and Community Planning. No representations of any kind are made by Urban Systems Ltd. or its employees to any party with whom Urban Systems Ltd. does not have a contract. Copyright 2018.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... I

1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1

2 RETAIL MARKET TRENDS ...... 2 2.1 Canadian & BC Retail Sector Trends ...... 2 2.2 Structural Changes in Retail Landscape ...... 4

3 MARKET SEGMENTS FOR STADIUM ROAD ...... 13 3.1 UBC Point Grey Campus ...... 13 3.2 University Endowment Lands (UEL)...... 17

4 SITE ASSESSMENT & CONTEXT ...... 21 4.1 Location & Intent ...... 21 4.2 Local Context - Neighbourhoods & Facilities ...... 22 4.3 Local Context Implications ...... 26 4.4 Competitive Retail Areas ...... 27 4.5 Context Summary & Implications ...... 45

5 COMMERCIAL MARKET DEMAND AT STADIUM ROAD NEIGHBOURHOOD ...... 47 5.1 Introduction ...... 47 5.2 Trade Area Delineation ...... 47 5.3 Trade Area Population & income ...... 49 5.4 Gross Retail Expenditures Forecast ...... 50 5.5 Net Retail Expenditures ...... 53

6 RETAIL-COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY ...... 56 6.1 Warranted Floor Area ...... 56 6.2 Commercial Lease Rates ...... 57 6.3 Tenant Mix Recommendations...... 58 6.4 Commercial Planning Considerations ...... 61 6.5 Lessons from Other Developments ...... 63

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Urban Systems has been retained by UBC Campus + Community Planning to prepare an analysis of the retail commercial development opportunity at Stadium Road Neighbourhood (SRN) on UBC’s Point Grey Campus. SRN is the seventh of eight planned neighbourhoods on campus. Encompassing 22.8 acres, at build-out it is expected to contain both a re-built 5,000 seat Thunderbird Stadium and 1.5 million square feet of residential floor space. The purpose of this assignment is to determine the extent of potential retail commercial opportunity at SRN given the expected growth of potential market segments.

TARGET MARKET SEGMENTS Future retail and service commercial at SRN will serve a variety of markets. These will include:

• Future SRN residents  estimated 3,800 at build-out

• Residents of nearby under-served neighbourhoods (Hawthorn Place, Hampton Place)

• Residents of nearby student housing (Thunderbird, Totem)

• Non-resident students, faculty and staff (particularly if new varsity facilities are also co- located with the new stadium, e.g. relocated strength and conditioning centre)

• University Endowment Lands (UEL) Residents

COMPETITIVE RETAIL ENVIRONMENT The size, mix and phasing of future commercial uses at SRN are considered in the context of competitive supply. Here we provide a brief summary of competitive supply on campus, in the UEL, and in Point Grey, Dunbar, West 4th Avenue and West Broadway.

On-Campus + UEL Supply • On-campus supply is primarily clustered at Wesbrook Village to the southeast, and along University Boulevard to the north (including retail and services in the Student Union Building)

• Wesbrook Village is home to 95,000 square feet of retail and services, plus 35,000 square feet of office. It is anchored by a 33,000 square foot Save-On Foods and a 10,000 square foot Shoppers Drug Mart. It is also home to the peninsula’s only BC Liquor outlet

• University Boulevard & SUB are home to a combined 61,000 square feet of retail and service commercial, with no vacancies. 75% of the space is comprised of food & beverage space

• UEL supply is located along University Boulevard at University Village and University Marketplace

• University Village / Marketplace contain a combined 65,000 square feet of retail and service commercial space, plus 18,100 square feet of office. Fast food accounts for 30% of floor area.

• The new Block F / Lelem development in the UEL is currently being constructed. At build- out it will contain a 30,000 square foot grocery-anchored commercial village

• There are another 63,500 square feet of retail and restaurant space around campus, including the book store, but excluding dining halls

• Within a 5-7 minute walk of SRN, the only notable services are two quick-serve restaurants and the concession located in Thunderbird Park. However, just beyond a 7-minute walk is Wesbrook Village

• Overall, the retail distribution at Point Grey Peninsula (on campus + UEL) is characterized by a strong bi-nodal distribution. Wesbrook in the south and the ‘academic core’ (along University Boulevard) in the north account for nearly 90% of total retail and service floor space on the peninsula. Furthermore, there is strong UBC planning policy direction to maintain West Wesbrook and University Boulevard as the main hubs of retail and service activity going forward.

West Side Vancouver Supply Retail and services in Vancouver’s west side neighbourhoods play a significant role in defining the extent of on-campus commercial opportunity. While retail along West 10th (Point Grey), West Broadway, Dunbar and West 4th are reasonably accessible from campus via car, bus or bike, the peninsula does remain relatively isolated from these commercial areas, which shapes both the need and opportunity for goods and services on campus. This is particularly the case for day-to-day convenience goods and services, along with restaurants and cafes.

By way of summary, the west side neighbourhood retail nodes of note for this study are as follows:

• Point Grey Village – 3 blocks along 10th Avenue between Tolmie and Discovery. Home to 224,000 square feet of retail and service floor area. The 30,000 square foot Safeway grocery anchor is expected to close permanently this year;

• West 4th Avenue – between Alma and Macdonald Street. Anchored by No Frills, BC Liquor and IGA. Home to approximately 290,000 square feet of retail and service commercial;

• West Broadway – between Alma and Macdonald Street. Contains nearly 480,000 square feet of retail and service commercial. Anchored in the east by a 50,000 square foot Safeway;

• Dunbar – comprised of 3 distinct nodes: north, around Dunbar & 16th; central, 5 blocks from King Edward to West 30th, and south, from 39th to 41st. Contains approximately 300,000 square feet of goods and services, including two grocery stores (Stong’s and Save-On), a Shoppers Drug Mart, a BC Liquor Store, and many service providers.

RETAIL & SERVICE COMMERCIAL DEMAND ANALYSIS

Approach • The retail demand analysis for SRN is conducted with the understanding that a future commercial node will function primarily as a neighbourhood-serving amenity, catering to the combined populations living, working, studying and playing in and around the neighbourhood.

• Consideration is also given to SRN’s unique position at the heart of UBC’s athletic facilities, as well as its proximity to both the Botanical Garden and UBC Farm.

• The SRN retail node’s size, mix and market positioning will be shaped by the growth trajectory of each population group, the unique spending profiles of each group, and the relative drawing power of SRN within the context of current and future on and off-campus competition.

• Net expenditure projections for SRN (i.e. the spending that can reasonably be expected to be captured on-site) are converted to warranted floor space, by category, through the application of both reasonable expenditure capture rates (based on the competitive context), and the conversion of ‘captured spending’ to floor space using standard performance metrics (sales per square foot per annum).

Supportable Floor Area & Tenant Mix Considerations • The analysis suggests an opportunity for a modestly-scaled, high-quality retail commercial node of approximately 50,000 square feet at SRN, with 15,000 square feet supportable within 5 years and nearly 40,000 square feet supportable within 10 years.

• This 50,000 square foot figure should be considered a reasonable ‘mid-point’ based on typical floorplates and sales performance metrics. It should be considered with a buffer of +/- 10,000 square feet.

• There should be flexibility and convertibility within the plan to account for changes in market conditions.

• Short-term tenant subsidies or other inducements may be required if having a populated village is desirable before a critical population mass has moved to the neighbourhood. There must be realistic expectations about phasing in tenants as the neighbourhood grows, with flexibility and creativity both in leasing arrangements and adaptability / convertibility of space

• The recommended tenant mix is as follows:

• Specialty retail grocery of at least 11,000 square feet, positioned to complement the offerings at Wesbrook

• Liquor store (privately operated), up to 4,000 square feet

• Pharmacy/personal care provider, either stand-alone, or embedded within the specialty grocer, up to 4,000 square feet

• 1 or 2 small general retail outlets (~2,000 square feet)

iii

• Up to 10,000 square feet of quick-serve food & beverage. This should be a mix of chains (local and national) and independents

• Signature bakery/café (1,000-2,000 square feet), that also offers space for gathering and studying

• Signature restaurant / pub (2,000+ square feet), geared around sports, local foods (with connection to UBC Farm), and local beers / spirits

• 10,000 to 15,000 square feet of service commercial, including personal, professional, health, recreational and financial services

• Potential opportunity for farmer’s market and small canning/bottling facility

• Less frequent, event-driven high demand periods (e.g. game days, other events at Thunderbird Stadium) can be served well through mobile vending and movable kiosks. These vendors could be brought in to serve the area for events, and moved elsewhere at lower demand periods.

• Consider opportunities for outdoor fitness as a neighbourhood amenity, possibly linking to trail connections

• Explore non-retail opportunities oriented around UBC’s Varsity programs and history of sport at UBC. For instance, having Sport BC develop a presence in the neighbourhood in the form of office or presentation space would bring additional vibrancy and patronage to the neighbourhood

• Additional retail, service and food & beverage space beyond the 50,000 square feet identified in this analysis could be warranted if there are additional major traffic generators co-located with the future Village (beyond what exists today, and the intended re-built Thunderbird Stadium)

• One notable example of a co-located facility, which would drive additional patronage to retailers and service providers, is a new varsity strength and conditioning centre.

• The current centre (Laycoe Varsity Weight Room at Doug Mitchell Centre) reportedly serves a client base of 6,500+ athletes, with programs running year-round. The centre is under-sized, at 4,600 square feet.

• A new 15,000 to 20,000 square foot centre at SRN would bring significant additional traffic to retailers and service providers, and this traffic is not directly tied to the academic calendar.

Commercial Planning Considerations • Create presence along East Mall, located toward the north-east corner. This will maximize visibility to pass-by traffic and users of Thunderbird Park, while also creating ease of access for on-site and nearby residents.

• Create strong wayfinding along West 16th Avenue to alert traffic to the presence of SRN commercial.

• Maximize integration with the new Thunderbird Stadium. This could include outward facing retail, service and restaurant space built into the outer stadium walls.

• Retail should be oriented around a multi-use plaza, which could also serve as a point of entry to the new stadium and as part of a strong connection across East Mall to Thunderbird Place. The plaza should be programmable to allow for outdoor seating and both formal and informal gatherings.

• Seek opportunities in the longer term to create better multi-modal connectivity across West 16th Avenue between Wesbrook Place and Stadium Road.

1 INTRODUCTION

Stadium Road Neighbourhood (“SRN”) is to be the seventh of eight planned neighbourhoods at UBC’s Point Grey Campus identified in the UBC Land Use Plan. The neighbourhood area encompasses a 22.8 acre parcel bound by West 16th Avenue, Stadium Road, East Mall, and the UBC Botanical Garden.

The SRN plan area contains the existing Thunderbird Stadium; in any future planning scenario, the stadium is to be demolished and replaced with a new 5,000 seat stadium somewhere in the plan area. Other elements of the neighbourhood are to include:

• 1.5 million square feet of residential floor area, with a target build-out population of over 3,800 residents. 40% of housing units are to be rental and non-market

• Up to 5 high-rises, with the remainder of units housed in 6-storey buildings

• Linkage between Main Mall and the future greenway to Pacific Spirit Park

Beyond housing and the new stadium, SRN can contribute to the development of a more complete and connected South Campus by including a neighbourhood commercial centre. This centre will act as a community amenity for future residents of SRN, other nearby neighbourhoods, nearby student residences, and students utilizing on-site and nearby university infrastructure (e.g. sports facilities). It will provide food & beverage services, convenience shopping, personal services, and a place for gathering and socializing.

The primary purpose of this study is to identify the extent of potential retail commercial opportunity at Stadium Road Neighbourhood, given the existing and emerging commercial context (both on and off campus), and the expected growth on campus in the coming 10 to 20 years. This study provides:

• a detailed overview of projected growth in the UBC Neighbourhoods, as well as the student body and other on-campus populations;

• a thorough assessment of the competitive retail context, both current and emerging, on and off campus;

• a retail demand analysis for Stadium Road Neighbourhood that accounts for both planned growth and competitive context;

• recommendations for the extent of retail-commercial floor area at Stadium Road Neighbourhood, by major category;

• an illustrative example of market supportable tenant types;

• key considerations for retail location and orientation.

The conclusions and recommendations presented in this report are based on research and analysis conducted by Urban Systems between February and April of 2018, including multiple site visits, competitive area tours, desktop research, and quantitative demand projections.

2 RETAIL MARKET TRENDS

This section provides an overview of notable market trends and highlights at the national, provincial and local level. While not all of these trends will be of direct applicability or relevance to retail planning at Stadium Road Neighbourhood, overall, they paint a picture of the rapidly evolving retail landscape that must be considered when thinking about both retail design and programming in a new neighbourhood.

2.1 CANADIAN & BC RETAIL SECTOR TRENDS

2.1.1 Canadian Trends

Over the 10-year period from 2007 to 2017, the retail sector continued to play an increasingly important role in the Canadian marketplace, given its contribution to the economy and its impact on consumption. In 2011, the Canadian retail sector generated nearly $457 billion in sales activity, accounting for 5.46% of national GDP and employing nearly 12% of the workforce.1 By 2017, the retail sector generated over $587 billion in sales, up nearly 29% in 6 years, accounting for 5.51% of GDP.

Annual Retail Sales in Canada, 2005 to 2017 (x1,000,000) Unadjusted 700,000 587,508 600,000 550,793 510,478 523,922 468,819 485,507 500,000 438,958 456,730 412,597 427,956 415,716 400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

______1 Statistics Canada. CANSIM, table 379-0031; Statistics Canada, Table 282-0008.

2.1.2 British Columbia Trends

Retail sales growth in British Columbia has been robust in recent years, growing at an average of 7.5% per year between 2014 to 2017. The 2016-2017 period saw nearly 10% unadjusted growth in retail sales, or 8.3% on a per-capita basis.

Annual Per-Capita Retail Sales , British Columbia, 2005 to 2017 20,000

18,000 17,500 16,000

14,000 14,420 12,000 11,769 10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

- 2005 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Annual Retail Sales in British Columbia, 2007 to 2017 (x1,000,000) $90,000 $84,329 $80,000 $76,885 $71,614 $70,000 $67,001 $61,343 $63,053 $57,794 $58,251 $60,090 $60,000 $56,936 $55,288 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

The main drivers of strong retail sales growth in British Columbia in the last 4 years are the combination of steady population growth (1.3% per annum over the last 3 years), robust employment growth (1.7% per year since 2011, 3.4% per year since 2016), and increasing consumer confidence driven by strong employment and real estate price appreciation.

BC Population, Retail Employment and Retail Sales - Year over Year Change, 2006 to 2017 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Population 4,499,139 4,546,290 4,590,081 4,646,462 4,694,699 4,757,658 4,817,160 Pop Growth 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% Retail Sector 276,500 265,400 278,500 277,500 268,000 280,200 290,400 Employment Retail Employment -3.8% -4.0% 4.9% -0.4% -3.4% 4.6% 3.6% Growth Retail Sales (x1,000) $ 60,089,857 $ 61,342,525 $ 63,053,475 $ 67,001,144 $ 71,613,726 $ 76,885,191 $ 84,301,194 Retail Sales Growth 3.2% 2.1% 2.8% 6.3% 6.9% 7.4% 9.6% Retail Sales Growth Per 2.4% 1.0% 1.8% 5.0% 5.8% 5.9% 8.3% Capita BC Retail Sales per $ 217,323 $ 231,132 $ 226,404 $ 241,446 $ 267,215 $ 274,394 $ 290,293 Retail Employee

2.1.3 Metro Vancouver Trends

The Vancouver region is experiencing rapid retail expansion, driven by strong population growth and consumer confidence. Statistics Canada has indicated that retail stores in the Vancouver CMA increased sale from $22.2 billion in 2004 to $36 billion in 2016, a 62% increase over 12 years. During the same period, the Vancouver CMA’s population grew from 2.1 million to 2.6 million, an increase of 19.4%. Population projections suggest that the Vancouver CMA could see a further 26.4% increase to 2036, which will increase the need for significant new and expanded shopping nodes. This would include major mall reinventions such as Brentwood, Lougheed, Oakridge, Guildford, and Coquitlam.

As of 2016 Metro Vancouver was home to 209 shopping centres, predominantly neighbourhood centres (38%). The region is also home to 4 super-regional malls, the most recent being the 1.2 million square foot Tsawwassen Mills on Tsawwassen First Nation Lands. That mall has performed relatively poorly since inception, with reported sales of under $350 per square foot.2 Although this is an improvement from its sub-$300 sales reported in late 2017, it is still well below the Mills malls in Airdrie, AB ($660 psf) and Vaughn, ON ($770 psf).

Metro Vancouver had 9,429 retail stores in 2016, of which 23% were in one of the seven shopping centre types.3 The remaining 77% of retailers were operating in either stand-alone stores, or located in neighbourhood centres, convenience centres or in street retail districts.

2.2 STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN RETAIL LANDSCAPE

______2 http://www.ivanhoecambridge.com/-/media/imported/website/properties/22101/property-fact-sheet/property-factsheet.pd 3 Super regional, regional, community, power , retail mixed-u se, retail hybrid, lifestyle centre.

The retail landscape in Canada is going through a period of rapid transition, which is reshaping the way retailers operate and interact with consumers.

• Long a prime anchor tenant for malls coast-to-coast, Sears Canada’s closure is having ripple effects throughout the retail sector as millions of square feet of space are being released back to the market. Some of this space is likely to be taken by off-price retailers, which are growing in market prominence, punctuated this year by the pending and highly anticipated arrival of Nordstrom Rack

• Another significant disruptor will be legalized marijuana, the retail distribution of which is still in discussion, but is likely to have still unforeseen impacts on the landscape of retail, from the neighbourhood node up to the super-regional agglomeration

• Additionally, major online players like Amazon continue to make major moves (e.g. purchase of Whole Foods) that will see them further their gains in market share and shift their interaction with bricks-and-mortar spaces across the country in the coming years.

Following are some of the key trends that have been, and will likely continue to be, significant when considering the near and longer-term future of the Canadian retail landscape.

2.2.1 International Market Entrants

Major international players have been opening in the Canadian market with increasing frequency, which is forcing domestic players to adapt. More than 50 international brands entered Canada in 2017 alone, and many of these are planning significant expansions in the coming years.

One of the more significant of these is MINISO, the value-priced, Japanese-inspired Chinese variety retailers, which plans to have 100 stores across Canada by end of 2018, and 500 by 2021. It has been identified as a major competitor and disruptor for Canadian dollar store staple Dollarama, positioning itself as a “luxe dollar store” offering unique products and higher quality goods. Unlike the traditional discount store, MINISO typically operates in smaller footprints (2,700 to 5,000 sq.ft.), and targets younger demographics (under 34). This makes it a likely tenant for smaller community and neighbourhood shopping centres (i.e. centres of 80,000 to 120,000 sq.ft.)

Other notable international brands that are continuing Canadian expansion include:

• Uniqlo – Japanese fast-fashion retailer. Typically 30,000 to 35,000 square feet

• Hunter Boots – expanding stand-alone locations, Typical size is under 3,000 square feet

• Vistaprint – Dutch e-commerce brand, targeting small business.

• Mujosh – Hong-Kong based eyeware brand.

• Oomomo – a Japanese variety store concept. Typically under 5,000 square feet

• Kohler – US-based kitchen and bathroom fixture brand. 5,000 square foot floor plate

• Ollie Quinn – value-priced UK-based eyeware retailer.

• Bailey Nelson – Australian eyeware retailer.

• Footaction – US-based shoe store

• Filson – US-based heritage fashion brand. Under 3,000 square feet

• SoulCycle – US-based fitness studio.

• Style Encore – a US-based women’s resale retail concept, operating under a franchise model.

2.2.2 Brand-Owned Stores

An emerging trend is brands having their own stores. Notable examples of this include Arc’teryx, Canada Goose, Moose Knuckle, and Hunter Boots. This is likely to become a more significant trend in the coming years, as brands seek to go direct to consumer, with many finding they can realize greater profits by distributing in this manner rather than through multi-brand retailers.

2.2.3 Off-Price Retailers

As noted above, off-price retailers have been expanding rapidly in Canada in recent years, a trend that will be punctuated by the much-anticipated arrival of Nordstrom Rack to the Canadian market in 2018. Some question if off-price is reaching a point of market saturation. Other believe the Canadian market has plenty of room for off-price growth, and the availability of former Sears spaces (and Zellers/Target spaces) at major malls across the country creates a perfect opportunity for rapid expansion.

• TJX (Winners, Marshals, Home Sense) plans to continue expansion in Canada, approaching 100 locations for each banner by end of 2018

• Hudson’s Bay’s off-price “Saks Off 5th” entered Canada in spring 2016 and now operates 16 stores. It plans to have 25 by end of 2018

• Nordstrom Rack plans to have 10-15 stores in Canada within the next 5 years.

2.2.4 Grocery Market Flux

The Canadian retail grocery landscape is in a state of flux, as key players jockey for position and margins continue to tighten. With e-commerce on the rise in the grocery sector (recently punctuated by Costco’s announcement of plans for online purchases and home delivery of groceries in Canada), and greater competition from mass merchants and food service companies, traditional grocery stores are seeing their market shares drop, and are feeling the pressure to reinvent themselves quickly.

• Traditional grocers’ share of retail food sales in Canada has declined to 75% in 2017, from 85% in 2007, due in part to growth in market share from mass merchants such as Costco and Walmart

• Sobeys intends to expand its value-priced FreshCo banner into Western Canada

• ‘Click and collect’ grocery is becoming more popular and is likely to continue expanding. This will be fuelled in part by Amazon’s acquisition of Whole Foods

• The trend of grocery stores with sit-down dining areas and ready-to-eat / take-out meals continues to become more ubiquitous, fuelled by consumers’ needs for convenience and high-quality meals. The fastest-growing meal segment in 2017 was ready-prepared meals at grocers and meal kit companies.

2.2.5 Shopping Mall Evolution

Enclosed shopping centres have been a staple of the Canadian retail landscape since their emergence and rise in the 1960s and 1970s. While Canada has nearly 40% less shopping mall space per capita than the United States, Canadian malls on average have attracted higher sales per square foot of leasable space. Since matching the sales output of their US counterparts in 2004 (at approximately $380 USD per square foot), Canadian malls have largely outperformed those in the US by an increasing margin. As of 2015, Canadian malls earned approximately $562 USD per square foot, compared to $466 USD for malls south of the border.

Metro Vancouver is home to 3 of Canada’s top 10 performing malls, and takes 2 of the top 3 positions as of 2016:

• Oakridge Shopping Centre (2nd): $1,537/sf

• Pacific Centre (3rd): $1,523/sf

• Metropolis at Metrotown (8th): $1,035/sf

Despite their relative financial success, the growth of enclosed shopping malls in Canada has been curtailed by a number of factors including:

• Limits on land for new centres in established markets

• Increasing desire amongst many retailers to diversity locations and retail outlets

• Increased desire amongst consumers for less sterile and more ‘authentic’ shopping experiences

Canadian cities have increasingly reduced their allocation of urban lands for new shopping centres. Since 1990, there have only been 3 super-regional enclosed centres built in Canada: Vaughan Mills (2004), CrossIron (2009), and Tsawwassen Mills (2016). The latter was constructed on Tsawwassen First Nation lands.

In lieu of new regional and super-regional malls on greenfield sites, many existing shopping centres are renovating and expanding within their allocated land base, expanding both outward into their parking fields and upwards, while in many cases adding significant on-site multi-family residential in the form of low-rise apartments, point towers, and townhouses. Two of the more notable examples of enclosed mall reinvention in Canada are in Burnaby:

• Brentwood Town Centre:

o Expansion of shopping mall retail area from 500,000 to 1.1 million square feet

o Parks, plazas and an amphitheatre

o Entitlements for 2.5m additional square feet of commercial (office, retail, service)

o 11 residential towers, 6,000+ homes (4.1m square feet) • Lougheed Town Centre

o 40-acre shopping centre site slated for redevelopment with 23 high-rise residential towers

o Redevelopment of shopping centre into open-air, galleria format

2.2.6 Strip Malls

Grocery-anchored and unanchored strip malls are characterized by one or two-level structures set back from the street, behind a parking field. A variety of retailers and restaurants are usually found on the first floor, and service/office space may be located above. These strip commercial plazas, ubiquitous across most suburban (and urban) communities in Canada, are becoming less relevant in today’s retail landscape as consumers’ preferences shift, and as land constraints drive up urban real estate values, making these squat, asphalt-dominated centres prime examples of underperforming real estate primed for redevelopment with higher-density mixes of uses.

Many strip centres take longer to redevelop than some would like, as in many cases they remain profitable cash-flowing assets within investors’ portfolios. Strip malls may also play notable roles in the retail landscape by virtue of the fact that they are often older, flexible spaces with lower rents. Despite their aesthetic, strip malls offer affordable, easily reconfigurable spaces that allow small, start-up businesses and artisans to gain a foothold in the marketplace. In this way, strip malls (particularly in the suburbs) can be the first rung on the economic mobility ladder for entrepreneurs. Some thus see the strip mall’s role today as equivalent to the old warehouse and market districts of inner cities before those spaces were (and are) reconfigured as high-end condos, shops and restaurants (e.g. Yaletown).

Figure 1: 988 West Broadway, Formerly a 7-Eleven-anchored strip centre

2.2.7 Power Centres

As enclosed centres have fallen from favour since the 1990s, they have been replaced by large format big box stores, power centres, and power nodes.4 There are over 600 power centres in Canada.

The rise of power centres and associated retail can be traced to a number of factors, including:

o Influx of US big box retailers in the 1990s (e.g. Home Depot, Wal-Mart)

o Readiness of municipalities to rezone industrial lands for retail development, or permit large format retail within industrial zones

o Suburbanization of retail functions and availability of large sites

o Planning policies that placed few barriers to big box developers Big box retail has offered a lower-cost form of retail development, meeting the needs of retailers to accrue economies of scale in operation, and consumer demand for price, product, selection, and service.

The era of big box retail and power centre began to wane in the early 00’s, and the decline of power centres has sped up in the last 5 years. This coincides with the slow but steady rebirth of the main-

______4 Big Box: retail outlets that are typically 3 or more times larger than comparable stores. Definition varies by sector. Power Centre: three or more big box retailers with shared parking and ancillary uses. Power Node: one power centre with additional big box or other power centre/malls within a 1-kilometre radius, typically centred at a major intersection.

street and main-street style shopping environments (e.g. lifestyle centres and hybrid shopping centres/plazas/piazzas). While power centres are still being constructed (e.g. Tsawwassen Commons by Property Development Group), in many cases the larger format stores are now being integrated into more visually appealing and pedestrian-accessible environments. A longer-term decline of power centres as the go-to retail forma is also a function of the revisiting of the bricks-and- mortar strategies by many traditional big box tenants, a function of broader reshaping of the retail environment and how retailers interact with their real estate brought on by the rapid growth of e- commerce and omni-channel retailing.

2.2.8 Omni-Channel Retail

Omni-channel retailing is a concept that describes the multiple access points connecting shoppers and retail products, as well as the growing influence of digital activities on these relationships. The ways of researching, purchasing, receiving and returning products are now more diverse and connected than ever. A customer may choose from a variety of methods for conducting research, purchasing products, receiving products, and returning products. The result has been retailers of all shapes and sizes working to integrate these various physical and digital channels into their business and logistics operations.

It is only in the last 5-7 years that the concept of omni-channel has fully emerged and become mainstreamed. Mobile technologies such as smartphones and tablets have been a crucial enabler of the rapid growth in omni-channel, as online shopping became accessible nearly anywhere and anytime. Online platforms supporting omni-channel retailing (websites, mobile aps, digital payment) have also improved and become more widely accepted. Retailers over the last several years have increased their online product offering and operational capacity.

In Canada, there are several trends supporting omni-channel retailing growth:

• Demographics: online shopping propensity is highest amongst those under 34, particularly for clothing, accessories and media. As this cohort continues to age, the population will be increasingly adept at conducting retail transactions online.

• E-Commerce: online retail sales in Canada lag the United States, but double-digit growth has been recorded each of the last 10 years. Total retail e-commerce sales in Canada accounted for 7.3% of total retail sales in 2017 ($38.74 billion), up from 5.8% in 2015. E- commerce sales are projected to account for 10% of total retail sales by 2020, projected at $55.78 billion.

• Increasing E-Commerce Investment from Retailers: many large and small retailers have shifted their expansion plans away from physical stores towards omni-channel integration and technology, hoping to benefit from a fast-growing market segment. The effect has been a market that is increasingly proficient with omni-channel activities, and the slow erosion of some of the historic barriers to omni-channel growth such as insufficient web presence, inventory, and infrastructure support and shipping / logistics costs.

• Mobile Technology Proliferation: research and purchases through smartphones and tablets is rising annually and has helped expand omni-channel capabilities. While the majority of purchasing is still done from computers, mobile technology supports omni-channel through other means such as mapping, research, price comparisons, and interactive shopping.

The growth of omni-channel retailing has had, and will continue to have, a noticeable and growing effect on retail property:

• Physical stores and websites are together emerging as the front-of-house access point for retail, while back-of-house inventories are being stored and dispersed through logistics points including storerooms and distribution centres.

• Cost efficiencies brought by omni-channel and more purposeful retail trips suggest that some retailers no longer need the number or size of stores they previously did to generate certain sales volumes. Retailers can now scale their store sizes and numbers. An example of this is the emergence of ‘urban format’ and satellite stores from brands that were once exclusively big boxes in power centres (e.g. Canadian Tire, Urban Brick, Best Buy Mobile, Ikea fulfillment centres).

• The right-sizing of stores leads to potentially reduced space demand, particularly for retailers with significant store counts in overlapping market areas. As retailers reduce store counts, they typically keep high performing locations.5

• Omni-channel retailing is also generating new types of retailers that need physical store sites

 Online-only retailers are opening physical stores in high-performance markets and locations to enhance their e-commerce business. Notable examples include Amazon, Frank & Oak, Clearly Contacts, Casper, and Indochino,

 Non-traditional retailers are opening retail locations in major markets to serve as access points for customers wanting to know more about the brand

 Pop-up concepts are taking advantage of this phenomenon and driving demand for retail space, particularly in categories of art, clothing and accessories.

• Some retailers are building on-site product pick-up locations for on line orders to drive more visits and alleviate shipping costs. Omni-channel retail has and will have a variety of implications for the role that they physical retail property will play

• Bricks and mortar stores are not becoming obsolete; they are instead becoming a part of the omni-channel retail system. All retailers, from multi-national brands down to local independents are re-thinking and re-imagining what the store can be

______5 Wal Mart store sizes decreased from over 70,000 sf in 2007 to under 60,000 sf by 2015. Average store sizes for Gap Inc. (Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic) fell from 12,500sf in 2009 to 10,500 sf by 2015.

• Regardless of retail category, undifferentiated products will have the most exposure to online sales, while products that are specialized and personalized will have less exposure

• One emerging strategy is for retailers to promote and curate a variety of independent brands at their stores, with each independently marketed and promoted

• It will become increasingly important that the in-store experience is tailored to the customers needs and wants, not just the desire to sell product. The store’s role is to augment the total value to the customer

• In-store technologies will become critical. Appropriate technologies will vary depending on the type of product being sold, and will change rapidly

• Ongoing demand for retail space may be somewhat less than what has been seen in the past, a prospect that will impact new development and certain property segments

• Retail properties will increasingly be aligned around one of the following formats:

 “experience” (upscale, leisure, browsing, entertainment)

 “convenience” (quick access and service)

 “function” (essential items and similar products)

• In an omni-channel landscape, the strongest retailers will be those with good branding, strong websites, and integration of products between stores and websites.

2.2.9 High Streets and Independent Retailers

With changing demographics and the introduction of omni-channel retailing, large format retailers have seen what many believe is a seismic shift in the shopping behaviours of customers. A generational shift is underway, with the fundamental needs of households starting to evolve. As part of the retail landscape reorientation to categories of experience, convenience and function, many shopping centre properties are looking to redevelop and reimagine themselves in terms of maximizing the customer experience.

Within a landscape that is at a major inflection point, strong traditional retail streets are experiencing a renaissance. People want to shop in main street environments, more retailers want to be there, and the ‘right-sizing’ of stores makes main streets in high-traffic areas a must for more retailers.

Small, independent businesses account for the majority of firms operating in Canada. Together, they contribute more than 30% to Canada’s GDP and employ nearly 50% of the labour force. Retail represents the largest segment of small businesses, with more than 143,000 small businesses (under 100 employees).

3 MARKET SEGMENTS FOR STADIUM ROAD

In this section, we provide an overview of the current populations and population growth trajectories of the various market segments that will likely be patrons for retail and service commercial at Stadium Road Neighbourhood. These market segments include:

• UBC neighbourhood residents

• Residents in student housing nearby

• Non-resident students, faculty and staff

• University Endowment Lands Residents

3.1 UBC POINT GREY CAMPUS

3.1.1 Current Populations

A primary market segments for on-campus retail are UBC students, staff, faculty, residents and visitors. Between September and April, there are over 82,000 staff, faculty, students and residents on campus. Amongst the 55,200 students, over 21% (or 11,795) reside on campus in one of the 16 student housing facilities. There are also more than 12,500 residents living in 6 on-campus neighbourhoods as of 2017.

In addition to the above groups, thousands of people arrive on campus each year for a variety of reasons, including use of facilities (e.g. Aquatics Centre, sports fields), visits to museums, cultural events, and hospital visits.

Figure 2: UBC Population Groups, 2017

Student 12,529 Housing Beds , 11,795 5,003 9,550 55,200

Students Staff Faculty Residents

3.1.2 Population Projections

STUDENTS The student headcount has increased at an average annual rate of 2.1% per year over the last seven years, with growth of over 2.8% per year in the last 3 years. UBC’s projections identify a likely growth rate of 2% per year going forward. The student headcount is expected to reach over 67,000 by 2027 and 82,000 by 2037.

Figure 3: UBC Student Head-Count Projection

100,000 88,786 90,000 80,000 70,000 82,024 55,200 60,000 67,288 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

The population of students living in UBC residences is also expected to increase. The campus bed count is projected to grow by 56% over the coming 18 years, reaching 18,396 by 2035. This will allow for the proportion of total students living in student residences to remain within the 21%-24% range over the next 25 years.

Figure 4: UBC Student Headcount Projection – Student Housing and Other

100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 -

Student Housing Population Other Students

FACULTY & STAFF The staff and faculty headcounts have grown in recent years (though not at the same rate as the student population). Each of these segments is projected to grow at 1% per year going forward.

Figure 5: UBC Faculty and Staff Head-Count Projections

14,000

12,000 11,653 12,126 10,000 10,549 9550 8,000

6,000 6,352 5,526 6,105 4,000 5,003

2,000

Faculty Staff

UBC NEIGHBOURHOODS The current resident population of 12,500 living in 6 UBC neighbourhoods represents approximately 40% of the anticipated build-out population for UTown. By 2037, on-campus neighbourhoods are expected to house over 27,000 residents; that figure is projected to be 31,500 by 2041, spread across eight neighbourhoods. This equates to an average annual growth rate of 3.9%.

Figure 6: UBC Neighbourhood Resident Population Projection

35,000

30,000 31,520 25,000 27,027

20,000

15,000

12,529 10,000

5,000

15 Table 1 below provides a snapshot of the distribution of current and future residents, by neighbourhood. Of the additional 19,000 residents expected to call UBC home over the next 25 years, 44% will reside in Wesbrook Place (+8,400). The balance will go to Acadia East (6,600, 35%), Stadium (3,800, 20%), and University Boulevard (180, 1%).

Table 1: UBC Neighbourhood Resident Population, 2017 and Build-Out UBC Campus Neighbourhoods Population 2017 Build-Out Future Anticipated Neighbourhood Population Population Growth Growth Period Wesbrook Place 5,513 13,891 8,378 Present to 2030 Hampton Place 2,192 2,192 0 Hawthorn Place 1,771 1,771 0 Chancellor Place 2,134 2,134 0 East Campus 722 722 0 University Boulevard 196 376 180 Stadium Road Neighbourhood 0 3,833 3,833 2023 to 2028 Acadia East 0 6,600 6,600 2030 to 2041 Source: UBC Campus & Community Planning Note: Stadium and Acadia are subject to confirmation in a neighbourhood planning process

3.2 UNIVERSITY ENDOWMENT LANDS (UEL)

3.2.1 Current Population

In addition to the residents living in the on-campus neighbourhoods, there are residents living on Point Grey Peninsula within the unincorporated University Endowment Lands (UEL). A fact sheet published by the BC Ministry of Community, Sport and Cultural Development in January 2017 indicated a 2015 UEL population of 4,000 residents.6 However, an assessment using GIS and Statistics Canada’s 2016 Census data shows a 2016 population of just 2,640 residents.7

Figure 7: Jurisdictional Boundaries of UEL on Point Grey Peninsula

______6 As per 2017 UEL Factsheet Series #1, available online at: http://www.cscd.gov.bc.ca/lgd/UEL/library/mcscd_fact_sheet1_uel_governance_present_past.pdf 7 2016 Census Snapshot, derived using Sitewise mapping software.

3.2.2 Population Projections

The most significant new growth area in the UEL is the 21.4-acre site within “Area D” located along University Boulevard, bounded by Acadia Road, Toronto Road, and Ortona Avenue. This site, known as Block F or “Lelem”, is a master-planned, mixed-use community developed by the Musqueum Capital Corporation that received its zoning entitlements in 2016.8 The master plan calls for a mix of housing types including townhouses, low and mid-rise apartments, and four 18-storey towers, which together will house approximately 2,500 residents. The site is also expected to have up to 30,000 square feet of commercial space, including a small grocery store. Development is underway.

Figure 8: Block F (Lelem) Master Plan

The other notable area of near-term future growth potential in the UEL is the 30-acre balance of “Area D” outside of the Lelem development, shown in Figure 9 below. This area is currently developed with four-storey residential buildings (some with heritage value) and housed a population of 1,640 residents in 2016 spread across about 500 rental units and 600 strata units. It has been reported that the BC Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing has sought bids to for a neighbourhood plan for this area to create the framework for future intensification.9 The nature of future redevelopment is unknown, but would likely add hundreds, if not thousands, of additional residents to the area.

______8 Musqueum Capital Corporation has partnered with Polygon for the first development phase. 9 http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/ubc-endowment-lands-density-study-redevelopment

Figure 9: UEL Area D – Developed Area (Red) and Block F/Lelem (Green)

Area D – Future Neighbourhood Plan

Area D: Block F

Other notable longer-term growth areas in the UEL are:

• “Block K”:

o 37-acre parcel located along SW Marine Drive, adjacent to the Shaughnessy Golf and Country Club

o Acquired in fee-simple by Musqueum in 2008

o Will likely be added to Musqueum IR #2 • University Golf Course (146 acres): will remain golf course until at least 2083.

With the nature of future development in Area D (outside of Lelem) unknown, any population projection for the UEL is entirely speculative. If that area is fully redeveloped at the same density as Block F, its population would increase from 1,640 to about 3,500 at build-out.

If we assume that over the next 25 years the UEL will see (1) the build-out of Lelem (by 2026), (2) the intensification of the balance of Area D, and (3) very modest growth in other UEL neighbourhoods (assume 0.25% per year growth rate), the population forecast to 2041 is as follows:

• 4,150 residents by 2021

• 5,676 residents by 2031

• 6,701 residents by 2041

Figure 10: UBC Endowment Lands Population Projection to 2041

8,000

7,000

1,001 6,000 988 976 5,000 964

4,000 3,200 2,700 952 2,200 1,700 3,000

1,700 2,000 940

2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 1,000 1,700 1,500

- - 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Area D - Block F/Lelem Area D - Balance Rest of UEL

4 SITE ASSESSMENT & CONTEXT

4.1 LOCATION & INTENT

The Stadium Road Neighbourhood (SRN) plan area is a 22.8-acre future neighbourhood on UBC’s Point Grey campus, encompassing approximately 2% of UBC’s 994-acre campus area. The plan area is bounded by East Mall, 16th Avenue, Stadium Road, and the UBC Botanical Garden.

Figure 11: UBC Land Use Plan and Stadium Neighbourhood Planning Area

Based on the current thinking around development configuration, SRN is likely to be a neighbourhood of over 3,800 residents, with anticipated build-out within 10 years (2028). Neighbourhood infrastructure is likely to be installed in five to seven years, followed by the first phase of development.

SRN will contain a new 5,000 seat Thunderbird Stadium, which will play host to varsity sport events and support high-performance athletics. The final location of the new stadium has yet to be determined but will likely be located either at the location of the existing stadium or abutting East Mall, across from UBC Baseball Turf. Regardless of its selected location, the new stadium will be more efficient than the current building, housed on a slightly smaller footprint. It will also be carefully integrated into the neighbourhood to both meet user needs and serve as an asset and amenity for the community.

One of the key principles that is guiding the neighbourhood planning process is the prioritization of “affordable living”. To that end, SRN will include forms and types of housing that are accessible to faculty, staff, and students.

This study is part of the broader planning process to determine the nature, extent and configuration of commercial space appropriate for inclusion in the neighbourhood, while keeping in mind the broader campus planning goals.10 Any future commercial should be appropriately scaled to serve the built-out and growing neighbourhoods in the immediate vicinity, as well as students, faculty, staff and users of Thunderbird Stadium and Thunderbird Park.

4.2 LOCAL CONTEXT - NEIGHBOURHOODS & FACILITIES

Across East Mall from the site is Thunderbird Park, home to a variety of UBC Varsity programs and athletic facilities including the National Soccer Development Centre, the UBC Baseball Training Centre, and the track & field oval. To the north of Thunderbird Park is the UBC Tennis Centre, Doug Mitchell Sports Centre, and BodyWorks Fitness Centre. All are an 8-10 minute walk from the northeast corner of SRN.

Across Stadium Road approximately 3-5 minutes by foot from Thunderbird Stadium is Hawthorn Place. This is a built-out neighbourhood of 709 residential units containing an estimated 1,771 residents.11 The dwelling mix consists of family housing (50%), faculty and staff rental housing (32%), and co-housing (18%).

Immediately to the Southeast of SRN, across West 16th Avenue, is University Hill Secondary School, a highly-regarded public school with over 800 students. To the east and south of the school is Wesbrook Place – the largest on-campus neighbourhood (and retail area), currently home to an estimated 5,500 residents, with projected build-out of nearly 14,000. The population includes students, faculty, staff, and the public. The retail and service area, centred along Wesbrook Mall, is home to over 95,000 square feet of retail space and 35,000 square feet of office space. It is built-out.

Other notable uses within a 5-10-minute walk from the corner of Stadium Road and Main Mall (i.e. NW corner of the study area) include:

• FP Innovations (directly across the street from the study area) – a not-for-profit company working on forestry sector competitiveness and sustainability • Old Barn Community Centre and Bean Around the World Coffee, near Larkin Drive and Thunderbird Boulevard (within Hawthorne Place neighbourhood)

______10 Of note is the goal of focusing most future commercial in either the Village Academic Core (University-oriented), and Wesbrook Village (resident-oriented). 11 As per data from UBC Campus & Community Planning

• UBC Botanical Garden • Totem Park Student Residence • Thunderbird Residence

Figure 12: Stadium Road Neighbourhood and Immediate Site Context

Thunderbird Residence

Totem Park Hawthorne Place Residence East Campus

Thunderbird Park

UBC Botanical Stadium Road Garden Hampton Place Neighbourhood

Wesbrook Place

Below are profiles of the neighbourhoods, residences and facilities immediately around Stadium Road Neighbourhood which will drive traffic to future Stadium Road retail.

4.2.1 Hawthorne Place

Hawthorne Place is a built-out neighbourhood immediately north of Stadium Road. It features a total of 709 residential units, of which 353 are family housing, 229 are faculty and staff rental housing, and 127 are faculty and staff co-development housing. The 2017 estimated population is 1,771.

Snapshot - Hawthorne Place (2017) Population 1,771 Population at Buildout 1,771 Population per Household 2.8 Avg. Household Income $88,820 Median Age 34 % Residents w/Bachelor Degree or Above 72.5% Sources: UBC Campus & Community Planning; 2016 Census (via Sitewise)

4.2.2 Wesbrook Place

Wesbrook Place is the largest on-campus neighbourhood (and retail area), currently home to 5,500 residents, with a projected build-out of nearly 14,000. Build-out is expected to occur by 2030. Of the additional 19,000 residents expected to call UBC home over the next 25 years, 44% of those (8,400 residents) will reside in Wesbrook Place. Half of all households in Wesbrook Place will be “work- study”, meaning that at least one member of the household must work or study at UBC.

Wesbrook Place contains a sizeable retail component, discussed in Section 3.3 below.

Snapshot - Wesbrook Place (2017) Population 5,513 Population at Buildout (target year) 13,891 (2030) Population per Household 2.5 Average Household Income $74,750 Median Age 32.5 % Residents w/Bachelor Degree or Above 61.7% Sources: UBC Campus & Community Planning; 2016 Census (via Sitewise)

4.2.3 Hampton Place

Hampton Place is a built-out neighbourhood at the northeast corner of West 16th Avenue and Wesbrook Mall. It was the first major family housing neighbourhood constructed at UBC, pre-dating the UBC Land Use Plan. It was the first major project of the UBC Properties Trust. It features 957 residential units in 11 buildings and is home to an estimated 2,192 residents.

Snapshot - Hampton Place (2017) Population 2,192 Population at Buildout (target year) 2,192 Population per Household 2.3 Average Household Income $122,000 Median Age 54.5 % Residents w/Bachelor Degree or Above 58.9% Sources: UBC Campus & Community Planning; 2016 Census (via Sitewise)

4.2.4 East Campus

East Campus, located between Wesbrook Mall and Fairview Avenue / Osoyoos Crescent, contains 276 residential units in a mixture of rental and family housing. The 2017 population is 722, and the neighbourhood is now built-out.

Snapshot - East Campus (2017) Population 722 Population at Buildout (target year) 722 Population per Household 2.2 Average Household Income $55,000 Median Age 28.6 % Residents w/Bachelor Degree or 59.4% Above Sources: UBC Campus & Community Planning; 2016 Census (via Sitewise)

4.2.5 Student Residences

TOTEM PARK STUDENT RESIDENCES Totem Park is a 9-building, 2,130 bed student housing complex located at the south-west end of Thunderbird Boulevard at West Mall. It is primarily geared to first-year students. It is occupied 8- months of the year, and has an annual vacancy rate of 2.5%. There is intent of future expansion for graduate/family-style housing, which will add another 1,000 beds between 2025 and 2030.

THUNDERBIRD RESIDENCES Thunderbird is a 5-building, year-round student residence located between Thunderbird Boulevard, West Mall, East Mall and Agronomy Road. It has a bed count of 634 in a variety of unit sizes ranging from studios to 4-bedroom units. It is geared toward independent living for singles and couples.

4.2.6 Neighbouring Facilities

Across East Mall from Stadium Road is the 18-hectare “Thunderbird Park,” a collection of turf and grass fields that play host to many UBC Varsity programs and athletic groups. Recent additions include two FieldTurf soccer pitches, a FieldTurf Baseball Diamond, and a new Track and Field Facility.

Within the Thunderbird Park area, there are also three notable indoor athletic facilities: (1) UBC Baseball Indoor Training Centres; (2) Gerald McGavin Rugby Centre; (3) National Soccer Development Centre.

Immediately to the north of Thunderbird Park is the Doug Mitchel Thunderbird Sports Centre (home to the High-Performance Training Centre), the UBC Tennis Centre, and the UBC BodyWorks Fitness Centre.

4.2.7 Other Notable Facilities & Programs

UBC’s strength training program, which currently operates in the 4,600 square foot Smith and Laycoe Varsity Weight Room at the Doug Mitchell Centre, is reportedly seeking a significant space expansion. According to facility staff, the facility is significantly undersized, but likely cannot expand at its current location.

A new strength training centre would require between 15,000 to 20,000 square feet of space to properly accommodate the growing client base. The current facility serves approximately 6,500 athletes, with programs that run year-round. Its clientele continues to grow, drawing both Olympic and professional athletes from across the country and beyond.

A 15,000 to 20,000 square foot strength training centre, with year-round programming and nationally-recognized staff, would be an ideal anchor tenant to co-locate with a new stadium and retail / commercial village at SRN. This co-location would have significant benefits for any future SRN retail and service commercial, as it would effectively create a built-in activity generator for surrounding businesses, with a growing client base, that is not directly tied to the academic calendar.

4.3 LOCAL CONTEXT IMPLICATIONS

Future retail and service commercial opportunities at Stadium Road Neighbourhood will hinge on the ability to attract and retain spending from a variety of population groups living, working, studying and playing at the neighbourhoods and facilities discussed above. All these population groups, their likely growth, their unique expenditure profiles, are the competitive areas vying for their spending, considered when conducting the retail demand projections contained in Section 5 of this report.

The extent of expenditures attracted to Stadium Road Neighbourhood depends to a large extent on the competitive retail climate (existing and emerging) within which the new development is taking place. Section 4.4 below provides an overview of this competitive retail context, which is considered both in the delineation of Stadium Road Neighbourhood trade areas, and the determination of reasonable spending capture rates from each of the surrounding areas.

4.4 COMPETITIVE RETAIL AREAS

This section profiles a range of retail-commercial nodes and clusters which will shape the size, mix and positioning of the retail opportunity at SRN. Each of these areas draws, and will continue to draw, patronage from students, residents and employees at UBC.

The competitive retail areas are considered in two categories:

1. On-Campus and University Endowment Lands (UEL) retail (Section 4.4.1)

2. West Side Vancouver retail nodes and corridors (Section 4.4.2)

4.4.1 On-Campus & UEL Retail Context

Figure 13 below highlights the immediate commercial context on Point Grey Peninsula, noting significant retail and service clusters both on campus and at the adjacent UEL. The commercial distribution is largely delineated in four nodes

1. University Boulevard and Student Union Building (SUB) “Academic Core 2. University Village/Marketplace

3. Wesbrook Village,

4. Block F / Lelem development (future supply)

Figure 13: Immediate Commercial Context

University Village / Marketplace Block F / Lelem University Blvd & SUB

Wesbrook Stadium Road Village Neighbourhood

WESBROOK VILLAGE Wesbrook Village is the most proximate commercial node to Stadium Neighbourhood and can be reached within 5-7 minutes by foot. It is home to over 95,000 square feet of retail and service commercial space and 35,000 square feet of office space. It is anchored by a 33,000 square foot Save-On Foods and a 10,000 square foot Shoppers Drug Mart. Other notable tenant categories include:

• Full service restaurants (7,000 sq.ft.)

• Quick-service restaurants (2,300 sq.ft.)

• Liquor (4,800 sq.ft.)

• Banks (4,000 sq.ft.)

• Service commercial / office space (7,000 sq.ft.)

• Vacant (4,100 sq.ft.)

As was noted in the Coriolis Consulting report of 2011, Westbrook Village is used primarily by permanent residents, and to a lesser extent by students living on campus (mostly coming to the grocery store).12 It has become the established south-campus retail node.

UNIVERSITY VILLAGE / MARKETPLACE Located one block east of Wesbrook Mall and University Boulevard, the University Village / Marketplace (University Village) is one of the oldest non-UBC operated commercial centres on the UEL. This commercial area has a variety of medium density residential buildings.

University Village contains approximately 65,000 square feet of retail and service commercial, and another 18,100 square feet of office space. Fast food (limited service) accounts for nearly 30% of the total non-office floor area, with another 7% going to full-service restaurants. The other notable categories are general retail (21,666 sq.ft., 33.2% of non-office total), and banks (7,5000 sq.ft., 12% of non-office total).

The overall retail mix is oriented primarily around neighbourhood convenience and restaurant food & beverage uses for students, student residents, on-site office workers, and UEL residents. There are 12 quick and full-serve restaurants, along with eight commercial / personal service providers including the Bank of Montreal. University Marketplace was previously tenanted by the only BC Liquor Store on campus; however, the BCL moved to a 4,800 square foot space in Wesbrook Village over 5 years ago.

The older 2-storey commercial components making up University Village (fronting University Boulevard) include a discount book store, drycleaner, bank, McDonald’s Japanese restaurant, and other local-serving uses.

Table 2: University Village / Marketplace Inventory Shops & Services Floor Area (Sq.ft.)

Full Service Restaurant 4,500

Quick Service Restaurant 18,828

Specialty Foods / Convenience 2,592

Supermarket 0

Bank 7,487

Personal Services 6,200

Retail 21,666

Pharmacy 4,000

______12 On-campus resident (staff, faculty, students, other) traffic to Wesbrook Village for groceries is likely to increase with the pending closure of the Safeway in Point Grey Village.

Other (office) 18,085

Vacant 0

Total 83,358

As “Area D” of the UEL will be subject to a new neighbourhood planning process in the coming years, it is likely that an expanded University Village/Marketplace will be part of the plan.

UNIVERSITY BOULEVARD AND STUDENT UNION BUILDING (SUB) The main retail and service cluster along University Boulevard is in the David Strangway Building and the new “Central” mixed-use building, both located between Wesbrook and East Mall. The Strangway building is anchored by Shoppers Drug Mart, and has 3 other units occupied by Mahoney & Son’s Pub, Scotia Bank, and Boulevard Coffee Roasting. The Central 6-storey mixed-use building has 6 commercial tenants, all in the full or quick-service restaurant categories: JJ Bean, Rain or Shine Ice Cream; Nori Bento & Udon; Joe Pizza; JamJar; and Bao Down.

The new Student Union Building (SUB) – opened in 2015 – is home to over 28,000 square feet of retail and service commercial, of which nearly 21,000 square feet (74%) is comprised of quick-serve food and beverage outlets. The mix includes 8 AMS-run food and drink eateries and nine student services including a hair salon, an optometry shop, a grocery store, and a mobile phone retailer.

Table 3: University Boulevard & Student Union Building Inventories Shops & Services University Blvd (sq.ft.) SUB (Sq.ft.)

Full Service Restaurant 4,977 0

Quick Service Restaurant 11,597 29,071

Specialty Foods / Convenience 0 2,000

Supermarket 0 0

Bank 2,888 0

Personal Services 0 0

Retail 0 6,010

Pharmacy 4,455 0

Other (office) 0 0

Vacant 0 0

Total 23,917 37,081

OTHER UBC RETAIL There is 63,500 square feet of other retail and restaurant space around campus. This includes merchandising space at the UBC Bookstore and coffee shops in Chancellor Place and Hampton Place. It excludes approximately 30,000 square feet of residence dining in UBC student residences.

Within a 5-7-minute walk of Stadium Road Neighbourhood, the only notable services are:

• Bean Around the World at Main Mall & Thunderbird Boulevard

• Tim Hortons in the Forest Sciences Centre

• Concession located in Thunderbird Park

BLOCK F / LELEM (PENDING) The 22-acre “Lelem” development in UEL is a master-planned, mixed-use community that received its zoning entitlements in 2016. The master plan calls for a mix of housing types including townhouses, low and mid-rise apartment buildings, and four 18-storey towers. The plan includes approximately 30,000 square feet of commercial space. The commercial tenant mix is likely to include a variety of specialty retail, restaurants and commercial services uses, including:

• A small local grocery store (~12,000 sq.ft.)

• 4-5 small eateries and cafes

• Specialty liquor

• Various personal and professional services

• Child care / early learning spaces / community space\

4.4.2 West Side Vancouver Retail

As was noted in the Coriolis study of 2011, UBC campus’ relative isolation and distance from the west side commercial centres in Dunbar, West 4th, West 10th, West Broadway and beyond creates opportunities for on-campus commercial nodes discussed above. This opportunity is now growing because of the increasing year-round, on-campus population along with the growth in student and staff-related spending.

To fully understand the extent of future opportunity for both Stadium Neighbourhood and the UBC campus more generally, Urban Systems has conducted a comprehensive retail inventory and mapping exercise for each of the notable west side retail nodes and corridors. These areas have been delineated as follows:

• Point Grey Village – West 10th between Tolmie and Discovery Streets

• West 4th Avenue, between Highbury and Bayswater Streets

• West Broadway, between Highbury and Macdonald Streets

• Dunbar Village – 3 segments along Dunbar Street

• West 16th to West 19th Avenues (Dunbar north)

• West King Edward to West 30th Avenues (Dunbar central)

• West 39th to West 41st, extending east on West 41st to Collingwood Street (Dunbar south).

Retail inventory data was compiled using a mixed-methods approach that included detailed GIS analysis, desktop reviews using Google Streetview, and walking surveys to fill in data gaps.

Figure 14: West Side Retail Nodes and Corridors

W. 4th Ave

Point Grey Village W. Broadway

Dunbar North SRN

Dunbar Central

Dunbar South

POINT GREY VILLAGE Point Grey Village along West 10th Avenue is comprised of a double-loaded retail corridor running 3 city blocks between Tolmie Street in the west and Discovery Street in the east. This area is situated just beyond the UBC Endowment Lands.

The retail and service mix in Point Grey Village is characterized mainly by full-service restaurants, health services, specialty food stores, and a Safeway supermarket. The Safeway supermarket is slated to close later this year, which will shift demand to other supermarkets in the area such as Stong’s on Dunbar, IGA on West 4th, Safeway at Broadway & Macdonald, Save-On Foods at 41st and Dunbar, and Save-On Foods at Wesbrook Village. Overall, Point Grey Village contains approximately 224,000 square feet of retail and service floor area.

Table 4: Point Grey Village Retail Mix

Point Grey Village Retail Mix (Sq. Ft.) Category Square Feet Convenience 48,102 Beer, wine, liquor stores 841 Specialty food stores 17,559 Supermarkets 29,702 F&B 42,647 Drinking (liquor primary) 3,168 Full-Serve restaurants 31,383 Quick-Serve restaurants 8,095 Comparison Goods 43,668 Clothing 11,389 Electronics 6,009 Furniture & Home Furnishings 2,202 Building Materials / Garden 4,119 General Merchandise 1,052 Jewellery, Luggage, Leather 1,577 Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Toys 3,946 Misc. 13,375 Services 89,696 Health Services 26,661 Personal Services 22,504 Professional Services 3,074 Other Services + Recreational Services 37,457

Grand Total 224,114 Sources: City of Vancouver (Business Licenses, Building Footprints), Urban Systems Ltd.

• Full-serve restaurants utilize over 31,000 square feet of space, including tenants such as Burgoo, Enigma Eatery, and multiple different sushi restaurants.

• Health services utilized approximately 31,500 square feet in Point Grey Village, with the sub- categories of dental, physician, and other health specialists all using between 6,000 and 6,500 square feet. There is a medical clinic at the intersection of Discovery and West 10th Avenue.

• The largest sub-category of comparison retail were clothing stores which utilized approximately 11,500 square feet, with tenants including Urban Yarns, BJ’s, and Michael McBride. Stores categorized as ‘miscellaneous retail’ utilized 13,500 square feet.

33 Last updated by lpunt on May 28, 2018 at 3:08 PM Last exported by lpunt on May 28, 2018 3:08 PM U:\Projects_VAN\1332\0334\01\D-Design\GIS\Projects\Pro_Projects\1332.0334.01_RevA_FINAL.aprx\UBC_Retail_Nodes_11x17__Rev_C Last printed by lpunt on September 25, 2017 11:46 AM

2 8 0 0 T O L M IE S T2 7 0 0 T O L M IE S T

2 6 0 0 T O L M IE S T 2 5 0 0 T O L M IE S T 2 4 0 0 T O L M IE S T 2 3 0 0 T O L M IE S T

4 5 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

4 5 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V

4 5 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

4 5 0 0 W 8 T H A V

4 5 0 0 W 7 T H A V 4 5 0 0 W 9 T H A V

2 8 0 0 S A S A M A T S2 T 7 0 0 S A S A M A T S T

2 6 0 0 S A S A M A T S T 2 5 0 0 S A S A M A T S T 2 4 0 0 S A S A M A T S T 2 3 0 0 S A S A M A T S T

4 4 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

4 4 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V

4 4 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

4 4 0 0 W 9 T H A V

4 4 0 0 W 8 T H A V 4 4 0 0 W 7 T H A V

Point

West

Grey

2 8 0 0 T R IM B L E S2 T 7 0 0 T R IM B L E S T

2 6 0 0 T R IM B L E S T 2 5 0 0 T R IM B L E2 S 4 T 0 0 T R IM B L E S T 2 3 0 0 T R IM B L E S T

4 3 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

4 3 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V

4 3 0 0 W 9 T H A V

4 3 0 0 W 8 T H A V 4 3 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

2 8 0 0 D IS C O V E R2 Y 7S 0 T 0 D IS C O V E R Y S T 2 6 0 0 D IS C O V E R Y S T 2 5 0 0 D IS C O V E R2 4Y 0S 0 T D IS C O V E R Y S T2 2 0 0 -2 3 0 0 D IS C O V E R Y S T

- D a taD a p ta roN S v A id o D u eC d rc1 o 9b o e 8 y s rd 3 : T U in h T e a0 M teC ityZS o y no s e f te V1 m a 0 n N : c o u v e r (2 0 1 8 )

Date:

Revision:

Status:

Checked: Project #:

p reo c f isdth e ra e Tlo win h c in e fo a ga tio rm cis c n a u n tioo ra o f t n ca g y lls u & he a o x rac is w o n tin n m te o p g e n le din th . te fo isIt n rm e wd s ra a ill s tio wob f e in n in th gw fo h eto rm e re thlo a s c e tio p a r o tes n n h ss& o ib h w e o ility n s w tao n ro b on f lis n oth h t.th e th is u e s e r Author: T h e U n iv e rs ity o f B ritis h C o lu m b ia Legend

U B C C o m p e titiv e R e ta il N o d e s

R e c re a tio n a l S e rv ic e s

P ro fe s s io n a l S e rv ic e s

P e rs o n a l S e rv ic e s

O th e r S e rv ic e s

H e a lth S e rv ic e s

F o o d & B e v e ra g e

F in a n c ia l S e rv ic e s

C o n v e n ie n c e G o o d s & S e rv ic e s

C o m p a riso n G o o d s Category P o in t G re y V illa g e (1 0 th ) R e c rP e r a o ti feP e s o r s s nO io o a th l n n a aSH e l l e r e rvSS S a e e icF e lth r rv o rv v e o ic ic s icS F d e e(3 e in e s s ) & rv s a(3(1 C(1 n icB o ) 4 c e e 4 n ia ) v sC ) v e l(1 o e raS m n e 1B g ie r ) p u e v n a sin ic c risoR(2 e e e e s 5G ta ss ) (6 n o il G o ) Im N d o o s p o d ro d& e s v S A e(2 e re m rv 5 a e ) ic n e t s A (1 re 0 a ) B o u n d a ry

2 0 1 8 / 5 / 2 8

Final

JB/DB

1 3 3 2 .0 3 3 4 .0 1 A Meters (W h e n p lo tte d a t 1 1 "x 1 7 ")

80 T o t a l 2 3 ,1 1 1 Scale:

FIGURE 15

557

286

2,091

2,923

2,477

3,962

1,786

4,469

4,561 Area (m²) 1:2,200 120

N ¯ ¯

WEST 4TH AVENUE The area of West 4th Avenue of note for UBC residents, and therefore of most relevance from a competitive standpoint, extends from Alma Street in the west to Macdonald Street in the east. This retail corridor includes the Jericho Village Shopping Centre (anchored by a No Frills supermarket, and a BC Liquor Store. The retail along this section of 4th Avenue is double loaded between Alma and Collingwood, and on the north side only between Waterloo and Blenheim. There is no retail on either side of the street between Collingwood and Waterloo. Overall, the West 4th Avenue segment from Alma to Macdonald contains approximately 290,000 square feet of retail and service commercial.

Table 5: West 4th Avenue Retail Mix West 4th Avenue Retail Mix (sq.ft.) Category Square Feet Convenience 54,015 Beer, wine, liquor stores 8,858 Convenience stores 3,802 Specialty food stores 13,285 Supermarkets 28,070 F&B 51,655 Drinking (liquor primary) 5,674 Full-Serve restaurants 35,531 Quick-Serve restaurants 10,449 Comparison Goods 60,813 Clothing 9,028 Electronics 3,869 Furniture & Home Furnishings 9,993 Building Materials / Garden 3,480 General Merchandise 0 Jewellery, Luggage, Leather 0 Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Toys 15,800 Misc. 18,643 Services 123,423 Health Services 44,049 Personal Services 27,768 Professional Services 14,412 Other Services + Recreational Services 37,194 Grand Total 289,906 Sources: City of Vancouver (Business Licenses, Building Footprints), Urban Systems Ltd.

• Service commercial accounts for 43% of floor area along this corridor. This includes a variety of medical and health care services, which together accounts for over 44,000 square feet • Full-serve restaurants take up over 35,000 square feet. Some notable tenants include La Quercia, Aphrodite, and Double D Pizza • Supermarket space comprises just over 23,000 square feet. Most of this space is located in two retail grocery stores: IGA at West 4th and Collingwood, and No Frills within the Jericho Village.

35 Last updated by lpunt on May 28, 2018 at 3:08 PM Last exported by lpunt on May 28, 2018 3:08 PM U:\Projects_VAN\1332\0334\01\D-Design\GIS\Projects\Pro_Projects\1332.0334.01_RevA_FINAL.aprx\UBC_Retail_Nodes_11x17__Rev_C Last printed by lpunt on September 25, 2017 11:46 AM

2 9 0 0 -3 0 0 0 W 4 T H A V 2 9 0 0 -3 0 0 0 W 5 T H A V

2 9 0 0 -3 0 0 0 W 3 R D A V

2 1 0 0 B A Y S W A T E R S T

2 0 0 0 B A Y S W A T E R S T 1900 BAYSWATER ST 1800BAYSWATERST

2 8 0 0 -2 9 0 0 W 5 T H A V

2 8 0 0 -2 9 0 0 W 3 R D A V 2 8 0 0 -2 9 0 0 W 4 T H A V

2 1 0 0 M A C D O N A LD ST 2 0 0 0 M A C D O N A LD ST 1 9 0 0 M A C D O N A LD ST1 8 0 0 M A C D O N A LD ST

Kitsilano

2 7 0 0 W 5 T H A V

2 7 0 0 W 4 T H A V 2 7 0 0 W 3 R D A V

2 6 0 0 W 5 T H A V 2 1 0 0 S T E P H E N S S T 2 6 0 0 W 4 T H A V 2 0 0 0 S T E P H E N S S T 1 9 0 0 S T E P H E N S S T 1 8 0 0 S T E P H E N S S T

- D a taD a p ta roN S v A id o D u eC d rc1 o 9b o e 8 y s rd 3 : T U in h T e a0 M teC ityZS o y no s e f te V1 m a 0 n N : c o u v e r (2 0 1 8 )

Date:

Revision:

Status:

Checked: Project #:

U B C C o m p e titiv e R e ta il N o d e s

R e c re a tio n a l S e rv ic e s

P ro fe s s io n a l S e rv ic e s

P e rs o n a l S e rv ic e s

O th e r S e rv ic e s

H e a lth S e rv ic e s

F o o d & B e v e ra g e

F in a n c ia l S e rv ic e s

C o n v e n ie n c e G o o d s & S e rv ic e s

C o m p a riso n G o o d s Category R e c rP e r a o ti feP e s o r s s nO io o a th l n n a aSH e l l e r e rvSS S a e e icF e lth r rv o rv v e o ic ic s icS F d e e(2 e in e s s ) & rv s a(2(1 C(2 n icB o ) 3 c e e ) n ia ) v sC v e l(1 o e raS m n e 0R g ie r ) p e e v n a ta ic c riso(1 e e il s 6 GN ) (2 n o o G o ) d d o e s oA d& re s S a (1 e rv 4 ) ic e s (4 )

2 0 1 8 / 5 / 2 8

Final

JB/DB

1 3 3 2 .0 3 3 4 .0 1 A 4 th A v e E a s t Meters 50

(W h e n p lo tte d a t 1 1 "x 1 7 ") T o t a l 1 1 ,9 6 2 Scale:

FIGURE 16

412

127

1,636

190

2,293

2,646

710

772

3,175 Area (m²) 1:1,400 75

N ¯ ¯ Last updated by lpunt on May 28, 2018 at 3:08 PM Last exported by lpunt on May 28, 2018 3:08 PM U:\Projects_VAN\1332\0334\01\D-Design\GIS\Projects\Pro_Projects\1332.0334.01_RevA_FINAL.aprx\UBC_Retail_Nodes_11x17__Rev_C Last printed by lpunt on September 25, 2017 11:46 AM

2 3 0 0 H IG H B U2 R 2 Y 0 S 0 T H IG H B U R Y 2S 1T 0 0 H IG H B U R Y S T

2 0 0 0 H IG H B U R Y S T 1 9 0 0 H IG H B U R1 8Y 0S 0 T H IG H B U R Y S1 T 7 0 0 H IG H B U R Y S T

3 7

Point

West

Grey

0 3 7 0 0 W 7 T H A V

3 7 0 0 W 6 T H A V

3 7 0 0 W 3 R D A V 3 7 0 0 W 2 N D A V

H 3 7 0 0 W 5 T H A V

2 3 0 0 A LM A S2 T 2 0 0 A LM A S T 2 1 0 0 A LM A S T

2 0 0 0 A LM A S T 1 9 0 0 A LM A S1 T 8 0 0 A LM A S T 1 7 0 0 A LM A S T

3 6 0 0 W 7 T H A V

3 6 0 0 W 6 T H A V

3 6 0 0 W 5 T H A V

3 6 0 0 W 4 T H A V

3 6 0 0 W 3 R D A V 3 6 0 0 W 2 N D A V

2 3 0 0 D U N B A2 R 2S 0 T 0 D U N B A R S T2 1 0 0 D U N B A R S T

2 0 0 0 D U N B A R S T 1900 DUNBAR1 8ST 0 0 D U N B A R S T 1 7 0 0 D U N B A R S T

3 5 0 0 W 7 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 6 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 5 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 4 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 3 R D A V 3 5 0 0 W 2 N D A V

2 2 0 0 C O LLIN G W O2 1 O 0 D 0 STC O LLIN G W O O D ST

2 0 0 0 C O LLIN G W O O D ST1 9 0 0 C O LLIN G W1 8 O 0 O 0 D C ST O LLIN G W O1 O 7 D 0 0ST C O LLIN G W O O D ST 3 4 0 0 W 4 T H A V

Kitsilano

3 4 0 0 W 7 T H A V

3 4 0 0 W 6 T H A V

3 4 0 0 W 5 T H A V

3 4 0 0 W 3 R D A V 3 4 0 0 W 2 N D A V

2 2 0 0 W A T E R LO O ST

2 1 0 0 W A T E R LO O2 ST 0 0 0 W A T E R LO O ST 1 9 0 0 W A T E R LO1 8 O 0 0ST W A T E R LO O 1ST 7 0 0 W A T E R LO O ST

3 3 0 0 W 4 T H A V

3 3 0 0 W 7 T H A V

3 3 0 0 W 6 T H A V

3 3 0 0 W 5 T H A V

3 3 0 0 W 3 R D A V 3 3 0 0 W 2 N D A V

2 2 0 0 B LE N H E IM S T 2 1 0 0 B LE N H E IM S2 T 0 0 0 B LE N H E IM S T 1 9 0 0 B LE N H E IM1 8 0S 0 T B LE N H E IM S1 T 7 0 0 B LE N H E IM S T

- D a taD a p ta roN S v A id o D u eC d rc1 o 9b o e 8 y s rd 3 : T U in h T e a0 M teC ityZS o y no s e f te V1 m a 0 n N : c o u v e r (2 0 1 8 )

Date:

Revision:

Status:

Checked: Project #:

U B C C o m p e titiv e R e ta il N o d e s

R e c re a tio n a l S e rv ic e s

P ro fe s s io n a l S e rv ic e s

P e rs o n a l S e rv ic e s

O th e r S e rv ic e s

H e a lth S e rv ic e s

F o o d & B e v e ra g e

F in a n c ia l S e rv ic e s

C o n v e n ie n c e G o o d s & S e rv ic e s

C o m p a riso n G o o d s Category R e c rP e r a o ti feP e s o r s s nO io o a th l n n a aSH e l l e r e rvSS S a e e icF e lth r rv o rv v e o ic ic s icS F d e e(2 e in e s s ) & rv s a(5(3 C(7 n icB o ) ) c e e ) n ia v sC v e l(1 o e raS m n e 0R g ie r ) p e e v n a ta ic c riso(1 e e il s 2 GN ) (1 n o o G o ) d d o e s oA d& re s S a (1 e rv 7 ) ic e s (1 0 )

2 0 1 8 / 5 / 2 8

Final

JB/DB

1 3 3 2 .0 3 3 4 .0 1 A Meters 4 th A v e W e s t 80

(W h e n p lo tte d a t 1 1 "x 1 7 ") T o t a l 1 5 ,9 8 1 Scale:

FIGURE 17

907

1,212

944

1,948

1,799

2,153

299

4,246

2,474 Area (m²) 120 1:2,400

N ¯ ¯

WEST BROADWAY Retail along the Broadway corridor between Alma and Macdonald is an area that draws patrons from UBC campus and UEL, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Along this stretch of Broadway there is a total of nearly 480,000 square feet of retail and service commercial space. The largest tenant in this corridor is the Safeway supermarket just east of Macdonald, which is on the eastern boundary of the trade area.

Table 6: West Broadway Retail Mix West Broadway Retail Mix Category Square Feet Convenience 106,537 Beer, wine, liquor stores 6,449 Convenience stores 4,263 Specialty food stores 45,685 Supermarkets 50,140 F&B 143,577 Drinking (liquor primary) 11,554 Full-Serve restaurants 103,519 Quick-Serve restaurants 28,504 Comparison Goods 115,122 Clothing 15,125 Electronics 8,544 Furniture & Home Furnishings 13,846 Building Materials / Garden 10,329 General Merchandise 9,380 Jewellery, Luggage, Leather 2,060 Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Toys 20,958 Pets 4,991 Misc. 29,886 Services 113,810 Health Services 30,760 Personal Services 43,722 Professional Services 13,280 Other Services + Recreational Services 26,047 Grand Total 479,046 Sources: City of Vancouver (Business Licenses, Building Footprints), Urban Systems Ltd.

• Food & Beverage accounts for 30% of commercial floor area in this corridor, of which over 70% is full-serve restaurants. Notable restaurants include: East is East, Nuba, The Eatery, Banana Leaf, Deacon’s Corner, Olympia Pizza, as well as multiple sushi restaurants

• Comparison Goods and Service Commercial each account for 24% of overall floor area. Nearly 20% of floor area falls into the supermarket and specialty foods categories. The former is dominated by the large Safeway at Macdonald and Broadway

• Personal Services are an important category along this corridor. Salons in particular encompass over 32,000 square feet of floor area

38 Last updated by lpunt on May 28, 2018 at 3:08 PM Last exported by lpunt on May 28, 2018 3:08 PM

U:\Projects_VAN\1332\0334\01\D-Design\GIS\Projects\Pro_Projects\1332.0334.01_RevA_FINAL.aprx\UBC_Retail_Nodes_11x17__Rev_C Last printed by lpunt on September 25, 2017 11:46 AM

3 3 0 0 W 8 T H A V

3 3 0 0 W 6 T H A V 3 3 0 0 W 7 T H A V 3 3 0 0 W 5 T H A V

2 7 0 0 B LE N H E IM2 6S T0 0 B LE N H E IM S T

2 5 0 0 B LE N H E IM S T2 4 0 0 B LE N H E2 IM 3 0 0S TB LE N H E IM2 2 0S 0T B LE N H E IM2 1 0S T0 B LE N H E IM S T

3200 W B R O A D W A Y

3 2 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

3 2 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V

3 2 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

3 2 0 0 W 8 T H A V

3 2 0 0 W 7 T H A V

3 2 0 0 W 6 T H A V 3 2 0 0 W 5 T H A V

2 7 0 0 T R U T C H S2 T 6 0 0 T R U T C H S T

2 5 0 0 T R U T C H S T 2 4 0 0 T R U T C2 H 3 0S 0 T T R U T C H 2S 2T 0 0 T R U T C H 2S T1 0 0 T R U T C H S T

3100 W B R O A D W A Y

3 1 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

3 1 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V

3 1 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

3 1 0 0 W 8 T H A V

3 1 0 0 W 7 T H A V

3 1 0 0 W 6 T H A V 3 1 0 0 W 5 T H A V

2 7 0 0 B A LA C LA V2 A 6 0S T0 B A LA C LA V A S T

2 5 0 0 B A LA C LA V A S T2 4 0 0 B A LA C LA2 3 V 0 A0 BS TA LA C LA2 V 2 A 0 0S TB A LA C LA2 V 1 A 0 0S TB A LA C LA V A S T

3000 W B R O A D W A Y

3 0 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

3 0 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V

3 0 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

2 9 0 0 -3 0 0 0 W 8 T H A V

2 9 0 0 -3 0 0 0 W 7 T H A V

2 9 0 0 -3 0 0 0 W 6 T H A V 2 9 0 0 -3 0 0 0 W 5 T H A V

Kitsilano

2 7 0 0 C A R N A R V O2 6 N 0 0S TC A R N A R2 V 5 O 0 N0 CS AT R N A R V O N S T

2900 W B R O A D W A Y

2 9 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

2 9 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V 2 9 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

2 4 0 0 B A Y S W2 A 3 T 0 E 0 R B S A T Y S W A2 T 2E 0R 0S B T A Y S W A2 T 1E 0R 0S B T A Y S W A T E R S T

2 8 0 0 -2 9 0 0 W 8 T H A V 2 8 0 0 -2 9 0 0 W 5 T H A V

2 7 0 0 M A C K E N Z2 IE 6 0S T0 M A C K E N2 5 Z 0 IE 0 SM T A C K E N Z IE S T 2 8 0 0 W 6 T H A V

2800 W B R O A D W A Y

2 8 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

2 8 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

2 8 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V 2 8 0 0 W 7 T H A V

I T

I L

I O

0 0

A 2 3 0 0 M A C D O N2 A 2 LD0 0 STM A C D O N A LD ST

C 2 1 0 0 M A C D O N A LD ST

A L D S

2 7 0 0 M A C D O N A2 6LD 0 0ST M A C D O2 N 5 A 0 LD 0 M ST A C D O N AT LD ST

2700 W B R O A D W A Y

2 7 0 0 W 7 T H A V

2 7 0 0 W 6 T H A V 2 7 0 0 W 5 T H A V

2 2 7 0 0 W 8 T H A V

2 7 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

K 2 7 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

I 2 7 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V

S 2 4 0 0 S T E P H E N2 S 3 S 0 T 0 S T E P H E N S S T

T 2 2 0 0 S T E P H E N S S T

E 2 1 0 0 S T E P H E N S S T

N S T

2 7 0 0 S T E P H E N S2 S 6 T 0 0 S T E P H E N S SS T

- D a taD a p ta roN S v A id o D u eC d rc1 o 9b o e 8 y s rd 3 : T U in h T e a0 M teC ityZS o y no s e f te V1 m a 0 n N : c o u v e r (2 0 1 8 )

Date:

Revision:

Status:

Checked: Project #:

U B C C o m p e titiv e R e ta il N o d e s

R e c re a tio n a l S e rv ic e s

P ro fe s s io n a l S e rv ic e s

P e rs o n a l S e rv ic e s

O th e r S e rv ic e s

H e a lth S e rv ic e s

F o o d & B e v e ra g e

F in a n c ia l S e rv ic e s

C o n v e n ie n c e G o o d s & S e rv ic e s

C o m p a riso n G o o d s

Automotive Category R e c rP e r a o ti feP e s o r s s nO io o a th l n n a aSH e l l e r e rvSS S a e e icF e lth r rv o rv v e o ic ic s icS F d e e(1 e in e s s ) & r s a v(4(1 C(5 n icB o ) 7 c e e ) n ia ) v sC v e l(4 o e raS m n e ) Automotive g ie r p e v n a ic c risoB(4 e e u s 2G sin ) (5 nR o eG o ) e ta ss d o s o il Im d &N(1) s o S p (3 e d ro rv e 2 v A ) ic e re m e s a e n(1 t 9A ) re a B o u n d a ry

2 0 1 8 / 5 / 2 8

Final

JB/DB

1 3 3 2 .0 3 3 4 .0 1 A B ro a d w a y E a s t Meters 100

(W h e n p lo tte d a t 1 1 "x 1 7 ") T o t a l 2 7 ,1 6 1 Scale:

FIGURE 18

196

674

1,997

793

385

6,798

1,514

8,731

5,883

189 Area (m²) 1:2,800 150

2 8 0 0 H IG H B U R2 Y 7 S 0 T 0 H IG H B U R2 Y6 0S 0 T H IG H B U R Y S T

2 5 0 0 H IG H B U2 R 4 Y 0 S 0 T H IG H B U R Y 2S T3 0 0 H IG H B U R2 Y 2S 0 T 0 H IG H B U R Y S T

3700 W B R O A D W A Y

3 7 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

3 7 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V 3 7 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

Point

West

Grey

3 7 0 0 W 8 T H A V 3 7 0 0 W 7 T H A V

2 7 0 0 A LM A S T2 6 0 0 A LM A S T 2 5 0 0 A LM A S T 2 4 0 0 A LM A S2 T 3 0 0 A LM A S T 2 2 0 0 A LM A S T

3600 W B R O A D W A Y

3 6 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

3 6 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V

3 6 0 0 W 8 T H A V

3 6 0 0 W 7 T H A V 3 6 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

2 8 0 0 D U N B A R 2S 7 T 0 0 D U N B A R S T

2 6 0 0 D U N B A R2 5S 0T 0 D U N2 5 B 0 A 0 R D S U T N B A R S T2 4 0 0 D U N B A R2 3S 0 T 0 D U N B A R S2 T 2 0 0 D U N B A R S T

3500 W B R O A D W A Y

3 5 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 8 T H A V 3 5 0 0 W 7 T H A V

2 7 0 0 C O LLIN G W O O D ST 2 6 0 0 C O LLIN G W2 O 5 0O 0 D C ST O LLIN G W O O D 2ST 4 0 0 C O LLIN G W2 3 O 0 O0 DC OST LLIN G W2 O2 0 O 0 D C ST O LLIN G W O O D ST

Kitsilano

3400 W B R O A D W A Y

3 4 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

3 4 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V

3 4 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

3 4 0 0 W 8 T H A V 3 4 0 0 W 7 T H A V

2 8 0 0 W A T E R LO2 O7 0 ST 0 W A T E R LO O ST

2 6 0 0 W A T E R LO2 O 5 0ST 0 W A T E R LO O ST 2 4 0 0 W A T E R LO2 3 O 0 0ST W A T E R LO2 O 2 ST 0 0 W A T E R LO O ST

3300 W B R O A D W A Y

3 3 0 0 W 1 2 T H A V

3 3 0 0 W 1 1 T H A V

3 3 0 0 W 1 0 T H A V

3 3 0 0 W 8 T H A V 3 3 0 0 W 7 T H A V

2 8 0 0 B LE N H E IM2 7 S 0 T0 B LE N H E IM S T 2 6 0 0 B LE N H E IM2 5 0S 0T B LE N H E IM S T 2 4 0 0 B LE N H E2 IM 3 0 S 0 T B LE N H E IM2 S 2 T 0 0 B LE N H E IM S T

- D a taD a p ta roN S v A id o D u eC d rc1 o 9b o e 8 y s rd 3 : T U in h T e a0 M teC ityZS o y no s e f te V1 m a 0 n N : c o u v e r (2 0 1 8 )

Date:

Revision:

Status:

Checked: Project #:

U B C C o m p e titiv e R e ta il N o d e s

R e c re a tio n a l S e rv ic e s

P ro fe s s io n a l S e rv ic e s

P e rs o n a l S e rv ic e s

O th e r S e rv ic e s

H e a lth S e rv ic e s

F o o d & B e v e ra g e

F in a n c ia l S e rv ic e s

C o n v e n ie n c e G o o d s & S e rv ic e s

C o m p a riso n G o o d s Category R e c rP e r a o ti feP e s o r s s nO io o a th l n n a aSH e l l e r e rvSS S a e e icF e lth r rv o rv v e o ic ic s icS F d e e(3 e in e s s ) & rv s a(4(1 C(6 n icB o ) 5 c e e ) n ia ) v sC v e l(1 o e raS m n e 4B g ie r ) p u e v n a sin ic c risoR(2 e e e e s 7G ta ss ) (3 n o il G o ) Im N d o o s p o d ro d& e s v S A e(2 e re m rv 4 a e ) ic n e t s A (4 re ) a B o u n d a ry

2 0 1 8 / 5 / 2 8

Final

JB/DB

1 3 3 2 .0 3 3 4 .0 1 A B ro ad w ay W est Meters 80

(W h e n p lo tte d a t 1 1 "x 1 7 ") T o t a l 2 0 ,3 9 3 Scale:

FIGURE 19

742

560

2,064

689

2,473

6,541

970

1,166

5,187 Area (m²) 120 1:2,400

N ¯ ¯

DUNBAR The Dunbar retail area is comprised of three distinct nodes: (1) Dunbar North is clustered around Dunbar and 16th Avenue, extending south to 19th Avenue; (2) Dunbar Central, extending 5 blocks from King Edward Avenue to West 30th Avenue; (3) and Dunbar South, extending 2 blocks from 39th to 41st Avenue, and east along 41st to Collingwood. Overall, the Dunbar commercial area contains over 300,000 square feet of retail and service commercial space.

Table 7: Dunbar Retail Mix Dunbar Retail Mix Category Square Feet Convenience 79,360 Beer, wine, liquor stores 9,863 Convenience stores 2,358 Specialty food stores 28,498 Supermarkets 38,641 F&B 47,633 Drinking (liquor primary) 0 Full-Serve restaurants 34,980 Quick-Serve restaurants 12,653 Comparison Goods 38,649 Clothing 0 Electronics 0 Furniture & Home Furnishings 5,897 Building Materials / Garden 3,370 General Merchandise 0 Jewellery, Luggage, Leather 2,234 Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Toys 1,874 Pets 6,815 Misc. 18,460 Services 134,823 Health Services 48,466 Personal Services 39,267 Professional Services 12,154 Other Services + Recreational Services 34,937 Grand Total 300,466 Sources: City of Vancouver (Business Licenses, Building Footprints), Urban Systems Ltd.

• Service commercial is by far the most prominent category along Dunbar. Health services in particular comprise a sizeable amount of space; much of this is clustered in a professional building along West 41st at Collingwood

• Over 20% of retail floor area along Dunbar is in the categories of supermarket and specialty foods. Notable tenants include Strong’s, Save-On Foods, and the new H-Mart.

• Other notable tenants that draw people to Dunbar include Shoppers Drug Mart, Dunbar Produce, the Dunbar Theatre, a cluster of barbers and salons, and a few notable restaurants.

41 Last updated by lpunt on May 28, 2018 at 3:08 PM Last exported by lpunt on May 28, 2018 3:08 PM U:\Projects_VAN\1332\0334\01\D-Design\GIS\Projects\Pro_Projects\1332.0334.01_RevA_FINAL.aprx\UBC_Retail_Nodes_11x17__Rev_C Last printed by lpunt on September 25, 2017 11:46 AM

3200 HIGHBURY ST 3 1 0 0 H IG H B U R Y S T

3400 HIGHBURY ST 3300 HIGHBURY ST

3 7 0 0 W 1 6 T H A V 3 6 0 0 -3 7 0 0 W 1 7 T H A V

3 6 0 0 -3 7 0 0 W 1 8 T H A V

3 6 0 0 -3 7 0 0 W 1 9 T H A V

D u n b a r-S o u th la n d s

Point

West

Grey

3 1 0 0 A LM A S T 3 6 0 0 W 1 6 T H A V

3400 DUNBAR ST 3300 DUNBAR ST 3200 DUNBAR ST

3 1 0 0 D U N B A R S T 3 5 0 0 W 1 7 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 1 8 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 1 9 T H A V 3 5 0 0 W 1 6 T H A V

Kitsilano

- D a taD a p ta roN S v A id o D u eC d rc1 o 9b o e 8 y s rd 3 : T U in h T e a0 M teC ityZS o y no s e f te V1 m a 0 n N : c o u v e r (2 0 1 8 )

Date:

Revision:

Status:

Checked: Project #:

U B C C o m p e titiv e R e ta il N o d e s

R e c re a tio n a l S e rv ic e s

P ro fe s s io n a l S e rv ic e s

P e rs o n a l S e rv ic e s

O th e r S e rv ic e s

H e a lth S e rv ic e s

F o o d & B e v e ra g e

F in a n c ia l S e rv ic e s

C o n v e n ie n c e G o o d s & S e rv ic e s

C o m p a riso n G o o d s Category R e c rP e r a o ti feP e s o r s s nO io o a th l n n a aSH e l l e r e rvSS S a e e icF e lth r rv o rv v e o ic ic s icS F d e e(3 e in e s s ) & r s a v(4(8 C(4 n icB o ) ) c e e ) n ia v sC v e l(4 o e raS m n e ) B g ie r p u e v n a sin ic c risoR(9 e e e e s ) G ta ss(1 n o il G o ) Im N d o o s p o d ro d& e s v S A e(8 e re m rv ) a e ic n e t s A (3 re ) a B o u n d a ry

2 0 1 8 / 5 / 2 8

Final

JB/DB

1 3 3 2 .0 3 3 4 .0 1 A Meters D u n b a r & 1 6 th 40

(W h e n p lo tte d a t 1 1 "x 1 7 ") T o t a l 8 ,1 9 1 Scale: FIGURE 20

391

569

1,287

786

795

1,669

185

1,168

1,342 Area (m²) 1:1,300

3 6 0 0 W 3 9 T H A V

3 6 0 0 W 4 1 S T A V

5700 DUNBAR ST 5600 DUNBAR ST 5500 DUNBAR ST

D u n b a r-S o u th la n d s

3 5 0 0 W 3 9 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 4 0 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 4 1 S T A V

5500 COLLINGWOOD ST 5700 COLLINGWOOD ST 5600 COLLINGWOOD ST

- D a taD a p ta roN S v A id o D u eC d rc1 o 9b o e 8 y s rd 3 : T U in h T e a0 M teC ityZS o y no s e f te V1 m a 0 n N : c o u v e r (2 0 1 8 )

Date:

Revision:

Status:

Checked: Project #:

U B C C o m p e titiv e R e ta il N o d e s

R e c re a tio n a l S e rv ic e s

P ro fe s s io n a l S e rv ic e s

P e rs o n a l S e rv ic e s

O th e r S e rv ic e s

H e a lth S e rv ic e s

F o o d & B e v e ra g e

F in a n c ia l S e rv ic e s

C o n v e n ie n c e G o o d s & S e rv ic e s

C o m p a riso n G o o d s Category 10 Meters

R e c rP e r a o ti feP e s o r s s nO io o a th l n n a aSH e l l e r e rvSS S a e e icF e lth r rv o rv v e o ic ic s icS F d e e(1 e in e s s ) & r s a v(2(3 C(4 n icB o ) ) c e e ) n ia v sC v e l(6 o e raS m n e ) B g ie r p u e v n a sin ic c risoR(6 e e e e s ) G ta ss(1 n o il G o ) Im N d o o s p o d ro d& e s v S A e(8 e re m rv ) a e ic n e t s A (6 re ) a B o u n d a ry

2 0 1 8 / 5 / 2 8

Final

JB/DB

1 3 3 2 .0 3 3 4 .0 1 A 20 D u n b a r & 4 1 s t 30

(W h e n p lo tte d a t 1 1 "x 1 7 ") T o t a l 1 0 ,6 6 9 Scale:

FIGURE 21

289

348

846

641

2,071

1,184

194

3,403

1,693 Area (m²) 1:1,000

3 8 0 0 W 2 6 T H A V

3 8 0 0 W 2 7 T H A V

3 8 0 0 W 2 9 T H A V

3 8 0 0 W 3 0 T H A V

4200 HIGHBURY ST 4100 HIGHBURY ST 4500 HIGHBURY ST

3 7 0 0 W 2 7 T H A V

3 7 0 0 W 2 8 T H A V

3 7 0 0 W 2 9 T H A V

3 6 0 0 -3 7 0 0 W 2 6 T H A V

3 6 0 0 -3 7 0 0 W 3 0 T H A V

4400 ALMA ST 4300 ALMA ST

3 6 0 0 W 2 8 T H A V

3 6 0 0 W 2 7 T H A V

3 6 0 0 W 2 9 T H A V

4200 DUNBAR ST 4100 DUNBAR ST 4500 DUNBAR ST 4400 DUNBAR ST 4300 DUNBAR ST

D u n b a r-S o u th la n d s

3 5 0 0 W 2 8 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 2 9 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 2 6 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 3 0 T H A V

3 5 0 0 W 2 7 T H A V

4200 DUNKIRK ST 4100 DUNKIRK ST

4500 COLLINGWOOD ST4400 COLLINGWOOD ST4300 COLLINGWOOD ST 4200 COLLINGWOOD4100 ST COLLINGWOOD ST

3 3 0 0 -3 4 0 0 W 2 8 T H A V

3 3 0 0 -3 4 0 0 W 2 9 T H A V

3 3 0 0 -3 4 0 0 W 3 0 T H A V

3 3 0 0 -3 4 0 0 W 2 6 T H A V

3 3 0 0 -3 4 0 0 W 2 7 T H A V

- D a taD a p ta roN S v A id o D u eC d rc1 o 9b o e 8 y s rd 3 : T U in h T e a0 M teC ityZS o y no s e f te V1 m a 0 n N : c o u v e r (2 0 1 8 )

Date:

Revision:

Status:

Checked: Project #:

U B C C o m p e titiv e R e ta il N o d e s

R e c re a tio n a l S e rv ic e s

P ro fe s s io n a l S e rv ic e s

P e rs o n a l S e rv ic e s

O th e r S e rv ic e s

H e a lth S e rv ic e s

F o o d & B e v e ra g e

F in a n c ia l S e rv ic e s

C o n v e n ie n c e G o o d s & S e rv ic e s

C o m p a riso n G o o d s Category R e c rP e r a o ti feP e s o r s s nO io o a th l n n a aSH e l l e r e rvSS S a e e icF e lth r rv o rv v e o ic ic s icS F d e e(1 e in e s s ) & rv s a(1(1 C(5 n icB o ) 5 c e e ) n ia ) v sC v e l(1 o e raS m n e 2B g ie r ) p u e v n a sin ic c risoR(1 e e e e s 5G ta ss ) (7 n o il G o ) Im N d o o s p o d ro d& e s v S A e(6 e re m rv ) a e ic n e t s A (6 re ) a B o u n d a ry 30

D u n b a r & K in g E d

2 0 1 8 / 5 / 2 8

Final

JB/DB

1 3 3 2 .0 3 3 4 .0 1 A Meters 60

(W h e n p lo tte d a t 1 1 "x 1 7 ") T o t a l 1 1 ,2 9 6 Scale: FIGURE 22

117

212

1,515

1,022

1,637

1,572

1,724

2,802

695 Area (m²) 1:2,000

N ¯ ¯

4.5 CONTEXT SUMMARY & IMPLICATIONS

For future patronage of retail and service commercial at SRN, the surrounding residential neighbourhoods of most significance (aside from the future on-site residential component) are Hawthorne Place, Wesbrook Place, and Hampton Place. The majority of future resident patrons at Stadium’s retail/service node are likely to come from these areas.

In addition, Stadium Road retail and services will be of importance to those students living at Totem Park and Thunderbird Residences, as well as those students who frequent Thunderbird Park, Doug Mitchell Sports Centre, and the numerous other facilities in and around those areas.

If a new strength training centre is co-located with the new Thunderbird Stadium, this could drive significant additional traffic to future retail and service commercial businesses at Stadium Road.

UBC is relatively isolated from Vancouver’s west side commercial nodes and corridors, which is what creates the opportunity (and need) for on-campus goods and services across a wide variety of categories, particularly those that are needed or desired on a day-to-day basis. From a UBC resident standpoint, the 100,000+ square foot commercial agglomeration at Wesbrook Place is positioned to serve the bulk of the UTown residents’ day-to-day convenience retail and service needs going forward. That hub is complemented by the ‘academic core’, which includes the new SUB, the Bookstore, University Village / Marketplace, and the growing assortment of restaurants along University Boulevard. This area will continue to be the heart of activity for much of the student population, while also providing important goods and services to UTown and UEL residents.

With regards to Vancouver’s west side neighbourhood retail nodes and corridors discussed above (Point Grey, Dunbar etc.), while most of these areas are relatively distant from UBC for day-to-day convenience goods and services (with the exception of Point Grey Village), they are relatively proximate to UBC for providing access to comparison goods and services that are purchased or used less frequently (e.g. clothing, shoes, homewares, sporting goods). This puts limits on the opportunity for major expansion of comparison goods retail at UBC.

Overall, the retail and service distribution at Point Grey Peninsula is characterized by a strong bi- nodal distribution: Wesbrook in the south and the academic core in the north. These combined areas account for nearly 90% of the total retail and service floor area on the Point Grey Peninsula. The development of Lelem will extend the University Boulevard ‘node’ into a longer corridor, but the bi- nodal distribution will still essentially hold.

Within this context, and given policy direction to maintain Wesbrook and University Boulevard as the main hubs of retail and service activity going forward13, Stadium Road Neighbourhood’s commercial offering should be sized and positioned to act in the following ways:

______13 Coriolis report of 2011, p.14: “future commercial development should be focused in the Village Academic Core (for university-oriented uses) and in the Wesbrook Village area (for resident-oriented uses).

• As a localized neighbourhood-oriented node serving day-to-day needs of on-site and nearby under-served residents (both in neighbourhoods and student residences)

• As a place of convenience retail and food & beverage services for students and other visitors coming to Thunderbird Stadium, Thunderbird Park, Doug Mitchell Centre, and the Botanical Garden

• As a place of convenience retail and food & beverage services for a future relocated strength training centre (speculative at time of writing)

• As a gathering place where students and residents can meet, eat, socialize and study

• As a place where some of the services (and/or retail) are directly connected to UBC Athletics and the UBC Farm

The following table summarizes the target market segments for the Stadium Road neighbourhood commercial area:

Table 8: Target Market Segments for Stadium Road Neighbourhood Primary Market Segments Secondary & Tertiary Market Segments

Future Stadium Road Neighbourhood residents Residents of Hampton Place

Residents of Hawthorn Place Residents of Wesbrook Place (for specialty goods & destination F&B)

Student residents at Totem Park and Student residents at Fraser Hall and Acadia Thunderbird Residences Park Residences

Clientele of relocated and expanded strength Students, staff, others frequenting facilities at training centre (speculative) Thunderbird Park and Thunderbird Sports Centre

Periodic visitors to athletic fields / facilities (events, activities)

Visitors to Botanical Garden

It is with the above context in mind that we shift in the next section to delineating neighbourhood- specific trade areas and quantifying the extent of support for retail and service commercial at Stadium Neighbourhood, by category.

5 COMMERCIAL MARKET DEMAND AT STADIUM ROAD NEIGHBOURHOOD

5.1 INTRODUCTION

Future retail and service commercial at Stadium Road Neighbourhood will function primarily as a neighbourhood-serving node and amenity for the combined populations living, working, studying and playing in and around the neighbourhood. Its size, mix and market positioning will be shaped by the growth trajectory of all these population groups, each group’s unique spending profile, and the drawing power limitations created by existing on and off-campus retail nodes. It should also take into account its unique position at the heart of UBC’s athletic facilities (including a new Thunderbird Stadium), as well as its proximity to both the UBC Botanical Garden and the UBC Farm.

5.2 TRADE AREA DELINEATION

Trade areas for Stadium Road retail are delineated based on the distribution of complementary and competitive retail areas. The most notable of these areas are: (1) Wesbrook Village; (2) University Boulevard; (3) University Village / Marketplace, and (4) future retail at Block F / Lelem. The existing and emerging retail environments at each of these nodes is taken into consideration when setting segment-specific capture rates for spending at Stadium.

The trade areas for Stadium Road also respect the presence and influence of significant clusters of goods and services in Point Grey Village (West 10th Ave), West Broadway, West 4th, and Dunbar, all of which are easily accessible by car or transit for residents throughout the defined trade areas.

5.2.1 Resident and Student Trade Areas

The Primary Trade Area (PTA) is defined as the bounds of the future Stadium Road Neighbourhood itself. The first residents of this neighbourhood are expected to move in around 2023 or 2024, and full build-out (housing 3,833 residents) is expected to be achieved by 2028.

Three Secondary Trade Areas (STAs) have been delineated in the areas immediately around Stadium Road Neighbourhood:

• STA – North (STA-N): encompasses the Hawthorn Place Neighbourhood, bounded by Stadium Road, Thunderbird Boulevard, West Mall, and East Mall. It is home to an estimated 1,771 residents, and is fully built-out.

• STA – South (STA-S): encompasses Wesbrook Place, bounded by West 16th Avenue, Binning Road, and the UBC Farm. It is home to an estimated 5,513 and is projected to reach nearly 14,000 by 2030.

• STA – East (STA-E): encompasses Hampton Place (built-out, 2,192 residents), East Campus (built-out, 722 residents, Acadia East (future neighbourhood – 6,600 residents by 2041), and student residences.

Figure 23: Resident Trade Areas for Stadium Road Retail / Commercial Village

STA - N STA - E

PTA

STA - S

In addition to residents of the above trade areas, the other resident groups that will contribute a sizeable portion of future on-site spending are those students residing at Totem Park and Thunderbird, immediately north and west of STA-N.

5.2.2 Other Spending Sources

The following are other groups that will contribute to the viability of retail and services at Stadium Road. For this analysis, the spending from these groups is considered using an ‘inflow’ spending factor applied to the spending of trade area residents. Inflow will include:

• Residents of Acadia Park (north of STA-E)

• Other non-trade area residents in relative proximity, who are attracted to the site’s mix of uses (e.g. residents of UEL; students at Orchard Commons, Marine Drive, Vanier, Gage etc.)

• Other UBC students (75%-80% living off-campus)

• UBC faculty and staff and other visitors

5.3 TRADE AREA POPULATION & INCOME

Table 10 below provides a snapshot of population, household size, household income and per- capita income for residents of each trade area in 2018.

Table 9: Trade Area Resident Population and Income, 2018 2018 Summary Demographics PTA STA N STA S STA E Population 1771 5513 2192 Persons per HHLD 2.79 2.54 2.35 N/A Avg. Household Income $ 88,620 $ 74,741 $ 80,807 Avg. Per Capita Income $ 31,755 $ 29,426 $ 34,386 Source: UBC Campus and Community Planning; Environics Analytics DemoStats (via Sitewise); Urban Systems Ltd.

Table 7 provides a snapshot of population forecasts for each trade area, to 2038. Both STA-North and STA-East have already reached full build-out. The PTA is expected to reach build-out between 2029 and 2030. Wesbrook Place is expected to reach build-out around 2031.

Table 10: Trade Area Resident Population Forecasts to 2038 PTA STA N STA S STA E

2018 Population 0 1,867 5,513 2,192

2028 Population 3,194 1,867 11,958 2,192

2038 Population 3,833 1,867 13,891 2,192 POPULATION

Source: UBC Campus and Community Planning

The bed count at Totem and Thunderbird residences is 634 and 2,130 respectively in 2018. After accounting for number of months per year occupied and factoring in the annual vacancy rate, the effective population of each residence in 2018 is estimated at 626 and 1,385.

There is intent to add graduate / family-style housing to Totem in the 2025-2030 period. This planned expansion will likely add another 1,000 residents to that complex. It is assumed that these will be year-round residents.

Table 11: Totem + Thunderbird Residence Population

% of Year Annual Vacancy Effective Residence Bed Count Occupied Rate Population Thunderbird, 2018 634 100% 1.2% 626 Totem, 2018 2,130 67% 2.5% 1,385 Total, 2018 2,764 2,011

New Beds, 2025 +500 100% 1.2% 494 Total, 2025 3,264 2,505 New Beds, 2026 +500 100% 2.5% 488 Total, 2026+ 3,764 2,992

5.4 GROSS RETAIL EXPENDITURES FORECAST

5.4.1 Trade Area Resident Expenditures

Table 13 below provides a snapshot of category-specific expenditure levels for the residents of each trade area, both today and in 2038. All figures are real, inflation-adjusted dollars, using the average category-specific CPI rates as reported by Statistics Canada from 2005 to 2017. Gross expenditures are further customized for each trade area based on the differential in per-capita disposable income between the trade area and the provincial average.

• The PTA is projected to have its first residents in 2024, with build-out by 2029. The gross retail expenditure potential of PTA residents is projected to reach $47.5 million by 2028, $64.8 million by 2033 and $74.1 million by 2038

• Within the STA-N (Hawthorne Place), gross annual retail expenditures are an estimated $25.1million in 2018. This figure is projected to reach $31.6 million by 2028 and $39.7 million by 2038.

• Within the STA-S (Wesbrook Place), gross annual retail expenditures are an estimated $75 million in 2018. This figure is projected to reach $199.4 million by 2028 and $286.2 million by 2038. The population of this trade area is expected to grow by more than 150% over the next 20 years.

• Within the STA-E (Hampton Place), gross annual expenditures are an estimated $30.5 million in 2018. This figure is projected to reach $38.5 million by 2028 and $48.2 million by 2038.

Table 12: Gross Retail Expenditure Potential, Trade Area Residents, 2018 and 2038 PTA STA N STA S STA E Categories 2018 2038 2018 2038 2018 2038 2018 2038 Convenience Goods Grocery $ - $ 10,619,748 $ 5,109,921 $ 5,384,079 $ 15,292,559 $ 38,532,366 $ 5,718,147 $ 5,718,147 Specialty Foods $ - $ 589,758 $ 283,775 $ 299,000 $ 849,258 $ 2,139,860 $ 317,552 $ 317,552 Convenience $ - $ 1,348,396 $ 468,414 $ 683,620 $ 1,401,831 $ 5,058,444 $ 524,168 $ 764,990 Beer, Wine, Liquor $ - $ 6,494,601 $ 1,581,818 $ 2,906,652 $ 4,529,024 $ 20,341,118 $ 2,053,133 $ 3,772,712 Health & Personal Care $ - $ 10,234,407 $ 2,055,927 $ 4,541,198 $ 5,866,872 $ 31,383,884 $ 2,695,592 $ 5,954,111 Comparison Goods Furniture Stores $ - $ 1,007,208 $ 660,780 $ 1,112,903 $ 2,246,492 $ 8,316,059 $ 764,170 $ 1,287,036 Home Furnishings $ - $ 2,256,130 $ 457,117 $ 769,889 $ 1,554,087 $ 5,752,916 $ 528,640 $ 890,351 Stores Electronics & $ - $ 1,560,754 $ 982,220 $ 1,159,797 $ 3,248,744 $ 8,582,462 $ 1,174,905 $ 1,387,318 Appliance Stores Building Material, $ - $ 2,418,614 $ 2,240,612 $ 5,148,705 $ 7,653,375 $ 38,058,315 $ 2,690,165 $ 6,181,734 Garden Equip. Stores Clothing Stores $ - $ 8,011,672 $ 1,506,389 $ 3,565,045 $ 4,303,453 $ 25,662,000 $ 1,968,495 $ 4,658,673 Shoe Stores $ - $ 1,092,259 $ 205,371 $ 486,035 $ 586,705 $ 3,498,590 $ 268,372 $ 635,133 Jewellery, Luggage, $ - $ 739,928 $ 225,604 $ 329,254 $ 644,505 $ 2,370,047 $ 294,811 $ 430,258 Leather Goods Stores Sporting Goods, Hobbies, Books, Music $ - $ 3,949,359 $ 941,574 $ 1,968,595 $ 2,802,154 $ 14,761,800 $ 1,075,352 $ 2,248,291 Stores General Merchandise $ - $ 10,098,071 $ 3,206,142 $ 4,679,159 $ 9,300,719 $ 34,201,656 $ 3,994,350 $ 5,829,499 Stores Miscellaneous Store $ - $ 2,891,816 $ 909,447 $ 1,406,879 $ 2,684,370 $ 10,463,267 $ 1,069,286 $ 1,654,144 Retailers Food & Beverage All F&B (quick serve, full $ - $ 9,822,612 $ 4,283,607 $ 5,226,815 $ 12,046,122 $ 37,035,674 $ 5,322,772 $ 6,494,794 Total Expenditure $ - $ 73,135,332 $ 25,118,716 $ 39,667,625 $ 75,010,270 $ 286,158,458 $ 30,459,911 $ 48,224,742 Potential Source: Statistics Canada Retail Trade; Statistics Canada Survey of Household Spending; Environics Analytics; Urban Systems Ltd.

5.4.2 Student, Staff and Faculty Expenditures

There is limited available data for the daily on-campus expenditures of students, staff and faculty. While expenditures could, in theory, be roughly estimated using annual on-campus retail sales data for UBC-controlled space and attributing that spending on a pro-rata basis, real sales data was unavailable for this study.

Considering the lack of data, and in the interest of both simplicity and contiguity with past studies, USL has adopted the on-campus spending estimate of $1,300 per person reported in Coriolis’ 2011 study.14 This has been adjusted for inflation, bringing the estimated on-campus spend to $1,563 per person in 2018.

______14 This spending estimate was derived using 2007 SUB sales volumes, and a calculation based on the SUB’s proportion of total UBC retail space. While this calculation could be updated using SUB sales figures reported in the AMS financial statements, the transition from the old SUB to the NEST has likely had impacts on sales volumes and

Applying the above figure to all students, staff, and faculty, the estimated on-campus per-capita spending for 2016/17 was just over $109 million. This translates to $389 per commercial square foot.15

Table 13: Estimated On-Campus Commercial Expenditures (Students, Staff, Faculty) 2016/17 Total Sales / Students Staff Faculty Commercial sq.ft. Space (sq.ft.) Head Count 55,200 9,550 5,003 (2016/17) 280,113 $389 Est. Spend $ 86,281,464 $ 14,927,319 $ 7,820,039

5.4.3 Totem & Thunderbird Resident Expenditures

The estimated total on-campus expenditure potential for student residents at Totem Park and Thunderbird is estimated at approximately $3.14 million in 2018. It is projected to reach $5.17 million by 2028 (after 1,000 new bed units are added to Totem), and $5.71 million by 2038.

For the purposes of expenditure allocation and projections, the estimated on-campus spend is divided into the following categories16:

• 55% to Food & Beverage

• 45% to Retail & Services

• 5% to Entertainment and ‘other’

Table 15 below shows the breakdown of expenditures for Retail & Service and Food & Beverage for Thunderbird and Totem residents in 2018, and projections in 5-year increments to 2038.

Table 14: Totem + Thunderbird Retail, Service and F&B Expenditure Projection Totem + Thunderbird Total On-Campus Retail & Year Food & Beverage Effective Population Expenditure Service 2018 2,011 $3,143,264 $1,257,306 $1,728,795 2023 2,011 $3,303,602 $1,321,441 $1,816,981 2028 2,993 $5,167,508 $2,067,003 $2,842,129 2033 2,993 $5,431,103 $2,172,441 $2,987,107 2038 2,993 $5,708,144 $2,283,258 $3,139,479 Source: UBC Campus and Community Planning; Urban Systems Ltd.

______are thus unlikely representative of a longer term norm. Therefore, USL has adopted the older figures and adjusted them for inflation. 15 Includes all commercial space at Point Grey Peninsula: UEL, SUB, U.Blvd., Wesbrook Village and ‘other’ UBC. 16 Allocation of spending by category is based on assumptions used in the report entitled Commercial Floor Space Opportunity – Student Union Building, Simon Fraser University, prepared by Commercial Marketing Inc. in 2009. Ratios were derived from data provided by SFU Financial Aid on average costs for the academic year.

For forecasting purposes, the Retail & Service expenditure category is further sub-divided into component categories (e.g. grocery, health & personal care) based on the relative share of floor space allocated to each category at UBC in 2018.17

5.5 NET RETAIL EXPENDITURES

All figures presented in Section 5.4 above depict gross expenditures by category, projected into the future. In the case of trade area residents, gross expenditures are total dollars spent over the year, in all locations. For students in residence, the spending refers to total spending on campus only.

To determine the extent of market opportunity for new commercial floor space at Stadium Road Neighbourhood specifically, we must identify:

1. Reasonable assumptions for spending ‘capture’ on-site, by category, from each of the trade areas, and from Totem and Thunderbird residents; and

2. Reasonable ‘inflow’ spending assumptions, to account for all other spending sources (i.e. other students, faculty, staff, UEL residents, visitors) that could come to Stadium Road.

Capture rates and inflow factors are category-specific, and based on the following considerations:

• Location, mix, positioning and accessibility of competitive / complementary commercial areas, both on campus and off

• Overall potential accessibility, visibility, and adjacencies that may enhance or limit the opportunity

• Patterns of development and redevelopment in nearby areas

• Notable retail market voids and opportunities, and the appropriateness of those voids being met on-site vs. in other nodes/corridors

• Envisioned positioning and offering of the retail node, vis-à-vis other nodes, and within context of long-range planning considerations for UBC

Given the competitive context and the envisioned scale of future on-site residential, most comparison goods categories are likely inappropriate for this location. Rather, the focus of this retail and service node should be day-to-day retail and service commercial needs, along with a healthy mix of local, unique food & beverage options. Therefore, of the categories presented in the Gross Retail Expenditures table above, only the following are considered for the Stadium Road tenant mix:

______17 Based on “UBC Commercial Space” tabulations for January 2018, provided by Campus & Community Planning

• Grocery / specialty foods / convenience

• Beer, wine and liquor

• Health and personal care

• Miscellaneous retail

• Food & Beverage

• Variety of personal, professional and health services

Table 16 below shows the assumed market capture rates for each retail category considered for inclusion at Stadium Road.

Table 15: Assumed Market Capture Rates by Trade Area

Assumed Capture Rates by Trade Area Thunderbird PTA STA N STA S STA E Inflow (% of Category + Totem (Stadium) (Hawthorne) (Wesbrook) (Hampton) total) Res Grocery, Convenience + 22% 15% 6% 8% 30% 20% Specialty Foods Beer, Wine, 15% 10% 3% 5% 30% 5% Liquor Health & 10% 5% 2% 2% 10% 5% Personal Care Food & Beverage 15% 12% 5% 5% 20% 20% Miscellaneous 10% 5% 0% 2% 5% 5% Retail Source: Urban Systems Ltd., 2018

The capture rates consider both the existing and the emerging retail context at UBC, and at the nodes and corridors of the west-side neighbourhoods. These considerations include: notable retail gaps (and the appropriateness of filling those gaps at this location); future development (in-process and anticipated); planning context; new major tenant entrants and tenant exits from the market; local site considerations; and typical siting requirements of specific tenant categories. Some of the specific considerations for this analysis include:

• Additional 30,000 square feet of grocery-anchored retail at Lelem / Block F

• The pending closure, and likely redevelopment, of the Safeway site in Point Grey Village

• The planned addition of London Drugs to the Dunbar tenant mix (at the old Stong’s site)

• The likely near-term redevelopment of the Shoppers Drug Mart site on Dunbar, along with the older CRUs on the east side of Dunbar, south of West 28th Avenue

• Notable tenant gaps at UBC, particularly in a variety of service commercial categories such as naturopathic medicine, various professional services (e.g. legal, accounting, financial planning), chiropractic medicine, indoor cycling, and others

Applying the above capture rates to the spending figures presented in Section 5.4 results in on-site retail sales volume projections for Stadium Road Neighbourhood as shown in Table 17:18

Table 16: Projected Stadium Road Retail Expenditures

Stadium Road Retail Village Market Capture

Category 2023 2028 2033 2038

Grocery, Convenience + $ 3,896,000 $ 9,619,000 $ 11,217,000 $ 11,447,000 Specialty Foods

Beer, Wine, Liquor $ 592,000 $ 2,003,000 $ 2,710,000 $ 3,094,000

Health & Personal Care $ 447,000 $ 1,801,000 $ 2,552,000 $ 3,108,000

Food & Beverage $ 2,456,000 $ 5,934,000 $ 6,940,000 $ 7,130,000

Miscellaneous Retail $ 107,000 $ 519,000 $ 663,000 $ 736,000

TOTAL $ 7,498,000 $ 19,876,000 $ 24,082,000 $ 25,515,000

Source: Urban Systems Ltd., 2018

Projected sales volumes are translated into warranted floor area and tenant mix by applying reasonable estimates of sales per square foot. Service commercial floor space is then added to the retail space, based on a gross-up factor of 50%.

Resulting warranted floor area, as well as tenant mix and sit planning recommendations, are discussed in Section 6.

______18 Assumes that the first residents move in to Stadium Road neighbourhood in 2024, and full build-out is achieved by 2029.

6 RETAIL-COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY

6.1 WARRANTED FLOOR AREA

The commercial floor space opportunity at SRN is based on the foregoing analysis which considers potential support from a variety of patrons, including nearby neighbourhood residents, students in residence, and many other groups that work, visit, study, and play at UBC. The spending capture rates which form the basis of the floor area support calculations account for both the existing and emerging competitive retail context, including notable retail and service commercial gaps at UBC.

Total warranted retail and service commercial floor area for all anticipated sources of demand at Stadium Road is summarized in Table 18 below. They are calculated by applying standard retail performance metrics (sales per square foot per year), by category, to the net expenditure figures presented in Table 17.

Table 17: Supportable Floor Area Summary – Stadium Road Neighbourhood

Warranted Retail + Commercial Floor Area Summary 2023 2028 2033 2038 Convenience Retail * PTA 0 5,000 6,000 7,000 STAs 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Thunderbird + Totem 500 500 1,000 1,000 Inflow 1,000 5,000 7,000 7,000 Total Convenience Retail 6,500 16,500 21,000 23,000 Food & Beverage PTA 0 2,000 2,000 3,000 STAs 3,000 3,000 4,000 4,000 Thunderbird + Totem 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Inflow 1,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 Total F&B 5,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 Service Commercial ** PTA 0 3,000 4,000 5,000 STAs 4,000 5,000 5,000 6,000 Thunderbird + Totem 0 1,000 1,000 1,000 Inflow 1,000 4,000 5,000 5,000 Total Service Commercial 5,000 13,000 15,000 17,000 Grand Total 16,500 38,500 46,000 51,000

* Includes grocery, specialty foods, convenience, liquor, health + personal care, and miscellaneous retail ** Includes personal, professional, health, and recreational services

The analysis suggests a clear opportunity for a modestly-scaled, high-quality retail commercial node of approximately 50,000 square feet, with 15,000 square feet supportable within 5 years and nearly 40,000 square feet supportable within 10 years. Note that this 50,000 square foot figure should be considered a reasonable ‘mid-point’ based on typical floorplates and sales performance metrics. It should therefore be considered with a buffer of +/- 10,000 square feet.

The tenant mix would ideally be anchored by a small natural foods market of 11,000 to 15,000 square feet, along with a signature restaurant/pub, a bakery/café, and ultimately a few additional quick and/or full-serve restaurants. All major tenants should have some connection to UBC Farm and other locally-sourced produce and products. The anchor grocery tenant could also include a personal/care pharmacy component (which would increase its size), or there could be a standalone neighbourhood-sized pharmacy. There is also opportunity for a privately-operated beer and wine store. Service commercial uses would include a variety of personal, professional, recreational and health services. A more detailed discussion of the proposed tenant mix is provided in Section 6.3.

Table 19 below provides a summary of warranted retail-commercial floor area by category. The totals differ slightly from Table 18 due to rounding.

Table 18: Warranted Commercial Floor Area at Stadium Road, by Category Warranted Commercial Floor Area by Category (square feet)*

Category 2023 2028 2033 2038 Grocery & Specialty Foods 4,000 11,000 13,000 13,000 Beer, Wine, Liquor 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Health & Personal Care 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Restaurant F&B 4,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 Miscellaneous Retail 0 1,000 2,000 2,000 Service Commercial 5,000 13,000 15,000 16,000

Total 15,000 38,000 46,000 50,000

*Based on typical retail performance metrics ($/sf/annum).

6.2 COMMERCIAL LEASE RATES

Relevant comparable areas for Stadium Road commercial space include the following areas:

• University Boulevard: basic rental rates are reportedly in the $60-$70 per square foot for fast food outlets

• Wesbrook Village: asking rates are $40 per square foot base rent

• University Marketplace: ground floor space can reportedly generate rents of over $60 per square foot.

Note that rents can vary significantly by location and tenant type.

6.3 TENANT MIX RECOMMENDATIONS The future retail and commercial node at Stadium Road must be programmed and positioned to offer the best opportunity for both near-term and long-term viability. This node will be relatively small (although larger than the planned node at Lelem), and it will be operating in relative isolation from other supporting commercial uses and large ‘anchor’ tenants. As such, it must be designed and programmed in a way that:

• Offers maximum visibility and presence to the most patrons possible

• Integrates into and leverages proximity to the unique mix of amenities on-site and nearby, including the botanical gardens, playing fields, athletic facilities, and ideally future co-location with a new strength and conditioning centre

• Offers a unique and compelling tenant mix with strong connections to local producers

Commercial businesses in non-traditional nodes will often require at least short-term tenant subsidies. There must be realistic expectations about phasing in tenants as the neighbourhood grows, with flexibility and creativity both in leasing arrangements and adaptability of space.

Based on the outputs of the forecasts, we recommend the following tenant mix, by category. As noted above, the 50,000 square foot target is considered the ‘mid-point’, based on a range of typical retail floorplates. Flexibility and convertibility should be part of the plan, to be able to respond to changing market conditions.

Table 19: Stadium Road Neighbourhood Illustrative Tenant Mix Size Range (sq.ft.) Tenant Type Illustrative Tenants Low High Mid-point Retail & Restaurants Local, Natural Grocery 11,000 15,000 13,000 Meinhardt, Pomme, Donald's, Kins Specialty Foods /Café 1,000 2,000 1,500 Be Fresh, Soap Dispensary, Ethnic Foods Café / Bakery 1,000 2,000 1,500 Terra, Brekka, Small Victory Health / Personal Care 2,000 4,000 3,000 Pharmasave, Rexall, Pure, or in grocery Local Signature Pub/Restaurant 2,000 3,000 2,500 Independent Wine & Spirits (Private) 2,000 3,000 2,500 independent Quick Service Restaurant 1,200 1,500 1,350 Freshii, Jugo Juice Quick Service Restaurant 900 1,500 1,200 Sushi Quick Service Restaurant 900 1,200 1,050 Ramen Quick Service Restaurant 900 1,200 1,050 Sandwiches

Quick Service Restaurant 900 1,200 1,050 Independent Coffee (e.g. Matchstick, Pallet) Quick Service Restaurant 900 1,200 1,050 independent or chain Florist / Misc. Retail 1,000 2,000 1,500 Independent Other F&B 2,000 4,000 3,000 Sub-Total 27,700 42,800 35,250 Service Commercial Indoor Cycling / Fitness 1,500 2,000 1,750 Independent, Local Chain Physio / Chiro 1,500 2,000 1,750 Independent professionals Child Care / Early Learning 1,500 2,000 1,750 Kids & Company Salon / Barber 800 1,000 900 Independent Skin Care / Aromatherapy 800 1,000 900 Independent Hair /Nails 800 1,200 1,000 Independent or Local Chain Accounting / Financial 1,000 2,000 1,500 Independent Medical / Dental 1,000 2,000 1,500 Other Services 2,000 4,000 3,000 Independent or Chain Sub-Total 10,900 17,200 14,050 Grand Total 38,600 60,000 49,300

• The grocery anchor should be a small-scale store of at least 10,000 square feet (plus back-of- house), focusing on natural and organic foods, with items sourced as locally as possible;

• There may be an opportunity for a farmers’ market, and perhaps a small canning / bottling facility19

• The restaurant / pub should be a unique local operation, geared around sports, local foods (UBC Farm connection), and local beers / spirits

• The bakery/café should also offer space for gathering and studying. This could be done in a café-adjacent space, similar to MBA House in Wesbrook Village

• The quick-serve restaurants (QSRs) should be a mix of chains (both local and national) and independents

• The leasing strategy for personal and professional service spaces should focus on filling clear market gaps on campus, while also acknowledging that there will be opportunity to duplicate some of the offerings in Wesbrook and University Village/Marketplace due to population growth in the trade areas, and of the student body more broadly

• In addition to indoor fitness space (be it CrossFit, indoor cycling, or other fitness opportunities), outdoor fitness should be strongly considered as a neighbourhood amenity. This could be in the form of a fitness circuit, possibly along future trail connections leading to Pacific Spirit Park

• There are also opportunities for other non-commercial uses, either integrated into the commercial village, or dispersed through the neighbourhood. Note that this would be in addition

______19 Note that farmers markets can be challenging businesses as they often have difficulties obtaining financing through lending institutions.

to the square footage recommendations for retail-commercial. An example is shared ‘maker’ spaces and multi-purpose gathering/event spaces, both indoor and outdoor

• There may be other opportunities for non-retail uses oriented around UBC’s varsity programs, and history of sport at UBC. There may also be an opportunity to have Sport BC develop a presence in the neighbourhood in the form of office space

• As discussed previously, the co-location of a retail village with a new, expanded varsity strength training centre would be an ideal situation for Stadium Road, as this would offer an additional significant year-round client base for retail and service providers.

In addition to the warranted in-line retail and service commercial, there are also opportunities to serve the less frequent, event-driven high demand periods through mobile vending (food trucks) and movable kiosks. These types of vendors could be brought in to serve the area for major events such as games at Thunderbird Stadium and moved elsewhere when demand is lower. This approach to serving the demand during intense periods of high demand avoids over-building in-line spaces that may be prove difficult to lease, or to maintain long-term viable businesses.

6.4 COMMERCIAL PLANNING CONSIDERATIONS

• East Mall Presence: The retail and service commercial would ideally have considerable presence along East Mall, and be located toward the north-east corner of the study area. This location would have a number of advantages:

• Visibility to pass-by traffic on East Mall (vehicle, bike, pedestrian)

• Visibility and proximity to users of Thunderbird Park

• Ease of access for Stadium Road and Hawthorn Place residents, and students at Totem and Thunderbird.

• Shortest distance to residents at Hampton Place and points north

• Within a 5-7 minute walk from Wesbrook Village

• Visibility & Wayfinding: While the retail-commercial node itself should be oriented at or near the northeast corner of the study area, there must be strong signage and wayfinding along West 16th Avenue to alert passing traffic to the presence of the commercial node, and to entice some of that traffic into the area.

• Stadium Integration: The layout of the retail area should have an eye toward maximum integration with the new Thunderbird Stadium – which should itself be more ‘open’ and oriented to community use. This could include outward facing retail, service and restaurant space built into the stadium itself, and/or perhaps a multi-use ‘entry plaza’ feature that is lined with retail, service commercial, and food & beverage uses.

• Multi-Use Plaza: much of the retail / commercial should be oriented around a multi-use plaza, which could also serve as a point of entry into the new Thunderbird Stadium and as part of a stronger connection across East Mall to Thunderbird Place. A multi-use plaza should be programmable to allow for outdoor seating and both formal and informal gatherings and make it easy for those coming to and from the stadium to stop in at any of the retailers or service providers.

• West 16th Avenue: In its current configuration, West 16th Avenue plays a problematic role in ‘anonymising’ neighbourhoods on both sides (Wesbrook and Stadium), due to: (1) Speed of traffic passing by, (2) complicated / stressful intersection due to the traffic circle, and (3) unpleasant pedestrian or bike linkage across W. 16th. Opportunities to create better connectivity between Wesbrook Place and Stadium Road Neighbourhood should be explored.

• Natural Areas: retention of natural areas should be a top priority. This is what makes the neighbourhood unique, and a key factor that will attract people to come and spend time there.

6.5 LESSONS FROM OTHER DEVELOPMENTS

There are some notable lessons learned from each of UniverCity (SFU) and Lansdowne Park (stadium-proximate redevelopment in Ottawa) that are applicable to the development of Stadium Road neighbourhood.

UNIVERCITY @ SFU • UniverCity, while now of a considerably larger scale, began in much the same way as the Stadium Road Neighbourhood retail/commercial hub: as a new high street-type development, of modest scale, in an emerging residential neighbourhood.

• Initially, retail viability was an issue. Rent subsidies were required, and many prime tenants initially left. It was only after a critical population mass was achieved that some stability emerged, and an anchor tenant (Nester’s Market) was secured

• There must be realistic expectations around the phasing in of tenants.

LANSDOWNE PARK, OTTAWA • The redevelopment of Lansdown Park offers lessons on integration of retail elements directly into the outward facing portions of a stadium – in this case a significantly renovated existing stadium

• Completed in 2013, Ottawa’s Lansdowne Park and TD Place Stadium have been fit within a larger redevelopment effort that included construction of new housing and retail, and replaced the arena’s former parking fields with new parkland.

• A public space/park concourse surrounds the stadium, integrating it into the broader neighbourhood

• On the outside face of the northern grandstand, instead of a blank wall facing the street, 5 retail CRUs have been constructed, creating a lively, double-loaded east-west street.

• One of these CRUs contains the ticketing office for the stadium

• The other four contain a mix of quick-serve food & beverage, and fitness-related service commercial

Figure 24: Ground Floor Retail, Lansdowne Park, Ottawa

Figure 25: Retail along north face of TD Place Stadium