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Restoration of Inland Waterway E40 Dnieper – Vistula: from Strategy to Planning Maritime Institute in Gdansk 80-830 Gdansk, Dlugi Targ 41/42 phone (+4858) 301 16 41 Restoration of Inland Waterway E40 Dnieper – Vistula: from Strategy to Planning Final Feasibility Study Report Corrected Report (According to the remarks and requirements introduced by Willem Zondag, Legal and Technical Consultant IWT in the: Evaluation Report on the Restoration of Inland Waterway E40 Dnieper- Vistula: from Strategy to Planning) GDANSK, December 2015 Restoration of Inland Waterway E40 Dnieper – Vistula: from Strategy to Planning - IPBU809/E40/FSR/Service/2 Consortium: Maritime Institute in Gdansk – Consortium Leader National Scientific Academy of Belarus Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics ISL, Germany Republican Unitary Maintenance and Construction Enterprise Dnepro-Bug Waterway, Ukraine European-Ukrainian Business and Innovation Agency EUA, Germany The Study was conducted as part of contract no. IPBU809/E40/FSR/Service/2 Number of copies XXX Gdansk, December 2015 2 Maritime Institute in Gdansk, Długi Targ 41/42, 80-830 Gdansk www.im.gda.pl Restoration of Inland Waterway E40 Dnieper – Vistula: from Strategy to Planning - IPBU809/E40/FSR/Service/2 Contributing institutions: Polish Embassy in Minks (Department of Trade and Investment Promotion), Andrzej Szarata Consulting, DCT – Deep Container Terminal in Gdansk, Dornier Consulting GmbH, DHV Hydroprojekt Ltd.., Energa SA, Global Compact Network Poland – UN Secretary General Initiative, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute in Warsaw, Ministry of Transport and Communication of Republic of Belarus, Ministry for Environment of Poland, Ministry of natural Resources and Environmental Protection of Belarus, Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, Ministry for Infrastructure and Development of Poland, PPW „EKOSOFT”, Gdansk Technical University, Cracow Technical University, Regional Water Management Board Cracow, Regional Water Management Board Warsaw, Przedsiębiorstwo Państwowe "Belgiprodor", Kazimierz Wielki University in Bydgoszcz, University of Gdansk, Maria Curie-Skłodowska University in Lublin, Marshalls Office in Lublin, Bydgoszcz Shipping ltd. 3 Maritime Institute in Gdansk, Dlugi Targ 41/42, 80-830 Gdansk www.im.gda.pl Restoration of Inland Waterway E40 Dnieper – Vistula: from Strategy to Planning - IPBU809/E40/FSR/Service/2 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................................. 8 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................... 10 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 12 I. ANALYSIS OF TRANSPORT AND MARKET ECONOMICS ................................................. 14 1. Analysis of the transport market in the catchment area of the international waterway E40........ 14 1.1. Methodology and delimitation of the area ........................................................................ 14 1.2. Inland shipping in EU ....................................................................................................... 15 1.3. Cargo flows and transport services for trade exchange .................................................... 16 1.4. Trade exchange between Belarus, Poland and Ukraine .................................................... 19 1.5. Transit ............................................................................................................................... 22 1.6. Inland shipping ................................................................................................................. 24 1.7. Transport corridors and logistics infrastructure ................................................................ 26 2. Assessment of the potential for capturing the market and cargo supply flows for inland shipping ..................................................................................................................................................... 30 2.1. Inland waterway shipping as a part of transport system ................................................... 30 2.2. Cargo supply ..................................................................................................................... 31 2.2.1. Factors generating demand for cargo transport ........................................................... 31 2.2.2. Basic macroeconomic indicators for Poland, Belarus and Ukraine ............................. 31 2.2.3. Cargo supply forecast for inland shipping ................................................................... 32 2.3. Modal split ........................................................................................................................ 38 2.4. Results of the forecast ....................................................................................................... 38 2.5. Passenger traffic and water tourism .................................................................................. 40 3. Optimisation ................................................................................................................................ 40 3.1. Shipping route ................................................................................................................... 40 3.2. Shipping rates ................................................................................................................... 41 3.3. Operation cost of the inland waterway channel ................................................................ 43 3.4. Comparison of inland shipping tariffs .............................................................................. 47 3.5. Summary ........................................................................................................................... 48 4. Economic analysis – cost – benefit analysis (quantitative assessment) ....................................... 48 4.1. Identification of variants ................................................................................................... 48 4.2. Investment costs ................................................................................................................ 49 4.3. Investment variants ........................................................................................................... 50 4 Maritime Institute in Gdansk, Dlugi Targ 41/42, 80-830 Gdansk www.im.gda.pl Restoration of Inland Waterway E40 Dnieper – Vistula: from Strategy to Planning - IPBU809/E40/FSR/Service/2 4.4. Revenues, operating and maintenance costs ..................................................................... 51 4.5. Other expected unquantifiable costs and externalities from IWW E40 revitalisation ...... 52 4.6. Summary ........................................................................................................................... 53 II. ASSESSMENT OF SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS ............................................ 55 1. Assessment of socioeconomic effects ......................................................................................... 55 1.1. Scope of the analysis of the area bound for IWW E40 ..................................................... 55 1.2. Demography of development area of IWW E40 route and bordering regions ................. 57 1.2.1. Development trends in demographic structure ............................................................ 57 1.2.2. Employment and affluence level ................................................................................. 61 1.2.3. Entrepreneurship and social activity ............................................................................ 63 1.2.4. Education ..................................................................................................................... 64 1.3. Economic potential ........................................................................................................... 65 1.3.1. Economic development of border regions and other areas along E40 waterway route 65 1.3.2. Main economic sectors of the regions ......................................................................... 66 1.3.3. Land use ....................................................................................................................... 67 1.3.4. Foreign investments ..................................................................................................... 70 1.4. SWOT analysis of socioeconomic profile of area along E40 waterway ........................... 71 1.5. Summary ........................................................................................................................... 74 2. Environmental impact assessment (EIA)..................................................................................... 75 2.1. Basic preconditions of environmental impact assessment ................................................ 75 2.2. Polish section of IWW E40 .............................................................................................. 77 2.3. Belarusian section of IWW E40 ....................................................................................... 82 2.4. Ukrainian section of IWW E40 ........................................................................................ 88 2.5. The impact of the project on water quality and aquatic organisms .................................. 89 2.6. Changes in the level of noise,
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