U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management
Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats Royal Gorge Field Office
Horizontal bar thickness should match the title font thickness A Supplement to the Draft Easternwith two Cobar loradothicknesses Resource between the Management logo and bar and betweenPlan Supporting Text the title text and the bar.
Photo should be “striking.” Cover photo: Bighorn sheep along the Gold Belt Byway Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan
Prepared by U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management Royal Gorge Field Office Ca on City, CO
April 2019 This page intentionally left blank.
Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION...... 1 2. RISK OF CONTACT MODEL ...... 1 2.1. Risk of Contact Model Data Inputs ...... 2 2.1.1. Bighorn Sheep Overall Range ...... 2 2.1.2. Foray Distance Distributions ...... 3 2.1.3. Suitable Habitat Model ...... 4 2.1.4. Range Allotments...... 5 2.1.5. Ram and Ewe Foray Probabilities...... 5 2.1.6. Game Management Unit Data ...... 5 2.1.7. Risk of Contact Model Output Example ...... 5 2.2. Risk of Contact Model Analysis Results ...... 9 2.3. Discussion ...... 9 3. REFERENCES ...... 81
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1. Default Hells Canyon, Idaho, Foray Distance Probabilities for Bighorn Sheep ...... 4 Table 2.2. Bighorn Sheep Relative Habitat Preference Values by Habitat Class ...... 5 Table 2.3. Game Management Unit Name, Numbers, and Sex Ratios Used in the Draft Eastern Colorado RMP RoC Analysis ...... 10 Table 2.4. Estimated Annual Contact Probabilities and Rates of GMUS Containing Bighorn Sheep That May Come in Contact with 12 Mile Park North Allotment ...... 12 Table 2.5. Risk of Contact Model Results for Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan...... 12 Table 2.6. Estimated Years between Potential Disease Events for the Eastern Colorado RMP Planning Area (RoC Model) ...... 47
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1. Bighorn Sheep Overall Range Used in the Risk of Contact Analysis ...... 77 Figure 2.2. Foray Probability Raster Generated by the Foray Analysis for Apishapa GMU in the Risk of Contact Analysis ...... 78 Figure 2.3. CPW Rocky Mountain Bighorn Sheep Suitable Habitat Model ...... 79 Figure 2.4. Game Management Units Used in the Draft Eastern Colorado RMP Risk of Contact Analysis ...... 80
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan i Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
CHHR Core herd home range CPW Colorado Parks and Wildlife GMU Game management unit RGFO Royal Gorge Field Office RMP Resource management plan RoC Risk of contact
ii A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
1. INTRODUCTION Bighorn sheep, particularly rams, make occasional long-distance forays beyond their home range. Singer, Spicer, and Zeigenfuss (2001) defined these forays as any short-term movement of an animal away from and back to its home range. This life-history trait can put bighorn sheep at risk of contact with domestic sheep and goats, particularly when suitable habitats are well connected and overlap with domestic sheep and goat use areas (Singer et al. 2000; Gross, Singer, and Moses 2000). Extensive scientific literature supports the relationship between disease in bighorn sheep populations and contact with domestic sheep and goats (e.g., Foreyt and Jessup 1982; Onderka and Wishart 1984; Callan et al. 1991; Foreyt 1994; George et al. 2008; Miller and Wolf 2011). Bighorn sheep respiratory disease events have been documented subsequent to observations of bighorn sheep near or in contact with domestic sheep (Foreyt and Jessup 1982; George et al. 2008). In addition, controlled laboratory research results provide strong evidence that bighorn sheep have a high probability of contracting fatal pneumonia following contact with domestic sheep and goats (Onderka and Wishart 1984; Callan et al. 1991; Foreyt 1994). The Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Wild Sheep Working Group recommends that land management agencies and state wildlife agencies cooperate to complete comprehensive assessments of grazing allotments to evaluate the risk of contact between bighorn sheep and domestic sheep and goats (WAFWA 2012). The assessments help inform the land use planning process. The Bureau of Land Management, Royal Gorge Field Office (RGFO), used GIS modeling and the Risk of Contact (RoC) model developed by the United States Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management to quantify the risk of contact between bighorn sheep and domestic sheep and goats in the Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan (RMP) planning area (BLM 2019).
2. RISK OF CONTACT MODEL The interaction of dispersing bighorn sheep with grazing allotments is related to the number of bighorn sheep in a herd, proximity of allotments to a bighorn sheep’s overall range, distribution of bighorn sheep suitable habitat and travel linkages across the landscape, and frequency and distance of bighorn sheep forays outside of its overall range (USFS 2015). The RoC model is a geospatial tool that quantitatively estimates the annual probability that a single bighorn sheep ram and single ewe will contact a grazing allotment and the total number of bighorn sheep rams and ewes that may contact a grazing allotment in a single year (USFS 2015). The model uses several data inputs such as the bighorn sheep Core Herd Home Range (CHHR), bighorn sheep suitable habitat model, relative habitat preference, bighorn sheep foray distance probabilities, and bighorn sheep herd size and sex ratios.
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 1 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
The RGFO adapted the RoC model for the Eastern Colorado RMP planning area, using the best available scientific data. The RGFO remains in contact with Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW) to ensure proper data use and to reach agreement upon data adaptations and assumptions (B. Dreher, CPW, personal communication, 2017). Data inputs provided by CPW were the following: 1. Bighorn sheep suitable habitat model 2. Bighorn sheep overall range 3. Bighorn sheep adult population and sex ratios per Game Management Unit (GMU) Data adaptations and assumptions are as follows: 1. Bighorn sheep overall range is used as a surrogate to the CHHR due to insufficient point data for bighorn sheep in the Eastern Colorado RMP planning area. 2. The Hells Canyon bighorn sheep ram and ewe foray probabilities is used due to insufficient point data for bighorn sheep in the Eastern Colorado RMP planning area. 3. The Hells Canyon bighorn sheep foray distance distribution is used due to insufficient point data for bighorn sheep in the Eastern Colorado RMP planning area. 4. The Hells Canyon bighorn sheep relative habitat preference values is used due to insufficient point data for bighorn sheep in the Eastern Colorado RMP planning area. 5. The maximum distance the model calculates foray probability rings is 35 kilometers (21.7 miles); therefore, bighorn sheep populations within approximately 35 kilometers of the Eastern Colorado RMP planning area boundary are selected for the RoC analysis. 6. Contact probabilities are calculated per GMU, the scale at which CPW determines bighorn sheep populations and sex ratios. 7. The default bighorn sheep sex ratio (0.35 rams to 0.65 ewes) provided by the RoC tool is used if sex ratios are unavailable for a GMU.
2.1. Risk of Contact Model Data Inputs
2.1.1. Bighorn Sheep Overall Range The RoC model has the capability to calculate a CHHR from point data collected from live animals through radio telemetry or global positioning system collars. The CHHR creates a polygon that depicts 95 percent of the space used by bighorn sheep; however, the BLM did not have enough point data to accurately calculate the CHHR across the entire Eastern Colorado RMP planning area; so bighorn sheep overall range as mapped by CPW was used as a surrogate to best approximate this area (Figure 2.1; CPW 2017). Bighorn sheep overall range is defined as
2 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats the area that encompasses all known activity areas within the observed range of a bighorn sheep population (CPW 2017).
2.1.2. Foray Distance Distributions The foray analysis calculates the probability a bighorn sheep leaves its overall range and contacts a specific allotment. Foray distance distributions for individual rams or ewes were calculated for each 1-km-wide concentric ring emanating from the overall range until the probability was equal to zero (Table 2.1). The foray distance distributions were derived from 12 years of Hells Canyon area telemetry data used as part of the Payette National Forest analysis. The foray distance distributions exhibited by the Hells Canyon area bighorn sheep are consistent with published observations of bighorn sheep movements from several other areas in western North America (USFS 2015). A map displaying the foray probability raster generated by the foray probability analysis is included for the Apishapa GMU (Figure 2.2). Figure 2.2 shows the allotments within 35 km of the overall bighorn sheep home range, the distance the model calculates foray probability rings. The foray probability output occurs on a gradient, with the highest probability to foray near the overall home range.
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Table 2.1. Default Hells Canyon, Idaho, Foray Distance Probabilities for Bighorn Sheep Ram Foray Ewe Foray Ram Foray Ewe Foray Distance (km) Distance (km) Probability Probability Probability Probability 1 1.0000 1.0000 24 0.1355 0.0342 2 0.9512 0.7794 25 0.1129 0.0341 3 0.9019 0.6031 26 0.0923 0.0341 4 0.8520 0.4917 27 0.0743 0.0341 5 0.8012 0.4247 28 0.0588 0.0341 6 0.7496 0.3575 29 0.0460 0.0341 7 0.6978 0.2681 30 0.0355 0.0337 8 0.6463 0.1801 31 0.0271 0.0315 9 0.5961 0.1264 32 0.0205 0.0252 10 0.5480 0.1069 33 0.0152 0.0148 11 0.5031 0.1028 34 0.0110 0.0057 12 0.4619 0.1023 35 0.0078 0.0013 13 0.4247 0.1023 36 0.0053 0.0002 14 0.3914 0.1023 37 0.0035 0.0000 15 0.3614 0.1023 38 0.0022 0.0000 16 0.3342 0.1022 39 0.0013 0.0000 17 0.3087 0.1016 40 0.0008 0.0000 18 0.2841 0.0981 41 0.0004 0.0000 19 0.2597 0.0873 42 0.0002 0.0000 20 0.2350 0.0683 43 0.0001 0.0000 21 0.2099 0.0492 44 0.0000 0.0000 22 0.1847 0.0383 45 0.0000 0.0000 23 0.1596 0.0348
2.1.3. Suitable Habitat Model Bighorn sheep occupy rugged canyons, foothills, and mountainous terrain at elevations ranging from 1,450 to 10,500 feet, selecting habitat containing elements such as steep-sloped escape terrain, adequate forage availability, and horizontal visibility (USFS 2013; O’Brien et al. 2014). CPW developed a bighorn sheep suitable habitat model for the Eastern Colorado RMP planning area in 2016 (Figure 2.3; CPW 2016). All areas mapped within the suitable habitat model were assigned to one of three habitat classes: suitable habitat, travel linkages, and non-habitat. The three habitat classes were assigned a relative preference value describing the predicted use of each habitat (Table 2.2). The relative habitat preference values were derived using the Hells Canyon bighorn sheep herd point data (USFS 2015).
4 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Table 2.2. Bighorn Sheep Relative Habitat Preference Values by Habitat Class
Habitat Class Habitat Name Relative Preference
1 Suitable 1 2 Travel Linkages 0.177 10 Non-habitat 0.029
2.1.4. Range Allotments The RGFO used range allotment data described in the Draft Eastern Colorado RMP (BLM 2019) for the RoC model. The RoC model cannot analyze multi-part polygons; therefore, if an allotment was broken into multiple disconnected pieces, the allotment name was appended with A, B, C, etc., to create a unique name for each feature. Each feature was then analyzed individually in the RoC model. In total, 1,042 grazing allotment pieces were used for the analysis.
2.1.5. Ram and Ewe Foray Probabilities Ram and ewe foray probabilities were derived from the Hells Canyon bighorn sheep herd. The default values of 0.141 (14.1 percent) for rams and 0.015 (1.5 percent) for ewes are based on 29,800 summer-season (May–October) observations of bighorn sheep in 13 Hells Canyon area herds, collected over a 12-year period. The values represent the proportion of radio-collared individuals that were observed outside their range during the summer grazing season (USFS 2015).
2.1.6. Game Management Unit Data CPW provided RGFO population data and ram/ewe sex ratios for all bighorn sheep GMUs that could be affected by grazing in the Eastern Colorado RMP planning area (Figure 2.4, Table 2.3). The maximum distance the RoC model calculates foray probability rings is 35 kilometers (21.7 miles); therefore, GMUs within approximately 35 kilometers of the Eastern Colorado RMP planning area boundary were selected for the RoC analysis. In instances where herd specific sex ratios were not available, the default sex ratio (0.35 rams to 0.65 ewes) provided by the RoC tool was used (USFS 2015).
2.1.7. Risk of Contact Model Output Example An example has been provided to help understand the RoC model calculations and outputs. Table 2.4 shows estimated contact rates from the analysis on the 12 Mile Park North allotment. The values in this table directly correspond to the output of the RoC model. The individual output from the RoC model for each GMU is summed for each allotment. The following
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 5 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
discussion is one example of how the rates in Table 2.4 are derived and the method for calculating the estimated risk of contact for each allotment. Single Ram Probability: Annual/seasonal probability that a typical ram will leave the bighorn sheep overall range and contact the allotment. 12 Mile Park North Example: Seven GMUs contain bighorn sheep populations that may contact the 12 Mile Park North allotment. The RoC model generates seven unique probabilities that a single ram from a specific GMU will leave its overall range and contact the allotment. The probabilities are additive; to determine the overall probability that any single ram will contact the allotment, all seven probabilities need to be summed: (0.000000509 [PW] + 0.000000936 [BC] + 0.00000124 [DR] + 0.00000635 [BVC] + 0.0000334 [SR] + 0.0000388 [GC] + 0.000087 [AR] = 0.000168235 [Total]) In this example, there is an estimated annual probability of 0.01682 percent that any given ram will leave the bighorn sheep overall range in any of the seven GMUs and contact the 12 Mile Park North allotment in any given year. Single Ewe Probability: Annual/seasonal probability that a typical ewe will leave the bighorn sheep overall range and contact this allotment. 12 Mile Park North Example: A similar method applies to the single ewe probability as was applied to the single ram probability: (0.00000000899 [PW] + 0.000000116 [BC] + 0.000000128 [DR] + 0.0000005 [BVC] + 0.000000856 [SR] + 0.00000219 [GC] + 0.00000759 [AR] = 0.000011389 [Total]) In this example, there is an estimated annual probability of 0.00114 percent that any given ewe will leave the bighorn sheep overall range in any of the seven GMUs and contact the 12 Mile Park North allotment in any given year. All Rams Contact Rate: Expected number of rams contacting an allotment each year. 12 Mile Park North Example: There are seven GMUs containing bighorn sheep populations that may contact the 12 Mile Park North allotment. The all rams contact rate for an allotment is calculated by multiplying the number of rams in a GMU with the single ram probability for each GMU that may interact with the allotment. The contacts from each GMU are then summed yielding a total number of contacts: Pueblo West GMU: 10 rams and their individual contact probabilities (10 * 0.000000509). It is estimated that Pueblo West rams will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.000005 times per year. Browns Canyon GMU: 20 rams and their individual contact probabilities (20 * 0.000000936). It is estimated that Browns Canyon rams will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.0000187 times per year.
6 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Dome Rock GMU: 8 rams and their individual contact probabilities (8 * 0.00000124). It is estimated that Dome Rock rams will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.00000991 times per year. Beaver Creek GMU: 3 rams and their individual contact probabilities (3 * 0.00000635). It is estimated that Beaver Creek rams will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.0000191 times per year. Shelf Road GMU: 20 rams and their individual contact probabilities (20 * 0.0000334). It is estimated that the Shelf Road rams will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.000667931 times per year. Grape Creek GMU: 63 rams and their individual contact probabilities (63 * 0.0000388). It is estimated that the Grape Creek rams will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.002446742 times per year. Arkansas River GMU: 20 rams and their individual contact probabilities (20 * 0.000087). It is estimated that the Arkansas River rams will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.001740498 times per year. The rate of contact for all rams and all GMUs are summed: 0.00000509 [PW] + 0.0000187 [BC] + 0.00000991 [DR] + 0.0000191 [BVC] + 0.000667931 [SR] + 0.002446742 [GC] + 0.001740498 [AR] = 0.004907971 [Total] In this example, it is estimated that bighorn sheep rams will contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.004907971 times per year, or one ram contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment is expected approximately every (1/ 0.004907971 =) 204 years. All Ewes Contact Rate: Expected number of ewes contacting the allotment each year. 12 Mile Park North Example: A similar method applies to the all ewes contact rate as was applied to the all rams contact rate: Pueblo West GMU: 10 ewes and their individual contact probabilities (10 * 0.00000000899). It is estimated that the Pueblo West ewes will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.0000000899 times per year. Browns Canyon GMU: 50 ewes and their individual contact probabilities (50 * 0.000000116). It is estimated that Browns Canyon ewes will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.00000579 times per year. Dome Rock GMU: 16 ewes and their individual contact probabilities (16 * 0.000000128). It is estimated that Dome Rock ewes will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.00000205 times per year.
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Beaver Creek GMU: 5 ewes and their individual contact probabilities (5 * 0.0000005). It is estimated that Beaver Creek ewes will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.0000025 times per year. Shelf Road GMU: 50 ewes and their individual contact probabilities (50 * 0.000000856). It is estimated that the Shelf Road rams will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.0000428 times per year. Grape Creek GMU: 107 ewes and their individual contact probabilities (107 * 0.00000219). It is estimated that the Grape Creek ewes will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.000234351 times per year. Arkansas River GMU: 50 ewes and their individual contact probabilities (50 * 0.00000759). It is estimated that the Arkansas River rams will foray from the overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.000379305 times per year.
The rate of contact for all ewes and all GMUs are summed: 0.0000000899 [PW] + 0.00000579 [BC] + 0.00000205 [DR] + 0.0000025 [BVC] + 0.0000428 [SR] + 0.000234351 [GC] + 0.000379305 [AR] = 0.00066886 [Total] In this example, it is estimated that bighorn sheep ewes will make contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment 0.00066886 times per year, or one ewe contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment is expected approximately every (1/ 0.00066886 =) 1,429 years. All Herd Contact Rate: Average number of adult bighorn sheep (rams plus ewes) expected to foray from the bighorn sheep overall range and contact the allotment each year. 12 Mile Park North Example: To calculate the all herd contact rate, the all rams and all ewes contact rates are summed for all GMUs that may interact with the allotment: Pueblo West: 0.00000509 [Rams] + 0.0000000899 [Ewes] = 0.00000518 Browns Canyon: 0.0000187 [Rams] + 0.00000579 [Ewes] = 0.0000245 Dome Rock: 0.00000991 [Rams] + 0.00000205 [Ewes] = 0.000012 Beaver Creek: 0.0000191 [Rams] + 0.0000025 [Ewes] = 0.0000216 Shelf Road: 0.000667931 [Rams] + 0.0000428 [Ewes] = 0.000710708 Grape Creek: 0.0024446742 [Rams] + 0.000234351 [Ewes] = 0.002681093 Arkansas River: 0.00174 [Rams] + 0.000379 [Ewes] = 0.002119803 Based on the aggregate ram and ewe contact rates from each GMU: 0.00000518 [PW] + 0.0000245 [BC] + 0.00012 [DR] + 0.0000216 [BVC] + 0.000710708 [SR] + 0.0002681093 [GC] + 0.002119803 [AR] = 0.005574884 [Total]
8 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
It is estimated that a bighorn sheep will foray from the bighorn sheep overall range and make contact with the 12 Mile North allotment 0.005574884 times per year. This equates to a rate of approximately 0.05574884 contacts every 10 years, or one bighorn sheep contact with the 12 Mile Park North allotment is expected approximately every (1/ 0.05574884 =) 179 years.
2.2. Risk of Contact Model Analysis Results Data are not available to determine spatial or temporal use of domestic animals within grazing allotments, so the RoC model estimates the probability that foraying bighorn sheep will come in contact with a grazing allotment rather than with an individual domestic animal. The RoC model predicts potential interspecies contact by assuming that contact with an allotment results in interspecies contact. The RGFO analyzed 1,042 grazing allotments or allotment pieces. Of the 1,042 allotments, 891 allotments had some probability of contact with bighorn sheep (Table 2.5). Final contact probabilities/rates for allotments were determined by adding probabilities/rates from all bighorn sheep GMUs that interacted with the allotment. If a grazing allotment intersected the bighorn sheep overall range, it was assumed that bighorn sheep will contact the allotment, and a risk of contact assessment would not be necessary. In that instance, the model output states, “This allotment intersects the home range polygon and is therefore not included in the RoC analysis.” There is uncertainty about the relationship between bighorn sheep contacts with grazing allotments and disease transmission, so the estimated years between potential disease events for each allotment was calculated for multiple transmission rates ranging from 0.05 (1 in 20 contacts would result in a disease transmission) to 1.00 (every contact would result in a disease transmission) (Table 2.6).
2.3. Discussion The RoC model is not a decision tool; it is another piece of information that may be used to guide resource decisions. Currently, the RGFO does not authorize domestic sheep or goat grazing on any allotments; however, for the purpose of this analysis, assessments were conducted as if all allotments were grazed by domestic sheep or goats. If domestic sheep or goat grazing were proposed in an existing allotment, the RGFO would conduct a site-specific assessment, using the best available science to analyze the risk of contact between bighorn sheep and domestic sheep or goats.
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Table 2.3. Game Management Unit Name, Numbers, and Sex Ratios Used in the Draft Eastern Colorado RMP RoC Analysis GMU GMU Name Herd Total Sex Ratio Ram Ewe Number APISHAPA S38 21 11:10 11 10 ARKANSAS RIVER S7 70 20:50 20 50 BEAVER CREEK S5 8 3:5 3 5 BIG THOMPSON CANYON S57 52 14:38 14 38 BROWNS CANYON S47 70 20:50 20 50 BUFFALO PEAKS S12 175 50:125 50 125 CARRIZO CANYON S48 55 22:33 22 33 COLLEGIATE NORTH S11 100 20:80 20 80 COLLEGIATE SOUTH S17 120 30:90 30 90 CULEBRA S51/S65 330 140:190 140 190 DOME ROCK S46 24 8:16 8 16 FOSSIL RIDGE S71 25 5:20 5 20 GEORGETOWN S32 200 70:130* 70 130 GORE/EAGLES NEST S02 23 14:9 14 9 GRANT S4 25 9:16* 9 16 GRAPE CREEK S49 170 63:107 63 107 GREENHORNS S35 73 28:45 28 45 GREENLAND S72 28 8:20 8 20 HAYMAN S43 20 7:13* 7 13 HOLY CROSS S76 10 4:6* 4 6 HUERFANO S8 80 28:52* 28 52 KENOSHA S23 20 7:13* 7 13 LONE PINE S40 30 12:18 12 18 LOWER POUDRE RIVER S58 35 15:20 15 20 MARSHALL PASS S20 25 5:20 5 20 MOUNT ELBERT S66 100 25:75 25 75 MOUNT EVANS S3 80 28:52* 28 52 MOUNT MAESTAS S50 100 38:62 38 62 MOUNT SILVERHEELS S39 65 25:40 25 40 NEVER SUMMER RANGE S19 50 18:32 18 32 NORTH SANGRE DE CRISTOS S68 30 10:20 10 20 PERU CREEK S41 55 19:32 19 36 PIKES PEAK S6 85 26:59 26 59 POUDRE RIVER S1 70 40:30 40 30 PUEBLO WEST S79 20 10:10 10 10
10 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
GMU GMU Name Herd Total Sex Ratio Ram Ewe Number PURGATORY CANYON S61 209 79:130 79 130 RAMPART RANGE S34 79 38:41 38 41 RAWAH S18 20 8:12* 8 12 ROCKY MOUNTAIN S83 200 70:130* 70 130 NATIONAL PARK SANGRE DE CRISTO S9 215 80:135 80 135 SHELF ROAD S60 70 20:50 20 50 SNOWMASS EAST S13 60 20:40 20 40 ST VRAIN S37 39 15:24 15 24 TARRYALL S27 30 10:20* 10 20 TAYLOR RIVER S26 30 13:17 13 17 TEN MILE S78 10 4:6* 4 6 TRICKLE MOUNTAIN S10 34 10:24 10 24 WATERTON CANYON S42 55 26:29 26 29
*RoC tool default herd sex ratio (0.35 rams/ 0.65 ewes) was used, because herd-specific sex ratio was unavailable.
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Table 2.4. Estimated Annual Contact Probabilities and Rates of GMUS Containing Bighorn Sheep That May Come in Contact with 12 Mile Park North Allotment Ram:Ewe Single Ram Single Ewe All Rams Contact All Ewes Contact All Herd Contact Game Management Unit Sex Ratio Probability Probability Rate Rate Rate PUEBLO WEST [PW] 10:10 0.000000509 8.99E-09 0.00000509 8.99E-08 0.00000518 BROWNS CANYON [BC] 20:50 0.000000936 0.000000116 0.0000187 0.00000579 0.0000245 DOME ROCK [DR] 8:16 0.00000124 0.000000128 0.00000991 0.00000205 0.000012 BEAVER CREEK [BVC] 3:5 0.00000635 0.0000005 0.0000191 0.0000025 0.0000216 SHELF ROAD [SR] 20:50 0.0000334 0.000000856 0.000667931 0.0000428 0.000710708 GRAPE CREEK [GC] 63:107 0.0000388 0.00000219 0.002446742 0.000234351 0.002681093 ARKANSAS RIVER [AR] 20:50 0.000087 0.00000759 0.001740498 0.000379305 0.002119803 Total – 0.000168235 1.1389E-05 0.004907971 0.000666886 0.005574884
Table 2.5. Risk of Contact Model Results for Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 12 MILE PARK NORTH 02697 0.000168235 1.1389E-05 0.004907971 0.000666886 0.005574884 31 MILE CREEK 05060 0.004241879 0.000122433 0.083080104 0.005974916 0.089055022 31 MILE MTN ALLOT 05125 0.005817209 0.000270268 0.116769915 0.013152929 0.12992285 39 MILE MTN 05204 0.000093046 2.5599E-06 0.001480955 0.000088289 0.001569241 ADOBE CANYON 05924 3.79005E-05 1.55001E-06 0.005383055 0.000291268 0.005674321 ADOBE PARK 05845 5.32084E-05 2.10721E-06 0.000893474 0.000100681 0.000994211 AGATE BEDS 05042 0.011307402 0.000777439 0.226791657 0.039361519 0.266153197 AGATE MTN 05931 0.000956791 3.02736E-05 0.023273006 0.00181657 0.025089579 AGUILAR 05841 0.00015204 0.00000451 0.021589723 0.000847551 0.022437274 ALAMO-A 05834 * * * * * ALAMO-B 05834 0.000125786 0.000007021 0.005521603 0.000452777 0.005974354
12 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 ALAMO-C 05834 * * * * * ALLOTMENT 104 ^ 1.12E-08 1.98E-10 0.000000123 1.98E-09 0.000000125 ALLOTMENT 105 ^ 0.00000102 1.81E-08 0.0000113 0.000000181 0.0000114 ALLOTMENT 119 ^ 2.147E-07 1.135E-08 0.000002429 1.703E-07 0.000002602 ALLOTMENT 120 ^ 0.00000864 0.000000246 0.000160669 0.00000709 0.000167731 ALLOTMENT 121 ^ 0.000002055 1.149E-07 0.00005025 0.000003421 0.00005365 ALLOTMENT 122 ^ 0.000674415 5.69717E-05 0.019304999 0.002590463 0.02189551 ALLOTMENT 123 ^ 0.00003303 0.00000151 0.000989916 0.00007074 0.001060662 ALLOTMENT 124 ^ 0.00117702 0.00009338 0.034431013 0.004266855 0.038697868 ALLOTMENT 125 ^ 0.00068769 0.000037158 0.02625523 0.002327091 0.02858238 ALLOTMENT 126 ^ 0.000206125 0.000008004 0.008106272 0.000525079 0.00863134 ALLOTMENT 127 ^ 0.00006306 4.7633E-06 0.002413827 0.00030093 0.002714733 ALLOTMENT 128 ^ 0.000126704 6.6186E-06 0.005200985 0.00042829 0.005629268 ALLOTMENT 129 ^ 3.26868E-05 1.84357E-06 0.001131998 0.000099807 0.001231892 ALLOTMENT 130 ^ 0.000069117 0.000003886 0.002468987 0.000222975 0.002692041 ALLOTMENT 131 ^ 0.00014985 4.11242E-06 0.005943686 0.000277251 0.006220852 ALLOTMENT 132 ^ 0.00009963 0.000002598 0.004396956 0.0001884 0.004585311 ALLOTMENT 133 ^ 0.021469474 0.000823182 1.069647511 0.056209412 1.125856923 ALLOTMENT 134 ^ 0.002302631 0.00009564 0.104497237 0.006418725 0.110915934 ALLOTMENT 135 ^ 0.002512949 0.00010739 0.117735565 0.007599479 0.125335045 ALLOTMENT 136 ^ 0.003510509 0.00012578 0.165516766 0.008782924 0.174299689 ALLOTMENT 137 ^ 0.000910765 0.000034398 0.043693937 0.002371099 0.046065053 ALLOTMENT 138 ^ 0.007860437 0.000276218 0.371762081 0.019918065 0.391680147 ALLOTMENT 139 ^ 0.0000501 0.000001841 0.002279108 0.00013239 0.002411607 ALLOTMENT 140 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 141 ^ 0.000085178 3.7541E-06 0.003572048 0.000249264 0.003821362
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 13 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 ALLOTMENT 143 ^ 0.001321384 0.000087413 0.054721015 0.005626067 0.060347083 ALLOTMENT 144 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 145 ^ 0.000146208 0.000008977 0.006237606 0.000576372 0.006813946 ALLOTMENT 146 ^ 0.000207409 1.01714E-05 0.008814111 0.000657743 0.009471872 ALLOTMENT 147 ^ 0.000094956 0.000006983 0.003896175 0.000441719 0.004337935 ALLOTMENT 148 ^ 0.000144937 8.3782E-06 0.006062704 0.000534235 0.006596937 ALLOTMENT 149 ^ 0.000072758 4.4981E-06 0.003030511 0.000287417 0.003317901 ALLOTMENT 150 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 151 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 152 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 153-A ^ 0.001077035 0.000068151 0.048224529 0.004470844 0.052695305 ALLOTMENT 153-B ^ 0.000624658 0.000041387 0.026832257 0.0026879 0.029520107 ALLOTMENT 153-C ^ 0.000759319 0.000047768 0.034372952 0.003173153 0.037546111 ALLOTMENT 154 ^ 0.00116833 0.000062328 0.056582678 0.004213297 0.060795922 ALLOTMENT 155 ^ 0.010416947 0.000400656 0.518739973 0.029264514 0.548004466 ALLOTMENT 156 ^ 0.00005968 3.9922E-06 0.00262118 0.000256763 0.002877927 ALLOTMENT 157 ^ 0.002018361 0.000055334 0.107253128 0.005092366 0.112345511 ALLOTMENT 158 ^ 0.000665404 1.84619E-05 0.037863374 0.001760731 0.039624135 ALLOTMENT 159 ^ 7.6367E-06 2.28347E-07 0.000461628 2.61856E-05 0.000487822 ALLOTMENT 161 ^ 0.000569506 0.00001648 0.017909467 0.000857285 0.018766741 ALLOTMENT 162 ^ 0.0000713 0.000002053 0.00214006 0.00010158 0.002241572 ALLOTMENT 163 ^ 0.0000888 0.00000276 0.003062288 0.00016069 0.003222996 ALLOTMENT 164 ^ 0.000149313 0.000005914 0.001859094 0.0000783 0.001937391 ALLOTMENT 165 ^ 0.00009653 0.000002106 0.001375204 0.0000436 0.001418707 ALLOTMENT 166 ^ 0.00010075 0.0000022 0.001398776 0.0000443 0.001442984 ALLOTMENT 167 ^ 0.00002918 7.454E-07 0.000573085 0.00002101 0.000594037
14 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 ALLOTMENT 168 ^ 0.000276582 2.86292E-05 0.002999775 0.000305307 0.003305081 ALLOTMENT 169 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 170 ^ 0.000017899 1.2391E-06 0.001399446 0.000159432 0.001558773 ALLOTMENT 171 ^ 0.00004169 0.000001331 0.002050461 0.0001059 0.00215626 ALLOTMENT 172 ^ 0.00002182 0.000000689 0.001199347 0.0000609 0.001260228 ALLOTMENT 173 ^ 0.00002521 0.0000007 0.001230627 0.0000591 0.001289743 ALLOTMENT 174 ^ 0.001624099 0.00003567 0.074566278 0.002812301 0.077378577 ALLOTMENT 175 ^ 0.000668508 0.00001506 0.028736015 0.001064848 0.029800863 ALLOTMENT 176 ^ 7.5401E-06 1.8992E-07 0.000347829 0.000014911 0.000362737 ALLOTMENT 177 ^ 0.0000084 1.931E-07 0.000374307 0.00001427 0.000388575 ALLOTMENT 178 ^ 0.00001467 3.299E-07 0.000634906 0.00002351 0.00065843 ALLOTMENT 179 ^ 0.00003301 7.532E-07 0.001458918 0.0000554 0.001514261 ALLOTMENT 18 ^ 3.163E-08 3.43E-09 4.705E-07 7.004E-08 5.405E-07 ALLOTMENT 180 ^ 0.000107834 2.98491E-06 0.004959718 0.000216859 0.005176619 ALLOTMENT 181 ^ 0.0001194 0.000002722 0.005294991 0.0002009 0.005495941 ALLOTMENT 182 ^ 1.24503E-05 2.7502E-07 0.000558015 2.06209E-05 0.000578639 ALLOTMENT 183 ^ 0.000036785 1.04931E-06 0.0016888 7.73282E-05 0.001766158 ALLOTMENT 184 ^ 0.000116727 3.4759E-06 0.004750277 0.000229954 0.004980191 ALLOTMENT 185 ^ 0.000577635 0.000028996 0.023275884 0.001872141 0.025147984 ALLOTMENT 186 ^ 0.0000886 0.000006867 0.00369004 0.000493604 0.004183652 ALLOTMENT 187 ^ 0.000549558 0.000014105 0.022222796 0.000919785 0.023142619 ALLOTMENT 188 ^ 0.000073676 0.000002412 0.003963357 0.000208075 0.004171289 ALLOTMENT 189 ^ 0.00006413 0.00000213 0.003338602 0.0001774 0.003516003 ALLOTMENT 19 ^ 9.76E-08 1.06E-08 0.000001447 0.000000233 0.000001671 ALLOTMENT 190 ^ 0.000072557 2.5726E-06 0.003422681 0.00019537 0.003618102 ALLOTMENT 191 ^ 0.000037829 1.2655E-06 0.001938891 0.00010201 0.002040968
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 15 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 ALLOTMENT 192 ^ 0.000025307 9.499E-07 0.001324184 0.000082261 0.001406494 ALLOTMENT 193 ^ 0.000230572 0.000008727 0.00969606 0.000680659 0.010376569 ALLOTMENT 194 ^ 0.000343405 0.000012912 0.013312823 0.000951736 0.014264616 ALLOTMENT 195 ^ 0.000136335 7.03056E-06 0.004972905 0.000457451 0.005430405 ALLOTMENT 196 ^ 0.000246233 7.9126E-06 0.008113701 0.000478791 0.008592493 ALLOTMENT 197 ^ 1.56124E-05 5.4784E-07 0.000697943 4.51272E-05 0.000743097 ALLOTMENT 198 ^ 0.000176902 0.00001407 0.006221322 0.000870518 0.007091841 ALLOTMENT 199 ^ 0.000272445 6.42357E-06 0.003320663 0.000098635 0.00341926 ALLOTMENT 200 ^ 0.00001773 6.084E-07 0.000261463 0.000011312 0.000272775 ALLOTMENT 201 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 202 ^ 0.00036859 0.000019539 0.009426178 0.000876401 0.010302565 ALLOTMENT 203 ^ 0.004913816 0.0001719 0.079385671 0.003621918 0.083007558 ALLOTMENT 204 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 205-B ^ 0.007055778 0.00019807 0.121350411 0.005749051 0.127099462 ALLOTMENT 206 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 207 ^ 0.002549158 0.000135275 0.035812412 0.003908167 0.039720679 ALLOTMENT 208 ^ 0.000529272 2.79566E-05 0.007765107 0.000792425 0.008557607 ALLOTMENT 209 ^ 0.000860762 4.79958E-05 0.012971394 0.001577358 0.014548849 ALLOTMENT 210 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 211 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 212 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 213 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 214 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 215 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 216 ^ 0.001190456 0.000057032 0.029081821 0.002761685 0.031843519 ALLOTMENT 217 ^ 0.001029743 0.00005422 0.024251429 0.002584026 0.026835409
16 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 ALLOTMENT 218 ^ 2.28878E-05 1.64956E-06 0.000686759 0.0001056 0.000792335 ALLOTMENT 219 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 220 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 221 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 222 ^ 0.00003114 8.836E-07 0.001321343 0.00006551 0.001386672 ALLOTMENT 223 ^ 0.000028444 8.237E-07 0.001317 0.000068568 0.001385595 ALLOTMENT 224 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 225 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 226 ^ 0.000989514 0.000076148 0.011986879 0.001853781 0.013840671 ALLOTMENT 227 ^ 0.000030096 1.6761E-06 0.000499141 0.000080009 0.000579216 ALLOTMENT 228 ^ 0.000422584 0.000017137 0.007682364 0.001016326 0.008698682 ALLOTMENT 229 ^ 0.00019193 0.000008275 0.003865474 0.000533926 0.004399322 ALLOTMENT 230 ^ 3.05617E-05 1.39941E-06 0.000824251 0.000100612 0.000924899 ALLOTMENT 231 ^ 0.000132239 5.8884E-06 0.004488071 0.000589767 0.005077914 ALLOTMENT 232 ^ 0.000141129 9.50638E-06 0.005471601 0.001051099 0.006522654 ALLOTMENT 233 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 234 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 235 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 236 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 237 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 238 ^ 0.002785868 0.000115171 0.040589468 0.004202125 0.044791465 ALLOTMENT 239 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 240 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 241 ^ 0.000072098 3.3815E-06 0.001725119 0.000150568 0.001875695 ALLOTMENT 242 ^ 0.000619929 0.00003062 0.018180295 0.001332996 0.019513169 ALLOTMENT 243 ^ 0.000031537 8.67953E-07 0.000738577 3.07464E-05 0.000769198
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 17 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 ALLOTMENT 244 ^ 2.63087E-05 1.00264E-06 0.000518791 3.63276E-05 0.000555042 ALLOTMENT 245 ^ 0.00003026 0.000000954 0.000575941 0.000033162 0.000609139 ALLOTMENT 246 ^ 0.000028944 1.1399E-06 0.000322921 2.56844E-05 0.000348476 ALLOTMENT 247 ^ 0.00056921 2.32964E-05 0.007204623 0.000532291 0.00773686 ALLOTMENT 248 ^ 0.000214356 0.000005252 0.00301403 0.000138443 0.003152528 ALLOTMENT 249 ^ 0.000017671 0.000000551 0.000348076 0.000018435 0.000366386 ALLOTMENT 250 ^ 7.218E-06 3.27093E-07 0.000209955 2.17123E-05 0.000231628 ALLOTMENT 251 ^ 9.53038E-05 4.69774E-06 0.002647606 0.000213755 0.002861213 ALLOTMENT 252 ^ 0.000025871 6.822E-07 0.000373286 0.000016846 0.000390182 ALLOTMENT 253 ^ 1.44361E-05 4.23908E-07 0.000209539 1.06304E-05 0.000220159 ALLOTMENT 254 ^ 1.27869E-05 4.2783E-07 0.00018314 0.000011292 0.00019452 ALLOTMENT 255 ^ 0.000034937 1.13383E-06 0.000457481 0.000028987 0.00048637 ALLOTMENT 256 ^ 0.000018936 6.8572E-07 0.000512745 0.00003503 0.000547772 ALLOTMENT 257 ^ 8.6449E-06 2.9172E-07 0.000258959 0.00001894 0.000277951 ALLOTMENT 258 ^ 5.8467E-06 2.0929E-07 0.00017435 0.000013377 0.0001877 ALLOTMENT 259 ^ 0.000014478 6.072E-07 0.00021278 0.000015956 0.00022863 ALLOTMENT 260 ^ 0.000025642 9.301E-07 0.000334973 0.00002649 0.000361466 ALLOTMENT 261 ^ 1.54329E-05 4.9908E-07 0.000520685 3.59885E-05 0.000556725 ALLOTMENT 262 ^ 0.000028161 8.451E-07 0.001083853 0.00008003 0.001163809 ALLOTMENT 263 ^ 0.000062396 1.6893E-06 0.002021085 0.00014357 0.002164572 ALLOTMENT 264 ^ 0.00017125 0.000007894 0.005302044 0.000655438 0.005957388 ALLOTMENT 265 ^ 0.000006657 2.069E-07 0.0001372 0.00001008 0.0001472 ALLOTMENT 266 ^ 0.000100535 3.49933E-06 0.001851587 0.000140263 0.001991869 ALLOTMENT 267 ^ 0.000041899 1.4687E-06 0.000739157 0.000059458 0.000798654 ALLOTMENT 268 ^ 0.000035558 1.3231E-06 0.000555996 0.000051878 0.000608033 ALLOTMENT 269 ^ 0.00002242 5.858E-07 0.000473518 0.00003073 0.000504216
18 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 ALLOTMENT 270 ^ 0.000039076 2.7443E-06 0.001050922 0.000145419 0.001196382 ALLOTMENT 271 ^ 0.000006289 2.3859E-07 0.00012271 9.0869E-06 0.000131744 ALLOTMENT 30 ^ 0.000426168 0.000017881 0.006684083 0.000371098 0.007055238 ALLOTMENT 31 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 32 ^ 0.00013496 4.3834E-06 0.007390373 0.000425735 0.007816127 ALLOTMENT 33 ^ 0.00011689 4.1941E-06 0.006042243 0.000387568 0.006429748 ALLOTMENT 34 ^ 0.000758921 0.000040528 0.020364948 0.00227319 0.022638106 ALLOTMENT 35 ^ 0.001624965 7.61408E-05 0.043333902 0.004257217 0.047591106 ALLOTMENT 36 ^ 0.00075436 0.000035998 0.023411406 0.001680908 0.025092316 ALLOTMENT 37 ^ 0.000175597 0.000007949 0.003451511 0.000280714 0.003732267 ALLOTMENT 38 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 39 ^ 0.002886007 0.000100588 0.118400203 0.007741818 0.12614202 ALLOTMENT 40 ^ 0.000026157 9.0519E-07 0.001364908 0.000094117 0.001459061 ALLOTMENT 41 ^ 0.000100224 3.7329E-06 0.005481893 0.000391185 0.005873138 ALLOTMENT 42 ^ 0.000071315 3.0434E-06 0.003770523 0.000324143 0.004094637 ALLOTMENT 43 ^ * * * * * ALLOTMENT 44 ^ 0.000319469 0.000009463 0.004844216 0.00026 0.005104308 ALLOTMENT 68 ^ 0.000005391 4.752E-07 0.000281491 0.00003254 0.000314059 ALLOTMENT 69 ^ 0.000000604 0.000000047 0.00003186 0.000003211 0.0000351 ALLOTMENT 70 ^ 0.000004222 4.2128E-07 0.000214356 0.000023894 0.000238155 ALLOTMENT 71 ^ 0.000000662 5.96E-08 0.00003388 0.000003495 0.00003744 ALLOTMENT 72 ^ 0.000000434 3.466E-08 0.00001751 0.000001445 0.00001896 ALLOTMENT 73 ^ 0.00000759 0.000000468 0.001078273 0.000088 0.001166267 ALLOTMENT 74 ^ 0.0000164 0.00000101 0.002323273 0.000189594 0.002512867 ALLOTMENT 75 ^ 0.0000108 0.000000525 0.001527198 0.0000987 0.001625929 ALLOTMENT 76 ^ 0.0000842 0.00000663 0.011961223 0.001247328 0.013208551
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 19 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 ALLOTMENT 77 ^ 0.000239278 0.00000856 0.033977534 0.001608494 0.035586028 ALLOTMENT 78 ^ 0.00000853 4.006E-07 0.001031845 0.00006835 0.001100135 ALLOTMENT 79 ^ 0.00000844 4.007E-07 0.001044277 0.00006936 0.001113533 ALLOTMENT 80 ^ 0.000007141 1.8016E-07 0.0003955 0.000015466 0.000410962 ALLOTMENT 81 ^ 4.07693E-05 1.93422E-06 0.002956067 0.000268876 0.003224941 ALLOTMENT 82 ^ 0.00000662 2.918E-07 0.000691616 0.00004817 0.000739775 ALLOTMENT 83 ^ 0.00000942 4.901E-07 0.001087064 0.00008463 0.001171674 ALLOTMENT 84 ^ 0.000008483 3.474E-07 0.000643066 0.00003499 0.000678114 ALLOTMENT 85 ^ 0.000006349 2.7086E-07 0.000478806 0.0000158 0.000494591 ALLOTMENT 86 ^ 0.00000687 3.791E-07 0.000392387 0.00002149 0.000413884 ALLOTMENT 87 ^ 0.000006314 5.312E-07 0.000278341 0.00003608 0.000314453 ALLOTMENT 88 ^ 0.000003281 3.088E-07 0.00008156 0.00000775 0.00008925 ALLOTMENT 89 ^ 4.58363E-06 1.92075E-07 5.84693E-05 2.98727E-06 6.14196E-05 ALLOTMENT 90 ^ 0.000002916 8.79E-08 0.0000839 0.00000444 0.00008825 ALLOTMENT 91 ^ 1.5268E-06 6.305E-08 0.000018404 9.082E-07 0.000019232 ALLOTMENT 92 ^ 0.000011776 3.151E-07 0.000134815 0.000003312 0.000138129 ALLOTMENT 93 ^ 0.000020794 5.5442E-07 0.000231559 0.000005664 0.000237222 ALLOTMENT 94 ^ 0.000241096 0.0000172 0.002652055 0.000171506 0.00282356 ALLOTMENT 95 ^ 0.000129413 0.00000837 0.001423548 0.0000837 0.001507259 ALLOTMENT 96 ^ 0.000181968 0.00000923 0.002001643 0.0000923 0.002093964 ALLOTMENT 97 ^ 0.0000242 0.00000201 0.001911096 0.000260816 0.002171912 ALLOTMENT 98 ^ 0.000000216 1.18E-08 0.0000171 0.00000153 0.0000186 ALTA VISTA IND 15022 0.004005127 0.000191235 0.06334188 0.006494246 0.069836077 AMERICUS-A 05896 * * * * * AMERICUS-B 05896 * * * * * ANTELOPE 05899 0.000049293 1.58011E-06 0.002796301 0.000140858 0.002937137
20 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 ANTELOPE CREEK 05748 0.00002259 0.00000076 0.001172696 0.0000632 0.001235936 ANTERO RES 05288 0.000252391 9.79707E-06 0.00870321 0.000861124 0.009564259 ANTERO RESERVOIR-A 05904 0.000023861 8.186E-07 0.00080114 0.00006313 0.000864302 ANTERO RESERVOIR-B 05904 0.000006673 2.257E-07 0.000213142 0.000016745 0.000229991 ANTERO RESERVOIR-C 05904 4.3988E-06 1.2499E-07 0.000158007 1.05626E-05 0.000168572 ANTERO RESERVOIR-D 05904 0.000024691 8.526E-07 0.000778774 0.00006077 0.000839634 APACHE CITY 05909 0.00002494 0.00000066 0.000730936 0.00003155 0.000762457 APACHE RIDGE 05210 0.000179092 0.000008226 0.007380503 0.000529273 0.007909879 APISHAPA BRIDGE-A 05811 0.000025 0.00000058 0.000274857 0.0000058 0.000280653 APISHAPA BRIDGE-B 05811 0.00000309 8.28E-08 0.000034 0.000000828 0.0000348 ASHER GULCH 05134 0.015921959 0.000860776 0.323040552 0.042052483 0.365093049 AVONDALE 02804 3.73E-08 3.86E-09 0.000000373 3.86E-08 0.000000411 BADGER CR 05109 * * * * * BADITO CONE 05999 * * * * * BADITO W-A 05108 0.000034139 1.9149E-06 0.00124177 0.00011593 0.00135772 BADITO W-B 05108 0.000065415 3.6619E-06 0.002379588 0.000221287 0.002600839 BADITO-A 05177 0.000114151 4.9064E-06 0.003909406 0.000258076 0.004167561 BADITO-B 05177 0.003434252 0.000198704 0.112967432 0.009529778 0.122497219 BALD KHOBS-A ^ 0.0000044 0.000000154 0.000624783 0.000029 0.000653739 BALD KHOBS-B ^ 0.00000563 0.000000183 0.000799705 0.0000344 0.000834153 BALD KHOBS-C ^ 0.00000678 0.000000189 0.00096325 0.0000355 0.000998702 BALFOUR N 15012 0.000046156 1.78175E-06 0.000978381 8.99621E-05 0.001068293 BARNARD CR 05099 0.007014926 0.000501946 0.103756276 0.014423631 0.118179916 BARNARD CR E 05100 0.000578246 0.000041885 0.009153764 0.00129925 0.010453006 BEAR CANYON 05873 0.0000877 0.00000194 0.012453103 0.000364214 0.012817318 BEAR CK ALLOTMENT-A 05835 0.000008724 2.881E-07 0.000729256 0.00002879 0.000758108
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 21 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 BEAR CK ALLOTMENT-B 05835 0.00003156 0.000001025 0.002177218 0.00008966 0.002266937 BEAR CK ALLOTMENT-C 05822 0.00005414 0.000001651 0.004624794 0.000179191 0.004804011 BEAR CR 15004 * * * * * BEAR PEAK 05053 0.00618511 0.000279389 0.232784893 0.017690412 0.250475294 BEAVER CR-A 05132 * * * * * BEAVER CR-B 05132 * * * * * BECKWITH 05094 0.00012709 0.000003655 0.00722321 0.000335593 0.007558816 BIG BEAR 05142 0.000458077 2.11242E-05 0.013730301 0.001011125 0.01474153 BIG BULL MTN 05111 0.005324283 0.000284913 0.074471716 0.008453154 0.082924895 BIG HOLE 15002 * * * * * BLACK CLOUD 05837 0.000053874 1.8777E-06 0.000921225 0.000050539 0.000971681 BLACK MTN 05843 0.009247232 0.000263618 0.431951856 0.019770169 0.451721994 BLUE RIDGE 05137 0.015572344 0.000587257 0.371164915 0.028139219 0.399304141 BOND 05095 0.032839845 0.001902793 0.382905004 0.02993571 0.412840715 BOOGER RED HILL 05189 * * * * * BOX CANYON 05243 * * * * * BRADFORD CANAL S 05733 0.011959583 0.000739271 0.382059019 0.035163279 0.417222277 BRADFORD CANAL-A 05709 0.00001104 2.945E-07 0.000329508 0.00001402 0.000343535 BRADFORD CANAL-B 05709 0.003691619 0.000249069 0.115609738 0.01178843 0.127398167 BRADFORD CANAL-C 05709 0.0000516 0.000001679 0.001572605 0.0000801 0.001652688 BRADFORD CANAL-D 05709 0.00002119 0.000000737 0.000664501 0.0000369 0.000701412 BRADFORD MESA WEST 05799 0.00000503 1.191E-07 0.0001552 0.00000598 0.000161247 BRADFORD MESA-A 05842 0.00000327 2.2906E-07 0.0001 0.000007404 0.0001074 BRADFORD MESA-B 05842 0.000003598 9.97E-08 0.0001418 0.0000067 0.0001485 BRADFORD MESA-C 05842 0.000003999 1.188E-07 0.0001392 6.1767E-06 0.00014535 BRADFORD MESA-D 05842 0.000031477 1.88342E-06 0.000920442 0.0000612 0.000981609
22 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 BRADFORD RESERVOIR W-A 15000 0.00001196 0.000000435 0.000342665 0.00001777 0.000360411 BRADFORD RESERVOIR W-B 15000 0.00003455 0.000003168 0.000747351 0.0000769 0.000824244 BRADFORD RESERVOIR W-C 15000 0.00001679 4.584E-07 0.000498911 0.000022034 0.000520916 BRADFORD RESERVOIR W-D 15000 0.00000658 4.326E-07 0.0001552 0.00001211 0.0001673 BRADFORD RESERVOIR W-E 15000 0.00001357 4.126E-07 0.000380924 0.000019976 0.000400919 BRADFORD RESERVOIR-A 05867 0.0000127 0.000001097 0.000324816 0.00003186 0.000356763 BRADFORD RESERVOIR-B 05867 0.00001965 0.000001912 0.000345759 0.0000415 0.000387255 BREECE CR 05864 0.000061117 1.88187E-06 0.002571139 0.000135754 0.002706866 BROWN PARK-A 05054 * * * * * BROWN PARK-B 05054 0.000015808 9.491E-07 0.000560997 0.000079062 0.000639976 BROWN PARK-C 05054 0.000035168 1.9996E-06 0.001208838 0.000166287 0.001375101 BROWN PARK-D 05054 0.000095861 6.1518E-06 0.003559457 0.000528894 0.004088169 BROWNS CANYON 05813 * * * * * BROWNS CANYON SCHOOL 05819 0.000033673 1.6204E-06 0.000699522 0.000091092 0.00079036 BROWNS CR 05892 0.00028159 0.000013255 0.006715158 0.00093485 0.007650032 BUFFALO CR 05920 0.00003746 1.1849E-06 0.001319343 0.00010184 0.001421196 BUFFALO GULCH N 05793 0.000017067 6.5742E-07 0.000368083 0.000029028 0.000397109 BUFFALO GULCH S 05307 0.000070102 2.5274E-06 0.001499074 0.000119955 0.001618998 BUFFALO PEAKS 05929 0.000010244 3.2569E-07 0.000136324 8.3982E-06 0.000144671 BULL MTN IND 05236 0.000463697 1.89683E-05 0.007196581 0.000643427 0.007840103 BULL DOMINGO-A 05074 2.80371E-05 9.9063E-07 0.001190447 6.92125E-05 0.001259699 BULL DOMINGO-B 05074 0.0000862 0.000003187 0.004353078 0.000253012 0.004606095 BULL DOMINGO-C 05074 0.000094155 2.5065E-06 0.004520697 0.000183839 0.004704448 BULL HILL 05048 0.001616223 0.00005111 0.041392331 0.002708373 0.044100774 BUMBACK SPRING 05081 0.000030526 2.64691E-06 0.000787383 0.000150778 0.000938175 BURLINGAME DITCH 05831 0.00035481 1.00196E-05 0.013338806 0.000814858 0.014153712
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 23 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 BURNO MTN 05064 0.000531077 1.71884E-05 0.013180562 0.000933125 0.01411372 BURRO CANYON-A ^ 0.00000247 8.57E-08 0.000351412 0.0000161 0.000367517 BURRO CANYON-B ^ 0.00000263 7.07E-08 0.000374163 0.0000133 0.000387448 BURRO CANYON-C ^ 0.00000156 4.18E-08 0.000221335 0.00000786 0.000229194 CANON RIDGE 03589 0.001041623 3.25174E-05 0.024090014 0.001399423 0.025489418 CARLIN GULCH 05139 * * * * * CARRIZO CREEK ^ * * * * * CEDAR CREST 05815 0.000370934 0.0000188 0.004080278 0.000188192 0.004268469 CEDAR SPRINGS MTN. 05147 * * * * * CEMETERY 05942 0.000026776 1.2041E-06 0.001163985 0.00007795 0.001242019 CHACUACO CR 05736 * * * * * CHAMA WEST-A 05895 0.000400908 0.000015349 0.017052533 0.000976729 0.018029335 CHAMA WEST-B 05895 0.00022044 0.000007086 0.01170959 0.000522533 0.012232136 CHITWOOD GULCH 05786 0.00195387 0.000128399 0.057701393 0.005959992 0.063661386 CLEAR CREEK-A 22037 0.000386054 0.000027753 0.017786833 0.002617636 0.020404368 CLEAR CREEK-B 22037 * * * * * CLEVELAND MTN 05883 0.009878144 0.000602907 0.123061262 0.015998697 0.139059992 COBB CR 05065 0.001297839 3.03508E-05 0.017191471 0.000873028 0.01806456 COMO 05799 0.000248706 1.20815E-05 0.005512366 0.000465058 0.005977428 COMO PARK 05805 0.000102393 5.9985E-06 0.002341489 0.000235077 0.002576525 COMO PARK E 05801 0.003305319 0.000151068 0.076387776 0.006220479 0.082608308 COOPER MTN 05206 0.021538557 0.000957435 0.388001213 0.03424754 0.422248793 COPPER GULCH COM 15036 * * * * * COTTON GAP-A ^ 0.000680905 0.00002001 0.021963786 0.000921465 0.022885252 COTTON GAP-B ^ 0.0006651 0.00002012 0.019025437 0.000849866 0.019875305 COTTONSACK-A 03894 * * * * *
24 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 COTTONSACK-B 03894 0.010863849 0.000430625 0.596291571 0.031106547 0.627398119 COTTONSACK-C 03894 0.000838154 0.000030476 0.041617495 0.002127874 0.04374534 COTTONWOOD CR 05096 0.014102948 0.000617757 0.415017298 0.034378376 0.449395665 COTTONWOOD RIDGE 05205 0.007965013 0.000206192 0.21156965 0.011072618 0.222642367 COW MTN 05178 * * * * * COW MTN W 15020 * * * * * CROOKED CR-A 05756 2.50855E-05 1.73227E-06 0.000675281 7.39844E-05 0.000749251 CROOKED CR-B 05756 * * * * * CROSS CREEK 05115 0.000082342 2.6697E-06 0.00097781 0.00007476 0.001052632 CROWN POINT 05186 * * * * * CRYSTAL FALLS 05818 0.001502254 0.00010305 0.109611667 0.012586723 0.122198402 CUCHARAS CANYON NE 02663 0.002001848 0.0000537 0.022020323 0.000536856 0.022557179 CUCHARAS CANYON S 00024 0.003578416 8.29374E-05 0.039398654 0.000831156 0.04022973 CUCHARAS WEST-A 05877 0.001275449 0.000034112 0.014234512 0.000348384 0.014582896 CUCHARAS WEST-B 05877 0.000463096 1.24337E-05 0.005126442 0.000125201 0.005251623 CUCHARAS WEST-C 05877 0.001209908 0.000038773 0.013475727 0.000393388 0.013869118 CURRENT CR EAST 05035 0.010194858 0.000558804 0.235643227 0.027440428 0.263083655 DAISY CANYON 05905 0.000131428 0.00000537 0.018662746 0.001009808 0.019672555 DEADMULE GULCH 05085 0.00181319 0.000060675 0.075076468 0.004452352 0.079528868 DEER CREEK 16021 * * * * * DEER CREEK 2-A 03895 * * * * * DEER CREEK 2-B 03895 * * * * * DEER CREEK 2-C 03895 * * * * * DEER CREEK 2-D 03895 * * * * * DEER HAVEN RANCH 05233 0.013101412 0.000552461 0.345761449 0.029731433 0.37549288 DEL AGUA 05708 0.0000756 0.00000194 0.0107392 0.000364231 0.011103431
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 25 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 DELILAH PEAK-A 05037 0.00065146 0.000016346 0.017520065 0.001000421 0.018520622 DELILAH PEAK-B 05037 0.003873464 0.000125749 0.09727674 0.00684061 0.104117355 DERRY DITCH-A 05747 * * * * * DERRY DITCH-B 05747 0.000113474 6.5665E-06 0.004066209 0.000676828 0.004743045 DERRY DITCH-C 05747 0.000347976 0.000016521 0.011872354 0.001589722 0.013461956 DERRY DITCH-D 05747 0.000263892 8.85458E-06 0.006565975 0.000591859 0.007157771 DEVILS GULCH S-A 05846 0.0000738 2.0359E-06 0.003934607 0.00017684 0.004111485 DEVILS GULCH S-B 05846 0.00014699 0.000003886 0.00828062 0.000346786 0.00862731 DEWEESE 15041 0.000023933 8.357E-07 0.001186536 0.00006579 0.001252417 DIAMOND A EAST-NORTH 05704 0.000002123 1.047E-07 0.0000353 0.000003201 0.0000385 DIAMOND A EAST-SOUTH 15556 0.000000643 5.99E-08 0.00000966 0.000001415 0.00001107 DIAMOND A NORTH 05850 0.00000864 2.457E-07 0.0001248 0.00000539 0.0001301 DICKS CR 05157 0.001580008 0.00004963 0.028864891 0.002272329 0.031137218 DIKE 05886 0.00442144 0.000213607 0.196054958 0.014548655 0.210603614 DRIVEWAY 05782 0.00009167 0.000003231 0.005451289 0.000278769 0.005729999 DRY CREEK CANYON-A ^ 1.86349E-05 1.43507E-06 0.000638761 0.000073586 0.000712221 DRY CREEK CANYON-B ^ * * * * * DRY GULCH COMMON-A 05201 0.00011253 0.000007004 0.002930659 0.000368945 0.003299653 DRY GULCH COMMON-B 05201 0.000025373 1.5516E-06 0.000693173 0.00008253 0.000775791 DRY GULCH COMMON-C 05201 0.000568318 0.000026273 0.014900116 0.001435826 0.016335863 DRY LAKE 05230 0.001764625 0.00009381 0.074550839 0.006434912 0.080985756 DUTCH FLAT 05893 1.99312E-05 7.8877E-07 0.000825114 5.19097E-05 0.000876994 DUTCH HENRY 05303 0.009728773 0.000482445 0.153171474 0.01615261 0.169324083 E BOX CANYON 05144 0.002410996 6.17122E-05 0.033188829 0.0015885 0.034777432 E BURLINGAME DITCH 02711 0.000053723 0.000001535 0.001723533 0.000104668 0.001828128 E CHAMA 05936 0.000752029 0.000028804 0.03189842 0.001855596 0.033753999
26 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 E ELDRED-B 05191 0.004191778 0.000198883 0.090908114 0.009480808 0.10038888 E FORK MILSAP CR 05209 0.024268071 0.001161179 0.493048649 0.056204659 0.54925331 E GARDEN PARK 05071 0.001346493 0.00006455 0.029792096 0.003076773 0.032868833 E PALO DURO 05907 0.00006805 3.2882E-06 0.002873522 0.000214957 0.003088445 EAST 8 MILE 15010 * * * * * EAST BALD HILL 03773 0.000100888 3.4398E-06 0.001885233 0.000125769 0.002011105 EAST PREACHER GULCH 05185 0.002720389 0.000195061 0.076580512 0.010884969 0.087465513 EAST ST JUDE 03704 * * * * * EIGHT MILE PARK-A 05224 * * * * * EIGHT MILE PARK-B 05224 * * * * * EIGHT MILE PARK-C 05224 * * * * * EIGHT MILE PARK-D 05224 * * * * * EIGHTMILE HILLS 15027 0.002944446 0.0001015 0.044911443 0.002454961 0.047366359 ELDRED 05079 0.006451914 0.000264032 0.151396113 0.012169536 0.163565687 ELEVENMILE CANYON 05141 0.00504011 0.000157951 0.058606577 0.004178783 0.062785394 ESPANOZA GULCH 05302 * * * * * FARISITA 05986 0.000169607 8.8499E-06 0.005929723 0.000507512 0.006437285 FEAR CANYON-A 05168 0.00006676 2.9113E-06 0.001882389 0.00016273 0.002045213 FEAR CANYON-B 05168 0.004539689 0.000176601 0.111183618 0.009425918 0.120609586 FELCH CR 05090 0.012997106 0.000500355 0.282709069 0.023205447 0.305914515 FERN CR 15050 0.008012381 0.000419195 0.165664235 0.020685212 0.186349392 FISHERMENS BRIDGE 05906 0.000034299 2.0206E-06 0.001097001 0.000142522 0.001239582 FIVE POINTS 03507 * * * * * FOURMILE CR 05910 0.000178693 0.000005234 0.005680683 0.000334188 0.00601489 FOURMILE CR SOUTH 03596 0.000078401 2.6659E-06 0.00235842 0.000166399 0.002524966 FOURMILE RANCH-A 05794 0.000026929 9.9578E-07 0.00080347 6.18407E-05 0.000865408
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 27 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 FOURMILE RANCH-B 05794 0.000051168 1.70833E-06 0.001578551 0.000110027 0.001688598 FRESH WATER CR 05056 0.003766449 0.000182627 0.062591857 0.007938905 0.070530769 FRIJOLE CR 05849 0.0000254 0.00000129 0.002005265 0.000167415 0.00217268 FURRISH CANYON ^ * * * * * GARDENER TABLE 05220 0.002156767 0.0000828 0.073803689 0.004907977 0.078711685 GARDNER ROAD 05820 3.39952E-05 1.12997E-06 0.001327783 0.000075766 0.001403547 GARO-A 05703 0.000063312 2.33318E-06 0.002046053 0.000161218 0.002207188 GARO-B 05703 0.000131381 4.63402E-06 0.003666063 0.000245184 0.003911322 GEOLOGY CAMP 05078 * * * * * GILLETT IND 05225 0.001370806 8.51742E-05 0.020851228 0.002652738 0.023503957 GLASS PLACE 05207 * * * * * GOTERA CANYON-A 05824 0.0000363 0.000001344 0.00190076 0.00011 0.002010742 GOTERA CANYON-B 05824 0.000159728 0.000004497 0.012308961 0.000531954 0.012840876 GOULD RESERVOIR 05011 0.004606821 0.000131465 0.089844236 0.004266541 0.09411076 GRANEROS FLATS-A 05880 0.000021252 7.962E-07 0.000584415 0.000033872 0.000618252 GRANEROS FLATS-B 05880 0.000003149 1.182E-07 0.00008179 0.000003802 0.00008552 GRANITE-A 05728 * * * * * GRANITE-B 05728 * * * * * GRAPE CR COM 05073 * * * * * GRAVEL PIT 05092 0.005110146 0.000290432 0.078727171 0.012253537 0.090980687 GREEN MTN 05731 * * * * * GREEN MTN GULCH 05158 0.011027119 0.000472276 0.263947216 0.024979491 0.288926685 GREEN MTN N-A 05116 0.004828315 0.00018397 0.121584838 0.010016104 0.131600942 GREEN MTN N-B 05116 0.000656421 2.16804E-05 0.017401505 0.001268985 0.018670457 GREENWOOD 05772 0.005189703 0.000237283 0.139163305 0.012921 0.152084306 GRIBBLE PARK-A 05121 * * * * *
28 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 GRIBBLE PARK-B 05121 * * * * * GRIBBLE PARK-C 05121 * * * * * GRIBBLE PARK-D 05121 * * * * * GRIBBLE PARK-E 05121 * * * * * GROUSE MTN 05069 * * * * * HAMILTON CANYON-A 05830 0.0000568 0.00000176 0.000625241 0.0000176 0.000642811 HAMILTON CANYON-B 05830 0.0000383 0.00000141 0.000421461 0.0000141 0.000435535 HAMMOND PEAK 05240 0.000103918 2.95699E-06 0.002081042 0.00015215 0.002233187 HARDESTY DRAW-A 05916 0.0000545 0.00000169 0.000599721 0.0000169 0.000616574 HARDESTY DRAW-B 05916 0.0000312 0.000000963 0.000342698 0.00000963 0.000352329 HARDESTY DRAW-C 05916 0.0000129 0.000000629 0.000141664 0.00000629 0.000147953 HARDESTY DRAW-D 05916 0.0000057 0.000000279 0.0000628 0.00000279 0.0000655 HARDESTY DRAW-E 05916 0.0000107 0.000000659 0.000117655 0.00000659 0.000124248 HARDESTY DRAW-F 05916 0.00000307 0.00000038 0.0000338 0.0000038 0.0000376 HARDSCRABBLE 05944 * * * * * HARDSCRABBLE MTN 05865 * * * * * HARLIN DITCH 05789 0.000211736 8.203E-06 0.004163166 0.000305775 0.004468903 HARLIN DITCH SOUTH 03954 3.04331E-05 8.18979E-07 0.000580593 2.82438E-05 0.000608883 HAYDEN BUTTE 05749 0.00002221 1.0636E-06 0.000644815 0.00004872 0.000693533 HAYDEN RANCH 03194 0.000284077 2.27897E-05 0.010298204 0.002291414 0.012589658 HECK GULCH-A 05214 0.001653002 0.00005868 0.076450504 0.005017745 0.081468252 HECK GULCH-B 05214 0.00084501 0.00002828 0.033661439 0.002230352 0.035891745 HECLA JCT E 05768 * * * * * HECLA JUNCTION W-A 05773 0.00014839 8.9539E-06 0.003068232 0.000459564 0.003527756 HECLA JUNCTION W-B 05773 * * * * * HERRING CR 05152 0.002617826 0.00011928 0.057755892 0.006525796 0.064281691
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 29 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 HEZRON GULCH-A 05825 0.00001486 4.986E-07 0.001889514 0.00008315 0.001972579 HEZRON GULCH-B 05825 0.000005641 1.949E-07 0.000707041 0.00003299 0.000740025 HIGH CR 05259 * * * * * HIGH CR ALLOTMENT-A 05739 0.000077889 2.9405E-06 0.002421472 0.00019757 0.002619124 HIGH CR ALLOTMENT-B 05739 0.000061247 2.21377E-06 0.001846504 0.000143082 0.001989557 HIGH PARK LH 05114 * * * * * HOME PLACE 05232 * * * * * HORSE CREEK 05869 0.000000955 9.06E-08 0.00001572 0.000002392 0.0000181 HOT SPRINGS 05198 0.001211132 3.93595E-05 0.029911375 0.002486897 0.03239831 HOWARD CR 15008 0.010204927 0.000488427 0.277842402 0.022141938 0.29998434 HUNT CANYON 05740 * * * * * IDEAL CANYON 05752 0.000022562 7.141E-07 0.002536353 0.00010978 0.002646158 IDEAL CANYON W 05717 0.000014929 4.642E-07 0.001437962 0.00006268 0.001500607 INDIAN GULCH COM 05063 0.002751836 0.000097148 0.072754279 0.005265873 0.078020092 IOWA GULCH-A 05863 0.003735529 0.00014818 0.134418152 0.015334718 0.149752879 IOWA GULCH-B 05863 0.000014517 4.823E-07 0.000444149 4.22433E-05 0.00048637 IOWA GULCH-C 05863 0.00010717 0.000004374 0.003525584 0.000403107 0.003928512 IOWA GULCH-D 05863 2.195E-05 8.97777E-07 0.000714206 8.19117E-05 0.000796292 IOWA GULCH-E 05863 0.000278865 1.38964E-05 0.010282469 0.001426884 0.011709228 IRELAND CORRALS 00018 0.001176407 0.00007258 0.033993001 0.00399702 0.037989987 IRON HILL 05921 0.00005709 0.00000143 0.002569568 0.0001112 0.002680714 IRON MTN S-A 05923 0.009295809 0.000307689 0.442604454 0.02206242 0.464666874 IRON MTN S-B 05923 0.011502024 0.00049709 0.52368682 0.03370231 0.557389131 IRON MTN-A 05148 0.0002327 0.00000802 0.010160395 0.000658095 0.010818439 IRON MTN-B 05148 0.000042549 1.5664E-06 0.001825986 0.00013476 0.001960809 IRON MTN-C 05148 0.000020429 7.264E-07 0.000772563 0.00005775 0.000830238
30 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 IRON MTN-D 05148 0.000315948 0.00001595 0.013776459 0.001429747 0.015206168 IRON MTN-E 05148 0.000036547 1.7103E-06 0.001655771 0.000153803 0.001809588 IRON MTN-F 05148 0.00003895 1.8421E-06 0.001579785 0.000162727 0.001742436 IRON MTN-G 05148 0.000021768 1.0367E-06 0.000885606 0.000091933 0.000977531 IRON MTN-H 05148 0.003571432 0.000196887 0.131393427 0.016749072 0.148142499 JACK HALL 05193 * * * * * JESUS CANYON ^ 0.0000194 4.756E-07 0.00054766 0.00002229 0.00056993 JUNKINS PARK 05884 0.000961913 0.000059543 0.035428434 0.003604019 0.039032493 KAUFMAN RIDGE 05304 0.003135894 0.000159195 0.091415516 0.010872143 0.102287622 KELLY CR 05097 * * * * * KERR GULCH COM 05006 0.031699657 0.001459461 1.058266102 0.080354241 1.138620344 LA VETA PASS N 05796 * * * * * LA JUNTA NORTH-A 05527 0.00000473 0.000000373 0.000373778 0.0000484 0.000422225 LA JUNTA NORTH-B 05527 0.00000714 0.00000072 0.000563935 0.0000935 0.000657483 LAKE CREEK-A 15029 0.000043472 1.1391E-06 0.002098163 0.000096806 0.00219495 LAKE CREEK-B 15029 0.000036856 9.516E-07 0.001724343 0.000081503 0.001805979 LAKE CREEK-C 15029 0.000042966 1.3141E-06 0.001785781 0.000109905 0.001895662 LAPIN CR-A 05901 0.000028486 1.0364E-06 0.001488248 0.000088414 0.001576738 LAPIN CR-B 05901 0.000050429 1.81281E-06 0.002640958 0.000158358 0.002799255 LAPIN CR-C 05901 0.000019037 6.59482E-07 0.000873751 5.02359E-05 0.000924056 LINK DITCH 05707 0.000561404 0.000014428 0.007407677 0.000380906 0.00778857 LITTLE COCHETOPA 05780 0.001044209 5.43959E-05 0.013331838 0.001511442 0.014843276 LITTLE HIGH 15009 * * * * * LITTLE HOLE COM 15003 * * * * * LITTLE PORCUPINE-A 05937 0.000197672 1.23382E-05 0.004643148 0.000770238 0.005413375 LITTLE PORCUPINE-B 05937 7.75886E-05 3.92602E-06 0.001717103 0.000245071 0.001962117
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 31 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 LITTLE PORCUPINE-C 05937 2.5896E-05 1.21049E-06 0.000611482 8.148E-05 0.000692952 LITTLE PORCUPINE-D 05937 4.15324E-05 1.89407E-06 0.001062357 0.000149811 0.001212321 LITTLE SHEEP-A 05769 0.000169495 1.50661E-05 0.006868403 0.000945711 0.007814128 LITTLE SHEEP-B 05769 * * * * * LITTLE TURKEY CREEK 05760 0.010389692 0.000496882 0.163113787 0.012569224 0.175682982 LIVERMORE 26016 0.000027389 1.5286E-06 0.000447979 0.000030214 0.000478187 LOGAN HILL-A 05795 0.000006966 2.5901E-07 0.000131736 9.7838E-06 0.000141601 LOGAN HILL-B 05795 0.000073664 2.6106E-06 0.001422606 0.000095314 0.001517782 LONG CANYON 05912 0.0000621 0.000001884 0.004041234 0.00017485 0.00421597 LONG GULCH PASTURE 05222 0.001119225 0.000082 0.034453719 0.004731128 0.039184869 LONG HOLLOW WEST-A 05173 * * * * * LONG HOLLOW WEST-B 05173 * * * * * LOOKOUT POINT 05104 * * * * * LOUIS GULCH-A 03228 0.003914202 0.000288192 0.076107433 0.014221993 0.090329441 LOUIS GULCH-B 03228 0.000533618 3.26155E-05 0.010556629 0.001626793 0.012183445 LOWER BEAVER PARK 05062 * * * * * LOWER GRANITE 05107 * * * * * LOWER MACK GULCH 05196 0.006925896 0.00042796 0.145608263 0.021081816 0.166690062 LOWER SHAWS PARK-A 05212 0.00030707 0.00001027 0.006836791 0.000514526 0.007351255 LOWER SHAWS PARK-B 05212 0.004349742 0.00017017 0.136186618 0.011744657 0.147931235 LOWER TALLAHASSEE 05202 * * * * * LUIS CANYON ^ 0.000125464 0.000009057 0.017387611 0.001649303 0.019036898 LYONS 16002 0.00017877 0.000009149 0.004128806 0.000344409 0.004473252 MADDEN CANYON 05876 0.00234985 0.0000602 0.025848346 0.000601971 0.026450317 MAES CR 05832 0.000261254 0.000011075 0.008996445 0.00064562 0.009642129 MALACHITE 05925 * * * * *
32 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 MALICE DITCH 05792 0.000120531 3.28732E-06 0.003297187 0.000169109 0.003466183 MANZANARES CR 05894 0.004864076 0.000200008 0.226253964 0.014012687 0.240266651 MARTIN RIDGE 05934 0.017062079 0.000652227 0.810481254 0.047898869 0.858380123 MAURICIO-A 05732 0.000175033 0.00000987 0.02485471 0.001855718 0.026710428 MAURICIO-B 05732 0.000214142 1.30527E-05 0.030098322 0.002440396 0.032538714 MAURICIO-C 05732 7.1206E-06 5.0685E-07 0.001002175 0.000094525 0.001096666 MAVERICK GULCH 05091 * * * * * MAY CR 05874 0.003183045 0.000202449 0.158099547 0.0169839 0.175083418 MCCOY GULCH 15049 * * * * * MCFADDEN CR 05802 * * * * * MEADOW GULCH 05221 0.005808123 0.000235403 0.161805708 0.012863601 0.174669356 METHODIST MTN 05898 0.006050788 0.000318877 0.079476788 0.009204559 0.088681348 MEXICAN RIDGE SOUTH 03980 0.000038422 1.07829E-06 0.000789523 0.000036988 0.000826399 MICANITE 05164 0.014528069 0.001116041 0.286837592 0.054986863 0.341824499 MICHIGAN CAMPGROUND-A 05903 0.000250272 9.11768E-06 0.002817516 0.000212937 0.003030406 MICHIGAN CAMPGROUND-B 05903 0.00014199 3.6156E-06 0.001817909 0.000091757 0.001909563 MICHIGAN CAMPGROUND-C 05903 2.34836E-05 5.7897E-07 0.000294841 1.46359E-05 0.000309504 MICHIGAN CAMPGROUND-D 05903 6.57475E-05 1.69382E-06 0.000917167 4.6124E-05 0.000963283 MIDDLE CR N-A 05930 0.003531268 0.000282137 0.157318 0.018286255 0.175604274 MIDDLE CR N-B 05930 0.001419926 0.000108894 0.06579561 0.007113031 0.072908748 MIDDLE CR S-A 05932 0.000647016 1.68528E-05 0.03396042 0.001510643 0.035471123 MIDDLE CR S-B 05932 0.00038351 0.000011045 0.025283107 0.001215064 0.026498212 MIDDLE CR S-C 05932 0.000239956 7.5777E-06 0.01138594 0.000582334 0.011968295 MIDDLE CR S-D 05932 0.000680273 2.89179E-05 0.037045944 0.002068627 0.039114604 MIDDLE CR S-E 05932 0.001265637 7.91541E-05 0.059156888 0.005205531 0.064362491 MIDDLE CR S-F 05932 0.000891091 7.17478E-05 0.039327213 0.004632814 0.043959971
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 33 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 MIDDLE CR S-G 05932 0.000660597 0.000048551 0.031481028 0.003231431 0.034712504 MIDDLE CR S-H 05932 * * * * * MIDDLE TALLAHASSEE 05862 0.006986705 0.000319929 0.211962227 0.017753326 0.229715553 MIDLAND HILL 05871 * * * * * MIKESELL GULCH 05197 0.000265989 1.38666E-05 0.006794217 0.000817344 0.007611714 MILL CR COM 05086 0.004203682 0.000140237 0.098693471 0.007636015 0.106329484 MILL GULCH S 05070 0.002034721 0.00005744 0.052518901 0.003211022 0.055729915 MILL GULCH W 15052 0.009161292 0.000348756 0.19344719 0.016712335 0.210159563 MILLER PLACE 05211 0.004242774 0.00012615 0.090959234 0.005321156 0.096280374 MINERAL CR-A 05767 0.002084637 0.00006897 0.052999762 0.003349059 0.056348844 MINERAL CR-B 05767 0.001383912 3.78257E-05 0.044720661 0.001778583 0.046499254 MINERAL CR-C 05767 0.000362212 1.07017E-05 0.010281596 0.000420189 0.010701754 MINERS GULCH-A 05200 0.008691615 0.000277235 0.246217033 0.014481078 0.260698122 MINERS GULCH-B 05200 0.005567155 0.000224767 0.144679608 0.01175005 0.156429624 MITRE PEAK N 15045 * * * * * MONUMENT CR-A 05154 0.000097046 3.3532E-06 0.002512003 0.000188509 0.002700662 MONUMENT CR-B 05154 0.000685231 0.000022 0.015924637 0.001157588 0.017082239 MONUMENT CR-C 05154 0.000871932 0.000036748 0.020472481 0.001957455 0.022429957 MONUMENT CR-D 05154 0.000060969 2.88659E-06 0.001404916 0.000151169 0.001556069 MOSCA/MULLIGAN 05827 * * * * * MOSCA-A 03893 0.00021838 0.00000947 0.011115171 0.000741913 0.011857082 MOSCA-B 03893 0.000399007 0.000018422 0.023712413 0.001653035 0.025365432 MOSS GULCH 05741 1.91416E-05 5.1809E-07 0.00087761 0.000039465 0.000917091 MOUNT MESTAS-A 05875 * * * * * MOUNT MESTAS-B 05875 * * * * * MT HERRING 05889 0.000582808 0.000023085 0.02483531 0.001564587 0.026399847
34 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 MT PISGAH IND 05067 * * * * * MT PITTSBURG 05839 * * * * * MT SHAVANO-A 05918 0.000041115 1.5614E-06 0.000601704 0.00006422 0.000666029 MT SHAVANO-B 05918 0.000644771 4.24268E-05 0.008644009 0.001925161 0.010569032 MT SHAVANO-C 05918 0.008136513 0.000288884 0.128920965 0.014341015 0.143261921 MT TYNDALL 05888 0.001468314 0.00005868 0.061720606 0.003946724 0.06566733 MUD GULCH 05192 * * * * * MUD SPRINGS 05847 0.000016926 9.604E-07 0.000682729 0.000061392 0.000744074 MUDDY CREEK 05784 0.005781172 0.000162165 0.298690903 0.013184153 0.311875043 MULLIGAN LAKES-A 05720 0.00004978 1.50766E-06 0.000644527 0.000038987 0.000683538 MULLIGAN LAKES-B 05720 0.00003704 1.2704E-06 0.000437326 0.000030184 0.000467547 MULLIGAN LAKES-C 05720 0.000079786 2.3638E-06 0.001048379 0.000061917 0.001110205 MULLIGAN-A 03896 0.00016084 0.00000671 0.007251566 0.000465069 0.007716638 MULLIGAN-B 03896 0.00006057 0.000001551 0.00260024 0.0001113 0.00271152 MULLIGAN-C 03896 0.00003207 8.614E-07 0.001385853 0.00006431 0.001450175 MULLIGAN-D 03896 0.002989204 0.000084605 0.137410247 0.006557842 0.143968068 MULLOCK GULCH 15017 0.000756818 0.000042873 0.016303143 0.002199002 0.018502158 N BADITO-A 05858 0.000092084 3.14501E-06 0.003211211 0.000165243 0.003376486 N BADITO-B 05858 0.002434301 0.000130599 0.080663665 0.006341767 0.08700543 N BEAVER SCHOOL 05306 * * * * * N RATTLESNAKE BUTTE 05829 0.000306017 0.00000635 0.003366182 0.0000635 0.003429678 N RED HILL 05217 0.001067177 0.000035984 0.026024019 0.001968912 0.027992805 N. TALLAHASSEE CREEK 05089 0.007359287 0.000206827 0.181310329 0.011768193 0.193078515 NIPPLE MTN IND 05237 0.009038727 0.00047754 0.12806268 0.012548663 0.140611346 NORTH 40 03684 3.43779E-05 2.1746E-06 0.000693715 0.000108601 0.000802297 NORTH BADGER CREEK 00002 0.000188481 0.000010135 0.003845451 0.000511912 0.004357318
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 35 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 NORTH HONDO-A 03705 0.000096168 5.4934E-06 0.003262385 0.000305977 0.003568315 NORTH HONDO-B 03705 0.001020017 0.00006418 0.033829829 0.003170019 0.036999856 NORTH HONDO-C 03705 0.000023485 1.2794E-06 0.000803321 0.00006913 0.000872617 NORTH HONDO-D 03705 0.005572171 0.000350092 0.184745842 0.017383364 0.202129206 NORTH LAKE ^ 0.000146612 0.000015616 0.020401953 0.002877835 0.023279762 NORTH LUDLOW ^ 0.0000486 0.00000145 0.006899001 0.000272202 0.007171202 NORTH WAUGH 15039 0.002808595 0.00010268 0.062255742 0.005234561 0.0674903 OAK CR-A 15028 0.000628169 0.00001861 0.024138521 0.001432252 0.025570789 OAK CR-B 15028 0.00020026 7.4776E-06 0.008811135 0.000576977 0.009388161 OIL CR COM 05098 * * * * * OIL CR N-A 05103 * * * * * OIL CR N-B 05103 * * * * * OIL CR N-C 05103 0.000572553 2.98839E-05 0.00884601 0.00096564 0.009811511 OIL WELL FLATS 05083 0.02639928 0.000891587 0.580364068 0.039391733 0.6197558 ONE CR/CAT GULCH-B 05061 * * * * * OWENS CREEK-A 15040 0.00013152 0.000006704 0.002847872 0.000337077 0.003184969 OWENS CREEK-B 15040 * * * * * OWENS CREEK-C 15040 * * * * * OWENS CREEK-D 15040 2.24484E-05 9.59703E-07 0.000472018 4.92665E-05 0.000521284 PALMER GULCH 05195 0.0001479 6.7968E-06 0.00526062 0.000486015 0.005746717 PALO DURO CREEK 05868 * * * * * PARK DITCH-A 05764 * * * * * PARK DITCH-B 05764 3.28147E-05 1.74384E-06 0.000482135 0.000080856 0.000562796 PARK DITCH-C 05764 3.21188E-05 1.76297E-06 0.000531511 0.000085157 0.000616643 PARK DITCH-D 05764 0.000033752 1.7915E-06 0.000556772 0.0000864 0.000643188 PARK DITCH-E 05764 * * * * *
36 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 PARK DITCH-F 05764 * * * * * PARK GULCH E-A 05828 2.00562E-05 6.01392E-07 0.00022415 1.35289E-05 0.000237697 PARK GULCH E-B 05828 0.000101569 2.49708E-06 0.001327553 0.0000621 0.001389696 PARK GULCH-G 05800 0.000014621 3.944E-07 0.000264792 0.000011864 0.000276793 PARK GULCH-H 05800 0.000444137 1.19556E-05 0.006858945 0.000313409 0.007172349 PARK GULCH-I 05800 1.20347E-05 2.9286E-07 0.000158017 7.3686E-06 0.000165327 PARK GULCH-J 05800 0.00003999 9.9811E-07 0.00063152 0.000028223 0.000659703 PARK GULCH-K 05800 0.0001831 0.000004509 0.00270309 0.00012781 0.002830876 PARK MTN 05163 0.012405195 0.000387665 0.321110257 0.02082496 0.341935264 PARKDALE 00004 * * * * * PASS CR-A 05941 0.000323387 1.81766E-05 0.003876631 0.000741857 0.004618326 PASS CR-B 05941 0.017110951 0.00088757 0.201238398 0.028513606 0.229751942 PATTERSON HOLLOW-A 05919 0.000004625 4.587E-07 0.0000764 0.00000671 0.0000831 PATTERSON HOLLOW-B 05919 0.000001541 4.231E-08 0.000032 0.000000892 0.0000329 PENSTOCK 15024 * * * * * PHANTOM CANYON 05072 0.031401192 0.001193077 0.522032712 0.030047856 0.552080566 PHELPS CANYON 05927 0.0000386 0.00000146 0.005474235 0.000275256 0.005749491 PICKETWIRE 05791 0.00000126 0.00000013 0.000178248 0.0000244 0.000202694 PINE GULCH-A 05068 0.000013311 3.856E-07 0.000593411 0.000028344 0.000621725 PINE GULCH-B 05068 4.04717E-05 1.88853E-06 0.001960828 0.000166023 0.002126791 PINE GULCH-C 05068 0.000382187 2.03272E-05 0.018701768 0.0019092 0.020611007 PINE GULCH-D 05068 0.000970929 0.000042138 0.041177544 0.003598985 0.044776522 PLAYA LAKES 05939 0.000535199 1.42313E-05 0.011326075 0.000495366 0.011821466 POLE GULCH 05077 * * * * * PONCHA PARK 15038 0.001625021 0.000049933 0.033242076 0.002584774 0.035826767 PONY GULCH 05093 * * * * *
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 37 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 POWELL ARROYO-A 05755 0.0000091 0.000000444 0.00129195 0.0000835 0.001375472 POWELL ARROYO-B 05755 0.0000119 0.000000467 0.001688327 0.0000878 0.001776112 POWELL ARROYO-C 05755 0.00014222 0.00000877 0.02019519 0.001648062 0.021843252 POWELL ARROYO-D 05755 0.00000121 5.89E-08 0.000171286 0.0000111 0.000182359 POWELL ARROYO-E 05755 0.000031 0.000000996 0.004403639 0.000187326 0.004590965 POWELL ARROYO-F 05755 0.000018 0.000000482 0.002550623 0.0000906 0.002641184 PRUDEN CREEK 05169 0.000214875 6.58179E-06 0.002715208 0.000201717 0.002916923 QUARTZ VALLEY 26029 0.000941781 0.000049057 0.044535652 0.004649814 0.049185368 RACE PATH 05238 * * * * * RATTLESNAKE 15014 * * * * * RED GULCH 05188 0.018027094 0.00083562 0.474699678 0.044629372 0.519329051 RED HILL PASS-A 05770 * * * * * RED HILL PASS-B 05770 * * * * * RED HILL PASS-C 05700 0.000119496 1.07256E-05 0.002845994 0.000426032 0.003272043 RED TOP ROAD 05806 0.000266748 0.00000954 0.002934228 0.0000954 0.003029609 RED TOP-A 05702 0.00000635 0.00000031 0.0000699 0.0000031 0.000073 RED TOP-B 05702 0.000035 0.00000112 0.000384597 0.0000112 0.000395831 RED TOP-C 05702 0.000305475 0.0000072 0.003360226 0.000072 0.003432201 RED TOP-D 05702 0.000172762 0.00000358 0.001900378 0.0000358 0.001936225 RED TOP-E 05702 0.00011085 0.0000023 0.001219351 0.000023 0.001242352 RED TOP-F 05702 0.000421584 0.00000875 0.004637428 0.0000875 0.004724904 RED WING 05746 0.000446225 0.000016635 0.021259725 0.001139478 0.022399217 REDWING 2 03897 0.000646604 0.000026726 0.028533454 0.001819007 0.030352484 REED GULCH ^ 0.000052644 2.0499E-06 0.00210956 0.00014506 0.002254655 REINKE RIDGE 05194 0.002153979 0.000127371 0.047197807 0.006566281 0.053764067 REVEILLE CANYON-A 05725 0.000309865 0.000008302 0.012149283 0.000581979 0.012731248
38 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 REVEILLE CANYON-B 05725 0.00013176 0.000005012 0.005171394 0.000335838 0.005507136 REVEILLE CANYON-C 05725 0.0001185 0.000005365 0.004181847 0.000315947 0.004497814 REVEILLE CANYON-D 05725 0.000391022 0.000013354 0.01526827 0.000841684 0.01610996 REVEILLE CANYON-E 05725 0.000051456 3.1227E-06 0.001795824 0.000164057 0.001959843 REVEILLE CANYON-F 05725 0.000020271 1.47701E-06 0.000691625 0.00007442 0.000766039 REVEILLE CANYON-G 05725 0.000089154 5.4209E-06 0.003073921 0.000278231 0.003352204 RHYOLITE MTN 05244 * * * * * RITO OSO 05776 0.002689495 0.000160211 0.134745504 0.011021825 0.145767329 RITO OSO CR 05742 * * * * * ROCK CR 05726 0.006829664 0.00019539 0.158863756 0.007101958 0.165965712 ROCK HOUSE 05076 0.011679429 0.000508364 0.258897412 0.025113649 0.284011075 ROSITA-A 05734 0.00001655 5.118E-07 0.000880898 0.0000452 0.000926109 ROSITA-B 05734 0.0000753 0.000002375 0.004146472 0.0002032 0.004349647 ROSITA-D 05734 0.001586485 3.72302E-05 0.077299796 0.00312907 0.080428867 ROUGH MTN-A 05917 * * * * * ROUGH MTN-B 05917 * * * * * ROUGH MTN-C 05917 * * * * * ROUGH MTN-D 05917 * * * * * ROUGH MTN-E 05917 * * * * * RUBY GULCH 15019 0.000043898 1.8525E-06 0.000673894 0.00004893 0.000722921 RUBY MTN 05701 * * * * * RULE CR 05836 0.00000138 5.41E-08 0.000108757 0.00000703 0.000115786 RYE SLOUGH N 05155 0.000305746 7.9422E-06 0.006645807 0.000406908 0.007052736 RYE SLOUGH S 05087 0.000521683 1.28739E-05 0.010762207 0.000635456 0.011397657 S ABEYTA 05723 0.003759547 0.000302716 0.167855236 0.01959868 0.187453928 S CHAMA 05933 0.001524258 0.00005795 0.071866654 0.003964096 0.075830795
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 39 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 S GARDEN PARK 05066 0.000613465 0.00002451 0.015027801 0.001136658 0.016164454 S GARDNER 05775 0.000684209 0.000034285 0.02924842 0.002201464 0.031449856 S JACK HALL 05075 0.003005073 0.00012354 0.069999506 0.006494176 0.076493769 S MARTIN 05727 0.000862899 0.000025538 0.037703698 0.001783523 0.03948719 S RED HILL 05216 0.0019013 0.000062378 0.048458845 0.003461347 0.051920122 S SPRING BRANCH-A 05803 0.000874973 0.000075857 0.036208276 0.00480628 0.041014515 S SPRING BRANCH-B 05803 * * * * * S SPRING BRANCH-C 05803 * * * * * SALT CANYON 05226 0.000303256 7.07704E-06 0.003435566 0.000117822 0.003553363 SALT WORKS PASTURE 05180 0.001526972 0.000077982 0.054695612 0.00687032 0.061565931 SAN ISIDRO 05860 0.0000219 0.00000124 0.001730733 0.000160613 0.001891346 SAND ARROYO 05833 0.00004273 0.000001249 0.002145375 0.00009684 0.002242173 SAND GULCH COM 15007 * * * * * SANFORD HILLS-A 05885 0.0000789 0.00000234 0.000867436 0.0000234 0.000890818 SANFORD HILLS-B 05885 0.000148438 0.0000044 0.001632815 0.000044 0.00167683 SANFORD HILLS-C 05885 0.000146386 0.00000598 0.001610248 0.0000598 0.001670075 SANFORD HILLS-D 05885 0.000160495 0.00000656 0.001765441 0.0000656 0.001831034 SANFORD HILLS-E 05885 0.000377429 0.0000154 0.004151717 0.000154251 0.004305968 SANTA CLARA CR-A 05943 0.000002952 2.7621E-07 0.000204086 2.18401E-05 0.000225829 SANTA CLARA CR-B 05943 3.3969E-06 3.1007E-07 0.00021612 0.000022523 0.000238627 SANTA MARIA-A 05744 0.000019699 6.8163E-07 0.000520893 0.000032115 0.000553042 SANTA MARIA-B 05744 0.000115858 3.55287E-06 0.002942725 0.000171541 0.003114201 SANTANA CANYON 05821 0.00011884 0.000007161 0.003946913 0.000380974 0.004327755 SAUNDERS ARROYO-A 05817 0.0000371 0.00000095 0.000408037 0.0000095 0.00041754 SAUNDERS ARROYO-B 05817 0.0000321 0.00000112 0.000352722 0.0000112 0.000363947 SCATTERED PARCELS-A ^ 0.000996706 5.28814E-05 0.048750746 0.005153676 0.053904511
40 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 SCATTERED PARCELS-B ^ * * * * * SCHOOLFIELD-A 05719 0.00003349 0.000001028 0.001598428 0.0000813 0.001679744 SCHOOLFIELD-B 05719 0.0001141 0.000003546 0.005939061 0.000292739 0.006231807 SCHOOLHOUSE GULCH 05219 0.002957412 8.76546E-05 0.072703079 0.004697057 0.077400143 SCOUT CAMP-A 05730 0.0001173 0.00000969 0.012802402 0.001675834 0.014478254 SCOUT CAMP-B 05730 0.0001446 0.00001142 0.015075102 0.001942926 0.017018027 SEVEN L BUTTE 05766 0.0000454 0.000001627 0.00221504 0.00012967 0.002344724 SHARPSDALE 05940 0.001755719 0.00007145 0.083148601 0.004680652 0.087829219 SHAWS PARK 05138 0.000429681 0.000017891 0.013192706 0.001162195 0.014354839 SHEEP CR 05705 0.0000805 0.00000292 0.004116328 0.000234994 0.004351392 SIEBERT 05128 0.004366137 0.000252495 0.136395604 0.01575292 0.152148523 SILOAM ROAD-A 05774 0.00002793 7.077E-07 0.000583462 0.00001955 0.000603015 SILOAM ROAD-B 05774 0.0001161 0.00000447 0.002863608 0.000217058 0.00308065 SILVER CLIFF 05946 0.000056112 1.66752E-06 0.00279488 0.000141876 0.002936669 SILVER MTN N 05722 * * * * * SILVER MTN W 05721 * * * * * SILVER MTN-A 05765 * * * * * SILVER MTN-B 05765 * * * * * SILVER MTN-C 05765 * * * * * SILVERHEEL 05853 7.80723E-05 5.27671E-06 0.001967502 0.000216573 0.002184068 SIX MILE PARK 05223 0.013834127 0.000388292 0.329260935 0.015338624 0.344599561 SIXMILE 15011 0.004038032 0.000121227 0.087155577 0.004515885 0.091671409 SKAGWAY S PASTURE 05208 * * * * * SKYLINE 05176 * * * * * SOAPY HILL 05162 0.006770219 0.00016604 0.194224837 0.010082867 0.204307658 SODA CR-A 05848 0.000557546 0.000022752 0.006484519 0.000298439 0.006782982
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 41 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 SODA CR-B 05848 0.000189759 1.06311E-05 0.002162082 0.00013272 0.002294792 SODA CR-C 05848 0.000377485 1.91564E-05 0.004614845 0.000273795 0.004888716 SODA CR-D 05848 0.000230327 1.40389E-05 0.002613733 0.000175382 0.002789094 SODA MTN 15032 0.003478774 9.67384E-05 0.052424807 0.002733053 0.055157906 SOUTH HONDO-A 03821 0.000039539 1.8738E-06 0.001364326 0.000107 0.001471422 SOUTH HONDO-B 03821 0.000292729 0.000012245 0.010152529 0.000687295 0.010839831 SOUTH PALO DURO CK-A 00025 0.00284305 0.00009901 0.126310521 0.006744072 0.133054593 SOUTH PALO DURO CK-B 00025 0.001400974 0.00004877 0.062673372 0.003402729 0.066076112 SOUTH PALO DURO CK-C 00025 0.004374078 0.000163237 0.20277197 0.011287767 0.214059736 SOUTH TALLAHASSEE 05248 * * * * * SOUTH TEXAS CREEK 03509 0.005875268 0.000222208 0.2415871 0.018904438 0.260491538 SPRING BRANCH E 05781 * * * * * SPRING CR N 15013 * * * * * ST CHARLES 05706 0.000735155 0.00001948 0.023373784 0.000912789 0.024286543 ST JUDE-A 05897 0.000061525 2.4423E-06 0.002248081 0.00015097 0.002399071 ST JUDE-B 05897 0.000223792 1.14668E-05 0.007639176 0.000622252 0.008261436 STANLEY CREEK 05908 * * * * * STEEL GULCH 05913 0.000630373 1.77714E-05 0.00881893 0.000419674 0.009238568 STONY FACE COM 15018 * * * * * STOUT CR 05177 0.00011633 4.3682E-06 0.004482903 0.00024777 0.004730609 STRAUB MTN 05110 * * * * * SUGARLOAF MTN-A 05751 0.000027541 1.4559E-06 0.00079188 0.000099203 0.000891141 SUGARLOAF MTN-B 05751 * * * * * SUGARLOAF MTN-C 05751 * * * * * TABLE MTN 15001 * * * * * TALLAHASSEE ROAD 05190 0.004147328 0.00011874 0.094460232 0.006008312 0.100468606
42 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 TARRYALL CR 05754 3.95206E-05 1.0128E-06 0.000603198 2.96618E-05 0.000632734 TEEPLE 05737 0.0000415 0.00000153 0.000456977 0.0000153 0.000472237 TEMPLE CANYON 05055 * * * * * TEXAS CREEK 03508 * * * * * THE CORONA ^ 0.0000665 0.00000197 0.005255336 0.000256429 0.005511765 THOMPSON ARROYO 05823 0.0000892 0.00000319 0.007045239 0.000414545 0.007459784 THREEMILE CR-A 05787 0.000087424 4.4825E-06 0.001864964 0.000237559 0.00210237 THREEMILE CR-B 05787 0.00447523 0.000302282 0.102763825 0.01647703 0.119240852 TINGLEY CANYON-A 05738 0.00000322 7.48E-08 0.000457751 0.0000141 0.000471807 TINGLEY CANYON-B 05738 0.0000176 0.00000086 0.002500848 0.000161675 0.002662523 TINGLEY CANYON-C 05738 0.0000512 0.00000113 0.007275414 0.000212783 0.007488197 TINGLEY CANYON-D 05738 0.00011136 0.00000246 0.015813055 0.00046248 0.016275535 TINGLEY CANYON-E 05738 0.000265062 0.00000661 0.037638757 0.001243476 0.038882233 TOMBSTONE HILL-A 05743 0.000028023 1.3007E-06 0.003362997 0.000144138 0.003507125 TOMBSTONE HILL-B 05743 0.000006673 3.362E-07 0.000781679 0.00003421 0.000815841 TOMBSTONE HILL-C 05743 0.000004776 2.124E-07 0.00056352 0.000021009 0.000584569 TRACHYTE KNOB 05101 * * * * * TRAIL CANYON 05251 * * * * * TROUT CR 05735 0.000567209 3.14485E-05 0.014685093 0.001393315 0.016078543 TROUT CR N-A 05088 9.57496E-05 8.62983E-06 0.002419424 0.000355616 0.00277506 TROUT CR N-B 05088 * * * * * TROUT CR N-C 05088 3.54627E-05 2.09998E-06 0.000832364 8.4406E-05 0.000916732 TROUT CR S 05080 8.38998E-05 2.83841E-06 0.002146146 0.000136346 0.002282577 TRUJILLO CANYON 05716 0.000642907 0.000039134 0.090506725 0.007341182 0.097847907 TURKEY CR 05857 0.00064432 0.000024721 0.023264347 0.001515745 0.024780089 TURKEY RIDGE-A 05771 0.000005771 4.394E-07 0.0001227 0.00001134 0.0001341
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 43 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 TURKEY RIDGE-B 05771 0.000001881 7.78E-08 0.00004865 0.000003174 0.0000518 TURKEY RIDGE-C 05771 0.00003697 1.1962E-06 0.001022563 0.000057462 0.001079923 TURKEY RIDGE-D 05711 0.00001423 0.00000083 0.000285005 0.00002464 0.000309677 TWELVEMILE CLUB-A 05851 0.000132843 6.3208E-06 0.005200741 0.000649138 0.00584989 TWELVEMILE CLUB-B 05851 0.000036338 1.0736E-06 0.001413463 0.000098102 0.001511695 TWELVEMILE CLUB-C 05851 0.000080036 1.9567E-06 0.00292869 0.00015237 0.003081099 TWELVEMILE CLUB-D 05851 0.000240355 1.17344E-05 0.009878932 0.001253289 0.011132138 TWELVEMILE PARK 05151 0.000912393 0.000044537 0.027557522 0.002688696 0.030246235 TWELVEMILE WOODS 05123 0.004025403 0.000206973 0.10865257 0.010663199 0.11931577 TWIN MTN 05301 0.013844276 0.000656846 0.404998989 0.048166429 0.453165416 TWO BUTTES CR-B 05758 0.0000005 6.53E-08 0.0000395 0.00000849 0.000048 U LONG GULCH 05156 1.28027E-05 3.5472E-07 0.000270923 0.000018315 0.000289172 UNDERHILL-A 05047 0.000201503 1.34954E-05 0.005876271 0.000807001 0.006683325 UNDERHILL-B 05047 0.009946826 0.000549103 0.2714321 0.030822084 0.302254211 UNDERHILL-C 05047 0.00659646 0.000250235 0.156760091 0.012657905 0.169418019 UPPER BONEYARD 05084 0.000023062 1.3618E-06 0.000875384 0.000086296 0.000961793 UTE LAKE 05753 0.000027237 9.229E-07 0.000584077 0.000029518 0.000613567 UTE LOG 05872 0.000113055 0.000004791 0.00452435 0.00031809 0.004842409 VANBROMER ARROYO 05788 0.0000603 0.00000525 0.004761744 0.000683058 0.005444802 VICTOR PASS 05112 0.001013388 4.59566E-05 0.017028776 0.001712466 0.018741171 VIGIL CANYON-A 05710 0.000048021 1.2792E-06 0.000536735 0.000013114 0.000549865 VIGIL CANYON-B 05710 0.000326188 0.000010988 0.003882406 0.000148025 0.004030408 VIRGINIA DALE 26008 * * * * * VVN ALLOTMENT 05106 0.000241811 5.81022E-06 0.004934478 0.000277998 0.005212471 W BEAVER CR 15023 * * * * * W BOX CANYON 05179 0.024418015 0.001445238 0.496639447 0.059884399 0.556523846
44 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 W CORDOVA 05911 0.000051001 1.18356E-06 0.000587501 0.000012468 0.000599986 W FAIRPLAY 05757 6.06761E-05 3.00403E-06 0.001754854 0.000148826 0.001903626 W FOURMILE CR 15044 0.000192289 0.000009427 0.002615467 0.000361368 0.002976802 W GUFFEY-A 05124 0.000607579 0.000028109 0.011374489 0.001340445 0.01271501 W GUFFEY-B 05124 0.000467587 0.000018321 0.00888019 0.000877486 0.009757633 W PASS CR 05713 0.020293586 0.000985458 0.907674635 0.065479226 0.973153861 WAGON TONGUE 05059 6.47636E-05 2.69924E-06 0.001482245 0.000149973 0.001632276 WAGON TONGUE (OLD) ^ 0.001583192 4.62843E-05 0.040918531 0.002925992 0.04384462 WALL MTN 05181 0.002908631 8.18201E-05 0.068474786 0.004180155 0.072654987 WALSEN ARROYO 05724 0.000009971 2.4191E-07 0.001171064 3.76123E-05 0.001208721 WALSENBURG N-A 05902 0.0000256 0.000000896 0.000854335 0.0000485 0.000902848 WALSENBURG N-B 05902 0.0000356 0.000001278 0.001155018 0.000067 0.001222038 WALSENBURG N-C 05902 2.73087E-05 9.66153E-07 0.000890492 5.10287E-05 0.000941458 WALSENBURG N-D 05902 0.00003268 1.04971E-06 0.001179805 0.00005946 0.00123927 WARM SPRINGS 05729 0.000323162 9.36532E-06 0.010462004 0.000691945 0.011153973 WAUGH MOUNTAIN 05199 0.003019747 0.00015107 0.063863964 0.007556486 0.071420449 WEBSTER GULCH 05234 0.006101851 0.0001945 0.168974784 0.009868314 0.178843096 WELLSVILLE 05005 * * * * * WELLSVILLE ALLOTMENT 05807 * * * * * WEST HIGH CK 02923 0.000052618 1.7732E-06 0.001725042 0.000121717 0.00184674 WEST PREACHER GULCH 05242 0.000324964 0.000021933 0.00907895 0.001224727 0.010303796 WEST SOMMERVILLE 05120 * * * * * WHITE HILLS-A 05763 0.000009649 3.3904E-07 0.000555889 0.000030417 0.000586372 WHITE HILLS-B 05763 7.3922E-06 2.6388E-07 0.000421658 0.000023768 0.000445481 WHITE HILLS-C 05763 5.1879E-06 1.878E-07 0.000268816 0.000015485 0.000284305 WHITE HILLS-D 05763 1.8468E-06 6.496E-08 0.000088396 5.0674E-06 0.000093563
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 45 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 WHITE HILLS-E 05763 0.000031165 1.0527E-06 0.001498843 0.000084028 0.001582934 WHITE HILLS-F 05763 0.000201548 6.84634E-06 0.01048788 0.000575301 0.011063234 WHITEROCK-A 05816 0.000027 0.000000751 0.000297172 0.00000751 0.000304682 WHITEROCK-B 05816 0.0000392 0.00000144 0.000430933 0.0000144 0.000445323 WHITEROCK-C 05816 0.000023 0.000000846 0.000253351 0.00000846 0.000261811 WILBUR 05159 0.023223001 0.001170135 0.374900738 0.037168569 0.412069306 WILMER GULCH-A 05878 0.000227331 0.00000527 0.01057738 0.000421947 0.010999328 WILMER GULCH-B 05878 0.000411597 0.00000953 0.019208718 0.000766316 0.019975034 WILSON CR 05300 0.022979787 0.000978074 0.607516626 0.059581972 0.667098613 WIXSON MTN-A 05855 2.44644E-05 6.6392E-07 0.000954484 0.000042235 0.000996732 WIXSON MTN-B 05855 0.000033912 8.307E-07 0.001450981 0.00005739 0.00150827 WIXSON MTN-C 05855 0.000023701 6.093E-07 0.000907155 0.000037347 0.000944413 WIXSON MTN-D 05855 0.000209088 0.000006544 0.008569681 0.000435137 0.00900474 WIXSON MTN-E 05855 0.000277256 0.000008632 0.010751802 0.000539236 0.011291045 WIXSON MTN-F 05855 1.90767E-05 1.0014E-06 0.000771149 0.000067717 0.000838819 WIXSON MTN-G 05855 0.001365287 0.00007063 0.052553816 0.004505577 0.0570594 WOLF CANYON-A ^ 0.000015 0.000000331 0.00212988 0.0000623 0.002192172 WOLF CANYON-B ^ 0.00000498 0.000000134 0.000707531 0.0000251 0.000732681 WOLF CANYON-C ^ 0.00000382 0.000000118 0.000542682 0.0000222 0.000564892 WORLEY COUNTRY 05082 0.011571058 0.000468726 0.259198788 0.020981622 0.28018041 WRIGHT RESERVOIR 05131 0.013440191 0.000928299 0.184298236 0.032319986 0.216618215 YELLOWSTONE CR 05718 * * * * *
*This allotment intersects the bighorn sheep overall range polygon and is therefore not included in the RoC analysis. ^This allotment does not have an allotment number because it is un-allotted. 1Annual/seasonal probability that a typical ram will leave the bighorn sheep overall range and contact the allotment. 2Annual/seasonal probability that a typical ewe will leave the bighorn sheep overall range and contact this allotment. 3Expected number of rams contacting an allotment each year. 4Expected number of ewes contacting the allotment each year.
46 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Allotment Single Ram Single Ewe All Ram Contact All Ewe Contact All Herd Contact Allotment Name Number Probability1 Probability2 Rate3 Rate4 Rate5 5Expected number of adult bighorn sheep (rams plus ewes) expected to foray from the bighorn sheep overall range and contact the allotment each year.
Table 2.6. Estimated Years between Potential Disease Events for the Eastern Colorado RMP Planning Area (RoC Model)
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 12 MILE PARK NORTH 02697 179 179 239 359 718 1794 3588 31 MILE CREEK 05060 11 11 15 22 45 112 225 31 MILE MTN ALLOT 05125 8 8 10 15 31 77 154 39 MILE MTN 05204 637 637 850 1275 2549 6373 12745 ADOBE CANYON 05924 176 176 235 352 705 1762 3525 ADOBE PARK 05845 1006 1006 1341 2012 4023 10058 20116 AGATE BEDS 05042 4 4 5 8 15 38 75 AGATE MTN 05931 40 40 53 80 159 399 797 AGUILAR 05841 45 45 59 89 178 446 891 ALAMO-B 05834 167 167 223 335 670 1674 3348 ALLOTMENT 104 ^ 8000000 8000000 10666400 16000000 32000000 80000000 160000000 ALLOTMENT 105 ^ 87719 87719 116956 175439 350877 877193 1754386 ALLOTMENT 119 ^ 384320 384320 512414 768640 1537279 3843198 7686395 ALLOTMENT 120 ^ 5962 5962 7949 11924 23848 59619 119239 ALLOTMENT 121 ^ 18639 18639 24852 37279 74557 186393 372787 ALLOTMENT 122 ^ 46 46 61 91 183 457 913 ALLOTMENT 123 ^ 943 943 1257 1886 3771 9428 18856 ALLOTMENT 124 ^ 26 26 34 52 103 258 517 ALLOTMENT 125 ^ 35 35 47 70 140 350 700
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 47 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 ALLOTMENT 126 ^ 116 116 154 232 463 1159 2317 ALLOTMENT 127 ^ 368 368 491 737 1473 3684 7367 ALLOTMENT 128 ^ 178 178 237 355 711 1776 3553 ALLOTMENT 129 ^ 812 812 1082 1624 3247 8118 16235 ALLOTMENT 130 ^ 371 371 495 743 1486 3715 7429 ALLOTMENT 131 ^ 161 161 214 321 643 1607 3215 ALLOTMENT 132 ^ 218 218 291 436 872 2181 4362 ALLOTMENT 133 ^ 1 1 1 2 4 9 18 ALLOTMENT 134 ^ 9 9 12 18 36 90 180 ALLOTMENT 135 ^ 8 8 11 16 32 80 160 ALLOTMENT 136 ^ 6 6 8 11 23 57 115 ALLOTMENT 137 ^ 22 22 29 43 87 217 434 ALLOTMENT 138 ^ 3 3 3 5 10 26 51 ALLOTMENT 139 ^ 415 415 553 829 1659 4147 8293 ALLOTMENT 141 ^ 262 262 349 523 1047 2617 5234 ALLOTMENT 143 ^ 17 17 22 33 66 166 331 ALLOTMENT 145 ^ 147 147 196 294 587 1468 2935 ALLOTMENT 146 ^ 106 106 141 211 422 1056 2112 ALLOTMENT 147 ^ 231 231 307 461 922 2305 4610 ALLOTMENT 148 ^ 152 152 202 303 606 1516 3032 ALLOTMENT 149 ^ 301 301 402 603 1206 3014 6028 ALLOTMENT 153-A ^ 19 19 25 38 76 190 380 ALLOTMENT 153-B ^ 34 34 45 68 136 339 678 ALLOTMENT 153-C ^ 27 27 36 53 107 266 533 ALLOTMENT 154 ^ 16 16 22 33 66 164 329
48 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 ALLOTMENT 155 ^ 2 2 2 4 7 18 36 ALLOTMENT 156 ^ 347 347 463 695 1390 3475 6949 ALLOTMENT 157 ^ 9 9 12 18 36 89 178 ALLOTMENT 158 ^ 25 25 34 50 101 252 505 ALLOTMENT 159 ^ 2050 2050 2733 4100 8200 20499 40999 ALLOTMENT 161 ^ 53 53 71 107 213 533 1066 ALLOTMENT 162 ^ 446 446 595 892 1784 4461 8922 ALLOTMENT 163 ^ 310 310 414 621 1241 3103 6205 ALLOTMENT 164 ^ 516 516 688 1032 2065 5162 10323 ALLOTMENT 165 ^ 705 705 940 1410 2819 7049 14097 ALLOTMENT 166 ^ 693 693 924 1386 2772 6930 13860 ALLOTMENT 167 ^ 1683 1683 2244 3367 6734 16834 33668 ALLOTMENT 168 ^ 303 303 403 605 1210 3026 6051 ALLOTMENT 170 ^ 642 642 855 1283 2566 6415 12831 ALLOTMENT 171 ^ 464 464 618 928 1855 4638 9275 ALLOTMENT 172 ^ 794 794 1058 1587 3174 7935 15870 ALLOTMENT 173 ^ 775 775 1034 1551 3101 7753 15507 ALLOTMENT 174 ^ 13 13 17 26 52 129 258 ALLOTMENT 175 ^ 34 34 45 67 134 336 671 ALLOTMENT 176 ^ 2757 2757 3676 5514 11027 27568 55136 ALLOTMENT 177 ^ 2574 2574 3431 5147 10294 25735 51470 ALLOTMENT 178 ^ 1519 1519 2025 3038 6075 15188 30375 ALLOTMENT 179 ^ 660 660 880 1321 2642 6604 13208 ALLOTMENT 18 ^ 1850139 1850139 2466790 3700278 7400555 18501388 37002775 ALLOTMENT 180 ^ 193 193 258 386 773 1932 3864
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 49 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 ALLOTMENT 181 ^ 182 182 243 364 728 1820 3639 ALLOTMENT 182 ^ 1728 1728 2304 3456 6913 17282 34564 ALLOTMENT 183 ^ 566 566 755 1132 2265 5662 11324 ALLOTMENT 184 ^ 201 201 268 402 803 2008 4016 ALLOTMENT 185 ^ 40 40 53 80 159 398 795 ALLOTMENT 186 ^ 239 239 319 478 956 2390 4781 ALLOTMENT 187 ^ 43 43 58 86 173 432 864 ALLOTMENT 188 ^ 240 240 320 479 959 2397 4795 ALLOTMENT 189 ^ 284 284 379 569 1138 2844 5688 ALLOTMENT 19 ^ 598444 598444 797905 1196888 2393776 5984440 11968881 ALLOTMENT 190 ^ 276 276 369 553 1106 2764 5528 ALLOTMENT 191 ^ 490 490 653 980 1960 4900 9799 ALLOTMENT 192 ^ 711 711 948 1422 2844 7110 14220 ALLOTMENT 193 ^ 96 96 128 193 385 964 1927 ALLOTMENT 194 ^ 70 70 93 140 280 701 1402 ALLOTMENT 195 ^ 184 184 246 368 737 1841 3683 ALLOTMENT 196 ^ 116 116 155 233 466 1164 2328 ALLOTMENT 197 ^ 1346 1346 1794 2691 5383 13457 26914 ALLOTMENT 198 ^ 141 141 188 282 564 1410 2820 ALLOTMENT 199 ^ 292 292 390 585 1170 2925 5849 ALLOTMENT 200 ^ 3666 3666 4888 7332 14664 36660 73321 ALLOTMENT 202 ^ 97 97 129 194 388 971 1941 ALLOTMENT 203 ^ 12 12 16 24 48 120 241 ALLOTMENT 205-B ^ 8 8 10 16 31 79 157 ALLOTMENT 207 ^ 25 25 34 50 101 252 504
50 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 ALLOTMENT 208 ^ 117 117 156 234 467 1169 2337 ALLOTMENT 209 ^ 69 69 92 137 275 687 1375 ALLOTMENT 216 ^ 31 31 42 63 126 314 628 ALLOTMENT 217 ^ 37 37 50 75 149 373 745 ALLOTMENT 218 ^ 1262 1262 1683 2524 5048 12621 25242 ALLOTMENT 222 ^ 721 721 962 1442 2885 7212 14423 ALLOTMENT 223 ^ 722 722 962 1443 2887 7217 14434 ALLOTMENT 226 ^ 72 72 96 145 289 723 1445 ALLOTMENT 227 ^ 1726 1726 2302 3453 6906 17265 34529 ALLOTMENT 228 ^ 115 115 153 230 460 1150 2299 ALLOTMENT 229 ^ 227 227 303 455 909 2273 4546 ALLOTMENT 230 ^ 1081 1081 1442 2162 4325 10812 21624 ALLOTMENT 231 ^ 197 197 263 394 788 1969 3939 ALLOTMENT 232 ^ 153 153 204 307 613 1533 3066 ALLOTMENT 238 ^ 22 22 30 45 89 223 447 ALLOTMENT 241 ^ 533 533 711 1066 2133 5331 10663 ALLOTMENT 242 ^ 51 51 68 102 205 512 1025 ALLOTMENT 243 ^ 1300 1300 1733 2600 5200 13001 26001 ALLOTMENT 244 ^ 1802 1802 2402 3603 7207 18017 36033 ALLOTMENT 245 ^ 1642 1642 2189 3283 6567 16417 32833 ALLOTMENT 246 ^ 2870 2870 3826 5739 11479 28696 57393 ALLOTMENT 247 ^ 129 129 172 259 517 1293 2585 ALLOTMENT 248 ^ 317 317 423 634 1269 3172 6344 ALLOTMENT 249 ^ 2729 2729 3639 5459 10917 27294 54587 ALLOTMENT 250 ^ 4317 4317 5756 8635 17269 43173 86345
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 51 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 ALLOTMENT 251 ^ 350 350 466 699 1398 3495 6990 ALLOTMENT 252 ^ 2563 2563 3417 5126 10252 25629 51258 ALLOTMENT 253 ^ 4542 4542 6056 9084 18169 45422 90843 ALLOTMENT 254 ^ 5141 5141 6854 10282 20563 51409 102817 ALLOTMENT 255 ^ 2056 2056 2741 4112 8224 20560 41121 ALLOTMENT 256 ^ 1826 1826 2434 3651 7302 18256 36512 ALLOTMENT 257 ^ 3598 3598 4797 7196 14391 35978 71955 ALLOTMENT 258 ^ 5328 5328 7103 10655 21311 53277 106553 ALLOTMENT 259 ^ 4374 4374 5832 8748 17496 43739 87478 ALLOTMENT 260 ^ 2767 2767 3689 5533 11066 27665 55330 ALLOTMENT 261 ^ 1796 1796 2395 3592 7185 17962 35924 ALLOTMENT 262 ^ 859 859 1146 1718 3437 8592 17185 ALLOTMENT 263 ^ 462 462 616 924 1848 4620 9240 ALLOTMENT 264 ^ 168 168 224 336 671 1679 3357 ALLOTMENT 265 ^ 6793 6793 9058 13587 27174 67935 135870 ALLOTMENT 266 ^ 502 502 669 1004 2008 5020 10041 ALLOTMENT 267 ^ 1252 1252 1669 2504 5008 12521 25042 ALLOTMENT 268 ^ 1645 1645 2193 3289 6579 16446 32893 ALLOTMENT 269 ^ 1983 1983 2644 3967 7933 19833 39666 ALLOTMENT 270 ^ 836 836 1114 1672 3343 8359 16717 ALLOTMENT 271 ^ 7590 7590 10120 15181 30362 75905 151810 ALLOTMENT 30 ^ 142 142 189 283 567 1417 2835 ALLOTMENT 32 ^ 128 128 171 256 512 1279 2559 ALLOTMENT 33 ^ 156 156 207 311 622 1555 3111 ALLOTMENT 34 ^ 44 44 59 88 177 442 883
52 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 ALLOTMENT 35 ^ 21 21 28 42 84 210 420 ALLOTMENT 36 ^ 40 40 53 80 159 399 797 ALLOTMENT 37 ^ 268 268 357 536 1072 2679 5359 ALLOTMENT 39 ^ 8 8 11 16 32 79 159 ALLOTMENT 40 ^ 685 685 914 1371 2741 6854 13707 ALLOTMENT 41 ^ 170 170 227 341 681 1703 3405 ALLOTMENT 42 ^ 244 244 326 488 977 2442 4884 ALLOTMENT 44 ^ 196 196 261 392 784 1959 3918 ALLOTMENT 68 ^ 3184 3184 4245 6368 12736 31841 63682 ALLOTMENT 69 ^ 28490 28490 37986 56980 113960 284900 569801 ALLOTMENT 70 ^ 4199 4199 5598 8398 16796 41989 83979 ALLOTMENT 71 ^ 26709 26709 35612 53419 106838 267094 534188 ALLOTMENT 72 ^ 52743 52743 70322 105485 210970 527426 1054852 ALLOTMENT 73 ^ 857 857 1143 1715 3430 8574 17149 ALLOTMENT 74 ^ 398 398 531 796 1592 3980 7959 ALLOTMENT 75 ^ 615 615 820 1230 2460 6150 12301 ALLOTMENT 76 ^ 76 76 101 151 303 757 1514 ALLOTMENT 77 ^ 28 28 37 56 112 281 562 ALLOTMENT 78 ^ 909 909 1212 1818 3636 9090 18180 ALLOTMENT 79 ^ 898 898 1197 1796 3592 8980 17961 ALLOTMENT 80 ^ 2433 2433 3244 4867 9733 24333 48666 ALLOTMENT 81 ^ 310 310 413 620 1240 3101 6202 ALLOTMENT 82 ^ 1352 1352 1802 2704 5407 13518 27035 ALLOTMENT 83 ^ 853 853 1138 1707 3414 8535 17070 ALLOTMENT 84 ^ 1475 1475 1966 2949 5899 14747 29494
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 53 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 ALLOTMENT 85 ^ 2022 2022 2696 4044 8087 20219 40437 ALLOTMENT 86 ^ 2416 2416 3221 4832 9665 24161 48323 ALLOTMENT 87 ^ 3180 3180 4240 6360 12721 31801 63603 ALLOTMENT 88 ^ 11204 11204 14939 22409 44818 112045 224090 ALLOTMENT 89 ^ 16281 16281 21708 32563 65126 162814 325629 ALLOTMENT 90 ^ 11331 11331 15108 22663 45326 113314 226629 ALLOTMENT 91 ^ 51997 51997 69327 103993 207987 519967 1039933 ALLOTMENT 92 ^ 7240 7240 9653 14479 28958 72396 144792 ALLOTMENT 93 ^ 4215 4215 5620 8431 16862 42155 84309 ALLOTMENT 94 ^ 354 354 472 708 1417 3542 7083 ALLOTMENT 95 ^ 663 663 885 1327 2654 6635 13269 ALLOTMENT 96 ^ 478 478 637 955 1910 4776 9551 ALLOTMENT 97 ^ 460 460 614 921 1842 4604 9208 ALLOTMENT 98 ^ 53763 53763 71683 107527 215054 537634 1075269 ALTA VISTA IND 15022 14 14 19 29 57 143 286 ANTELOPE 05899 340 340 454 681 1362 3405 6809 ANTELOPE CREEK 05748 809 809 1079 1618 3236 8091 16182 ANTERO RES 05288 105 105 139 209 418 1046 2091 ANTERO RESERVOIR-A 05904 1157 1157 1543 2314 4628 11570 23140 ANTERO RESERVOIR-B 05904 4348 4348 5797 8696 17392 43480 86960 ANTERO RESERVOIR-C 05904 5932 5932 7909 11864 23729 59322 118644 ANTERO RESERVOIR-D 05904 1191 1191 1588 2382 4764 11910 23820 APACHE CITY 05909 1312 1312 1749 2623 5246 13115 26231 APACHE RIDGE 05210 126 126 169 253 506 1264 2528 APISHAPA BRIDGE-A 05811 3563 3563 4751 7126 14252 35631 71262
54 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 APISHAPA BRIDGE-B 05811 28736 28736 38313 57471 114943 287356 574713 ASHER GULCH 05134 3 3 4 5 11 27 55 AVONDALE 02804 2433090 2433090 3244039 4866180 9732360 24330900 48661800 BADITO W-A 05108 737 737 982 1473 2946 7365 14731 BADITO W-B 05108 384 384 513 769 1538 3845 7690 BADITO-A 05177 240 240 320 480 960 2399 4799 BADITO-B 05177 8 8 11 16 33 82 163 BALD KHOBS-A ^ 1530 1530 2039 3059 6119 15297 30593 BALD KHOBS-B ^ 1199 1199 1598 2398 4795 11988 23976 BALD KHOBS-C ^ 1001 1001 1335 2003 4005 10013 20026 BALFOUR N 15012 936 936 1248 1872 3744 9361 18721 BARNARD CR 05099 8 8 11 17 34 85 169 BARNARD CR E 05100 96 96 128 191 383 957 1913 BEAR CANYON 05873 78 78 104 156 312 780 1560 BEAR CK ALLOTMENT-A 05835 1319 1319 1759 2638 5276 13191 26381 BEAR CK ALLOTMENT-B 05835 441 441 588 882 1764 4411 8822 BEAR CK ALLOTMENT-C 05822 208 208 278 416 833 2082 4163 BEAR PEAK 05053 4 4 5 8 16 40 80 BECKWITH 05094 132 132 176 265 529 1323 2646 BIG BEAR 05142 68 68 90 136 271 678 1357 BIG BULL MTN 05111 12 12 16 24 48 121 241 BLACK CLOUD 05837 1029 1029 1372 2058 4117 10291 20583 BLACK MTN 05843 2 2 3 4 9 22 44 BLUE RIDGE 05137 3 3 3 5 10 25 50 BOND 05095 2 2 3 5 10 24 48
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 55 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 BRADFORD CANAL S 05733 2 2 3 5 10 24 48 BRADFORD CANAL-A 05709 2911 2911 3881 5822 11644 29109 58218 BRADFORD CANAL-B 05709 8 8 10 16 31 78 157 BRADFORD CANAL-C 05709 605 605 807 1210 2420 6051 12101 BRADFORD CANAL-D 05709 1426 1426 1901 2851 5703 14257 28514 BRADFORD MESA WEST 05799 6202 6202 8269 12403 24807 62017 124033 BRADFORD MESA-A 05842 9311 9311 12414 18622 37244 93110 186220 BRADFORD MESA-B 05842 6734 6734 8978 13468 26936 67340 134680 BRADFORD MESA-C 05842 6880 6880 9173 13760 27520 68799 137599 BRADFORD MESA-D 05842 1019 1019 1358 2037 4075 10187 20375 BRADFORD RESERVOIR W-A 15000 2775 2775 3699 5549 11098 27746 55492 BRADFORD RESERVOIR W-B 15000 1213 1213 1618 2426 4853 12132 24265 BRADFORD RESERVOIR W-C 15000 1920 1920 2560 3839 7679 19197 38394 BRADFORD RESERVOIR W-D 15000 5977 5977 7970 11955 23909 59773 119546 BRADFORD RESERVOIR W-E 15000 2494 2494 3326 4989 9977 24943 49885 BRADFORD RESERVOIR-A 05867 2803 2803 3737 5606 11212 28030 56060 BRADFORD RESERVOIR-B 05867 2582 2582 3443 5165 10329 25823 51646 BREECE CR 05864 369 369 493 739 1478 3694 7389 BROWN PARK-B 05054 1563 1563 2083 3125 6250 15626 31251 BROWN PARK-C 05054 727 727 970 1454 2909 7272 14544 BROWN PARK-D 05054 245 245 326 489 978 2446 4892 BROWNS CANYON SCHOOL 05819 1265 1265 1687 2530 5061 12652 25305 BROWNS CR 05892 131 131 174 261 523 1307 2614 BUFFALO CR 05920 704 704 938 1407 2815 7036 14073 BUFFALO GULCH N 05793 2518 2518 3358 5036 10073 25182 50364
56 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 BUFFALO GULCH S 05307 618 618 824 1235 2471 6177 12353 BUFFALO PEAKS 05929 6912 6912 9216 13824 27649 69122 138245 BULL MTN IND 05236 128 128 170 255 510 1275 2551 BULL DOMINGO-A 05074 794 794 1058 1588 3175 7938 15877 BULL DOMINGO-B 05074 217 217 289 434 868 2171 4342 BULL DOMINGO-C 05074 213 213 283 425 850 2126 4251 BULL HILL 05048 23 23 30 45 91 227 454 BUMBACK SPRING 05081 1066 1066 1421 2132 4264 10659 21318 BURLINGAME DITCH 05831 71 71 94 141 283 707 1413 BURNO MTN 05064 71 71 94 142 283 709 1417 BURRO CANYON-A ^ 2721 2721 3628 5442 10884 27210 54419 BURRO CANYON-B ^ 2581 2581 3441 5162 10324 25810 51620 BURRO CANYON-C ^ 4363 4363 5817 8726 17452 43631 87262 CANON RIDGE 03589 39 39 52 78 157 392 785 CEDAR CREST 05815 234 234 312 469 937 2343 4686 CEDAR SPRINGS MTN. 05147 8 8 11 17 33 83 166 CEMETARY 05942 805 805 1073 1610 3221 8051 16103 CHAMA WEST-A 05895 55 55 74 111 222 555 1109 CHAMA WEST-B 05895 82 82 109 164 327 818 1635 CHITWOOD GULCH 05786 16 16 21 31 63 157 314 CLEAR CREEK-A 22037 49 49 65 98 196 490 980 CLEVELAND MTN 05883 7 7 10 14 29 72 144 COBB CR 05065 55 55 74 111 221 554 1107 COMO 05799 167 167 223 335 669 1673 3346 COMO PARK 05805 388 388 517 776 1552 3881 7762
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 57 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 COMO PARK E 05801 12 12 16 24 48 121 242 COOPER MTN 05206 2 2 3 5 9 24 47 COTTON GAP-A ^ 44 44 58 87 175 437 874 COTTON GAP-B ^ 50 50 67 101 201 503 1006 COTTONSACK-B 03894 2 2 2 3 6 16 32 COTTONSACK-C 03894 23 23 30 46 91 229 457 COTTONWOOD CR 05096 2 2 3 4 9 22 45 COTTONWOOD RIDGE 05205 4 4 6 9 18 45 90 CROOKED CR-A 05756 1335 1335 1780 2669 5339 13347 26693 CROSS CREEK 05115 950 950 1267 1900 3800 9500 19000 CRYSTAL FALLS 05818 8 8 11 16 33 82 164 CUCHARAS CANYON NE 02663 44 44 59 89 177 443 887 CUCHARAS CANYON S 00024 25 25 33 50 99 249 497 CUCHARAS WEST-A 05877 69 69 91 137 274 686 1371 CUCHARAS WEST-B 05877 190 190 254 381 762 1904 3808 CUCHARAS WEST-C 05877 72 72 96 144 288 721 1442 CURRENT CR EAST 05035 4 4 5 8 15 38 76 DAISY CANYON 05905 51 51 68 102 203 508 1017 DEADMULE GULCH 05085 13 13 17 25 50 126 251 DEER HAVEN RANCH 05233 3 3 4 5 11 27 53 DEL AGUA 05708 90 90 120 180 360 901 1801 DELILAH PEAK-A 05037 54 54 72 108 216 540 1080 DELILAH PEAK-B 05037 10 10 13 19 38 96 192 DERRY DITCH-B 05747 211 211 281 422 843 2108 4217 DERRY DITCH-C 05747 74 74 99 149 297 743 1486
58 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 DERRY DITCH-D 05747 140 140 186 279 559 1397 2794 DEVILS GULCH S-A 05846 243 243 324 486 973 2432 4864 DEVILS GULCH S-B 05846 116 116 155 232 464 1159 2318 DEWEESE 15041 798 798 1065 1597 3194 7985 15969 DIAMOND A EAST-NORTH 05704 25974 25974 34631 51948 103896 259740 519481 DIAMOND A EAST-SOUTH 15556 90334 90334 120443 180668 361337 903342 1806685 DIAMOND A NORTH 05850 7686 7686 10248 15373 30746 76864 153728 DICKS CR 05157 32 32 43 64 128 321 642 DIKE 05886 5 5 6 9 19 47 95 DRIVEWAY 05782 175 175 233 349 698 1745 3490 DRY CREEK CANYON-A ^ 1404 1404 1872 2808 5616 14041 28081 DRY GULCH COMMON-A 05201 303 303 404 606 1212 3031 6061 DRY GULCH COMMON-B 05201 1289 1289 1719 2578 5156 12890 25780 DRY GULCH COMMON-C 05201 61 61 82 122 245 612 1224 DRY LAKE 05230 12 12 16 25 49 123 247 DUTCH FLAT 05893 1140 1140 1520 2281 4561 11403 22805 DUTCH HENRY 05303 6 6 8 12 24 59 118 E BOX CANYON 05144 29 29 38 58 115 288 575 E BURLINGAME DITCH 02711 547 547 729 1094 2188 5470 10940 E CHAMA 05936 30 30 40 59 119 296 593 E ELDRED-B 05191 10 10 13 20 40 100 199 E FORK MILSAP CR 05209 2 2 2 4 7 18 36 E GARDEN PARK 05071 30 30 41 61 122 304 608 E PALO DURO 05907 324 324 432 648 1295 3238 6476 EAST BALD HILL 03773 497 497 663 994 1989 4972 9945
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 59 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 EAST PREACHER GULCH 05185 11 11 15 23 46 114 229 EIGHTMILE HILLS 15027 21 21 28 42 84 211 422 ELDRED 05079 6 6 8 12 24 61 122 ELEVENMILE CANYON 05141 16 16 21 32 64 159 319 FARISITA 05986 155 155 207 311 621 1553 3107 FEAR CANYON-A 05168 489 489 652 978 1956 4889 9779 FEAR CANYON-B 05168 8 8 11 17 33 83 166 FELCH CR 05090 3 3 4 7 13 33 65 FERN CR 15050 5 5 7 11 21 54 107 FISHERMENS BRIDGE 05906 807 807 1076 1613 3227 8067 16134 FOURMILE CR 05910 166 166 222 333 665 1663 3325 FOURMILE CR SOUTH 03596 396 396 528 792 1584 3960 7921 FOURMILE RANCH-A 05794 1156 1156 1541 2311 4622 11555 23110 FOURMILE RANCH-B 05794 592 592 790 1184 2369 5922 11844 FRESH WATER CR 05056 14 14 19 28 57 142 284 FRIJOLE CR 05849 460 460 614 921 1841 4603 9205 GARDENER TABLE 05220 13 13 17 25 51 127 254 GARDNER ROAD 05820 712 712 950 1425 2850 7125 14250 GARO-A 05703 453 453 604 906 1812 4531 9061 GARO-B 05703 256 256 341 511 1023 2557 5113 GILLETT IND 05225 43 43 57 85 170 425 851 GOTERA CANYON-A 05824 497 497 663 995 1989 4973 9947 GOTERA CANYON-B 05824 78 78 104 156 312 779 1558 GOULD RESERVOIR 05011 11 11 14 21 43 106 213 GRANEROS FLATS-A 05880 1617 1617 2157 3235 6470 16175 32349
60 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 GRANEROS FLATS-B 05880 11693 11693 15591 23386 46773 116932 233863 GRAVEL PIT 05092 11 11 15 22 44 110 220 GREEN MTN GULCH 05158 3 3 5 7 14 35 69 GREEN MTN N-A 05116 8 8 10 15 30 76 152 GREEN MTN N-B 05116 54 54 71 107 214 536 1071 GREENWOOD 05772 7 7 9 13 26 66 132 HAMILTON CANYON-A 05830 1556 1556 2074 3111 6223 15557 31113 HAMILTON CANYON-B 05830 2296 2296 3061 4592 9184 22960 45921 HAMMOND PEAK 05240 448 448 597 896 1791 4478 8956 HARDESTY DRAW-A 05916 1622 1622 2162 3244 6487 16219 32437 HARDESTY DRAW-B 05916 2838 2838 3784 5677 11353 28383 56765 HARDESTY DRAW-C 05916 6759 6759 9012 13518 27036 67589 135178 HARDESTY DRAW-D 05916 15267 15267 20356 30534 61069 152672 305344 HARDESTY DRAW-E 05916 8048 8048 10731 16097 32194 80484 160968 HARDESTY DRAW-F 05916 26596 26596 35460 53191 106383 265957 531915 HARLIN DITCH 05789 224 224 298 448 895 2238 4475 HARLIN DITCH SOUTH 03954 1642 1642 2190 3285 6569 16424 32847 HAYDEN BUTTE 05749 1442 1442 1922 2884 5768 14419 28838 HAYDEN RANCH 03194 79 79 106 159 318 794 1589 HECK GULCH-A 05214 12 12 16 25 49 123 245 HECK GULCH-B 05214 28 28 37 56 111 279 557 HECLA JUNCTION W-A 05773 283 283 378 567 1134 2835 5669 HERRING CR 05152 16 16 21 31 62 156 311 HEZRON GULCH-A 05825 507 507 676 1014 2028 5070 10139 HEZRON GULCH-B 05825 1351 1351 1802 2703 5405 13513 27026
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 61 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 HIGH CR ALLOTMENT-A 05739 382 382 509 764 1527 3818 7636 HIGH CR ALLOTMENT-B 05739 503 503 670 1005 2010 5026 10052 HORSE CREEK 05869 55249 55249 73663 110497 220994 552486 1104972 HOT SPRINGS 05198 31 31 41 62 123 309 617 HOWARD CR 15008 3 3 4 7 13 33 67 IDEAL CANYON 05752 378 378 504 756 1512 3779 7558 IDEAL CANYON W 05717 666 666 889 1333 2666 6664 13328 INDIAN GULCH COM 05063 13 13 17 26 51 128 256 IOWA GULCH-A 05863 7 7 9 13 27 67 134 IOWA GULCH-B 05863 2056 2056 2741 4112 8224 20560 41121 IOWA GULCH-C 05863 255 255 339 509 1018 2545 5091 IOWA GULCH-D 05863 1256 1256 1674 2512 5023 12558 25116 IOWA GULCH-E 05863 85 85 114 171 342 854 1708 IRELAND CORRALS 00018 26 26 35 53 105 263 526 IRON HILL 05921 373 373 497 746 1492 3730 7461 IRON MTN S-A 05923 2 2 3 4 9 22 43 IRON MTN S-B 05923 2 2 2 4 7 18 36 IRON MTN-A 05148 92 92 123 185 370 924 1849 IRON MTN-B 05148 510 510 680 1020 2040 5100 10200 IRON MTN-C 05148 1204 1204 1606 2409 4818 12045 24089 IRON MTN-D 05148 66 66 88 132 263 658 1315 IRON MTN-E 05148 553 553 737 1105 2210 5526 11052 IRON MTN-F 05148 574 574 765 1148 2296 5739 11478 IRON MTN-G 05148 1023 1023 1364 2046 4092 10230 20460 IRON MTN-H 05148 7 7 9 14 27 68 135
62 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 JESUS CANYON ^ 1755 1755 2339 3509 7018 17546 35092 JUNKINS PARK 05884 26 26 34 51 102 256 512 KAUFMAN RIDGE 05304 10 10 13 20 39 98 196 KERR GULCH COM 05006 1 1 1 2 4 9 18 LAJUNTA NORTH-A 05527 2368 2368 3158 4737 9474 23684 47368 LAJUNTA NORTH-B 05527 1521 1521 2028 3042 6084 15210 30419 LAKE CREEK-A 15029 456 456 607 911 1822 4556 9112 LAKE CREEK-B 15029 554 554 738 1107 2215 5537 11074 LAKE CREEK-C 15029 528 528 703 1055 2110 5275 10550 LAPIN CR-A 05901 634 634 846 1268 2537 6342 12684 LAPIN CR-B 05901 357 357 476 714 1429 3572 7145 LAPIN CR-C 05901 1082 1082 1443 2164 4329 10822 21644 LINK DITCH 05707 128 128 171 257 514 1284 2568 LITTLE COCHETOPA 05780 67 67 90 135 269 674 1347 LITTLE PORCUPINE-A 05937 185 185 246 369 739 1847 3695 LITTLE PORCUPINE-B 05937 510 510 680 1019 2039 5097 10193 LITTLE PORCUPINE-C 05937 1443 1443 1924 2886 5772 14431 28862 LITTLE PORCUPINE-D 05937 825 825 1100 1650 3299 8249 16497 LITTLE SHEEP-A 05769 128 128 171 256 512 1280 2559 LITTLE TURKEY CREEK 05760 6 6 8 11 23 57 114 LIVERMORE 26016 2091 2091 2788 4182 8365 20912 41825 LOGAN HILL-A 05795 7062 7062 9416 14124 28248 70621 141242 LOGAN HILL-B 05795 659 659 878 1318 2635 6589 13177 LONG CANYON 05912 237 237 316 474 949 2372 4744 LONG GULCH PASTURE 05222 26 26 34 51 102 255 510
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 63 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 LOUIS GULCH-A 03228 11 11 15 22 44 111 221 LOUIS GULCH-B 03228 82 82 109 164 328 821 1642 LOWER MACK GULCH 05196 6 6 8 12 24 60 120 LOWER SHAWS PARK-A 05212 136 136 181 272 544 1360 2721 LOWER SHAWS PARK-B 05212 7 7 9 14 27 68 135 LUIS CANYON ^ 53 53 70 105 210 525 1051 LYONS 16002 224 224 298 447 894 2236 4471 MADDEN CANYON 05876 38 38 50 76 151 378 756 MAES CR 05832 104 104 138 207 415 1037 2074 MALICE DITCH 05792 289 289 385 577 1154 2885 5770 MANZANARES CR 05894 4 4 6 8 17 42 83 MARTIN RIDGE 05934 1 1 2 2 5 12 23 MAURICIO-A 05732 37 37 50 75 150 374 749 MAURICIO-B 05732 31 31 41 61 123 307 615 MAURICIO-C 05732 912 912 1216 1824 3647 9119 18237 MAY CR 05874 6 6 8 11 23 57 114 MEADOW GULCH 05221 6 6 8 11 23 57 115 METHODIST MTN 05898 11 11 15 23 45 113 226 MEXICAN RIDGE SOUTH 03980 1210 1210 1613 2420 4840 12101 24201 MICANITE 05164 3 3 4 6 12 29 59 MICHIGAN CAMPGROUND-A 05903 330 330 440 660 1320 3300 6600 MICHIGAN CAMPGROUND-B 05903 524 524 698 1047 2095 5237 10474 MICHIGAN CAMPGROUND-C 05903 3231 3231 4308 6462 12924 32310 64619 MICHIGAN CAMPGROUND-D 05903 1038 1038 1384 2076 4152 10381 20762
64 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 MIDDLE CR N-A 05930 6 6 8 11 23 57 114 MIDDLE CR N-B 05930 14 14 18 27 55 137 274 MIDDLE CR S-A 05932 28 28 38 56 113 282 564 MIDDLE CR S-B 05932 38 38 50 75 151 377 755 MIDDLE CR S-C 05932 84 84 111 167 334 836 1671 MIDDLE CR S-D 05932 26 26 34 51 102 256 511 MIDDLE CR S-E 05932 16 16 21 31 62 155 311 MIDDLE CR S-F 05932 23 23 30 45 91 227 455 MIDDLE CR S-G 05932 29 29 38 58 115 288 576 MIDDLE TALLAHASSEE 05862 4 4 6 9 17 44 87 MIKESELL GULCH 05197 131 131 175 263 526 1314 2628 MILL CR COM 05086 9 9 13 19 38 94 188 MILL GULCH S 05070 18 18 24 36 72 179 359 MILL GULCH W 15052 5 5 6 10 19 48 95 MILLER PLACE 05211 10 10 14 21 42 104 208 MINERAL CR-A 05767 18 18 24 35 71 177 355 MINERAL CR-B 05767 22 22 29 43 86 215 430 MINERAL CR-C 05767 93 93 125 187 374 934 1869 MINERS GULCH-A 05200 4 4 5 8 15 38 77 MINERS GULCH-B 05200 6 6 9 13 26 64 128 MONUMENT CR-A 05154 370 370 494 741 1481 3703 7406 MONUMENT CR-B 05154 59 59 78 117 234 585 1171 MONUMENT CR-C 05154 45 45 59 89 178 446 892 MONUMENT CR-D 05154 643 643 857 1285 2571 6426 12853
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 65 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 MOSCA-A 03893 84 84 112 169 337 843 1687 MOSCA-B 03893 39 39 53 79 158 394 788 MOSS GULCH 05741 1090 1090 1454 2181 4362 10904 21808 MT HERRING 05889 38 38 51 76 152 379 758 MT SHAVANO-A 05918 1501 1501 2002 3003 6006 15014 30029 MT SHAVANO-B 05918 95 95 126 189 378 946 1892 MT SHAVANO-C 05918 7 7 9 14 28 70 140 MT TYNDALL 05888 15 15 20 30 61 152 305 MUD SPRINGS 05847 1344 1344 1792 2688 5376 13440 26879 MUDDY CREEK 05784 3 3 4 6 13 32 64 MULLIGAN LAKES-A 05720 1463 1463 1951 2926 5852 14630 29260 MULLIGAN LAKES-B 05720 2139 2139 2852 4278 8555 21388 42776 MULLIGAN LAKES-C 05720 901 901 1201 1801 3603 9007 18015 MULLIGAN-A 03896 130 130 173 259 518 1296 2592 MULLIGAN-B 03896 369 369 492 738 1475 3688 7376 MULLIGAN-C 03896 690 690 919 1379 2758 6896 13791 MULLIGAN-D 03896 7 7 9 14 28 69 139 MULLOCK GULCH 15017 54 54 72 108 216 540 1081 N BADITO-A 05858 296 296 395 592 1185 2962 5923 N BADITO-B 05858 11 11 15 23 46 115 230 N RATTLESNAKE BUTTE 05829 292 292 389 583 1166 2916 5831 N RED HILL 05217 36 36 48 71 143 357 714 N. TALLAHASSEE CREEK 05089 5 5 7 10 21 52 104 NIPPLE MTN IND 05237 7 7 9 14 28 71 142
66 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 NORTH 40 03684 1246 1246 1662 2493 4986 12464 24928 NORTH BADGER CREEK 00002 229 229 306 459 918 2295 4590 NORTH HONDO-A 03705 280 280 374 560 1121 2802 5605 NORTH HONDO-B 03705 27 27 36 54 108 270 541 NORTH HONDO-C 03705 1146 1146 1528 2292 4584 11460 22920 NORTH HONDO-D 03705 5 5 7 10 20 49 99 NORTH LAKE ^ 43 43 57 86 172 430 859 NORTH LUDLOW ^ 139 139 186 279 558 1394 2789 NORTH WAUGH 15039 15 15 20 30 59 148 296 OAK CR-A 15028 39 39 52 78 156 391 782 OAK CR-B 15028 107 107 142 213 426 1065 2130 OIL CR N-C 05103 102 102 136 204 408 1019 2038 OIL WELL FLATS 05083 2 2 2 3 6 16 32 ONE CR/CAT GULCH-B 05061 27 27 36 54 107 268 535 OWENS CREEK-A 15040 314 314 419 628 1256 3140 6279 OWENS CREEK-D 15040 1918 1918 2558 3837 7673 19183 38367 PALMER GULCH 05195 174 174 232 348 696 1740 3480 PARK DITCH-B 05764 1777 1777 2369 3554 7107 17768 35537 PARK DITCH-C 05764 1622 1622 2162 3243 6487 16217 32434 PARK DITCH-D 05764 1555 1555 2073 3110 6219 15548 31095 PARK GULCH E-A 05828 4207 4207 5609 8414 16828 42070 84141 PARK GULCH E-B 05828 720 720 959 1439 2878 7196 14392 PARK GULCH-G 05800 3613 3613 4817 7226 14451 36128 72256 PARK GULCH-H 05800 139 139 186 279 558 1394 2788
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 67 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 PARK GULCH-I 05800 6049 6049 8065 12097 24194 60486 120972 PARK GULCH-J 05800 1516 1516 2021 3032 6063 15158 30317 PARK GULCH-K 05800 353 353 471 706 1413 3532 7065 PARK MTN 05163 3 3 4 6 12 29 58 PASS CR-A 05941 217 217 289 433 866 2165 4331 PASS CR-B 05941 4 4 6 9 17 44 87 PATTERSON HOLLOW-A 05919 12034 12034 16045 24067 48135 120337 240674 PATTERSON HOLLOW-B 05919 30395 30395 40526 60790 121581 303951 607903 PHANTOM CANYON 05072 2 2 2 4 7 18 36 PHELPS CANYON 05927 174 174 232 348 696 1739 3479 PICKETWIRE 05791 4934 4934 6578 9867 19734 49335 98671 PINE GULCH-A 05068 1608 1608 2145 3217 6434 16084 32169 PINE GULCH-B 05068 470 470 627 940 1881 4702 9404 PINE GULCH-C 05068 49 49 65 97 194 485 970 PINE GULCH-D 05068 22 22 30 45 89 223 447 PLAYA LAKES 05939 85 85 113 169 338 846 1692 PONCHA PARK 15038 28 28 37 56 112 279 558 POWELL ARROYO-A 05755 727 727 969 1454 2908 7270 14540 POWELL ARROYO-B 05755 563 563 751 1126 2252 5630 11261 POWELL ARROYO-C 05755 46 46 61 92 183 458 916 POWELL ARROYO-D 05755 5484 5484 7311 10967 21935 54837 109674 POWELL ARROYO-E 05755 218 218 290 436 871 2178 4356 POWELL ARROYO-F 05755 379 379 505 757 1514 3786 7572 PRUDEN CREEK 05169 343 343 457 686 1371 3428 6857 QUARTZ VALLEY 26029 20 20 27 41 81 203 407
68 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 RED GULCH 05188 2 2 3 4 8 19 39 RED HILL PASS-C 05700 306 306 407 611 1222 3056 6112 RED TOP ROAD 05806 330 330 440 660 1320 3301 6602 RED TOP-A 05702 13699 13699 18264 27397 54795 136986 273973 RED TOP-B 05702 2526 2526 3368 5053 10105 25263 50527 RED TOP-C 05702 291 291 388 583 1165 2914 5827 RED TOP-D 05702 516 516 689 1033 2066 5165 10329 RED TOP-E 05702 805 805 1073 1610 3220 8049 16098 RED TOP-F 05702 212 212 282 423 847 2116 4233 RED WING 05746 45 45 60 89 179 446 893 REDWING 2 03897 33 33 44 66 132 329 659 REED GULCH ^ 444 444 591 887 1774 4435 8871 REINKE RIDGE 05194 19 19 25 37 74 186 372 REVEILLE CANYON-A 05725 79 79 105 157 314 785 1571 REVEILLE CANYON-B 05725 182 182 242 363 726 1816 3632 REVEILLE CANYON-C 05725 222 222 296 445 889 2223 4447 REVEILLE CANYON-D 05725 62 62 83 124 248 621 1241 REVEILLE CANYON-E 05725 510 510 680 1020 2041 5102 10205 REVEILLE CANYON-F 05725 1305 1305 1741 2611 5222 13054 26108 REVEILLE CANYON-G 05725 298 298 398 597 1193 2983 5966 RITO OSO 05776 7 7 9 14 27 69 137 ROCK CR 05726 6 6 8 12 24 60 121 ROCK HOUSE 05076 4 4 5 7 14 35 70
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 69 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 ROSITA-A 05734 1080 1080 1440 2160 4319 10798 21596 ROSITA-B 05734 230 230 307 460 920 2299 4598 ROSITA-D 05734 12 12 17 25 50 124 249 RUBY GULCH 15019 1383 1383 1844 2767 5533 13833 27666 RULE CR 05836 8637 8637 11515 17273 34546 86366 172732 RYE SLOUGH N 05155 142 142 189 284 567 1418 2836 RYE SLOUGH S 05087 88 88 117 175 351 877 1755 S ABEYTA 05723 5 5 7 11 21 53 107 S CHAMA 05933 13 13 18 26 53 132 264 S GARDEN PARK 05066 62 62 82 124 247 619 1237 S GARDNER 05775 32 32 42 64 127 318 636 S JACK HALL 05075 13 13 17 26 52 131 261 S MARTIN 05727 25 25 34 51 101 253 506 S RED HILL 05216 19 19 26 39 77 193 385 S SPRING BRANCH-A 05803 24 24 33 49 98 244 488 SALT CANYON 05226 281 281 375 563 1126 2814 5628 SALT WORKS PASTURE 05180 16 16 22 32 65 162 325 SAN ISIDRO 05860 529 529 705 1057 2115 5287 10574 SAND ARROYO 05833 446 446 595 892 1784 4460 8920 SANFORD HILLS-A 05885 1123 1123 1497 2245 4490 11226 22451 SANFORD HILLS-B 05885 596 596 795 1193 2385 5964 11927 SANFORD HILLS-C 05885 599 599 798 1198 2395 5988 11976 SANFORD HILLS-D 05885 546 546 728 1092 2185 5461 10923 SANFORD HILLS-E 05885 232 232 310 464 929 2322 4645
70 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 SANTA CLARA CR-A 05943 4428 4428 5904 8856 17713 44281 88563 SANTA CLARA CR-B 05943 4191 4191 5587 8381 16763 41906 83813 SANTA MARIA-A 05744 1808 1808 2411 3616 7233 18082 36164 SANTA MARIA-B 05744 321 321 428 642 1284 3211 6422 SANTANA CANYON 05821 231 231 308 462 924 2311 4621 SAUNDERS ARROYO-A 05817 2395 2395 3193 4790 9580 23950 47900 SAUNDERS ARROYO-B 05817 2748 2748 3663 5495 10991 27477 54953 SCATTERED PARCELS-A ^ 19 19 25 37 74 186 371 SCHOOLFIELD-A 05719 595 595 794 1191 2381 5953 11907 SCHOOLFIELD-B 05719 160 160 214 321 642 1605 3209 SCHOOLHOUSE GULCH 05219 13 13 17 26 52 129 258 SCOUT CAMP-A 05730 69 69 92 138 276 691 1381 SCOUT CAMP-B 05730 59 59 78 118 235 588 1175 SEVEN L BUTTE 05766 426 426 569 853 1706 4265 8530 SHARPSDALE 05940 11 11 15 23 46 114 228 SHAWS PARK 05138 70 70 93 139 279 697 1393 SHEEP CR 05705 230 230 306 460 919 2298 4596 SIEBERT 05128 7 7 9 13 26 66 131 SILOAM ROAD-A 05774 1658 1658 2211 3317 6633 16583 33167 SILOAM ROAD-B 05774 325 325 433 649 1298 3246 6492 SILVER CLIFF 05946 341 341 454 681 1362 3405 6810 SILVERHEEL 05853 458 458 610 916 1831 4579 9157 SIX MILE PARK 05223 3 3 4 6 12 29 58 SIXMILE 15011 11 11 15 22 44 109 218 SOAPY HILL 05162 5 5 7 10 20 49 98
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 71 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 SODA CR-A 05848 147 147 197 295 590 1474 2949 SODA CR-B 05848 436 436 581 872 1743 4358 8715 SODA CR-C 05848 205 205 273 409 818 2046 4091 SODA CR-D 05848 359 359 478 717 1434 3585 7171 SODA MTN 15032 18 18 24 36 73 181 363 SOUTH HONDO-A 03821 680 680 906 1359 2718 6796 13592 SOUTH HONDO-B 03821 92 92 123 185 369 923 1845 SOUTH PALO DURO CK-A 00025 8 8 10 15 30 75 150 SOUTH PALO DURO CK-B 00025 15 15 20 30 61 151 303 SOUTH PALO DURO CK-C 00025 5 5 6 9 19 47 93 SOUTH TEXAS CREEK 03509 4 4 5 8 15 38 77 ST CHARLES 05706 41 41 55 82 165 412 824 ST JUDE-A 05897 417 417 556 834 1667 4168 8337 ST JUDE-B 05897 121 121 161 242 484 1210 2421 STEEL GULCH 05913 108 108 144 216 433 1082 2165 STOUT CR 05177 211 211 282 423 846 2114 4228 SUGARLOAF MTN-A 05751 1122 1122 1496 2244 4489 11222 22443 TALLAHASSEE ROAD 05190 10 10 13 20 40 100 199 TARYALL CR 05754 1580 1580 2107 3161 6322 15804 31609 TEEPLE 05737 2118 2118 2823 4235 8470 21176 42352 THE CORONA ^ 181 181 242 363 726 1814 3629 THOMPSON ARROYO 05823 134 134 179 268 536 1341 2681 THREEMILE CR-A 05787 476 476 634 951 1903 4757 9513 THREEMILE CR-B 05787 8 8 11 17 34 84 168
72 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 TINGLEY CANYON-A 05738 2120 2120 2826 4239 8478 21195 42390 TINGLEY CANYON-B 05738 376 376 501 751 1502 3756 7512 TINGLEY CANYON-C 05738 134 134 178 267 534 1335 2671 TINGLEY CANYON-D 05738 61 61 82 123 246 614 1229 TINGLEY CANYON-E 05738 26 26 34 51 103 257 514 TOMBSTONE HILL-A 05743 285 285 380 570 1141 2851 5703 TOMBSTONE HILL-B 05743 1226 1226 1634 2451 4903 12257 24515 TOMBSTONE HILL-C 05743 1711 1711 2281 3421 6843 17107 34213 TROUT CR 05735 62 62 83 124 249 622 1244 TROUT CR N-A 05088 360 360 480 721 1441 3604 7207 TROUT CR N-C 05088 1091 1091 1454 2182 4363 10908 21817 TROUT CR S 05080 438 438 584 876 1752 4381 8762 TRUJILLO CANYON 05716 10 10 14 20 41 102 204 TURKEY CR 05857 40 40 54 81 161 404 807 TURKEY RIDGE-A 05771 7457 7457 9943 14914 29828 74571 149142 TURKEY RIDGE-B 05771 19305 19305 25739 38610 77220 193050 386100 TURKEY RIDGE-C 05771 926 926 1235 1852 3704 9260 18520 TURKEY RIDGE-D 05711 3229 3229 4305 6458 12917 32292 64583 TWELVEMILE CLUB-A 05851 171 171 228 342 684 1709 3419 TWELVEMILE CLUB-B 05851 662 662 882 1323 2646 6615 13230 TWELVEMILE CLUB-C 05851 325 325 433 649 1298 3246 6491 TWELVEMILE CLUB-D 05851 90 90 120 180 359 898 1797 TWELVEMILE PARK 05151 33 33 44 66 132 331 661 TWELVEMILE WOODS 05123 8 8 11 17 34 84 168 TWIN MTN 05301 2 2 3 4 9 22 44
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 73 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 TWO BUTTES CR-B 05758 20833 20833 27777 41667 83333 208333 416667 U LONG GULCH 05156 3458 3458 4611 6916 13833 34581 69163 UNDERHILL-A 05047 150 150 199 299 599 1496 2993 UNDERHILL-B 05047 3 3 4 7 13 33 66 UNDERHILL-C 05047 6 6 8 12 24 59 118 UPPER BONEYARD 05084 1040 1040 1386 2079 4159 10397 20794 UTE LAKE 05753 1630 1630 2173 3260 6519 16298 32596 UTE LOG 05872 207 207 275 413 826 2065 4130 VANBROMER ARROYO 05788 184 184 245 367 735 1837 3673 VICTOR PASS 05112 53 53 71 107 213 534 1067 VIGIL CANYON-A 05710 1819 1819 2425 3637 7275 18186 36373 VIGIL CANYON-B 05710 248 248 331 496 992 2481 4962 VVN ALLOTMENT 05106 192 192 256 384 767 1918 3837 W BOX CANYON 05179 2 2 2 4 7 18 36 W CORDOVA 05911 1667 1667 2222 3333 6667 16667 33334 W FAIRPLAY 05757 525 525 700 1051 2101 5253 10506 W FOURMILE CR 15044 336 336 448 672 1344 3359 6719 W GUFFEY-A 05124 79 79 105 157 315 786 1573 W GUFFEY-B 05124 102 102 137 205 410 1025 2050 W PASS CR 05713 1 1 1 2 4 10 21 WAGON TONGUE 05059 613 613 817 1225 2451 6126 12253 WAGON TONGUE (OLD) ^ 23 23 30 46 91 228 456 WALL MTN 05181 14 14 18 28 55 138 275 WALSEN ARROYO 05724 827 827 1103 1655 3309 8273 16546
74 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 WALSENBURG N-A 05902 1108 1108 1477 2215 4430 11076 22152 WALSENBURG N-B 05902 818 818 1091 1637 3273 8183 16366 WALSENBURG N-C 05902 1062 1062 1416 2124 4249 10622 21244 WALSENBURG N-D 05902 807 807 1076 1614 3228 8069 16139 WARM SPRINGS 05729 90 90 120 179 359 897 1793 WAUGH MOUNTAIN 05199 14 14 19 28 56 140 280 WEBSTER GULCH 05234 6 6 7 11 22 56 112 WEST HIGH CK 02923 541 541 722 1083 2166 5415 10830 WEST PREACHER GULCH 05242 97 97 129 194 388 971 1941 WHITE HILLS-A 05763 1705 1705 2274 3411 6822 17054 34108 WHITE HILLS-B 05763 2245 2245 2993 4490 8979 22448 44895 WHITE HILLS-C 05763 3517 3517 4690 7035 14069 35173 70347 WHITE HILLS-D 05763 10688 10688 14250 21376 42752 106880 213760 WHITE HILLS-E 05763 632 632 842 1263 2527 6317 12635 WHITE HILLS-F 05763 90 90 121 181 362 904 1808 WHITEROCK-A 05816 3282 3282 4376 6564 13128 32821 65642 WHITEROCK-B 05816 2246 2246 2994 4491 8982 22456 44911 WHITEROCK-C 05816 3820 3820 5093 7639 15278 38195 76391 WILBUR 05159 2 2 3 5 10 24 49 WILMER GULCH-A 05878 91 91 121 182 364 909 1818 WILMER GULCH-B 05878 50 50 67 100 200 501 1001 WILSON CR 05300 1 1 2 3 6 15 30 WIXSON MTN-A 05855 1003 1003 1338 2007 4013 10033 20066 WIXSON MTN-B 05855 663 663 884 1326 2652 6630 13260 WIXSON MTN-C 05855 1059 1059 1412 2118 4235 10589 21177
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 75 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Years Allotment Years Between Potential Disease Events for a Given Transmission Rate* Allotment Name Between Number Contact 1:1 (1.0)1 1:1.33 (0.75)2 1:2 (0.50)3 1:4(0.25)4 1:10 (0.10)5 1:20(0.05)6 WIXSON MTN-D 05855 111 111 148 222 444 1111 2221 WIXSON MTN-E 05855 89 89 118 177 354 886 1771 WIXSON MTN-F 05855 1192 1192 1589 2384 4769 11922 23843 WIXSON MTN-G 05855 18 18 23 35 70 175 351 WOLF CANYON-A ^ 456 456 608 912 1825 4562 9123 WOLF CANYON-B ^ 1365 1365 1820 2730 5459 13649 27297 WOLF CANYON-C ^ 1770 1770 2360 3540 7081 17702 35405 WORLEY COUNTRY 05082 4 4 5 7 14 36 71 WRIGHT RESERVOIR 05131 5 5 6 9 18 46 92
*Estimated years between potential disease events for transmission rates ranging from 1:1 to 1:20 based upon the RoC model results for the Eastern Colorado RMP planning area for allotments that did not intersect bighorn sheep overall range. ^ This allotment does not have an allotment number because it is un-allotted. 1The estimated years between potential disease events for a given allotment if there is 1 disease transmission for every 1 bighorn sheep contact with a given allotment. 2The estimated years between potential disease events for a given allotment if there is 1 disease transmission for every 1.3333 bighorn sheep contacts with a given allotment, the estimated years between potential disease events are calculated for a given allotment. 3The estimated years between potential disease events for a given allotment if there is 1 disease transmission for every 2 bighorn sheep contacts with a given allotment, the estimated years between potential disease events are calculated for a given allotment. 4The estimated years between potential disease events for a given allotment if there is 1 disease transmission for every 4 bighorn sheep contacts with a given allotment, the estimated years between potential disease events are calculated for a given allotment. 5The estimated years between potential disease events for a given allotment if there is 1 disease transmission for every 10 bighorn sheep contacts with a given allotment, the estimated years between potential disease events are calculated for a given allotment. 6The estimated years between potential disease events for a given allotment if there is 1 disease transmission for every 20 bighorn sheep contacts with a given allotment.
76 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Figure 2.1. Bighorn Sheep Overall Range Used in the Risk of Contact Analysis
I~ _Coloc~o 0 +30 61) E===c:==::::JM- 1:3.0CO OOO
If L______-- .~----
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 77 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Figure 2.2. Foray Probability Raster Generated by the Foray Analysis for Apishapa GMU in the Risk of Contact Analysis /
I a Cl
a / D Ii" •
a . c!i 'iJ .. a
• Cl / / a / I 11,a I] / ------~------~
I/ I I ,,,., ) . , " / '\;I / j
t-l - RGFD />illot · nts Co lo:radlo D Apis' - pa GI u IBg r Sll~ p o~erall Ra g;~ r --- 0 +s 10 li PA tos I! 1:600.000 r ~ L-~------...... _ __
78 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Figure 2.3. CPW Rocky Mountain Bighorn Sheep Suitable Habitat Model
CPW Rocky Mountain Bi.ghom Sheep Hab iitat Mod ell Co lorado ~ - Suits.bl: -:tfrtat TraYc1~ ~ s 0 +30 60 D Non- - bit-311 PA 0 ECRIAP p - i a.rea 1"2.0O:u:.oo ECRilAP ., Pia ming wa .c tJ is made !7J , e s rea or a. ct Ml ga'lle as ro • e aoo:irac"J . rellal)I , • ~ ,ffi ~~ OJ m 'llple,.8'.le;s of ~ ct a1a r ctl.i: ~a, use oJ~ le J c,e w _ ct.!ler ct a1a .
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 79 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
Figure 2.4. Game Management Units Used in the Draft Eastern Colorado RMP Risk of Contact Analysis
I l 1----- 1 ..I ----..J _r--J.___ \ I I
Us i EC f' ROC -¥:is !I r 0 +JO 60 Ii MIiles
If 1:3.1»).COO I L-~------·
80 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
3. REFERENCES BLM (Bureau of Land Management). 2019. Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan. Ca on City, Colorado: Bureau of Land Management, Royal Gorge Field Office. Callan, R.J., T.D. Bunch, G.W. Workman, and R.E. Mock. 1991. Development of pneumonia in desert bighorn sheep after exposure to a flock of exotic domestic sheep. Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association 198:1052-1056. CPW (Colorado Parks and Wildlife). 2016. Rocky mountain bighorn sheep habitat model. Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Denver, Colorado. ———. 2017. Bighorn sheep overall range. Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Denver, Colorado. Foreyt, W.J. 1994. Effects of controlled contact exposure between healthy bighorn sheep and llamas, domestic goats, mountain goats, cattle, domestic sheep, or mouflon sheep. Northern Wild Sheep and Goat Council Proceedings 9:7-14. Foreyt, W.J., and D.A. Jessup. 1982. Fatal pneumonia of bighorn sheep following association with domestic sheep. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 18:163-168. George, J.L., D.J. Marting, P.M. Lukacs, and M.W. Miller. 2008. Epidemic pasteurellosis in a bighorn sheep population coinciding with the appearance of a domestic sheep. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 44:388-403. Gross, J.E., F.J. Singer, and M.E. Moses. 2000. Effects of disease, dispersal, and area on bighorn sheep restoration. Restoration Ecology 8:25-37. Miller, M.W., and L.W. Wolf. 2011. Pasteurellaceae from Colorado bighorn sheep herds. Journal of Wildlife Diseases 47(3):800-804. O’Brien, J.M., C.S. O’Brien, C. McCarthy, and T.E. Carpenter. 2014. Incorporating foray behavior into models estimating contact risk between bighorn sheep and areas occupied by domestic sheep. Wildlife Society Bulletin 38:321-331. Onderka, D.K., and W.D. Wishart. 1984. A major bighorn sheep die-off from pneumonia in southern Alberta. Northern Wild Sheep and Goat Council Proceedings 4:356-363. Singer, F.J., L. Spicer, and L.C. Zeigenfuss. 2001. Role of patch size, disease, and movement in rapid extinction of bighorn sheep. Conservation Biology 15:1347-1354. Singer, F.J., M.E. Moses, S. Bellew, and W. Sloan. 2000. Correlates to colonizations of new patches by translocated populations of bighorn sheep. Restoration Ecology 8:66-74. USFS (U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Forest Service). 2013. Risk of Contact Analysis between Bighorn and Domestic Sheep on the Fisher-Ivy/Goose Lake Domestic Sheep Grazing Allotment. Del Norte, CO: Rio Grande National Forest, Divide Ranger District.
A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan 81 Modeling the Probability of Bighorn Sheep Association with Domestic Sheep and Goats
———. 2015. Bighorn Sheep Risk of Contact Tool Users Guide v2. Internal document. March 2015. United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Region. WAFWA (Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies). 2012. Recommendations for Domestic Sheep and Goat Management in Wild Sheep Habitat. Wild Sheep Working Group, Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies.
82 A Supplement to the Draft Eastern Colorado Resource Management Plan
Bureau of Land Management Royal Gorge Field Office 3028 East Main Street Ca on City, CO 81212 (719) 269-8500 https://go.usa.gov/xQcZT