VoluCOMMENTARIES
West Asia Monitor Volume II, Issue XIX – March 2016
CONTENTS The Rising Spectre of ISIS in Saudi SPECIAL FOCUS Arabia Adil Rasheed The Rising Spectre of ISIS in Saudi Arabia Adil Rasheed, Researcher and Journalist Push and Pull: Saudi-Russian Jockeying in West Unable to put the lid on a Pandora’s Box full Asia of troubles that erupted in 2011, the Kingdom Mikhil Rialch, ORF of Saudi Arabia now sees its potential nemesis not so much in arch-enemy Iran, but COMMENTARIES in the so-called Islamic State or ISIS. How Oman is helping Obama shut down Guantanamo Bay The danger from this rival Salafi proto-state, Giorgio Cafiero Almonitor.net which seeks to overthrow the monarchy to Embedding a de-radicalization plan into the road expand its seed-Caliphate, has outgrown the map for peace in Syria kingdom’s ever expanding log of security Osman Bahadır Dincer & Mehmet Hecan threats, covering Iran-led Shiite insurrections, Foreign Policy News Muslim Brotherhood-backed conspiracies, STATEMENT retreating US support and a deflating economy in the wake of collapsing oil prices. Remarks by His Majesty King Abdullah II at the 52nd Munich Security Conference 12 February, 2016 In fact, the ISIS’ self-proclaimed Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has made his wont to MEDIA WATCH target the Saudi regime in his speeches and BIBLIOGRAPHY has designated the Nejd and Hijaz regions of the kingdom as vital for his organization’s expansion. Baghdadi continues to vilify the ruling Al Saud family by calling them ‘Al-
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Salul’, a reference to a seventh-century tribal increase in recidivism rates following the rise of ISIS. chief depicted as outwardly embracing Islam, while simultaneously aligning with Jewish The celebrated ‘munasahat’ or counselling powers. programme, wherein scores of social workers, psychologists and imams rehabilitate former Such messaging is clearly having its intended militants is now coming in for a lot of effect. According to an opinion poll, about 5 criticism. The cult of Fares Al Shuwail al- percent of the Saudi population (about Zahrani, a radical leader who refused to 500,000 people) supports the ISIS. This accept the views of government-backed number is huge considering people in the religious scholars, and was subsequently kingdom are mostly wary of expressing their executed, is reportedly growing among religious and political views in the open. extremist youth. Zahrani is now being lionized by radicals for his stated refusal “to It is in response to this growing internal board the sinking ship of Al-Saud, for their threat that Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes ship carries nothing but airplanes for to decimate ISIS presence in Syria and Iraq, America”. as part of the US-led coalition in 2014. Then on December 15, 2015, its young deputy It is in this climate of extremist ferment that crown prince and defense minister the ISIS’ highly divisive discourse along with Mohammed bin Salman, announced the its warlike resistance is finding greater creation of the Islamic Military Alliance to resonance among the impressionable youth of Fight Terrorism (IMAFT), a coalition of 34 the Arabian peninsula. The group continues Sunni states to face-off the festering sore of to win sympathisizers and recruits as it the so-called Islamic State. discredits all other Muslim sects, movements and regimes in its ‘holier-than-thou’ Late last month, the kingdom is said to have posturing for religious and political conducted ‘The Northern Thunder’ joint legitimacy. Remarkably, ISIS is said to have military exercise, involving 20 other Sunni declared war against Suroori Salafis − a countries. This military exercise focused on violent sect espousing extreme jihadist ideals the northern front, close to areas under ISIS − after it branded them infidels and therefore control, and is touted as the largest joint fit for slaughter. In the words of AbelRahman military wargames ever conducted in the Al Rashed, General Manager of Al Arabiya region. Saudi Arabia has even reportedly News Channel, it is ironic that the so-called threatened to intervene in Syria to fight the Islamic State has turned the heat on Suroori ISIS threat there. Salafis, as “ ISIS is itself the product of the It is clear that the Saudi regime’s hitherto Suroori teachings, which is the product of ‘soft approach’ against the gathering ISIS extremist ideologies that preceded them.” storm has proven ineffectual. The once Increasingly, the level of animosity and highly successful Saudi counter- insecurity among various radical Islamist and radicalization campaign (called Prevention, jihadist organizations toward the ISIS is Rehabilitation and Post-Release Care or growing. In many ways, the madcap PRAC), which for a decade reclaimed Al- organization has not only exposed the much- Qaeda linked radicals in the hundreds, has vaunted ideal of a truly Islamic State as recently come under a cloud with an alarming
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Page 2 hollow by physically manifesting its empty Saudi Arabia has drawn a lot of unjust promise, it has also dealt a lasting blow to the skepticism from several quarters over its image of “innocent victimhood” as projected commitment to fighting the growing menace by Islamist groups after replacing it with that of the ISIS. However, the kingdom is clearly of brutal persecution and unbridled savagery. taking the ISIS threat very seriously, even as For their part, Saudi authorities have dubbed its purported support for other Salafi jihadist the ISIS mindset a “disease” and the groups in the region remains questionable. movement a ‘Khawarij’ offshoot, in reference to a violently puritanical and (The writer is a researcher and journalist) excommunicated sect in early Islamic history, responsible for the assassination of Caliph Push and Pull: Saudi-Russian Ali. In addition to the threat of growing Jockeying in West Asia radicalization within the country, ISIS has also increased its terrorist campaign inside Mikhil Rialch Saudi Arabia . On February 8 this year, it detonated a car bomb in the capital Riyadh The Munich Security Conference – whose which damaged scores of vehicles, although main agenda was to “accelerate the nobody was hurt. Almost a week ago on termination of the war in Syria” – may have January 29, four people were killed and 20 produced mixed results but two messages did others injured in a suicide attack in the emerge from it: that it was not possible to eastern Al-Ahsa region. ISIS is said to have achieve a resolution in Syria without Russia; claimed responsibility for both attacks. and that the most popular military option up For its part, Saudi Interior Ministry has for consideration was a Saudi-led coalition. offered 7 million riyals ($1.9 million) for In the light of this, and other recent information that directly prevents such developments, it becomes necessary to terrorist attacks. There is also a 1 million examine the dynamics of the two vis-à-vis riyals ($266,000) reward for credible each other and globally. information on the whereabouts of terrorists. Following the OPEC-plus-Russia agreement on the oil production freeze to January levels, The announcement followed the arrest of a there was a flurry of activity in geopolitical Saudi soldier Salah Al-Shahrani and his wife punditry circles about the political for their alleged involvement in an attack that implications of the deal, prompting Russian killed 12 members of the kingdom’s special spokesperson Dmitry Peskovto categorically forces in Abha, in the south-west of the king- deny any linkages between the oil deal and dom, last year. Earlier the same year, ISIS the Syrian conflict, saying “They are two claimed responsibility for three attacks on different matters.” On the face of it, Peskov Shia mosques in the eastern region of Qatif, which killed over 25 people. Again in July appears to be right. The oil deal between 2015, Saudi security authorities in claimed to Riyadh and Moscow is yet another have foiled operations launched by ISIS and collaborative economic initiative divorced arrested more than 400 recruits allegedly from political realities, just like the recent affiliated with the group. civil nuclear cooperation agreement signed between the two. But a closer look reveals
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Page 3 that the Kingdom and Russia are facing Lavrov’s sharp rebuke, “The Americans and similar predicaments. our Arab partners must think hard about this – do they want a permanent war? All sides To start with, the plunge of oil prices from must be forced to the negotiating table $105 to below $40 in the matter of a year instead of sparking a new world war.” continues to burn through the liquid assets of oil-producing countries at a scandalous rate. Here it becomes important to assess the West The recent downsizing of subsidies and cuts Asian situation from a wider lens. With the on government spending in the Saudi budget diminishing influence of the US and the rise illustrate just how badly the Kingdom is of Iran, a new politico-economic order is ripe smarting from the $98 billion deficit they have for the making. In forging a closer sustained in the year since global oil prices partnership with Russia on the economic plummeted. Recession-hit Russia is faring front, Saudi Arabia achieves two crucial even worse as global imports decline and the objectives: a diversifying of political US fracking revolution resists arrest by GCC influence now that the US is no longer a pressure. Riyadh has realized that it is no reliable backer; and the availability of a longer a swing state and to maintain even a heavyweight interlocutor with Teheran with shadow of its former dominance over the which Riyadh’s ties are at an all-time low. engines of the world, it needs to form an axis Russia, too, cannot hope to play a meaningful with another major oil producer: Russia. role in shaping the political future of the Moreover, the domestic tumults in both region without at least tacit support from the Riyadh and Moscow (strain of providing leader of the GCC states, Saudi Arabia. The subsidies to a restive population in the former, disintegration of its hitherto-bonhomie with and stains of rampant corruption in the latter) Turkey following the downing of a Russian make external crises a cause to rally jet makes the need for cooperation more around.Saudi Arabia’s newfound assertive urgent. posturing (read Yemen, Lebanon, Syria) in the region is in sync with Putin’s balancing of Riyadh has displayed an aggressive stance on regional isolation with geopolitical the Syrian issue, with announcement of an proactiveness – specifically in West Asia. Islamic coalition and promises of providing surface-to-air missiles to the rebel groups Case in point here is the Syrian conflict targeting Russian airplanes but the economic which has long shed the binaries of the pro- and geopolitical imperatives demand and anti-Assad factions, and metamorphosed convergence, not conflict. Saudi diplomacy into a multipolar struggle in a state of has tended towards accommodation of stalemate – with Saudi Arabia and Russia mutual interests through backchannel access find themselves in opposing camps. A major in the past, and with Russia giving all the sticking point between the two remains the signs of being here to stay in West Asian fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, politics, one can hazard a gradual buildup of evidenced by Saudi Foreign Minister Adel economic ties (beginning with oil) to reach a Al-Jubeir’scomments that Russia’s efforts to point where economic stakes can be save al-Assad are doomed to fail and urging leveraged for political measures, granting it to “end its air operations against the both a larger say across Syria and beyond. moderate Syrian opposition.” This was The West Asian regional order for this matched by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
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Page 4 century will be decided on the basis of the election in 2012. At the time, Sultan Qaboos contours of the Saudi-Russian relationship. bin Said had assured Obama that Oman could serve as a back channel to the Iranians. That (The Writer is Research Intern at ORF) summer in Muscat, US officials and their Iranian counterparts held their first secret COMMENTARIES meeting, marking the beginning of the negotiations that ultimately led to last year’s How Oman is helping Obama shut watershed nuclear deal between the six world down Guantanamo Bay powers and Iran. Giorgio Cafiero Oman’s role as the host of the secret talks spared Obama from the domestic and In January, the Pentagon transferred 10 low- international backlash he might have faced level Guantanamo Bay detainees to Oman, had news of the deliberations gone public marking the largest resettlement of such in an election year. Democratic candidates prisoners in a single day since the US and incumbents have assiduously avoided military began detaining suspected terrorists appearing “soft” on Iran since President there 14 years ago. Oman has become the Jimmy Carter’s humiliating defeat in 1980, in primary destination for transferred which the US hostage crisis (1979-1981) prisoners, having accepted roughly half of the played a role. Guantanamo inmates released since January 2015. In another instance, in May 2015, Oman — the only Arab Gulf state not to have joined The US military had resettled six Yemeni the Saudi-led military intervention in prisoners in Oman last June, and soon after, Yemen launched in March — hosted secret the Pentagon expressed its gratitude for talks between US State Department officials Muscat’s “willingness to support ongoing US and representatives of the Houthi rebel efforts to close the Guantanamo Bay movement to discuss a cease-fire. In the detention facility” and for its “appropriate 1980s, Oman — the only neutral Gulf security and humane treatment Cooperation Council (GCC) member during measures.” The prisoner transfers underscore the Iran-Iraq War — had hosted secret cease- the relationship between Muscat and fire negotiations between Tehran and Washington. Baghdad. Muscat has more recently also helped broker the release of US citizens As a stable Arab state that has maintained a imprisoned in Iran and held hostage in military partnership with the United States Yemen. since 1980, Oman plays a relatively low- profile, but influential role in Washington’s The Arabian Sea nation has historically relied Middle East policy. Maintaining neutral on the world’s most powerful naval force of stances on Middle Eastern conflicts while the day — at one point the United Kingdom keeping diplomatic ties open to all sides, and now the United States — to safeguard it Muscat has served on several occasions as a from external threats. Although the diplomatic back channel for the United States. sultanate’s leadership tries to obscure the US Secretary of State John Kerry has said of visibility of Oman’s military ties with the Oman that it offers "wise advice and [helps] West, the United States is Muscat’s most find solutions to various problems in the important defense partner. Oman hosts three region.” The Iranian nuclear agreement is US military installations, at Thumrait Naval one important example of this. Air Base, Masirah Air Base and Seeb International Airport. Three days after the Iran’s nuclear program was a hot-button issue prisoner transfer to Oman last month, the during President Barack Obama’s bid for re- State Department released a statement
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Page 5 approving a $51 million missile sale to Oman, remains to be seen whether Obama can make describing the nation as an “important force good on his 2008 campaign pledge and for political stability and economic progress release the remaining 91 detainees within the in the Middle East.” next 11 months. In any event, his administration has plans to transfer more Since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks by al- low-level detainees to other nations. It would Qaeda, Muscat has cooperated with not be surprising if Oman continues to Washington in the legal, intelligence and receive Yemeni prisoners, who constitute the financial spheres to counter international majority of those still held in the detention terror organizations, including al-Qaeda and facility. the Islamic State (IS). The Royal Oman Police Coast Guard, the Directorate General Last month, however, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R- of Customs and the Royal Army of Oman N.H., voiced concern about transferring more have engaged US export control Guantanamo detainees to Oman, given that it authorities to help them secure Oman’s land shares a border with Yemen. Ayotte even and maritime borders as well as its ports. suggested that the administration was releasing the prisoners to Oman to According to the Financial Actions Task circumvent a US law prohibiting the transfer Force, Muscat has signed the International of Guantanamo prisoners to Yemen. Convention for the Suppression of the Regardless, given that Afghanistan, Saudi Financing of Terrorism and established Arabia and Yemen — the top three an Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the destinations for the 532 Guantanamo Financing of Terrorism system compliant prisoners released under President George W. with international standards. Despite reports Bush — are far less stable than Oman, it that two of the people behind the Jan. 7, 2015, seems only logical that the Obama Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris had passed administration has turned to the “quiet through Oman, the State Department kingdom.” asserted that Muscat officials are taking necessary measures to keep extremist groups (Source: Almonitor.net, 17 February, 2016) from using the sultanate as a haven or transit point. Organizations monitoring foreign Embedding a de-radicalization fighters joining IS' ranks have not identified any Omanis among the group's plan into the road map for peace members. Also, Oman is the only GCC in Syria nation that has not had a single citizen Osman Bahadır Dincer & Mehmet Hecan detained at Guantanamo.
The White House is determined to empty Given that Syria is now an internationalized Guantanamo, which in Obama’s words is a and regionalized quagmire that has been free “recruitment brochure for our enemies.” By to evolve for more than four years while taking the risk of accepting at least 21 exerting increasingly negative effects on the Guantanamo prisoners since January 2015, region and on the idea of Middle Eastern Oman appears to be pursuing a strong peace overall, the political road-map to relationship with the United States, playing endorse the Syrian peace process resultant of the role of Washington’s ally and “moderate” the Vienna conference is certainly a positive Arab and Muslim country. development. Following the conference, the passing of the UNSC resolution on this road- In light of Republican Party opposition to map last December may also be seen in a resettling high-level inmates on US soil and similarly positive light, especially when the Pentagon’s reported sluggishness in considering that the last resolution on the transferring Guantanamo prisoners abroad, it transition process in Syria was adopted
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Page 6 nearly four years ago in April, 2012. These to deal with radical organizations even developments at least give us hope, and thus though it may not want to recognize them as galvanize, in spite of all the challenges and legitimate parties to the peace process. Syria disruptions, us to talk about peace, a far-off is no exception. The country now harbours an notion which has been relegated to the distant increasing number of radical organizations corners of our minds ever since 2013 when that will need to be dealt with through de- the intensity of clashes and militarization radicalization incentives in the post-Vienna peaked. period.
Nevertheless, it is critical that we The recent political road-map provides a acknowledge that the road map’s prospects significant case that can test how successful are being clouded by numerous uncertainties. we are in abridging the link between de- Put differently, the international community radicalization and peace-building. Off the bat is now caught unprepared as it has not been it can nonetheless be stated that the problem successful in debating the particular stages of with the current political road-map is that it problem-solving that could actually offers little to push armed groups, including substantiate a roadmap for peace. One such the radical ones, to lay down their arms. contributor to this impasse is the lack of a According to the road-map, Jordan is clear strategy that could be employed to deal assigned to determine the terrorist with radical-terrorist organizations. In Syria, organizations that will not be added to the list where the critical phase in the conflict cycle of groups representing the opposition during in terms of radicalization is already behind us, the negotiations. The main challenge any peace-building initiatives should harbour associated with this task is that it adopts a de-radicalization plans or at least concrete static approach featuring an exclusive incentives for radical-terrorist organizations character. This risks that those who are to de-radicalize. This is one variable that the excluded will continue to terrorize the international community must address while country with increased fervor and do their proceeding with the post-Vienna process. best to sabotage any peace-building efforts.
De-radicalization and peace-building: Vital need for a dynamic approach Discovering the missing link Given the abovementioned risk, a dynamic The need to reconcile de-radicalization plans approach, rather than a static one, while still with peace-building efforts stems from the excluding some exceptional groups such as fact that the root causes of radicalization- Daesh and al-Nusra, may be more productive. related challenges are generally functions of In this sense, groups might be able to find a unresolved civil-conflicts. That is, when the place on the roster of the official opposition international community cannot successfully not as a result of what they have done so far, address newly emerging conflicts they are but rather as a result of their willingness to likely to result in heightened radicalization in comply with the requests of the international the long run and therewith affect much wider community. Here, certain groups might be geographies. It goes without saying that able to be removed from the terrorist list, be organizations like Boko Haram, al-Shabab, or regarded as a part of the solution process, and Iraqi al-Qaeda exploited chaotic not be targeted by the international coalition environments and expanded their spheres of if they redesign and reorganize themselves in influence when the conflicts in Nigeria, line with certain conditionalities (i.e. by Somalia, and Iraq intensified. For this reason, recognizing the outcomes of negotiations, during the later stages of a conflict cycle, i.e. observing ceasefires, laying down their arms, when the community of nations seeks to acting in line with the recognized body of address the conflict at hand, the international Syrian opposition, etc.). community has to generate coordinated plans
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A dynamic approach featuring such Third, in the absence of a sufficient conditionalities is more likely to create a international commitment to fight radicals on form of transformative leverage on these the ground, aside from engaging in groups rather than turn them into antagonists ineffective airstrikes, the international of the peace efforts as a result of their community has to find better and innovative exclusion. It is also likely that this kind of ways to transform radical groups, as they are instrumentalization of the peace process can likely to remain in Syria for the foreseeable generate an incentive for some radicals to future. This is a fact that should be align themselves with groups of a more incorporated into the peace building efforts, moderate nature. However, improper as it is critical to adopt a realistic approach management of the negotiations featuring an according to realities on the ground. In this overt emphasis on exclusion is likely to push vein, it deserves note that the Assad regime is various armed groups into further sitting at the negotiation table although its radicalization as they seek to gain recognition war crimes are no different from those as parties to the negotiations or even simply committed by radicals. as relevant actors with a voice. To be sure, what is suggested here aims to The rationale for a dynamic approach stir discussions on the realities of peace- building rather than to reflect on absolute For the international community, the problem-solving proposals. It is evident that rationale for adopting such a dynamic the current market for ideas on peace- approach is multifold. building is sparse, as de-radicalization needs to be reconciled with conflict resolution; and First, some actors, particularly Russia and this will only be possible once further mental Iran, embrace a very broad definition of training enables us to imagine and “radical-terrorist organizations”, and substantiate potential peace-building therefore seek to designate as many Syrian processes. groups as they can as such in line with their geopolitical interests. In this way, they aim to deactivate many opposition elements. A (Source: Foreign Policy News, 20 February, dynamic approach could balance these efforts 2016) as it would serve to depoliticize the larger process. Second, over time, the conflict in Syria has become a process in which only those who have radicalized could survive, as the persistent brutality of the Assad regime, Hezbollah, Iran, Shia militias, and Russia has either eliminated or passivized moderate ways of thinking. This renders defining the group of recognized opposition highly challenging; and it is also why there is a vital need to spend more time on forming a functional body of opposition from existing forces and groups. An inclusive incorporation or at least proper management of the opposition is required to ensure a sustainable ceasefire, as many excluded groups fight with substantial territory under their control and even enjoy considerable social bases.
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STATEMENT Today, we share a core strategic interest in coalition victory in Syria and Iraq. The end for Daesh in Syria and Iraq requires our Remarks by His Majesty King Abdullah II concerted action, and it is a priority in our at the 52nd Munich Security Conference region. Yet, winning the war for the future 12 February, 2016 requires more. We need to acknowledge that Daesh is only part of a global threat. In the name of God, the Most Merciful, the Most Compassionate, Failed states, conflict zones and sectarian divisions have been fertile grounds for this Minister von der Leyen, cancer. It has instigated violence and inhumanity across borders and lured agents Ambassador Ischinger, from across the world. We in this room know better than anyone that no region has been Distinguished colleagues: exempt.
Vielen Dank, Thank you. It is a pleasure to be My friends, here in Germany again. The Jordanian and German people share many bonds, but above This is why I cannot overstate the importance all, deep common values: peace, mutual of a holistic approach. We cannot succeed by respect, the well-being of all. Such principles focusing on uprooting Daesh from Syria or have empowered Germany’s vital role in the Iraq while other terrorist groups and affiliates peaceful transformation of Europe and the strengthen in Africa and Asia. It is time for a world. No one symbolises that better than my new level of global action focusing our good friend Chancellor Merkel. I have resources, coordinating our responsibilities closely witnessed her strong leadership in the and synchronising our military and security war on terror and in facing international efforts. Our countries, our international challenges. As a close friend of Germany, I institutions, must work collectively, as a truly greatly respect her wisdom and tremendously global alliance. admire her vision. We, as Arabs and Muslims, have a My friends responsibility and duty to be in the lead in the fight against the Khawarej, or outlaws of We have all heard strategists warn about the Islam. This is a war to protect our religion, dangers of being stuck in the past – ‘fighting our values and the future of our people. the last war’ instead of the present one. Let us recognise that, here and now, we are all But it is also an effort that must be global in fighting the next war: a new and complex partnership, just as it is global in scope. All struggle for the future. our peoples are threatened by the outlaws’ ideology of violence and contempt for human I’ve called this struggle a ‘third world war by life. To counteract this threat, our countries other means’. The point is not simply that the must be equally committed to the ideas that threat is global – although, indeed, it does unite us in this war – from our shared impact the entire international community. humanity, to the search for political solutions, But world wars share something else as well: to the importance of global justice. they are massive change agents. Winning or losing this global war will shape global The Syrian refugee crisis is an urgent case in values and define our security and way of life point. One of the biggest humanitarian long into the 21st century. tragedies of our age is unfolding on our shores and borders. Nowhere has this been brought closer to home than in Jordan, which
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Page 9 now hosts one Syrian for every five Nothing could be more costly to Europe than Jordanians. rising instability and extremism in the Balkans. It is, therefore, vital to shut out Our world must also act as one on the extremists, on all sides, who seek to diplomatic front. The killing in Syria has to manufacture division in that area of the stop if we are to move forward and find a continent. political solution, one that protects Syria’s independence and integrity, and enables the A key challenge today lies in the ability of Syrian people to live with dignity and enjoy some, who take advantage of the cover of the rights they deserve. Achieving that Islam, to advance political agendas in the solution is key to winning this war together, Balkans that are not in the interest of Europe. and will help us focus on the global threat. This is something we should act together to prevent. My friends, I appeal to you here to reach out to countries There are other key steps we must take such as Bosnia-Herzegovina, Albania and together. Supporting the Iraqi government in Kosovo. These countries, including others in clearing its towns and villages of the control the Balkan region, should be an integral part of Daesh also requires support for serious of Europe’s architecture and pillars of your steps towards reconciliation. We should not security and prosperity. Bring them closer to allow sectarian and religious differences to you as models of coexistence, moderation be used to advance political agendas or gain and tolerance so they become Europe’s influence. frontline of stability.
And the community of nations cannot talk I hope that here, at the Munich Security about universal rights and global justice, but Conference, we can address this issue. Let’s continue to deny statehood to Palestinians! not find ourselves meeting again in a few This failure has created a festering injustice, years to discuss threats that we could well and continues to be exploited by Daesh and have prevented. its kind. Our whole world has paid the price. Left unresolved, the Palestinian-Israeli It is you, the national and international conflict will become a religious conflict of a leaders gathered here, who know best what global dimension. And it is only a matter of we are up against. And it is you who can best time before we may be faced by yet another help our countries come together in response. war in Gaza or in South Lebanon. This is For if we do not act now, the dangers will why reaching a two-state solution should only grow; and if we do not act in concert, remain a priority for us all. we will miss further opportunities for success.
My friends, Thank you.
I would like to add a word about Europe. (Source: kingabdullah.jo, 12 February, 2016)
Europe, clearly, has a special interest in supporting us across the Mediterranean. But it is also essential not to ignore the challenges that face us in the Balkans. Muslim majority countries in the Balkans deserve our support to pre-empt the threat of extremism.
These countries are Europe’s frontline against extremism and its first line of defence.
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MEDIA WATCH
Russia proposes March 1 ceasefire in Syria; U.S Canada to end ISIL air strikes within weeks wants it now: Canada is to end its participation in air strikes Russia has proposed a March 1 ceasefire in Syria, against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant U.S. officials said on Wednesday, but Washington (ISIL) group in Syria and Iraq within two weeks, believes Moscow is giving itself and the Syrian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced. government three weeks to try to crush moderate Source Aljazeera, 9 February, 2016 rebel groups.
Will Syria’s war be won or lost in Aleppo? Source The Hindu, 11 February, 2016
It is the clearest example yet of the impact Syria war: Powers agree on ‘cessation of Russian bombing is having in Syria. Hezbollah hostilities’ and other fighters loyal to President Bashar al- World powers have agreed on a "cessation of Assad, backed by Russian air power, are hostilities" in Syria that could serve as a bridge advancing on Syria's largest city Aleppo. towards the resumption of genuine peace talks later Source Aljazeera, 9 February, 2016 this month.
U.A.E Prince in India set to give business boost Source Aljazeera, 12 February, 2016
In a sign of the importance India attaches to its Erdogan renews call for no-fly zone in Syria ties with the UAE, PM Narendra Modi on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan renews a Wednesday received at the airport Abu Dhabi call for the establishment of a no-fly zone in Syria Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed Zayed Al in the face of Russian airstrikes Nahyan, who is on a three-day visit to the country. Source PressTV, 11 February, 2016 Source The Times of India, 11 February, 2016 NATO mulls joining US-led coalition in Syria, Aleppo fighting displaces 50,000 people, says Iraq: Carter Red Cross US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter says the A surge in fighting in Syria's Aleppo province NATO military alliance may join a coalition has displaced about 50,000 people, the purportedly targeting Daesh Takfiri militants in International Committee of the Red Cross Syria and Iraq. (ICRC) has warned. The humanitarian situation is deteriorating rapidly, the ICRC added, with Source PressTV, 12 February 2016 water supplies to Aleppo city cut.
Source BBC NEWS, 11 February, 2016
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Kurds should abandon secession bid: Iraq Nato willing to help in refugee crisis – US Premier Nato is willing to support a German, Greek and The Iraqi prime minister has stressed the need for Turkish request for a maritime mission to help preserving the country’s territorial integrity and monitor Turkey’s Aegean Sea coast for refugee called on Kurdistan to scrap any plans for smugglers, independence. Source Gulf News, 11 February, 2016 Source Iran Daily, 11 February, 2016 Foreign forces' presence in Syria may spark Bahrain, Russia keen on widening cooperation world war: Russia PM
Bahrain and Russia have agreed to bolster their The Russian prime minister has warned that the relations and cooperation as King Hamad Bin Eisa involvement of foreign troops in Syria could result Al Khalifa and President Vladimir Putin held talks in a “new world war" amid plans by Saudi Arabia in the Russian city of Sochi. and its allies to potentially deploy ground troops there. Source Gulf News, 09 February, 2016 Source PressTV, 11 February, 2016 Israel, Turkey begins new talks on normalisation UN raps Israel for using excessive force against Top officials from Turkey and Israel have begun Palestinians new closed-door talks on a deal to normalise ties more than half a decade after relations were A UN human rights expert has slammed Israel for downgraded. using excessive force against Palestinian protesters amid ongoing tensions between the two sides in the Source Gulf News, 09 February, 2016 occupied territories.
Death toll from war in Syria now 470,000, group Source PressTV, 12 February, 2016 finds Daesh has used, can make chemical weapons: As waves of heavy Russian airstrikes edged closer CIA director to the Turkish border on Thursday, a Syrian research group issued a report saying the impact of The Daesh (ISIL) terrorist group has used chemical five years of war in Syria has been more devastating weapons in its attacks and is capable of making than already thought. small quantities of chlorine and mustard gas, says the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director. Source New York Times, 11 February, 2016 Source PressTV, 12 February, 2016 Hundreds of armed rebels cross from Turkey into Syria, says monitor
“At least 500 rebels have crossed the Bab al-Salam border crossing on their way to the town of Azaz,
Source The Guardian, 18 February, 2016
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‘Death to America’ marks Iran revolution Syria conflict: UN suspends peace talks in anniversary Geneva
Iranians waved “Death to America” banners and The UN has suspended peace talks aimed at ending took selfies with a ballistic missile Thursday as they Syria's five-year civil war, just days after they marked 37 years since the Islamic revolution. began.
Source Gulf News, 11 February, 2016 Source BBC, 03 February, 2016
Yemeni forces closest they have ever been to the Turkey's capital Ankara rocked by deadly capital explosion
Yemeni government forces battling Iran-backed Al At least 28 people have been killed and 61 more Houthi militants in northern Yemen tightened wounded in a large explosion targeting a military control on two strategic military camps in Sana’a vehicle in heart of the Turkish capital of Ankara. and Jawf provinces. Source Aljazeera, 17 February 2016 Source Gulf News, 11 February, 2016 Hadi reveals evidence of Hezbollah’s After President’s trip, Sushma to visit Palestine, involvement in Yemen Israel Yemeni President Abdrabbu Mansour Hadi has External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj will visit revealed that the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Israel and Palestine on January 17-18 to strengthen Nasrallah, sent him a letter explaining Hezbollah’s India’s engagement with the two countries role in the fighting in Yemen.
Source Indian Express, 13 January, 2016 Source Alarabiya.net, 17 February, 2016
Syria opposition delegation arrives for Geneva Turkey says favors Syria ground operation with talks its allies
Syria's main opposition bloc has arrived in Geneva Turkey is in favor of a ground operation into to assess the intentions of the government in neighboring Syria but only with its allies, a senior implementing humanitarian measures that could Turkish official said on Tuesday. allow it to join political negotiations. Source Alarabiya.net, 16 February, 2016 Source Aljazeera, 02 February, 2016 'Humanitarian catastrophe' unfolding in Yemen: Outlook for Syria peace talks still ‘cloudy’: UN UN
The United Nations Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura The UN humanitarian chief has said a is very keen to hold a new round of peace talks after "humanitarian catastrophe" is unfolding in Yemen big powers agreed on a "cessation of hostilities", a with more than 21 million Yemenis in need of some U.N. form of aid.
Source Reuters, 12 February, 2016 Source Aljazeera, 17 February, 2016
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Ceasefire Doesn’t Mean Parties 'Stop Using Weapons,' According To Syria's Assad
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said on Monday anyceasefire did not mean each side had to stop using weapons, and nobody was capable of securing the conditions for one within a week.
Source Huffingtonpost, 15 February, 2016
Syrian terrorist list produces 163 names and no agreement
Major Powers trying to forge a Syrian peace plan have made almost no progress on overcoming one of the main obstacles to ending the war: deciding who is a terrorist - and therefore a legitimate target - and who is not.
Source Gulf News, 17 February, 2016
Damascus says UN Syria envoy deviating from mission
A senior aide to President Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday accused the UN's Syria envoy of deviating from his mission by focusing on aid deliveries.
Source Al-monitor, 17 February, 2016
Russia takes Turkey to UN over Syria
Russia has called an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss what it describes as the deteriorating situation on the Turkish-Syrian border and Turkey's plans to send troops into Syria.
Source Aljazeera, 19 February 2016
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Rami G. Khouri, The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry Abdulrahman al-Rashed, Establishing a State That Threatens the Entire Middle East: Aljazeera Suits Assad! , al-Awsat, 11 February, 2016 America, 5 January 2016 Marwan Bishara, Why Obama Fails the Leadership Khalaf Ahmad al Habtoor, Western Powers Test in the Middle East, Aljazeera, 8 February, Knowtow to Iran: Middle East Policy Council, 2016 C. Raja Mohan, Re-Imagining the Middle East, Cadman Toby, ICC Must Look Into Egypt Role in Indian Express, 19 January, 2016 Gaza Atrocities, Aljazeera, 10 February, 2016 Tunku varadarajan, Reverse Swing: Europe Shahir Saless Shahid, Ayatollah Khamenei’s Cultural Nightmare, Indian Express, 31 January, Enormous Dilemma, Gulf News, 11 February, 2016 2016 Hayder Al Khoei, A War Against Itself, Indian A Change to Halt the Brutality in Syria, New York Express, 07 January, 2016 Times, 11 February, 2016 Ibrahim Fraihat, Palestine: Still Key to Stability in George Soros, Putin is A Bigger Thread to Europe the Middle East, Aljazeera, 28 January, 2016 Existence than ISIS, the Guardian, 11 February, 2016 Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, Iran Aims To Hurt the U.S By Dumping the Dollar, Al-arabiya.net, 12 Frida Ghitis, One Issue the Candidates Should Be February, 2016 Talking About, CNN, 12 February, 2016 Nayla Tueni, Hezbollah Has No Merits in Lebanon, Luke Coffey, Aleppo Can Be a Turning Point In Al-arabiya.net, 12 February, 2016 Syria’s Civil War:, Aljazeera, 10 February, 2016 Yossi Mekelberg, Hamas, Israel Digging in For Geoffrey Aronson, the Moscow- Jerusalem Axis another War, Al-arabiya.net, 11 February, 2016 over Syria, Aljazeera, 9 February, 2106 Maria Dubonikova, Everyone to Blame for Failure Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro, The Right of Syria Diplomacy, Al-arabiya.net, 10 February, Way to Think About the Syrian Talks, Foreign 2016 Affairs, 8 February, 2016 Aaron Stein, The Syrian civil war has became a Fedric Wehrey, The Next Front against ISIS, perpetual conflict, Aljazeera, 14 February, 2016 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 7 February, 2016 James Den Selow, A Syria without Syrians, Aljazeera, 14 February, 2016 K P Fabian, Syria’s Unending Tragedy, IDSA, 11 February, 2016 Randeep Ramesh, The U.N should be the solution in Libya, but it’s the problem, the Guardian, 14 Aaron David Miller, Who Lost the Middle East? February, 2016 CNN, 25 January, 2016
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Shashank Joshi, Russia is the big winner in Syria’s Chris Stephen, Five Years after Gaddafi, Libya flawed, the Guardian, 12 February, 2016 Torn By Civil War and Battles with Isis, the Guardian, 16 February, 2016 Assad and Russia’s dangerous game will leave riven by sectarian divides, the Guardian, 12 Maria Dubovikova, Can A Ground Offensive End February, 2016 The Syria Conundrum? , Alarabiya.Net, 17 February, 2016 Turki al- Dakhil Acting against ISIS before it is too late, al-arabiya.net, 14 February, 2016 Anthony Sattin, What Would T E Lawrence Do? Aljazeera, 16 Feb 2016 Brooklyn Middleton, Syria when is a ceasefire not actually a ceasefire? Al-arabiya.net, 14 February, Fehim Taştekin, Why Turkey Is Losing Hope In 2016 Syrian Border Town Of Azaz, Al-Monitor, 17 February, 2016 Eyad Abu Shakra, Kissinger’s touches in the Middle East, al-arabiya.net, 14 February, 2016 Akiva Eldar, How To Reverse Engineer Israeli- Palestinian Peace, al-Monitor, 16 February, 2016 Abdulrahman al-Rashed, Moscow’s World War III scarecrow, al-arabiya.net, 14 February, 2016 Mustafa Al-Haj, Will Regime Keep The Upper Hand In Syrian Conflict? Al-Monitor, 16 February, Ranj Alaaldin, Iran’s weak Grips, Foreign Affairs, 2016 11 February, 2016 Francis Matthew, UAE’s Re-Invigorated Alliance Michael J. Koplow, Gaza prepares for the next war, with India, Gulf News, 17 February, 2016 Foreign Affairs, 11 February, 2016 Joseph A. Kechichian, America in the Gulf: The Ethan Chorin, Setting the record Straight on Next 80 Years, Gulf News, 17 February, 2016 Benghazi, Foreign Affairs, 10 February, 2016 Nick Cunningham, Historic Opec-Russia Agreement Khaled Ahmad, Islamic State comes to Pakistan, Will Have Minimal Impact, Huffingtonpost, 17 Indian Express, 13 February, 2016 February, 2016
Annie Sparrow, Aiding disaster, Foreign Affairs, Steven Rothman, Why I Support the Iran Nuclear 01 February, 2016 Deal, Huffingtonpost, 16 February, 2016
Aaron David Miller, Missing from Geneva talks: A David E. Sanger, Russian Intervention in Syrian process that could lead to peace in Syria, Woodrow War Has Sharply Reduced U.S. Options, New York Wilson International Centre for Scholars, 02 Times, 10 February, 2016 February, 2016 Mowaffaq Safadi, Syrians Risked It All In A Aaron David Miller, Drawbacks to the Saudi offer Deadly Game of Poker. Assad Had the Better to send troops to Syria to fight ISIS, Woodrow Hand, the Guardian, 15 February, 2016 Wilson International Centre for Scholars, 09 February, 2016 Cihan Tugal, Syrian Refugees In Turkey Are Pawns In A Geopolitical Game,The Guardian, 15 Michael Clarke, if the Syria Ceasefire Fails, Isis February 2016 Will Be the Least of the West’s Problems, The Guardian, 16 February 2016 David Lepeska, Turkey is sinking into the quagmire of Syria, Aljazeera, 18 February, 2016
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K.P. Fabian, Chasing a Mirage in Munich? , IDSA, 18 February, 2016
John Bell, ISIL and the misuse of the imagination, EDITORS Aljazeera, 29 February, 2016 KANCHI GUPTA
Baria Alamuddin, International system ASHISH NAIK disintegrates as Syria burns, alarabiya.net, 23 February, 2016 CHAKRAVARTI SINGH
John Bell, France, Israel and Palestine: Same as it MIKHIL RIALCH ever was? , Aljazeera, 21 February, 2016
David Lepeska, Turkey is sinking into the quagmire of Syria, Aljazeera, 18 February, 2016
Raed Omari, Can Arab world economies achieve what politics couldn’t? , Alarabiya.net, 29 February, 2016
Raghida Dergham, Towards a strategic Arab- Russia dialogue, Alarabiya.net, 29 February, 2016
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