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Weekly Strateg Yy Tuesday, May 12, 2020 FBMKLCI: 1, 382 .31 THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* WWeeeekkllyy SSttrraatteeggyy Market View, News in Brief: Corporate, Economy, and Share Buybacks Kaladher Govindan Tel: +603-2167 9609 [email protected] www.taonline.com.my Market View FBMKLCI to Drift Lower on Sustained Selling Pressure The local blue -chip benchmark FT SE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) whipsawed between profit-taking and bargain hunting interest last week. Profit-taking post month-end window-dressing due to the US-China spat over the origin of the virus outbreak was offset by a strong rebound in global oil prices on hopes production cuts and reopening of major economies as virus lockdowns ease will boost demand recovery. Nonetheless, a late session selldown mid-week by foreign funds after oil prices fell on oversupply worries with US weekly crude stockpiles rising more than expected dampened market sentiment ahead of another extended three-day weekend break. Week-on-week, the FBM KLCI slumped 25.47 points, or 1.81 percent to 1,382.31, with losses on Nestle (-RM1.90), Public Bank (-64sen), Petronas Gas (-54sen), Kuala Lumpur Kepong (-40sen) and Hong Leong Finance (-28sen) accounting for most of the losses. Average daily traded volume and value last week stayed strong at 5.45 billion shares and RM2.67 billion, compared to the 5.22 billion shares and RM2.64 billion average the previous week, with active retail participation in small caps and low-priced penny stocks continuing to dominate daily trading activities. Selling pressure in Bursa Malaysia stocks is expected to sustain this week. Apart from Covid- 19 related issues, and Malaysia’s 1Q20 GDP data, the fast approaching one-day parliamentary session on 18 May could be another reason for investors to take profit, especially foreigners. The Covid-19 pandemic has worsened the rift between the US and China with both parties blaming each other for the ordeal and President Trump making statements that could throw the phase one trade agreement signed last January between both countries into a quandary. With the US making up about one third of the total 4.1 million cases, 280,000 deaths and about 90,000 daily Covid-19 cases worldwide, the reasons for the anger and the terrible agony are clear as the resulting economic lockdown has destroyed more than 30 million jobs in the country and is expected to contribute to an economic recession in 2020. Definitely, this doesn’t augur well for President Trump who is going for a reelection later this year. If Trump continues a rhetorical strategy to place the blame for Covid-19 pandemic squarely on China to secure his election victory, the fear is that this blame game could evolve into irrational actions that may include punitive move against Beijing. This may include imposition of new tariffs, sanctions, shifting supply chains away from China, not honouring its debt obligations, etc. To usurp such actions via collaboration with its allies could make the situation worse if China retaliates and push for similar alliances. Thus, both countries should set aside their differences and work together to find a cure for this pandemic, the sooner the better for economic recovery and stability in the financial markets. Page 1 of 10 12-May-20 Talking about economic r ecession, investors will be watching closely the release of Malaysia’s 1Q20 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this Wednesday. With only two-weeks of impact from the Movement Control Order being reflected during the quarter, we may witness the actual data to be flat or just slightly above zero percent, beating consensus expectations for a contraction of -0.6% year-on-year (YoY). Even if the growth turns out to be better than expectations due to still strong global trade, it is nothing to shout about as the real test is what transpires over the next two quarters. With one full month experiencing only about 45% of economic activities in the 2Q and activities in non-essential sectors still subject to greater restrictions than essential activities, the GDP for April to June quarter could contract at a double digit rate of around -13.2% YoY and remain in the negative territory in the third quarter (-2.9% YoY) before registering a growth of slightly more than 1% YoY in the fourth quarter. The better performance in the last quarter presumed all economic activities are back to normal and the positive impacts from the multi-billion stimulus measures and monetary loosening have started to trickle down in the economic value chain for a much stronger growth in 2021. Of course, this is based on a very important assumption that a cure for the Covid-19 disease is available by this October or no longer be a threat to economic activities. Externally, the US and China April data on inflation (both for consumers and producers) and retail sales will be keenly watched to gauge deflationary pressures and the pulse of the economy via consumer spending respectively. (THE REMAINING OF THIS PAGE IS INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK) Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy and/ or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. Kaladher Govindan – Head of Research TA S ECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Menara TA One 22 Jalan P. Ramlee 50250 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel: 603 – 2072 1277 Fax: 603 – 203 2 5048 www.ta.com.my Page 2 of 10 12-May-20 News In Brief Corporate CIMB Group Holdings Bhd’s 92.5 %-owned subsidiary, PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk posted an 11.8% increase in net profit of Indonesian rupiah IDR1.1trn in 1Q20. Despite the challenging environment due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the bank managed to achieve a double-digit net profit growth for 1Q20, mainly driven by an 11.5% YoY growth in non- interest income and a 2.7% YoY reduction in operating expenses. (Bernama) Comment: CIMB Niaga reported encouraging 1QFY20 results. Coming in within our estimates at 23%, net profit stood at Rp944bn. Net profit increased 9.2% QoQ and 11.8% YoY, with the yearly improvement underpinned by higher operating income and decline in operating expenses. ROE broadened to 10.58% vs. 9.48% a year ago. CAR remained strong at 19.39% post IFRS/PSAK71 implementation. Overall asset quality appeared stable during the 1Q. However, management guided that the 2Q will be more challenging as headwinds start gathering pace. Additionally, initial KPI targets may be out of reach due to moderation of financial performance envisaged in the coming months. We maintain our forecast on CIMB Group for now pending upcoming 1QFY20 results announcement. TP is maintained at RM3.90. BUY. MISC Bhd posted a net loss of RM1.16bn in 1QFY20, from a net profit of RM510.50mn a year ago, owing it having to make an RM1.05bn provision for litigation claims in its quarterly numbers. This is despite the group posting a higher revenue of RM2.51bn, from RM2.28bn previously, and a stronger operating profit of RM845.1mn, from RM591.9mn previously. (Bursa Malaysia/ The Edge) FGV Holdings Bhd is forming a JV company with Hyderabad-based Pre-Unique India Pvt Ltd to directly participate in the food and agri-based products market in India, particularly in South India region. Under the agreement signed, the partners would conduct intelligence work; provide advisory work and services for agricultural, plantation, and downstream related activities; operate agriculture, plantation, food and non-food processing facilities; and trade and market food and non-food products. (Bursa Malaysia/ Bernama) Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid has been appointed as the new chairman of Tenaga Nasional Bhd effective May 12. He will replace Tan Sri Ahmad Badri Mohd Zahir, who was appointed as the new chairman of the Employees' Provident Fund beginning May 1. (Bursa Malaysia/ Bernama) Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh has been appointed as chairman of Telekom Malaysia Bhd , effective May 11, 2020, succeeding Rosli Man. (Bursa Malaysia/ Bernama) MSM Malaysia Holdings Bhd (Not Rated) has appointed 4 independent and non- executive directors last Friday. They are former Petronas Chemical Bhd president and CEO Datuk Dr Abd Hapiz Abdullah, ex-UMW Holdings Bhd president and group CEO Datuk Syed Hisham Syed Wazir, Datuk Muthanna Abdullah and Choy Khai Choon. (Bursa Malaysia/ The Edge) Ireka Corp Bhd (Not Rated) has entered into a non-binding agreement with its London Stock Exchange-listed associate Aseana Properties Ltd to consider its participation in the latter’s de-merger exercise. The exercise would entail separating the interest of Ireka and its concert party, Legacy Essence Ltd along with other shareholders, who collectively owns and estimated 50% aggregate of the outstanding shares in Aseana, from those of Aseana. (Bursa Malaysia/ The Sun) Page 3 of 10 12-May-20 Ageson Bhd ’s (Not Rated) unit Esa Pile Sdn Bhd, which has no sand mining operations, will leverage on long-established partners and experienced subcontractors in the sand business to fulfil the RM27.5bn contract from Guangzhou Kaishengda Industrial Co Ltd (GKI). The company said the partners had obtained approved permit for the export of sands. (Bursa Malaysia/ Bernama) No applications have been received or Approved Permit approval given to Ageson Bhd (Not Rated) or its subsidiary, Esa Pile Sdn Bhd, said the Department of Mineral and Geoscience Malaysia director-general Datuk Shahar Effendi Abdullah Azizi.
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