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A Probabilistic Design Methodology for Building Performance Optimisation an Application to Low-Energy Dwellings

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A Probabilistic Design Methodology for Building Performance Optimisation an Application to Low-Energy Dwellings ARENBERG DOCTORAL SCHOOL Faculty of Engineering Science A probabilistic design methodology for building performance optimisation An application to low-energy dwellings Liesje VAN GELDER Supervisors Dissertation presented in partial Prof. dr. ir. arch. S. Roels fulfillment of the requirements for the Prof. dr. ir. H. Janssen degree of Doctor in Engineering Science December 2014 A probabilistic design methodology for building performance optimisation An application to low-energy dwellings Liesje VAN GELDER Examination committee: Dissertation presented in partial Prof. dr. ir. J. Vandewalle, chair fulfillment of the requirements Prof. dr. ir. arch. S. Roels, supervisor for the degree of Doctor in Prof. dr. ir. H. Janssen, co-supervisor Engineering Science Prof. dr. ir. G. Lombaert Prof. dr. ir. J. Van Dyck Prof. dr. ir. arch. F. De Troyer Prof. dr. ir. A. Mahdavi (Vienna University of Technology) Prof. dr. ir. arch. G. Verbeeck (Universiteit Hasselt) December 2014 © 2014 KU Leuven Faculty of Engineering Science Uitgegeven in eigen beheer, Liesje VAN GELDER, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40 box 2447, B-3001 Heverlee (Belgium) Alle rechten voorbehouden. Niets uit deze uitgave mag worden vermenigvuldigd en/of openbaar gemaakt worden door middel van druk, fotokopie, microlm, elektronisch of op welke andere wijze ook zonder voorafgaande schriftelijke toestemming van de uitgever. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced in any form by print, photoprint, microlm, electronic or any other means without written permission from the publisher. ISBN 978-94-6018-932-6 D/2014/7515/155 Voorwoord It always seems impossible until it’s done - Nelson Mandela Vier jaar geleden begon ik er aan: mijn doctoraat. In het begin waren er veel vraagtekens en gaandeweg kwamen er daar alleen maar bij. Na veel, erg veel, vallen en opstaan, kan ik eindelijk trots zijn op mijn boekje. Het heeft me letterlijk bloed, zweet en tranen gekost, maar ik ben er des te fier op. Daarom zou ik graag iedereen bedanken die mij hierin heeft geholpen. Zonder hun steun was u deze tekst niet aan het lezen. Allereerst wil ik mijn promoter Staf bedanken. Bedankt om mij steeds weer de goede weg te wijzen als ik weer eens verdwaald was. Bedankt om er voor te zorgen dat ik door projecten voldoende financiering had om mijn doctoraat te kunnen voltooien. Bedankt om verder ook te helpen in de nodige bijsturing van zowel projecten als doctoraat zodat deze beter op elkaar afgestemd konden worden en beiden binnen de voorziene tijd konden worden uitgevoerd. Bedankt om me ook steeds weer te motiveren en vooral om in mij te blijven geloven. Mijn co-promotor Hans verdient ook een prominente plaats in dit dankwoord. Bedankt voor de steeds kritische blik op mijn werk. Bedankt om me steeds te dwingen het onderste uit de kan te halen, zelfs als ikzelf dacht dat reeds bereikt te hebben. En uiteraard ook bedankt dat je deur steeds open stond en dat je elke vraag die ik ook maar had steeds met veel plezier beantwoordde. Verder zou ik ook graag alle andere leden van mijn doctoraatscommissie uitdrukkelijk bedanken voor het nalezen van mijn manuscript en hun kritische opmerkingen. Bedankt ook aan Daniel, Evy, Inneke, Jeroen, Philippe en Steven voor het nalezen van (enkele stukken van) mijn tekst en aan Tony voor het helpen bij enkele LaTeX-problemen. Ik bedank ook graag alle collega’s. Met pijn in het hart zal ik de afdeling verlaten. Ik zal de gezellige koffiepauzes en de overvloedige hoeveelheid taart missen, en natuurlijk ook jullie aanwezigheid. Bedank aan al mijn (ex-)rekencollega’s om mij soms voorrang te geven en geduld te hebben met mijn miljoenen simulaties en vervelende opspringende venstertjes. In het bijzonder wil ik nog Evy bedanken voor i ii VOORWOORD alle goede tips en om mijn probabilistische binnenisolatiestudie af te ronden zodat die toch nog (hopelijk) gepubliceerd is geraakt. Verder dank ik ook graag Patricia, Greet, Laura en Esther voor alle logistieke en administratieve ondersteuning van mijn doctoraat. En Wim en An-Heleen voor de lekkere culinaire momenten. Ook buiten de afdeling kon ik samenwerken met toffe en gemotiveerde collega’s. Bedankt Griet en Liesbeth voor de boeiende gesprekken omtrent IWT TETRA BEP2020. Ook bedankt aan alle collega’s van het WTCB, NAV, Passiefhuisplatform en KU Leuven campus Geel voor de samenwerking rond IWT VIS Renofase. Uiteraard wordt ook de financiële steun voor deze projecten sterk gewaardeerd. I also want to thank my colleagues of IEA EBC Annex 55 RAP-RETRO for the fruitful discussions and especially Payel and Valentina for the pleasant stays abroad. I definitely will miss you girls. Verder ben ik ook al mijn vrienden dankbaar voor de leuke momenten naast mijn doctoraat. Bedankt aan Annelore, Annemie, Dennis, Griet, Hans, Jochen, Jonas, Judith, Liesbeth, Lien, Line, Nathalie, Nathalie, Nicolas, Philippe, Simon, Sofie en alle partners voor de vele leuke avonden en ook de immense steun die ik van jullie kreeg in de 501 voordat ik de liefde nareisde naar het verre Antwerpen. Bedankt aan Daniel en Tony om me tijdens de laatste maanden te vergezellen bij het klimmen zodat ik toch nog een beetje kon ontspannen. Bedankt aan Steven voor de wekelijkse gezonde lunch en om steeds naar mij te luisteren. Verder ook bedankt aan wie nog niet is vermeld voor de leuke concerten, festivals, vrijgezellen, trouwfeesten, babyborrels en avonden op café. Sorry dat ik er niet altijd (lang) bij kon zijn. Ik maak het zeker goed in 2015! Als laatste zou ik graag nog mijn familie bedanken met in het bijzonder mijn ouders. Ondanks alle moeilijkheden hebben jullie mij steeds gesteund en mij alle mogelijke kansen aangereikt. Zonder jullie geloof in mij was ik niet geworden wie ik nu ben. Ook al zeg ik het niet vaak, ik kan jullie daar niet genoeg voor bedanken. Dan rest er mij alleen nog een woordje gericht aan mijn Jeroen. Schat, je hebt me ongelooflijk hard gesteund het laatste jaar. Bedankt voor alle lekkere maaltijden, de taxiritjes, de huistaakjes, de knuffels, de momenten waarop je me gewoon alleen liet, . Het klinkt misschien cliché, maar ik zou écht niet weten hoe ik zonder jou dit boek voltooid zou hebben. Maar het is me gelukt, het is ons gelukt, en dat, lieve schat, dat vergeet ik nooit. Abstract Building performance calculations often use deterministic simulations. Since many influencing parameters are generally inherently uncertain, this may lead to unreliable predictions of design impact and hence excessive deviations between design and reality. Such excessive deviations of building performances are usually undesirable: clients want guarantees that their investments have the desired impact. Hence, the overall aims of this research are (1) the development of a probabilistic robust design methodology to incorporate these uncertainties for building performance analysis and optimisation and (2) its illustrative application on the thermal design of comfortable and affordable robust low-energy dwellings. In the developed methodology, several design options can be compared based on the probability distributions of the studied performances. In order to do so, a multi-layered Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis is performed to subject all options to the same input uncertainties and hence calculate the corresponding performance distributions. An additional sensitivity analysis is applied to investigate which input uncertainties are most dominant for these distributions. Because this approach might be very time-consuming, the computational model is in this thesis optionally replaced by a much faster meta-model, without compromising the reliability. The methodology also enables an explicit evaluation of the design options for potential scenarios, such as the user type or economic evolutions, when desired. In order to numerically compare the probability distributions in view of the robust design principles, effectiveness and robustness indicators are introduced. Here, effectiveness is defined as the ability of the design option to optimise the performance, while robustness is defined as the ability to stabilise this performance for the entire range of input uncertainties. At the end of the thesis, the methodology is illustrated on the thermal design of comfortable and affordable robust low-energy dwellings. Although this application is simplified, general observations can be made. Most attention needs to be paid on the ventilation system and air tightness, since ventilation losses are more important than conductive heat losses when U-values around 0.2 W/m2K are applied for walls, roofs and floors. In order to avoid overheating in summer, sunscreens seem to be essential. Furthermore, raising awareness for the impact of user behaviour, night ventilation and the size of the dwelling seem to be as important as the application of energy efficient measures. iii Beknopte samenvatting Bij het berekenen van gebouwprestaties worden doorgaans deterministische simulaties gebruikt. Aangezien vele invloedsparameters van nature onzeker zijn, kan dit leiden tot onbetrouwbare voorspellingen van de ontwerpimpact en vandaar tot extreme verschillen tussen ontwerp en werkelijkheid. Zulke verschillen zijn gewoonlijk ongewenst: opdrachtgevers willen immers garanties dat hun investeringen de gewenste impact hebben. Daarom zijn de algemene doelstellingen van dit onderzoek (1) de ontwikkeling van een probabilistische robuuste ontwerpmethodologie om deze onzekerheden mee te nemen in de analyse en optimalisatie van gebouwprestaties en (2) haar illustratieve toepassing op het thermische ontwerp van
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