Geographia Polonica 2020, Volume 93, Issue 3, pp. 421-442 https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.0181
INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY AND SPATIAL ORGANIZATION POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES www.igipz.pan.pl www.geographiapolonica.pl
REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION OF COMMODITY TRADE OF UKRAINE WITH POLAND
Volodymyr Lazhnik1 • Serhii Puhach2 • Andrii Maister3 1 Faculty of International Relations Lesia Ukrainka Eastern European National University Volia Avenue, 13, 43000 Lutsk: Ukraine e-mail: [email protected]
2 Faculty of Geography Lesia Ukrainka Eastern European National University Volia Avenue, 13, 43000 Lutsk: Ukraine e-mail: [email protected] (corresponding author)
3 Open International University of Human Development “Ukraine” Heorhii Honhadze Street, 5, 43020 Lutsk: Ukraine e-mail: [email protected]
Abstract The purpose of this article is to examine the status of the Ukrainian-Polish bilateral trade links, to identify regional characteristics and disparities in the Ukrainian commodity trade with Poland. The place of Poland in the geographical structure of commodity exports and imports with regard to Ukrainian regions has been studied. Balance and connectivity coefficients of commodity trade with Poland have been calculated for 25 re- gions of Ukraine. Regionally influenced differentiations between the Ukrainian and Polish regional commodity trade links have been revealed. The groups of Ukrainian regions have been determined on the basis of the level of their commodity trade balance and type of external trade links with Poland.
Key words export • import • commodity trade • trade balance coefficient • trade connectivity coeffi- cient • transport linkages • Ukraine • Poland
Introduction in the context of the declaration of its Euro- pean integration aspirations after signing the The issue of expanding external trade links, Association Agreement with the EU in 2014. especially with neighbouring countries that Poland is of particular importance for Ukraine, are the EU members, is gaining importance as it is a direct neighbour and a strategically at the present stage of Ukraine’s development important trading partner that has long-term 422 Volodymyr Lazhnik • Serhii Puhach • Andrii Maister external trade links with Ukraine and actively Ukraine and Poland dated back to May 18, supports Ukraine’s European integration aspi- 1992 (Agreement… 1992), the Agreement rations. All the regions of Ukraine have estab- between the Government of Ukraine and lished stable trade links with merchandising the Government of Poland on Trade and Eco- companies and its partners in Poland. There- nomic Cooperation dated October 4, 1991 fore, the urgent task is to carry out a spatial (Agreement… 1991) and a number of other analysis of regionally influenced differen- documents. tiations and to identify the commodity trade The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, degree of connectivity of Ukrainian regions signed in 2014 and entered into force on Sep- with its partners in Poland. tember 1, 2017, is very essential for the devel- Development of external trade changes opment of Ukrainian-Polish bilateral relations. today is characterized by its geographical and It envisages the establishment of conditions commodity structure transformation under conducive to the formation of an in-depth the influence of the globalization and region- and comprehensive free trade zone between alization processes, given the absolute and Ukraine and the EU, a member of which relative advantages of the country or region is Poland. In the field of bilateral trade and in terms of commodity production. Tradition- economic cooperation, a coordinating role ally, the external trade has been approached, is given to the Intergovernmental Commis- in geographical research, primarily from sion on Economic Cooperation, founded a theoretical perspective, within the theoreti- in 2006, within which a working group cal context of the labour trade international on trade and investment has been currently division. The external trade development cur- operating. In November 2006, its first meet- rent trends have led to the application of new ing was held. The last (sixth) meeting of this theoretical models based on the combination Commission was held on April 20-21, 2017 of location and international trade theories in Warsaw (Poland 2019). from the perspective of a new economic geog- Since Ukraine gained independence raphy. The main reason for external trade in December 1991, external trade links interactions between countries and regions between the two countries have been con- is the presence of production factors deter- stantly expanding, although their dynamics mining the nature and share of offers on the have been unstable, especially in the past world market and the production specializa- 10 years, for various reasons and circumstanc- tion in domestic and international labour divi- es. Both the dynamics and intensity of Ukraini- sion systems. These factors lead to the exter- an-Polish relations over the past decades have nal trade regional differences. Therefore, it is been determined by historical, geopolitical, important to analyze the geographical fea- socio-economic and political-geographical tures of the external commodity and service prerequisites and factors for establishing trade at various spatial levels. interstate relations. Poland has always been Owing to a long history of development, one of the Ukraine’s most important strategic the Ukrainian-Polish interstate relations have and trading partners (Współpraca… 2020). been of a dynamic nature. Poland recognized The revival of the Ukrainian-Polish bilateral the independence of Ukraine on December trade cooperation in recent years is associ- 2, 1991 and established diplomatic relations ated with the liberalization of the external with it on January 8, 1992. The legal frame- trade between Ukraine and the EU. Addi- work between Ukraine and Poland totals more tionally, it coincides with the establishment than 50 interstate documents regulating the of trade links between commercial and busi- external trade links between the two coun- ness structures of the two countries, invest- tries. Among them are important documents ment and production cooperation, and the such as the Treaty of Good Neighbourhood, expansion of the cross-border and inter- Friendly Relations and Cooperation between regional cooperation in accordance with
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 Regional differentiation of commodity trade of Ukraine with Poland 423 the provisions establishing a deep and com- world countries) and 3.1% (the 9-th place prehensive free trade area. Ukraine today accordingly) (External… 2019). has the most developed network of the inter- At the same time, Ukraine was for Poland regional cooperation with Poland, positively one of the key partners among the countries resulting in the development of their bilateral of the entire post-Soviet space, and the sec- trade. Almost all the regions of Ukraine and ond only to the Russian Federation. Ukraine the voivodeships of Poland concluded agree- was in the 15th place among the largest ments on the interregional cooperation. Most importers of Polish goods (2.02% of the total) of the Polish partners are Ukrainian regions: in 2018. In terms of export of Polish goods, Lviv, Odesa, Ivano-Frankivsk, Volyn and Vin- Ukraine was in the 20th place (with a share nytsia. Subcarpathian, Lublin, Łódź, Silesian of 1.13%) among other world countries. and Masovian voivodeships are those Polish Simultaneously, Ukraine was in the 7th place voivodeships that have more Ukrainian part- among the countries; with the largest posi- ner regions than others (Popova, Radchenko, tive balance for Poland – more than 2.1 bil- & Yakushenko, 2016). lion USD in the bilateral commodity trade Despite the positive dynamics of trade (Współpraca… 2020). links, a noticeable asymmetry is observed in Ukrainian-Polish trade relations. Literature review While Poland is one of the main trade part- ners for Ukraine, Ukraine is not among the Works of scholarly research, written by Krug- leading countries in the Polish external trade. man (1991), Fujita, Krugman and Venables Poland’s external trade is oriented towards (1999), Tinbergen (1962), Anderson and the EU and developed countries. As of 2018, Wincoop (2003), Porter (1998), just to name Poland was the second largest trading part- a few, are considered important for study- ner of Ukraine in the EU (with a specific grav- ing international trade theory and for the ity of 14.7%), as well as the fourth trading formation of a “new economic geography”. partner in the world (with a specific gravity So, Krugman (1991), Fujita et al. (1999) per- of 6.2%) in terms of export-import operations ceive the new economic geography model after the Russian Federation, China and Ger- as the tool combining elements of tradition- many (Współpraca … 2020). In 2018, Poland al regional science and new trade theory. ranked the second among the countries It has been designed for the analysis of the of the world after the Russian Federation geospatial structure peculiarities and of the (7% of Ukrainian global exports and 16.2% degree of concentration and differentiation of Ukrainian exports to the EU) in the geo- of country and regions’ external trade links. graphical structure of Ukrainian commodity Simultaneously, Aguirre (1999), Dickson exports. As regards the geographical struc- (2014), Linetsky, Tarasov, and Kovalev (2017), ture of commodity imports, Poland ranked Royles (2017), Zhiryaeva (2016) and so forth the fifth in 2018 (External… 2019). According assessed trade links among regions and sub- to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the national units based on the new economic trend towards an increase in bilateral trade geography conceptual provisions. Their with Poland continued in 2019. In the first studies looked at the factors that determine half of 2019, Poland came out in the 1st place present-day external (trade) ties between the in the geographical structure of Ukrainian world countries and the regions, as well as exports and the 4th place in the geographi- examining commodity flows and regional dif- cal structure of Ukrainian imports. A similar ferentiations at the interstate level, both in situation existed in trade in services, where commodity and geographical structure and Poland’s share in Ukrainian exports and in terms of shares. imports of services was slightly lower and The application of theoretical ideas pro- amounted to 3.0% (the 6th place among posed by Krugman (1991) allows us to prove
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 424 Volodymyr Lazhnik • Serhii Puhach • Andrii Maister that the dominance of large cities and the in the process of interaction the participants industrialized regions of the country in pro- in world economic relations form global pro- duction characterize the geographical struc- duction chains of new value creation and net- ture of countries’ external trade. This leads work structures at the level of firms, TNCs, to regional disproportions and differences regions and states. Scientists such as Coe, in the distribution of external and internal Dicken and Hess (2008), Kaplinsky and Mor- trade factor flows, which have become impor- ris (2003), Dicken, Kelly, Olds, and Yeung tant objects of the geographical research (2001), Mahutga (2014), Parrilli, Nadvi and in order to identify the features and directions Yeung (2013), Peck (2003) and others made of the geographical structure of external important contribution to the development trade transformation. of theories of global connections, chains Gravitational models of trade interac- creating new value, and global production tions among countries and regions within the networks. According to Dicken (2015), the framework of the new economic geography, modern global economy is transformed proposed by Tinbergen (1962), Anderson and by the means of operation of global produc- Wincoop (2003), McCallum (1995) and oth- tion networks with the participation of TNCs, ers, make possible to assess bilateral trade states as well as stakeholders and technolo- flows among countries and regions, consider- gies. P. Dicken, studying the geographical fea- ing the gross regional product of two coun- tures of the global economy, investigated the tries or regions and the distances between structure and dynamics of global production them. Porter (1998) attempted to combine networks, described the role of TNCs in the neoclassical competitiveness theories with world economy and trade and explained why the theory of external economic activ- they are a barometer of global economic ity of individual regions and firms within change and determine the direction of mod- the country. According to Porter’s theory ern international trade flows (Dicken, 2015). of competitiveness, the spatial structure P. Dicken showed how global production of external trade is significantly differentiated chains form new value chains and network due to intense competition on the domes- structures and relationships between TNCs tic market of a country, which determines and nations. the level of its regional participation in the Therefore, studies of external trade are external trade, depending on the availability becoming increasingly relevant from the of competitive advantages. perspective of a regional approach allowing The classical theory of international trade us to assess the rationality of its geographi- states that in the context of increasing glo- cal structure, since the prospects of external balization, modern foreign trade relations trade links are directly related to the eco- are liberal in nature through the intensifica- nomic restructuring of national economies tion of transnational corporations (TNCs) and in the context of globalization and suprana- the internationalization of production, which tional regionalization (primarily with the EU). spreads in the form of horizontal and vertical The focus of research are the spatial features specialization in foreign trade. As Hummels, of the concentration and differentiation Rapoport and Yi (1998) point out, vertical of external trade links among individual coun- specialization is formed when a country uses tries and their regions, identified under their imported intermediate goods and services territorial or organizational nature. for further production of export goods. This The scientific literature survey concern- concept is based on the idea of establish- ing the issues surrounding Ukrainian-Polish ing consistent global ties between countries ties indicates a significant interest of both for the production of final goods. According Ukrainian and Polish researchers in study- to many scholars, the assertive role of global ing the Ukrainian-Polish problems in bilateral connections is manifested in the fact that cooperation over various fields. Dominant
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 Regional differentiation of commodity trade of Ukraine with Poland 425 research topics have become the basis Many scientists, among them L. Alek- of Ukrainian-Polish bilateral relations in the siievets, M. Aleksiievets and Ilchuk (2015), economic sphere and interstate political con- Borshchevsky (2007, 2009), Duhiienko and tacts that have been raised in many publica- Shevchuk (2017), Korchun (2013), Makar tions, mainly with an emphasis on identifying (2016), Mazaraki and Melnyk (2010), Zelich the dynamics and patterns of commodity and and Titarenko (2016), studied various aspects service exports and imports at the interstate of Ukrainian-Polish trade and economic ties. level, challenges and opportunities of the However, despite a large number of scattered bilateral economic and cross-border coopera- scientific publications, the comprehensive tion. However, the issues revealing the spatial economic and geographical studies on the features of bilateral trade links at the regional problems of geospatial analysis of Ukraini- level have been poorly covered. an-Polish trade ties in Ukrainian geographic The analysis of the Ukrainian-Polish trade scientific domain have not been thoroughly and economic cooperation at the interstate studied yet. level over the past decades, as well as key The topic of Ukrainian-Polish interstate aspects of their cooperation in the light of the trade and economic cooperation for both European integration processes and the par- Polish and international researchers has not ticipation of both states in these processes become a priority and as of yet has a lim- have been dominant in the Ukrainian sci- ited view of Ukraine. Polish researchers entific literature. Articles by Chorna (2016), mainly analyze the conceptual foundations and by Martynova and Chorna (2018), are of Ukrainian-Polish interstate ties in the politi- devoted to the analysis of main areas of the cal sphere, while the trade and economic trade and economic cooperation between sphere is still not sufficiently considered. the two countries during 2004-2016 period, External trade ties between the two countries the dynamics of its main indicators and the are mainly considered in the context of inter- specifics of the commodity structure of trade state cooperation and strategic partnership flows. The state and prospects of the external from the standpoint of analyzing the dynam- trade between Poland and Ukraine for the ics of commodity and service trade, identi- period from 2007 up to 2014 in the context fying the characteristics of the commodity of identifying common trends in the devel- structure of trade, cooperation challenges opment of external trade transactions are and opportunities. At the same time, geo- reflected on in the article written by Rabo- spatial aspects of Ukrainian-Polish trade links szuk & Szymańska (2016). In other publica- have not been sufficiently analyzed. tions of Ukrainian scientists, the main areas Articles written by Ambroziak and Błasz- of cooperation on an inter-regional and the czuk-Zawiła (2016), Baluk (2018), Wosiek state basis, as well as main trends and pros- and Kata (2019), Komornicki (2009a, 2009b, pects for the development of trade links 2010), Kalita (2008), Kalita, Puchalska, Bar- between the border territories of Ukraine and wińska-Małajowicz (2007), Powęska (2016), Poland are examined within the framework Jakimowicz (2004) are notable among Polish of the Carpathian Euroregion and the Eurore- scientific publications addressing the certain gion “Bug” (Osadcha & Petrova, 2017; Popova issues of Polish-Ukrainian trade ties. Thus, et al., 2016, and so on). Babets, Borshchevsky Baluk (2018), considering the formal and and Mihushchenko (2011) reflected upon material dimensions of the strategic partner- parameters of the external economic activity ship between Poland and Ukraine, focuses asymmetry in the Ukrainian-Polish coopera- on the economic dimensions of employees’ tion for 2010, as well as the disproportional- quality along with political dimensions, and ity of the commodity exchange in the inter- analyzes the share of the Ukrainian-Polish regional cooperation of Ukraine’s regions and external trade for the period from 2010 up to the Poland’s voivodships. 2014. Baluk points to a significant increase
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 426 Volodymyr Lazhnik • Serhii Puhach • Andrii Maister in the bilateral trade, indicating that Poland regional differentiation and concentration is one of Ukraine’s main trading partners. have been, as yet, insufficiently analyzed. Kalita, Pukhalska and Barwińska-Małajowicz For that reason, it has been an urgent task (2008) analyzed the share of Polish-Ukraini- to analyze the commodity trade between an bilateral commodity trade, its dynamics the Ukraine and Poland’s regions (within and structure for the period from 1992 up to a regional approach) from the socio-geo- 2006. Moreover, they found out the trade graphical point of view. These above men- importance in the cross-border coopera- tioned considerations have led to the choice tion among the Polish and Ukrainian border of the topic of our study. regions. Particularly noteworthy are works written Materials and methods by Komornicki (2009a,b, 2010) and others, where a regional approach was applied to the The statistical data for the period from analysis of external trade in the context of the 2001 up to 2018, released by the State Statis- Poland’s regional policy objectives. In particu- tics Service of Ukraine, were used to analyze lar, Komornicki (2010), based on a regional the Ukrainian-Polish trade links and to deter- approach, analyzes the role of commodity mine the main trends in their development. trade with the border regions of the eastern In particular, to identify the features of spa- neighbouring countries, including Ukraine, tial differentiation of the regional distribution in the development of economy of Poland’s of these relations, the official data of regional voivodeships and counties. Komornicki focus- statistical departments of the Ukrainian es on the uniqueness of commodity trade 24 regions and the city of Kyiv have been with neighbouring Ukrainian regions for the used, posted on the websites of these depart- socio-economic development of the Lublin ments in the section “Geographical structure and Subcarpathian voivodeships. of foreign trade in goods” (Area… 2019). The spatial analysis of trade links was car- The following basic indicators were analyzed ried out in the works of other Polish scientists in this article: volumes of export and import, too. In particular, Szejgiec and Komornicki foreign trade turnover and balance of com- (2015) provided a spatial analysis of Poland’s modity trade between Ukrainian regions and export ties with foreign countries, where Poland in 2018. At the same time, statistics a certain attention was given to Ukraine (CIS on the territories of the Autonomous Republic countries). Based on a regional approach of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, those and within the context of Ukrainian-Polish parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, relations, Musiałowicz (2017) analyzed as well as other regions that are not con- changes in the share of merchandise exports trolled by Ukraine, have been left out. Addi- and imports of the Ukraine’s regions, tionally, the Ukrainian-Polish trade in services as well as in trade relations with Poland has been not included in the current paper, as of 2016 in comparison to 2015. Moreover, since, interstate trade operations account for Musiałowicz determined the place of Poland 7.3% of their total volume (according to the in the external trade of Ukraine’s regions. State Statistics Service of Ukraine). In 2018, Thus, the analysis of scientific publications trade in services between Ukraine and on the subject of Ukrainian-Polish trade links Poland was only 546.3 million USD (State… reveals the proper national level of trade 2019). Hence, interstate trade in services links between Ukraine and Poland. However, within the regional context requires a sepa- at the regional level, this issue, from the view- rate detailed study. point of economic geography, has not been In order to conduct the analysis of the adequately studied in both Ukrainian and regional differentiation of commodity trade Polish scientific literature. The geographi- between Ukraine and Poland, a selection cal aspects of bilateral trade links and their of statistical indicators and procedures
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 Regional differentiation of commodity trade of Ukraine with Poland 427 for their interpretation have been prepared. volume of exports than imports, the negative At the initial stage, the Ukrainian-Polish exter- value shows the greater volume of imports nal commodity trade dynamics, covering the than exports, and 0 (zero) reflects the period 2001-2018, has been analyzed, as well equality of exports and imports. as determining its contemporary product The trade influence or trade and eco- structure and the growth rate of exports, nomic connectivity coefficients are very often imports, balance and external trade by use used in geographical studies to measure the of statistical regression and correlation analy- complementarity of trade links. They are ses. We have used a probabilistic polynomial calculated as the ratio value of the mutual model to find the dependent variables in the trade turnover volume to the total GDP dynamics of commodity trade indicators of interacting countries or regions. However, by the following formula: these coefficients do not adequately reflect the regional differentiation of trade links. y = b + b x + b x2 + b x3 + b x4 (1) i o 1 2 3 4 For a regional external commodity trade
Unknown parameters like b0, b1, b2, b3, analysis, it is more advisable to apply a meth- b4, characterizing certain groups of factors, odology that is based on the criteria for the affecting the commodity trade have been connectivity and symmetry of trade links. calculated using the least square method. In our study, the trade connectivity coefficient Any verification of the expository power of the (Kzv), whose calculation algorithm was pro- polynomial model, chosen herein, allows posed by Vaniushkin (2004), has been used. explaining the specific dynamics of trade It is more correct, since it takes into account flows and the general axes in this dynamics the ratio of the share of exports and imports under study. Additionally, the correlation anal- of a region in a particular country in the total ysis technique has been employed to show the volumes of exports and imports of the studied reliance of the share of trade flows on the vol- region. We calculated this coefficient using ume of the regional gross product produced the formula (3): and to test the expository power of the regres- Kzv = (X / X ) : (M / M ) (3) sion model in its entirety. To test the statisti- mn m nm m cal significance of the correlation coefficients, where: Student’s criterion (t-test) was used. Kzv – means the trade connectivity coefficient An important external trade factor is of the m-region with the n-country; reflected in a balance coefficient revealing Xmn – exports from the m-region to the n-country; the ratio of export and import flows among Xm – the aggregate exports of the m-region; the regions of Ukraine. It is calculated as the Mnm – imports from the n-country to the m-region; ratio of the external trade balance to the total Mm – the total imports of the m-region. trade turnover by the following formula: If there is an asymmetry in the bilateral Kzb = S / T (2) i i i commodity trade, various versions of the where: connectivity coefficient Kzv are possible,
Kzbi – the balance coefficient of the commodity which indicate a certain degree of depend- trade between the i-region of Ukraine and ence of each region on country n (in our Poland; case, Poland) both in commodity export and
Si – the balance of commodity trade of a region import. The trade connectivity coefficient Kzv, of Ukraine with Poland; which is equal to or greater than one, indi-
Ti – the volume of external commodity trade cates the trade connectivity in region m with turnover of the i-th region with Poland. country n (in our case, Poland) and a high
The value of the Kzbi balance coefficient degree of focus on trade links with trading of the commodity trade can range from 1 partners in country n. When the coefficient to -1. The positive value reflects the greater is less than one, three cases are possible due
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 428 Volodymyr Lazhnik • Serhii Puhach • Andrii Maister to the imbalance in trade among the studied allow us to assess the dominant trade flows regions and the partner country (Matveeva, and the asymmetry of the trade links, as well 2007). as to classify regions by the type of their trade In the first case, the share of exports from links with Poland. To perform calculations, the m-region to the n-country is much greater the share of commodity export and import than the average volume of its exports to all of the Ukrainian regions in bilateral trade of the countries with which it trades. Then, with Poland has been used, based on the such a region depends upon the n-importer, data of regional statistical offices (State… but there is no feedback due to the significant 2019) and on the data on Poland’s external size of the n-country’s market. In a formalized trade since 2018 accessed from the website form, it looks as follows: of the Ministry of Enterprise and Technology of Poland (Ocena… 2019). Xmn >> Xm / Nxm (4) where: The current state of commodity N – means the number of those countries xm trade between Ukraine to which the m-region exports goods. and Poland In the second case, the n-country’s share The analysis of external trade links between in the m-region exports is much smaller than Ukraine and Poland since the beginning the m-region share in the n-country’s imports. of the 21st century showed that the external Then, the n-country depends on the exports commodity trade turnover was increasing of the m-region, but the m-region does not systematically before the global economic depend upon the trade with the n-country. crisis (2008-2009). According to the State In a formalized form, it looks like: Statistics Service of Ukraine, it amounted to 888.3 million USD in 2001, and reached (X / X ) << (M / M ) (5) mn m nm n 6, 618.6 million USD in 2008 (State… 2019). where: In subsequent years, the bilateral external
Mn – means the n-country’s aggregate import. trade dynamics was unstable. Therefore, in 2009, the share of external trade sharply In the third case, the exports from the decreased to 3,383.4 million USD that is by m-region to the n-country are less than the almost 2 times. The trade turnover steadily average volume of its exports to all the part- increased in the following years and amount- ner-countries, and imports from the m-region ed to 6,616.5 million USD in 2013, but there to the n-country are less than the average vol- was a recession again in 2014-2015. It was ume of the n-country’s imports from all of the due to the crisis in the Ukrainian economy trading partner countries. This shows the combined with the Russian military opera- independence of the m-region and the n-part- tions in the Crimea and in Donbas. In 2015, ner-country from each other in the commod- total trade turnover with Poland amounted to ity trade. In a formalized form, it looks like: 4,301.4 million USD. However, in subsequent years, despite such factors as the incomplete X < (X / N ) i M < (M / N ) (6) mn m xm nm n mn processes of reforming the Ukrainian econ- where: omy, the crisis caused by political instability
Nmn – means the number of countries from which in Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea and mili- the n-country imports goods. tary operations in the East, the trade between the two countries showed an increase in total Computational results, concerning the trade. In 2018, the share of trade between connectivity coefficient (Kzv) of trade links Ukraine and Poland reached 6,899.2 mil- among the Ukrainian and Polish regions lion USD (Fig. 1A), which is the highest indi- according to the technique mentioned above, cator for all the years of the Ukrainian-Polish
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 Regional differentiation of commodity trade of Ukraine with Poland 429 trade cooperation (State… 2019). This testi- tion of raw materials, industrial and agricul- fies to the intensification of Ukrainian-Polish tural goods, their value on the world market, trade links, based on the implementation the volume of transport, etc. Similar models of the provisions of the Association Agree- of the trend, based on the polynomial func- ment between Ukraine and the EU, and the tion, are also traced in the dynamics of vol- dominance of commodity trade between umes of commodity export deliveries from Ukraine and Poland. Thus, Poland has always Ukraine to Poland (R2 = 0.85) and imports remained one of the main trading partners from Poland to Ukraine (R2 = 0.81) (Fig. 1B of Ukraine throughout the entire period of its and 1C). However, the trend in the commod- existence as an independent state. ity turnover balance over an almost 20-year Figure 1 shows the trends in the dynam- period is characterized by a significantly low ics of such indicators of trade in goods determination coefficient (R2 = 0.56) (Fig. 1D). between Ukraine and Poland in 2001-2018 This shows the influence of several groups period, as well as the volume of foreign trade, of various factors on trade between the two exports, imports and trade balance. The com- countries, which led to instability and sig- mon trend in the dynamics of the Ukrainian- nificant fluctuations in the volume of mutu- Polish external trade for the period 2001- al deliveries of goods, especially in last 2018 can be described by a fourth-degree 10 years. polynomial model with a sufficiently high Since the beginning of the 21st century, determination coefficient (R2 = 0.84) (Fig. 1A). the common trend of the Ukrainian-Polish This model reflects the impact on commodity bilateral trade links has coincided with the trade of such factors as the volume of produc- overall trends of the Ukrainian external
A B y = 0.9182x4- 33.911x3+ 381.01x2- 936.82x + 1576.7 [mln USD] 4 3 2 R² = 0,84 [mln USD] y = 0.2976x - 11.063x + 128.16x - 326.67x + 728.46 8,000 R² = 0,85 7,000 3,500 6,000 3,000 5,000 2,500 4,000 2,000 3,000 1,500 2,000 1,000 1,000 500 0 0 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017 2016 2018 2017 2018 Year Year foreign trade turnover polynomial trend exports polynomial trend C D 4 3 2 [mln USD] y = 0.6207x - 22.84x + 252.85x - 610.15x + 848.2 R² = 0,81 4,500 4,000 y = -0.3213x4+ 11.785x3- 124.69x2+ 283.48x - 119,74 3,500 [mln USD] R² = 0,56 3,000 500 2,500 0 2,000 -500 1,500 -1,000 1,000 -1,500 500 -2,000 0 -2,500 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2007 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017 2016 2017 2018 2018 Year Year import polynomial trend balance of trade polynomial trend Figure 1. Dynamics of indicators of the Ukrainian-Polish bilateral commodity for the period 2001-2018: A – commodity circulation; B – commodity export; C – commodity import; D – commodity trade balance Source: Based on data from State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2019).
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 430 Volodymyr Lazhnik • Serhii Puhach • Andrii Maister commodity trade with other countries. Thus, goods grew significantly. This testifies to the for the 2001-2018 period, the coefficient structural expansion of the Ukrainian com- of pair correlation between the share of com- modity exports to Poland, and to the involve- modity exports from Ukraine to other coun- ment of Ukrainian enterprises in the closer tries and the share of Ukrainian commodity cooperation with the Polish ones, resulting export to Poland amounted to 0.78 (tst= 5.06; in the export structure improvement and its t16; 0.05 = 2.12) and 0.89 (tst = 7.37; t16; 0.05 = 2.12) raw material share reduction. Ferrous met- for commodity imports. Therefore, Ukrainian- als (14.9% of the total volume of merchan- Polish trade links, as well as the trade links dise exports to Poland), ores, slag, and ash with other world countries, since the begin- (11.8%) dominated in the commodity struc- ning of the 21st century, have had mostly the ture of Ukrainian exports to Poland in 2018. upward trend, however from time to time with A significant share in the export of Ukrain- varying degrees of difficulties. Strong positive ian commodities to Poland is also occupied dynamics in the Ukrainian-Polish commodity by electric machines (11.6%), wood and wood trade was seen in the years 2001-2008, 2010- products (8.2%), furniture (6.9%), ferrous 2012 and 2016-2018 (Fig. 1), whereas there metal products (3.9%), fats and oils of animal was a significant decline in 2009 due to glob- or vegetable origin (3.9%) and other products al economic crisis, and decline in the years (External… 2019). In total, low value-added 2014-2015 brought about by the fighting commodities dominated in the structure in the East of Ukraine. of export deliveries from Ukraine to Poland. Commodity export-import operations At the same time, as in previous years, tech- (2001-2018) between the two countries were nological high value-added commodities with characterized as the commodity external trade a high diversification level became the largest with a steady negative balance for Ukraine, share of Polish imports to Ukraine in 2018. except for the period of 2004. The worst situa- Key goods imported from Poland to Ukraine tion was in 2008, when it reached -1,942.0 mil- in 2018 were as follows: plastics and polymer lion USD (Fig. 1D). In the subsequent years, the materials (8.8% of the total share of imports negative balance was unstable and in 2013 of Polish goods to Ukraine), electric machines amounted to -1,520.9 million USD. However, (8.6%), mineral fuel, oil and products of its distil- later on, the trend tended to be more positive lation (8,3%), nuclear reactors, boilers, machin- for Ukraine, and in 2018, its negative bal- ery (8.2%), ground transportation means, ance totalled -384.7 million USD (Fig. 1D). except for railway (7.8%) and other goods This was due to the growth of exports accom- (External… 2019). The Polish share of imports, panied by a decrease in the growth rate of such goods as copper and copper-based of imports, which became the general trend alloy products, nickel and nickel-based alloy of Ukraine’s external trade after the socio- products, other base metals, aircraft, ships, political events of 2013-2014, despite the crisis alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks and vinegar in the Ukrainian economy. and others, significantly increased. The structure of the Ukrainian commod- ity export to Poland in recent years has Results and discussion not undergone significant changes. In par- ticular, in 2018 relative to 2017, there was A significant spatial differentiation and great an increase in exports for many commodity variability in the magnitude of trade turno- items. The commodity scope of the delivery, ver are present in the geographical struc- consisting of ferrous metal products, min- ture of external commodity trade among the eral fuels, oil and products of its distillation, Ukrainian and Polish regions. Development inorganic chemistry products, vegetables, disproportions in the Ukrainian-Polish interre- products of the milling and cereal industry, gional cooperation are reflected in a notice- silk, cotton, railway locomotives and other able asymmetry in the external economic
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 Regional differentiation of commodity trade of Ukraine with Poland 431 activity parameters in the Ukraine’s econom- (mainly mining-metallurgical products) was ic cooperation with Poland. This is primar- approximately 3.5 times as high as the value ily manifested in attracting to the commod- of imports from Poland (Fig. 2). Kyiv, in its ity trade exchange mainly western regions turn, is the main importer of Polish commodi- and economically highly developed regions ties (Fig. 3), owing to the fact that the Ukrain- of Ukraine, in a negative balance in com- ian capital accounts for more than 31% of all modity external trade, in low investment the Polish commodity imports to Ukraine activity, and in an ineffective export structure (External… 2019). of Ukrainian regions. The analysis of statistical data has shown Poland is the largest trading partner and that there is a direct dependence of the investor for the western regions of Ukraine, turnover between the regions of Ukraine and while other regions has a significantly lower Poland on their population, because the pair level of the trade cooperation with Polish wise correlation coefficient is 0.90 (tst = 9.90; partners. Therefore, in 2018, the largest t23; 0.05 = 2.07). The largest volumes of trade share of commodity trade turnover decreased turnover with Poland per capita of the region in the city of Kyiv (1,445.8 million USD), whilst in 2018 were in Kyiv (490 USD), Lviv (435 USD), Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Ternopil, Donetsk Ternopil (383 USD), Volyn (292 USD) and and Volyn regions had slightly smaller shares Dnipropetrovsk regions (286 USD). of commodity turnover with Polish voivode- In 2018, the smallest share of commodity ships. At the same time, the value of exports trade with Poland was in Kirovohrad (20.8 mil- to Poland from the Dnipropetrovsk region lion USD), in Kherson, Chernivtsi, Chernihiv,
Annexed and occupied territories BELARUS Volyn Name of region Boundaries 2 13 State border 1 Region border Chernihiv 13 2 9 Volyn Rivne Sumy city of Kyiv
POLAND Zhytomyr 1 1 5 2 7 16 4 Kyiv 2 Lviv 2 Poltava Kharkiv Ternopil A Cherkasy 4 Luhansk 4 Khmelnytskyi SLOVAKI 4 15 1 Ivano- VinnVinnytsiaytsia Frankivsk 4 Kirovohrad Transcarpathian Chernivtsi Dnipropetrovsk MOLDOVA Donetsk HUNGARY 23 7 ROMANIA 8 Poland's share in region's Mykolaiv 4 exports [%] Zaporizhzhia 20.1-50.0 Poland's rank in Odesa Kherson 10.1-20.0 2 region's export 5.1-10.0 Sea of Azov 0.0-5.0 RUSSIAN Black Sea Autonomous Export of goods from Poland [millions USD] Republic of Crimea FEDERATION
Sevastopol
0 100 200 km 0-20.0 20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0 100.1-300.0 300.1-715.0 Figure 2. Regional differentiation of exports of Ukrainian goods to Poland in 2018 Source: Based on data from State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2019).
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 432 Volodymyr Lazhnik • Serhii Puhach • Andrii Maister
Annexed and occupied territories BELARUS Volyn Name of region Boundaries 4 9 State border 1 5 Region border Chernihiv 4 5 Volyn Rivne Sumy city of Kyiv
POLAND Zhytomyr 1 1 3 9 6 3 5 Kyiv 3 Lviv 3 Poltava Kharkiv 4 Ternopil Cherkasy Luhansk Khmelnytskyi 6 SLOVAKIA 8 7 10 Ivano- VinnVinnytsiaytsia 3 Frankivsk Kirovohrad Transcarpathian Chernivtsi Dnipropetrovsk MOLDOVA Donetsk HUNGARY ROMANIA 6 6 9 Poland's share in region's Mykolaiv 8 imports [%] Zaporizhzhia 20.1-50.0 Poland's rank in Odesa Kherson 10.1-20.0 2 region's import 5.1-10.0 Sea of Azov 0.0-5.0 RUSSIAN Black Sea Autonomous Import of goods from Poland [millions USD] Republic of Crimea FEDERATION
Sevastopol
0100200 km 0-20.0 20.1-50.0 50.1-100.0 100.1-300.0 300.1-1000.0 1000.1-1135.0 Figure 3. Regional differentiation of imports of goods from Poland to Ukraine in 2018 Source: Based on data from State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2019).
Luhansk, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Poltava regions large trade turnover with Poland due to well- (Fig. 2 and 3) because of their low socio-eco- established trade relations with Polish part- nomic development level. The same regions ners and geographical proximity to Poland. are characterized by the smallest volumes According to the geographical structure of trade per capita (for example, in Luhansk of commodity export deliveries from Ukraine region this indicator is only 17.3 USD). to Poland, the leaders by their volumes The Ukrainian-Polish commodity trade are the most developed Ukrainian regions turnover is characterized by direct depend- (Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kyiv), accounting ence on the share of their gross regional for more than 41% of Ukrainian exports, and product, since their pair correlation coeffi- Lviv, Ternopil and Volyn regions, having close cient is 0.82 (tst = 6.74; t23; 0.05 = 2.07). Thus, historical ties with Poland (Fig. 2). In addi- in 2018 Kyiv was the leader in terms of gross tion to it, Poland is the important commodity regional product production (UAH 699 bil- export market for many Ukrainian regions. So, lion) among the regions of Ukraine (State… in 2018, Poland took the 1st place among other 2019) and, accordingly, the leader among the world countries in the geographical structure regions in terms of trade turnover with Poland of the commodity exports from Dnipropetro- (External… 2019). Similar positions are occu- vsk, Lviv, Rivne and Ternopil regions, the 2nd pied by Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv and Lviv regions. place – as regards Volyn, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, The exceptions are Ternopil and Volyn regions Luhansk and Khmelnytskyi regions, the 4th with relatively smaller volumes of gross – as regards Donetsk, Transcarpathian, Ivano- regional product. However, they have a fairly -Frankivsk, Kherson, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 Regional differentiation of commodity trade of Ukraine with Poland 433 regions (Fig. 2). The proximity of the geo- industries and mechanical engineering graphical location relative to Poland is sig- to Poland. The second position was occupied nificant for the six western Ukrainian regions by the Donetsk region (288.4 million USD), (gravity factor), which account for more than which supplied Poland with significant vol- 34% of Ukrainian export deliveries to Poland. umes of products from the metallurgical and In particular, the Polish share in the geo- chemical industries and mechanical engi- graphical structure of exports from Ternopil neering. The largest negative trade balance region was 49.0%, from Lviv – 26.9%, from in commodity trade with Poland (-822.7 mil- Volyn – 21.1%, from Rivne – 19.1%, from Zhy- lion USD) in 2018 was in the city of Kyiv (the tomyr – 11.7% in 2018 (External… 2019). main importer of Polish commodities) as well The smallest volumes of Ukrainian goods as in the Kyiv, Lviv and Sumy regions. exported to Poland occur in Kirovohrad, Cher- The estimation of the bilateral commodity nivtsi, Sumy, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Luhansk trade balance coefficient (Kzbi), in the context regions (Fig. 2). The share of Poland in the of the Ukrainian regions, has shown that the geographical structure of commodity exports Volyn, Poltava, Chernihiv, Chernivtsi, Khmel- from such Ukrainian regions as Mykolaiv, Pol- nytskyi and Ternopil regions are character- tava, Sumy and Kirovohrad is 1-2% of total ized by a relatively balanced trade, however exports. with a slight predominance of exports over
In terms of total Polish commodity imports, imports (Kzbi is close to 0). The balance coef- the leading importers are Kyiv (1,134.2 mil- ficient of the Ukrainian external commod- lion USD in 2018), and Ukrainian regions: Lviv ity trade with Poland reveals that the most (587.2 million USD), Kyiv (358.7 million USD), unbalanced trade relations take place in the Dnipropetrovsk, Ternopil and Volyn. The Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and smallest share of Polish commodity imports Vinnytsia regions with a sharp predominance was noted in Kirovohrad, Kherson, Chernivt- of exports over imports (Kzbi from +0.81 up to si, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Luhansk regions +0.38). At the same time, there is an imbal- (Fig. 3). In 2018, the share of Poland was larg- ance in the Ukrainian commodity trade with er in the total volume of commodity imports Poland in the city of Kyiv, and the Kyiv, Sumy of such western regions as Ternopil (42.7%), and Mykolaiv regions (Fig. 4). As far as the Lviv (21.7%), Rivne (19.1%), Chernivtsi (12.5%), Ukrainian regions are concerned, the bal- Khmelnytskyi (11.2%) and Volyn (11.1%). ance coefficient in the trade with Poland, Simultaneously, the Poland’s share in the total due to the significant negative trade balance, volume of imports to such areas as Mykolaiv, ranges from -0.39 (Mykolaiv region) and up to Donetsk, Poltava, Sumy and Kirovohrad was -0.68 (Kiev region). less than 2% (External… 2019). The connectivity coefficient (Kzv) (formula Disparity in the commodity exchange 3) of trade links between Polish and Ukrainian is observed among Ukrainian regions and regions shows that thirteen Ukrainian regions Polish voivodeships as partners of the inter- have the close bilateral commodity trade con- regional cooperation. This reduces the oppor- nectivity, since the value of the coefficient Kzv tunities for an increased utilization of the eco- is greater than 1. nomic potential of the Ukrainian regions and Particularly, this coefficient is higher leads to a number of problems when using than 1.5 in five Ukrainian regions (Fig. 5). the available capabilities of their economic This is mainly due to the export dependence complexes. Seventeen regions of Ukraine had of these regions on the commodity trade with a positive balance of commodity trade with Poland. The highest level of the trade connec- Poland in 2018. The largest surplus (510.7 mil- tivity with Poland was recorded in the Donetsk lion USD) was for the Dnipropetrovsk region (Kzv = 4.4), Dnipropetrovsk (Kzv = 2.4), due to the supply of iron and manganese ore, Luhansk (Kzv = 1.9), Volyn (Kzv = 1.9) and products of the metallurgical and chemical Kherson (Kzv = 1.7) regions. This is due to the
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 434 Volodymyr Lazhnik • Serhii Puhach • Andrii Maister
Annexed and occupied territories BELARUS Volyn Name of region Boundaries State border Region border Chernihiv Volyn Rivne Sumy Zhytomyr
POLAND city of Kyiv
Lviv Kyiv Poltava Ternopil Kharkiv Khmelnytskyi Cherkasy Luhansk Ivano- VinnVinnytsiaytsia SLOVAKIA Frankivsk Kirovohrad Transcarpathian Dnipropetrovsk Chernivtsi Donetsk MOLDOVA
HUNGARY ROMANIA Mykolaiv Zaporizhzhia Balance coefficient of foreign trade with Poland Odesa Kherson 0.61-0.90 0.31-0.60 0.00-0.30 Sea of Azov -0.30-0.00 RUSSIAN -0.60-(-0.31) Black Sea Autonomous Republic of -0.90-(-0.61) Crimea FEDERATION
Sevastopol
0100200 km
Figure 4. Spatial differentiation of the balance coefficient of foreign trade of Ukrainian regions with Poland in 2018 Source: Based on data from State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2019) significant predominance of powerful com- comparison according to the determined modity export flows from the mining, metal- criteria by use of the formulas (4-6) allowed lurgical, chemical and engineering industries to distinguish the types of regions of Ukraine from these regions over the imported com- according to the characteristics of their com- modity flows from Poland. A relatively high modity trade with Poland. At the same time, coefficient of commodity trade links with the balance factors of commodity trade and Poland (Kzv from 1.5 to 1.2) in 2018 is typical Poland’s share in the region’s commodity for the Ivano-Frankivsk, ZLviv, Transcarpathi- trade were also considered. The Ukrainian an, Zhytomyr, Odesa, Kirovohrad and Zapor- regions can be divided according to the fol- izhzhia regions. The lowest values of the coef- lowing characteristics: (1) region’s depend- ficient of the trade-related cooperation with ence upon exports/imports with Poland; (2) Poland are registered in Mykolaiv (Kzv= 0.15), Poland’s dependence upon export/import Sumy, Chernivtsi and Kyiv regions, as well commodity deliveries to/from the region; (3) as the city of Kiev (Fig. 5). These regions are absence of the trade dependence upon the characterized by a significant import depend- part of the region; (4) absence of the trade ence on the commodity trade with the Pol- dependence upon the part of Poland. ish voivodeships because of the unbalanced According to these criteria, the regions character of trade relations. of Ukraine can be classified under the type The results of the calculations of the con- of commodity trade with Poland as shown nectivity coefficient of trade links and their in Table 1. Those regions, whose trade with
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 Regional differentiation of commodity trade of Ukraine with Poland 435
Annexed and occupied territories BELARUS Volyn Name of region Boundaries State border Region border Chernihiv Volyn Rivne Sumy Zhytomyr
POLAND city of Kyiv
Lviv Kyiv Poltava Ternopil Kharkiv Khmelnytskyi Cherkasy Luhansk A Ivano- VinnVinnytsiaytsia SLOVAKI Frankivsk Kirovohrad Transcarpathian Dnipropetrovsk Chernivtsi Donetsk MOLDOVA
HUNGARY ROMANIA Mykolaiv Zaporizhzhia Commodity trade connectivity coefficient with Poland Odesa Kherson 2.01-4.50 1.51-2.00 1.01-1.50 Sea of Azov 0.51-1.00 RUSSIAN 0.51-1.00 Black Sea Autonomous Republic of Crimea FEDERATION
Sevastopol
0 100 200 km
Figure 5. Spatial differentiation of the commodity trade coefficient connectivity of Ukrainian regions with Poland in 2018 Source: Based on data from State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2019).
Poland is defined by such characteristics on the commodity export to Poland, with as balance, and symmetry, are marked simultanious absence of dependence on the in bold. part of Poland. The Poltava, Khmelnitskyi, A separate group consists of six regions Cherkasy and Chernihiv regions are char- of Ukraine that have a significant export acterized by the absence of the significant dependence of their economies upon the dependence on trade with Poland, with a high trade with Poland, since the connectivity coef- level of balance where the values of con- ficient is greater than 1. At the same time, the nectivity of commodity trade coefficient Volyn, Rivne and Ternopil regions are highly are lower than 1.0 (Fig. 5). dependent both upon the export and upon Simultaneously, all the Ukrainian regions the import trade with Poland, despite the sig- with the value of connectivity coefficient low- nificant sustainability. Poland’s share in the er than 1 belong to different types, depend- total turnover of these areas is very high. ing on the ratio of the export-import flows For example, in 2018, the share of Poland to Poland and the average volumes of exports in the Ternopil region's geographical struc- and imports to all the partner-countries ture of exports was 49%, and in the structure determined on the basis of formulas (4-6). of imports – 42.7%. A separate type is made Therefore, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Sumy, up of Zhytomyr, Transcarpathian, Ivano- Chernivtsi regions and the city of Kyiv (Tab. 1) Frankivsk, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa and Kherson have a significant dependence upon the com- regions (Kzv= 1.2–1.7) which are dependent modity imports from Poland with a large
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 436 Volodymyr Lazhnik • Serhii Puhach • Andrii Maister
Table 1. The classification of Ukrainian regions by the type of commodity trade with Poland
Export-dependent Import-dependent Absence of dependence Character of dependence Regions Regions on the part of the Region
Export dependence Volyn, Rivne, Ternopil of Poland regions Import dependence Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Lviv, Kharkiv, Vinnytsia of Poland Luhansk, Volyn, regions Rivne, Ternopil regions Absence of dependence Zhytomyr, Transcarpathian, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Khmelnytsk, upon the part of Poland Ivano-Frankivsk, Zapor- Sumy, Chernivtsi regions, Cherkasy, Chernihiv izhzhia, Odesa, Kherson the city of Kyiv regions regions unbalanced trade. At the same time, the Lviv, coefficients with the trade connectivity coef- Vinnytsia and Kharkiv regions form a sepa- ficients indicates the dependence of the com- rate type of regions, which are characterized modity markets of industrially developed by the balance commodity trade with Poland regions of Ukraine upon the commodity with the value of the connectivity coefficient export deliveries to Poland. This dependence being slightly close to 1.0 (Fig. 5). is confirmed by the calculated pair corre- In general, the economy of the Ukrain- lation coefficient between these two coef- ian regions is characterized by a relatively ficients (R = 0.75; tst = 5.38; t23; 0.05 = 2.07). low degree of export dependence upon the At the same time, for regions that have a low Polish market. A pair correlation coefficient level of industrial development and specialize
(R = 0.52; tst = 2.92; t23; 0.05 = 2.07) between the in the production of agricultural goods, there share of goods exported to Poland and the is a significant import dependence upon the gross regional product of Ukrainian regions commodity flows of Polish high-tech products. confirms this fact. On the contrary, a high In general, trade between Ukraine and Poland degree of dependence of the Ukrainian region is more important for Ukraine and most of its economy upon the commodity imports from regions than for Poland, due to the fact that Poland has been found. This is evidenced Poland has a more diversified geographical by the fact that eight regions of Ukraine have and commodity structure of its external trade. a negative trade balance in their commod- ity trade. The calculated coefficient of the Conclusion pair correlation of the share of imports from Poland with the gross regional product of the The main goal of the study was to identify regions (R = 0.84; tst= 7.49; t23; 0.05 = 2.07) the features of the regional differentiation confirms this dependence. of commodity trade between the Ukrainian Thus the findings of the analysis that regions and Poland. It has been established was carried out for the purpose of grouping that, in terms of the spatial aspect, the of the Ukrainian regions by the commodity commodity trade of Ukrainian regions with trade type have shown that the majority of Poland is markedly differentiated. Wide dis- the Ukrainian regions are primarily the sup- parities in the development of the Ukrainian- pliers of raw materials to Poland, thereby Polish interregional cooperation are primarily being dependent upon the imports of pre- reflected in the asymmetry of the bilateral dominantly high-tech industrial products from external trade parameters. The most econom- Poland. A significant asymmetry of trade links ically developed regions and western regions of Ukrainian regions with Polish voivodeship- of Ukraine are actively involved in the trade sis is present. A comparison of the balance exchange. In particular, the western regions
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 Regional differentiation of commodity trade of Ukraine with Poland 437 of Ukraine have close trade ties with Polish (Korczowa-Krakovets, Krościenko-Smilnytsya, partners due to their geographical proximity Medyka-Shehyni, Budomierz-Hrushev, Prze- to Poland and due to the cross-border cooper- myśl-Usty-luh), 4 railway checkpoints (Hrubie- ation within the framework of the Carpathian szów-Volodymyr-Volynskyi, Krościenko-Khyriv, Euroregion and the Euroregion “Bug”. Przemyśl-Mostyska, Werchrata-Rava-Ruska), The regional differentiation of Ukraine’s and 2 automobile and railway checkpoints commodity trade with Poland is clearly (Dorohusk-Yahodyn, Hrebenne-Rava-Ruska). a reflection of the effect of W. Tobler’s first law Ukraine and Poland are united by interna- of geography, “Everything is related to every- tional transport corridors: Pan-European thing else, but near things are more related No. 3 (Cretan No. 3), Europe-Asia (TRACECA), than distant things” (Tobler 1970). The west- Gdańsk–Odesa (Baltic Sea-Black Sea). ern regions of Ukraine, which directly border The connectivity coefficient (Kzv) calcu- Poland, are distinguished by strong exports and lated for bilateral commodity flows shows imports and have high coefficients of trade that a high level of dependence upon the connectivity. This is facilitated by their proxim- commodity trade with Poland is typical for ity to Poland, the advantages of the border geo- 6 regions of Ukraine, while Ukraine, in gen- graphical location, the presence of an extensive eral, has a relatively high level of dependence network of roads and railways, which provide on trade with Poland (Kzv = 1.46) (Matveeva, export-import transportation and have the 2007). The assessment indicator of the com- transit value for the territories of these regions. modity trade balance in the context of Ukrain- The foreign trade relations between the ian regions has confirmed the fact that the regions of Ukraine and Poland are significantly Ukrainian external commodity trade with influenced by transport routes connecting the Poland tends to be balanced in regions with two countries. This is confirmed by the fact that an average level of economic development. the pair wise correlation coefficient between At the same time, highly developed regions the volume of exports of goods and the volume of Ukraine have an unbalanced commodity of road transport of goods is 0.67 (tst = 4.37; t23; trade due to the dominance of exports of raw 0.05 = 2.07), and between the export of goods materials to Poland. The raw material orienta- and the length of railways – 0.59 (tst = 3.46; t23; tion of Ukraine’s external trade with Poland 0.05 = 2.07). Accordingly, the import of goods from deepens structural deformations of the indus- Poland to the regions of Ukraine and the total trial complex at the regional level. Therefore, turnover are significantly affected by the turno- any cooperation in the field of the fourth and ver of road transport (correlation coefficient is, the highest technological modes is the basis respectively, 0.84 (tst = 7.48; t23; 0.05 = 2.07) and of the regional integration within the frame- 0.80 (tst = 6.29; t23; 0.05 = 2.07)). Thus, in com- work of the Ukraine’s European integration modity trade between the two countries, road strategy and its implementation. transport is of paramount importance for move- There is a similar significant asymmetry ment of a significant amount of consumer goods, in the bilateral Ukrainian-Polish commodity whereas rail transport specializes in the trans- trade, since Poland does not have a signifi- portation of heavy goods (iron ore, coal, ferrous cant dependence on the trade with Ukraine, metals, construction materials, etc.). because of its major focus on the EU and The extensive cross-border transport net- highly developed world countries. work connecting Poland and Ukraine, which The asymmetry of bilateral trade relations consists of routes (among them of major impor- between the regions of Ukraine and Poland tance are E40, E372, E373, M07, M09, M10 is manifested in the fact that the border and M11) and railways (6 railway checkpoints) regions of both countries are the most involved facilitates the development of trade rela- in the exchange of goods. Thus, Komornicki tions. There are 11 checkpoints on the Polish- analyzed the role of commodity trade in the Ukrainian border: 5 automobile checkpoints local development of Polish regions and found
Geographia Polonica 2020, 93, 3, pp. 421-442 438 Volodymyr Lazhnik • Serhii Puhach • Andrii Maister that Lublin and Podkarpackie voivodeships and agriculture, and the transport infra- are leaders in Polish exports to neighbour- structure modernization. Ukraine and Poland ing western regions of Ukraine (Komornicki, do not sufficiently use the opportunities for 2010). At the beginning of the 21st century, increased inter-regional cooperation, relying Polish regions’ trade with Ukraine developed on the economic and natural potentials of the within two transport and communication regions of both countries, which is due, pri- axes: in the latitudinal direction from the marily, to the limited financial resources and border to Krakow and in the north-western the difficult economic situation in the Ukraini- direction from the border with Ukraine via an economy in the context of the conflict in the Lublin to Warsaw. The city of Lublin had East of Ukraine. It is advisable to intensify the strongest ties with Ukrainian partners. interregional ties and economic cooperation Komornicki also found that by 2007 there was between companies and enterprises of both an increase in the concentration of exports countries, which will lead to an increase in the of goods to Ukraine in the Masovian, Sile- external trade flows. The Ukrainian border sian, Greater Poland and Lower Silesian regions are also making little use of the oppor- voivodeships (Komornicki, 2010). tunities for the cross-border cooperation within Disproportions in trade turnover among the framework of the Carpathian Euroregion Ukrainian regions and Polish voivodeships and the Euroregion “Bug”. are major barrier that hinder to exploit the full economic potential of many Ukrainian Acknowledgements regions and create a number of problems associated with the efficient use of exist- This research has been carried out within ing natural, industrial and labour resources. the framework of the state budget scientific At the same time, Ukraine has a strong theme of the Department of International export dependence on the supply of goods Relations and Regional Studies of Lesia to the Polish market, since Poland is one of the Ukrainka Eastern European National Univer- main trading partners of Ukraine. Therefore, sity called “Ukraine in the System of the Euro- Ukraine is interested in increasing share pean Integration and the Cross-Border Coop- of external trade links with Poland, including eration”. Prospects for further researches are the regional level. related to the analysis of trade links among Since the economic situation in Ukraine the regions of Ukraine and Poland applying has been highly complicated in recent years, gravity models. one of the ways to improve it may be the coordination activities of Ukraine and Poland Editors‘ note: to diversify commodity supplies. In addition, Unless otherwise stated, the sources of tables and it is necessary to deepen the cooperation figures are the authors‘, on the basis of their own in the development of individual industries research.
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