LP/Ev/9l

Cumulative impacts of development on flood risk

Final Report

December 2020

www.jbaconsulting.com

2016s5363 - Bracknell Cumulative Impacts Assessment (v4.0 Jan 2021) i

JBA Project Manager Anna Beasley 8a Castle Street Wallingford OX10 8DL

Revision history Revision Ref/Date Amendments Issued to Draft / 16 April 2020 Natalie Hird Final Draft / 24 September Amendments following review Natalie Hird 2020 Final / 18 December 2020 Amendments following review Natalie Hird Final / 13 January 2021 Final amendments Natalie Hird Contract

Prepared by ...... Kirstie Murphy BSc MSc Assistant Analyst

Reviewed by ...... Anna Beasley BSc MSc CEnv MCIWEM C.WEM Anna Beasley Technical Director Purpose This document has been prepared as a Final Report for Bracknell Forest Council. JBA Consulting accepts no responsibility or liability for any use that is made of this document other than by the Client for the purposes for which it was originally commissioned and prepared. JBA Consulting has no liability regarding the use of this report except to Bracknell Forest Council

Copyright © Jeremy Benn Associates Limited 2020. Carbon footprint JBA is aiming to reduce its per capita carbon emissions.

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Contents 1 Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Context ...... 1 1.2 Overview of flood risk in Bracknell Forest ...... 3 1.3 Input data ...... 3 2 Assessment approach ...... 3 2.1 How catchments were defined ...... 4 2.2 How flood risk susceptibility was defined ...... 4 2.3 How future growth was considered ...... 8 2.3.1 Strategic growth in Bracknell Forest ...... 8 2.3.2 Strategic growth in neighbouring Authorities ...... 8 2.4 Results of future growth analysis ...... 11 2.5 Identifying catchments with the most potential for cumulative impact of development on flooding ... 11 3 Assumptions and limitations ...... 12 3.1 Flood risk ...... 12 3.2 Existing properties ...... 12 3.3 Proposed development ...... 12 4 Planning policy considerations ...... 13 4.1 Higher and medium susceptibility catchments with high development pressure within Bracknell Forest ...... 13 4.2 Higher susceptibility catchments with high development pressure draining towards neighbouring authorities ...... 14 4.3 Higher susceptibility catchments with less development pressure draining towards neighbouring authorities ...... 14 4.4 Lower susceptibility catchments ...... 14

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List of Figures Figure 1-1: Hydrological catchments and local authority boundaries 2 Figure 2-1: The approach to the cumulative impact assessment 4 Figure 2-2: Flood risk susceptibility in Bracknell Forest 7 Figure 2-3: Potential development sites considered within Bracknell Forest and neighbouring districts 10

List of Tables Table 1-1: Spatial data utilised in the cumulative impact assessment 3 Table 2-1: Flood susceptibility scoring 5 Table 2-2: Flood susceptibility by WFD catchment 6 Table 2-3: Distribution of potential development areas by WFD catchment 11

Abbreviations AEP Annual Exceedance Probability NPPF National Planning Policy Framework SFRA Strategic Flood Risk Assessment WFD Water Framework Directive

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1 Introduction

1.1 Context Under the 2018 update to the National Planning Policy Framework1 (NPPF), strategic policies and their supporting Strategic Flood Risk Assessments (SFRAs), are required to ‘consider cumulative impacts in, or affecting, local areas susceptible to flooding’ (para. 156). At present, the Planning Practice Guidance for Flood Risk and Coastal Change has not been updated to include any guidance on methodology for the assessment of the cumulative impacts of flooding. Cumulative effects arise, for instance, where several developments each have insignificant effects but together have a significant effect; or where several individual effects of the plan (e.g. noise, dust and visual) have a combined effect. This report examines the risk of several developments having a significant effect on flooding. The assessment includes both development within Bracknell Forest and within the neighbouring local authority areas, as hydrological catchments cross these administrative boundaries, draining into, out of and within Bracknell Forest. It assesses the risk of: • Cumulative development in Bracknell Forest adversely impacting flood risk within Bracknell, or within a neighbouring local authority area. • Cumulative development in a neighbouring local authority area adversely impacting flood risk within Bracknell. The assessment focusses on flood risk from rivers, as the greatest impact of cumulative development occurring within a catchment is felt in the river corridor. The assessment involves dividing the Bracknell Forest and neighbouring authority areas into hydrological catchments, assessing the susceptibility of each catchment to current flood risk, and considering the potential impact of the development being considered at this stage in each local authority’s Local Plans. Hydrological catchments cross local authority boundaries, so where catchments are shown as higher risk, it is important to note that the flood risk areas or development pressures are in some cases outside of Bracknell Forest Borough. Figure 1-1 shows Bracknell Forest and its neighbouring authorities, alongside the hydrological catchments which drain into, out of and within Bracknell Forest. Where catchments are identified as sensitive to the cumulative impact of development, the assessment concludes with potential strategic planning policy suggestions to manage the risk.

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1 Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (2018) National Planning Policy Framework. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/728643/Revised_NPPF_2018.pdf

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Figure 1-1: Hydrological catchments and local authority boundaries

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1.2 Overview of flood risk in Bracknell Forest The Level 1 SFRA (July 2918) considered all sources of flooding including fluvial, surface water, groundwater, sewers and reservoirs within Bracknell Forest. Many of the settlements across Bracknell Forest have experienced flooding in the past, including (but not limited to) Sandhurst, Warfield, Binfield, Bracknell Town, North Ascot, Crowthorne and Winkfield. Fluvial flood risk is generally be confined to the Main River floodplains such as The Cut and the Blackwater River. Overall, fluvial flood risk is in close proximity to watercourses, with a few areas of extensive floodplain. Surface water flooding occurs on small watercourses and through surface water runoff and exceedance of the drainage capacity in urban areas throughout Bracknell Forest, particularly Bracknell itself. In some locations there may be a risk of groundwater emergence during extremely wet winters. The highest groundwater flood risk areas occur across a central band, to the south of Bracknell and into North Ascot. There are also some areas close to the River Blackwater in Sandhurst which may be associated with river gravels.

1.3 Input data This assessment used spatial data to assess the existing risk of flooding and the potential impact of development. The spatial data was either provided by the client or available as open source data from the Ordnance Survey, Environment Agency or neighbouring planning authorities. A list of the data used, and its source has been included in Table 1-1. Table 1-1: Spatial data utilised in the cumulative impact assessment

Data Source Use in this assessment Flood Risk Information Flood Zones Environment This open source data was used to indicate Agency areas at risk of flooding from rivers. Historic Flood Environment This open source data was used to indicate Map Agency areas with a recorded flood history from rivers. River Catchment Information Water Environment This open source data was used to define Framework Agency river catchments. Directive River Catchments Current Development Information Vector Map Ordnance Survey This open source data was used as an indicator of existing property locations.

2 Assessment approach This section summarises how spatial data was used to assess the cumulative impact of development. The process has been presented as a flow chart (Figure 2-1) and each stage is explained in Sections 2.1 to 0.

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Define the hydrological catchments within, or which drain into and out of, Bracknell Forest administrative area

Assess the current susceptibility to flooding in each catchment, considering probability and consequence of flooding

Locate the potential growth in relation to the catchments and the areas suseptible to flooding

Make recommendations on local planning policy which can mitigate the risks identified

Figure 2-1: The approach to the cumulative impact assessment

2.1 How catchments were defined The river catchments were defined using the Water Framework Directive (WFD) ‘River Waterbody Catchments Cycle 2’ polygon dataset. These catchments are defined as an area of land from which all surface run-off flows through a series of streams, rivers and, possibly, lakes to a point in the water course such as a river confluence. The catchments used for this assessment have been illustrated in Figure 1-1.

2.2 How flood risk susceptibility was defined At present there is no Planning Practice Guidance on how to assess cumulative impacts of flooding. A simple flood susceptibility score was derived for each catchment based on the number of buildings that intersect historic flood extents or predicted flood risk was assessed (Table 2-1). Fluvial risk in Bracknell is relatively low, in comparison with many areas, and the numbers chosen reflect the relative levels of flood risk here. The assessment did not consider the use of the building or its vulnerability to flood risk. The WFD catchments were then ranked by number of buildings within Flood Zone 2. This included buildings both within and outside Bracknell Forest Borough (a break down is given in Table 2-2). For some catchments the majority of the flood risk is outside of the Borough, however in almost all cases the area within the Borough drains out towards these flood risk areas, meaning development within Bracknell Forest has the potential to impact on the level of flood risk in neighbouring boroughs. Flood Zone 2 was used for ranking because it considers both predicted flood extents (land at risk of a 0.1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) fluvial event) and recorded flood extents (the historic flood map).

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Table 2-1: Flood susceptibility scoring

Flood susceptibility score Number of buildings within Flood Zone 2 in WFD catchment* Higher >250 Medium >100 Lower <100 *including buildings both within and outside Bracknell Forest boundary. The results from this analysis are summarised in Figure 2-2 and Table 2-2. Table 2-2 shows that the WFD catchments with the highest flood risk (both with significantly more than 250 properties at risk) are Blackwater (Hawley to Whitewater confluence at Bramshill) and Cut (Binfield to River Thames confluence), Emm Brook, Hale/Mill Bourne and Twyford Brook. For each the majority of the properties at risk are outside of Bracknell Forest, but Bracknell Forest forms part of the upper catchment, contributing runoff into these risk areas. The Cut (Ascot to Bull Brook confluence at Warfield) is at the lower end of the ‘higher’ susceptibility score and Bull Brook catchment at the upper end of the ‘medium’ score. Both of these catchments are almost entirely within Bracknell Forest, meaning the buildings at risk are all within Bracknell Forest. The four remaining WFD catchments are considered at ‘Lower’ susceptibility, with less than 100 properties at risk in each.

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Table 2-2: Flood susceptibility by WFD catchment

Historic Flood Map Flood Zone 3 Flood Zone 2 Building Building Building Building Building Building Count Count Count Count Count Count Flood Catchment (within (outside (within (outside (within (outside susceptibility Catchment Area (km²) BFC) BFC) Rank BFC) BFC) Rank BFC) BFC) Rank score Blackwater (Hawley to Whitewater confluence at Bramshill) 70.6 6 150 5 164 1275 1 109 1001 1 Higher Cut (Binfield to River Thames confluence) and Maidenhead Ditch 67.1 21 178 3 59 455 5 34 148 2 Higher Emm Brook 42.4 0 257 2 0 422 4 0 220 3 Higher Hale/ Mill Bourne (Bagshot to Addlestone Bourne confluence near Chobham) 45.3 0 159 4 0 396 3 0 226 4 Higher Twyford Brook 41.2 0 293 1 0 352 6 0 126 5 Higher Cut (Ascot to Bull Brook confluence at Warfield) 20.4 0 0 8 164 114 2 147 95 6 Higher Bull Brook 13.0 0 0 8 243 0 7 94 0 7 Medium Chertsey Bourne (Ascot to Virginia Water) 16.9 0 0 8 6 83 8 5 14 8 Lower Cut at West Bracknell 11.3 0 0 8 71 0 9 44 0 9 Lower Chertsey Bourne (Sunningdale to Virginia Water) 11.2 0 5 7 0 66 11 0 17 10 Lower Cut (Warfield to North Bracknell) 39.2 20 0 6 54 0 10 25 0 11 Lower

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Figure 2-2: Relative flood risk susceptibility in Bracknell Forest

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2.3 How future growth was considered The potential for future growth in Bracknell Forest has been considered by analysing the areas that have been identified for potential development. The potential development area has been calculated as a percentage of the area of each WFD catchment. It is acknowledged that not all the sites will be developed, but this gave a comparable indicator of the development pressure in each WFD catchment. The potential growth in the catchments has been compared to the flood susceptibility.

2.3.1 Strategic growth in Bracknell Forest The locations for potential for future growth in Bracknell Forest was informed by the Strategic Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessments (SHELAA). These sites were assumed to deliver the majority of growth. Whilst other sites will come forward, the majority will be on sites that are already developed.

2.3.2 Strategic growth in neighbouring Authorities There are four local authorities which share a border with Bracknell Forest Council. These are Wokingham, Windsor and Maidenhead, Surrey Heath District and Hart District. Catchments in these districts drain into Bracknell and therefore are important to consider as part of the cumulative impact assessment. Development sites were requested from each authority, and received as follows: Local Planning Authority Data received Surrey Heath SLAA 2017 Economic sites SLAA 2017 Housing sites SLAAID 2019 Wokingham Strategic development locations Proposed mix use land allocation at Grazeley Proposed non Grazeley LPU land allocations Approved planning applications since 2019 Royal Borough of Windsor and BLPSV-PC housing allocations Maidenhead Hart Hartland village development Odiham neighbourhood plan development sites Note: a) new SLAA sites for Surrey Heath are not currently finalised and as such the 2017 sites have been provided. b) up to date SHLAA sites were not available for Hart and as such policy development areas have been provided.

Growth has been considered in these neighbouring authorities where data is available, as the WFD catchments extend into these areas. It is noted that some sites are located within more than one WFD catchment and as such the site boundary has been clipped to the catchment extent for the area calculations. Where multiple shapefiles have been provided by the LPA, the data has been merged into a single shapefile and any duplicate site boundaries removed. 2016s5363 - Bracknell Cumulative Impacts Assessment (v4.0 Jan 2021) 8

Within the Surrey Heath data set, sites with the ‘excluded’ and ‘not currently developable’ classifications were removed. A comparison with the 2019 Wokingham data provided for the previous assessment showed fewer sites in the 2020 data set. Data was provided containing 2603 approved planning applications since 2019 and these were compared to the 2019 data to identify land within the site boundaries that have been approved, these sites were subsequently added to the site count and area of development calculations. A map showing the location of the potential development sites considered in the analysis within Bracknell Forest and its neighbouring districts is shown in Figure 2-3.

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Figure 2-3: Potential development sites considered within Bracknell Forest and neighbouring districts

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2.4 Results of future growth analysis Table 2-3 shows the actual area and percentage of each WFD catchment which is currently being considered for potential development.

Table 2-3: Distribution of potential development areas by WFD catchment

Area of all potential % of WFD Number development sites catchment of As a % of covered by potential WFD potential developm catchment developments ent sites area within Flood suscep- in WFD Actual Bracknell WFD catchment name tibility score catchment area Forest Rank Emm Brook High 40 6.3 15.0 3.2 1 Cut (Ascot to Bullbrook Confluence at Warfield) High 41 2.5 12.1 12.0 2 Bull Brook Medium 10 0.7 5.3 5.3 3 Cut (Binfield to River Thames confluence) and Maidenhead Ditch High 18 3.1 4.6 2.8 4 Blackwater (Hawley to Whitewater confluence at Bramshill) High 57 2.0 2.8 0.6 5 Cut at West Bracknell Low 15 0.2 2.2 2.2 6 Hale/ Mill Bourne (Bagshot to Addlestone Bourne confluence near Chobham) High 72 0.9 2.0 0.0 7 Twyford Brook High 13 0.8 1.8 1.7 8 Chertsey Bourne -Ascot to Virginia Water Low 6 0.3 1.7 0.4 9 Chertsey Bourne - Sunningdale to Virginia water Low 5 0.1 1.2 0.2 10 Cut (Warfield to North Bracknell) Low 9 0.4 1.0 1.0 11

2.5 Identifying catchments with the most potential for cumulative impact of development on flooding Table 2-3 also shows the flood susceptibility score of each WFD catchment. This shows that four out of the top five areas with the highest percentage area of potential development are located within catchments with a high susceptibility score (i.e. has more than 250 buildings falling within Flood Zone 2) including the two most under pressure for development, Emm Brook and Cut (Ascot to Bullbrook Confluence at Warfield). It is clear that the Emm Brook and Cut (Ascot to Bullbrook Confluence at Warfield) have the highest percentage area under consideration at 15% and 12% respectively.

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The remaining catchments have 5% or less of the catchment area proposed for development, with four catchments at less than 2%. Emm Brook may experience new development on up to 15% of its total catchment area, which could have a significant cumulative impact on flows, however potential development within Bracknell Forest boundary covers only 3% of the catchment. While BFC can work in partnership with neighbouring authority Wokingham, the potential development in Bracknell will have a smaller influence here. Cut (Ascot to Bullbrook Confluence at Warfield) may experience new development on up to 12% of its total catchment area. All of these sites are substantially within Bracknell Forest boundary, so clearly Bracknell Forest Council has more control over how cumulative development is managed within this catchment. The catchment with the next highest percentage area proposed for development is also entirely within Bracknell Forest - Bull Brook, a medium susceptibility catchment with 5% of its catchment proposed for potential development. The different policy approaches required for the above catchments is addressed through the planning policy considerations in section 4.

3 Assumptions and limitations The study has been undertaken using the best available data at the time. The assumptions made in assessing and ranking the impacts of cumulative development on catchments are summarised in this section.

3.1 Flood risk This assessment has considered susceptibility to fluvial flood risk. It has not considered susceptibility to other sources of flooding such as groundwater, sewer exceedance or surface water. This has been concluded as sensible in this case, because while development may affect surface water and groundwater locally, the cumulative impact of development will ultimately influence fluvial risk at a catchment scale. The assessment of flood risk is based on the Flood Map for Planning (Rivers and Sea) Flood Zones. These provide an indication of flood risk, ignoring the presence of flood defences. Flood Zones are considered in a planning context as there is no guarantee that the defences will be maintained to the current standard in the future. However, the present actual risk may be overstated by the Flood Zones. The Bracknell Forest SFRA has identified that there are few flood defences within Bracknell so this is felt to be a reasonable assumption. Bracknell Forest Council also has a local flood risk management strategy 2017-2020. The impact of the strategies in place have not been accounted for in this assessment.

3.2 Existing properties Consideration was given to the number of buildings at risk of flooding but not the use of buildings and therefore vulnerability to flood risk. Not knowing the vulnerability of the land use does limit our understanding of the current impact of flood risk. However, it is acceptable limitation given the scope of this assessment. The number of buildings currently at risk of flooding in each WFD catchment was considered. The study extended beyond the Bracknell Forest boundary, to consider properties within the catchment boundaries which intersected and were neighbouring to Bracknell. Therefore, open source data (Ordnance Survey Vector Map) was used for local buildings extending beyond the Bracknell Forest boundary. This is less detailed than MasterMap and the approximate equivalent of a 1:25,000 mapping, but considered sufficient for a comparative assessment of flood risk impact.

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The proposed development was considered through an analysis of the percentage area of the catchment that has the potential to be developed. The estimate was based on the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA), and considered sites that have the potential for residential development. There may be additional sites allocated to the areas that have not been considered in this report, and adversely, not all of the SHLAA sites will be allocated and proceed to development, however it gives a comparable indication of the development pressure that each WFD catchment may be under.

4 Planning policy considerations This section outlines some considerations for planning policy in Bracknell Forest to address any cumulative impact risks. The Cumulative Impact Assessment was completed after the Level 2 SFRA. The two are consistent in terms of the application of good practice for sustainable drainage. However, in WFD catchments where this analysis has found cumulative impact susceptibility/risk is high, the policy recommendations below suggest some strengthened design requirements. These policy considerations should therefore be considered alongside the Level 2 policy recommendations and may add to these recommendations.

4.1 Higher and medium susceptibility catchments with high development pressure within Bracknell Forest Applies to Cut (Ascot to Bull Brook confluence at Warfield) and Bull Brook • National and local flood risk planning policy must be stringently applied within this area, with flood risk from all sources given the appropriate priority, particularly when applying the Sequential and Exception Tests. • A Surface Water Drainage Strategy should be required for all developments in this catchment, regardless of development size. • All developments must incorporate SuDS following the National non-statutory technical standards, CIRIA SuDS Manual and Bracknell Design Supplementary Planning Document. Preference will be given to systems that contribute to the conservation and enhancement of biodiversity and green infrastructure in the Borough. • All applications must provide details of adoption, ongoing maintenance and management. • Developments in this area should be incentivised to provide wider betterment by demonstrating in site specific Flood Risk Assessments and Surface Water Drainage Strategies what measures can be put in place to contribute to a reduction in flood risk downstream. This may either be by provision of additional storage on site e.g. through oversized SuDS, natural flood management techniques, green infrastructure and green-blue corridors and/or by providing a Partnership Funding contribution towards any flood alleviation schemes. • Suitable controls should be in place on windfall sites increasing the developed area of the catchment. • For large strategic developments: o The LLFA, Environment Agency and LPA should be consulted at pre-application stage o The FRA should examine the cumulative impacts of potential peak rates and volumes of water from across the site on peak flows, duration of flooding and timing of flood peaks in receiving watercourses. This should include the

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impact of other developments within the WFD catchment as advised by the LPA/LLFA if appropriate. o A Surface Water Drainage Masterplan should develop and implement appropriate drainage sub-catchments and specific runoff rate and volume requirements for each sub-catchment, based on the SuDS management train. o 10mm of interception storage should be provided. o Discharge rates should be limited to QMED. Particular attention should be given to mitigating runoff volumes to greenfield volume, with long-term storage to be provided where required. o Every opportunity should be taken to infiltrate and/or store water at a plot level. o The provision of drainage during the building phase shall be based on a Drainage Phasing Plan to ensure adequate drainage is provided and implemented throughout the development life.

4.2 Higher susceptibility catchments with high development pressure draining towards neighbouring authorities Applies to: Emm Brook • As above for higher susceptibility catchments within Bracknell; and • Work closely with neighbouring Local Authorities and the Lead Local Flood Authority to develop complementary Local Planning Policies on cumulative flood risk and sustainable drainage.

4.3 Higher susceptibility catchments with less development pressure draining towards neighbouring authorities Applies to: Cut (Binfield to River Thames confluence), Blackwater (Hawley to Whitewater confluence at Bramshill), Hale/ Mill Bourne (Bagshot to Addlestone Bourne confluence near Chobham), Twyford Brook • Surface water drainage policy recommendations as set out in the National Non- Statutory Technical Standards, Level 1 SFRA and Bracknell Design Supplementary Planning Document. • Work closely with neighbouring Local Authorities and the Lead Local Flood Authority to develop complementary Local Planning Policies on cumulative flood risk and sustainable drainage.

4.4 Lower susceptibility catchments Bull Brook, Chertsey Bourne (Sunningdale to Virginia Water), Chertsey Bourne (Ascot to Virginia Water), Cut at West Bracknell, Cut (Warfield to North Bracknell) • Surface water drainage policy recommendations as set out in the National Non- Statutory Technical Standards, Level 1 SFRA and Bracknell Design Supplementary Planning Document.

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