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Market Segment Report: European Insurers' Focus on Profitability

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Market Segment Report: European Insurers' Focus on Profitability BEST’S MARKET SEGMENT REPORT August 28, 2018 European Insurers’ Focus on Profitability Overrides Desire to Grow Top-Line Growth remains important to European insurers, although their primary focus tends to A common be on delivering returns to their shareholders and attracting good quality business. As a consequence, companies are increasingly concentrating on high margin lines and cost challenge efficiencies in order to meet return on equity (ROE) targets. faced by A.M. Best notes that insurers are closely examining their portfolios, looking to use capital all non-life more efficiently and ceasing to underwrite or sell underperforming – albeit not necessarily European unprofitable – classes. For some insurers, merger and acquisition (M&A) activity represent a means of optimising their portfolios and they are examining purchases where they can attain insurers is the greater market presence and scale. ability to grow Analysis shows that non-life European insurers rated by A.M. Best have generally enjoyed a period of relative stability (see Exhibit 1). Issuer Credit Ratings (ICR) demonstrate that companies are well capitalised, and all have a rating of “bbb-” or above. The vast majority of ICRs as of August 21, 2018 were in the “a” category. Monetary policy has helped stimulate economic growth rates in the region, with increasing domestic demand due to growing consumer and business confidence, lower unemployment rates, and credit growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the EU was 2.7% in 2017, and is expected to decelerate slightly in 2018 to 2.5%. The European Central Bank (ECB) will end Exhibit 1 Europe – Non-Life and Life – Distribution – A.M. Best-rated Insurers Distribution by Issuer Credit Rating (ICR) as of Aug. 21, 2018. (%) 31% 29% 18% Analytical Contact: Tim Prince, London Tel: +44 20 7397 0320 9% [email protected] 8% Editorial Managers: Yvette Essen, London 2% Tel: +44 20 7397 0322 1% 1% 1% [email protected] aa+ aa aa- a+ a a- bbb+ bbb bbb- Richard Hayes, London Tel: +44 20 7397 0326 Notes: [email protected] Percentages adjusted to account for rounding to 100%. 2018-122 Sources: Best's Statement File – Global, A.M. Best data & research Copyright © 2018 A.M. Best Company, Inc. and/or its affiliates. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No portion of this content may be reproduced, distributed, or stored in a database or retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of A.M. Best. While the content was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For additional details, refer to our Terms of Use available at A.M. Best website: www.ambest.com/terms. Market Segment Report European Non-Life its three-year EUR 2.4 trillion quantitative easing programme by the end of 2018, although it has indicated that any rise in interest rates before September 2019 is unlikely. Profitability Varies, Reflecting Competitive Environment European insurance markets are extremely varied with regards to profitability. In some countries such as Spain, participants are producing exceptionally strong combined ratios. Meanwhile, in the UK and France, these can be marginal, reflecting competition. A handful of market participants continue to dominate, highlighting concentration across the continent. However, with each individual market having significantly different attributes, this concentration is not necessarily a negative factor where consumers are concerned. In reality, A.M. Best notes in most European countries the insurance sector is experiencing a relatively strong level of competition. Furthermore, each market has its own peculiarities, with products core to some markets but absent from others and with distribution channel mix dictated by the history and culture of each particular country. Generally speaking, over recent years, the most competitive conditions have been felt in the reinsurance sector, and in global specialty lines such as marine and aviation. Although there may be some exceptions, global reinsurance markets encountered strong rate pressure in both 2016 and 2017, particularly in property lines of business and especially in the US. Retail lines in certain markets are also very competitive, for example in the UK and France, motor combined operating ratios can run at about 100%. A number of companies had a significant exposure to the US hurricanes, either through their reinsurance or US commercial business, however, they continued to report robust earnings. The most significant insured losses in Europe in 2017 were related to droughts in Southern Europe in the summer and autumn. Central Europe was impacted by severe weather in June and extratropical cyclone Herwart in October, which struck Austria and Germany, and Denmark to a lesser extent. Meanwhile, Portugal suffered from a wildfire in October. Additional challenges facing European insurers include elevated levels of geo-political and financial system risks, coupled with the uncertainty and instability caused by the ongoing negotiations to set the terms of the UK’s relationship with the EU following its formal withdrawal from the bloc (Brexit). M&A Remains Firmly on the Agenda A number of factors are influencing M&A activity. Companies engaging in M&A deals may be exploring expansion strategies, or improvements in their ROE levels and pursuing M&A can be a route to achieving that. Another motivation behind making an acquisition can be a company’s desire to improve its client offering, which more recently has included insurance companies purchasing service-related businesses, or technology that allows them to improve their client relationships. In A.M. Best’s opinion, Solvency II has also encouraged acquisition to a certain extent, as some companies receive diversification benefits in their capital calculations under the regulatory regime. Purchasing a different book of business can reduce companies’ overall capital needs – without necessarily adding to the bottom line. The motivation could also be the very opposite, with companies looking to offload capital inefficient businesses. Significant M&A transactions over the last few years have included the acquisition of The Chubb Corporation by ACE Limited (later renamed Chubb Limited) in 2016. With the recent 2 Market Segment Report European Non-Life announcement that AXA will acquire XL Group Limited, the European market is likely to face further concentration. Meanwhile, there have been a number of sales of savings books, which have high capital consumption. Capital is currently cheap and in high abundance, enabling the financing of deals and increasing the level of competition in certain (re)insurance markets. Consequently, particularly in the reinsurance sector, there has been a perception that scale and relevance are increasingly important, and there has been consolidation in that market in recent years. Outlook for European Insurers Generally Positive Analysis of all European insurers rated by A.M. Best shows 88% of ICR outlooks are stable, 5% positive, 5% negative and the remainder developing (see Exhibit 2). France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK are the leading markets in Europe by gross Exhibit 2 written premium (GWP), and economic Europe – Non-Life and Life – conditions within each individual country Outlook – A.M. Best-rated Insurers have an impact on local insurance demand. Issuer Credit Rating (ICR) as of Aug. 21, 2018. A.M. Best has stable outlooks on the non- life insurance markets of all these European countries, with the exception of the UK, which is negative. Stable Positive 88% 5% The UK’s outlook reflects the persistent competitive market conditions, uncertainty Negative 5% related to legislative changes and the potential impact of Brexit on the UK economy, which creates an overall difficult operating Developing 2% environment. The implications surrounding Brexit are wide reaching and have potential to cause severe disruption affecting various Notes: Percentages adjusted to account for rounding to 100%. macro-economic statistics including Source: Best's Statement File ‐ Global, A.M. Best data and research. unemployment rates and economic growth. Germany’s outlook is driven by the country’s robust economy, which continues to drive growth in the non-life insurance market. Technical profitability is solid and is expected to remain so, underpinned by good underwriting discipline and sustainable rate adjustments. Economic growth in Germany has been driven by increasing domestic demand, favourable credit conditions, higher wage growth, increased investment, and improved business and consumer confidence. In France, non-life insurers have demonstrated robust business models with generally well- diversified profiles in the face of significant competition, pressure on technical margins and persistent low interest rates. However, headwinds for France include rising trade tensions due to increasing trade protectionist policies and ageing demographics. Spain is undergoing political change, with power transferred to new Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in June 2018 and instability and uncertainty coming from Catalonia following the vote in October 2017 to separate from Spain with 90% of the voters backing the secession. However, A.M. Best’s stable outlook on Spain’s non-life segment is underpinned by the market’s robust credit fundamentals, primarily stemming from a consistently solid technical profitability that is among the strongest in Europe. 3 Market Segment Report European Non-Life A good record of technical profitability
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