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Compilation of the PPE Compilation of Inputs to the WMO Open Consultative Platform White Paper #1 Future of Weather and Climate Forecasting (Annex to WMO No. 1263) Unedited original inputs from contributors Contents A message from the Lead Author .......................................................................................................... 1 About this White Paper .......................................................................................................................... 2 Goal 1: Customised impact-based forecasts and warnings .............................................................. 2 Goal 2: Reliable and trusted forecasts ............................................................................................... 3 Goal 3: An Earth system prediction capability .................................................................................. 3 Goal 4: Seamless weather and climate insights ................................................................................ 3 Inputs of White Paper Contributors ...................................................................................................... 4 Peter Bauer ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Natacha Bernier .................................................................................................................................. 9 Veronique Bouchet .......................................................................................................................... 11 Andy Brown ...................................................................................................................................... 13 Antonio Busalacchi ........................................................................................................................... 15 Georgina Campbell and Rei Goffer .................................................................................................. 16 Paul Davies ....................................................................................................................................... 20 Beth Ebert ......................................................................................................................................... 28 Karl Gutbrod ..................................................................................................................................... 30 Songyou Hong ................................................................................................................................... 32 Dimitar Ivanov .................................................................................................................................. 34 PK Kenabatho ................................................................................................................................... 39 Hans-Joachim Koppert ..................................................................................................................... 41 David Lesolle ..................................................................................................................................... 45 Amanda Lynch .................................................................................................................................. 51 Jean_François Mahfouf .................................................................................................................... 56 Laban Ogallo ..................................................................................................................................... 60 Tim Palmer ........................................................................................................................................ 62 Dave Parsons .................................................................................................................................... 73 Kevin Petty ........................................................................................................................................ 76 Dennis Schulze .................................................................................................................................. 80 Ted Shepherd .................................................................................................................................... 83 Thomas Stocker ................................................................................................................................ 86 Alan Thorpe ...................................................................................................................................... 89 Rucong Yu ......................................................................................................................................... 94 A | Page A message from the Lead Author The Open Consultative Platform (OCP) White Paper #1 on Future of Weather and Climate Forecasting addresses issues and challenges under the overarching question of “How do you see the future of global weather and climate predictions in 2030?”, which is framed around four goals of future development. It presents the analyses and visions of world-leading experts in the relevant areas upon the key questions in relation to each goal, which have been identified through a broad consultation processes during the work on the publication. This compilation is an Annex to the White Paper #1 composed of the original inputs from all contributors. The high quality of the these contributions with the various views, the originality of the ideas, and even the existing controversies in trying to predict the future, justify the need to keep this record of inputs as an additional reading to the White Paper. It also demonstrates the fair and transparent approach of the OCP as a WMO mechanism fostering public-private-academic engagement. Gilbert Brunet Chief Scientist and Group Executive Science and Innovation, Bureau of Meteorology Chair of the Science Advisory Panel, World Meteorological Organization 1 | Page About this White Paper The white paper has been developed with the contribution from 27 lead experts from all sectors of the weather and climate enterprise. They have been invited to provide their inputs in a structured way by answering 15 questions along four Goals shaping the future or weather and climate forecasting and insight. Questions: • Q1. How good are the forecasts today and what are the unresolved challenges in the weather/climate forecasting? (e.g., before looking 10 years ahead, look 10 years back – what has changed) • Q2. Are we going to eliminate completely the “black swans”, i.e., a future without surprises from extreme weather? • Q3. Major technological breakthroughs and new applications (e.g. Artificial Intelligence, machine learning, new data, cloud computing) – where are they expected and what will be their impact? • Q4. Technical improvement – accuracy & reliability vis-à-vis value & impact • Q5. Moving toward the NEWP system, what will be the future forecasting in 2030? What observational system(s) will be needed to underpin this approach? • Q6. What scientific advancements are needed for NEWP? (e.g. intake of new data, new parameterization) • Q7. Global vs. regional vs. local: how is forecasting going to be done and who will be doing what? (i.e., role of various centres) • Q8. How the future operational scheme for forecasting would address resolution & scale questions? (e.g. information provision at global/regional/local scales) • Q9. What will be needed in terms of investment for infrastructure, to realize the vision of future weather and climate forecast? • Q10. What would be optimal mechanisms to support developing countries through the advanced future forecasting systems? • Q11. Human factor – how to develop the needed experts both in NEWP and in the forecast services; how the “weather forecaster” profession will be changed in general? • Q12. Based on your views on the impact of these development to the way NMHSs will be organized in the future, your advice to NMHSs – where to put effort and how to avoid unjustified investments? • Q13. Quality of forecasts from different sources – how to validate and inform the user? • Q14. How do you foresee the evolving roles of public, private and academic stakeholders in the future forecasting enterprise? • Q15. Ethics: What to do and what to avoid in the relationship between the stakeholders? Goal 1: Customised impact-based forecasts and warnings The world shall be better served by more localised and timely information for cities and regional areas, as per specialized socio-economic needs. Higher resolution, customised and 2 | Page accurate forecasts and their optimised connection with decision support is critical, especially during high impact weather. • Relevant questions: Q1, Q3, Q4, Q7, Q8, Q9, Q10, Q11, Q12, Q13, Q14, Q15 Goal 2: Reliable and trusted forecasts The improved quality and quantity of observational data is a prerequisite to more precise, accurate and reliable information for expanded service to society. • Relevant questions: Q1, Q3, Q5, Q6, Q9, Q10, Q11, Q12, Q13, Q14, Q15 Goal 3: An Earth system prediction capability The next generation Numerical Environmental and Weather-climate Prediction (NEWP) system, with fully integrated atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice and hydrology models, shall be able to deliver a wider breadth of information-rich data in a fully consistent manner. • Relevant questions: Q1, Q5, Q6, Q9, Q10, Q11, Q12, Q13, Q14, Q15 Goal 4: Seamless weather and climate
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