NACo Policy Report
Matthew Chase, Executive Director ^ May 2014 "Are you an optimist or pessimist. It depends on the context. If you're pouring water, the glass is half full. If you're drinking, it's half empty." Exercise sound ONE NACo stewardship of NACo's financial, 5 Strategic intellectual and Blueprint: human resources Enhance the public's Core Building Blocks 4 understanding of county government
Provide counties! with high-quality 3 services for employees, residents and the public
Empower county 2 leaders with new skills, resources and ideas
Promote sound 1 public policies that advance the interests of America's counties HOW DO WE WANT TO BE POSITIONED FOR THE FUTURE?
• Tell our story
• Prepare our members
• Put our positions into context of county responsibilities and political environment
• Match facts and data with rhetoric and policies
• Be present and engage at all phases of policymaking process
• Be political, not partisan
7
NATIONAL POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
• Economic Uncertainty! • Metro Growth! • Purple Nation! • Federal Debt and Deficits! • Redistricting & Money = Decline of the Political Center
SOURCE: NATIONAL JOURNAL
2014 Senate Election Preview
Current Senate Breakdown
Number of Senate seats in the 113th Congress, by party
Democrats Republicans
50
55 45
* Includes two Independents, Angus King (I-Maine) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who caucus with the Democrats
Source: The Cook Political Report. 2014 Senate Election Preview Senate 2014 Map April 24, 2014
OR: Monica Wehby (R) airs a NH: Sen. John McCain well-received biographical ad, (R-AZ) announces his but Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) support for former Sen. releases a poll showing him Scott Brown (R) above 50% in support WA ME MT ND VT KY: Secretary of State Alison OR MN Lundergan Grimes (D) IA: The Des Moines Register NH ID SD NY announces her support of publishes a piece documenting WI MA WY MI the Keystone XL pipeline the investments of Mark Jacobs CT RI IA PA (R)! NE NJ NV OH DE DC ! UT IL IN WV CA CO ! VA MD NC: Republican candidates KS MO CO: A Quinnipiac poll shows KY hold the second of three Sen. Mark Udall (D) at 45%, NC debates in advance of the TN Rep. Cory Gardner (R) at 44% AZ OK May 6th primary NM AR SC
MS AL GA TX LA
AK FL HI
LA: A NYT/Kaiser poll shows Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) with a AK: Sen. Mark Begich (D) OK: A Public Opinion Strategies AR: The Government Integrity 49% job approval rating releases ad slamming the poll, paid for by a group supporting Fund Super PAC purchases Administration for its record on oil T.W. Shannon (R) shows him $1.5 in ads supporting Rep. drilling leading the GOP primary Tom Cotton (R)
Source: National Journal Hotline 2014 Senate Election Preview
The Six-Year Itch The president’s party fares poorly in second-term midterm elections
Change in congressional party makeup after midterm elections during president’s second term
Year President Party Pres. Party Seat Change: House Pres. Party Seat Change: Senate
2006 G.W. Bush Republican -30 -6
1998 Clinton Democrat +5 0
1986 Reagan Republican -5 -8
1974 Nixon/Ford Republican -48 -4
1966 Kennedy/Johnson Democrat -48 -4
1958 Eisenhower Republican -48 -12
Average -29 -6
Analysis The President’s party has been hammered in the House and/or Senate in five of the last six “six-year itch” elections since World War II
Source: 2008 Vital Statistics on Congress. Prepared by National Journal. 2014 US House Election Preview Federal Landscape:! U.S. House of Representatives 2014 US House Election Preview
Democrats must win every Solid Democrat, Likely Democrat, Lean Democrat, Toss-Up, and 15 out of 17 Lean Republican districts to take back the House. National Political Landscape
Share of Self-Described Independents Grows at Expense of Both Parties
0.5
Republican Independent Democrat 40% 0.425 Independents
0.35 30.9% Democrats
0.275 27.7% Republicans
0.2 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Gallup.com, Nov. 18, 2012.
"Alexander Hamilton started the U.S. Treasury with nothing, and that was the closest we've ever been to being even."
– WILL ROGERS FEDERAL POLICY AGENDA Sample Only
MAJOR TAX EXEMPTIONS AND EXPENDITURES THE IMPACT OF CHANGING THE TAX-EXEMPT STATUS OF MUNICIPAL BONDS
A CRITICAL ROLE IN LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE, JOBS AND EVERYDAY LIFE
Current Market = ! Over 1.5 million municipal bonds outstanding, ! totaling more than $3.7 trillion
Potential Cost to
Washington Taxpayers:
$49.5 billion total =
$5.2 billion cap &
$14.9 billion repeal
Potential Cost to
Washington Taxpayers:
$49.5 billion total =
$5.2 billion cap &
$14.9 billion repeal FEDERAL HIGHWAY TRUST FUND HEADED FOR INSOLVENCY
38 MEMBER ENGAGEMENT REMAINS THE BURNING IMPERATIVE!
! 10 NACO POLICY STEERING COMMITTEES ! ! • AGRICULTURE AND RURAL AFFAIRS ! • COMMUNITY, ECONOMIC & WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT ! • ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY AND LAND USE ! • FINANCE, PENSIONS & INTERGOVERNMENTAL AFFAIRS ! • HEALTH ! • HUMAN SERVICES & EDUCATION ! • JUSTICE & PUBLIC SAFETY ! • PUBLIC LANDS ! • TELECOMMUNICATIONS & TECHNOLOGY More than 1200 county elected and ! appointed officials serve on • TRANSPORTATION NACo's policy steering committees !
NACo Annual Conference! July 11-14, 2014 - Orleans Parish, LA! linkedin.com/ @NACoTweets fb.com/NACoDC in/NACoDC
25 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. ▲ Suite 500 ▲ Washington, D.C. 20001 www.naco.org
NACo was named one of nine remarkable associations in the United States after a four-year study conducted by the American Society of Association Executives and The Center for Association Leadership because of its commitment to members and purpose.