Omnibus August 2020 Release2

2024 GOP Primary Verified Voter Omnibus Survey N=1,000 Likely Electorate August 14–August 18, 2020 X1 Meet the Likely Electorate We know that on Election Day, those who turn out to vote won't necessarily look like the pool of all registered voters. Some voters are more likely to turn out than others, and polling should reflect that reality. But not everyone who shows up to vote on Election Day is a "likely voter," and often times, pollsters' methods of excluding "unlikely voters" can leave out those who are becoming newly activated. That's why we at Echelon Insights are making the switch, six months out from Election Day, not to a "likely voter" sample which arbitrarily excludes certain voters, but to our "Likely Electorate" (LE) frame, which accounts for voter turnout probability in how we weight our national survey. We surveyed N = 1,000 registered voters in the Likely Electorate online from May 18 - May 20, 2020 using a voter file-matched sample as part of our monthly Verified Voter Omnibus tracking survey of the 2020 political environment. The sample was weighted to known characteristics of the 2020 “Likely Electorate” population, a frame which takes into account demographic and turnout characteristics of the 2020 electorate. Pence Leads Field of Potential 2024 Candidates Q. Which candidate would you be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in 2024? (Asked of GOP & Lean-GOP voters) Mike Pence 26% Donald Trump Jr. 12% Nikki Haley 7% The following Marco Rubio 5% candidates were Ted Cruz 4% tested but received John Kasich 4% under 0.5% vote Lindsey Graham 2% share: Tucker Carlson 2% Dan Crenshaw 2% Josh Hawley Ben Sasse Tom Cotton 2% Elise Stefanik Tim Scott 1% Larry Hogan 1% Someone else 3% Unsure 29% 3 Generational Divide Between Pence and Trump Jr. Support Q. Which candidate would you be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in 2024? (Asked of GOP & Lean-GOP voters) TOTAL UNDER 50 50+ Mike Pence 26% 16% 32% Donald Trump Jr 12% 19% 8% Nikki Haley 7% 7% 6% Marco Rubio 5% 5% 5% Ted Cruz 4% 3% 5% John Kasich 4% 1% 5% Dan Crenshaw 2% 0% 3% Lindsey Graham 2% 1% 2% Tom Cotton 2% 2% 2% Tucker Carlson 2% 1% 2% Tim Scott 1% 1% 2% Larry Hogan 1% 1% 0% Unsure 29% 40% 23% 4 Nearly One-Fifth of Trump Supporters Back Trump Jr. Q. Which candidate would you be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in 2024? (Asked of GOP & Lean-GOP voters) TOTAL SUPPORTS TRUMP SUPPORTS THE PARTY Mike Pence 26% 34% 25% Donald Trump Jr 12% 18% 7% Nikki Haley 7% 6% 7% Marco Rubio 5% 3% 6% Ted Cruz 4% 3% 6% John Kasich 4% 0% 7% Dan Crenshaw 2% 0% 4% Lindsey Graham 2% 1% 3% Tom Cotton 2% 3% 1% Tucker Carlson 2% 2% 3% Tim Scott 1% 1% 2% Larry Hogan 1% 1% 0% Unsure 29% 24% 27% 5 Few Gender Differences Though More Women Unsure Q. Which candidate would you be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in 2024? (Asked of GOP & Lean-GOP voters) TOTAL MEN WOMEN Mike Pence 26% 28% 24% Donald Trump Jr 12% 10% 14% Nikki Haley 7% 10% 4% Marco Rubio 5% 4% 6% Ted Cruz 4% 4% 4% John Kasich 4% 6% 2% Dan Crenshaw 2% 3% 1% Lindsey Graham 2% 3% 1% Tom Cotton 2% 3% 1% Tucker Carlson 2% 2% 2% Tim Scott 1% 1% 2% Larry Hogan 1% 1% Unsure 29% 22% 36% 6 2024 Primary Demographic Breakdown All Republicans & Supports Supports the Has a Does not have a Under 50 50 and Older Republican-Leaners Trump Republican Party Bachelor’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree (N=423) (N=198) (N=160) (N=155) (N=268) (N=162) (N=262) 100% of sample 47% of sample 38% of sample 37% of sample 63% of sample 38% of sample 62% of sample Pence 26% 34% 25% 19% 30% 16% 32% Trump Jr. 12% 18% 7% 5% 16% 19% 8% Haley 7% 6% 7% 12% 4% 7% 6% Rubio 5% 3% 6% 8% 3% 5% 5% Cruz 4% 3% 6% 3% 5% 3% 5% Kasich 4% *% 7% 6% 2% 1% 5% 7 Your questions answered by real voters Beyond our own public releases, the Verified Voter Omnibus is a resource companies and organizations can use to answer mission-critical questions through add-on questions to the monthly survey. It's the perfect tool for tracking a few core questions over time or gathering that one bit of crucial public opinion data you need right now. By adding on to the Verified Voter Omnibus, you’ll receive: Hands-on assistance with drafting your questions Full topline and crosstabs with 2020 election questions included A customized slide deck with your results Contact [email protected] for more information. .

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