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TRUMP LEADS in EARLY 2024 NH GOP NOMINATION RACE but OVERALL REMAINS UNPOPULAR in NH By: Sean P

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July 21, 2021 TRUMP LEADS IN EARLY 2024 NH GOP NOMINATION RACE BUT OVERALL REMAINS UNPOPULAR IN NH By: Sean P. McKinley, M.A. [email protected] Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603-862-2226 Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. cola.unh.edu/unh-survey-center DURHAM, NH - Nearly half of likely 2024 Republican primary voters in New Hampshire currently support former President Donald Trump for the 2024 presiden al nomina on and a majority say Trump was one of the best presidents in history. However, Trump's favorability among Granite Staters overall has fallen and most don't want him to run again. Florida Governor Ron DeSan s has the second highest support for 2024. These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. One thousand seven hundred and ninety-four (1,794) Granite State Panel members completed the survey online between July 15 and July 19, 2021. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2.3 percent. Included in the sample were 770 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 3.5 percent). Data were weighted by respondent sex, age, educa on, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as party registra on levels provided by the NH Secretary of State and 2020 elec on results in NH. Granite State Panel members are recruited from randomly-selected landline and cell phone numbers across New Hampshire and surveys are sent periodically to panel members. 2024 New Hampshire Republican Presiden al Primary Since the 2020 elec on, Republicans have been posi oning themselves for the GOP nomina on in 2024. The New Hampshire Primary has historically been one of the most important events in determining who the next nominee will be. When asked an open-ended ques on about whom they will vote for in the 2024 primary, former President Donald Trump is named by nearly half (49%) of likely Republican voters, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSan s (18%), Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (5%), former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (3%), former Vice President Mike Pence (1%), Massachuse s Governor Charlie Baker (1%), Utah Senator Mi Romney (1%), Ohio Representa ve Jim Jordan (1%), and Wyoming Representa ve Liz Cheney (1%). Fi een percent of likely Republican primary voters could not name a candidate. “While Trump is currently the first choice of New Hampshire Republicans, it is important to remember that this is based largely on name recogni on” said Andrew Smith, Director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. “Past party nominees are almost always the early front runner in nomina on contests, but as other candidates begin to actually campaign, support for the candidate who lost the last elec on drops.” Preferred Candidate - Republican 2024 Presiden al Nomina on - Open-Ended - July 2021 Colin Powell Vermin Supreme Jon Huntsman Joe Biden Liz Cheney Brian Kemp Ben Sasse Admiral William McRaven Geoff Duncan Dan Crenshaw Anyone but Donald Trump Jim JordanJohn Kasich Condoleeza Rice Don't know Tom Cotton Justin Amash Mitt Romney Adam Kinzinger Mike Pence Chris Sununu Marco Rubio Kamala Harris Rand Paul Tim Scott Donald Trump Ted Cruz Ron Paul Charlie Baker Josh Hawley Kristi Noem Ted Nugent John McCain Nikki Haley Amy Klobuchar Mike Pompeo Depends Ron DeSantis * We ask that this copyrighted informa on be referred to as the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. When provided a list of Republicans who are thought to be considering running for the 2024 Republican nomina on, 47% of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters say they will vote for Trump, 19% support DeSan s, 6% support Haley, 5% support Pence, 2% support South Dakota Governor Kris Noem, 2% support Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and less than 1% each support Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, Arkansas Senator Tom Co on, or Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Another 9% support another candidate while 10% are unsure. Preferred Candidate - Republican 2024 Presiden al Nomina on - July 2021 Donald Trump 47% Ron DeSantis 19% Nikki Haley 6% Mike Pence 5% Kristi Noem 2% Ted Cruz 2% Josh Hawley 0% Tom Cotton 0% Mike Pompeo 0% Other 9% Don't know 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% When asked for their second choice, 39% of likely Republican primary voters support DeSan s, 7% support Trump, 6% each support Pence or Cruz, 5% support Noem, 4% each support Pompeo, Co on, or Haley, and less than 1% would support Hawley. Three percent would support another candidate, 2% say they don't have a second choice, and 18% don't know or are unsure. Among those who say their first choice would be Trump, half (50%) say their second choice would be DeSan s, while 11% say their second choice is Pence and 8% say their second choice is Cruz. Second Choice - Republican 2024 Presiden al Nomina on - July 2021 Ron DeSantis 39% Donald Trump 7% Mike Pence 6% Ted Cruz 6% Kristi Noem 5% Mike Pompeo 4% Tom Cotton 4% Nikki Haley 4% Josh Hawley 0% Other 3% No second choice 2% Don't know 18% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% While Trump is popular among many New Hampshire Republicans, only one-third (33%) of all Granite Staters say they want him to run for President in 2024, two-thirds (66%) don't want him to run in 2024, and 2% are unsure. Sixty-nine percent of Republicans want Trump to run again in 2024, a new high, but only 18% of Independents and 1% of Democrats feel this way. Would Like to See Trump Run for President Again in 2024 100% 80% 69% 69% 70% 66% 66% 60% 40% 31% 33% 25% 28% 27% 20% 5% 3% 3% 3% 0% 2% Jan 2021 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Definitely or probably Definitely not or probably not Don't know/Not sure When asked to compare Trump to previous presidents, 53% say he was one of the worst presidents in history and 3% say he was below average. Only 24% of Granite Staters say that he was one of the best presidents in American history and 15% say he was above average, while 6% say he was average. More than half of Republicans (53%) believe Trump was one of the best presidents in history but a slim majority of Independents (54%) and nearly all Democrats (98%) say he was one of the worst presidents. Trump Compared to Other Presidents - July 2021 One of the best Presidents 24% Above average 15% Average 6% Below average 3% One of the worst 53% Presidents Don't know/Not sure 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Trump con nues to be seen unfavorably in New Hampshire. Only 33% have a favorable opinion of Trump, 59% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 8% neutral, and less than 1% are unsure. Trump's net favorability ra ng, the percentage who have a favorable opinion minus the percentage with an unfavorable opinion, is -26, its lowest point since October 2017. Trump is popular among Republicans (+51 net favorability ra ng), but is unpopular among Independents (-42) and very unpopular among Democrats (-99). Among likely Republican primary voters, Trump's net favorability ra ng is +46. Favorability - Donald Trump (R) 100% 80% 75% 59% 60% 40% 33% 20% 21% 4% 0% 0% 80%% Mar 2016 Nov 2016 Jul 2017 Mar 2018 Nov 2018 Jul 2019 Mar 2020 Nov 2020 Jul 2021 Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Don't know enough about to say Other poten al 2024 Republican presiden al candidates are also largely unpopular in New Hampshire overall. DeSan s (-11 net favorability ra ng), Noem (-14), Haley (-15), and Co on (-17) are somewhat unpopular in the state, while Hawley (-27), Pompeo (-32), Cruz (-38), and Pence (-47) are even less popular. Among likely Republican primary voters however, DeSan s (+64) is popular, while Co on (+23), Noem (+22), Haley (+21), and Cruz (+18) are somewhat popular. Hawley (+11) and Pompeo (+9) are less popular among Republican primary voters, while they are divided in their opinion on Pence (+0). Other Possible Candidates Favorability Ron DeSantis 33% 7% 44% 16% Ted Cruz 23% 15% 60% Mike Pence 17% 18% 64% Nikki Haley 16% 18% 31% 34% Tom Cotton 16% 12% 32% 40% Kristi Noem 16% 10% 29% 45% Mike Pompeo 12% 17% 45% 27% Josh Hawley 10% 13% 37% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Don't know enough about to say Granite State Poll Methodology These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. One thousand seven hundred and ninety-four (1,794) Granite State Panel members completed the survey online between July 15 and July 19, 2021. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2.3 percent. Included in the sample were 770 likely 2024 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 3.5 percent). These MSE's have not been adjusted for design effect. The response rate for the July 2021 Granite State Poll is 28%. The design effect for the survey is 2.9%. Data were weighted by respondent sex, age, educa on, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S.
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