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Long-Distance Passenger Travel Demand Model Framework Final Report

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Long-Distance Passenger Travel Demand Model Framework Final Report Federal Highway Administration Foundational Knowledge to Support a Long-Distance Passenger Travel Demand Modeling Framework Part A: Final Report Exploratory Advanced Research Program DTFH61-10-R-00036 March 2015 Notice This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the use of the information contained in this document. The U.S. Government does not endorse products or manufacturers. Trademarks or manufacturers’ names appear in this report only because they are considered essential to the objective of the document. Quality Assurance Statement The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) provides high-quality information to serve Government, industry, and the public in a manner that promotes public understanding. Standards and policies are used to ensure and maximize the quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity of its information. FHWA periodically reviews quality issues and adjusts its programs and processes to ensure continuous quality improvement. Form DOT F1700.7 (8-72) 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. FHWA-*********** 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date March 2015 Foundational Knowledge to Support a Long-Distance Passenger Travel Demand Modeling Framework 6. Performing Organization Code: 7. Author(s): 8. Performing Organization Report No. Maren Outwater, Mark Bradley, Nazneen Ferdous, (RSG) Ram Pendyala, Venu Garikapati (Arizona State University) Chandra Bhat, Subodh Dubey (University of Texas at Austin) Jeff LaMondia (Auburn University) Stephane Hess, Andrew Daly (University of Leeds) 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Resource Systems Group, Inc. 55 Railroad Row, White River Junction, VT 05001 11. Contract or Grant No. DTFH61-10-R-00036 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration 14. Sponsoring Agency Code Washington, DC 20590 15. Supplementary Notes 16. Abstract Intercity travel is a topic of increasing importance in the United States, with many states and the federal government faced with the challenge of improving mobility and reducing impacts for these travelers. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has invested in several studies to better understand intercity travel; this study is an extension of that interest, focused on exploratory research to develop a long-distance passenger travel demand model framework. The modeling framework is a tour-based microsimulation model of annual long-distance passenger travel for all households in the United States. The models schedule travel across one full year to capture business travel (e.g., conferences, meetings, and combined business/leisure) and leisure travel (e.g., visiting friends and family, personal business and shopping, relaxation, sight-seeing, outdoor recreation, and entertainment). The models are multimodal (i.e., auto, rail, bus, and air) and based on national networks for each mode to provide opportunities for evaluation of intercity transportation investments or testing national economic, environmental and pricing policies. Advanced modeling methods were tested for the scheduling, time-use, activity-participation, and joint-mode and destination models. Methods included multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) for the scheduling models and cross nested logit (NL) choice for the joint mode and destination models. The modeling framework was demonstrated, with application software that simulates long-distance travel for all households in the United States using an initial set of advanced modeling methods. This final report is an overview of the exploratory research over three years. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Long-Distance; National Passenger Models; No restrictions. This document is available to the public through the National Technical Intercity Travel; Scheduling Models; Joint Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161. Mode and Destination; MDCEV; Cross- Nested Logit Choice 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 254 i TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 3 1.1 Objectives of the Program ............................................................................................. 3 National Travel Modeling ....................................................................................................... 4 Infrastructure Investment Decisions ....................................................................................... 5 Policy Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 5 Statewide Travel Modeling ..................................................................................................... 6 Interstate Travel ...................................................................................................................... 6 Intrastate Travel ...................................................................................................................... 7 Megaregion Travel Modeling ................................................................................................. 7 1.2 Contents of the Report ................................................................................................... 7 CHAPTER 2. SUMMARY OF EXPERIENCE IN THE UNITED STATES AND INTERNATIONALLY ................................................................................................................. 9 2.1 Definitions and Context ................................................................................................. 9 2.2 Model Structures and Segmentation .......................................................................... 10 2.3 Approach to Forecasting ............................................................................................. 11 2.4 Data Sources ................................................................................................................. 12 2.5 Other Issues .................................................................................................................. 12 2.6 Summary ....................................................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 3. DATA SOURCES .......................................................................................... 21 3.1 Zone Systems ................................................................................................................ 21 Zone System Creation ........................................................................................................... 21 Zone Connectors ................................................................................................................... 27 iii 3.2 Modal Networks and Level of Service ........................................................................ 28 Road System ......................................................................................................................... 28 Rail System ........................................................................................................................... 30 Air System ............................................................................................................................ 45 Bus System............................................................................................................................ 48 3.3 Socioeconomic Data...................................................................................................... 51 Person and Household Characteristics .................................................................................. 51 Employment Data ................................................................................................................. 53 3.4 Land-Use Data .............................................................................................................. 55 3.5 Household Surveys ....................................................................................................... 56 1995 American Travel Survey (ATS) ................................................................................... 56 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)................................................................ 57 2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) ............................................................. 57 2010 Colorado Front Range Travel Survey .......................................................................... 58 2003 Ohio Household Travel Survey ................................................................................... 58 Content of the Long-Distance Household Travel Survey Datasets ...................................... 58 Data Preparation.................................................................................................................... 61 Data Used for Model Estimation .......................................................................................... 62 CHAPTER 4. INTEGRATED MODELING SYSTEM ..................................................... 65 4.1 Overview ......................................................................................................................
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