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Guidelines for Ranking Uncertainties in Atmospheric Dispersion

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Guidelines for Ranking Uncertainties in Atmospheric Dispersion Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Oct 07, 2021 Guidelines for ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion Wellings, J.; Bedwell, P.; Leadbetter, S.; Tomas, J.; Andronopoulos, S.; Korsakissok, I.; Périllat, R.; Almeida, Mathieu; Geertsema, G.; de Vries, H. Total number of authors: 18 Published in: Guidelines ranking uncertainties for atmospheric dispersion Publication date: 2018 Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link back to DTU Orbit Citation (APA): Wellings, J., Bedwell, P., Leadbetter, S., Tomas, J., Andronopoulos, S., Korsakissok, I., Périllat, R., Almeida, M., Geertsema, G., de Vries, H., Klein, H., Hamburger, T., Pázmándi, T., Szántó, P., Rudas, C., Sogachev, A., Davis, N., & Twenhöfel, C. (2018). Guidelines for ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion. In Guidelines ranking uncertainties for atmospheric dispersion (pp. 105-125). European joint programme for the integration of radiation protection research. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Ref. Ares(2018)1172146 - 02/03/2018 This project has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014-2018 under grant agreement No 662287.. EJP-CONCERT European Joint Programme for the Integration of Radiation Protection Research H2020 – 662287 D 9.1 - Guidelines ranking uncertainties for atmospheric dispersion Lead Author(s): A. Mathieu, I. Korsakissok With contributions from: CONFIDENCE WP1 members Reviewer(s): CONCERT coordination team Work package / Task WP 9.1 T 9.1.1 Deliverable nature: Report Dissemination level: (Confidentiality) Public Contractual delivery date: February 2018 Actual delivery date: February 2018 Version: V1 Total number of pages: 125 Keywords: CONFIDENCE, atmospheric dispersion model, source term, uncertainty, range, distribution Approved by the coordinator: M33 Submitted to EC by the coordinator: M33 Disclaimer: The information and views set out in this report are those of the author(s). The European Commission may not be held responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained therein. Deliverable D9.1 Abstract In the event of an accidental release of radionuclides into the atmosphere, dispersion calculations would be used to model the consequences and to assist in determining appropriate countermeasures. Environmental contamination depends on the characteristics of the releases, the trajectory of the radioactive plumes and the deposition episodes. The weather conditions (wind, atmospheric stability, etc.) determine the transport of the radioactive plume in the atmosphere, as well as its vertical and horizontal extension. The plumes are depleted during transport by dilution in the atmosphere and deposition processes. Dry deposition occurs in the absence of precipitation, whereas wet deposition is the dominant process during rainfall or snowfall episodes. The behaviour of the radionuclides in the atmosphere depends on whether they are in gaseous or particulate form, their size and their reactivity. These elements also influence their behaviour in relation to the deposition processes, as well as their absorption and their harmfulness to the human body. The composition of the releases and the characteristics of the radionuclides vary during the release phase according to the facility events that caused them. Simulations are subject to significant uncertainties related to the source, to the meteorological conditions, those due to the atmospheric dispersion models and radiological assessment models. The identification and description of source term and meteorological uncertainties associated with the atmospheric dispersion model-specific uncertainties will enable a comprehensive assessment of the nature and impact of the atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) output uncertainties. It is intended that such uncertainty ranges and distributions will be used subsequently in the propagation of uncertainties through the chain of atmospheric dispersion and radiological assessment models for both historical (for example the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant) and hypothetical scenarios, to better understand the effect on model output, and thereby appraise the impact on decision making in the context of an emergency response. This document provides guidelines describing uncertainties related to the meteorological conditions, related to the source and related to the atmospheric dispersion models. The first chapter looks at meteorological ensembles as a source of information on meteorological uncertainty for dispersion models. The second chapter questions the use of meteorological measurements to reduce uncertainty. The third chapter provides guidelines describing uncertainties related to the source. The fourth chapter presents a literature review to evaluate the range and distribution of atmospheric dispersion model-specific input parameter uncertainties. The last chapter provides Guidelines for ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion. <End of abstract> page 3 of 125 Deliverable D9.1 Contents D 9.1.1 - Using Ensemble Meteorological Forecasts to Represent Meteorological Uncertainty in Dispersion Models ................................................................................................................................... 5 D 9.1.2 - Using meteorological measurements to reduce uncertainty ................................................. 27 D 9.1.3 - Guidelines describing source term uncertainties ................................................................... 42 D 9.1.4 - Guidelines detailing the range and distribution of atmospheric dispersion model input parameter uncertainties ....................................................................................................................... 75 D 9.1.5 - Guidelines for ranking uncertainties in atmospheric dispersion .......................................... 105 page 4 of 125 Deliverable D9.1 D 9.1.1 - Using Ensemble Meteorological Forecasts to Represent Meteorological Uncertainty in Dispersion Models Lead Author: Susan J. Leadbetter With contributions from: S. Andronopoulos, P. Bedwell, G. Geertsema, A. R. Jones, I. Korsakissok, J. Tomas, H. de Vries Reviewer(s): WP1 members Abstract There are a number of sources of uncertainty in the dispersion model prediction, including uncertainty about the source term information, intrinsic uncertainty in the dispersion model and uncertainty in the driving meteorology. Here, the focus is on the impact of the uncertainty in the driving meteorology on the uncertainty in the dispersion model prediction. Part of the aim of work package 1 of the CONFIDENCE project is to provide an assessment of the ability of the ensemble weather prediction systems to provide sufficient uncertainty information for dispersion modelling. The presented review looks at meteorological ensembles as a source of information on meteorological uncertainty for dispersion models. The construction of the ensembles, their verification and examples of their use with dispersion models are explored. <End of abstract> page 5 of 125 Deliverable D9.1 Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Introduction to Meteorological Ensembles ............................................................................................. 8 Uncertainty in Meteorological Forecasts ............................................................................................ 8 Verification of Meteorological Ensembles ............................................................................................ 11 Verification Techniques ..................................................................................................................... 11 How well do ensembles verify? ......................................................................................................... 13 Variables of Interest to Dispersion Modelling ................................................................................... 15 How are the variables of interest to dispersion modelling verified? ................................................ 17 Ensemble Modelling with Dispersion Models ....................................................................................... 17 Use of Ensemble Meteorology with Dispersion Models ................................................................... 17 Other Approaches to Meteorological Uncertainty ........................................................................... 20 Quantification and presentation of dispersion forecast uncertainties ............................................. 20 Summary ..............................................................................................................................................
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