Methodology for Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency for New Jersey Streams
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Prepared in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Methodology for Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency for New Jersey Streams Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5167 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey v2.0 Cover. Photo on cover shows the April 2007 flood event at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 01378500, Hackensack River at New Milford, New Jersey. (Photograph by Blaine T. White, U.S. Geological Survey) Methodology for Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency for New Jersey Streams By Kara M. Watson and Robert D. Schopp Prepared in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5167 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2009 Revised: May 2010 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Suggested citation: Watson, K.M., and Schopp, R.D., 2009, Methodology for estimation of flood magnitude and frequency for New Jersey streams: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5167, 51 p. iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................2 Description of the Study Area ............................................................................................................2 Previous Investigations........................................................................................................................2 Methods of Study .........................................................................................................................................11 Peak-Flow Data ...................................................................................................................................12 Trend Analysis .....................................................................................................................................12 Generalized Skew Coefficients ........................................................................................................15 Basin Characteristics Used in Regression Equation Development ...........................................18 Explanatory Variable Selection Methods ..............................................................................18 Land Use .............................................................................................................................26 Main Channel Length .......................................................................................................26 Basin Slope 10–85 Method ..............................................................................................26 Population Density ............................................................................................................27 Development of Flood-Frequency Regression Equations .....................................................................27 Regression Analysis and Resultant Equations .......................................................................................28 Accuracy of the Flood-Frequency Regression Equations ...........................................................29 Limitations of Regression Equations ...............................................................................................29 Flood Frequency and Magnitude at Gaged Sites ...................................................................................29 Estimation of Flood Frequency and Magnitude at Ungaged Sites ......................................................30 Estimation of Flood Frequency and Magnitude for an Ungaged Site Upstream or Downstream from a Gaged Site ...........................................................................................................................30 Estimation of Flood Frequency and Magnitude for a Site Between Gaged Sites .............................32 StreamStats ..................................................................................................................................................33 Summary........................................................................................................................................................35 Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................35 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................35 Appendix 1. Results of skew analysis for 119 streamflow-gaging stations in New Jersey and surrounding States .............................................................................................................40 Appendix 2. Flood-frequency estimates computed from observed streamflow-gaging-station data, estimates predicted from regression equations, and a weighted average for streamflow-gaging stations ......................................................................................................43 iv Figures 1–2. Map showing— 1. Study area and physiographic provinces in New Jersey and surrounding States .....................................................................................................................................3 2. Location of flood-frequency regions and streamflow-gaging stations in New Jersey and surrounding States for which flood-frequency estimates were computed ..................................................................................................................13 3. Graph showing distribution of streamflow-gaging stations used for the flood- frequency analysis, by drainage-basin area ..........................................................................14 4. Map showing streamflow-gaging stations in New Jersey and surrounding States with 25 or more years of record used for the skew study ...................................................17 5. Schematic diagram showing a drainage basin, the main channel of a stream, and the points used to compute the stream slope using the basin slope 10–85 method .......26 6. Map showing highly regulated stream reaches on the Hackensack, Rockaway, Wanaque, and Pequannock Rivers and tidal areas excluded from basin delineation and statistics estimation on the StreamStats Web site .......................................................34 Tables 1. Streamflow-gaging stations in New Jersey and surrounding States for which streamflow statistics were computed. ......................................................................................4 2. Number of streamflow-gaging stations with records included in the regression analysis of New Jersey streams, by flood-frequency region and State ...........................12 3. Values of basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations in New Jersey and surrounding States used in the regression analysis. ....................................................19 4. Ranges of values for basin characteristics used to develop the flood-frequency regression equations .................................................................................................................25 5. Values for the regional constant coefficent (KTR) for the peak-flow regression equations ......................................................................................................................................29 6. Accuracy of peak-flow discharges predicted using flood-frequency regression equations for New Jersey .........................................................................................................29 7. Value of exponent, b, for flood-frequency regions in New Jersey used in regional regression analysis ....................................................................................................................31 v Conversion Factors and Abbreviations Multiply By To obtain Length inch (in.) 2.54 centimeter (cm) inch (in.) 25.4 millimeter (mm) foot (ft) 0.3048 meter (m) mile (mi) 1.609 kilometer (km) Area square mile (mi2) 259.0 hectare (ha) square mile (mi2) 2.590 square kilometer (km2) Flow rate cubic foot per second (ft3/s) 0.02832 cubic meter per second (m3/s) Hydraulic gradient foot per mile (ft/mi) 0.1894 meter per kilometer (m/km) Vertical coordinate information is referenced